Pawtucket and Central Falls TOD Vision Plan · 2016-12-20 · RKG met with representatives of the Pawtucke t Department of Planning and Redevelopment to discuss recent and/or pending

Pawtucket and Central Falls TOD Vision Plan

Market Analysis 2013 / Updated 2016

Prepared by:

RKG Associates

76 Canal Street, Suite 401 Boston, Ma 02114 Tel: 617-847-8912 Fax: 617-847-8914

www.rkgassociates.com

EconomicPlanning

andReal EstateConsultants

PROJECT MEMORANDUM

TO: Vanasse Hangen Brustlin, Inc. (VHB)

FROM: RKG Associates, Inc.

DATE: December 1, 2015

SUBJECT: Pawtucket, RI – Update to Commuter Rail Station & TOD Analysis

As part of the Phase II Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station and TOD Analysis, RKG offers the following summary of our initial findings originally presented in October 2013, many of which have not significantly changed and continue to reflect current market conditions. This is followed by a discussion of those areas where an update of the original analysis is warranted, primarily with respect to current residential trends and changes in the existing pipeline of projects in proximity to the proposed commuter rail station location. Finally, this memorandum includes a site review of the now prevailing market conditions1.

Selected Summary Review In RKG’s opinion, the following summary points from the prior study (October 2013) remain salient and worth noting for the Phase II study:

Residential occupancy around the proposed Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station is primarily renter-households (70± percent) and trending upwards2. Target demographic household incomes are in the $40,000 to $60,000.

City-wide annual rental demand is estimated to be 1,480 units inclusive of rental turnover and newly built units, although most will come from the former.

Unmet local retail spending demand suggests the potential for an additional 52,500 SF to 157,500 SF of retail city-wide. Opportunities proximate to the proposed Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station would be limited considering locational constraints of the site. Any additional retail use would likely be neighborhood convenience orientated.

The Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station will likely serve as a development or locational amenity for future development projects such as residential and possible office use, but may not be a primary catalyst for such development.

1 As the Phase II analysis begins to culminate into two (2) potential development scenarios for the commuter rail station and the immediately surrounding market, RKG will work with VHB to develop an order-of-magnitude pro forma analysis for each concept. A discussion of potential financing and/or public incentives, which could catalyze investment, will be offered, as well as a cursory review of any proposed zoning initiatives to foster private sector investment 2 Discussed in the next section of Market Updates, noting recent and pipeline residential activity since the October 2013 study.

Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station and TOD December 1, 2015

Page 2

As of 2010, approximately 7,800 persons in the Pawtucket resident labor force (of 33,430 persons) both lived and worked in Pawtucket (Table 1) and about 80 percent of the Pawtucket residents commuted elsewhere for work. Similarly, of the approximate 24,500 jobs in Pawtucket, about 32 percent were filled by Pawtucket residents and about 70 percent of those employed in Pawtucket commuted from elsewhere. To the extent that these inbound/outbound commuters do use (or would use) commuter rail is unknown at this time3.

Residential Trends The following highlights update residential and condominium sales activity for Pawtucket.

Single Family – As noted in October 2013, the average annual sales activity (for the period 2000 through 2011) for single family residential was 412 units at $171,830. The estimated annual sales over the 2011 through 2015-time period is 356 units, down from the prior average but ahead of 2010 and 2011 and trending upwards as the housing economy continues to recover from the 2009 recession. Average pricing for the last four years was $143,860 or nearly $20,000 less than the prior period. In short, annual sales volumes have recovered although pricing has not yet recovered.

3 Likewise, ridership estimates for a Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station are unknown at this time.

0

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All Sales Activity

Single‐Family & Condomonium Sales

Pawtucket, RI‐Residential Sales Trends

All Sales Single‐Family Condominiums

Source: The Warren Group & RKG Associates, Inc.

Figure 1 – Residential Volume Trends – Pawtucket, RI

T otal 33,426 24,507

Pawtucket, R I 7,784 23.3% 7,784 31.8%

P rovidence, R I 655 2.0% 3,436 14.0%

Attleboro, MA 1,699 5.1% 634 2.6%

Bos ton, MA 864 2.6% 34 0.1%

S ourc e ; US Cens us , ACS S urvey and RKG

Where Pawtucket

R es idents Work

Where Pawtucket

Workers R es ide

2010 C ommuter

S tats

Table 1 – Selected Commuter Statistics 2010


Page 3

Condos – Previously, condominium sales averaged 69 units per year in Pawtucket (2000 through 2011), but have averaged 22 units annually since that time. Condominium pricing averaged $139,200/unit in the prior period and $108,100/unit over the last four years. In short, in terms condominiums, both volumes and pricing remain anemic, possibly influenced by a market that is 70 percent renter-occupied.

REIS Updates RKG obtained a REIS Report that identified current conditions and trends at a sample of 10 apartment projects within four miles of a proposed Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station site (Goff Avenue/Pine Street) with those in the Providence submarket and Providence Metro market4. Table 2 exhibits current vacancy and pricing at the individual projects in the sample. The current vacancy rate (1.6 percent) of the sample was lower than indicated in the Providence submarket (1.8 percent) or Providence Metro (2.1 percent). This may be due in part to lower average rents ($1,025) and age of properties (1970) in comparison to the other geographies. The average rents by bedroom-size at the sample were also lower in all cases than those indicated at the submarket or the Metro level.

4 REIS is a private supplier of real estate market transaction data. The Providence Metro market includes three submarkets, namely Providence; Northern Rhode Island and Southern Rhode Island. The Providence submarket includes Pawtucket; East Providence and others within the I-295 ring.

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Pawtucket, RI ‐ Median Sales Price Trends

All Sales Single‐Family Condominiums


Figure 2 – Residential Price Trends – Pawtucket, RI

AVG 0‐bdrm 1‐bdrm 2‐bdrm 3‐bdrm

North Bend East Pawtucket 146 1969 0.7% $872 $651 $727 $978 $984

Stenton Manor Providence 49 1959 2.0% $891 $891 $813 $903

Northfield Manor North Providence 48 1974 0.0% $921 $883 $958

Parkview Pawtucket 211 1976 1.9% $1,069 $850 $925 $1,163 $1,350

Tall Oaks Rumford 52 1984 0.0% $1,373 $1,005 $1,130 $1,465

Parkview Exchange Pawtucket 211 1975 1.4% $1,070 $877 $972 $1,130 $1,301

Bourne Avenue East Providence 41 1979 2.4% $823 $750 $880

University Heights Providence 349 1973 2.0% $1,251 $939 $1,064 $1,423 $1,679

Rumford Court Apts East Providence 48 1981 2.1% $833 $766 $900

Sutterfield Providence 143 1943 2.1% $853 $767 $838 $954

Sample Total/AVG 1,298 1970 1.6% $1,025 $777 $919 $1,117 $1,211

Providence Submarket 7,408 1983 1.8% $1,375 $1,317 $1,342 $1,606 $1,767

Providence Metro 16,523 1982 2.1% $1,301 $1,114 $1,797 $1,423 $1,511

Source: REIS Reports & RKG Associates , Inc.

Asking Rent by Type

Name City

# of

Units

Year

Blt

Vacancy

Rate

Table 2 – Pawtucket: Rental Market Conditions


Page 4

Table 3 compares trends of key characteristics of the sample, with those in the submarket and Metro level over the last five plus years. The sample had no new units completed during the time frame, while the Providence submarket had about 70 new units come on-line and the Metro market had 190 units, and in both cases these occurred between 2011 and 2012. Unit absorption at the Pawtucket sample fluctuated based on changes in the vacancy rate, which declined from 4.3 percent in 2010 to 1.6 percent in 2015, although it was at its highest in 2013 (5.7 percent). Unit absorption averaged about 15 units per year over the period, while in the submarket the average was 125 units per year over this same time frame, but greater absorption was indicated in 2010 and 2011 than in the later years. Absorption in the Providence Metro market averaged over 225 units per year during this period. This positive absorption lowered the vacancy rate in both areas, and by 2015 (June) it was at or below 2 percent in both markets.

Average rents at the Pawtucket sample increased at a compounded rate of 1 percent per year between 2010 and 2015, and a slightly higher rate (1.5 percent per year) was evident in the Providence submarket. However, rents there have slipped back over the first half of 2015. Conversations with representatives of the Pawtucket Planning Department and the REIS report also indicates several residential projects either under construction, planned or proposed (Table 4) totaling nearly 1,200 units in the pipeline within a five-mile radius of the proposed Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station.

Recent Market Activity RKG met with representatives of the Pawtucket Department of Planning and Redevelopment to discuss recent and/or pending development projects within the City and about the TOD site, noting the following updates:

300 Barton Street - Formerly one of the sites under consideration for the proposed TOD, the northern portions of the 47,650 SF neighborhood retail strip center is scheduled for demolition and is to be replaced with an Auto Zone store.

Pawtucket Sample

Year

New

Units

Absorp‐

tion

Vacancy

Rate # Δ

AVG Ask

Rent % Δ

2010 0 40 4.3% ‐3.1% $965 0.2%

2011 0 8 3.7% ‐0.6% $980 1.6%

2012 0 (19) 5.2% 1.5% $1,026 4.7%

2013 0 (6) 5.7% 0.5% $1,009 ‐1.7%

2014 0 56 1.4% ‐4.3% $1,021 1.2%

2015 0 (3) 1.6% 0.2% $1,025 0.4%

Providence Submarket

Year

New

Units

Absorp‐

tion

Vacancy

Rate # Δ

AVG Ask

Rent % Δ

2010 0 221 7.2% ‐1.9% $1,351 0.0%

2011 23 220 4.5% ‐2.7% $1,370 1.4%

2012 48 73 3.5% ‐1.0% $1,427 4.2%

2013 0 86 3.0% ‐0.5% $1,463 2.5%

2014 0 74 2.0% ‐1.0% $1,501 2.6%

2015 0 12 1.8% ‐0.2% $1,470 ‐2.1%

Providence Metro Market

Year

New

Units

Absorp‐

tion

Vacancy

Rate # Δ

AVG Ask

Rent % Δ

2010 0 406 6.1% ‐1.3% $1,205 2.5%

2011 23 382 3.9% ‐2.2% $1,226 1.7%

2012 170 62 3.5% ‐0.4% $1,259 2.7%

2013 0 258 3.0% ‐0.5% $1,281 1.7%

2014 0 119 2.2% ‐0.8% $1,309 2.2%

2015 0 22 2.1% ‐0.1% $1,301 ‐0.6%


Table 3 – Pawtucket: Rental Market Trends

Under C ons truction

521 R oosevelt 90

F ront S t. @ Middle S t. /1 53

P lanned

310 Bourne Avenue 73

S Main S t. @ P ike S t. 45

P ropos ed

Bourne Ave. @ R oger Williams 295

111 Wes tmins ter S t. 290

1005 Main S treet /1 149

90 Indus trial S treet 48

66 Huber Avenue 40

S t. Mary's on George S treet /1 100

TOT AL 1,183

S ourc e : REIS and RKG As s oc iates , Inc .

1/ P awtucket projects , likely s tart 2016 and 2020 completion

Apartments

Apartments

C ondominiums

S ub/Low Income

Apartments

C ondominiums

Apartments

S ub/Low Income

Apartments

Development Ac tiv ity Number of Units T ype

Apartments

Table 4 – Pipeline Residential Activity


Page 5

461 Main Street – Isle Brewers Guild is proposing an approximate 130,000 SF complex (Figure 3) to return craft beer brewing to the City with a facility that has the capacity for 1 million cases annually. Included with the development there will be packaging and warehouse space; some pub/restaurant space, classrooms and office space.

Barton Street – There is a commercial warehouse on the market, located across the street from the shopping center. A brief conversation with the owner indicated a total space of around 108,000 SF (inclusive of a garage), with an asking price of $499,000.

1005 Main Street – This is a proposed partial conversion (19,200 SF) of former mill space (Figure 4) into creative artist live/work space, referred to as the Hope Artiste Village (149 units). Portions of the remainder of the former mill property are currently occupied with small businesses.

430 Pine Street – An approximate 43,340 SF accessory industrial building (formerly used as stables) is proposed for redevelopment as The Stable Live/Work Artist Lofts (26 units) by Urban Smart Growth, LLC. Ground floor work area is 25,875 SF and upper level residential will be 17,465 SF.

Seekonk Riverfront – The Peregrine Group LLC has proposed a $40 to $50 million project to transform a City-owned parcel along the Seekonk River to a mixed-use development (with 200+ apartments), complete with commercial space, a parking garage and recreational greenspace amenities (Figure 5).

2 Bayley Street (at Dexter Street) – This former bank property has recently been converted to rent-restricted housing for low-income tenants, with 12 units on the upper floors and one handicap accessible unit with retail/commercial on the ground floor (Figure 6). An informal conversation with a tenant indicated that the 1-bedroom apartment is around 800 SF, nicely and newly apportioned, with a monthly rent of $600. Ground floor commercial space is still being renovated and no tenants are known to be committed to the space as of yet.

Figure 3 – 461 Main Street

Figure 5 – Concept for Riverfront


Figure 6 – 2 Bayley Street


Page 6

521 Roosevelt Street – The Tai-O Group has begun renovation of a former mill property, adjacent to the 100-unit M Residential complex (refer to Figure 7) to include 90 units with a mix of 1-bedroom and 2-bedroom apartment units. The new development as well as M Residential have access to and views of the Blackstone River. This project is in Central Falls.

The Providence and Worcester (P&W) Rail Yard – This 8.5-acre property was originally considered as a site for the proposed Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station, and remains available (Figure 8). The consultants understand that there would be a vetting process for this site, whereby after first refusal by the state and second refusal by the City, the site would then be available to the private sector. This parcel is adjacent to the currently proposed parking area and site for the Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station, as well as the recently completed residential projects, the Lofts at 125.

The Lofts at 125 – This 150-unit complex is adjacent to the proposed Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station and proximate to the P&W Rail Yard. The former mill property has been developed in phases and currently an additional 50± units are near completion (reportedly existing vacancies are nominal and several pre-leases are in effect). An informal sit down meeting with the owners and property manager indicated that they are very optimistic about residential development opportunities in Pawtucket, noting that their target tenant is not the local population, but rather the commuter to Boston (maybe 35 percent), to Providence (perhaps 15 percent) and the remainder, including transferees to the area as a result of corporate relocations and recent developments (such as the new Plainfield casino). These target tenants are millennials priced out of the higher rent urban centers (often their place of employment) who can afford rents ranging from $900 to $1,600 (averaging $1,200± for 1-bedroom units) in an alternative and minimalist loft-style setting. The owners have recently purchased properties along Dexter Street (abutting the Lofts at 125) and remain interested in other development opportunities elsewhere in Pawtucket, compatible with their business model.

Summary Findings The following points summarize the findings of this market update, notably with respect to the residential market and activity.

Figure 7 – 521 Roosevelt Street

Figure 8 – Providence and Worcester Rail Yard

Figure 9 – The Lofts at 125 (before)

Figure 10 – The Lofts at 125 (after)


Page 7

City-wide single family homes sales averaged 356 units annually (2011 through 2015) with average pricing of $143,860, indicating that since the Great Recession annual sales volumes have begun to recover although pricing has not.

City-wide condominium sales averaged 22 units annually (2011 to 2015), down from 69 units annually (2000 to 2011). Average pricing has declined from $139,200/unit to $108,100/unit, indicating that since the Great Recession both volumes and pricing remain anemic for condominiums.

Over the 2010 to 2015 time, average absorption of rental units in the Providence submarket, which includes all of Pawtucket, was 125 units annually with an average asking lease of $1,430/month. In comparison, a sample of rental properties proximate to the proposed development site realized an average annual absorption of 15 units at an average asking lease rate of $1,004/month.

While a full market study was beyond the scope of this analysis, the sampling of apartments in the REIS report indicated the following mix of bedrooms: studio at 14 percent; one-bedroom at 21 percent; two-bedroom at 30 percent; and three-bedroom at 35 percent. Conversations with area property managers suggested that one and two-bedroom units were typically the norm for attracting the “millennial demographic”5.

A recap of the REIS report indicates nearly 1,200 residential units in the pipeline, either under construction, planned or proposed, within a five-mile radius of the proposed Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station. Conversations with local planning officials, and property owners, suggest an additional 525 units (under construction, planned or proposed) elsewhere at selected locations city-wide.

In terms of the office market, as previously identified (October 2013 report), a sample of office properties in Pawtucket indicated 115,000 SF available for sale with an average asking price of $59/SF and 77,400 SF available for lease with an average asking lease rate of $12.32 per SF.

In terms of retail development, conversion of a portion of the nearby 47,650 SF neighborhood retail strip center is scheduled for an Auto Zone. As previously (October 2013 report) identified there is a city-wide opportunity for an additional 52,500 SF to 157,500 SF of retail and service through a re-capture of sales leakage. However, the location/access attributes about the proposed Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station site likely limit this opportunity to smaller scale, neighborhood convenience operations.

A possible exception to the aforementioned would be an opportunity for restaurants and other niche retail that may be part of a larger scale mixed-use project (with a heavy residential component) as part of a TOD (transit oriented development) program near the proposed station. Similarly, there may be an opportunity for some additional pre-leased or build-to-suit office space (if part of a TOD), as speculative office space development, without tenants in hand, is unlikely.

5 Typically considered those born in the mid 1980’s to the early 2000’s, often delaying marriage and family formation.


Page 8

Conclusions The Pawtucket residential market, particularly the rental market, shows signs of continued improvement (post-recession) as indicated by nominal vacancies and rising rents. On the other hand, the for-sale market continues to languish with little recovery in pricing to pre-recession levels. New renter inventory has been added, primarily as mill re-development/conversion, perhaps capitalizing on the City’s zoning initiatives offered through the Mill Building Reuse District (MBRD)6 and potentially lower development costs compared to other urban markets. The mill conversions may offer developers a less costly alternative to new construction. The proposed Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station could serve to energize additional residential development as both conversion and newly built units in the immediate area, including a re-positioning of the P&W Rail Yard should it become available for development. Further, the potential development of the P&W Rail Yard could then serve as a catalyst for other properties in the immediate area, such as the available space on Barton Street, and longer-term transition from a declining industrial environment to a more urban, modern and mixed-use neighborhood, as each new household adds an estimated $20,000+ annually in local consumer spending demand.

