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Predicting Sport Results BY HANNES JOHANSSON & JAMES HALL

Predicting Sport Results - Lunds tekniska högskolafileadmin.cs.lth.se/cs/Education/EDAN50/2014/Johansson... · 2014. 5. 23. · Predicting Sport Results BY HANNES JOHANSSON & JAMES

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  • Predicting Sport ResultsBY HANNES JOHANSSON & JAMES HALL

  • Our Project Idea

  • Available Data

  • Artificial Neural Networks• Inspired by biology • Human brains have

    ~85,000,000,000 neurons

  • Neural Net Model

    O1I2

    I3

    I4

    O2

    I1

    Input Layer Hidden Layer Output Layer

  • Gradient Descent

  • Neural Net Model

    O1I2

    I3

    I4

    O2

    I1

    Input Layer Hidden Layer Output Layer

  • Trained Neural Net

    O1I2

    I3

    I4

    O2

    I1

    Input Layer Hidden Layer Output Layer

  • Programming Environment• Neuroph framework • MySQL database • Java 1.8 • 15 classes across 3 packages

  • What We’re Predicting

    • Parallel neural nets • Number of goals • Outputs are combined

  • Our Neural Nets

    Neural Net Goals??

    ?

  • Evaluation

    • Number of incorrect goals • Exact predictions • Winner/loser • Threshold

    Inconclusive

    Team A Team B

  • Our Results

    • Accuracy goes from 55% to 60%

    • Inconclusive goes from 25% to 80%

    • Last-Game-Difference input

    %

    0

    25

    50

    75

    100

    Threshold0.5 1.0 2.0

    Max Accuracy Inconclusive

  • Possible Improvements

    • More inputs • More data • Multiple passes • Other learning methods