Parallel Session A: Advances in regional downscalingicrc-cordex2019.cordex.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/10/Abstract... · Parallel Session A: Advances in regional downscaling

Parallel Session A: Advances in regional downscaling

A1: Uncertainties and added value

ORAL PRESENTATIONS

Parallel Session A: Advances in regional downscaling A1: Uncertainties and added value

Multi-domainintercomparisonandpotentialconflictsfromCORDEXsimulations:AnexamplefortheMediterraneanregion

MikelLegasa,SantanderMeteorologyGroup,Dpt.ofAppliedMathematicsandComputerScience,UniversityofCantabria,Santander,Spain

RodrigoManzanas,IPCC-WG1TSU,UniversitéParis-Saclay,Paris(France);SixtoHerrera,SantanderMeteorologyGroup,Dpt.ofAppliedMathematicsandComputerScience,UniversityofCantabria,

Santander(Spain);MikelLegasa,MaialenIturbide,JesúsFernández,SantanderMeteorologyGroup,Dpt.ofAppliedMathematicsandComputerScience,UniversityofCantabria,Santander(Spain);WilfranMoufouma-Okia,WorldMeteorologicalOrganisation(WMO),WCAS,CLPA,CLW,Geneva(Switzerland);PanmaoZhai,ChineseAcademyofMeteorologicalSciences,Beijing(China);José

ManuelGutiérrez,SantanderMeteorologyGroup,InstituteofPhysicsofCantabria(IFCA),CSIC-UniversityofCantabria,Santander(Spain)

The Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) has made available anenormous amount of regional climate simulations and projections in different domains across theworld.Despitebeingcrucialforthedevelopmentofbetteradaptationstrategiesandpolicymaking,itis difficult for a typical userof this kindof information tounderstand thedifferences thatmaybeexpectedacrossthedifferentdatasourcesavailableforagivenregion(differentdomains,GCM/RCMensembles,resolutions,etc.).ThisisthecaseforanumberofregionsofparticularinterestwhicharecoveredbymorethanoneCORDEXdomain.Arelevantquestioninthosecasesistheconsistencyandpotential conflicts which may arise for the projections provided by different domains. This workaddressesthishottopicbyfocusingontheMediterraneanregion,afirstillustrativecase-studywhichisencompassedbytheEURO-,AFR-andMED-CORDEXdomains.

Todoso,wefirstassesstheperformanceofacommonmulti-domainsetofRCMstosimulateanumberofprecipitation-relatedindicators(accountingforspellsandhigh-ordermoments)whendrivenwithERA-Interimdata.Preliminaryresultsfromthis“perfect”validationexperimentindicatethattheeffectofthechoiceofdomainisingeneralsmall.Second,toassesswhetherornotthesesmalldifferencesbecome relevantwhen the RCMs are driven by GCMs,we also inter-compare the climate changesignalsprojectedbythefullensembleofGCM/RCMcombinationsavailablefortheEURO-,MED-andAFR-CORDEXdomains,aswellasforthoseobtainedforthecommonsetofsimulationsavailableforthethreedomains.ThisallowstobettercharacterizetheuncertaintythatispresentinCORDEXclimatechangesimulations,coveringnotonlythemainfactorswhichhavebeentraditionallyanalyzed(choiceofGCM,RCM,scenario)butalsoanewonewhichhasnotbeentakenintoaccountbefore(thechoiceofdomain).Theresultsfromthisstudywillhelpdifferentusers’communitiestobetterframetheirdecisionsforimpactapplications.

Moreover,weplantobroadenthisstudybyapplyingthesamemethodologytootherregionsoftheworldwhereRCM-basedsimulationscomingfromdifferentCORDEXdomainsarealsoavailable.

Keywords:CORDEXdomains,regionaluncertainty,climatechangeprojections,dynamicaldownscaling


CORDEX-SEAprojectionoftemperatureandprecipitationandtheirtimeofemergenceinVietnam

ThanhNgo-Duc,UniversityofScienceandTechnologyofHanoi,Vietnam

ThanhNgo-Duc,HuongNguyen-Thuy,LongTrinh-Tuan,UniversityofScienceandTechnologyofHanoi,Vietnam

In Vietnam, reliable information about future climate conditions under different climate changescenarios is particularly important for adaptation efforts due to the high level of vulnerability ofVietnamtofutureclimatechanges.However,suchinformationisstilllackingintheregionorgenerallybasedonglobalclimatemodels(GCMs)thatmayhavelargeuncertaintiesinacomplexregionsuchasVietnam. In order to fill the gap, the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling /CoordinatedRegional Climate Downscaling EXperiment - Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX-SEA) project wasestablished and had successfully gathered members from several countries to carry out a highresolutionmulti-modelregionalclimatedownscalingexperiment(RCMs).

In this presentation, a summary of the recent findings of the SEACLID/CORDEX-SEA activities inVietnamisfirstlyintroduced.Next,weaddresshowsimulationsofpresent-dayclimateareinfluencedbythechoicesofvariousphysicalparameterizations inordertodeterminewhichschemesarewellsuitedtosimulatetheclimateovertheregion.TheaddedvaluesoftheRCMsversustheGCMswereshownforthe7climaticsub-regionsofVietnam,particularlyfortemperature.Lastly,weanalyzedtheTimeofEmergence(ToE)oftemperatureandprecipitationinVietnam.ToEisdefinedwhenaclimatechangesignalstartstoexceedthenoiserangeofprojectionuncertainty.ResultsshowedthattheToEof temperaturewasearlier for theRCMs than for theGCMsby~3-5yearsandalsoearlier for theRCP8.5 scenarios than for RCP4.5 by ~10 years. As therewere high uncertainties in the projectedrainfallinVietnam,thepatternsofrainfallTOEwereshowntohavehighvariabilityintheregion.

Keywords:TimeofEmergence,CORDEX-SEA,Vietnam

ParallelSessionA:Advancesinregionaldownscaling

A1:Uncertaintiesandaddedvalue

PresentdaybiasandfuturechangesignaloftemperatureoverChinainaseriesofmulti-GCMdrivenRCMsimulations.

XuejieGao,InstituteofAtmosphericPhysics,ChineseAcademyofSciences,China

XuejieGao,JiaWu,NationalClimateCenter,ChinaMeteorologicalAdministrationChina

SimulationofsurfaceairtemperatureoverChinafromasetofregionalclimatemodel(RCM)climatechangeexperimentsareanalyzedwith the focusonbiasandchangesignalof theRCManddrivinggeneralcirculationmodels(GCMs).Thesetconsistsof4simulationsbytheRCMofRegCM4drivenby

4 different GCMs for the period of 1979-2099, under the RCP4.5 (Representative ConcentrationPathway)scenario.Resultsshowthatforpresentdayconditions,theRCMprovideswithmorespatialdetailsof the distributionand in general reduces thebiasesofGCM, in particular inDJF. Thebiaspatterns show some correlationbetween the RCMand drivingGCM in DJF but not in JJA. SimilarpatternsofbiasesamongtheRCMsimulationsarefound,whichcanbeattributedtothelargeinternalmodelphysicsofit.Forchangesignals,dominantforcingfromtheGCMisevidentbothformagnitudeandlargescaledistributionintheregionalscale,aswellastheinter-annualchanges.Ingeneralnoclearrelationshipsarefoundbetweenthemodelbiasandchangesignal,bothforGCMandRCM.ReducedwarmingisprojectedbytheRCM,moresignificantinDJF.Furthermore,largedifferencesofthechangedistributionarefoundinthesub-regionalscale(riverbasins)betweentheRCManddrivingGCM.InDJF,profoundwarmingovertheTibetanPlateauissimulatedbytheRCMbutnotGCMs.

Keywords:modelbias,changesignal,regionalclimatemodel,China


AglobaloverviewofpresentandfutureclimateoverCORDEXdomainsbyRegCM4

ErikaCoppola,ICTP-AbdusSalamInternationalCentreforTheoreticalPhysicsEmanuelaPichelli,ErikaCoppola,ICTP-AbdusSalamInternationalCentreforTheoreticalPhysics,

TeamRegCM4CORDEX-CORE,worldwideinstitutions

The study provides an assessment of the ensemble climatologies for surface air temperature andprecipitationacrossninedomains(North,CentralandSouthAmerica,Europe,Africa,East,SouthandSouth-EastAsia andAustralasia).All simulationswere carriedoutwithin theCoordinatedRegionalDownscalingExperiment(CORDEX)frameworkusingtheICTPregionalmodel(RegCM4),drivenbyfourglobal climate models (GCMs; HadGEM2-ES, MPI-M-MPI-ESM-MR, NCC-NorESM1-M, NOAA-GFDL-ESM2M).Modelevaluationoverpresentday(1995–2014)isassessedagainstvariousobservationaldatasets; afterwards an analysis over near (2041 – 2060) and far future (2080 – 2099) climateprojectionsunderRCP2.6and8.5scenariosisinvestigated.Acomparisonoftheclimatechangesignalbetween RegCM4 and its driving GCMs shows the consistency and differences between the twoensembleprojections.Finally,amorein-depthinvestigationaboutcausesandvariabilityoftheclimatechangesignaliscarriedoutacrossregionswithstrongandconsistentsignal.

Keywords:highresolutionsimulations,DynamicalDownscaling,CORDEXCORE


ProjectedChangesinTemperatureoverSoutheastAsiaintheCORDEX-SEASimulations

GemmaTeresaNarisma,RegionalClimateSystemsLaboratory,ManilaObservatory,PhilippinesGemmaTeresaNarisma,AngelaMoninaMagnaye,EmilioGozo,FayeAbigailCruz,JenniferTibay,RegionalClimateSystemsLaboratory,ManilaObservatory,Philippines;LyndonMarkOlaguera,TokyoMetropolitanUniversity,Japan;RochelleCoronel,AteneodeDavaoUniversity,Philippines;

FredolinTangang,LiewJuneng,NationalUniversityofMalaysia,Malaysia;ThanhNgo-Duc,DepartmentofSpaceandAeronautics,UniversityofScienceandTechnologyofHanoi,VietnamAcademyofScienceandTechnology,Vietnam;TanPhan-Van,DepartmentofMeteorologyand

ClimateChange,VNUUniversityofScience,Vietnam;JerasornSantisirisomboon,RamkhamhaengUniversityCenterofRegionalClimateChangeandRenewableEnergy(RU-CORE),Ramkhamhaeng

University,Thailand;PatamaSinghruck,DepartmentofMarineScience,FacultyofScience,ChulalongkornUniversity,Thailand;DodoGunawan,CenterforClimateChangeInformation,Agency

forMeteorologyClimatologyandGeophysics(BMKG),Indonesia;EdvinAldrian,AgencyfortheAssessmentandApplicationofTechnology(BPPT),Indonesia

WeinvestigatefuturechangesintemperatureoverSoutheastAsiaintermsoftrendsandchanges,andshiftsusingtheSoutheastAsiaRegionalClimateDownscaling(SEACLID)/CoordinatedRegionalClimateDownscaling Experiment – Southeast Asia (CORDEX-SEA) simulations using the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5scenarios. In particular, we focus our analysis on: a) model validation and applying a weightedensembleofmodels;b)theaddedvalueofusingRegionalClimateModels(RCMs);andc)projectedchangesintemperature.Weperformedaweightingensembleapproach(Knuttietal.,2017)whereinmodelsthatagreepoorlywithobservationsforaselectedsetofdiagnosticsandmodelsthatlargelyduplicateexistingmodelsgetlessweight.OurresultsshowthatGlobalClimateModels(GCMs)havelargerbiasesovermountainousregionscomparedtothedownscaledmodelresults.Thecomparisonbetweenweightedandunweighteddownscaledmodelensembleshowthattheweightedensemblereduces the cold bias found in mainland Southeast Asia, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Further, theweighted ensemble has less bias with greatest improvement during the boreal summer season.Modeled climate variability in the weighted ensemble is also closer to observation than theunweighted ensemble. A potential added value approach (Di Luca et al., 2013) is applied to bothunweightedandweightedensembleandwefindthatmoreregionsoverSoutheastAsiaappeartohaveimprovedwithweightedensembleresults. Fortheprojectedclimate,wefindagreaterincreaseintemperatureforGCMsthaninRCMsespeciallyintheRCP8.5scenario.Inaseasonaltimescale,thereisgreaterwarming inborealandaustralwinterandsummer.Temperatureshiftsanalyzed throughprobability density functions (PDFs) show that there are similar climate shifting patterns overSoutheastAsiaregionsthatarewithinsimilarlatitudes.ThegreatershiftsintowarmerdistributionsarefoundovertheMaritimeContinent,whileminimalshifts inclimateareseenoverthemainlandSoutheastAsia.

Keywords: Regional climate modeling,climate variability,CORDEX-SEA,multi-model ensemble,near-surfaceairtemperature,climateprojections


ContrastingglobalandregionalclimatemodelsoverEuropeandAfrica

GrigoryNikulin,SwedishMeteorologicalandHydrologicalInstitute,Sweden

GrigoryNikulin,ErikKjellström,SwedishMeteorologicalandHydrologicalInstitute,Sweden

Analysis of regional climate model (RCM) simulations generated within the Coordinated RegionalclimateDownscaling Experiment (CORDEX) reveals that at regional scale, future climate change inRCMscanbequitedifferent,orevencontrastingto,changes intheirdrivingglobalclimatemodels(GCMs).Moreover, itwasfoundthatdifferentRCMsdownscalingthesameGCMmayalsoproducecontradicting future projections. Taking such contradictions into account, one can argue thatdynamical downscaling increases the range of uncertainties in climate projections. An alternativeinterpretation is that such contradictions in climate projections provide a useful insight intouncertaintiesinfutureregionalclimatechange.IncaseofcontrastingmessagesbetweenRCMsandtheir driving GCMs, local-scale processes defined by RCM parameterisations can be much moreimportantthanlarge-scaledriversdictatedbythedrivingGCMs.UsingtheEuro-andAfrica-CORDEXRCMensembleswefirstdocumentconsistentandcontradictingmessagesbetweentheCORDEXRCMsandtheirdrivingGCMs.Foradeeperunderstandingofthedriversofregionalclimatechange,amorecomprehensiveanalysisofrelevantprocesses isrequiredandwetryto identifywhatprocessesareresponsible for the contradictingmessages.Our results show that excludingGCMs and using onlyRCMs, a commonly established approach, can significantly change themessageon future regionalclimatechange.

Keywords:RCM,GCM,contradictions,CORDEX,climatechange


Uncertaintyandinter-modelvariationsinCORDEXSoutheastAsiamulti-modelsimulationsofprecipitation

FredolinTangang,TheNationalUniversityofMalaysia,Malaysia

FredolinTangang,JingXiangChung,TheNationalUniversityofMalaysia,Malaysia;SupariSupari,IndonesianAgencyforMeteorology,ClimatologyandGeophysics(BMKG),Indonesia;EsterSalimun,

SheauTiehNgai,LiewJuneng,TheNationalUniversityofMalaysia,Malaysia

CORDEXSoutheastAsia25kmx25kmsimulationscompriseof15memberswith7RCMsand12CMIP5GCMs.EvaluationofindividualmodelperformancesshowedthattwomembersneededtobeexcludedduetofailureincapturingthemonsooncirculationsduringhistoricalperiodaswellasshowingveryobviousclimatedriftrelativetotheGCMintheprojectionperiod.With13simulationmembers,theperformanceofensemblemean,uncertaintyandintermodalvariationswereevaluated.Generally,themodelensemblereasonablycapturedtheprecipitationspatialanditsseasonaldependencyovertheregionduringhistoricalperiods.However,theperformancesoversub-regionsvarywithatendencyforlargebiasesinareacomprisesofsmallandmultipleislands.Twokeyfindingsontheprojectedchangesofmean rainfall. Themost strikingone is thedrying tendencyover Indonesiaespeciallyover Java,SumatraandKalimantanduringborealsummerbymiddleandendof21stcentury,especiallyunderRCP8.5. Suchchanges canbe traced toenhance subsidenceover the region.Duringborealwinter,Indochina region is projected to be wetter. Despite the ensemble mean indicating a particulartendency of change, analysis of inter-model projections reveals large inter-model variations. Thispaperdiscussesonhowsuchinformationcanbeconveyedtotheusers.

Keywords:CORDEXSoutheastAsia,Precipitation,Uncertainty,Inter-modelvariations


WhatcanweknowaboutfutureprecipitationinAfrica?Robustness,significanceandaddedvalueofprojectionsfromalargeensemble

ofregionalclimatemodels

ChrisLennard,UniversityofCapeTown,SouthAfrica

AlessandroDosio,EuropeanCommission,JointResearchCentre(JRC),Italy;ChrisLennard,UniversityofCapeTown,SouthAfrica;RichardJones,MetOfficeHadleyCentre,UnitedKingdom;Christopher

Jack,UniversityofCapeTown,SouthAfrica;GrigoryNikulin,SwedishMeteorologicalandHydrologicalInstitute,Sweden;BruceHewitson,UniversityofCapeTown,SouthAfrica

Weemploy a large ensemble of Regional ClimateModels (RCMs) from the COordinatedRegional-climateDownscalingEXperiment(CORDEX)toexploretwoquestions:1)whatcanweknowaboutthefutureprecipitationcharacteristicsoverAfrica?and2)doesthisinformationdifferfromthatderivedfromthedrivingGlobalClimateModels(GCMs)?

Bytakingintoaccountboththestatisticalsignificanceofthechangeandthemodels’agreementonitssign,weidentifyregionswheretheprojectedclimatechangesignalisrobust,suggestingconfidencethat the precipitation characteristics will change, and those where changes in the precipitationstatisticsarenon-significant.

Resultsshowthat,whenspatiallyaveraged,RCMsresultsareusuallyinagreementwiththoseoftheGCMsensemble:eventhoughthechangeinseasonalmeanprecipitationmaydiffer,insomecases,otherprecipitationcharacteristics(e.g.,intensity,frequency,anddurationofdryandwetspells)showthesametendency.Whentherobustchange(i.e.,thevalueofthechangeaveragedonlyoverthelandpointswhereitisrobust)iscomparedbetweentheCGMsandRCMs,similaritiesarestriking,indicatingthat,althoughwithsomeuncertaintyonthegeographicalextent,GCMsandRCMsprojectaconsistentfuture.

TheimpactoftheheterogeneityoftheGCM-RCMmatrixontheresultshasbeenalsoinvestigated;wefound that, formost regions and indices, where results are robust or non-significant, they are soindependentlyonthechoiceoftheRCMorGCM.However,therearecases,especiallyoverCentralAfricaandpartsofWestAfrica,whereresultsareuncertain,i.e.mostoftheRCMsprojectastatisticallysignificantchangebuttheydonotagreeonitssign.Inthesecases,especiallywhereresultsareclearlyclusteredaccordingtotheRCM,thereisnotasimplewayofsubsamplingthemodelensembleinordertoreducetheuncertaintyortoinferamorerobustresult.

Keywords:CORDEX-Africa,Futureprecipitationcharacteristics,RegionalClimateModels


AspatialrepresentationofanAddedValueIndexforRegionalClimateModels

JamesCiarlo,ICTP,Italy

JamesCiarlo,ErikaCoppola,AdrianoFantini,FilippoGiorgi,ICTP,Italy;RegCM4CORDEX-CORETeam,ICTP

In the past decades, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) have undergone substantial development,resulting in increasingly reliable high-resolution simulations. Despite this, Global Climate Models(GCMs) can sometimes perform better in regions of low topographic complexity and thus, it isimportanttoquantifytheaddedvalueofaRCM.Whileanumberofstudiesdescribedifferentmethodsto quantify this added value, here, a new quantificationmethod for the added value of RCMs isintroducedandtested.

ThismethodcomparestheProbabilityDistributionFunctionofaRCM,aGCM,andahigh-resolutionobservation source for any parameter. The comparison is performed using the sum of probabilitydifference,andrepeatingthemethodoneverygridcellinordertoobtainaspatialrepresentationoftheaddedvalue.AnensembleofRCMsisusedtodemonstrateandtestthismethodontheEURO-CORDEX region. The primary focus of the analysis was daily precipitation and tail fraction of thedistribution,buttheadditionalfractions,CORDEXregions,andConvectivePermittingsimulationdatamaysoonbeusedforabroader-scaletestofthisnewmethod.

Keywords:AddedValue,RCM,CORDEX


UncertaintiesinCORDEXsimulationsoverCentralAfricaandclimatechangeat1.5°C,2°Cand3°Cglobalwarminglevels

ThierryChristianFotsoNguemo,ClimateChangeResearchLaboratory,NationalInstituteofCartography,Cameroon;

ThierryChristianFotsoNguemo,ClimateChangeResearchLaboratory,NationalInstituteofCartography,Cameroon;IsmaïlaDiallo,DepartmentofGeography,UniversityofCaliforniaLos

Angeles,UnitedStates;GabrielK.Fotso,AlainT.Tamoffo,LaboratoryforEnvironmentalModellingandAtmosphericPhysics,DepartmentofPhysics,FacultyofScience,UniversityofYaounde1,Cameroon;ZéphirinD.Yepdo,ClimateChangeResearchLaboratory,NationalInstituteof

Cartography,Cameroon;DerbetiniA.Vondou,LaboratoryforEnvironmentalModellingandAtmosphericPhysics,DepartmentofPhysics,FacultyofScience,UniversityofYaounde1,Cameroon

Theuncertaintiesinregionalclimatemodels(RCMs)areevaluatedoverCentralAfricaduringpresent-dayclimate(1989-2008)byanalysingoutputsdataoffiveRCMs(REMO,CRCM5,RegCM4,CCLM4andRCA4),eachoneisforcedbyERA-InterimreanalysisandMPI-ESMgeneralclimatemodel.Spatialandquantitative analysis over some selected climatic subregions of Central Africa for the meanclimatology, the inter-annualvariabilityof temperatureandrainfall,aswellas low-levelcirculationhave show that the RCMs have systematic biases which are independent from different forcingdatasets.BiasesinRCMsarenotconsistentwiththebiasesinthedrivingfieldsandthemodelsshowsimilarspatialpatternsafterdownscalingbydifferentglobaldatasets.TheannualcycleoftemperatureandrainfalliswellsimulatedbytheRCMs,howevertheRCMsarenotabletocapturetheinter-annualvariabilityoverintheCongoBasinandcountrieslocatedintheAtlanticcoast.WealsofoundthattheRCMssimulationsaregenerallyabletocapturetheobservedvaluesofextremerainfallindicesinmanycases. For the future climate analysis,MPI-ESM is downscaled under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissionscenarios. The climate change signal is consistent between MPI-ESM and RCMs but the regionalwarmingdifferconsiderablyfor1.5°C,2°Cand3°Cglobalwarming levels.Comparedtochanges intemperature,changesinrainfallaremoreheterogeneousandclimatemodelsimulationsindicateoflackconsensusacrosstheregion,thoughthereistendencytowardsdecreaseofseasonalrainfallovernortheasternCameroon,GabonandDemocraticRepublicofCongo.