Along these lines, it is recommended that the City or some other public-sector entity consider acquisition of the P&W Rail yard in order to maintain site control and to work with the private sector to develop the property with respect to publicly desired guidelines and needs while also realizing private sector investment criteria.

Subject to additional research, the inclusion of the P&W Rail Yard as part of a potential TIF (tax increment financing) district that connects with the downtown may facilitate investment in public infrastructure improvements through a future stream of incremental tax revenues.

6 This overlay district encourages mixed-use development by facilitating a re-zoning of former obsolete or underutilized manufacturing and/or industrial buildings, often capitalizing on riverfront properties/amenities.

76 Canal Street, Suite 401 Boston, MA 02114 Tel: 617-847-8912 Fax: 617-847-8914


EconomicPlanning

andReal EstateConsultants

PROJECT MEMORANDUM



DATE: January 14, 2016

SUBJECT: Pawtucket, RI – Commuter Rail Station & TOD Analysis

This memorandum provides a summary recap of housing and residential indicators for Pawtucket, establishing an historic baseline of market indicators in order to offer reasonable assumptions of future demand and absorption, as may be related to development of the Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station/TOD and surrounding neighborhood (Figure 1). The initial development considerations include approximately 71,700 SF of retail/service space and 1,063 renter residential units and 63 owner residential units, for a tenure mix of 94 percent and six percent, respectively.

The population for Pawtucket has been stable since 2000, declining somewhat between 2000 and 2010, recovering a bit by 2015 and then are projected to decline again, nominally (Table 1). However, the population often considered as first time householders (ages 25 to 34) and perhaps renters, has declined by four percent between 2000 and 2010, but has grown since and is projected to continue. The population often considered family formation (35 to 44) and first time home-buyers declined sharply (15 percent) over 2000 to 2010 and has continued to decline. All income indicators in the City of Pawtucket improved over the 2000 to 2010-time period at a rate ahead of inflation (26.6 percent) indicating that there was real income growth. However, the rate of increase for all measures between 2010 and 2015 fell below the estimated 8.8 percent inflation rate.

Table 1 – Selected Indicators for Pawtucket, RI

Total P opulation 72,958 71,147 (1,811) ‐2.5% 71,672 71,436 0.7% ‐0.3%

22,520 20,306 (2,214) ‐9.8% 20,684 20,767 1.9% 0.4%10,765 10,348 (417) ‐3.9% 11,165 11,394 7.9% 2.1%11,755 9,958 (1,797) ‐15.3% 9,519 9,373 ‐4.4% ‐1.5%

Median Age 35.8 36.7 0.9 2.5% 36.9 37.3 0.4% 1.3%

$16,903 $22,514 $5,611 33.2% $22,777 $26,378 1.2% 15.8%$32,133 $40,808 $8,675 27.0% $42,093 $48,612 3.1% 15.5%$41,044 $55,006 $13,962 34.0% $55,629 $64,266 1.1% 15.5%

S ourc e : US C ens us , Alteryx , ES RI and RKG As s oc iates , Inc .

Median HouseholdAverage Household

# Δ 2000

to 2010

F irs t Time HH C ohorts25 to 3435 to 44

Inc ome(s )

P er C apita

E s timated

2015

P rojec ted

2020

% Δ 2010

to 2015

% Δ 2015

to 2020

P awtuc ket, R I ‐

S elec ted Indic ators

C ens us

2000

C ens us

2010

% Δ 2000

to 2010

Figure 1 – Pawtucket TOD (initial schematic)

Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station and TOD - RECAP January 14, 2016

Page 2

Over the 2000 to 2010 decade, the City of Pawtucket realized a decline in occupied units (down 3.4 percent) and a 71.2 percent increase in vacant units, resulting in a nominal overall increase of less than one percent in total units (236 units), as presented in Table 2. The household tenure for both 2000 and 2010 indicated a 45 percent owner occupancy and a 55 percent renter occupancy. The initial proposed development mix for the TOD is more targeted to the renter residency, as is consistent with a more transitory location.

Table 2 – Housing and Tenure Trends for Pawtucket, RI

The total housing units in the City declined between 2010 and 2015, primarily reflecting a loss of vacant units. The number of occupied units has increased (229 units), particularly renter occupied units (1,051 units). The initial proposed TOD development, heavy towards renter occupied units, is also consistent with this trend. Overall, in 2015, housing tenure has shifted somewhat, reflecting a 58 percent renter occupancy.

RKG has previously estimated an annual housing demand, across all of Pawtucket, for 1,960 units as indicated in Table 3. This estimated demand includes a high unit count for renter housing and reflects mostly turnover housing (existing residents relocating from their present unit to a new unit). Additionally, the target income for the estimated housing demand is for households earning less than $60,000. Assuming 30 percent of gross income as a rent burden, these households could “afford” a monthly rent of up to $1,500, which is well within the range of the prevailing rents in the market.

Table 3 – Projected Annual Demand for Housing for Pawtucket, RI

The proposed TOD development, considering access and location to commuter rail, could favorably alter the new versus turnover metrics, as residents and workers may relocate from outside of Pawtucket to the new TOD development. RKG’s prior analysis indicated a high percentage of Pawtucket residents commuting out of the City for work. In RKG’s opinion, a TOD location, and favorable rents and pricing (especially compared to Boston) enhances this potential. Anecdotally, one of the area property owners (of 150+ units of rental housing) stated that target tenant was not the local population, but rather the commuter to Boston (35 percent), to Providence (15 percent) and transferees to the area as a result of corporate relocations and recent developments (such as the new Plainfield casino).

Total Hous ing Units 31,819 32,055 31,902 0.7% ‐0.5%

30,047 94.4% 29,022 90.5% 29,251 91.7% ‐3.4% 0.8%

13,390 44.6% 13,020 44.9% 12,198 41.7% ‐2.8% ‐6.3%

16,657 55.4% 16,002 55.1% 17,053 58.3% ‐3.9% 6.6%

Vacant Units 1,772 5.6% 3,033 9.5% 2,651 8.3% 71.2% ‐12.6%

964 54.4% 1,383 45.6% 1,013 38.2% 43.4% ‐26.7%

150 8.5% 228 7.5% 126 4.7% 52.2% ‐44.9%

151 8.5% 367 12.1% 238 9.0% 143.3% ‐35.3%

71 4.0% 40 1.3% 115 4.3% ‐43.5% 185.5%

0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% na na

436 24.6% 1,015 33.5% 1,160 43.7% 132.7% 14.3%

S ourc e : US Cens us , Alteryx , ES RI and RKG As s oc iates , Inc .

Other

% of Units or

HH 2000

% of Units

or HH 2010

% of Units

or HH 2015

F or R ent

F or S ale

Rented/sold ‐ not occ.

% Δ 2010 to

2015 (c ount)

Occupied Units (HH)

Owner

Renter

S easonal

Migrant Workers

P awtucket, R I ‐

Hous ing Metrix

C ens us

2000

C ens us

2010

E s timate

2015

% Δ 2000 to

2010 (c ount)

Total Hous ing Units 480 1,480 1,960

5 15 20 1.0%475 1,465 1,940 99.0%

percent of T otal 24.5% 75.5% na na

48 1,110 1,158 59.1%432 370 802 40.9%

S ourc e : US Cens us , Alteryx , ES RI and RKG As s oc iates , Inc .

NewTurnover

Targ et Incomes

less than $60,000more than $60,000

P awtuc ket, R I ‐ P rojec ted

Annual Demand

Owner

Units

R enter

Units

C ombined

Units

% of

C ombined


Page 3

Nonetheless, it is reasonable to assume that any new residential development in Pawtucket, in the absence of growth in employment and businesses locally based, will result in a turnover of existing residents to newer, more modern housing stock.

In terms of current residential development activity, RKG identified several residential projects either under construction, planned or proposed (Table 4) totaling nearly 1,200 units in the pipeline within a five-mile radius of the proposed TOD development.

Table 4 – Pipeline Projects - Residential

Over the longer term, as tied in with the proposed Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station / TOD, it is possible that additional residential development could come about as the result of conversions of existing mill buildings and other properties. At present there is approximately 2.62mSF of existing development around the proposed TOD area (refer to Figure 2). In general, this area will be enhanced by the presence of the commuter rail and associated development. Other factors that could play into the potential of mill redevelopment in Pawtucket include:

The possibility of augmenting development costs through the application of historic federal tax credits.

The availability of Rhode Island tax incentives designated specifically for TOD projects, including tax credits of up to 30 percent of the total project costs for redeveloping a recognized historic structure in a TOD designated development area.

Under C ons truc tion

521 R oosevelt 90

F ront S t. @ Middle S t. /1 53

P lanned

310 Bourne Avenue 73

S Main S t. @ P ike S t. 45

P ropos ed

Bourne Ave. @ R oger Williams 295

111 Wes tmins ter S t. 290

1005 Main S treet /1 149

90 Indus trial S treet 48

66 Huber Avenue 40

S t. Mary's on George S treet /1 100

TOT AL 1,183

S ourc e : REIS and RKG As s oc iates , Inc .

1/ Pawtucket projects , likely s tart 2016 and 2020 completion

Development Ac tiv ity Number of Units T ype

Apartments

S ub/Low Income

Apartments

Apartments

Apartments

C ondominiums

S ub/Low Income

Apartments

C ondominiums

Apartments

Figure 2 – Existing / Surrounding Development – Pawtucket TOD


Page 4

The City’s Mill Building Reuse District (MBRD) is designed to allow for and facilitate the redevelopment of industrial sites for mixed use development, including residential uses.

Over the 2004 to 2014-time frame, there were approximately 500 residential units brought on line in Pawtucket, as a result of mill redevelopment (Table 5) averaging 50 per year.

Table 5 – Sample Inventory of Mill Conversions

A ULI Boston Technical Assistance Panel Report (dated 9/4/2008), indicated that “a commuter rail stop would make Pawtucket … accessible and relevant to the entire Southern New England market.” The report further indicated that the commuter rail stop could hasten the redevelopment of neighboring mill properties such as the Thread Factory, however also noting that “without a single major tenant, the Thread Factory project will need to be developed in phases” and that the nature of the phasing may come about, in part, as a result of “market driven speculative development.”

While it is likely that such mill conversions will continue and may hasten due to the proposed commuter rail station in Pawtucket, RKG cautions that potential development obstacles, other than market demand, still exist, for example:

Even with possible incentives and tax credits, the redevelopment costs associated with some of the mill structures may be prohibitive in the current market relative to housing prices and rent levels.

The possible presence of hazardous waste or other contaminants, if any, could render some e of the mill properties unsuitable for residential use.

If existing mill buildings, particularly vacant and/or blighted, are left standing then they will detract from the attractiveness and marketability of other opportunities.

Considering the aforementioned caveats, trends and RKG’s research and findings, three scenarios of differing development potential are explored next.

Pawtucket

80 1995

59 2004

25 2005

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140 2014

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376 proposed

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S ourc e : RKG As s oc iates , Inc .

S ample Inventory of

Mill C onvers ions Unit C ount

Approximate

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Lofts at 125

American Wire

Thread F actory

M R es idential

521 R oosevelt Avenue

B lacks tone Landing

R iverfront Lofts

Bayley Lofts

S later C otton Mill

Lofts at 125


Page 5

Near to Mid Term Development The development over the near to mid-term (Table 6) envisions a residential mix of 1,073 apartments totaling 1.23mSF built over three phases; 63 single-family (or townhouse units) totaling 89,950 SF, also built over three phases. This represents a 95 percent renter and five percent residential mix. The estimated demand reflects a 75 percent renter and 25 percent owner mix, however, considering the proximity to transit and a likely householder demographic, RKG considers a higher mix of renter residential to be appropriate. Approximately 84,700 SF of retail uses are proposed. Overall, the proposed development, at full build-out, represents a net gain of 1.1mSF over existing building SF.

Table 6 – Potential Development and Schedule – Pawtucket, RI

As previously identified, housing demand in Pawtucket is estimated to be 1,960 units annually, predominantly through turnover. Conservatively assuming that the Pawtucket TOD

PHAS E 1 G ‐ 2 4,500 10 Apt 32 36,800 1,150

H ‐ 1 9,000 18 Apt 108 124,200 1,150

H ‐ 2 2,000 19 Apt 204 234,600 1,150

H ‐ 3 1,800 20 Apt 72 82,800 1,150

22 Apt 36 41,400 1,150

23 S FDU 12 18,000 1,500

24 Apt 42 48,300 1,150

17,300 506 586,100 1,158

PHAS E 2 R 50,000 10 Apt 32 36,800 1,150

Y 17,600 11 Apt 57 65,500 1,149

Q 117,000 12 Apt 84 96,600 1,150

15 Apt 100 115,000 1,150

16 Apt 32 36,800 1,150

16A R etail na 9,000 na

21 Apt 60 69,000 1,150

26 Twnhouse 24 36,000 1,500

9 Apt 12 13,800 1,150

na R etail na 12,000 na

184,600 401 490,500 1,171

PHAS E 3 K 9,000 1 R etail na 12,300 na

L 6,500 2 R etail na 16,600 na

M 6,300 na Apt 22 25,300 1,150

N 2,800 3 S FDU 14 21,000 1,500

O 2,400 4 S FDU 13 14,950 1,150

P 32,900 5 R etail na 12,800 na

D 29,000 6 Apt 24 27,600 1,150

7 R etail na 9,000 na

8 Apt 32 36,800 1,150

13 Apt 52 59,800 1,150

17 Apt 72 82,800 1,150

88,900 229 318,950 1,171

290,800 1,136 1,395,550 1,165

S ourc e : VHB and RKG As s oc iates , Inc .

subtotal (avg S F Xretail)

TOT AL (avg S F Xretail)

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subtotal

s ubtotal (avg S F Xretail)

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Development

E xis ting

B ldg E xis ting S F

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B ldg

T ype of

Use

Figure 3 – Rendering for Near - Mid Term Development


Page 6

residential development captures ten percent, this results in 196 units annually and represents a six-year absorption. Considering the favorable location characteristics, a 25 percent representation amounts to 490 units annually indicating a two to three-year absorption, noting that while the commuter rail proximity may be considered an amenity, the proximity to existing blighted and/or vacant mill and industrial buildings is not.

Longer Term Development with Selective Demolition This scenario considers additional new development, a mix of residential and retail/commercial, over a somewhat longer time frame that would include selective demolition of the existing building stock. Based on the previous demand and absorption indicators, as well as assumptions, residential absorption could range from 196 units per year (ten percent capture rate) to as many as 490 units per year (25 percent capture rate). Also, as noted previously, the costs that may be associated with demolition and possible remediation of some properties may render them cost infeasible. Further, the remaining presence of vacant, blighted and abandoned properties could present themselves as market/amenity deterrents to new development and absorption.

Longer Term Development with Aggressive Assumptions Another development possibility considers a long term development with more aggressive assumptions regarding buildout and mix. Similar absorption assumptions and caveats apply to this longer term development option.

Figure 4 – Rendering for Development with Selective Demolition

Figure 5 – Rendering for Long Term Development

634 Central Avenue Dover, NH 03820

Tel: 603-953-0202 Fax: 603-953-0032


Economic Planning

and Real Estate Consultants

PROJECT MEMORANDUM



DATE: October 1, 2015

SUBJECT: Pawtucket, RI – Update to Commuter Rail Station & TOD Analysis

As part of the Phase II Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station and TOD Analysis, RKG offers the following summary of our initial findings originally presented in October 2013, many of which have not significantly changed and continue to reflect current market conditions. This is followed by a discussion of those areas where an update of the original analysis is warranted, primarily with respect to current residential trends and changes in the existing pipeline of projects in proximity to the proposed commuter rail station location. Finally, this memorandum includes a site review of the now prevailing market conditions1.

Selected Summary Review In RKG’s opinion, the following summary points from the prior study (October 2013) remain salient and worth noting for the Phase II study:

• Residential occupancy around the proposed Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station is primarily renter-households (70± percent) and trending upwards2. Target demographic household incomes are in the $40,000 to $60,000.

• City-wide annual rental demand is estimated to be 1,480 units inclusive of rental turnover and newly built units, although most will come from the former.

• Unmet local retail spending demand suggests the potential for an additional 52,500 SF to 157,500 SF of retail city-wide. Opportunities proximate to the proposed Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station would be limited considering locational constraints of the site. Any additional retail use would likely be neighborhood convenience orientated.

• The Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station will likely serve as a development or locational amenity for future development projects such as residential and possible office use, but may not be a primary catalyst for such development.

1 As the Phase II analysis begins to culminate into two (2) potential development scenarios for the commuter rail station and the immediately surrounding market, RKG will work with VHB to develop an order-of-magnitude pro forma analysis for each concept. A discussion of potential financing and/or public incentives, which could catalyze investment, will be offered, as well as a cursory review of any proposed zoning initiatives to foster private sector investment 2 Discussed in the next section of Market Updates, noting recent and pipeline residential activity since the October 2013 study.

Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station and TOD October 1, 2015

Page 2

• As of 2010, approximately 7,800 persons in the Pawtucket resident labor force (of 33,430 persons) both lived and worked in Pawtucket (Table 1) and about 80 percent of the Pawtucket residents commuted elsewhere for work. Similarly, of the approximate 24,500 jobs in Pawtucket, about 32 percent were filled by Pawtucket residents and about 70 percent of those employed in Pawtucket commuted from elsewhere. To the extent that these inbound/outbound commuters do use (or would use) commuter rail is unknown at this time3.

Residential Trends The following highlights update residential and condominium sales activity for Pawtucket.

Single Family – As noted in October 2013, the average annual sales activity (for the period 2000 through 2011) for single family residential was 412 units at $171,830. The estimated annual sales over the 2011 through 2015 time period is 356 units, down from the prior average but ahead of 2010 and 2011 and trending upwards as the housing economy continues to recover from the 2009 recession. Average pricing for the last four years was $143,860 or nearly $20,000 less than the prior period. In short, annual sales volumes have recovered although pricing has not yet recovered.

3 Likewise, ridership estimates for a Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station are unknown at this time.

