49
Csil Milano Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new regional competitiveness and employment objective for the 2007 - 2013 period in the fields of the knowledge economy and the environment, in line with the Lisbon and Gothenburg objectives Call for tenders by open procedure N° 2004 CE 16 0 AT 039 Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new regional competitiveness and employment objective for the 2007 - 2013 period Vol. II Coutry Report. DENMARK Prepared for: European Commission December 2005 DG REGIONAL POLICY Conception and analysis, accession negotiations unit CSIL, Centre for Industrial Studies- Milan EPRC, European Policies Research Centre and FAI- Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde - Glasgow DMIO, Department of Management and Industrial Organisation, Marche Polytechnic University - Ancona Mazars & Guérard, Evaluation & Pilotage des politiques publiques-Paris Country Expert: Mr. Hallgeir Aalbu, EuroFutures-Stockholm

Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    1

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano

Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new regional competitiveness and employment objective for the 2007 - 2013 period in the fields of the knowledge economy and the environment, in line with the Lisbon and Gothenburg objectives

Call for tenders by open procedure N° 2004 CE 16 0 AT 039

Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new regional competitiveness and

employment objective for the 2007 - 2013 period

Vol. II Coutry Report. DENMARK

Prepared for: European Commission December 2005 DG REGIONAL POLICY Conception and analysis, accession negotiations unit

CSIL, Centre for Industrial Studies- Milan

EPRC, European Policies Research Centre and FAI- Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde - Glasgow

DMIO, Department of Management and Industrial Organisation, Marche Polytechnic University - Ancona

Mazars & Guérard, Evaluation & Pilotage des politiques publiques-Paris

Country Expert: Mr. Hallgeir Aalbu, EuroFutures-Stockholm

Page 2: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano

DISCLAIMER

This report was produced by a consortium led by CSIL-Centre for Industrial Studies (Milan) for

the Regional Policy Directorate General and represents the views of the contractor. These views

were produced in order to provide analytical support for the Commission services. They have

not been adopted by the Commission and do not necessarily represent the view of the

Commission itself or the Directorate General for Regional Policy.

The Team takes full responsibility for the data, information and judgments expressed in the

present report.

CSIL - CENTRO STUDI

INDUSTRIA LEGGERA Scrl

Corso Monforte 15 20122 Milano - Italy

Tel. +39 02 796630 Fax +39 02 780703 [email protected] www.csildevelopment.com

Cod. Fiscale e Partita Iva 04825320155

CCIAA Iscriz. n. 1042964

Reg. Soc. Trib. Milano n. 197622

Page 3: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

3

TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.................................................................................................5

1 Scope and methodology ...........................................................................................9 1.1 Aim of the report ...................................................................................................9 1.2 Methodology for context analysis.............................................................................9 1.3 Structure of the report ......................................................................................... 10

2. General economic conditions ................................................................................13

3. Innovation and knowledge economy ....................................................................17

4. Accessibility..........................................................................................................19 4.1. Access to transport infrastructure ......................................................................... 19 4.2. Access to telecommunications and information technologies .................................... 24

5. Environment and risk prevention ..........................................................................27 5.1 General analysis .................................................................................................. 27 5.2 Specific Features ................................................................................................. 28

6. Implementation of Structural Funds .....................................................................29

7. Policy priorities assessment .................................................................................31 7.1. Findings from the statistical analysis ..................................................................... 31 7.2 Findings from the field analysis ............................................................................. 32

ANNEX I: Methodology for transport indicators ........................................................39

ANNEX II: Telecom indicators levels.........................................................................43

ANNEX III: Methodology for environment indicators ................................................45

ANNEX IV: Bibliography and sources of information .................................................49

Page 4: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

4

LIST OF ACRONYMS

CIS Community Innovation Survey

DG Regio Directorate General of Regional Policy of the European Commission

ERDF European Regional Development Fund

EKC Environmental Kuznets Curve

EPO European Patent Office

ESPON European Spatial Planning Observation Network

FA Factor Analysis

GDP Gross Domestic Product

ICT Information and Communication Technology

INRA International Research Associates (Europe)

NUTS Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics

PC Personal Computer

PCA Principal Components Analysis

PPS Purchasing Power Standards

R&D Research & Development

SF Structural Funds

TLC Telecommunication

Page 5: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

5

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This Report offers an assessment of economic conditions and policy priorities for the regions falling under

the new Competitiveness and Employment Objective 2007-2013.

It is structured as follows:

1) the report presents some statistical data on the general economic conditions of the country.

2) a statistical analysis on the three ERDF themes: a) Innovation and the Knowledge economy; b)

Accessibility; c) Environment and Risk Prevention.

3) a discussion of the current experience with Structural Funds and some implementation issues.

4) a set of policy priorities as perceived by the team of independent experts. The methodology, sources of

data and description of indicators are explained in detail in Vol. I of the Report, that should be duly

considered.

Contributors to the Report include: the statistical team, the core team, thematic experts and the country

experts. The final version has been prepared under the responsibility of the core team (Milan).

Eligible Regions: the whole country is eligible, and considered as one NUTS II.

ß General Economic Conditions

Population density in Denmark is very close to the reference average of EU Competitiveness

regions. The national average for the share of employment in the primary sector is slightly

above the EU benchmark, while the share of employment in manufacturing is 16% lower of

the reference average.

In terms of economic performance the country ranking is high. GDP per capita is slightly higher

than the benchmark, unemployment well below, GDP growth similar to the average EU eligible

region, but productivity per employee growth is higher.

The most vulnerable part of the country are the islands, including Bornholm (50,000

inhabitants). The stronger economic area is the capital city, surrounded by a large commuting

area (most of Zealand).

Page 6: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

6

ß Innovation and knowledge economy

The innovation potential of Denmark can be ranked as intermediate. R&D expenditure is over

the benchmark, and the number of patents applications is relatively high, and the share of

firms’ turnover due to new products, as well. Employment in hi-tech manufacturing is well

below the benchmark, while employment in hi-tech services is higher. The share of population

with tertiary education is very high.

ß Accessibility

Multimodal transport accessibility and connectivity to transport terminals by car is ranked

intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the country are very close to the EU-15

average. For freight transport, the pattern is different, with an increasing role of railway,

usually declining elsewhere. However there is 15 years scenario of the rail mode for the

country, and an increase for cars and trucks. Pipelines play an important role for the transport

of commodities The TEN-T priority projects of interest for Denmark include the Oresund fixed

link, the Ferner Baelt/Ferhmarnbelt railway, and the Baltic Motorway of the sea.

ICT/TLC indicators are high, as in other Nordic countries, on all dimension, including household

with internet access, holding a computer, and with broadband access (the latter more than

three times the benchmark).

