PMP Lecture 6

7/25/2019 PMP Lecture 6

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AUC TechnologiesConsulting | Development | Mentoring | Training

Project Management With PMP Exam Preparation


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Agenda

Estimate Activity Duration

Estimate Cost

Develop Schedule

Determine Budget


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Duration includes the actual amount of time worked on an

activitypluselapsed time

Effort is the number of workdays or work hours required to

complete a task

Effort does not normally equal duration

Est imat ing the number of wo rk per iods that wi l l be needed

to com plete indiv idual sch edule act iv i t ies.


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1. Activity list

2. Activity attributes

3. Activity resource

requirements

4. Resource

calendars5. Project scope

statement

6. Enterprise

environmental

factors

7. Organizationalprocess assets

1. Expert Judgment

2. Analogous

Estimation

3. Parametric

Estimation

4. Three Point

Estimates

5. Reserve Analysis

1. Activity Duration

Estimation

2. Project Document

Updates

Input Output

Tools


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Analogous Vs Parametric Estimation

Using the actual duration of a previous similar schedule

activity as the basis for estimating the duration of a future

schedule activity

It uses historical information and expert judgment

Multiplying the quantity of work to be performed be the

productivity rate

Analogous Estimation

Parametric Estimation


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Three-Point Estimates

Instead of providing activity estimates as a discrete number,

such as four weeks, its often helpful to create a three-point

estimate

an estimate that includes an optimistic, most likely, and

pessimistic estimate, such as three weeks for the

optimistic, four weeks for the most likely, and five weeks for

the pessimistic estimate

(Optimistic + Pessimistic +( 4 * Most Likely )) / 6


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Estimate Cost

Project managers must take cost estimates seriously if they

want to complete projects within budget constraints

Its important to know the types of cost estimates, how to

prepare cost estimates, and typical problems associated with IT

cost estimates

Developing an approximat ion o f the costs o f the resou rces

needed to complete pro ject act iv i t ies


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EstimateCost

1. Scope Baseline

2. Project Schedule3. Human Resource Plan

4. Risk Register

5. Enterprise

environment factors

6. Organizational

process assets

1. Expert Judgment

2. Analogous

estimation

3. Parametricestimation

4. Bottom-up

estimation

5. Three Point

Estimate

6. Reserve Analysis7. Cost of quality

8. Project Management

estimating Software

9. Vendor bid analysis

1.Activity cost

estimates

2. Basis of estimates

3. Project document

updated

Input Output

Tools


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Types of Cost Estimates

Rough order

of magnitude

(ROM)

Generally made early in the

project. Developed without

benefit of detailed data and

often based on historical data,

expert judgment, or a costingmodel.

50 percent

Budgetary Often used for appropriation

purposes.

10 percent

Definitiveestimate (or

control or

detailed)

Based on detailed informationabout the project work.

Developed by estimating the

cost for each work package in

the WBS.

5 percent


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Estimate Costs Tools and Techniques

Basic tools and techniques for cost estimates:

Analogous or top-down estimates: use the actual cost of a

previous, similar project as the basis for estimating the cost

of the current project

Bottom-up estimates: involve estimating individual work

items or activities and summing them to get a project total

Parametric modeling uses project characteristics in a

mathematical model to estimate project costs


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Develop Schedule

Ultimate goal is to create a realistic project schedule that

provides a basis for monitoring project progress for the time

dimension of the project

Important tools and techniques include Gantt charts, critical path

analysis, and critical chain scheduling, and PERT analysis

Analyzing act iv i ty sequences, du rat ions, resource

requirements , and schedule con straints to c reate the

pro ject schedu le.


