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PowerPoint Presentation...•Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4. • Incentives across segments have continued to

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Page 1: PowerPoint Presentation...•Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4. • Incentives across segments have continued to
Page 2: PowerPoint Presentation...•Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4. • Incentives across segments have continued to

Page 3: PowerPoint Presentation...•Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4. • Incentives across segments have continued to
Page 4: PowerPoint Presentation...•Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4. • Incentives across segments have continued to

• Real GDP growth was weighed down by a sharp slowdown in gross fixed capital formation

Page 5: PowerPoint Presentation...•Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4. • Incentives across segments have continued to

Page 6: PowerPoint Presentation...•Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4. • Incentives across segments have continued to

Page 7: PowerPoint Presentation...•Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4. • Incentives across segments have continued to

Page 8: PowerPoint Presentation...•Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4. • Incentives across segments have continued to

Page 9: PowerPoint Presentation...•Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4. • Incentives across segments have continued to

Page 10: PowerPoint Presentation...•Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4. • Incentives across segments have continued to

Page 11: PowerPoint Presentation...•Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4. • Incentives across segments have continued to

Page 12: PowerPoint Presentation...•Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4. • Incentives across segments have continued to
Page 13: PowerPoint Presentation...•Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4. • Incentives across segments have continued to

Page 14: PowerPoint Presentation...•Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4. • Incentives across segments have continued to

Page 15: PowerPoint Presentation...•Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4. • Incentives across segments have continued to

• FPI flows were positive fifth month in a row (at Rs. 12,123 crores)

• Mutual fund flows, though positive, were more muted at Rs. 1,053 crores.

Page 16: PowerPoint Presentation...•Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4. • Incentives across segments have continued to

The earnings yield (which is the inverse of the P/E ratio) shows the percentage of how much a company earned per share. This yield maybe used to determine optimal asset allocation for debt and equity. The earnings yield of a broad market index (such as the S&P Sensex) is compared to prevailing interest rates, such as the current 10-year G-sec yield. If the earnings yield is less than the 10-year G-sec yield, stocks as a whole may be considered overvalued. If the earnings yield is higher, stocks may be considered undervalued relative to bonds.

Page 17: PowerPoint Presentation...•Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4. • Incentives across segments have continued to
Page 18: PowerPoint Presentation...•Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4. • Incentives across segments have continued to
Page 19: PowerPoint Presentation...•Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4. • Incentives across segments have continued to

Page 20: PowerPoint Presentation...•Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4. • Incentives across segments have continued to

Page 21: PowerPoint Presentation...•Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4. • Incentives across segments have continued to

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CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17 CY18 CY19e CY20e

IT Services Growth

60

80

100

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

TCV Of deals (US$ bn)

5.0%

7.0%

9.0%

11.0%

13.0%

15.0%

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19

IT Revenue growth

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Page 22: PowerPoint Presentation...•Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4. • Incentives across segments have continued to

Page 23: PowerPoint Presentation...•Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4. • Incentives across segments have continued to

Page 24: PowerPoint Presentation...•Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4. • Incentives across segments have continued to

Page 25: PowerPoint Presentation...•Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4. • Incentives across segments have continued to

Page 26: PowerPoint Presentation...•Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4. • Incentives across segments have continued to

Page 27: PowerPoint Presentation...•Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4. • Incentives across segments have continued to

Page 28: PowerPoint Presentation...•Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4. • Incentives across segments have continued to

Page 29: PowerPoint Presentation...•Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4. • Incentives across segments have continued to

Global oil demand and supply forecast

CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17CY1

8CY19 CY20

Page 30: PowerPoint Presentation...•Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4. • Incentives across segments have continued to

Page 31: PowerPoint Presentation...•Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4. • Incentives across segments have continued to

• Consumer offtake continues to remain weak – 1

• Mixed outlook on margins –

• Sachetisation for Premium products on the rise –

Page 32: PowerPoint Presentation...•Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4. • Incentives across segments have continued to

Page 33: PowerPoint Presentation...•Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4. • Incentives across segments have continued to

• BS6 transition along with weak demand affected production and dispatches in January-20

• Impact was more pronounced for the listed 2W and CV manufacturers

• Inventories (largely BS4) across OEMs are now close to normal levels and all OEMs will entirely shift to BS6

production by end of Feb

• CV volumes improved sequentially for second consecutive month, but remain weak YoY; there are some

green-shoots visible in terms of demand

• 2W volumes remained weak as OEMs continue BS6 transition and look to take advantage of any potential

pre-buy; Robust exports offset some of the weakness

• Within PVs, Maruti continues to outperform its peers with YoY growth in Jan-20.

• Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4.

• Incentives across segments have continued to trend lower

• BS6 transition and coronavirus impact on auto supply chain is likely to keep Q4 volumes subdued.

Page 34: PowerPoint Presentation...•Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4. • Incentives across segments have continued to

Exhibit: Summary of Jan-20 volumes (including exports)

Autos Jan-20 Jan-19 %YoY Dec-19 %MoM YTD FY20 YTD FY19 % YoY

2W 1,127,104 1,275,098 -12% 975,682 16% 12,328,498 14,118,772 -13%

3Ws 84,749 76,046 11% 72,577 17% 803,571 830,065 -3%

Cars 120,807 112,872 7% 97,939 23% 964,078 1,195,688 -19%

UV + Van 52,728 68,266 -23% 53,321 -1% 526,073 627,364 -16%

PVs 173,535 181,138 -4% 151,260 15% 1,490,151 1,823,052 -18%

LCV 48,760 50,302 -3% 41,428 18% 414,538 477,196 -13%

M&HCV 19,695 31,863 -38% 18,818 5% 178,553 281,181 -36%

CVs 68,455 82,165 -17% 60,246 14% 593,091 758,377 -22%

Tractors 29,179 28,203 3% 22,104 32% 337,714 369,037 -8%

Note: Data include the corresponding segment volumes of Ashok Leyland, Bajaj Auto, Eicher Motors, Escorts, Hero Motocorp, Mahindra & Mahindra, MarutiSuzuki, Tata Motors and TVS MotorsSource: PhillipCapital Research, Company Data

Page 35: PowerPoint Presentation...•Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4. • Incentives across segments have continued to

Page 36: PowerPoint Presentation...•Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4. • Incentives across segments have continued to
Page 37: PowerPoint Presentation...•Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4. • Incentives across segments have continued to
Page 38: PowerPoint Presentation...•Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4. • Incentives across segments have continued to