PNPL 2011 Texas

8/3/2019 PNPL 2011 Texas

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FACTSEXASA M E R I C A N S E C U R I T Y P R O J E C T

Pay Now, Pay Later: Texas

A

dmittedly, the eects o climate

change, a complex and intri-cate phenomenon, are dicultto predict with precision. Inormedscientic and economic projections, as we have used in our research, however,allow us to see that exas aces signi-cant losses in industries crucial to itseconomy i no action is taken.

Moreover, data shows that exas ispoised to benet rom the research,development, and distribution o

renewable energy technologies. Forexample, a single acre in West exas(which includes more than 84 millionacres) can produce the energy equiva-lent o 800 barrels o oil annually using solar power.5 Should we ail totake action against climate change,exas residents would have much tolose.

Various climate change models predict a sea level rise o 1 to 3 eet over the nex t 100 years;a sea level rise o 3 eet would wipe out South Padre Island and much o Galveston.1

Damage to homes and buildings aected by hurricane ooding in the Corpus Christi area isexpected to rise 60-100% by 2030 and more than 250% by 2080.2

Texas has more renewable energy potential—via wind, solar, and biomass—than any other

state in the country,3

and is currently the nation’s largest producer o wind energy. Themajority o these renewable resources, however, remain untapped.4

According to a new study, a ailure to mitigate the eects o climate change could beginto cause serious gross domestic product and job losses within the next several decades.Between 2010 and 2050, it could cost Texas $137.8 billion in GDP and over 1 million jobs.*

Pay Later: The Cost o InactionClimate change will introduce hottersummers, longer droughts, and morerequent, intense weather events—suchas hurricanes—to exas. While exasis no stranger to heat or hurricanes,the increased intensity will add to thehigh costs o mitigating their negativeeects.

Costs to the Texas Coastline

Stretching 600-miles,6 the exas coast-line is home to thousands o residentsand wildlie. Nearly a quarter o thestate’s population lives in the countiesalong the Gul o Mexico, wheremuch o the state’s industry is based. More than hal o U.S. chemicaland petroleum production is located on the exas coast, and over 66

million short tons o cargo—valued at more than $25 billion—traversethe 420-mile exas segment o theIntercoastal Waterway each year.7

Additionally, the coastal ecosystemadds more than $12 billion annually to

the exas economy through tourism,shing, and other coastal activities.8

Texas is poised to beneft rom

the research, development, and

distribution o renewable energy

technologies. For example, a single

acre in West Texas (which includes

more than 84 million acres) canproduce the energy equivalent o

800 barrels o oil annually using solar

power.

However, the exas coast is threat-ened by rising sea levels due to climatechange. I we ail to take action tocurb emissions, the Gul Coast sealevel is expected to rise 1 to 3 eet overthe next 100 years. Should the sea level increase by a mere oot, water would cover more than 400 squaremiles o the exas coastline; a three-oot rise would cover around 1,000square miles. (Dallas, by comparison,comprises 380 square miles.) Tecoastline o exas is particularly vulnerable as it sweeps gradually intothe sea, much lying 5 eet or less abovesea level. A sea level rise o 3 eet

*GDP numbers are based on a 0% discount rate. Job losses are measured in labor years, or entire years of fulltime employment. Backus, George et al., “Assessing the Near-erm Risk of Climate Uncertainty:Interdependencies among the U.S. States,” Sandia Report (Sandia National Laboratories, May 2010),141. https://cfwebprod.sandia.gov/cfdocs/CCIM/docs/Climate_Risk_Assessment.pdf (accessed

March 23, 2011).

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would thereore destroy South PadreIsland and much o Galveston.9

Not only would this be a devastatingloss o habitat and homes, but it wouldhave a signicant economic impact as well. Te three-county Galveston Bay region alone has a combined popula-tion o more than 4 million, whocollectively earn $183.2 billion—I sea levels rise by just over two-thirds o a meter, 78% o the region’s house-holds will be displaced while $9.3billion o inrastructure would belost .10

As the climate changes, the exascoast will also become increasingly vulnerable to hurricanes, both rom

increased intensity and lowered protec-tion. Sea level rises would cancel outthe deense provided by the barrierislands and wetlands against thesedevastating storms. Additionally, thesenatural barriers would shrink just asthe severity o hurricanes is expectedto increase, as predicted in mostclimate change models. Hurricaneintensity is projected to increase by about 8% or every 1.8ºF increase insea surace temperature. As a result,hurricane ood levels are projected to rise 3-27% by 2030 (depending on emissions levels) and structuraldamage is predicted to rise anaverage o 60-100%. Under variousclimate change scenarios, damagerom hurricanes later this century areprojected to be signicantly worsethan that caused by 1967’s Hurri-cane Beulah.13 I Hurricane Ike wereto strike in the Galveston Bay area

ollowing a .69 meter rise in sea levelit would equate to $16.8 billion indamage costs—an amount equal toabout two months o state sales taxreceipts.14 Hurricane Rita, in 2009,exceeded this amount.15

