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Potential for Tram in the City of Skopje,
Project Introduction
Gjorgjievski Kristijan | 13 October 2011
Developments in the past year■ December 2010 – The City of Skopje engaged Vialto Consulting and EC
Harris as consultants to do the following tasks:
– Phase I - Preparation of a Study for a concession project for development and introduction of light railway system for passenger transport in the area of the City of Skopje. The study includes:
• Traffic - technical analysis
• Economic and financial analysis
• Legal analysis
• Possibilities for development
– Phase II - Preparation of Tender Documentation and model contract, evaluation criteria and animation of potential investors;
– Phase III – Advisory in the selection process and contracting negotiations
2
3
Planned Tram Network(Feasibility Study 2007)
Line 1Line 1 alternativesLine 2Line 3Line 4
4
Estimated Passenger Flow(Peak Hour)
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Estimated Tram Passenger Flow
■ „Corridor” approach (change to tram)
– 80% of bus passengers (80 pax per bus)
– 20% of car passengers (1,5 pax per car)
■ Daily passengers assumptions
– w = 15% (peak hour factor)
– growth factor: 1% per year
– diameter shaped lines have two branches
■ Yearly passengers assumptions
– 250 workdays, 115 holidays
– holiday = 0.5 × workday
6
Other Analysed Technical Issues
■ Modification of tram stop allocation
■ Track alignment (side or central)
■ Tariff system
■ Bus reorganization
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Proposed Versions
Bulit Service Journey approx
Version Service track length time peak off-peak evening service
name name length one dir. 6-8;13-17 5-6;8-13;17-20 20-23 per day
[km] [min] [min] [min] [min] [pcs]
A B C D E F G H I J
V1 Tram 1 Novo Lisice - Centar 5,7 5,7 16 6 10 10 132
V2a Tram 1 Gjorche Petrov - Novo Lisice 12,1 12,1 33 4 6 10 198
V2b Tram 1 Gjorche Petrov - Novo Lisice 12,1 12,1 33 6 6 10 168
V3 Tram 1 Gjorche Petrov - Novo Lisice 12,1 12,1 33 8 10 15 111
Tram 2 [Gjorche Petrov] - Sever 5,6 12,8 32 8 10 15 111
17,7
V4 Tram 1 Gjorche Petrov - Novo Lisice 12,1 12,1 33 4 6 10 198
Tram 2 Staklarna - Sever 9,6 10,2 25 8 10 15 111
21,7
V5 Tram 1 Gjorche Petrov - Novo Lisice 12,1 12,1 33 8 10 15 111
Tram 3 [Gjorche Petrov] - Agroservice 4,4 12,7 32 8 10 15 111
Tram 2 Staklarna - Sever 9,6 10,2 25 8 10 15 111
26,1
Tram lines ServicesFollow-up time
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Investments and Operational CostVersion 2a - Novo Lisice - Centar - Gjorce Petrov
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Investments and Operational CostVersion 2a - Novo Lisice - Centar - Gjorce Petrov
No. Item Unit QuantityCost
per unitTotal cost
A B C D E F1
2 Track infrastructure track km 24,2 2 000 48 4003 Catenary track km 24,2 500 12 1004 Depot (only at Novo Lisice) each 1 15 000 15 0005 Vehicles each 22 1 900 41 8006 Subtotal 1000EUR 117 3007 Technical reserve 1000EUR 10% 11 7308 Provision for inflation 1000EUR 5% 5 8659 Provision for exchange rate 1000EUR 5% 5 865
10 Total 1000EUR 140 76011
12 Vehicles running (O&M) cost* km 1 665 444 0,004 6 66213 Infrastructure maintenance track km 24,2 50 1 21014 Total per year 1000EUR 7 872
*228 runs on workdays (250 day/year), 168 runs on other days
[1000 EUR]
Investment cost
Operational cost ( per year )
Financial analysis of a possible version■ Optimum operative subsidy, with 10% initial investment
– 10 % initial investment granting
– optimum operative subsidy (to reach at least 11 % interest rate on equity and not to have negative cumulative cash-flow)
– no ticket price reduction (except for students and pensioner)
13 october 2011 |Kristijan Gjorgjievski| 10
Financial Indicators
Net present value 68.26 M Eur
Benefit – Cost Ratio(BCR) 1.217
Net discounted profit (NPV – PV of equity investment) 54.19 M Eur
Interest rate on equity 11.00 %
Total Subsidy PV 68.58 M Eur
The Study - Conclusions■ It is financially feasible to introduce the Tram as an environmentaly friendly high
capacity transport mode in the City of Skopje;
■ Among line options investigated, nr 1 proved to be most beneficial and financially feasible (12km long trunk line);
■ Later further development is possible (line 2, 3);
■ Sustainable public financing is needed
• 10 % initial investment granting
• optimal operative subsidy
■ Risks to be mitigated (cost overrun, time overrun, policy failure, car invasion).
■ Need for changes in legislation, due to a new way of transport
■ Additional measures:
1. Modification of local transport strategy.
2. Reorganisation of JSP
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Next steps
■ The city of Skopje decided to proceed with the next phase, i.e into project preparatory phase
■ Animation of possible investors and organizing round table (end of November 2011)
■ Expected tender announcement – End of January 2012
13 october 2011 |Kristijan Gjorgjievski| 12
Questions ?
Thank You for Your Attention!
The study was prepared by
Dr. Csaba Orosz,
Dr. Janos BERÉNYI
Dr. Tibor Princz-Jakovics
Dr. Peter Bocz,
Backup slides
13 october 2011 |Kristijan Gjorgjievski| 15
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PPP (DBFM) Structure
27th of June 2011 1717
Present traffic flow to the centre (morning peak hour)Тековен проток на сообраќајот во центарот car
bus
Public subsidy, Version 2a/4
15th of April 2011 18
