“PHILIPPINE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2016 – …philippinen.ahk.de/uploads/media/GPCCI_Economic_Forum...Philippines under Aquino A dishonest Chief Justice and obstinate Ombudsman kicked

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“PHILIPPINE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2016 – WHAT TO EXPECT”

“PHILIPPINE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2016 – WHAT TO EXPECT”

German - Philippine Chamber of CommerceGerman - Philippine Chamber of Commerce

German ClubNovember 12, 2015

German ClubNovember 12, 2015


SENIORS & COMPUTERSAs we Silver Surfers know, sometimes we have trouble

with our computers.Yesterday, I had a problem, so I called Georgie, the 11 year old next door, whose bedroom looks like Mission Control, and asked him to come over.

Georgie clicked a couple of buttons and solved the problem.As he was walking away, I called after him, 'So, what was wrong?

He replied, 'It was an ID ten T error.'I didn't want to appear stupid, but nonetheless inquired,

'An, ID ten T error? What's that? In case I need to fix it again.'Georgie grinned. 'Haven't you ever heard of an ID ten T error before?

'No,' I replied.'Write it down,' he said, 'and I think you'll figure it out.'

So I wrote down:


I used to like Georgie, the little shithead.


The nature of man and the whimsicality of politics means that our assessments, which are based upon

interviews and research are the most likely ‐ but could change


Philippines under Aquino

A dishonest Chief Justice and obstinate Ombudsman kicked out

A questionable President under hospital arrest 3 (opposition) senators detained over fund scandal Cases vs. 500 major tax evaders and smugglers filed – but

no one convicted Tough laws passed – Sin Tax Reform, Reproductive Health National Budget reforms enacted Sustained economic growth


5.1

3.43.6

1.9

‐7.3 ‐7.3

3.44.3

6.86.2

3.0

‐0.6

0.3

2.1

4.4 4.7

5.85.2

‐0.6

3.1

4.4

2.93.6

5

6.7

4.85.2

6.6

4.2

1.1

7.6

3.7

6.87.2

6.1

‐10

‐8

‐6

‐4

‐2

0

2

4

6

8

10

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

PH’s Real GDP Growth, 1980‐2014

Country % Growth rate (1980‐2014)

Indonesia 5.51

Vietnam* 5.50

Thailand 5.26

Philippines 3.53

*1985‐2014


But these gains have been offset by –

GDP growth being consumption‐led not production‐driven (non‐inclusive)

Insufficient jobs being created

Negligible reduction in the number of poor Filipinos

Not a single tax evader/smuggler in jail

Allies involved in corruption scandals still roam free

Hugely inefficient mass transportation system

Minimal improvement in business registration system

Corruption still pervasive especially among LGUs

Non‐support of amendments to economic provisions of the Constitution

Mamasapano incident


The decline in ratings has been arrestedExpected to rub off on Roxas soon

Aquino’s Net Satisfaction Rating (SWS)


Gives President Aquino sufficient capital to push for crucial reform measures with barely a year left in office – if he wants to

Boosts his endorsement power for the 2016 elections

But this has yet to fully rub off on Roxas’ voter preference scores Osmena says endorsement not a significant factor Drilon disagrees

Lacson says the 2015 national budget has lump sumfunds that can be specified later

Improved Ratings:

─ used to finance local government projects ─ used to gain support from local pols who have far‐reaching

influence over their constituents

It’s all about PPPPopularity, Politicians, Pesos


How Aquino Compares (SWS)Net satisfaction with barely a year left in office, and how their

anointed successors fared in elections:

Cory Aquino, +10Her anointed won

Erap Estrada, +5Fled the Palace

Fidel Ramos, +50His didn’t

Gloria Arroyo, ‐32Hers didn’t

Benigno Aquino lll, +41His???