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All Sales Single-Family Condominiums


Figure 1 – Residential Volume Trends – Pawtucket, RI

T otal 33,426 24,507 P awtucket, R I 7,784 23.3% 7,784 31.8%P rovidence, R I 655 2.0% 3,436 14.0%Attleboro, MA 1,699 5.1% 634 2.6%B os ton, MA 864 2.6% 34 0.1%S ourc e ; US C ens us , AC S S urvey and RK G

Where P awtuc ket R es idents Work

Where P awtuc ket Workers R es ide

2010 C ommuter S tats

Table 1 – Selected Commuter Statistics 2010


Page 3

Condos – Previously, condominium sales averaged 69 units per year in Pawtucket (2000 through 2011), but have averaged 22 units annually since that time. Condominium pricing averaged $139,200/unit in the prior period and $108,100/unit over the last four years. In short, in terms condominiums, both volumes and pricing remain anemic, possibly influenced by a market that is 70 percent renter-occupied.

REIS Updates RKG obtained a REIS Report that identified current conditions and trends at a sample of 10 apartment projects within four miles of a proposed Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station site (Goff Avenue/Pine Street) with those in the Providence submarket and Providence Metro market4. Table 2 exhibits current vacancy and pricing at the individual projects in the sample. The current vacancy rate (1.6 percent) of the sample was lower than indicated in the Providence submarket (1.8 percent) or Providence Metro (2.1 percent). This may be due in part to lower average rents ($1,025) and age of properties (1970) in comparison to the other geographies. The average rents by bedroom-size at the sample were also lower in all cases than those indicated at the submarket or the Metro level.

4 REIS is a private supplier of real estate market transaction data. The Providence Metro market includes three submarkets, namely Providence; Northern Rhode Island and Southern Rhode Island. The Providence submarket includes Pawtucket; East Providence and others within the I-295 ring.

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Pawtucket, RI - Median Sales Price Trends

All Sales Single-Family Condominiums


Figure 2 – Residential Price Trends – Pawtucket, RI

AVG 0-bdrm 1-bdrm 2-bdrm 3-bdrmNorth Bend East Pawtucket 146 1969 0.7% $872 $651 $727 $978 $984Stenton Manor Providence 49 1959 2.0% $891 $891 $813 $903Northfield Manor North Providence 48 1974 0.0% $921 $883 $958Parkview Pawtucket 211 1976 1.9% $1,069 $850 $925 $1,163 $1,350Tall Oaks Rumford 52 1984 0.0% $1,373 $1,005 $1,130 $1,465Parkview Exchange Pawtucket 211 1975 1.4% $1,070 $877 $972 $1,130 $1,301Bourne Avenue East Providence 41 1979 2.4% $823 $750 $880University Heights Providence 349 1973 2.0% $1,251 $939 $1,064 $1,423 $1,679Rumford Court Apts East Providence 48 1981 2.1% $833 $766 $900Sutterfield Providence 143 1943 2.1% $853 $767 $838 $954

Sample Total/AVG 1,298 1970 1.6% $1,025 $777 $919 $1,117 $1,211Providence Submarket 7,408 1983 1.8% $1,375 $1,317 $1,342 $1,606 $1,767

Providence Metro 16,523 1982 2.1% $1,301 $1,114 $1,797 $1,423 $1,511Source: REIS Reports & RKG Associates , Inc.

Asking Rent by TypeName City

# of Units

Year Blt

Vacancy Rate

Table 2 – Pawtucket: Rental Market Conditions


Page 4

Table 3 compares trends of key characteristics of the sample, with those in the submarket and Metro level over the last five plus years. The sample had no new units completed during the time frame, while the Providence submarket had about 70 new units come on-line and the Metro market had 190 units, and in both cases these occurred between 2011 and 2012. Unit absorption at the Pawtucket sample fluctuated based on changes in the vacancy rate, which declined from 4.3 percent in 2010 to 1.6 percent in 2015, although it was at its highest in 2013 (5.7 percent). Unit absorption averaged about 15 units per year over the period, while in the submarket the average was 125 units per year over this same time frame, but greater absorption was indicated in 2010 and 2011 than in the later years. Absorption in the Providence Metro market averaged over 225 units per year during this period. This positive absorption lowered the vacancy rate in both areas, and by 2015 (June) it was at or below 2 percent in both markets.

Average rents at the Pawtucket sample increased at a compounded rate of 1 percent per year between 2010 and 2015, and a slightly higher rate (1.5 percent per year) was evident in the Providence submarket. However, rents there have slipped back over the first half of 2015. The REIS report also indicates several residential projects either under construction, planned or proposed (Table 4) totaling nearly 1,100 units in the pipeline within a five-mile radius of the proposed Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station.

Recent Market Activity RKG met with representatives of the Pawtucket Department of Planning and Redevelopment to discuss recent and/or pending development projects within the City and about the TOD site, noting the following updates:

300 Barton Street - Formerly one of the sites under consideration for the proposed TOD, the northern portions of the 47,650 SF neighborhood retail strip center is scheduled for demolition and is to be replaced with an Auto Zone store.

Pawtucket Sample

YearNew Units

Absorp-tion

Vacancy Rate # Δ

AVG Ask Rent % Δ

2010 0 40 4.3% -3.1% $965 0.2%2011 0 8 3.7% -0.6% $980 1.6%2012 0 (19) 5.2% 1.5% $1,026 4.7%2013 0 (6) 5.7% 0.5% $1,009 -1.7%2014 0 56 1.4% -4.3% $1,021 1.2%2015 0 (3) 1.6% 0.2% $1,025 0.4%

Providence Submarket

YearNew Units

Absorp-tion

Vacancy Rate # Δ

AVG Ask Rent % Δ

2010 0 221 7.2% -1.9% $1,351 0.0%2011 23 220 4.5% -2.7% $1,370 1.4%2012 48 73 3.5% -1.0% $1,427 4.2%2013 0 86 3.0% -0.5% $1,463 2.5%2014 0 74 2.0% -1.0% $1,501 2.6%2015 0 12 1.8% -0.2% $1,470 -2.1%

Providence Metro Market

YearNew Units

Absorp-tion

Vacancy Rate # Δ

AVG Ask Rent % Δ

2010 0 406 6.1% -1.3% $1,205 2.5%2011 23 382 3.9% -2.2% $1,226 1.7%2012 170 62 3.5% -0.4% $1,259 2.7%2013 0 258 3.0% -0.5% $1,281 1.7%2014 0 119 2.2% -0.8% $1,309 2.2%2015 0 22 2.1% -0.1% $1,301 -0.6%


Table 3 – Pawtucket: Rental Market Trends

Under C ons truc tion521 R oos evelt 90

F ront S t. @ Middle S t. 53P lanned

310 B ourne Avenue 73S Main S t. @ P ike S t. 45

P ropos edB ourne Ave. @ R oger Williams 295

111 Wes tmins ter S t. 2901005 Main S treet 149

90 Indus trial S treet 4866 Huber Avenue 40

T O T AL 1,083S ourc e : REIS and RK G As s oc iates , Inc .

ApartmentsC ondominiums

S ub/L ow Income

Apartments

C ondominiumsApartments

ApartmentsS ub/L ow Income

Apartments

Dev elopment Ac tiv ity Number of Units T ype

Table 4 – Pipeline Residential Activity


Page 5

461 Main Street – Isle Brewers Guild is proposing an approximate 130,000 SF complex (Figure 3) to return craft beer brewing to the City with a facility that has the capacity for 1 million cases annually. Included with the development there will be packaging and warehouse space; some pub/restaurant space, classrooms and office space.

Barton Street – There is a commercial warehouse on the market, located across the street from the shopping center. A brief conversation with the owner indicated a total space of around 108,000 SF (inclusive of a garage), with an asking price of $499,000.

1005 Main Street – This is a proposed partial conversion (19,200 SF) of former mill space (Figure 4) into creative artist live/work space, referred to as the Hope Artiste Village (149 units). Portions of the remainder of the former mill property are currently occupied with small businesses.

430 Pine Street – An approximate 43,340 SF accessory industrial building (formerly used as stables) is proposed for redevelopment as The Stable Live/Work Artist Lofts (26 units) by Urban Smart Growth, LLC. Ground floor work area is 25,875 SF and upper level residential will be 17,465 SF.

Seekonk Riverfront – The Peregrine Group LLC has proposed a $40 to $50 million project to transform a City-owned parcel along the Seekonk River to a mixed-use development (with 200+ apartments), complete with commercial space, a parking garage and recreational greenspace amenities (Figure 5).

2 Bayley Street (at Dexter Street) – This former bank property has recently been converted to rent-restricted housing for low-income tenants, with 12 units on the upper floors and one handicap accessible unit with retail/commercial on the ground floor (Figure 6). An informal conversation with a tenant indicated that the 1-bedroom apartment is around 800 SF, nicely and newly apportioned, with a monthly rent of $600. Ground floor commercial space is still being renovated and no tenants are known to be committed to the space as of yet.

Isle Brewers Guild at 461 Main Street


Figure 5 – Concept for Riverfront


Figure 6 – 2 Bayley Street


Page 6

521 Roosevelt Street – The Tai-O Group has begun renovation of a former mill property, adjacent to the 100-unit M Residential complex (refer to Figure 7) to include 90 units with a mix of 1-bedroom and 2-bedroom apartment units. The new development as well as M Residential have access to and views of the Blackstone River. This project is in Central Falls.

The Providence and Worcester (P&W) Rail Yard – This 8.5 acre property was originally considered as a site for the proposed Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station, and remains available (Figure 8). The consultants understand that there would be a vetting process for this site, whereby after first refusal by the state and second refusal by the City, the site would then be available to the private sector. This parcel is adjacent to the currently proposed parking area and site for the Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station, as well as the recently completed residential projects, the Lofts at 125.

The Lofts at 125 – This 150-unit complex is adjacent to the proposed Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station and proximate to the P&W Rail Yard. The former mill property has been developed in phases and currently an additional 50± units are near completion (reportedly existing vacancies are nominal and several pre-leases are in effect). An informal sit down meeting with the owners and property manager indicated that they are very optimistic about residential development opportunities in Pawtucket, noting that their target tenant is not the local population, but rather the commuter to Boston (maybe 35 percent), to Providence (perhaps 15 percent) and the remainder, including transferees to the area as a result of corporate relocations and recent developments (such as the new Plainfield casino). These target tenants are millennials priced out of the higher rent urban centers (often their place of employment) who can afford rents ranging from $900 to $1,600 (averaging $1,200± for 1-bedroom units) in an alternative and minimalist loft-style setting. The owners have recently purchased properties along Dexter Street (abutting the Lofts at 125) and remain interested in other development opportunities elsewhere in Pawtucket, compatible with their business model.

Summary Findings The following points summarize the findings of this market update, notably with respect to the residential market and activity.

Figure 7 – 521 Roosevelt Street

Figure 8 – Providence and Worcester Rail Yard

Figure 9 – The Lofts at 125 (before)

Figure 10 – The Lofts at 125 (after)


Page 7

• City-wide single family homes sales averaged 356 units annually (2011 through 2015) with average pricing of $143,860, indicating that since the Great Recession annual sales volumes have begun to recover although pricing has not.

• City-wide condominium sales averaged 22 units annually (2011 to 2015), down from 69 units annually (2000 to 2011). Average pricing has declined from $139,200/unit to $108,100/unit, indicating that since the Great Recession both volumes and pricing remain anemic for condominiums.

• Over the 2010 to 2015 time, average absorption of rental units in the Providence submarket, which includes all of Pawtucket, was 125 units annually with an average asking lease of $1,430/month. In comparison, a sample of rental properties proximate to the proposed development site realized an average annual absorption of 15 units at an average asking lease rate of $1,004/month.

• While a full market study was beyond the scope of this analysis, the sampling of apartments in the REIS report indicated the following mix of bedrooms: studio at 14 percent; one-bedroom at 21 percent; two-bedroom at 30 percent; and three-bedroom at 35 percent. Conversations with area property managers suggested that one and two-bedroom units were typically the norm for attracting the “millennial demographic”5.

• A recap of the REIS report indicates nearly 1,100 residential units in the pipeline, either under construction, planned or proposed, within a five-mile radius of the proposed Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station. Conversations with local planning officials, and property owners, suggest an additional 525 units (under construction, planned or proposed) elsewhere at selected locations city-wide.

• In terms of the office market, as previously identified (October 2013 report), a sample of office properties in Pawtucket indicated 115,000 SF available for sale with an average asking price of $59/SF and 77,400 SF available for lease with an average asking lease rate of $12.32 per SF.

• In terms of retail development, conversion of a portion of the nearby 47,650 SF neighborhood retail strip center is scheduled for an Auto Zone. As previously (October 2013 report) identified there is a city-wide opportunity for an additional 52,500 SF to 157,500 SF of retail and service through a re-capture of sales leakage. However, the location/access attributes about the proposed Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station site likely limit this opportunity to smaller scale, neighborhood convenience operations.

• A possible exception to the aforementioned would be an opportunity for restaurants and other niche retail that may be part of a larger scale mixed-use project (with a heavy residential component) as part of a TOD (transit oriented development) program near the proposed station. Similarly, there may be an opportunity for some additional pre-leased or build-to-suit office space (if part of a TOD), as speculative office space development, without tenants in hand, is unlikely.

5 Typically considered those born in the mid 1980’s to the early 2000’s, often delaying marriage and family formation.


Page 8

Conclusions The Pawtucket residential market, particularly the rental market, shows signs of continued improvement (post-recession) as indicated by nominal vacancies and rising rents. On the other hand, the for-sale market continues to languish with little recovery in pricing to pre-recession levels. New renter inventory has been added, primarily as mill re-development/conversion, perhaps capitalizing on the City’s zoning initiatives offered through the Mill Building Reuse District (MBRD)6 and potentially lower development costs compared to other urban markets. The mill conversions may offer developers a less costly alternative to new construction. The proposed Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station could serve to energize additional residential development as both conversion and newly built units in the immediate area, including a re-positioning of the P&W Rail Yard should it become available for development. Further, the potential development of the P&W Rail Yard could then serve as a catalyst for other properties in the immediate area, such as the available space on Barton Street, and longer-term transition from a declining industrial environment to a more urban, modern and mixed-use neighborhood, as each new household adds an estimated $20,000+ annually in local consumer spending demand.

• Along these lines, it is recommended that the City or some other public-sector entity consider acquisition of the P&W Rail yard in order to maintain site control and to work with the private sector to develop the property with respect to publicly desired guidelines and needs while also realizing private sector investment criteria.

• Subject to additional research, the inclusion of the P&W Rail Yard as part of a potential TIF (tax increment financing) district that connects with the downtown may facilitate investment in public infrastructure improvements through a future stream of incremental tax revenues.

6 This overlay district encourages mixed-use development by facilitating a re-zoning of former obsolete or underutilized manufacturing and/or industrial buildings, often capitalizing on riverfront properties/amenities.

DRAFT -- Market Analysis

Executive Summary ES-1 Prepared by RKG and Anne Galbraith – October 2013

ES Executive Summary

The Rhode Island Department of Transportation, in cooperation with the City of Pawtucket, is performing preliminary design for a potential new Pawtucket/Central Falls Commuter Rail Station. The project is being pursued in order to enhance mobility, increase access to jobs, and support local goals for economic development.

A market analysis was undertaken to better understand recent real estate market trends and to evaluate the impact a new station may have on localized development patterns. Findings are summarized below, as well as recommendations the City may wish to pursue to further incentivize development in the potentail station area.

Current and Projected Residential Market Trends

Despite recent population declines in both the City and area surrounding the potential rail station, populations are projected to stabilize over the next 5 years.

The City’s housing stock is fairly balanced between owner-occupied and renter-occupied units. Units in the area surrounding the potential rail station are predominately (70%) on the rental market, with occupancy slowly shifting towards the older “baby boom” generation. Average household sizes are also dropping, a trend indicative of households transitioning from families and/or couples to single individuals.

While the overall supply of housing in the City and study area has slightly increased over the last decade, the vacancy rate has also increased. As of 2010, the vacancy rate in the study area was over 12%.

There are projected to be 1,960 new households formed annually through 2017 in Pawtucket, with 75% in the rental market. With relatively high turnover and vacancy rates, the majority of new residents will likely move into existing housing stock. Demand for new construction is estimated to be about 20 units a year (see Table 1).



Table 1 Projected Housing Demand 2012 - 2017

The overwhelming majority of near-term demand for owner housing is projected from households earning $60,000 or more and able to afford housing valued at $220,000 or more. Renter demand will continue to be focused on the lower end of the market, largely from households able to afford rents less than $1,500/month. Yet, continued interest from older, more affluent households will generate some demand (15%) for higher end rentals with rents greater than $1,875/month.

Median household incomes in the City have slowly increased, yet have not kept pace with increases in local housing costs. Median housing values and rents have increased about four times faster than household incomes. Demand for higher value housing will likely come from those moving in from outside the City.

Commercial and Retail Markets

Pawtucket is projected to realize 3,100 new employees by 2020. An additional 787,400 SF of space would be required to accommodate this growth, reflecting incremental development and absorption of about 98,425 SF per year (excluding the government sector). Table 2 shows estimated annual demand (or potential) for new commercial development over the next five years.

Annual Demand 480 1,480 1,960

Demand by Household Income

less than $60,000 10.0% 75.0% 59.0%

$60,000 or more 90.0% 25.0% 41.0%

Annual Turnover / Absorption 475 1,465 1,940

Demand for New Construction 5 15 20

Source: US Census & RKG Associates, Inc.

Estimated Citywide Housing Demand

Owner Units

Renter Units

Total Units



Table 2 Projected Commercial Demand 2012 - 2017

Note: Excludes 18,700 of projected industrial, manufacturing and warehouse space, as well as space to accommodate government sector growth.

The smaller buildings that characterize much of the area between the potential

station site and downtown would be appropriate to accommodate some of the demand for general office space. Potential tenants include small businesses (e.g. lawyers, accountants, entrepreneurs, start-ups, etc.) that may require lower lease rates and flexible terms insufficient to warrant new construction

Nearly 50% of consumer spending by Pawtucket residents occurs outside of the City today. There is an opportunity for an additional 52,500 to 157,500 SF of retail space, representing a recapture of 5% to 15% of current sales leakage. Key opportunities include the development of restaurants, taverns, and smaller “niche” retail space, which would also be appropriate for the rail station area.

While there is high demand for medical and health related space citywide, there is likely a greater propensity for much of this development to occur outside the study area and closer to Memorial Hospital.

Conclusions and Recommendations

Continued development in the downtown area of Pawtucket is more likely to come about as a result of changing demographics and market conditions rather than in response to a development of a new Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station.

