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The Smart Jitney: Rapid, Realistic, Transport ReinventionThe Plan CTransportationSolution(Long Version)
Community SolutionsYellow Springs, Ohio 45387
March 10, 2010
Private Auto Statistics
U.S. has 220 million cars/SUVs/pickups (Car Equivalent Units) 30% of the 700+ million cars in use worldwide
75 million new cars and CEUs are built each year worldwide Net addition to world car population – 55 million yearly World growth in terms of auto fuel – 8%
U.S. cars & CEUs generate 45% of auto CO2 in world U.S. emits 2 trillion pounds of CO2 annually
Every American buys 13 cars in his/her lifetime
U.S. fleet mileage – 21 mpg; Europe 42 mpg, Japan 45 mpg
The Hirsch Report
Low Mileage cars still being made – with a 15-20 year life Hirsch concludes we can’t change the fleet Must develop new liquid fuels – coal to liquids, etc.
$.25 trillion228,500Aircraft
$1.5 trillion287 MillionHeavy Trucks, Buses
$1 trillion1680 MillionLight trucks SUVS, etc.
$1.3 trillion17130 MillionAutomobiles
Cost to replace half the fleet
(2003 $)
Median Life
(years)
SizeFleet
U.S. Drivers Tend to Drive Alone
Transportation Energy Book, 2008
And the Tendency Is Increasing
Peak Oil Automobile Implications
Peak Oil – means gasoline is gone in about 40 years But we will have less and less each year
Most people planning/hoping for a techno fix Hydrogen/Fuel Cell – 30 years in development (100+ built) EV – $1 billion R&D for GM; (4,000 built) PHEV next techno fix
Media offers one breakthrough after the other – feeds the drama
Difficult for Americans to objectively assess increased mileage Don’t think long term – continuation engineering Don’t know the history of each effort – breakthrough thinking
Strong belief in and wish for technology “breakthroughs”
Stir-Lec 1 – An Early PHEV General Motors Hybrid
Experimental
Build in 1969
Modified Opel
Hybrid Car Concept Not New
1921 Owen Magnetic Model 60
Victor Wouk with Buick Skylark Built for EPA Federal Clean Car
Incentive Program in 1974
New Tech Car Deployment – Decades
Now about 2,000,000 hybrids out of 750 million cars on road Less than 1% – after 12 years
Pluggable Hybrid (PHEV)
Based on Dr. Andy Frank’s work at UC-Davis – 10 or so cars
Company (Cal-Cars) formed by Felix Kramer
PR – Washington May 2006 House hearings for $250
million R&D Honda “Spend $ on R&D “
“But don’t count on it”
Supported by EPRI and Big Coal EPRI-Electric Power Research Inst.
Unexpected problems Lithium ions batteries not ready
PHEV Risk Tendency to glamorize and
overstate Senator Lieberman –
250 mpg Toyota and GM –
80 mpg likely Hiding fact it’s “coal” car
Note infinity symbol!
Could delay needed change Like EV and fuel cell
CAFÉ standards changed fast in 1970s – why not now?
U.S. auto companies need “breakthrough” idea to survive Committed to SUVs and pickups Can’t compete with cars like Honda Fit, Toyota Jazz
The Trends Don’t Work Impossible Equation
1–2% yearly improvements in technology
1–2% yearly people population increase (faster car growth)
2–4% yearly oil depletion rate after Peak Oil
Efficiency isn’t the answer 750 million 40 mpg cars
to 4 billion 100 mpg cars?