Why Poe’s Ratings remain strong Attacks on her being a foundling are backfiring amongst

the public Comes across as intelligent, decent, balanced and thoughtful

(captures A,B,C classes) Endearing to “masa” voters (Erap/FPJ constituency) & youth Professional handling of Senate investigation on PNP corruption

and Mamasapano despite being a novice senator Advocates for a clean and honest government (principal author

of FOI bill)

Funds hesitant but some moving into her camp;A party taking her in is on the cards

BUT


Issues Against Poe

Citizenship. Being considered by the SET, and COMELEC; Decisions soon. It will be close.

Whatever is decided it will go to the SC. How quickly they decide will be critical.

Actual residence or intent to return. It is putting her status in doubt. In both cases the SC could justify either way.

It puts a cloud over her candidacy

VP – Chiz Escudero


Novice lawmaker. Aside from FOI her legislative record is slim.Limited experience – 2 years as chairman of Movie and

Television Review and Classification Board (MTRCB).But she listens and learns

If Poe is declared ineligible, Miriam might gain – but not enough.

Binay and Roxas both gain someErap’s support for Poe shifts to Binay─ or he may just step in. Dec. 10 is it

Thank You Supreme Court

Issues Against Poe… 2


Binay’s Lower Ratings

VP Binay’s lower voter preference ratings have primarily beenattributed to his reluctance to directly address plunder and graftcharges filed against him

That demand for explanation has been growingThe masses don’t care – “Everyone does it, anyway”

They see a candidate that has the potential to replicate Makati’ssuccess throughout the country—and he gives cakes

He appeals to the grassroots – Boy Scouts, Makati’s sister Cities,OFWs and their families, and the previously homeless families


The Demolition vs Binay

The administration is out to get him‐ can they succeed?


He’s battling a concerted effort to demolish him – but theyneed more dirt close to the polls if they are to succeedAttacks vs Binay were launched too early – can they besustained?Something that breaks his rapport with the masses anddisenchants the LGU’s is needed

Binay’s…

VP – Gringo Honasan

Political machinery (UNA) support remains strong


Roxas’ Ratings Have Been Improving

Now able to give Poe and Binay a fight

He has been struggling to reverse a lackluster image that justwasn’t drawing the crowds. Will Aquino’s endorsement changethat?

A technocrat pretending to be pro‐masses. He could no longersell the “Mr. Palengke” (public market) image that took him tothe top of 2004 senatorial polls. He needs something else

There’s nothing derogatory against him (his lack of decisivenessis not known to the general public). But he doesn’t haveempathy with the masses, he just doesn’t click


Roxas’ Ratings…

He’s a decent, honest man — no scandal has ever been attached to him.

He has long senior public service experience He should be the one

“He has an unblemished record” ‐ AquinoIndeed he has – he’s done nothing “blemishable”

If it were just him and Binay he could winWith Poe in it’s a tougher call

But don’t underestimate the government machine VP – Leni Robredo


Is it down to just 3?

Miriam doesn’t think so She’s struggled into the ring

And there’s the 1st problem – health She says she’s beaten stage 4 cancer

‐ only 1% survival rate for patients who live at least 5 years – but won’t release medical proofShe’s frail, hesitant on her legsA sharp mind, but ill‐prepared Appeals to college students

She’s not a winner, she’s a spoiler She takes votes from mostly Grace and

lesser Mar.

VP ‐ Bongbong Marcos


Philippines’ Most Wanted


He’s said no, no, no.His supporters won’t give up

Till December 10 he could replaceMartin DiñoWho filed under PDP‐Laban, Duterte’s party.

The “Donald Trump” of the PhilippinesHis tough, no‐nonsense attitude is what the public wants

His frank, “like it is” style appealsAs does his ability to fight crime successfully

But he’s yet to rise above the image of just a town mayorCould he modify his dictatorial style to the national good.There is serious attempt to get him to change his mind

—it could succeed

VP ─ Alan Cayetano

Then There’s Duterte


So is it down to just 3?