The available housing supply is nearly sufficient to accommodate projected household demand over the next five years. The anticipated development of larger multi-family properties (e.g. Phase II of the Union Wadding mill conversion) will have the capacity to meet near-term demand for the higher end rental market.

Office Space 10,000 12,000

Retail Sector

Dine and Drink 1,400 4,200

Specialty, Niche 1,500 4,500

General Mdse 3,000 9,000

Apparel 1,400 4,200

Medical, Health Sector 32,000 37,000


Estimated Citywide Commercial Demand

Annual SF (low)

Annual SF (high)



Although not a primary catalyst, a new rail station in the downtown area could serve to accelerate development. There has been a recent shift towards smaller, higher income households and the availability of rail service may further spur the redevelopment of existing housing stock to accommodate these demands. It also has the potential to accelerate retail development and to help recapture a portion of currently identified leakages in local consumer spending.

Much of the land near the potential rail station consists of smaller parcels, under different ownership. Without direct control of these parcels, the City’s capacity to encourage development is limited and best directed toward serving in a partnership role with interested private sector entities.

The City is already taking proactive steps to support economic development in downtown and the proposed station area by modifying local zoning codes, making streetscape improvements, and pursuing policies to encourage building reuse. These efforts should be continued. Additional actions to further support and catalyze long-term redevelopment of parcels near the potential rail station include:

Marketing

Partnering with the private sector (e.g. owners, brokers, local organizations etc.) on promotional efforts to “market the area” rather than individual properties.

Continuing to implement Comprehensive Plan recommendations to facilitate land assemblage, support marketing and development, and help secure funding.

Engaging both the development community and local citizens in planning for transit-supportive development.

Identify & Target Priority Investments

Encouraging reinvestment by working with property owners to identify the potential of priority sites for residential and/or mixed-use projects, support in-fill development and utilization.

Designating underutilized segments of rail station development parcels as high priority sites for mixed-use development, oriented both towards the station and downtown and considered for retail or small commercial space.

Taking action to improve local access (e.g. pedestrian and ADA accessibility).

Zoning & Other Policies

Continuing to rezone the area surrounding a potential station and extending “allowances” offered in the Mill Building Reuse District to a broader geography and potentially other building types.

Providing incentives to support walkable, mixed-use development (e.g. reduced parking allowances, traffic mitigation)

Streamlining the site plan and approval process.



Financing Tools

Establishing a local challenge grant program, with possible public contributions, to create and sustain a financial resource for appropriate redevelopment efforts.

Considering potential short-term abatements of incremental property taxes realized due to property re-investment.

Affordable Housing Initiatives

Developing plans and policies to maintain and/or increase the supply of housing available to low- and moderate-income households, including deed-restricted affordable housing.

Working with local housing developers to meet affordable housing needs, secure priority development sites, and maintain affordability in existing housing units.

Identifying and securing financial commitments or incentives to support affordable housing (or land) acquisition, development and/or preservation.



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Introduction 1-1 Prepared by RKG and Anne Galbraith – October 2013

1Introduction

The Rhode Island Department of Transportation (RIDOT), in cooperation with the City of Pawtucket, is conducting an alternatives analysis and performing preliminary design for a potential new Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station. The project is being pursued in order to enhance local mobility, increase regional access to jobs and activity centers, and support local planning goals. The new station would be located in downtown Pawtucket, along the active rail corridor now service Amtrak’s Northeast Corridor service and the Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority’s (MBTA’s) Providence commuter rail line.

The purpose of this research and analysis is to provide a market overview of existing real estate and economic conditions in the City of Pawtucket and an evaluation of the impact a new Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station may have on local development and real estate market trends.

The City of Pawtucket’s Comprehensive Plan1 looks to introduce a commuter rail station to provide transportation alternatives for Pawtucket residents traveling to Boston, Providence, and beyond. As part of the needs analysis conducted for its comprehensive planning process, the City found that developing a Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station would increase mobility and access to economic opportunity, as well as improve the environment and encourage economic growth.

Another local organization, the Pawtucket Foundation, representing the business and not-for-profit sector in the City, also has a specific objective2 to build a new MBTA commuter rail stop serving both Pawtucket and Central Falls and to encourage Transit Oriented Development (TOD) in the surrounding area.

The City is already taking proactive steps to support economic development identifying local zoning modifications, streetscape improvements and other policies that might encourage redevelopment and reuse in the downtown area.

This report provides an overview of baseline market conditions and outlines other demographic and market trends that could potentially impact future development in

1 City of Pawtucket Comprehensive Plan, 5-Year Update. March 2011. 2 Envision Pawtucket FY2012-2014, Pawtucket Foundation. 2011.



the City, including new development in the vicinity of a new Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station. It is intended to assist the City in designing new policies and taking other actions to further enhance development potential.

Two alternative sites, located just to the west of downtown Pawtucket are being considered for a Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station development: 1) a Barton Street site to the west of the rail corridor; and/or, 2) a former Providence & Worcester (P&W) rail yard site to the east of the rail corridor. Both are located between Dexter and Conant Streets and are within walking distance to downtown Pawtucket.

Barton Street Site (Site #1): The Barton Street site is identified as tax parcel 44-0539 by the City of Pawtucket Assessor and consists of nearly 4.4 acres. Existing development on the site includes a neighborhood convenience retail center (47,650 square feet). The FY 2012 assessed value is nearly $2.3 million, inclusive of $1.4 million for the retail improvement. Surrounding uses include the large Conant Street mill complex with varying levels of utilization, as well as commercial and residential uses to the north across Dexter Street.

Providence & Worcester (P&W) Rail Yard Site (Site #2): The P&W Rail yard site is located at 280 Pine Street and identified by the City of Pawtucket Assessor as tax parcel 44-0559. The site is 8.5 acres with an FY 2012 assessed value of nearly $1.6 million. It is a former freight rail yard with a vacant outbuilding on the property. Surrounding uses include various industry buildings, the former Union Wadding mill complex which is undergoing conversion to residential use, and the Mineral Spring Cemetery.

Throughout this analysis the study area refers to U.S. Census Tracts 151, 152 and 161 combined, (see Figure 1) which encompasses the two alternative sites and an approximate ¼-mile (walking) radius. It should be noted that the study area includes a broader geography than the ¼-mile radius, (as much of the data is suppressed for the smaller geography). The study area is a densely populated mixed-use area, bisected by the rail corridor. Existing land use patterns are largely



characterized by older under-utilized and/or vacant manufacturing space and multi-family housing, with scattered retail along main corridors.

Figure 1 Study Area with Census Tracts and Radii

This market analysis report relies largely on a review of data and inputs from the US Census (2000 and 2010), the American Community Survey; proprietary modeling from the DemographicsNow, various local, State and federal agencies, as well real estate market projections prepared by RKG.





Socio-Economic Trends 2-1 Prepared by RKG and Anne Galbraith – October 2013

2Socio-Economic

Trends

This chapter presents selected baseline and projected socio-demographic and economic characteristics for the area surrounding a potential Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station, as well as for the City of Pawtucket and Rhode Island as a whole.

2.1 Demographic Indicators

As reported by the US Census and shown in Table 3, the study area had a population of 11,512 in 2012, or about 16% of the City of Pawtucket’s total population. In 2012, the study area has a higher percentage of Hispanic population, at 31%, compared to the City (20%) or the State (13%). Similarly, in 2012, the study area had a higher proportion of non-white population, at 58%, compared with the City (34%) and the State (19%).

The study area population declined 5% between 2000 and 2012 representing a loss of 600 persons. The City of Pawtucket realized a 2.6% decline in population, while the State experienced a small increase overall. The number of households in the study area declined 1%, which was less than the rate of decline in the City, and again in contrast to a slight growth in the State overall.

The total population and number of households citywide are projected3 to continue to decline through 2017, the rate of decline is anticipated to become much slower and close to stabilization. The population of the study area is projected to continue to decline while the number of households are projected to increase, albeit marginally. Conversely, nominal increases in both population and number of households are projected for the State.

3 Housing projections developed through proprietary modeling from DemographicsNow, a private sector vendor of

demographic and economic data (note www.demographicsnow).



Average household size in the study area was 2.31 persons in 2012. Although the household size in the study area has been declining at a rate faster than the City or State average, it is anticipated to remain higher through 2017.

Both median household income and per capita income for the study area are well below observed City and statewide averages. In 2012, median household income in the study area was 51% of the citywide average and about 38% of the statewide average income. Despite projected income growth by 2017, study area income levels are projected to continue to be significantly lower than both the City and State averages (refer to Table 3).



Table 3 Selected Socioeconomic Characteristics and Trends

Selected Characteristics

Study Area 1/

% over Prior Pawtucket

% over Prior

Rhode Island

% over Prior

Study Area as % of City

Total Population

2000 12,103 73,118 1,047,175 16.6%

2012 11,512 -4.9% 71,240 -2.6% 1,051,249 0.4% 16.2%

2017 11,459 -0.5% 70,709 -0.7% 1,055,667 0.4% 16.2%

Non-White Population

2000 5,971 18,017 156,880 33.1%

2012 6,729 12.7% 24,213 34.4% 197,491 25.9% 27.8%

2017 6,737 0.1% 24,319 0.4% 198,909 0.7% 27.7%

Hispanic Ethnicity

2000 3,299 10,242 90,755 32.2%

2012 3,615 9.6% 14,210 38.7% 131,515 44.9% 25.4%

2017 3,959 9.5% 14,280 0.5% 132,204 0.5% 27.7%

Total Households

2000 5,035 30,098 408,147 16.7%

2012 4,984 -1.0% 29,120 -3.2% 413,684 1.4% 17.1%

2017 5,018 0.7% 29,031 -0.3% 418,588 1.2% 17.3%

Avg HH Size

2000 2.40 2.43 2.57 98.9%

2012 2.31 -3.9% 2.45 0.7% 2.54 -1.0% 94.4%

2017 2.28 -1.1% 2.44 -0.4% 2.52 -0.8% 93.8%

Median HH Income

2000 NA $32,133 $41,997 NA

2012 $21,140 NA $41,669 29.7% $56,367 34.2% 50.7%

2017 $24,090 14.0% $45,998 10.4% $63,206 12.1% 52.4%

Per Capita Income

2010 NA $16,867 $20,661 NA

2012 $15,014 NA $22,844 35.4% $30,557 47.9% 65.7%

2017 $17,446 16.2% $25,048 9.6% $33,899 10.9% 69.7%

Source : RKG Associates, Inc. and DemographicsNow

1/. Census tracts 151, 152 and 161 - combined



2.2 Economic Indicators

This section presents an overview of employment and average wages (by industry sector, excluding the government sector), in Pawtucket as compared to Rhode Island overall4.

2.2.1 Existing Employment

Employment in Pawtucket declined from 24,155 positions in 2007 to 21,651 positions in 2011, indicating a 10% loss. This decline is greater than the overall statewide rate of employment loss of nearly 7% over the same period. The loss of employment in Pawtucket includes a small, but notable, loss in the health care sector which was one of the few sectors that saw overall growth across the State (however, as discussed in Section 2.2.4 below, this sector is projected to realize local growth in the future). More significant local employment losses were realized in the Manufacturing, Information Services and Retail sectors. However, as shown in Table 4, there were several local industry sectors that did increase employment, most notably the Management of Companies and Transportation & Warehousing sectors, which added a combined total of 380 employees.

4 US County Business Patterns, with employment projections prepared by the RI Department of Labor & Training and

RKG.



Table 4 Employment by Industry Sector for Selected Years

Industry Sector and 2-Digit NAICSNumber of Employees 2007 2009 2011 # Chge % Chge 2007 2009 2011 # Chge % Chge 11 - Forestry, Fish, Agriculture NA NA NA NA NA 798 729 704 (94) -11.8%

21 - Mining NA NA NA NA NA 255 194 177 (78) -30.6%

22 - Utilities 10 36 NA NA NA 1,112 1,119 1,077 (35) -3.1%

23 - Construction 1,062 810 941 (121) -11.4% 22,113 17,180 15,681 (6,432) -29.1%

31 - Manufacturing 5,216 4,157 3,685 (1,531) -29.4% 50,810 41,747 40,354 (10,456) -20.6%

42 - Wholesaled Trade 550 420 538 (12) -2.2% 17,194 16,097 16,173 (1,021) -5.9%

44 - Retail Trade 1,928 1,664 1,395 (533) -27.6% 51,501 47,071 46,881 (4,620) -9.0%

48 - Transportation and Warehousing 397 473 473 76 19.1% 9,534 8,683 9,164 (370) -3.9%

51 - Information 242 160 110 (132) -54.5% 10,462 10,112 10,145 (317) -3.0%

52 - Finance and Insurance 863 916 738 (125) -14.5% 26,515 23,628 23,041 (3,474) -13.1%

53 - Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 277 233 197 (80) -28.9% 6,740 5,975 5,645 (1,095) -16.2%

54 - Professional and Technical Services 620 641 644 24 3.9% 21,778 21,127 20,948 (830) -3.8%

55 - Management of Companies and Enterprises 1,414 1,489 1,718 304 21.5% 9,451 9,208 9,849 398 4.2%

56 - Administrative and Waste Services 2,158 1,720 1,935 (223) -10.3% 24,929 22,207 23,401 (1,528) -6.1%

61 - Educational Services 348 376 363 15 4.3% 18,503 19,083 19,379 876 4.7%

62 - Health Care and Social Assistance 5,756 5,671 5,673 (83) -1.4% 76,034 76,912 78,200 2,166 2.8%

71 - Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 335 311 308 (27) -8.1% 8,120 7,637 7,508 (612) -7.5%

72 - Accommodation and Food Services 1,624 1,518 1,540 (84) -5.2% 43,204 41,329 42,565 (639) -1.5%

81 - Other Services, Ex. Public Admin 1,354 1,337 1,312 (42) -3.1% 18,532 17,780 18,299 (233) -1.3%

99 - Unclassified NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

TOTAL 24,155 21,932 21,651 (2,504) -10.4% 417,728 387,824 389,240 (28,488) -6.8%

Source : RI Department of Labor and Training, US County Business Patterns (BEA) and RKG Associates, Inc.

NOTE - Excludes the Government Sector

Pawtucket, RI Rhode Island



2.2.2 Average Annual Wages

Between 2007 and 2011 the average wage in Pawtucket (across all industry sectors, excluding the government sector) increased by almost 10%, rising from $37,500 to $41,200 as in Table 5. This increase is ahead of the estimated 8.5% inflation during this period and higher than the overall statewide average, suggesting that there was real wage growth in certain local industries. Individuals employed locally in Arts & Entertainment, Information Services, Financial Services, Real Estate and Professional Services all realized wage growth that was significantly above the City average. Yet, wages declined or fell short of inflation in several industry sectors and, as a result, total wages increased by less than inflation5.

5 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer price index 2007 - 2011



Table 5 Average Annual Wages by Industry Sector for Selected Years

Industry Sector and 2-Digit NAICSAverage Wage 2007 2009 2011 $ Chge % Chge 2007 2009 2011 $ Chge % Chge 11 - Forestry, Fish, Agriculture NA NA NA NA NA $26,428 $25,099 $25,490 ($938) -3.5%

21 - Mining NA NA NA NA NA $46,071 $47,293 $49,986 $3,915 8.5%

22 - Utilities $63,767 $55,747 NA NA NA $72,939 $82,074 $90,360 $17,421 23.9%

23 - Construction $48,317 $56,885 $53,643 $5,325 11.0% $48,689 $52,206 $52,750 $4,062 8.3%

31 - Manufacturing $38,055 $39,017 $40,934 $2,879 7.6% $46,118 $47,199 $50,827 $4,708 10.2%

42 - Wholesaled Trade $50,509 $51,552 $48,649 ($1,860) -3.7% $59,101 $60,040 $63,773 $4,672 7.9%

44 - Retail Trade $26,031 $26,716 $26,878 $847 3.3% $26,618 $26,343 $26,672 $55 0.2%

48 - Transportation and Warehousing $42,196 $33,992 $36,278 ($5,918) -14.0% $33,856 $35,571 $37,169 $3,313 9.8%

51 - Information $56,892 $70,636 $67,202 $10,310 18.1% $57,568 $59,806 $64,026 $6,458 11.2%

52 - Finance and Insurance $43,442 $48,417 $51,602 $8,160 18.8% $60,846 $67,939 $78,197 $17,351 28.5%

53 - Real Estate and Rental and Leasing $31,645 $44,241 $36,794 $5,149 16.3% $37,085 $36,176 $38,719 $1,634 4.4%

54 - Professional and Technical Services $43,014 $46,662 $49,869 $6,856 15.9% $59,510 $61,877 $64,927 $5,417 9.1%

55 - Management of Companies and Enterprises $95,265 $97,195 $97,672 $2,407 2.5% $96,427 $92,415 $103,185 $6,758 7.0%

56 - Administrative and Waste Services $25,042 $25,421 $26,754 $1,712 6.8% $28,186 $29,638 $30,837 $2,651 9.4%

61 - Educational Services $30,744 $30,736 $31,938 $1,194 3.9% $41,796 $44,359 $46,145 $4,349 10.4%

62 - Health Care and Social Assistance $36,531 $38,331 $39,452 $2,922 8.0% $38,247 $40,682 $41,840 $3,593 9.4%

71 - Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation $32,618 $39,803 $40,618 $8,001 24.5% $23,166 $23,302 $24,442 $1,276 5.5%

72 - Accommodation and Food Services $12,438 $13,173 $14,236 $1,798 14.5% $15,522 $15,902 $16,596 $1,075 6.9%

81 - Other Services, Ex. Public Admin $25,024 $24,707 $24,213 ($811) -3.2% $25,492 $26,393 $26,866 $1,374 5.4%

99 - Unclassified $34,808 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Average Wage all Sectors $37,533 $39,719 $41,242 $3,709 9.9% $39,827 $41,320 $43,526 $3,700 9.3%

Total Employment all Sectors 24,155 21,932 21,651 (2,504) -10.4% 417,728 387,824 389,240 (28,488) -6.8%

Total Wages $mil $871.12 $871.12 $892.93 $21.80 2.5% $16,636.77 $16,024.78 $16,942.22 $305.45 1.8%






2.2.3 Commuting Patterns

The following is reprinted in its entirety (Rhode Island Commuting Patterns Census 2000, Rhode Island Department of Labor & Training, Labor Market Information Unit), indicating that 28% of Pawtucket residents also work in Pawtucket and another 18% in neighboring Providence. In total, approximately 77% of Pawtucket residents worked in Rhode Island, followed by 22% working in Massachusetts. The average travel time to work was approximately 22 minutes and nearly 76% of the commuters drove a personal vehicle to work. According to the data, approximately 600 Pawtucket residents commute to Boston as their place of employment.





