1

POLITICAL PUBLIC OPINION OF

MONTENEGRO

NATO integration

December, 2016

2

Sample

• The sample is representative for the adult citizens of Montenegro and was

implemented in all municipalities in Montenegro

• The study included a total of 1029 respondents

• Sample: double stratified with random selection of respondents within defined

enumeration areas

• Standard statistical error is +/- 3.1% for incidence of 50% with a confidence

interval of 95%

• Post stratification was performed by gender, age and nationality

• The survey was conducted from 05 to 14 December 2016

• The research was supported by the NATO Public Diplomacy, US Embassy and

the Embassy of Hungary in Montenegro.

3

Generally, would you say that Montenegro is

on the - %

32.8

35.3

31.8

Right way Wrong way I don’t know, I can not estimate

4

Montenegro is on:Trend - %

41.5

46.4 45.2

33.9 36.8

35.1 36.3 34.8

37.4

32.8

24.5 21.5 22.7

32.5 34.8

32.8

29.3

34.7

31.4

35.3

Oct, 2009 Nov, 2010 Sep, 2011 Sep, 2012 Mart, 2013 Sep, 2014 Jul, 2015 Nov, 2015 Jun, 2016 Dec, 2016

Right way Wrong way

5

TRUST IN INSTITUTIONS– SUM mostly and

big trust %

18.6

35.4

38.5

40.9

42.4

42.6

43.8

45.0

45.3

47.5

52.3

53.8

59.3

Montenegrin Orthodox Church

Political Parties

Parliament

Government

EU Delegation to Montenegro

Judiciary

Army

President of Montenegro

NGOs

Police

Health system

Serbian Orthodox Church

Education system

6

TRUST IN INSTITUTIONS– TREND %

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0

Government

President of Montenegro

Parliament of Montenegro

Judiciary

Police

Serbian Orthodox Chrch

Montenegrin Orthodox Church

Army of Montenegro

Political parties

Health system

Education system

NGOs

EU Delegation to Montenegro

Jun 2016 vs Decembar 2016

Dec'16

Jun' 16

7

TRUST IN POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS– TREND %

42.5

46.7

40.7

46.2

42.2

Sept'14 Jul'15 Nov' 15 Jun' 16 Dec'16

8

Average mark for politicians on the scale from 1 to 5

1.68

1.73

1.78

1.83

1.93

1.94

2.06

2.06

2.12

2.17

2.18

2.20

2.22

2.23

2.25

2.29

2.33

2.35

2.41

2.41

2.44

2.70

2.83

2.93

Dragan Purko IVANČEVIĆAzra JASAVIĆ

Andrija POPOVIĆRaško KONJEVIĆ

Ranko KRIVOKAPIĆŽarko RAKČEVIĆ

Predrag BULATOVIĆVujica LAZOVIĆIvan BRAJOVIĆ

Nebojša MEDOJEVIĆJanko VUČINIĆAndrija MANDIĆ

Srđan MILIĆMilan KNEŽEVIĆDamir ŠEHOVIĆ

Goran DANILOVIĆSnežana JONICA

Aleksandar DAMJANOVIĆMiodrag LEKIĆ

Duško MARKOVIĆDritan ABAZOVIĆMilo ĐUKANOVIĆ

Aleksa BEČIĆFilip VUJANOVIĆ

9

Ranking of parties% identified

36.8

4.1

2.3

7.8

21.0

.4

.4

6.3

12.2

1.6

.1

3.4

.5

1.1

.8

1.4

DPS

SDP

SDCG

SNP

DF

PCG

LPCG

DEMOS

DEMOKRATE CRNE GORE

URA

CDU

BS

DUA

AA

FORCA

HGI

10

According to your opinion, should Montenegro

become a member of the EU? - %

Yes ; 63.0

No; 24.6

I don’t have a opinion about it;