2–3 times the CO2
We Must Develop Backup Alternatives Most people we meet have a set of energy solutions
Advertising from GM, BP and Chevron TV reports of marvelous breakthroughs
Reality of efforts comes out on the back page Hyped oil discoveries Set backs of techo fixes
Hype and naiveté delays funding of serious non tech options
Cuba Peak Oil response Low level managers saw it coming – developed alternative
plans
Mass Transit Option Density determines success of mass transit
Historically residences laid out in dense corridors Many walkable small towns along the rail line
Between corridors, there was open space and farms
Suburban growth filled in the corridors Filled in area (suburbs) are car dependent And the filled in areas continued to spread
A true mass transit system for U.S. today might be impossible Our sprawl has no precedent in history
New Mass Transit Success Not Obvious Mass transit typically supplements cars
Paris, London, Toronto, New York – high car populations
Mass transit overrated (BTU per passenger mile) Private Car – 3,581 SUV – 4,600 Bus Transit – 4,127 Airplane – 3,703 Amtrak Train – 4,830 Rail transit – 2,714
How much and how long for a mass transit system? Can it even be done in places like Los Angeles?
Consider number of transfers to cross the area
Need to Think “Out of the Box”
No miracle cars – fuel cell, PHEV Need to give up techno-fix
No “light rail” bonanza No evidence of feasibility
Thinking out of the box might be: The private car was not a good idea Traffic is getting worse all the time
Current car based industrial lifestyle cannot continue Planet is being degraded – fast!
The Current Car Paradigm
Encourages people to make as many car trips as possible
Heavily subsidized car-based transport through: publicly funded loans, grants, road building cheap fuel, health care, policing and courts
Encourages the largest possible cars
Makes buses and trains as unpleasant as possible
Makes walking and cycling as inconvenient and dangerous as possible
Ensures that cars are never delayed by even a couple of seconds
Ignores the health, aesthetics, ethical & cost advantages of walking/cycling
Ensures transport needs of the wealthier are met first
Current Paradigm Results – Deaths
1,200,000 deaths yearly 38,848,000 injuries yearly Enormous suffering
Massive property losses More casualties in third world
Poor road infrastructure
Current Car Paradigm Social Results Destroys community – mobility brings irresponsibility
Footloose – having no ties; free to move about Walking and biking can no longer be done – some are trapped Freedom of community vs. freedom of individual
Greatest fear of parents for teens – not drugs, not pregnancy Death or injury in car accident Every beginning driver has an accident!
Harms family structure – children gone at 16!
Allows more criminal and anti-social behavior
What Would Be a New Car Paradigm? Use as few resources as possible
“Live simply so our children may simply live”
Optimize community transport rather than individual transport A culture of cooperation is its own reward
Punish harshly dangerous driving behavior Get rid of “cool” feeling about driving View transport deaths as seriously as war deaths or murders
Create a value system that gives people preference over cars Choose life and safety over convenience and “freedom”
Make walking/cycling/busing convenient – cars inconvenient Reversal of century long trend
Long-term survivability of life
Will Americans Seriously Consider This? How serious do American take global warming?
“An Inconvenient Truth”
How serious do Americans take Peak Oil? And likelihood of a Great Depression
Do Americans understand there could be war over oil? Would Iran destroy Saudi oil fields if America attacks it?
Can Americans consider that life is worthwhile without a private car?
Can we perceive the 5 billion people without cars as leading happy lives?
Should We Rethink “Freedom”? Freedom of private car should be reviewed
Rite of passage – boys/girls become men/women Is there another measure?
No limits – go where I want when I want Could sharing bring more satisfaction?
Freedom to break the laws Its not “cool” to obey speed limits and traffic laws
Freedom to use up the future limited resources
Freedom to destroy life of the planet No limits on cars – Hummer, V8 engines A freedom to endanger small car drivers
What Is a Jitney? A small bus that carries passengers over a regular route on a
flexible schedule
An unlicensed taxicab
Synonym – “Nickel” from the original 5-cent fare
Essence of the jitney – mass transit with cars, not buses
Jitneys Are Ancient and Contemporary
Cuba Uses Everything as a Jitney
What Is a “Smart” Jitney?
