Report No. 7999-POL

PolandEconomic Management for a New Era

(In Two Volumes) Volume II: Technical Annex and Statistical AppendixJanuary 19, 1990

Country Operations Department IVEurope, Middle East and North Africa Region

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Document of the World Bank

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipientsonly in the perfornance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwisebe disclosed without World Bank authorization.

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CUkRENCY gQUIVALENTS

Currency Unit - Zloty (ZI)

Calendar 1986 (average) US$ ZI 175ZI 1 billion - US$5.71 millionTransferable Ruble (TR) 1 - Zl 92

Calendar 1987 (average) US$ - Zi 265Zl 1 billion - US$3.77 millionTR 1 - Zl 116

Calendar 1988 (average) US$ 1Z 431Zl 1 billion - US$2.32 millionTR 1 Zl 197

December 31. 1988 US$ Zl 563Zl 1 billion - US$1.99 millionTR 1 Zl 230

December 31. 1989 US$ Zl 6500Zl 1 billion - US$0.16 millionTR 1 - ZL 1200

Polish Fiscal Year

January 1 to December 31

Weights and Reasures - Metric Systeg

FOR OMCIAL USE ONLY

ABSTRACT

This report reviews events in Poland during 1987-1989 and the problems whichneed to be addressed for stabilization and adjustment. The report does notdiscuss the specifics of the new program which Government is implementing fromJanuary 1990. Chapter I reviews the political and economic events of therecent past. Chapter II analyzes the causes of past disequilibria anddistortions, reviews issues faced by a number of sectors, and suggestsmeasures to tackle them. Chapter £II discusses needs for programs tostabilize and adjust the economy, including reforms at the institutional andenterprise level, to foster the supply response, and proposed measures tobuild a social safety net. Chapter IV discusses alternative programs ofstabilization and adjustment, analyzes their impact in terms of growth andcosts, and the role of debt management and external support.

This is the report of a mission led by Michael Lav (EM4) and includingDavid Craig (EM4), Manuel Hinds (EMTTF), Branko Milanovic (EM4), Mario Reyes-Vidal (EM4IE), Fernando Saldanha (EMTTF), David Tarr (EMTTF), Tom Wolf (IMF),and Messrs. Hans Horch and Bohdan Wyzniekiewicz (consultants). Messrs. CostasMichalopoulos (EMNVP) and Philippe Nouvel (EM4) joined the mission fordiscussions. Mr. Carlos Hinayon (EM4) and Ms. Azita Dastgheib (EMTTF)assisted in doing the calculations used in the report. The mission visitedPoland from February 26 to March 18, 1989. Because of substantial changeswhich occurred in Poland, updating missions visited the country in June andOctober, 1989.

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performanceof their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

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Table of Contents

Page No.

TECHNICAL ANNEX:

The Welfare Effects of Foreign Exchange Restraints, Shortagesand Subsidies in the Polish Auto, Color TV and Butter Markets 1

Appendix A: Demand Functions in Disequilibrium Conditions:Imported Autos and Color TVs in Poland 17

Appendix B: Data Sources in Autos, Color TVs and Butter 24

List of Tables and Figures:

Tables: 1 Impact of Eliminating Macroeconomic Foreign ExchangeRestrictions on the Auto Market in Poland 27

2 Impact of Elimination of Domestic Price Controlsin Polish Autos 29

3 Impact of Eliminating Macroeconomic Foreign ExchangeRestrictions on the Color TV Market in Poland 31

4 Impact of Elimination of Domestic Price Controlsin Polish TVs 33

5 Impact of Reducing Centrally Allocated ForeignExchange on the Market for Butter in Poland 35

6 Impact of Eliminating Price Controls, ProducerSubsidies and Reducing Centrally Allocated ForeignExchange in the Polish Butter Market 37

7 Impact of Eliminating Producer Subsidies in thePolish Butter Market 39

8 Impact of Eliminating Price Controls, ProducerSubsidies and Centrally Allocated Foreign Exchangein the Polish Butter Market 41

Figures: 1 Impact of Eliminating Foreign Exchange Restraintson Polish Autos 28

2 Impact of Eliminating Price Controls on Polish Autos 303 Impact of Eliminating Foreign Exchange Restraints

on Polish Color TVs 324 Impact of Eliminating Price Controls on Polish

Color TVs 345 Impact of Reducing Foreign Exchange Subsidies on

the Polish Butter Market 366 Impact of Eliminating Price Controls, Producer

Subsidies and Reducing Import Subsidies on thePolish Butter Market 38

7 Impact of Eliminating Domestic Producer Subsidieson the Polish Butter Market 40

8 Impact of Eliminating Price Controls, ProducerSubsidies and Import Subsidies in the PolishButter Market 42

References 43

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STATISTICAL APPENDIX 44

1.1 Population and Demographic Indicators 4:5

1.2 Employment by Sector 46

2.1 Macroeconomic Balances 47

2.2 Incentive Indicators 48

3.1 GDP by Source in Current Values 49

3.2 GDP by Expenditures in Current Values 50

3.3 GDP by Expenditure in Constant Values 51

4.1 Balance of Payments - Total 52

4.2 Balance of Payments Convertible Currency 53

4.3 Balance of Payments Non-Convertible Currency 54

4.4 Exports by SITC One-Digit Category 55

4.5 Imports (CIF) by SITC One-Digit Category 56

4.6 Classification of Imports by End-Use, 1970-1987 57

5.1 External Debt 58

5.2 Maturity Schedule of Medium and Long Term External Debt--

In Convertible Currencies at end-June 1989 59

6.1 State Budget Revenues 60

6.2 State Budget Expenditures 61

6.3 Intvestment Outlays (Billions of Current Zlotys) 62

6.4 Investment Outlays (Billions of Zlotys) 63

7.1 Monetary Survey 64

7.2 Interest Rates on Bank Deposits 65

7.3 Interest Rates on Bank Credits 66

8.. Agricultural Production in Current Values 67

8.2 Production and Yield of Selected Crops 68

8.3 Livestock 69

9.1 Gross Industrial Production 70

9.2 Gross Value of Productive Fixed Assets in Socialized Industry 71

10.1 Sources and Uses of Energy Supply, 1970-1990 72

11.1 Producer Prices 73

11.2 Retail Price Index of Goods and Services 74

THE WELFARE EFFECTS OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESTRAINTS,SHORTAGES AND SUBSIDIES IN THE POLISH AUTO,

COLOR TV AND BUTTER MARKETS

1. This paper examit.es the impact of Poland's aggregate fore.'gnexchange distortions on particular markets: in particular on autos, color T\'Vand butter. In analyzing these particular markets, however, otherdistortions, notably shortages induced by price controls and subsidies in thecase of butter play a crucial and interrelated role with the foreign exclhangedistortions. Thus, the consequences of eliminating foreign exchangedistortions in the presence of price controls (and subsidies in the case ofbutter), as well as the consequences of removing the price controls andsubsidies in these markets is assessed.

2. The market for butter is quite different in a structural sensefrom the markets for autos and color TVs, will need to be analyzed usingdifferent analytic tools, and will be characterized separately below. Themarkets for color TVs and autos in Poland. however, are structurally verysimilar.

3. First, the markets for autos, color TVs and butter are described.In each case results of the analysis are presented. Subsequently, the modelsunderlying these analyses are presented. Detailed methodological issues arediscussed in that section. In the appendix, we discuss the generation of thedata set, and methodological issues related to obtaining estimates of cross-elasticities of demand in the presence of price controls and shortages.

AUTOMOBILES

4. first recognize that Polish autos and imported autos are nothomogeneous products. Poland imports autos from a number of foreign countriesincluding Japan, Germany, Sweden11, as well as CMEA imports, most notably fromCzechoslovakia and the Soviet Union. Imported vehicles generally sell forconsiderably more than that of domestic vehicles (on the domestic freemarket), and reflect assessed quality premia for the imports from Westerncountries.

5. Production of automobiles in Poland is done by two large stateowned enterprises, based on Fiat engineering. A license to produce the PolskiFiat 125p was purchased from the Italian auto-maker Fiat in the mid-1960s.This vehicle is produced by the Polish company FSO, at its Warsaw factory, intwo very similar versions now called the FSO 1300 and the FSO 1500. A licenseto produce the somewhat less expensive Polski Fiat 126p was purchased fromFiat in the early 1970s. The 126p is produced by the Polish company FSM. Themost expensive Polish auto is the Polonez; it is produced by FSO, and wasdesigned with the cooperation of Fiat.

I/ Imports from Western countries are generally for hard currency sales.

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6. The market for domestically produced autos has been characterizedfor many years by severe shortages. The official price of domesticallyproduced autos is controlled at a level which induces great excess demand.The weighted average official price of a Polish made auto in 1988 was 1.27million zloty. At the parallel market exchange rate prevailing in mid-March1989 (2900 zloty to one US dollar), this is equal to 434 US dollars.

7. Given the existence of huge excess demand at the official prices,allocat-on schemes were developed to ration those autos available for thedomestic market. These schemes fall into two principal categories: (1) alottery system; and (2) "asygnata." In 1981, more than 1.5 million peopleentered the lottery for the right to buy a Polish made car at the officialprice. The outcome of the lottery was that all individuals received the rightto buy a car in a certain year. Lucky individuals received the right to buythe car in 1981 or 1982. Unlucky individuals received the year 1987 or later.Individuals paid 50 percent of the official price of the vehicle to enter thelottery, and additional annual payments so that the price was to be paid bythe time their delivery date arrived. Insufficient numbers of cars have betiallocated to meet the requirements of the lottery system, however, so thatcurrently there are about 400,000 people waiting for prepaid 126ps and 70,000for prepaid FSOs.

8. The second method of allocating the cars is called the asygnatasystem. The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Internal Trade decidehow to divide the cars available for domestic consumption. This includes adecision on how many cars should go to the lottery or prepayment system. Carsallocated to the asygnata system are available for allocation as intermediateinput use in enterprises and, more significantly, for individuals. Asygnatasgiven to individuals are awarded either by Ministers (or committees acting ontheir behalf) or by directors of enterprises. Asygnatas have generally beenawarded to the staff of large organizations such as coal mines, central orlocal bureaucracies, country physicians, journalists, taxi drivers,handicapped persons and groups associated with the Council of Ministers. Theasygnata system was severely criticized, since the rules of allocation werenot transparent, and made it easy for the authorities to influence groups ofthe population; it was officially abandoned in January 1989. The number ofcars estimated to be in the asygnata system in 1988 was between 120 and 140thousand vehicles out of 177 thousand produced for the domestic market.!'

9. A final key piece of the market for domestic cars in Poland is theexistence of a free market for resold cars. Large open air markets exist inWarsaw and a few other large cities, where transactions among individuals take

1/ 293,000 autos were produced, but 116,000 were exported; 103,000 of thesewere exported to non-CMEA countries.

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place. In addition, trades occur through advertisements in newspapers.1 Inthis free market, one can buy and sell new or used cars, domestic or foreign.In particular, the price of newly produced domestic autos clears on the resalefree market. This has a number of important implications: (1) any individualcan buy a domestic vehicle if he is willing to pay the market clearing pricefor the domestic vehicle; (2) individuals receiving a vehicle at the officialprice receive a rent equal to the difference between the market clearing priceand the official price. They may choose to sell the car and capture the rentin cash or use the car because they value the use of the car more than theprice they would receive on the free market. In the latter case, they areconsuming the rent. In either case, the producers of the cars do not receivethe incentive to produce more cars through the higher price.V

10. Even the least expensive Polish auto, the 126p, cost an estimated17.5 months of wages for the average Polish worker at the official controlledprice. At the price on the free market, the 126p costs an average of 63.5months of wages. Thus, the value of the rent from receiving an allocatedauto is worth approximately the difference of 46 months of wages.

11. Regarding imported autos, it has been possible for a number ofyears to import these vehicles freely, provided the buyer could obtain "hard"currency. Organizations, such as POLMOT, will import the vehicles for aquoted price in hard currency. The 1989 liberalization of importing, hasopened this process to competition, and reduced the profit margins of theseimporting organizations. In addition, the mid-March liberalization of thecurrency exchange, whereby Poles can freely exchange zloty for dollars

internally (at parallel market rates), implies that the market for importedautos clears.v

1/ Moreover, there is a state owned company, POLMOZBYT, and privateindividuals who advertise in newspapers that sell cars for individualsfor a commission.

2/ In addition, a small number of cars are allocated to the domestic marketfor sale for hard currency; the price charged for these vehicles isclose to the free market price for domestic vehicles, but sufficientlyhigh that few are sold.

i/ Thcse estimates are from Gazeta Bankowa No. 5, 1989, and are based onDecember 1988 data.

i/ Previously, it would have been necessary for some individuals topurchase through the black market in order to satisfy their demands.

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12. A model is developed to simulate the effects of two policychanges. The first is an improvement in the exchange rate policy. Theparallel market exchange rate of 2900 (or more) zloty to one US dollar, isitself distorted (too high) due to the lack of full retention of foreignexchange by exporters. The estimated shadow foreign exchange rate, of 1818zloty to the US dollar, is about 63 percent of the cost of foreign exchangefor individuals.V The opportunity cost of imports to Poland are moreproperly valued at this lower exchange rate. At the higher exchange rates,individuals are discouraged from consuming imported autos. If aggregatepolicies were changed, inducing a lower exchange rate equal to the shadowexchange rate, individuals would import more, generating consumptionefficiency gains.

13. A decrease in the price of imports, has the effect of decreasingthe demand for domestic vehicles. Those who choose to sell their autosobtained through official allocation will receive less rent. This, however,amounts to a transfer from one group of Polish citizens to another. Since noadditional domestic autos are produced, i.e., there is no resourcereallocation, there are no additional welfare benefits from the domesticmarket.

14. The results of this policy are presented in Table 1. The economyis estimated to gain 29 billion zloty (or .10 percent of CDP) in the centralelasticity case. These benefits are a reduction in import d tortions whichinduces greater consumption at the opportunity cost of imports. The impact ofthe policy is simulated in high and low elasticity cases as well Theestimates are presented in Table 1. In the model section we present a figuredepicting the results in the central elasticity cases. For each of the tablesthere is a corresponding figure (with the same number) in the model section.

15. The second policy simulated is the policy of eliminating the pricecontrols. If domestic price controls are removed, there will be an expansionof domestic output due to the greater incentive of the higher prices. In theshort run, output exransion is likely to be small due to capacity constraints,but the model is viewed as a long run model. The greater production of Polish

vehicles increases welfare, because the value to consumers of additionaldomestic vehicles exceeds the opportunity costs of the resources to producethese vehicles. (See Figure 2). Optimum production is achieved at the marketclearing price. Increased production of domestic vehicles reduces the demandfor imported vehicles, but this has no effect on efficiency because there isno price change in the import market.

~/ Exact estimation of a shadow exchange rate is, of course, problematical.The shadow exchange rate is clearly less than the parallel rate.however, and these estimates are illustrative of the impact ofappreciating the parallel exchange rate toward the shadow exchange rate.

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16. The results of the effect of eliminating the price control, underdifferent elasticity assumptions, are shown in Table 2. In the mediumelasticity case, the economy gains 82 billion zloty from eliminating the pricecontrol, or .29 percent of GDP. As a result of eliminating the pricecontrols, imports are reduced to 30.7 thousand units, from 61.6 thousandunits. This implies that imports of autos are less than they would be without

price controls, and leads to the following question: What subsidy rate to

imports would be required to increase imports back to their original level, if

the price controls are not in effect? We get the estimate of 43 percent. Thatis, without domestic price controls the government would have to pay 43

percent of the cost of imported autos, to induce consumers to import as manyautos as they would without price controls. Any smaller subsidy, andconsumers will import fewer autos than in the original 1988 situation afterprice controls are eliminated. Thus, the system of price controls is a verysubstantial implicit subsidy to imports.

COLOR TVs

17. The basic structure of the color TV market in Polar.d is similar tothe auto market. Imported and domestic TVs are not homogeneous. Except forsmall tariffs, importing of color TVs is free. One does not need to gothrough the official foreign trade organization to import the TV, and with theforeign currency liberalization one can obtain the foreign exchange if one hasenough zloty. Thus, the market for imported color TVs clears.

18. Domestic color TVs have been in severe shortage. The averagedomestic official price in 1988 was controlled at 394,000 zloty ($136 at the

parallel market exchange rate.) At this controlled price, there is greatexcess demand. Due to the excess demand, the supplies are allocated in a

negotiation process between producers and internal trade organizations (with a

representative of the Ministry of Internal Market present). Internal tradeorganizations are: regional trade organizations, which have retail outlets(one for each of the 50 voivodships); rural cooperatives (CS SamopomocChlopska); and some small trading companies. Sometimes producers sell TV setsto their suppliers, demanding rights to foreign exchange (ROD account rights)in return, in the fashion described by Kornai (1980).

19. The final consumer of the color TV, who wishes to pay the official

price, must wait before stores for days or weeks until a shipment arrives.Those who are waiting at the stores form waiting lists, called 'social waitinglists." These lists determine who has the right to buy a TV at thatparticular store when a shipment arrives. The rules of the waiting list aredetermined by the customers. Although there are cases where the lists areoperated by the staff of the stores, they are unusual. At least one personfrom the list must be at the store at all times, or a newcomer could start alist with his name at the top. Normal procedure obliges everyone on the list

to appear at the store at least once per day at a designated time or his nameis deleted from the list. There are cases of people taking leave from work toassure that they will be able to buy a color TV, and of people who wait inline so they can resell the TV.

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20. Domestic color TVs can, and are, resold. There are open airma:kets where goods are sold (not limited to color TVs), and they are alsosold through advertisements. This free market price is periodically reportedin newspapers, and in 1988 it was two times the official price. Thus, theresale market for color TVs (both new and used) in Poland clears. Individualswho receive a color TV at the official price obtain a rent equal to thedifference in the price on the resale market and the official price.

21. Thus, the structure of the color TV market parallels the automarket in all respects. The same two policy simulations are conducted as wereconducted for the auto market; those results are reported in Tables 3 and 4.The interpretation has been presented in the discussion of autos and is notrepeat here, with one significant exception.

22. In 1989, the official price of the Helios brand large screen colorTV has been raised to 980,000 zloty (from 500,000 zloty in 1988). The priceof this TV on the resale market was about 1 million zloty in 1988. The newofficial price and the resale market price are approximately equal, i.e., theofficial price clears the market. This supports the view of Polish officialswho indicate that they have raised the official price of color TVs toapproximiately market clearing levels in 1989. Thus, the estimates of Table 4should be interpreted as the long run benefits of this policy reform recentlyimplemented by the Polish government.v

BUTTER

23. The structure of production for Polish butter is entirely oppositeof that for autos and color TVs. Instead of a few large state ownedenterprises producing the output, at the core of the production process aresmall dairy farms. About 80 percent of these are private farms. At the locallevel, these farms join together in forming 323 cooperatives for the purposeof marketing their products and performing some aspects of the productionprocess. The national organization that represents and coordinates activitiesamong the 323 local cooperatives is called CZSM.V CZSM plays a crucial rolein allocating imports.

4. The price of domestic butter is controlled. At the price domesticconsumers pay for domestic butter, there would be a mass exodus of Polishfarmers from butter production. Recognizing this fact, the Polish government

j/ In the short run, the output response will be much smaller thanestimated in table 4. Since the benefits of price decontrol derive froman increase of production to the socially optimal level, the benefitswill be smaller in the short run.

2/ The 48 unions of cooperatives at the voivodship level are beingabolished.

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provides large subsidies to the production of butter, which our data indicatewill be about 142 percent of the domestic controlled price in 1989.Y

25. Although there are slight quality differences between domestic andimported butter, these are small enough that it is reasonable to model theseproducts as homogene us. Butter remains one of the greatly reduced numbet of"centrally balanced" products.V In this case it means that the centralgovernment estimates how much butter demand there will be in the year, and howmuch can be met by domestic production. It then authorizes imports of thedifference, which will be expected to approximately cleat the market. Infact, severe shortages, such as characterize the auto and color TV markets,are not observed. Thus, it appears that the market for butter is Polandclears.

26. The story is complicated by the fact that imported butter sellsfor about twice the price of domestic butter. Individuals purchase domesticbutter when available, then buy imported butter. Thus, it is at the higherprice of imported butter that the market is clearing. Those who obtain thedomestic butter, receive a rent equal to the difference between the price ofimported and domestic butter.

27. When the government wants to import butter, it uses CZSM as itsintermediary. CZSM then requests POLCOOP, the foreign trade organization fordairy products, to arrange for the imports. POLCOOP will then receivecentrally allocated foreign exchange at the official exchange rate that willallow it to import the butter. Most butter imports are from the EuropeanCommunity. Since the official exchange rate is considerably undervaluedrelative to our estimates of the shadow exchange rate, the foreign exchangeallocation represents a subsidy from the government to the consumers ofbutter. CZSM allocates the butter imports to its 323 regional organizations,who charge prices that cover their costs, and approximately clear the market.

28. Three simulations are performed. Table 5 presents the results ofreducing the subsidy through the allocation of foreign exchange. What is theimpact of a policy shift in which butter imports musc pay a 23 percent premiumover the official exchange rate; this is a rate that would remain considerably

1/ This is based on a promise by the Rakowski government (when it came topower in late 1988) to increase subsidies to butter production byanother 80 billion zloty, on top of the existing subsidies of 175billion zloty, as part of its plan to increase agricultural subsidies ingeneral.

2.! It is also unusal in that most final goods are not centrally balanced.

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less than the opportunity cost of imports at the shadow exchange rate.V Thesituation is characterized in Figure 5, which is discussed in detail in themodel section. Note that the estimated cost of production is higher than thecost of imports because of the subsidies. Such a policy will have the benefitof reducing inefficiently high butter consumption. In the central elasticitycase the benefits are 16 billion zloty or .058 percent of GDP.

