Upload
others
View
3
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
© 2016 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively “STR”) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.
Past to Present: A Visualization of North Carolina’s Hotel Performance Data
Melissa Holm
Business Development Executive, Hotels
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
About STR
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Total U.S. Performance
North Carolina Hotel Industry Overview
Performance by Market
Group & Transient Segmentation
Hotel Pipeline & U.S. Forecast
Agenda
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Total U.S. Performance
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
JULY 2016
RevPAR +2.5%
ADR +3.6%
117 Million Room Nights Sold (most rooms sold ever in a single month)
*Group RevPAR +2.5%
*Transient RevPAR +1.0%
*Luxury & Upper Upscale Classes Only
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Total U.S. – Key Statistics July 2016 YTD
% Change
Room Supply 1.06B +1.5%
Room Demand 707M +1.4%
Occupancy 66.4% -0.1%
ADR $123.93 +3.2%
RevPAR $82.32 +3.0%
Room Revenue $87.6B +4.6%
Continued Growth for First Half of 2016
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
12 Month Moving Average Paints a Similar Picture
+1.4% +1.7%
+0.3%
+3.4% +3.7%
+5.2%
Supply Demand Occupancy ADR RevPAR Revenue
Total U.S. – KPIs % Change 12 MMA ending July 2016
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Total U.S. – Room Supply / Demand % Change 12 MMA January 1989 to July 2016
4.0%
2.9%
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
Supply % Change Demand % Change
1.7%
7.8%
-7.1%
Demand Growth Slows as Supply Growth Increases to 1.4%
1.4%
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Now 2 Million More Rooms Available Every Month
1.7
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.3
2.2 2.1
2.3 2.2
2.3 2.3
2.4
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
August September October November December January February March April May June July
Total U.S. – Supply Change (millions of room nights) by Month August 2015 to July 2016
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
-12%
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
Hu
nd
red
s
Occ % Chg ADR % Chg
-6.7
-4.5
7.5
-9.7
-8.8
6.3
0.3
3.4
Total U.S. – Occupancy/ADR % Change 12 MMA January 1989 to July 2016
Occupancy Growth Rapidly Approaching 0%
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Declining Occupancies and Rising ADRs Are Not Unprecedented
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Occ % Change ADR % Change
24 Months
42 Months
Total U.S. – Occupancy/ADR % Change 12 MMA January 1990 to December 2001
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
North Carolina Performance
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
1,744 Hotels
150,960 Rooms
78% Sample
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
$98.45 ADR
+3.8%
$63.94 RevPAR
+5.7%
65% Occupancy
+1.8%
North Carolina – July 2016 YTD
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
What’s Driving Growth?
+1.6%
+3.2%
+1.6%
+4.2%
+5.9%
+7.5%
Supply Demand Occupancy ADR RevPAR Revenue
North Carolina – KPIs % Change 12 MMA ending July 2016
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
North Carolina’s Demand Growth Holding Steady at 3.2%
2.7%
1.6%
-9.7%
9.6%
3.2%
-12%
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
Hu
nd
red
s
Supply % Change Demand % Change
North Carolina – Room Supply / Demand % Change 12 MMA January 1989 to July 2016
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
ADR & Occupancy Growth Relatively Flat This Year
-11.8%
1.9%
8.1%
-5.6%
4.3%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
Hu
nd
red
s
Occupancy % Change ADR % Change
North Carolina – Occupancy/ADR % Change 12 MMA January 1989 to July 2016
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
State ADR has Grown 15% Since Prior Peak in 2008
63.5% $63.01
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
Occupancy (%) ADR ($)
$98.03
$84.92
North Carolina – Occupancy/ADR 12 MMA January 2000 to July 2016
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
North Carolina – Monthly Occupancy January 2012 – July 2016
Continual Occupancy Increases Each Year
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
$ 104.33
$101.53 $ 102.15
$101.32 $103.45
$70
$75
$80
$85
$90
$95
$100
$105
$110
Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
North Carolina – Monthly ADR January 2012 to July 2016
ADR Surpasses $100 for the Fourth Consecutive Month
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
State RevPAR follows U.S. Trend with Notable Deviations in Recent Years
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
Hu
nd
red
s
US RevPAR North Carolina RevPAR
U.S. & North Carolina – RevPAR % Change January 2000 to July 2016
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Comparison of Class Segments
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Luxury
Fairmont, Four Seasons, Ritz Carlton, JW Marriott, St. Regis, InterContinental
Upper Upscale
Hilton, Hyatt, Marriott, Kimpton, Omni, Sheraton, Westin, Wyndham
Upscale
Radisson, Hilton Garden Inn, Residence Inn, Springhill Suites, Homewood Suites, Courtyard, Best Western Premier, Crowne Plaza
Upper Midscale
Fairfield Inn, Holiday Inn, Clarion, Hampton Inn, Best Western Plus, Drury Inn
Midscale
AmericInn, Candlewood Suites, Quality Inn, Ramada, La Quinta
Economy
Extended Stay America, Red Roof Inn, Days Inn, Microtel, Super 8
2016 STR Chain Scales
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
47% of North Carolina’s Hotels are Midscale & Economy
5%
15%
17%
21%
13%
29%
United States
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
2% 9%
17%
25% 15%
32%
North Carolina
U.S. & North Carolina – Room Counts by Class