Keywords:Regionalclimatemodel,Uncertainty,CentralAfrica,Globalwarminglevels,Climatechange



POSTER PRESENTATIONS

LASTNAME FIRSTNAME TITLE POSTERNUMBER

ADIBI Parya EvaluationoftheClimateForecastSystemversion2overIran A1-P-01

ANG PaulDanielPerformanceofdownscaledconvectiveandstratiformprecipitationoverthePhilippinesduringtheEastAsianWinterMonsoon

A1-P-02

BUONOMO ErasmoLarge-scaleconsistencywithdrivingGCMandfinescaledetailsinthepresent-dayclimatesimulatedbytheEuroCORDEXRCMintegrations

A1-P-03

CARRIL AndreaTheinfluenceofregionalnudingoverSouthAmericaonthesimulationoftheSouthernHemisphereextratropicalcirculation

A1-P-04

CARRIL Andrea ThepotentialaddedvalueofRegionalClimateModelsinSouthAmericausingamultiresolutionapproach A1-P-05

CAVAZOS TerezaIntercomparisonofobservedandsimulatedclimatictrendsintheCORDEX-CAM(CentralAmerica,CaribbeanandMexico)domain

A1-P-06

CHAOWIWAT Winai FrequencyAnalysisofAnnualMaximumRainfalloverThailandunderChangingClimate A1-P-07

CHOUDHARY Anubhav EvaluationofaddedvalueofCORDEX-SAexperimentsinrepresentingIndiansummermonsooncharacteristics A1-P-08

CHRISTENSEN Ole HowEuropeanprojectionshavechangedthrough20yearsofmulti-modelensembleprojects A1-P-09

DEJESUS Eduardo ClimatologyandtrendofcyclonesovertheSouthAtlanticOceansimulatedbyglobalandregionalclimatemodels A1-P-10

GOODMAN Alex TheRegionalClimateModelEvaluationSystem:ASystematicEvaluationOfCORDEXSimulationsUsingObs4MIPs A1-P-11

GUTOWSKI William ExoticUncertaintiesinNorthAmericaCORDEX A1-P-12

HALENKA Tomas ClimatechangeprojectionsinRegCMCORDEX-COREsimulationsviaKoeppen-Trewarthaclimateclassification A1-P-13

ITO Rui

PerformanceevaluationofallsubsetsfromtheCMIP5multimodelensembleusedineachCORDEXregion:Representationofthepresentclimateanduncertaintyrangeofclimatechangeprojections

A1-P-14

JAYANARAYANAN SanjayAssessmentofFutureClimateChangeoverIndiaandHinduKushHimalayanRegionsusingCORDEXSouthAsiaRegionalClimateModelProjections

A1-P-15

KEBE IbourahimaProjectedchangesintherelationshipbetweenPrecipitation,AfricanEasterlyJetandAfricanEasterlyWavesunderglobalWarming

A1-P-16

LEE KyoMulti-resolutioninvestigationoflongtermregional/localtrendsintemperatureandprecipitationfromobservationsandNA-CORDEXregionalclimatesimulations

A1-P-17

LENNARD Chris TenyearsofCORDEX-areview A1-P-18

MAGNAYE AngelaMoninaInvestigatingSeaSurfaceTemperatureRepresentationanditsPotentialInfluenceinSEACLID/CORDEX-SoutheastAsiaRegionalClimateSimulations

A1-P-19

MURAMBADORO Miriam AssessingthevalueofclimateinformationforlocalgovernmentofficialsinSouthAfrica A1-P-20

NGUYEN-THI Tuyet ClimateanalogandfutureappearanceofnovelclimateinSoutheastAsia A1-P-21

NIU xiaorui OnthesensitivityofseasonalanddiurnalprecipitationtocumulusparameterizationoverCORDEX-EA-II A1-P-22

NKRUMAH Francis ThepotentialofCORDEXtocapturelongtermextremeeventsoverGuineaCoast A1-P-23

OKORO UgochukwuVariabilityandtrendsofAtmosphericMoistureinrecentWestAfricanmonsoonseasonandtheCORDEX-Africaprojected21stcenturyscenarios.

A1-P-24

PETER Justin Howimportantistheclimatechangesignatureininputstohydrologicalmodelsin2050and2100? A1-P-25

PINTO Izidine Inter-comparisonoftemperaturetrendsinCORDEXmodelsandCMIP5models A1-P-26

RAFFAELE Francesca AssessmentoftheCORDEX-AtlasAfricasimulationsaddedvalueanduncertaintyoftheclimatechangesignal A1-P-27

RASUL GHULAMApplicationoftheQuantileMapingandProbabilityDensityFunctionsApproachusingCORDEXDataforDroughtandFloodFrequenciesinPakistan

A1-P-28

REBOITA MichelleAssessmentoffuturecyclonesactivityintheCORDEXSouthernHemispheredomainsfollowingaMulti-ModelEnsembleapproach

A1-P-29

REMEDIO ArmelleReca Potential future climate regimes based on an ensemble of CORDEX-CORE simulations using REMO A1-P-30

RUBANGAKENE DamascoModellingpotentialimpactsoffutureclimateonbarley(HordeumvulgareL.)productivityineasternTigray,northernEthiopia

A1-P-31

SINGH Ram UncertaintyinclimatechangeprojectionsoverIndiausingtwodynamicaldownscalingtechniques A1-P-32

SUN Biyun ValidationforthetropicalbeltversionofWRF:Sensitivitytestsonradiationandcumulusconvectionparameterizations A1-P-33

TAGUELANDETATSIN Thierry CORDEXmulti-RCMhindcastoverCentralAfrica:Evaluation

withinobservationaluncertainty A1-P-34

TIBAY JenniferUncertaintiesinDetectingTropicalCyclonesinRegionalClimateModelSimulationsovertheCORDEX-SoutheastAsiaDomain

A1-P-35

UZZAMAN Md.Arfan Harnessingtheeconomicbenefitsunderuncertainty:EvidencefromtheTeestariverbasinofBangladesh A1-P-36

WANG Jiali HighresolutionsimulationsandprojectionsovermostofNorthAmerica:achievementsandon-goingwork A1-P-37

WU Minchao IdentifyingaddedvalueofRCMsforsimulatedprecipitationinAfrica A1-P-38

YU Ke Evaluationofmulti-RCMhigh-resolutionhindcastovertheCORDEXEastAsiaPhaseIIregion A1-P-39



A1-P-01

EvaluationoftheClimateForecastSystemversion2overIran

ParyaAdibi,InstituteofGeophysics,UniversityofTehran,Iran

ParyaAdibi,InstituteofGeophysics,UniversityofTehran,Iran;OmidAlizadeh-Choobari,InstituteofGeophysics,UniversityofTehran,Iran

Skillful seasonal predictionof the surface temperature andprecipitation is needed tomitigate theimpact of extreme climate events such as floods and droughts. Using a continuousmulti-decadalsimulationsovertheperiod1981-2010,subseasonaltoseasonalsimulationsoftheClimateForecastSystemversion2 (CFSv2)over Iranagainst theClimaticResearchUnit (CRU)datasetareevaluated,focusingonforecastsof2-mtemperatureandprecipitation.CFSv2showscoldbiasesovernorthernhillsides of theAlborzMountainswith theMediterranean climate andwarmbiases over northernregionsofthePersianGulfandtheOmanSeawithadryclimate.Magnitudeofthemodelbiasfor2-mtemperatureoverdifferentregionsofIranvariesbyseason,withtheleastbiasintemperateseasonsof spring and autumn, and the largest bias in summer, and themodel bias decreases as temporalaveraging period increases from seasonal to annual. The forecast generally produces dry andwetbiasesoverdryandwetregionsofIran,respectively.Ingeneral,2-mtemperatureoverIranisbettercapturedthanprecipitation,butthepredictionskillofprecipitationisgenerallyhighoverwesternIran.AveragedoverIran,observationsindicatedthat2-mtemperaturehasbeengraduallyincreasingduringthestudiedperiod,witharateofapproximately0.5ºCperdecade,andtheupwardtrendisquitewellsimulated by CFSv2 (with a rate of approximately 0.6ºC per decade). Averaged over Iran, bothobservationsandsimulationresults indicatedthatprecipitationhasbeendecreasing inspring,withaverageddecreasingtrendsof0.8mm(observed)and1.7mm(simulated)perseasoneachyearduringthe period 1981-2010. Observations also indicated that the maximum increasing trend of 2-mtemperaturehasoccurredoverwesternIran(nearly0.7ºCperdecade),whilethemaximumdecreasingtrendofannualprecipitationhasoccurredoverwesternandpartsofsouthernIran(nearly45to50mmperdecade).

Keywords: Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), Seasonal Prediction, Model bias, CRU dataset


A1-P-02

PerformanceofdownscaledconvectiveandstratiformprecipitationoverthePhilippinesduringtheEastAsianWinterMonsoon

PaulDanielAng,InstituteofEnvironmentalScienceandMeteorology,UniversityofthePhilippinesDiliman,Philippines

PaulDanielAng,InstituteofEnvironmentalScienceandMeteorology,UniversityofthePhilippinesDiliman,Philippines,Philippines;GayJanePerez,InstituteofEnvironmentalScienceand

Meteorology,UniversityofthePhilippinesDiliman,Philippines,

Weinvestigatethedisagreementintheconvectiveandstratiformpentadprecipitationbetweenthe0.25°x0.25°GlobalPrecipitationMeasurement(GPM)MicrowaveImager(GMI)andthe0.75°x0.75°EuropeanCentreforMedium-RangeWeatherForecasting(ECMWF)ReanalysisInterim(ERA-Interim)datasets.ThestudyfocusesontheEastAsianWinterMonsoonperiodfrom2014to2017overthePhilippineregion.TheERA-InterimreanalysesarethendownscaledtomatchtheGMIresolutionusingthe Regional Climate Model version 4.7 (RegCM4.7) with the MIT-Emanuel and Tiedtke cumulusparametrizationschemes.RainfalloveroceanisbettercapturedusingtheTiedtkeschemealthoughrainfall over land is generally overestimated for both schemes. Wet bias of stratiform rainfall isobservedovertheCordilleranmountainrangeespeciallyfortheTiedtkescheme.

Keywords: Dynamical downscaling, Rainfall, Philippines, East Asian Winter Monsoon


A1-P-03

Large-scaleconsistencywithdrivingGCMandfinescaledetailsinthepresent-dayclimatesimulatedbytheEuroCORDEXRCMintegrations

ErasmoBuonomo,MetOffice,UnitedKingdom

The analysis of the consistency of RCMs with the driving boundary conditions at the larger scale, implicitly assumed to be satisfied in the "one-way" nesting approach, has been analysed for the EuroCORDEX 12km set of simulations.

The results indicate that the consistency with driving conditions is very high, and its dependence on the GCM formulation could be neglected as a first order approximations, supporting the assessments of the multi-model uncertainty based on experimental design whereby RCM and GCM are treated as independent factors (GCM/RCM matrices). Additional investigation of the factor influencing the GCM/RCM consistenct will be presented at the conference.

Keywords: Experimental design, One-way nesting, Large scale constistency


A1-P-04

TheinfluenceofregionalnudingoverSouthAmericaonthesimulationoftheSouthernHemisphereextratropicalcirculation

AndreaF.Carril,UniversidaddeBuenosAires-ConsejoNacionaldeInvestigacionesCientíficasyTécnicas,CentrodeInvestigacionesdelMarylaAtmósfera(CIMA/UBA-CONICET),

BuenosAires,Argentina

AndreaF.Carril,MagdalenaFalco,UniversidaddeBuenosAires-ConsejoNacionaldeInvestigacionesCientíficasyTécnicas,CentrodeInvestigacionesdelMarylaAtmósfera(CIMA/UBA-

CONICET),BuenosAires,Argentina;LaurentX.Z.Li,LaboratoiredeMétéorologieDynamique(LMD/CNRS),Paris,France;ClaudioG.Menendez,UniversidaddeBuenosAires-ConsejoNacionaldeInvestigacionesCientíficasyTécnicas,CentrodeInvestigacionesdelMarylaAtmósfera(CIMA/UBA-

CONICET),BuenosAires,Argentina

Thisworkpresentsnewmodelingevidenceshowingtheaddedvalueofhigh-resolutioninformationfromSouthAmerica(SA)inthesimulationoftheSouthernHemisphereextratropicalcirculation.LMDZ,a coarse-resolutionatmosphericglobalgeneral circulationmodel constitutes themain tool for thisinvestigation.Paralleltothecontrol(CTR)simulation,atwo-waynesting(TWN)simulationofLMDZisperformedwithaninteractivecouplingtothesamemodel,butwithahigher-resolutionzoomoverSA.Thethirdsimulation(fERAi)isaperfectboundarysimulationforwhichre-analysisinformationfromERA-InterimisusedtonudgeLMDZ,butonlyoverSA.ResultsindicatethatenhancedresolutionoverSA improvestherepresentationofthe low-levelcirculationoverthecontinentand,thus,simulatesbetterthemeridionaltransportofenergyfromthetropicsintoextratropics.Thelocalimprovementofthelow-levelcirculationisfollowedbyabetterrepresentationoftheglobalextratropicalcirculation,especially in austral summer. The regional climate enhancement over SA has positive effects onsimulationofthemidlatitudejetpositionduringtheaustralsummerbysignificantlyreducingthebiasofthemeanzonalkineticenergyoutsidethenudgedzone.Ontheotherhand,thewintertimegeneralcirculation outside the nudged-zone shows a limited bias-reduction for the regional-drivensimulations,especially inthecaseoftheTWNsystem.However, improvementsoftheTWNsystemcomparedtothecontrolexperimentarenoticedinearlystagesofcyclonelifecycle,asitisidentifiedin a better simulationof transientmeridional transport and transient kinetic energy intensity. Thefindingsofthepresentstudysuggest,thus,thatimprovementsinresolutionoverSAeffectivelyexcitethesimulationofthemeanatmosphericcirculationintheSouthernHemisphere.

Keywords: Two-way nesting system, Extratropical circulation, Southern hemisphere, Influence of South American regional climate


A1-P-05

ThepotentialaddedvalueofRegionalClimateModelsinSouthAmericausingamultiresolutionapproach

AndreaF.Carril,UniversidaddeBuenosAires-ConsejoNacionaldeInvestigacionesCientíficasyTécnicas,CentrodeInvestigacionesdelMarylaAtmósfera(CIMA/UBA-CONICET),

BuenosAires,Argentina

AndreaF.CARRIL,MagdalenaFalco,UniversidaddeBuenosAires-ConsejoNacionaldeInvestigacionesCientíficasyTécnicas,CentrodeInvestigacionesdelMarylaAtmósfera(CIMA/UBA-CONICET),BuenosAires,Argentina;CarlosCabreli,UniversidaddeBuenosAires,FacultaddeCiencias

ExactasyNaturales,DepartamentodeMatemática(DM/FCEN/UBA),BuenosAires,Argentina;LaurentX.Z.Li,LaboratoiredeMétéorologieDynamique(LMD/CNRS),Paris,France;ClaudioG.

Menendez,UniversidaddeBuenosAires-ConsejoNacionaldeInvestigacionesCientíficasyTécnicas,CentrodeInvestigacionesdelMarylaAtmósfera(CIMA/UBA-CONICET),BuenosAires,Argentina

Thiswork aims to identify those regionswithin the SouthAmerican continentwhere theRegionalClimateModels(RCMs)havethepotentialtoaddvaluecomparedtotheircoarser-resolutionglobalforcing.Forthis,wedistinguishedthemesoscaleclimaticsignalpresentinatmosphericsurfacefieldsfromobserveddataand6RCMsimulationsbelongingtotheCORDEXProject.Weusedaspatial-scalefilteringmethodbasedonthewavelettheoryandkeptthosescalesthatcanbeexplicitlysimulatedbytheRCMandnotbyitsdriver.Oncethelongerwavelengthswerefiltered,wefocusedonanalyzingthespatial variabilityofextreme rainfall and the spatiotemporal variabilityofmaximumandminimumsurface air temperature on a daily basis. The results obtained suggest essential differences in thespatial distribution of themesoscale signal of extreme precipitation between TRMM and regionalmodels, together with a large dispersion between models. While TRMM registers a large signalthroughoutthecontinent,theRCMsplaceitoverregionswithcomplextopographyorareaswhereconvectivesystemsdominate.Surfaceairtemperaturehasalargemesoscalestationarycomponentover regions characterized by complex topography, such as theAndes Cordillera and the BrazilianHighlands,andthecoastsofthecontinent.Thetransientpartismuchsmallerthanthestationaryone,exceptoverlaPlataBasinwheretheyareofthesameorderofmagnitude.Also,theRCMsandCRUshowedalargespreadbetweentheminrepresentingthisvariability.TheresultsconfirmthatRCMshavethepotentialtoaddvalueintherepresentationofextremeprecipitationandthemeansurfacetemperature in South America. However, this condition is not applicable throughout the wholecontinentbutisparticularlyrelevantinthoseterrestrialregionswherethesurfaceforcingisstrong,suchastheAndesCordilleraorthecoastsofthecontinent.

Keywords: Added value, South America, Wavelet


A1-P-06

IntercomparisonofobservedandsimulatedclimatictrendsintheCORDEX-CAM(CentralAmerica,CaribbeanandMexico)domain

TerezaCavazos,CICESE,Mexico

TerezaCavazos,RosaB.Luna,CICESE,Mexico;RuthCerezo-Mota,UNAM,Mexico;RamonFuentes-Franco,SMHI,Sweden;MatiasMendez,UniversidadVeracruzana,Mexico;LuisFelipePineda,

UniversidaddeZacatecas,Mexico;ErnestoValenzuela,CICESE,Mexico

An intercomparison of three regional climate models (RCMs) was performed over the Coordinated Regional Dynamical Experiment (CORDEX) - Central America, Caribbean and Mexico (CAM) domain to determine their ability to reproduce observed temperature and precipitation trends during 1980-2010. PRECIS-HadRM3P, RCA4, and two versions of RegCM4 were forced with ERA-Interim Reanalysis. Observations from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) and ERA-Interim show a generalized warming over most of the domain. The most significant warming trend (≥ 0.33°C decade-1) is observed in the North American monsoon (NAM) region, which is moderately captured by the three RCMs, but with less intensity; each decade from 1970 to 2016 has become warmer than the previous ones, especially during the summer. Moreover, since the 1990s the 95th percentile threshold of summer temperatures in the NAM has also significantly increased. The warming trend is also observed in the 1950-2017 period and appears to be partially related to the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (+AMO).

There is a good agreement between observations (CRU, GPCP and CHIRPS) showing annual decreases of precipitation (less than -15% decade-1) in parts of the Southwest United States and Northwestern Mexico, including the NAM, and a positive trend (5% to 10% decade-1) in June-September in eastern Mexico, the mid-summer drought (MSD) region, and northern South America, but observed longer trends (1950-2017) in the NAM and the MSD are not statistically significant. Some of the observed regional trends of precipitation are captured by the RCMs. During 1980-2010, observations and RCMs show a good consistency in the wintertime precipitation trends in most of the domain. However, summer precipitation trends from GPCP show opposite sign to those of CRU and CHIRPS over the Mexican coasts of the Gulf of Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, and Cuba, possibly due to data limitations and differences in grid resolutions. Summer precipitation trends from the RCMs also show more regional differences than during winter. Our results show the importance of evaluating several observational datasets and RCMs to determine the regions and seasons that show less uncertainty.

Keywords: Trends, CORDEX-CAM, Intercomparison, Regional models


A1-P-07

FrequencyanalysisofannualmaximumrainfalloverThailand£underchangingclimate

WinaiChaowiwat,HydroInformaticsInstitute,Thailand

WinaiChaowiwat,KanoksriSarinnapakorn,SurajateBoonya-Aroonnate,SutatWeesakulHydroInformaticsInstitute,Thailand

Regarding to climate change affected to the changes in local hydrology which caused to morefrequencyoffloodanddrought.Theseimpactsobviouslyinfluencethefrequencyandseverityoffloodsanddroughtsexperiencedinmanycountriesaroundtheworld.Inthevulnerableareasmightobtainsmoredisasterwithunavoidable.Especiallythefloodriskareashavemorechancestoencountertheuncertainofheavyrainfall.Therefore,oneofadaptionmeasureshouldbeprovidedthefutureclimateinformationtomakeawarenesstopeopletocopewiththechanges.ThisstudyaimstoanalyzethechangesinfrequencyofannualmaximumrainfallusingmultibiascorrectedGCMunderCMIP5project.Ten sets of bias corrected GCM precipitation datasets under the Representative ConcentrationPathway(RCP4.5andRCP8.5)areusedtocalculateannualmaximumrainfall.TheGumbel,GeneralExtremeValues,Weibull,Lognormal,LogPearsonTypeIIIdistributionareusedtoanalyzefrequencyof maximum rainfall and the goodness of fit tests are evaluated the appropriate distribution ofmaximumrainfall.Theresultingofmaximumrainfallwithreturnperiodcanbeusedtoidentifythefloodriskareaunderchangingclimate.

Keywords: climate change,frequency analysis, Gumbel, General Extreme Values, Weibull, Log normal, Log Pearson Type III


A1-P-08

EvaluationofaddedvalueofCORDEX-SAexperimentsinrepresentingIndiansummermonsooncharacteristics

AnubhavChoudhary,KarlsruheInstituteofTechnology,Germany,Germany

AnubhavChoudhary,KarlsruheInstituteofTechnology,Germany,Germany;A.P.Dimri,JawaharlalNehruUniversity,India,India;HeikoPaeth,UniversityofWuerzburg,Germany,Germany

In recent times, there has been a growing debate on benefit of dynamical downscaling that is applying regional climate models (RCMs) over their coarser counterparts- global climate model models (GCMs). In light of this new area of research in climate modeling, the following study aims at investigating the added value (AV) of a suite of RCMs over their respective forcings that is, GCMs in simulating Indian summer monsoon (ISM) features. These RCM simulations are part of Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment- South Asia (CORDEX-SA) initiative. To evaluate the AV, the skill of RCMs and their respective parent GCMs is compared for the present day climate (1970–2005) against observations and reanalysis datasets with respect to different ISM characteristics- the spatial pattern of mean precipitation, the evolution of vertical shear of westerlies and the onset of ISM. The RCMs show a definite improvement over their driving GCMs in representing the chief spatial features of ISM precipitation with drastic reduction in bias over some regions in India, for example the orographic precipitation along Western Ghats is well captured by RCMs. This improvement mainly comes in the form of reduction in dry biases shown by GCMs. In terms of simulation of onset timing, a few RCMs show a marked improvement, particularly, RegCM4 driven by IPSL- CM5A- LR. The general conclusion is that the present set of CORDEX- SA RCM experiments do indeed add value to their parent GCMs for a number of characteristics associated with the ISM precipitation but this value depends on the region, the driving GCM and the specific feature of ISM under study.

Keywords: CORDEX- South Asia, Added value, RCMs, GCMs, Indian summer monsoon


A1-P-09

HowEuropeanprojectionshavechangedthrough20yearsofmulti-modelensembleprojects

OleB.Christensen,DanishMeteorologicalInstitute,Denmark

OleB.Christensen,DanishMeteorologicalInstitute,Denmark;JensHesselbjergChristensen,UniversityofCopenhagen,Denmark;MortenA.D.Larsen,MartinDrews,TechnicalUniversityof

Denmark,Denmark;MartinStendel,DanishMeteorologicalInstitute,Denmark

For more than 20 years, coordinated efforts to apply regional climate models to downscale GCM simulations for Europe have been under way. European research projects like RACCS and MERCURE in the ‘90s were first. Here, the foundation for today’s advanced worldwide CORDEX approach was laid out with some of the first coordinated multi-RCM simulation collections aiming to assess regional climate change for Europe in a robust way. The first public multi-model collection of climate change data was created in the PRUDENCE project (2001-2004). Additional coordinated efforts involving ever increasing numbers of GCMs and RCMs followed in ENSEMBLES (2004-2009) and currently CORDEX, specifically Euro-CORDEX, for the area covered during the prior projects. Simulations have increased their standard resolution from 50km (PRUDENCE) to about 12km (CORDEX EUR-11) and from time slice simulations (PRUDENCE) to transient experiments (ENSEMBLES and CORDEX); from one driving model and emission scenario (PRUDENCE) to several (Euro-CORDEX). This wealth of simulations have been used to assess and frame the potential impacts of future climate change in Europe providing a baseline change as defined by a multi-model mean change with associated uncertainties calculated from model spread in the ensemble.