ß Environment and risk prevention

The overall ranking for the country indicators in this area is intermediate. For energy

sustainability, efficiency and self-sufficiency are over the benchmark, while renewable

resources play a limited role. The environmental impact of transport may be lower with more

non fuel transportation than what is available. Rural and natural assets show an adequate

degree of protection, but e quite low degree of wilderness. Natural risk is low but technological

risk, while below the benchmark, is not negligible.

ß Implementation of Structural Funds in the current programming period

The country is currently eligible to the current Objective 2, with a multi-regional programme

covering one tenth of the population. In terms of current priorities, around one half are

targeted to the productive environment (mainly SMEs, tourism, RTDI, each with around 15%).

Page 7: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

7

Around 27% is going in human resources, 9% in ICT and the remaining in very small

measures in transport, energy, environment, social infrastructures, environment, etc.

ß Policy priorities for discussion

The key message of the analysis is that in Denmark the ERDF can offer a contribute focussing

on the priority Innovation and the knowledge economy, in combination with a limited allocation

to ICTs for SMEs. Transport accessibility and environment and risk protection, are only for very

specific projects to be considered for ERDF funding, given the limited funds available.

While the innovation indicators in the Denmark are already goods, the country needs a

competitive jump top face global competition. A balanced combination of funding of RTDI

capacities, stimulation innovation in SMEs and promoting entrepreneurship seems advisable,

while the scope for new financial instrument or incubators is very limited.

Page 8: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

8

Page 9: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

9

1 Scope and methodology

1.1 Aim of the report

The aim of this Country Report is to offer the European Commission an overview of the

strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats faced by the regions eligible for the new

Competitiveness objective 2007-2013. It focuses on the three ERDF themes listed in the draft

regulation, and it has been prepared as a background document, with a view to supporting the

Commission in its own policy priorities analysis and negotiation with the Member States.

As a part of a comprehensive study on 19 countries including 167 regions, the present Country

Report is designed as a summary assessment of some key issues. It is a preliminary

assessment that should be completed by a much more detailed structural and policy analysis

needed at a later stage for the preparation of the Operative Programmes. Moreover, as

explained in detail in Vol. I (Statistical Analysis), and as requested by the Terms of Reference,

the present report is based mainly on standardised regional statistics and a common cross-

county approach. This has obvious advantages in terms of comparisons and benchmarking, but

is not designed to fully capture specific features based on local data, and this fact should be

duly considered when using it as a reference.

1.2 Methodology for context analysis

The analysis at regional level presents the following sections: general economic structure,

innovation and the knowledge economy, accessibility, environmental and risk prevention. For

each section a brief description is given according to a short list of indicators with the following

characteristics:

- they are consistent and available at NUT2 level;

- they are relevant for the ERDF thematic approach;

- they are, as far as possible, policy-oriented.

The choice of this set of indicators comes from the need to provide guiding principles for policy

priorities, rather than to develop comprehensive regional statistical data. For this reason it

should be clear that they give some highlights of the major trends in the regions and do not

offer a complete picture of all the needs and weaknesses experienced by the regions.

Page 10: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

10

The rationale of the data processing is the following:

- for each aspect (economic structure plus three themes) a linear composite indicator

is created and the region is ranked in comparison with all the other eligible regions;

- for each theme (except Environmental risks) the degree of correlation with the

economic performance is investigated, by means of a correlation analysis.

The basic idea is to discuss the main thematic trends in the regions, with respect to the ERDF

eligible interventions, in the light of the economic structure and trends and the relative

position of the regions as compared to a given benchmark (the EU eligible regions average).

This reading of the data helps to discover combinations of, for example, High Innovation and

Low Economic Performance, that may suggest the existence of unexploited potential, hence an

opportunity to invest more on transfer and adaptation than on R&D or tertiary education per

se. This analysis is included in Sections 2 to 5.

This set of information is then discussed from a more qualitative point of view on the basis of

inputs coming from an assessment of the current SF programming period and lessons learnt in

the field analysis carried out by the national expert.

1.3 Structure of the report

Section 2 briefly summarises the general economic conditions for the eligible regions, using the

following average annual data (2000-2002): regional population and its national share,

population density, employment share of manufacturing, a ‘rural/urban’ and a ‘presence of

manufacturing’ classification; and 1995-2002 averages for GDP per capita, rate of

unemployment, growth of GDP, labour productivity growth per employee, and economic

performance ranking. The latter ranking is crucial in the analysis. It is based on a linear

combination of two factors (‘levels’ and ‘growth’) arising from a factor analysis (see Vol. I for

details). Each data set is presented in comparison with a benchmark given by the average of

the EU 168 regions eligible for the objective. Often some additional macroeconomic

information is also included.

The following section is on Innovation and Knowledge Economy. It presents regional average

annual data (mostly 1995-2002) on R&D expenditure as a share of GDP, EPO applications per

million inhabitants, percentage of employment in high-tech services, share of population with

tertiary education, share of firms’ turnover due to new products (CIS data), and an overall

Page 11: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

11

classification based on a factor analysis. Regions are classified High, Intermediate or Low

performing in innovation with a combination of these data.

Section 4 is about Accessibility. It presents data on TLC and ICT (share of firms with Internet

access and websites and share of households with a PC and access to the Internet) and data

on transport indicators (the ESPON multimodal accessibility potential and connectivity to

terminals by car). The analysis is supplemented by recent and forecasted trends in travel

demand by mode (DG TREN data and scenario at 2020 (Tremove). A multi-index analysis is

given in the Annex.

Section 5 looks at Environment and Risk prevention. This includes standardised data on energy

sustainability (electricity efficiency, self-sufficiency, renewable sources and ranking); the

environmental impact of transport (vehicle density, non-fuel transport, anthropic degree,

urban/rural typology); natural and technological risk (flood hazard potential, burnt areas and

polluting sites). The reader should note that these data cannot cover specific sub-regional

environmental risks, but consider regional averages.

Section 6 gives a quick overview of the current 2000-2006 programming period, based on a

financial breakdown by re-classified priority and some qualitative comments based on the

evaluation results.

The last section is about the policy priorities assessment. The first part of it presents the

results of a correlation analysis between Economic Performance and Innovation, Access, and

Environment summary indicators. A similar cross-reading is given for Economic Performance,

Accessibility and Environment, while the presence of high Natural or Technological Risks is

considered as a critical issue per se.

After this combined reading of performance and structural data, the following section is more

qualitative, and based on other sources of evidence, including interviews with stakeholders,

official documents, evaluation reports, academic research, and the personal assessment by the

country expert. This leads to the suggestion of some indicative regional policy priorities, based

on the available evidence, to be checked at a later stage when the national frameworks and

regional programmes are available.

The report ends with a brief discussion of some implementation issues.

Page 12: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

12

Page 13: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

13

2. General economic conditions

Denmark, differently from other small Northern countries in terms of surface (such as

Benelux), has a lower density of population, which scores around the reference average of the

168 eligible regions. Overall, the region has an intermediate degree of rurality/urbanization

and an intermediate presence of manufacturing activities.

