Portfolio Vital Statistics - WordPress.com...2017/12/16 · 3 Hour Investor Newsletter incorporating the “Newsletter Portfolio” Year 2. Week 28-2017-Dec-16 Portfolio Vital Statistics

3 Hour Investor Newsletter incorporating the “Newsletter Portfolio” Year 2. Week 28-2017-Dec-16

Portfolio Vital Statistics

• Commenced on 10 June 2016 with $250,000.

• Sat on cash for awhile then first stocks purchased in

week of 7/7/2016

• Now worth $319,010

• Total Portfolio performance since inception 16.96% pa

• Performance on funds invested in securities since

inception 24.59%

• Cash in portfolio $252 fully invested


Current Portfolio Valuation.


Since Inception performance table

Performance since inception (PA) incl divs

Newsletter Portfolio (including cash)

16.96%

Stocks in portfolio

24.59%

XAOAI

14.9%

Star Growth Stocks

8.32%

Star income stocks

14.57%

Comment. We currently have 13 securities and about $250 in cash …over 99% invested.

Losers >10% -

Losers 5.1%-10% -

Losers 0%-5% 5

Gainers 0%-5% 0

Gainers 5.1%-10% 2

Gainers10.1% - 20% 4

Gainers 20%-30% 2

Gainers 30%-40% -

Gainers >70% 1

Portfolio comment.

• 5/14 stocks closed green for the week. (not a great week)

• All stocks are in hold territory…

3 Hour Investor Newsletter incorporating the “Newsletter Portfolio” Year 2. Week 28-2017-Dec-16 Status of US and Aus Markets.

Green RED

USA DJA 1

USA S&P500 1

USA Nasdaq 1

USA Russell 2000 1

USA VIX (inverted (means Green is shown as RED)

1

USA DJA Futures 1

USA S&P 500 Futures 1

USA NASDAQ Futures 1

USA Russell 2000 Futures 1

Aus XAOAI 1

AUS XMD 1

AUS XSOAI 1

AUS XVI (Vix) (inverted) 1

Overall market signals looks GREEN to me …if our portfolio had cash and I had stocks I’d like to buy

I’d wade on in.

ASX Indices with ROAR above 20% and above 10%

New section for this report. Here are the ASX indices which closed the week with ROAR annual)

above 20%. (purpose of this section….if an index is going up…perhaps consider looking at its

component stocks to check for anything worth buying). (if it closed green for the week I’ll mention

it)

Indices growing > 20% ROAR or over 10 but under 20%

Over 20%

Over 10%

XAOAI. All ords Total return 1

XDJ Consumer Discretionary

XEC Emerging Companies 1

XEJ ASX 200 Energy 1

XFJ ASX 200 Financials

XGD ASX 300 Gold 1

XHJ ASX 200 Health Care 1

XIJ ASX 200 Info Tech 1

XJRAI ASX 200 Resources TR 1

XMD Midcap 50 1

XMJ ASX 200 Materials 1

XMM ASX 300 Metals and Mining 1

XNJ ASX 200 Industrials 1

XPJ Property Trusts 1

XSJ Consumer Staples 1

XSOAI Small Ords TR 1

XTJ Telecommunications

XUJ ASX 200 Utilities

Comment. So if your portfolio is

in small and emerging

companies, energy and mining

and maybe consumer

staples…you’ve probably done

well. If you were in telecoms

and banks…probably not so well.

This table gives a fair read of

where you want to be. So the

question of the day…where is

your portfolio?


VALUE index update

Let’s call the value index. How it works: Filter stocks with the following criteria

1. Financial health = strong or satisfactory

2. Dividend yield >2.5%

3. PE <15

4. Price to NTA per share above zero and under 5

5. Enterprise value above $500m

6. Excludes mining stocks and most financials (as advised by Alan Hull)

• We search for (a) sharp increase or (b) decrease in stocks found by this filter.

• If there are many stocks here then “buying value stocks might be a good strategy”….

• If there are few perhaps it indicates we’re at the top of the market?

From this search the following stocks are possibly worth a look AHG, BKW, CSR, HVN, MHJ and SXL

Comment. Graph is pretty much flat doesn’t it.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Search for Value count


Selling Report. Nothing to see here

Buying Report. Nothing to see here


Stocks worth assessing as suitable for

purchase if conditions are right this week We’re fully invested at the moment…so we won’t be buying unless one of our stocks is sold.

The strategies are described below. Stocks shown meet all criteria. There are loads of things to

check out on these lists….it’s nice to see so many to work on.

