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PISA 2009 - Warsaw - Poland 10 of February 2011
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Strong performers and successful reformers
Andreas Schleicher Special advisor to the Secretary-General on Education Policy
Head of the Indicators and Analysis Division, EDU
Programme for International Student Assessment
The yardstick for success is no longer improvement by national standards alone but the best performing education systems
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1998 PISA countries in 2000 2001 2003 2006 2009 77% 81% 83% 85% 86% Coverage of world economy 87%
PISA 2009 in brief
Over half a million students… representing 28 million 15-year-olds in 74* countries/economies
… took an internationally agreed 2-hour test… Goes beyond testing whether students can
reproduce what they were taught…
… to assess students’ capacity to extrapolate from what they know and creatively apply their knowledge in novel situations
… and responded to questions on… their personal background, their schools
and their engagement with learning and school
Parents, principals and system leaders provided data on… school policies, practices, resources and institutional factors
that help explain performance differences . * Data for Costa Rica, Georgia, India, Malaysia, Malta, Mauritius, Venezuela and Vietnam will be published in December 2011
40
45
50
55
60
65
1960 1970 1980 1990 2002
Routine manual
Nonroutine
manual
Routine cognitive
Nonroutine
analytic
Nonroutine
interactive
Changes in skill demand
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1998 PISA countries in 2000 2001 2003 2006 2009 77% 81% 83% 85% 86% Coverage of world economy 87%
PISA 2009 in brief
PISA seeks to… … Support governments to prepare students…
… to deal with more rapid change than ever before…
… for jobs that have not yet been created…
… using technologies that have not yet been invented…
… to solve problems that we don’t yet know will arise
… Provide a basis for policy dialogue and global collaboration in defining and implementing educational goals, policies and practices
– Show countries what achievements are possible
– Help governments set policy targets in terms of measurable goals achieved elsewhere
– Gauge the pace of educational progress
– Facilitate peer-learning on policy and practice .
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1998 PISA countries in 2000 2001 2003 2006 2009 77% 81% 83% 85% 86% Coverage of world economy 87%
PISA 2009 in brief Key principles
‘Crowd sourcing’ and collaboration – PISA draws together leading expertise and institutions from
participating countries to develop instruments and methodologies…
… guided by governments on the basis of shared policy interests
Cross-national relevance and transferability of policy experiences
– Emphasis on validity across cultures, languages and systems
– Frameworks built on well-structured conceptual understanding of assessment areas and contextual factors
Triangulation across different stakeholder perspectives – Systematic integration of insights from students, parents,
school principals and system-leaders
Advanced methods with different grain sizes – A range of methods to adequately measure intended constructs with
different grain sizes to serve different decision-making needs
– Productive feedback, at appropriate levels of detail, to fuel improvement at multiple levels .