Tab. 1 Structural indicators

Population

(thousands)

Population

density

Share of

primary sectors

on total

employment

Share of

manufacturing

on total

employment

Rural/urban

classification

Presence of

manufac-turing

Denmark 5,356 124 3.57 17.02 Intermediate Intermediate

EU eligible regions 313,711 129 3.34 20.18 Source: Eurostat –see vol. I

Tables 2-3 highlight the features of the high economic performance of Denmark. First, the per

capita GDP stands above the reference average, while the dynamics of GDP is slightly inferior.

Moreover, the employment performance has not affected the growth of productivity: in fact,

while the rate of unemployment is remarkably below the reference average, the dynamics of

labour productivity is more sustained.

Tab. 2 Economic performance indicators

GDP per capita Rate of

unemployment

Growth of GDP Growth of GDP per

employed person

Overall

Denmark 25,617 4.61 2.26 1.23 High

Average of EU

eligible regions

24,162 6.42 2.34 0.99

Sources: Eurostat and DG Regio – see vol. I

Page 14: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

14

Tab. 3 Economic performance indicators (European eligible regions=100)

GDP per capita Rate of unemployment Growth of GDP Growth of GDP per employed

person

106 72 96 124 Sources: Eurostat and DG Regio – see vol. I

As the whole country is one NUTS2 region, we will not discuss internal disparities within

Denmark. The most vulnerable part of Denmark consists of a number of smaller island

communities. Bornholm is the largest of these islands with 50,000 inhabitants. After some

years with moderate growth, the capital region has been the fastest developing part of the

country during recent years.

Measured by per capita incomes, Danish living standards have been in the top handful of OECD

countries for several decades. Moreover, Denmark has paid great attention to its social goals

such as income equality and environmental sustainability. Twenty years of comprehensive

reforms have put the economy on a robust footing without any short-term macroeconomic

imbalances. Denmark’s performance has been built on the foundation of a well functioning job

market, openness to trade and a comprehensive welfare system.

According to commuting data Denmark had 34 travel-to-work areas in 2000. This is 12 less

than in 1992. This increased commuting is a consequence of a more specialised workforce,

growing mobility, geographical diversity of new housing and rising housing prices in the cities,

which makes it more attractive to live in the surrounding area. In addition, most new jobs

have been created in the cities in recent years. The increased level of commuting has a

positive impact on the regional balance in Denmark. Thanks to increased commuting part of

the income growth has moved from the places of work in the cities to households in the

surrounding areas.

The commuter region around Copenhagen, which now covers most of Zealand, has grown

exceptionally fast in the 1990s. Holding 40 percent of the population in Denmark, this region is

the largest commuter region in the country. Also, the commuter regions around Århus, Vejle

and Aalborg have grown significantly. Approximately two thirds of the population live in the

commuter regions around the four largest cities in Denmark. The smallest commuter regions

are single municipalities located on islands, such as Læsø, Ærø and Samsø.

There is a trend towards concentration of young people in the large cities. Many young people

move to the cities to get an education. In the period 1990-2002 the commuter regions around

Page 15: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

15

the large cities experienced the highest rise in population figures. By contrast, in several

geographically marginal areas population figures have fallen because people move away.

There are not very large regional differences in disposable income per capita in Denmark. The

commuter region of Copenhagen performs above the national average in terms of both earned

income and disposable income. On Zealand and in a belt across Central Jutland the earned

income per capita is just above or below the national average. Three commuter regions –

Nakskov, Langeland and Læsø – have a disposable income per capita that is more than 10

percent below the national average. The regional balance in disposable income has largely

been stable during the last decade whereas there is a growing unbalance in earned income per

capita has somewhat decreased. This situation is mainly due to the relatively low growth rate

in the marginal areas. The regionally balanced disposable income per capita is the result of

regional income redistribution, through taxation, compensation and transfer systems.

The annual average employment growth rates were in 1994-2002 largest in city regions like

especially Copenhagen, Århus, Aalborg, Vejle, Kolding and Holbæk. Outside the large urban

areas the employment rate were not as high and in some parts of the country the employment

rate decreased; Bornholm, southern Funen, Lolland-Falster, Frederikshavn, Lemvig and

Haderslev. The relatively slow development in marginal areas is primarily caused by declining

employment in agriculture and fisheries, and in the related processing industry. The decline

has generally affected the whole country but it was mostly seen in the marginal areas due to

the processing industry’s relative importance to these areas.

Page 16: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

16

Page 17: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

17

3. Innovation and knowledge economy

Denmark does not reach a high level in the ranking of innovation and knowledge economy

indicators, but stands in the average. However, as table 4 shows, its position derives from two

differentiated behaviours. While the R&D and EPO indicators point towards a not brilliant

performance, confirmed by a low level of high-tech manufacturing, the situation is different in

high-tech tertiary activities, whose presence is fairly good; beside that, the share of population

with tertiary education is more than satisfactory.

Denmark is characterized by a high degree of user-driven innovation, i.e. innovating activities

generated trough interaction with customers. The country does not have many large and

research-based companies, as its affluence more come from trade and small-scale industries

than from high-tech manufacturing companies.

Moreover, according to the recent European Innovation Scoreboard, Denmark is above the EU

average and is expected to “move ahead”.

Tab. 4 Indicators of innovation and knowledge economy

R&D

expenditures

on GDP

EPO application

per million

inhabitants

Percent. of

employment in

high-tech

manufact.

Percent. of

employment in

high-tech

services

Share of

population with

tertiary

education

Share of

turnover due to

products new to

the firms

Overall

ranking

DK 2.09 167 1.02 4.12 31.77 41.00 Intermediate

EU Elig

Regions 1.70 136 1.49 3.23 24.81 35.21

Sources: Eurostat and Community Innovation Survey – see vol.I

Page 18: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

18

Page 19: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

19

4. Accessibility

4.1. Access to transport infrastructure

Concerning the access to transport infrastructure, the situation of Denmark appears as

intermediate (see table 5). In fact, considering its morphology and territory characteristics (a

small region with an average density, with most of the population concentrated in a few urban

centres), the intermediate endowment of secondary roads allowing access to primary nodes

qualifies the situation of this country as non critical in the field of transport infrastructure. A

similar situation arises for multimodal potential accessibility

Tab. 5 Indicators of access to transport

Connectivity to transport terminals by car Multimodal potential accessibility

Intermediate Intermediate

Source: ESPON.

Consequently, a recommendation for policy measures in this area does not emerge for

Denmark.

Transport context

Apart from bus and coaches, which in the last six years1 show a declining trend (opposite to

the positive one registered on average in the EU 15), the Danish passenger transport demand

trends are all very close with the European average values. This is not the case of freight

transport, where the data show a significant positive trend for the railway mode, which on the

contrary is declining on average in Europe, and a much more moderate trend in road haulage.

