Peter GOTTWALD Ambassador (Ret) · smart phone • And lets not forget: ten years is just a nanosecond for humanity... 12. Unthinkable? ... So doubts to this ‚truth‘ quickly were

Thinking the Unthinkable

Peter GOTTWALDAmbassador (Ret)


• Isn‘t that an impossible Journey I want to take you on?

• Strictly logigally this is asking the impossible:

• if it is unthinkableby definition one cannot think it• but: is anything unthinkable?

• I do not think so• Human creativity and ingeniousness know no limits

so lets embark on a little thought tour of the UNTHINKABLE

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• Here in Iceland the Vikings and particularlyEric the Red and his son Leif come to mind:

• Many of you have heard how a few intrepidexplorers found the totally unexpected American continent centuries before Columbus by settingout into the unknown

• for every practical thinker they ventured into theunthinkable

• But they made it!LETS DO LIKEWISE

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• Think about it:• We can think of practically anything • but often we cannot imagine that s.th. can

and even less that it will happen• Then - if it does we are at a loss what to do.

• My aim today is to alert you to unexpected perspectives and challenges

and how to deal with them

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• We are conditioned by our upbringing and bywhat happens around us

• Our imagination operates in the limits of ourexperience

• It limits our capacity to make sense of things• A further limit: quite often we just do not want or dare to think

certain things

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• an example: It is certainly not unthinkable thatthis blessed island could be shaken by a mighty volcanoe eruption at any moment.

• Yes, we know that Iceland is volcanic. • But only some dyed-in-the-wool pessimist

would think that it will happen nowso why care about it?

But we should and I will tell you why:

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Is the Unthinkable the new normal?

• Just in the last years a lot did happen which untilrecently we could not imagine:

• Until three years ago we thought borders in Europe could no longer be changed by force -

it has happenend• We could not imagine a ‚hybrid‘ war against a

European country• Unthinkable that a powerful neighbor could stir up

and actively support secession• Ukraine‘s fate sadly tought us otherwise

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Is the Unthinkable the new normal?

• We in the European Union thought there is only direction: FORWARD

• Sometimes slow, only in crises fast, sometimes in circles

• but never backwards

• BREXIT rudely ended this conviction

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Is the Unthinkable the new normal?• In the United States there were rather clear expectations

about a presidential election campaign• Politicians compete, one of them will win• And now an absolute outsider toppled all predictions• shamed the pundits• and made it to the most important job in the world

UNTHINKABLE?• And certainly:

the idea that a foreign power could cyber-influence elections wasUNTHINKABLE

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IS ANYTHING TODAY STILL UNTHINKABLE?

• Lets look back further for a moment:throughout its existence mankind believed in supernatural forces

• Without such a belief people could not make sense of much happening around them

• Only five hundred years ago- a tiny fraction ofmankind's existence- began the exploration ofscientific evidence

• And thus the expectation that it is possible to explainthe world based on facts

• But can we?10


• But every new scientific discovery poses ever morenew questions

• What to make of it?

• Science and technology move ahead with lightningspeed

• But human nature remains essentially the same • So we need to accept: • technological innovation moves ahead much faster

than man's ability to adjust to it

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• I‘ll give you an example:• Today we take the ubiquity of the internet for granted • only three decades ago we had no idea what ‚the internet‘

could possibly be • we had no idea how it would in less than one generation

transform our lives • none of us can claim confidently to predict - let alone handle

its infinite possibilities

• Ten years ago none of us had an i-phone • today I bet most of us find it unthinkable to live without a

smart phone• And lets not forget: ten years is just a nanosecond for

humanity...

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Unthinkable?

• What can we believe?• Might clever algorithms tailor a special reality just for you? • How can we check whether what the net tells us is true?• Already we know - even if we refuse to act accordingly-

pictures are no longer any proof • They can show anything and anybody in any sort of activity

which might have never happened, so what is realty?

• Can we trust the media to report accurately?But how can they?

