PCE Statistics for Food and Energy

Clint McCullyChief, Research Group

National Income and Wealth Division

APDU Annual ConferenceSeptember 25, 2008

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PCE Estimates

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) includes purchases of goods and services for personal use

Business and government purchases not included Purchases by self-employed included

in business purchases Purchases financed through

government social benefits included in PCE (e.g. food stamps)

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PCE Food and Energy

Food Food and alcoholic beverages purchased for off-premise

consumption Purchased meals and beverages Food furnished to employees and food produced and

consumed on farms

Energy Gasoline and oil Fuel oil and coal Gas Electricity

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Food & Energy Sources and Methods

Food Benchmark: Commodity flow (off-premise)

Food services sales (purchased meals)

Other periods: Retail control method Energy

Gasoline & Oil: Q x P Quantities: FHWA & EIA for total

VIUS, NAFA, BEA stocks data for allocation

Price: ∑ (Q by grade * P by grade)/ ∑ Q from EIA Fuel Oil & Coal: Commodity flow & retail control Electricity & gas: Residential revenue from EIA

Deflation: CPI component indexes

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Food and Energy Shares of PCE

1981 highest share = 9.2 %

2008 (7 mths) = 6.8 %

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PCE Price Indexes

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Food Price Changes

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Food Prices and Consumption

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PCE Energy Price Indexes

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Gasoline Price & Quanity

Arab oil embargo

2nd oil crisis

July ’08 = highest relative price

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Trucks and Gasoline Prices

Quantity index of new truck sales

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Airline Prices and Consumption

9/11 & aftermath