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Petrobras Master plan 2009-2013: A good summary showing all high level 5-year growth innitiatives.
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Strategic Plan 2009-2013January 26, 2009
DISCLAIMER
The presentation may contain forecasts about future events. Such forecasts merely reflect the expectations of the Company's management. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar or analogous expressions, are used to identify such forecasts. These predictions evidently involve risks and uncertainties, whether foreseen or not by the Company. Therefore, the future results of operations may differ from current expectations, and readers must not base their expectations exclusively on the information presented herein. The Company is not obliged to update the presentation/such forecasts in light of new information or future developments. Figures for 2009 on are estimates or targets.
The United States Securities and Exchange Commission permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual production or conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally producible under existing economic and operating conditions. We use certain terms in this presentation, such as oil and gas resources, that the SEC’s guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings withthe SEC.
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR US INVESTORS
Market Value as of July 1, 2009
2008 Oil & Gas Production
2008 Refining Capacity
2008 Proven Reserves (SEC)
A WORLD-CLASS, PUBLIC, INTEGRATED ENERGY COMPANY
Note: Peer companies selected above have a majority of capital traded in the public markets.
Source: Evaluate Energy and Company reportsSource: Evaluate Energy and Company reports
Source: PFC Energy WRMS (barrels per calendar day, considering company % shareholding and including JVs)
(bln boe)
(mmboe/d)
(mcb/d)
3.9 3.8
3.2
2.5 2.4 2.4 2.31.9 1.8
XOM BP RDS CVX PBR COP TOT STL ENI
299828
2,223 2,083
5,675
2,6002,9173,119
3,905
XOM RDS BP COP TOT PBR CVX ENI STL
3
Market Value as of December 31, 2008
52.277.296.8 93.6
406.1
128.7143.6150.3161.1
XOM RDS CVX BP TOT PBR ENI COP STL
Source: Bloomberg
(US$
bn)
5.66.6
10.210.511.211.211.7
17.9
23.0
XOM BP RDS PBR C VX T OT C OP ENI ST L
Announced 10 billion boe in potential recoverable reserves (from Pre-salt blocks of Tupi, Iara, EspíritoSanto pre-salt and Golfinho ring-fence)Increased production by 7% to 2,436 thousand boe/dIncreased gas production by 21%Added +one million bbls of new production capacityIncreased net revenues 54%1
Increased net income by 56%1
DELIVERING OUTSTANDING GROWTH
Since August 2007 when we released ourlast strategic plan, we have:
EXCELLENT PERFORMANCE
13Q 2008 vs. 3Q 2007 4
IMPRESSIVE RECORD OF ACCELERATING DEVELOPMENT
Prod
uctio
n(b
/d)
Discovery of giant fields in Campos Basin inc. Albacora (1984)
Discovery of the Pre-salt, including Parati (2006)
Number of years
Production since founding of Petrobras (1954)
12 y
ears
22 y
ears
16 y
ears
27 y
ears
45 y
ears
54 y
ears
5
Discovery of Garoupa in the Campos Basin (1974)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
RDS PBR TOT XOM PTR SLB BP CVX SPC BHI STL ENI HAL BHP GAZP
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2007 R&D % of Revenues
US$ mm % of Revenues
A CONTINUED COMMITMENT TO R&D…
Source: PFC Energy
Top 10 2007 R&D Spenders in the Energy Sector
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
International
G&E
Corporate
Downstream
E&P
6
GIVES US A COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE IN THE DEEPWATER
2007 Gross Global Operated Deepwater Production (mboe/d)
PBR
23%
XOM15%
RDS13%
STL13%
BP9%
CVX7%
APC6%
TOT6%
BG4%
HESS2%
ENI2%
Source: PFC Energy | Note: Est imat ed volu mes above reflect wh at operators are respon sib le for produ cing , not what they keep on a n et working interest o r entitlement basis. M inimu m wat er d epth is 300 met ers; eleven operators above account for 94% of glob al deep water produ ction in 2007.
Petrobras operates 23% of global deepwater production
7
STRATEGIC VISION: TO BE ONE OF THE WORLD’S FIVE LARGEST PUBLICLY TRADED OIL PRODUCERS
2007 (SEC) reserves and production
XOM
RDS
BP
CVXTOT COP
PBR
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500
Production (mboe/d)
Reserves (mm boe
)
ProductionTarget: 2009
ProductionTarget: 2013
ProductionTarget: 2020
8
2007 Total Oil Consumption by Country (mmbo/d)
DOMINANT POSITION IN A LARGE AND GROWING EMERGING MARKET
Source: BP Statistical Review 2008, PFC Energy
Total Oil Consumption mb/d (index)
Brazil is world’s ninth largest oil consumer
Brazil oil consumption growing at 2.4% p.a.OECD oil consumption growing at 1% p.a.
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Brazil OECD World
2.4
1.61.71.71.92.02.22.22.32.42.72.7
5.1
0
2
4
6
8
US
China
Japa
n
India
Russia
Germ
any
S. Korea
Canada
Brazil
Saud
i
Mexico
Fran
ce
Italy UK
Iran
20.77.9
9
Significant light oil and gas discoveries have been made in the Espirito Santo Basin
82% of our total crude production currently comes from Campos Basin
RoncadorMarlimAlbacoraIaraJupiterTupiCarioca
ThunderHorse
AgbamiAkpo
Kizomba
Girassol, Jaz, Rosa
Dalia
Khurais
Kashagan
KurmangaziShahDeniz Azadegan
Anaran
Sakhalin II
Sakhalin I
HIGH-POTENTIAL PORTFOLIO IN ONE OF THE WORLD’S MOST EXCITING PROVINCES...
Development of the Santos Basin sub-salt play will drive our long-term production growth
Circle size indicates estimated reserves
10
AND APPLYING UNIQUE EXPERTISE TO SELECTED INTERNATIONAL OPPORTUNITIES
Projected equity production from Petrobras international operations(Thousand boed)
124 142210
409100 103
131
223
2008 2009 2013 2020Oil and NGL Natura l Gas
8.8% p.y.244224
9.0% p.y.
341
632
Production considering Petrobras’ participation in projects 11
BUSINESS AREA
79%
7%
8%5% 1%
E&P RTCPG&E DistributionCorporate
INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS
COUNTRY
16%
5%
28%
12%
22%
17%
Argentina AngolaUSA NigeriaNew Opportunities Other Countries
Total InvestmentsUS$ 15.9 billion
12
Biofuels InvestmentsUS$ 2.8 billion
Participate in Brazilian ethanol chain anddevelop global markets for Brazilian ethanolParticipate sustainably in the biodiesel business in Brazil and with selectiveinternational investmentsDevelop competitive technologies to producebiofuels from residual biomass
GROWING OPTIONS IN BIOFUELS AND LOW-CARBON TECHNOLOGIES...
