Potential analysis micro-CHP in Europe

Jeroen Larrivee – Energy Matters (NL)

Micro-CHP for European prosumers

Task description

WP2, D2.5:

• European report on potential of micro-CHP in EU27

• Micro-CHP = CHP < 50 kWe

• Tasks

– Analyse national CHP potential reports for micro-CHP.

– Combine with data on boiler replacement in built housing stock to 2030.

– Propose a development route for micro-CHP per MS.

– Produce one page potentials summaries per MS

Most effective single measure for CO2 reduction!

Unique fit for existing buildings

Low temperature

space heating

High temperature

space heating

Domestic hot water

Fit with existing infrastructure

Boiler v v v v

GSHP/ASHP v x v** x

Hybrid HP v x v* v

Solar heat x x v** x

micro-CHP v v V* v

* Auxiliary boiler needed* Auxiliary boiler + thermal storage needed

Main types of micro-CHP

> 1000 units EU>100,000 units (JPN)

>1,000 units EU

> 100.000 units EU>120,000 units (JPN)

Source: Delta-EE, 2013

Source: the Renewable energy hub

Great potential micro-CHP due to large boiler market!

EU boiler market:> 100.000.000 boilers> 8.000.000 annual salesShift towards low carbon tech expected

Potential market:• For Households (± 1 kWe):

– Boiler replacement technology– Add-on concepts are being developed

• For SME & collective systems (1-50 kWe): – Add-on technology (to existing boiler)

Potential market per MS determined

• Huge market to be conquered! – Question is when and how fast…

• Potential market estimated per MS – Boiler market starting point– Potential estimated by scorecard:

• Technical market alternatives• Cost benefit analysis• Legislation• Awareness• Purchasing power

Example: UK market for domestic micro-CHP

• Micro-CHP in 2030: 0,8 million units per year• Support programs exist, i.e. feed-in tariff and

lease concepts• S-curve market diffusion assumed

Population: 62 millionBoiler sales: 2 million per year

The EU market – Western Europe most promising

• Annual sales up to 3 million per year in 2030• Market share average 7% in 2030• Enablers:

– Gas infrastructure– Size of the boiler market– Incentive programs– Competing technologies

Adapted from: Delta-EE, 2014

Main barrier for market deployment

• Can m-CHP become costcompetitive, i.e. retail €4,000,- per kWe?– Yes!

– Learning rate of 15% alreadywitnessed in Japan

– Extrapolating: EU cost-competitive in 2025

- Industry has to make some bold moves and needs encouragement!

Challenges

• Expending production facilities without proper market demand

• Building up supply chains

• How to reach the customers? Why would consumers turn intoprosumers?

Reflection of potential?

• Potentially, micro-CHP may contribute approx. 35% of boiler stock in 2030!

– Multi million annual sales potential

• But micro-CHP is facing two paths

microCHP developsfurther as a niche

product

microCHP becomes the de facto standard in

existing buildings

How to jumpstart the market?

- Industry has to make bold moves- Cost reduction through upscaling and learning- Innovation- Building up supply chains- Reaching potential customers (direct of indirect)

- Policy support is needed- Stress environmental benefits - Support program needed to reach acceptable costs- Expansion of technology specific support such as Ene.field

Thank you for your attention

More information: http://www.code2-project.eu/