Upload
others
View
1
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
1
7.0147.014
Lecture 29 & 30:Lecture 29 & 30:
Population GrowthPopulation Growth
April 30 & May 2April 30 & May 2
20072007
Population Age Distribution
More Developed CountriesAge Interval
Number of people (Millions) FemalesMales
80 - 9070 - 8060 - 7050 - 6040 - 5030 - 4020 - 3010 - 20 0 -10
Long periods ofno net growth lead toeven distribution
Population Summary forthe US
2000
2025
2050
http://blue.census.gov/
Population Age Distribution
Less Developed CountriesAge
300300Number of people (Millions) FemalesMales
2
Population Summary forUganda
2000
2025
2050
http://blue.census.gov/
Very high reproductive rate
Life Tables
x = age or interval (defined)
N0 = number of individuals in original cohort (defined)
dx = number of original cohort dying during interval
Nx = number of individuals surviving to age x (measured)
lx = proportion of individuals surviving to age x
lx = Nx / N0
mx = per capita births during age interval x to x+1 (measured)
“age specific fecundity” = female offspring produced per female
Age
Number Surviving
Proportion Surviving
X Nx lx
0 100 1.0 1 50 .5 2 40 .4 3 30 .3 4 0 0
A COHORT LIFE TABLE (for Unicorns)N0 = 100
lx = Nx/No
SURVIVORSHIP CURVES
Age
Log
(Num
ber S
urvi
ving
)
Type I
Type II
Type III
High Probabilityof Survival
Steady Survival
High Probabilityof Survival
Low Probabilityof SurvivalLow Probability
of Survival
3
SURVIVORSHIP CURVES
Homo sapiens
Spergula vernalis(grass)
Common BirdSpecies
Age
Log
(Num
ber S
urvi
ving
)
Age
Log
(Num
ber S
urvi
ving
)
Age
Log
(Num
ber S
urvi
ving
)
See Fig 5 4 .1Purves
Age
Number
Surviving
Proportion
Surviving
Average Offspring per
female of age x
(age-specific fecundity )
X Nx lx mx
0 100 1.0 0
1 50 .5 4
2 40 .4 2.5
3 30 .3 0
4 0 0 0
A COHORT LIFE TABLE (for Unicorns)N0 = 100
Age
Number
Surviving
Proportion
Surviving
Average Offspring per
female of age x
(age-specific fecundity)
Realized Fecundity
Values
X Nx lx mx lxmx
0 100 1.0 0 0
1 50 .5 4 2
2 40 .4 2.5 1
3 30 .3 0 0
4 0 0 0 0
R0 = ! lxmx = 3
A COHORT LIFE TABLE (for Unicorns)N0 = 100
R0 = Net Replacement = 3
What if you can’t follow cohort?
Mastodon Skeleton
http://www.state.nd.us/ndfossils/Education/animals/mastodon%20%20030612.html
4
Age Interval
X
Number Surviving at
Beginning of X
Nx
Number Dying
dx
Proportion Surviving
by Age X
lx
0 100 50 1.0
1 50 10 .5
2 40 10 .4
3 30 30 .3
4 0 0 0
A STATIC LIFE TABLE (for Unicorns)
Sample of 100 unicorns N0 = 100
measuredNx – dx = Nx+1 lx = Nx/No
Lecture 30Lecture 30
Equilibrium Density
r = (b – d)
b = d thus r = 0
Density-Dependant Factors Regulate Population Size
b = d
Population Density (N)
Density-dependent deathrate, d
Density-dependent birthrate, b
stabilizing
b> d, N b< d, N
NOTE:Ignore slide on website
US Population ClockUS Population Clockhttp://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/popclock
1212
2626
1313
88
295,974,238295,974,238
20052005
11 seconds11 seconds13131111Net gain of oneNet gain of oneperson everyperson every
27 seconds27 seconds25252222One internationalOne internationalmigrant (net) everymigrant (net) every
13 seconds13 seconds12121313One death everyOne death every
8 seconds8 seconds9988One birth everyOne birth every
301,723,494301,723,494Total PopulationTotal Population
200720072004200420032003
4/29/2007 at 14:13 AM EDT
5
Simulation of Human Population Growthover Earth History
Take a Look….
movie
start at 53 secondsjump to 2:11
Human Population Growth
Year
Pop
ulat
ion
(Bill
ions
)
1
2
3
4
5
6
Agriculture &domestification ofanimals
4 million 7 million
HunterGatherers
Adapted from: Cohen, “How Many People Can the Earth Support”
10,000 BC 8,000 BC 2,000 AD04,000 BC
Bubonic Plague
Industrial Revolution
(1400)
(1800)
Modern Medicine(reduced mortality)
(1900)
FossilFuel
6,591,890,041(4/29/2007)
http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html
6,363,174,549(4/28/2004)
6,432,150,287(4/22/05)
Now projected toreach 9 Billion
and level off
6 Billion(1999)
6,289,870,258(4/30/2003)
Four “Evolutions” in Human Population Growth
Adapted from: Cohen, “How Many People Can the Earth Support”
Evolution Driver
Midpoint
Population (billions)
Doubling Time (years) before after
Local Agriculture
8000 B.C.
0.005
40,000 - 300,000
1,400 – 3,000
Global Agriculture
1750 A.D.
0.75
750 – 1,800
100 – 130
Public Health
1950
2.5
87
36
Fertility Control
1970
3.7
34 (peak)
>40 (since 1990)
F
and recall from an earlier lecture and recall from an earlier lecture …………
Popu
latio
n si
ze (b
illion
s)Po
pula
tion
size
(billi
ons)
COCO22
NN22O (310 x COO (310 x CO22))
CHCH4 4 (21x CO(21x CO22))
Population sizePopulation size
380380
340340
300300
260260
18001800
14001400
10001000
60060000 10001000500500 15001500 20002000
CO
CO
22 an
d N
and
N22O
O
ppm
Vpp
mV
Time, Calendar years (A.D.)Time, Calendar years (A.D.)
CH
CH
44 pp
bVpp
bV
66
44
22
00
Falkowski and Tchernov 2004
6
Demographic TransitionDemographic Transitionextremely important concept!extremely important concept!
Stage 1
High birth rateHigh, but fluctuating
death rate
Stage 2
Declining death ratesContinuing high birth
rates
Stage 3
Declining birth anddeath rates
Stage 4
Low death rateLow, but fluctuating
birth rate
Demographic Transition
Krebs, 2001 (Figure 28.2)
b >> db >> d
b = db = d
http://www.census.gov/ipc/prod/wp02/wp02-1.pdf
Time it takes to add a billionTime it takes to add a billion
doubling time52 years
doubling time54 years