84%
16%
Ethanol Biodiesel
STRATEGY: To establish a global presence in the biofuels segment, with a particular focus on
biodiesel and ethanol
13
WHICH CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN IMPORTANCE
Brazilian Biodiesel Market andPetrobras Production Target*Ethanol Exports
* Base case: Demand B5 in 2013
1.08
4.23
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
2009 2013
40.6% p.y.
535(20%)
401 (29%)
2.65
1.37
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2009 2013
17.9% p.y.
PetrobrasMarket-share
(mm m³) (mm m³)
14
LOOMING UNCERTAINTIESOil pricesCostsFuture demandFuture supplyCompetitiveness of biofuelsDevelopment of game-changing technologies
GEOPOLITICSGlobal economic crisisConflicts and warsPolitical tensionsEnvironmental implicationsElectionsRising tides of nationalism
VITAL RESOURCESGoods & servicesHuman resources
• Aging workforce • Difficulties in attracting
new workers• Shortage of specialized
candidates
IMPORTANT DECISIONS MUST BE MADE IN A TIME OF UNPRECEDENTED UNCERTAINTY...
15
GLOBAL OIL DEMAND SCENARIOS
HOWEVER, THE MEDIUM/LONG-TERM OIL MARKET OUTLOOK REMAINS VERY STRONG
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2007, EIA International Energy Outlook 2007
Production in most non-OPEC countries is at a plateau or in decline;Global oil production capacity will be challenged to meet projected demand growth;Lower demand and capital spending during current down-cycle will postpone the crunch, but not eliminate it.
Existing production0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Natural decline
Observed decline
Existing productionNatural decline
Actual declineExisting production
mm b/d
Global demand scenarios
EIA/DOE High Demand Scenario
IEA Reference Scenario
EIA/DOE Low Demand Scenario
2030 | 75 – 90 mm2020 | 55 – 65 mm
Additional RequiredCapacity (b/d)
16
AND PRE-SALT CAN BE DEVELOPED AT A RELATIVELY LOW COST
Source: IEA – Outlook 2008
Expected Costs of Production
Prod
uctio
nco
sts
(US$
/bbl
-200
8)
Reserves (bn bbls)
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 100000
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Deepwater andUltra-deep water
Produced MEN A
Otherconvention
al o il
CO
�-
EOR EO
R Arc
tic
Heavy oiland
bitumen
OilShales
Gas to liquids
Coal to liquids
Petrobras expectedmaximum break-even cost
17
A VISION FOR INTEGRATED GROWTH TO 2020…
Commitment to Sustainable Development
Integrated Growth Profitability Social & Environmental Responsibility
Expand operations in target markets for oil, oil products, petrochemicals, gas and energy, biofuels and distribution and to be recognized as a model integrated energy company
Grow oil and gas production in a sustainable manner, and become one of the five largest oil producers in the world
To have a global presence in the biofuels business with participation in the biodiesel and ethanol businesses
Capture value added through expansion of integrated operations in refining, commercialization, logistics & distribution with a focus on the Atlantic Basin and Far East
Consolidate leadership in the Brazilian natural gas market while establishing an international presence and increase domestic electricity generation business
Expand integrated petrochemicals operations while capturing synergies within Petrobras
Operational, management, human resources and technological excellence
BiofuelsE&PDownstream
(RTC) Distribution Gas & Energy Petrochemicals
18
Business Plan 2008-12
26%
1%2%
6%
4%2%
59%
E&P
RTC
G&E
Petrochemicals
Biofuels
Distribution
Corporate
US$ 112.4 billion
65.129.6
6.74.3 2.6
1.52.5
Business Plan 2009-2013
25%
2%2%
7%3%
2%
59%
E&P
RTC
G&E
Petrochemicals
Biofuels
Distribution
Corporate
US$ 174.4 billion
104.6 (*)43.4
11.8
5.6 3.02.83.2
(*) US$ 17.0 billion allocated to Exploration
AND A CAREFULLY CRAFTED SPENDING PROGRAM TO SUPPORT THAT VISION
19
Evolution of Capex: Plan 2009-2013 vs. Plan 2008-2012
WITH MOST OF THE INCREASES RELATED TO NEW PROJECTS
(*) Change in Business Model, excluded projects, change in aschedule| Note: Investment levels do not reflect expected declines in future costs
111.2
174.4
8.1
47.9
17.13.4 2.9
020406080
100120140160180200
2009‐13 S pend(as declared in
prev iousB us inessP lan)
+ NewProjects
+ C os tIncreas e
+ Ajus tment toprojects
+ E xchangerate effect
‐ Others* 2009‐2013Inves tment
P lan
US$
billi
on
20
PRIORITIZING E&P PROJECTS
77%
1%4%12%
6%
E&P RTC
G&E Biofuels
(PQF, Dist., Corp)
US$ 47.9 Billion • Petrobras strategy gives first priority to meeting production targets
• E&P accounts for 76% of new project spending (US$ 28 bn for pre-salt)
36.6
3.1
5.72.1
0.4
21
FLEXIBLE PIPELINE OF PROJECTS 2009-13: BY PHASE
A substantial portion of our investment plan has yet to be approved and contracted
Only projects with a positive NPV at cost of capital will be approved
28.3%
49.2%
1.5%
14.3%
6.7%
Phase I (Under Evaluation)
Phase II (Conceptual)
Phase III (Design)
Phase IV (Approved)
Acquisition
85.8
11.7
49.3
24.9
2.7US$ bn
More than 530 Large Projects in Portfolio
22
Create jobs and income
Reinforce internal market
Strengthen Brazilian economy
INCREASING LOCAL CONTENT STRENGTHENS PETROBRAS BUSINESS IN THE LONG RUN
From a business perspective...
From a Sustainability stand point...
Local content
Expanded supply capacity
New suppliers
Lower prices
More equipment availability
Increased flexibility
23
OPTIMIZING COSTS
Planning
Oversight
Culture
• More details less risk• Simplification• Standardization (i.e. 8 identical Pre-salt
FPSOs)• Carefully considering industry-standards
• Equipment purchases Smallerquantities allows participation of mid-sized companies
• Closer oversight
• Reducing redundancies
Opt
imiz
ing
Cost
s Planning
Oversight
Culture
24
A COMMITMENT TO OUR WORLD-CLASS WORKFORCE
Participants in Training Programs
27,000 new employees since 2002
Forecasted demand for workers in the Petrobras supply chain: 112,625 employees
Number of Employees
The Brazilian government, with Petrobras support, has a specific program to meet this demand
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
46,72348,798
52,03753,904
68,93162,266
74,240
Post-grad: 845
University: 23,084
ENGINEERINGCIVIL
CONSTRUCTIONCONSTRUCTION &
ACQUISITION MAINTENANCE5,967 15,020 84,576 7,062
PhD: 232
Master: 1,098
774
989 1,0431,213
2,468
2,101
2,822
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Employees w ith an undergraduate degree, but lacking previous experience, attend Petrobras University for up to 1 year before starting work
25
CONSISTENTLY DELIVERING RESERVES GROWTH…
123% reserve replacement rate in 2008. Over the past decade, reserve replacement has principally been driven by internal additions in Brazil
Aiming for a reserves to production life of 15 yearsMore than 50% as undeveloped reserves
13.0412.35 13.1712.52
0.880.88
0.921.23
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Production(0.70 bn boe)
13.02 13.23 13.75
Production(0.67 bn boe)
Reserves Replacement
Index(174%)
Reserves Replacement
Index(131%)
Production(0.75 bn boe)
Reserves Replacement
Index(123%)
Production(0.70 bn boe)
Reserves Replacement
Index(124%)
13.92 14.09
26
Petrobras Total Production (000 b/d)
AND PURSUING NEW PROJECTS WHILE MAXIMIZING PRODUCTION FROM EXISTING ASSETS
8.8% p.y.2,4002,3082,3052,2232,0272,042
1,8121,637
5.6% p.y.