Modal shares are more favourable to non road modes for passengers, while for freight the very

high percentage reached by the pipeline mode is partially distorting the comparison with the

EU values.

1 European Commission, Directorate General for Energy and Transport, Eurpean Union Energy and Transport Figures, 2003.

Page 20: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

20

Tab. 6 Trends in travel demand – pkm 1990 = 100

Years Cars Bus and coaches Railway Urban rail Air

1970 70 49 80

1980 80 78 78

1990 100 100 100 na 100

1995 114 114 99 126

2000 124 98 110 178

2001 123 97 114 185

2001 EU 15 120 112 115 115 182 Source: EC –DGTREN.

Tab. 7 Trends in travel demand – tkm 1990 = 100

Years Road haulage Railway Inland waterways

1970 51 98

1980 83 94

1990 100 100 100

1995 108 115

2000 130 122

2001 129 120

2001 EU 15 143 95 117 Source: EC –DGTREN.

Tab. 8 Modal shares by mode of land transport – Passengers - 2001

Cars Bus and coaches Railway Urban rail Powered two wheels

Denmark 79.3 12.2 7.5 - 1.0

EU 15 80.4 8.8 6.5 1.0 3.2 Source: EC –DGTREN.

Tab. 9 Modal shares by mode of land transport – Freight - 2001

Road Rail Inland waterways Pipelines

Denmark 73.2 8.6 0 18.3

EU 15 75.5 13.1 6.8 4.7 Source: EC –DGTREN.

Page 21: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

21

Trends projections2

Baseline trends in transport demand, emissions and vehicle stock are derived from the

Tremove study3 for the period 2005-2020 and are used as background scenario for the

regional analysis. Expected trends in modal shares are more road oriented: Denmark would

experiment a reduction of the role played by the rail mode both for freight and for passengers,

at least in the business as usual scenario. In the absence of specific transport policies aiming

to a reduction of the use of private cars and trucks, these two modes are expected to increase

their role in the future. Coherently, the forecast show a consistent increase in trucks fleet,

although this data is biased as for the Netherlands the international component of the road

haulage sector.

Fig. 1 Trends in model shares. Percentage change 2005-2020. Modal shares

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Car

Train

Coach

Urban PT

Plane

Slow

Trucks

Train

IWW

mod

es

%

2.020

2.005

Source: Tremove.

2 Trends have been derived from the Tremove database, data cannot be compared with the past trends presented in the previous section as the transport modes as well as the type of flows considered are different. Nevertheless they represent a likely trend in the absence of specific transport policies.

3 Tremove 2 Model has been developed by K.U Leuven and Transport &Mobility Leuven together with WSP, TRT, TRL, INFRAS and COWI, on behalf of DG ENV (2005).

Page 22: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

22

Fig. 2 Road vehicles stock

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Year

Car

Trucks

Source: Tremove.

Fig. 3 Trends in transport emissions

Emissions

25

50

75

100

125

150

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

CO2 N2O Nox

PM VOC

Source: Tremove.

Page 23: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

23

Regional analysis

Map 1 TEN-T priority projects

DK00DK00

Two rail and road TEN-T priority projects run through the Danish territory,

- the Oresund fixed link, completed in 2000, a railroad link across the Danish straits

from Copenhagen to Malmo with a four lane motorway running above a double track

railway. The new link consist of a four km tunnel under the sea, a four km long

artificial island and a 7,5 km bridge, the world longest cable-stayed bridge for road

and heavy rail. The project involved, as accompanying measures, the construction

of new road and rail access routes and a new railsation at the Copenhagen airport.

- The Ferner Baelt/Ferhmarnbelt railway, the construction of 19 km fixed rail and road

link, either a bridge or a tunnel or both, through the Fehmarn Straits between

Germany and Denmark.

Furthermore, also the Motorway of the Baltic Sea is expected to improve maritime connection

between Denmark and the Baltic and central European member States.

Page 24: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

24

4.2. Access to telecommunications and information technologies

Denmark is not dissimilar from other Nordic countries, showing a high communication and

computing culture. It is a heavy user of TLC and IT technology, where it invests more than the

European average (6.50% of GDP). It is known for having both a high computing and

communication culture and it shows a strong infrastructure in Information and Communication

Technology, in general, according to the traditional indicators: at the 2d level for fixed and

mobile telephony (with respectively, 60 to 69 fixed lines and 80 to 89 subscribers per 100

inhabitants), and at the 1st for PC availability and Internet access (with more than 50 PC and

50 Internet users per 100 inhabitants).4

Denmark is by all means amongst the good performers, within the Competitiveness Objective

regions, and show high access to ICT across the whole spectrum of indicators, both from the

supply and from the demand side, and with reference to mature as well as emerging and

innovative access typologies.

Table 10 depicts the situation in terms of access to TLC and ICT, where Denmark, as other

North European countries, scores high. Particularly, this performance is led by the investment

leadership of firms, which record both high levels of Internet access and web sites, and by a

sustained household adoption, with more than two thirds of units having a PC and almost 55%

access to the Internet.

Tab. 10 Access to TLC/ICT

Share of firms

with Internet

access

Share of firms

with a Web site

Share of

households with

PCs

Share of

households with

Internet access

Share of

households with

broadband

Internet access

Overall ranking

Denmark 97.0 75.0 67.7 54.3 16.6 High

EU eligible Regions 86.01 56.33 49.29 35.19 5.05 Sources: ESPON and INRA – see vol.I

4 See Annex II

Page 25: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

25

A note must be added on this respect, because Denmark stands out also as an interesting case

in which households compare relatively better than firms within the whole universe or eligibile

regions.

Tab. 11 Ranking of Denmark by access to TLC/ICT

Share of firms

with Internet

access

Share of firms with

a Web site

Share of

households with

PCs

Share of

households with

Internet access

Share of

households with

broadband Internet

access

Ranking 7 6 4 3 4 Sources: ESPON and INRA– see vol.I

Denmark is an outstanding example of well-balanced co-evolution; it is a country where both

economic performance and ICT uptake and access record a high level and are balanced. If an

effort may be exercised on ICT it might be directed towards accelerating the development of

supply-side ICT and increasing the access by firms.

Page 26: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

26

Page 27: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

27

5. Environment and risk prevention

5.1 General analysis

The overall situation of Denmark with respect to environment and risk prevention does not

appear critical in any respect, especially considering its high level of economic performance. In

details, Denmark has an intermediate degree of energy sustainability, transportation impact,

natural assets, a low degree of natural risk and an intermediate degree of technological risk.

As a result, Denmark’s situation qualifies as non critical in the areas of environment and risk

prevention.

