Physics-based Fault Rupture Models for Seismic Hazard … · 2018. 5. 10. · Best Practices in Physics-based Fault Rupture Models for Seismic Hazard Assessment of Nuclear Installations:

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Irikura

Best Practices in

Physics-based Fault Rupture Models for

Seismic Hazard Assessment of Nuclear Installations:

Issues and Challenges towards

full Seismic Risk Analysis

2nd

International Workshop on

& hosted by

Organized by

May, 14-16th

2018

Cadarache, France

Best Practices in Physics-based Fault Rupture Models for Seismic Hazard Assessment of Nuclear Installations: issues and challenges towards full Seismic Risk Analysis Cadarache, France, 14-16 May 2018

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Agenda

Monday, May 14th, 2018 8:00 Departure of the buses from Aix-en-Provence to INSTN Cadarache 9:00 – 9:30 Registration, welcome coffee 9:30 – 9:45 Welcome address

Chair: L.A. Dalguer o Welcome address 1 (C. Berge-Thierry on behalf of CEA) o Welcome address 2 (Y. Fukushima on behalf of IAEA)

9:45 – 14:00 The CEA and French Sinaps@ research project session

Chairs: C. Berge-Thierry and F. Hollender 9:45 – 10:30 KEYNOTE The Durance Area and the Cadarache Research Center Presented by CEA

o Introduction by the Head of CEA/Cadarache (research activities, nuclear facilities & safety issues) – by Ch. Bonnet / D. Dall’ava 15’

o Geophysical & Seismotectonical regional context – Focus on knowledge improvement through instrumentation effort – illustration on site effects characterization – by F. Hollender 15’

o Nuclear facilities, civil engineering & seismic safety topics – by F. Méméteau 15’ o Questions/discussion 15’

10:30 – 11:30 “An innovative approach to perform seismic risk analysis of nuclear facilities through the multidisciplinary Sinaps@ research project”, by C. Berge-Thierry, F. Voldoire, F. Ragueneau, F. Lopez-Caballero and A. Le Maoult [ID 10] 45‘

o Questions/discussion 15’

11:30 – 12:00 KEYNOTE “Conceptual framework for physics-based simulations in practical projects and interface to engineering demands”, by Ph. Renault [ID 76] 12:00 – 13:30 - Lunch 13:30 – 14:00 “A Practical study-case: the SINOP SSHAC”

by Ch. Martin, Th. Bontemps, A. Gürpinar and D. Baumont [ID 46] 14:00 – 17:30 Empirical Ground Motion Models and Simulations session (first part)

Chairs: Y. Fukushima and G. Atkinson 14:00 – 14:30 KEYNOTE “The interface between empirical and simulation-based ground motion models”, by G. Atkinson [ID 06] 14:30 – 14:45 “A preliminary study to investigate the regional effects on ground motion predictive models for Turkey”, by G. Tanircan [ID 65] 14:45 – 15:00: “Developing site-specific vertical ground motions for Turkey Part 1: using V/H ratio ground motion models”, by Z. Gülerce [ID 27]


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15:00 – 15:30 KEYNOTE “Current status and issues of strong-motion prediction method in seismic hazard assessment for the national seismic hazard maps for Japan”, by H. Fujiwara [ID 23] 15:30 – 15:45 “Are the standard Vs30-kappa host-to-target adjustments the best way to get consistent hard-rock ground motion prediction?”, by P.Y Bard [ID 08] 15:45 – 16:15 Coffee Break 16:15 – 16:45 KEYNOTE “Calibrating the backbone approach for the development of earthquake ground motion models”, by J. Douglas [ID 19] 16:45 – 17:00 “The Bayesian model averaging of ground motion prediction equations”, by M. Bertin [ID 11] 17:00-17:30 PANNEL DISCUSSION 17:30 - 18:00 Flash presentation of each Poster (1’30 / poster) 18:00 Departure of the buses from INSTN Cadarache to Aix-en-Provence

Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 7:00 Departure of the buses from Aix-en-Provence to INSTN Cadarache 8:30 – 9:30 Empirical Ground Motion Models and Simulations session (second part)

Chairs: Ch. Wu and N. Abrahamson 8:30 – 9:00 KEYNOTE “Probabilistic hazard incorporating 3D simulations into no ergodic ground-motion models”, by N. Abrahamson [ID 01] 9:00 – 9:15 “The needs for filling the gaps in empirical data for reliable seismic hazard estimates: lessons learned from the GMPE developments”, by V. Graizer [ID 26] 9:15 – 9:30 “Uncertainty analysis relevant to the fault modeling method”, by C. Wu [ID 74] 9:30 – 12:30 Source Characterization for ground motion prediction session

Chairs: R. Archuleta and F. Cotton 9:30 – 10:00 KEYNOTE “Earthquakes and ground-motion variabilities: evaluation and impacts on physics based ground-motions simulations and associated probabilistic seismic hazard assessments”, by F. Cotton [ID 16] 10:00 – 10:15 “Capturing the source parameters controlling the high-frequency ground motion”, by R. Fayjaloun [ID 22] 10:15 - 10:45 – Coffee Break 10:45 – 11:15 KEYNOTE ”A double-corner source spectrum for 5.3 ≤ M ≤ 7.7 that predicts PGA, PGV, duration, radiated energy and apparent stress”, by R. Archuleta [ID 04]