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Demand Wavers for Upper Upscale Properties
3.2
4.0
8.0
1.0
-0.4 -0.3
3.8
2.3
8.7
4.0
2.1 1.4
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
Supply Demand
North Carolina – Supply/Demand % Change by Class July 2016 YTD
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Negative Occupancy Growth for Upper Upscale Hotels
64.0 68.4
72.8 67.5
58.4 57.7 64.4
67.3 73.3
69.4
59.9 58.7
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
2015 2016
+0.6% -1.6% +0.7% +1.7% +2.6% +2.9%
North Carolina – Occupancy & Occupancy % Change by Class July 2016 YTD
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
RevPAR Still Trending Upwards for All Classes
$139
$103
$89
$67
$45
$32
$141
$105
$92
$72
$48
$33
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
2015 2016
+1.5% +3.5% +2.1% +6.3% +5.9% +5.9%
North Carolina – RevPAR & RevPAR % Change by Class July 2016 YTD
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Performance by Market
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Seasonal Markets see a Boost in Occupancy
69.1%
67.2%
58.0%
66.1%
60.4%
74.0%
71.7%
Wilmington, NC
Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill, NC
Greensboro/Winston Salem, NC
Fayetteville, NC
Coastal Carolina
Charlotte, NC-SC
Asheville, NC +1.7%
+6.1%
-1.4%
+3.1%
-2.1%
+4.7%
+3.0%
North Carolina Markets – Occupancy & Occupancy % Change July 2016 YTD
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Asheville Achieves Highest State ADR and ADR Growth
$104.46
$100.69
$88.53
$73.62
$121.60
$105.66
$135.80
Wilmington, NC
Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill, NC
Greensboro/Winston Salem, NC
Fayetteville, NC
Coastal Carolina
Charlotte, NC-SC
Asheville, NC +6.8%
+1.6%
+5.1%
+0.2%
+0.5%
-2.2%
+5.0%
North Carolina Markets – ADR & ADR % Change July 2016 YTD
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Fayetteville Not Able to Make Up For Occupancy Decline
$72.16
$67.71
$57.37
$48.66
$73.50
$78.18
$97.41
Wilmington, NC
Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill, NC
Greensboro/Winston Salem, NC
Fayetteville, NC
Coastal Carolina
Charlotte, NC-SC
Asheville, NC +8.6%
+6.4%
+2.8%
+3.3%
-0.9%
+3.8%
+8.1%
North Carolina Markets – RevPAR & RevPAR % Change July 2016 YTD
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Asheville & Charlotte Competitive with Regional Markets
13.5%
Myrtle Beach
Norfolk/Virginia Beach
Louisville
Nashville
Savannah
Columbia
Charleston
Wilmington
Richmond/Petersburg
Charlotte
Asheville
0
2
4
6
8
-4 -2 0 2 4 6
AD
R %
Ch
ange
Knoxville/Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge
Occupancy % Change
Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill
Greensboro/Winston Salem
July 2016 YTD
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Room Rates Driving RevPAR in Raleigh
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Occupancy ADR RevPAR
Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill – RevPAR % Change by Contribution of Occupancy/ADR % Change August 2015 – July 2015
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
$66.8M
+0.3%
30
40
50
60
70
Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Mill
ion
s
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill – Monthly Revenue January 2012 – July 2016
Raleigh is Experiencing Record Monthly Revenues Despite Decreases in Occupancy
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Group & Transient Segmentation
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
GROUP TRANSIENT
3.1% 0.6%
North Carolina – Demand % Change, by Segment July 2016 YTD *Luxury & Upper Upscale Classes Only
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
North Carolina – Monthly Transient Demand January 2015 to July 2016 *Luxury & Upper Upscale Classes Only
216,627
227,086
160
180
200
220
240
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Th
ou
san
ds
2015 2016
Transient Demand Pacing Ahead YOY
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
North Carolina – Monthly Group Demand January 2015 to July 2016 *Luxury & Upper Upscale Classes Only
+3.8%
+2.4% +1.8%
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Th
ou
san
ds
2015 2016
Group Demand Outpaces 2015 During Summer Months
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Transient Demand Growing Much Faster than Group
North Carolina – Demand by Segment 12 MMA January 2005 – July 2016 *Luxury & Upper Upscale Classes Only
1,402,523
1,482,928
1,899,013
2,484,266
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Mill
ion
s
Group Transient
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Group Rooms Yet to Recover Since Prior Peak in 2007
80.1%
99.7%
95.9%
130.8%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Group Transient
Transient Peak March 2007
North Carolina – Demand by Segment Indexed by Month 12 MMA March 2007 – July 2016 *Luxury & Upper Upscale Classes Only
Group Peak October 2007
Transient Recovery
March 2010
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Transient and Group Mix Continues to Widen
7% 20% 24%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Group Mix Trans Mix
North Carolina – Transient & Group Mix 12 MMA March 2007 – July 2016 *Luxury & Upper Upscale Classes Only
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Overall Attendance at Largest Meeting Planned DestinationMAP Results – 2013 vs. 2015
Meetings of 1000+ Attendees are on the Rise
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Less than 300 300-999 1000+
2013 2015
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Charlotte Ranks Well Among Top 40 U.S. Meeting Destinations
Meeting Planner’s Perception on Charlotte’s Travel Image 2015 DestinationMAP Results
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Hotel Pipeline
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
In Construction
Vertical construction on the physical building has begun.
