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Part IIIDouglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com
Recap of Parts I and IIRecap of Parts I and II
Part I: MetamorphosisPart I: Metamorphosis
LEGAL SUPPORTER
LEGAL SUPPORTER
ILLEGAL/LOGISTICAL SUPPORTER
ILLEGAL/LOGISTICAL SUPPORTER
MILITANT /
WEEKEND WARRIORMILITANT /
WEEKEND WARRIOR
HARDCORE TERRORIS
T
HARDCORE TERRORIS
T
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com
In Part I: Metamorphosis, we discussed the metamorphosis of a law abiding citizen to a hard-core Terrorist.
We discussed the observables such as changes in attitude, clothing, associations.
And we examined the “Trigger” effect, the “last straw” that pushed an individual over the edge.
There are Many Causes of There are Many Causes of TerrorismTerrorism
Geo-political issues, Ethnicity, Religious beliefs, Pro-choice, Pro-life,White Supremacists,Nigerian oil, Anti-war,Poverty
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP , CAS www.29-ten.com
Narcotics, Environment (ELF), Save the Whales, Save-the-Planet, Animals (ALF)Independence, Education, Fur
Terrorism IS NOT just about Radical Islamic beliefs, and terrorism does not just affect militaries and governments – Terrorism affects EVERYONE
The Bottom LineThe Bottom Line
If You Believe in Your CauseIf You Believe in Your Cause
Under the Right Type of PressureUnder the Right Type of Pressure
Almost Any One Can Become a Terrorist
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com
Under the right circumstances Under the right circumstances
Part II: MethodPart II: MethodMEDIA &
PUBLICITY
MEDIA & PUBLICITY
MEDIA & PUBLICITY
FINAL TARGETSELECTION(S)
ON/OFF-SITETARGET RESEARCH
WAIT
ESCAPE & EVASION
CURRENT SITUATION MEDIA & PUBLICITY
INITIAL TARGET SELECTIONS
THETHE
TERRORTERROR
IST IST
CYCLECYCLE
THE ACT !THE ACT !
AFTER ACTION REVIEWS
MOVEMENT TO TARGET
DECISION TIME
PLAN DEVELOPMENT
LOGISTICS SUPPORT
WEAPON ASSEMBLY
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP , CAS www.29-ten.com
In Part II: Method, we looked at the 13 phases of a terrorist incident.
We examined why one target may be chosen over another
We looked at the assessment of targets
We discussed “the Act”, and that it doesn’t always have to take lives to send a message
Lastly, we discussed the role of the media and publicity in the terrorist’s operations.
Terrorism, Like War, is Terrorism, Like War, is PropagandaPropaganda
It’s not how you say it - - it’s who says it.
“We do not talk to say something, but to attain a certain effect.”
Joseph Goebbels
“ Think of the press as a great keyboard on which the government can play.”
Fact: Terrorism IS “Front Page” Fact: Terrorism IS “Front Page” NewsNews
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS, CI Special Agent (USA Ret.) www.29-ten.com
TERRORISM IS A PUBLICITY BATTLE TERRORISM IS A PUBLICITY BATTLE FOR THE VIEWING AUDIENCEFOR THE VIEWING AUDIENCE
WHATEVER SIDE THE AUDIENCE WHATEVER SIDE THE AUDIENCE BACKSBACKS
WINS !!!Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS, www.29-ten.com
Part III: MitigationPart III: Mitigation
Mitigating Your Risks
• It’s Risk Mitigation - - Not Risk Avoidance• ypes of Targets - - Which One Are You• Liaison Operations – You Are Who You Know• Understanding the Threat• Defensible Space - - You Can’t Control Everything• Thorough Randomness - - A Roll of the Dice• CPTED – Use The Environment to Your Advantage• Open Source Intelligence• Conclusions
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com
Remember - It’s Risk Remember - It’s Risk Mitigation - Mitigation -
Not Risk AvoidanceNot Risk Avoidance• An organization does not have unlimited funds or manpower to ensure its
safety and security 100% of the time
• Organizations need to focus on specific threats and develop appropriate countermeasures to address these in order of probability
• What threat they address and when they employ offensive measures and defensive countermeasures will be the basis of mitigating those risks
Recent statistics indicate that American business interests have been targeted more frequently than those of the Federal Government. ~ U.S. Department of State
This means that a contractor may be more susceptible to harm than a Government employee.
