Pilot modelling of transport and deposition of black carbon:

case of shipping in the Russian Arctic

Irina Morozova Head of Department for modelling transboundary air pollution and accounting of national emissions,

Dr. Vladimir Zubov

Julia IgnatEvascientific researcher

Scientific Research Institute for atmospheric air protectionSaint Petersburg,

Russia

WORKSHOP:

IMPROVING BLACK CARBON EMISSION ESTIMATES & ABATEMENT

13th-14th May 2015

sriatm@yandex.ru

Milan 2015

Arctic shipping routes

2

I route – Murmansk-Dudinka-Murmansk;

II route - Arkhangelsk-Dudinka-Arkhangelsk;

III route - Arkhangelsk-Sabetta-Arkhangelsk;

IV route – Transit routes along the NSR*

(Murmansk-Providence).

*- Northern Sea Route

Murmansk Arkhangelsk

Dudinka

Sabetta

Providence WWF interactive map was used for linking

shipping routes with the modelling grid

Estimating of BC emissions from shipping

BC emissions from shipping were estimated

following formula:

Ei – BC emissions, t;

FC – fuel burnt, t;

EFi – emission factor

J.J. Corbett* coefficient for BC emissions

in the Arctic conditions

– 0.35 kg of BC per 1 t of diesel burnt –

was applied

* - Corbett, J.J., et al., Arctic shipping emissions

inventories and future scenarios. Atmospheric

Chemistry and Physics, 2010(10): p. 9689-97043

Shipping routes BC emissions, kg

I Route 7700

II Route 1372

III Route 6149

IV Route 5880

21101кг

BC emissions as estimated

21101 kg

Shares

IV route28%

I route36%

II route7%

III route29%

Open Unified EMEP ModelMeteorological Synthesizing

Centre - West (MSC-W)

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BC transport and deposition modelling

5RED LINE – original EMEP grid boundary

Extended EMEP gridThe extended EMEP grid covers most of the Russian territory with an exception of the Far East Federal District and a part of the Siberian Federal District

Deposition of BC emitted from Russian ships in the Arctic

2013, mg/m2 /year

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Based on modelling results

total deposition of BC

emitted from Russian ships

on snow/ice in the Arctic

equals

18.8 t

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Mean annual concentrations of BC in the air emitted from Russian ships in the Arctic, μg/m3

Maximum

concentration of BC is

formed in the air over

the central part of

Kara Sea –

0.00022 μg/m3

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Shipping BC emissions impact assessment on climate change

Decrease of albedo and change of temperature in the Arctic region were

used as indicators to model impact of BC emissions from Russian shipping

Decrease of ice albedo as result of BC emissions from Russian ships, %

Maximum decrease of ice albedo

– 0.01% (Kara Sea area).

Mean value of decrease of ice

albedo – 0.001%.

Additional warming in the Arctic

Region caused by BC emissions

from Russian ships could be

around 0.0003С.

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Conclusions

BC emissions from Russian shipping in ice conditions of the Arctic (270 days) - 21 t

• Conclusion 1. Modelling results suggest that BC emitted by Russian shipping

mostly gets deposited on ice in the Russian Arctic, estimated quantity – 18.8 t,

including 10 t (53%) that is deposited within 700-1000 km along the route.

• Conclusion 2. BC emissions from Russian shipping do not have any significant

impact on albedo of ice in the Arctic region. Maximum decrease of ice albedo

as a result of BC deposition equals 0.01%, mean value – 0.001%.

• Conclusion 3. Potential impact of BC emissions from Russian shipping on the

change of temperature in the Arctic region is considered negligible – 0.00030C.