5,729
3,655
2,757
7.5% p.y.
1.335 1.500 1.540 1.493 1.684 1.778 1.792 1.855 2.0502.680
3.920
232252 251 265
274 277 273 321463
634
1.177
161 168163 142 126 124
142
210
409
131
223
3544
10310010910196
94852324
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2013 2020
Oil production ‐ Brazi l Ga s producti on ‐ Bra zil Oil Product ‐ Internationa l Ga s Product ‐ Inte rna ti onal
27
AT A VERY COMPETITIVE COST.
PFC Energy / Note: (Unproved & Proved Property Acquisition + Exploration & Development Expenditure)/(Revisions + Improved Recovery + Extensions & Discoveries + Purchases); 3-year time frame
Total 2007 F&D costs per barrel (3-year roll)
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
LUKO
ILExxonM
obil
EnCa
na
Petro‐Canada
Devon
Woo
dside
Petrob
ras
Can Natl Res
Noble
Hess
BG
Apache
Murph
y
Occidental
Maratho
n
Pioneer
Cono
coPhillips
BHP Billiton
Nexen
Shell
StatoilHyd
ro
Chevron BP
Anadarko
Talisman
OMV
Eni
TOTA
L
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Petrobras
Total F&D costs per barrel (3-year roll)
Peer Group
28
EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION
EFFECTIVE STRATEGY 2009-2013
Discover and develop resources in Brazil and
internationally, maintaining a reserves-to-production ratio
of 15 years
Delineate and develop the pre-salt cluster and
new oil provinces in Southeast Brazil
Apply innovative deepwater expertise in
new high-potential frontier provinces in
Brazil and abroad
Increase production in Brazil and abroad,
optimizing the use of existing infrastructure
Develop an integrated global natural gas network to supply
Petrobras’ markets
30
FOCUSED & DISCIPLINED INVESTMENT
Total Investments of US$ 104.6 billion in E&P through 2013,of which US$ 92 will be spent in Brazil
17%
12%
58%
13%
Exploration
Santos Pre-salt
Development
International
31
E&P CASH FLOW: US$ / BOE (2007)
$20.28$19.91
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
Petrobras Peer average*
E&P REVENUES: US$ / BOE (2007)
TO DELIVER RETURNS ON PAR WITH THE MAJORS
Source: Company reports*Peers: ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, TOTAL, RD Shell and BP
$46.93 $47.92
$0.00
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
Petrobras Peer average*
32
INDUSTRY-LEADING PRODUCTION GROWTH
Source: Evaluate Energy (2004-2008 CAGR)
Petrobras Oil and Gas Production (000 boe/d)
33
2,020
2,217
2,298 2,301
2,400
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
4.4% CAGR
7,75
5,334,40 4,38
2,48
-3,71-2,57-1,79-1,021,36-3,78
Con
ocoP
hilli
ps
Luk
oil
Pet
robr
as
Pet
roC
hina
EN
I
C
hevr
on
BP
Exx
onM
obil
Tot
al
R
D S
hell
R
epso
l YP
F
CAGR (2004-2008) - %
Petrobras Total Production (000 b/d)
AND PURSUING NEW PROJECTS WHILE MAXIMIZING PRODUCTION FROM EXISTING ASSETS
8.8% p.y.2,4002,3082,3052,2232,0272,042
1,8121,637
5.6% p.y.
5,729
3,655
2,757
7.5% p.y.
1.335 1.500 1.540 1.493 1.684 1.778 1.792 1.855 2.0502.680
3.920
232252 251 265
274 277 273 321463
634
1.177
161 168163 142 126 124
142
210
409
131
223
3544
10310010910196
94852324
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2013 2020
Oil production ‐ Brazi l Ga s producti on ‐ Bra zil Oil Product ‐ Internationa l Ga s Product ‐ Inte rna ti onal
34
ESTIMATED OIL PRODUCTION IN BRAZIL
Out of the 824 kb/d in domestic production growth through 2013, 566 kb/d will come from fields where we have already declared commerciality
2008 2009 2013 2015 2020
Light Oil ≥ 31º API Medium Oil Heavy Oil ≤ 22º API
1,855
2,6803,340
3,920
2,050
The PN 2008-2012 Brazil oil target for 2015 was 2,812 k b/d. The new target represents an increase of 19% (+528 kb/d)
The biggest contribution in the domestic production growth of 1,240 kb/d between 2013 and 2020 will come from pre salt production
Petrobras Total Production in Brazil (000 b/d)
35
ROBUST PROJECT PIPELINE - 2009
Light Oil Heavy Oil Natural Gas
1,855 51
thou
sand
b/d
Milli
on m
3/da
y
2,050
2008 2009 2008 2009
In addition to the five new projects starting-up in 2009, P-52 and P-54, which will reach peak production this year, and P-53, which started operation in December 2008, will contribute to production increases
73
P51MARLIM SUL
FRADE
EWT Tupi
JABUTI
PARQUE D ASCONCHAS URUCU
CANAPU
CAMARUPIM
LAGOSTA
MANATIexpansion
P53MARLI M LESTE
SIRI 1
10.5% 43.1%
36
AND 2010-2013
Pre-salt Natural GasHeavy oil
P-57JUBARTE
CACHALOTE.BALEIA FRANCA,
BALEIA ANÃ
TUPIPilot
BALEIA AZUL
P-56MARLIM SUL
Oil
Oil and gas
URUGUÁTAMBAÚ
MEXILHÃO
JURUÁARACANGA
2.682.58
2.432.25
2.05
3.323.20
3.02
2.79
2.51
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
milli
on b
oe/d
P-62 RONCADOR
P55 RONCADOR
P-61PAPA-TERRA
P-63PAPA-TERRA
TUPI 1Pilot Expansion
GUARÁ 1 or IARA 1P-51
MARLI M SUL
FRADE
EWT Tupi
JABUTI
PARQUE D ASCONCHAS
URUCU
CANAPU
CAMARUPIM
LAGOSTA
MANATIexpansion
37
MAJOR PROJECT OVERVIEW 2009-2013
180 th b/d
100 th b/d
< 100 th b/d
20092010201120122013
TraditionalCampos Basin
Espírito Santo Basin
Parque das Baleias/ Espírito Santo Pre-salt
Pre-Salt Cluster
38
SIGNIFICANT RESOURCE BASE YET TO BE DEVELOPED
Announced recoverable volumes in the pre-salt can double our reserves…
~23.5 -28 bn boe
Lowerestimates
9.5
Higherestimates
+4.513.920 14.093
747 920
2007 ProvenReserves*
- AccumulatedProduction in
2007
+ Incorporatedas ProvenReserves
2008 ProvenReserves*
+ AnnouncedPre-salt
discoveries(Tupi, Iara andEspírito Santo)
AnnouncedReserves
bn boe
39* Accordi ng to Society of Petrol eum Engineers – SPE
IMPLEMENT INTEGRATED PROGRAMS TO IMPROVE OIL RECOVERY, THAT:
OPTIMIZE RECOVERY FROM EXISTING FIELDS
Reduce the natural decline rate of oil producing fieldsIncrease reserves through the improvement of recovery factorsOptimize costs, increasing reserves and production Production
TimeProjects to increase reservesProjects to reduce decline rate
Natural decline rate
Employing IOR techniques
40
ALBACORA
P-25
Raw Water Injection (RWI)
P-31
Albacora field: a model where innovative technologiesare used to revitalize production.
