Planning for Connected and Automated Vehicles Jeremy Raw, PE Federal Highway Administration Office of Planning, Systems Planning and Analysis Team September

2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 1

Planning for Connected and Automated Vehicles

Jeremy Raw, PEFederal Highway Administration

Office of Planning, Systems Planning and Analysis TeamSeptember 15, 2015


Performance-Based Planning




• Definitions• Making Plans• What Comes Next• Retooling

Overview


“The beginning of wisdomis the definition of terms.”

― Socrates

Definitions


• Connected Vehicles– Communicate directly (car knows first)– See over hills and around corners (“invisible” data)– Optimized information

• Automated Vehicles– Car knows what to do– Car just does it

Definitions:Connected <> Automated


• Everything necessary is “on board”• Sensors• Maps• Algorithms• No special needs (infrastructure, supportive tech)

– Really?

Definitions:Autonomous Vehicles


• Not necessarily autonomous– Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control (CACC)

• Car uses specialized data to situate itself• Car responds automatically• Reliance on “Enabling Technologies”• Reduced driver involvement

Definitions:Connected Automation


• Safety– Crash avoidance

• Mobility– Improve quality of driving experience– Allow non-drivers to participate

• Environment / Sustainability– Reduce resource consumption– Reduce pollution

Benefits of CV (and AV?)


• Level 0 – Notify the driver• Level 1 – One dimensional control• Level 2 – Multifunction coordination• Level 3 – Limited driver disengagement • Level 4 – “No steering wheel”

NHTSA Automation Levels


• Oriented toward "human factors“– What does each level mean for the driver?

• Not a straight line of development– Level 3 is not a prerequisite for Level 4

• Each level poses unique challenges– For engineers, and also for planners

Levels of Automation (NHTSA)


• USDOT– ITS Joint Program Office (ITS JPO)– FHWA• R&D, Safety, Operations, Planning Offices

– NHTSA• Hardware mandates• Safety ramifications

– FTA• Transit automation

CV/AV Champions: Public / USDOT


• OEMs ("Car Companies")– Cool technology sells cars– CAMP - Collision Avoidance Metrics

Partnership (FHWA Participates)• Non-traditional partners– Google, Tesla, Apple, Uber…

CV/AV Champions: Private


“The plan … tries on reality to see if it fits.”- Laurence Gonzales

Making Plans


• What to build– or not to build

• When to build it– Prioritization– Level of effort and investment

Planning Challenges


• "Building a better today, tomorrow“

• However:– Increasingly complex circumstances– Increasingly uncertain developments– No “straight line” from today to tomorrow

• Plus– New Priorities

Learning from the pastto create the future


• What do we need to know?• What do we currently know?• How to address the knowledge gap?• What is the necessary time horizon?

Planning Challenges: Questions


• Initial applications (especially automation)– Championed by OEMs– Market will determine what happens

• Do we know enough to intervene effectively?– Enlisting cooperation?– Mandatory enforcement?

The case for doing nothing


• System does not operate effectively

• Wasted opportunities for improvement

• Spending on obsolete/irrelevant facilities

The problem with doing nothing


• Forthcoming deployment guidance• New infrastructure investment (ITS+)• Bi-directional information flow– Gather roadway performance information

• Roadside beacons– e.g. ice/weather, incidents– Better positioning than available by GPS

V2I Deployment


If we wait until we've satisfied all the uncertainties, it may be too late.

- Lee Iacocca

What Comes Next


• A new “value proposition”• People learn new ways of behaving,

living, and moving• Food for thought:– Young people getting driver license later– Reduced VMT per capita (“peak travel”)– Rise of “shared transportation”

Disruptive Technology


• Operating in Mixed Traffic• Dedicated Facilities• Digital Infrastructure• Automated Transit

Future Scenarios


Scenario: Mixed Traffic

TheOatmeal.Com




• Moving in traffic is a “conversation”

• Automated vehicles vs. “entrepreneurs”

• Connected Vehicles as traffic probes



• Connected Vehicle Managed Lanes– Increases effective fleet penetration– Relatively little new infrastructure– Increases incentive for adoption

• However– Equitable resource allocation (lane access)– Discharge capacity

Scenario: Dedicated Facilities


Scenario: Digital Infrastructure


• Who manages the “electronic map”?– Public or private

• “Autonomy” is probably an illusion– Connectivity is still implied– Real battle: connected with who or what?– Automated vehicle “help line” vs TMC





• Automated Neighborhood Transit• Demand responsive– Look up schedule vs. book a ride

• Transit provision and taxi-like services

• Mass transit versus personal transit

Scenario: Automated Transit


• Waze and Local Road Use– Repurposing existing facilities

• New physical requirements– AV “safe havens”

• Liability and Responsibility– Mandating driver/vehicle conformity

Shadows on the Horizon


• The Third Dimension– Parcel-packing drones– Leaving from where?

• “Zero-Occupant” vehicles – Who manages where they go or park?

Shadows on the Horizon


“You can't predict the future,but you can plan for it.”

- Saji Ijiyemi

Retooling


• Planning is part of “site preparation”

• “Railroading”• Robert Moses

The Way Things Used to Be


• Private railroads and public sector• The future of urban interstates

• “Championship” versus public process

Revisiting the Battlefields


• The old paradigm:– Planning, Environment, Realty– We already know what we need to do– “Clearing the Way”

• The new paradigm– We have evolving ideas of what we want– Not at all clear how to get there– Desire outpaces reality

What do Planners Do?








• What do we want?• How do we measure it?• Where are we now?• How do we move toward our targets?



• An “agile” process• Redefine and redevelop as we learn• Relevant to Connectivity & Automation– New data sources (V2I)– Feedback to goals and objectives– “How are we doing?”



• Planning tools rely on lots of assumptions– What goes in– What comes out (and what it means)– What happens inside

• Our favorite assumptions are easily broken– Or at least rendered irrelevant– For example: HCM signal methodology

• Behavioral parameters are shifting

Planning for Disruption


• What is out there?• How is it performing?• How do we account for what we see?– “Statistical Noise”?– “Market Correction”?– “Structural Shift”?

New Questions for New Data


• Models are tools for thinking– Test assumptions and interpretations– Evaluate rather than predict

• Focus more on what goes in– Including the assumptions!

• Focus less on what comes out– Comparisons are worth more than Forecasts

“Defensive” Modeling


• Scenario planning:– “What if we aimed for Future X?”

• Feasibility:– “Is it possible?”– “What would it take to get there?”

• Costs and Benefits:– “Can we afford it?”

• Reality check:– “What’s really happening now?”

Modeling Connected and Automated Vehicles


• Expect to plan for an uncertain future• Aim high and adjust as necessary• Invest in “enabling technologies”– Forthcoming V2I deployment guidance

• Think carefully about your assumptions• Use models “defensively”

Final Words


• Forthcoming FHWA resources– Vehicle to Infrastructure Deployment

Guidance and associated resources (forthcoming, 10/2015)

– Planning Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles, (forthcoming, Fall 2015)

Resources


Planning for Connected and Automated Vehicles



Documents

Planning for Connected and Automated Vehicles Jeremy Raw, PE Federal Highway Administration Office of Planning, Systems Planning and Analysis Team September