2.2.4 Employment Projections

The Rhode Island Department of Labor and Training (RIDLT) developed statewide employment projections, by major industry sector, for 2020, as presented in Table 6. Rhode Island private sector employment (i.e., excluding the government sector) in 2020 is projected at 438,050 representing a 12.5% increase over 2011. If the ratio of Pawtucket employment to state employment remains constant (at around 5.7%, averaged over the 2007, 2009 and 2011 time periods as benchmark years) this would result in 24,300 employees in Pawtucket in 2020, accounting for an increase of nearly 3,100 (excluding the government sector).

As projected by RIDLT, the greatest employment growth would occur in the Health Care sector. Manufacturing would recover some of the losses experienced over the last decade, and Retail, Accommodation/Food Services and various Professional services would also see employment growth.

Table 6 Employment Projections by Industry Sector for 2020

Industry Sector and 2-Digit NAICSNumber of Employees 11 - Forestry, Fish, Agriculture 704 NA NA NA

21 - Mining 189 NA NA NA

22 - Utilities 952 NA NA NA

23 - Construction 19,476 941 997 56

31 - Manufacturing 41,161 3,685 4,044 359

42 - Wholesaled Trade 18,098 538 552 14

44 - Retail Trade 52,413 1,395 1,797 402

48 - Transportation and Warehousing 10,704 473 525 52

51 - Information 11,200 110 187 77

52 - Finance and Insurance 24,562 738 845 107

53 - Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 6,102 197 235 38

54 - Professional and Technical Services 25,515 644 761 117

55 - Management of Companies and Enterprises 11,543 1,718 1,871 153

56 - Administrative and Waste Services 27,075 1,935 2,231 296

61 - Educational Services 21,317 NA NA NA

62 - Health Care and Social Assistance 90,868 5,673 6,722 1,049

71 - Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 8,687 308 356 48

72 - Accommodation and Food Services 48,396 1,540 1,783 243

81 - Other Services, Ex. Public Admin 19,086 1,312 1,399 87

99 - Unclassified NA NA NA NA

TOTAL 438,047 21,207 24,305 3,098



Pawtucket Baseline 2011

Pawtucket Projected 2020

RI Projected 2020

Pawtucket Net Change



2.3 Summary of Demographic & Economic Trends

Although this decade was characterized by a national economic recession it is clear that, by several socio-economic indicators, the area surrounding a potential new commuter rail station lags behind both the City of Pawtucket and overall conditions in the State of Rhode Island. However, this analysis has found that some socio-economic trends are projected to change course over the next five years:

Overall population in the study area and City are expected to continue to decline

through 2017 however the rate of decline is anticipated to significantly slow, and nearly stabilize.

The average household size in the study area is currently less than either the City or State averages, and it is also dropping more quickly, a trend indicative of households transitioning from families and/or couples to single individuals.

Median household income within the study area is currently well below City and State averages, but is projected to grow 14% by 2017, at a rate faster than both the City and State.

Total employment in the City has declined at a rate faster than the State between 2007 and 2011, and average wage growth is also trending behind the State. However, a few new businesses did move into the City during this period, and certain industry sectors realized wage growth that exceeds statewide averages.

Finally, based on historic trends, Pawtucket could capture nearly 6% of projected growth in Rhode Island’s private sector employment base, or an estimated 3,100 new jobs by 2020.





Residential Market 3-1 Prepared by RKG and Anne Galbraith – October 2013

3Residential Market

This section documents includes a review of housing supply, vacancy rates and building permit activity for new construction. Projections regarding future housing supply, both within the City of Pawtucket and the area surrounding a potential Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station, are also presented6.

3.1 Existing Housing Supply

In 2010, the US Census estimated there were a total of 32,055 housing units in the City of Pawtucket and 5,683 in the three census tracts surrounding the potential commuter rail station (see Table 7), or in other words, about 17.7% of the City’s total housing stock is approximate to the proposed Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station site. Over the 10-year period between 2000 and 2010, the City gained a net total of 236 housing units (0.7%), all vacant units as the number of owner occupied and renter occupied units declined. In comparison, while the study area also experienced an increase in the number of vacant housing units, there was also a net increase of 44 owner-occupied units (5.3% growth).

The City’s housing stock is balanced between owner-occupied and rental properties, with about 45% of occupied housing units (in 2010) being owner occupied and 55% occupied by renters. Conversely, the occupied housing supply within the study area, in 2010, is predominately on the rental market (despite a decline in the number of rental units over the last decade), with 82% of the units being renter occupied.

3.2 Residential Vacancy Rates

In 2010, there were an estimated 3,033 vacant housing units in Pawtucket, translating to an overall residential vacancy rate of about 9.5%. This is a near doubling of the

6 Developed by RKG Associates, Inc. utilizing census data; DemographicsNow proprietary projections; building permit

data; and sales activity trends.



vacancy rate experienced in 2000. Within the study area the residential vacancy rate was 12.4% in 2010, above the citywide average and greater than the 8.7% vacancy in the study area in 2000. A total of 704 units within the study area and approximate walking distance of a potential Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station were vacant in 2010, representing an increase of 220 units since 2000.

As shown in Table 7, within both the City and study area, most of the vacant units were for rent, at 52% of the City’s vacancies and 54% of the study area’s vacancies. About 10% of the vacancies (City and study area) were for sale, indicating a tighter market for owner-occupied units. More notably is that 31% of vacant units in the City and 34% within the study area are neither for sale or rent, thus not being actively marketed. This could partially be comprised of abandoned and/or foreclosed units, but nonetheless reflects a generally weak market for the existing housing stock, noting that in both the City and the study area the greatest percent increase in housing was vacant housing, with the City at 71% and the study area at nearly 46%.

Table 7 Housing Characteristics for the City of Pawtucket and the Study Area

City of Pawtucket 2000 2010 # % 2000 2010Total Housing Units 31,819 32,055 236 0.7% 100.0% 100.0%

Occupied Units 30,047 29,022 (1,025) -3.4% 94.4% 90.5%

Owner Households 13,346 13,020 (326) -2.4% 41.9% 40.6%

Renter Households 16,701 16,002 (699) -4.2% 52.5% 49.9%

Vacant Units 1,772 3,033 1,261 71.2% 5.6% 9.5%

For rent 1,011 1,582 571 56% 3.2% 4.9%

For sale only 199 311 112 56% 0.6% 1.0%

Rented or sold, not occupied 197 114 (83) -42% 0.6% 0.4%

For seasonal use 70 76 6 9% 0.2% 0.2%

All other vacant 295 950 655 222% 0.9% 3.0%

Study Area 2000 2010 # % 2000 2010Total Housing Units 5,534 5,683 149 2.7% 100.0% 100.0%

Occupied Units 5,050 4,979 (71) -1.4% 91.3% 87.6%

Owner Households 828 872 44 5.3% 15.0% 17.5%


Vacant Units 484 704 220 45.5% 8.7% 12.4%

For rent 285 382 97 34% 5.1% 54.3%

For sale only 23 65 42 183% 0.4% 9.2%

Rented or sold, not occupied 65 10 (55) -85% 1.2% 1.4%

For seasonal use 7 10 3 43% 0.1% 1.4%

All other vacant 104 237 133 128% 1.9% 33.7%

[1] All housing presented as % of TOTAL housing units


Change % of Total [1]



3.3 Building Permit Activity & Anticipated New Development

Over the 2000 to 2011 period there were a total of 239 building permits issued in Pawtucket. About 20 building permits per year were issued over this time frame for single-family residential development (Table 8). The multi-family permits included an average of about 4 two-family units per year and 13 units in larger scale developments. Major residential projects completed include the Bayley Lofts (25 units in 2005), the Riverfront Lofts (59 units in 2004) and the 125 unit Slater Cotton Mill apartments.

As shown in Table 8, it is clear that the value of newly constructed units has significantly increased over the last decade. The average value of new single family homes increased from $60,000/unit (2000 to 2003) to nearly $200,000/unit during the latter part of the decade. Similarly, the average value of multi-family construction was less than $70,000/unit prior to 2005, increasing to over $120,000/unit from 2007 to 2011. Over the twelve-year period, the average value of new single-family construction was about $100,800, and multi-family units averaged about $80,000.

Building permit activity (number of units) for all housing types has generally declined since 2006, with the exception of strong multi-family activity in 2009 when the first phase of the Union Wadding development was permitted.

Since 2011, the most notable development activity in the study area includes a proposal for Phase II of the Union Wadding development, which is located immediately adjacent to the potential station site off Goff Avenue. Discussions with representatives of the City of Pawtucket indicate this project is anticipated to result in 242 additional rental units.

Three additional residential redevelopment efforts are also anticipated, but are outside walking range from a potential Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station. These include 139 new rental units at the American Wire complex on Central Avenue, 376 future apartment units at the Thread Factory north of downtown and a second phase of the Hope Webbing complex (live/work space targeting artisans) on Main Street near the Providence border.



Table 8 Residential Building Permit Activity – Pawtucket, RI

2001 2008 2009 2010 2011 Average

Single Family

# of Units 16 17 32 27 43 13 41 19 17 7 3 4 20

Value $900,857 $990,900 $1,957,400 $1,652,600 $3,463,700 $855,300 $6,042,100 $3,359,400 $2,477,400 $905,200 $604,600 $884,000 $2,007,788

Avg Value $56,304 $58,288 $61,169 $61,207 $80,551 $65,792 $147,368 $176,811 $145,729 $129,314 $201,533 $221,000 $100,809

Two Family

# of Units 2 2 4 18 0 10 2 0 2 2 2 4 4

Value $90,000 $108,000 $224,400 $1,172,100 $0 $643,188 $286,400 $0 $230,400 $312,000 $288,000 $478,400 $319,407

Avg Value $45,000 $54,000 $56,100 $65,117 $0 $64,319 $143,200 $0 $115,200 $156,000 $144,000 $119,600 $79,852

Multi‐Family

# of Units 0 0 6 84 15 20 0 3 3 26 0 0 13

Value $0 $0 $450,000 $5,964,800 $854,000 $924,000 $0 $389,600 $304,000 $4,452,715 $0 $0 $1,111,593

Avg Value $0 $0 $75,000 $71,010 $56,933 $46,200 $0 $129,867 $101,333 $171,258 $0 $0 $84,963

Source : US Census Bureau and RKG Associates, Inc.

Building Permits 20072000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006



3.4 Housing Supply Projections

Future projections for Pawtucket’s housing supply were developed by DemographicsNow7 proprietary modeling. In 2017, citywide housing units are projected to increase marginally (0.3%) by 110 units. However, it is anticipated that there will be a shift in the type of units available, with the number of owner occupied units projected to decline by 1,106 units (8.5%) by 2017, while renter occupied units are projected to increase by 1,115 units (7.0%). A slight increase in the citywide vacancy rate is also projected, from 9.5% in 2010 to 9.7% in 2017.

The housing supply in the study area (see Table 9) is projected to grow by 1.1% in total or by approximately 60 units. Similar to the City experiences, the number of owner occupied units in the study area is projected to decrease and represent 13% of the total housing units. Occupied renter units are projected to increase by nearly 170 units (or by 4.1%) and represent nearly 75% of the total housing units in the study area. The number of vacant units is also projected to increase in the study area.

Table 9 Projected Housing Units for the City of Pawtucket and the Study Area

3.5 Household Characteristics and Trends

This section identifies trends and the characteristics of both owner and rental occupied households in Pawtucket and the study area in order to better understand

7 Housing projections developed through proprietary modeling from DemographicsNow, a private sector vendor of

demographic and economic data (note www.demographicsnow).

Change % of Total [1]City of Pawtucket 2000 2010 # % 2000 2010Total Housing Units 31,819 32,055 236 0.7% 100.0% 100.0% 32,165 100.0%

Owner Occupied 13,346 13,020 (326) -2.4% 41.9% 40.6% 11,914 37.0%

Renter Occupied 16,701 16,002 (699) -4.2% 52.5% 49.9% 17,117 53.2%

Vacant 1,772 3,033 1,261 71.2% 5.6% 9.5% 3,134 9.7%

Study Area 2000 2010 # % 2000 2010 2017 % TotalTotal Housing Units 5,534 5,683 149 2.7% 100.0% 100.0% 5,745 100.0%

Owner Occupied 828 872 44 5.3% 15.0% 15.3% 742 12.9%

Renter Occupied 4,222 4,107 (115) -2.7% 76.3% 72.3% 4,276 74.4%

Vacant 484 704 220 45.5% 8.7% 12.4% 727 12.7%

[1] All housing presented as % of TOTAL housing units

Source: US Census, DemographicsNow & RKG Associates, Inc.

Projected 2017

% of Total [1]



the potential market for new residential development. Household characteristics (age and income) from the decennial census are evaluated against housing tenure (which refers to whether the unit is owner occupied or rented) and other housing characteristics to better understand ongoing trends and the type of near term residential development that may best meet market demand.

3.5.1 Characteristics of Owner Households

Key characteristics and trends in owner households are analyzed in this section.

3.5.1.1 Owner Households by Age of Householder

In 2010, the City of Pawtucket had more individuals aged 65 or older living in owner occupied units than any other age cohort, despite experiencing the greatest decline of owners in this cohort. In the study area the greatest concentration of owner occupied units was among the 45 to 54 year old cohort (which gained 100 households during the decade), followed by those aged 65 and older. Citywide, about 26% of owner-occupied households were headed by individuals over the age of 65 in 2010 and, in the study area, about 23% of owner households were occupied by this age group. Over the last decade, there was an overall decline of 326 owner households citywide, while there was an increase of 44 owner households in the study area. The City realized relatively large gains and growth rates for owner units occupied by those age 45 to 64, although not enough to offset losses in other cohorts. During this timeframe, the study area essentially only saw the number of owner occupied units increase within the 45 to 54 age cohort (although there was a nominal increase of four households for those aged 25 to 34 years).



Table 10 Owner Households by Age of Householder

3.5.1.2 Owner Households by Income of Householder

The median household income for home owners in Pawtucket was $59,162 in 2010, which was 27% higher than in 2000. This shift in affluence can be seen in Table 11, with the number of owners earning less $75,000 declining, while the number of owners earning $75,000 or more increased. In 2010, approximately 63% of the total owner-occupied households in Pawtucket earned $75,000 or less, compared to 78% in 2000. Conversely, the number of owner households in the City earning $75,000 or more increased from 22% to %37. During the same time frame, owner households in the study area realized a decline in households where the householder earned less than $25,000 and increases in the number of household at all other levels. The median household income of owners in the Study area increased from $37,400 in 2000 to nearly $48,100 in 2010. This represents a similar 28% growth to the City although the absolute median household income for owners in the study area continues to lag the City. In 2000, owner households with incomes exceeding $75,000 represented 19% of the study area and by 2010 this increased to a 28% representation.

2000 2010 # % 2000 2010Total Housing Units 31,819 32,055 236 0.7% NA NA


less than 25 yrs 113 134 21 18.6% 0.8% 1.0%

25 to 34 yrs 1,344 1,378 34 2.5% 10.1% 10.6%

35 to 44 yrs 2,800 2,316 (484) -17.3% 21.0% 17.8%

45 to 54 yrs 2,892 2,997 105 3.6% 21.7% 23.0%

55 to 64 yrs 2,064 2,768 704 34.1% 15.5% 21.3%

65 yrs + 4,133 3,427 (706) -17.1% 31.0% 26.3%

Study AreaTotal Housing Units 5,534 5,683 149 2.7% NA NA


less than 25 yrs 14 0 (14) -100.0% 1.7% 0.0%

25 to 34 yrs 97 101 4 4.4% 11.7% 11.6%

35 to 44 yrs 190 171 (19) -10.2% 22.9% 19.6%

45 to 54 yrs 165 265 100 60.4% 19.9% 30.3%

55 to 64 yrs 144 137 (7) -4.8% 17.4% 15.7%

65 yrs + 218 198 (20) -9.0% 26.3% 22.8%

Source: US Census, American Community Survey & RKG Associates, Inc.

ChangeCity of Pawtucket

% of Total



Table 11 Owner Households by Householder Income

3.5.1.3 Owner Households by Median Housing Value

During the 2000 to 2010 time frame, the median value of owner-occupied units in the City nearly doubled, from $99,000 to slightly more than $196,400 (a 98% increase). There was an increase in housing at all values except those less than $100,000 (refer to Table 12). Referring back to Table 11, the percent increase in owner occupied median housing values in the City far exceeded the percent increase in median householder income. During the same period, median home values in the study area more than tripled from nearly $81,000 (2000) to $255,000 (2010) with notable increases in the number of housing units valued at $200,000 or more. This is notable, as in 2000 there were no homes valued at more than $200,000 in the study area. In both the City and the study area, median values are increasing at a pace greater than median incomes for home owners and overall median incomes for Pawtucket residents generally remain low, at less than $60,000 for the City as a whole and about $48,000 for the study area, suggesting that many new owners may be moving in from outside of the City.

City of Pawtucket 2000 2010 # % 2000 2010Total Housing Units 31,819 32,055 236 0.7% NA NA


less than $25,000 3,217 1,985 (1,232) -38.3% 24.1% 15.2%

$25,000 to $49,999 4,057 3,416 (641) -15.8% 30.4% 26.2%

$50,000 to $74,999 3,187 2,833 (354) -11.1% 23.9% 21.8%

$75,000 to $99,999 1,740 2,097 357 20.5% 13.0% 16.1%

$100,000 to $149,999 794 1,936 1,142 143.8% 5.9% 14.9%

$150,000 or more 351 753 402 114.5% 2.6% 5.8%

Median Income $46,510 $59,162 $12,652 27.2%



less than $25,000 280 167 (113) -40.2% 33.8% 19.2%

$25,000 to $49,999 270 291 21 7.8% 32.6% 33.4%

$50,000 to $74,999 118 171 53 44.7% 14.2% 19.6%

$75,000 to $99,999 125 148 23 18.7% 15.1% 17.0%

$100,000 to $149,999 30 59 29 95.2% 3.6% 6.8%

$150,000 or more 5 36 31 612.2% 0.6% 4.1%

Median Income $37,407 $48,082 $10,675 28.5%

Source: US Census; American Community Survey & RKG Associates, Inc.