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Develop Schedule

1. Activity List

2. Activity Attributes

3. Schedule Network

Diagram

4. Activity Resource

requirements5. Resource calendars

6. Activity Duration

Estimates

7. Project Scope

Statement

8. EnterpriseEnvironmental Factor

9. Organizational

Process Asset

1. Schedule network

analysis

2. Critical Path method

3. Critical chain method4. Resource leveling

5. What-if scenario

analysis

6. Applying leads and

lags

7. Schedulecompression

8. Scheduling tool

1. Project Schedule

2. Schedule baseline

3. Schedule data

4. Project document

updates

Input

Output

Tools


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Critical Path Method (CPM)

CPM is a network diagramming technique used to predict total

project duration

A critical path for a project is the series of activities that

determines the earliest possible timeby which the project

can be completed

The critical path is the longest paththrough the network

diagram and has the least amount of slack or float

Slack or float is the amount of time an activity may be delayed

without delaying a succeeding activity


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Determining the Critical Path


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Standard Diagramming Notation


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Notation & Description

ES Early start. The earliest time an activity can start. The ES of the first

activity in a network diagram is zero. The ES of all other activities is

the latest early finish (EF) of any predecessor activities

EF Early finish. The earliest time an activity can finish. The EF for the

first activity is the same as its duration. For all other activities, EF is

the latest EF of all of an activity's predecessor activities plus itsduration.

LF Late finish. The latest time an activity can finish. The LF for the last

activity is the same as its EF time. The LF for any predecessor

activity is the earliest LS of any of its successor activities.

LS Late start. The latest time an activity can start. The LS for the lastactivity is its EF minus its duration. The LS for any predecessor

activity is its LF minus its duration.

DU Duration. The number of work periods required for completion of an

activity


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Free Float And Total Float

The amount of time an activity can be delayed without

delaying the ES of any activity that immediately follows it is

Known as free float

Total Float is the amount of time an activity can be delayed

From its ES without delaying the project finish date

Free Float

Total Float


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Identify Critical Path


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Critical Path to Shorten a Project Schedule

Two main techniques for shortening schedules are

Shortening durations of critical activities/tasks by adding

more resources or changing their scope

Crashing activities by obtaining the greatest amount of

schedule compression for the least incremental cost

Fast trackingactivities by doing them in parallel or

overlapping them


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Crashing and Fast Tracking

Overlapped

Tasks or fast

tracking

Shortened

duration thru

crashing

Original

schedule


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Critical Chain Scheduling

Critical chain scheduling

a method of scheduling that considers limited resources

when creating a project schedule and includes buffers to

protect the project completion date

Uses the Theory of Constraints (TOC)

Attempts to minimize multitasking when a resource works

on more than one task at a time


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Buffers and Critical Chain

A buffer is additional time to complete a task

Murphys Lawstates that if something can go wrong, it will

Parkinsons Law states that work expands to fill the time allowed


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Buffers and Critical Chain

In traditional estimates, people often add a buffer to each task

and use it if its needed or not

Critical chain scheduling removes buffers from individual tasks

and instead creates

aproject bufferor additional time added before the projects

due date

feeding buffersor additional time added before tasks on the

critical path


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Critical Chain Scheduling Example


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Determine Budget

Determine budge involves allocating the project cost estimate

to individual work items over time

Important goal is to produce a cost baseline

a time-phased budget that project managers use to

measure and monitor cost performance

Aggregat ing the est imated costs of ind iv idual act iv i t ies or

work packages to establ ish a cos t baseline


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Determine Budget

1. Activity cost

estimates

2. Basis of estimates

3. Project Schedule4. Resource Calendars

5. Contracts

6. Organizational

Process Assets

1. Cost aggregation

2. Reserve Analysis

3. Expert Judgment

4. Historical

relationships

5. Funding limit

reconciliation

1.Cost Performance

baseline

2.Project Funding

Requirements

3.Project document

updates

InputOutput

Tools


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Cost Baseline

A cost baseline is a time-phased budget that will monitor and

measure cost performance throughout the project life cycle. It is

developed by adding the estimated costs of project

components by period.

The cost baseline typically includes a budget contingency to

accommodate the risk of incurring unidentifiable, but normally

occurring costs, within the defined scope.


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Cost Assignment Methods

0/100 Percent Rule

50/50 Percent Rule

Percentage Complete Rule

Weighted Milestones


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Questions

Documents

PMP Lecture 6