Here we investigate how the overall picture of state-of-the-art regional climate change projections changed over this period of almost two decades. By scaling with global temperature change we identify robust results from the various emission scenarios having been used about the projected future European temperature and precipitation changes, which confirm the basic findings of PRUDENCE. The large-scale patterns of change show remarkable agreement across model resolution, ensemble strategy and emission scenario.

A comparison with observed European temperature and precipitation trends since 1950 shows good agreement with the simulations measured with root mean square distance, though precipitation only shows clear trends in limited areas.

With an EOF analysis in model/signal space of all simulations we quantify and discuss the patterns of main differences between the multi-model ensembles of these projects.

Keywords: Multi-model ensembles, European climate change


A1-P-10

ClimatologyandtrendofcyclonesovertheSouthAtlanticOceansimulatedbyglobalandregionalclimatemodels

EduardoMarcosdeJesus,DepartmentofAtmosphericSciences-USP,Brazil

EduardoMarcosdeJesus,DepartmentofAtmosphericSciences-USP,Brazil;RosmeridaRocha,DepartmentofAtmosphericSciences-USP,Brazil;MichelleReboita,DepartmentofAtmosphericSciences-UNIFEI-ITAJUBA,Brazil;LuizGozzo,DepartmentofAtmosphericSciences-UNESP-

BAURU,Brazil

Synoptic scale cyclones affect the weather and the climate of many regions of the globe by producing clouds, precipitation, temperature changes and intense winds. Over South Atlantic Ocean, cyclones occur throughout the year with greater frequency in austral winter. In this work, a tracking algorithm based in relative vorticity at 925 hPa is applied to identify cyclones in the present (1979-2005) and future (2020-2050, 2070-2099) climates under RCP8.5 scenario. These systems were identified in: (a) three global climate models (GCMs) of CMIP5 (HadGEM2-ES, MPI-ESM-MR and GFDL-ESM2M) and in their respective downscaling’s with the regional climate model RegCM4 (RegHad, RegMPI and RegGFDL); (b) Era-Interim reanalysis. Preliminary results show that in the present climate the models represent the cyclogenetic density over southwestern South Atlantic Ocean with similar patterns observed in Era-Interim reanalysis. However, there are some differences as: GFDL-ESM2M presents a general underestimation of the cyclogenetic density; HadGEM2-ES simulates a more intense cyclogenetic core in southern Argentina. On the other hand, the RegCM4 downscaling improves some results, for example, it decreases the cyclogenetic density in southern Argentina that is simulated by HadGEM2-ES. Models tend to overestimate the trajectory density of the cyclones in the longitudinal belt of 30o-20oW and underestimate the velocity of cyclones compared to Era-Interim with GFDL-ESM2M presenting greater underestimation. In terms of trend, at the end of the century (2070-2099) the GFDL-ESM2Mand MPI-ESM-MR project a change in the meridional location of the storm tracks region compared to the present climate, while HadGEM2-ES projects a gradual increase of the cyclones in the subtropical sector of South Atlantic. Complementary analyses of the trends are being developed.


A1-P-11

TheRegionalClimateModelevaluationsystem:AsystematicevaluationofCORDEXsimulationsusingObs4MIPs

AlexGoodman,JetPropulsionLaboratory,CaliforniaInstituteofTechnology,UnitedStates

AlexGoodman,HuikyoLee,DuaneWaliser,JetPropulsionLaboratory,CaliforniaInstituteofTechnology,UnitedStates;WilliamGutowski,IowaStateUniversity,UnitedStates

Observation-based evaluations of global climate models (GCMs) have been a key element foridentifyingsystematicmodelbiasesthatcanbetargetedformodelimprovementsandforestablishinguncertaintyassociatedwithprojectionsofglobalclimatechange.However,GCMsarelimitedintheirabilitytorepresentphysicalphenomenawhichoccuronsmaller,regionalscales,includingmanytypesof extremeweather events. In order to help facilitate projections in changes of such phenomena,simulationsfromregionalclimatemodels(RCMs)for14differentdomainsaroundtheworldarebeingprovidedbytheCoordinatedRegionalClimateDownscalingExperiment(CORDEX;www.cordex.org).However,althoughCORDEXspecifiesstandardsimulationandarchivingprotocols,thesesimulationsareconductedindependentlybyindividualresearchandmodelinggroupsrepresentingeachofthesedomainsoftenwithdifferentoutputrequirementsanddataarchivingandexchangecapabilities.Thus,withrespecttosimilareffortsusingGCMs(e.g.,theCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject,CMIP),itismoredifficulttoachieveastandardized,systematicevaluationoftheRCMsforeachdomainandacross all the CORDEX domains. Using the Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES;rcmes.jpl.nasa.gov) developed at JPL, we are developing easy to use templates for performingsystematicevaluationsofCORDEXsimulations.Resultsfromtheapplicationofanumberofevaluationmetrics(e.g.,biases,centeredRMS,andpatterncorrelations)willbeshownforavarietyofphysicalquantitiesandCORDEXdomains.Theseevaluationsareperformedusingproductsfromobs4MIPs,anactivityinitiatedbyDOEandNASA,andnowshepherdedbytheWorldClimateResearchProgram’sDataAdvisoryCouncil.Inordertofacilitatereproducibility,evaluationconfigurationsandresultsforeachCORDEXdomainarepublishedonourwebsite(rcmes.jpl.nasa.gov).

Keywords: obs4mips, Model Evaluation, RCMES


A1-P-12

ExoticUncertaintiesinNorthAmericaCORDEX

WilliamGutowski,IowaStateUniversity,UnitedStates

MelissaBukovsky,LindaMearns,RachelMcCrary,SethMcGinnis,NCAR,UnitedStatesNCAR,UnitedStates;JingGao,UniversityofDelaware,UnitedStates;BrianO’Neill,UniversityofDenver,United

States;WilliamGutowski,IowaStateUniversity,UnitedStates

AnumberofsimulationshavebeenproducedfortheNorth-AmericancomponentoftheCoordinatedRegionalDownscalingExperiment(NA-CORDEX).Thesimulationsarebasedonawiderangeofregionaland global climatemodels (RCMs andGCMs). The RCMs include:WRF, RegCM4, RCA4,HIRHAM5,CRCM5(withandwithoutnudging),andtheCanRCM4.ThedrivingGCMsinclude:MPI-ESM-LR,MPI-ESM-MR,HadGEM2-ES,GFDLESM2M,EC-EARTH,andCanESM2.TheseGCMsfullyspantheequilibriumclimatesensitivity(ECS)oftheGCMsthatmakeuptheCMIP5suiteofsimulations.Simulationshavealsobeenproducedatboth50kmand25kmandinsomecasesforbothRCP8.5andRCP4.5.

Wepresentsomeinterestinganalysisresultsandtheuncertaintiestheyaddressorcreate.Tostart,theeffectofspanningGCMECSintheNA-CORDEXensembleofprojectionswillbeillustratedandGCMsampling uncertainty will be presented. Additionally, we examine the effect of including SharedSocioeconomic Pathway (SSP)-based land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) alongwith the RCP-based green-house-gas-induced climate changes and the projection uncertainty overlooked byneglecting LULCC in traditional NA-CORDEX regional climate simulations. Time-permitting, a briefoverviewofadditionalresultsfromanongoingstudyontheroleofextratropicalcyclonesinwinterprecipitationuncertaintyovertheeast-south-centralU.S.willalsobediscussed.

Keywords: North America CORDEX, Exotic uncertainties


A1-P-13

ClimatechangeprojectionsinRegCMCORDEX-COREsimulationsviaKoeppen-Trewarthaclimateclassification

TomasHalenka,CharlesUniversity,CzechRepublic

TomasHalenka,MichalBelda,CharlesUniversity,CzechRepublic;RegCMCORDEX-COREteam,ICTPetal.

The analysis of climate patterns can be performed for each climatic variable separately or the data can be aggregated using e.g. a kind of climate classification. The advantage of such a method, in our case Koeppen-Trewartha classification, is putting together the most important variables, i.e. temperature and precipitation, considering not only annual means, but through monthly values the annual course as well. These classifications usually correspond to vegetation distribution in the sense that each climate type is dominated by one vegetation zone or eco-region. This way climate classifications also represent a convenient tool for the assessment and validation of climate models and for the analysis of simulated future climate changes.

The RegCM results of CORDEX-CORE experiments over nine CORDEX domains are analysed using selected CMIP5 simulations (mostly HadGEM, MPI and NorESM) driving the RegCM. Validation based on ERA-Interim driven runs compared to CRU database (E-OBS for higher resolution in Europe) shows some systematic biases in different types. Through the analysis of the control experiments together with the performance of driving GCMs we can assess the sources of the biases in present conditions as well as to see the added value, which comes mainly from the better description of topography in higher resolution and thus appearance of mountaineous tundra type, as well as bettter representation of coastal region and thus separating maritime and continental subtypes. Finally, for two scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 we show the projections of the individual types‘ area changes, individual transformations of types or their shifts in CORDEX domains (e.g. decrease of boreal and tundra type area, their shift to the higher latitudes and altitudes, increase of temperate climate, deserts, savana, more significant for RCP8.5). We compare the changes with the signal of climate change for driving GCMs to identify the added value of higher resolution RCM simulations.

Keywords: Koeppen-Trewartha climate classification, climate change projections, CORDEX-CORE experiment


A1-P-14

PerformanceevaluationofallsubsetsfromtheCMIP5multimodelensembleusedineachCORDEXregion:Representationofthepresentclimateand

uncertaintyrangeofclimatechangeprojections

RuiIto,JapanMeteorologicalBusinessSupportCenter,Japan

RuiIto,JapanMeteorologicalBusinessSupportCenter,Japan;HideoShiogama,NationalInstituteforEnvironmentalStudies,Japan;TosiyukiNakaegawa,IzuruTakayabu,MeteorologicalResearch

Institute,JapanMeteorologicalAgency,Japan

Region-specific subsets selected from the full set of CMIP5 multimodel ensemble have been used in CORDEX. Do the subsets have enough ability to represent the observed climatological state, and project a consistent tendency of the climate change with the full set? How extent do the subsets capture the uncertainty in the projections by the full set? To provide increased credibility for the scientific outcomes by answering these questions, we evaluated the performance of all subsets used in CORDEX. Regarding the climate change projection, compared with the possible subsets generated using 10,000 random samples, we investigated whether the subsets showed higher coverage of the uncertainty than the others when using the same sample size. The spreads of the biases and Taylor’s skill scores obtained from the CORDEX subsets extend beyond the spread from high performed 24 models of the full set for the regional means of temperature and precipitation. Therefore, despite using models that performed acceptably, a subset exists that would have less biases than the current subsets. Compared with the random samples, CORDEX uses subsets with low coverage of the uncertainty range from the full set for the temperature change in the regions where more models are used. On the other hand, for the precipitation change the coverage is lower than that from the random samples in half of the regions. However, in the regions that used nine models or more, good coverage (>50%) is evident for the projections of both temperature and precipitation. Therefore, the subsets can a relative-widely cover the uncertainties, but it depends on the number of models used. In contrast to the subsets used in CORDEX, we also conducted the evaluation on a globally consistent model subset consisting of four models used in ISIMIP. As the result, the subset indicates difficulty in capturing uncertainties in the regional precipitation change with widely covering that in the temperature.

Keywords: Performance evaluation, Uncertainty range, Model subset


A1-P-15

AssessmentoffutureclimatechangeoverIndiaandHinduKushHimalayanregionsusingCORDEXSouthAsiaRegionalClimateModelprojections

SanjayJayanarayanan,CentreforClimateChangeResearch,IndianInstituteofTropicalMeteorology,Pune,India

SanjayJayanarayanan,KhirshnanRaghavan,RamaraoM.V.S.,MaheshRamdoss,SandipIngleCentreforClimateChangeResearch,IndianInstituteofTropicalMeteorology,Pune,India

The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) regional activity Coordinated Regional ClimateDownscalingExperiment(CORDEX)providedanensembleofhighresolution(50km)regionalclimatechangeprojectionsforSouthAsia.Thesefutureprojectionsofclimatetilltheendof21stcenturyweredevelopedbydynamicaldownscalingmethodsusing regional climatemodels (RCMs) forcedwithasubsetofglobalclimatemodels(GCMs)thatcontributedtothefifthphaseoftheWCRPCoupledModelIntercomparison Project (CMIP5). TheCORDEX initiative provided anopportunity for assessing therangeofuncertainties in regional climatechangewithinSouthAsiaassociatedwithvarying forcingfrom the CMIP5 GCMs and the future greenhouse gas scenarios based on three representativeconcentrationpathways (RCPs),and fromtheuseofmultipleRCMs.The interimreportonclimatechangeoverIndiareleasedbytheGovernmentofIndiainmid2017foundthattheCORDEXSouthAsiaRCMensemblebasedfutureprojectionswereusefultobetterquantifytheregionalclimatechangeuncertainties in thenear-surfaceair temperature,precipitation, and inextremeevents. TheHinduKushHimalayan (HKH)MonitoringandAssessmentProgramme(HIMAP) reportcoordinatedby theInternational Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) assessed the future climatechangesignalinseasonalmeantemperatureandprecipitationovertheHKHregionusinganensembleofCMIP5GCMsandCORDEXSouthAsiaRCMs.ThispresentationwillprovideanoverviewofthemainfindingsinthesefutureclimatechangeassessmentsovertheSouthAsiaregion.

Keywords: CORDEX South Asia, India, Hindu Kush Himalaya


A1-P-16

ProjectedchangesintherelationshipbetweenPrecipitation,AfricanEasterlyJetandAfricanEasterlyWavesunderglobalWarming

IbourahimaKebe,WASCAL,BurkinaFaso

AnensembleofregionalclimateanalysisprojectionsiscarriedoutwithTheoreticalPhysicsRegionalClimateModel (RegCM4)overWestAfricandomain. TheRegCM4 isdrivenby threeCMIP5GlobalClimateModels(GCMs)undertwogreenhousegasconcentrationpathwayssuchasRCP8.5andRCP4.5toassessregionalchangesintemperature,precipitationandWestAfricanMonsoon(WAM)dynamicalfeatures.Inparticular,weexamineandinter-comparethemodelsperformancewiththeirsensemble-meaninsimulatingthemeanclimatologyandtheresponseofAfricanEasterlyJet(AEJ)andAfricanEasterlyWaves(AEWs)toincreasinggreenhousegasconcentrationsbytheendofthe21stcentury.ThecovarianceanalysisisusedtoinvestigatethenatureoftherelationshipbetweenWAMfeaturesandprecipitation.Usinganensembleofregionalclimatemodels,muchofmodelsimulationsprojectawidespreadchangeofprecipitationassociatedwithdecreasedofAEJ(intermoflocationandintensity)and AEWs activity in the 2–10 days period and affecting their relationship. The seasonal meanprecipitationeventsdecreaseinthefuturescenarioswithlargestandmoreextensivedryingconditionover the Sahel and wetter condition over the Gulf of Guinea while some models project a drierconditionalongthebothregion.Thisdryconditiondelayedtheonsetoftherainyseason,anticipatedtheretreatoftherainbeltandreducingandstrengtheningoftheIntertropicalConvergenceZone(ITCZ)band.Thechangeisconsistent inallglobalandregionalmodelprojections,althoughwithdifferentspatialdetail.TheresultssuggestedthatchangesinAEJandAEWcharacteristicscouldplayacriticalroleinshapingtheresponseofWAMtoelevatinganthropogenicgreenhousegas(GHG)forcing.

Keywords: Monsoon precipitation, Regional climate models, Circulation dynamics


A1-P-17

Multi-resolutioninvestigationoflongtermregional/localtrendsintemperatureandprecipitationfromobservationsand

NA-CORDEXregionalclimatesimulations

HuikyoLee,JetPropulsionLaboratory,Caltech,UnitedStates

HuikyoLee,KrzysztofGorski,AlexanderGoodman,DuaneWaliser,JetPropulsionLaboratory,Caltech,UnitedStates

Assessment of long-term temperature and precipitation trends is one of the most fundamental tasks for studying climate change. While the global temperature on Earth has significantly increased in the last several decades, regional trends in temperature and precipitation are not spatially uniform. Using the Global Historical Climatology Network monthly observations and regional climate models (RCMs) that participated in the North America CORDEX (NA-CORDEX) program, we investigated the spatial variability of the temperature, precipitation, and their long term trends over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using the Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES). RCMES is an open source software suite developed jointly by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the University of California, Los Angeles. RCMES facilitates multi-model, multi-variate evaluation over any CORDEX domain using ground-based observation and NASA remote sensing datasets. The recent development of RCMES includes the hierarchical data analyzer that can show the added value of high-resolution datasets from observations and models. Our analysis of observations indicates that using temperature and precipitation observations whose spatial resolution is finer than 50 km is important in studying their temporal trends. However, NA-CORDEX RCM simulations forced by ERA-interim reanalysis data do not show expected performance in simulating the spatial structures in observed temperature and precipitation trends. Specifically, the simulated trends do not represent the fine-scale variability, which is important for supporting decisions and management plans to address the impacts of regional climate change.

Keywords: Added value of high resolution RCMs, temperature and precipitation trends, North America CORDEX


A1-P-18

TenyearsofCORDEX-areview

ChrisLennard,UniversityofCapeTown,SouthAfrica

ChrisLennard,andCORDEXSATUniversityofCapeTown,SouthAfrica

TheCoordinatedRegionalDownscalingExperiment(CORDEX)entereditstenthyearin2019andthispaper reviews the impactofCORDEX in the scientific peer-reviewed literature.We investigate theuptakeofCORDEXdata inpeer-reviewedarticlesandquantify thegeographyof thepapers (whichregion are the papers reporting on), inwhich scientific community the papers belong to (climate,health,energy,etc.),whatproportionofCORDEXworkisopenaccessandreportontheinclusionofCORDEX literature in the IPCC assessment cycles. A particular assessment of the climate scienceliteraturequantifiesthenumberofstudieswiththemesincludingextremeevents,addedvalueanddetection-attribution.WealsoattempttoreportonhowCORDEXdataisusedinpost-graduatestudiesand in government white papers or reports line National Adaptation Plans.We concludewith anassessmentofhowCORDEXactivitiesalignwiththeWCRPstrategicplanandprogrammeswithintheWCRPandmakesomesuggestionsaboutthis.

Keywords: CORDEX, Review paper


A1-P-19

InvestigatingseasurfacetemperaturerepresentationanditspotentialinfluenceinSEACLID/CORDEX-SoutheastAsiaregionalclimatesimulations

GemmaTeresaNarisma,RegionalClimateSystemsLaboratory,ManilaObservatory;AtmosphericScienceProgram,PhysicsDepartment,SchoolofScienceandEngineering,AteneodeManila

University,Philippines

AngelaMoninaMagnaye,GemmaTeresaNarisma,FayeAbigailCru,RegionalClimateSystemsLaboratory,ManilaObservatory,Philippines;FredolinTangang,NationalUniversityofMalaysia,Malaysia;LiewJuneng,NationalUniversityofMalaysia,Malaysia;ThanhNgo-Duc,DepartmentofSpaceandAeronautics,UniversityofScienceandTechnologyofHanoi,VietnamAcademyofScience

andTechnology,Vietnam;TanPhan-Van,VNUUniversityofScience,Vietnam;JerasornSantisirisomboon,RamkhamhaengUniversityCenterofRegionalClimateChangeandRenewableEnergy(RU-CORE),Thailand;PatamaSinghruck,DepartmentofMarineScience,FacultyofScience,ChulalongkornUniversity,Thailand;DodoGunawan,CenterforClimateChangeInformation,Agency

forMeteorologyClimatologyandGeophysics(BMKG),Indonesia;EdvinAldrian,AgencyfortheAssessmentandApplicationofTechnology(BPPT),Indonesia

SeaSurfaceTemperature(SST)characteristicsanditsregionalinfluencemaynotbewellrepresentedinclimatemodelsand thesecanresult tobiases in thedownscaledclimateoutput.SoutheastAsiaRegional Climate Downscaling (SEACLID)/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment –SoutheastAsia(CORDEX-SEA)historicalclimatesimulationsshowedbiasesintemperatureandrainfall.ThisstudyexaminesSSTrepresentationinclimatemodelstoinvestigatewhetherthiscanpotentiallycontributetotheresultingmodelbiases.Thisisdoneby:a)describingthehistoricalSSToverSoutheastAsia (SEA) fromobservations in termsof spatialpatternsand temporalvariability;b)analyzing theCoupledModelIntercomparisonProjectPhase5(CMIP5)GlobalClimateModel(GCM)representationofSSToverSEAanditspotentialinfluenceonmodeledclimateoverthePhilippines;andc)assessingthepossibleeffectofSSTrepresentationinCMIP5GCMsonthedownscaledregionalclimateoutput.ResultsshowthatfourGCMsthatbestrepresentSSTsalsohavegoodrepresentationofGCMmodelclimate.ParticularGCMsthatdonotrepresentSSTwellalsoproduceclimatesimulationsthatarefarfromobserveddata.TherearealsoGCMsthatdonotshowanystatisticalrelationshipbetweenSSTrepresentationandtheresultingclimatesimulation.OverregionsofSouthwestMonsoon influenceincludingSouthChinaSeawheretheSSTseasonalvariabilityiscapturedwell,temperature,rainfall,moisture, andwind speed are also adequately represented by themodels. Results suggested thatnegativebiasesinlandtemperature,andpositivebiasesinprecipitationandwindspeed,inbothglobalandregionalclimatemodels,areassociatedwithnegativemodelbiasesinSST.FindingsgiveabetterunderstandingonhowSSTpotentiallyinfluencesmodeledclimatologyinSEAandcanhelpimproveregionalclimatemodelsforbetterfutureclimateprojectionsusedforadaptationandimpactstudies.

Keywords: regional climate modeling, climate variability, CORDEX-SEA, sea surface temperature


A1-P-20

AssessingthevalueofclimateinformationforlocalgovernmentofficialsinSouthAfrica

MiriamMurambadoro,CSIR/WitwatersrandUniversity,SouthAfrica

A significant amount of work has been done by national as well as international academic, research and other institutions to produce climate change information that intended to support decision making and planning. This includes the work by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at international level and the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research and the Climate Systems Analysis Group at the national level. However, it is anticipated in the traditional way of producing knowledge that when CORDEX data is generated and disseminated the targeted users will automatically start using it but this is not always the case. In an effort to understand the factors that are required to support uptake of climate change information in South Africa, this study uses two municipalities in South Africa namely Capricorn District Municipality in Limpopo and Amathole District Municipality in the Eastern Cape. The two provinces are considered to be amongst the most vulnerable to climate change in South Africa as a result of socioeconomic drivers such as poverty, dependence on primary economic sectors such as agriculture and high levels of unemployment.