29. In Table 6, the results are presented of eliminating pricecontrols and subsidies, along with the identical exchange rate policy shift inthe previot's simulation. The situation is depicted in Figure 6, discussed inthe model section. An additional 5 billion zloty of benefits are obtained inthe central elasticity case, relative to the results in Table 5, due to asmall increase in production and resulting reduction in import subsidies.Total benefits are 21 billion zloty or .073 percent of GDP. In thissimulation, there are small additional benefits from decontrolling prices,because there is almost no production response. The reason there is verylittle production response is that the subsidies to producers have beeneliminated (but not subsidies to consumers of imports) so that on net there isonly a slight increase in the price received by producers relative to thesubsidy inclusive price previously realized. Note, however, the largereduction in the subsidies paid by the government, which includes the directsubsidies to farmers as well as the implicit subsidies to consumers throughthe exchange rate.

30. The continued subsidy to imports, through centrally allocatedforeign exchange at rates well below shadow or parallel market rates in thesimulations of Table 6, restrains the supply response of producers. Thus, inTable 7 presents the results of a simulation that eliminates price controlsand subsidies, and also more significantly reduces subsidies to consumptionthrough the exchange rate. The experiment is depicted as Figure 7, discussedin thle model section. Imports are allowed to enter freely, but foreignexchange must be purchased at twice the official exchange rate. The estimatesindicate that a doubling of the price of foreign exchange will still leave theexchange rate paid for butter imports at less than the shadow exchange rate,which is also less than the parallel market exchange rate.

31. The estimated long run effects indicate a dramatic increase inwelfare from this policy. Poland is estimated to gain 130 billion zloty fromthis policy shift in the central elasticity case; this amount equals almostone-half of one percent of GDP. This amount is decomposed as follows.Consumers of butter in Poland will have to pay higher prices, and many willreduce their consumption of butter. Consumers' surplus on butter consumptionis estimated to be reduced by 540 billion zloty. Producers, however, areestimated to gain 370 billion zloty, and the government reduces is subsidyexpenditures (including its exchange rate subsidies) bv 300 billion zloty.

1/ We choose 23 percent because higher increases in the price of importsresult in Poland being a net exporter of butter in the one of theelasticity cases. The impact of higher price increases for butter, itconsidered in following simulations.

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32. The large benefits derive from the fact that Poland is transformedinto an exporter of butter, as production is increased and consumption isreduced (more from the former than the latter). The benefits of the foreignexchange that Poland earns on butter exports exceeds the opportunity costs oftthe additional resources used in butter production.

33, Since the basic production unit is private farms, a long runsupply elasticity of unity does not seem excessive in this central elasticitycase. Despite receiving large subsidies from the government, this policysimulation suggests that the Polish dairy farmer is significantly adverselyaffected when the government policies of price controls and subsidized importsare weighed in the balance. This confirms the conjectures of representativesof the Polish uairy industry whom we interviewed.

34. The combination of the results of Tables 6 and 7 show theimportance of examining the various government policies of price controls,import subsidies and subsidies together. Eliminating all the distortionsresults in substantial benefits to Poland. However, piecemeal reduction ofsome of the distortions results in much smaller benefits due to theinterrelated effects.

THE MODEL FOR AUTOS AND COLOR TVs

35. Quality differences between Polish autos and imported (especiallyfrom the West) are considered quite significant such that a differentiatedmodel is necessary.y We conduct the analysis using comparative statics. Themodel is characterized by equations 1-4. Domestic variables are denoted byuppercase letters and imported vrcriables are denoted by lower case letters.

(1) Pc - Pc' The domestic controlled price isfixed

(1') ln(Q) = A + B ln(P) + C ln[p(l+t)] Demand for domesticautos on the free market

(2) ln(Q) D + E ln(Pc) Supply of domestic autos

(3) ln(q) - a + b ln(P) + c ln [p(l+t)J + s ln(Q) Demand for imported autos

(4) p(l+t) - k Supply price of imported autos(tariff inclusive)

36. Equations 1 and 3 are the demand functions for domestic andimported autos, respectively. They are discussed in detail in appendix A, butwe provide an intuitive explanation here. Since the goods are related theprice of imports is a parameter in the demand function of imported autos.

2/ We discuss the model using autos as the example. The arguments alsoapply to color TVs unless otherwise stated.

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P in equation 1 is the free market price, not the controlled or officialprice. This is because if one obtains a car at the official price, and doesnot sell it on the free market, he bears an opportunity cost equal to theprice on the free market. Thus, the quantity of autos demanded is determinedby the free market price, not the controlled price. Since imports anddomestic goods are substitutes, the tariff inclusive delivered price ofimports, p(l+t), enters the demand function for domestic autos. The demandfunctions are written in natural logarithmic form, so that the parameters Band C are own and cross-elasticities of demand, respectively.

37. Equation 2 is the supply curve of domestic autos. It depends onthe price received by auto producers, which is the controlled or officialprice denoted Pc.

38. In equation 4, the small country assumption is adopted, and it isassumed that imports of autos are supplied to Poland at a delivered price, indollars, that Poland cannot influence. Poland does, however, have the abilityto impose tariffs and influence its exchange rate, so that the price toconsumers of imported autos in zloty can be altered.

39. Equation 3 is the demand function for imported autos. Due to theprice control on domestic autos, there is a shortage of domestic autos; thus,the appropriate method of modelling the impact of changes in the market fordomestic autos on the demand for imported autos involves disequilibriummodelling techniques. These issues are somewhat complicated, especially inthe selection of an asupropriate measure of the elasticities, and are discussedin detail in the appendix. Note, however, that the demand function forimported autos must include both the controlled price of domestic autos, andthe quantity of domestic autos produced, and that the free market price ofdomestic autos does not influence the demand for imported autos.

40. Equation 1 states that the controlled price is fixed at Pc'. Itis this equation that applies in the first policy experiment, where pricecontrols are maintained, and the import regime is liberalized. When pricecontrols are removed, equation 1' replaces equation 1. In the first policyexperiment, however, equation l' is used to estimate the value of the rentfrom receiving an allocated auto.

41. In the case of autos, estimates of the own price and incomeelasticities are obtained from the econometric study of the Polish auto marketby Charemza, Gronicki and Quandt (1988). Their broad conclusion is that theprice elasticities of demand are high (usually greater than unity), but theincome elasticity is low. Thus, in the central elasticity case, we take theown elasticities (B and c) to be equal to -1 and the income elasticity to beequal to .5. The income elasticity is used in the appendix to estimate the

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cross-elasticities. These values are: C - .35; b - -.01; and s - -2.0,i. In

the central elasticity case, we assume the elasticity of supply with respectto the price received by auto producers is .5. The high and low elasticityestimates are obtained by doubling and halving all elasticity estimates,respectively.

42. In order to obtain up to date estimates, the model is benchmarkedin 1988. Thus, data is obtained on the values of Q, q, P, Pc, and p(l+t) for1988 and assume that these values are a solution to our system of equations1-4. The details of the obtaining the data are discussed in the appendix.Given the above values of the elasticities, this allows us to solve for theconstants A, D and a. Note that the solution implies that there is a shortagein the market for domestic autos at the controlled price.

43. Given these values, two policy changes are simulated: (1) theimpact of reducing the import price, denominated in zloty, by adoptingefficient foreign exchange retention policies; then the import price is theforeign tariff inclusive delivered price converted at the shadow exchangerate, rather than the parallel market exchange rate; and (2) the impact ofremoving the price control. These policies are depicted in Figures 1 and 2,respectively. Curves representing the initial equilibrium are depicted withsuperscripts zero, and those of the new equilibrium after the policy shift areshown with a superscript 1.

44. Policy change 1 is depicted in Figure 1. The decrease in theprice of Imports reduces the demand for domestic autos, because the goods aregross substitutes.V There is no feedback effect on the price of importedautos, however, which depends on Pc and Q', which have not changed.2 Sincethe world price is given, no further adjustments insue.

45. In the domestic market there is no resource reallocation- onlychanges in rent transfers between consumers. Thus, there is no change in

f/ As explained in appendix A, b has a negative sign due to the pricecontrol. An increase in the price of the domestic variety does notincrease the quantity supplied or consumed (that is, it has no"substitution" effect), but has an adverse income effect.

ZI Good A is a gross substitute for good B if an increase in the price ofgood A will increase the demand for good B.

if As discussed in the appendix, since the quantity of domestic autos isfixed, a price decrease of domestic autos has no effect on the quantityof domestic autos consumed (it only reduces the rent); there is only anincome effect (in this case an increase in real income), which inducesan increase in the demand for imported autos (contrary to the free pricecase).

12

aggregate consumers' or producers' surplus or change in welfare to be measuredin the domestic market.

46. The welfare gain from the policy shift is simply the shadedtriangle in Figure 1, which would be interpreted as the efficiency gains fromincreased consumption of imports, which are permitted by removing thedistortion on the price of imports.

47. Policy change 2, is depicted in Figure 2. The welfare effect isequal to the value of the shaded area. In the domestic market, the value ofadditional autos to consumers exceeds the marginal costs initirlly. Thisdistortion is entirely removed. Since there is no change in the distortion inthe import market, there are no additional benefits in that sector.

48. In the case of color TVs, in the central elasticity case, we takethe own price elasticities to be -.855, based on the estimates of Shiells,Deardorf and Stern (1986). We also use this source for the income elasticity,which is 1.65. The supply elasticity is taken to be .5 in the centralelasticity case, and the cross elasticities, which are derived by theprocedures explained in the appendix are C - .4; b - -.004; and s = -1.32.

49. The same simulations, as in the auto case, are performed. Theresults are presented in Tables 3 and 4, and depicted in Figures 3 and 4, withsimilar interpretations which are not repeated. The main difference is thatthe price decontrol experiment should be interpreted as the benefits Polandhas gained as a result of its new policies in 1989.

50. It is worth noting that the implicit subsidy to imports due tothe price controls is 22 percent in the case of color TVs as opposed to 43percent in the case of autos. These numbers are interpreted as the subsidy toimports that would be necessary to induce an increase in imports back to the1988 level, if the government were to eliminate the domestic price controls.1'In the initial equilibrium, the data indicate that free market autos sell for2.8 times the controlled price, compared with a ratio of 2 for color TVs.Ceterus paribus, freeing the price of domestic autos should lead to a greaterexpansion of domestic production and a greater substitution for importedautos; this in turn requires a greater import subsidy to induce an increase inimports to their original level.

THE BUTTER MODEL

51. Quality differences between imported and domestic butter aresufficiently small that we model the product as homogeneous. The model isdescribed by equations 1-3.

LI The policy is simulated by changing equation 4 to u*p*(l+t), removingprice controls, and finding the value of u that yields imports in theoriginal equilibrium. The implicit subsidy is then 1-u.

13

(1) Qd - A + Bp Demand for butter

(2) Qs - C + D*P(l+s) Supply of domestic butter

(3) Qs + q - Qd Market Equilibrium

52. Upper case letters are used for domestic variables and lower caseletters for imported variables. Although the equations of the model aresimple, they characterize a complex interrelationship of policy instruments inthe Polish butter market. Qs is the quantity supplied of domestic butter, andis characterized in equation 2. The domestic price P is controlled, butproducers receive a subsidy at rate s. Thus, the subsidy inclusive nricereceived by producers is P(l+s), and producers will supply more if the subsidyinclusive price increases.

53. Qd is the demand for butter by Polish residents; it includes thedemand for imported and domestic butter. The price of imported butter isgreater than the price of domestic butter P. Thus, consumers buy domesticbutter until supplies are exhausted, then switch to imported butter.Consumers' demand at the margin are determined by the higher priced importedbutter, which we denote by p. In our third simulation, p - P, and isinterpreted as the price Polish producers of butter receive for exports. Boththe intercept (A) and the slope (B) of the demand equation (1) will beeffected by shortages and disequilibrium conditions in other markets asexplained in the Appendix A and in papers by Podkaminer (1982, 1988).

54. q is the quantity of net imports; if it is negative there are netexports. The best characterization of current export policy is that they areprohibited; thus, in our first two simulations, exports are prohibited. Theamount of imports, q, is centrally controlled. As discussed above, butterremains one of the few goods, after the reforms of early 1989, to obtaincentrally allocated foreign exchange. Centrally allocated foreign exchangemeans the imports are paid for at the official exchange rate, i.e., they arehighly subsidized. Based on estimates of the difference between Qd and Qs,the authorities request an amount of imports q, through CZSM, which willapproximately clear the market.

55. Given that the basic supplying units are private farms, a long runsupply elasticity of unity is used in the central elasticity case. Sincebutter is an agricultural product, it is assumed to have an inelastic demand;a value of -.2 is assumed in the central elasticity case.Y Averaging thetotal subsidies to butter producers over the total output yields an averagerate of subsidy of 142 percent, i.e., s - 1.42 in equation 2.

1/ Since we are simulating policies that will increase the price, ourlinear demand will show less of a price increase for a given quantityincrease than a constant elasticity of demand curve benchmarked at thesame initial elasticity. Thus, we need to take a less elastic demandcurve, to compensate for the linearity bias.

14

56. Values of subsidies, P, p, Qs, Qd and q in 1988 are obtained, andit is assumed that they represent an equilibrium of the model. Together withthe elasticities, this allows to solve for the parameters A and C.

57. Three policies are simulated. First, assume that the subsidy toimports is reduced, by charging 23 percent more than the official exchangerate for centrally allocated foreign exchange. Then, the price of importsincreases by 23 percent, and the market clears with less imports.

58. The simulation is depicted in Figure 5. Since domestic pricesremain controlled there is no production response. Consumers of butter losesurplus equal to the area MNRQ. There is, however, a reduction in subsidiesthat exceeds the lost consumers' surplus. The reduction in subsidies is thesum of two rectangles: MNVQ and VRST. Poland continues to import NV of butteron which subsidies have been reduced by MNVQ, but this area is not a gain inwelfare to the economy because it is offset by lost consumers' surplus. Tothe extent that Poland reduces its consumption of imported butter, the totaisubsidy to the importing is saved. The per unit subsidy is difference betweenthe cost of butter at the shadow exchange rate and the cost of butter at theofficial exchange rate. Conservatively, the shadow exchange rate is valued attwice the official exchange rate for these simulations.)/ Thus, the area VRSTis the savings in subsidies to butter importing from this policy. Thetriangle QVR is lost consumers' surplus, so the net gain to the economy inthis simulation is the shaded area TSRQ, or 16 billion zloty in the centralelasticity case.

59. The second policy is to allow the same reduction to importsubsidies as the previous simulation, but to also terminate both governmentprice controls and subsidies to domestic producers. The simulation, in thecentral elasticity case is depicted in Figure 6. The termination of the pricecontrol allows domestic producers to achieve the market price, so that P - p -

1650 in this simulation. The elimination of the 142 percent subsidy, however,implies that the producers receive only a slight increase in the subsidyinclusive price received. That is, producers lose their government subsidiesequal to the area HIOL, but due to the higher market price received, there isnonetheless a small increase in producers' surplus equal to the area KLOP -6.4 billion zloty.

60. The loss in consumers' surplus is equal to MQRN + KMHI. Theformer rectangle is the value of the lost consumers' surplus on importedbutter. The latter rectangle, which is much greater, is the loss in surpluson domestic butter purchases, which are now much higher to consumers becauseof the combination of reduced subsidies and increased prices to producers.The rectangle KMHI of consumer losses does not affect the net assessment ofutility because LOHI is an offsetting reduction in government subsidies andKLOM is captured by producers. There are three additional rectangles ofgovernment subsidy reduction: WXYN + PQVY + TSRV. The latter two have been

~,./ Our estimates above suggest a value of three times the official exchangerate would be more accurate.

15

discussed in the context of the previous simulation. Since there is anadditional reduction in imports, equal to the distance NY, due to the domesticproduction increase, there is a reduction in subsidies to imports equal toWXYN; this area is interpreted analogously to TSRV. Thus, on balance the twoshaded areas WXPO + TSRQ represent the value of the net increase in utility.

61. The third policy that we simulate is the impact of eliminating thelarge subsidies to producers, all other distortions and policies remainingintact. In particular, the policies of price controls and of providingcentrally allocated foreign exchange for imports to approximately clear themarket is assumed to continue.

62. The result of this policy is a classic second best situation,where the impact of removing one distortion in the presence of others turnsout to be welfare reducing. Eliminating the producer subsidies results in asignificant reduction in production from domestic sources. Due to the pricecontrol, however, there is too little domestic production for what isefficient.

63. The simulation is depicted graphically in Figure 7, and theresults are presented in Table 7. Imports are increased to compensate for theloss in domestic production, but the opportunity cost of imports isconsiderably greater than the domestic marginal costs of butter production.In fact the loss to the economy is the area between the opportunity cost ofthe imports and the supply (marginal cost) curve over the range of quantityreduction. THis can be shown by decomposing the welfare loss. The change inconsumers' surplus is the area -Ql - Tl. The change in producers' surplus isthe area -R2 - R3 - Q2 - T1. The gain in government revenue from thereduction in subsidies is the area R2 + R3 + Q2 + Tl +Ql +T2 - Q2 - T2 - RI.Summing all these areas yields -R1 - Q2 - Tl for the change in welfare.

64. The loss to the economy in the central elasticity case is 240billion zloty which is a very substantial .85 percent of Polish GDP. Althoughthere is a reduction in government subsidies to producers of 255 billionzloty, there is an increase in the implicit subsidy value of the centrallyallocated foreign exchange import subsidies, yielding a reduction in subsidiesof only 45 billion zloty.

65. The final simulation considers a full liberalization of the buttermarket. First, take a more significant reduction in subsidies to imports, bydoubling the costs of centrally allocated foreign exchange when importingbutter. The effects of decontroling domestic prices and eliminating subsidiesto producers are also simulated. Finally, in this simulation we assume thatexports are permitted (there are no exports presently), and that domesticproducers will be able to receive the higher price for their exports as wellas their domestic sales. This simulation is depicted in Figure 8.

66. As a result of eliminating import subsidies the price of importsrises to 2684; since producers are permitted to receive this amount, Poland istransformed into a net exporter of butter. Net exports are equal to thedistance WS. Producers lose their subsidies (the area ONPM), but these are

16

compensated by additional market revenues, and producers' surplus rises by thearea NPSK.

67. Since the cost of butter rises, consumption falls to KW or 241thousand tons. Consumers pay the higher price on both imported and domesticbutter, so there is a large loss in consumer's surplus of butter, equal to thearea KWQYMO. This is decomposed as losses on prior consumption of importedbutter (LQY) plus losses on consumption of domestic butter (KWLMO).

68. The government gains revenue from the reduction in producer andconsumer subsidies equal to the sum of the two areas NPMO and XTQY. The gainin revenue from reduced butter subsidies can reduce taxes elsewhere, or beused to purchase public goods; thus, they represent a gain to the economyvalued by consumers in other sectors. The overall gain to the economy is theincrease in producers' surplus plus the decrease in government subsidies lessthe loss in consumers' surplus on butter consumption.

69. Representatives of the Polish butter industry who wereinterviewed (CSZM) contend that without government restraints on prices andexports, they would expand output and turn Poland into a net exporter ofbutter; and that the subsidies they receive from the government are worthconsiderably less to them than greater market access at undistorted signals.These estimates confirm their conjectures.

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APPENDIX A

DEMAND FUNCTIONS IN DISEQUILIBRIUM CONDITIONS:IMPORTED AUTOS AND COLOR TVs IN POLAND

First discussed is the derivation of the form of the demandfunctions for imported autos and color TVs (equation 3). Subsequentlypresented is a discussion of how the cross-elasticities in equation 3 arederived and interpreted. Finally, this section discusses the derivation andinterpretion the cross-elasticity in equation l.S

The Form of the Demand Function for Imported Autos

The explanation for autos and color TVs is identical, so theexample of autos is used in the discussion. In the text, the demand forimported autos is expressed as:

(3) ln q - a + b ln Pc + c ln p (t+l) + s ln Q'.

If this were a model in which the domestic market for autoscleared, ln Q' would not appear in the demand for autos. That is, standardconsumer demand theory, yields the result that the demand for any good dependson prices and the income of the consumer. Due to price controls on domesticautos, however, the problem is different and can be conceived of as follows.

Let there be three goods: domestic autos (Q), imported autos (q)and a composite of other goods (X). Assume that the consumer is arepresentative consumer and wishes to maximize utility u(Q, q, X), subject toincome and prices.

The essential feature of the Polish domestic auto market is thatit is in shortage. Regardless of the price on the free market for domesticautos, the aggregate consumption of domestic autos is fixed. Within the rangeof rhe relevant policy experiments to be considered, whatever is produced andoffered at the official price Pc, will be purchased by domestic consumers.

Since the consumer is representative, he is assumed to receive aproportionate share of total autos allocated. Let Q - Q' denote the fixedamount of domestic autos allocated to the consumer. There is a resale marketfor domestic autos, which clears, but sales on this market do not affect thequantity of domestic autos consumed, which is fixed at nQ' (where n is thenumber of consumers). Sales on the resale market only reprcsent incometransfers among consumers. Moreover, since they are only transfers, they co

1/ I wish to thank Fernando Saldanha for many useful discussions regardingdisequilibrium modelling as it applies to the material in this appendix.

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not affect total income available to all consumers for purchase of the othergoods, q or X. Thus, the consumer consumes his fixed allocation of Q Q',for which he pays Pc and his problem is reduced to:

(Al) max u(Q', q, X) S.T. Y - PcQ' + pq + PxX.

where Y - income and Px the price of X, and the other variables have beendefined in the text.

Define U(q, X; Q') u(Q', q, X)

and Y' - Y - PQ'.

U is utility as a function of q, and X with Q' as a parameter andY' is residual income available for purchase of q and X after the consumerpurchases Q' at the controled price.