Previously called “Community Car” and “Ride Share” Now “dynamic ride sharing”
Like any jitney, it’s for a small number of people
Not mass transit – anyone, with a good record, can drive
Made possible by basic communications/GPS technology A software problem – not a hardware problem
Will provide anywhere/anytime/anyplace pickup and drop off Not limited to tracks/lines/schedules
Will provides a high level of security and safety
“Smart” enough to cut transport energy use 75% Climate people say 80% cut in CO2 is needed
Smart Jitney Will Use Existing Car Fleet Replacing the current fleet would take 10-20 years
Still don’t have low mileage cars yet!
An SUV (10mpg) with 6 passengers = Honda insight (60mpg) Think “passenger miles/gallon” not “car miles/gallon”
Use what you have when a crisis hits – and this is a crisis! British at Dunkirk – escape from catastrophe
Eliminate high risk of “breakthrough technology” Doesn’t mean stop working on new designs Does mean objective analysis
Smart Jitney Hardware
A vehicle New or old, small or large Includes a “wired in” Smart Jitney cell phone Includes an Auto Event Recorder (speed, etc.) May have a speed governor – a social question
A passenger cell phone for each rider Includes GPS Includes emergency call button for security
A reservation and tracking computer system
Smart Jitney Process
Passenger requests a ride via cell phone or Internet Enters Pickup Location and Destination Location Enters Time of Pickup and Time of Arrival Selects Kind of Service
Smart Jitney computer assigns rider to vehicle Evaluates all seats in transit Determines optimum pick up and drop-off path Monitors pickup and drop-off process Monitors for emergency warning
Pick up and drop off made Rider submits evaluation entered by cell phone Smart Jitney computer summarizes ride evaluations
E-Bay methodology
Smart Jitney Benefits
Faster transit time Three fourths of cars are off the road at any one time Science has developed ride optimization algorithms Parking is now available
75% reduction in fossil fuels, money and CO2
Major savings in lives probably Best drivers are driving – riders are vigilant Significantly less traffic Lower speed limits (55mph) – (saves more fuel)
(and makes it safer for bikes and walking)
Better safety and security
Smart Jitney – Reactions to Date “I will never ride with strangers! No matter what!”
From several women: “this isn’t safe!”
“Losing my car would break my heart” It’s my only real personal time Without my car, who am I!
“I believe technology will provide private cars forever” Hybrid, Pluggable Hybrids, Fuel Cells, Electric Cars Coal to liquids, gas to liquids, tar sands Maybe the climate won’t change after all!
Reactions Understandable – G7 Example
We live In a dangerous culture – which we could change!
3.32.53.8US/G6 Ratio
176141.763France
per 100 Kper 100 Kper 100 K(millions)
22.515.08.6US/Japan Ratio
718741.534Canada
5041.360Italy
748141.462UK
14291.282Germany
3420.5130Japan
764304.3300US
AssaultsRapesMurdersPopulationCountry
The Big Issue – Individualism
Competition is our number 1 cultural value Basis of our economic system Cooperation is viewed as weakness 2008 had the highest income inequity since records began
Our neighborhoods are organized by income level School funding via taxes supports social separation Perpetuates inequity through generations Competition between children
How could we ride with just anybody? Easy for most cultures in the world Very hard for us
Culture Has Declined We have lost many social skills in recent decades
Politeness, good manners, civility, courtesy, chivalry These are laughable ideas in modern America
Misbehaving in public was an offense in the past Now it is the “cool” thing to do Correcting misbehaving children in public gets a lawsuit
Conversing with strangers used to be an art form It was viewed as one of the joys of life Children were taught social skills
“Community” has been lost
Could a Climate Crisis Change That? Crises lead to increased competition or increased cooperation
This will be our fundamental choice in the near term The option is to hoard or share; compete or cooperate
Private car the ultimate example of American consumer values And the most destructive device we have made to date
Lives and property Social caring and community
Private car is the test case for limited energy It could be the test case for a new way of living Important to deal with this – or its “dog eat dog”
