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Performance of COSMO-LEPS over the Alpine region Chiara Marsigli, Andrea Montani, Fabrizio Nerozzi, Tiziana Paccagnella ARPA-SMR, Bologna, Italy ICAM/MAP Brig, 19-23 May 2003. COSMO-LEPS suite @ ECMWF. start of COSMO-LEPS integrations. clustering times. oldest EPS. +144. middle EPS. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Performance of COSMO-LEPS over the Alpine region
Chiara Marsigli, Andrea Montani, Fabrizio Nerozzi, Tiziana Paccagnella
ARPA-SMR, Bologna, Italy
ICAM/MAP
Brig, 19-23 May 2003
youngest EPS
middle EPS
oldest EPS
COSMO-LEPS suite @ ECMWF
start of COSMO-LEPS integrations
+120
+132
+144
clustering
times
day
153 members
12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12
n –1 n n+1 +2 +3 +4 +5
COSMO-LEPS
Dim 2
Initial conditions Dim 1
ECMWF LM
precipitation scenarios
precipitation scenarios
PROBABILITY MAPSPROBABILITY MAPS
COSMO-LEPS INTEGRATION DOMAIN
LOKAL MODELL
10 KM
HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION
COSMO-LEPS
Lokal Model scenarios
Probability Maps
prob of 24h rainfall exceeding 20,50,100,150
mm
prob of 24h Tmax exceeding 20,30,35,40 C
prob of 24h Tmin below -10,-5,0,+5 C
prob of 24h Vmax exceeding 10,15,20,25 m/s
prob of 24h snowfall exceeding 1,5,10,20 mm of equivalent water
Probability Maps
prob of 24h rainfall exceeding 20,50,100,150
mm
prob of 24h Tmax exceeding 20,30,35,40 C
prob of 24h Tmin below -10,-5,0,+5 C
prob of 24h Vmax exceeding 10,15,20,25 m/s
prob of 24h snowfall exceeding 1,5,10,20 mm of equivalent water
Deterministic products for each of the 5 LM runs:
Precipitation
Mean Sea level pressure
700 hPa Geopotential
850 hPa Temperature
Deterministic products for each of the 5 LM runs:
Precipitation
Mean Sea level pressure
700 hPa Geopotential
850 hPa Temperature
Transfer to Cosmo Partners
and other interested
Member States
Elbe Flood
12-13 August 2002
11/08 12UTC
12/08 00UTC
12/08 12UTC
13/08 00UTC
13/08 12UTC
Observed precipitation
12/08 06UTC - 13/08 06 UTC
Courtesy of Ulrich Damrath
Observed precipitation
12/08 06UTC - 13/08 06 UTC
oldest EPS
middle EPS
youngest EPS
00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12
8 9 10 11 12 13
+72
+96
+96
+120
+84
+108
I.C. and B.C.
5 LM runs +72
+96
FC 08/08 12UTC FC 09/08 00UTC
FC 09/08 12UTC ANALYSIS 13/08 00UTC
Z700
124
5
11
6
7 ana
Z700
COSMOCOSMOLEPSLEPS
obs
124
5
7
6
11
TP
COSMOCOSMOLEPSLEPS
COSMO-LEPS probability of precipitationCOSMO-LEPS probability of precipitation
> 50mm/24h
> 150mm/24h> 100mm/24h
> 20mm/24h
WW
NWNWCOSMO-LEPS probability of precipitationCOSMO-LEPS probability of precipitation
> 50mm/24h
> 150mm/24h> 100mm/24h
> 20mm/24h
Observed precipitation
12/08 06UTC - 13/08 06 UTC
ECMWF EPS probability of ECMWF EPS probability of precipitationprecipitation
> 50mm/24h> 20mm/24h
Youngest EPS> 20mm/24h > 50mm/24h
Super-ensemble
Lokal Modell deterministic runLokal Modell deterministic run
12/08 00UTC Fc +6 +3012/08 00UTC Fc +6 +30
Courtesy of Ulrich Damrath
obsobs
LM +6 +30LM +6 +30
Fine
Size RM Date Time Lag
CL 1: 124 13 2002/08/09 12 0
CL 2: 11 25 2002/08/08 12 24
CL 3: 5 42 2002/08/08 12 24
CL 4: 6 32 2002/08/08 12 24
CL 5: 7 18 2002/08/08 12 24
Size RM Date Time Lag
CL 1: 124 13 2002/08/09 12 0
CL 2: 11 25 2002/08/08 12 24
CL 3: 5 42 2002/08/08 12 24
CL 4: 6 32 2002/08/08 12 24
CL 5: 7 18 2002/08/08 12 24
8 9 121110 13
EPS 8 12UTC + 9 00UTC + 9 12UTC
Z700 ANALYSIS
13/08 12UTC
12/08 12UTC 13/08 00UTC
124 11
5 6
7 obs
1212
COSMO-LEPS probability of precipitationCOSMO-LEPS probability of precipitation
> 50mm/24h
> 150mm/24h> 100mm/24h
> 20mm/24h
WW1212
NWNWCOSMO-LEPS probability of precipitationCOSMO-LEPS probability of precipitation
> 50mm/24h
> 150mm/24h> 100mm/24h
> 20mm/24h1212
ECMWF EPS probability of ECMWF EPS probability of precipitationprecipitation
> 50mm/24h> 20mm/24h
Youngest EPS> 20mm/24h > 50mm/24h
Super-ensemble1212
obsobs
LM +6 +30LM +6 +30
1212