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com
To Mitigate the Threat, First To Mitigate the Threat, First You Have to Know the You Have to Know the
Enemy Enemy • Understand the terrorist’s motivation• Understand their strengths and weaknesses• Understand their Social Networks• Understand their sources of financial aide• Understand their logistics procurement process• Understand how they recruit• Understand their communications channels
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com
“If you know the enemy and know yourself, your victory will not stand in doubt"
~ Sun Tzu
To Know the Enemy –To Know the Enemy –You Must LiaiseYou Must Liaise
Liaison is about obtaining AND sharing information
Liaison can be cultural, religious, business, political, security etc…
A good liaison operation will ensure you are the first to know, instead of the last.
Liaison endears you to your partner;you both have something to gain,and lose from the relationship
In liaison, as Reagan said, “Trust, but verify.”
A good contact can warn you prior to the terrorist act.
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com
Liaise with Everyone!!Liaise with Everyone!!Don’t Just Stop at the Don’t Just Stop at the
PolicePolice
Local Businesses
Religious Organizations
ODNI
DOD
Host NationLEA
Private Security Organizations
FBI
DEA
ASIS
GeneralPublic
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com
Neighborhood Watch
DHSFederal Marshalls
Local/StateLEA
Local/CityGovernment
Consulates and
Embassies
Global NGOOrganizations
Travel Agencies
Social Media
Networks
Taxi Operations
The terrorist, like the common criminal starts small, usually within the local communities and then expands their operations from this secure environment.
Most often it is going to be the local beat cop, or small business ownerwho notices these events and reports them
Cultivating these sources will benefit you and your organization - give you forewarning - and reduce your risk
Once You Understand the Once You Understand the Enemy, You have to Understand Enemy, You have to Understand What Type of Target your AreWhat Type of Target your Are
• Strategic Value Target: Long term impact, executive leadership, strategic centers, national command centers
• High Payoff: Immediate impact to energy and commerce• High Value: Degrade target’s ability to respond militarily or to sustain
itself economically• Low Value: Contribute to fear and harassment of local society. • Tactical Value: Degrade local LEA ability to react and respond• Symbolic Value: Heighten public fear and includes monuments, public
structures, government reps and diplomats• Ecological Value: Damage natural resources such as crops, natural
resources and industries• You may be on multiple target lists• Revaluate your threats randomly, as they will change
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com
Know Your EnvironmentKnow Your Environment
- Determine Why You Are a Target What is “IT” that makes you a target
- Remember, you may be a secondary “Personality” Target - Remember, you may be a secondary “Environmental” target- Remember, you may be a secondary “Inhabitant” target- Remember, you may be a secondary “Arterial” target- Remember, you may be a secondary “IS” target
Remember, You May Be a Remember, You May Be a Secondary TargetSecondary Target
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com
Rule Number 1: Rule Number 1: A Terrorist is like electricity - -
All things being equal , they will take the path of least resistance, the insecure operation that will offer the best chance for success.
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com
When Terrorists Assess When Terrorists Assess Targets They Adhere to Targets They Adhere to
Rule Number 1Rule Number 1
You DO NOT want to be the “PATH
OF LEAST RESISTANCE”
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com
All Things Being Equal, the All Things Being Equal, the “Path of Least Resistance” “Path of Least Resistance”
isis
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com
An Exploitable Weakness• An exploitable weakness is an observable activity (a pattern), or absence of activity (failure to respond to alarms)
• An exploitable weakness can occur on-site, off-site, in-transit , or electronically
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com
Threat mitigation IS NOT single-faceted. Threat mitigation MUST involve
ALL ASPECTS of your life.
A robust security plan at work, does you no good,
if you are attacked on your way to the office.
To Mitigate the Threat You To Mitigate the Threat You Need to Realize a Few Need to Realize a Few
ThingsThings
• Travel to/from Defensible Spaces• Guard Force/Corporate Security Routes/Times• Visitor, Parcel and Personnel Item Screening• Parking Space/Visitor/VIP/Emergency• Emergency Evacuation Routes• Emergency Evacuation Areas• Logistics Supply Routes/Times• Business Meetings Times/Locations• Corporate Computer Security Reviews
To Be Effective – To Be Effective – Thorough Randomness Thorough Randomness
MUST Cross ALL ActivitiesMUST Cross ALL Activities
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com
You Mitigate the Threat byThinking Outside the Box!
