This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. SES-0951366 Decision Center for a Desert City II: Urban Climate Adaptation (DCDC). Any opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendation expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation (NSF).

This research project explores the potential consequences of stakeholder values (what stakeholders want) regarding water resources in the greater Phoenix area. This is done through an innovative qualitative-quantitative approach to scenario construction. Key research questions include: I.  According to stakeholders, how should water be governed and used in the

greater Phoenix area in the future? II.  What are the consequences of different stakeholder values should they be

realized?

Lauren Withycombe Keeler, Arnim Wiek, Dave White, Ray Quay, David Sampson John Quinn

A research agenda to link stakeholder values with WaterSim, a quantiative, supply-demand model of water in the Phoenix region

Future Scenarios of Water in Phoenix: Initial WaterSim Results

Gob

er e

t al.

2011

Systaim

New Water Sources

Protected Riparian Areas

Safe Yield in Water Management

Delivery Infrastructure

Energy for Water

Water Quality Regulations

Canals

Grey Water Systems

Peri-Urban Farmland

Farm Water Use

Industry Water Use and Regulation

New Residential Water Use

Financial Incentives fo Water Use

Effluent Water Use

Water Governance

Impact FactorsActivePassive

AmbivalentBuffer

Impact Strength1: medium impact2: strong impact

Systaim

New Water Sources

Protected Riparian Areas

Safe Yield in Water Management

Delivery Infrastructure

Energy for Water

Water Quality Regulations

Canals

Grey Water Systems

Peri-Urban Farmland

Farm Water Use

Industry Water Use and Regulation

New Residential Water Use

Financial Incentives fo Water Use

Effluent Water Use

Water Governance

Impact FactorsActivePassive

AmbivalentBuffer

Impact Strength1: medium impact2: strong impact

Systaim

New Water Sources

Protected Riparian Areas

Safe Yield in Water Management

Delivery Infrastructure

Energy for Water

Water Quality Regulations

Canals

Grey Water Systems

Peri-Urban Farmland

Farm Water Use

Industry Water Use and Regulation

New Residential Water Use

Financial Incentives fo Water Use

Effluent Water Use

Water Governance

Impact FactorsActivePassive

AmbivalentBuffer

Impact Strength1: medium impact2: strong impact

Linking Qualitative Scenarios to WaterSim Model Integrated Scenario Methodology

1. Values Survey • Cross-sectional online survey • N=106 (response rate 32%) • 5 multi-item, Likert-like questions

• Principal components analysis

3. WaterSim Simulations • Link projections & model variables

• Run model • Sensitivity analysis

4. Sustainability Assessment and Scenario Revision

• Sustainability metrics & thresholds • Participatory assessment

2. Qualitative Scenario Analysis • Variables/projections construction • Qualitative system analysis • Consistency analysis • Scenario selection

Stakeholders in Consultation

Stakeholders in Collaboration

Expert-driven, Interdisciplinary

Collaboration

Expert-driven, Interdisciplinary

Collaboration

New water sources

Protected riparian areas

Safe yield

Delivery infrastructure Energy for

water Water quality

regulations

Canals

Grey water systems

Peri-urban farmland

Farm water use

Industry water use & reg.

New residential water use Financial incentives

Effluent water use

Water governance

Supply Delivery Demand Outflows

Cross-Cutting

Scenario Variables Reduced from Values Survey

Initially Selected Scenarios

Variables

Strong Groundwater and

Demand Management

Water Infrastructure for Megapolitan

Development

New water sources Energy for water New residential water use Effluent water use Water governance

Not Pursued

Pursued

100% Renewable

Mix, Renewable & Non.

Growth controlled

No growth control/ addl. regulations

Groundwater recharge and wildlife

benefits

Direct reuse as drinking water

Active public engagement in

decisions

Top-down with minimal consultation

Supply Delivery Demand Outflows Cross-Cutting

Qualitative System Analysis WaterSim Dynamic Quantitative Model

Results