The Danish Energy Technology Catalogues - iea … kat WAS .pdf• data sheets containing primarily structured, ... d ge) e) c ck e, ood ps ck aw ck e, G , od s , oal d ) s , A €

The Danish Energy

Technology Catalogues

General concept of a energy technology catalogue, the

Danish experiences in developing energy technology data

catalogues and how it is used

Rikke Næraa

Danish Energy Agency

July 19, 2017Danish Energy Agency Page 1

Outline of presentation

• Why common energy data

• What is the Danish Energy Technology

catalogue?

• How is it made?

- focus on approach for making technology

catalogue – not on specific technologies


What is the Danish Energy Technology

catalogues?

• data sheets containing primarily structured,

quantitative data on status and projection of

development of costs and efficiencies and

other technology specific data.

• Data sets for e.g. 2015, 2020, 2030 and 2050

• Qualitative data descriptions

Public available


What can TCs be used?


• Analysis of energy systems, including economic

scenario models and total system energy planning.

• Simpler analysis of energy technologies, comparative

analysis

• Common reference point for calculations

-"Official" data on energy technologies that "all"

stakeholders can agree on. A kind of best estimate.

• Should not be used for projection and design of specific

energy installations /plants

Examles of used by DEA

• ”Energy scenarios for 2020,

2035 and 2050”

• Danish Energy Outlook

• TIMES-model

• …

-the backbone of many of our

analyses


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CO2 cost

Fuel cost

O&M

Investment cost

Simple comparison of technologies : Cost of producing 1 kWh of electricity on different technologies

Others


The purpose of the TC method to

make energy technology data

Technology data that can be used for

comparisons of different energy technologies

that is general accepted of high quality and

made in a transparent process and

To ensure that the different groups working with

energy models in Denmark use the same

technology data July 19, 2017Danish Energy Agency Page 8

Purpose of Danish CT

To ensure fair competition between the

different technologies in analysis and

scenarios

to make it easier to compare results from

different energy models.


Guidelines/Instructions


To ensure consistency and comparability of data for

different technologies and the consistency of the

qualitative chapters and the transparency of the data .

- Detailed definitions of the parameters e.g. what is

included in the efficiency, in the investments cost, in

O&M cost, at what temperature is district heating

delivered and returned.

- How to write the qualitative sections

The relatively detailed guideline should also help the

model makers on how the data could be used in their

model

Overview of categories of energy technology

data in the catalogues


• Electricity and District Heating

• Individual Heating Plants

• Conversion of biomass (and

other RE) to bio fuels

• Vehicle technologies (cars,

trucks, busses, trains and

planes)

Catalogues in proces

• Hydrogen technologies

• Grids ( el, gas and heat)

• Energy Storage

At the moment partly included in

other catalogues

The qualitative part of the technology

chapters

Qualitative description (should be short and not detailed)• Brief technology description

• Input

• Output

• Typical capacities

• Space requirement

• Regulation ability and other power system services

• Advantages/disadvantages

• Environment Examples of market standard technology

• Research and development perspectives

• Prediction of performance and costs

• Uncertainty

• Additional remarks

• References

What to cover in TCs?

Quantitative description

• Data Sheet

• Data for 2015, 2020, 2030 and 2050

• To be included direct in the databases for

the modelling / analyses

• Notes

• References


Technology

2015 2020 2030 2050 Note Ref

Energy/technical data Lower Upper Lower Upper

Generating capacity for one unit (MWe) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

Electricity efficiency (condensation mode for

extraction plants), net (%), name plate

26 27 28 29 24 26 24 26 1

Electricity efficiency (condensation mode for

extraction plants), net (%), annual average

24 25 26 27 21 27 21 30 A

Cb coefficient (50oC/100oC) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 3

Cv coefficient (50oC/100oC) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA J

Forced outage (%) 9 9 9 9 8 10 8 10 G 1+5

Planned outage (weeks per year) 2 2 2 2 2 4 2 4 H 5

Technical lifetime (years) 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 6

Construction time (years) 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.7 2.2 2.7 6

Space requirement (1000m2/MW th) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.25 0.35 0.25 0.35 5+7

Primary regulation (% per 30 seconds) 3 4 5 6 3 5 3 5 K 5

Secondary regulation (% per minute) 3 4 4 4 3 5 3 5 6

Minimum load (% of full load) 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 6

