Pharmaceutical Company Outlook to 2015

Pharmaceutical Company Outlook to 2015Analysis of the top pharma and biotech companies

Use this report to assess the outlook for the

PharmaVitae Universe through to 2015

Report summary

• This report provides a ‘macro’view of the PharmaVitae Universeover the period 2009-15

• Provides company-level, life-cycle, therapy area, and moleculetype analysis over 2009-15

• Allows comparison of historicaland forecast performances byvarious peer sets withPharmaVitae Universe

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RESEARCHSTORE


www.datamonitor.com/storeDatamonitor ReportPublished: Dec 10 | Code: HC00035-001

About this report

Pharmaceutical Company Outlook to 2015 RESEARCHSTORE

Introduction

Over 2003–09, the PharmaVitae Universe—comprised of the branded prescription pharmaceutical industry’s leading companies—enjoyed robust sales

growth at a CAGR of 7.1%. The forecast period is, however, expected to be significantly more challenging with the Universe forecast a sales CAGR of

just 1.3% over 2009–15.

Compounding this trend has been a difficulty in developing new products, particularly those that can compensate for blockbuster expiries. Those

companies insulted from generic competition—or able to gain revenue growth sourced from biologics or the targeting of niche indications and areas of

high unmet need will emerge as key growth players.

Key findings and highlights

• The PharmaVitae Universe is dominated by a number of large players: seven companies—Pfizer, Merck & Co., Sanofi-Aventis, Novartis,

GlaxoSmithKline, Roche and AstraZeneca—generate annual sales in excess of $30 billion, accounting for 51.9% of total PharmaVitae Universe

sales in 2009.

• Over 2009–15, 11 of the 43 branded pharma companies in the PharmaVitae Universe will exhibit a negative sales CAGR, with exposure to generic

competition acting as the primary barrier to revenue expansion.

• Of those companies forecast to record positive growth, only six are forecast to deliver a higher sales CAGR than the historical PharmaVitae

Universe average of 7.1%, demonstrating the continued challenges faced by the industry over the next few years.

Reasons to buy

• Assess the outlook for the PharmaVitae Universe through to 2015

• Evaluate the factors that will drive a PharmaVitae Universe sales CAGR of 1.3% over 2009-15, versus a CAGR of 7.1% over 2003-09

• Assess the differing forecast growth outlooks of each PharmaVitae peer set (Big Pharma, Mid-Pharma, Biologics and Japan Pharma)

“With around 68% of 2009 PharmaVitae Universe sales derived from productswhich either no longer benefit from patent protection or are exposed to the riskof expiry by 2015, competition posed by the generics industry is a deep rootedchallenge.”

Simon King, Principal Analyst - PharmaVitae



Sample pages


“With the ’patent cliff’ acting as an unprecedented barrier to sales growth formany companies, the industry has aligned itself to a number of strategies.Supporting the fundamental drive for innovation, business diversification andcost containment have emerged as integral policies at the corporate level.”