N/A

N/A

Change % of Total



Table 12 Owner Households by Median Housing Value

3.5.1.4 Owner Households by Year Moved into Home

Approximately 5,450 owners moved into the City Pawtucket over the last decade (since 2000), and this accounted for nearly 42% of owner households. The annual average was about 545 households, indicating an annual turnover rate of 4.2% (refer to Table 13) over the decade. These statistics are the basis for understanding turnover of owner households.

2000 2010 # % 2000 2010Total Households 31,819 32,055 236 0.7% NA NA

Owner Households 13,346 13,020 (326) -2.4% 100.0% 100.0%less than $100,000 6,993 662 (6,331) -90.5% 52.4% 5.1%

$100,000 to $199,999 6,076 6,220 144 2.4% 45.5% 47.8%$200,000 to $299,999 191 4,887 4,696 2461% 1.4% 37.5%$300,000 to $399,999 54 936 882 1644% 0.4% 7.2%$400,000 to $499,999 13 220 207 1540% 0.1% 1.7%

$500,000 and up 19 95 75 388% 0.1% 0.7%

Median Owner Value $99,000 $196,400 $97,400 98.4%

Study AreaTotal Households 5,534 5,683 149 2.7% NA NA

Owner Households 828 872 44 5.3% 100.0% 100.0%less than $100,000 513 32 (481) -93.8% 61.9% 3.7%

$100,000 to $199,999 315 168 (147) -46.7% 38.1% 19.3%$200,000 to $299,999 0 429 429 NA 0.0% 49.2%$300,000 to $399,999 0 226 226 NA 0.0% 26.0%$400,000 to $499,999 0 0 0 NA 0.0% 0.0%

$500,000 and up 0 17 17 NA 0.0% 1.9%

Median Owner Value $80,746 $255,032 $174,286 215.8%


Change % of Total

N/A

N/A

City of Pawtucket



Table 13 Owner Households by Year Moved into Home

3.5.2 Characteristics of Renter Households

Key characteristics and trends in renter households are analyzed in this section.

3.5.2.1 Renter Households by Age of Householder

As shown in Table 14, the householder age of those occupying rental households in Pawtucket was well balanced across most age cohorts, with most renters in 2010 identified as 25 to 54 years old, despite an overall decline in this cohort. In total there was a loss of nearly 700 renter households in the City, with losses in all renter age cohorts except for those aged 45 to 64 years. In 2000, this age cohort accounted for 25% of the City renter occupied housing but had increased to a 33% representation by 2010.

Total renter households in the study area realized a decline of 115 units (or 16% of the City decline) with losses in all age cohorts except those aged 35 to 54 years. In 2000, this cohort accounted for 34.5% of study area renter occupied housing, but had increased to a 44% representation by 2010. In total there was a decline of 115 renter occupied units the study area (2000 to 2010) and an increase of 44 owner occupied units (refer to Table 10) indicating that while some renters became owners over the decade, this difference suggests that they did not purchase a home in the study area.

City of Pawtucket 2000 2010 # % 2000 2010Total Households 30,047 29,022 (1,025) -3.4% 100% 100%


Owners by Move In (2010 only) %Owner %Total2008 or later 1,214 9.3% 4.2%2000 to 2007 4,239 32.6% 14.6%1990 to 1999 2,301 17.7% 7.9%1980 to 1989 1,963 15.1% 6.8%prior to 1980 3,304 25.4% 11.4%


AVG/Yr

196

N/A

607

530

230

Change % of Total



Table 14 Renter Households by Age of Householder

3.5.2.2 Renter Households by Householder Income

As shown in Table 15, the median household income for renters in Pawtucket was $26,500 in 2010, a 15% increase over 2000, but yet is about 55% lower than the median income for owner households (at $59,200) in the City. The majority of renters in Pawtucket have a median income of less than $49,999, at nearly 84% in 2000 and 77% in 2010. During the decade the City gained renter households earning $50,000 to $99,999 and lost renter households in all other income brackets. The median income of renter households in the study area declined by slightly more than $400 between 2000 and 2010, noting a loss of higher income households and a continuing preponderance of renter households earning less than $25,000. In 2000, approximately 32% of the citywide renter households earning less than $25,000 were in the study area and this was 37% in 2010.

2000 2010 # % 2000 2010Total Housing Units 31,819 32,055 236 0.7% NA NA


less than 25 yrs 1,600 1,293 (307) -19.2% 9.6% 8.1%

25 to 34 yrs 4,181 3,648 (533) -12.7% 25.0% 22.8%

35 to 44 yrs 3,710 3,326 (384) -10.4% 22.2% 20.8%

45 to 54 yrs 2,487 3,257 770 31.0% 14.9% 20.4%

55 to 64 yrs 1,679 2,031 352 21.0% 10.1% 12.7%

65 yrs + 3,044 2,447 (597) -19.6% 18.2% 15.3%



less than 25 yrs 422 247 (175) -41.4% 10.0% 6.0%

25 to 34 yrs 858 721 (137) -15.9% 20.3% 17.6%

35 to 44 yrs 866 933 67 7.7% 20.5% 22.7%

45 to 54 yrs 592 876 285 48.1% 14.0% 21.3%

55 to 64 yrs 454 415 (39) -8.7% 10.8% 10.1%

65 yrs + 1,030 914 (116) -11.3% 24.4% 22.3%

Source: US Census, American Community Survey & RKG Associates, Inc.

% of Total City of Pawtucket

Change



Table 15 Renter Households by Householder Income

3.5.2.3 Renter Households by Median Monthly Rents

As shown in Table 16, the median monthly rent in the City of Pawtucket has increased 62% since 2000, rising from around $500/month to slightly more than $800/month. In 2000, approximately 98% of the City renters paid less than $1,000 in monthly rent and by 2010 this had declined to 76%. Conversely, in 2010 approximately 25% of the citywide renters paid more than $1,000/month compared with 2% in 2000. In 2010 the majority of citywide renter paid $750 to $999 in monthly rent. Median monthly rents in the study area increased by nearly 127% since 2000 but they still lag the citywide rent. Despite a decline of nearly 1,360 renter households paying less than $500/month in the study area, this still represents the greatest concentration of renter households (by median monthly rent).in the number of households, representing nearly 60% of all such renters households citywide. Approximately 24% of the citywide renters pay more than $1,000/month as compared with 10% in the study area. While this is an improvement for the study area (compared with 2000) nonetheless nearly 70% of the renters in the study are earn less than $25,000 (refer to Table 15).

City of Pawtucket 2000 2010 # % 2000 2010Total Housing Units 31,819 32,055 236 0.7% NA NA


less than $25,000 8,854 7,727 (1,127) -12.7% 53.0% 48.3%

$25,000 to $49,999 5,151 4,575 (576) -11.2% 30.8% 28.6%

$50,000 to $74,999 1,951 2,686 735 37.7% 11.7% 16.8%

$75,000 to $99,999 421 804 383 90.9% 2.5% 5.0%

$100,000 to $149,000 199 124 (75) -37.7% 1.2% 0.8%

$150,000 or more 125 87 (38) -30.8% 0.7% 0.5%

Median Income $23,015 $26,490 $3,475 15.1%



less than $25,000 2,860 2,850 (10) -0.4% 67.7% 69.4%

$25,000 to $49,999 920 784 (136) -14.7% 21.8% 19.1%

$50,000 to $74,999 297 327 30 10.1% 7.0% 8.0%

$75,000 to $99,999 93 81 (12) -13.1% 2.2% 2.0%

$100,000 to $149,999 28 65 37 132.9% 0.7% 1.6%

$150,000 or more 22 0 (22) -100.0% 0.5% 0.0%

Median Income $18,452 $18,015 ($437) -2.4%


N/A

N/A

Change % of Total



Table 16 Renter Households by Median Monthly Rent

3.5.2.4 Renter Households by Year Moved into Home

Table 17 exhibits the number of renter households in Pawtucket by the period they moved into their unit. These statistics are the basis for understanding turnover of renter households. As shown, approximately 52% of the renter households (8,405) moved into their unit in the two years prior to the 2010 census and another 34% (or 671) moved in during the first eight years of the last decade. Combined, an annual average of approximately 1,380 renters per year moved into their units over the last decade, indicating an annual turnover rate of 8.6%.

2000 2010 # % 2000 2010Total Households 31,819 32,055 236 0.7% NA NA

Renter Households 16,701 16,002 (699) -4.2% 100.0% 100.0%No rent 388 465 77 19.9% 2.3% 2.9%

$1 to $499 8,221 2,832 (5,389) -65.6% 49.2% 17.7%$500 to $749 7,079 3,532 (3,547) -50.1% 42.4% 22.1%$750 to $999 764 5,407 4,643 608% 4.6% 33.8%

$1,000 to $1,499 182 3,459 3,277 1801% 1.1% 21.6%$1,500 and up 56 306 250 446% 0.3% 1.9%

Median Gross Rent $498 $806 $308 61.8%

Study AreaTotal Households 5,534 5,683 149 2.7% NA NA

Renter Households 4,222 4,107 (115) -2.7% 100.0% 100.0%No rent 45 22 (24) -52.4% 1.1% 0.5%

$1 to $499 3,026 1,665 (1,361) -45.0% 71.7% 40.5%$500 to $749 1,048 994 (54) -5.1% 24.8% 24.2%$750 to $999 95 1,000 904 948% 2.3% 24.3%

$1,000 to $1,499 0 412 412 NA 0.0% 10.0%$1,500 and up 7 14 7 99% 0.2% 0.3%

Median Gross Rent $341 $776 $435 127.6%


N/A

N/A

City of PawtucketChange % of Total



Table 17 Renter Households by Year Moved into Home

3.6 Summary of Housing Characteristics and Trends

Over the last decade, there was an overall decline of 1,025 occupied households in Pawtucket, including 71 in the study area. Key points about the characteristics of these households, as related to the owner and rental markets include:

Age of Owners – over the last decade, owner occupied households in Pawtucket declined by 326 units, for a 2.4% loss, with the greatest absolute loss among elderly (65+) householders, followed by family-formation (age 35 to 44) householders. The number of households in the two baby-boom generation cohorts (age 45 to 64) increased but not to an extent to offset losses in the other age brackets. The study area experience an increase of 100 units with householders aged 45 to 54 years, which represented nearly all of the citywide 105 unit growth in owner households among this cohort. While this likely reflects an addition of some households to the study area it also reflects an aging in place of existing residents.

Age of Renters – over the last decade, the number of renter households declined by almost 700 units (4%) citywide with losses occurring in all age groups except for baby-boom renters (age 45 to 64). Renter households in the study area declined by 115 units. In the study area there was significant growth among renters aged 45 to 54, but not enough to offset losses in other cohorts. While it is possible that some of these renters became owners over the decade, the change in home ownership suggests that they did not purchase a home in the study area.

Owner Income/Housing Value- the median household income for owners in Pawtucket increased 27% between 2000 and 2010, while the median value of housing grew nearly four times as fast, by 98%, over the same period. The study area has a lower median household income, although there was a 29% growth

City of Pawtucket 2000 2010 # % 2000 2010Total Households 30,047 29,022 (1,025) -3.4% 100% 100%


Renters by Move In (2010 only) %Renter %Total2008 or later 8,405 52.5% 29.0%2000 to 2007 5,367 33.5% 18.5%1990 to 1999 1,465 9.2% 5.0%1980 to 1989 505 3.2% 1.7%prior to 1980 261 1.6% 0.9%


% of Total

AVG/Yr

50

N/A

4,203

671

146

Change



over the decade as there was a subtle shift in affluence, with the number of owners earning less $75,000 declining, and the number of owners earning $75,000 or more increasing. Owner housing value in the study area grew by more than 200% and the median value in 2010 was 30% greater than citywide. Owner housing in the study area represented less than 7% of the citywide owner housing in 2010.

Renter Income/Rental Costs- the median household income (2010) for renters in the City grew by 15% between 2000 and 2010. Yet, it remains, 55% lower than the median income for owner households. The majority of renters (77%) in Pawtucket have a median income of less than $50,000. Furthermore, the median gross rent in Pawtucket has increased about four times faster than median renter household income. In the year 2000, only 1.5% of Pawtucket rental units were priced at more than $1,000 per month. In 2010, about 24% are priced over $1,000 per month. Median income among renters in the study area declined over the decade and in 2010 represented 68% of the median income for renters citywide. Slightly less than 90% of study area renters earned less than $50,000. Rents in the study area increased by nearly 128% and yet 90% of the study area renters pay less than $1,000 per month.

In summary, housing occupancy in the study area surrounding the potential Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station has shifted marginally from a 16% representation in 2000 to an 18% representation in 2010. Within this shift there has also been a marginal increase of older householders with 64% aged 45 or older in 2000 and 69% in 2010. Nonetheless, 53% of the study area owner householders earned less than $50,000 in 2010. Renter households decreased in the study area over the decade, although the renter households in the study area, as a percent of the City, remained fairly constant at around 25%. Renter householders aged 45 and over increased from 49% in 2000 to 54% in 2010. More notable is the decline in renter householders aged less than 35 years, who represented 30% of study area renters in 2000 and 24% in 2010.





Current Housing Market Trends and Near Term Demand 4-1 Prepared by RKG and Anne Galbraith – October 2013

4Current Housing

Market Trends and Near Term Demand

This section identifies trends in the volume of residential sales in Pawtucket, including median prices. A sample of available apartment listing was also reviewed to identify trends in the rental market. Finally, projections for the near term demand for residential housing is presented.

4.1 Single Family/Condo Market

Over the 2000 to 2011 period there was an annual average of 412 single family units sold each year in Pawtucket, at an average price of $171,800 (see Table 18). The average selling price of single family homes more than doubled between 2000 and 2006, at which point the market entered a steep decline as part of the national economic recession. Despite this decline, the average selling price of a single-family home in Pawtucket in 2011 was about 22% higher than it was in 2000 but nearly 45% below the peak of 2006.



Table 18 Residential Sales Activity for Pawtucket, RI

2008

Single Family

# of Units 410 477 466 387 524 566 477 353 328 417 321 218 412

% Change 16.3% -2.3% -17.0% 35.4% 8.0% -15.7% -26.0% -7.1% 27.1% -23.0% -32.1%

Avg Price $107,000 $125,000 $150,000 $175,500 $214,500 $230,000 $234,000 $220,000 $180,000 $150,000 $146,000 $130,000 $171,833

% Change 16.8% 20.0% 17.0% 22.2% 7.2% 1.7% -6.0% -18.2% -16.7% -2.7% -11.0%

Condos

# of Units 53 46 50 48 80 136 99 84 45 67 51 66 69

% Change -13.2% 8.7% -4.0% 66.7% 70.0% -27.2% -15.2% -46.4% 48.9% -23.9% 29.4%

Avg Price $69,000 $90,000 $94,000 $128,500 $163,250 $202,000 $200,000 $181,975 $159,000 $143,000 $125,000 $114,500 $139,185

% Change 30.4% 4.4% 36.7% 27.0% 23.7% -1.0% -9.0% -12.6% -10.1% -12.6% -8.4%

Source : The Warren Group and RKG Associates, Inc.

2010 2011 AverageSales Activity 2007 20092004 2005 20062000 2001 2002 2003



There was an annual average of 69 condominium units sold over the same period, at an average price of $139,200. The average value of these units increased by nearly 200% between 2000 and 2005, but then decreased in value through 2011. However the average selling price of a Pawtucket condominium in 2011 was 66% higher than it was in 2000 (and only 31% below the 2005 peak), indicating these units have held their value better than single family units.

Figure 1 exhibits trends in the volume of sales of single-family homes and condominium units in the City between 1988 and 2012. Both single family and condominium home sales peaked in 2006, and no rebound was evident as of 2011.

4.2 Rental Market

A sample of available apartment offerings in Pawtucket was surveyed in February 2013 (Table 19), and at that time, the average asking monthly rent was slightly more than $1,000 for a one bedroom apartment and slightly more than $1,200 for a two bedroom apartment. The average size of available units identified in this sample was 800 SF for a one bedroom unit and 1,100 SF for a two bedroom unit. In 2010, approximately 90% of the study area renters paid less than $1,000/month.

Figure 1 Residential Sales Activity



Table 19 Apartments for Rent – Sample Inventory (02/2013)

4.3 Near Term Forecasted Residential Demand

Future demand for housing in the City of Pawtucket was estimated using DemographicNow’s 5-year household forecasts coupled with turnover rates in housing and other factors derived from US Census data to formulate an annual forecast of housing demand over the next five years. According to projections developed by DemographicsNow, the number of owner occupied housing units in the City was 12,012 in 2012, while renter units totaled 17,107. These 2012 estimates are compared with the 2017 projected households (11,914 for owner and 17,117 for renter) as previously presented in Table 9, to identify average turnover rates, as follows:

Owner - 11,914 owner households (2017) less 12,012 owner households (2012) = a decline of (98) households or approximately (20) annually. Approximately 5,450 new owners moved into Pawtucket between 2000 and 2010, accounting for 42% of owner households and indicating an average turnover rate of 4.2% for owner occupied units (refer to Table 13).

Renter - 17,117 renter households (2017) less 17,107 renter households (2012) = a growth of 10 households or two annually. An annual average of approximately 1,380 renters per year moved into Pawtucket rental units between 2000 and 2010, indicating an average turnover rate of 8.6% (refer to Table 17).

As shown in Table 20, there is projected to be a net total of 1,958 households forming in the City of Pawtucket each year over the next five years. This includes 503 owner households (from turnover) less the annual loss (20); for renters this includes 1,473 households from turnover and the estimated annual increase in new units at two units for a total of 1,475 units. As a result, annual net demand is projected to be 1,958 households with 483 (25%) as owner households and 1,475 (75%) as renter units, indicating a higher demand for rental properties over the next five years (currently Pawtucket is 45 % owner and 55% renter).

APARTMENTS Bath SF Ask Rent $ / SFSTUDIO average 1.0 470 $811 $1.73

1-BR average 1.0 802 $1,011 $1.26

2-BR average 1.6 1,134 $1,228 $1.08

3-BR average 1.3 1,000 $1,338 $1.34

Source : RKG Associates, Inc.



