POLI 235A WINTER 2015 PETER H. SMITH SARA BIVIN LATIN AMERICA
IN THE CONTEMPORARY WORLD
Slide 2
WHO IS THIS GUY? Captivated by Latin America (and relationship
with United States) as accidental tourist in Mexico Historian by
training, political scientist by self- education and ad hoc
exposure Faculty positions at Dartmouth College, University of
Wisconsin, MIT; at UCSD for > 25 years Extensive research on
Argentina and Mexico Research programs on Latin American relations
with Europe and East Asia Most relevant publication--Talons of the
Eagle: Latin America, the United States, and the World, 4 th
edition (Oxford University Press, 2013)
Slide 3
CONTACT INFO [email protected] Social Science Building 364
Wednesday 3:30-5:30 Website
http://pages.ucsd.edu/~phsmithhttp://pages.ucsd.edu/~phsmith Click
on Teaching and POLI 235A/IRGN 490 Sara Bivin [email protected]
Slide 4
Slide 5
Course Design INTRODUCTION Jan 06: Queries and Concepts Jan 13:
Sizing Up the Neighborhood (David Mares) LATIN AMERICAN FOREIGN
POLICIES Jan 20: BrazilAn Emerging Giant? (Riordan Roett) Jan 27:
VenezuelaAfter Chvez, What? (Javier Corrales) Feb 03:
MexicoJockeying for Position (Rafael Fernndez de Castro, Arturo
Sarukhan) Feb 10: CubaWhat Now? (Michael Erisman)
Slide 6
Course Design (cont) MAJOR POWER CENTERS Feb 17: The European
Union Feb 24: What Does China Really Want? (Weiyi Shi) March 03:
International OrganizationsUN, WTO, OAS Mar 10: Rogues and Other
Contenders/Course Review and Closing Statement
Slide 7
ASSIGNMENTS AND DATES February 17: Policy Memo #1 March 10:
Policy Memo #2 Debates: TBA
Slide 8
THOUGHTS ON POLICY MEMOS Imagine yourself as consultant to a
Latin American government (or corporation or other suitable entity)
Identify a policy challenge or problem Evaluate policy alternatives
Present a clear recommendation Explain reasons for policy choice,
including anticipated consequence (or outcome) 3 single-spaced
pages
Slide 9
PLANS FOR DEBATES Form reading groups and debate teams for
Weeks 3- 10 (depending) PHS and SB will suggest a resolution (teams
can suggest alternatives) Divide evenly into for and against groups
Use assigned reading as basis for your argumentation With speeches
and rebuttals, elapsed time a little less than one hour Vote of
audience to determine winner?
Slide 10
GRADING Performance in debate=.20 Literature analysis=.20
Policy memo #1=.30 Policy memo #2=.30
Slide 11
WHO ARE YOU? Please send e-mails to PHS and SB with following
information: Name + nickname (if any) Preferred e-mail Department @
UCSD Background (upbringing, education, etc.) Relevant experience
(academic, professional, travels in Latin America, etc.) 1 st and 2
nd preferences for debate groups (see weeks 3-10 below)
Slide 12
QUERIES AND CONCEPTS
Slide 13
Key Questions How have Latin American countries responded to
shifting balances of global power? With what results? What shifts
have had the most significant implications for nations of the
region? What has been the range of policy choice? What accounts for
convergence and/or divergence? How do major power centers view
Latin America? Do they see it as important? Why and to what extent?
What is the current state of U.S. relations with Latin America? Is
American power on the decline?
Slide 14
THE CONCEPT OF POWER Robert A. Dahl (1957): A has power over B
to the extent that he can get B to do something that B would not
otherwise do. Moiss Nam (2013): Power is the ability to direct or
prevent the current or future actions of other groups and
individuals. It is relational; situational; changeable; expressed
in various ways; dependent on incentives and preferences
Slide 15
Policy Analysis 101 Formation (Gardini and Lambert): 1. Ends
and purposes 2. Means and capabilities 3. Agency 4. Process 5.
Structure and context Results: Output vs. outcome
Cause-and-effect
Slide 16
Gardini and Lambert Tension between pragmatism and ideology but
coexistence makes them complementary, not mutually exclusive A
pragmatic foreign policy is a foreign policy based on the principle
that the usefulness, workability, and practicality of ideas,
policies, and proposals are the criteria of their merit. It
stresses the priority of action over doctrine, of experience over
fixed principles. An ideological foreign policy emphasizes
principles and doctrinaire solutions over adaptability and the
practical consequences of assertions and actions.
Slide 17
Additional Perspectives Grand strategies vs. ad hoc reactions
Regimes and rules of the game Geopolitics vs. geoeconomics Hard and
soft power
Slide 18
Structures of Global Power Unipolarity (Krauthammer +
Brzezinski) Ending of Cold War Economic and military primacy U.S.
as balancer of last resort still peerless Multipolarity (Kissinger)
the new order will be more like the European state system of the
eighteenth and nineteenth centuries than the rigid patterns of the
Cold War. It will consist of at least six major powersthe United
States, Europe, China, Japan, Russia, and probably Indiaas well as
a multiplicity of medium-sized and smaller countries. Goal:
acceptable balance of power among competing states; stability and
moderation
Slide 19
Structures (cont.) The World as Flat (Friedman) It is now
possible for more people than ever to collaborate and compete in
real time with more other people on more different kinds of work
from more different corners of the planet and on a more equal
footing than at any previous time in the history of the world The
World as Pyramid (Gelb) U.S. alone at the pinnacle, with formidable
and unique global powers of leadership, but not the power to
dominate The Eight: BRIC + UK, Japan, France, Germany Enablers,
especially 0il and gas-producing states Regional Players (e.g.
Mexico and South Africa) Responsibles (N ~ 50, such as Chile)
Bottom Dwellers or Problem States (N~75)
Slide 20
Oops! Caveats! Power in Decay (Moiss Nam) power no longer buys
as much as it did in the past. In the twenty-first century, power
is easier to get, harder to useand to lose. The decoupling of power
from size is changing the world. Sources of Change More:
overwhelming the means of control Mobility: the end of captive
audiences Mentality: taking nothing for granted anymore The Global
Arena Hegemony and world order Ad hoc alliances, decline of
economic diplomacy, soft power Weapons of the small and weak,
constraints on major powers
Slide 21
STRATEGIES FOR SMALLER NATIONS Coalitions of the willing =
minilateralism Economic diplomacy + soft power (e.g. Qatar) Vetoes
(as in EU, e.g. Poland on climate change) Gongos
(government-organized nongovernmental organizations, important with
decline of traditional diplomacy)
Slide 22
Questions Do these (or other) scenarios coexist in differing
combinations? In what way? What would be the implications of each
scenario for which countries of Latin America? Do they call for
long-term strategies? Of what kind?