Then the consumer?s utility maximization problem may be rewrittenas:

(A2) max U(q, X; Q') S.T. Y' - pq + PxX

From A2, maximization of U subject to Y' yields that theconsumer's demand function for q is:

'A3) q -d[p, P.; Y' (Pc,Q'), Q'1

where the parameters on which residual income depend have been explicitlyincorporated. Note that the demand function has the additional parameter Q',because the utility function depends on Q'.

In addition, both Pc and Q', thowever, have an effect on the demandfor q through their impact on Y.. Thus, both are included in the demandfunction for imported autos in equation 3.'. Other changes in income areincorporated in the constant a.

Note, that the free market price, P, for autos on the resalemarket is not included in the demand function for imported autos. This isbecause P has no effect on the amount of domestic autos consumed, due to theshortage, i.e., there is no substitution effect; and a change in P has aredistributive effect among consumers, but does not affect aggregate residual

1/ Following standard practice in applied microeconomic modelling, weassume that utility is weakly separable between autos and the compositegood X. This implies that the consumer demand function for domestic andimported autos may be written without explicit reference to the price ofthe composite good X. That is, the price of the composite good willaffect demand for autos only through its impact on income allocated toaggregate auto consumption.

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income available of all consumers for the purchase of q or X, i.e., there isno aggregate income effect of a change in the free market price.

The Demand Function for Domestic Autos

As indicated above, the controlled price of domestic autos is solow, that the aggregate amount offered by domestic firms will be purchased.That is, for large changes in the price of domestic autos, the quantitydemanded will not change. For some purposes, however, it is useful to knowwhat is the d3mand curve for domestic autos if the quantity allocated ofdomestic autos were not fixed. This would allow assessment of rent transfersamong consumers, and, more importantly, determine new equilibrium prices andwelfare effects in the event of price decontrol.

Suppose then that there is no price control and the quantity ofdomestic autos available to the consumer is a variable over which he canoptimize. Then the form of the Marshallian demand function for domestic autosis standard:

(A4) Q -D(P, p. Px; Y)

Again using the weak separability assumption, the price of Px is notexplicitly incorporated and income effects are incorporated in the constant ofthe equation, yielding the form employed in the empirical work:

(A5) ln Q - A + B ln P + C ln p(t+1).

Since this demand curve is "notional," there is a potentialproblem of obtaining data to benchmark it. Neary and Roberts (1980) havedeveloped the technique of "virtual" prices that would allow the estimation ofthe price that would clear the market for domestic Polish autos, provided theform of the demand function, the initial quantity and controlled price areknown. Fortunately, however, there is data available on points of the demandcurve A5, so it is not necessary to estimate this value. There are resaleopen air markets for domestic autos in Poland that clear. An individual whoreceives no initial allocation of domestic autos can go to these markets andpurchase a new domestic auto at the free market price. Individuals who decideto consume their allocated autos, pay an opportunity cost equal to the freemarket price. Thus, it is possible to obtain observations of points on thedemand curve A5, since the free market price is the price at which theMarshallian demand curve clears for the number of autos produced, given otherparameters in the economy affecting demand.

With the demand curve A5, it will be possible to determine thevalue to consumers of additional units of Q deriving from an easing ortermination of domestic price controls. Equation 3 will continue to beemployed for the demand function of imported autos in the price decontolexperiment. One can think of a sequential easing of price controls,asymtotically approaching full price decontrol, where the rational forequation 3 holds at any particular controlled price and fixed quantity.Conceiving of the problem in this manner avoids the problem of benchmarking a

20

new demand function for imported autos (which would depend on the free marketprice of domestic autos) for which there is no observed data.

Cross-Elasticities in the Demand for Imgorted Autos

From A3, one can obtain and interpret appropriate values for thecross-elasticities of equation (3). First consider the elasticity of demandfor imported autos with respect to a cl-s&e in the price (free) of domesticautos. Taking partial derivatives from A3:

22 2- 22Pc 2Y 2Pc

From the definition of Y':

2X - -

2Pc

Thus b, of equation 3, can be expressed as

b- Fc Za Pc 2q (-Q')q 2Pc q 2Y

Define the income elasticity of imported autos as

e ang XY2Y q

Then rearranging yields:

b - -Ped e - SQ * e

where SQ - Q' is the share of residual income spent on domestic autos.

That is the cross elasticity of import demand with respect to the price ofdomestic autos, reduces to the share of residual income spent on domesticautos times the income elasticity of demand for imported autos. Based on theestimates of Charemza, Gronicki and Quondt (1988) who estimate small valuesfor the income elasticity of demand for Polish autos, the value of e - .5 isassumed; then given data on SQ, b - - .02.

In the case of color TVs, e - 1.65 is assumed, based on estimatesfrom Shiells, Deardorff and Stern (1986). Then b - -.03.

Note that, although small the value of b is negative. Thiscontrasts sharply with models that are equilibrium models. Here the increasein the price of domestic autos does not induce an increase in domesticquantity, so there is no substitution effect. There is only an income effectof the domestic price increase, which reduces demand for all normal goods,including imported autos.

21

Now consider s, the elasticity of demand for imported autos withrespect to the quati'tty of domestic autos. Differentiate A3 with respect to achange in the amount of domestic autos allocated. The change in demand forimported autos is:

(A6) 2q 2- 22 + 2q2Q' 2Y'2Q' 2Q'(residual income constant)

A6 decomposes the change in the demand for imported autos when the quantity ofdomestic autos changes into two components: the first term is the incomeeffect on purchases of imported autos when an additional unit of domesticautos becomes available; and the second term is the substitution effect.

From the definition of residual income, this first term is equal to:

2g (-Pc).2Y1

Now consider the second term 2.2Q*

First suppose that the goods are perfect substitutes. Then a one unitincrease in the quantity of domestic autos available would, absent incomeeffects, decrease the purchase of imported autos by exactly one unit. That is,Zg - 1. If the goods are not perfect substitutes, a one unit increase in2Q#domestic autos uill induce less than one unit decrease in imported autos, say-v, where 0 < v < 1, is a product differentiation parameter, where smallervalues imply the goods are less perfect subsititutes. v is assumed, in thisstudy to take the value .7.

Combining these results yields:

2a - _ag (-Pc) - v.

2Q' 2Y'

Multiplying both sides by Q'/q and the first term by one in the form ofqY'/qY', yields the elasicity s:

s - Q. .q - - SQ * e - v Q'q 2Q' q

Note, that the first term in the elasticity of import auto demand with respectto the supply of domestic autos, s, is identical to the elasticity of importauto demand with respect to the domestic controlled price. This is because itis the income effect of the change in quantity and it affects residual incomein a symmetric manner to the price of domestic autos.

22

The Cross-Elasticity in the Demand for DoMestic Autos

Finally, we require the value C, the cross-elasticity of demandfor domestic autos with respect to the price of imported autos. As mentionedabove, we assume the consumer's utility function for autos (imported anddomestic) is "weakly separable" from all other goods. Tarr (1986) has shownthat based on weakly separable utility a 'modified Cournot aggregationcondition" applies, which in this context reduces to:

(A5) SQ'*C + Sq*c + Sq- 2YA 2p YA

where Sq- pE SQ' POYA YA

YA- income allocated to autos, and C and c are from equations 1and 3.

The shares are known data and we have an estimate of the ownelasticity of demand. The term on the right of A5 is the elasticity of demandof income allocated to aggregate auto consumption with respect to a change inthe price of imported autos. It is reasonable to assume that a change in theprice of imported autos has only a small impact on the income allocated toautos; we take this value to be .25. We thus solve A5 for C - .35 in the caseof autos and C - .40 for color TVs.

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APPENDIXJ B

DATA SOURCES IN AUTOS, COLOR TVS AND BUTTERY.. . ........................ ...... ............. .....

In this appendix we describe the sources of the data which we usedin the models of the text. Most of the data was obtained from the Polishgovernment's Central Statistical Office (CSO) in Warsaw. Since we desired tohave the most recent time period as possible, we obtained printouts availablein the Central Statistical Office. Eventually these data will be published inofficial sources, but ware not published at the time this study was written.Import data relating to imports for personal consumption, called "privateimports," were taken from printouts of the Customs Administration CSOprintout data are subject to revision, but the revision is expected to besmall. Unless otherwise specified, CSO printouts are our source. Recentchanges in the classification of these data, has made them all publiclyavailable.

AUTOS

There were 38,700 FSOs produced in 1988; 206,448 126ps; and 48,300Polenezs for total domestic production of 293,448. The quantity of exportswas 116,049, yielding 177,399 thousand autos produced for the domestic market.We take this latter number as Q in our model. There were 61.6 thousandimported autos in 1988, which is our value for q.

For the domestic free price of domestic autos P, we used theweekly magazine Zvcie Gospodarcze. This weekly magazine publishes the pricesof autos in 'he open air markets (although not all vehicles prices arepublished in every issue). We first took an average of the prices publishedthere for the year for three vehicles: 126p, FSO (1300) and Polenez. Thisaverage was arrived at by first averaging the available published data forthese vehicles within each month to obtain an observation for each vehicle foreach month. Then the 12 monthly observations were averaged for each vehicleseparately. These annual average prices were then weighted by the shares ofthese vehicles in total production, based on the data in the previousparagraph.

The controlled price of the Polonez in July 1988 was 2.5 millionzloty; it was 1.9 million zloty for the FSO 1500. For the 126p we estimatethe official price at .845 million zloty as an average of the prices between

I/1 The data were collected by Bohdan Wyznikiewicz.

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December 1987 and December 1988.1 The weighted average price is 1.27 millionzloty.

To obtain the relevant price of imports it is necessary to make afew adjustments. The value of imports are reported in official statistics atthe official exchange rate. The average official exchange rate in 1988 was434 zloty per dollar. Thus, the value of an imported $7,000 Toyota will bereported as $7,000*434 zloty. Imports generally must be paid for in dollars;thus it is the parallel market exchange rate that is relevant. The averageparallel market exchange rate in 1988 was 1979 zloty per dollar, or 4.555times the average official exchange rate.

The average unit value of an imported vehicle was .904 millionzloty, which we multiply by 4.55 to obtain 4.12 million zloty as the averageunit value at the parallel market exchange rate. Finally, we add 3 percentfor transportation, and markups, yielding 4.24 million zloty for our estimateof p.

The tariff rate on CMEA imports is 0 (CMEA imports are about one-third of total imports), and on non-CMEA imports it is 3.7 percent. Tariffsare paid in zloty on the imports valued at the official exchange rate. Thus,the average tariff rate is less than one percent when the imports are valuedat the parallel market exchange rate.

COLOR TVs

The quantity of domestic production Q was 293,500 units; this wastaken from Biuletvn StatYstycznv Nol/1989, a monthly bulletin of the CSO, butalso checked with the CSO printouts. The quantity of imports was 156,136units.

The average retail price Pc for a Polish TV was 394,000 zloty.The free market price was approximately twice the controlled price. Thelatter price is obtained through checking newspaper quotes and interviews.

1/ The December 1988 price was obtained from Gazeta Bankova, No. 5, 1989.The December 1987 price was obtained from the Statistical Yearbook ofthe Central Statistical Office, p.405.

2.1 This is the tariff rate when the auto is imported by official "ForeignTrade Organizations," (organizations licensed to import") of which thereare now many who are in competition. An individual who wishes to importfor his own use will pay a different tariff rate, which is currentlyapproximately 5 percent. The tariff rate on "personal imports" wassufficiently different in 1986 and 1987 that personal imports werereduced by over 75 percent, while official imports increased. Currently,inflation has eroded the personal import tariff rate, which is aspecific tariff.

25

Regarding the price of imports, these data are unavailable through

official foreign trade aggregate statistics. Through interviews at the CSO,

we found that the average price of all color TVs sold in Poland, both foreign

and domestic, is 323,000 zloty, where the imports are valued at the official

exchange rate. Then if A - the amount spent on all TVs, where the imports are

valued at the official exchange rate, A - 323,000 zloty * 449,636. If B - the

amount spent on domestic color TVs, B - 293,500 * 394,000 zloty. Then A - B

is the amount spent on imported color TVs valued at the official exchange

rate, and (A - B)/156,136 the average price of an imported color TV valued

at the official exchange rate. Following the discussion for autos, we must

multiply this value by 4.55 to obtain the average price of imported TVs at the

parallel market exchange rate, which is the relevant price for the consumer.

This value is 863,867 zloty.

The tariff rate on imports from the West is 1.3 percent, and 0 on

CMEA imports. The weighted average tariff rate is 1.1 percent, which yields

873,450 as the average tariff inclusive price of imports, p(l+t) in our

equations.

BUTTE

For the quantity of domestic production, Q, we have 266,900 metric

tons, taken from Biuletyn Statystvczny Nol/1989. The quantity of imports is

34,600 tons, taken from internal publications of the CSO.

The average price paid by consumers for butter from all sources is

748 zloty per kilogram (obtained from interviews at the CSO). Based on

interviews at CZSM, we determine that imported butter sells for approximately

twice the price of domestic butter. Since we have the quantity data, we have

that:

PQ + pq - 301,500 * 748 zloty

PQ + 2Pq P[Q + 2q] - 301,500 * 748 zloty.

Then, P - 671 zloty per kilogram, and p - 1342 zloty per kilogram.

Regarding subsidies, there were 175.079 billion zloty in regular

subsidies given during 1988 (from CZSM). Moreover, an additional 80 billion

of subsidies are promised to the butter producers in 1989. We take the sum of

these values, 255.079 billion as amount of subsidies received by producers

under present policies. We convert the total amount of subsidies to an ad

valorem rate, by defining PQ + Subsidies PQ(l+s), where s is the ad valorem

subsidy rate. Then [PQ + Subsidies]/PQ (l+s) - 2.42.

Finally, there are indirect subsidies to consumers of butter

through the allocation of foreign exchange at the official exchange rate for

butter imports. Let pq - the value of butter imports in zloty at the official

exchange rate, i.e., pq - ERo*PW*q, where PW - the world price of butter

imports in dollars. Let ERs - the shadow exchange rate, defined as a scalar

multiple of the official exchange rate, i.e., ERs - w*ERo. Then, ERs*PW*q -

the opportunity cost to Poland (in zloty) of the butter imports. The

26

difference between the opportunity cost of imports at the shadow exchange rateand the value of the imports subsidized through centrally allocated foreignexchange is the implicit subsidy to consumers of butter. That is,

(w-l)*pq - initial subsidies.

We assume, conservatively, based on the accompanying work on exchange rates,that ERs - 2*ERo initially, i.e., w - 2. Then pq - initial subsidies toconsumers - 46 billion zloty.

- 27 -

KIAC 01 IUUIIAtI6UC IACOICOIG0IC IOU1161 UCSEIfiDISThICUIOIS Of tU Um wIIT III POUID al

Istiute talues......... ......

La k1.4 lish1988 Data Iloticities Eluticities Elaticities=............ ....................... ... .... ....... ..............................

1. DeoSotie Cotrolled ice 1.2? 1.21 1.2? 1."

2. Imtie Im Price 3.54 3.0) 3.00 2.96

3. Iport Price (tariff ileuuive) 4.26 2.6? 2.61 2.6?

4. Dometic antity I1I ItT lT III

5. Imort DatitJ 61.6 11.6 98.2 15t.6

6. hlfae Gaim (is billiouof sloty) 13 29 1Sof which:

1. Wlfae giu a a Percentage of elr 0.06 0.10 O.X...... ..................... *........ ....................

a/ Prices in Billios of sloty, uatities in thousn of utos, welar gu in billion of I9I slotyor peeotage of 1ll6 estiated Polish WGD.

oree: 1odel Estimates.

- 28 -

Implct of EDmhag f Exch."gsRehuhbft on Polih

DOME= PRO= MOOMUCED

oommoee c Acr

S401 (INHIWJ

OFZLOr1)

3314

rN2u1t\ \\

Sim 26-

m Sl _ _ _t=

177 419 494 6

COOAJ=CU WM (NW# j AN8

a/cD SmWcMLwo OW*4WW

- 29 -

INPICT 01 ELIIIUITIOI 01 MESTIC PuliCICOITIOLS 11 POLISE IOOS e/

st lasted values..... ....... ......

Log bdi 1988 Data Eluticities Ilaticities laticities.. ...... ------ ------ ....... .. ...

1. Domestic Controlled Price 1.21 31 UA

2. Domestic FIee Price 3.54 2.52 2.52 2.52

3. Import Price (tariff icluive) 4.26 4.26 1.26 4.26

4. Domti QIuatity I" 210 250 351

S. m"pot uatity 61.6 43.5 30.1 15.2

6. klfare Gains (II billionof 191 sloty) 3? 82 200

. lelfae Calns as a Perentage of 63? .131 .292 .171

9 Suboid kEivaleat to lprts dueto tie price controls b/ 441 432 422

.. .... . ................ ...........

a/ Prices are im millions of 1988 rloty, qatitles b tolunds of atos, welfare gais i billions of 1968sloty or peestae of 98U estiuted Polish DN.

b/ Th rate of subsidy to isports necessary to reduce iporto to their 1988 level, oace price controls anrmoved.

Sourm: todl Estiutes.

