Perspectives on Risk Perception

Kathleen TierneyNatural Hazards Center

University of Colorado at BoulderWas*IS Workshop

July 18, 2007

Topics for Discussion

• Myths and misconceptions about risk perception and assessment

• Factors affecting perceptions of risk

During “normal,” non-crisis times

During emergencies

Myths and Misconceptions Regarding Risk Perception and

Assessment• Scientists and experts really

understand risk better than laypeople

• Lay perceptions of risk are erroneous and irrational

• Risk is a property inherent in things and processes (nuclear power, weather events, etc.)

Myths and Misconceptions

• Since risks can be compared in terms of their likelihood, members of the public are misguided, irrational, and worried about the wrong things, AKA,“Your chances of being struck by lightning are 5,000 times more likely than _____________ “

Alternative Ways of Viewing the Issue

• Risk is a social construct; both experts and the public act on the basis of socially-constructed claims, perceptions and assessments of risk

• Rather than being inherent in things and processes; risk is ultimately the consequence of societal and institutional dynamics. Thus risk is socially created (for more, see Tierney, “Toward a critical sociology of risk,” “From the margins to the mainstream? Disaster research at the crossroads”)

Alternative Ways of Viewing the Issue

• Because risks are socially constructed—that is, produced through social behavior, activities, and processes—risk comparisons are inherently invalid

Topics in the Study of Risk Perception:

Perceptions as Affected by• Perceived properties of different risks

(Slovic et al., “Rating the risks”)

• Mental models of risk and danger: How and why do we think we are we at risk? (Fischhoff, Morgan, and others)

• Cognitive heuristics: availability, anchoring, etc. (Slovic, Kunreuther, etc.)

Topics in the Study of Risk Perception:

Perceptions as Affected by• Personality characteristics and

world views:

FatalismLocus of control

Religiosity Risk avoidance, aversionInvincibility: “It won’t happen to me”

Topics in the Study of Risk Perception:

Perceptions as Affected by• Social relationships and network ties

• Information-seeking and information sources

• Socioeconomic characteristics of individuals and groups

GenderRace and ethnicitySocial class

Topics in the Study of Risk Perception:

Perceptions as Affected by

• Attitudes regarding the institutions that manage risk (Freudenburg and “recreancy”; “the white male effect”)

• Emotions (recent work by Slovic)

Topics in the Study of Risk Perception:

Perceptions as Affected by• Broader social processes:

Claimsmaking and social problem construction: interest groups, social movements, opinion leaders, lawmakersIssue attention cycles (Downs, “Up and down with ecology”)Media coverage and agenda-setting: the “rhetoric of risk”

Factors Affecting Risk Perception in Crisis Contexts

• Factors discussed earlier remain in play, influence both perceptions and behaviors during crisis events

• Additional factors come into play in crisis-specific contexts

Crisis-Specific Factors

• Normalcy bias• Prior experiences—or lack thereof• Environmental cues—or lack thereof• Milling and information-seeking• Properties of crisis-related messages:

clarity, specificity, consistency, certainty/uncertainty

• Properties of crisis-related message sources: trust vs. mistrust, credibility, believability, etc.

• Organizational, institutional responses

Exercise: Let’s discuss

• Avian flu

• Climate change

• Hurricane Katrina warning, evacuation

• Color-coded terrorism warnings

• Nuclear-related risks