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com
You Mitigate the Threat byYou Mitigate the Threat byEducating EveryoneEducating Everyone
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com
I’m not just talking about the employees – I’m talking about the kids and spouses. Who knows better about something out of the ordinary better than a teenager, or a nosey spouse?
Every new set of educated eyes and ears is another layer of security.
After you understand the threat the next step would be to evaluate the threat and establish your defenses. Like your education programs, your defenses should also be
layered. And remember, you can’t protect everything, so you have to determine your “defensible space”
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com
You Mitigate the Threat byYou Mitigate the Threat byDetermining Your Defensible Determining Your Defensible
Space Space
Defensible SpaceDefensible Space
through the use of security personnel, electronic monitoring, access control, the environment and the overall workforce, whether soldiers or civilians.
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com
Is the ability to control access and monitor activities within a defined perimeter, such as a building, installation, residence, or facility -
Choosing Your Defensible Choosing Your Defensible SpaceSpace
• You can’t control everything – all of the time• You have to decide what is worth protecting • You have to develop layered barriers to mitigate the threat • These layers force a perpetrator to make conscious decisions• These decisions are observable• Choose your defensible spaces based on controllability and limit the
numbers with access – whether tangible or intangible
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com
You Mitigate the Threat to You Mitigate the Threat to Your Defensible Space byYour Defensible Space by
Layering Your SecurityLayering Your Security
Layering your Defenses
Layering your Education
And - - Layering your Responses
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com
You Layer Your Security Based onYou Layer Your Security Based onThe Four “D’s” of SecurityThe Four “D’s” of Security
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com
Deterrence, Detection, Defense, Defeat
Deterrence: Is when the terrorist perceives your operation’s security to be too great to overcome ; this is based on your offensive security projections
Detection: Is your ability to note the presence of an intruder based on your layered offensive security and defensive countermeasures – with enough time to put in place a planned response
Defense: Is your ability to delay, or prevent an intruder from achieving their goal
Defeat: Is the compilation of Deterrence, Detection and a solid Defense
The Most Important ofThe Most Important ofThe Four “D’s” The Four “D’s” ISIS Deterrence Deterrence
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com
The greatest general is the one who can win without fighting.
~Sun Tzu
Deterrence is a battle won in the minds of the enemy.~Sun Tzu
As my maneuvering has no fixed form or predictable response, even the spy who has reached my inner sanctum will not be able to discover my true intent. Nor would the wiliest opponent to able counter-measures against me.
~ Sun Tzu
One VERY Important Facet One VERY Important Facet of Deterrence ISof Deterrence IS
Thorough RandomnessThorough Randomness
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com
Thorough RandomnessThorough Randomness
Exponentially decreases your risks
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com
While it escalates the threat to the terrorist
Thorough Randomness Thorough Randomness Eliminates PatternsEliminates Patterns
Reduces the Terrorist’s “Luck Factor”
By eliminating patterns – you mitigate your risks
By recognizing patterns – you mitigate your risks
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com
So, Just What Is So, Just What Is Thorough Randomness?Thorough Randomness?
Thorough Randomness is the sum of its parts – it is evaluating your total physical security program, breaking it down into its individual facets, and implementing one specific action, or a group of activities, applicable to everyone, on a completely random basis in terms of time and duration.
Ran-dom: Made, or occurring without definite aim, reason, or pattern
Tho-rough: Complete with regard to every detail; not superficial or partial
Practicing Thorough Randomness can be as easy as – rolling the dice.
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com
Applying Thorough Applying Thorough Randomness to Your Randomness to Your
Defensible SpaceDefensible SpaceBy expanding the variables of time and route into you daily activitiesYou have increased your success factors exponentially;
By varying your routes and times, you have forced the terrorist toadjust their targeting tactics and logistical resources such as manpower and equipment;
To be successful the terrorist must get closer to your defensible spaceto observe your activities;
As they come closer in, their presence and activities may becomeobservable and thus make them vulnerable;
This gives your security force the upper hand in pro-active counter-measures
Rule Number 1: All things being equal, A terrorist is like electricity and will choose the path of least resistance
If your security counter-measures are evaluated to pose a threat to the accomplishment of the mission - -
The terrorist may
choose another target…
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com
To Be Effective – To Be Effective – The Countermeasures Must The Countermeasures Must
Be SimpleBe Simple
"Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler."