L11 i!iil

~~~ /

w- | ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~i I

- 31 -

TUIU 3

IlPat? 01 ILIII?II ICIOECOIoIC 10f11161 AIGI lRimiC?IOSON S COLOR n UK" 1 POLAND A/

hstated films

Law kdil Sigh16e8 hata lastleittes Ilaticities luaticitls

1. Doetic Costrolled Price 394 394 391 394

2. Dom esti r price M1 lt 634 lO2

3. Import Price (turiff liclie") 813 54 So 54

4. Doetic Quatity 24 214 214 21

S. Iport QuSttity 15 I 24 31

6. elfare is (i billionsof aloty) S 1of which:

1. WIfare Gain as a Pmrata of 6 6.02 0.05 0.14

a/ Priess is t _h of sloty, quatitis is thousa of color Ims, elfare gain in billion of 1I18sloty or p atage of 119 eutiated Polibs P.

Source: 1odel Itsut".

- 32 -

Ponf3Impact d EMI&ftIng Exohng

Restrnht on Podlsh Color TV a/

PMOF fMCEf

00=L CMM aXatll | ~~~~~~~FaIV)

gllaDIY) I & CfZLOY) \

3U-~~~~~~~~~~~~~7

- -- h

OI OOOMOI AtIAMFAPMCLRv

a/ cmkmvL aAs mw cArW OP#L D WOMIU-4I(lHowIaPwd) (F4iima

aEwLmwcM L1

- 33 -

TaBLE 4

INPICT of ILN 11IM10 01 DoOISTIC PhdCI C01TIOLSII POLIS3 TVi I/

bstimated Value

Log ledlu Uig1988 Dos ulasticities Ilatticities llasticities..... ........ ......... ............ . .

1 Dometie Coatrolled Price 394 IA U U

. Domestic fIee Price M8 610 610 610

3. Imort Price (tariff i4clusive) 113 873 873 873

4. Dootetic Quantity 294 321 365 4I5

S. Impo*t Quantity 15 135 llt 61

S. elfare Gains (in bililonsof 1988 aloty) 6.1 14 32

. Welfare GaiS as a Perenttage of uDp .023 .05S .113

8. Susid Equivalent to Imort dueto the Price Controls b/ 233 2n2 21S

.. .. .............. ............................

a/ Prices are is tho usads of 1988 rloty, qb aotities in thounds of color TV., welfare lains is billions of1988 solty or pereltage of 1988 estimated Polish UP.

b/ ?he rate of subsidy to imports necessart to reouce lprts to their 1988 leel, once price coatrols ae

removed.

Sorce: lodel Estimatem.

- 34 -

Pg4Impact doEimhi P Co t C inon or

PoWh Cow 1 Vsa/

PAA PANEL

PMOF asMOoazc 1-coR I COlOF ROM O SaO4OS (

4 \

24 MG II 5caNwVOFDOME=COLORIW QtWcOFL90MCOLi'RlVtI1

- 35 -

TAKE 5

1I F R1ENIW aNIUALUY MUCI7il EIQI E>WI CU TMEOMT fWM IER IN iOMA a/

Estited Values................

I.o cOtaL Hish588 Data Elcetaclties Elasticities Elasticities

................ ............ ................ .. ........... ...

1. Oaitic CmtroUi Price 671 671 671 671

2. Ocautic SUsid/ Imlsiw Price 1UV7 1627 te7 1

3. Iqpcrt Price 1342 1650 1650 1i60

4. DCatic Cmau ficn 302 295 298 275

5. Ipxort otity 35 28 21 a

6. Damtic Prodctien Z 2a a 2b

. Wlfare Gairs (in billitasof zLoty) bf 82 16 33of chld:

8. RedzW Cauir Qksidies 11 23 46

9. Redad Causr Waus in Bute 3.2 6.4 13

10. Welfam Gairs as a Percemt of GDP .M .08 .116I....................... ............................ .

a/ Prices in thwsg of 198 zLoty, qsmities in thdws of cstric tas.

b4 RAw Ra 8 - Raw 9 with siht diffe ses de to mrdirg.

- 36 -

to,I

Stg X--. ........

0 5q tSid f l}

I SS -~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

- 37 -

TAULE 6

IW=CT OF EL t CININU FIE XS, lAM U SSIDIES AJND ItINIUPLLY &L T0rA WEDIS eaM IN THEE 111 WIlE U T1E $

Est1ntad blues

LW Cnrl* HighMi Data Elasticities Elticities Elasticities

... ....... ----- .... ---... ......... ... ... _..................

1. DwmsticCatrod Price 671 MA NA M

2. Dastict 9Wat IrLUsiwePrice bl 16 l60 100 100

3. luprt Price 1Y2 160 100 100

4. Damatic Cawuptien 302 295 2 275

5. port Qmtity 351 0

6. D0ostic Pradticn 229 27 25

T. wlItfre Gains (in billiemof zloty) cf 10 21 41of Ahich:

8. RudA Nd Caaur &hsidies al 29 47

9. RedAed Prier Wefdles 255 255 Z55

10. AdUitfaml PreSoms 9Sp*s 6.4 6.4 6.5

11. ReWed O Ca s uplr s en tter 271 27W D

12. WlItfr. Gains as a Par _ite of CDP .U3dl .03 .145X

13. Redstn in Gawermt Maidies dl(in bitlfas of zloty) 275 2 3t0

............................. ................................ ...

9/ Prifes in thxAws of Polish zloty, qmtitias in thamuw of ntric tas.

bl 9Skeibfd astizt. includesa musseadfitiewl smiuldias for 1S0.

c/ Raw 7 a Raw 8 + w 9 + Ra 10 - Ra 11 with ditffe cs to rdirg.

dl Icludes estimates of ifdirect sdsidies th e cowtraUly all It fomfg ucdu.

- 38 -

IL~~~~~~~~~~~~~~El

Wa it ,/I:

E~~ ~~ g: : *:::::::::

iI. _ '.. *'Sv'' L

a c§it l{ii

- 39 -

TABLE 7

nMLC OF ELIMINATING P RIM SBSIDIES IN TE PISH WMMR ET al

Estiusted VaLues

Los Cmtral High1"8 Data Etasticities Eltasticities Elasticities----- ...... ...... . . ---------- ................ .....

1. Daustic Catrotled Prioe 671 671 671 671

2. Damstic Jifc bnctnliw Price k w 6I 671 671

3. Inqort Price 1342 1342 ¶32 1342

4. Castic Cauuiptis 302 30 32 302

5. wt .ntity 35 113 1 27

6. Dastic Prodictien 267 1i1 110 32

7. Plfare Ls (in bitticsof zLoty) C/ -120 -240 -361of ,Jiich:

8. Redctien in Caumrs' S9pusw 53 1I5 158

9. Rsection in Sammt s9sidies dlin biltiar, of ztoty 150 45 -60

10. Reticn in Prodces 9.ptLw 218 18D 143

11. Wfare Gains as a Percentae of CDP A3 -.J5% -1.3X.. ......... ............... ..... ....... ..

a, Prices in thauands of Polish zltty, qmitities in thxuad of metric toem.

bl SAbsidy estiuee incluJs a d alitiaot saidies for 1989.

c1 lt 7 r -Rw 8 - Raw 10 + Raw 9. 0 to rordirU the sun f thecoigtfs ao nylot ecat the dhe.

dl Itctdhs estimntes of indirect sfitdies throvdi centratty atLocated foreign esdcrae.

- 40 -

Sa~~~~~~~~~~~~

S 0)~~~.. . . .. . .

Lo~¶1 I i . .. . .

- 41 -

TABE 8

IW1a OF ELIMUNATING PRICE MWMtLS PRMUIER SESIDIES AID (BITUALLYALL0CATW EIQM SOWIE IN THE PG.MI Wr l KllE T &1

Estfiaed Valus

aN Cetral Nig19g Data Elasticities Elsticities Elasticities

1. Dastic Catrolled Price 671 NA NP NA

2. DaTstic Sisidy Ir:uswie Price b/ 1627 26% 26B2684

3. Ioot Price 1342 2684 2684 2684

4. Daestic Ca nuptfan 302 271 241 181

5. oport Qmtity 35 . -199 -433

6. Daestic Przdltian 267 354 490 614

7. Welfare Gairs (in bitllirsof zloty) C/ 66 30 260of gAidc:

8. Ricntia in CaGmrsm 9aplw 560 540 500

9. Rdtian in G vwmnmwt Usidies dV

in biltias of zloty 3D 300 300

10. Ircreue in Prodcrs 9j*pst 330 370 470

11. Welfare Gains as a Percasw of MP .2O .469 .9

a/ Prices in thassm of Potish zloty, qctities in thxuaus of aetric tas.

b/ SLsid/ estinote irctules wiue aitiaul sbsidies for 198.

c/ R 7 a= Row 9 + Rcw 10 - Ra 8. O to ruseif ue wm of the

empaets does not e*sl the edLe.

dl IrclLus estimntes of friirect tksidies thro centrally allocato foreign ead e.

-42-

=X~~~~. ... ......... ,..,.....

J . .................

IL,S (.t 1g =41..... X. ...

- ii9 iOSy 0

43

REFEREES

Charemza, W., M. Gronicki and R. Quandt (1988), "Modelling Parallel Marketsin Centrally Planned Economies: The Case of the Automobile Nlarket in Poland,"Eurogean Economic Review, 32, 861-883.

Kornai, J. (1980), The Economics of Sho_tage, Amsterdam: North-Holland.

Neary, J.P. and K. Roberts (1980), "The Theory of Household Behavior UnderRationing," European Economic Review, 13, 25-42.

Shiells, C., R. Deardorff and R. Stern (1986), "Estimates of the Elasticitiesof Substitution Between Imports and Home Goods for the United States,"Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 497-519.

Podkaminer, Leon (1982), "Estimates of the Disequilibrium in Poland's ConsumerMarkets, 1965-1978", Review of Economics and Statistics, 64, 423-431.

Podkaminer, Leon (1988), "Disequilibrium in Poland's Consumer Markets: FurtherEvidence on Intermarket Spillovers", Journal of Comnarative Economics, 12,43-60.

- 44 -

STATISTICAL 4UPENDIX

Tdte 1.l ta P*if odDDvt t

IItLfasr d P1m (as of e*a

WMM MA Rl RnozrL9 XB2 Z3 3SA 2 Y 34.9 ?J.1 NA N 35 ZA?/567 B134 7 1.1 373 37 NA8 IF

PWe 6.9 I&O 16.1 W 16A ISA 1A 17JD 17.1 172 17b 17b 17.7 17.9 II 18&2 1U 11M 18.hzlMe 16B " 17.1 172 V7A VA 17.7 17.9 IL VL2 63 US ILI 1sD 19.1 193 19.4 IPA

utn 17.1 17b VA2 ILI ILs 19 1j5 aD0 M2 2DZ 21D0 2A 2.? 21.9 Z3 22 M 2Lo 32llkr tsA 155 SA 1S.4 S3 52 15D tU.9 t4. 147 S4.? Va.? 14.67 V#A 14-l VA K. 14.8 14A

efnl 5 YeBsib a7 as W3 a52 al &2 82 93 9A Ls a? a9 9.0 92 sb 9S 9.? 9.? .'t9R Yeam d AM IRA8 alf MA> 2L? 21. 213 2t A 21.9 2L1 2L2 Z3 22. 2.5 ZbS5 2.5 Z?6 2L6 VZ7 .? rWs d AP 4.2 4.3 45 4A 4.7 4.? 4.? 4.? 4A6 4.? 4.? 48 4.9 5.0 5.1 52 5.3 5A4 .

- DisUib k

43A 4L6 49A 48A 4s aW 4IL7 Wa & 4L6 Wu Wa 7 4U qAs 4U 4a 4L8 .- ~~~~Slb S1b SIA 5tIA 51.4 513 SIJ 513 St3 513 513 S13 St3 51.2 512 S12 512 S12 .

23 SU8 SLI 542 6S. 56A 5.7b% 5SA 58 2 MV 992 S95 S4.7 dU &2 S dX9 6SD0447.47U2 4.9 4SBA 452 4 43A 14A 46 4125 41. 40 41.1 4053 40.0 39.6 59 3.1 WD

S s Yof dt al5 Z5J.8 Z.1 AS a Z9 aA J 9 a0 aL MA 7A AS 32 25A DA 25.7 SA.Ya d Po S 6t. 61bA 61A QbL t62A e L &A W i2 6L1 61.7 61.2 6. OD 2 " ..Ya Vd lep GA0 tN2 t35 t7 t ILI UA SA t t32 132 1W SA tb t3B VM K 142 .

; tb 17~6A 2 17A Vl.9 SA4 SL9 t95 S9.1 t90 t95 t95 ta9 IPA t9.7 t8.9 t2 V.0 a s ttS>>~~~~~~ V al L78 3 Ut &I S 9.0 93 9.2 9.9 92 92 9X 9.9 U2 tLt SU9 9Aof "mum kIr 8.5 &5 9b 9. tO S0 t7 WS 9. S; 9, 9. S0 S0 9D W 6.9 7.6 5.7

Po - n: AS.T44

- 46 -

Tae t.2 Palo* E*oplt by stor

..........................................................................................................................................

10 176 19 Io0 1t1 ¶ I 1910 1a / 159 1W

. ............................................................................................ ...................................................................................................................................

Thaawb of Ponu 1 1(Tt Awqtl

tnt y 412.9 5S4.2 5765 5244.9 S87.2 493M.1 473.5 49.4 5000M 1 487.0 49D5. 4915.5

Wocatiz nlsty 401.6 478.5 4754.0 4741.2 4716.5 4411.0 440.6 44L6 435.7 47.0 426.6 4254.3

of witc:Food Pin1 ug 451.0 91.7 58 52.1 91.0 5A.2 55.9 53.2 50.6 47 .0 Q4.9 418.1

ElltwV i._1mr 1m.r 1619.9 163.9 168.1 155.6 14W.? 1451.5 143.? 1414.3 141*.0 1407.7 1390.9

Rut & pow 474.4 5181 53.0 56. S.2 519. 55.7 60.4 409.3 609.0 610.1 W67.8

Nutlw 2S9.1 29.9 260.7 259.5 251.9 Z21.6 W.6 n5.9 28L6 MG.0 2.8 217.3

Owin=t 21.0 32.9 Z5.4 7.4 W 5.2 30.4 30t.5 297.3 291.2 291.0 269.4 24.2

NinIsa 210.0 MJ.5 215. 21.4 217.t 84.1 29.9 215.9 83.5 25.0 23.5 225.0

Tatl.e & I*asr 7S6.5 84.1 34.5 796.4 .1 710.2 87.6 45.2 4.1 4.0 6.4 674.r

d Pde 218.8 2A. 269.5 268.9 82.1 1.5 2835 81.6 229.9 U9.0 22L8 224.6

MnWVg 451.6 414.8 491.1 499.7 50S.5 5L. 53.4 541.6 536 5430 555.3 559.6

co -twst1 101.9 13.1 132.0 133L6 124.1 122.5 1216.9 120.3 12.4 115.4 1316.5 133.6

1A4w 5a9.6 5018.8 5059.0 51U.1 5.9 5173.9 5013.0 4%.2 445L4 4A4 484.0 4260.3

boratty 1.5 159.8 156.1 155.0 152.9 .5 15.8 160.? 149 141.9 162.9 15.2

Tra dwt a Cadmatu 159.7 1100 1110.0 1119.3 11S.8 1061.4 106.O 107.8 10w.0 107.0 103.2 106

Tru 106.4 1.3 1299.7 1301.7 136.1 13165 13M.7 1325.0 133L. 1451. 1416.6 145.6

cawty SAm. 83. 372o 35.8 40.3 418.3 48.8 4V. 430.5 445.6 445.6 444.4 40.5

UmsIM a U *tu4st Oadty avlom 16. 13.1 1".2 3A0.4 2.3 30.7 MA.0 3 3VA.4 37.4 26.3 2Z.9

72.5 150.6 149.7 465 144.0 117.9 112.0 109.4 110.9 110.9 112.6 114.6

lijatt 15o m.1 75.3 A.4 7.6 S31.3 86.S sL. 91.3 90.3 911.6 917.0

Autal SIvles IL? 7 1.1 #.S #.7 3.1 #.2 5.3 5.? 90.2 90.2 9.3 92.2

UNW ot . se c Ia UslfOM 41.S 1dL.2 55.7 53.7 63.3 88.4 619.8 45.2 71. 716.7 17.5 m.6

Toi",I bormttm u 27.2 101.0 101.4 10.8 101.0 94.2 96.3 11.5 111.7 11.7 115.9 118.0

state datm"m A aitxta 21i0.7 53.6 229.1 22W.4 Z5.9 3.6 22.9 82.6 216.6 20D.6 275.5 29.6

-lu I 14.6 15 15A.6 157.1 15.3 152.4 153.6 159.2 62.2 12.2 158.4 142.1

OdUses 230.9 333 34 33.6 38.1 3062 37.5 312.1 3.3 32.3 311.0 36.9

TOa wp_ IM175.0 17?tO 7 1?29.0 1784.? 71119.9 A.6 1M5.6 19.0 17T1.7 110716.3 17236.5 17r4.6

...... ....... e .........................................................................................................................

QWS ; il "Ql tr C ' S { .

M Mt s"s otok 8

F~ 1.J

- 47 -

Table 2.1: Nacrec.ew.iS bntces(Percent of GDP)

........................................... ......................................................................................_.......................................

1980 1981 1982 198J 19if 1985 1986 1987 1988.................. .................................... _..... ,,,,....... _...........................

1. Foreign SavingsCurrent Account amence 1.9 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.51.1 Corwertibte Currency 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7 3.91.2 NorConwortible Currency 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 O.8 0.4 0.3 -0.4,

2. Private Sector2.1 Gross 0ta_mtic Investment 2.8 2.6 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.5

2.1.1 Fixed Investment 2.8 2.6 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.52.2 Change in Stocks iA MA NA NA MA MA MA2.3 Nations% savings 25.3 16.6 14.3 13.8 17.0 19.8 22.02.4 Investmnt-Savings -22.5 -14.1 -13.0 -12.8 -16.2 -19.1 -21.5

3. P"tlie Sector3.1 Gross Domstic Inwestmnt 25.6 17.2 26.8 24.0 25.5 27.0 28.2

3.1.1 Fixed Investwent 24.0 17.4 19.0 19.1 19.9 20.6 21.43.1.2 Change In Stocks 1.6 -0.2 7.8 4.9 5.6 6.5 6.7

3.2 NationaL Savings 1.3 1.1 12.2 9.? 7.9 6.S S.23.2.1 Current Revenues 54.2 49.4 24.5 19.7 15.9 13.0 10.53.2.2 Current Expenditures 52.9 48.3 24.0 19.2 15.5 12.7 10.33.2.3 Pubtic Enterprise Savings MA NA 11.6 9.3 7.s 6.2 S.0

3.3 Investment Savinps 24.4 16.1 14.7 14.2 17.6 20.6 22.9

4. Public and Private Investment Savings 1.9 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4

nemorandu. Ite:Share of Gross Domstic Investment

fInarced by Foreign Savings (2 6.6 10.0 5.8 S.6 5.4 S.4 5.0,.................. ...................................... ...........................................................................

Note: Atl cha in stocks esemd to be in the pubtic sector.SolrCo. Pish Autoties.

MACSAL: M1.J38

- 48 -

Table 2.2: Incentive Indicators

.............................. ............................................................. ...........................

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988.....................................................................................

Incentive Indicators

1. Reat Effective Exchange Rate1.1 Inuex (198S = 100.0) 112.5 100.0 77.7 54.2 50.51.2 Annual Change C) -2.5 -11.1 -22.3 -30,3 -6.7

2. Real Interest Rates2.' Short-term Deposit Rate -10.4 -10.7 -9.9 -12.1 -36.82.2 Long-term Lending Rate -7.9 -8.1 -10.0 -16.3 -36.4

3. Index of Real Wages3.1 Total, Economy (1980 = 100.0) 78.1 81.1 8.2 80.33.2 Industry (1978 a 100.0) 90.7 87.8 99.8

4. Ratios of Domeste Agricultural Prices to Border Prices (Official Exchange Rate)4.1 Wheat 1.09 1.434.2 Rye 1.67 1.84 1.40

External Trade Indicators

S. Volume Index of Major Exports to Non-Socialist Countries5.1 Fuel.s mnd Energy 14.1 -13.5 -13.2 0.15.2 I dustry 9.4 -5.6 8.2 10.85.3 Agricultural Products 35.4 29.2 16.5 4.9

6. Export Shares World Trade6.1 Food 0.51 0.60 0.67 0.736.2 NonFood Agriculture 0.62 0.66 0.54 0.516.3 Metals & Ninerals 1.51 1.67 1.60 1.S86.4 Ttwi. ;ottFuPl Putimare 0.73 0.83 0.9 .v.8 .

6.5 Fuets 1.06 1.10 1.53 1.396.6 Total, Primries 0.86 0.93 1.01 0.926.7 Machinery & Transport Equipment 0.86 0.83 0.63 0.546.8 Other Manufactures 0.51 0.S1 0.60 0.546.9 Total, Manufactures 0.68 0.67 0.62 0.546.10 Total, Merchandise 0.73 0.74 0.70 0.63

7. Manufactured Exports to NonSocialist Countries7.1 Reet Growth Rate -4.9 -17.8 12.5 0.87.2 Value as Share of Total Exports 50.6 49.1 52.1 48.0

8. Comodity Terms of Trade8.1 Index (1980 s 100.0) 93.5 9S.7 97.5 101.18.2 nnuat Change -1.4 2.4 1.9 3.7

... . ... .. ............ .... . ... ... ........ .. ... ... ... . ... .. . . ...... .......... .. . . .... .. .

= Not available.

POLKEY: A1f54

!af% 3.1 Poard 0aP bt S9aace in owrent Vaum(si!tioa of ZLotys)

~~~~~~~~. . ., ............. .... ... ... ... ...... ................. ............................ .... .... ........ ............ ... ... ... .. ............................ .............................................. ............... ... ... .

W97M M9r1 1W2 1973 1974 1975 97 1977 1978 1979 195D 1901 12 19b3 t984 IIS 191 137 1WI It I 11

Patel al Sectors .S 948.2 1019.9 1146.6 1317.3 1479.8 17V9.9 1891.0 2A81.4 2135.1 2158.4 2186.7 355.2 4931 S 4076.9 7417.9 8910.9 8BR.3 11114.8 14f1.8 249.of sAich:

Inistry 454.7 479.7 518.4 5W.5 729.s 808.6 017.0 9924 10I9.2 1126.9 1177.4 1135.1 1013.0 2461.6 301A.8 W3.3 433.1 421.4a 515.3 7tS4.5 1ZB1.1comtnctin 79.3 99.4 119.9 V10.7 149.6 161.9 211.5 215.0 247.3 23A.4 16.1 214.7 171.1 515.6 641.7 8M.7 15.2 156.4 136.4 115.6 342.6

aAtumre 131.1 159.7 15.2 197.6 202L2 207.1 ;52.9 18.0 31.T 3.2 3.6 332.3 649.1 814.4 102.8 1235.9 1401.9 1401.9 1.1 U9.6 Z4.1Toru rt & Cnicatiaw 67.7 760 8.0 95.2 113.4 117.0 144.7 13.1 161.1 U9.6 184.2 19.3 177.1 23.5 352.0 446 635.1 613.8 73.1 995.8 1461.9Tra* 75.6 97.0 10.8 9W 81.9 77.0 1h2.6 U.3 193.4 2Q8.2 207.0 34.0 30 .7 651.1 7M.3 *0.2 IW3.5 13.4 1.7 257.3 41tO1

et erSat Sfviaces 963 106.9 117.7 132A 140.2 12.3 20.3 227.3 24.5 24.4 302.0 324.5 3W.4 WS9.9 8S7.1 1158.0 145.3 1456.5 t8.2 2136. 4634.1

Satisyqn PWpa1tiaVs Nese 63.8 73.8 5.1 95A 93.7 113.4 1Y. 15.3 1S8.O 1I.6 192.3 218.8 274.4 424.9 59.1 813.2 10Si9 1031.6 129.i 1614.8 ...of tA1d:u.i*e 11.6 14.1 15.9 15.0 10.0 16A 19.1 22.0 25.0 3.S 31.8 54.3 59.9 90.1 111.1 17.W 260.S 240.5 356.6 407.4 ...Ed fIen 21.1 23.2 27.8 31.1 31.0 41.0 46.1 4.9 54.1 61.2 68.0 d4.6 I1.2 34.0 UB.1 ;6.2 23.0 3C.3 358.9 443.6 ...Oaflue & Art 4.0 4.2 4.6 S.0 S.4 5.8 6.5 7A 8.2 9.2 9.5 9.7 10.7 14.1 MA.6 33 37.4 3L0 43.3 60.1 ...iaWt & Soal IMfare 3.S 1S.0 16.S 2.2 22.9 24.6 19.7 32.0 34.2 40.7 46.4 46.8 63.1 107.3 1i3.9 m.7 207.2 211.3 230.7 3.4 ...

Sstsfylq Sodetyws Nm* 32.5 33.1 34.6 40.2 46.5 66.9 M.9 .0 90.5 I65.6 109.7 106.5 13.0 15.0 37.0 34.8 449.4 424.9 547A .2 -..

Totwl, W1bw- tk.djuta 9S.8 tO5.1 117.A 130.2 t457.5 t2,t1 1949.2 218.3 2119.9 24195 2fO.4 2511.2 2A.5546.4 40.0 a75.91G6.21 0ASA W .0169!9.92R .7

(Plu)

Dipraecatian of FindAsin ldptih Units 11.5 12.4 13.4 14.5 15.6 17.0 18.3 19.2 20.0 21.1 22.S

lapid at 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.6 7.6 8.7 9.4 10.0 10.5 1.2 12.4Dqicstihn of Nm4aoclalizedeidalnti. ilts 10.1 10.1 10.5 11.0 11.2 11.3 11.6 12.2 12.9 13.6 14.2

(less) 80*irg Servica 4.0 4.2 4.8 5.6 7.3 8.4 9.4 10.0 10.8 14.4 188

GOP at lrt brbet Prices 959.6 1079 7 1193.2 1327.7 484.6 149.7 "19.1 2149.7 Z22.S 2451.0 2490.7 211.2 2A6 5546.4 41.0 I75.911S67.2 10148.8 1295.0 1699.9 23rCAcordire to SO)

,, ,,. . ...................... ....................................... *.............. ....................... ..... ........ ................................. ........................................