RECAGE identified complex technical limitations onplatforms P-25 and P-31 (Albacora). It was not possible to inject enough water in the production units.
Solution to recover production:CENPES developed RWI (Raw Water Injection), technology that reinject seawater into a reservoir through an injection well, thereby increasing production capacity.
The system uses electrical submersible pumps and filters on the sea-bed, without disturbing surface installations.
41
CARMÓPOLIS
SERGIPECarmópolis field: started-up production in 1963 and today is one of two examples of the most successful implementation of an solution to enhance productivity.
It was in this field that “rigless” technology was introduced: replacing rigs, to fracture a well utilizing hydraulic power.
Direct Effects:• Increased production;• Reduced well costs;• Improved the recovery factor: from 27% to 30% (in 2009);• New expected peak production: 25.4 mmb/d (in 1990) to
31.6 mmb/d (in 2009);• Extended the useful life of the field an additional 18 years:
from 2007 to 2025.
42
CARMÓPOLIS
Expected increase of 36%
Carmópolis Production (b/d)
Forecas
t 200
9
43
DIVERSIFIED AND FLEXIBLE PORTFOLIO
ESPÍRITO SANTO
Golfinho
Parque das Baleias/Pre-Salt Espírito Santo
VITÓRIA
150 MM boeOPTIMIZING EXISTING SYSTEMS IN THE GOLFINHO FIELD:
Moving FPSO Capixaba (100 Mb/d) from Golfinho to Parque das Baleias in anticipation of the development of the Espirito Santo pre-salt ;
Developing new discoveries in the RingFence of Golfinho (150 million boe) using FPSO Cidade de Vitória;
Relocating a well from FPSO Capixaba to FPSO Cidade de Vitória
44
USING CONTRACTS AND LEASES TO SECURE NEEDED DRILLING ASSETS
29 RIGS CONTRACTED PLUS 28 TO BE LEASED UP TO 2017, MAKING A TOTAL OF 57 NEW DRILLING RIGS
Ocean YorktownPride Mexico Borgny DolphinOcean ConcordFalcon-100
Water Depth 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-2017
0-999m
Petrobras XVIPetrobras XVIIAl askan StarAtlantic StarOcean WittingtonP. South Atlantic
Petrobras XIV
1000-1999m
Petrobras XPetrobras XXIIIP. South AmericaP. PortlandP. Rio de JaneiroP. BrazilP. Carlos WalterOcean YatziOcean Alliance
Ocean WinnerT. DrillerSedco 710N. Therald MartinN. Leo SegeriusN. MuravlenkoLouisianaS.C. LancerPeregrine I
Olinda StarOcean Worker
≥ 2000m
Sedco 707Dw. NavigatorN. Roger EasonO. ClipperN. Paul Wolf
Noble Dave BeardSevan DrillerWest TaurusWest EminenceSSV Victoria
Gold StarPantanalNorbe VIDelba IIIWest OrionPetrorig IILone StartAmazonia
Delba IVSchain TBN1Sevan BrasilDS Carolina
Delba VDelba VIScorpionDelba VIIDelba VIIINorbe IXSchahin TBN2Norbe VIIIEtesco 8
+ 28 new units to be leased
Total per year 34 7 8 5 9 28
Cumulative 41 49 54 63 91
45
ESTABLISHED EXPLORATION PORTFOLIO AT DIFFERENT STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT
Potiguar
SEAL& REC & TUC
Bahia Sul
Espírito Santo
Campos
Santos
Ceara & Potiguar
Pelotas
Margem Equatorial
Solimões
São Francisco
PetrobrasOthers
Brazil Exploration: 2009-13 US$ 13.8 bnExploratory Area: 157.59 km²278 exploratory blocks30 appraisal plans303 production concessions
46
0
250
500
750
1.000
1.250
1.500
1.750
2.000
2.250
2.500
2.750
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009‐2013
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Exploration Capex
US$ mm Success Rate
EXPLORING TO LEVERAGE EXCITING FRONTIER PLAYS IN OUR OWN BACKYARD
47
CoreFocusNew Venture
INDIA
PAKISTAN
IRAN
TURKEY
LIBYAPORTUGAL
SENEGAL
NIGERIA
ANGOLA MOZAMBIQUE
TANZANIABRAZIL
ARGENTINA
BOLIVIA
PERU
EQUADOR
COLOMBIA
VENEZUELAMEXICO
CUBAUS GoM
…AND APPLYING UNIQUE EXPERTISE TO SELECTED INTERNATIONAL OPPORTUNITIES
48
PRE-SALT PROVINCE
Tested wells Campos HCExploratory BlocksPre-Salt reservoirs
MINA GERAIS
SÃO PAULO
PARANÁ
Total area of the Province: 112,000 km2
Area under concession: 41,000 km2 (38%)Area not under concession: 71,000 km2 (62%)Area with Petrobras interest: 35,000 km2 (31%)
RIO DE JANEIRO
ESPIRITO SANTO
49
PRE-SALT OVERVIEW
US$ 28.9 bn in capex through 2013 related to pre-salt development
Initial oil production via FPSOs
Initial natural gas production brought onshore via pipeline
Six production units in Campos and Espírito Santo pre-salt starting-up by 2014, excluding extended well tests
Estimated oil production of 219 kb/d in 2013
~7 mm m3/d of natural gas available to the market by 2013
Many production systems programmed through 2020
Oil production in 2015: 582 kb/d
Oil production 2020: 1,815 kb/d; natural gas available to the market: 40 mm m3/d
50
SANTOS BASIN PRE-SALT CLUSTER
Rio de Janeiro50 km
Tupi
Carioca
ParatiIara
GuaraBM-S-21BR 80% BM-S-24
BR 80%
BM-S-10BR 65% BM-S-11
BR 65%
BM-S-9BR 45%
BM-S-8BR 66%
BM-S-22BR 20%
Azulão
Bem-te-v i
Caramba
Major discoveries include: Tupi, Iara, Carioca, Guara, Jupiter, Parati, Bem-te-vi and CarambaMulti-billion barrel reserves potentialGood oil quality: medium-lightSeismic activity and appraisal wellsunderwayRecoverable resources announced: 5-8 bn boe in Tupi and 3-4 bn boe in Iara Three production systems by 2014: Tupi, Iara and Guara
51
TUPI
Rio de Janeiro50 kmExtended well test (EWT)• Tupi-Sul re-entry underway• Vessel conversion completed• First production Q2 2009• Up to 14,000 b/d
Initial development sanctioned(pilot)• Major contracts awarded• Oil 100,000 b/d • Gas pipeline 216 km to Mexilhão• Production late-2010
Full field development• Development optimization studies• Resources 5-8 bn boe• Expansion in the Pilot in 2013
Tupi
52
2007.....