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11:15 – 11:45 KEYNOTE “Procedure of evaluating fault parameters of subduction plate-boundary earthquakes with surface fault breakings for strong motion prediction”, by K. Dan [ID 18] 11:45 – 12:00 “Scaling laws of fault parameters of intra-slab earthquakes and strong motion simulation”, by D. Ju [ID 38] 12:00 – 12:15 “Long-term rate of earthquake ruptures in complex fault systems”, by F. Visini [ID 57] 12:15 – 12:30 PANNEL DISCUSSION 12:30 – 14:00 Lunch 14:00 – 15:30 Poster Session 15:30 – 18:15: Physic based ground motion simulation session: Dynamic and Kinematic

Chairs: L. A. Dalguer and H. Aochi 15:30 – 16:00 KEYNOTE “On near-field ground motions of normal and reverse faults from viewpoint of dynamic rupture model”, by H. Aochi [ID 02] 16:00 – 16:15 “Broadband dynamic source model for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake using slip reactivation and EGF simulation”, by P. Galvez-Barron [ID 24] 16:15 – 16:30 “Parametric study of the slip distribution on the vertical strike-slip fault for different source parameters based on the dynamic rupture simulation”, by H. Kawase [ID 40] 16:30 – 16:45 Coffee Break 16:45 – 17:00 “Physics-based simulations of the M7 Kumamoto, japan earthquake: implication of rupture models for near-fault ground motion variability estimates”, by A. Pitarka [ID 51] 17:00 – 17:15 “Challenges for near-field ground-motion modelling using extended-fault rupture in moderate seismicity areas: model parameters and data”, by A. Dujardin [ID 20] 17:15 – 17:30 “Physically based Seismic Hazard assessment for Egypt and its implication on Critical structures”, by M. Elgabry [ID 21] 17:30 – 18:00: PANNEL DISCUSSION 18:00 Departure of the buses from INSTN Cadarache to Social Event

19:00 Aperitif & wine tasting

19:30 – 22:00 Dinner

22:30 Departure of the buses from Social Event to the hotels


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Wednesday, May 16th, 2018 7:00 Departure of the buses from Aix-en-Provence to INSTN Cadarache

. 8:30 – 10:45 Fault displacement and long-period ground motion simulation session

Chairs: D. Seber and M. Takao 8:30 – 9:00 KEYNOTE “Outline of the PFDHA Method and Recent Studies on PFDHA in Japan”, by M. Takao [ID 64] 9:00 – 9:30 KEYNOTE “Estimation of surface fault displacement by high performance computing”, by M. Hori [ID 31] 9:30 – 9:45 “Asperity models to predict surface fault displacement caused by earthquakes: the 2010 Mw 7.0 Darfield (New Zealand) earthquake”, by L.A. Dalguer et al. [ID 17] 9:45 – 10:00 “Numerical simulation of M9 megathrust earthquakes in the Cascadia Subduction zone”, by D. Roten [ID 56] 10:00 – 10:15 “Scaling relationships of source parameters of inland crustal earthquakes in tectonically active regions”, by K. Miyakoshi [ID 47] 10:15 – 10:45 – PANNEL DISCUSSION 10:45 – 11:15 Coffee Break 11:15 – 12:45: Site Characterization & Response – Site specific Studies session

Chairs: D. Seber and R. Paolucci 11:15 – 11:45 KEYNOTE “Analysis of the spatial correlation of earthquake ground motion from physics-based numerical simulations”, by R. Paolucci [ID 49] 11:30 – 11:45 “The Argostoli Sinaps@ test-site: a tool for simulation validation and for a better understanding of phenomena involved in seismic hazard assessment”, by F. Hollender [ID 30] 11:45 – 12:00 “Argostoli site, from site test to numerical model: a holistic approach “, by S. Touhami [ID 68] 12:00 – 12:15 “Broad-band 3-D physics-based simulation of earthquake-induced wave-field at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant (Japan): an all-embracing source-to-site approach”, by F. Gatti [ID 25] 12:15 – 12:45 PANNEL DISCUSSION 12:45 – 14:00 - Lunch


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14:00 – 18:15 Engineering needs, Soil-Structure Interaction, Structural & components vulnerabilities & Risk assessment session