Soxrce: QS.

Pol0P1: A1.V43

- 50 -

Table 3,2 Polasd: CDP by Expedltuws In Current Values(81i1t1ns of 2lotys)

...................................................................................................................

1980 1981 1982 1983 198 1985 a/ 1986 a/ 1987 1988t 11 I tl

...................................................................................................................

Gross Domestic ProXt 2511.2 2752.6 5546.4 6924.0 8575.9 10367.2 10144.9 129M5.9 12953.0 16939.9 29628.7

Resource Gap ( * N) -73.5 -58.1 116.0 122.2 169.3 147.9 147.9 221.0 183.7 407.1 810.8Exports (O+nfs) 70.8 638.4 1077.8 1192.4 1SS.6 1900.6 1900.6 2356.5 2357.5 3625.2 6744.5tlworts (genfi) 780.3 696.S 961.8 1070.2 1346.3 1752.7 1752.7 2135.S 2173.8 3218.1 5933.7

lotal Expenditure 2572.0 2809.4 5481.8 6830.5 8485.8 1308.1 10287.4 12791.7 12835.0 16557.3 29001.6

Consumption 1910.3 2301.3 3931.2 5096.6 6M28.8 7419.9 739.2 9089.6 9094.9 11673.8 19344.3General Governuent 230.8 260.3 454.S 609.7 801.2 1022.9 9t6.1 .. 1178.1 1516.4 2428.5Private 1679.5 2041.0 3476.7 4486.9 5427.6 6397.0 6413.1 .. 7916.8 10157.4 16915.8

Investments 661.7 508.1 1550.6 1733.9 2257.0 28.2 288.2 3702.1 3740.1 4883.5 9657.3Fixed Instments 621.2 513.9 1117.4 1394.5 1780.9 2210.7 2210.7 2832.9 2835.5 3821.0 6663.1Changes In Stocks 40.5 -5.8 433.2 339.4 476.1 677.5 677.5 869.2 904.6 1062.5 2994.2

Unalocated 1t 12.7 1.3 -51.4 -28.7 -79.2 -88.8 9.6 -86.8 -65.7 -24.5 -183.?

Domestic Savings 600.9 451.3 1615.2 1827.4 2347.1 2947.3 3045.r 3836.3 3858.1 5266.1 10284.4Net Factor Incom b/ -104.0 -131.0 *164.0 -184.0 -149.0 .. *173.0 .. 189.0 -218.0 VACurrent Trasfers b/ 16.1 31.7 78.8 99.6 131.9 .. 103.3 .. 231.9 373.0 617.0

Natial Savings b/ 513.0 352.0 1530.0 1743.0 2330.0 .. 2976.0 .. 3901.0 5421.1 NA

Percent of GDP

Gross Domtic Pri at 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Resoure Cap (X - N) *2.9 *2.1 2.1 1.8 2.0 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.4 2.4 2.7Exports (genfs) 28.1 23.2 19.4 17.2 17.7 18.3 18.2 18.2 18.2 21.4 22.8leports (gVnfs) 31.1 25.3 17.3 1S.S 15.? 16.9 16.8 16.S 16.8 19.0 20.0

Total Expenditure 102.4 102.1 98.8 98.6 98.9 99.4 98.5 99.0 99.1 97.7 97.9

Consurpti4n 76.1 83.6 70.9 73.6 72.6 71.6 70.8 70.3 70.2 68.9 65.3Gr 'eal Gverrment 9.2 9.5 8.2 8.8 9.3 9.9 9.4 .. 9.1 9.0 8.2Private 66.9 74.1 62.7 64.8 63.3 61.7 61.4 .. 61.1 60.0 57.1

Investmnwts 26.3 18.S 27.9 25.0 26.3 27.8 27.7 28.6 28.9 28.8 32.6Fixed Investments 24.7 18.7 20.1 20.1 20.8 21.3 21.2 21.9 21.9 22.6 22.5Changes in Stocts 1.6 -0.2 7.8 4.9 5.6 6.5 6.5 6.7 7.0 6.3 10.1

Unalltocted It.. 0.5 0.0 -0.9 -0.4 -0.9 -0.8 0.1 -0.7 -0.5 -0.1 -0.6

Domstic Saving 23.9 16.4 29.1 26.4 27.4 28.4 29.2 29.7 29.8 31.1 34.7Net Factor Inem bf -4.1 -4.8 *3.0 -2.7 -1.7 .. 1.? .. -1.5 -1.3 NACurrent Tramfers b/ 0.6 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 .. 1.0 .. 1.8 2.2 2.1

Natioml Savings bi 20.4 12.8 27.6 25.2 27.2 .. 28.5 .. 30.1 32.0 NA

at I and 11 indicate a cdwae in methodology.b/ Estimetes from the international Economics Deprtment SocfoEconfoic Data Division of the Bank.c/ Inclided in resource gap.Source: amS.

PoMGMP3: A1.L62

- 51 -

Table 3.3 Polwrd: W9 by Efrdeiture in Constant Values(ilions of Cmtant Zlotys)

1Q80 1981 1982 193 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988I it

........................................................ ........................................................................................

. 1982 Zlotys.1984 Zlotys .......

Gross Oametic Product 6267.8 5642.6 5373.9 5672.5 5992.9 6210.5 9017.5 9398.2 9 .. 4 9975.3Terms of Trade Effect 12.2 3.2 0.0 -42.4 -62.3 -28.7 41.9 62.0 125.4Gross Oiwestic Incoaw 6280.0 5645.8 5373.9 5630.1 5930.6 6181.8 9059.4 9460.2 9707.8

Resource Gap (X - I) -142.5 -95.9 116.0 158.6 202.4 129.2 79.7 66.3 75.5 88.9Exports (gVnts) 1241.1 1014.8 1077.8 1176.6 1316.3 1319.6 1520.3 1584.3 1663.4 1819.8Inports (94nfs) 1383.6 1110.7 961.8 1018.0 1113.9 1190.4 1440.6 1518.0 1587.9 1730.8CCapacity to Inportl 1253.3 1018.0 1077.8 1134.2 1254.0 1290.9 1562.2 1646.3 1788.8 1967.3

Total Expenditure 6386.8 5831.6 52.0.4 5566.0 5847.0 6076.3 8883.9 9251.5 9413.3 9799.2

consumption 4672.4 4498.6 4003.1 4209.1 4403.9 4544.4 6542.9 6805.1 6964.7 7143.1General Goverr ent 471.0 449.6 460.5 474.8 510.6 550.4 849.9 850.3 859.0 860.3Private 4201.4 4049.0 3542.6 373.3 3893.3 3994.0 5693.0 5954.8 6105.7 6282.8

Investments 1714.4 1333.0 1287.3 1356.9 1443.1 1531.9 2341.0 2446.4 2448.6 2658.1Fixed Invest¢ents 1606.2 1300.0 1122.3 1220.9 1340.8 1399.3 1872.2 1956.6 2036.5 2160.7Changes in Stocks 108.2 33.0 165.0 136.0 102.3 132.6 468.8 489.8 412.1 497.4

utnallocated Itmes 23.5 -93.1 -32.5 -52.1 -56.S 5.0 53.9 80.4 93.6 93.6

Domestic Sav;.; s 1607.6 1147.2 1370.8 1421.0 1526.7 1637.4 2516.5 2655.1 2743.1 2832.2Net Factor Incoms a/ -259.6 -268.5 -158.9 -150.7 -104.1 -102.9 -149.4 -137.1 -123.3Current Transfers af 40.2 65.0 76.3 81.6 92.2 61.4 89.2 168.3 211.0 207.5

mational Savings (Residaul) 1388.2 943.7 1288.2 1351.9 1514.7 1595.9 2456.3 2686.2 2830.8

Growth Rates (M)

Gross Doanestic Product -10.0 -4.8 5.6 5.6 3.6 4.2 2.0 4.1Gross Danestic Incaie -10.1 -4.8 4.8 S.3 4.2 4.4 2.6

Resource Gap (X - N) -32.7 -221.0 36.7 27.6 -36.2 -16.8 13.9 17.8Exports (g.nfs) -18.2 6.2 9.2 11.9 0.3 4.2 5.0 9.4irorts (g.nfs) -19.7 -13.4 5.8 9.4 6.9 5.4 4.6 9.0(Capacity to [aportl -18.8 5.9 5.2 10.6 2.9 5.4 8.7 10.0

Total Expenditure .8.7 -9.3 5.2 5.0 3.9 4.1 1.7 4.1

Consunption -3.7 -11.0 5.1 4.6 3.2 4.0 2.3 2.6General Goverrunt -4.5 2.4 3.1 7.5 7.8 0.0 1.0 0.1Private -3.6 -12.5 5.4 4.3 2.6 4.6 2.5 2.9

Investments -22.2 -3.4 5.4 6.4 6.2 4.5 0.1 8.6fixed Investments -19.1 -13.7 8.8 9.8 4.4 4.5 4.1 6.1Changes In Stocks -69.5 400.0 -17.6 -24.8 29.6 4.5 -15.9 20.7

Domestic Savings -28.6 19.5 3.7 7.4 7.2 5.5 3.3 3.3Net Factor tncome at 3.5 -40.8 -5.1 *30.9 -1.2 -8.2 -10.1Current Transfers ae 61.7 17.5 6.9 13.0 -33.4 88.7 25.4 -1.7

Nationat Savings (Residal) -32.0 36.5 4.9 12.0 5.4 9.4. .....................................................................................................

............................................ ................

a/ Estimates fram the International Econarics Department Socio-EconAe Data Division of the fank deflated by theInplicit GDP deflator.

bJ Incltuded in resource gap.Source: GUS.

PotGDP4: A1.K65

- 52 -

Tabte 4.1 Poland: laltnce of Paysmnts - TotalCUSS Millons)

...........................................................................................................

1979 1960 ¶961 1982 1982 1983 1984 198S 1986 196? 1988..................................... .........................................................................

Exports (fob) 13354 14170 10464 10457 104S? 11000 11800 10912 11SSS 11602 13211Itports (fob) 1576 15806 1256 10654 10654 10582 10962 10436 10914 1a083 1206

Trede Blane 2410 -1636 -2100 -197 -197 418 838 476 644 79 1147

Freight S Insurence, Net 54 64 288 332 332 271 89 8S 88 *26 -23Credit 852 904 693 629 629 m 581 563 580 531 S45Oebit 798 840 405 297 297 501 492 478 492 ss5 568

Travel, Met *30 16 -101 -65 -65 -111 -123 -61 -4S -8 -16Credit 249 269 105 68 68 81 98 113 131 193 233Debit 279 253 206 133 133 192 221 174 176 201 249

Interest. Net -1667 -2357 -3060 -2963 -2963 -2592 -3021 -2383 -2663 -2915 -2955Credit 71 139 171 92 92 184 195 176 16u 217 271Debit (before debt relief) 2/ 1738 2496 3231 305S 3055 2776 3216 2559 265l 3132 3226

Other Current Items, Net 28 43 8S 43 43 76 68 140 82 159 111Credit 294 312 290 287 287 325 3S6 418 461 538 S87Debit 322 3SS 205 24 24 249 266 278 379 379 476

Total Services *1671 -2320 -278 -2653 -2653 -2356 -2967 -2219 -258 -270 -28Credit 1466 1624 1259 1076 1076 1362 1230 1270 1360 1479 1636Oebit 3137 3944 4047 372 379 3718 4197 3489 389 4269 4519

Unrequited Transfers, Net 530 656 655 323 323 380 467 766 946 1413 1434Private 527 526 331 323 323 380 467 768 946 1413 1434Official 3 130 324

ORE ACCOUNT tALANCE -3551 -3300 -4233 -2527 -2527 -1SS8 -1662 -975 -948 -S78 -302

MEDIUM- & LONG-TERN CAPITAL 3643 2659 96 -2371 -2371 -962 -10? 84 -16S2

Actusl Loan Orainp 8535 8840 5517 258S 258S 1011 627 723 1112Repayents (befor relief) 3/ 4783 5971 59S 70 7088 4165 3530 4183 4089Repaymmnts (Refinancing) 4/ 1778 2050 2050 2208 2938 3521 15S30Principat 1369 2050 2050 2208 2471 2797 13 ..Intest 409 467 724 87 . ..

Other Capitat, Not -10 -45 8 84 100 -10 -56 41 6

Export Credits. Net -99 -16S -420 -S -21 -26 -84 -18 -211 .. .

REWOLVING CREDITS, NET 196 196 338 240 -2 139 106 30

SHORT-TERO CAP, ERR5 RS 69 239 -172 478 478 295 191 540 -421

OMER-ALL PLIMCE 161 -402 -3507 -4224 -4224 -1907 -1338 -353 -2862 . ..

COUTERPART ITENS, VALtAT IONCHANGES 1N RESERVES 99 235

T 0 T A L 161 -402 -3507 -4224 -4224 -1907 -1338 -353 -2862

CHANGES IN RESERMS t-, INC) -161 402 -35 -369 -369 -119 -340 236 173 -797 -561

CHANGE IN RREARS 4/ 3542 4593 593 2026 1678 117 2709Interest 2/ 5o 1100 1100 1100 1400 -SO .. ..Principat 3042 3493 3493 926 278 167 . ..

...........................................................................................................

1/ Current nd capital account transction within swing limits tmder bilateral pantsagrants with mrket econmy cowtries have ben excluded for the years fter thebrk year 1982; these tronsactions re included in the blance of paments innonconvertible currenies. Secondly the current account presentation bove Includes*ll accrued interest peynt obligation.

2/ Estimtes of aipad interest are very tentative as agre_mt has not been reachedwith a mer of creditors on estimtes of penalty interest on pyeent arrers.

3/ Inctude uapid principal repayment obligatiors.4/ In 1981-84, agremnts for rescheduline the bulk of the artl principal obligatios

are treted as arrea until the effective operational date of the agremnt,tAich for rechesdlings with Western banks was in the year subseuent to the signingof the soreenent.

Ouree: lationtl ank of Poland.

PoISOPI: A.1L84

- 53 -

Tame 42 Po(tw: bta' of PIAw

MMn 1W2 M3 tw 19 ft W? MURUIWMte 'vw w W~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~. .. ...... ......... ... . .. . ........ _._- ......... _._ .....--. _. _0~~~~~11 19?? 192193191 73 11 97^ 191 191 ¶9 lEt191111318 t 193 1W 11d) ( 131 1VAN 17 319 3111 47 43 51 71 40 9 561 49 40 4t 5t 5 531 66 71 (fd* I 13 31 M 19 4W 131 718 W9 a%9 WS NV 6M 161 43413751 406 415 411 513 4W

Tl*r U h 15 .3 .4 ISIS -MM -a 20 am -2193 -Ae -75 350 75 '9 Ila 1140 10 tO4 9P2F?stt & k,uau=lM 43 4t 53 61 61 79 31 -19 -41 157 142 3 3 32 -M -t50 131 -1 -171 t9DOHt 152 161 I a# 312 3 41 44 41 5 6 30 212 15 M 1 2Z 271 39 347Dot taO l B t91t 39 1 31316 454 5117 7 M m 2 at 3 41 412 3 390 4 497Tra*, Mt 10 13 1 V 30 47 51 53 7r 9B 6 40 36 36 45 56 55 9 So S8t U 131 a44 5 71 77 1 6 14s so5 5 59 191o as 1 11 45Dot X Z n 3 4 1 17 a a as M 21 31 46 32 3 a A1 3 31 V 48 47

am, Not -42 -3 -34 -3 -as1 43 41 - -113 -1w . -mu - -a -DS * -UZS -2w -MS -zodt 9 14 1r 8 U 3Y 3 34 1 6 US W 5 5 19 t 1 8 t77 1W Z?OWt fu Sit 2.1 f 1 47 51 96 a 3% 51 90 1W 1 2171 30 39 29 39 311 2 2 S 312 WOw Ow weB. t -A -3 -- 24 -4 56 4 -9 -1 9-1 1 6- 1 10 tt 1 3 413 2 0 4-O*lt ZS a a S4 a tlo la w la 15 s t tw in m Z Zs asOdAt t5a 031go5is 131a61 377513 2 a m I 141 1401616lo2 170 1Tout So 3 -6 810 -I -2 -" -618 A4 *121 - -3t75 -WM -zM -ui *U -3 -19 *M -M -2FEa.dt 197 27 30 us am d 6104 73 96 13 8a1 Pr so 713 17 75 77 911 godAzt tm ZR 210 46 35 I 1 13 1g 153* US 3 351 WY7 15 US 3417 31M 3MYUrqdt Trsuf.. t 3 78 1 1S 11 Wa SO1 4W 56 SY 45 318 318 N3 4a M1 14 40 U3PHm Q 3 wI ag = 216 32 313 453 SS 3 31 8 318 3S 493 %4 UM 1Offdfcf-? -7 7 -6- - 0 19 13 211 3 1V 35

03W rW AU 13 119 -11 -5 -219 -31 -3 -36W -2 -34 -2612 -U -2116 -2148 -IM -1175 -3 -a 417 -4711DilF W1 WLE 42 aI ' 156 1W 14i8 3am 31 1 3112 U 43 -35 -21 - - -19 1AMA Lan aDoa 18M 3 46 1W VA6 S 45 41S S1W 9 W 209 214 13 56 2 1 7 817 SIII fto s.WS1 0 30 31 ' 61 IV 131 3115 4W4 5O SR1 5011 591 5312 3115 315 346

Ww2g 4W 4r75 w ui ~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~400 4w ?a a

oUieItd. Not -11 -1 -7 4 -9 -12 -16 7 -15 1 -1 -1 2 2 1 -5 2 -18&PM o_, I Ng -4 4 - 46 -118 -10 -W -1 4 -16 43 -5 -21 -5 4 -18 -2111;cII mli,ul 15 196 338 31 -2 13 106 3U

90t-iu o, -57 -1 6 4 21 571 75 ff 1W 3 -191 -0 -1017 1P 1 -2 -356 41

OU A 36IU 53 D -18 49 13013 -371 145 161 -40 .39 .M IW -=1 -313 -2

ominm 131l -14 1111=NO _0s er t w

TOTAL 36 V 32 -S 49 IN 16 -3 1A 161 -4 -3W -1 -IW -1I5 -IO -Nim n-o DC -36 -23 -3 18 -49 -1 -15 11 -15 -161 412 -3 -38 -30 -119 -310 36 17 -77 561

Om to _4/ 3N V 41 55 31 W 11WS I* 2 _ 351 11m 11 1 0 U -50 150fr 39312339 3 1 218 2 17 13

MMam Mim b* of Mm.L11wwt Wo w1minat aumles uhoe b adr uId fo to Lt ~u

bik W 1M two Uw lastf an ftiga fn ft bLeu of I pIA it nmmtft* agwVwf6 INwiy ft ouiwe amit puutatl dme fmIimu - bwt~ lIR uu..

uidt a mui of aedfu rn ogko of psutty (ion t m pt am"*.Vin 1314. Iem b Mimitbft dwMkof * nm al1t.lp1 ftipmfmwe - wwms uaIlft afitMw qitfast d of ft w%atMd far *ad ubmiUd Wmw tuf w bt ft VWabat to Sir"5of tUrn wie.

MtM't A1A65

- 54 -Table 4.3 Potand: Sslane of Payments

Non-Corwertible Currency(USS Millions)

.......... .................. .. ..... ...... . ... ....... ........... .. ..... .... .......................... ... .... ............................................

1979 1980 1981 1982 I 1982 1963 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988__. ... . .................................................................................... ...... ........... ........ . ..... .

Exports (fob) 6780 6205 4982 5483 sm 6020 6329 5565 6242 5439 5963Inports (fob) 6998 7049 6331 6038 6292 6641 6854 6251 663 5680 5757

Trade Balance -218 -844 -1349 -555 -520 -621 -525 -6e6 -391 -241 206

Freight & Insurance, Net 211 206 260 294 300 309 239 210 212 145 127Credit 271 274 323 357 373 384 319 293 305 232 198Debit 60 68 63 63 73 75 sO 83 93 87 71

Travelt Not -123 -82 -164 *101 -101 -1S6 -179 -116 -104 -98 -114Credit 125 125 10 9 9 12 17 27 35 55 88Debit 248 207 174 110 1t0 168 196 143 139 1S3 202

Interests, met -30 -22 -48 -87 -89 -58 -92 -113 -106 -100 -100Credit 2 3 2 6 7 31 12 8 11 20 34Oebit 32 25 SO 93 96 89 104 121 117 120 134

Others, Net 77 51 35 33 26 S3 63 99 104 129 158Credit 142 132 110 127 129 162 165 216 236 258 353Debit 65 81 75 94 103 109 102 117 132 129 195

Total - Services, Met 135 153 83 139 136 148 31 80 106 76 71Credit 540 S34 445 499 S18 589 S13 544 587 S65 673Debit 405 381 362 360 382 441 482 464 41 489 602

iinrequited Trsasfers, et 1 3 1 5 5 5 5 4 2 * 1

CLWuEMT ACCOUNT BALAUCE -82 -688 -126S -411 -379 -468 -489 -602 -283 -161 278

MEDIUN- R LONG-TERN CAPITAL .178 -22S 420 22 38 -89 -68 103 176 7T -258

Credits Received -161 -195 413 -63 -63 -77 -8 63 187 31 -260Drawings 177 171 587 1114 1114 446 409 462 818 342 82Repayments 338 366 174 1177 1177 523 417 399 631 311 342

Credits Extended -27 -35 -7 74 90 -2S -74 2 -22 44 -8Repqarynts 22 13 10 82 142 60 56 31 59 61 4Drawins 49 48 17 8 S2 85 130 4 81 17 S2

Other CapitalU Net 10 5 14 11 11 13 14 13 11 2 10

SHORT-TER CAPITAL, NET 229 923 859 371 303 485 542 453 129 103 147

Credfts Received 221 803 1044 561 561 148 633 396 284 -6 165

Credits Extended 6 9

Payments Agreem AsstS * Liab 8 120 -185 -190 -258 337 -91 5T 155 103 -47

FINUACIAL ITEMS, NET 31 -10 -14 18 38 72 15 46 -22 -19 -167

T O T A L 0 0 0 a 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

oe..... _.............................................................................