• Who knows what is really going on in Aleppo?• Who respects journalistic freedom any longer?• Brutal repression and subtle manipulation go hand in hand.

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A Trojan horse?

• our dependence on internet technology is unprecedented.

• Is it a Trojan horse?• We thought it was benevolent• Now we know it can be controlled and

manipulated• But even worse: shut it dow and nothing goes. No

traffic light, no cash register, no lift will work. • What is worse – today also our defense

infrastructure totally depends on it

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Are we entering Orwell’s Brave new World?

• Many unexpected consequences of the tech-revolution seem frightening

• Everything about us from our genome to our shopping habits is transformed into DATAwhich are ‚mined‘ with clever algorithms

• We have little influence how they are used • by whom ?• for what ?

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How to escape?

• Under such conditions it is an understandable defensive mechanism to focus our mind on the present

• Most of us hardly realize - let alone think about the rapid change we are subjected to

• Normal life is enough of a challenge

• But today we want to pause and think a moment in a longer perspective

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• We need to realize:• People live in a safety cocoon of traditions and

reflexes• This provides a feeling of security to get along

in the world• But this cocoon prevents them from realizing

the ever increasing speed of change

• But CHANGE is happening

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Change gets faster all the time

Think about it just in my own lifetime: − World population has trebled (!)− Colonial empires dissolved − Most today independent nations were born− The cold war has come and gone− The nuclear bomb ceased to be a US

monopoly− nuclear proliferation continues− nuclear self annihilation is NOT UNTHINKABLE

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just in my lifetime Science and Technology have made much greater advances than in all of mankind‘s history before:− we close in on the fundamentals of the universe, − engage in space-exploration – one day we might

even find intelligent life elsewhere− We have decoded the human genome and begin

to manipulate it – that means ourselves− a new cyber world is unfolding− When will artificial intelligence take over?

Hardly anything is UNTHINKABLE

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Change needs adjustmentSo the conclusion is inescapable:

• Old receipes for navigating our world rapidly become brittle or even disappear

• It is no wonder that insecurity is growing• We need to pause and to escape from daily

detail and grasp where we are heading• Ordinary thinking is limited by experience

which can only cover what already happened • That is not enough to understand what

change holds in store for us

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What can be done?

• In a world too hard to be understood many try to find assurance

• turning to alternative structures and convictions• Sadly these often do not fit reality:• For a long time mankind was convinced that the world is

flat and the sun circles around it. After all anybody could see this everyday. So doubts to this ‚truth‘ quickly were silenced – if necessary at the stake

• Today that sounds to us like the dark middle ages

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But are we really so superior to mankind in those ‚dark‘ middle ages?

• Most of us well educated sophisticated people here today would be challenged to explain how the internet really works, let alone the central idea of Einstein‘s theory of relativity

• Yet both are fundamental pillars of the world we live in

• We can get away with that because we trust in the ‚experts‘for these matters and their ability to deal with them or just ‚google‘ it

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• But even relativity theory is not the hardest to understand

• Most difficult to decipher is the behaviour of our own species HOMO SAPIENS

• Legions of sociologists, political scientists and psychologists work on it but it is a moving target

• There is no doubt: human behavior is the biggest challenge and the

least explainable, let alone controllable factor

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• So if ist so hard to explain what is going on what‘s the alternative but to withdraw to uncontestable beliefs?

• Well there are differences to the middle ages• today the institutions enforcing traditional

truths have become much weaker • even the long time most powerful of them the

catholic church is struggling• The real problem seems for many the absence

of firm rules and norms

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• But there might be new structures coming• The world according to CNN might look very

different from the one in Fox news but peoplebelieve only their own gospel..

• Today we struggle to adjust to a globalized world• We need to explain and understand much much

more than our ancestors narrow focusfor us only the universe is the limit to what we need

to know aboutand that is tough when we sometimes do not

understand what is going on next door

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How to find what we need to know?

