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Period changes in men’s class reproduction in Scotland, 1974-2001
Cristina Iannelli
University of Edinburgh
ESRC project “Education and Social Mobility in Scotland in the 20th Century”
Aims of the project: to provide an up-to-date study of social mobility
in Scotland to investigate the role played by education in
the process of social mobility between generations
Background to the project: Payne, 1987; Goldthorpe, 1987; Erikson and
Goldthorpe, 1992, Breen and Luijkx, 2004
ESRC project “Education and Social Mobility in Scotland in the 20th Century”
Data and methodology:2001 Scottish Household Survey, 1999
British Household Panel Survey, 1974 Scottish Mobility Study
Mobility tables, odds ratios, log-linear models and logistic regression
Period changes in social mobility
The main aim of this paper:To analyse changes in social mobility
patterns (absolute and relative) across the whole of the 20th century
Data from the 1974 SMS and the 2001 SHS
The 1974 Scottish Mobility Study
Cross-sectional survey of men aged 20-64 resident in Scotland and Inner Isles
Our sample: men born between 1910 and 1949 (at most 4079 cases)
The 2001 Scottish Household Survey
Large cross-sectional survey commissioned by the Scottish Executive in 1998 and running annually
The 2001 module of questions on parental occupation
Our sample: men born between 1937 and 1976 (at most 3633 cases)
The EGP class schema
The 5-class schema (collapsed version of the 7-class schema): Class I-II: Service class Class III: Routine non-manual
workers Class IV: Petty bourgeoisie Class V-VI: Skilled workers Class VII: Non-skilled workers
Main methods
Mobility tables to measure absolute mobility
Loglinear models to measure relative mobilityUniform Difference (Unidiff) model (Erikson
and Goldthorpe 1992) to examine changes in the strength of the OD association between 1974 and 2001
Some descriptive statistics
Distributions of men aged 25-64 by class of origin and destination (%) 1974 2001 Origin Destination Origin Destination Class I -II 9.8 21.8 23.8 41.7
Class III 7.1 11.8 15.4 9.4
Class IV 12.6 7.7 10.3 7.6
Class V and VI 39.1 29.3 23.0 25.5
Class VII 31.4 29.4 27.6 15.8
No. of cases 4079 3789 3633 3045
Absolute mobility
Absolute mobility rates among men aged 25-64 (%) 1974 2001 Upward mobility 39.8 43.4
Immobility 36.3 33.5
Downward mobility 23.9 23.1
No. of cases 3646 2740
Relative mobility
Results of the log-linear models testing the OD association at two time points Chi-square Df Sig. Model 1: O+D+P 1928.1 40 0.0000
Relative mobility (cont.)
Results of the log-linear models testing the OD association at two time points Chi-square Df Sig. Model 1: O+D+P 1928.1 40 0.0000
Model 2: OP+DP 998.3 32 0.0000
Relative mobility (cont.)
Results of the log-linear models testing the OD association at two time points Chi-square Df Sig. Model 1: O+D+P 1928.1 40 0.0000
Model 2: OP+DP 998.3 32 0.0000
Model 3: OP+DP+OD 49.3 16 0.0000
Relative mobility (cont.)
Results of the log-linear models testing the OD association at two time points Chi-square Df Sig. Model 1: O+D+P 1928.1 40 0.0000
Model 2: OP+DP 998.3 32 0.0000
Model 3: OP+DP+OD 49.3 16 0.0000
Unidiff model 4: OP+DP+OD changes over period
25.3 15 0.0457
Unidiff parameters 1.000 (1974) 0.7172 (2001)
A long term perspective
The paper relies on cross-sectional data from only two time points
The two datasets were combined to create a time series of successive birth-cohorts constructed as one year moving averages (Yaish 2004)
Mobility rates - Men aged 25-64 by birth-cohorts
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1910-1949
1912-51
1914-53
1916-55
1918-57
1920-59
1922-61
1924-63
1926-65
1928-67
1930-69
1932-71
1934-73
1936-75
Total mobility
Upward mobility
Downward mobility
Changes in the strength of the OD association across birth-cohorts (Unidiff parameter estimates)
0.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
1.05
1.1
1.15
1.2
1910
-49
1911
-50
1912
-51
1913
-52
1914
-53
1915
-54
1916
-55
1917
-56
1918
-57
1919
-58
1920
-59
1921
-60
1922
-61
1923
-62
1924
-63
1925
-64
1926
-65
1927
-66
1928
-67
1929
-68
1930
-69
1931
-70
1932
-71
1933
-72
1934
-73
1935
-74
1936
-75
1937
-76
Conclusions
In The Constant Flux (1992) Scotland was one of the least fluid societies in Europe
Most recent data indicate that patterns of social mobility in Scotland are not different from the rest of Great Britain and other European countries
This paper shows that, differently from the rest of Great Britain, social fluidity has increased in Scotland
However, this has occurred at a very low pace and over a long period of time