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What 15-year-olds can do
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Average performance of 15-year-olds in reading – extrapolate and apply
High reading performance
Low reading performance
… 17 countries perform below this line
Shanghai-China
Korea Finland Hong Kong-China
Singapore Canada
New Zealand Japan
Australia
Netherlands Belgium Norway , Estonia Switzerland Poland, Iceland United States Liechtenstein Sweden Germany,
Ireland France, Chinese Taipei Denmark United Kingdom Hungary, Portugal
Macao-China Italy Latvia
Slovenia Greece Spain
Czech Republic Slovak Republic, Croatia Israel Luxembourg,
Austria Lithuania Turkey
Dubai (UAE) Russian Federation
Chile
Serbia 440,000
460,000
480,000
500,000
520,000
540,000
560,000
1525354555
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Average performance of 15-year-olds in science – extrapolate and apply
Low average performance
Large socio-economic disparities
High average performance
Large socio-economic disparities
Low average performance
High social equity
High average performance
High social equity
Strong socio-economic impact on
student performance
Socially equitable distribution of learning
opportunities
High reading performance
Low reading performance
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Durchschnittliche Schülerleistungen im Bereich Mathematik
Low average performance
Large socio-economic disparities
High average performance
Large socio-economic disparities
Low average performance
High social equity
High average performance
High social equity
Strong socio-economic impact on
student performance
Socially equitable distribution of learning
opportunities
High reading performance
Low reading performance
2009
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300
593
-2 -1 0 1 2
Score
School performance and socio-economic background Poland
Stu
dent
perf
orm
ance
Advantage PISA Index of socio-economic background Disadvantage
Private school
Public school in rural area
Public school in urban area 700
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0
10
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Percentage of resilient students among disadvantaged students %
More than 30% resilient students among
disadvantaged students
Between 15%-30% of resilient students among
disadvantaged students
Less than 15% resilient students among
disadvantaged students
Resilient student: Comes from the bottom quarter of the socially most disadvantaged
students but performs among the top quarter of students internationally (after accounting for
social background)
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Quality differences between schools
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80
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20
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kN
orw
ayFi
nla
nd
Variability in student performance between and within schools
Variance
Performance variation of students within schools
Performance differences between schools
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ece
mb
er
20
10
Policies and practices
Learning climate
Discipline
Teacher behaviour
Parental pressure
Teacher-student relationships
Dealing with heterogeneity
Grade repetition
Prevalence of tracking
Expulsions
Ability grouping (all subjects)
Standards /accountability
Nat. examination
Standardised tests
Posting results
Governing schools
School autonomy (content)
Choice and competition
Private schools
Managing resources
Prioritising pay
Student-staff ratios
Length of pre-school
Policy
System
R
School
R
Equity
E
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Does it all matter?
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Level 2Level 3
Level 4Level 5
02468
101214161820
Age 19
Age 21
Age 21
Increased likelihood of postsec. particip. at age 19/21 associated with PISA reading proficiency at age 15 (Canada) after accounting for school engagement, gender, mother tongue,
place of residence, parental, education and family income (reference group PISA Level 1)
Odds ratio higher education entry
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How poor skills raise the risk
of economic and social disadvantage (16-65 year-olds)
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
0 1 2 3 4
In lowest two
quintiles of personal
income
Unemployed
Received social
assistance in last
year
Did not receive
investment income in
last yearNumber of skills domains with low performance
Odds ratios
Increased likelihood of failure
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What does it all mean?
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Lessons from PISA on successful
education systems
A commitment to education and the belief that competencies can be learned and therefore all children can achieve Universal educational standards and
personalisation as the approach to heterogeneity in the student body…
… as opposed to a belief that students have different destinations to be met with different expectations, and selection/stratification as the approach to heterogeneity
Clear articulation who is responsible for ensuring student success and to whom
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Durchschnittliche Schülerleistungen im Bereich Mathematik
Low average performance