Basic Strategy securities

ETF Strategy Large Cap Strategy

Lincoln Stocks Strategy

Markblatt Strategy

ARB ETHI* ABC ABC EVN

ARF GEAR ALL ALL HVN

AWC* IAA* ANN* ARF IMF*

CHC* IEM* BLD AST KMD*

CSR* IEU CCP* CAR* MIN*

CWP IHVV* CHC CHC MLX

GDI IJH CIM* DLX MNY

GMG IJP CSR* GOZ NEC*

IDR IJR CTX* IRI* NHC*

IGO IOO* DLX MIN* NST

MIN* IRU DOW MNF* PLG

MND ISO GTY MPL RRL*

NGI IVE IPH MQG S32*

NHC* IVV LNK NST SBM*

NST IZZ MND RFF SFR*

NWH NDQ MQG RWC SRX

PPC QUAL NHF* SAR* SSM

PTM SLF ORG SUL

REH VAP PMV TLS

RFF* VEU PTM

SAR* VGS SCP

SBM* SDA

SCP SGR

SFR* SVW*

As you can see from the stocks marked with * I personally buy and hold many of the stocks on these

lists. I used exactly the same strategy as shown in this newsletter for my personal holdings. Note

how many stocks there are here. This financial year has provided plenty of decent opportunities for

small investors following a strategy like the newsletter portfolio

3 Hour Investor Newsletter incorporating the “Newsletter Portfolio” Year 2. Week 28-2017-Dec-16 Strategies explained. Each strategy attempts to find stocks or ETFs that meet the following criteria.

(a) Acceptable Fundamentals

(b) Acceptable daily trade volume

(c) Acceptable market support at current prices.

Go back and read newsletter Year 2 Week 25 for full description of the strategies


Bonus Charts:

In this section I’ll sometimes list a chart that catches my eye and provide a brief comment.

If you want a stock reviewed, perhaps email me and I might include it (no promises)

Chart Comment

IMF*

• 5, 3 & 1 year returns are 15%, 14% and 60% (approx)

• Div yield prospective is > 5% gross

• PE prospective is about 12

• ROE is about 24% prospective

• EPSG consensus is about 165% Note Lincoln thinks this stock is marginal strength, however this litigation funder has had very good market support. Can it continue?

CIM*

• 5, 3 & 1 year returns are 30%, 38% and 62% (approx)

• Div yield is > 3.5% gross

• EPSG is expected to be about 47%

• PEG prospective is about 0.5 CIM has been a great stock to hold for the past year, providing both dividends and capital growth. Is it worth buying at the current price?

NHC*

• 5, 3 & 1 year returns are -6%, 5% and 46% (approx).

• Div yield is > 6% gross prospective

• PE prospective is about 10

• EPSG is forecast to be 52% If this stock delivers it might have more price appreciation?

3 Hour Investor Newsletter incorporating the “Newsletter Portfolio” Year 2. Week 28-2017-Dec-16 Parting comment

Each of these charts show some interesting moves in the past week.

USA VIX Weekly chart. The fear index is now as low as it has ever been in the past year or two. I

guess the market is not expecting volatility.

US markets seem to be steaming ahead. I guess this means the market is expecting either increased

profits or lower risk or a combination. Whatever the case money is going into these markets.

The AUD has gone for a bit of blip upwards. Can it continue?


A year of surprises.

To remind myself that there are many many surprises that hit investment markets…about a year ago

I began “collecting” such events in a log. Here are some of the entries.

• 2016 October. Crown staff in China put in prison

• 2016 Nov. Massive rotation from high priced growth stocks into lower priced “large stocks”

This was a definite market correction for growth stocks and affected stocks that Lincoln

would classify as star stocks in a bad way.

• 2016 Trump elected. Iron ore prices rise as do interest rates. Decent earthquake in

Fukishima (again). Reports that gas prices in Australia were going to rise…a lot.

• 2016 Dec. Bellamy announces disruption of market in China (much lower growth than

consensus forecast). WOW sells petrol stations to BP and cuts CTX out of 500 fuel stations

• 2017 May. New Bank Tax announced in budget. Changes to depreciation rates on

investment properties (banning deprecation on stuff already in the building) (which

blew the market up for companies that do depreciation schedules). Labour calling

for 49.5% permanent top marginal rate. Vic government removes stamp duty

concessions on new buildings for investors.

• 2017 June. Budget imposes Bank Tax. Then SA gov't imposes additional bank

tax. Oil prices dive and despite increasing interest rates USD 30yr and 10 year notes

go up in price!. Underpayment of wages smashes dominos. Amazon announces

future entry into Australia...retail stocks dive.

• 2017 July. AUD hits USD80c rising quickly. Banks imposing out of cycle interest

increases to property investors including those on interest only loans. Several

politicians found to be in breach of law which requires no citizenship of overseas

countries (they likely were not aware of the breach). China seems to be accelerating

in growth (despite earlier forecasts of slowing growth). Labour is promising to

increase top tax rate to 49.5% and to change the way that trusts are taxed (perhaps a

30% tax rate).