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com
Let’s look at employing Thorough Randomness in one aspect of your day - - travelling to/from your Defensible Spaces
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com
One Thing That IS NOT One Thing That IS NOT Random - You Always Check Random - You Always Check
Your Vehicle Before Getting on Your Vehicle Before Getting on The RoadThe Road
VEHICLE SECURITY PRIOR TO ENTERING VEHICLE CHECK DOORS/HOOD/TRUNK CHECK WHEELS/TIRES/LUGS CHECK UNDER VEHICLE FOR LOOSE WIRES, STRINGS, FLUIDS CHECK INTERIOR FRONT/BACK SEATS IF SOMETHING IS WRONG - WALK AWAY
GET IN AND DRIVE - DO NOT SIT IN VEHICLE
Not noticing these things in your ‘defensible space” may result in yourvehicle being in-operable in the terrorist’s “controllable space”.
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP. CPP www.29-ten.com
A simple thing like a few lose lug nuts can disable your vehicle ten minutes after departing a defensible space – leaving you vulnerable.
Once You Get on the RoadOnce You Get on the Road
VEHICLE SECURITY ON THE ROAD
GET IN, LOCK DOORS/WINDOWS STAY IN VEHICLE GROUPS STAY ON WELL TRAVELED THOROUGHFARES DRIVE ON INSIDE/OUTSIDE LANE WHERE YOU CAN MANEUVER AWAY LEAVE ENOUGH SPACE AT INTERSECTIONS TO EXECUTE EVASIVE ACTIONS AVOID DISTINCTIVE AMERICAN VEHICLE MARK INGS VARY DEPARTURE TIMES / ROUTES LEAVE IT INERARY WITH OFFICE/FAMILY
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CPP www.29-ten.com
By utilizing the same vehicle, same route and travelling at the same time every day you throw away
randomness and set up an exploitable pattern . A pattern will make you an easy target!
Forgotten RandomnessForgotten Randomness
Defensible SpaceResidence ConsulateDeparture Times: 0745 - 0800Arrival Times: 0815 – 0830
X
X
X
Look-Outs Observable PatternsChoke Points
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com
Pattern Established
Defensible Space (Out to In)Residence ConsulateDefense Measures: CCTV, Guards, Barriers, Badges, Vehicle/Parcel Checks, Uniforms, Vehicle Searches, Safe Rooms, Irregular Activities, Thorough Randomness, etc…
But these measures cannot protect you outside your defensible spaces.
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com
Employing Thorough Employing Thorough RandomnessRandomness
To/From Your Defensible SpacesTo/From Your Defensible Spaces
Employing thorough randomness, utilizing multiple vehicles, varying routes and travelling at the
different times every day you exponentially reduce your risks.
Defensible SpaceResidence ConsulateDeparture Times: 0745 - 0800
Arrival Times: 0815 – 0830
Travel Route – One
0645 - 0830
0745 - 0915
Multiple
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com
Employing Thorough Employing Thorough RandomnessRandomness
To/From Your Defensible To/From Your Defensible SpacesSpaces
Now to be successful, the Terrorist will have to put in place more personnel, keep them there for longer periods of time, use more support equipment, expand their logistics, all of which may draw unwanted attention to them.
This simple random measure on your part will exponentially decrease your risk and force the terrorist to re-evaluate their plan.
Risk MitigatedX
X
X
X X
XX
XX
X
Thorough Randomness Thorough Randomness Requires More of the Requires More of the Terrorist’s Logistics Terrorist’s Logistics
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com
Defensible SpaceResidence ConsulateDeparture Times: 0745 - 0800
0645 - 0815Arrival Times: 0815 – 0830
0715 - 0845Travel Route – One
Multiple
• Travel to/from Defensible Spaces• Guard Force/Corporate Security Routes/Times• Visitor, Parcel and Personnel Item Screening• Parking Space/Visitor/VIP/Emergency• Emergency Evacuation Routes• Emergency Evacuation Areas• Logistics Supply Routes/Times• Business Meetings Times/Locations• Corporate Computer Security Reviews
Thorough RandomnessThorough RandomnessAnd A Roll of the Dice And A Roll of the Dice
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com
For emergencies, a simple role of the dice can determine which location your people assemble at after vacating the facility .