Large socio-economic disparities
High average performance
Large socio-economic disparities
Low average performance
High social equity
High average performance
High social equity
Strong socio-economic impact on
student performance
Socially equitable distribution of learning
opportunities
High reading performance
Low reading performance
2009
Early selection and institutional differentiation
High degree of stratification
Low degree of stratification
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Lessons from PISA on successful
education systems
Clear ambitious goals that are shared across the system and aligned with high stakes gateways and instructional systems Well established delivery chain through which
curricular goals translate into instructional systems, instructional practices and student learning (intended, implemented and achieved)
High level of metacognitive content of instruction
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Lessons from PISA on successful
education systems
Capacity at the point of delivery Attracting, developing and retaining high quality
teachers and school leaders and a work organisation in which they can use their potential
Instructional leadership and human resource management in schools
Keeping teaching an attractive profession
System-wide career development
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Lessons from PISA on successful
education systems
Incentives, accountability, knowledge management Aligned incentive structures
For students How gateways affect the strength, direction, clarity and nature of
the incentives operating on students at each stage of their education
Degree to which students have incentives to take tough courses and study hard
Opportunity costs for staying in school and performing well
For teachers Make innovations in pedagogy and/or organisation
Improve their own performance and the performance of their colleagues
Pursue professional development opportunities that lead to stronger pedagogical practices
A balance between vertical and lateral accountability
Effective instruments to manage and share knowledge and spread innovation – communication within the system and with stakeholders around it
A capable centre with authority and legitimacy to act
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How much autonomy individual schools have
over resource allocation
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Selecting teachers for hire, OECD
averagePoland
Firing teachers, OECD average
Poland
Establishing teachers’ starting
salaries, OECD average Poland
Determining teachers’ salaries
increases, OECD average Poland
Formulating the school budget,
OECD averagePoland
Deciding on budget allocations
within the school, OECD averagePoland
Only "regional
and/or national
education authority"
Both "principals
and/or teachers"
and "regional and/or
national education
authority"
Only "principals
and/or teachers"
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0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Establishing student assessment
policies, OECD average
Poland
Choosing which textbooks are used,
OECD average
Poland
Determining course content, OECD
average
Poland
Deciding which courses are offered,
OECD average
Poland
Only "regional
and/or national
education
authority"
Both "principals
and/or teachers"
and "regional
and/or national
education
authority"
Only "principals
and/or teachers"
How much autonomy individual schools have over curricula and assessment
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Schools with less autonomy
Schools with more autonomy
480
490
500
Systems with more
accountability Systems with less
accountability
495
School autonomy in resource allocation
System’s accountability arrangements
PISA score in reading
School autonomy, accountability and student performance
Impact of school autonomy on performance in systems with and without accountability arrangements
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Local responsibility and system-level prescription
System-level prescription ‘Tayloristic’ work organisation
Schools leading reform Teachers as ‘knowledge workers’
Schools today The industrial model, detailed prescription of what schools do
Schools tomorrow?
Building capacity
Finland today Every school an effective school
Trend in OECD countries
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Public and private schools
0 20 40 60 80 100
AustraliaAustriaCanada
ChileCzech Republic
DenmarkEstoniaFinland
GermanyGreece
HungaryIcelandIreland
IsraelItaly
JapanKorea
LuxembourgMexico
NetherlandsNew Zealand
NorwayPoland
PortugalSlovak Republic
SloveniaSpain
SwedenSwitzerland
TurkeyUnited Kingdom
United StatesArgentina
BrazilHong Kong-China
IndonesiaJordan
Russian FederationShanghai-China
SingaporeChinese Taipei
Government schools
Government dependent private
Government independent private
-150 -100 -50 0 50 100
Observed performance difference
Difference after accounting for socio-economic
background of students and schools
Private schools perform better
Public schools perform better
%
Score point difference
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Lessons from PISA on successful
education systems Investing resources where they can make
most of a difference Alignment of resources with key challenges (e.g.
