PNPL 2011 Alabama

8/3/2019 PNPL 2011 Alabama

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FACTS ALABAMA A M E R I C A N S E C U R I T Y P R O J E C T

Pay Now, Pay Later: Alabama

A

dmittedly, the eects o climate

change, a complex and intri-cate phenomenon, are dicult

to predict with precision. Inormedscientic and economic projections, as we have used in our research, however,allow us to see that Alabama acessignicant losses in industries crucialto its economy i no action is taken.

Moreover, data shows Alabama ispoised to benet rom the research,development, and distribution o

renewable energy technologies. Although Alabama possesses signi-cant coal and natural gas deposits,roughly 25% o its electricity comesrom nuclear power. It is also one o the largest hydroelectric producers easto the Rockies,5 and is only begin-ning to exploit its tremendous biouelcapacity.6 Should we ail to take actionagainst climate change, Alabamanshave much to lose.

Climate change puts Alabama’s extraordinary biodiversity at risk, threatening the naturalwealth that enriches both the state’s beauty and its bottom line.1

Over one in eight employed Alabamans work in an industry sensitive to climate change.2

Alabama generates a signicant portion o its electricity rom nuclear and renewablesources, and has the capacity to generate substantially more renewable energy3—and

jobs.4

According to a new study, a ailure to mitigate the efects o climate change could beginto cause serious gross domestic product and job losses within the next several decades.Between 2010 and 2050, it could cost Alabamans $29.2 billion in GDP and over 246,000

jobs.*

Pay Later: The Cost o Inaction Ask twenty Alabamans what’s mostdistinct about their state, and you may well hear twenty dierent answers. Alabama’s landscape rolls rom moun-tains to coastline, with distinctiveecoregions such as Blackland Prairieand Lime Hills in between.7 It has asaltwater coast, roughly 1,300 mileso navigable inland waterways,8 and

prots rom shrimping and oysteringin the zones where saltwater andreshwater meet.9 Alabama is rich inorests10 and armland,11 and boastsa diverse economy.12 Climate changeputs many o Alabama’s belovedeatures in danger, and as one scientisthas noted, its “uture will be, mostlikely, ar dierent rom the past.”13 Most at risk are Alabama’s extraordi-nary biodiversity, jobs sensitive to

climate change, and residents’ quality o lie.

Less Temperate, More Tropical

Alabama harbors incredible biodiversity, ranking 4th14 or 5th15 among states and 2nd only to Florida inthe number o species per squaremile.16 Te combination o geologicaldiversity and regular precipitationpatterns makes Alabama somethingo a miniature, extraordinarily biodi-verse version o the entire Southeast.17

Together, agriculture, orestry,and wildlie-related industries in

Alabama account or approximately $20 billion annually,18 or roughly 12% o gross state product (GSP).19

Alabama is rich in orests and

armland, and boasts a diversied

economy. Climate change puts

many o Alabama’s beloved eatures

in danger, and as one scientist has

noted, its uture will be, most likely,

ar diferent rom the past.”

Alabama’s coastal regions are projectedto get warmer and drier, putting allcurrent crops at risk and dramatically increasing the need or irrigation; Alabama currently has the ewest irri-

*GDP numbers are based on a 0% discount rate. Job losses are measured in labor years, or entire years o ulltime employment. Backus, George et al., “Assessing the Near-erm Risk o Climate Uncertainty:Interdependencies among the U.S. States,” Sandia Report (Sandia National Laboratories, May 2010),141. https://cfwebprod.sandia.gov/cfdocs/CCIM/docs/Climate_Risk_Assessment.pdf (accessed

March 23, 2011).



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gated acres in the country.20 Althoughthe state may nd conditions increas-ingly avorable or cotton, corn, andnew citrus crops, traditional avoritesincluding peaches, apples, soybeans,and wheat will suer. More pesticidesand herbicides will also be requiredunder any projected scenario.21

Harder hit would be Alabama’s orests.Climate models disagree as to whetherinland Alabama would get wetter ordrier, but neither bodes well or theLoblolly Pine, a workhorse tree in Alabama’s managed pine orests.22 A drier uture would convert someorests into grasslands and increaseorest res, while a wetter one wouldattract more pests and avor hard- woods over sotwoods.23 Also likely to

suer, and enjoyed by over 2.3 millionpeople, would be hunting, shing,and wildlie viewing,24 which heavily depend on the state’s biodiversity.

