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• Real GDP growth was weighed down by a sharp slowdown in gross fixed capital formation
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• FPI flows were positive fifth month in a row (at Rs. 12,123 crores)
• Mutual fund flows, though positive, were more muted at Rs. 1,053 crores.
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The earnings yield (which is the inverse of the P/E ratio) shows the percentage of how much a company earned per share. This yield maybe used to determine optimal asset allocation for debt and equity. The earnings yield of a broad market index (such as the S&P Sensex) is compared to prevailing interest rates, such as the current 10-year G-sec yield. If the earnings yield is less than the 10-year G-sec yield, stocks as a whole may be considered overvalued. If the earnings yield is higher, stocks may be considered undervalued relative to bonds.
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-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17 CY18 CY19e CY20e
IT Services Growth
60
80
100
120
140
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
TCV Of deals (US$ bn)
5.0%
7.0%
9.0%
11.0%
13.0%
15.0%
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
IT Revenue growth
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Global oil demand and supply forecast
CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17CY1
8CY19 CY20
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• Consumer offtake continues to remain weak – 1
• Mixed outlook on margins –
• Sachetisation for Premium products on the rise –
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• BS6 transition along with weak demand affected production and dispatches in January-20
• Impact was more pronounced for the listed 2W and CV manufacturers
• Inventories (largely BS4) across OEMs are now close to normal levels and all OEMs will entirely shift to BS6
production by end of Feb
• CV volumes improved sequentially for second consecutive month, but remain weak YoY; there are some
green-shoots visible in terms of demand
• 2W volumes remained weak as OEMs continue BS6 transition and look to take advantage of any potential
pre-buy; Robust exports offset some of the weakness
• Within PVs, Maruti continues to outperform its peers with YoY growth in Jan-20.
• Tractor volumes grew in Jan (YoY) and overall industry is expected to grow in mid single digits in Q4.
• Incentives across segments have continued to trend lower
• BS6 transition and coronavirus impact on auto supply chain is likely to keep Q4 volumes subdued.
Exhibit: Summary of Jan-20 volumes (including exports)
Autos Jan-20 Jan-19 %YoY Dec-19 %MoM YTD FY20 YTD FY19 % YoY
2W 1,127,104 1,275,098 -12% 975,682 16% 12,328,498 14,118,772 -13%
3Ws 84,749 76,046 11% 72,577 17% 803,571 830,065 -3%
Cars 120,807 112,872 7% 97,939 23% 964,078 1,195,688 -19%
UV + Van 52,728 68,266 -23% 53,321 -1% 526,073 627,364 -16%
PVs 173,535 181,138 -4% 151,260 15% 1,490,151 1,823,052 -18%
LCV 48,760 50,302 -3% 41,428 18% 414,538 477,196 -13%
M&HCV 19,695 31,863 -38% 18,818 5% 178,553 281,181 -36%
CVs 68,455 82,165 -17% 60,246 14% 593,091 758,377 -22%
Tractors 29,179 28,203 3% 22,104 32% 337,714 369,037 -8%
Note: Data include the corresponding segment volumes of Ashok Leyland, Bajaj Auto, Eicher Motors, Escorts, Hero Motocorp, Mahindra & Mahindra, MarutiSuzuki, Tata Motors and TVS MotorsSource: PhillipCapital Research, Company Data
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