Participatory methods were used to engage decision makers in the two municipalities who are involved in climate change and air quality management. The study found that knowledge about climate change risks and adaptation has improved amongst local government officials. This is a result of national efforts through programmes such as the South African Risk and Vulnerability Atlas and the Department of Environmental Affairs Local Government Climate Change Support Programme. Research and academic institutions in South Africa have been able to provide down-scaled projections that have informed the development of adaptation strategies at local level. However, there is still need for local government focused climate change products other than projections that can address the usability gaps. Other barriers to use of climate change information include issues relating to communication, accessibility, relevance and limited capacity of users to interpret information in projections and implement in different sectors. The study also found that decision making at local government is not easily influenced by the provision of information, tools and frameworks as other factors play a role and need to be acknowledged as part of that system.

Decisions to act on adaptation are often blocked by institutional and psychological factors especially on difficult, transformational and long lifetime decisions. There is also pressure amongst individuals and groups especially when worldviews/values between the scientists and non-scientific community are different. Further to this, uptake of climate information at municipal level is also affected by the level of top down management, control risk management and local self-organised adaptation. District municipalities in South Africa are responsible for key service delivery areas such as water, sanitation, electricity, municipal health services and other district-wide functions for the municipalities in the district. Human and financial resources at these district as well as their local municipalities are often under-resourced and struggle to integrate climate change with other service delivery activities. These constraints help in understanding the instances where climate change information is available to inform potential climate change impacts and responses but the decisions taken on what and how actions are implemented do not always match the recommendations from science (Adger et.al., 2007).

There are increasing calls for co-production and co-implementation of knowledge to enhance the value and use of scientific information including climate information. However, there is need to acknowledge

that institutions such as local governments are complex systems whereby multiple actors play a key role in decision making while the institutions regulations and culture; technology; individual identity and values among other factors influence the adaptation activity space (Pelling et.al.,2014). As such, knowledge producers need to find the different entry points and packaging options for climate change information to meet the different expectations that decision makers at local government as they use information in different ways. Further to this local government officials need guidance on the use and limitations of CORDEX data in the different sectors that they operate in. To conclude, the study recommends that information needs and support for local governments need to be ongoing process as adaptation is an continuous learning process that needs regular monitoring to meet the changing needs/values.

Keywords: climate information, local government, South Africa, adaptation


A1-P-21

ClimateanalogandfutureappearanceofnovelclimateinSoutheastAsia

TuyetNguyen-Thi,VietnamInstituteforDevelopmentStrategies,MinistryofPlanningandInvestment,Vietnam

TuyetNguyen-Thi,VietnamInstituteforDevelopmentStrategies,MinistryofPlanningandInvestment,Vietnam;ThanhNgo-Duc,DepartmentofSpaceandAeronautics,UniversityofScience

andTechnologyofHanoi,VietnamAcademyofScienceandTechnology,Vietnam;FredolinT.Tangang,CentreforEarthSciencesandEnvironment,FacultyofScienceandTechnology,UniversitiKebangsaanMalaysia,Malaysia;LiewJuneng,CentreforEarthSciencesandEnvironment,FacultyofScienceandTechnology,UniversitiKebangsaanMalaysia,Malaysia;JerasornSantisirisomboon,RamkhamhaengUniversityCenterofRegionalClimateChangeandRenewableEnergy(RU-CORE),RamkhamhaengUniversity,Thailand;FayeCruz,RegionalClimateSystemsLaboratory,Manila

Observatory,Philippines;EdvinAldrian,AgencyfortheAssessmentandApplicationofTechnology(BPPT),Indonesia;GemmaNarisma,RegionalClimateSystemsLaboratory,ManilaObservatory,

Philippines

Thisstudyidentifiedtheanaloglocationsoffivebigcitiesandthefutureappearanceofnovelclimatein Southeast Asia (SEA) at the end of the 21st century under the Representative ConcentrationPathways8.5 (RCP8.5)and4.5 (RCP4.5)scenarios.Amodifiedversionofanexisting formulationtoestimateclimatedistanceisintroduced,usingthemonthlymeansoftemperatureandprecipitationfromsixregionalclimateexperimentsandfromsixglobalclimatemodels(GCM).ResultsshowedthatregionaldownscalingallowedamoreaccuraterepresentationoftemperaturebutdisplayedahighervariabilityinrainfalloverSEAcomparedtothoseoftheGCMs.Theensemblemean(ENS)experimenthad a relatively better performance compared to each individual experiment in representing themonthlytimeseriesoftemperatureandprecipitation.Thecommontendencyofclimaticrelocationtowardswarmer regions for the five big cities in SEA (Hanoi, Bangkok,Manila, Kuala Lumpur andJakarta)wasprominentwiththeregionalENSexperiment.Attheendofthe21stcentury,theratioofnovelclimateareasoverSEA,mainlylocatedinlowelevation,coastal,equatorialregionsandislands,waslessthan2%underRCP4.5andincreasedto24%and21%underRCP8.5fortheensembleregionalandglobalexperiments,respectively.

Keywords: climate analog, novel climate, regional climate model, CORDEX-SEA


A1-P-22

OnthesensitivityofseasonalanddiurnalprecipitationtocumulusparameterizationoverCORDEX-EA-II

XiaoruiNiu,NanjingUniversity,China

XiaoruiNiu,JianpingTang,ShuyuWang,NanjingUniversity

The ability of theWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF)model in simulating the seasonal anddiurnal cycles of rainfall over the Coordinated Regional ClimateDownscaling Experiment East AsiaPhaseII(CORDEX-EA-II)domainisvalidatedagainsttheTropicalRainfallMeasuringMission(TRMM)datasets.Afocusisplacedontheroleofconvectiveparameterization(CP)schemes.Asetofnumericalexperimentsata25kmresolutionfor1998-2009,usingsixdifferentCPs,isperformedtoevaluatethephysic-dependencyofresults.AllCPssimulaterealisticsummermeanprecipitationanditsnorthwardpropagation,withthebestperformanceintheSimplifiedArakawa-Schubert(SAS).Thebiasesintheseasonalmarchofrainfallarerelatedtothedeficiencyinsimulatedlow-levelwindsandthenorthwardpropagationofthecyclonicvorticity.ThesimulatedearlierpeaktimeinotherCPsisdelayedbyabout1-2hoursbytheKain-Fritschwithamodifiedtriggerfunction(KFMT),althoughthisschemeshowsadisadvantageinthemagnitude.TheperformanceofdifferentCPsinsimulatingdiurnalrainfallcyclesisdependentonregions,andnoneofthemperformsbetterthantheothersforallsub-regions.Theinitiationofsimulatedconvectionisweaklyphysic-dependent.However,thetimingandmagnitudeofstratiformprecipitationdifferamongthesixsimulations.AfurtheranalysisshowsthatthedrybiasesoverthelowerYangtzeRiverbasinarearesultoftheweakenedsouthwesterlywatervaportransport,while theexcessiveafternoonrainfall in theKain-Fritsch (KF)simulation isattributedto the largestpositive perturbation in the lower level atmosphere, especially the enhanced vertical transport ofhumidity.

Keywords: Regional climate model, convective parameterization schemes, precipitation


A1-P-23

ThepotentialofCORDEXtocapturelongtermextremeeventsoverGuineaCoast

FrancisNkrumah,UniversityofCapeCoast,Ghana

FrancisNkrumah,NanaAmaBrowneKlutse,UniversityofCapeCoast,Ghana

Weanalyzetheperformanceofagroupofsixregionalclimatemodels(RCMs)alongwiththeensemblemeanoftheirstatisticsinsimulatinglongtermextremeeventsindailyprecipitationandtemperatureoverGuineaCoastfortheperiodof1961–2005.Themodelsarerunat45kmgridintervalandisdrivenby GCM reanalysis lateral boundary conditions. A comparison made with observation datademonstrates that the model performs reasonably well in simulating the frequency of dailyprecipitation events as well as the precipitation intensities, with the exception of the highlands.Substantial differences are observed among the RCMswhich are attributed to the wide range ofestimatesofhigh-orderstatisticslikefrequency,intensityandtheconvectiveschemesemployed.ThisisattributedmainlytotherelativelycoarserepresentationoftopographyacrosstheareaoftheGuineaCoastandthehighvariabilityintheprecipitationpatternovertheregion.Themodelunderestimatesdailymaximumtemperatureinthewarmerseasons.Theperformanceofthemodelimprovesinthesimulationofdailyminimumtemperature. Inorder toapplyCORDEX to the simulationofextremeeventsoverthecomplexterrainforGuineaCoast,itisrecommendedthatahigherresolutionisusedin order to better describe the topography of the Guinea Coast and that the daily maximumtemperaturebiasisreduced.

Keywords: Cordex, Guinea Coast, extreme


A1-P-24

VariabilityandtrendsofatmosphericmoistureinrecentWestAfricanmonsoonseasonandtheCORDEX-Africaprojected21stcenturyscenarios

UgochukwuOkoro,ImoStateUniversity,AtmosphericPhysicsGroup,DepartmentofPhysics,Owerri,Nigeria

UgochukwuOkoro,ImoStateUniversity,AtmosphericPhysicsGroup,DepartmentofPhysics,P.M.B.2000,Owerri,Nigeria.,Nigeria;WenChen,InstituteofAtmosphericPhysics,CenterforMonsoonSystemResearch,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Beijing100029,China.,China;DebashisNath,

InstituteofAtmosphericPhysics,CenterforMonsoonSystemResearch,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Beijing100029,China.,China;HyacinthNnamchi,GEOMAR|HelmholtzCentreforOceanResearch

Kiel,DüsternbrookerWeg20,24105Kiel,Germany.,Germany

Theinterannualvariabilityandtrendsofatmosphericmoisturefluxconvergence(MFC)andthefluxtransportandtheirrolesinwetseasonrainfallvariabilityduringtheWestAfricamonsoonhavebeeninvestigated using the Climate Research Unit observational datasets and the National Center forEnvironmentalPredictionreanalysis2from1979to2016,andtheCoordinatedRegionalDownscalingExperiment(CORDEX)-Africamodeloutputs.Particularemphasishasbeenplacedonthethreerainfallzones:theWesternSudanoSahel,theEasternSudanoSahelandtheGuineaCoast.TheMFCshowslargestvariabilityandimpactonrainfallintheWesternSudanoSahel,followedbytheGuineaCoast,but there is no significant impact in theEastern SudanoSahel. TheMFC shows significantpositivetrendsattheSahelianlocationsbutnotattheGuineaCoast.TheCORDEX-AfricamodelsadequatelysimulatetheclimatologyandspatialpatternsofthemeanJunetoSeptemberatmosphericmoisture;however,differencesexist in themagnitudeandsignsof thetemporal trend.Themodelensemblemeanispresented,whichbetterrepresentstheatmosphericmoistureduringWAMrainfallvariability.Ameanbias-correctedprojectionoftheatmosphericmoistureshowsaconsistentenhancedvariabilityoftheGuineaCoastintheRCP4.5andRCP8.5attheendofthe21stcentury.

Keywords: West African monsoon, CORDEX-Africa, atmospheric moisture, rainfall, variability


A1-P-25

Howimportantistheclimatechangesignatureininputstohydrologicalmodelsin2050and2100?

JustinPeter,AustralianBureauofMeteorology,Australia

JustinPeter,PandoraHope,ElisabethVogel,LouiseWilson,WendySharplesChantalDonnelly,AustralianBureauofMeteorology,Australia

Developingprojections ofAustralia-widehydrological variables canbe approached in a numberofdifferentways.Earlierefforts (ISI-MIP:Hempeletal.2013;Victoria:Hopeetal.2017;Potteretal.2018)haveusedanensembleofopportunity,basedupontheavailabilityofclimatemodelsimulations,downscaleddataandrelevantvariablesrequiredtorunhydrologicalmodels.Insomecasesrelativelysimplestatisticalshiftsinthemeanwereappliedtorepresenttheclimatechangesignal.However,formanyvariablesimportanttohydrology(precipitation,temperature,windandradiation),changesduetoanthropogenicclimatechangecannotbeexpressedasasimpleshift inthemean.Thetailsandshapeofthedistributionmightalsobeexpectedtochange.Inthiswork,weaimtoretainasmuchoftheinformationaboutthemodelledshiftinthefulldistributionaspossible,withintheconstraintsofprovidinginputstooff-linehydrologicalmodels.Inthispresentationweoutlinethechangesimulatedbyclimatemodelsrelevanttokeyvariablesforhydrologicalprojectionsanddetailtherangeofbias-correctionmethods thatcanaccount for their inter-relationships.Theseresultswill thenguideourchoice of bias correction and downscaling methods to be used in the Bureau of Meteorology'shydrologicalprojectionsproject.

Keywords: Bias correction, Downscaling, Hydrological modelling


A1-P-26

Inter-comparisonoftemperaturetrendsinCORDEXmodelsandCMIP5models

IzidinePinto,UniversityofCapeTown,SouthAfrica

IzidinePinto,ChristopherJack,BruceHewitson,UniversityofCapeTown,SouthAfrica

Temperature trends is an important parameter to measure the state of climate. And it providesevidenceofgreenhousegases(GHG)impact.Thedatausedintheestimationoftemperaturetrendsincludebutnotlimitedtometeorologicalstationdata,satelliteobservationsandmodeldatasuchasreanalysisproducts.Globalclimatemodels(GCMs)andregionalclimatemodels(RCMs)aretoolsusedtoinvestigatingpotentialchangesinthefutureclimate.However,projectionsfromRCMsandGCMscandiffer,particularlyinthecaseofrainfall.TogainmoreconfidenceinbothGCMsandRCMsclimateprojectionsisimportantfirstoanalysehowtrendsarecapturedinthepastclimate.YetsuchanalysisusingasuitofGCMsandRCMshasn’tbeendoneoversouthernAfrica.HerewecomparetrendsintheCoordinatedRegionalClimateModelsExperiment(CORDEX)regionalclimatemodelsandthedrivingboundaryconditionsfromCMIP5tocheckforconsistencyorlackofit.Furthermore,themechanismsdriving these trends are also explored in order to provide robustmessage for decisionmaking. IngeneralthespreadintemperaturetrendsbetweendifferentRCMsforcedbythesameGCM(boundarycondition)issmallcomparedtothespreadduetothedifferenceinGCMboundarycondition.Thereistypically greater warming over the sub-continent than surrounding oceans, but models showsubstantialdifferences in regionaldetailwithinthisbroadpattern. Themodelprojectionsanalysedhereindicateastrongagreementforincreased(summertime)surfaceairtemperaturesoversouthernAfricaoverthecentury.Thecontinentalheatlowwasidentifiedasthemainmodeofvariabilityandinfluencingthesestrends.

Keywords: Temperature trends, southern Africa, models


A1-P-27

Assessmentofthe CORDEX-AtlasAfricasimulationsadded valueanduncertaintyofthe climate changesignal

FrancescaRaffaele,The AbdusSalamInternationalCentre for Theoretical Physics(ICTP)

FrancescaRaffaele,ErikaCoppola,SabinaAbbaOmar,Filippo Giorgi, The AbdusSalamInternationalCentre for Theoretical Physics(ICTP)

Withinthe CORDEX-Atlaseffort, RegCM4hasbeen used to downscale 3GCMs(HadGEM-ES,MPIandNorESM)over the Africandomain for the twoscenarios RCP2.6and RCP8.5with aresolutionof 25 km.TheCORDEXAfrica domainhasbeen also the central domainof the previousCORDEXPhase1experiment,therefore there are available many regionalclimate modelsimulationsforthe samescenarios at the lower resolution(50 km).

Theaim of thiswork istoputthe new CORDEX-Atlas projectionsin the contextof theavailableliterature.

Theadded value of the new high-resolutionsimulationsisassessedfor both mean climateandextreme over specificclimatic regions for sub-daily to interannual timescales.

In addition,mean temperatureandprecipitationchange,togetherwith the change of extremetemperatureand precipitationindexes arecomputedfor the mid and far future timeslicesforboth 25and50kmsimulations.

Keyword:CORDEX-Africa,CORDEX-CORE


A1-P-28

ApplicationofthequantilemapingandprobabilitydensityfunctionsapproachusingCORDEXdatafordroughtandfloodfrequenciesinPakistan

GhulamRasul,ICIMOD,Pakistan

Abstract:StatisticalDownscalingfromtheglobaltotheregionalscalesalwaysleaveuncertaintiesduetothelackoffineresolutionclimatedataincorporatedatthelocalscale.Toovercomethisdifficultyup to some extent, the quantilemapping (QM) approach based on observed data collected frommeteorological stations were incorporated to remove the systematic biases in the regional scalesimulationsof theCORDEXSouthAsiadata formaximumtemperature,minimumtemperatureandprecipitation.Duetothelimitedcomputationalcapacityofclimatecluster,thedomainsizewaskepttocoverPakistanareaonly.Theoutputofthesimulationsonallthethreeselectedparameterswasmodelledintoprobabilitydensityfunctions(PDFs)toindicatetheanomaliesofthebaselineclimatepatterns invariousstatisticalmomentsfortemperature,the lowestandhighestextremeswhileforprecipitation, the driest and thewettest. The PDF-based analysis of the thermal regime identifiednegatively skewedpatterns in projected temperatures as compared to the baseline patternwhichforcedshiftingofpercentilesandmeans largely towardsextremehighsand relatively showing lessimpactonlows.However,thePDF-basedanalysisforprecipitationproducedlowerkurtoticvalueswithfatterandlongertailsintheprojectedamountsascomparedtobaselinewhichareindicatinghigherfrequenciesofthedryandwetextremestooccurinfuture.BoththefloodandthedroughtfrequenciesareinthematchingcontrastinthePDF-basedoutput.

Keywords: CORDEX, Probability Density Functions, Statistical Downscaling, Drought and Flood ,Uncertainties


A1-P-29

AssessmentoffuturecyclonesactivityintheCORDEXSouthernHemispheredomainsfollowingaMulti-ModelEnsembleapproach

MichelleReboita,UniversidadeFederaldeItajubá,Brazil

MichelleReboita,UniversidadeFederaldeItajubá,Brazil;MarcoReale,AbdusSalamICTP,Trieste,Italy;RegCM4CORDEX-CORETeam,AbdusSalamICTP,Trieste,Italy

ThisworkaimsatanalyzingpresentandfuturecycloneactivityinthreeCORDEXSouthernHemispheredomains(SouthAmerica,AfricaandAustralia)usinganensembleofsimulationsbasedontheRegionalClimateModel(RegCM4)systemdrivenbyglobalclimatemodels(GCMs)HadGEM2-ES,MPI-ESM-MRandNOR-ESM1-M.RegCM4hasahorizontalresolutionof22kmandusestheCommunityLandModel(CLM4.5) as scheme for the land surface processes. The analysis includes both extratropical andsubtropicalcycloneswhichhavebeenidentifiedusinganobjectiveprocedurebasedonthenearest-neighborapproachonmeansealevelpressuregriddedfieldsproducedbythesimulations.Historicalperiod (1995-2014)of the simulationswerevalidated throughcomparisonsERA-Interim reanalysis.RegCM4simulatesacyclonefrequencymoresimilartothereanalysisthanGCMsensemble.Resultingstormtracksandcyclonefeaturesfortheperiod2080-2099(basedonRCP8.5scenario)inRegCM4andGCMshavebeencomparedwiththoseofthehistoricalperiod(1995-2014).BothGCMsandRegCM4ensembleshowinthefutureadecreaseinthecyclonefrequencyoverSouthAmericaandAustraliadomains.No significant changeshavebeen identified in the cyclone intensityover SouthAmerica,whileforAustraliaaslightdecreaseintheintensityofthesystemshasbeenfound.SimulationsforAfricaarestillinprocessing.

Keywords: cyclones, climate projections, CORDEX domains


A1-P-30

PotentialfutureclimateregimesbasedonanensembleofCORDEX-COREsimulationsusingREMO

ArmelleRecaRemedio,ClimateServiceCenterGermany(GERICS),Helmholtz-ZentrumGeesthacht,Germany

ArmelleRecaRemedio,ClaasTeichmann,DianaRechid,KevinSieck,TorstenWeber,PeterHoffman,LolaKotova,LarsBuntemeyer,SusannePfeifer,ChristineNam,DanielaJacob,Climate

ServiceCenterGermany(GERICS),Helmholtz-ZentrumGeesthacht,Germany

Based on the IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 degree C above pre-industrial levels, the temperature extremes on land are projected to warm more than the observed monthly global mean near-surface temperature with high confidence. The potential impacts of this significant climate change vary regionally as such that in most land regions, the current climate conditions would probably shift to a different climate regime. In this study, we are investigating how the regional climate zones of ten CORDEX regions will potentially shift in dynamically downscaled high-resolution projections forced by selected global climate models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (low- and high-end scenario). The high resolution climate change simulations from the regional climate model REMO are a part of the WCRP Initiative on CORDEX Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluation (CORDEX-CORE) Framework.

The latest version of the regional climate model REMO, which is developed and maintained at the Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), was used to simulate the present and future climate of ten out of the fourteen CORDEX Domains: Europe, South America, Central America, North America, Africa, South Asia (formerly called West Asia), Australasia, East Asia, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia. Following the CORDEX-CORE setup, the model was run on a spatial resolution of 0.22◦ (about 25 km) with 27 hybrid vertical levels. The CORDEX-CORE simulations are composed of ERA-Interim-driven simulations for the evaluation period from 1979 to 2017, and GCM-driven simulations for the historical time period from 1950 to 2005 as well as for the two RCPs scenarios, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, each for the time period 2006-2100 driven by three GCMs (MPI-ESM-LR, HadGEM2, and NorESM).

For the evaluation period, the mean precipitation and temperature biases were analysed using the latest CRU version TS 4.02 during the evaluation period (1981 to 2010). The climate zones were defined based on the fourteen climate types from the Koeppen-Trewartha Climate Classification. We will investigate how the fourteen climate zones are projected to vary in the futur. In addition, we will identify how the population of the regions might be exposed to the changes in the climate zones.

Keywords: future climate regimes, CORDEX CORE, Koeppen-Trewarth Climate Classification


A1-P-31

Modellingpotentialimpactsoffutureclimateonbarley(HordeumvulgareL.)productivityineasternTigray,northernEthiopia

DamascoRubangakene,MekelleUniversity,Ethiopia

DamascoRubangakene,AtkiltGirma,MekelleUniversity,Ethiopia

Crop growth and productivity is principally a function of temperature if water is available to the ideal satisfaction. The objective of this research was to analyze the future climate of the study area and simulate the potential impacts of climate change on barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) productivity. The climate prediction was made from NT up to the end of the century (NT=near term (2010-2039) MT=midterm (2040-2069) and ET=end term (2070-2099)) using two Representative concentration pathways (RCP: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and 20 Global Circulation Models (GCM’s). To capture the uncertainties in prediction associated with inter-model differences and model parameter assumptions, only under and over predicting GCMs were selected and used. Barley productivity under future climate was simulated using APSIM after thorough calibration using five years’ (2013-2017) phenology data. The performance of APSIM was assessed using Relative Root Mean Square Error (RRMSE) and coefficient of determination (R2). The downscaled climate of the study area revealed that precipitation is likely to increase in a range of 20.9% to 30.3% in Atsbi Wenberta and 26.1% to 27.0% in Kilte Awulaelo (the range being the uncertainty). As well, the future temperature is predicted to increase and change in minimum temperature exceeded that of maximum temperature in ET. An output from calibrated and evaluated APSIM model showed a general grain yield decline relative to the baseline, especially during ET RCP 8.5. Relatively lower percentage yield losses resulted from early sowing (05 June) of barley cultivars as opposed to normal and late sowing (23 June and 05 July respectively). Extreme temperatures under future climate is expected to decrease yield as higher temperature is likely to increase evapotranspiration, shorten pollination and grain filling period. We therefore recommend better soil and water conservation practices to minimize evapotranspiration, early sowing and breeding for improved barley cultivars with combined traits such as heat-stress tolerance, early heading and longer grain filling period.