Source: National Sank of Poland.

1. There is a break In the series in 1982; data to the right of the lIne ncludetraneactins within ewing Limits under bilateral payments agreements with,arket ecvOmy cointries togpther with related capital accot t transactions;to the left of the line, such transactions are exctuded.

2. Thfs table differs from the national presentation of the balence of payments innoncornvertible currenmies In two respects: (1) In the national presentation alldata through 1981 were ciwemrted from tranfereble rubles into US5 using crssrates derived from the accxemtingt rates of the ztoty vis-a-vis the trans-ferable ruble ard US$ (which corresponds closely with the US$/ruble rate quotedby the Interntationat Bak for Economic Cooperation). In this presentationdata were converted usin cross rates derived from the comerciat' ratesof the tloty vis-a-vis the transferable ruble and the U#. Since the chanein exchange regimes in 1982, the national presentation has converted thedata at the cross cemercal' rate In 1981 the cross 'accounting' rate wasTR I a US# 1.32; the cross 'cmemrcialt rate in contrast was TR 1 * USS 0.87.(2) For the years 1962 to 1984, this presentation includes tranestieons withinswing limits under bilateral payments agreements with 'mrket econow' counitriesawd related caspital accosunt transetions. In the national presentation, theyare included in the batance of payments in convertible currencies.

PotBOP3: A1I.86

- 55 -

Tab b 4.4 Polaid: Exports By SITC Cne-Digit Category(Millions of US#)

............................ ......................................................... *....... .............. ...... .......... ............ ................

1975 1960 1093 196 19 1966 198" 1988...... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ......................................... ..... ..... . .... .....

O Food ard Live Anlumts 807.7 1035.5 m7. 851.7 852.8 968.8 1213.8 1309.21 Severages & Tscto 66.7 101.4 69.2 72.6 76.2 80.7 62.4 72.42 Crude Nateriats. Inedibte Except Fuels 352.8 856.0 679.3 767.3 822.1 789.2 743.1 82.93 mineral Fuels, Liurients 8 Related Materials 1863.0 2409.7 2012.2 2059.8 1801.2 1594.3 1373.6 1429.14 Animal & Veetable Oils & Fate 36.1 5.5 3.6 29.4 25.4 18.8 22.5 14.65 Chemicals 784.2 933.4 641.6 713.2 7C5.1 776.7 873.9 1113.06 nuufactured Goods Ctasif fed Chiefly by Material 1241.2 2601.5 1867.6 1852.0 1720.3 2111.0 2234.1 2694.67 Machinery aid Trauport Eqjipumnt 2244.7 4715.0 4816.S 4542.4 4530.1 4693.1 4096.3 4648.78 Miscellamaus nbifactured Articles 990.0 1510.3 686.2 728.9 t7B.6 870.6 960.7 1122.99 Coumdities & Transaetions Not Clasif ied According to Kind 15.5 23.1 17.8 152.5 167.6 170.5 624.5 63.0

T 0 T A L I X P 0 R T S 8401.9 14191.4 11571.8 11749.8 11489.4 12073.7 12206.9 13960.4

O Food and Live Animeis 274.8 183.4 158.9 161.8 164.2 180.2 187.9 185.31 severage T^op 33.6 47.9 40.0 35.2 37.7 33.? 15.3 18.12 Cruxde aterials, Inedible Except Fuels 73.9 224.0 216.3 191.8 25.8 198.4 119.0 177.43 Mineral Fuels, Lubricants & Related Moterials 652.9 778.1 835.7 810.6 65.6 594.3 463.4 551.54 AnInl & VegettAe Cts & Fats 1.3 0.9 0.0 5.9 11.6 2.15 Otaefals 433.7 594.9 416.8 448.1 419.3 451.2 440.0 494.76 M.tsfactured GoodB Clasif fed Chiefly by Material 636.5 788.4 749.5 732.0 768.9 876.4 800.4 735.87 Machinery ad Transport Epipoemt 1444.1 3037.8 3479.3 3401.9 3590.5 3652.6 3083.8 3480.78 Miscellaneous MNdfactured Articles 72.6 1022.6 423.1 390.6 416.1 413.5 393.0 460.59 Coonodities & Tranoteitc Not Cassif fed Acording to Kind 0.5 17.8 15.7 65.2 79.9 104.4 3S6.3 391.3

T 0 T A L -S O C I A L I S T E X P O R T S 4278.9 6695.8 6335.3 6243.1 6299.6 6506.8 5919.1 6495.3

0 Food ad Live AnImals 532.9 852.1 618.6 469.9 698.6 788.6 1025.9 1123.91 BSvwrages 8 Toaco 33.1 53.5 29.2 37.4 38.5 47.0 47.1 54.32 Crude Materials. Inudible Except Fuels 278.9 632.0 463.0 S75.5 616.3 590.8 564.1 695.53 Mineral Fuels, LLbrimts & Related Mattrists 1210.1 1631.6 1176.S 1249.2 1195.6 1000.0 910.2 87.64 AninL 8 Vagetbh 011$8 rFat 34.8 4.6 3.6 23.5 13.8 16.7 20.4 14.65 Chauicals 350.5 338.5 224.8 266.1 a85.8 325.5 435.9 618.36 Mnufactured Good Ctaif led uliefLy by Material 604.7 1813.1 1118.1 1100.0 951.4 1234.6 1433.7 1958.87 MachInery ard Tranort quiapm.t 800.6 1677.2 137.5 1140.5 939.6 1040.5 1012.5 1168.08 Miscetltsis Manufactured Artictes 262.4 487.7 263.1 38.3 362.5 457.1 567.7 662.49 Cannodities & Trasatifm NM Ctassified According to Kind 15.0 5.3 2.1 87.3 87.7 66.1 266.2 291.7

T 0 T A L - I O I S O C I A L I S T E X P 0 R T S 4123.0 7495.6 5236.5 5S06.7 5189.8 5566.9 62B5.7 7465.1

NMsnranrLm Items:

4on-*C wtibtOwroy Are 3769.8 6217.3 S682.0 S411.0 5W.O 5450.0 4883.0 5523.0

Conwertible Currmcy Area 4632.1 7974.1 5889.8 6338.8 6152.4 6622.0 7323.9 8437.4............. .......................... ......................................................... .............................................................................

12m: wtionul SW* of Poland.

EXPSITC: A1.154

- 56 -

Tae 4.5 Polad: InpWts (CIF) By SITC Ow-Oigit Category(Mi It is of La)

...... ....... ............................. ..................................................... ................. 0......

1975 191? 1991 192 1Z 194 '95 1986 19697 ige

................................................................................................................................................

Q Food and Live Aninols 1213.6 2681.7 2W8.9 1S09.0 949.4 1109.4 991.1 1065.0 1125.8 1441.2

1 8e$erages & T 68.3 163.5 139.2 96.6 110.9 91.3 102.0 134.5 133.4 146.4

2 Cn.de MateriaLs, Zrndible Except Fuels 1524.1 1742.2 1182.9 1256.7 1132.7 1175.1 1148.8 924.6 1064.7 1229.9

3 Mineral Fuels, Lubricants & Related Materiats 1169.4 3112.6 2379.4 2256.8 2M.6 2419.0 2416.9 2330.3 1380.9 1833..

4 Animal & Vegetable Oils & Fats 97.5 133.8 103.1 97.4 19.9 87.6 93.1 65.1 63.8 87.3

5 Chemicals 942.4 1546.3 1136.8 991.5 948.1 935.3 9s0.0 1091.9 1260.7 1430.8

6 Mrafactured Good Classified Chiefly by Material 2154.2 2244.8 1U5.2 1359.9 1530.2 1520.1 1510.5 1540.0 1481.1 170.2

7 Machinrry ad Trarprt Ejipwt 3483.9 4227.0 27e6.3 21.7 2695.0 2974.0 3336.4 3649.8 3529.8 4020.7

8 Miscellareous leiaactured Articles 452.0 808.0 601.? 548.2 701.0 581.6 568.2 191.8 636.5 809.9

9 Caomodities & Transactia'Not Classified Accrditn to Kird 0.5 27.9 16.3 10.5 14.8 31.8 37.7 32.5 37.8 5.1

T 3 T A L I N P 0 R T S 11105.9 16689.8 1255.8 10648.3 1026.6 10M.2 11184.7 11535.5 11214.5 12711.9

0 Fod ad Live Anitmls 320.2 341.9 38.2 360.3 312.9 370.7 253.1 272.0 233.5 115.7

1 Weverages & Tdaao 38.1 100.2 93.8 67.5 77.8 59.4 63.5 77.4 74.2 70.2

2 crun materials. Inedible Excpt Fuels 568.0 565.9 434.7 575.8 476.6 450.0 444.3 442.3 373.6 362.2

3 Mineral Fuels, Lricants & Retated Materials 808.2 2058.5 2078.9 2052.4 227.3 2156.4 2065.8 2102.0 1652.8 1478.2

4 Anitaml & Vegetable Oils & Fats 13.6 14.0 5.7 16.5 15.5 9.6 13.4 8.6 5.6 7.3

5 ChOnicaLs 339.1 S16.4 557.2 372.4 344.7 310.7 310.8 347.2 350.7 341.8

6 ufaetu'te fi Classified Chiefly by Material 538.8 900.7 802.1 812.9 826.2 821.4 756.5 833.0 709.5 731.2

7 Mahirary ad Trarport Eq4ipiAt 1063.5 2501.6 1821.6 1907.8 203.8 2182.2 2331.3 2362.4 2097.3 2273.8

8 Miscellanws Muarfactured Articles 261.3 538.4 446.1 3$9.1 517.1 406.S 363.3 449.0 337.4 415.1

9 Comwdities & TramactiawNot Classified According to KinCd 0.4 16.4 16.2 10.3 14.5 30.7 30.4 27.6 30.9 1.2

T 0 T A L - S O C I A L I S T I M P O R T 3951.2 7554.0 669.5 6575.0 6886.4 6197.6 6672.4 6921.5 5865.5 5856.7

O Food ad Live Aniamls 893.4 2339.8 2485.7 1148.7 636.5 738.7 738.0 193.0 892.3 1265.5

Beveras & Tb 30.2 63.3 45.4 29.1 33.1 31.9 38.5 57.1 59.2 76.2

2 Cnrde ateriaLs, Inedible Excpt Fkels 956.1 1176.3 748.2 690.9 656.1 73.1 ?C4.5 482.3 691.1 867.7

3 Mineral Fuets, LLbricants & Related MaterieLs 361.2 1054.1 300.5 204.4 516.3 322.6 351.1 228.3 228.1 355.2

, Aninie S Vegetable Oils & Fats 83.9 121.8 97.4 80.9 55.4 78.0 79.7 56.5 58.2 80.0

5 Chenicals 603.3 1029.9 579.6 619.1 603.4 624.6 669.2 744.7 910.0 1089.0

5 maufatured Goods Classified Chiefly by Material 1615.4 1344.1 503.1 547.0 194.0 698.7 714.0 707.0 77.6 976.0

- Machirery and Tramport Eqaipmt 2420.4 17Z5.4 993.7 613.9 651.2 791.8 1005.1 1287.4 1432.5 1746.9

F Miscellanes MArufactured Articles 190.7 269.6 155.6 149.1 183.9 175.1 204.9 252.8 299.1 394.8

Cmmdities & TrwasctirmNot Classified Acoordirw to Kird 0.1 11.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.t 7.3 4.9 6.9 3.9

T 0 T A L - M O N S O C I A L I S T I M P 7154.7 9135.8 5959.3 4073.3 4040.2 4187.6 4512.3 4614.0 5349.0 6855.2

'llrard.n Ites:

Na,Cenvertible array Ares 3582.4 1041.8 30.4 6003.0 6209.0 5888.0 5797.0 5759.0 4928.0 4955.0

Cawertible CLrrwey Area 1523.5 968.0 6248.4 4645.3 4717.6 5097.2 5387.7 5776.0 6286.5 7756.9

S ..r.. ...................i..................................................I..........of.....................................................

seucq: Natiwal Sgk of Potard.

- 57 -

Table 4.6: CLASSIFICATION OF IMPORTS BY END-USE. 1970-87

Nonsocialist Countries

Percentages 1970 1975 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

Raw matis & interm. products 77.8 65.5 74.4 75.5 76.0 73.8 75.4 74.2 67.8 69.7Consumption 7.4 4.8 8.1 11.9 10.7 9.6 9.6 11.0 14.3 12.6Investment 12.2 24.4 11.4 9.1 6.0 4.8 7.8 9.3 12.4 12.0Non-material production 2.6 5.3 6.1 3.S 7.3 11.8 7.2 5.4 5.5 5.7

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Growth Indices la

Raw matis & interm. products 100 277.7 321.8 196.9 148.8 152.5 171.6 184.4Consumption 100 213.4 478.1 285.0 132.2 140.9 168.0 214.7Investment 100 658.0 132.4 154.9 96.9 125.6 273.0 225.8Non-material production 100 670.7 326.1 111.3 306.6 253.8 102.5 140.5

Total 100.0 329.0 283.0 194.0 147.0 157.0 168.0 187.4

Socialist Countries

Percentages 1970 1975 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

Raw matls & interm. products 62.3 62.4 59.8 68.1 68.1 67.7 66.3 64.3 64.2 62.7Consumption 14.4 13.7 15.3 15.4 19.4 18.7 18.0 18.8 19.8 19.3Investment 19.6 21.8 19.7 13.3 8.4 9.5 10.7 10.5 10.7 12.3Non-material production 3.7 2.2 5.2 3.2 4.1 4.1 5.0 6.4 5.3 5.7

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Growth Indices a/

Raw matis & interm. products 100.0 148.0 187.2 207.3 172.0 178.9 200.1 214.7Consumption 100.0 140.8 217.8 183.2 216.7 173.5 203.6 231.6Investment 100.0 164.6 176.2 122.9 108.6 203.6 174.0 217.6Non-material production 100.0 88.0 460.9 112.0 220.4 180.0 160.7 288.2

Total 100.0 148.0 19S.0 182.0 172.0 180.0 196.0 221.7

/A Calculated by applying the percentage classification of imports (above) to constant priceindices for the total.

source: CSO

2768G

- 58 -

Table 5.1 Poland: Extermal Debt

(Sin USS)

Ei-of -period 1981 1962 1983 19K 19W5 1986 196? 19a8

.... .... ,___.. ...................................................................

Convertible Currency 25.9 26.5 26.4 26.9 29.7 3S.5 39.2 39.1

Short*Term 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4

Medium- & Lfg-T4faBy Naturity 24.3 23.6 22.4 21.5 23.9 28.8 32.6 30.6

1 - SYeas 10.9 10.7 8.S 7.2 6.7 S.2 4.2 4.1

over 5 Years 13.4 12.9 13.9 14.3 17.2 23.6 28.4 26.S

By Tvpe & By Creditor 24.3 23.6 22.4 21.S 23.9 28.8 32.6 30.6

Guaranted 12.5 12.2 13.6 14.0 1s.7 18.9 21.8 20.6

Paris Ctub 1/ 10.8 10.7 11.3 10.7 12.0 1S.9 19.8 18.7

CIA 0.1 0.1 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.S 1.4

Coamwrcial Cred 2/ 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.4 0.3 0.3

Other 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.2

No2ularanteed 11.8 11.4 8.8 7.5 8.2 9.9 10.8 1i.0

Cierial S*fn Rescheduling 3/ 8.6 8.0 6.5 6.1 6.6 7.s 8.3 7.6

EaEA 1.9 1.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.1

Camorcial Cred 2/ 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

other 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.1

Int.et Arrter 4/ 0.5 1.6 2.7 4.1 4.4 3.3 5.1 7.1

Vouconvertibt. Cur eiy S/ 2.6 2.9 2.7 2.8 3.4 4.2 2.9 3.0

Short-Tens 1.0 O.S 0.2 0.6 .. 0.1

ediau- & Lort-TermBy Natutity 1.6 2.4 2.5 2.2 3.4 4.1 2.9 3.0

1 - S Years 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.5

over 5 Yetrs 0.9 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.4 3.4 2.S 2.S

TOTAL DEOT ftm t arrars 28.5 29.4 29.1 29.7 33.1 37.7 42.1 42.1

Shrt-Term 2.1 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4

" dium- A Lorq-Twr 25.9 26.0 24.9 23.7 27.3 32.9 35.S 33.6

1/ Inetuces Brstit. wich did rat participat, In 1981 Ptris Club reecheduing agreaent.

2/ 'mrelianl Credits siarsateed ad nwnpasranteed Ifclut Cred"ts extended to Ptlisb foreign trade

enterprises by foreign btns as well as by foretgn uporter. The guaranteed portion is dae to

Paris Club creditors.3/ tn addition to the aumts shoam samtl aenunt of obgiption du to bn*s owned by CEA

countries and Intitutiens have been included in the rechiualiq agressents with the commrcit

bwka.4 EstivateL. Include amunts covered by ouLtilateral reseheduigf aogreerents and which therefore

are not showin as arrears but for tAich bilateral reeomwnts have Vt to be signed. At endF1968

virtually all these arrers ware to Paris Club creditors.

S/ The externwl debt In n conertible curries wse converted from tronferable rubles (TR) into

US using cross rates derived from the camr tCal rates of the aloty vis-avis the Ti ard US 6:

prior to 1962 the period averae exchan rate ws used but since 1962 endeof-period rates have

buen ued.

1S2M: latienal Baik of Poland.

EXKTMT: A1.164

- 59 --

Table S.2 Polan: ftrity Sd=je of Hadiun ad Lau Tem Extent DbtIn Crsribte O.rruies at b Am, 1939 #

( miltlial).......................................................................................................................

Debt *t- Sedstwdrg Natf Later Celae

6.3D.1I9W 19 1990 1991 1992 1951 194 1995 Yom........................................................................................................................

Total Palmns ue 3650 971 25 3913 a2i 4 4W 440? 11110 a0

Paris Ct Creit" 293 66 2 7 3an 3 3 7 5 1 of hich

PrevioaLy Rud. Ofzt 2378a 334 34 2340 2338 3900 3900 391B 3117 191Ncn'scwhAed Oft 1466 32 24 134 100 89 7? 7? 124 291

Camciat UrsParticipatirg inRmdlirg Agrew ts 821 --- 1229b U) 139 in 376 3M6 6162 ---

O0A 2110 46 51 114 161 113 31 31 15 ---

Camrcial Cralits 140 33 43 31 12 5 4 5 7 ---

Other 1M as 26 66 141 23 44 3D 137 93

........................................................................................................................

a: Natlim StW of Poled.a tIrus Interest Arrb r.b/ Iitul cbigftias udar re.mvir credit facilities arrntly y ato be rlid in 1991.

- 60 -

Table 6.1: State Budget Revenues a/

(9Ins of Zlotys)........ ..................... .................................................................................................................

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1986 1987 1988 1989(est)11I

........................................ .............................................. I..........................................

Total Revenue 1214.0 1148.7 2404.9 2707.9 3403.0 4224.2 4765.9 5171.0 6168.5 10543.6 29097.7

Tax Revene 978.4 917.0 2163.5 2S15.6 3131.3 386S.0 4560.9 4855.t 5331.1 9888.1 26075.0

from Socialized Sector b/ 885.5 802.8 2014.8 2180.7 2648.4 3306.6 3887.? 4109.5 4952.8 9187.3 24119.1

Turnover Tax 416.0 406.2 638.3 952.2 1170.4 1285.1 1422.6 1508.5 1795.7 3202.9 9205.0

Inco= Tax c/ 188.3 100.6 766.6 630.0 756.4 1119.9 1350.4 1430.0 1859.3 3599.0 8388.2

Wage Tax 134.3 150.8 207.3 268.3 318.1 390.8 444.4 495.3 612.7 1043.3 3522.2

Dividends - -- - -- 1824.0

Real Estate Tax 5.? 6.0 34.7 50.1 105.2 108.3 112.7 111.3 116.5 228.5 229.5

Charge an Cap Ocpr d/ 26.9 21.6 44.1 45.8 65.2 63.1 88.4 75.7 35.5

Taxes on Levies on FT 110.2 107.5 181.4 17?.3 216.2 297.5 322.2 360.9 414.1 602.5 937.0

PPW (1986) -- -- - - 120.0

Tax on exces. wage incr.el -- -- 78.8 52.6 209.8

Other f/ 4.1 10.1 142.4 57.0 16.9 41.9 27.0 49.0 66.4 301.3 13.2

Soc Sec Contributions 2/ 64.0 80.3 100.1 25S.5 354.0 380.5 453.6 492.3 -

From the cmnsoc Sector 14.3 15.1 27.8 44.1 1.7 112.0 144.5 172.2 257.9 470.6 1254.9

From the Population 14.6 18.8 20.8 35.3 57.2 65.9 75.1 81.7 120.4 230.2 445.0

Fiscal Fee 256.0

Nontax Revenu 235.6 231.7 241.4 192.3 271.7 359.2 205.0 315.3 837.4 655.5 3022.7

Transfers from Fin Inst 153.3 142.0 158.9 59.4 81.4 93.6 96.0 167.9 166.3 363.0 2441.1

Transfers frau the Fumd forOccoational Training (PFAZ) 10.0 46.0 60.0 132.0 - --

Other 82.3 89.7 72.5 86.9 130.3 133.6 109.0 147.4 297.1 292.5 581.6

a/ In the Polish presentation of buigetary data, revenues also include receipts of foreign credits awd drawdown of

goenmnt deposits with the banking system. In addition, taxes and levies on foreign trade have not been included

in the reveue acrounts since 1981 but are netted against foreign trade subeidies in the expenditure accounts.

b/ In Polish usage, nly receipts of turnover ta. inrae tax, wag tax, and real estate tax from the socialized sector

are regarded as tax revemes. All other revenues from this sector are regarded as nontax revenues.

c/ Taxation of enterpris profits.

d/. A certain proportion, mAich may vary betien enterprises and sectors, of total provisiore by enterprises or capital

aortization is paid to the bhdet.

e/ Since 1986 the tax on excessive wage increases has accrued directly to the state budget; previously it accrued

to the Frwd for Ocacptionrl Training, bhich transferred sane portion of its revenue to the State Budget.

f/ Includs receipts fran a stabilization tax which was inposed as one-or-all levy on enterprises in 1982.

g/ A certain proportion of of social security contributions accrues to the State Budget and the reminder to the

Pension Fund, which is an extrabudgetary fund.