Simon King, Principal Analyst - PharmaVitae



Table of contents• About Datamonitor Healthcare

• About the PharmaVitae team

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION

• Data sourcing

• Further reading

CHAPTER 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• Key findings

• Overview of the PharmaVitae Universe outlook to 2015

• Introduction to the PharmaVitae Universe

• The company outlook to 2015

• PharmaVitae Universe launch/core/expiry analysis

• PharmaVitae Universe molecule type analysis

• PharmaVitae Universe M&A analysis

CHAPTER 3 THE BIG PHARMA OUTLOOK TO 2015

• Key findings

• Overview of Big Pharma to 2015

• Big Pharma company analysis

• Big Pharma launch/core/expiry analysis

• Big Pharma therapy area analysis

• Big Pharma molecule type analysis

CHAPTER 4 THE MID PHARMA OUTLOOK TO 2015

• Key findings

• Overview of Mid Pharma to 2015

• Mid Pharma company analysis

• Mid Pharma launch/core/expiry analysis

• Mid Pharma therapy area analysis

• Mid Pharma molecule type analysis

CHAPTER 5 THE BIOTECH OUTLOOK TO 2015

• Key findings

• Overview of Biotech to 2015

• Biotech company analysis

• Biotech launch/core/expiry analysis

• Biotech therapy area analysis

• Biotech molecule type analysis

CHAPTER 6 THE JAPAN PHARMA OUTLOOK TO 2015

• Key findings

• Overview of Japan Pharma to 2015

• Japan Pharma company analysis

• Japan Pharma launch/core/expiry analysis

• Japan Pharma therapy area analysis

• Japan Pharma molecule type analysis

CHAPTER 7 APPENDIX

• References

• Abbreviations

• Exchange rates

• About Datamonitor

• Datamonitor consulting

• Disclaimer

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Strategic overview of the PharmaVitae Universe, 2009–15

Table 2: PharmaVitae Universe overview by peer set, 2009–15

Table 3: Launch/core/expiry analysis (percentage of 2003 sales),

2003–09

Table 4: Launch/core/expiry analysis (percentage of 2009 sales),

2009–15

Table 5: Big Pharma peer set overview, 2009–15

Table 6: Big Pharma launch/core/expiry portfolios, 2009–15

Table 7: Mid Pharma peer set overview, 2009–15

Table 8: Mid Pharma launch/core/expiry portfolios, 2009–15

Table 9: Biotech peer set overview, 2009–15

Table 10: Biotech launch/core/expiry portfolios, 2009–15

Table 11: Japan Pharma peer set overview, 2009–15

Table 12: Japan Pharma launch/core/expiry portfolios, 2009–15

Table 13: Exchange rates, 2010

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: The PharmaVitae Explorer

Figure 2: PharmaVitae Universe prescription pharma sales ($bn) and

year-on-year growth rate (%), 2003-15

Figure 3: PharmaVitae Universe prescription pharma sales ($bn) and

year-on-year growth rate (%), 2003-15 (Big Pharma

unadjusted for M&A activity)




Table of contents (continued)Figure 4: PharmaVitae Universe prescription pharmaceutical sales

($bn) by company, 2009

Figure 5: PharmaVitae Universe prescription pharma sales CAGR (%)

by company, 2009–15

Figure 6: PharmaVitae Universe prescription pharma sales ($bn) by

company, 2015

Figure 7: PharmaVitae Universe launch/core/expiry analysis, change

in sales ($bn), 2003–09 and 2009–15


in sales (% 2009) by peer set, 2009–15


in sales (% 2009) by company, 2009–15

Figure 10: PharmaVitae Universe prescription pharma sales ($bn) by

molecule type, 2003–15

Figure 11: PharmaVitae Universe prescription pharma sales growth

($bn) by molecule type, 2009–15

Figure 12: PharmaVitae Universe company-by-company prescription

pharma sales growth ($m) by molecule type, 2009–15

Figure 13: PharmaVitae Universe prescription pharma sales growth

($bn) by source, 2002–08

Figure 14: Big Pharma peer set prescription pharma sales and growth

rate, 2003–15

Figure 15: Big Pharma peer set landscape, 2009–15

Figure 16: Big Pharma peer set companies, prescription pharma sales

($m), 2009


CAGR (%), 2009–15


($bn), 2009–15


($m), 2015

Figure 20: Big Pharma peer set growth by source of product ($m),

2003–09

Figure 21: Big Pharma peer set launch/core/expiry, 2003–15

Figure 22: Big Pharma companies launch/core/expiry ($bn), 2009–15

Figure 23: Big Pharma companies launch/core/expiry as % of 2009

prescription pharma sales, 2009–15

Figure 24: Big Pharma peer set, therapy area focus, 2003–15

Figure 25: Big Pharma company sales by therapy area ($m), 2009

Figure 26: Big Pharma company sales by therapy area ($m), 2015

Figure 27: Big Pharma peer set, molecule type focus, 2003–15

Figure 28: Big Pharma peer set growth by molecule type, 2009–15

Figure 29: Big Pharma companies molecule type focus (% prescription

pharma sales), 2009

Figure 30: Big Pharma companies, growth by molecule type, 2009–15

($bn)

