Predicting Sea Level Rise Impacts on Hawaii’s Anchialine Pool Ecosystems

Lisa MarrackUC Berkeley

Ala Kahakai National Historical Park

Sea Level Rise

Sea level is expected to rise between 0.5 to 1.6m by 2100 (IPCC 2007; Vermeer&Rahmstorf 2009)

Observed

Water Withdrawal and Non-Point Source Pollution

http:/www.yfrog.com/gzt4wyrj

• Coastal inundation• Storm run up• Habitat shifts

Ali’i Drive, Kona, HI

March 11, 2011

Predicted Impacts

Figure by: Jonathan D. Craft, Auburn University

Anchialine Pools

Scott Santos

The Spirit of Kaloko-HonokohauCultural and Natural Resources

Megalagrion xanthomelas Metabetaeus lohena & Halocaridina rubra

Questions

• What coastal features will be inundated by 2100 along the west coast of Hawaii due to a 1 meter sea level rise?

• Where will we expect new anchialine pool habitats to emerge within the arid coastline of west Hawaii?

Questions

DATA

FEMA – Lidar 2006

• Average point distance is 3 ft

• 1074 tiles on Big Island

• 500,000 bare earth pts /tile

• ± 0.51 ft vertical accuracy (95% CI)

Elevation Data

Kaloko Honokohau National Historical Park

Geospatial anchialine pool data -abiotic and biotic (Marrack & Beavers 2009)

High Tide

2.28ft

Sea Level Rise (1 m)

3.28 ft

(5.57 ft)

Sea Level Rise + High Tide

5.57 ft

(5.57 ft)

Where will we expect new anchialine pool habitats to emerge?

Inundation of pools by 2100

81% of 194 current pools will be inundated by 1 m SLR at High Tide

Inundation of pools by 2100

(5.57 ft)

Future and Present Pools

(5.57 ft)

• Include archaeological features, wetlands, fishponds

• Expand analysis within Ala Kahakai NHP corridor

• Make products available to researchers, managers, and planners

What next?

1) What are the distribution and dispersal patterns of invasive M. lar in anchialine pools in the State of Hawaii?

- population genetics of M. lar populations - stream and anchialine pools Hawaii, Guam, French Polynesia

2) What are the relative and combined impacts of M lar, invasive fishes (poeciliids, Tilapia) and elevated nutrients on anchialine pool habitats?

- expand spatial coverage of surveys- experimental manipulations - nutrient flow through food web (isotopes)

Distribution, dispersal, and impacts of the introduced Macrobrachium lar within anchialine

pool ecosystems

Mahalos

Rick Gmirkin & Arik Arakaki - Ala Kahakai National Historical Park, Sallie Beavers-NPS, Delwyn Oki-USGS, Eric Grossman-USGS, Rebecca Most-UH Hilo, Scott Santos – Auburn University

Macrobrachium lar study

Samples• Stream – Mike Blum, Tulane Univ. >300 n• Samoa – NPS 20 n• Anchialine Pool

July 2010 & July 2011

25n, 6 sites

147n, 8 sites

15n, 2 sites

52n, 6 sites

47n, 4 sites

Macrobrachium lar study

Samples• Stream – Mike Blum, Tulane Univ. >300 n• Samoa – NPS 20 n• Anchialine Pool

July 2010 & July 2011

65n, Ohiki Makalawena Mauna Lani Halape Kapoho Puako (1)

Successful PCR with 1 COI primer set.

Several sequences produced

MORE NEEDED!

Ron Kwok, 2009, NASA/JPL

DATA

Local Tidal DatumKawaihae/Hilo

Lidar Vertical Datum

0 Mean Sea Level

2.29 ft (0.698 m) Highest Observed Tide

3.28 ft 1 m Sea Level Rise

5.57 ft (1.698m) Sea Level Rise + High Tide