Keywords: Global Circulation Model, Climate Change


A1-P-32

UncertaintyinclimatechangeprojectionsoverIndiausingtwodynamicaldownscalingtechniques

RamSingh,CentreforAtmosphericSciences,IndianInstituteofTechnologyDelhi,India

RamSingh,KrishnaAchutaRao,CentreforAtmosphericSciences,IndianInstituteofTechnologyDelhi,India

Uncertaintyinfutureclimateprojectionsatregionalandsub-regionalscalesisanissueofconcernforthe research and policymaker communities. Over regional scales, dynamic downscaling is still apreferredapproachtoproduceusefulinformation.TheuseofRCMsandhigh-resolutionAGCMsaretwo approaches that are popular. In this study, we investigate the impact of various dynamicaldownscalingmethodologies(usingaRCMandAGCM)onthemeanchangeandassociateduncertaintyoverIndia.Weuse9selectedCMIP5AOGCMsdownscaled(to0.5°x0.5°resolution)usingtheRegionalClimateModel(RCM)fortheSouthAsiadomainusingtheRossbyCenterregionalAtmosphericversion(RCA4)bytheSwedishMeteorologicalandHydrologicalInstitute(SMHI)asapartofCORDEX.Wealsodownscaled the same 9 AOGCMs using NCAR’s Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5.3 – theatmosphericcomponentofCESM1.2.2,at0.9°x1.25°resolution).WecomparethedownscaledoutputsfromRCP4.5andRCP8.5scenariosagainstrelevantCMIP5modeloutputoverthehomogenousclimaticzonesofIndia.Spatialandseasonalfeaturesofpresent-dayclimateoverIndianregionarereasonablywellsimulatedbyboththeRCMandAGCMwiththesignatureofdownscalingmodelsevidentinthebiases. We analysed the impact of two dynamical downscaling on mean change and associateduncertainty over the regional and sub-regional scale and also investigated how the uncertainty isfundamentallydifferentfromAOGCMs.

Keywords: Dynamical Downscaling,Regional Climate Change, Uncertainty, Regional Climate Model, AOGCMs


A1-P-33

ValidationforthetropicalbeltversionofWRF:Sensitivitytestsonradiationandcumulusconvectionparameterizations

BiyunSun,ClimateChangeResearchCentre,InstituteofAtmosphericPhysics,CAS,China

BiyunSun,XunqiangBi,ClimateChangeResearchCentre,InstituteofAtmosphericPhysics,ChineseAcademyofSciences

Version 3.9 of WRF-ARW is run with a tropical belt configuration for a period from 2012 to 2016 in this study. The domain covers the entire tropics between and with a spatial resolution of about 45 km. In order to verify two radiation schemes and four cumulus convection schemes, eight experiments are performed with different combinations of physics parameterization schemes. By analyzing the basic features of 2m temperature, precipitation and zonal wind at 10m, and the diurnal cycle of precipitation in boreal summer, the following main conclusions are drawn :

(1) Eight experiments present reasonable spatial patterns of surface air temperature and precipitation in boreal summer, with the spatial correlation coefficient (COR) between simulated and observed temperature exceeding 0.95, and that between simulated and observed precipitation ranges from 0.65 to 0.82.

(2) The four experiments with the RRTMG radiation scheme show a better performance than the other four experiments with the CAM radiation scheme. In the four experiments with the RRTMG radiation scheme, the COR between simulated and observed surface air temperature is about 0.98, and that between simulated and observed precipitation ranges from 0.76 to 0.82.

(3) Comparatively, the two experiments using the new Tiedtke cumulus parameterization scheme can simulate better diurnal variation of precipitation in boreal summer than the other six experiments. In particular, for the diurnal cycle of precipitation over land and ocean, the experiment using the RRTMG radiation scheme and the new Tiedtke cumulus convection scheme shows that the peaks of precipitation rate appear at 0400 LST and 1600 LST, in agreement with observation.

Keywords: Parameterization Scheme,Diurnal cycle of precipitation


A1-P-34

CORDEXmulti-RCMhindcastoverCentralAfrica:Evaluationwithinobservationaluncertainty

ThierryTaguela,LaboratoryforEnvironmentalModellingandAtmosphericPhysics,DepartmentofPhysics,UniversityofYaounde1,Cameroon,Cameroon

ThierryTaguela,DerbetiniA.Vondou,LaboratoryforEnvironmentalModellingandAtmosphericPhysics,DepartmentofPhysics,UniversityofYaounde1,Cameroon,Cameroon;WilfriedPokam,

DepartmentofPhysics,HigherTeacherTrainingCollege,UniversityofYaounde1,Cameroon;ThierryFotso-Nguemo,NationalInstituteofCartography,Yaounde,Cameroon,Cameroon;Wilfran

Moufouma-Okia,IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC),TechnicalSupportUnit(TSU),WorkingGroup

ThisworkinvestigatestheperformanceoftenRCMshindcastsfromCORDEXoverCentralAfricaduringthe period 1998-2008, with focus on monthly rainfall and surface temperature. DownscaledsimulationsarenestedwithintheECMWFInterimRe-Analysis (ERA-Interim)over theperiod1998–2008andoveracommonareaat0.44◦(∼50km)ofresolution.Manyobservationaldatasetsareusedto assess model performances over four subregions. Throughout the work a measurement ofobservationaluncertaintyismadeandwediscusswhetherornotthemodelsaretrulywithinoroutsidetherangeofobservationaluncertainty.WealsodiscusstheaddedvalueoftheRCMsoverERA-Interim,theuncertaintyinensemblemeanofRCMsandhowtreatingallsimulationsequallymattersornot.Resultsindicatethatingeneral,RCMsrelativelysimulatewellrainfallandtemperaturebasicfeaturesoverthefoursubregions,thoughimportantbiasesexistandvaryformodelsandseasons.Wetbiasesarequasi-systematicfeaturesinthenorthernandsouthernpartofthedomain,andinregionswithhighertopography.DrybiasesarecommonfeaturesforfewRCMsovertheCongobasin.Fromoneseasontoanother,mostoftheRCMsandsometimealongwiththeiraveragefailtosimulaterainfalland temperature by underestimating or overestimating the range of observational uncertainty.However,RCMsshowagoodspreadofgridpointswhereaddedvalueisfound,exceptUC-WRFandUCT-PRECIS. This could explain why whatever the time scale of variability (seasonal, annual andinterannual),UC-WRFisgenerallyfoundtobeoneoftheworstamongRCMs.Wecannotreallysaythemultimodelgenerallyoutperformindividualmodel,butitisfoundwithinobservationaluncertaintywhenmostmodelsarealsofoundinside.Thishighlightthefactthattheensemblemean,builtfromtheequaltreatmentofRCMsisnotreallydifferentfrommostoftheRCMsandputquestiononthewayitwasbuilt.

Keywords: Central Africa, CORDEX-RCMs, Observational uncertainty, Multi-model average, Added value


A1-P-35

UncertaintiesindetectingtropicalcyclonesinRegionalClimateModelsimulationsovertheCORDEX-SoutheastAsiadomain

JenniferTibay,ManilaObservatory,Philippines

JenniferTibay,GemmaTeresaNarisma,FayeAbigailCruz,ManilaObservatory,Philippines;MarcelinoVillafuerteII,PAGASA,Philippines;FredolinTangang,UniversitiKebangsaanMalaysia,Malaysia;JunengLiew,UniversitiKebangsaanMalaysia,Malaysia;ThanhNgo-Duc,UniversityofScienceandTechnologyofHanoi,Vietnam;TanPhan-Van,VNUUniversityofScience,Vietnam;JerasornSantisirisomboon,RUCORE,Thailand;PatamaSinghruck,ChulalongkornUniversity,

Thailand;DodoGunawan,BMKG,Indonesia;EdvinAldrian,BPPT,Indonesia;JarenRyanRex,ManilaObservatory,Philippines

The possible sources of uncertainties in simulating the historical tropical cyclone (TC) climatology such as the model-dependent threshold values per criteria, the detection method algorithm, and the domain size are examined and compared using the three downscaled simulations of Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling / Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment – Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX-SEA) and the two downscaled datasets of Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). The study analyzes the characteristics of TC climatology in terms of pattern, intensity, frequency, and lifetime. Sensitivity tests for the detection method criteria threshold values were conducted to determine the optimum threshold configuration for each CORDEX-SEA simulation and PAGASA simulation. Model simulations underestimated the total number of TCs and the average TC days for the 1986 to 2005 period compared with the best tract dataset of Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). The detection method of Phan et al. (2015) and Hodges (1994) displayed differences in the TC count and detected maximum wind speed. However, both detection methods showed a northwestward shift of TC track density in the region. Model simulations are also affected by domain size and location of the lateral boundaries that contributes to uncertainty in simulating TC climatology.

Keywords: CORDEX, tropical cyclones, regional climate modeling, uncertainty


A1-P-36

Harnessingtheeconomicbenefitsunderuncertainty:EvidencefromtheTeestariverbasinofBangladesh

Md.ArfanUzzaman,FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations,Bangladesh

Climatechangewillincreasethefrequencyandintensityofextremeeventssuchasfloods,riverbankerosion,anddroughtinbothnear-termandlong-termwhichmayleadfurtheruncertainfuturetothepoorandmarginalpeople intheTeestabasinofBangladesh.Thefarmerspracticingadaptations inTeestabasinexperience reduced lossanddamage involvesdifferent costsandbenefits. This studyaimedatassessingthemostpromisingadaptationpractices,theireconomiccostandreturn,andsocialwelfarethroughthecost-benefitanalysisapproach.Thestudyrevealedfewadaptationpracticeswithhigh costs but generating lowbenefits to the farmers and vice versa. The study found among theadaptations,shallowtube-well(STW)basedirrigationpracticeinbothsandyandloamysoilhasthehighestmarginaladaptationcost(MAC)butthelowestbenefit-costratio(BCR).Deeptube-well(DTW)based irrigation practice generates superior benefit to the farmers compared to the STW basedfarmingduetotheinitialestablishmentbythegovernmentwhichcostalargeamount.MaizefarmingasalternatecroppinggeneratesnearlyfivetimeshighereconomicbenefitsthanthecostswhichcanbeacknowledgedasamostprofitableandresilientadaptationoptionintheTeestabasin.ThoughMACistheleastfortheshort-durationvariety(SDV)riceamongthepromisingadaptations,it’seconomicprofitabilityis36%lowerthanthatofthemaizecultivation.However,havinglowerBCRtheSDVriceproducesUS$51highersocialwelfarethanthemaizecultivationwhichmayenhancetheSDVriceoverthemaizecultivation.Strategicadaptationplanningandsubsidizedresiliencebuildingmayencouragethefarmerstotakeupadaptationoptionswhichmayreduceclimate-inducedlossanddamagesofthefarmersandbuildsocio-economicresilienceintheTeestabasinandothersimilarareasofSouthAsia.

Keywords: Climate vulnerability, Adaptation benefit, Teesta river basin, Socio-economic resilience


A1-P-37

HighresolutionsimulationsandprojectionsovermostofNorthAmerica:achievementsandon-goingwork

JialiWang,ArgonneNationalLaboratory,UnitedStates

JialiWang,RaoKotamarthi,ArgonneNationalLaboratory,UnitedStates

In this presentation, we will talk about our achievements using dynamic downscaling (using WRF)over most of North America (7200km x 6192km) at a spatial resolution of 12km; we will also talk about our on-going work over a slightly larger domain than CORDEX-NA at a spatial resolution of 4km. For the 12km WRF, we developed six ensemble members, with one 30yr of WRF simulations driven by NCEP-R2, and five ensemble members of simulation and projection using three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Earth system models (ESMs): GFDL-ESM 2G, HadGEM2-ES, and CCSM4 to represent the range of the sensitivities of all ESM responses to doubled CO2. Our ensemble is made up of one simulation that uses HadGEM2-ES boundary conditions; two simulations that use GFDL-ESM 2G as boundary conditions—one with spectral nudging and one without; and two simulations that use CCSM4 as boundary conditions—one with bias correction and one without. For most of the ensemble simulations we ran each of the lateral boundary conditions with two scenarios, each for two future time periods: (1) historical simulations (1995–2005), (2) RCP 4.5 (2045–2054), (3) RCP 4.5 (2085–2094), (4) RCP 8.5 (2045–2054), and (5) RCP 8.5 (2085–2095). The model output have been extensively evaluated and studied, especially for temperature and precipitation and their extreme features. The output were also applied by statisticians, infrastructure engineers, hydrologist, crop modelers, and biologist to study the spatio-temporal features of the climate change effect on infrastructure, water cycle, crop yields, and even insect pathogen! We have published a dozen of journal articles directly out of this project. There are also scientific reports, and PhD thesis that have used this model output. Some results will be highlighted in this presentation.

One of the most recent successful applications of this project is to provide future extreme climate information (e.g inland and coastal flooding as well as strong winds) to AT&T’s network infrastructure over southeastern US. A white paper is published by AT&T and dozens of new articles are written to report this application. Key outcomes from this project will be presented.

With the needs of high resolution data growing, and the fact we found from our previous study, a convective-permitting spatial resolution (less than 4km grid spacing) can significantly improve model performance, especially for extreme features. We are currently testing the feasibility and scale up capability of a 4km simulation over most of North America (similar domain as CORDEX-NA, but covers entire Alaska and Puerto Rico). There are 140 millions of grid cells (horizontally and vertically) for the domain. This project will conduct similar time periods considering different emission scenarios using GCMs as we did for the 12km. Once this dataset is generated, there will be immediate benefits for many other research topics. For example, high resolution wind data will serve better for fire risk study, coastal flooding study; high resolution precipitation will provide much better dataset for hydrological modeling (such as WRF-Hydro®); finer resolution will capture the details of complex topography and generate better precipitation over western US (such as snow over Sierra Nevada). We will present the challenge of this on-going work and the added value we found through several previous studies.

Keywords: High resolution simulations,convective-permitting


A1-P-38

IdentifyingaddedvalueofRCMsforsimulatedprecipitationinAfrica

MinchaoWu,SwedishMeteorologicalandHydrologicalInstitute,Sweden

MinchaoWu,GrigoryNikulin,ErikKjellström,DanijelBelušić,UlfHansson,MarcoKupiainen,DavidLindstedt,PetterLind,SwedishMeteorologicalandHydrologicalInstitute,Sweden

WeinvestigateimpactsofhorizontalresolutionandmodelformulationontheclimatologyofsimulatedprecipitationoverAfricaby conducting anumberof sensitivity experiments at differenthorizontalresolutionsbydifferentRCMs.FirstwedownscaletheERA-Interimreanalysis(about80kmresolution)bytwoRCMs(SMHI-RCA4andHCLIM-ALADIN)overAfricaatabout25,50,100and200kmresolutionforthehistoricalperiod(1981-2010)fortheevaluationofmodelperformanceandidentifypossibleadded value compared to the reanalysis Second, to attribute changesbyRCMson climate changesignals,wedownscaletwoglobalmodelsfrom1950to2100(EC-EARTHandMIROC5undertheRCP8.5scenario)bytwoversionsofSMHI-RCA4overAfricaatthestandardCORDEX0.44°(50km)resolutionandat the spatial resolutionof thedrivingGCMs (about1.1º forEC-EARTHand1.4º forMIROC5).FocusingonprecipitationwefindthataddedvalueofincreasingresolutioncanbefoundwithregardstotheforcingreanalysisandGCMs,butvariesdependingonregionandseason.Wealsonotethatsome of the identified added value are common to the RCMs regardless of which GCM that isdownscaled.ThisstudymaygiveusefulimplicationtotheutilityofRCMs,especiallywhenitcomestothethemeofclimateservices.

Keywords: Added value, Africa, RCA4, HCLIM, precipitation


A1-P-39

Evaluationofmulti-RCMhigh-resolutionhindcastovertheCORDEXEastAsiaPhaseIIregion

KeYu,SchoolofAtmosphericSciences,NanjingUniversity,China

KeYu,JianpingTang,SchoolofAtmosphericSciences,NanjingUniversity,China

Based on the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment-East Asia second phase (CORDEX-EA-II) with higher resolution, model results driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis using WRF, RegCM4 and CCLM are evaluated against the observational datasets including CN05.1, CRU and GPCP during the period of 1989-2009. The results show that the RCMs have the capability to simulate the annual and seasonal mean surface air temperature and precipitation, however, some biases are produced. The biases are highly dependent on the geophysical locations and the RCMs applied, and CCLM agrees better with the observed precipitation over ocean. CCLM also outperforms the other two RCMs in simulating the interannual variations of temperature and precipitation in most sub-regions, which can be attributed to its better presentation of the interannual variation of large scale circulation. Generally, all the three RCMs can well reproduce the seasonal cycles of the surface air temperature in most sub-regions, however, only in the northern regions of China can the RCMs well reproduce the seasonal cycles of precipitation. Key words: CORDEX; Regional climate model; East Asia

Under the same framework, we are going to investigate and evaluate the RCMs’ performances in simulating extreme temperature over CORDEX-EA-II region in the period after the submission of abstract. We focus on the climate extreme indices developed by ETCCDI and the relevant model performances to detect what reasons cause the biases and uncertainties in the simulations. So we may add these part of study into my oral presentation if this abstract will be accepted as we hope. On the basis of these procedures, we can better understand the underlying physical mechanisms in the regional dynamical downscaling modelling.

Keywords: CORDEX-EA-II,Regional Climate Model


A2: Convection permitting modelling

ORAL PRESENTATIONS

Parallel Session A: Advances in regional downscaling A2: Convection permitting modelling

AsurrogatewarmingexperimentonsummertimeextremeprecipitationeventsinEuropecomparingaconvectivepermittingmodel

tocoarserscaleRCMs

ErikKjellström,SMHI,Sweden

ErikKjellström,PetterLind,DanijelBelusic,SMHI,Sweden;GeertLenderink,KNMI,Netherlands

Wecompareaveryhighresolution(≤3kmgridspacing)convectionpermittingregionalclimatemodel(CPRCM) with a standard high-resolution (12 km grid spacing) convection parameterized regionalclimatemodel (RCM) simulateprecipitationextremes for four different regions coveringEurope intoday’sclimateand inaclimaterepresentingawarmerworld.Simulationsforcedbyreanalysisareperformed for tenmonths from the last two decades representing summer conditionswith largeamountsofprecipitation.Inaddition,asurrogateclimatechangeexperimentwasmadeinwhichtheboundaryconditionsfortheRCMsweresyntheticallychangedtorepresentatwo-degreewarming.Weshowthattheconvectivepermittingmodeloutperformstheintermediatestandard-resolution(12km)regionalclimatemodelinrepresentationofhourlyprecipitationstatisticsandthataddedvalueisobtained, not just at the very high resolution, but also aggregated to the 12 km grid scale. Thesurrogateclimatechangeexperimentsindicatethatprecipitationandprecipitationextremesincreasein the two-degree warmer climate. Changes in precipitationmostly follow the Clausius-Clapeyronrelationship with about a 6-7% increase in precipitation per degree of temperature increase. Anexceptiontothisrelatestohigh-intensityprecipitationeventswherehigh-end(above90%)percentiles(basedonhourlydata)showstrongerincreaseuptotwicetheClausius-Clapeyronrelation.WeanalysedifferencesbetweendifferentpartsofEuropewithrespecttodifferentregionalforcingfactorssuchasmoistureavailability.Theexperimentaldesignofoursurrogateclimatesimulations,witharelativelylargenumberofeventssampledthroughanumberofmonth-longsimulations,showssomebenefitsininterpreting“FutureWeather”simulationsintermsofclimatechangecomparedtostudiesbasedonsingleevents.

Keywords: Convective permitting model, Precipitation extremes


(When)isconvectionpermittingresolutionimportantinthenorthernlatitudes?

DanijelBelušić,SMHI,Sweden

DanijelBelušić,PetterLind,DavidLindstedt,SMHI,Sweden;ErikaToivonen,FMI,Finland;RasmusA.Pedersen,DMI,Danemark;ErikKjellström,SMHI,Sweden;OskarLandgren,METNorway,Norway;

FuxingWang,SMHI,Sweden;OleB.Christensen,DMI,Danemark

WeexaminenewclimatesimulationsovertheNordicregion,performedwiththeHCLIM38regionalclimate model at both convection permitting and coarser scales, searching for benefits of usingconvectionpermittingresolutions.TheNordicclimateisinfluencedbytheNorthAtlanticstormtrackand characterised by large seasonal contrasts in temperature and precipitation. It is also in rapidchange,mostnotablyinthewinterseasonwhenfeedbackprocessesinvolvingretreatingsnowandiceleadtolargerwarmingthaninmanyotherregions.Thismakestheareaanidealtestbedforregionalclimatemodels.WeexploretheeffectsofhigherresolutionandbetterreproductionofconvectiononvariousaspectsoftheNordicclimate,suchassnowinthemountains,lakesnoweffects,coastalwinds,urbanclimate,aswellasconvectivestormsandprecipitationwithaspecialfocusonextremeevents.

Keywords: Nordic climate, convection permitting modelling


FutureprecipitationchangesovertheAlpineregioninamulti-modelconvection-permittingensemble:afirstlook

StefanSobolowski,NORCENorwegianResearchCentre&theBjerknesCentreforClimateResearch,Norway

StefanSobolowski,NORCENorwegianResearchCentre&theBjerknesCentreforClimateResearch,Norway;BasilePoujol,EcoleNormaleSuperieure,France;TorgeLorenz,NORCENorwegianResearchCentre&theBjerknesCentreforClimateResearch,Norway;SegoleneBerthou,UKMetOffice,UnitedKingdom;ElizabethKendon,UKMetOffice,UnitedKingdom;StevenChan,UKMetOffice,United

Kingdom;SamuelSomot,CecileCaillaud,CNRM(MeteoFrance),France

Changesinprecipitationatlocaltoregionalscalesinawarmerworldremainhighlyuncertain.Thisisespeciallytrueofbothmoderateandhighextremes(e.g.>90%-ilesand>99.9%-iles,respectively).Whilearelationshipbetweenincreasingmodelresolutionandincreasingprecipitation(bothmeansand extremes) appears to bepresent for bothGCMs andRCMs there are conflicting resultswhenconvection-permitting scales are reached. These differences can be region as well as modeldependent. A project under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program’s (WCRP)Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiments Flagship Pilot Studies program (CORDEX-FPS) wasestablished to investigate these, and other issues. This initiative aims to build first-of-their-kindensembleclimateexperimentsusingconvectionpermittingmodelstoinvestigatepresentandfutureconvectiveprocessesandrelatedextremesoverEuropeandtheMediterranean.Inthispresentationweofferafirstlookatthescenariosimulations(Historical2000-2009andRCP8.52090-99timeslices)andananalysisofprecipitationchangesandtheirdriversovervarioussub-regionsofalargedomain,whichcovertheAlps,partsofcentralEuropeandtheMediterraneanandAdriaticcoasts(0-17Ex40-50N). To maintain consistency and compatibility to earlier studies we first examine changes inpercentiles,seasonalityandwetdayfrequencybeforemovingontoaninvestigationofchangesinthefulldistributionusinge.g.intensity-durationmetrics.Finallyweemployprocess-basedmetricsusingvorticity and vertical velocity to split precipitation into stratiform, orographic and convectivecategories.Thisnewapproachfocusesonthephysicalprocessesleadingtoprecipitationofacertaintype rather than use the circular reasoning of employing the result to determine the cause. Weconcludewithadiscussionofthechangestotheunderlyingphysicalprocessesdrivingconvectiveandothertypesofprecipitationathighlylocalizedscales.