Costs to Rural Areas and Wildlie

Te resulting loss o habitat and wildlie could negatively aect the exas tourism industry, whichcontributed around $8.4 billion in2006 through hunting, fshing, and wildlie viewing .16 Tanks to the richvariety o ecosystems present, only

the State o Caliornia boasts a greaternumber o species than exas. Climateis a key determinant in the distribu-tion o all o these species.17 However,changing conditions and harsher weather due to climate change areexpected to damage wildlie, as well asagriculture, orestry, and other indus-tries that are heavily dependent onthe weather and natural environment.Higher temperatures and sea level risehave the potential to change whole

ecosystems and may orce species thatare native to exas, or that migratethere annually, to move to coolerclimates.18

Te $21 billion agriculture and livestock industry 19 is also likely toace hardship as harsher weatherand longer, drier seasons brought by climate change become morerequent . Agricultural regions in westand south exas will likely be most

aected, as water is already relatively scarce in these areas. exas may needto adapt by shiting to crops thatcan withstand the drier conditions.20

Farmers specializing in wheat produc-tion, or example, may be orced tochoose other crops to cultivate. exannet agricultural income could allby 16-29% within the next twodecades.21

A Hot, Hot Metropolis

Climate change promises to introducelonger, hotter, and more requentheat waves over time. While exas isno stranger to blazing hot summers,the increased heat promises to strainhealth and water resources while

Source: Bipartisan Policy Center and the National Commission on Energy Policy

Source: Schmandt et al 11

0 200 400 600

High Estimate 2080s

Middle Estimate 2080s

High Estimate 2030s

Low Estimate 2000s

Historical (2000s)

Millions (2008 $)

Cost of 1967's Hurricane Beulah on

Corpus Christi under Climate Change

Scenarios

25%

Texan Population

Projected to be

Directly Affected

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increasing pollution, particularly incities. For instance, increased heat willonly create more “ozone action” daysthat inevitably lead to an increasednumber o asthma attacks, hospital-izations, and higher health costs.22 Inaddition, Dallas and Houston already suer an average o 28 heat-related deaths annually; this number could shoot up to 60-75 deaths per year with a mere 3ºF increase in averagesummer temperatures.23

Electricity consumption in the stateis closely tied to temperature. It isestimated to cost $21-45 billion rom2000 to 205024—approximately $850-1,800 per person based onthe current population o exas25—constructing new electricity gener-ating capacity to meet the growing

demand.

exas will also nd it increasingly di-cult to manage its reshwater resources.Te competing demands or this basicresource are expected to pose a chal-lenge with or without climate change,as the population o 24.8 million26

—around 85% o whom live in urbanareas—is projected to grow to 34million by 2030. Climate changeis only expected to exacerbate this

problem, as reshwater resources arepredicted to decrease just as the state’sdemand increases.27

Given the more serious threat climatechange poses to sub-tropical regions,a likely increase in Latin Americanmigrants crossing the border willalso place not only a burden on watersupplies, but also exan communities,necessitating, or example, an increasein law enorcement spending.

Pay Now: The Beneftso Taking Action

exas stands to lose part o its tradi-tional income by mitigating the long-term eects o climate change; aterall, the state’s economy is closely tiedto energy development and manuac-turing, both o which are high emis-sions-producing industries. Accordingto one study, exas stands to losebetween 144,597 and 196,928 jobs and$30-41 billion in gross state product in2030 should the state have signicantgreenhouse gas emissions standardsimposed.28

Fortunately, exas is also positionedto benet rom urther developingrenewable energy resources. exas hasmore renewable energy potential— wind, solar, and biomass—than any other state in the country .29 Moreover,though exas has not yet ully tappedinto its potential, there were over55,600 jobs in the green economy in2007.30 exas has the opportunity tomake a signicant impact on globalgreenhouse gas emissions, as it is thelargest emitter o greenhouse gases inthe United States; i it were a country,it would be the seventh-largest emitterin the world.31

exas is already using some o itsrenewable resources, particularly wind

power. With more than 9,410 MW o wind power installed, exas leads thenation in wind energy 32—but with anestimated 1,190 billion kWhs o poten-tial annual wind energy,33 it has plenty o untapped wind resources. Renew-able resources other than wind remainvirtually unexploited, despite the vastresources available—especially solarpower.34 Te solar energy on a singleacre o West exas land can producethe energy equivalent o 800 barrelso oil annually .35

exas has 4,300 quads per year avail-able o potential solar energy (or 250quads per year based on currently available technologies).36 One quad o

energy is sucient to serve the annualenergy needs o around three millionpeople.37

Additionally, exas enjoys abundantbiomass energy resources, thanks to itshealthy agricultural and orestry indus-tries. Without conficting with ood oreed production, biomass could providearound 15% o the state’s demand orliquid uel.38

Conclusionexas must consider action on climatechange not just in terms o cost, butin terms o opportunities. I we giveexas’ population, businesses, andinvestors clear and consistent signalsby properly oering initiatives and

cultivating demand, investment andinnovation in renewable technologies will ollow.

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exans will have to pay or the eects o climate change. Te only remaining question is whether they will pay now, orpay later and run the risk o paying signicantly more.