Source: Data provided by the ministry of Finance.

- 61 -

Table 6.2: State Budget Expenditures al(Blns of Zlotys)

Budget1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 198S 1986 1987 1988 1989(est)

£ It,........................................................................I........................................................

Total xpenditure 1243.0 1463.2 2567.5 2850.4 3595.0 4195.9 4345.2 5315.3 6388.9 10610.1 35364.7

Current Expenditure 1138.4 1363.6 2299.7 2468.1 3143.1 3656.4 3754.2 4555.? 5446.2 9030.5 33167.6Purchases of Goods & Services 93.2 105.9 221.1 260.2 317.1 431.5 389.2 490.5 610.9 967.4Paynets of Bns & Salaries 87.2 113.6 183.7 224.1 279.1 329.0 341.9 411.3 510.3 890.7 ..Social Insurence Payments tothe Pension fuwd in respectGovertment Enptoyees 16.4 26.3 43.8 81.8 107.1 126.3 133.9 157.7 193.5 296.4

Social Insurance & WetfareBenefits Paid to the Pop 31.0 43.2 203.3 211.7 229.S 231.1 225.7 246.5

Subsidies 719.9 848.8 1146.2 1140.1 1486.6 1671.8 1721.1 2108.1 2687.9 4393.5To the Population (300.0) (363.3) (572.6) (576.2) (748.6) (806.7) (860.4)(1,183.1)(1.690.8)(2,966.5)(8,056.9)To Enterprises & Econ Units (419.9) (485.5) (573.6) (563.9) (738.0) (86S.1) (860.7) (925.0) (997.1)(1,427.0) ...

Transfers to Other Units b/ 79.4 104.2 250.9 261.5 330.7 365.9 453.6 541.8 683.2 1247.5 ...Natinal Mefense & PtblicSecurity 91.1 103.4 232.7 258.7 337.2 384.4 418.8 504.6 617.2 987.0 2794.8Other cf 20.2 18.2 18.0 30.0 55.8 116.4 70.0 95.2 143.2 248.0 ...

Expenditure on Investment &Capital Modernization 104.6 99.6 267.8 382.3 451.9 539.5 591.0 759.6 942.7 1579.6 2197.1

Investment 71.4 67.2 183.0 292.6 349.0 444.0 467.6 597.0 745.9 1238.4 1828.4Modernization & Repair 33.2 32.4 84.8 89.7 102.9 95.5 123.4 162.6 196.8 341.2 368.7

,.................................................................................................................................

a/ In the Polish presentation of budgetary experditure data, repaymnts of principal on the goverrhnt's foreignborro,iiv are included as an expenditure itea. In addition, after 1981 sibsidies to enterprises and other econonicunits are show net of taxes and levies on foreign trade.

bl Consists mainly of transfers to extrabudgetary funds and other orpnizations to finance expenditures for variouscuLtural, educational, and social purposes.

c/ Incltudes interest pwA*nts on foreign credits extended by the goverrnent.

Source: Data provided by the Ministry of Finance.

- 62 -

Tsbte 6.3 Potand: Investment Outlays(Bittian of Current Zlotys)

.................................................. ................................................................................

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988

Total, Investment Outlays 605.9 481.9 1056.0 1321.8 1711.3 2147.7 2771.0 3743.7 6504.3

Productive 431.5 336.2 679.2 841.1 1104.2 1398.9 1816.0 2447.1No,iProductive 174.4 145.7 376.8 480.7 607.1 748.8 955.0 1296.6

Socialized Economy 535.7 405.5 839.3 1039.6 1377.9 1739.9 2308.0 3141.4 5517.4MonSocialized Economy 70.2 76.4 216.7 282.2 333.4 387.8 463.0 602.3 986.9

of which: Agriculture 33.4 39.1 101.0 135.7 161.6 182.1 211.0 263.8

BY TYPE OF OUTLAY

Construction & Assembly Works 311.4 246.5 688.5 872.9 1125.2 1365.9 1741.0 2257.3 3834.5Machinery & Equipment 266.0 209.9 320.7 389.8 503.2 66b.9 867.0 1262.4 2278.6Others 28.5 25.5 46.8 59.1 82.9 112.9 163.0 224.0 391.2

BY SECTOR OF NATIONAL ECONGIY

Industry 209.5 158.5 306.9 367.1 487.2 638.7 838.0 1172.3 2048.9of which: Socialized Industrial Enterp 208.8 157.8 304.6 363.5 483.1 634.2 833.0 1164.2Fuel & Power 72.4 51.4 122.0 134.1 169.6 227.9 308.0 383.0 598.4Metallurgy 22.9 12.8 15.9 18.1 28.8 40.5 55.0 70.1 117.1Electro-Engirwering 50.3 41.6 64.2 84.3 109.0 133.7 185.0 308.2 533.4Chemical 21.1 15.8 29.1 37.1 50.0 59.3 68.6 91.0 175.6mineral 7.9 5.3 10.8 14.0 20.9 27.6 34.8 47.0 78.1Wood and Paper 7.5 S.5 9.9 11.4 15.8 19.7 26.0 36.0 78.1Light Industry 7.8 6.1 11.3 15.1 25.2 38.3 46.1 67.1 143.1Food Processing 16.8 17.3 37.2 43.3 56.5 76.6 90.2 135.0 260.2other Industries 2.1 2.0 4.2 6.1 7.3 10.6 19.3 26.8 39.0Total 208.8 157.8 304.6 363.5 483.1 634.2 833.0 1164_2 2022.8

Corstruction 27.2 15.6 18.7 25.1 37.0 48.1 64.7 91.6 175.6Agriculture 97.7 87.9 196.8 243.8 294.7 346.5 414.0 539.7 904.1Forestry 3.0 2.7 7.0 10.7 14.6 11.8 13.8 20.2 32.5Transport & Comnunications 60.7 38.9 63.8 79.4 121.6 165.2 219.3 304.0 559.4Trade 11.5 11.0 24.8 34.4 42.4 50.6 84.2 114.4 195.1Caomuity Services 29.9 27.8 75.7 94.4 122.5 156.4 210.9 278.4 500.8Mousing & Noiwaterisl CowAunIty Services 127.4 M05.4 280.2 359.5 440.0 530.3 655.9 844.2 1404.9Science 2.6 2.2 3.8 3.7 5.2 7.9 11.9 19.8 32.5Education 8.6 8.3 23.2 32.7 44.5 60.4 79.7 105.9 188.6Cultural Services 1.6 0.9 1.9 2.7 3.9 6.2 7.2 11.2 26.0Heatth Services & Social Welfare 9.5 9.7 25.1 34.2 46.7 64.1 84.8 114.0 188.6Tourism, Recreation & Sports 8.1 6.2 10.7 14.1 19.7 25.4 34.5 47.3 84.6Other 8.6 6.8 17.4 20.0 31.3 36.1 52.9 80.7 117.1

Sorce: GUS.

IMVEST2: Ai.155

- 63 -

Table 6.4 Poland: Investmnt utIsyp

(Billions of Zlotys)

................................................... ................................................................................

1980 1961 1982 195 1984 1985 1966 1987 1988... ..... ...... .......... ..... ........ .......... ................. .............................................

*...... . 1962 PRIC --.------ 1984 Prices ---.---

Totalt Inveastent Outlays 1550.9 1204.3 1058.2 1157.3 1289.7 1346.6 1906.0 1987.0 2093.8

Productive 1052.2 804.6 681.4 737.4 MA9.4 895.7 1246.0 199. 5lorProductive 498.7 399.7 376.8 419.9 450.3 470.9 660.0 687.5

Socialized Econaom 1339.4 996.0 839.3 920.1 1049.5 1129.0 157.0 1641.2MonSocialized Econmy 211.5 208.3 218.9 237.2 240.2 237.6 334.0 345.8

of WAich: Agriculture 96.9 104.7 103.1 112.4 116.2 112.3 157.0 157.2

BY TYPE OF OUTLAY

Construction & Assembly Works 926.4 715.5 688.5 766.1 .S 864.2 1203.0 1238.3Nachinery & Equipcent 571.2 440.5 322.9 342.7 393.6 437.8 604.0 645.3Others 53.3 48.3 46.8 48.5 S7.6 64.6 96.0 103.4

BY SECTOR OF NAtIONAL ECONC4Y

Industry 484.0 352.5 307.0 325.9 370.5 407.1 561.0 589.0 614.1of WAich: Socialized Industrial Enterp 482.2 350.9 304.6 323.0 367.S 404.3 558.0 584.5Fuel & Power 178.9 123.9 122.0 118.4 128.2 144.S 205.0 198.0 185.7Metatllurgy S.5 25.7 15.9 16.7 21.8 25.6 36.0 35.0 35.2Electro-Engineering 108.2 83.1 64.2 75.0 84.1 86.7 1I4.0 148.2 154.2Chemical 45.7 33.7 29.1 32.9 37.4 37.3 46.4 46.3 52.0Mineral 18.7 12.7 10.8 12.4 16.1 17.7 23.5 24.0 24.0Wood and Paper 17.0 12.5 9.9 10.2 12.3 12.7 17.8 18.2 22.9Light Incistry 16.2 12.8 11.3 13.5 19.2 24.4 31.3 33.0 41.5Food Processing 40.2 41.6 37.2 38.5 42.8 48.5 60.6 69.tI 82.2Other Industries 4.8 4.9 4.2 5.4 5.6 6.9 13.4 12.7 12.5Total 482.2 350.9 304.6 323.0 367.5 404.3 558.0 584.5 610.5

Construction 62.7 35.9 18.7 22.3 29.0 31.7 44.8 47.0 52.4Agriculture 270.0 235.6 198.9 207.8 216.2 21S.3 295.0 304.6 314.7Forestry 7.7 7.3 7.0 9.6 11.2 7.6 9.5 10.8 11.8Transport & Ccm.mications 142.6 89.4 63.8 70.8 97.2 110.7 152.6 161.8 179.1Trade 27.4 26.3 24.8 30.4 33.5 33.4 58.6 61.4 63.7Coimunity Services 82.2 75.7 75.? 82.9 93.3 101.7 144.2 147.9 162.5Housing & Norlaterial Commity Services 376.0 299.2 280.2 313.1 324.2 330.8 453.0 461.1 474.5Science 5.8 5.0 3.8 3.3 4.0 5.2 8.2 10.1 10.0Education 22.3 20.9 23.2 28.8 33.5 38.7 55.5 58.1 62.5Cultural Services 3.9 2.2 1.9 2.4 3.0 4.0 4.9 5.7 7.1Health Services & Social Welfare 23.4 21.1 25.1 29.9 35.2 40.7 59.0 61.5 60.5Tourism, Recreation, & Sports 21.0 15.8 10.7 12.4 14.7 16.0 23.5 25.3 28.3Other 21.9 17.2 17.4 17.7 24.2 23.7 36.1 42.6 51.0

............................... ..................................................................................................................... _

Source: GUS.

INVEST1: A1.157

- 64 -

Table 7.1 Polard: oNetary Survey(Billioi of Zlotys)

,.......................................................................................................................................

Oct.1981 1982 19B3 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989

........................................................................................................................................

1. Net Foreiun Assets (123.4) (135.1) (139.2) (173.5) (198.3) (120.1) 350.3 892.8 1,560.31.1 Foreig Assets 147.7 222.3 264.4 413.0 510.2 707.2 1,4?3.3 2,640.0 5,426.01.2 Foreign Liabilities 271.1 357.4 403.6 586.5 708.5 827.3 1,123.0 1,747.2 3,865.7

2. Danestic Credit 3,388.0 4,075.2 4,552.3 5,003.7 5,913.0 6,910.6 8,141.5 11,566.7 21,684.72.1 Credit to the Socialized

Sector 3,305.0 3,788.1 4,145.7 4,538.7 5,291.2 6,292.9 7,213.8 10,018.6 16,723.22.2 Credit to the Nonsociatized

sector 164.7 223.6 294.8 372.3 461.8 579.5 741.5 1,100.2 1,805.52.3 Credit to the Govt (Net) (215.4) (123.1) (103.4) (101.6) (213.7) (304.7) (244.5) (308.6) 1,426.92.4 Settlements with the State

Sudoet 133.7 186.6 215.2 194.3 373.7 342.9 430.7 756.5 1,729.1

3. Broad Rey 1,871.3 2,555.3 2,939.4 3,478.2 4,209.1 5,325.9 7,145.7 11,648.4 22,563.43.1 N 1 1,069.5 1,485.2 1,647.1 1,903.0 2,292.1 2,792.4 3,515.3 5,580.2 9,706.83.2 QasiMne 801.8 1,070.1 1,292.3 1,575.2 1,917.0 2,533.5 3,630.4 6,09.2 12,856.6

4. Other Item (Net) 393.3 1,384.8 1,473.7 1,352.0 1,505.6 1,464.6 1,346.1 811.1 681.6of kich:- LonTerm Foreign Liabilities 1,293.6 1,884.4 2,027.0 2,447.6 3,351.2 5,413.0 10,140.4 15,180.7 29,674.3

;oreign CurrSry ValuationAdjustnmnt (118.1) (787.1) (960.5) (1,517.5) (2,278.2) (4,674.2) (9,558.7) (15,462.0) (31,640.9)

5. ,urandn Item:Share of Morey held by theSocialized Sector 41.6 40.8 - 37.9 37.6 33.1 32.4 34.0 - 30.3 32.6

Share of Narrow MNey in BroadMoney 57.2 58.1 56.0 54.7 54.5 52.4 49.2 48.0 43.0of ,dich:

in the Socialized Sector 85.0 83.4 82.5 80.5 88.1 89.6 86.2 79.8 58.2in the Nor6Oelaized Sector 37.3 40.7 39.9 39.1 37.8 34.6 30.1 34.2 35.7

Share of Cash in Broad Mne 21.5 23.7 24.4 23.7 24.1 21.9 18.4 21.7 21.8of ktich:held by the No,6ocialized Sector 92.1 93.2 92.3 92.8 92.8 92.9 93.1 93.6 31.2s A . ......................................

Source: Polish Authorities.

- 65 -

Table 7.2: Interest Rates an Bank Deposits(Percent per Atma)

~~ ~~~ ~End oPeriod 19881982 t9f 1984 1985 t986 1987 1988 19s9~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.. ... .......................... ..................................................... ........................... .................................. _

Socialized Sector Deposits 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 -Deffnd Deposits 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 -Social Funds Accountsof Aihch:Devlopment Fund 1/ 3 3 3 --Reserve Fund 1/ 3 3 3 3 3 3

Investment Accounts 3 3 3 3 3 --Fixed Term Deposits 2/Six months 5 5 5 5 5 5 -- 33One year 6 6 6 6 6 6 10 44Three years 8 8 8 8 8 a 15 --

Foreign Curtency Deposits 3/Current AccountsFixed for at least:Six months 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 5.0 5.0One year 5 5 5 9 9 9Three years 6 6 6 10 10 10Five years 7 7 7 11 11 11

Nouseholds and NonSocialized Entities DepositsDemnd DepositsCurrent/Checking Accounts 7 7 7 7 7 7 22 11Savings/Passbook Accounts 6 6 6 6 6 6 21 11Current Accounts 4/ 3 3 3 3 3 3 18 11

Savings Depositsof which:Fixed-term Deposits for at least: S/One year 10 10 10 10 10 10 25 44Two yearsThree years 13 13 13 13 13 15 15 66Housing Deposits 6XOld Scheme fbefore end.1980) 7/ 6 6 6 6 6 6 21 12Now Scheme 7/ 15 15 15 15 15 30 66

Advance Payments for Auto Purchases 8/Delivered in 1982-85 6 6 6 6 6Delivered in 1986-89 10 10 10 10 10 10 25 44

Five year Premiut Interest-bearing Accounts 9/ 13 13 13 13 13 13 28 55Premium Savings Bonds 10/ 6 6 6 6 6 6 21 21Deposit BonckDeo sit on/ 13 13 13 13 13 13 28 55Three _ars 11/ 15 15 15 1S 15 15 30 66Five years 9/ 15 15 1S 15 1S 15 30 66

Foreigin Exchange Deposits 12/Current Accounts 5 5 5 5 5 4Fixed for at least:Six months 13/ 8 8 8One year 9 9 9 9 9 SThree years 10 10 10 10 10 10Ffve years 11 11 11 11 11

NealoranduL I teosmAverage Interest Rate Paid on TotalDepsits 14/ 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.0 5.0 6.0of WhSch:Socialized Sector Deposits 2.7 2.4 2.8 2.1 2.1 3.0NonSocialized Sector Deposits 8.1 8.2 8.4 7.8 8.2 8.7

.,......................................................................................................................................................................._....

source: Date provided by the Natinal Bank of Poland.

1/ In 1985 deveLopment funds of enterprises accounted for 41X and 7?X respectively of their special funcs accounts.2/ with premature withdrwal, no interest is paid.3/ Rates apply to foreign exchange accounts denominated in crnertible currencies. For the currencies of OCEA mOber

countries no interest is earned. 1ith premature withdrawal within six months of dposit, no interest is paid; forlater withdrawals before mturfty 1X is paid.

4/ Demnd deposits of private businessms only.5/ With premture withdrawal in the ffrst and second year, 6o Is paid for fixed deposits of one (three) year; with later

withdraeals before maturity 9X is oaid6/ Banks are required to pay an additional 1.5X per amri to housSng cooperatives for the financing of their social and

and educat10nal facilities.7/ Under the old scheme premia are given to cover increases in housing costs; no premia are providad under th new schem

which bears higher interest rates for housing deposits.8/ lank pay an sdditional 2X to a transportation developtent fund. Deposits into these accounts ware last accepted in

1982.9/ With preature wiithdrawal In the first two years, 62 is paid- with later withdrawals before aturity 9C is paid.10/ The interest earned en these accounts accrues to a spocial fund and is distributed by mas of lottery moma

depositors every six months.11/ with prenmture withdrawal no interest is paid.12/ Rates apply to foreign exchange accounts denominated in convertible currencies (A Accounts). For currencies of the

aOEA oabor countries CS-Accounts) current accounts reeive 3X per arm and on year deposits 4.5X13/ Since 1985 only available to nonresidents.14/ Excluding deposits of state budget, uhich eam a zero rate of interest, cd interbenk deposits.

- 66 -

Table 7.3: Interest Rates on Bank Credits(Percent per Anunm)

..............................................................................................................................

End of PeriodMarch Sept.

1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1989

Credits to the Socialized SectorInvestment CreditsCentral and Enterprise Investments 8 9 9 9-12 9-12 9-12 9-12 t8 44-66 56 a/

With the exception of credits for:Mining & Power Industries 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 18 44-66 56 a/State Farms 3 6 6-8 6-C 6-8 6-8 6-8 9 22- +Cooperative Forms 2 6 6-8 6-8 6-8 6-8 6-8 9 22- + 22-3'Investment Related toExport Development

Housing Cooperatives 0-6.6 0-4 1-3 1-3 1-3 1-3 1-3 1-15 1-15 1-15

Working Capital Credit to State &Cooperative Units 8 9 9 9-12 9-12 9-12 9-18 44-66 56 a/With th exception of credits to:Domestic Trad wUnits 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 9 22- . 22-31Farm UnitsFor Fienting Seasonal Stocks 2 7 7 4 5 5 5 9 22- + 22-3iFor Finaneing Other Stocks &Current Assets 2 7 7 7-9 9 9 9 9

Exports to the Corwertible CurrencyArea 8 9 9 9-12 9-12 9-12 14 33- + 33-42

Food Processirg UnitsFor Financing Reserves & SeasonalStocks 4 9 9 4 5 5 5 9 22- + 22-3For Finarcing Other Stocks &Current Assets 8 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 22- + 22-31

Credits for Financing State Budget Deficit

Credits to NonSocialized EntitiesAgricultural Creditsof uhich:Investment 3 6 6 8 8 8 8 9 22- + 22-3Working Capital 4 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 22- + 22-31

NonAgricuttural CreditsInvestment CreditsFor Preferential Production(Including Handicraft) 5 8 8 11 11 12 11 12 22- e 22-31

Other Investment Credits 7 9 9 12 12 12 12 18 44- * 56 a,Working Capital CreditsFor Preferential ProductionOther Working Capital Credits 9 9 9 12 12 12 12 18 22- + 22-31

Credits to HouseholdsInstallment Purchases of ManufacturedGoods 3 6 6 6 12 12 12 9-25 9-55 9-56 a/Housing Construction 4.5-6.6 3 3 3 3 3 3Cash Credits 12 15 15 15 18 18 18 30 55-66 56 a/

Memorandum Item:Average Interest Rate Charged onTotal Credits 5 5 6 6 6 6Of which:Socialized Sector 5 5 6 6 6 6 13.6NonSocialfzed Sector 3 3 3 4 4 4

............... .............................-a/ Ref inantial credit.

Source: Data provided by Polish authorities.

