Pinkerton C&I

Eric Davis-Fernald

Director

Managing Risk

“The expert mind misses much, the beginners mind is open to all

possibilities”Zen Saying

Managing Risk

“The human mind inconsistently evaluates

risk (fear) thus more systematic methods

must be applied”Gil Fronsdal

Topics for Today• Ramifications of 11 September

• Recent Security Industry Change in Focus

• Overarching Definition of Risk

• Tools to Define the Threat

Aftermath

• Focus on External Threats

• Buzzwords

• Business continuity shifted to survival

• Large scale events / disasters

• “Security Theater” – Bruce Schneier

Historical Definition of Risk

Consequence

Risk

=

Change in Focus

Risk Based Assessment

Clear, Holistic View of all Hazards

Gaps in Current Security

Critical Resources

Consequences of Adverse Actions

Levels of Deterrence

Risk Mitigation Recommendations

Current Definition of Risk

Threat

Vulnerability

Consequence

Risk

x

x

=

Defining the Threat

CAP Index?

• Wide variety of information

• Neighborhood demographic and physical housing data

• FBI Uniform Crime Reports

• National Crime Surveys

• Local Law Enforcement data

• Company crime loss reports from all of the major industries

It is important to note that race/religion/gender is NOT a factor

Glendale – Overview

189

What do the scores mean?

• CAP Index's scores range from 0-2000 with one hundred (100) being the average for each geographic comparison.

• A National Current CAP score of 189 means the address has a 1.8 times higher likelihood of a crime occurring there than the national average.

• The County scores measure the address to the rest of the county in which it is found. This allows for an objective comparison when comparing a "high risk" location in a "high risk area", vs. a "high risk" location in an otherwise low risk area.

Glendale – Regional Comparison

National / State / County

• The national score compares the crime risk at a specific location to the crime risk at "Main Street, USA". The national score allows you to compare multiple sites, regardless of location, to each other with a common baseline.

• The state score compares a location to the rest of the properties in the state the site resides in, rather than to the country as a whole. We have found that clients operating multiple locations within the same state prefer this additional view of their risk.

• The county score compares the location to the rest of the properties in the county the site resides in. Perceptions and anxieties about crime will be the result of experiences in that county, not the nation.

Marina del Rey

301

MDR – Regional Comparison

Beverly Hills

285

BH – Regional Comparison

Questions?