For both owner and renter housing the projected growth is predominately through turnover, or existing residents relocating into other units. Some of this relocation could be to newly built housing, but this could come at the expense of existing housing, noting the greatest increase in citywide housing, over the last decade, was vacancies which increased by 1,260 units (see Table 9). In other words, it is possible that housing construction over the last decade has led to an excess in vacancy, generally reflecting weak market indicators as the City has lost population since 2000 and is projected to continue to lose population in the near term.

In summary, given current vacancy rates and high turnover rates, the available housing supply in Pawtucket is nearly sufficient to accommodate projected household demand over the next five years.

Table 20 City of Pawtucket Annual Housing Demand for 2012 - 2017

4.3.1 Affordability of Owning and Renting

In order to quantify future demand for housing by different age and income levels, it is necessary to establish a range in home values and monthly rents that would be affordable at different income levels. Based on current financial assumptions (as footnoted in Table 21) a range in home values and monthly rents are estimated.

Median household (all households) income in 2017 is projected to be $46,000 in Pawtucket (see Table 1) suggesting that homes in the $150,000 to $200,000 value range would be affordable for local residents. Monthly rents in the range of $1,000± would be affordable for the local rental market. Higher priced housing may attract new residents from outside the City.

Over the last decade the selling price of single family housing in Pawtucket has averaged $171,800, with condominiums averaging $139,000. According to a February 2013 survey of available apartment rentals, average asking lease rates for a one-bedroom unit were $1,000± and for a two-bedroom unit were $1,200±. In other words, the market is performing to its potential (or has been responsive to local demand), at this time.

Owner Renter TotalFive-year growth in H'holds (99) 10 (89)

Annual AVG (20) 2 (18)

Annual Turnover 503 1,473 1,976

Total Households 483 1,475 1,958

New Construction [1] 5 15 20

[1] 1% of households for new construction

Source: DemographicsNow; US Census & RKG Associates, Inc.



Table 21 Affordability of Owning and Renting

4.3.2 Annual Demand for Units by Price Range and Conclusions

Table 22 provides projections of average annual demand for owner housing in Pawtucket over the next five years by age, income and home value. The greatest annual demand is anticipated to be for homes with values greater than $275,000. Demand for this higher priced housing, aimed at households with incomes exceeding $75,000 or more, is anticipated to make up over 75% of the annual demand for new owner-occupied units over the next five years. Individuals in this group are projected to largely be age 45 or older (70%) or age 65+ (20%), and given that the 2010 median income for Pawtucket owner households was about $59,200, many are likely to be moving in from outside the City. There is anticipated to be relatively little demand for owner occupied units with a value of less than $227,000, which is the estimated affordable criterion for the median income of existing owner householders. These units are expected to make up less than 10% of the annual demand for new owner occupied housing over the next five years8.

8 The negative demand indicated in the younger and less affluent age cohorts reflects an aging in place over the next five

years; out-migration; diminished growth (or replacement) of persons in that age cohort – all potentially resulting in potential excess vacancies.

Low Value High Value Income$20,000 $73,000 $75,000 $500 $20,000

$40,000 $147,000 $151,000 $1,000 $40,000

$60,000 $220,000 $227,000 $1,500 $60,000

$75,000 $275,000 $283,000 $1,875 $75,000

$100,000 $368,000 $378,000 $2,500 $100,000

$125,000 $460,000 $473,000 $3,125 $125,000[1] Ownership Assumptions Low High

Interest Rate 4.00% 3.25%Term 30 30

Down payment 5% 20%RE TAXES/1000 $23.06 $23.06Insurance /1000 $4.00 $4.00

Cost as % of Income 30% 30%

[2] Rental Cost factored at 30% of gross income

Source: RKG Associates, Inc.,

Gross IncomeOwnership [1] Monthly

Rent [2]



Table 22 City of Pawtucket Annual Owner Demand by Age, Income and Value (2012 – 2017)

Table 23 projects average annual renter demand for housing in Pawtucket over the next five years by age, income and monthly rent. Approximately 75% of demand would be anticipated to come from households earning less than $60,000, affording rents of up to $1,500 per month. The remaining 25% of demand is anticipated to come from households earning more than $60,000, and affording rents from $1,500 to over $2,500 per month.

Table 23 City of Pawtucket Annual Renter Demand by Age, Income and Rent (2012 – 2017)

Approximately 30% of annual renter demand is anticipated to come from households younger than age 35, and less than 50% of these households would be able to afford rents of $1,000 or higher. Another 40% of demand would come from renters aged 35 to 54; and, about than 50% of that demand comes from households that could afford rents of $1,000 or higher. These rents are in line with those identified during a February 2013 survey of available apartments in Pawtucket.

Income Range< 35 years

Age 35 to 44

Age 45 to 54

Age 55 to 64

Age 65 & up Total

% of Total Home Value Range

Less than $20,000 (9) (7) 1 7 16 7 1.4% $75,000 or less

$20,000 to $39,999 (12) (17) 5 11 10 (2) -0.3% $73,000 to $151,000

$40,000 to $59,999 6 (12) 7 12 29 41 8.5% $147,000 to $227,000

$60,000 to $74,999 3 15 16 29 11 74 15.2% $220,000 to $283,000

$75,000 to $99,999 19 24 29 35 16 122 25.3% $275,000 to $378,000

$100,000 & Up 30 37 70 48 57 241 49.9% $368,000 & up

Total 38 39 128 141 138 483 100%

% of Total 7.8% 8.0% 26.4% 29.2% 28.6% 100.0%

Source: Demographics NOW; US Census & RKG Associates, Inc.

Income Range< 35 years

Age 35 to 44

Age 45 to 54

Age 55 to 64

Age 65 & up Total

% of Total Gross Rent Range

Less than $20,000 96 81 57 60 122 416 28.2% $500 or less

$20,000 to $39,999 145 92 61 53 76 428 29.0% $500 to $1,000

$40,000 to $59,999 85 66 61 39 19 270 18.3% $1,000 to $1,500

$60,000 to $74,999 68 33 23 17 7 149 10.1% $1,500 to $1,875

$75,000 to $99,999 31 33 28 16 7 115 7.8% $1,875 to $2,500

$100,000 & Up 25 26 29 10 7 97 6.6% $2,500 & Up

Total 450 331 260 195 239 1,474 100%

% of Total 30.5% 22.5% 17.6% 13.2% 16.2% 100.0%

Source: Demographics NOW; US Census & RKG Associates, Inc.



Slightly less than 15% of total annual demand comes from renters earning $75,000 or more, and about 26% would be younger households (less than age 35), and likely the target for any proposed rental projects in Pawtucket. In absolute terms, total demand for renter households earning $75,000 or more, equals 210 to 220 units per year, any new project would have to capture 20% to 40% of this demand to ensure lease-up within a timely fashion, which would equate to 40 to 60 households per year. However, the estimated annual demand for new built renter housing is approximately 15 units per year (assuming 1% of demand). In the short term, either new renter housing reflects turnover from existing housing, potentially increasing vacancy at existing developments, or offers a set of amenities resulting in development reflecting 10% of demand or higher (or 150 units annually).

4.4 Summary of Current & Projected Residential Market

Over the last decade, the average selling price of a single family home in Pawtucket was about $172,000, and the average selling price of a condominium was about $139,000. The average selling price of single family homes and condominiums more than doubled between 2000 and 2006, at which point the market entered a steep decline as part of the national economic recession. No rebound (to pre-recession levels) in the local sales market was evident as of 2011.

Despite the decline in home values, the average selling price of a single-family home in Pawtucket in 2011 was about 20% higher than it was in 2000. The average selling price of a Pawtucket condominium in 2011 was 66% higher than it was in 2000, indicating these units have held their value better than single family units.

While the overall housing supply in the City has slightly increased over the last decade, the number of occupied units has declined by 3.4%. Combined with effects of the recent economic recession, the citywide vacancy rate in Pawtucket was about 10% in the City and slightly more than 12% in the study area in 2010. A slight recovery in renter occupied housing demand citywide is projected for 2017, while projections indicate a continued declined in the number of owner occupied units.

About 75% of the demand for owner occupied housing is anticipated to be for homes with values greater than $275,000, aimed at households making $75,000 or more. The overall median incomes for existing Pawtucket residents remaining relatively low, and median housing value increasing at a faster rate, sales will likely be targeted to newcomers to the City.

The rental market will continue to be dominated by lower income renters, yet recent demographic trends show that the rental market has been shifting towards the older “baby boom generation” which desire (and can afford) higher end units.

Given current vacancy rates and high turnover rates, the available housing supply in Pawtucket is nearly sufficient to accommodate projected household demand over the next five years. There is projected to be a net annual demand for 20 new (meaning newly built) housing units in Pawtucket over the next five years. This projection



accounts for annual turnover and vacancy rates, and indicates a need for about 5 new owner occupied units and 15 new rental units on the market each year. Phase II of the Union Wadding residential mill conversion will bring a large number of rental units onto the market to meet much of this near-term demand. The estimated turnover in housing dominates the citywide demand indicators, suggesting that while some of the turnover demand could also be met by new construction; such new construction could result in excess vacancies elsewhere throughout the City.





Commercial Market 5-1 Prepared by RKG and Anne Galbraith – October 2013

5Commercial Market

This section presents an overview of the office market in Pawtucket, focusing on a sampled inventory of available properties and estimates of future demand for space and supportable new development. Finally, the retail spending demand and estimated sales for Pawtucket is analyzed in order to estimate where “gaps” may exist and present opportunities for new development.

5.1 Market Conditions

As of 2011, there were a total of 1,492 business establishments operating in Pawtucket. The most common industry sectors include Health Care, Retail, Manufacturing Construction, Food Services and Professional Services. As presented in Table 24, there was a net loss of 93 businesses in Pawtucket over the four year period between 2007 and 2011. Much of this loss may be attributed to the national economic recession going on at this time. However, this 6% decline in business establishments was nearly twice as high as loss experienced statewide during the same time period. The loss of 93 businesses in Pawtucket represented nearly 7.8% of the Rhode Island loss of businesses. Most industry sectors in Pawtucket experienced a decline in businesses and in those sectors where growth occurred, it was nominal.



Table 24 Establishments by Industry Sector for Selected Years

Industry Sector and 2-Digit NAICSNumber of Establishments 2007 2009 2011 # Chge % Chge 2007 2009 2011 # Chge % Chge 11 - Forestry, Fish, Agriculture 0 0 0 0 NA 163 168 166 3 1.8%

21 - Mining 0 0 0 0 NA 23 20 20 (3) -13.0%

22 - Utilities 3 4 3 0 0.0% 32 32 32 0 0.0%

23 - Construction 167 153 133 (34) -20.4% 4,325 4,021 3,720 (605) -14.0%

31 - Manufacturing 174 161 139 (35) -20.1% 2,028 1,873 1,733 (295) -14.5%

42 - Wholesaled Trade 90 80 79 (11) -12.2% 3,059 3,025 2,966 (93) -3.0%

44 - Retail Trade 185 177 168 (17) -9.2% 4,039 3,872 3,814 (225) -5.6%

48 - Transportation and Warehousing 35 39 38 3 8.6% 757 724 694 (63) -8.3%

51 - Information 26 25 20 (6) -23.1% 668 746 740 72 10.8%

52 - Finance and Insurance 57 60 55 (2) -3.5% 1,779 1,645 1,524 (255) -14.3%

53 - Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 53 53 50 (3) -5.7% 1,244 1,143 1,064 (180) -14.5%

54 - Professional and Technical Services 127 129 127 0 0.0% 4,069 4,154 4,167 98 2.4%

55 - Management of Companies and Enterprises 13 9 11 (2) -15.4% 226 237 246 20 8.8%

56 - Administrative and Waste Services 99 94 94 (5) -5.1% 2,379 2,386 2,408 29 1.2%

61 - Educational Services 22 23 26 4 18.2% 484 525 537 53 11.0%

62 - Health Care and Social Assistance 187 182 189 2 1.1% 3,022 3,056 3,111 89 2.9%

71 - Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 15 20 19 4 26.7% 560 571 546 (14) -2.5%

72 - Accommodation and Food Services 139 134 137 (2) -1.4% 2,870 2,822 2,907 37 1.3%

81 - Other Services, Ex. Public Admin 199 204 210 11 5.5% 3,519 3,644 3,771 252 7.2%

99 - Unclassified 1 1 2 1 100.0% 184 22 67 (117) -63.6%

Total Establishments all Sectors 1,585 1,548 1,492 (93) -5.9% 35,422 34,677 34,225 (1,197) -3.4%

Total Employment all Sectors 24,155 21,932 21,651 (2,504) -10.4% 417,728 387,824 389,240 (28,488) -6.8%

Average Wage all Sectors $37,533 $39,719 $41,242 $3,709 9.9% $39,827 $41,320 $43,526 $3,700 9.3%

Source : US County Business Patterns (BEA) and RKG Associates, Inc.




5.1.1 Available Commercial Space

A sampling of available commercial properties, as of February 2013, in Pawtucket, is presented in Table 25. This is not a complete inventory of properties, but a sampling intended to represent the character and size of the type of commercial space on the market today. There is a mix of Class A, B and C space9 available. There is approximately 115,000 SF available for sale with an average asking price of $59/SF. The properties available for sale averaged a little less than 9,600 SF on a 0.44 acre lot size. Additionally there is nearly 77,400 SF available for lease with an average asking lease rate of $12.32 per SF. The available leased space ranges from small condo office at 300 SF to as much as 24,000 SF, averaging 3,400 SF.

Table 25 City of Pawtucket – Sample of Available Commercial Space (02/2013)

9 Class A office buildings tend to have higher than average rents compared to the surrounding area, in buildings with better accessibility and systems. Class B buildings have average rents and adequate systems. Class C buildings have basic functionality, with rents tending below market rate.

FOR SALE

150 Main St A 0.62 17,020 Vacant $1,100,000 $64.63

750 East Ave A 75% 0.23 7,840 Avail $499,000 $63.65

82 Pond St B 0.29 4,576 Vacant $375,000 $81.95

211 Armistice Blvd B 50% 1.13 8,000 Avail $725,000 $90.63

255-261 Main St 90% 0.09 21,340 Avail $750,000 $35.15

333 School St B 1.15 6,000 Vacant $630,000 $105.00

88 Armistice Blvd C 0.38 2,543 Vacant $205,000 $80.61

255 Main St B 80% 0.09 21,500 Avail $400,000 $18.60

90 & 100 Lafayette St C 90% 0.26 10,812 Avail $679,000 $62.80

26-28 Summer St B 0.10 3,570 Vacant $225,000 $63.03

193 Beverage Hill Ave A 0.33 4,250 Vacant $449,000 $105.65

175-198 Beverage Hill Ave A 0.56 7,550 Vacant $748,000 $99.07

Total or Average 49% 0.44 115,001 $6,785,000 $59.00FOR LEASE

750 East Ave A 0.28 7,480 Avail 2,000 $7.80 Full Svce

A Avail 5,500 $16.00 Mod Gross

211 Armistice Blvd B 50% 1.20 8,000 Avail 4,000 $10.00 NNN

Avail 2,500 $8.40 Mod Gross

Avail 1,100 $10.91 Mod Gross

8 Summer St 98% 50,000 Avail 1,200 $12.00 Mod Gross

193 Beverage Hill Rd A 0.33 4,250 Avail 4,250 $12.00 NNN

Source : RKG Associates, Inc. and LoopNet Services

Total Bldg SF

Available SF

Pawtucket Address

Building Class Leased

Lot in Acres Current Status

Asking Price or Lease

$ / SF or Terms



5.2 Projected Supportable Commercial Development

This section provides projections of the amount of commercial development that could reasonably be supported in the City over the next several years or, more specifically, the amount of new commercial square footage that could be absorbed each year through 2020. These projections were made by translating RI Department of Labor & Training employment projections to anticipated square footage using standard industry averages by NAICS code. Retail and consumer spending is also evaluated to identify the dollars spent by local residents at retail locations outside the City, and to project the amount of new retail space that may reasonably be expected to absorb some of this leakage.

5.2.1 Employment Projections

The Rhode Island Department of Labor and Training developed employment projections, by major industry sector, for 2020, as presented in Table 26. Rhode Island private sector employment in 2020 is projected at 438,050 representing a 12.5% increase over 2011. Although the City of Pawtucket lost employment over the last decade at a rate faster than the State, it is assumed that the ratio of Pawtucket employment to State employment would remain constant over through 2020 (at 5.7% using 2007, 2009 and 2011 as benchmark years). This would result in 24,300 employees in Pawtucket in 2020, accounting for an increase of nearly 3,100. As projected, the greatest employment growth would occur in the Health Care sector. Manufacturing would recover some of the losses experienced over the last decade, and Retail, Accommodation/Food Services and various professional services are also anticipated to see some growth.



Table 26 - Employment Projections by NAICS Sector for 2020

Industry Sector and 2‐Digit NAICSNumber of Employees

11 ‐ Forestry, Fish, Agriculture 704 NA NA NA

21 ‐ Mining 189 NA NA NA

22 ‐ Utilities 952 NA NA NA

23 ‐ Construction 19,476 997 56 28

31 ‐ Manufacturing 41,161 4,044 359 179

42 ‐ Wholesaled Trade 18,098 552 14 7

44 ‐ Retail Trade 52,413 1,797 402 201

48 ‐ Transportation and Warehousing 10,704 525 52 26

51 ‐ Information 11,200 187 77 38

52 ‐ Finance and Insurance 24,562 845 107 53

53 ‐ Real Estate and Rental and Leasin 6,102 235 38 19

54 ‐ Professional and Technical Service 25,515 761 117 59

55 ‐ Management of Companies and E 11,543 1,871 153 77

56 ‐ Administrative and Waste Services 27,075 2,231 296 148

61 ‐ Educational Services 21,317 NA NA NA

62 ‐ Health Care and Social Assistance 90,868 6,722 1,049 525

71 ‐ Arts, Entertainment, and Recreatio 8,687 356 48 24

72 ‐ Accommodation and Food Services 48,396 1,783 243 121

81 ‐ Other Services, Ex. Public Admin 19,086 1,399 87 43

99 ‐ Unclassified NA NA NA NA

TOTAL 438,047 24,305 3,098 1,549


Pawtucket Net Change

Pawtucket Est. New w/ SF Needs

Rhode Island Projected 2020

Pawtucket Projected 2020



5.2.2 Potential Supportable Development

The employment projections made by RI DLT, by industry sector, are converted to potential demand estimates for additional office and building space and shown in Table 20. This methodology utilizes industry standard estimates of SF per employee and converts the projected growth in employment into space (SF) demands. Realistically, not all of the projected growth in employment would result in demand for new or additional space, as some demand could be met by the existing vacancies in the market or occur at existing businesses. It is assumed that one-half of this new employment would be absorbed into existing commercial vacancies in Pawtucket and the remainder could require new commercial development.