attracting the most talented teachers to the most challenging classrooms)
Effective spending choices that prioritise high quality teachers over smaller classes
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Lessons from PISA on successful
education systems
A learning system An outward orientation of the system to keep
the system learning, international benchmarks as the ‘eyes’ and ‘ears’ of the system
Recognising challenges and potential future threats to current success, learning from them, designing responses and implementing these
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an d
o
An
dre
as S
ch
leic
her
Wars
aw
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0 F
eb
rua
ry 2
011
Lessons from PISA on successful
education systems
Coherence of policies and practices Alignment of policies
across all aspects of the system
Coherence of policies over sustained periods of time
Consistency of implementation
Fidelity of implementation (without excessive control)
39 39 P
ISA
O
EC
D P
rogra
mm
e for
Inte
rnational S
tudent A
ssessm
ent
What
stu
dents
know
and c
an d
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An
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ch
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Wars
aw
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0 F
eb
rua
ry 2
011
Beyond schooling
40 40 P
ISA
O
EC
D P
rogra
mm
e for
Inte
rnational S
tudent A
ssessm
ent
What
stu
dents
know
and c
an d
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An
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ch
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Wars
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0 F
eb
rua
ry 2
011
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60L
ith
uan
ia
Germ
an
y
De
nm
ark
Cro
ati
a
Ho
ng
Ko
ng
-Ch
ina
Ko
rea
Macao
-Ch
ina
Po
rtu
gal
Hu
ng
ary
New
Zeala
nd
Ch
ile
Italy
Pan
am
a
Qa
tar
Sco
re p
oin
t d
iffe
ren
ce
Parental support at the beginning of primary school
Score point difference between students whose parents often do (weekly or daily) and those who do not:
"talk about what they had done"
41 41 P
ISA
O
EC
D P
rogra
mm
e for
Inte
rnational S
tudent A
ssessm
ent
What
stu
dents
know
and c
an d
o
An
dre
as S
ch
leic
her
Wars
aw
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0 F
eb
rua
ry 2
011
Performance difference between students who had attended pre-primary school for more than one year and those who did not
Sco
re p
oin
t d
iffe
ren
ce
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Isra
el
Sin
gap
ore
Belg
ium
Qata
rM
ac
ao
-Ch
ina
Italy
Fra
nce
Ho
ng
Ko
ng
-Ch
ina
Sw
itzerl
an
dD
en
mark
Un
ite
d K
ing
do
mL
iech
ten
ste
inD
ub
ai
(UA
E)
Gre
ec
eK
yrg
yzs
tan
Uru
gu
ay
Arg
en
tin
aS
han
gh
ai-
Ch
ina
Germ
an
yS
pain
Ne
w Z
ea
lan
dA
ustr
alia
Slo
va
k R
ep
ub
lic
Sw
ed
en
Bra
zil
Hu
ng
ary
Lu
xem
bo
urg
Me
xic
oT
ha
ila
nd
Tri
nid
ad
an
d T
ob
ag
oC
an
ad
aO
EC
D a
ve
rag
eC
hin
ese
Ta
ipe
iIn
do
nesia
Po
lan
dIc
ela
nd
Kazak
hsta
nP
an
am
aR
om
an
iaC
zech
Rep
ub
lic
Jap
an
Tu
nis
iaP
eru
Au
str
iaJ
ord
an
Bu
lgari
aN
orw
ay
Alb
an
iaA
ze
rbaij
an
Ru
ss
ian
Fe
dera
tio
nC
olo
mb
iaP
ort
ug
al
Ch
ile
Un
ite
d S
tate
sL
ith
ua
nia
Tu
rkey
Serb
iaM
on
ten
eg
roN
eth
erl
an
ds
Irela
nd
Slo
ve
nia
Cro
ati
aF
inla
nd
Ko
rea
Latv
iaE
sto
nia
Beyond schooling
Observed performance advantage
Performance advantage after accounting for socio-economic factors
42 42 P
ISA
O
EC
D P
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Inte
rnational S
tudent A
ssessm
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What
stu
dents
know
and c
an d
o
An
dre
as S
ch
leic
her
Wars
aw
, 1
0 F
eb
rua
ry 2
011
Some students learn at high levels All students need to learn at high levels
Student inclusion
Routine cognitive skills, rote learning Learning to learn, complex ways of thinking, ways of working
Curriculum, instruction and assessment
Few years more than secondary High-level professional knowledge workers
Teacher quality
‘Tayloristic’, hierarchical Flat, collegial
Work organisation
Primarily to authorities Primarily to peers and stakeholders
Accountability
Education reform trajectories
The old bureaucratic system The modern enabling system
43 43 P
ISA
O
EC
D P
rogra
mm
e for
Inte
rnational S
tudent A
ssessm
ent
What
stu
dents
know
and c
an d
o
An
dre
as S
ch
leic
her
Wars
aw
, 1
0 F
eb
rua
ry 2
011
Moderate policy value
High policy value
More difficult Less difficult
Money pits
Must haves
Low-hanging fruits
Quick wins
PISA 2000
A brief history of PISA
Proliferation of assessment areas .