• The amount of ‚information‘ available to us hasbecome almost limitless

• The last time that happened was whenGutenberg invented the printing press

• it brought a revolution of access to knowledgeand ultimately led to REFORMATION and

RENAISSANCE (literally rebirth of man‘s ability to manage the world)

• Today – but lets not forget it- since less than a generation-

• the internet gives us a degree of access toinformation which is equally revolutionary

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Are we heading for a new Reformation or Renaissance?

• In the year 1500 very few realized the enormous upheaval coming

• Only future historians will be able to assess what is happening today

• Has it not all been much better in the glorious past?

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So where are we heading?

• Many want to believe it. They forget how violent and poor our past has been.

• Refusing to watch the world with open eyes and idealize a past which never existed has become a favorite

• They even created a term for it: postfactual• Nobody quite knows what that is but it allows

conveniently to close the eyes and dream of better times

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But in what can we trust?

• plenty of information is no assurance of gooddecisions

• information overload can close the mind• Anyway how sure can we be of our information?• In the beginning people thought the internet is free• Available for everyone and under no one's control• Manipulation seemed impossible• Sadly this was only a short infancy• Today acess to the internet is increasingly restricted

But worse than restriction is manipulation

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What can we do?

• Is technology turning from liberator to dictator?• Everything we do in the internet is recorded and

categorized • Everything we look at, read, do, can be used • Orwell's 1984 seems trifle against modern

possibilities• And this is just the beginning• Almost UNTHINKABLE where it all can lead to

We need to realize: it is not a luxury but an absolute must to think the UNTHINKABLE

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But lets be optimistic for a moment• Do not forget: yes, rapid change causes insecurity

but it also creates vast opportunities• Not all new developments are negative, quite the

contrary:• the majority of the earth's population used to live in

abject poverty hundreds of millions escaped in the last two decades

• poor farmers in India and Africa suddenly have cell phones, they emerge from ignorance eg. can check produce prices and transfer money

• Medicine is taking enormous strides and our life expectancy as well ( Iceland has one of the highest..)

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lets be optimistic for a moment

• And not only we are in an information revolution• In the global south middle classes are growing by the

tenths of millions• It would be a fallacy to think that this will not change

their societies• Eventually there will be a quest for more freedom for the

individual to live and to think for themselves• Too early to tell which works better: the Chinese way or

the Indian democratic model• Lets be optimistic

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The UNTHINKABLE can be the new normal tomorrow

• Until WWII Europe without war for several generations seemed UNTHINKABLE

• Luckily it has happened not the least because of NATO

• Now younger people think war UNTHINKABLE• Sadly that is no longer a certainty

• Who would have thought that Western nations today find it necessary to increase their armed forces, reactivate battle tanks and draft females to fill the depleted ranks?

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A refugee tsunami?• in the Middle East the vain hope of the Arab spring has given

way to a disaster zone with little hope for quick improvementand terrible consequences for the population

• failed states – the word didn‘t exist half a century ago- arespreading

• There is a pervasive lack of 'good governance'- but an abundance of kleptocracy and abuse by the powerful

• Global access to information gives more and more people theknowledge about life elsewhere

• No wonder there are gigantic refugee movements• people fleeing to save their lives• others risk theirs in quest of a better future

This is only the beginningThe next UNTHINKABLE is already happening

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ISLAMISTIC TERRORISM

• It began with something really UNTHINKABLE: 9/11• Even now 16 years later we can hardly believe it happened

nobody saw it coming• In 2001 we could not imagine what it would lead to:− our troops are still in Afghanistan where the Taliban continue

to be strong− islamistic terror organizations have brought fighting to Yemen,

Irak and Syria, to Libya and the Sahara region. It claims terrorist acts in Indonesia and in the Philippines and elsewhere in Asia

• Islamistic terror has struck in most of our countries and can do so again any day

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A new religious fanaticism

• modern times rely on rational action • Too many have not arrived • Islamism perverts Islam• It promises redemption in another better world • It seemed UNTHINKABLE that fanatics claiming to

possess the only truth could ensnare so many• Most disturbing that so many youngsters are

lured and made to believe that• suicide attacks are the fastest way to get to a

better world• Wasn't that quite recently UNTHINKABLE ?