Tab. 12 Indicators of energy sustainability

Electricity efficiency Electriciy self-sufficiency Renewable sources of

electric energy

Overall ranking

Denmark 3.834 0.346 0.093 Intermediate

EU Eligible Regions 3.646 0.254 0.202 Source: EUROSTAT – NEW CRONOS (Regio) – see vol.I

Tab. 13 Indicators of transportation impact

TR1

Vehicles density

TR2

Non-fuel transportation

TR3

Traffic intensity

Overall ranking

Denmark 0.054 0.009 -0.279 Intermediate

EU eligible Regions 0.218 0.031 0.400 Source: EUROSTAT – NEW CRONOS (Regio) – see vol.I 1) Every transport indicator - TR1, TR2 and TR3 – should be interpreted according its own dimension (and colour in column chart). Indicators cannot be compared with each other because of the difference in scales used. See Annex. The value of the traffic intensity indicator (TR3) could be some time negative because of the method of normalization used to calculate it. Such a normalization method allows us to summarize the two heterogeneous variables which make up the indicator (“total number of driven intra-regional trips/Total Area” and “Total number of kilometres made by journeys produced-generated by the region/Total Area). Values produced by normalization are relative and not absolute values.

Tab. 14 Indicators of natural/rural assets

Degree of protection Wilderness degree Anthropic degree Urban/Rural typology Overall ranking

Denmark 0.100 0.122 0.055 3.345 Intermediate

EU eligible Regions 0.088 0.310 0.103 2.819 Source: IRENA Database and ESPON-CORINE Landcover Database – see vol.I

Page 28: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

28

Tab. 15 Indicators of natural and technological risk

Natural risk Technological risk

Flood hazard potential Share of burnt areas Overall ranking Polluting sites density Overall ranking

Denmark 0.000 0.000 Low 0.367 Intermediate

EU eligible Regions 0.763 1.622 0.447 Source: ESPON Database and EPER-EEA – see vol.I

5.2 Specific Features

Electricity efficiency and renewable energy

Denmark demonstrates an electricity efficiency similar to the Union average (around 3.8

million euros GDP produced for every gigawatt hour consumed), while electricity self-

sufficiency is slightly higher than the Union eligible regions average, and the share of

renewable sources is quite far from the EU average level.

As the composite indicator of energy sustainability shows, the Danish overall ranking is

intermediate.

Transport and environment

The non fuel transportation share is quite low (0,009), compared to the EU average.

Furthermore, traffic intensity and vehicles density indicators show very low values.

In synthesis, the transportation impact on environment is intermediate.

Natural resources assets and management

Denmark natural resources endowment, in terms of sites under Habitat and Birds Directive is

very similar to the average observed at the Union level, although the wilderness degree is

lower. The anthropic degree and the urban density indicators assume intermediate values.

Risk Prevention

The probability that natural negative events occur is very modest (values equal to zero

registered by the flood hazard potential and the burnt areas indicators), while, as regards the

technological risk, the polluting sites density indicator (sites under IPPC Directive) assumes an

intermediate value, quite near the Union average one.

Page 29: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

29

6. Implementation of Structural Funds

In the current period it is benefiting a multi-regional objective 2 support, covering around 10%

of the total population.

The overall aim is the reconversion and development of areas facing structural problems.

Particular emphasis is given to RTDI and ICT, and secondarily to human resources.

During the previous programming period the region achieved an employment growth more

than elsewhere and a stronger growth in knowledge intensive and high-technologies industries.

According to data from the mid term evaluation approved projects for the current period are

forecasted to create 2,800 new jobs, 143% of the target.

Fig. 4 EU Contribution by typology area – Denmark, Objective 2 (2000-2006)

Productive environment Human resources Basic infrastructure Technical assistance

Source: our processing of DG Regio data (programme complements).

Objective 2 has a Structural Funds contribution of 197 million Euro, moreover Denmark

benefits from an Objective 3 programme (413 million Euro)5 and a fishery special support (230

5 Real prices.

Page 30: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

30

million Euro). Together with Equal, Urban, Leader and Interreg support, Denmark receives a

total contribution from Structural Funds equal to 931,74 million Euro6.

Community added value of Structural Funds in Denmark are mostly leveraging of other

investments and attracting inward investments.

6 It includes also an additional amount of almost 33,24 millions EURO (total for Objectives 2 and 3 and Fisheries programme) in the framework of the performance reserve.

Page 31: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

31

7. Policy priorities assessment

7.1. Findings from the statistical analysis

Denmark is a high income country which has successfully implemented an employment-rich

model of development without a strong high-tech potential in secondary activities. However,

the level of education of the population appears satisfactory, and the diffusion of TLC and ICT

technologies is high, both among firms and households. Finally, the degree of transport

connectivity is intermediate and the environment and risk prevention side does not present

clear criticalities. As a result, Denmark can benefit from a policy directed at maintaining the

current path of development, preventing the emergence of potential areas of critically not yet

clearly manifested, such as the technological base and the secondary networks of transport.

Tab. 16 Economic performance versus innovation & knowledge economy, access to ICT and

access to transport.

Economic performance Innovation and knowledge economy Access to TLC and ICT Access to transport

Ranking Joint analysis Ranking Joint analysis Joint analysis

High Intermediate Uncorrelated High High performers Non problematic region Source: our processing.

Tab. 17 Economic performance versus environment and risk prevention

Economic

performance

Energy sustainability Transport impact Natural/rural assets

Natural risk Technological risk

High Intermediate Intermediate Intermediate Low Intermediate Source: our processing.

If we focus on entrepreneurship, Innovation and ICT, Denmark has an excellent economic

performance, especially in the Innovation sector. Nevertheless, in the future, the globalization

will challenge the Danish competitiveness. It is a matter of fact that Danish enterprises are

very good in adapting to the market, building cooperation network and introducing innovation

in the productive process as well in the product itself. The threat comes by the lack of a strong

research-base. Since the Danish enterprises are mostly SMEs, they could not afford to invest in

pre-market research and the innovation is mostly customer-driven.

Page 32: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

32

7.2 Findings from the field analysis

National analysis

Denmark is one single NUTS 2 region, and there will most likely be only one national Objective

Competitiveness programme and one Objective Territorial Cooperation programme in the next

programming period.

Denmark’s strong entrepreneurial traditions explain a considerable part of the country’s

favourable economic situation. The challenge for the future is to maintain this position as a

commercial centre. Especially Copenhagen’s location provides an advantage for the location of

Nordic and North European headquarters. A continued focus on entrepreneurship and

innovation as a source of international competitiveness is therefore a logical way forward.

Denmark has identified four “growth drivers”: human resources, innovation, new technology

and entrepreneurship. Policies for economic growth will be focused on these four drivers. The

main challenges for policies are:

• Human resources. Denmark has a good level of basic education and a flexible

workforce, but relatively few have a higher education. Research based education is not

used much utilised by the enterprises.

• Innovation. Danish enterprises are strong in market-based innovation and they do learn

from each other. They do however tend to compete on price rather than on new

products, and the cooperation with research and higher education is not well developed.

