Portfolio Vital Statistics - WordPress.com · 5/26/2018 · 3 Hour Investor Newsletter incorporating the “Newsletter Portfolio” Year 2. Week 51-2018-May-26 Portfolio Vital Statistics

3 Hour Investor Newsletter incorporating the “Newsletter Portfolio” Year 2. Week 51-2018-May-26

Portfolio Vital Statistics

• Commenced on 10 June 2016 with $250,000.

• Sat on cash for awhile then first stocks purchased in

week of 7/7/2016

• Now worth $376,629

• Total Portfolio performance since inception 22.28% pa

• Performance on funds invested in securities since

inception 29.6%

• Cash in portfolio $32,500 (approx.) (about 9%)


Current Portfolio Valuation.


Since Inception performance table

Performance since inception (PA) incl divs

Newsletter Portfolio (including cash)

22.28%

Stocks in portfolio

29.6%

XJOAI

12.75%

Star Growth Stocks 11.03%

Star income stocks 11.18%

Comment. We currently have 18 securities and about $32,500 approx in cash …92% approx

invested.

Losers >10% -

Losers 5.1%-10% -

Losers 0%-5% 2

Gainers 0%-5% 3

Gainers 5.1%-10% 4

Gainers10.1% - 20% 4

Gainers 20%-30% 3

Gainers 30%-50% 1

Gainers 50%-80% 1

Portfolio comment.

• 6/18 stocks closed green for the week

• All stocks are in hold territory. All look quite safely above potential sell signals

Does your portfolio have a profile

like this…with few small losers

and mostly winners including a

few really good winners? If

not….then perhaps it’s time to

review your system


Status of US and Aus Markets.

Green RED

USA DJA 1

USA S&P500 1

USA Nasdaq 1

USA Russell 2000 1

USA VIX (inverted (means Green is shown as RED)

1

USA DJA Futures 1

USA S&P 500 Futures 1

USA NASDAQ Futures 1

USA Russell 2000 Futures 1

Aus XAOAI 1

AUS XMD 1

AUS XSOAI 1

AUS XVI (Vix) (inverted) 1

Spattering of Green amongst a few Reds……To me this feels like a signal to wait awhile…


ASX Indices with ROAR above 20% and above 10%

ASX indices which closed the week with ROAR 6month) above 20%. (purpose of this section….if an

index is going up…perhaps consider looking at its component stocks to check for anything worth

buying).

Indices growing > 20% ROAR 6month or over 10 but under 20%

Over 20%

Over 10%

XAOAI. All ords Total return

XDJ Consumer Discretionary 1

XEC Emerging Companies

XEJ ASX 200 Energy 1

XFJ ASX 200 Financials

XGD ASX 300 Gold 1

XHJ ASX 200 Health Care 1

XIJ ASX 200 Info Tech 1

XJRAI ASX 200 Resources TR 1

XMD Midcap 50

XMJ ASX 200 Materials 1

XMM ASX 300 Metals and Mining 1

XNJAI ASX 200 Industrials

XPJ Property Trusts 1

XSJ Consumer Staples 1

XSOAI Small Ords TR 1

XTJ Telecommunications

XUJ ASX 200 Utilities

Comment.

Looks to be a bit more

green creeping into the

market. If you’ve been in

energy or health or

resources your portfolio

has probably done ok


VALUE index update

Let’s call the value index. How it works: Filter stocks with the following criteria

1. Financial health = strong or satisfactory

2. Dividend yield >2.5%

3. PE <15

4. Price to NTA per share above zero and under 5

5. Enterprise value above $500m

6. Excludes mining stocks and most financials (as advised by Alan Hull)

• We search for (a) sharp increase or (b) decrease in stocks found by this filter.

• If there are many stocks here then “buying value stocks might be a good strategy”….

• If there are few perhaps it indicates we’re at the top of the market?

From this search the following stocks are possibly worth a look: BKW, CSR*, GNC, TGH, WHC

Comment. Graph still flat…(sorry for gaps)…prediction…one day this chart will move strongly

up…who knows when…but we’ll see it here.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Search for Value count


Selling and Buying Report. We had quite a few weeks since Mid March with zero transactions and we were basically fully

invested. However in the past few weeks we had A2M “lightened” when the share price started to

wobble and we felt uncomfortable with the overweight position (it was more than 20% of our

portfolio). We also sold RHL and NCK (when they hit their sell signals).

We invested all the freed up cash…into REH, CDA and HACK….and then A2M hit its sell signal so we

sold the rest (we’re still sitting on that freed up cash…waiting for a green light from the market…if it

never comes then we probably should be happy to sit forever or must change our strategy to suit)


Stocks worth assessing as suitable for

purchase if conditions are right this week I’ve not updated this list from a few weeks ago…caution when reading this.

Basic Strategy securities

ETF Strategy

Large Cap Strategy Lincoln Stocks Strategy

Value+Market Strategy

HACK

You can safely assume that I either own the above stocks or are thinking about adding them to my

holdings. There are some here with ugly historical stories (look at TLS for example)…and yet they are

still on my list. (note I’d aim to buy no more than 3% of my portfolio in buying such stocks…so even

if they go down the exposure to my overall portfolio would be small.