Warm start-up time (hours) 2 2 2 2 1.5 2.5 1.5 2.5 6+5

Cold start-up time (hours) 6 6 6 6 5 7 5 7 6+5

SOx desulphuring (%) 94 95 96 97 92 97 94 99 D 3+6

NOX (g per GJ fuel) 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 E 7

CH4 (g per GJ fuel) 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 F 3;2;2;2

N2O (g per GJ fuel) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 F 3;2;2;2

Nominal investment (M€/MWe) 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.7 6 4.7 6 B 4+5

- of which equipment - - - - - - - - H

- of which installation - - - - - - - - H

Fixed O&M (€/MWe/year) 110,000 105,000 99,000 94,000 100,000 130,000 100,000 130,000 I

Variable O&M (€/MWeh) 11 10 10 9 10 13 10 13 I

Fixed O&M (€/MW/year) -Total O&M 157,000 149,000 142,000 134,000 134,000 170,000 120,000 170,000 C 1

Regulation ability

Environment

Financial data

Technology specific data

09 Biomass CHP,Small steam turbine, Woodchips

Uncertainty

(2020)

Uncertainty

(2050)

How is the data in the TC provided;

2015 data

- From specific projects recently build

/contracted

- National register /statistics

- Expert assessments

- National studies /surveys

- International studies/ /surveys


Marked standard not BAT

Market standards (if established):

- performance and cost data of recent installed

versions of the technology in Denmark or the

most similar countries in relation to the specific

technology in Northern Europe for the 2015

estimates.


“Bottom up metode” - braking down the

investment cost

example offshore wind


Figure 6: Breakdown of costs for offshore wind farms [ref. 19, 20, 21]. The cost of environmental assessment is a part of the

Planning & development and financing cost component

17%

Economy of scale

The cost of one unit for larger plants is usually less than

that for one unit for smaller plants

𝐶1

𝐶2=

𝑃1

𝑃2

𝑎

• Cn = Investment cost of plant n (e.g. in million EUR)

• Pn = Power generation capacity of plant n (e.g. in MW)

• 𝑎 = Proportionality factor, typical value 0.6-0.7

The plants should essentially be identical, only significant

difference is in size

Energy efficiency

• Technical experts

• National register

• Data through international sources, e.g. IEA

• Evaluation in relation to national context.


Notes

• Notes are made to add further detail to data

• Notes is important to ensure transparency –

especially if references not used directly


Data for 2020, 2030 and 2050

Prediction of future data

Aiming at no empty cells, prefer the same ”wrong”

guess

Data for 2020, 2030 and 2050

Prediction of efficiencies, few and not well

established methods

Two approaches:

• Expert judgements – especially for identifying

barriers

• Reference technologies giving upper and lower

limits

Data for 2020, 2030 and 2050

Prediction of costs:

Examples of methodes

• Simple learning curve (with fixed yearly

improvement)

• bottom-up approaches

• expert judgements

Simple learning curve approach

Examples of rapid not predictiable changes in technology

data

Hvornår skal vi reagere

- Vurdering er det enlig svale eller tendes

19. juli 2017 Side 26Energistyrelsen

Examples of rapid not predictiable changes in technology

data

Hvornår skal vi reagere

- Vurdering er det enlig svale eller tendes

19. juli 2017 Side 27Energistyrelsen

X Krigers Flak

Example of lack in the capacity of making

predictions PV Large ground mounted


Example of lack in the capacity of

making predictions Off shore wind


The steps in the process to develop

and maintain Energy Technology

Catalogue

• Identify relevant technology

• get valid data especially in terms of costs and

efficiencies for now and for the future

• Get acceptance of data


Organisation around the TC work

DEA/TSO Project leader

Steering committee

Tech. 1:

DEA Task leader

Consultant

Tech. spec. ref. group

Tech. 2:

TSO Task leader

Consultant

Tech. spec. ref. group

…

Reference group:

-Energy branch org.

-TC users

-Researchers and industry

The process for making Danish TCs

1. Formulation of TC guideline

• to ensure uniformity of the descriptions of the different

technologies data and in some extent between technology

categories.

