DemographyDemography by by Dr Sajid HameedDr Sajid HameedCourse ObjectivesCourse Objectives1.Define different tools of demography and vital 1.Define different tools of demography and vital statisticsstatistics2.Name major sources of data2.Name major sources of data3.Describe the Demographic transition3.Describe the Demographic transition4.Interpret and compute different mortality,fertility 4.Interpret and compute different mortality,fertility and morbidity related measuresand morbidity related measures5.Describe factors that effect on mortality and 5.Describe factors that effect on mortality and fertilityfertility6.Impact of population growth, Urbanization &6.Impact of population growth, Urbanization &MigrationMigration

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DemographyDemography

• Demo (People) + Graphien (write)

• The quantitative study of Characteristics of human population

1. Size

2.Age and Sex distribution

3.Density

4.Growth

5.Vital statistic

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What does immediately comes to the mind What does immediately comes to the mind when we think of population?when we think of population?

• People:

1. Size

2. Age

3. Sex

4. Regional Distribution

5. Change

6. Population trends

• Characteristics of population:

1. Ethnic2. Marital3. Economic4. Educational5. Residential6. Religion7. Language

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Why we should study demography?Why we should study demography?

• Food Security• Pollution• Inflation• Income• Energy• Unemployment• Literacy• Individual freedom

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Important DefinitionsImportant Definitions

• Demography• Population change• Sources of

demographic data• Age-sex composition• Fertility• Mortality• Net-Migration• Urbanization

• Population growth rate

• Population doubling time

• Population pyramid• Replacement level

fertility• Momentum of

population

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Demographic ProcessesDemographic Processes

• Fertility

• Mortality

• Marriage

• Migration

• Social Mobility

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SourcesSources of Population Dataof Population Data• Vital registration1. Births2. Deaths3. Marriages4. Population registers5. Service statistics6. International; migration statistics• NADRA• Demographic Sample Surveys• Population & Housing Censes

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Population CensusPopulation Census• Definition: It is a process of collecting, compiling and publishingdemographic, economic and social data pertaining tospecific time or times, from all persons in a country. (U N 1958)• Methods:a) Enumerationsb) By questionnairec) Combination of bothDE FECTO (A person is at the place he or she is found at

the time of counting.)DE JURE ( A person is counted at the place of his or her

actual residence.)

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Population PyramidPopulation Pyramid

• A graphical representation designed to give a picture of the Age & Sex Structure of a population

• Salient features of a population pyramid:

1.A series of bars each in proportionate to % of contribution of age –sex group

2.Males are shown on left of pyramid

3.Youngest are shown at the bottom

4.Shape of the pyramid reflects major influences due to vital events in the history of a country

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Dependency RatioDependency Ratio

• The proportion of persons above 65years of age and children below 15 years of age are considered to be dependent on the economically productive age group(15-64Yrs)

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Growth of World Population Through CenturiesGrowth of World Population Through Centuries

Period Year Approximate population

Annual growth rate %

10,000 B.C 1-10 m < .05

1650 A.D 500 m 0.1

1850 A.D 1.2 b 0.5

1950 A.D 2.4 b 0.8

2000 A.D 6.1 b 1.7

2027 A.D 10.1 b 1.7

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Population Doubling TimePopulation Doubling Time

• How long a population would take at its current Growth Rate to double in size?

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• Doubling Time in Years = ------------------

Gr. Rate in %

• e.g if Gr.Rate= 2% then population doubling time = 70/2 =35 Years

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Phases of the Demographic TransitionPhases of the Demographic TransitionStage Phase Birth

Rates

Death Rates

Natural rate of increase

Examples

I High Stationary

High High Zero, or very low

II Early Expanding

High Falling slowly

Slow

III Late Expanding

Falling

Falling faster than birth rates

Rapid

IV Low Stationary

Low Low Zero, or very low

V Declining Low Higher than Birth rates

Negative

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Demographic TrapDemographic Trap• In countries where an imbalance exists are

endangering their ecosystem. This phenomenon is called demographic trap.

• Phases:First Phase Human demands are within the sustainable

yield of ecosystemSecond Phase Human demands exceed the sustainable yield,

so biological reserves are consumed.Third Phase Ecosystem collapses

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Population ExplosionPopulation Explosion

• Due to existing rapid growth rate of most of the countries a population explosion is going to develop, the world population has experienced a phenomenal increase.

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Summary ImplicationsSummary Implications

• Shortage of :-

1. Educational facilities

2. Health Services

3. Housing Units

4. Food

5. Living Space

6. Clean water

• Increase In :-

1. Unemployment

2. Land Fragmentation

3. Food Imports

4. Environmental Pollution

5. Overcrowding

6. Katchi Abadis

7. Poverty

8. Unrest & Crime

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Factors Affecting FertilityFactors Affecting Fertility

• Age at marriage & duration of married life.

• Family planning & Child spacing

• Education

• Economic Status

• Cast & Religion

• Nutrition

• Other factors( Physical,Biological,Socio-cultural).