A Job Drought

Alabama’s population is expected to increase by some 700,000 peopleby 2025,25 but jobs may not grow as quickly . In act, there’s much

to suggest that climate change willdepress employment in some key stateindustries—at least 261,000 Alabama jobs may be threatened by climatechange.26 Agriculture and wildlie-related industries collectively supportover 102,000 jobs,27 with nearly 33,000 more in orest-related wood,paper, and urniture manuacturingbusinesses.28 Yet they are ar rom theonly potentially aected industries.

Alabama alls within the Gul Coastregion’s integrated network o roads,ports, and rail lines;29 wholesale trade,transportation and warehousingaccount or over 126,500 jobs state- wide.30 Yet the Union o ConcernedScientists notes that “27% o the major

roads, 9% o the rail lines, and 72%o the ports” within the region are

built at or below the level reached by a potential our-oot rise in sea level,and estimates that “60,000 miles o coastal highway are already exposedto periodic fooding rom coastalstorms and high waves.”31 Even i the worst-aected roads are not located in Alabama, the interconnectedness o the network threatens its economy.

Less Sweet Home, Alabama

Despite the signicant challenges to Alabama’s landscape and industry

rom climate change, some o themost elt eects will be those stainingshirts and straining air condi-

tioners. According to the Union o Concerned Scientists, by century’send summer temperatures could increase by 3-7°F, with the July heat index—a determination o how it “eels” when temperatureand humidity are combined—10-25°F higher.32 Since Alabama already averages 80°F in mid-summer,33 inthe uture it could eel 90°F or hotterevery day during the summer.

Alabama will be vulnerable to heat waves, particularly in major cities suchas Birmingham, Montgomery, andMobile. Increased ground level ozoneand smog could become persistenthealth hazards or urban residents incities (such as Birmingham) where airquality already ails to meet ederalstandards. Industrial, agricultural, andresidential competition or resh watercould threaten supplies, while increas-ingly requent extreme precipitation

events would contribute to contami-nated runo and disease transmis-sion.34 Tese changes could alsointerrupt the predictability o work and home lie.

Source: Alabama Department o Industrial Relations

Sources: U.S. Energy Inormation Administration, State Energy Proles: Alabama; National Climatic Data Center

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

Billions ($)

The Threat of Stronger Storms: Average

Cost by Hurricane Category v. Alabama

GSP

Category 2: Hurricanes Ike & Gustav, $16 billion

Category 3: Ivan, Dennis, Rita & Katrina, $42.1 billion

Alabama GSP, $170 billion (2008)

Alabaman Labor

Force Projected tobe Directly Affected

14%





O the 70 natural disasters that caused $1 billion or more in damage in the UnitedStates between 1980 and October 2007, at least 21 o them aected Alabama,35 including two Category 2 hurricanes and six Category 3 hurricanes.36 A recent reportnotes that with climate change in the Southeast, the “intensity, power, and destructiveenergy… o hurricanes is likely to increase.”37 Tat is signicant, since more powerulstorms have been shown to cause, on average, ar greater damage.38 Rising sea levels willalso exacerbate damaging storm surges; mid-range projections anticipate a sea level riseo up to 15 inches by 2100.39

Pay Now: The Benets o Taking Action Alabamans have the opportunity to take important and benecial steps to combatclimate change. Demanding that renewable energy sources constitute at least 20% o electricity generation by 2020 is a good and readily achievable start.40 Alabama couldalso spearhead implementation o available technologies to reduce demand by 20-30%by 2020.41 Alabama already supports nearly 8,000 jobs in clean energy and relatedindustries,42 and could gain nearly 30,000 more rom a major clean energy initiative.43 Biomass is extremely promising in Alabama;44 it has one o the world’s largest solidbiouel actories—with a capacity to produce 520,000 metric tons o wood pellets—butmost o its production is currently shipped overseas.45

rees can play an important role in this heavily orested state, rom homeowners reducing residential energy consumptionby planting strategically placed trees,46 to the replacement o Loblolly Pines with Longlea Pines, a more drought- and re-resistant species.47 Investment in biouel research can also pay dividends, since parts o Alabama are avorable or switch-grass, which can be cultivated or biouel.48