Chairs: Ph. Renault and P. Labbé 14:00 – 14:30 KEYNOTE “Interface between earthquake ground motions and structural response: numerical modeling and simulation of ESSI behavior”, by B. Jeremic [ID 37] 14:30 – 14:45 “From seismic sources to engineering demand parameters: an interdisciplinary framework for estimation of seismic losses in urban regions”, by A. Askan [ID 05] 14:45 – 15:00 “New advances in the seismic analysis of nuclear structures and equipment from the SINAPS@ project”, by F. Voldoire [ID 72] 15:00 – 15:15 “Multi-level modelling approach of structures under earthquake loading: contributions from the SINAPS@ project”, by F. Ragueneau [ID 53] 15:15 – 15:30 “Nonlinear behaviors and structural damping identification in reinforced concrete elements”, by C. Giry [ID 28] 15:30 – 15:45 “Shake table test of large scale structures subject to pounding“, by V. Crozet [ID 42] 15:45 – 16:15 Coffee break 16:15 – 16:30 “Progress in the understanding and modelling of components that could drive the overall fragility of a nuclear power plant “, by M.C. Robin-Boudaoud [ID 54] 16:30 – 16:45 “Framework for non-structural component fragility curve estimation using synthetic ground motions with conditional spectra”, by K. Trevlopoulos [ID 69] 16:45 – 17:00 “Equipment’s seismic fragility curve estimation using signals generated with GMPEs – Case study on the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa power plant”, by F. Wang [ID 73] 17:00 – 17:30 KEYNOTE “Should we go ahead with the response spectrum?”, by P. Labbé [ID 78] 17:30 – 18:00 PANNEL DISCUSSION 18:00 – 18:15 Final conclusion and Closure 18:30 Departure of the buses from INSTN Cadarache


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Thursday May, 17th, 2018 – TECHNICAL TOURS (optional) 8:00 Departure of the buses from Aix-en-Provence to Château de Cadarache 9:15 - 12:30 Technical Tours:

The Jules Horowitz Reactor and the Cadarache Research and Nuclear Center. The Jules Horowitz Reactor (JHR) is an experimental reactor designed to provide scientific data on the behavior of nuclear materials and fuels under irradiation, in support of both existing and future nuclear reactors. The JHR will also be used for nuclear medicine needs, for it will provide 25% to 50% of the European Union’s annual needs in short-lived radioisotopes. Its commissioning is scheduled for 2021.

Or

ITER and the Cadarache Research and Nuclear Center. ITER is a magnetic fusion device that has been designed to prove the feasibility of fusion as a large-scale and carbon-free source of energy based on the same principle that powers our Sun and stars. The experimental campaign that will be carried out at ITER is crucial to advancing fusion science and preparing the way for the fusion power plants of tomorrow.

12:30-14:00 Lunch at “Espace Club” In CEA Cadarache Center 14:30 Departure of the buses from Château de Cadarache to Aix-en-Provence, Aix TGV, Marseille Provence Airport


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BUS STOPS AND SCHEDULES

Warning: THE HOURS INDICATE THE DEPARTURE TIME OF THE BUSES, BE AT LEAST 10 min in advance at the BUS stop.

FROM AIX-EN-PROVENCE TO INSTN CADARACHE

Bus Stops Address/ Details Monday, May 14

Tuesday, May 15

Wednesday, May 16

Thursday, May 17

1. Max Juvénal Avenue Max Juvénal in front of the police station

7:50 a.m. 7:00 a.m. 7:00 a.m. 7:50 a.m.

2. Grand Hôtel Roi René

24 Boulevard du Roi René

8:00 a.m. 7:10 a.m. 7:10 a.m. 8:00 a.m.

3. Saint Joseph School and College

16 Cours Saint-Louis 8:10 a.m. 7:20 a.m. 7:20 a.m. 8:10 a.m.

FROM MANOSQUE TO INSTN CADARACHE

Bus Stops Address/ Details Monday, May 14

Tuesday, May 15

Wednesday, May 16

Thursday, May 17

1. Bus Station Boulevard Charles de Gaulle

8:15 a.m. 7:45 a.m. 7:45 a.m. 8:15 a.m.

2. Train Station Place Frédéric Mistral 8:20 a.m. 7:50 a.m. 7:50 a.m. 8:20 a.m.

3. Ibis Budget Hotel

Peage A51, Les Grandes Terres

8:30 a.m. 8:00 a.m. 8:00 a.m. 8:30 a.m.

FROM INSTN CADARACHE

Destination Monday, May 14

Tuesday, May 15

Wednesday, May 16

Thursday, May 17

To Aix-en-Provence (same stops as the morning)

18:00 p.m. 18:00 p.m.

To Manosque (same stops as the morning)

18:00 p.m. 18:30 p.m.

To Gala Evening 18:00 p.m.

To : 1. Max Juvénal, Aix-en-Provence 2. Train Station Aix-TGV 3. and Marseille – Provence Airport

18:30 p.m. 14:30 p.m. And 17:00 p.m.

After the gala evening, a bus will bring the participants to Aix en Provence and another will serve the castle of Cadarache and Manosque

TAXI AGENCIES: − VVP Taxi Provence: 06 12 48 77 26. - www.vvp-taxi-provence.com/english − Taxis en Provence: 06 87 21 01 87 - [email protected] - www.taxienprovence.com/ − Les Taxis du Puy: 06 61 92 94 72

http://www.vvp-taxi-provence.com/english

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.taxienprovence.com/


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Documents

Physics-based Fault Rupture Models for Seismic Hazard … · 2018. 5. 10. · Best Practices in Physics-based Fault Rupture Models for Seismic Hazard Assessment of Nuclear Installations: