Past Predictions

Where are we now?

Article by Jason Tomaszewski; Lesson by Education World

Background• For thousands of years, people have been

attempting to predict the future. Yet even masters of foresight – such as Nostradamus – have been at best vague, & at worst, dead wrong. o Determining the accuracy of long-ago

predictions not only tells us about the historical context of people who lived many years ago, but also holds clues about what will happen in the future.

Learning Objectives• You will read predictions (made by people

in the early 20th century) of what they thought life would be like in the year 2000.

• Then compare the predictions to what actually happened & speculate about what will happen in the future.

Preparation• Familiarize yourself with several

predictions – made by people in the early 1900s – of what life would be like in the year 2000.

o The following predictions were originally published by The Yorktown Historical Society & were taken from the December 1900 edition of the Ladies’ Home Journal & a collection of French prints referenced in the Paleo Future Blog:

Your Task• For each of the next 9 predictions, your

small group will discuss whether this prediction was true or false. There can be varying degrees (i.e. most of this prediction was true).

• Then you will discuss specific evidence that supports your ascertain that the prediction is true or false.

Prediction # 1• Everyone will want to be an

American.o “There will probably be from 350,000,000 to

500,000,000 people in America. Nicaragua will ask for admission to our Union after the completion of the great canal. Mexico will be next. [After having joined the Union,] Europe, seeking more territory to the south of us, will cause many of the South & Central American republics to be voted into the Union by their own people.”

Prediction # 2• We will be a society of

physical specimens.o “Gymnastics will begin in the

nursery, where toys & games will be designed to strengthen the muscles. Exercise will be compulsory in the schools. Every school, college & community will have a complete gymnasium. All cities will have public gymnasiums. A man or woman unable to walk 10 miles at a stretch will be regarded as a weakling.”

Prediction # 3• We’ll slaughter all the horses.

o “No mosquitoes nor flies. Insect screens will be unnecessary. Mosquitoes, house-flies & roaches will have been practically exterminated. Boards of health will have destroyed all mosquito haunts & breeding-grounds, drained all stagnant pools, filled in all swamp-lands, & chemically treated all still-water streams. The extermination of the horse & its stable will reduce the house-fly.”

Prediction # 4• Students will

learn from special headpieces. o Imagine if lessons

involved throwing books into a special machine that transmitted knowledge directly into students’ brains.

Prediction # 5• We’ll send photos over long

distances. o “Photographs will be telegraphed from any

distance. If there be a battle in China a hundred years hence, snapshots of its most striking events will be published in the newspapers an hour later. Even today, photographs are being telegraphed over short distances. Photographs will reproduce all of Nature’s colors.

Prediction # 6• Telephones will be able to call around

the world. o “Wireless telephone & telegraph circuits will

span the world. A husband in the middle of the Atlantic will be able to converse with his wife sitting in her boudoir in Chicago. We will be able to telephone to China quite as readily as we now talk from New York to Brooklyn. By an automatic signal, they will connect with any circuit in their locality without the intervention of a ‘hello girl’.”

Prediction # 7• People will use Skype-

like communications. o “Known at the time as

‘correspondence cinema,’ this was a steampunk version of video conferencing. Each participant in the conversation viewed his partner on a large movie screen while speaking into a phonograph-type device. A second person operating a telegraph-like device was also necessary.”

Prediction # 8• We will create genetically engineered

food. o “Strawberries as large as applies will be eaten by

our great-great-grandchildren for their Christmas dinners a hundred years hence. Raspberries & blackberries will be as large. One will suffice for the fruit course of each person. Strawberries & cranberries will be grown upon tall bushes. Cranberries, gooseberries, & currants will be as large as oranges. One cantaloupe will supply an entire family. Melons, cherries, grapes, plums, apples, pears, peaches, & all berries will be seedless. Figs will be cultivated over the entire U.S.”

Prediction # 9• Everyone will have a personal

aircraft.o How would you like to use your own one-

person airplane to get around?

Discussion Questions• 1. Having just come out of the Industrial

Revolution, it’s no surprise that people in 1900 predicted that in the future, we would take control of nature – for example, by eliminating an entire species of animals. Is this prediction likely to ever come true, given our modern concerns about protection of endangered species?

Discussion questions continued

• 2. Do you think killing horses is a reasonable method of eliminating flies? o A. Since 1900, what advances have been made

in terms of controlling insect populations? o B. What concerns do we have about these

methods? o C. Do you think we will use pesticides to

combat insect infestations in the future?

Questions continued• 3. Transportation was clearly very

important to people 100 years ago. We have already achieved air travel (although we haven’t seen much yet in terms of the personal aircraft). What achievements in transportation do you think we will make in the next 100 years?

Questions continued• 4. Perhaps the most accurate early 20th-

century predictions made about the year 2000 were in the area of communications. Currently we can, in fact, send photos over long distances, make telephone calls over any distance, & use “correspondence cinema” (what we now call video conferencing). Where do you think communication technology will go in the future?

Questions continued• 5. Clearly people in 1900 held a high

opinion of the U.S. & believed that other countries did too. Do you think other countries’ views of American changed between 1900 & 2000?o A. Do you think there will ever come a time

when other countries will seek to be added to the U.S.? Why or why not?

Questions continued• 6. What do you think of the prediction

made about the great physical strength of people in the year 2000?o A. What are some modern health concerns that

suggest the prediction may have been inaccurate?

o B. Do you think that as a society, we will improve our physical health, or will we continue to battle obesity?

Questions continued• 7. Today we are, in fact, genetically

engineering a variety of foods. What are some concerns we have about genetically modified foods?o A. How do you think this practice will impact

food in 100 years?

Questions continued• 8. While the prediction about classroom

learning through special headpieces did not come true, what advances do you think will be made in terms of classroom & learning technology in the next 100 years? o A. Consider tech tools such as interactive

whiteboards, e-books, iPads, Web 2.0 platforms & virtual learning environments, none of which existed in the early 20th century. How will these change or be replaced by newer technologies?

Last question!• 9. What invention do you most hope will

be common 100 years from now? o A. Why?o B. Do you think it’s likely to happen?