2012t.....2009
1st Oil – EWT Tupi (Mar/09)
2010
1st Oil – Tupi Pilot (Dec/10))
2017
Significantproduction level
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY (example: TUPI)
• Area Delimitation
• Analyze reservoir flow
• Fractured well performance• Complete sampled core• Material analysis vs. CO2
EWT (Mar/2009), Tupi Pilot and appraisal wells
Phase 0
Information Acquisition
Objective
Focus
PhasesDefinitive Development
• Analyze water and gas/CO2 injection behavior
• Test adjustments on FPU related to CO2
• Test improvements in well projects
• Apply previous dominated concepts and technologies with necessary adjustments to reach significant production by 2017
• Aggregate innovative technical solutions to optimize project performance
Implementation of “Y”production units
Implementation of “X” production units(Replicant FPSOs)
Phase 1A Phase 1B
53
IARA
3-4 bn boe of resource Thick reservoir sectionOutline forward plans
• Re-entry/test of Iara-1 in Q1/2 2009• Full field development studies • Appraisal wells 2010/11• EWT with production in 2010/11• Production FPSO by 2014
54
• Re-entry/test of Guara-1, Q1/2 2009• Full field development studies• Appraisal wells 2010/11• Possible EWT in 2010/11• Production FPSO by 2014
High quality reservoirOutline of forward plans:
GUARÁ
Rio de Janeiro
50 km
Guará
55
MG
RJ
Espí
rito
Sant
oPeroá
Camarupim
Carapó
Canapu
JUB
Catuá
Baleia Azul AB A
OST
ARG
PRBCXR
CHT
N AU
Golfinho
UTG Cacimbas
UTG Sul Capixaba
UPGN Lagoa Parda
Cangoá
Baleia Franca
Terminal Barra do Riacho
Infrastructure in-placeP-34 at Jubarte field, first pre-salt production: excellent results, prod. up to 18 k b/d FPSO Seillean started in dec/08 as pilot system of Cachalote (CHT) fieldFPSO Capixaba will move from Golfinho field to Cachalote/Baleia Franca (BFR) in 1H10 FPSO Pipa II will start in 2H10 as Baleia Azul (BAZ) pilot systemBaleia Azul first definitive production unit by 4Q12Natural gas production transported via pipeline
Rio Doce
Linhares
Aracruz
Marataizes
Anchieta
Guarapari
Vila Velha
VITÓRI A
Presidente Kennedy
Sul-Norte CapixabaGas pipeline
12 a 24” –160 km7 a 15 MM m3/d
24” – 66 km25 MM m3/d
ESPÍRITO SANTO PRE-SALT
Sul CapixabaGas pipeline12” – 83 km4,5 MM m3/d
56
8731,183160
463
632
157 422
62
2013 2015 2017 2020
Pre‐Salt Petrobras Pre‐salt Partners
PRE-SALT OIL PRODUCTION
Petrobras Pre-salt Oil Production (000 b/d)
2009 -20202009-2013
98.8 18.6 Santos Basin Pre-salt
111.4 28.9 Petrobras Total Pre-salt Capex (Production Development)
12.610.3Espírito Santo Pre-salt (includes post-salt fields)
Petrobras Pre-salt Capex Through 2020
219
1,3361,815
582
57
DOWNSTREAM
VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SYSTEM TO CAPTURE SYNERGIES WITHIN THE VALUE CHAIN
PetrobrasOther Companies
Upstream Operations Downstream Operations
Existing PipelinesRefineriesMarine Terminal In Land Terminal
59
INVESTING IN REFINING INFRASTRUCTURE
As Petrobras continues to grow its upstream business, the need for a compatible refining infrastructure becomes more critical
1,7791,986TOTAL BRAZIL
67Fortaleza - Lubnor (CE)
4253Capuava - Recap (SP)
4146Manaus - Reman (AM)
132151Gabriel Passos - Regap (MG)
153170Pres. Bernardes - RPBC (SP)
169189Pres. Getúlio Vargas - Repar (PR)
148189Alberto Pasqualini - Refap (RS)
236251Henrique Lage - Revap (SP)
243242Duque de Caxias -Reduc (RJ)
261323Landulpho Alves - Rlam (BA)
348365Paulínia - Replan (SP)
Troughput(000 b/d)
Capacity (000 b/d)Refineries
RLAM
RECAP
REDUC
REVAP
REPLAN
RECAPRPBCREPAR REFAP
LUBNORREMAN
With limited investment over the last 20 years, Petrobras will increase capacity to meet the needs of a growing domestic market
60
IMPROVING THE TRADE BALANCE
Imports (000 barrels/day)Exports (000 barrels/day)
263 335 353439
260246 262
234
2005 2006 2007 2008
Oil Oil P roducts
352 370 390 373
94 118 148 197
2005 2006 2007 2008
Oil Oil Products
Despite a current surplus in volumes, Petrobras continues to run a trade deficitTargeted investments aim to reduce the need for oil imports and increase oil products exports
61
FOCUSED STRATEGY TO ADD VALUE TO DOMESTIC CRUDE
Expand refining capacityin Brazil and internationally
Improve margins by expanding average
complexity
Use commercial and logistical partnerships to
expand presence in target markets
Increase production of basic petrochemicals, capturing
synergies within the Petrobras System
Optimize quality to make Petrobras the preferred fuels brand for consumers in Brazil
and abroad
62
73%
12%7%
8%
Refining
Pipelines & TerminalTransportShip Transport
Petrochemicals
INVESTING TO REALIZE THESE GOALS
• Adding values to domestic crude and producing diesel and gasoline in-line with international standards
• Investment targets Fuel Quality, Conversion and Expansion
Downstream InvestmentsUS$ 47.8 billion
63
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Source: PFC Energy
ADDRESSING THE NEED TO INCREASE THROUGHPUT CAPACITY AND COMPLEXITY...