Examining individual, institutional and systemic factors associated with quality,
equity and efficiency in education
Measuring student learning outcomes in
key subjects
Extending the range of competencies through which quality is assessed
Monitoring educational progress
Electronic delivery of assessments
Understanding drivers of successful reform trajectories
Providing countries with effective tools to review the choices and trade-offs which they face as they seek to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of their
education systems
‘Democratising PISA’
44 44 P
ISA
O
EC
D P
rogra
mm
e for
Inte
rnational S
tudent A
ssessm
ent
What
stu
dents
know
and c
an d
o
An
dre
as S
ch
leic
her
Wars
aw
, 1
0 F
eb
rua
ry 2
011
Moderate policy value
High policy value
More difficult Less difficult
Money pits
Must haves
Low-hanging fruits
Quick wins
PISA 2003
Proliferation of assessment areas .
Examining individual, institutional and systemic factors associated with quality,
equity and efficiency in education
Measuring student learning outcomes in
key subjects and establishing the comparative strengths and
weaknesses of education systems
Monitoring educational progress
Electronic delivery of assessments
Understanding drivers of successful reform trajectories
Providing countries with effective tools to review the choices and trade-offs which they face as they seek to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of their
education systems
Extending the range of competencies through which quality is assessed
‘Democratising PISA’
45 45 P
ISA
O
EC
D P
rogra
mm
e for
Inte
rnational S
tudent A
ssessm
ent
What
stu
dents
know
and c
an d
o
An
dre
as S
ch
leic
her
Wars
aw
, 1
0 F
eb
rua
ry 2
011
Moderate policy value
High policy value
More difficult Less difficult
Money pits
Must haves
Low-hanging fruits
Quick wins
PISA 2006
Proliferation of assessment areas .
Examining individual, institutional and systemic factors associated with quality,
equity and efficiency in education
Measuring student learning outcomes in
key subjects and establishing the comparative strengths and
weaknesses of education systems
Extending the range of competencies through which quality is assessed
Monitoring educational progress
Understanding drivers of successful reform trajectories
Providing countries with effective tools to review the choices and trade-offs which they face as they seek to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of their
education systems
Electronic delivery of assessments
‘Democratising PISA’
46 46 P
ISA
O
EC
D P
rogra
mm
e for
Inte
rnational S
tudent A
ssessm
ent
What
stu
dents
know
and c
an d
o
An
dre
as S
ch
leic
her
Wars
aw
, 1
0 F
eb
rua
ry 2
011
Moderate policy value
High policy value
More difficult Less difficult
Money pits
Must haves
Low-hanging fruits
Quick wins
PISA 2009
Proliferation of assessment areas
Examining individual, institutional and systemic factors associated with quality,
equity and efficiency in education
Measuring student learning outcomes in
key subjects and establishing the comparative strengths and
weaknesses of education systems
Extending the range of competencies through which quality is assessed Affective dimensions of outcomes
Electronic delivery of assessments
Providing countries with effective tools to review the choices and trade-offs which they face as they seek to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of their
education systems
Assessment of digital literacy
Understanding drivers of successful reform trajectories
Monitoring educational progress ‘Democratising PISA’
47 47 P
ISA
O
EC
D P
rogra
mm
e for
Inte
rnational S
tudent A
ssessm
ent
What
stu
dents
know
and c
an d
o
An
dre
as S
ch
leic
her
Wars
aw
, 1
0 F
eb
rua
ry 2
011
Thank you !
Find out more about PISA at…
OECD www.pisa.oecd.org – All national and international publications
– The complete micro-level database
U.S. White House www.data.gov
Email: [email protected]
… and remember:
Without data, you are just another person with an opinion
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