Conclusion Alabama must consider action on climate change not just in terms o cost, but also in terms o opportunities. I we give

Alabama’s population, businesses, and investors clear and consistent signals by properly oering initiatives and cultivatingdemand, investment and innovation in renewable technologies will ollow.

Alabamans will have to pay or the eects o climate change. Te only remaining question is whether they will pay now,or pay later and run the risk o paying signicantly more.

(Endnotes)

1 Alabama Department o Industrial Relations, “Employees in Nonagricultural Industries in Alabama,” Alabama Labor Market News, August 2010. http://www2.dir.state.al.us/ces/deault.aspx (accessed September 1, 2010).

2 Detailed below in “A Job Drought.” Ibid.

3 National Wildlie Federation, Global Warming and Alabama, January 20, 2009, 2. http://www.nw.org/Global-Warming/~/media/PDFs/Global%20Warming/Global%20Warming%20State%20Fact%20Sheets/Alabama.ashx (accessed August 3, 2010);National Wildlie Federation, Charting a New Path or Alabama’s Electricity Generation and Use , 2008, 1-2. http://www.nw.org/Global-Warming/~/media/PDFs/Global%20Warming/Clean%20Energy%20State%20Fact%20Sheets/ALABAMA_10-22.ashx (accessed August 3, 2010).





4 National Wildlie Federation, Charting a New Path; Robert Pollin, James Heintz, and Heidi Garrett-Peltier, Te Economic Benets o Investing in Clean Energy , Political Economy Research Institute, University o Massachusetts, Amherst and Center or AmericanProgress, June 2009, 2, 5. http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2009/06/pd/peri_report.pd (accessed August 2, 2010).

5 U.S. Energy Inormation Administration, State Energy Proles: Alabama, 2010. http://www.eia.doe.gov/state/state_energy_profles.cm?sid=AL (accessed August 3, 2010).

6 Ibid.; National Wildlie Federation, Global Warming and Alabama; National Wildlie Federation, Charting a New Path.

7 L. J. Davenport, Climate Change and its Potential Efects on Alabama’s Plant Lie , Vulcan Materials Center or Environmental Stew-ardship and Education, 2007, 16, 20. http://www.orestry.state.al.us/Carbon/Davenport_CLIMATECHANGE2007%20&%20Impact%20to%20AL%20Plants.pd (accessed August 3, 2010).

8 Economic Development Partnership o Alabama, Alabama Business Climate , 2008, 4. http://www.edpa.org/docs/Business-Climate-Facts-2008.pd (accessed August 3, 2010).

9 Robert willey and Robert Wetzel, Alabama: State Findings rom Conronting Climate Change in the Gul Coast Region: Prospects or Sustaining Our Ecological Heritage , 2001, 4. http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/global_warming/acugueu.pd (accessed July 28, 2010).

10 Ibid., 3.

11 U.S. Department o Agriculture, State Fact Sheets: Alabama, July 30, 2010. http://www.ers.usda.gov/StateFacts/AL.HTM (accessed August 3, 2010).

12 Economic Development Partnership o Alabama, 3.

13 Davenport.

14 Ibid., 8.

15 willey and Wetzel, 3.

16 Davenport, 8.

17 Ibid., 9.

18 National Wildlie Federation, Global Warming and Alabama, 2; willey and Wetzel, 3; U.S. Department o Agriculture, State Fact Sheets: Alabama, July 30, 2010. http://www.ers.usda.gov/StateFacts/AL.HTM (accessed August 3, 2010).