PFC Average Complexity Index
Aver
age
Refin
ery
Thro
ughp
ut C
apac
ity (0
00 b
/d)
64
THE BENEFITS OF INTEGRATION
Return on Capital Employed
‐15%‐10%‐5%0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Integrated Upstream Players Refiners
ROCE
Integrated Companies: BP, Shell, Exxon, Conoco, Chevron, Total, ENI, Luke Oil and RepsolUpstream Players: Apache, Anadarko, Devon, EnCana, Nexen and TalismanRefiners: Valero, Reliance Industries, PKN Orlen, Sunoco and Tesoro
Source: PFC Energy 65
Source: Platts
INCREASING GROSS REFINING MARGINS...
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
US GasolineDownturn
Gross Refining Margins = Products prices minus crude oil
Margin WTI Cracking = USGC Margin of using WTI with cracking yields
Margin Maya Coking = USGC Margin of using Maya with coking yields
Margin: WTI Cracking Margin: Maya Coking
US Gulf Coast Gross Refining MarginsUS$/bbl
66
Source: Platts
AND CAPTURING THE LIGHT/HEAVY DIFFERENTIAL
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
US$/bbl
Spread Crude Oil Light-Heavy = WTI – Maya
Spread Oil Products Light-Heavy = (Unleaded USG + N2 Diesel USG)/2 – Fuel Oil 3% USG
WTI - Maya Diesel & Gasoline – Fuel Oil
67
Domestic Crude as a Percentage of Total Feedstock Processed
95%
78%80%76%79%
75%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2020
Petrobras’ refining site will be adapted to run more domestic crude, so capturing the
light/heavy differential and avoiding high acidity crude discounts
LESSENING IMPORTED CRUDE REQUIREMENTS FOR REFINING INPUTS
68
AND UPGRADING TO OPTIMIZE PERFORMANCE AND ENSURE SUSTAINABILITY
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Regular Gasoline Transition Period
Regular Gasoline 0,005% S
RECAP Diesel & Gasoline
REDUC Gasoline
REFAP Gasoline
REFAP Gasoline
RLAM Gasoline
RPBC Gasoline
REPAR Gasoline
REPLAN Gasoline
REVAP Gasoline
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Diesel S-1800
Diesel S-500
Diesel S-50
Diesel S-10
RECAP Diesel & Gasoline
RLAM Diesel
REFAP Diesel
REPLAN Diesel
REGAP Diesel
RPBC Diesel
REGAP Rev amp HDT
QUALITY OF GASOLINE QUALITY OF DIESEL
IMPROVING GASOLINE AND DIESEL QUALITY TO COMPLY WITH TIGHTER ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATIONS AND REDUCE EMISSIONS & GASES STREAMS
69
(000 b/d)
FAST GROWING DOMESTIC DEMAND…
230 257326 332 367 419250 218 255 24684 89 118 179738 783
901
1224112
150
182 202
274
400
214208
107119
2007 2008E 2013E 2020E
OthersFODieselQAVNaphtaGasolineLPG
1,906
3.3% p.y.
3.0% p.y.1,945
2,257
2,876
70
WILL BE MET BY INVESTMENTS TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE REFINING CAPACITY
Domestic Crude Throughput (000 b/d)
3,012
2,270
1,7911,779
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2020
71
REPLANRevamp
33 tho. bpd2010
Clara Camarão
2010
REVAP10 tho.bpd
2010
Premium I(600 th bpd)
andPremium II(300 th bpd)1st Fase:
20132nd Fase:
2015
UPB150 tho. bpd
Dez/2012
RNE230 tho.
bpd2011
REPARRevamp
25 tho. bpd2011
DOMESTIC REFINING CAPACITY ADDITIONS
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2009 - 2010 2010 - 2011 2011 - 2012 2012 - 2013
Thousand b/d
Distillation Capacity Conversion Capacity Treating Capacity
72
Access to oil products market
Access to raw material
Logistic potential
Shared infrastructure
Adaptation to social and environmental issues (sustainability)
Capital discipline and solid returns
Adaptation to international product quality specifications
Add value to stakeholder through accessing new markets abroad
MAIN DRIVERS FOR THE NEW REFINERIES
73
ADDRESSING GROWING DOMESTIC DEMAND FOR PETROCHEMICALS
1,607 1,6252,833
800 1,0701,651
2,353
3,212
380 436
587
784
990
728699
991
1,663
310 289
526
3,6662,202
1,293
412
671
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
PS
PVC
PET
PP
PE
(000 tons p.a.)
74
BY INTEGRATING THE DOWNSTREAM SUPPLY CHAIN THROUGH TARGETED INVESTMENTS
Investment decisions in this segment are based on the need to:Secure a natural hedge between petrochemical and refining cyclesDiversify into higher value-added products
Maintain flexibility and access to competitive feedstocksDevelop cost leadershipImprove competitiveness
QUATTOR
PRODUCTION1.020 kta ethene320kta propene1.040 kta PE 875 kta PP
37,3% Petrobras/Petroquisa56% UNIPAR | 6,6% BNDES
PQU
QUATTOR
PU
RIOPOL
UDQ
BRASKEM
PRODUCTION2.480 kta ethene 1.180 kta propene 510 ktaPVC 1.975 kta PE1.090 kta PP
23% Petrobras/Petroquisa38% Grupo Odebrecht36% Others
COPESUL
IQ
IPQ
75
DOWNSTREAM
COMPERJ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE PETROBRAS VALUE CHAIN
Products Production
(kta)Polypropylene 850Polyethylene 800Styrene 500Ethylene glycol 600PTA 500PET 600
BASICS
Products Production(kta)
FuelsDiesel 535Naphtha 284Coke 700
Petrochemicals
Ethylene 1,300Propylene 881Benzene 608Butadiene 157p-Xylene 700Sulphur 45
Expand the domestic petrochemical marketUtilize Marlim crude as feedstock
Capture synergies from existing regional infrastructureImprove the balance within the commercial value chain for oil, oil products and petrochemicals
Comperj will:
76
GAS & ENERGY
FOCUSED STRATEGY
Monetize gas reservesand add value
Price gas competitivelywith competing energy
sources while maintaining profitability
Participate globally in the full LNG chain
Flexibly supply power generation and other
markets
Optimize participation in Brazil’s electricity generating
system
Natural Gas and LNG Purchase and Sales
Transport and Distribution
Power generation, purchase and sales
Invest in electricity generation from renewable sources
78
INTEGRATED GAS AND POWER SYSTEM
ANP
ANEEL
Production Imports Distribution
Natural Gas Consumers
Thermal Plants
Hydro-power Plants
Transmission
Power Energy Consumers
Distribution
Exchanges
Processing
ONS coordinates the operation of Brazilian electrical power.