Keywords: Convective extremes, Regional change, Precipitation, Convection permitting modeling


Theeffectsofswitching-offparameterizedconvectionatgrey-zoneresolutions

JesusVergara-Temprado,ETH-Zurich,Switzerland

JesusVergara-Temprado,NikolinaBan,DavidePanosetti,LindaSchlemmer,ChristophSchär,ETH-Zurich,Switzerland

Thegrey-zoneofconvectionisdefinedastherangeofhorizontalgrid-spaceresolutionsinatmosphericmodelsinwhichsomeconvectiveprocessesmightbeexplicitlyrepresentedbythedynamicsofthemodel.Intheserangeofresolutions(fromaroundafewkmtoaboutafewhundredmeters),eitherusing parameterizations for convective processes or relaying on themodel dynamics to representthemexplicitlycouldleadtosystematicmodelbiases.Here,weexploretheeffectofparameterizingornotdeepand shallowconvection in year-long climate simulationsover aPan-Europeandomainusingdifferenthorizontalresolutionsrangingfrom50kmto2.2kmwithanon-hydrostaticmodel.Wefindthatacrosstherangeofhorizontalresolutionstested,modelbiasestendtodiffermoreduetotherepresentation of convection than due to changes in resolution when looking at precipitationintensitiesandthediurnalcycleofsummerprecipitation.Theshort-wavenetradiativebalanceoftheatmosphereisthevariablemoststronglyaffectedbyresolutionchangesfromtheoneswestudied.The results suggest that an explicit representation of convection can be used at much coarserresolutions than previously thought. We will also present results on how the representation ofconvectiveprocessesatgreyscaleresolutionsaffectsimulatedclimatechangeprojections.

Keywords: convection-permitting, parameterized convection


ConvectionpermittingregionalclimatesimulationsovertheArabianGulfRegion

XiaoqinJing,NanjingUniversityofInformationScienceandTechnology,China

XiaoqinJing,NanjingUniversityofInformationScienceandTechnology,China;LulinXue,HuaXinChuangZhiSci.&Tech.LLC,;YanYin,NanjingUniversityofInformationScienceandTechnology,China-;DavidYates,DanielSteinhoff,AndrewMonaghan,NationalCenterforAtmosphericResearch,UnitedStates;JingYang,NanjingUniversityofInformationScienceandTechnology

Ahigh-resolution(4km)regionalclimatesimulationsovera10-yrperiod(1990-1999)isconductedtostudythecloudandprecipitationclimatologyintheArabianGulfRegion(AGR).WRFisemployedtodynamicallydownscaledtheclimateoftheAGRatfinespatialandtemporalscaleusingGCMdata.TheinitialandboundaryconditionsweregeneratedbytheCommunityClimateSystemModel-Version4(CCSM4),whoseoutputsarebias-correctedusinganERA-InterimdrivenWRFbenchmarksimulation.TheresultsareevaluatedagainsttheTropicalRainfallMeasuringMission(TRMM)andground-basedstationdata.TheWRFsimulationcapturestheprecipitationdistributionandamountwell,especiallyduringwinter. TheAGRexperienceswetwinter anddry summer in general. The cloudoccurrencefrequencyinAGRisthehighestduringsummer,buttheprecipitationamountissmall.

The future climate for 2065-2074 under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5)emission scenario is simulated using a bias-corrected dynamic downscaling approach. The climateperturbations are derived from the bias-corrected CCSM4 outputs. The simulation provides anestimateofaveragechangesintheatmosphericconditionsandprecipitationdistributioninfinescaleovertheAGR.Theprimaryresultsindicatethatincreasesintemperatureduetoglobalwarmingleadstohigherprecipitationintensities,butfewerprecipitationevents.

Keywords: convection permitting, Arabian Gulf Region, regional climate simulations


SensitivityofsummerprecipitationsimulationtomicrophysicsparameterizationovereasternChina:Convection-permitting

RegionalClimateSimulation

ZiyueGuo,SchoolofAtmosphericSciences,NanjingUniversity,China

ZiyueGuo,JianpingTang,SchoolofAtmosphericSciences,NanjingUniversity,China

Thisstudypresentsa6-year(2009-2014)summerclimatesimulationusingtheWeatherResearchandForecasting(WRF)modelatconvection-permitting(CP)resolution(4kmgridspacing).Toinvestigatethe effect of precipitation characteristics on themicrophysics parameterization (MP) schemes,wechoosetheLin(singlebulkMP),WSM5(one-momentandmixed-phasedMP),andThompson(two-momentandmixed-phaseMP)scheme.ThemodelresultsareevaluatedthroughacomparisonwiththeCMORPHandERA-interimdata.TheCPmodelcanwellreproducesummerprecipitationamountand associated large-scale atmospheric circulations, which are insensitive to the choice of MPschemes. The simulations of all MP schemes are able to capture the precipitation timing butoverestimatetheprecipitationamountespeciallyforheavyrainfall,andthismayduetothesystematicbias,whichmaynotdecreasesignificantlybyusingdifferentMPschemes.Moreover,allsimulationsalso can capture the major features of precipitation diurnal variation and their transitioncharacteristics, but they significantly overestimate (underestimate) the precipitation frequency(intensity).Thompsonschemecreatesmoresnowparticles(lessgraupel)thanWSM5(Lin)scheme,andproducestheleastprecipitationamountthatbestmatchestheCMORPH.

Keywords: Convection Permitting scale, solid hydrometeors


HowdoestherainfallchangeoverHawaiiinthefuture?ConvectionpermittingregionalclimatesimulationsoftheHawaiianIslands

LulinXue,NationalCenterforAtmosphericResearch,UnitedStates

LulinXue,NationalCenterforAtmosphericResearch,UnitedStates;YapingWang,InstituteofAtmosphericPhysics,-;AndrewNewman,KyokoIkeda,RoyRasmussen,NationalCenterfor

AtmosphericResearch,UnitedStates;ThomasGiambelluca,RyanLongman,UniversityofHawaiiatManoa,UnitedStates;AndrewMonaghan,UniversityofColoradoatBoulder,UnitedStates;MartynClark,NationalCenterforAtmosphericResearch,UnitedStates-;JefferyArnold,U.S.ArmyCorpsof

Engineers,UnitedStates

Twohigh-resolution(a1.5kmgridspacingdomainnestedwithina4.5kmgridspacingdomain)10-yearregionalclimatesimulationsovertheentireHawaiianarchipelagohavebeenconductedattheNationalCenterforAtmosphericResearch(NCAR)usingtheWeatherResearchandForecasting(WRF)modelversion3.7.1.ThehistoricalsimulationdrivenbytheERA-Interimreanalysisdatathatvalidatesvery well against various observations serves as the basis to assess the rainfall changes throughcomparingthemodelresultsofthesimulationinapseudoglobewarming(PGW)scenario.ThedetailedvalidationsofthehistoricalsimulationandtheanalysisofrainfallchangesinPGWsimulationwillbediscussed. The importance of the tradewind inversion and its interactionwith complex terrain incontrollingtherainfalldistributionsisemphasized.Thehigh-resolutionsimulationdataareavailableforresearcherstotackleothersciencequestions.

Keywords: convection permitting regional climate simulation, orographic precipitation


Casestudyreproducibilityinaconvection-permittingWRFmulti-physicsensemble:theroleofinternalvariability

AlvaroLavin-Gullon,IFCA-UniversityofCantabria,Spain

AlvaroLavin-Gullon,JesusFernandez,UniversityofCantabria,Spain;SophieBastin,InstitutePierreSimonLaplace(IPSL),France;RitaM.Cardoso,InstitutoDomLuiz,UniversidadedeLisboa,Portugal;TheodoreM.Giannaros,NationalObservatoryofAthens,InstituteforEnvironmentalResearchandSustainableDevelopment,Greece;KlausGoergen,ResearchCentreJuelich,InstituteofBio-andGeosciences,Germany;StergiosKartsios,EleniKatragkou,AristotleUniversityofThessaloniki,

GreeceTorgeLorenz,BjerknesCentreforClimateResearch,Norway;JosipaMilovac,UniversityofCantabria,Spain;StefanSobolowski,BjerknesCentreforClimateResearch,Norway;PedroM.M.Soares,InstitutoDomLuiz,UniversidadedeLisboa,Portugal-;KirstenWarrach-Sagi,Universityof

Hohenheim,Germany

IntheframeworkoftheCORDEXFPSonConvectivephenomenaathighresolutionoverEuropeandtheMediterranean(FPS-CEM,Coppolaetal.,2018),aconvection-permittingmulti-modelensemblewasusedtosimulatehigh-impactweathereventsovertheAlps.Thisexperimentresultedinnoticeablediscrepanciesbetweenmodelsinrepresentingselectedheavyprecipitationevents.ThegroupsusingtheWeatherandResearchForecasting (WRF)modelorganizedamulti-physicsensemble, suitedtoidentifytheprocessesbehindthosediscrepancies.Inthisworkweanalyzetheuncertaintyarisingfrominternal variability in this multi-physics ensemble at one-month and one-year timescales. Todistinguish theuncertaintydue to theuseofdifferentparameterizations from thatof the internalvariability, a set of simulations with perturbed initial conditions was performed. We measuredquantitativelytheuncertaintyarisingfrombothsourcesusinginter-membervariances.Forcirculationvariables, the results suggest that uncertainties from multi-physics and internal variability havecomparablemagnitude,exhibitinganannualcyclewithhighervaluesinsummerthaninwinter.Thespatialdistributionoftheuncertaintiesshowsimilarpatterns,withhighervaluesoverthenortheasternpart of the domain. These patterns are in agreement with previous studies which conclude thatinternalvariabilityincreaseswheretheinflowoftheboundaryinformationislessdominant:thatis,insummerwhentheboundaryforcingisnotabletoovercomethelocal-scaleprocesses,andfarfromthewesterlyflowcomingfromthenorthAtlantic.Thebehaviourofuncertaintyalsodependsonthevariable.Surfacevariablesaremoreaffectedbyparameterizedprocesses(soilphysics,boundarylayer,clouds,etc.),hence theuncertaintyassociated to theparameterizationshasmoredecisive role forthesevariablesthanforcirculationvariables.

Keywords: Internal Variability, RCM, Physical parameterizations, Uncertainty


AssessmentofthesynopticforcingassociatedwithextremeprecipitationeventsoverSoutheasternSouthAmericaasdepictedbyRCMsatconvective

permittingresolutionperformedwithinaCORDEXFPS

SilvinaSolman,CIMA(CONICET-UBA)/UniversityofBuenosAires,Argentina

SilvinaSolman,MartinFeijoo,CIMA(CONICET/UBA),Argentina;AlvaroLavin-Gullon,JesusFernandez,UniversityofCantabria,Spain;RosmeriPorfirioDaRocha,UniversityofSaoPaulo,Brazil;MartaLlopart,StateUniversityofSaoPaulo,Brazil;SinChanChou,CPTEC(INPE),Brazil;MariaLaura

Bettolli,UniversityofBuenosAires,Argentina;MoiraDoyle,CIMA(CONICET-UBA)/UniversityofBuenosAires,Argentina;ErikaCoppola,ICTP,Italy;JoseManuelGutierrezLlorente,Universityof

Cantabria,Spain

SoutheasternSouthAmerica(SESA)isoneoftheregionsoftheworldwherethedeepestandmostintenseconvectivestormsdevelop.InitiatedovertheleesideoftheAndes,thesestormspropagatefurther eastward as they growup to themature stage intomesoscale convective systems, fed bymoistureprovidedbyastrengthenedSouthAmericanLowLevelJet,thedevelopmentofalowlevelpressureontheleesideoftheAndesandamid-leveltrough.InthecontextoftheongoingFlagshipPilotStudyendorsedbyCORDEXfocusedonextremeprecipitationeventsoverSESA,aseriesofRCM(regionalclimatemodel)simulationsatconvectivepermittingresolution(4km)hasbeenproduced.Theaimofthisstudyistoassessthecapabilityofthesesimulationsincapturingthesynopticforcingassociatedwith theoccurrenceofextremeprecipitationeventsoverSESA.For thatpurpose, threeindividualstormsofextremecharacteristicswereselectedduringthespringtosummerseason2009-2010.SimulationsweredrivenbytheERA-Interimreanalysesattworesolutions:20kmand4km.Twotypes of simulationswere performed: the “weathermode”, based on 72-hours simulations of theindividualcases,andthe“climatemode”,basedon6-months-lengthsimulationsfortheperiodfromOctober2009toMarch2010.TheRCMsincludedinthisfirstassessmentare:RegCM4(Univ.ofSaoPaulo-Brazil),WRF3.8(Univ.ofCantabria-Spain)andWRF3.9(Univ.ofBuenosAires/CIMA-Argentina).Thecomparisonamongtheconvectivepermittingandparameterizedconvectionsimulationsintermsof the triggeringmechanismsassociatedwith theextremeprecipitationevents isdiscussed. Itwasfound thatoneof the largestdifferencesamong the twogroupsof simulations is in the low- levelmoisturefluxconvergencefield,suggestingthatthelow-levelwindandmoisturefieldsareaffectedbytheoccurrenceofconvectionandtheyaresensitivetohowconvectioniscapturedinthemodels.

Keywords: CORDEX FPS SESA, extreme precipitation events, convective permitting simulations


A2: Convection permitting modelling


LASTNAME FIRSTNAME TITLE POSTERNUMBER

BASTIN Sophie Multi-modelanalysisoftriggeringofprecipitation:impactofmodelresolutionandconvectionrepresentation,andevolutioninawarmerclimate

A2-P-01

DAROCHA Rosmeri InitialresultsoftheCORDEXFPSonextremeprecipitationeventsinSoutheasternSouthAmerica:dynamicaldownscalingatconvection-permittingresolution

A2-P-02

FALL CheikhModouNoreyni

CharacterizationandpredictabilityofrainfallconvectivesystemsintheSahelfocusonSenegal

A2-P-03

FEIJOÓ Martín AssessmentofthecapabilityoftheWRF-ARWmodelatconvectivepermittingresolutiontoreproduceextremeprecipitationeventsoverSoutheastSouthAmerica:ACaseStudyApproach

A2-P-04

FITA Lluís Explorationofnewinsightsofland-atmosphereinteractionunsingFPSAlpscovectionpermittingexperiment

A2-P-05

GOERGEN Klaus Soilmoisture-temperaturecouplinginaCORDEXFPSconvection-permittingWRFRCMensemble

A2-P-06

JIANG Zhiyu SimulatedclimateextremesintheYangtzeRiverBasin,usingtheregionalclimatemodelWRF

A2-P-07

KHALID Bushra Testingofnon-hydrostaticcoreofRegCMandmicrophysicsovertheCarpathians

A2-P-08

PERALTA J.C.AlbertI SensitivityoftemperatureandprecipitationtophysicalparameterizationschemesofRegCM4overMindanao,Philippines

A2-P-09

PICHELLI Emanuela Analysisofhazardouseventsenvironmentinpresentandfuturescenariobymulti-modelsapproachinconvectionpermittingmode

A2-P-10

REMEDIO ArmelleReca SimulatedprecipitationinconvectionpermittingscalesusingREMO-NH

A2-P-11

TANG Jianping EvaluationofWRFregionalclimatemodelataconvection-permittingresolutionovereasternChina

A2-P-12

TARAPHDAR Sourav Gray-ZonesimulationsofrainfallovertheUAEandArabianPeninsula

A2-P-13

TARAPHDAR Sourav Sensitivityofmonsoonprecipitationtophysicalparameterizationsinacloudpermittingregionalmodel

A2-P-14

VANSCHAEYBROECK

Bert Modelvalidationmethodologyofshort-durationprecipitationextremes

A2-P-15

WANG Yan SynergisticeffectofhighresolutionandorographicdragparameterizationtoreduceWRFsimulatedprecipitationbiasincentralHimalaya

A2-P-16


A2-P-01

Multi-modelanalysisoftriggeringofprecipitation:impactofmodelresolutionandconvectionrepresentation,andevolutioninawarmerclimate

SophieBastin,IPSL/LATMOS,France

SophieBastin,MinhHa,IPSL/LATMOS,France;PhilippeDrobinski,LMD/IPSL,France;MarjolaineChiriaco,IPSL/LATMOS,France;LluisFita,CIMA/IFAECI,Argentina;OlivierBock,LAREG,France;JanPolcher,IPSL/LMD,France;NikolinaBan,ETHZ,Switzerland;DanijelBelusic,SMHI,Sweden;CecileCaillaud,CNRM/METEO-FRANCE,France;RitaCardoso,UL,Portugal;ErikaCoppola,ICTP,Italy;TheodoreGiannaros,NOA,Greece;KlausGoergen,FZJ,Germany;PanitzHans-Juergen,KIT,

Germany;OivindHodnebrog,CICERO,Norway;StergiosKartsios,AUTH,Greece;elenakatragkou,AUTH,Greece;alvaroLavin,UNICAN,Spain;TorgenLorenz,NORCE,Norway;JosipaMilovac,UNICAN,UHOH,Spain;EmanuelaPichelli,ICTP,Italy;ChristophSchär,ETHZ,Switzerland;Pedro

Soares,UL,Portugal;PaoloStocchi,ENEA,Italy;JesusVergaraTemprado,ETHZ,Switzerland;StefanSobolowski,ETHZ,Switzerland;KirstenWarrach-Sagi,UHOH,Germany;VolkerWulfmeyer,UHOH,

Germany

Despite theirhorizontal resolutionhigher thanglobalmodels, regional climatemodels stillpresentbiasesforthesimulationofprecipitationextremesforbothsidesofthedistribution,withatendencyto simulate too often light precipitation and to underestimate heavy precipitation, making themunreliablefortheestimationoffutureextremes(droughtsandflashfloods)overtheMediterraneanarea.Inthisstudy,weuseamulti-variatestatisticalrelationshipbetweentemperature,humidityandprecipitation-derivedfromcolocatedobservationsatthesupersiteSIRTAnearParis-toinvestigatethetriggeringofprecipitationoverthesiteinseveralregionalclimatesimulationsperformedintheframeworkofHymex/Med-CORDEX,EURO-CORDEXandtheFPSConvection.Wetestthesensitivityofthetriggeringtothemodelresolution-from50to3km,includingconvection-permittingsimulations.In particular, we evaluate how much the spread between models is modified by the absence ofparametrizationofdeepconvection in thesimulation. Wealsoassess thespatial variabilityof therelationshipandhowitevolvesinawarmerclimate.

Keywords: Triggering of precipitation, Convection-permitting simulation


A2-P-02

InitialresultsoftheCORDEXFPSonextremeprecipitationeventsinSoutheasternSouthAmerica:dynamicaldownscalingat

convection-permittingresolution

RosmeridaRocha,USP,Brazil

RosmeridaRocha,USP,Brazil;MartaLlopart,UNESP,Brazil;JesusFernandez,UniversityofCantabria,Spain;MariaLauraBertolli,UBA-CONICET,Argentina;SinChanChou,CPTEC,Brazil;Erika

Coppola,ICTP,Italy;MoiraDoyle,UBA/CONICET,Argentina;MartinFeijoo,CIMA,UBA-CONICET,Argentina;JoséManuelGutierrez,CSIC/UniversityofCantabria,Spain;A.Lavin-Gullon,

UniversityofCantabria,Spain;SilvinaSolman,CIMA-CONICET-UBA,Argentina

heCORDEXFlagshipPilotStudy(FPS)onextremeprecipitationeventsinSoutheasternSouthAmerica(SESA)aimsatstudyingmulti-scaleprocessesandinteractionsleadingtoextremeprecipitationevents.It will foster cooperation with the impacts and user community to obtain actionable climateinformationfromdifferentsources, includingbothstatisticalanddynamicaldownscaling.Regardingthelatter,wedesignedanexperimentalsetupexploringtheuncertaintiesarisingfromtheuseof(1)differentregionalclimatemodelsandconfigurations(ETA,RegCM4,WRF3.8,WRF3.9), (2)differentresolutions,withan intermediateresolutionnest (20km) to reachconvection-permittingresolution(4km)overthetargetarea,(3)differentheavyprecipitationeventsand(4)differentsimulationsetups,comparinga“Weather-like”mode,benefitingfrompredictabilityarisingfrominitialconditionsasinNWP,anda“climatemode”,wherepredictabilityarisesonly fromthe lateralboundaryconditions.ThesedrivingboundaryconditionsaretakeninallcasesfromtheERA-Interimreanalysis,inordertocomparewithobservationsandleaveoutglobalclimatemodellinguncertainty.

Inthiswork,wepresentsomeinitialresultsfocusingonlyonprecipitationandexploringtheabovementioneduncertaintysources.Inparticular,wefocusontheabilityofthemodelstorepresentthediurnalcycleofprecipitation,totalprecipitationamountandspatialdistributionascomparedtothedrivingreanalysisandseveralstationandgriddedobservationaldatasetsovertheregion.

Keywords: convection-permitting simulations, precipitation, diurnal cycle, sensitivity study


A2-P-03

CharacterizationandpredictabilityofrainfallconvectivesystemsintheSahel:focusonSenegal

CheikhmodouNoreyniFall,UniversitéCheikhAntaDIOPdeDakar/ÉcoleSupérieurePolytechnique,Senegal

InWestAfrica,rainfallisadeterminingfactorfortheglobalpopulationconsistsmostlyofrurallivingonagriculture.Inthisarea,thewatercyclehasahighvariabilityonallspatialandtemporalscalesanddepends on the dynamics of the system of the West African monsoon. Rainfall is generated byMesoscaleconvectivesystemsandsqualllines(Mesoscaleconvectivesystemsmulticellular),butalsowith local storm systems of any size, such as isolated thunderstorms. The spatial and temporaldistributionoftheseasonalcumulativerainfalldependsonthenumberofoccurrenceofthesevariousconvectivesystems.

ThisworkhighlightstherainfallcharacteristicsatasmallscaleincludingthatofSenegalcenterarea.Using the synoptic observation network of ANACIM ( National Agency of Civil Aviation andMeteorology)toandIRD(InstituteofResearchforDevelopment)to12stationsincenterofSenegal,Thies, Fatick, Kaolack, Diourbel,Mbour, Bambey from1960 to 2011.We generally observe a highspatialandtemporalvariabilityoftheannualtotalanddescriptorsoftherainyseason.includingtheonset,wetanddryspellsandhighimpactrainfallorextremsevents.