19 Caitlin E. Coakley, Daniel A. Reed and Shane . aylor, Gross Domestic Product by State: Advance Statistics or 2008 and Revised Statistics or 2005–2007 , Survey o Current Business, Bureau o Economic Analysis, June 2009. http://www.bea.gov/scb/pd/2009/06%20June/0609_gdp_state.pd (accessed August 3, 2010). Alabama’s 2008 GSP was $170 billion, o which $20 billionrepresents 11.8%.

20 Davenport, 6, 55.

21 Ibid, 56-57.

22 Ibid., 61.

23 willey and Wetzel, 2-3.

24 National Wildlie Federation, Global Warming and Alabama.


26 Includes the labor orce employed by the agriculture and wildlie-related industries, orest-related businesses, manuacturers, andthe wholesale and transportation sectors; it represents 13.76% o the workorce, based on 1,882,622 Alabamans employed as o June2010 (seasonally adjusted). Alabama Department o Industrial Relations.

27 Tis number assumes one employee per Alabaman arm. U.S. Department o Agriculture; National Wildlie Federation, Global Warming and Alabama.





28 Alabama Department o Industrial Relations.

29 Union o Concerned Scientists, Backgrounder: Southeast , 2009. http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/global_warming/us-global-climate-change-reportsoutheast.pd (accessed August 3, 2010).

30 Alabama Department o Industrial Relations, 4-5.

31 Union o Concerned Scientists, 4.


33 Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Average Mean emperature Index by Month.http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/usclimate/tmp.state.19712000.climo (accessed August 3, 2010). Alabama’s mean tempera-tures or June, July, and August rom 1971–2000 are, respectively, 76.75°F, 79.87°F, and 79.04°F. Based on this data, the lowestexpected heat index premium (10°F) would be expected to increase the mean “eel” to 86.75°F to 89.87°F—likely higher in daytimeand lower at night.

34 willey and Wetzel, 2-3.

35 Center or Integrative Environmental Research, University o Maryland, Regional Highlight: Southeast , October 2007, 1. http:// www.cier.umd.edu/documents/Southeast-Economic%20Impacts%20o%20Climate%20Change.pd (accessed July 28, 2010).

36 National Climatic Data Center, Billion Dollar U.S. Weather Disasters , February 2010. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/reports/billionz.html (accessed July 28, 2010) (storm damages in 2007 dollars).

37 Tomas Wilbanks et al., Climate Change Impacts in the Southeastern United States: Drat Discussion Paper , Battelle Memorial Insti-tute, January 26, 2010, 8. http://www.tennessean.com/assets/pd/DN161153721.PDF(accessed August 3, 2010).

38 Tis averages the estimated damages (in 2007 dollars) o the six hurricanes striking Alabama and elsewhere in the Southeastbetween September 2004 and September 2008, using gures rom National Climatic Data Center, Billion Dollar U.S. Weather Disasters .


40 National Wildlie Federation, Charting a New Path, 1.

41 Ibid.

42 Pew Environment Group, Te Clean Energy Economy: Alabama, 2009. http://www.pewglobalwarming.org/cleanenergyeconomy/actsheets/Clean_Economy_Factsheet_Alabama.pd (accessed August 3, 2010).

43 Pollin et al, 60.

44 National Wildlie Federation, Global Warming and Alabama, 2; National Wildlie Federation, Charting a New Path, 2; U.S.Energy Inormation Administration, State Energy Proles: Alabama.

45 Burning wood or uel is a centuries old practice, currently making up 2% o American total energy use. While wood pelletcombustion does release carbon monoxide and other particulates, sometimes producing acid rain, it is still superior to the burning o ossil uel, and clean-burning technology is available. Burning wood waste also saves companies money they would otherwise haveto spend on purchasing electricity. U.S. Energy Inormation Administration, Renewable Biomass . http://www.eia.doe.gov/kids/energy.cm?page=biomass_home-basics (accessed September 23, 2010). Ibid.

46 National Wildlie Federation, Global Warming and Alabama, 2.

47 Davenport, 61.

48 U.S. Energy Inormation Administration, State Energy Proles: Alabama.

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PNPL 2011 Alabama