Hydro-power provides base load electricity where natural conditions allow. Thermal plants minimize deficit risk.
RAIN: ACCUMULATES ENERGY – SAVES WATER
79
INCREASING GAS DEMAND
Non-thermal Demandmillion m3/d @ 9,400 k cal/m3
IndustrialPrice parity with fuel oil, accepted by the market
AutomotiveFlex fuel fleet, more expensive kits, higher NG prices
CommercialFollowing services GDP projection
ResidentialFollowing urban population growth
Natu
ral G
as to
Non
-The
rmal
Mar
ket
6% p.a. expected average growth: 2009-13
3634
3128
25
20
1417
37
5049
45
4138
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Accrued Proj. Petrobras
Realized Demand Contracted Demand
Domestic Gas: contracted with natural gas distributors until 2012
Bolivian Gas: contracted with natural gas distributors until 2020
80
INCREASING DEMAND FOR GAS-FIRED GENERATION
55 58 61 64 67 70 73 77 80 84 87 91
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2009-2013
Average Supply 2008: 52 GW
Ener
gy S
uppl
y(G
W A
vg)
GW Avg
5% growth p.a.
81
BALANCING SUPPLY & DEMAND
27 30 33 36 40 41
17 1927
3439 45
1419
36
4144
49
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
National Supply Bolivian Supply LNG: Existing Regas Capacity LNG Additions
Industrial Demand Other Uses Thermoelectric Demand
68
96
112
123
135
58
Indu
stria
lO
ther
Use
sEl
ectr
icity
Gene
ratio
n
Domestic Supply
Bolivia
LNG
mill
ion
m3 /d
@ 9
,400
k c
al/m
3
82
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
PHASED INVESTMENT PLAN
Phase I
Gas & Energy Area Creation
Phase II
2009-13Business Plan
Phase I (2003–2010): Diversify Supply and Integrate NetworkRationale:
• Meet domestic needs of power generation and non-thermal market• Diversify supply: Bolivia and LNG;• Increase power generation capacity
Result: PLANGAS, network integration, regasification terminal construction
Phase II (from 2011): Increase Supply Flexibility and Network IntegrationRationale:
• Expand natural gas supply and transmission capacity• Create options to reach domestic and international markets
Result: Pre-salt production offloading, regasification terminals, expanded thermoelectric power generation
83
PHASE I: DIVERSIFY SUPPLY & INTEGRATE NETWORK(A) EXPAND PIPELINE SYSTEM
Gasbol
GLP duto (Jan/09)Urucu - Manaus (Sep/09)
Urucu
Manau s
GasforAçu/Serra do MelNordestãoPilar-Ipojuca (sept/10)GASALPItaporanga-PilarAtalaia-ItaporangaGASEBCatu-ItaporangaCacimbas-Catu (mar/10)Cacimbas-VitoriaLagoa Parda-Vitoria - GasvitCabiúnas-VitóriaGasduc III (sept/09)Gasduc I e IIJaperi-Reduc (mar/09)Campinas-Rio (trecho Taubaté-Japeri) Campinas-Rio(trecho Paulinia – Taubaté)Gastau (oct/10)Paulínia – Jacutinga (jul/09)GASPAL II (apr/10)GASAN II (apr/10)GASPAL IGASAN IGasbol - Ampl. T. Sul (may/10)
UnderwayExisting
ExistingTransportationPipelines:2003 – 5,451 km2006 – 5,495 km2007 – 6,157 km2008 – 6,933 km
PipelinesUnderway:2009 – 7,930 km2010 – 9,265 km
70% expansion 2003-2010
84
Capacity:7 MM m3/d
Start-up:Jan/09
Objective:Flexible gassupply for thermalgeneration in the Northeast
Terminal Overview: Regasification Vessel – 01/22/09
PHASE I: DIVERSIFY SUPPLY & INTEGRATE NETWORK(B) ADD FLEXIBILITY WITH LNG
PECÉM TERMINAL
85
PHASE I: DIVERSIFY SUPPLY & INTEGRATE NETWORK(B) ADD FLEXIBILITY WITH LNG
Capacity:Terminal: 20 mm m3/d
Regasification Vessel: 14 mm m3/d
C&A completion:Jan/09
Objective: Flexible gassupply for thermalgeneration in theSoutheast
Terminal Overview: Construction and Assembly (C&A) Completion – 01/22/09
GUANABARA BAY
86
Gover. Leonel Brizola1,043 MW
Fernando Gasparian370 MW
Luís Carlos Prestes252 MW
Sepé Tiaraju 160 MWBI-FUEL
Juiz de Fora84 MW
Tambaqui89 MW
Jaraqui89 MW
Manauara85 MW
Mário Lago922 MW
Rômulo Almeida138 MW
Celso Furtado185 MW
Aurel. Chaves226 MW
Bahia I31 MW
Santa Fé30 MW
Termocabo 48 MW(leased)
Petrolina 128 MW(leased)
Funil22.5 MW
São Joaquim21 MW
Carangola15 MW
Araucária484 MW
BarbosaLima Sobrinho 386 MWBI-FUEL
Termoceará 220 MWBI-FUEL
NG 4.900 MW
OIL 472 MW
PCH 187 MW
BANAÇO 60 MW
Potiguar III 66 MW
Potiguar 52 MW
Jesus S. Pereira 340 MW
Ar embepe 148 MWAr eia 11,4 MW
Água Limpa 14 MW
Brentech 140 MW
Britarumã 60 MW
Irara 30 MW
Jataí 30 MW
Retiro Velho 18 MW
Euzébio Rocha 208 MW
Pira 19 MW
SU APE II 350 MW
Muricy 148 MW
Bonfante19 MW
São Pedro 30 MW
Fumaça 44,5 MW
São Simão27 MW
Calheiros 19 MW
Monte Serrat 25 MW
PHASE I: DIVERSIFY SUPPLY & INTEGRATE NETWORK(C) INCREASE POWER GENERATION CAPACITY
2008: 24 Plants: 5,559 MW2010: 43 Plants: 7,135 MW
87
PHASE II: INCREASE SUPPLY FLEXIBILITY & NETWORK INTEGRATION(A) TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE
Increase natural gas supply and flexibility:
Additional regasification terminals will:
Increase supply to meet thermal demand
Create opportunities to supply domestic and international markets
Increase natural gas transmission capacity:
Add 307 km of pipelines and new compression facilities
Increase (net) natural gas flow between the Southeast and Northeast
Connect new natural gas supplies, including pre-salt and third and fourth LNG terminals
88
PHASE II: INCREASE SUPPLY FLEXIBILITY & NETWORK INTEGRATION(B) ENERGY INVESTMENTS
Expand thermal generation
Federal government plan (2008-2017) creates opportunities to expand power supply from natural gas-fired plants;
Petrobras foresees participation in future energy bids, assuring fixed revenue before investment;
Petrobras may participate as:
LNG supplier
Logistical service provider (transportation and/or regasification)
Power generator
Combinations of the above
This will be done via competitive bidding
89
GAS & ENERGY INVESTMENT PLAN 2009-2013
926
1,477
4,528
3,692
Projects in Portfolio New Investments Proposed
Projects in Portfolio New Investments Proposed
Natural Gas
US$ 8.2 billion
Energy
US$ 2.4 billion
G&E InvestmentsUS$ 10.6 billion
US$ million
90
FINANCE
Shareholder Return (TSR)
CREATING SHAREHOLDER VALUE AND IMPRESSIVE RETURNS ON CAPITAL
‐80%
‐55%
‐30%
‐5%
20%
45%
70%
95%
120%
145%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
MIN
MAX
PBR
HES
PBR
BGENI
MRO
OXY
STOREP
‐20%
‐10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30%
ROACE (Average 06‐08)
TSR (Ave
rage 06‐08
)
Source: Bloomberg/Company reports
Total Shareholder Return (TSR) vs. ROACE
92
Brazilian Corporate Law requires a minimum annual distributions equal to 25% of net income
STEADY PAYOUT AND INCREASING INCOME HAS LED TO HIGHER DIVIDENDS
Note: Net Income and Dividends based on provisioned dividends and US GAAP.