For the guard force, a simple roll of a die can determine which route they take, or what time they depart.
For visitors, a simple role of the dice can determine which person you question and which briefcase you search.
For logistics, a simple role of the dice can determine which route you take and the day of the week you travel.
“Deception causes the deceived to take action that is otherwise not in their best interest. ”
~ SunTzu
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com
Hey man, you ever heard of CPTED?
CPTEDCPTED
• CPTED is Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design
• CPTED strategies rely upon the ability to influence offender decisions that precede criminal/terrorist acts by affecting the built, social and administrative environment.
• CPTED uses the environment, natural, or man-made to deter conscious behavior, or funnel the would-be perpetrator onto a specific route
• CPTED augments other access control and physical security barriers and deterrents
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com
CPTED is a tool to be applied to your security arsenal, used in conjunction with other tools such as access control systems, CCTV,
badging, thorough randomness and education to mitigate your risks.
CPTED Mitigates Your Risks ByCPTED Mitigates Your Risks ByAdvertising Your Territory Advertising Your Territory
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com
Red and Green Zone Channeling: Using natural and man-made barriers you can channel an audience in a direction you want (Green) and deter them from accessing locations you don’t (Red)
Green and Hard-scaping: Using the natural environment such as thorn bushes, holly trees and cacti to act as a natural physical barrier; using the earth removed from a building foundation to erect a berm around a facility three feet high, will eliminate any threat of a perpetrator driving a vehicle into your building.
Windows and Lighting: Well placed lights can illuminate paths for intended guests, while motion sensitive lights can illuminate intruders moving off a public area. Placing lighted windows or open spaces in long walls, or alcoves, can give the indication to a would be intruder that the area is under observation.
CPTED is blatant and suggestive marking of your territory – any individual consciously deciding to enter your marked territory IS A THREAT!
Fencing and Signage: By using signage, and fencing, you force people to make a conscious decision to proceed into your territory; their decision to move ahead, is a trigger to implement your countermeasures.
Never Forget the Media and Never Forget the Media and All That Open Source All That Open Source
IntelligenceIntelligence
The Internet can provide the criminal information on everything from information about key players and family, key up-coming events, over-head high-resolution images of your facility, major transportation routes and times, on-going operations, facility locations, addresses and phone numbers, legal and personnel issues, government contracts, building blueprints . . . Anything.
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com
The adversary uses this information in gauging the public opinion, recruiting insiders, planning and perpetrating an act.
The media is the best friend the adversary (terrorist/criminal) has. They provide free, corroborated raw intelligence, without strings.
You must constantly and randomly evaluate this open source information.
Once You Believe Have Covered Once You Believe Have Covered Everything - Go “Red Team” Everything - Go “Red Team”
Yourself!Yourself!
In government circles, Red Teaming is normally associated with assessing vulnerabilities and limitations of systems or structures. In exercises and war games, Red Teaming refers to the work performed to provide an adversarial perspective, especially when this perspective includes plausible tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTP) as well as realistic policy and doctrine.
What is a Red Team?
Red Teaming in a nutshell, is taking what you know about the adversary’scapabilities and tactics and using them against your activity in order to evaluate where your security is weak.
Like any good plan, the Red Team assessment must be conducted by a competent team and updated regularly - - lives depend on its thoroughness
and honesty.
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CPP www.29-ten.com
The Complete Picture:The Complete Picture:ConclusionsConclusions
In mitigating your risks, remember that nothing can guarantee your safety. There are multiple activities you can undertake to mitigate your risks:
Realize that you can only protect so muchYou Must Understand the Environment and PlayersYou Must Understand Physical and Personnel SecurityYou Must Vary your responses (drills, duress signals, fire,
bomb, etc…)You Must Practice Thorough Randomness
Lastly, have an exit plan.
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com
Contact InformationContact Information
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CASCI Special Agent (USA Ret.)
[email protected]: (410) 693-8653
Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com