- 67 -

Table 8.1 Polwd: Agricultural Prodhiction In Current Values(Billions of Zlotys)

... . ............ ..................... .... ...... ......... ................. ........... ..................... .. ............. ............................ .... ..............

1970 1975 1980 1981 1982 1983 194 ¶985 1986 1987 1988

Gross Proction 484.6 755.0 1305.3 1838.1 2085.5 2333.1 2586.5 3094.0 3652.1 6857.8

Vegatable Prockxtien 180.3 263.4 399.1 746.1 1029.0 1192.4 1313.3 1406.2 1685.0 2030.2 3661.7

of which:Cereats 18.0 66.3 ss.8 176.2 299.4 352.3 384.0 451.7 S34.0 658.8 1130.2

wheat 1s.9 20.8 21.4 38.9 63.7 90.3 94.2 147.9 186.0 233.3 405.7

Rye 7.6 18.5 27.4 59.7 108.5 137.8 149.0 124.0 132.0 152.0 236.4Barley 8.7 13.2 18.6 34.3 56.8 52.9 64.5 88.5 96.0 115.0 177.2

oats 37.0 8.3 8.7 21.2 34.7 34.5 37.2 42.8 45.0 51.2 82.0

Potatoes 37.0 61.0 83.4 185.8 245.6 249.0 255.5 257.3 292.0 331.0 747.1

Inuastrial Crops 17.3 28.s 28.7 67.6 89.2 108.9 132.7 146.S 171.0 205.3 378.2Sur Beats 7.7 1s.0 14.4 42.0 50.6 55.6 59.3 59.8 71.0 95.1 181.2

Vegetables 11.8 19.2 40.8 60.5 92.7 112.9 152.1 150.1 196.0 271.9 389.0Fruit 6.5 11.2 22.1 34.5 72.5 72.2 79.8 91.8 125.0 108.2 319.0

aodoc HaW 11.1 16.2 28.9 45.2 40.0 56.5 57.5 54.7 63.0 79.1 113.1

Animal Production 221.2 355.9 561.2 809.1 893.1 1019.8 1180.3 1410.0 1621.9 3196.1

of which:Livestock SlaUghtered 61.8 115.1 187.4 256.6 418.7 444.1 496.3 611.1 750.0 8W6.6 1680.8

of bich:

Cattte inst Calves 15.9 32.7 49.2 62.4 124.7 134.6 161.8 194.3 221.0 262.2 S51.7

Pigs 38.2 68.0 106.9 149.8 247.8 248.7 254.1 320.0 404.0 457.0 910.6

Poultry S.4 9.7 22.3 33.9 30.2 39.9 55.5 64.2 85.0 102.1 200.3

Cage in Livetock Herd -2.7 0.5 -20.4 8.1 .19.4 *15.8 6.0 -2.9 -11.0 -39.6 -22.5

Cow Mitk 39.2 58.4 104.7 190.7 252.5 296.0 336.2 367.8 412.0 482.3 1032.5

men Eggs 12.6 i1.3 28.5 40.7 73.0 80.8 86.1 99.6 111.0 131.3 219.3

Souce: GUS.

AGPRO1: Al1.17

- 68 -

Table 8.2 Poland: Production and Yield of Selected Crops

... .. ................ ................................ ......... ................. .S........ _.................

1978 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989(es'........... ................................. ........................................................................................................

PRCOUCTION (C000 taem)Cereats 21537 18336 19721 21166 22099 24392 23742 25036 26060 24504 26757Of which 4 cereals 19591 16406 17205 18523 19584 21709 20829 21474 21521 2040 ...Wheat 6029 4176 4203 6476 5165 6010 6461 7502 7941 7582 8394Rye 7434 6566 6731 7792 8780 9540 7600 7074 6816 5501 5171Barley 3636 3419 3540 3647 3262 3555 4086 4412 4385 3804 3371Oats 2492 2245 2731 2608 2377 2604 2682 2486 2428 2222 2174

Fodder Pulses for Grain 151 112 119 169 225 328 338 372 399 440 ...Potatoes 46648 26391 42562 31951 3U473 37437 36546 39037 36252 34707 37251Sugar Beets 15707 10139 15867 15085 16364 16048 14664 14217 13986 14089 13S91Oil Plants 714 583 505 445 566 934 1082 1304 1192 1206 1557Of which rape & agrimony 691 572 496 433 554 911 1073 1298 1186 1199 ...

Fodder - Root Crops 9654 8044 11722 10541 10351 10891 10488 10522 10358 9667Hay: Trefoil 7681 7582 8968 7638 8381 8957 9032 8880 8665 8314 ..

Meadow 14676 12381 14749 12902 14542 15493 15098 15207 15404 14809 ...Four Cereal Straws 22446 20315 20497 20923 24407 27859 26098 .. 29106 28032 ...

YIELD (Quintals/he)Cereals 27.4 23.4 24.9 26.1 27.3 29.9 28.9 30.4 31.1 29.0 32.8Of which 4 cereals 27.5 23.5 25.0 26.3 27.5 30.0 28.9 30.5 31.1 29.1Wheat 32.6 26.0 29.6 30.7 33.6 33.2 34.3 37.0 37.2 34.8 38.3Rye 24.5 21.6 22.4 23.8 25.5 26.9 24.7 25.6 25.8 23.7 27.1Bartey 30.2 25.9 27.3 29.5 29.7 33.7 32.9 33.0 33.7 34.0 33.0Oats 24.2 22.5 23.6 24.0 22.8 27.9 27.0 26.9 28.4 26.1 27.1

Fodder Pulses for Grain 11.5 9.5 10.7 12.5 12.2 14.8 13.8 14.3 16.8 16.2Potatoes 198.0 113.0 189.0 147.0 155.0 174.0 174.0 194.0 187.0 186.0 178.1Sugar Beets 300.0 221.0 338.0 306.0 336.0 340.0 336.0 336.0 332.0 341.0 320.1Oil Plants 19.9 17.3 17.5 16.4 21.7 22.3 22.7 25.0 23.6 25.2 26.7Of which rape 8 agrimony 20.5 17.9 17.9 16.8 22.4 23.0 23.0 25.2 23.8 25.2

Fodder - Root Crops 362.0 313.0 430.0 366.0 401.0 433.0 440.0 459.0 464.0 469.0Hay: Trefoil 50.1 48.9 51.8 45.2 49.9 55.6 56.4 56.6 58.0 66.5 ...

Meadow 58.7 50.0 59.4 51.9 58.3 62.2 60.9 61.5 62.6 64.0FDur Cereal Straws 31.5 29.2 29.8 29.7 34.3 38.5 36.0 37.0 36.4 33.7

Source: GUS.

- 69 -

TdAe 8.3 Polrd: Livftoc Us of Jd m)

............ ........................................ ,.... ..............................

t971 1978 1979 19l0 1e1 1We 1SX 1M4 191i 13 1987 198

._.........._. .......... ................ ............................... ............................................................................. ... ..... .... .

C a t t l eIW 13115 1 5 MO9 11797 11912 11369 1197 tt055 1O940 10523 l1

of 1itc: 1w 4m 6049 556 5757 5815 5776 S759 5528 50 46 48as

P g 134(6 2171? 28 21t 1880 1%A 18 I 17514 1O 1546 190

of idcd: Sam 15I 2196 313 24a7 21 192 1613 1796 1935 197 1952 2041

Sheep 3199 468 42 487 381 3B99 41t4 434 45 4980 4739 4376

H o r So s 2 131 156 1780 17 1734 1600 157 14u 1272 1141 1511

(pw 100 N of du1aj1Artl Lwd in he*)

Cattle 55.5 60.8 M6 66.8 62.4 63.1 59.7 59.3 58.? S60 560 55.1

of idch,: ase 31.1 31.9 31.9 31A6 30.4 309 30.6 .5 29.3 V.0 26.3 2.6

P I a s 688 113.9 111.8 112.6 97.7 10.1 8W.6 88.2 93.5 1C0.0 5e.7 104.

of Aid: SOm 7.? 11.S 12.2 12.8 11.S 10.4 8.5 9.4 10.3 10.0 10A 10.9

sheep 6.4 22.3 22.2 .2 20.5 8.6 21.7

Norses 13.2 9.9 9.8 9.4 9.1 9.2 8.5 8.1 7.4 6.0 6.1 5.6

Ss £.

F.IW:E £118

- 70 -

Table 9.1 Poland: Grano Irstralo Prdction(8itlions of Current ZlotYS)

......,. *........................................................................................... .................................................

1979 1980 1981 1982 1963 1984 1985 1986 1987

I ItFhtl & Posr 32.1 341.6 308.5 975.9 1209.2 1433.9 1747.3 1747.3 2180.0 2904.7metallurgy 264.3 332.5 26.3 586.6 731.8 933.6 1136.4 1136.4 1420.0 1958.2Etectro-EIngeinrn 880.8 957.0 872.6 1660.6 1940.2 2339.8 2926.1 2926.0 3640.0 4840.0Cdeal 270.? 292.2 275.4 SS4.1 655.6 787.9 986.5 986.4 1220.0 1676.1MineraL 99.0 106.8 93.2 254.0 300.5 359.S 421.5 421.5 512.0 662.3Wood ond Paper 129.1 141.4 129.6 280.9 324.1 374.4 471.1 469.3 594.0 790.9Lfght InAstry 381.7 414.7 383.9 625.5 811.3 996.5 1294.1 1293.5 1S20.0 2007.3Food Proeasf aP 612.7 616.4 696.7 1702.9 2054.1 2344.4 2723.6 23M.8 2820.0 3423.7Other Inatrie 7.1 79.7 96.8 155.7 196.3 252.2 294.1 248.5 318.0 418.7

T 0 T A L 3041.5 3282.3 3137.2 6796.2 8Z22.1 9622.2 12000.7 11617.7 14224.0 1861.9

.........................................................................................

rU: A16.

rndJT: AI.300

- 71 -

Tbl.e 9.2 Polend: Gross Value of Prodotivw Fixed Assets in Socialtfd Indutry(3111tcm of Current Zlotys)

._. ............. .......................... _.................................

1982 1983 1984 1SI5 1986 17.................................................................................

Fuel & Power 2312.3 2428.9 2576.0 27U.r 2921.8 3222.?

lotallturg 1148.5 1157.4 1173.7 1185.4 1211.9 1277.3Itectro-Erg1neer1ri 1905.4 1978.2 2036.6 2130.7 2229.6 2453.9Chemcal 860.7 875.8 911.0 95.8 1010.0 1073.6Ninerat 518.7 S23.7 56.5 555.4 564.2 572.6Wood and Paper 355.9 364.8 M9.0 354.8 400.1 420.4

Lfght Idustry 539.2 551.7 56.8 582.4 611.9 456.4

Food ProcessIng 770.1 785.6 804.7 86.7 876.1 939.0Other indstries 1S0.3 154.1 163.3 176.4 185.5 186.0

T 0 T A . 8561.1 8820.2 9135.6 957.3 10011.1 10801.9

..................................................................

S : OS.

Irdvat: A1.027

Table 1P.1: SOURCES AND USES OF ENERGY SUPPLY, 1970 1990(In millions of tons of coal equivalent)

= ,,__ _ ___ = , 1970 1975 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 5 1_ l 9b- 1987 1988 19901. Oaestic production 136.7 16A. 175.3 1 169. 17 172 5 i.1 1L21 179Q3 t1,5- 181 114.LSolid fuels 129.8 156 6 167.9 141.6 163.3 166.1 168.6 170.3 17; 2 174.0 173.4 178.2Oil and oil products 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.18atual gas 5.9 6.8 6.1 6.4 5.5 5.1 5.7 5.9 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5Other (e.g., hydroelectricity nuclearpower. etc 3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 0 5 0 5 r N 0.6 G 5 0.5 0.6 0.4Refuse fuels 1 4 1 5

2. Imports !5.0 Z47 D.0 29.8 2,9.) 29.7 Q,§ 3L.2 3 ? 7 34.( 35,3Solid fuels 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 0 o 1 0 1.0 1.1 2 1.1 1.1 1.1Oil and oil products 12.6 20.6 26.7 22.5 21 3 21 4 22.2 22.5 ?i 7 23.4 24.2 23.5Natural gas 1.1 2.8 6.3 6.0 6A4 6.8 6.8 6.9 E.2 8.7 8.6 8.8Othe; 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.5 o.7 1.9

3. Exports 3, 4.7 32 8 16.6 29 1 35 2 42.8 3S 9 13.2 30.1 31.2 _ 1Solid fuels 31.3 40.3 30.4 15.4 27.5 33.2 40,3 34.1 31.6 28.4 30.3 38.0Oil and oil products 1.7 2.1 2.0 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0G1Natural gas -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --Other 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.9 1.5 2.0 1.4 1.1 1.4 0.8 -

4 Changes in stocks Ol LI -- B. 3 8 -5 -3.1 -0 2 -0.2 2z3 L20Solid fuels 0.2 0.7 -0.8 0.1 7.6 4.9 -5.9 -3.1 0.2 -0.6 2.0 -2.0Oil and oil products -0.1 0.4 1.0 -0.1 0.5 -0.6 0.1 -- -- 0.2 0.2 --Natual gas -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 0.1 0.1 --

5. Consumption and losses inthe energy sector 36. 0 54 0 52.9 574 52 5. 6 58.4'

6. Total domestic consumption(- 1+2-3-4-5) 8, 100. 122.3 113.7 111.3 109.8 114.3 tl8.3 121. 126.7 123.8

By sourceSolid fuels 43.5 45.3 52.1 46.9 47.0 44.8 46.9 49.4 51.2 .. .. ...Oil and oil products 7.8 13.3 16.4 15.4 13.5 14.0 13.9 14.0 13.8 ... ... ..Natural gas 4.8 7.5 10.0 10.5 10.2 10.2 11.0 11.5 10.9 ... ... ...Other a/ 26.4 34.8 43.8 40.9 40.6 40.8 42.5 43.5 45.2

By userIndustry 39.2 47.0 57.7 52.5 48.3 47.3 49.8 52.2 53.2Construction 1.0 2.2 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.3 2.3 ... ...Agriculture 1.5 2.6 3.9 3.7 3.5 4.1 4.5 4.5 4.4 ... ...Transportation 10.8 10.6 9.4 8.6 8.3 8.3 7.2 7.0 7.1 .. ... ...Household 30.0 38.5 48.6 46.4 48.9 47.7 50.2 52.3 54.1 ... ... ...

1i25 19B JIQ2 198 19841970 1975 1980 1982 1983

(Cumulative pereentaae chance)Memorandum item:

Domestic energy consumptionper unit of naterial output -23.3 14.2 9.4 -6.9 -1.4

a/ Defined to include electricity and heat generation. over 95S of which is based on coal.

SoVrsS: Centre of Energetics Information.

2768G

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Table 11.1 Poland: Producer Priem(19808140.0)

1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 196 1986 19t 1988

tNUSWTRY at 96.0 100.0 109.2 242.8 279.9 320.5 372.4 438.? S55.4 89r.5

Fuel and Power 98.9 100.0 108.2 370.6 417.7 482.4 576.5 706.2 706.2 706.2

Metallurgy 89.4 100.0 102.2 230.4 270.7 337.0 409.8 500.4 500.4 500.4

flectro*En,neering 98.7 100.0 103.5 206.2 231.2 261.7 300.7 348.2 431.1 670.4

Checdeals 97.4 100.0 101.3 217.0 239.8 274.3 333.3 398.9 519.0 841.8

mnfrals 99.7 100.0 100.7 2w3.2 323.7 373.2 442.2 516.5 661.7 1034.2

Wood and Pper 98.2 100.0 102.6 231.8 246.2 275.7 334.2 393.7 513.0 760.7

Textiles rnd Leather Products 94.2 100.0 106.3 177. 224.4 258.5 313.6 371.6 462.3 726.7

Food Processing 93.8 100.0 126.2 291.3 346.1 388.3 426.0 484.8 586.1 92Z.S

CNSTRUCTION 98.2 100.0 106.2 285.5 323.5 381.7 456.5 55.0 707.3 1160.0

AMRICULTE 89.4 100.0 162.2 252.4 281.2 301.1 332.7 381.0 465.2 76.8

(Perceinte Chow fra Previous Year)

NUMTRY 4.2 9.2 122.3 15.3 14.5 16.2 17.8 26.6 59.8

Fuel mi Pownr 1.1 8.2 242.5 12.? 15.5 19.5 22.5 31.2 70.2

allurgy 11.9 2.2 125.4 17.5 24.5 21.6 22.0 37.4 67.5

Ilectro-E.oilner1ir 1.3 3.5 99.2 12.1 13.2 14.9 15.8 23.8 S5.5

Chn1ecls 2.7 1.3 114.2 10.S 14.4 21.5 19.? 30.1 62.2

Minrals 0.3 0.7 181.2 14.3 15.3 18.5 16.8 28.1 56.3

Wood ard Pror 1.8 2.6 125.9 6.2 12.0 21.2 17.8 30.3 48.3

Textiles aid Leather Products 6.2 6.3 66.6 26.7 15.2 21.3 18.5 24.4 57.2

Food Processirn 6.6 26.2 130.8 18.8 12.2 9.7 13.8 20.9 S7.4

CIST3UCTIG1 1.8 4.2 174.0 13.3 18.0 19.6 22.0 27.0 64.0

AGRICUL8E t11.9 62.2 55.6 11.4 7.1 10.5 14.5 22.1 64.4

,................................................ .....................................................................

so:c GA.For inuAtry proedwr prices are d@firad by the indbx of sales prices for the output sold;

for agriculture & centruction it ts the price irndux of ross output produced.a/ The methodology for calculatinog price indices chuaed in 1981.

PRIIDX: AL.M4S

- 74 -

Tt. 11.2 Potam ftll tPrf Ie*s of Gal V krvf#(1910.100.0)

.................. . ................... ............... . ....... ... . ...... . ......... . ... . ._ . ....... . .... _.......

"M 197 192 IM 1974 1 19WS 1977 1 19 49 I9 1W 1W IR WW te MS NW 1P 1............ . ...... . ............... _._ .... . .. . .. . .... . ........ ......... . . ... . ... . ..... ... . _....... ......Owww Scm b & tA u.o W.9 9W.9 7LT IV.A 1. 18.3 11.1 3.2 14316 157.1 1OA 3. 4. MU. 617.9 7V.3 910.6 157.1roocb IO1.0 99.8 99.7 11.7 110. 113.7 118.9 1.9 13.9 145 "PA MA .4 45.9 .5 636. 748.1 9.9 t41u.SFoUaff tO1O 1O3. 13.4 10.5 109.9 110.5 11. 12i.1 1. 1432 1613 1W.8 40.4 53.0 610.9 101.9 4.4 9.0 1469.8A£lwtctC w 10.0 10.0 1t0.0 10O l2a" IV 2 1V.2 121.2 150.0 14S.9 143 3 02 73. W.? 79.6 9.6 10D.0 19s7.Mtfood 1LO 97.3 9.1 1aO.7 104 11.1 119.9 125.3 13.7 1t 15. 15.0 5 3WJ 461.5 56 669 811.9 15.3sYts 1=.O 1003 10.9 1.8 10.5 1114A 115.0 1M.S 1252 13.814 .w 2.0 M 7.? 419.2 51.L9 6136 .2137.7

r ^ 4mS S= & Ievfm I0.0 1062 10.6 1.4 10.7.? 12 Z7'A 146.3 150A 10A 11 13.9 40.7 0.9 MA .6 .O 7wS Ilw.s180.3Ob C10.0 11.7 10.8 1.9 109.1 110.2 I 148.8 1st5 15.8 140.8 au70 514.1 5M1 602 747.1 W3.3181.1Swvm 100.0 lOt.t 1 103 110.9 11.7t 13.0 137.8 15.7 .4 1A .6 21. 4.2 G 3UI 8103 9321007 9.8

tOtAL IOO.O 1O06 10A4 110.1 100.9 11.2 119.5 IV7.* 136.4 14 1.3 149 .3J47 5$1.1 . 730 917.7146A.3

(w'_ Go" *fi Pro1f" ?w)

r & Ww Goo& & evvim -0.1 0.0 2.8 7.1 3.0 4. 4.9 8a 7.o 9O 212 MU .8. 15.0 5.1 17.7 52 o0.0-02 0.1 3.0 .2 3.3 4. .0 Lr 7 1 99 . 1 1 MA 21.0 1614.0 17.5 1tS .3 53.F,adf 2S 4.1 1.1 6.2 0.5 4.6 7.4 T7 ?A 7. 1 13 1 1 g9 1.6J 2.7 S0.1Alckfe sguM 0.0 0.0 0.0 316 2. 0.0 0.0 17.9 9.9 5.7 QA 9.9 4 5.8 3.9 1.3 3.3 6-2.0 -. 1 5.8 36 6.3 6.0 4.7 73 5.9 8 1.1 3 ZLS 16. 17 3L1 25. 8.Iawew0 OJ O0.1.9 6.5 1.7 32 4.8 L9 6.9 U 8 3 &9 9 .J t MAVA3.9 4290Arcraw £ 8Mm 42 0A 1.7 31 2.3 13.? 14.? 2 3. 52 M.2 13. ta '.1 14. 11 2.0 U.1s.r o.? 0.1 1.0 21i 1.0 1. 1. 1.9 2. 39 1BA 13. 14 10.9 123 1.7 3. T7.SACO 1.1 0.9 3.2 53 5 5A 12.0 5.8A 8o 8. 3.1 13.1 3 213 .7 1. 1.9 5.0

TOTAL OA 0.0 2.7 6.6 3.0 . 6.3 A 6 8.9 212 10.8 3.1 1.0 15.1 1T.7 5.2 40.0e=~._._._...... _...... ....... ........ ._ .. _._ ...... _... . .._ ....... _.. .... _ _. ................ ...... .._Fig= for M GM tPv4efd.Ms 8.

DIU A1.13B