US$ mm
93
31%
33%
32% 32%
29%
‐2.0004.0006.0008.000
10.00012.00014.00016.00018.00020.000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Net Income Dividend Divi dend as % of Net Income
SOURCES
- 5,0 0 0
0
5,0 0 0
10 ,0 0 0
15,0 0 0
2 0 ,0 0 0
2 5,0 0 0
3 0 ,0 0 0
2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8
OC F Ne t Debt
USES
GROWING CASH FLOW DRIVES CAPEX…
-5.0 0 00
5.0 0 010 .0 0 0
15.0 0 02 0 .0 0 0
2 5.0 0 03 0 .0 0 0
2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 *
CAPEX Dividends Acquisition
94
Sound credit ratios and commitment to maintaining investment-grade ratios
0.670.59
0.38
0.64
1.101.16
7.1% 13.7%6.5% 2.7% 4.7% 6.5%
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Net Debt/EB ITDA ST Debt/L T Debt
Net Debt/ EBITDA and ST Debt/LT Debt
Long Term Debt to Long-term Capital *
...ACCOMPANIED BY STRENGTHENING CREDIT RATIOS AND INCREASED DEBT CAPACITY
* Source: Companyreports (REP, HES, ENI, BG, OXY, MRO, STL)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
MAXMINPBR
95
ProjectedUS$ 148.6 bn (2009 – 2013)
HistoricalUS$ 88.5 bn (2003 –2008)
HISTORICALLY, CONSERVATIVE PLANNING HAS LED TO A BALANCE BETWEENOCF AND CAPEX; NEW PLAN WILL FOLLOW SIMILAR APPROACH
Sources Uses
OCF(after dividends) Capex
(US$ 92,3 bn)
Net Debt
Sources Uses
OCF(after dividends)
Net Debt
Capex(US$ 174 bn)
Average Brent: US$ 60/bbl
Average Oil Production: 1,720 (thousand boe/d)
Average Brent (e): US$ 66/bbl
Average Oil Production (e): 2,398 (thousand boe/d)
96
2009-2013 ASSUMPTIONS AND CAPEX ARE DESIGNED TO MAINTAIN TARGETED FINANCIAL RATIOS
INDECES 2008-2012 Plan 2009-2013 Plan
FX Rate (R$/US$) 2.18
Brent for Funding (US$/bbl)2008 – 55.002009 – 50.002010 – 45.002011-2012 – 35.00
Projected Net Cash Flow (After dividends) (US$ bn) 104.4
Projected Investments (US$ bn) 112.4
Net Debt/Net Debt + Shareholders´Equity(Leverage) 20%
Minimum cash balance (US$ bn) 3.8
2.0
148.6
174.4
Up to 35%
5
2009 – 58.002010 – 61.002011 – 72.002012 – 74.002013 – 68.00
97
2009-2013 PLAN: BRENT PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
US$/bbl
6060
68
7472
6158
4545454545
4037
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reference Curve Robustness Curve
98
LONG-TERM PRICING ASSUMPTIONS AT OR BELOW MARKET FORECASTS. NEAR-TERM FUNDING REQUIREMENTS ASSUME PRICES WELL BELOW THE FORWARD CURVE.
Petrobras uses a `severe stress´ scenario to project financial need through 2010
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
US$
bbl
Brent ‐ Forwa rd Curve (01/23/09) PIRA (Jan 09) Petrobras (Ba se Ca se) Petrobra s (Funding 09‐10) WoodMackenzi e (Dec 08)
Projected Brent Curves
Source: Bloomberg/PIRA/Mackenzie 99
THE PLAN DOES NOT ASSUME CAPITAL COSTS WILL DECLINE, ALTHOUGH LOWER OIL PRICES SHOULD PRODUCE DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON COSTS
Inde
x(2
000=
100)
0
100
200
300
400
500
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
1Q07
3Q07
1Q08
3Q08
4Q08
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
CCI Downstream CCI Upstream WTI
18%
11%
Source: CERA / Bloomberg
Capital Cost Index
100
FINANCIAL PLANNING THROUGH 2010 IS BASED ON A WORST CASE SCENARIO
* Capexfor 2010 is based on the annual average of the Plan´s total spending.
(18.9)(18.1)Funding Needs
2010*2009
35.028.6Capex16.010.5OCF including amortization and after dividends
4037Brent (US$ / bbl)
Minimum Projected Cash Flow (US$ bn)
Key Variables to Petrobras Cash Flow• International price of crude oil and oil products• Internal domestic prices• Exchange Rate• % of investment execution• Cost of capital investment
101
FUNDING FOR 2009 COMPLETED, WITH REMAINING NEEDS FOR 2010 TO BE MET VIA TRADITIONAL SOURCES AND COST REDUCTIONS
2009 2010
Needs• US$ 18.10 bn
Sources
Needs
• US$ 18.9 bn
Sources• BNDES: US$ 10.0 bn• Remainder to be financed : US$ 8.9 bn• 15% reduction in capex would reduce
remaining financial needs to less thanUS$ 4 bn
102
• BNDES: US$ 12.5 bn• Capital Market: US$ 6.5 bn (bridge loan)
*US$ 2.75 bn (Global Notes due 2019, in 2 tranches: 1.5 bn, yield 8.125% + 1.25 bn, yield 6.875%)
• US Exim : US$ 2 bn• CDB: US$ 10 bn
For more information:Investor Relationswww.petrobras.com.br/ri+55 21 [email protected]