• New technology. Denmark has a good ITC infrastructure and is in the forefront

regarding ITC use in businesses. A more advanced use is less well developed, however,

as few companies are utilising ITC for customer support, e-learning etc.

• Entrepreneurship. There are entrepreneurial traditions and business services are

available, but only few new businesses becomes growing companies. Only a limited

number of start-ups are based on spin-offs from R&D.

Given this focus on the four growth drivers and the lessons learned from the current

programming period, our assessment on the view in Denmark concerning the 10 main

priorities for future Structural Fund support are as follows:

• Promoting innovation and R&D will be one of the Danish priorities for the next

programming period. The focus on SMEs fits the Danish situation well.

Page 33: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

33

• Promoting entrepreneurship is another of Denmark’s main priorities. Again, Denmark

will agree with the SME focus.

• Secondary networks is of relevance in some parts of the country only, notably on the

most remote islands where links to mainland Denmark are always discussed.

• Information society will also be a prioritised area of intervention, with a focus on the

use of the opportunities provided by ITC infrastructure (rather than on the

infrastructure itself).

• Investment in infrastructure linked to Natura 2000 are of less importance for the

discussion on regional policy and the use of Structural Funds.

• Regarding promoting the integration of cleaner technologies and pollution prevention

measures in SMEs there is an interest in the commercial potential of environmental

technologies – but more as a business opportunity than of concern for the environment

itself. Measures for such purposes would probably be placed under the “innovation and

business support” label rather than under “environment”.

• Rehabilitation of derelict industrial sites is not an important topic in Denmark.

• Supporting measures to prevent natural and technological risks are not an important

topic in Denmark when regional development and competitiveness are discussed, but it

might be of interest from a business opportunity perspective. Measures for such

purposes would probably be placed under the “innovation and business support” label

rather than under “environment”.

• Promotion of urban sustainable public transport is of less importance for the discussion

on regional policy and the use of Structural Funds.

There is an interest for development and use of renewable energy in the commercial potential

of environmental technologies – but more as a business opportunity than of concern for the

environment itself (e.g. Denmark’s leading position in windmill technology). Measures for such

purposes would probably be placed under the “innovation and business support” label rather

than under “environment”.

Since the Objective Competitiveness programme will be of limited size in Denmark, and since

the development situation is relatively balanced across the country, funding will have to be

concentrated to issues where they make a difference.

Page 34: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

34

There are of course a large number of good purposes where funding could be spent, but the

use of ERDF funding (as extra money on top of national efforts) will have to be discussed on

the basis of resources available in national budgets. That is why e.g. integration issues and

labour market issues are regarded as less important for Objective Competitiveness and

Employment.

The proposal for Denmark is to focus strongly on innovation and entrepreneurship.

Concentrating in a single thematic is a consequences of the financial dimension of EU

contribution since the Objective 2 program will be of limited size in Denmark comparing with

the available national resources. It is also to say that, based on the analysis above,

Environment and Accessibility do not represent an imminent and clear threat for a balanced

development. Denmark does not have much contaminated sites, and only limited natural and

technological risks. Further more, the country has for many years been one of the leading in

production of wind power. Urban transport is not seen as a major constraint to economic

development, neither is secondary links to TEN transport.

The decision to focus on innovation is consistent with the National Development Strategy

which is based on the so called “four drivers”: Innovation, ICT, Human resources and

Entrepreneurship”. The National Strategy aims to maintain the comparative advantage in the

innovative business sector with two priorities: Use of Knowledge and Entrepreneurship. The

four drivers are the main pillars to achieve these priorities. Environment and Accessibility will

be taken account as cross-cutting themes together with rural and urban development. It

means that the Program could implement a single intervention which might be environmental,

but this should have a very innovative nature (or e.g. linked with ICT or Entrepreneurship). In

other words, funding could nevertheless be used for purposes within the environmental,

energy or transport sectors, but then based on goals for the enhancement of competitiveness

and employment rather than focusing on these sectors themselves. The Danish development

strategy in represented in the scheme below:

Page 35: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

35

Given the structure of the business sector, the innovation strategy will have its core in the

support to the SMEs. One specific action will be strengthening the links between SMEs and

research and higher education. As a consequence, the future management of the SF will be

strictly coordinated and the ESF and EDRF will be included in the same strategically framework

(see the above scheme). Another specific action will concern the promotion the use of ICT by

SMEs.

Regional level

The whole Denmark is eligible as a NUTS2 region under the new programming period 2007-

2013. Although Denmark presents a very high degree of regional balance, there are still some

marginal areas relatively underdeveloped with respect to the rest of the country. Marginal

areas are mainly located along coastal areas in the following Danish counties (amter):

• Nordjylland (Skagen, Hjørring, Frederikshavn, Læsø)

• Southern part of Funen island (Svendborg, Ærø, Langeland)

• Storstrøms (Lolland-Falster

• Bornholm island (regional municipality)

• Municipalities in other counties (Tønder, Grenå, Mors and Samsø)

The marginal areas comprise 15 small and medium-sized regions (minor towns and their

hinterlands), comprising approximately 9 per cent of the country's total population. All of the

Rural/ Urban Development Accessibility Environment ……………

Hum

an R

eso

urc

es

Innova

tion

Entr

epre

neurs

hip

ICT

Use of Knowlegde Entrepreneurship

Maintain Innovative Comparative Advantages

Page 36: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

36

small commuter regions rank in this group. These regions can also be distinguished from the

other regions of Denmark by a variety of socio-economic factors. Employment in the service

sector, income per capita, employment growth and education levels are all below the national

average. Decrease in population is one of the most serious issues and the main strategy

adopted by the government is to raise travel allowances for commuters from these areas in

order to stimulate settlements there.

These areas share the issue of declining fishing opportunities and the urge to restructure this

industry or to convert industrial competencies to new productions and new businesses.

The relatively slow development in marginal areas concerns also the agricultural sector, and in

the related processing industry. This decline has particularly affected marginal areas because

these industries are of relatively greater importance to them than to the rest of Danish

regions. However, challenges faced by marginal areas vary significantly.

Whereas in terms of GDP per capita there are not significant disparities with the rest of

Denmark, in terms of earned income per capita the difference is higher so that the

performance of these areas is usually 10-20% below national average. Growth of earned in

income per capita has been high enough to reduce the gap with the rest of Denmark in four of

these areas (Morsø, Samsø, Ærøskøbing and Tønder). Other areas are actually increasing their

gap (Nykøbing-Falster, Frederikshavn, Nakskov, Grenå, Marstal, Rønne and Skagen). Skagen

represents a special case. The region was among the most prosperous regions ten years ago,

whereas today it lies at the bottom.