Figure 31: Big Pharma companies molecule type focus (% prescription

pharma sales), 2015

Figure 32: Mid Pharma peer set prescription pharma sales and growth

rate, 2003–15

Figure 33: Mid Pharma peer set landscape, 2009–15

Figure 34: Mid Pharma peer set companies, prescription pharma sales

($m), 2009


CAGR (%), 2009–15


($bn), 2009–15


($m), 2015

Figure 38: Mid Pharma peer set growth by source of product ($m),

2003–09

Figure 39: Mid Pharma peer set launch/core/expiry, 2003–15

Figure 40: Mid Pharma companies launch/core/expiry ($bn), 2009–15

Figure 41: Mid Pharma companies launch/core/expiry (percentage of

2009 Prescription pharma sales), 2009–15

Figure 42: Mid Pharma peer set, therapy area focus, 2003–15

Figure 43: Mid Pharma company sales by therapy area ($m), 2009

Figure 44: Mid Pharma company sales by therapy area ($m), 2015

Figure 45: Mid Pharma peer set, molecule type focus, 2003–15

Figure 46: Mid Pharma peer set growth by molecule type, 2009–15

Figure 47: Mid Pharma companies molecule type focus (% prescription

pharma sales), 2009

Figure 48: Mid Pharma companies, growth by molecule type, 2009–15

Figure 49: Mid Pharma companies molecule type focus (% prescription

pharma sales), 2015

Figure 50: Biotech peer set Prescription pharma sales and growth rate,

2003–15

Figure 51: Biotech peer set landscape, 2009–15

Figure 52: Biotech peer set companies, prescription pharma sales

($m), 2009


CAGR (%), 2009–15


($bn), 2009–15


($m), 2015

Figure 56: Biotech peer set growth by source of product ($m), 2003–09

Figure 57: Biotech peer set launch/core/expiry, ($bn), 2003-15

Figure 58: Biotech companies launch/core/expiry ($bn), 2009–15

Figure 59: Biotech companies launch/core/expiry (percentage of 2009

prescription pharma sales), 2009–15

Figure 60: Biotech peer set, therapy area focus, 2003–15

Figure 61: Biotech company sales by therapy area ($m), 2009

Figure 62: Biotech company sales by therapy area ($m), 2015

Figure 63: Biotech peer set, molecule type focus, 2003–15

Figure 64: Biotech peer set growth by molecule type, ($bn), 2009–15

Figure 65: Biotech companies molecule type focus (% prescription

pharma sales), 2009

Figure 66: Biotech companies, growth by molecule type, ($m), 2009–

15

Figure 67: Biotech companies molecule type focus (% prescription

pharma sales), 2015

Figure 68: Japan Pharma peer set prescription pharma sales and

growth rate, 2003–15

Figure 69: Japan Pharma peer set landscape, 2009–15

Figure 70: Japan Pharma peer set companies, prescription pharma

sales ($m), 2009


sales CAGR (%), 2009–15


sales ($bn), 2009–15


sales ($m), 2015




Table of contents (continued)Figure 74: Japan Pharma peer set growth by source of product ($m),

2003–09

Figure 75: Japan Pharma peer set launch/core/expiry, ($bn), 2003–15

Figure 76: Japan Pharma companies launch/core/expiry ($bn), 2009–

15

Figure 77: Japan Pharma companies launch/core/expiry (percentage of

2009 prescription pharma sales), 2009–15

Figure 78: Japan Pharma peer set, therapy area focus, 2003–15

Figure 79: Japan Pharma company sales by therapy area ($m), 2009

Figure 80: Japan Pharma company sales by therapy area ($m), 2015

Figure 81: Japan Pharma peer set, molecule type focus, 2003–15

Figure 82: Japan Pharma peer set growth by molecule type, ($m),

2009–15

Figure 83: Japan Pharma companies molecule type focus (%

prescription pharma sales), 2009

Figure 84: Japan Pharma companies, growth by molecule type, ($m),

2009–15

Figure 85: Japan Pharma companies molecule type focus (%

prescription pharma sales), 2015




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