Smart Jitney May Restore Community It will require strong ground rules
Appropriate behavior men to women No foul language Smoke-free cars
Contrary to current view of freedom “Freedom to offend”
Need a “Freedom of Limits” Not free to say “fire” in theatre Not free to say “bomb” on an airline Can you swear loudly on a bus? Why? Why not? You can’t drive when drunk – and you can’t ride when drunk
If done properly, a smart jitney ride could be a pleasure If not, it will be unpleasant
Levels of Service Will Address This
Random Choice Ride with anybody – fastest service “A Blue Chevy #XML-345 will be there in six minutes”
Limited Choice Ride with certain kinds people Obvious option is coed, women, and men rides Might have other groupings – like age Might choose silent option – no talk, no radio Preference Oriented
Schedule Choice Ride with certain people Set up your own grouping – regular work, regular school Family outings
Safety and Security Safety covers the automobile
Accidents Equipment malfunction Roads and bridges The technical problem
Security covers the people Reckless drivers Drivers using drugs or alcohol Drivers that are too young or too old or too infirm Traffic laws and police protection The social and policy problem
Safety
Our death rates, injury rates and property loss are colossal U.S. 40,000 deaths and 1.7 million injuries yearly World 1,200,000 deaths and 38,848,000 injuries yearly
Total property losses in trillions ($240 billion in U.S.) Crippling of people, lost work, lost family members
We can go to the moon but… Can’t keep drunk drivers off the road Can’t make teenagers drive carefully Can’t get people to drive at the speed limit
Safety comes from something other than hardware
Improving Car Safety
Focus Auto R&D on collision avoidance and safety Misdirected Car R&D – $40 billion annually (style stuff) Provide technology for “defensive driving” GPS broadcast of “close” driver happenings Combine GPS and local radar (in test) Use avoidance alert technique of airplanes
Integrate law enforcement with traffic control High-speed ticketing instead of high-speed chases Develop Auto Event Recorders in evidence format
There is no technology limit for improving safety Lack of safety is primarily social and cultural
Security American individualism value
Privacy is paramount
Part of “rugged individualism” mantra Along with “Call of the Open Road”
Privacy compromised now Internet and phone records CIA, NSA, businesses Marketing personal information is common
Alternative way – There might be security in not hiding
Improving Security Is there a security of openness?
Wendell Berry on provinciality Nosy neighbors are caring
Aspect of sharing face to face
How can women and children be safe? What do decent men think? Can assaults/rapes happen
in walkable communities? Recall Japan assault rate vs. U.S. – 22 to 1 ratio
Could conversation skills be learned again?
Could “Acting Out” in public and in public cars be disallowed?
How Much? How Long? Jitney technology mature
GPS, cell phones, computers
Software is available Avego in Ireland
Additional proven technology can be incorporated Begin focusing on safety rather than style Utilize recent Auto Event Recorder Try for low-accident along with low-energy use
Can be implemented nationally/regionally/locally
A Much Lower Risk Option
New technology fuel cell – 30 years and counting
Electrical cars fueled by coal power plants Risk of runaway climate change
New liquid fuels – high risk, decades away, low ERORI Oil shale, coal to liquids, gas to liquids, biofuels The Hirsch Option – designed to perpetuate large cars
Efficiency vision won’t do it – Jevon’s paradox The more efficient the car the more energy will be consumed
What’s Next? Participation Avego is available now – have users in Europe
Being evaluated in US
Need questions, objections and suggestions How will you deal with heavy people or packages? “I don’t like the women only option because... “ “My tax idea would be a great incentive!” “Here’s an idea that will make children like it” And so on – a community design effort!
Einstein’s Reminder “We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we
created them”
All our thinking (and values) since World War II has been to consume more
Our current way of living (values) is leading to war and environmental devastation The private car is a key contributor
Time for some new thinking – and new values How about some “out-of-the-box” values? Like caring for the earth and our children’s children