12.4

11

SUPPORT TO THE EU: TREND %

72.4 72.8

76.1

70.4

62.3

70.4

65.5

59.9

60.9 61.1

63.3 63.7

61.7 63

Okt ’07. Feb ’08. Okt ’09. Okt ’010. Sep'11 Dec'11 Jul'12 Sept'12 Mart '13 Sep'14 Jul'15 Nov'15 Jun'16 Dec'16

12

If tomorrow you would vote about Montenegrin

membership to NATO, your response would be%

Yes; 39.5

No; 39.7

Dont have a

opinion; 20.8

13

TREND:

on referendum FOR and AGAINST NATO- %

26.9

31.2 32.6

30.9

38.3 37.3 36.8

31.0

35.4 36.6 36.5 37.1 39.5

46.9 44

39.7 39.5

36.1

42.4

38.4

52.1

44.5

37.3 36.2 36.4

39.7

Nov

’08. Oct ’ 09. Okt' 010 Sep'11 Dec'11 Jul'12 Sept'12 Mart'13 Sept '14 Jul'15 Nov' 15 Jun' 16 Dec'16

YES NO

14

REFERENDUM NATO – comitted ones %

Yes, 49.8 No, 50.2

15

On whom Montenegro should rely in Foreign Policy? %

20.0

26.8

23.1

14.5

16.8

14.4 15.4

8.5

10.8 11.8

6.9

9.8

38.3

41.0 42.0

EU USA RUSSIA

Not at all A little bit In great measure Completely I can not estimate

16

On whom Montenegro should rely in Foreign Policy– SUM to a large extent and completely %

27.2

15.4

20.5

EU USA RUSSIA

17

On whom Montenegro should rely in Foreign Policy– SUM to a large extent and completely %

- TREND

34.4

31.2

27.2

19.5

16.6 15.4

19.5

24.2

20.5

Nov'15 Jun' 16 Dec'16

EU USA RUSSIA

18

CONTRIBUTION OF NATO INTEGRATION- %

19.2

29.8

32.3

32.7

37.8

39.1

39.5

40.1

40.7

40.7

41.2

41.6

42

42.1

42.6

43.4

57

57.9

Development of relations between MNE and Russia

Responsability of the Government to the citizens

Costs and expenses on defense system

Development of relations between MNE and Serbia

Decision-making freedom of Montenegro in Foreign…National unison in MNE

Political stability in Montenegro

Development of relations between MNE and and ex…Development of the MNE economy

Development of Democracy and Human Rights in…Efficiency of Defense system

Peace and Stability in Balkan region

Investments in MNE, incoming capital from abroad

Security of Montenegrin citizens

Peace and Stability in MNE

Security of Montenegrin borders

Development of relations between MNE and EU

Development of relations between MNE and USA

CONTRIBUTION OF NATO INTEGRATION %

TREND

19

43.2 42.3

29.9

19.5

39.9

52.6 49.9

36.2 41.2

37.5 38.9 39.9 39.6 40.9 43.2 41.9

33.0 36.0

51.5 49.3

38.0

25.7

50.7

70.0 65.8

46.5 50.7

47.4 46.4 49.2 49.0 50.0 52.0 50.4

40.4 48.1

nov'15 jun'16

Do you believe that, no matter what is your opinion,

Montenegro will become a NATO member state? %

20

53.8

20.5

25.7

Yes No I can’t estimate

Do you believe that, no matter what is your opinion,

Montenegro will become a NATO member state? % TREND

21

51.0

57.1 53.8

15.0 18.4

20.5

Nov'15 Jun'16 Dec'16

Yes No

A new Government of Montenegro has been recently formed with the new Prime

Minister Mr Duško Marković. Do you think that this Government will have a

better, same or worse results than the previous government? %

22

19.6

27.1

22.2

31.1

It will have better

results

It will have the same

results as the previous

one

It will have worse

results than the previous

one

I don’t know, I can’t estimate