Employment in the primary sector is above national average. The average unemployment rate

in Objective 2 regions was 8.1% in 1999 compared to the national average of 5.8%. Several

marginal areas witnessed a decline in agriculture and fisheries and in the food, beverages and

tobacco industries that alone reduced employment rates by more than 0.5 per cent annually in

the period 1994-20027. Employment rates dropped especially in Bornholm, southern Funen,

Lolland-Falster, Frederikshavn, Lemvig and Haderslev.

The business sector of the marginal areas is usually characterised by low-tech companies. The

demand for technology services, research partnerships, etc. is limited. Education levels are

also systematically lower in marginal areas. This represents an important reason for the

relatively low productivity and income levels of these areas. Notably higher educational

qualifications are underrepresented. The eligible regions face special environmental

7 The Danish Regional Growth Strategy, The Danish Government, May 2003

Page 37: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

37

restrictions. These include vulnerable environments such as coastal zones or small islands

which have limited land use and/or fresh water resources.

Implementation issues

As far as management and implementation is concerned there is a wish to increase flexibility

by reducing the number of budget lines for future Structural Fund programmes, as this will

make budget reallocations less necessary.

Denmark has in the past used integrated projects (called framework projects) as a way to

reduce the administrative burden for participants, i.e. applying a parallel to the lead partner

principle also in domestic programmes. This will probably be applied also in the next

programming period.

From 2007 Denmark will have a new structure for regions and municipalities. The number of

regions will be reduced to five (from 14 at present) and the number of municipalities to 98

(from 271). This will have an impact on Structural Fund management. Most likely will the

present ERDF arrangement be continued, i.e. that the regions propose projects for funding,

while the National Agency for Enterprise and Construction does a legal control and takes care

of payments. The regions can themselves organise their partnerships (“growth foras”) – and it

might be more than one for each region. The necessary legislation passed the parliament in

June 2005, but the details are still to be developed.

Following the national reform and establishment of five regions (instead of the previous 14),

regional development will be a responsibility of the new regional councils together with the

regional partnership. A probable solution is therefore to implement the Objective

Competitiveness programme trough the five regions. Each of them will have a “growth forum”

that will serve as the regional partnership.

ERDF and ESF funding will be combined as far as possible. Denmark has already moved the

ERDF implementation and the ESF implementation responsibilities to the same agency at

national level: the Agency for Enterprise and Construction (under the Ministry of Economic and

Business Affairs). This was done to enhance the coordination and cooperation between the

two.

This arrangement will probably be maintained also for the future. The idea is to let the funds

work in concert and to use the four drivers of growth (human resources, innovation, new

technology, entrepreneurship) as pillars for the programme, with equal opportunities,

Page 38: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

38

environment, urban and rural as cross-cutting integrated issues. The programme will then be

possible to implement all over the country, but of course with a different focus from region to

region and from city to city depending on the local challenges and opportunities.

Page 39: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

39

ANNEX I: Methodology for transport indicators

The multi-index approach

Finding a unique measure of the transport conditions in a given region, even if the analysis is

focused on one main aspect like accessibility, is a very difficult task. Both demand and supply

conditions play a role and both can be seen from different perspectives so that each indicator

is hardly more than just a limited point of view. For that reason, we decided to use different

indicators, namely three indexes:

- Infrastructure Usage Index - IUIj

- Accessibility Index - AIj

- Connectivity Index - CIj

The Infrastructure Usage Index measures the level of road and rail demand entering the region

and leaving the region (i.e. generated and attracted traffic excluding trips starting and ending

in the same region) in comparison to the supply of major roads and rails. The index is

computed separately for road and rail and for passenger and freight8 by taking the ratio

between the demand and the length of the main infrastructures (e.g. motorways, dual

carriageway roads, etc.). Thus four separate ratios are computed. Then the logarithm of each

ratio is computed and a weighted average of the four logs is computed where the weights are

the modal shares of road and rail on passenger and freight demand. The weighted average is

the Infrastructure Usage Index. The index is greater for zone where the ratio between demand

and supply is higher, that is where infrastructure are more exploited.

The Accessibility Index is a synthetic measure of multimodal potential accessibility. It is based

on the assumption that the attraction of a destination increases with its size (in terms of

population or GDP) and declines with distance, travel time and costs. The accessibility model

used in the ESPON study assumes the centroids of NUTS3 regions as origins and destinations

and, then, calculates the minimum travel time (with respect to different modes of transport,

that is by road, rail and air) between the various centroids. This indicator of potential

accessibility contains parameters that need to be calibrated so that it cannot be expressed in

8 Generated and attracted traffic is estimated from the results of the European transport model SCENES.

Page 40: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

40

familiar units. The higher is the index the higher is the accessibility. As a consequence, NUTS3

data are standardised to the average accessibility of the EU25 countries. NUTS2 indicators

have been computed by the Statistical Team by averaging NUTS3 data provided by the ESPON

database.

The Connectivity Index is expressed as the reciprocal of the hours needed to reach by car

different transport nodes (rail stations, motorways accesses, seaports and airports) starting

from the centroid of each NUTS3 region. Thus, regional centroids are taken as origins while

transport terminal as destinations. The higher is the index the higher is the connectivity. Again

such an indicator is available for NUTS3 European regions from ESPON and it has been

averaged by the Statistical Team to obtain NUTS2 indexes.

All three indexes provide a piece of the story and there is not a hierarchy among them. As the

analysis in section 2 will show, the Infrastructure Usage Index is somewhat correlated to the

Accessibility Index, in the sense that zones where the former is greater than the median

(showing a lower performance in terms of availability of infrastructures with respect to the

generated and attracted demand), also the latter is greater than the median (showing a better

performance in terms of accessibility). In other words, not surprisingly, the most accessible

zones tend to be attract and generate more demand, in relative terms, than less accessible

zones.

Furthermore, more than the numeric values, the most useful information is how the regions

within a country are ranked according to each index and especially which performs better and

which worse. When a region underperforms according to all the indexes, this is a hint that

some problems exist concerning accessibility, and vice-versa if a region overperforms.

Therefore, the analysis consisted in the following steps:

a) For each index the median across the NUTS2 regions of a given country has been

computed: MED(IUI), MED(AI), MED(CI). The median has been preferred to the mean

because in most of the countries the distribution of the indexes is strongly asymmetrical

and so the mean can be influenced by one or two very high (or low) values.

b) Each region in the country has been classified as underperforming or overperforming in

terms of each of the three indexes: underperforming have been considered those regions

where the index is lower than the median (for the accessibility and the connectivity index)

or, vice-versa, higher than the median (for the infrastructure usage index). This

classification allows to compare regions in terms of a specific index.