Yes – forget Miriam and 120 other Charlatans

Without Duterte:

Sen. Grace Poe will get the popular vote

VP Jojo Binay will get LGU influence

Sec. Mar Roxas will get the full government machine

It will be a close callIf Duterte joins he could be the one to beat


It may be even closer – if Poe is disqualified

That too is a close call

Will the SET listen to the people or pedantic lawyers (forget the facts, it’s a political call)

But then there’s the Supreme Court

Whose decisions are unfathomable

As is their timing

If there is a negative decision

There could be wide public discontent



People want change, someone new and fresh

But many voters don’t vote their choice, they listen to and are influenced by local politicians and pesos; party machinery still

works (Binay and Roxas have an edge here)

70‐80% of voters are C, D, EThe traditional campaigns, will remain an important

influence – they draw crowds.

Filipinos love a “fiesta.” The thrill of someone “famous”

‐ and a merienda

An independent candidate faces an uphill battle

How do voters vote?What The Latest Poll Results Say


Social Media Votes

The internet (Facebook, Twitter, etc.) will be a major new factor particularly for the young

The Philippines is a social networking capital:

8th on the list of countries with most number of Facebook users

10th in the global ranking for Twitter

Around 35‐40M Filipinos have internet access

Filipinos spend between 40‐50 hours a week surfing the internet, bulk of which is spent on various social media sites

It’s going to influenceIt’s a new influence


How Contenders Fare on Social Media

Rank Facebook “likes”

Twitter “followers” Total “likes” and “followers”

1) Jojo Binay1.7 Million 241K 1.941 Million

2) Mar Roxas993K 508K 1.501 Million

3) RodrigoDuterte

1.4 Million 26K 1.426 Million

4) Grace Poe 679K 45K 724K

Social Media Presence and Influence*

*Official and Unofficial Social Media Accounts; As of September 2015


ISSUE BINAY POE ROXAS DUTERTE

Charter Change

In favor of amending the economic

provisions of the Constitution

In favor of amending the economic

provisions of the Constitution

Open to amendments

to both economic and

political provisions

Wants shift to parliamentary

federal system. Supports

amending the economic provisions

Department of ICT

Has not yet taken a position

No known stand

Could support

Against the formation of

DICT

Despite being the “Father of

PH BPO”

Supportscreation of aDICT and ispromoting forICTdevelopmentin Davao city

Frontrunners on key issues



Mining Supports responsible mining;

Among UNA’s 3 drivers of growth (with agriculture and tourism)

Advocates for “responsible, transparent mining”

May seek new mining code

Lukewarm to mining

No clear stand on mining taxes

Supportsresponsible mining

and fair taxes

PPP

Pro; Believes instrongpartnershipbetween businessand governmentesp. in power,telecoms, andfarm‐to‐marketroads.

Pro; seeks more PPPs especially for agriculture

He’s likely to continue PNoy’sflagship infra program

But it suffered delays under his leadership as Secretary of DOTC

Pro

Issued PPP ordinance to hasten implementation of projects in Davao

city

Stand on key issues 2



K‐12 programPro; wants

it complemented by an apprentice

ship program.

Pro Pro Against

Reproductive Health

(RH)Anti

Pro

The existinglaw could be

further strengthened

Pro

Had an active role in pushing for the RH Bill

Pro

Under his watch Davao implemented its own pop’n control measure even before RH was enacted into law

Stand on key issues 3



Conditional Cash

Transfer program

Sees the viability ofthe CCT program;needs an exitmechanism thatwould channelmore resources toskills training.