(Endnotes)

1 Ramon Alvarez, Mary Sanger, Colin Rowan and Lisa Moore, Fair Warning: Global Warming and the Lone Star State , EnvironmentalDeense Fund, May 2006, 11. http://www.ed.org/documents/5254_FairWarning.pd (accessed June 28, 2010).

2 Bipartisan Policy Center and the National Commission on Energy Policy, Climate Change and the Economy: Expected Impacts and their Implications , 20. http://masgc.org/climate/cop/Documents/Climate%20Change%20and%20Te%20Economy%20-%20Expected%20Impacts%20and%20Teir%20Implications.pd (accessed July 12, 2010).

3 State Energy Conservation Oce, Renewable Energy Resources for exas . http://www.infnitepower.org/newact/new96-812-No07.pd (accessed July 7, 2010).

4 Kate Galbraith, “Wind Energy Outruns Other Alternatives,” Te exas ribune , March 23, 2010. http://www.texastribune.org/texas-state-agencies/public-utility-commission/wind-energy-outruns-other-alternative-sources/ (accessed July 7, 2010).

5 State Energy Conservation Oce, exas Solar Energy . http://www.seco.cpa.state.tx.us/re_solar.htm (accessed July 7, 2010);Hearing beore the Committee on Agriculture House o Representatives, One Hundred Eight Congress, Committee on Agriculture, June 25, 2003, 57. http://agriculture.house.gov/hearings/108/10811.pd (accessed July 29, 2010).

6 exas Almanac, exas’ Natural Environment . http://www.texasalmanac.com/environment/ (accessed June 30, 2010).

7 Jared Hazleton, “Economy,” in Te Impact of Global Warming on exas , ed., Jurgen Schmandt, Judith Clarkson, and Gerald R. North(Austin: University o exas Press, 2009), 9. http://www.texasclimate.org/Home/ImpactoGlobalWarmingonexas/tabid/481/Deault.aspx (accessed June 30, 2010).

8 Alvarez et al., 11.

9 Ibid.

10 David W. Yoskowitz, James Gibeaut, and Ali McKenzie, Te Socio-Economic Impact of Sea Level Rise in the Galveston Bay Region , June 2009, 21, 24. http://www.ed.org/documents/9901_EDF_Sea_Level_Rise_Report.pd (accessed September 24, 2010).

11 While coastal exas makes up only 7.2% o its total, it is home to 25% o the population. Jurgen Schmandt, Judith Clarkson, andGerald R. North, Ed., Te Impact of Global Warming on exas , Chapter 9: Economy, 2nd Edition. (Austin: University o exas Press,2009).


13 Bipartisan Policy Center and the National Commission on Energy Policy, 19-20.

14 Yoskowitz et a l., 26.

15 Center or American Progress and Te Hub, Te Economics of Clean Energy in exas , October 6, 2009, 3. http://images2.american-progress.org/CAP/2009/10/hub/EconomicsCleanEnergy_X.pd (accessed November 18, 2010).

16 National Wildlie Federation, Global Warming and exas , February 2, 2009, 2. http://www.nw.org/Global-Warming/~/media/PDFs/Global%20Warming/Global%20Warming%20State%20Fact%20Sheets/exas.ashx (accessed July 7, 2010).

17 Jane Packard, “Biodiversity,” in Te Impact of Global Warming on exas , 1-2.

18 National Wildlie Federation, 1.

19 Oce o the Governor, exas Agriculture and Livestock Industry Overview , Spring 2010. http://www.governor.state.tx.us/fles/ecodev/profleagriculture.pd (accessed July 7, 2010).


21 Center or American Progress and Te Hub, 3.

22 Ibid., 7.

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23 Union o Concerned Scientists, exas State Findings from Confronting Climate Change in the Gulf Coast Region, October 2001, 3.http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/global_warming/acq3gplv.pd (accessed July 7, 2010).

24 Hazleton, 7.

25 U.S. Census Bureau, exas , April 22, 2010. http://quickacts.census.gov/qd/states/48000.html (accessed July 30, 2010).

26 Ibid.

27 Union o Concerned Scientists, 2.

28 exas Public Policy Foundation, Te exas Economy: How Would Climate Change Legislation Impact Economic Growth and Jobs? ,February 2010. http://www.texaspolicy.com/pd/2010-Waxman-Markey-FactSheet.pd (accessed July 7, 2010).

29 State Energy Conservation Oce, Renewable Energy Resources for exas .

30 Center or American Progress and Te Hub, 1.


32 Galbraith.

33 American Wind Energy Association, Wind Energy: An Untapped Resource . http://www.awea.org/pubs/actsheets/Wind_Energy_ An_Untapped_Resource.pd (accessed June 28, 2010).

34 Galbraith.35 State Energy Conservation Oce, exas Solar Energy .

36 State Energy Conservation Oce, exas Renewable Energy Resource Assessment Executive Summary , December 2008, x. http://www.seco.cpa.state.tx.us/publications/renewenergy/pd/executivesummary.pd (accessed July 7, 2010).

37 State Energy Conservation Oce, exas Solar Energy .

38 State Energy Conservation Oce, exas Renewable Energy Resource Assessment Executive Summary , xiii.