(This does not include construction on any sub-grade structures)
Final Planning
Construction will begin within the next 12 months.
Planning
Construction will begin in more than 13 months.
Unconfirmed
Potential projects that remain unconfirmed at this time.
STR Pipeline Phases U
nd
er
Co
ntr
act
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Construction Today will Impact 2017 and Beyond
Phase 2016 2015 % Change
In Construction 171 129 33%
Final Planning 197 174 13%
Planning 161 128 27%
Under Contract 529 430 23%
Total U.S. – Pipeline by Phase Room Count in Thousands July 2015 and July 2016
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Limited Service Construction has been Strong for 2 Years
7.6
19.6
59.4 55.5
6.4
1.0
22.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Luxury UpperUpscale
Upscale UpperMidscale
Midscale Economy Unaffiliated
67%
Total U.S. – U/C Rooms by Scale Room Count in Thousands July 2016
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Top 26 Markets Account for nearly 50% of U/C Rooms
Tho
usa
nd
s
81.7 89.6
79.1
117.6
69.3
92.4
0
50
100
150
Top 26 Markets All Other U.S. Markets
In Construction Final Planning Planning
Total U.S. – Top 26 Markets vs. All Other U.S. Markets Room Count in Thousands July 2016
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Total U.S. – U/C Rooms as a Percentage of Existing Supply July 2016
Construction In Top 26 Markets: 18 With 3%+ Of Supply
Market Rooms % of Existing Supply
New York, NY 15,770 14.0%
Denver, CO 4,451 10.1%
Seattle, WA 3,358 7.8%
Nashville, TN 2,822 7.3%
Dallas, TX 5,562 6.9%
Houston, TX 5,381 6.6%
Los Angeles/Long Beach, CA 5,633 5.7%
Minneapolis/St Paul, MN-WI 2,252 5.6%
Miami/Hialeah, FL 2,822 5.3%
Philadelphia, PA-NJ 2,169 4.7%
Tampa/St Petersburg, FL 1,878 4.2%
Boston, MA 2,136 4.0%
Chicago, IL 4,287 3.8%
Anaheim/Santa Ana, CA 2,075 3.6%
New Orleans, LA 1,381 3.5%
Washington, DC-MD-VA 3,612 3.3%
Oahu Island, HI 892 3.1%
Phoenix, AZ 1,862 3.0%
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
11.5% of Current Supply Under Contract
Phase Projects Rooms % of Supply
In Construction 53 6,212 4.1%
Final Planning 73 8,039 5.3%
Planning 30 3,184 2.1%
Under Contract 156 17,435 11.5%
North Carolina – Pipeline by Phase July 2016
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
79% of Rooms Under Contract are Upscale or Upper Midscale
0 10 20 30 40 50
Unaffiliated
Economy
Midscale
Upper Midscale
Upscale
Upper Upscale
Luxury
Under Contract Existing Supply
North Carolina – Pipeline Rooms by Scale Room Count in Thousands July 2016
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
U.S. Forecast
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Total United States Key Performance Indicator Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year)
Outlook
2016 Forecast
2017 Forecast
Supply 1.7% 1.9%
Demand 2.1% 1.9%
Occupancy 0.4% 0.0%
ADR 4.0% 3.8%
RevPAR 4.4% 3.8%
Questions? Presentation is available for download. To view this presentation, click “STR Data Presentations” from the drop-down menu on www.HotelNewsNow.com.
© 2016 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively “STR”) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.
© 2016 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively “STR”) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.
Thank You!
Melissa Holm
Business Development Executive, Hotels