Page 41: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

41

c) For each region has been computed the ratio between the value of the index for that zone

and the median value computed above across all the zones of the country: AIj/MED(AI) and

CIj/MED(CI) for the accessibility and the connectivity index or, vice-versa, the ratio

between the median value and the value of the index for the zone: MED(IUI)/IUIj for the

infrastructure usage index. These ratios are greater than one for zone overperforming and

lower than one for the regions underperforming.

d) For each region the three ratios computed above have been summed. The higher is the

sum and the better the region performs. However, as the aim of the analysis is not

computing a super-index, the value of the sum is not really relevant in itself. Instead, the

average and the standard deviation of the sums have been computed. The zones where the

sum of the ratios is lower than the average minus one standard deviation (SUMj < Average

– DevSt) can be considered as highly problematic with respect to the average conditions in

the country. The zones where the sum of the ratios is lower than the average minus 75%

of standard deviation (SUMj < Average – 0.75*DevSt) can be considered as problematic

even if at a less extent. On the opposite side, zone where the sum is higher than the

average plus one standard deviation (SUMj > Average * DevSt) can be considered as those

with less problems concerning their accessibility.

This analysis mixes quantitative and qualitative indications to provide a comparative picture of

region’s performances. It should be stressed that the results make sense in relative terms

(e.g. comparing the regions each other) rather then in absolute terms. In other words, a

region can perform worse than other regions of the country but this does not mean that the

accessibility is absolutely poor; if the overall situation is good in the whole country, even

regions classified as underperforming can enjoy a good level of accessibility.

Multi index analysis

The multi index analysis is based on three different indicators:

- Infrastructure Usage Index - IUIj

- Accessibility Index - AIj

- Connectivity Index - CIj

Denmark consists of one region only at the NUTS2 level, therefore the multimodal index

analysis cannot be performed. However, from the results of the SCENES model, the

Infrastructure Usage Index could be computed for two NUTS3 regions, as reported in the

following table. Infrastructure Usage, Accessibility and Connectivity indexes are compared with

Page 42: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

42

the mean values of the two neighbouring countries, Netherlands and Sweden. Although the

three countries have different characteristics, and therefore their comparison should be

considered only as an indication, it is interesting to notice that the three indexes for Denmark

are all included between the high Nederland values and the low values of Sweden ones, and in

general more near to the Swedish values. It should be noted that, also from the point of view

of population density (122 inhabitants per km2), Denmark is very close to Sweden. From the

above information, the Denmark region appears to be in line with the average characteristics

of the area.

Indexes for Denmark compared with Sweden and Nederland

SCENES Region IUI AI CI

Hovedstadt & Ost f Storebaelt 32.6 91.8. 2.09°

Vest for Storebælt 28.0 91.8. 2.09°

Sweden Median/ Mean1 28.2 74.3 1.7

Nederland Median/Mean 43.8 123.7 4.3 1 The mean of the summary statistics exclude the Övre Norrland region.

Page 43: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

43

ANNEX II: Telecom indicators levels

Sources and definitions

The source is: ESPON project 1.2.2 Telecommunication Services and Networks: Territorial

Trends and Basic Supply of Infrastructure for Territorial Cohesion.

Main telephone lines per 100 inhabitants:

Level 1 = >70

Level 2 = 60-69

Level 3 = 50-59

Level 4 = 40-49

Level 5 = 30-39

Level 6 = <30

Cellular mobile subscribers per 100 inhabitants:

Level 1 = >90

Level 2 = 80-89

Level 3 = 70-79

Level 4 = 60-69

Level 5 = 50-59

Level 6 = <50

Estimated PC per 100 inhabitants:

Level 1 = >50

Page 44: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

44

Level 2 = 40-49

Level 3 = 30-39

Level 4 = 20-29

Level 5 = 10-19

Level 6 = <10

Internet (users per 10000 inhabitants):

Level 1 = >5000

Level 2 = 4000-4999

Level 3 = 3000-3999

Level 4 = 2000-2999

Level 5 = 1000-1999

Level 6 = <1000

Page 45: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

45

ANNEX III: Methodology for environment indicators

Sources and definitions

Indicators at regional level Nuts II

1 - Energy

Indicator Definition Year Source

EN1 GDP / total electricity consumption 2000 EUROSTAT – New

Cronos (Regio)

EN2 Total electricity production capacity/ total

electricity consumption

2000 EUROSTAT – New

Cronos (Regio)

EN3 (Total electricity production capacity –

Thermal power – Nuclear power)/ Total

electricity production capacity

2000 EUROSTAT – New

Cronos (Regio)

Energy

sustainability

Energy sustainability indicator + Energy

efficiency indicator

2000 EUROSTAT – New

Cronos (Regio)

2 - Transport

Indicator Definition Year Source

TR1 Vehicles Density: Total Number of

Vehicles/Total Area

2000 EUROSTAT – New

Cronos (Regio)

TR2 Non-fuel Transportation: Electricity 2000 EUROSTAT – New

Page 46: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

46

Consumption in the Transport Sector/ Total

Electricity Consumption

Cronos (Regio)

TR3 Traffic Intensity: (Total number of driven

intra-regional trips/Total Area) + (Total

number of kilometres made by journeys

produced-generated by the region/Total

Area)

2001 EUROSTAT – New

Cronos (Regio)

Transportation

impact

Traffic intensity sustainability indicator –

Clean transportation indicator

EUROSTAT – New

Cronos (Regio)

3 - Natural resources

Indicator Definition Year Source

NA1 Degree of protection: Area under Nature

Protection/Total Area

2003 Irena Database

NA2 Wilderness degree: (Forest Area + Semi-

Natural Area)/ Total Area

1996 Espon Corine Landcover

Database

NA3 Anthropic degree: Artificial surface/ Total

Area

1996 Espon Corine Landcover

Database

NA4 Urban-Rural typology 1996 Espon Corine Landcover

Database

Natural/rural

assets indicator

(factor score – lowest score)/ (highest

score – lowest score)*100

Page 47: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

47

4 - Natural hazard and Technological risk

Indicator Definition Year Source

RK1 Natural hazards with anthropic

implications-1: Regional flood hazard

potential

1996-

2002

Espon Database

RK2 Natural hazards with anthropic

implications-2: (Size of burnt areas/Total

area)*1000

2000 Espon Database

RK3 Polluting Sites Density: Number of

Installations under IPPC obligation (IPPC

Sites)/Total Area (hundreds Km2)

2000-

2001

Eper-EEA

Natural risk

indicator

[(RK1 – lowest value)/(highest value –

lowest value)*100] + [(RK2 – lowest

value)/(highest value – lowest value)*100]

Page 48: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

48

Page 49: Policy guidelines for regions falling under the new ...ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/guide/02... · intermediate. Trends of passenger transport in the

CsilMilano DENMARK

49

ANNEX IV: Bibliography and sources of information

Economic Survey of Denmark, 2005. OECD.

The Danish Regional Growth Strategy, The Danish Government, May 2003. Danish Ministry of

Economic and Business Affairs.

OECD: “Environmental performance (I cycle). Conclusions and recommendations, 32 countries

(1993-2000)”, OECD working party on environmental performance. November 2000.

International Energy Agency (IEA), “Energy balances”, IEA Energy Statistics, 2000.