Predicting Individual Preparedness & Assistance: Sandy and Irene Experiences

Michael GreenbergJune 2013

Four Research Questions

• 1. What proportion of the NJ’s population supports risk-reducing land use and building policies in flood prone areas? And why?

• 2. What impact has Superstorm Sandy had on public perception of global climate change? And why?

• 3. How were transit, energy delivery, and other infrastructure impacted by the storm? What are public perceptions of those impacts? And why?

• 4. Can we predict assistance and how is it associated with preparedness, situation, needs and constraints?

Survey

• 1750 samples• 65% landline, 35% cell phone• February 13-March 27, 2013• Sample divided into two groups with 875 receiving land

use/building management questions and global climate change questions and the other 875 receiving the infrastructure and preparedness-outcome questions.

• All received key predictor questions about global climate change, trust, cost, and demographics

Question

• Can we predict assistance and how is it associated with preparedness, situation, needs and constraints?

TABLE 1—Proportion of Respondents Who Provided Assistance During Irene or Sandy

Summary data % of all

Did not provide assistance 41.1

Provided assistance 3+ typesAvg.

58.914.32.0

FoodClothingShelterWater

56.832.624.223.6

Length of service:Avg.MedianMode

8.731

Predicting Assistance (59%)

• Preparedness by far strongest predictor (OR=1.37)• Preparedness 0 -– Assistance 23%• 1 -- 42%• 2 -- 56%• 3-6 -- 70% (asymptotic) • Situational variables:• Age 35-64 (OR=1.57)• Persons in home with a pre-existing condition (OR=1.46)• Rates personal health as not excellent (OR=0.64)• Experienced data of family, friend during Sandy (OR=2.86)

Preparedness, Assistance & Group Membership

• Almost 60% of those who provided assistance were also part of a group that provided assistance.

• Persons who belonged to an organized religious group or another group such as Red Cross, Salvation Army were the most prepared and provided assistance for longer period of time.

• Those who belonged to secular community groups provided a similar number of types of aid but for a shorter period of time.

Implications & Next Steps

• How efficacious is the assistance provided by individuals during and after an event?

• How can it be made more effective, that is, responsive to needs of neighbors, relatives and friends and consistent with needs of public health and emergency response community?

• What kinds of risk communication and training is needed toward this end?

• Seniors are at much higher risk. Yet, how many seniors provide assistance during these events?

Levels of Preparedness

• 6 types measured:• Have fire extinguisher (77%)• Have a family communication plan (47%)• Have an extended stay at home plan (42%)• Have a emergency supply kit (45%)• Have a place to meet (35%)• Have a generator (29%)• Average is 2.7• 25% have 0 or 1• 33% have 4-6

Predicting Preparedness

• Experiences:• Impacted by Irene• Death or injury to family member or friend • Flashbulb memories of Katrina, Irene, Sandy• Values and Preferences:• 2+ children in the home• Multiple automobiles• Excellent self-rated health & age 35-64• People rely on gov’t to do things that they should do

for themselves and distrust gov’t, including local.