The Water System in Central Arizona-Phoenix: Current State, Future Scenarios and Sustainability Vision

Lauren K Withycombe, Arnim Wiek, Kelli Larson, Danielle Shaffer

Cognitive Map (Ai) of Water System in Central AZ-Phx2

This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. SES-0951366 Decision Center for a Desert City II: Urban Climate Adaptation (DCDC). Any opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendation expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation (NSF).

Perceptions and Cross-Perceptions of Roles and Responsibilities: Interviews with Actors in the Water System

Residential Water Demand as Example of System Complexity

System Analysis: Developing Coherent Scenarios and Vision Systems analysis is a tool to understand causal linkages in complex systems.

Data is collected on the current state of system components, which are identified during cognitive mapping

System components are used as variables in systems analysis and in scenario construction.

The process of identifying and analyzing causal relationships, feedbacks and lags in the system ensure that the scenarios and vision are consistent.

(i) Residential Demand (ii) Layers

Actions &

Actors

Infrastructure

Hydroecology

(iii) Influence (iv) Are Influenced by

Quantity of water stored for drought and dry season

The amount of wastewater produced

Household water consumption

Values such as aesthetics and comfort

Needs e.g. clean water for drinking, cooking and sanitation

City and state regulations

The efficiency of water use

What water is used for

The location of the home

Building codes or HOA regulations

The Urban Heat Island effect

Household energy consumption

HOA landscape requirements

Method of delivery of outdoor water

Homes Commun-ity Spaces

Yards Parks

Pools Lakes

Turf Grass Land Cover

Wildlife

Drinking Cooking

Sanitation

Landscape Maint-enance

Pool & Lake

Maint-enance

HOAs

Property Owners

(i) “Demands”: Boxes and circles are the key components of residential water demand

(ii) “Layers”: Domains to organize key components

(iii) “Influence”: Systemic linkages that are influenced by the particular layer within residential water demand

(iv) “Are Influenced by”: Systemic linkages that influence the particular layer within the residential water system

Sources 1Wiek A (2010) Sustainability research and problem-solving frameworks. Working Paper. School of Sustainability, Arizona State University. 2Wiek A, Larson K (2011) Water governance, people, and sustainability – A systems approach. Unpublished manuscript. 3Gibson R (2006) Sustainability assessment: Basic components of a practical approach. Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal 24 (3), 170-182.

A Transformative Research and Problem Solving Approach1

1)Analyze Current State

a)Cognitive mapping: key components of the water system

b)Roles and responsibilities: who is doing what with water?

c) System analysis: key interactions between components

2) Construct alternative future scenarios

a) Use Sustainability Assessment Methodology to assess future scenarios

3) Select among future scenarios the most sustainable

a)Craft desirable scenario into future vision

4)Develop strategies to achieve vision and avoid undesirable alternatives

ACTIONS ACTORS INFRASTRUCTURE HYDROECOLOGICAL INTERFACE

Fish Vegetation

Wildlife

Intervention and Transition Strategies

Intervention and Transition Strategies

Visions: Sustainable PHX

Visions: Sustainable PHX

Future Scenarios: City of PHX

Future Scenarios City of PHX

Visions: Sustainable Water

System Vi (Pi ,Bi,Si )

Current Situation: Water System

C (Ai )

Future Scenarios: Future of Water

in the Region

Fi (Ai ,C,Di )

1b

4a

Intervention and Transition Strategies

Si (Vi ,C ,Di ,Ii ,Si )

4b

Intervention Points

Ii

Actions: Who is doing what in the

Water System? Ai

1a Deviation Points

Di

Strategy Building

Strategy Testing

Current State System Analysis

Cognitive Mapping

Visioning (Creation/Crafting)

3 Scenario

Construction

Distance-to- Target Future Space

Foresight

Backcasting adapted from Wiek (2010)

Sustainability Principles

Pi

Sustainability Best Practices

Bi Stakeholder

Values Si

2

Sample: Who is being interviewed?

Sources and Allocations: Lawyers and policy makers with expertise in and power over water rights claims and adjudication; agencies and organizations that manage water supply

Deliveries: Water providers including municipal and private utilities, municipal and tribal governments and intergovernmental organizations

Demands: Users from all sectors, state agency staff with interest in or jurisdiction over demand sectors, water user associations, researchers, advocates and educators

Outflows: Staff, managers, engineers from public agencies and private organizations who treat or oversee the treatment of wastewater, the development of wastewater and flood control infrastructure and plans

Crosscutting: Researchers, media representatives, educators, boundary organization staff, advocacy groups

Part 1: In your role in the water system what responsibilities do you have, what barriers do you encounter when carrying out these responsibilities and how much of an impediment are these barriers?

Part 2: Who are other important actors in the water system, what are their responsibilities, what barriers do they encounter, how much of an impediment are those barriers?

Part 32,3: What sustainable governance roles and responsibilities are encompassed by your current role, which belong to other actors, what barriers do you or others face in trying to carry out these responsibilities, how much of an impediment are those barriers?

Part 4: Who do you interact with in the water system and how intense are these interactions?

Your responsibilities Barriers Strength of Barriers

1 2 3 4 5

Their responsibilities Barriers Strength of Barriers

1 2 3 4 5

Other key actors

Barriers Strength of Barriers

1 2 3 4 5

Sustainable Governance Role

Anticipate future stressors and shocks to water supplies Develop and implement plans to manage supply in varying future conditions

Promote and incentivize water conservation

Organizations and Agencies

1-way info sharing

2-way communic.

Collabor-ation

Joint Decision Making

USBR

ADWR

SRP

CAP

Developing plausible future scenarios of the water system and using Decision Theater to construct and present scenarios

Assessing future scenarios using Sustainability Assessment Methodology

Future Research