• 2017 Aug. Korea fires a missile over Japan. CBA suffers a "review" by ASIC and is

found to have not detected money laundering so Ian Narev resigns and share price

declines by about 10%. Oil price drops 10% in a month. Hurricane in Texas,

biggest flood ever. Bond prices are going up even in the face of rising interest

rates. USD jumps up to 93 after steep declines from 98 to 92 over Jul and Aug (safe

haven?). Several politicians are found to be dual citizens in circumstances that make

little sense and either are forced to lose their seat or go to court. ASIC prevents car

dealers from selling junk insurance (which contributed a lot to profit). Government

back flips to prevent imports of used cars not otherwise sold here...hundreds of

businesses faced with closure.

• 2017 Sep. Korea tests H Bomb. Fed Gov't offers to buy AGL coal fired power plant

which was slated for closure. ASIC bans flex commissions for car dealers (removing

a big profit stream). Chinese buyers desert the property market due to capital

controls from China (and other local matters such as increased stamp duty, inability

to get local bank funding, vacant property tax and similar). WA proposes new gold

tax and other tax increases on miners. Australian Dollar hits USD80c. Carlos Ghosn

visits Australia and within a month CEO of Nissan and CEO of Renault lose their

jobs. Massive storm hits Florida. China forbids dealing in crypto currencies and the


result is a 20% fall in bitcoin. Bitcoin has grown at a massive rate. USA Fed

declares it will start to reduce its balance sheet (slowly and at some point in future).

• 2017 Oct. Learned about initial coin offerings (to fund startups). Massive surge in

cryptocurrencies. Whistleblower tells politician that Crown Casino is skirting money

laundering rules daily and has modified poker machines to detriment of users. Libs

launch a new energy plan (requiring certainty of electricity). Massive rise in gas

prices and forecast of shortages on east coast (Liberals then pressure gas suppliers to

guarantee supply). Harvey Weinstein outed after decades of sexual misconduct

against actresses. Rio Tinto CEO and CFO to be sued by US SEC for misstatements

regarding african coal investments.

• 2017 Nov. Legal firm paradise papers issued to lawyers containing millions of

documents including covering how Apple transferred ownership from Ireland to

Jersey to avoid millions upon millions being taxable. Australian Politicians find they

must resign...due to potentially obscure rules qualifying them them to be citizens of

other countries (result political disaster). Oil prices sharply rise. Venezuela looks

set to default on Bonds (a big deal?). 32yr old Crown prince in Saudi rounds up and

arrests 11 other princes and 3 doz current and former ministers as part of an anti

corruption blitz (including several billionaires). US tax reduction bill looks likely to

pass. Amazon opens in Australia. Same Sex Marriage bill passes in Australia.

Euthanasia bill passes in Victoria.

• 2017 Dec. Bitcoin is in the news every single day and has risen 10x this year. Many other

types of Crypto currency are in the market including initial coin offerings (by companies

raising capital).

What does it all mean?

• Watch the market. Be on top of the market when it’s moving up. Be flexible. Stay in whilst

it grows. Jump out when it moves.

• I don’t believe that that I can understand the fundamentals better than the market…it’s too

complex. Instead my mantra is find stocks that have “acceptable fundamentals” and buy

them when they’re likely to go up.

• My motto might be “The act of buying is an experiment. I’m trying to find stocks that will go

up, but if I fail…close the experiment off. If the experiment pays off…let it ride.

• Enjoy the game knowing that I only need to win a few percent more than half the time and

that I know before I pony up my ante…that I will absolutely definitely without a doubt lose

some of the time and it will hurt.

• Warning. This newsletter is provided for your entertainment only, I’m not a financial adviser, I have not taken account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should therefore consider the appropriateness of any descriptions of my Newsletter and its newsletter portfolio in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs, before taking any actions.

• All views and information expressed in this newsletter are not the views of Lincoln and or its directors, agents, representatives and employees.


• Many of the graphs and screen shots are taken from Lincoln services and are fully credited to them. I’m a paid up licensee to Lincoln, otherwise all IP in their system and graphs belongs totally to them. I recommend that you consider signing up to their service…it’s a great service and I feel great value for money!

• I do invest and trade in shares, I’ll usually mark the ones that I own with (**)…however it’s safe for you to imagine that I’m either buying or selling just about any stock in the market, particularly and especially if mentioned here.

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Portfolio Vital Statistics - WordPress.com...2017/12/16 · 3 Hour Investor Newsletter incorporating the “Newsletter Portfolio” Year 2. Week 28-2017-Dec-16 Portfolio Vital Statistics