Pro, but wants totackle hunger inmore directmanner

(Pushes for astandard lunchprogram)

Supports it

Has been promoting it to

LGUs

Would support but require some work

BBLIn favor as long as it is achieved within the framework of the Constitution

Against the passage of BBL in its current form

Positive stand on peace talks even

after the Mamasapano

incident

Doesn’t supportBBL as the Muslims

have never accepted Christian

domination

Stand on key issues 3…


In the worst case, what we have is:

A president who brings government to a standstill through inaction; or

A president who revives the ‘trapo’ tradition in a dynastic way; or

An inexperienced president who makes too many innocent gaffes; or

A maverick that could impose unacceptable constraints

The consequences are disturbing – at best


A president who is honest, ethical, hardworking and recognizes the need to be a risk‐taker; or

A president who lays the family aside, forgoes political obligations and just get things done; or

A president who appoints a highly experienced cabinet, listens to them and acts forthrightly on their advice; or

A president that revolutionizes society to be better

The worst of it all – no one hasany idea which way it will go

In the best case we can get:


What we need is ‐

Someone who can work with Congress; Roxas is weak here.

Someone who understands business; Poe and to a lesser extent, Binay and Duterte, are weak.

Someone who can negotiate on the international level – and understand the ramifications. None has shown any aptitude.

Someone who can empathize with and do something for the masses. Binay and Duterte shine here with Grace not too far behind. Mar is on a different level.


What we need is ‐

Someone who understands economics and the importance of applyingit to policy‐making. Mar should, but will he?.

Someone who will give back agriculturethe importance it needs. No one, maybe Duterte.

Someone who is technically savvy and visionary. Mar may be a bit ahead. But none really understands the massive change that is occurring in the world.

Someone who is prepared to “damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead.”Make the revolutionary changes needed. Duterte and maybe, surprisingly, Poe. She’s new to the game so no entrenched thinking, not the “analysis‐paralysis” likely under Roxas or trapo continuation of Binay.


The thing most going for the Philippinestoday is that it’s politically stable

We do not see an upset to the established democratic system

There may be some upset at the security level – the Muslims in Mindanao aren’t happy

But it can’t threaten national stability

The economy is sufficiently diverseand domestically

driven as to be little impactedby global events


But it can’t take capricious nay whimsical decisions

As this president did by banning mining

All support mining, although Mar is a slight risk But in other areas? Who knows?

They all understand, to varying degrees, the role of the private sector in an open market as being the

correct policy

So we don’t see any of them effecting a massive turnaround to

doing business


Getting more and better infrastructure built – faster!

Power supply availability Port congestion/logistics issues A new international airport built A greater shift to manufacturing FDI restrictions removed Revival of mining – competitively taxed Creation of millions of paying jobs

Economic:

Critical economic issues beyond Aquino


Critical economic issues beyond Aquino… 5

Economic: Reforms in the tax system ‐> toward lower, simpler taxes

(exemption of the small guy) whilst keeping collections high to support infra + anti‐poverty/basic social services spending

Greatly simplifying and computerizing the bureaucracy for business Overcoming PH disadvantages in ASEAN market liberalization Manila traffic


Critical issues for the next President

Constitutional change to the economic provisions – and political?

Significant reduction in corruptionat the top and at lower levels, particularly local governments

Imprisonment of more major corruptors—from both sides

Political:


Political:

Modified usage of a savings‐realignment scheme (DAP)

Implementation of an exit strategy for Conditional Cash Transfer – give beneficiaries jobs

Genuine emergency systems put in place

Critical political issues beyond Aquino… 4


Critical political issues beyond Aquino… 2

Implementation of disaster mitigation projects, finishing reconstruction post‐Haiyan

Conclusion of peace talks, that includes all Muslims and Moros

Resolution of Mamasapano massacre

Freedom of Information and other key reform bills business wants

Entering the AEC and TPP successfully

Dealing with Chinese incursions

Political:


WE GET THEM ALLVP Binay Mayor Duterte

Grace Poe Mar Roxas

03 September 03 July

23 November 10 December

COMING SOON

If Duterte runs we’ll get him back

THE WALLACE BUSINESS FORUM

WE TELL IT LIKE IT ISWE TELL YOU WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW


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Thank you!Thank you!

Documents

“PHILIPPINE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2016 – …philippinen.ahk.de/uploads/media/GPCCI_Economic_Forum...Philippines under Aquino A dishonest Chief Justice and obstinate Ombudsman kicked