This high spatial and temporal variability is observed between separate stations a few kilometers.Indeed,Diourbelrecordedaraindeficitin2007season,whileforthesameyearwasinsurplusKaolack.Weshowedthehighfrequencynaturefortheshortdryandwetspellswhilethelongdryandwetspellare low frequencies and strongly modulate the seasonal accumulation of rain. Consequently, tounderstandthishighrainfallvariabilityintheSahel,itisnecessarytodistinguishbetweenlocalsystemsandmeso-scaleconvectivesystems (MCSs).Thus,we firstmadeaclimatologyofdifferent typesofconvectivesystemsobservedintheSahelfromsatellitedata(TRMM),observationsandradar(NPOL).This classification allowed us to properly quantify the contribution of each type of system on thecumulativerainfallinthearea.TheoriginalityofthisstudyliesinthecharacterizationofconvectiveactivityviaOLR (Outgoing longwave radiation)data justbeforeandaftera longdryandwet spell.Indeed,thedurationofsuchextremebreakswilldrythesoilwhichhelpstodecreasethelatentfluxtoincreasethesensitiveflux,whichwillwarmtheatmosphere.Thus,themesoscaleconvectivesystems(MCS)andthesqualllinescannotbesupplyingmoistureandthereforetheywilldissipate.

Keywords: Rainfall, MCSs, Squall lines, Dry and Wet Spell


A2-P-04

AssessmentofthecapabilityoftheWRF-ARWmodelatconvectivepermittingresolutiontoreproduceextremeprecipitationeventsover

SoutheastSouthAmerica:ACaseStudyApproach

MartínFeijoó,CIMA(CONICET-UBA),Argentina

MartínFeijoó,SilvinaSolman,CIMA(CONICET-UBA),Argentina

Southeastern South America (SESA) is one of the regions in the world most affected by extrememesoscaleconvectivesystemsandtheirassociatedextremeprecipitation.Manyauthorshavestudiedthemesoscaleforcingsthattriggerconvectionontheregion,beingtheAndesmountainrangeandtheSouthAmericanLowLevelJetkeyfactorsinthedevelopmentofconvectivestorms.ThesmallspatialscaleofthesesystemsandthefactthattheintensityofextremeprecipitationhasbeenincreasingoverSESAdue toglobalwarmingduring the lastdecade, reveals the importanceofunderstandinghowthese systems may change in the future. Several studies show that high resolution convectivepermitting Regional Climate Models (RCMs) improve the representation of the diurnal cycle andintensity of precipitation associated with deep convection, compared to coarser convectionparameterizedRCMs.Inthiscontext,theaimofthisstudyistoassessthecapabilityoftheWRF-ARWatconvectivepermitting(CP)resolutioninrepresentingtheprecipitationassociatedwiththeseeventsoverSESA,comparedwithRCMs,intwoways.First,inordertodetermineiftheCPimprovestheresultsofRCMsandsecond, if increasedspatial resolution inaCPmodel improvestheresults, taking intoaccount the computational costofhigh resolution simulations. Threeextremeprecipitationeventshave been selected over the region and three simulations have been carried out, one withparameterizedconvectionat12kmspatialresolution,andtwosimulationsat4kmand2.4kminwhichconvectionwasnotparameterizedbutresolvedexplicitly.Thesimulatedprecipitationwascomparedagainst CMORPH satellite estimations and the ability of the simulations was measured using theFractional Skill Score. The results show that CP simulations have better agreement with theobservations(diurnalcycleandintensity)thanRCMsimulations.Nosignificantdifferencewasfoundbetweenthe4kmand2.4kmsimulations.

Keywords: SESA,Convective permitting simulations,extreme precipitation events,high resolution


A2-P-05

Explorationofnewinsightsofland-atmosphereinteractionunsingFPSAlpsconvectionpermittingexperiment

LluísFita,CentrodeInvestigacionesdelMarylaAtmósfera(CIMA/UBA-CONICET)&IFAECI(UMI3351-IFAECI/CNRS-IRD-CONICET-UBA),BuenosAires,Argentina

LluísFita,CentrodeInvestigacionesdelMarylaAtmósfera(CIMA/UBA-CONICET)&IFAECI,BuenosAires,Argentina;SophieBastin,LaboratoireAtmosphères,Milieux,ObservationsSpatiales(LATMOS)/IPSL,France;AnnaSörensson,CentrodeInvestigacionesdelMarylaAtmósfera

(CIMA/UBA-CONICET)&IFAECI(UMI3351-IFAECI/CNRS-IRD-CONICET-UBA),BuenosAires,Argentina;JanPolcher,LaboratoiredeMétéorologieDynamique(LMD),IPSL,France

The CORDEX FPS Alps experiment establishes a first-of-its-kind in regional climate dynamicdownscalingexperimentsbyusingthemodelsatcloudresolvingresolution.Thisshouldenablethestudy of the land-atmosphere interaction under the unprecedented paradigm of the very highresolutionforamulti-yearperiod.Thisresolutionshouldallowthestudyofdifferentland-atmosphericprocesseswhichwereunresolvedatprevioussimilarlowerresolutionexercises.

In this studywepresentapreliminaryexplorationof the suitabilityof thisnewparadigm to studyvarious land-atmosphere interaction processes. The main focus is to analyze the impact of theheterogeneityof thesurface fluxesonthedevelopmentofconvectionduringsummer,whileothersubjects are the representation of katabatic/anabatic winds and the land/sea-breeze. The studyattemptstoanalyzesomeofthesedifferentfeaturesintermsof:(1)howtheyarerepresentedinthesimulations,(2)fit-for-purposeoftheresolution(3)andsuitabilityofthecomplexityofthephysicalparameterizations.

Thisstudyaimstoexplore,openanddiscussthenewopportunitiesthat(should)arisefromthiskindclimate exercises. Which land-atmosphere dynamics or other interactions can be expected to beproperlyresolvedandwhichaspectsarestillrequiredtobeimprovedfromthemodelingcommunityinordertoproperlyrepresentandanalyzetheunresolvedones.

Keywords: Convection Permitting, Land-atmosphere interaction


A2-P-06

Soilmoisture-temperaturecouplinginaCORDEXFPSconvection-permittingWRFRCMensemble

KlausGoergen,ResearchCentreJuelich,Germany

KlausGoergen,ResearchCentreJuelich,Germany;SophieBastin,InstitutPierreSimonLaplace,France;BenBourgart,ResearchCentreJuelich,Germany;RitaCardoso,UniversidadedeLisboa,

Portugal;DanielCoquelin,ResearchCentreJuelich,Germany;AndreyMartynov,UniversityofBern,Switzerland;JesusFernandez,UniversidaddeCantabria,Spain;TheodoreGiannaros,National

ObservatoryofAthens,Greece;OivindHodnebrog,CICEROCenterforInternationalClimateResearch,Norway;TorgeLorenz,TheBjerknesCentreforClimateResearch,Norway;JosipaMilovac,

UniversidaddeCantabria,Spain;KirstenWarrach-Sagi,UniversityofHohenheim,Germany;PedroSoares,UniversidadedeLisboa,Portugal;StefanSobolowski,TheBjerknesCentreforClimate

Research,Norway;HeimoTruhetz,UniversityofGraz,Austria;StergiosKartsios,AristotleUniversityofThessaloniki,Greece;EleniKatragkou,AristotleUniversityofThessaloniki,Greece;AlvaroLavin-

Gullon,UniversidaddeCantabria,Spain;StefanKollet,ResearchCentreJuelich,Germany

High-resolution, convection-permitting regional climate models (CPRCMs), with a more detailedrepresentationoflandsurfacepropertiesandanexplicittreatmentofdeepconvection,haveshownimprovementsinthesimulationofmeteorologicalandclimatesystemprocesses.UsinganensembleofCPRCMevaluationsimulationsforacentralEuropeandomain,thisstudyinvestigatesresultsfromtheapplicationofdrought-andheatwave-relatedindicesinthecontextofsoil-moisturetemperaturecoupling as part of the terrestrial segment of the land-atmosphere coupling. Analyses focus ondifferences (i)between thenestedconvection-permitting resolution3kmrunsand their reference15kmdriving runs, and (ii) among11membersof amulti-physics evaluationexperiment.Ahigherresolution leads not only to different precipitation timings, distributions and amounts; the largerheterogeneityatthesurfaceandsubsurface,aswellasthelargerorographicvariance,lead,e.g.,toalteredterrestrialwatercycleprocesses,whichinturnaffectthecoupling.TheCPRCMbasedatausedinthisstudyarefromanERA-Interimdrivenevaluationexperimentfrom2000to2009thatispartoftheWCRPCORDEXFlagshipPilotStudy(FPS)"ConvectivephenomenaathighresolutionoverEuropeand the Mediterranean". Here we use 11 WRF ensemble members from 11 international FPSparticipantgroups,asasubsetoftheoverallFPSensemble.TheWRFmodelsarerun inaonewaydouble-nestingsetup,withajoint15kmEuropeanandaFPS3kmAlpinedomain.Toallowforaclearseparationofcauseandeffectrelationships,theserunsweredoneinahighlyconstrainedsetup,usingthe same spin-up, initial and boundary condition files and a common model configuration withsystematically altered microphysics, boundary layer, surface layer, aerosol, and shallow cumulusconvectionschemesaswellasdifferentlandsurfacemodels.

Keywords: CORDEX FPS, L-A coupling, convection-permitting,WRF RCM


A2-P-07

SimulatedclimateextremesintheYangtzeRiverBasin,usingtheregionalclimatemodelWRF

ZhiyuJiang,ShanghaiInstituteofTechnology,China

ZhiyuJiang,ShanghaiInstituteofTechnology,China;ZhanTian,SouthernUniversityofScienceandTechnology,China;GuangtaoDong,ShanghaiClimateCentre,China;ErasmoBuonomo,Metoffice

HadleyCentre,UnitedKingdom

Abstract：A9-yr(2005-2013)WeatherResearchandforecast(WRF)Modelregionalclimatesimulationwas evaluated over Yangtz River Basin (YRB). The analysis assesses the spatial and temporalcharacteristicsofclimateextremes,usingaselectionofclimateindices.Twonesteddomainsat9-and1.5-kmresolutionareexaminedovertheresearcharea,usingconvectionparameterizationschemeorconvectionpermittingscheme,separately .Thesimulationresultsarecomparedwiththeobservedtemperatureandrainfalltoverifymodesuitability.Theresultsshowthat:1)Atbothcoarseandfineresolutions,WRFcansimulatethetemporalandspatialdistributionofprecipitationandtemperature,including extreme climate events; 2) convection permitting significantly improves the simulationresultsforprecipitation;3)themodelhasagoodreproductionoftheaveragetemperature,butthesimulationofhightemperatureandlowtemperatureisnotideal,andhighresolutiondidnotshowimprovementinresults.Basedontheseconsequences,theauthorsbelievethattheWRFmodelhasreliableclimatesimulationresultsinYangtzRiverBasin,includingthespatialandtemporaldistributionof climateextremes, and the convectionpermitmodel in this region isbetter than the convectiveparameterizationschemeforprecipitationsimulation.Thisstudyprovidesahigh-resolutionclimatedescriptionforimpactstudiesandwillalsoprovideareferenceforclimatesimulationdrivenbygeneralcirculationmodels.

Keywords: Convection-permitting model, Regional Climate Model, Extreme climate, Yangtz River Basin


A2-P-08

Testingofnon-hydrostaticcoreofRegCMandmicrophysicsovertheCarpathians

BushraKhalid,InternationalIslamicUniversity,Islamabad,Pakistan/InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis,Laxenburg,Austria,Pakistan

BushraKhalid,InternationalIslamicUniversity,Islamabad,Pakistan/InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis,Laxenburg,Austria,Pakistan;ShaukatAli,GlobalChangeImpactStudiesCenter,Pakistan;AzmatHayatKhan,RegionalMeteorologicalCenter,Quetta,Pakistan,Pakistan

Thisstudy isabouttestingofnon-hydrostaticcoreofRegCMandmicrophysicsovertheCarpathianMountains.CarpathiansareamountainrangeacrosstheEasternandCentralEuropeforminganarcof ~1,500 km long, with eastward continuation of Alps. The region of study comprises of theCarpathianswiththeHungary-Slovakiadomainat4kmresolutionfortheyears2006-2015.Thetwosetupswithnon-hydrostaticdynamicalcoresandmicrophysicsundermoistureschemeweremade.Setup1usedKain-Fritschforcumulusconvectiveschemewhileitiskeptoffforthesetup2.Averagedaily temperature and daily precipitation over the study region (Hungary-Slovakia) for 10 kmobservationsand20kmcoarsedomainwereobserved.Bothsetupsand20kmcoarseresolutionshowshighervaluesofdailytemperatureovertheHungaryascomparedtoobservationswhereasitshowslowervaluesofprecipitationascomparedtoobservations.Similarly,bothsetupsshowhighervaluesfor daily temperature over Slovakia whereas lower values of precipitation as compared toobservations.The resultsandcomparisons showthat themodelperformsbetterwith theSlovakiadomain. A larger domain for the high-resolution simulation may improve the results over theCarpathians.Thelong-timespanexperimentsmayshowbetterresults.

Keywords: microphysics,non-hydrostatic,temperature,precipitation,Carpathians


A2-P-09

SensitivityoftemperatureandprecipitationtophysicalparameterizationschemesofRegCM4overMindanao,Philippines

J.C.AlbertIPeralta,AteneodeManilaUniversity,RegionalClimateSystemsLaboratory,ManilaObservatory,Philippines

J.C.AlbertIPeralta,AteneodeManilaUniversity,RegionalClimateSystemsLaboratory,ManilaObservatory,Philippines;JenniferTibay,JulieMaeDado,FayeAbigailCruz,RegionalClimate

SystemsLaboratory,ManilaObservatory,Philippines;GemmaTeresaNarisma,RegionalClimateSystemsLaboratory,ManilaObservatory/AteneodeManilaUnviversity,Philippines;FredolinTangang,JunengLiew,CentreforEarthSciencesandEnvironment,FacultyofScienceand

Technology,UniversitiKebangsaanMalaysia,Malaysia,Malaysia;ThanhNgo-Duc,TanPhan-Van,VietnamAcademyofScienceandTechnology,Vietnam;JerasornSantisirisomboon,Departmentof

MarineScience,FacultyofScience,ChulalongkornUniversity,Thailand;PatamaSinghruck,RamkhamhaengUniversityCenterofRegionalClimateChangeandRenewableEnergy(RUCORE),

RamkhamhaengUniversity,Thailand,Thailand;DodoGunawan,CenterforClimateChangeInformation,AgencyforMeteorologyClimatologyandGeophysics(BMKG),Indonesia,Indonesia;EdvinAldrian,AgencyforAssessmentandApplicationofTechnology(BPPT),Indonesia,Indonesia

TheislandofMindanao,Philippinesiskeyagriculturalregionofthecountryknowntobevulnerabletoextreme climate events whose extent and dynamics are still poorly understood. As part of theSoutheastAsiaRegionalClimateDownscaling/CoordinatedRegionalClimateDownscalingExperiment-SoutheastAsia(SEACLID/CORDEX-SoutheastAsia)project,thisstudyfirstexaminesthesensitivityofsimulatedtemperatureandrainfallofMindanaousing18differentcumulusparameterizationschemesoftheICTPRegionalClimateModel(RegCM)version4.3at25kmresolutionfortheperiod1990-2007.Thebest-performingcumulusschemeisthenusedforsimulationsusingRegCM4.3.7overthesamedomain at a finer 5km resolution and compared with output from the newly-introducednonhydrostaticconfiguration.TheobservationdatasetsAPHRODITEv1808andCHIRPSv2wasusedasbasisfortemperatureandprecipitation,respectively.Forallconfigurationsat25km,consistentcoldbias (1-4°C) andand large rainfallRMSEvalues (>5mm/day) areobservedovermountainousareaswhilewarmbias(1-2°C)existsoversoutherncoastsoftheisland.TheparametrizationthatrecordedtheleastbiasandbestmetricsisGrelloverlandandEmanueloveroceanwithZengoceanroughnessparameteriocnrough=2.Ontheotherhand,configurationsusingGrelloverbothlandandoceanandtheKuoschemerankedlowestamongallmetrics.

Keywords: Philippine climate, cumulus parametrization, nonhydrostatic model, CORDEX SEA


A2-P-10

Analysisofhazardouseventsenvironmentinpresentandfuturescenariobymulti-modelsapproachinconvectionpermittingmode

EmanuelaPichelli,ICTP-AbdusSalamInternationalCentreforTheoreticalPhysics,Italy

EmanuelaPichelli,ErikaCoppola,FilippoGiorgi,ICTP-AbdusSalamInternationalCentreforTheoreticalPhysics,Italy;TeamCORDEX-FPSconvectionmodelproviders,EURO-CORDEXcommunity

SevereprecipitationeventsinEurope,togetherwithotherweatherandclimaterelatedhazards,havelargeimpactonpeople’slife,economyandecosystem.ThisisparticurlarytrueintheMediterraneanareabecauseof its complexmorphology,where it is expected thatawarmer climatewill increasethermalinstabilityandfrequencyofsevereprecipitationevents.

Onemethodforassessingtrendsaboutoccurenceandintensityofwethazardsistostudyenvironmentconditions favorable to their development by using correlated quantities such for example CAPE,availablefrommodelsimulations.

Evenifthedynamicaldownscalingcommunitymadeenormousadvancestoovercomethelimitationoftoocoarseresolutioninrepresentingsubscalemechanisms,theconvectionparameterizations,evenat high resolution, still have the issue of underestimating instability processes outside of cloudcoulums.Inthiscontestthenewgenerationofclimatesimulationsattheconvectionpermittingscalerepresentonesuitablemean for theapplicationofproxymethods, for theirability in representingexplicitelymesoscaleinitiationofconvectiveprocesses.

We will present the results of a convection-permitting multi models ensemble belonging to theCORDEX-FPS convection, analyzing some proxy variables correlated to potential initiation ofconvectiontoassesstheensembleabilitytorepresentthepresentclimatologyofseverewethazardsovercentralEuropeandMediterranean.

The studyofpresent trendsprovidesabaseline for the interpretationof results carriedout in theperspectiveofafutureclimatescenario(RCP8.5),providingapictureofthechangeofsevereeventsovertheMediterraneanregions.

Keywords: convection permitting modeling,climate change, precipitation hazards


A2-P-11

SimulatedprecipitationinconvectionpermittingscalesusingREMO-NH

ArmelleRecaRemedio,ClimateServiceCenterGermany(GERICS),Helmholtz-ZentrumGeesthacht,Germany

ArmelleRecaRemedio,ThomasFrisius,KevinSieck;ClaasTeichmann,DanielaJacob,ClimateServiceCenterGermany(GERICS),Helmholtz-ZentrumGeesthacht,Germany

Movingtowardsconvectionpermittingsimulationsuptofewkilometersscaleareemergingsolutionsto the challenge and complexities in simulating different convective phenomena especially overmountainous regions. This study ismotivated to identify the regionswhere convection permittingmodelat3kmhaveahigherskillinsimulatingprecipitationcomparedtoitscoarserdrivingmodelofabout12km.UndertheframeworkoftheHorizon2020EuropeanClimatePrediction(EUCP)Project,convection permitting simulations using the non-hydrostatic regionalmodel REMO-NH have beenperformedforseveralEuropeanregionsintheERA-Interimperiod2000-2009.TheREMO-NHmodelhasahorizontalresolutionof0.0275degreeand49verticallevelsandwasdrivenbytheREMOmodelfrom the EURO-CORDEX Ensemble. During the conference,wewill show results of three domainscovering the northern, central, and Alpine regions of Europe. We made a first evaluation of theprecipitationfortheCentralEuropeandomainthatcoversGermanyandtheAlps.ThefineresolutionofREMO-NHshowsmuchmoredetailsintheprecipitationfieldincomparisontothecorrespondingEURO-CORDEXREMOrunat0.11degreeresolution.ThisresultwasespeciallytrueintheAlpsandtheGerman mid-range mountains where higher precipitation arises. A comparison with the REGNIEdatasetoftheGermanWeatherServicerevealedthattheEURO-CORDEXsimulationhassomebiasesinthemountainousregionsandunderestimatestheprecipitationintheBlackForestthroughoutthewholeyear.TheconvectionpermittingREMO-NHsimulationreducedthesebiasestosomedegree.However,awetbiasappearsineasternpartofGermanyduringtheDJFandMAMseasons.TheBrierSkill Score has been used to evaluate the time series of daily precipitation totals of simulationscomparedtotheobservationaldatasets.ItwasfoundthatREMO-NHhasaddedvalueinmanyregionsduringtheDJFandJJAseasonandintheupperRhineValleythroughoutthewholeyear.TheabsenceofaddedvalueinmostregionsduringtheMAMandSONseasonscanlikelybeexplainedbythewetbiasandthehighernoiseinsimulationswithoutconvectiveparameterization.

Keywords: precipitation, convection permitting model, REMO


A2-P-12

EvaluationofWRFregionalclimatemodelataconvection-permittingresolutionovereasternChina

JianpingTang,SchoolofAtmosphericSciences,NanjingUniersity,China

Convection-permitting(CP)simulationusingtheWeatherResearchandForecasting(WRF)modelat4-kmresolutionareanalyzedtounderstandthediurnalcharacteristicsofrainfallovereasternChina.Themodelproducesaccuraterepresentationsoftheobservedmeanrainfallandtheupper-tropospherecirculations.Thelow-troposphericwindandthesurfacecycloneconvergencecontributemoretotheseasonal precipitation. Compared to theCN05.1, thewet day intensity of summerprecipitation inCMORPHdatasetismuchstronger,however,themodelresultsaremoreinlinewiththelater.TheCPsimulationproducesasinglediurnalpeakofannualprecipitationamountoverlandataround1700LST,whichis1haheadthanCMORPHandtendstooverestimatethepeakvalue.Asforthesummerdiurnalvariation features, CMORPH shows the higher frequency over the intense precipitation areas. Themodelcansimulatetheland-seadiurnalphasecontrastwellbutoverestimatesthediurnalvariationsofprecipitationamount,precipitationfrequencyandprecipitationintensity.Ingenerally,themodelleddiurnal precipitation shows good agreement with CMORPH, albeit with a little timing and someintensity differences. Themaximumof precipitation amount and precipitation frequency inmodelevidentlyoccurearlier1-2hthanCMORPHbutthemodeleddiurnalphaseofprecipitationintensityislesscoherent.ThoughtheCPsimulationcannotcatchthesecondarymorningpeakofPIandmidnightpeakofPF,theeastwardpropagatingconvectioniswellcaptured.

Keywords: Convection-Permitting resolution, diurnal variation


A2-P-13

Gray-zonesimulationsofrainfallovertheUAEandArabianPeninsula

SouravTaraphdar,NewYorkUniversityAbuDhabi,UAE,UnitedStates

SouravTaraphdar,OlivierMPauluis,NewYorkUniversity;NewYorkUniversityAbuDhabi,UnitedStates;LulinXue,HuaXinChuangZhiSci.&Tecj.LLC;NationalCenterforAtmosphericResearch,

China;AjayaRavindran,NewYorkUniversityAbuDhabi,UAE

AcloudpermittingsimulationsaretestedusingWeatherResearchandForecasting(WRF)modeloverUnitedArabEmirates(UAE)andArabianPeninsulaattheso-calledgray-zoneresolution,aboutat9-kmformultipleyears.Suchresolutionisbothtoocoarsetoaccuratelysimulateconvectiveupdrafts,and too fine to relyon theunderlyingaveragingapproximation thatare inherent tomostcumulusparameterization fordeepconvection.Yet,manystudieshavedemonstrated thatcloudpermittingmodel at the gray-zone resolution can capturemany regional precipitation patterns, including theMaddenJulianOscillationandtheIndianSummerMonsoon.