2. Making the first draft of the Data collection, writing the text

(Technology experts and )

3. Deep dive workshop with technology experts and stakeholders

resulting in a 2. draft

4. Public hearing of the technology chapters of the TCs

• to validate data and ensure acceptance

5. Revision of data and text

6. Publication

7. Updating – back to 1(or 2).

Improving data quality and comparation

Tools to compare between technologies and

with data from ”last” version in a systematic

way have been introduced ( kind of quality

assurance)


Who is the best to make the TC

Energy technology experts (expert in the

specific technology)

Energy consultants(technical) using energy

models themselve


The value of international foreign TCs

TCs can be used in other contexts, but:

• May not be accepted by stakeholders

• Costs of installations are likely to be

different

• Technology ‘preferences’ may differ

• May not include the relevant technologies

But a cooperation is seen as beneficial for all

Other Technologi catalogs?

- possible cooperation ?

IRENA

IEA-NEA

JRC

Ecofys

NVE (Norway)

ELFORSK Sweden

Frauenhofer


Thank youwww.ens.dk

July 19, 2017Danish Energy Agency

Rikke Næraa ([email protected])

Page 37

The Danish Energy Technology catalogues is

public available and can be found:

https ://ens.dk/en/our-services/projections-and-

models/technology-data .

Details of some of the parameters

-Environment in the data sheet

Harmful emissions to air:

• SOx degree of desulphuring (%)

• NOX (=NO2 + NO) (g per GJ fuel)

• PM2.5, P10, (g per GJ fuel)

Greenhouse gas emissions

• CH4 (g per GJ fuel)

• N2O (g per GJ fuel)

• BC (g per GJ fuel)

CO2 emission values are not stated, as these depend only on the fuel,

not the technology.


Details of some of the parameters

- Operation and maintenance (O&M) costs

Fixed O&M cost (€/MW/year): e.g. administration,

operational staff, service agreements, property tax,

insurance.

Variable O&M costs (€/MWh): e.g. consumption of auxiliary

materials (water, lubricants, fuel additives), treatment and

disposal of residuals, spare parts

Fuel costs are not included.


Detailed overview of the process

week number

1 The conclusion of agreements and contracts

2Start-up meeting on possible joint instruction session if more technologies at same

time

3-7 consultants working

-dialog with the consultant about external participants for the deep dive

workshop (DD WS)

-sending Invitations to external participants in deep dive workshop (DD WS)

8-9Internal review - internal agreement on which changes should be made before the

first draft could be send out

10-13 Consultant incorporates internal adjustments

14 First draft is sent to participants in WS

15 External deep dive workshop (DD WS)

15 the participating in WS is given a week to send in aditional coomments

16Consultants adjust according to discussions and conclusions on WS and the comments

submitted later(if in accordance with the conclusions at the WS)

17Internal quick check of new versions of the chapters and sending out for external

consultation

18-20 The 2. draft is send out for external review

21-22 Internal review of comments, dialog between consultants and ENDK and ENS.

Agreement on which changes is included and how

23-24 Consultants adjust the document according to the agreed

25 Last reading and publication

Example of the Danish process when a the

specific technology have been chosen

RMH(SLP) Udarbejdsels af teknologi katalog for net el, gas og fv(ENDK)

Choice of technologies

Two approaches

• Stakeholder approach

• ‘Analytical approach’


Stakeholder approach

• Which to include:

• Users of the TCs

• Researchers

• Industry



‘Analytical approach’:

– Step 1: Identify technologies on the basis of

inputs and outputsEthanol Methanol Butanol HVO FAME

Syn/FT

diesel

Feedstocks

Sugar cane

Straw BK (2)

Residues

forrestBK (2) TK(2)

Algee TK(2) 5 TK(2)

Corn stover BK (2),5 TK(2) TK(2)

Bagasse BK (2) TK(2)

Cellucosic

residues(TK(2)) (TK(2)) (TK(2)) TK(2)

BK(3)

Miscanthus BK (2)

Paper waste



– Step 2:Identify relevant technologies based

on needs

…

.

.



– Step 3: Identify feedstocks


Other potential ‘filters’:

• Location of feedstocks, consumers and

infrastructure

• …

• Industrial branches to be prioritised

• Certain knowhow to be utilised/supported

Identify shortlist

Experience curves

Experience curves – cumulative

production

Experience curves - data

• Use other technologies as proxy

• Compare with cost level for cheaper/more

expensive technologies

Documents

The Danish Energy Technology Catalogues - iea … kat WAS .pdf• data sheets containing primarily structured, ... d ge) e) c ck e, ood ps ck aw ck e, G , od s , oal d ) s , A €