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Basic Fertility MeasuresBasic Fertility Measures

• Crude birth rate (CBR)

• General fertility rate (GFR)

• Age-specific fertility rate (ASFR)

• Total fertility rate (TFR)

• Gross reproductive rate (GRR)

• Net reproductive rate (NRR)

• General marital fertility rate (GMFR)

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Tools of DemographyTools of Demography

• Counts

• Rates

• Ratios

• Proportions

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Components of a RateComponents of a Rate

• Numerator• Denominator• Specified time• Multiplier to convert the rate from an awkward

fraction or a decimal to a whole number.

Rate = No. of events in a specified period X n

Average population during that period

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RatesRates

• Crude Rates are summary measures based on the actual number of events in a total population over a given time period

• Specific rates means pertaining to a population or disease subgroup

• Adjusted or standardized rates can be calculated to adjust for differences in age distribution, so that comparisons are interpretable.

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Vital StatisticsVital Statistics

Rate = N /D X K

N= Number of the variable under Observtion

D= Data figure of population of interest

K= Constant

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Fertility Related StatisticsFertility Related Statistics

1. Birth Rate2. General Fertility Rate ( GFR)3. General Marital Fertility Rate ( GMFR)4. Age - Specific Fertility Rate5. Age- Specific Marital Fertility rate6. Total Fertility Rate (TFR)7. Total Marital Fertility Rate8. Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR)9. Net Reproduction Rate ( NRR)

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Fertility Related StatisticsFertility Related Statistics

10.Child-Woman Ratio

11.Pregnancy Rate (Ratio)

12.Abortion Rate

13.Abortion Ratio

14.Marriage Rate

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Fertility –Related StatisticsFertility –Related Statistics1. Birth Rate = No. of Live Births During The Year X 1000 Estimated Mid-Year Population

2. GFR = No. of Live Births During The Year X 1000 Mid-Year Female Pop. in the Same Area ( Age 15-44 or 49 Yrs)3. ASFR = The number of live births in a year to 1000 women in any

specified age group.

4. TFR = ∑ASFR X 5

5. GRR = Average number of girls born to a woman if she experiences the current fertility rate throughout her reproductive span (15-44 or 49 Yrs), assuming no mortality.

6. NRR = The number of daughters a newborn girl will bear during her lifetime, assuming fixed age- specific fertility and mortality rates.

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Calculation of TFRCalculation of TFR

• Divide the population of women of childbearing age(15 to 45 or 49 years)

• Record the total number of women in each age group (a)

• Record the total number of live births in each age group (b)

• Divide (b) by (a) to get ASFR

• TFR=Sum of all age groups ASFR X 5

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Reasons for high mortalityReasons for high mortality

• Acute and chronic food shortages

• Epidemic diseases

• Poor public health conditions

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Causes Of Rapid Mortality DeclineCauses Of Rapid Mortality Decline

• Increased agriculture production

• Industrialization

• Improved transportation

• Specific reforms

• Control of temperature and humidity

• Public sanitation

• Improved personal hygiene

• Immunology

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MortalityMortality

• Crude death rate (CDR)

• Age specific death rate (ASDR)

• Infant mortality rate (IMR)

• Early neonatal M.R

• Late neonatal M.R

• Post neonatal M.R

• Perinatal mortality rate

• Maternal mortality ratio (MMR)

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Mortality StatisticsMortality Statistics

• MMR= Total no. of Maternal deaths X1000

Total no. of live births in the same area and year

• IMR =Total no. of Maternal deaths X1000

Total no. of live births in the same area and year

• CDR= Total no. of deaths in an year X

Mid year population of that Area

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What is Urban?What is Urban?

• A spatial concentration of people whose lives are organized around non-agricultural activities

• Consequences of migration

• Why people migrate ( Push- pull theory)

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Migration and UrbanizationMigration and Urbanization

• “The Sole cause of man’s unhappiness is that he does not know to stay quietly in his room…

(Pascal,1650)

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Push & Pull TheoryPush & Pull Theory

In search of :

• Employment

• Education

• Higher standards of living

• Alternate sources of Income

• Refuge

• Other Targets

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CNMRCNMR

Total In-migration – Total out-Migration X 1000

Total mid-year Population

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Consequences of MigrationConsequences of Migration

• For the Migrant

• For the Environment

• For the Donor area

• For the Host area

• For the Country as a whole

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Population MomentumPopulation Momentum

• The tendency of a population to continue to grow after replacement level fertility has been achieved

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Population EquationPopulation Equation

• Pn = Po + B - D+ I – E

• Pn = Population at time n

• Po = Population at previous time

• B = All Births

• D = All Deaths• I = Immigration

• E = Emigration

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Current demographic ScenarioCurrent demographic Scenarioof Pakistan Source: NIPS, July, 2003of Pakistan Source: NIPS, July, 2003

Population size in million 148.6

Birth per 1000 pop. 28

Deaths per 1000 pop. 08

Annual pop. Growth Rate 02%

Fertility ( Per woman ) 4.3

Population Doubling Time 35 years

Awareness about contraceptives 96 %

Contraceptive prevalence rate 34 %

Maternal deaths per 100,000 births 350-500

Infant deaths per 1000 births 80

G.N.P per capita 492