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Can we stand the stress?

• the United States know political and economic immigration since its foundation

• today illegal immigration is a hot political issue• Europe used to send its people abroad • It is much less used to receiving others• This creates stress - populists gain strength

exploiting it

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Unthinkables happen all the time…

• It is ironical: a decade ago I attended a NATO conference in Romania. Far away in Iceland a volcano erupted. We didn‘tbelieve it possible but it stopped air traffic in the whole North-Atlantic region for weeks

• That was a small UNTHINKABLE..

• Three centuries ago a volcano in Indonesia darkend the skies formonths and caused famine for years as far away as Europe

• Thousands of years ago meteorites killed off the dinosaurs andtheir whole ecosystem

So what is UNTHINKABLE? After all so much has happenend!

What can we do?

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Lets do it!• First and foremost meeting these challenges requires to break

down the barriers of a compartmentalized approach• I do realize that turf battles are as popular as ever but we can

afford them less and less• A good example is the challenge of terrorism• After 9/11 the United States did the UNTHINKABLE• concentrating all ressources in a new department of homeland

security• because it suddenly became clear: the difference between

'foreign' and 'domestic' had ceased to exist• Before it happened- 9/11 was UNTHINKABLE• But when it had – answers were needed fast by breaking out of

old barriers of thinking and draw fresh consequences

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So the real challenge today is not to think the unthinkable but to THINK!

• We need an independent mind and the ability tothink out of the box

• We must follow what we have thought about andfound to be correct, accurate and factual

• Ever faster change can only be met if we thinkahead better

• Better means we must really grasp thecomplexities of the situation and find creativeways to face them and deal with them

• This requires a reliable compass as a sense ofpurpose BUT:

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How to stay aware of the many pitfalls?

• Thinking independently is tough• Do we dare to face ostracism by our our global

facebook 'friends‘ by stating divergent views?To succeed in keeping an open mind is in the end the

central challenge of our topic• The compass of values and principles steering our

actions and first and foremost our thinking is in greatdanger to be disoriented

• Not by magnetic storms but by the complexity of theworld which seemingly has abandoned all universal principles

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Consequences?

• There are too many countries in the world wheregood governance, loyal public service andincorruptability are non-existent

• We at NATO are members of a group of countries united by common principles of freedom anddemocratic rule

• We are not infallible and have our own challenges• but comparatively we are -still?- convinced that

our principles are both morally and practically themore sustainable ones

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Consequences• we must be aware of what is happening around

us and develop strategies to be prepared:• global interdependence means events develop

and cause consequences faster than ever• We must understand the context and need to

know what to do• because

the UNTHINKABLE happens!

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Let me sum up my argument

• Our seemingly well organized comfortablecircumstances are in reality extremely fragile

• There is a break up of our international order withstill unthinkable consequences

• We need to cope with lightning-fast technologicalchange

• It is a rat race to cope with the necessary behavioraland mental revolutions

• In short: we need to learn to think ahead aboutwhat until recently we thought was

UNTHINKABLE44

Lets do it!• This is a resource conference. You know how important it

is to be prepared.• To have material ready when it is needed• To anticipate what will be needed and by whom under

which circumstances• My receipe to succeed in this challenge is clear:

• Know what you want to do and why it is neccessary• Then you will find a way to do it

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Lets do it!• For us at NATO that should be clear:

• Our mission is to preserve the freedom of our citizens

• We can only succeed if we stay together as a true Alliance• We must break down the compartimentalized approach• We must allow for independent but principled thinking• We must muster the determination and creativity to think

ahead

• We need to think the UNTHINKABLE so that we are not consumed by it when it happens

Thank you for your attention

Thank you for thinking the UNTHINKABLE

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Documents

Peter GOTTWALD Ambassador (Ret) · smart phone • And lets not forget: ten years is just a nanosecond for humanity... 12. Unthinkable? ... So doubts to this ‚truth‘ quickly were