Table 27 presents a potential range of the estimated capture for new (to be built) office and commercial development in all of Pawtucket, reflecting an increase in employment by 2020 (excluding the government sector). The total estimated demand for additional SF of commercial space throughout Pawtucket is estimated to be slightly more 787,400 SF, primarily health care related (almost 47%).

It is likely that much of the growth in Health Care employment would occur around the Memorial Hospital area, outside of downtown and nearer to existing health and medical providers. Manufacturing growth could be well suited to utilize some of the inventory of industrial mill space surrounding the station site. Retail and Accommodation/Food Services would be well suited to be located in the downtown area or around the potential rail station site. Other professional services10 could also be well suited for the rehabilitation or development of commercial office space in the downtown area. Two important considerations with respect to any such potential commercial development around a potential Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station include: (1) this employment analysis is stretched over an 8-year time period and would result in incremental development annually; and, (2) potential tenants would likely include small businesses, entrepreneurs, and start-ups, requiring flexible lease rates that may be insufficient to warrant new construction costs.

10 As an example, NAICS code 56 includes office administration and support, temporary help services, travel agencies, landscapers as well as trash/waste and remediation services.



Industrial/Flex

Mining 500 NA NA NA NA

Construction 500 56 28 13,892 1,737

Manufacturing 500 359 179 89,730 11,216

Wholesale Trade 1,000 14 7 6,869 859

Transportation and Warehousing 1,500 52 26 38,996 4,874

Subtotal NA 480 240 149,487 18,686

Office/Flex/Institutional

Information 200 77 38 7,667 958

Finance and Insurance 200 107 53 10,674 1,334

Real Estate 200 38 19 3,798 475

Professional and Technical 200 117 59 11,721 1,465

Management 200 153 77 15,305 1,913

Administration and Waste Services 450 296 148 66,660 8,332

Educational Service 700 NA NA NA NA

Health Care and Social Assistance 700 1,049 525 367,281 45,910

Subtotal NA 1,837 919 483,106 60,388

Commercial

Arts and Entertainment 500 48 24 12,052 1,506

Accommodations and Food Services 500 243 121 60,703 7,588

Other excluding Public Administration 500 87 43 21,750 2,719

Retail Services 300 402 201 60,305 7,538

Subtotal NA 780 390 154,809 19,351

TOTAL 3,098 1,549 787,402 98,425


Industries and Demand Indicators ‐ Selected Sectors

Average SF per Employee

Projected 2020 NEW Pawtucket Employment

Potential New SF

Annual Absorption

Estimate Requiring NEW SF

Table 27 Potential Supportable Development by NAICS Sector for 2020



5.3 Retail and Consumer Demand

This section presents an analysis of the estimated retail sales and consumer demand in the City of Pawtucket for 2012, specifically by lines of merchandise and/or store types. From these supply and demand indicators, an estimate of supportable new retail is developed, by selected merchandise lines.

5.3.1 Selected Consumer Demand and Spending

In 2012, total consumer spending demand among the City of Pawtucket households amounted to $680.6 million for selected retail goods and services. The estimated citywide sales are $364.1 million indicating a gap or sales leakage of $316.5 million (refer to Table 28).



Table 28 Consumer Retail Demand and Sales

Residential Retail Analysis - 2012Comparative HH Demand & Sales Demand Sales Export/Import

Major Merchandise Line $680,598,986 $364,062,976 $316,536,010

Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores-448 $48,455,324 $9,584,030 $38,871,294

Men's Clothing Stores-44811 $2,088,543 $747,917 $1,340,626

Women's Clothing Stores-44812 $8,578,995 $1,059,132 $7,519,863

Children's, Infants Clothing Stores-44813 $2,204,970 $200,407 $2,004,563

Family Clothing Stores-44814 $19,610,303 $2,452,357 $17,157,946

Clothing Accessories Stores-44815 $1,543,150 $2,714,271 ($1,171,121)

Other Clothing Stores-44819 $3,444,702 $566,088 $2,878,614

Shoe Stores-4482 $6,193,329 $1,134,000 $5,059,329

Jewelry Stores-44831 $4,369,555 $709,858 $3,659,697

Luggage and Leather Goods Stores-44832 $421,777 $0 $421,777

Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, Music Stores-451 $18,998,845 $3,641,328 $15,357,517

Sporting Goods Stores-45111 $7,910,237 $2,116,712 $5,793,525

Hobby, Toys and Games Stores-45112 $4,657,095 $110,919 $4,546,176

Sew/Needlework/Piece Goods Stores-45113 $951,863 $362,841 $589,022

Musical Instrument and Supplies Stores-45114 $1,364,494 $447,022 $917,472

Book Stores-451211 $2,979,910 $432,055 $2,547,855

News Dealers and Newsstands-451212 $334,179 $2,878 $331,301

Prerecorded Tapes, CDs, Record Stores-45122 $801,067 $168,901 $632,166

General Merchandise Stores-452 $135,641,578 $10,110,976 $125,530,602

Department Stores Excl Leased Depts-4521 $53,970,959 $4,811,199 $49,159,760

All Other General Merchandise Stores-45299 $81,670,619 $5,299,777 $76,370,842

Miscellaneous Store Retailers-453 $26,697,358 $7,046,739 $19,650,619

Florists-4531 $1,132,483 $972,607 $159,876

Office Supplies and Stationery Stores-45321 $4,372,059 $0 $4,372,059

Gift, Novelty and Souvenir Stores-45322 $3,785,517 $1,676,645 $2,108,872

Used Merchandise Stores-4533 $2,536,695 $1,307,322 $1,229,373

Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers-4539 $14,870,604 $3,090,165 $11,780,439

Foodservice and Drinking Places-722 $108,701,715 $60,381,237 $48,320,478

Full-Service Restaurants-7221 $50,231,168 $21,970,018 $28,261,150

Limited-Service Eating Places-7222 $44,560,972 $32,038,288 $12,522,684

Special Foodservices-7223 $8,608,781 $4,609,929 $3,998,852

Drinking Places -Alcoholic Beverages-7224 $5,300,794 $1,763,002 $3,537,792

Source : Claritas and RKG Associates, Inc.

City of Pawtucket, RI



5.3.2 Estimated Supportable Retail Demand

All markets experience some degree of sales leakage. The reasons for sales leakage are many and include, but are not necessarily limited to, a lack of local stores, perceived competitive advantages (price or selection) of shopping elsewhere, commuters shopping on their way to/from work and Internet or catalogue sales. The potential recapture of a portion of sales leakage could encourage new local retail development. Similarly, the natural growth in consumer spending demand could also support additional retail development, as well as benefit existing stores and retailers. In Table 29 the data indicates an opportunity for an additional 52,500 SF to 157,500 SF. This estimate is based on assumptions of a % to 15% recapture of sales leakage and not anticipated employment growth as presented earlier, indicating 60,300 SF which is nonetheless within this range. Also, there is an opportunity for 5,500 SF to 16,400 SF of restaurants and taverns, as well as 4,000 SF to 10,200 SF of smaller, niche retail space.



Table 29 - Estimated Supportable Retail through Recaptured Sales Leakage

Residential Retail Analysis - 2012Comparative HH Demand & Sales 5.0% 15.0%

Major Merchandise Line 52,503 157,509

Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores-448 6,953 20,858Men's Clothing Stores-44811 213 638Women's Clothing Stores-44812 1,253 3,760Children's, Infants Clothing Stores-44813 299 898Family Clothing Stores-44814 3,651 10,952Clothing Accessories Stores-44815

Other Clothing Stores-44819 543 1,629Shoe Stores-4482 767 2,300Jewelry Stores-44831 174 523Luggage and Leather Goods Stores-44832 53 158Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, Music Stores-451 3,391 10,173Sporting Goods Stores-45111 1,207 3,621Hobby, Toys and Games Stores-45112 1,196 3,589Sew/Needlework/Piece Goods Stores-45113 218 654Musical Instrument and Supplies Stores-45114 209 626Book Stores-451211 418 1,253News Dealers and Newsstands-451212 30 91Prerecorded Tapes, CDs, Record Stores-45122 113 339General Merchandise Stores-452 15,188 45,563Department Stores Excl Leased Depts-4521 4,867 14,602All Other General Merchandise Stores-45299 10,320 30,961Miscellaneous Store Retailers-453 4,167 12,500Florists-4531 27 80Office Supplies and Stationery Stores-45321 795 2,385Gift, Novelty and Souvenir Stores-45322 659 1,977Used Merchandise Stores-4533 232 696Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers-4539 2,454 7,363Foodservice and Drinking Places-722 5,475 16,425Full-Service Restaurants-7221 3,248 9,745Limited-Service Eating Places-7222 1,160 3,479Special Foodservices-7223 625 1,874Drinking Places -Alcoholic Beverages-7224 442 1,327Source : Claritas and RKG Associates, Inc.

Retail @ Leakage Capture





Conclusions 6-1 Prepared by RKG and Anne Galbraith – October 2013

6Conclusions

Based on the research and findings in this analysis, the following indicates development potential and considerations for the City of Pawtucket, reflecting demand/supply characteristics and market trends. The potential development of a Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station in the City could serve as a development or locational amenity for future development, but it is unlikely that it would directly serve as the primary catalyst. Continued development in the downtown area of Pawtucket is more likely to come about as a result of changing demographics and market conditions rather than as a response to a Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station. However, the existence of a Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station is likely to accelerate redevelopment in the study area.

6.1 Residential

Over the next five years, the annual demand for housing in Pawtucket is estimated to be 1,960 households, including 480 owner households and 1,480 renter households. This represents a 25% owner and 75% renter split, indicating higher demand for rental properties over the next five years (currently Pawtucket is 45% owner and 55% renter). Potential new residents to Pawtucket will likely occupy newly constructed housing units, move into currently vacant units or will replace other households that move to different locations in or out of the City.

Of the total owner demand (480 units) approximately 75% comes from households earning $75,000 or more and able to afford housing of $275,000 or more. Of the total renter demand (1,480 units) approximately 75% originates from households earning less than $60,000, which in turn could afford rents of up to $1,500 per month. Slightly less than 15% of total annual demand comes from renters earning $75,000 or more. In absolute terms, total demand for renter households earning $75,000 or more equals 210 to 220 units per year.


Conclusions 6-2 Prepared by RKG and Anne Galbraith – October 2013

6.2 Office

Estimated citywide demand for additional office and industrial space is 787,000 SF by 2020; however, nearly 368,000 SF is the estimated demand for medical space and almost 150,000 SF for industrial uses. Demand for more general office space, as might locate in smaller buildings and developments, is for 115,000 SF, about what is currently being marketed as for sale. Two important considerations with respect to any such potential commercial development around a Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station include:

this employment analysis is stretched over a ten-year time period and would result in incremental development and absorption on an annual basis; and,

potential tenants would likely include small businesses, entrepreneurs, and start-ups requiring flexible lease rates and terms that may be insufficient to warrant new construction costs.

This does not reflect the potential for an end-user or owner-occupant that might construct in the downtown and study area.

6.3 Retail

The potential recapture of a portion of retail sales leakage could encourage new local retail development. Similarly, the natural growth in consumer spending demand could also support additional retail development, as well as be a benefit to existing stores and retailers. This analysis estimates that there is an opportunity for an additional 52,500 SF (5% recapture of sales leakage) to 157,500 SF (15% recapture) of retail space. A separate report11 concluded that there was potential for 208,000 SF of supportable retail within a 5 to 10-minute drive of downtown Pawtucket.

11 Refer to Pawtucket-Central Falls Riverfront Corridor Market Analysis, prepared by FXM Associates with Byrne

McKinney Associates, September 2012.


Recommendations 7-1 Prepared by RKG and Anne Galbraith – October 2013

7Recommendations

The following presents recommendations for marketing, zoning, financing and other issues relative to the long-term redevelopment opportunities for lands proximate to the potential Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station that might be implemented by the City or its designated representative(s).

7.1 Marketing

Much of the land near the potential Pawtucket Commuter Rail Station consists of smaller parcels, has numerous owners and represents a variety of existing uses and development. Without direct site control, i.e., ownership of these parcels, the City’s capacity to encourage continued development is more of a partnership role rather than a primary role. Part of this partnership with the private sector to encourage development could include several marketing efforts and to that end the following actions are recommended.

Engage the development community in station area planning and transit-supportive development.

Continue to identify and maintain an inventory of vacant, underutilized and foreclosure properties as possible redevelopment or assemblage sites (please refer to Error! Reference source not found.). As part of any ongoing redevelopment effort, it is important to know what is available and what may be the desires/intent of current owner(s).

Similarly, continue to implement action items from the 2011 Comprehensive Community Plan (update), with respect to identifying, encouraging and facilitating land assemblage (of targeted parcels) for assemblage and/or building redevelopment.



Figure 2 – Foreclosure and Vacant/Underutilized Properties in Study Area

Foster small-scale development and utilization of in-fill parcels towards the downtown and the waterfront as a “location” priority. Reuse and redevelopment of larger parcels, such as adjacent mill/industrial parcels to the north and western portions of the area are considered to be longer-term and more problematic.

Institute an ongoing promotional effort to share the market findings of this analysis (and any future studies) with area banks and lending institutions, as well as real estate brokers and developers. This ongoing communication may assist in both fostering lending programs within the study area and the City, and in providing capital for existing and potential new businesses.



At present, there may be limited potential in attracting new, outside investment into the study area without first encouraging internal reinvestment. As such, explore with property owners the redevelopment potential of specific sites, for residential and/or mixed-use properties.

Enhance the transit-oriented character of the area by implementing actions to improve access and broaden the catchment area of the station (e.g. improved pedestrian access, traffic mitigation, facilities for persons with disabilities, etc.)

The overall marketing of vacant commercial properties in the study area is somewhat limited as commercial brokers and developers have little initiative to market properties where rents are low, tenant prospects are low and the consumer market is perceived as insular. As a result, property owners may tend to market their properties themselves without any broad outreach beyond the local (almost drive-by traffic) investment community. Consider developing a format with property owners and brokers to “market the market” and not merely “market the property”.

Conduct outreach and work pro-actively with the local community to promote transit-supportive planning and station area development.

7.2 Zoning

There is a broad mix of property/land uses in the study area. As shown in Figure 3, the area surrounding the train station is predominately zoned for industrial use (MB-Manufacturing Built-Up or MO-Manufacturing Open). Exceptions include the Union Wadding complex, which was recently reclassified as CD-Commercial Downtown, and other properties zoned CG-Commercial General along Dexter Street. Properties along Pine and Conant streets fall within the Mill Building Reuse Overlay District, specifically allowing for mixed use development.

As such, zoning in the study area appears to be more reactive (at least historically) and less proactive. While it is true that zoning may be a municipal tool to limit or restrict development, it may also be a tool to encourage development. In order to encourage and stimulate private sector real estate investment in the study area, the following is offered:

To the extent possible, consider a streamlining of the site plan and approval process, making City Hall a one-stop location for potential developers, particularly those interested in taking on projects in the study area.

Continue to make zoning changes to support increased transit supportive development (or walkable, mixed-use development) in the station area. Possible considerations include:

- Extending the “allowances” offered in the Mill Building Reuse District to a broader geography and potentially other building types.



- Reclassifying additional industrial zoned areas for commercial/retail use.

- Promoting the development of housing or other land uses with high trip generation rates.

Consider regulatory and financial incentives to enhance the transit-oriented character of the area, including reduced parking allowances.

Adopt zoning codes that support and encourage affordable housing development in the area.

Figure 3 – Existing Zoning in Study Area

Zoning Districts

MB Manufacturing Built Up

MO Manufacturing Open

CD Commercial Downtown

CG Commercial General

CL Commerical Limited

RM Residential Multi-Family

RE Residential Elevator

RD3 Riverfront Mixed Use

PC Public Cemetery



7.3 Financing

While the prevailing economic conditions continue to place fiscal restraints on many existing and potential projects, nonetheless the success of any redevelopment or re-positioning of properties, as part of the City’s comprehensive plan update, and in conjunction with desired re-investment in the study area, is the ability to have projects adequately financed, from both the public and private sectors, and as such the following actions are offered for considered:

Establish a challenge grant program or other capital improvement program, possibly with CDBG funds and other public contributions, to create and sustain a financial resource for appropriate redevelopment efforts. This could include a loan pool of $250,000, to be matched by the private sector investor or property owner and capped at $25,000 per project. In other words, if a property owner desires to expand their building, the challenge grant will match up to $25,000 of investment. Eligible improvements should be consistent with the overall plan and zoning guidelines, and supportive of transit-oriented development.

Consider initiating a two to three year abatement of the incremental property tax increase realized through a re-investment in a property, thereby potentially allowing a property owner some time to realize a recapturing of their investment before being taxed on it.

7.4 Affordable Housing Initiatives

Federal interest in the project will be enhanced if it can be demonstrated that the City has implement protections to ensure housing in the station area will continue to be available to low and moderate income households when rail service is introduced. The following actions may be considered to ensure a mix of housing options for existing and future residents, and to help avoid gentrification over time:

Develop plans and policies to maintain and/or increase the supply of legally binding affordability restricted housing12 and market-rate affordable housing in the area. These plans and policies should address the needs of very-low income households.

Work with local housing developers to preserve and increase affordable housing in the area, to secure priority development sites and/or to maintain affordability levels in existing housing units.

12 A legally binding affordability restriction is a lien, deed of trust or other legal instrument that restricts occupancy for a

defined period of time to households below specific income thresholds – typically 60% of area median income.



Identify and secure financing commitments, funding sources, or financial incentives to support affordable housing (or land) acquisition, development and/or preservation.

Documents

Pawtucket and Central Falls TOD Vision Plan · 2016-12-20 · RKG met with representatives of the Pawtucke t Department of Planning and Redevelopment to discuss recent and/or pending