3 Hour Investor Newsletter incorporating the “Newsletter Portfolio” Year 2. Week 51-2018-May-26 Strategies explained. Each strategy attempts to find stocks or ETFs that meet the following criteria.

(a) Acceptable Fundamentals

(b) Acceptable daily trade volume

(c) Acceptable market support at current prices.

Go back and read newsletter Year 2 Week 25 for full description of the strategies


Bonus Charts:

In this section I’ll sometimes list a chart that catches my eye and provide a brief comment.

If you want a stock reviewed, perhaps email me and I might include it (no promises)

Chart Comment

A2M Returns inc divs

5year 3 year 1 year

NA 177% 211%%

Strong Stock ROA 50% EPSG 100%+ Div prospective above 0% gross After a bit of recent bad news this stock hit its sell signal. Still sporting a very high PE. Buyers have been very much focussed on the “growth story” perhaps now that story has dissipated? Seems to be that the slightest bit of bad news can trip up a stock like this

APX* Returns inc divs(approx.)

5year 3 year 1 year

NA% 152% 201%

• Borderline Star stock

• Div yield prospective > 1% gross

• PE prospective is about 32

• ROA about 26%

• EPSG forecast about 60% A high PE stock trading on anticipation of rapid growth…if you’ve had this in the portfolio for the past 3 years you’d be happy. Is it ok to buy now?.


FXL* Returns inc divs(approx.)

5year 3 year 1 year

-9% -10% 29%

• Marginal Stock

• EPSG -4%

• Div yield prospective 4%

• PE prospective is about 9x

• ROE forecast 17% An example of a low priced stock which perhaps was oversold and has started to climb the wall of worry. If it has a decent set of annual numbers…then perhaps it can climb quite a bit (I’m currently up about 20% on this one)

3 Hour Investor Newsletter incorporating the “Newsletter Portfolio” Year 2. Week 51-2018-May-26 Parting comment

International Markets. Up, down or sideways?

What do you see when you look at these markets.

Some will see an unbroken upward trend. Some will see sideways. Some will see down markets

with lower highs and deeper lows.

Personally I still see opportunity and will follow the growth market strategy ….buy when several

markets close green for the week…the Vix is trending down and the individual stock has market

support. It’s not yet time to dust off the down market strategy….although we do have that one

ready to go and keep reviewing it regularly so that we are ready…perhaps we’ll get a chance to

describe it at some point in future

What does this all mean. Who knows?....however if property prices do go into decline that’s not a

good thing for an investor banking on rising share prices. What will I do differently?...I’m just going

to stick to my formulae of paying close attention to sell signals and to be careful in entering the

market. I still think I have to expose my capital to the markets…not sit on the sideline. (note that I

will however also in the background…quietly prepare my downmarket strategy so that it’s ready to

dust off when required).

Daily Oil Charts

What’s going on here…seems a dramatic dive in prices…finally after a fairly relentless rise. Perhaps

this will mean (a) oil stocks take a bit of a breather and (b) anything that likes cheap oil to start

gaining (had oil prices continued recent massive hikes …one can imagine a large effect on the real

economy)

What does it all mean? This is my message to myself

• Stick to my sell signal process. Go to 100% cash if required


• Don’t assume I can understand the market, or even individual stocks…they are simply too

complicated to understand. Every holding is an experiment to be proven right or wrong by

the market.

• Buy good quality stocks that have market support and let them run for as long as they

appreciate.

• Be disciplined…check for sells daily…check for buys weekly.

• If there’s nothing to buy…don’t chase…just wait. If there’s something to sell…don’t

wait…sell. (note to self…read this sentence a few times and pay attention…I can see that

I’ve been guilty of breaking this rule last week!)

What’s your plan?.

• Can you describe it clearly.

• Can you write it down.

• Can you follow it with discipline.

• Do you know if you’re following your plan or straying?

If you don’t have a written plan what is the very first thing you can do to make the plan more

concrete, clearer and likely to be followed? Can you do that first thing today?

• Warning. This newsletter is provided for your entertainment only, I’m not a financial adviser, I have not taken account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should therefore consider the appropriateness of any descriptions of my Newsletter and its newsletter portfolio in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs, before taking any actions.

• All views and information expressed in this newsletter are not the views of Lincoln and or its directors, agents, representatives and employees.

• Many of the graphs and screen shots are taken from Lincoln services and are fully credited to them. I’m a paid up licensee to Lincoln, otherwise all IP in their system and graphs belongs totally to them. I recommend that you consider signing up to their service…it’s a great service and I feel great value for money!

• I do invest and trade in shares, I’ll usually mark the ones that I own with (** or *)…however it’s safe for you to imagine that I’m either buying or selling just about any stock in the market, particularly and especially if mentioned here.

Documents

Portfolio Vital Statistics - WordPress.com · 5/26/2018 · 3 Hour Investor Newsletter incorporating the “Newsletter Portfolio” Year 2. Week 51-2018-May-26 Portfolio Vital Statistics