Inthisstudy,aregionalconfigurationoftheWRFmodelisshowntocapturethespatialdistributionofprecipitationover theArabianPeninsula aswell as the timingofoccurrencesofprecipitationwithrespect to TRMM3B42 and GPM observations. Circulation features are also realistic in WRF.WintertimeprecipitationeventsarecrediblycapturedbytheWRF,butsystematicdrybiasesoccurduring summer precipitation. Wintertime precipitation events are for the most part initiated byextratropicalintrusions.MidtroposphericpotentialvorticityanomaliesinducesoutherlywindovertheArabianPeninsula,whichtriggeramoisturetransportfromtheArabianandRedSeas.Thisinflowofmoisturefeedsprecipitationoverthefrontalregion.Incontrast,SummertimeprecipitationovertheUAEisstronglytiedtothelocalland-seacontrastanditsinteractionwithregionaltopography.Whilethe9-kmconfigurationisunabletoreproducetheSummertimerainfall,itdoescapturethevariabilityinprecipitablewaterandothercloudproperties.Thissuggeststhatthecoarseresolutionisinsufficienttocapturetheconvectiveinitiationofsummertimeprecipitationevents.A10-yearslongsimulationswith the WRF model is used to investigate the variability of the precipitation over the Arabianpeninsulaandalsoitssensitivitytothechangeinlargescaleatmosphericpatterns.

Keywords: Grey zone resolution, winter precipitation, moisture transport


A2-P-14

Sensitivityofmonsoonprecipitationtophysicalparameterizationsinacloudpermittingregionalmodel

SouravTaraphdar,NewYorkUniversityAbuDhabi,UAE

SouravTaraphdar,OlivierMPauluis,NewYorkUniversity;NewYorkUniversityAbuDhabi,UnitedStates

Simulationswithahigh-resolutioncloudpermittingatmosphericmodelhavebeenshowntoaccuratelycapturemanyfeaturesoftheIndianSummerMonsoon(ISM)includingthetimingoftheonsetandtheintra-seasonalvariability.Suchsimulationsarehoweverhighlysensitivetothephysicalconfigurationsofthemodels.Inparticular,weinvestigateherehowchangesintheparameterizationusedforcloudmicrophysics(MP)andplanetaryboundarylayer(PBL)canseverelyaffecttheprecipitationpatternsoverIndia.

Inthisstudy,theISMissimulatedwiththeWeatherResearchandForecast(WRF)modelatahorizontalresolutionof9kmoverthesouth-eastAsianmonsoonregion(39E–111E&EQ–38N) for threedifferentyears,i.e.2007,2008and2015,whicharerepresentativeofanearly,normalanddelayedmonsoononsetrespectively.TwodifferentPBL(ACM2andMYNN)andMP(ThompsonandWDM6)schemesaretestedoverthe3years.ItisshownthatthechoiceforthePBLschemehasadramaticimpactontheISM.Indeed,whilesimulationsperformedwithACM2capturesmostofthecirculationsandprecipitationspatternsoverIndia,simulationsusingMYNN,leadtoaverysubstantialreductioninrainfall and an overall weakening of the atmospheric circulation. In contrast, the impacts of themicrophysical schemes aremuch less pronounced. Simulations with the Thompson scheme beingbetterabletocapturetherainfallovertheWesternGhatregionsandArabianSea,whiletheWDM6schemesproducedexcessrainfalloverNortherIndiaandtheHimalayanFoothills.

To assess how changes in physical parameterization affects the over rainfall over South Asia, weanalyzeboththeenergyandwaterbudgetsofthesubcontinent.Itisshownherethatthechangesinprecipitation are not directly driven by local changes in evaporation. Rather, changes the regionaldistributionoftheenergysourcesandsinksmodifytheatmosphericcirculation,whichinturnsaffectsthedistributionofrainfall.Itisarguedherethatsystematicstudyoftheenergyandwaterbudgetcanprovide important guidelines for understanding the sensitivity of precipitationpatterns in regionalclimatemodels.

Keywords: cloud permitting model, evaporation, energy and water budget


A2-P-15

Modelvalidationmethodologyofshort-durationprecipitationextremes

BertVanSchaeybroeck,RoyalMeteorologicalInstituteofBelgium,Belgium

HansVandeVyver,RafiqHamdi;BertVanSchaeybroeck,RoyalMeteorologicalInstituteofBelgium,Belgium

The estimation of the impact of climate change on short-duration rainfall extremes is especiallyrelevantinanurbancontext.Indeed,duetosurfaceimpermeability,citiesarehighlysusceptibletointenseprecipitationeventsandcancauseflashfloodswithhighsocio-economicimpact.

However,toestimatetheclimate-changeimpact,onerequirestheavailabilityoflongtimeseriesofsub-hourly data from convective-permitting model runs. Moreover for model validationscorrespondingobservationsarerequired.Allsuchdataisscarcesuchthattheestimationofextremerainfallisassociatedwithlargeuncertainties.WithintheURCLIMprojectthataimstoprovideclimateservices,differentuncertaintiesrelatedtoextremeprecipitationandtheirprojectionsarequantified.Toachievethisgoal,differentqualitativefeaturesofextremeprecipitationareaddressed.Thesearetested on both observational datasets across Western and North Europe, and on climate modelensembles(CORDEX/CORDEX.be).

More specifically we focus on Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves with multi-scalingcharacteristicsandtheClausius-Clapeyron(CC)scalingbetweenextremerainfallandtemperature.Theuncertainties associatedwith the statisticalmodeling are quantified. The statisticalmodelling anduncertaintyestimationof(i)theIDF-characteristicsisdoneinaBayesianframework(VandeVyver,2015,2018),and(ii)thescalingpropertiesisdonewithquantileregressionandassociatedinformationcriteria.ThelatterallowstostudythedeviationsfromtheCCscalingthathaverecentlybeenfoundforhourlyextremeprecipitation.

Keywords: extreme rainfall, precipitation,model validation, IDF,Clausius-Clapeyron


A2-P-16

SynergisticeffectofhighresolutionandorographicdragparameterizationtoreduceWRFsimulatedprecipitationbiasincentralHimalaya

YanWang,TsinghuaUniversity,China

CurrentclimatemodelsusuallyhavesignificantwetbiasesintheTibetanPlateauandhaveparticulardifficultiesinrepresentingtheroleoftheCentralHimalaya(CH),wherethetopographyisverysteepandterrainisverycomplex.Inordertoquantifyprecipitationbiasandimproveclimatemodelinginthisregion,anetworkconsistingof14raingaugeswassetupatelevations>2800ma.s.l.alongaCHvalley.NumericalexperimentswithWeatherResearchandForecastingmodel(WRF)weredesignedtoinvestigatetheeffectofmesoscaleandmicroscaleterrainonwatervaportransportandprecipitation.Thecontrolcaseusesahighresolution(0.03o)toexplicitlyresolvethemesoscaleterrainandswitchesonaTurbulentOrographicFormDrag(TOFD)schemetorepresentsub-gridmicroscaleterraineffect.Asaresult,thiscasehasthelowestbiasinthesimulatedprecipitation.TherolesoftheresolutionandtheTOFDschemewerethenanalyzedthroughcomparisonwithsensitivitycasesthateitherusealowerresolution (0.09o) or switch off the TOFD scheme. It is found that the simulations with the highresolutioncannotonlyincreasethespatialconsistency(correlationcoefficient:0.84-0.92)betweentheobservedandsimulatedprecipitation,butalsoconsiderably reduce thewetbiasbymore than200%.Therefore, resolvingmesoscale terrainplaysa leading role inprecipitationmodeling for thisterrain-complexregion.TheTOFDschemealsoreducestheprecipitationbiasatalmostallstationsintheCH;itfunctionstoreduceprecipitationintensityandreducesmoreheavyprecipitation(>10mmhr-1).BothhighresolutionandTOFDenhancetheorographicdragtoslowdownwind;asaresult,lesswatervapor is transported from lowlandto thehighaltitudesofCH,causingmoreprecipitationatlowlandsouthtotheCHand lessathighaltitudesofCH.Therefore, forthishighlyterrain-complexregion,itiscrucialtouseahighresolutiontodepictmesoscalecomplexterrainandaTOFDschemetoparameterizethedrageffectduetomicroscalecomplexterrain.

Keywords: WRF, precipitation in central Himalaya, orographic drag parameterization, high resolution


A3: Downscaling tools and

methods

ORAL PRESENTATIONS

Parallel Session A: Advances in regional downscaling A3: Downscaling tools and methods

Statisticaldownscalingwithdeeplearning:AcontributiontoCORDEX-CORE

JorgeBaño-Medina,SantanderMeteorologyGroup,InstituteofPhysicsofCantabria(IFCA),CSIC-UniversityofCantabria,Santander,Spain

JorgeBaño-Medina,RodrigoManzanas,JoséManuelGutiérrez,SantanderMeteorologyGroup,InstituteofPhysicsofCantabria(IFCA),CSIC-UniversityofCantabria,Santander,Spain-

Machinelearningisnowadaysaveryactiveresearchareainmanydisciplinesandmajorbreakthroughshavebeenrecentlyobtainedwithdeepconvolutionalneuralnetworksinmanycomplexproblems.Thisis due to the ability of deep learning to efficiently treat high-dimensional spatiotemporalinputs extracting high-level feature representations with convolutional layers. Moreover, thetechnological advances boosted by data science applications provide efficient computationalframeworks (e.g. TensorFlow) to transparently train these models on modern computinginfrastructures using big datasets. As a result, deep learning provides an efficient alternative forstatisticaldownscalingoverwidedomains,andsomepreliminarysuccessfulapplicationshavebeenalreadyreported.However,therobustnessandextrapolationcapabilityofthesemodelshasyettobetestedforplausibleapplicationsinclimatechangeproblems.

Inthisworkweanalyzethepotentialofdeeplearning,andparticularlyconvolutionalneuralnetworks,assuitablestatisticaldownscalingtechniquesforclimatechangeapplications.Inparticular,weanalyzecross-validation (using ERA-Interim predictors) and extrapolation (using GCM outputs) capabilitiesof different configurations of increasing complexity (starting from simple convolutionalmodels)obtainingthebestconfigurationstodownscaleprecipitationandtemperature.Thisvalidationstudy is firstperformedover theEURO-CORDEXdomain,and it is thenextended tootherCORDEXdomainstotesttransferabilityoftheresults.Finally,wedescribethecontributiontoCORDEX-COREandtheresultingpublicdatasetwhichisavailabletothedownscalingcommunityforintercomparisonstudies.

Keywords: deep learning, machine learning, statistical downscaling, climate change, CORDEX-CORE


ReproducibleStatisticalDownscalingwiththeclimate4RR-BasedFramework:ThedownscaleRpackage

JoséManuelGutiérrez,SantanderMeteorologyGroup,Dpt.ofAppliedMathematicsandComputerScience,UniversityofCantabria,Santander,Spain-

JoaquínBedia,SantanderMeteorologyGroup,Dpt.ofAppliedMathematicsandComputerScience,UniversityofCantabria,Santander,Spain;MaialenIturbide,JorgeBaño-Medina,Santander

MeteorologyGroup,InstituteofPhysicsofCantabria(IFCA),CSIC-UniversityofCantabria,Santander,Spain;RodrigoManzanas,SixtoHerrera,SantanderMeteorologyGroup,Dpt.ofApplied

MathematicsandComputerScience,UniversityofCantabria,Santander,Spain;DanielSan-Martín,PredictiaIntelligentDataSolutions,SME,Santander,Spain-;MikelLegasa,AntonioS.Cofiño,JoséManuelGutiérrez,SantanderMeteorologyGroup,InstituteofPhysicsofCantabria(IFCA),CSIC-

UniversityofCantabria,Santander,Spain

climate4R (https://github.com/SantanderMetGroup/climate4R) is an R-based open framework forclimatedata access, harmonization andpost-processing. The framework allows for comprehensiveend-to-end sectoral reproducible applications through the interoperability of different specific Rpackages.OneofthecorepackagesisloadeR,theclimate4Rcatalog-andsubset-orienteddataaccesstool from either local or remote (OpeNDAP) data sources, which is transparently linked to theSantanderClimateDataService(UDG),providingawidecatalogueofpopulardatasets(incl.CMIPandCORDEX)toclimate4Rusers.Aspartoftheclimate4Recosystem,thepackagedownscaleRprovidestools for bias adjustment and statistical downscaling, covering the most popular techniques (e.g.analogs,LMsandGLMs,andneuralnetworks),andallowingformultipleexperimentconfigurationsand cross-validation options. climate4R was used to contribute to the VALUE intercomparisonexperiment,andwillbeusedinongoingexperimentsintheframeworkofEURO-CORDEX.

InordertoillustratethefunctionalitiesofdownscaleRandclimate4R,wepresentafullyreproducibleworkedexamplefromtheVALUEcontribution,obtaininglocalclimatechangeprojectionsforasetof86stationsoverEurope.WefirstreplicatetheVALUE1AExperiment(withreanalysispredictors)usinganextendedsetofmethods.Then,wedescribeongoingworkwithGCMpredictorstocomputetheclimatechangesignalforthelateXXIcenturyandanalyzethespreadresultingfromtheensembleofstatisticaldownscalingmethodsused.

Climatedataprocessing typically involvescomplexerror-proneoperations. In this sense,climate4Rprovides a unique framework where common tasks such as statistical downscaling can bestraightforwardlyperformed ina few linesof code.Thedevelopmentof climate4R isacommunityeffortboostedbythecontributiontoseveralinternationalinitiatives,suchastheIPCCWGIactivitiesoftheAtlasChapter.

Keywords: R package, statistical downscaling, reproducibility, VALUE experiment, climate services


Challengesofstatistical-dynamicaldownscalingofeuro-cordexregionalclimatemodelsforimpactstudiesatthecityscale

BenjaminLeRoy,CentreNationaldeRecherchesMétéorologiquesCNRM,France

BenjaminLeRoy,AudeLemonsu,RobertSchoetter,ValéryMasson,CentreNationaldeRecherchesMétéorologiquesCNRM,France

Today,thespatialresolutionofRegionalClimateModels(RCM)isgettingmoreandmoreprecise.Itisnonetheless insufficient for impact studies at city scale andurban climate services adapted to theneeds of urban planning stakeholders. In addition, urban issues of urban heat island mitigation,improvement of thermal comfort, energy efficiency, orwatermanagement, require specific urbanclimatemodelstoberun.MultipleapproachestospatiallydownscaletheRCMsimulationshavebeendevelopedovertheyears,eachwithdifferentprosandcons.

Wedevelopedastatistical-dynamicaldownscalingmethodspecifictourbanstudiestospatiallyrefinetheatmosphericfieldscomingfromRCMprojections,whileaddingthecity'ssignatureinthelowlevelsofatmosphere.TheapproachisbasedonacorrectionmethodofRCM'satmosphericfieldsbylocalweathertypes(WT,Hidalgoetal.,2014)foreachofwhichtheurbanheatislandisexpectedtohavespecificstructureandintensity.SomerepresentativedaysofeachWTweresimulatedpreviouslyat250-mresolutionwiththeatmosphericmodelMeso-NHandanurbanclimatemodeltocharacterizetheeffectofcityonatmosphericfieldsoftemperature,humidityandwind(Schoetteretal.,inrev).

UsingParisareaasacasestudy, themethod iscurrently implementedandtested for9couplesofGCM/RCMprojections fromEURO-CORDEXbut first themethodology is tested over an evaluationperiodagainstbothadynamicallydownscaledsimulationandasetofurbanobservations.

Differentmethodologicalaspectsarelookedintosuchas:(1)Theurbanmodelsensitivitytodifferentforcingtimesteps; (2)Themethodneededtoreconstructatmosphericconditionsabovetheurbancanopylevelfromthesurface;(3)TheconnectionbetweentheWTintheRCMandtheWTintheurbansimulationinpresentclimate;and(4)TheevolutionofWTinfutureclimateintermofintensityandfrequency.

Keywords: statistical-dynamical downscaling, weather type, urban climate, impact studies


Acomparisonofstatisticaldownscalingtechniquesfordailyprecipitation:ResultsfromtheCORDEXFlagshipPilotStudyinSouthAmerica

MariaLauraBettolli,UniversityofBuenosAires-CONICET,Argentina

MariaLauraBettolli,UniversityofBuenosAires-CONICET,Argentina;JoséManuelGutiérrez,CSIC/UniversityofCantabria,Spain;MaialenIturbide,JorgeBaño-Medina,UniversityofCantabria,

Spain;RadanHuth,CharlesUniversityinPrague,CzechRepublic;SilvinaSolman,UniversityofBuenosAires-CIMA/CONICET,Argentina;JesúsFernández,UniversityofCantabria,Spain;RosmeriPorfiriodaRocha,UniversityofSãoPaulo,Brazil;MartaLlopart,SãoPauloStateUniversity,Brazil;

AlvaroLavín-Gullón,UniversityofCantabria,Spain;ErikaCoppola,InternationalCentreforTheoreticalPhysics,Italy;SinChanChou,NationalInstituteforSpaceResearch,Brazil;MoiraDoyle,

MatíasOlmo,MartinFeijoo,UniversityofBuenosAires-CIMA/CONICET,Argentina

SoutheastSouthAmerica(SESA)isoneoftheregionsoftheplanetwhereextremeprecipitationeventsoccur and have high impact on human activities. These extreme events result from the complexinteractionsofabroadrangeofscales,thereforetheirstudy,modellingandprojectionsinachangingclimatecontinue tobeachallenging task.TheCORDEXFlagshipPilotStudy inSouthAmerica (FPS-SESA) addresses this topic in order to advance in the understanding and modelling of extremeprecipitationeventsbasedoncoordinatedexperimentsusingdifferentdownscalingapproaches. Inthisworkwepresent the results fromthecollaborativeaction to intercomparedifferent statisticaldownscalingtechniques insimulatingdailyprecipitationinSESAwithspecialfocusonextremes.Tothis end, seven statistical downscaling models based on the regression and analog families wereevaluatedoverSESA.Thesensitivitytothedifferentpredictorandpredictanddatasetsweretestedusing two reanalyses (ECMWFERA-Interimand Japanese55-yearReanalysis JRA-55) and twodailyprecipitation (station data andMSWEP) datasets. Themodelswere calibrated and cross-validatedduringthe1979-2009periodandalsoevaluatedintheindependentwarmseasonof2009-2010.Thisseason,withrecordofextremeprecipitationevents,isthetargetseasonchosenintheFPS-SESAtoperform the dynamical downscaling simulations as well, and therefore it allows for comparisonsbetween both approaches. The results show that the methods are more skillful when combinedpredictors including circulation variables at middle levels and local humidity at low levels of theatmosphereareconsidered.Theperformanceofthemodelsisalsosensitivetoreanalysischoice.Themethods show overall good performance in simulating daily precipitation characteristics over theregion,butnosinglemodelperformsbestoverallvalidationmetricsandaspectsevaluated.

Keywords: Flagship Pilot Study, Precipitation extremes, Statistical Downscaling


Ahybridstatisticaldownscalingapproachbasedonnonstationarytimeseriesdecomposition

XintongLi,ShandongUniversity,China

XintongLi,XiaodongZhang,ShandongUniversity,China

Downscaling techniques are effective to bridge the scale gap between global circulation models(GCMs) and hydrological models. Statistical downscaling methods are prevalent due to theiradvantagesofhighcomputationalefficiencyandaccuracy.However,statisticaldownscalingmethodsarebasedonanassumptionthatthestatisticalrelationshipsbetweenoutputsoflarge-scaleclimaticmodelandclimaticobservationofregionalareaswillremainconstant inthefuture.Suchstatisticalrelationshipsmaybecome less reliableunder changing climatic conditionswhere the relationshipsbetween large-scaleandfine-scaleweatherpatternswouldbenon-stationary.Addressingthenon-stationarity of downscaling climatic data is crucial to regional climate studies. How to effectivelycharacterizedynamicstatisticalrelationshipsfacingnon-stationaryweatherinformationischallenging.Inthisstudy,ahybridstatisticaldownscalingmethodwasdevelopedthroughintegrationofbivariateempiricalmodedecomposition(BEMD)whichisanadaptivenon-stationarytimeseriesdecompositiontechnique and machine learning into a general framework to address the non-stationarity. Theproposed method can reduce the effects of non-stationarity on statistical downscaling bydecomposing climatic data into different independent components at multiple time-frequencyresolutions. It was applied to downscale CanESM2 monthly precipitate and temperature for twoweather stations in California, USA from 1950 to 2005 to verify its accuracy. Although not allcomponentswerestationaryafterdisaggregating,themainstationaryweatherpatternwascapturedand the interactions of different non-stationary componentswere separated. The performance ofdownscalingtemperaturewassatisfying(R2>0.9),buttheperformanceofdownscalingprecipitatewasnot very satisfying. This is partly the result that precipitation is more sensitive to instantaneousweatherpatterns.FurtherimprovementsareneededforBEMDtorealizeperfectdisaggregating.Theproposedmethodcanprovideaviableoptiontodealwiththenon-stationaryinstatisticaldownscaling.

Keywords: downscaling, GCMs, bivariate empirical mode decomposition, machine learning, nonstationary


Combiningglobalandregionalmodelsto“fillthematrix”

OleB.Christensen,DanishMeteorologicalInstitute(DMI),Denmark

OleB.Christensen,DanishMeteorologicalInstitute(DMI),Denmark;ErikKjellström,SMHI,Sweden;GrigoryNikulin,SMHI,Sweden;SiljeSørland,ETHZ,Switzerland;ErikvanMeijgaard,KNMI,

Netherlands;ErikaCoppola,ICTP,Italy;ErasmoBuonomo,UKMetOffice,UnitedKingdom;SamuelSomot,Météo-France,France;RobertVautard,IPSL,France;ClaasTeichmann,GERICS,Germany

TheCOPERNICUSprojectPRINCIPLESisamajorundertakingtosupplementthealreadylargecollectionofEUR-11high-resolutionCORDEXsimulationsoverEurope.Beforethestartoftheprojectin2017atotalof60simulationsexistedwithdatapubliclyavailableintheESGF,distributedovertheemissionscenariosRCP2.6,RCP4.5andRCP8.5.

The9partnersofPRINCIPLES (SMHI,GERICS,KNMI,DMI, IPSL,MF,ETHZ,UKMOand ICTP)have9different regional climate models available (RCA4, REMO2015, RACMO22E, HIRHAM5, WRF381P,ALADIN63,CcrCLM,HadRM3-GA7.05andRegCM4.6.1).Theprojectfundingmakespossiblearoughdoublingofthepre-existingmulti-modelensemblewiththeadditionof66simulations.

In this poster, the thoughts behind assigning slots in the GCM-RCM-Scenario matrix for thisconsiderable amount of additional simulations will be described, and the resulting schedule ofsimulations will be presented. In quite general terms, the choice stands between aiming for ahomogeneousdistributionofsimulationsinthematrixandaimingforcompletionof2dsub-slicesinthe3dmatrix.Theresultingchoiceleanstowardsthelatterofthetwooptions.MainlybecausethisstrategyfacilitatesanalysesofGCM,RCM,andscenarioinfluenceontheresultingclimatechange,butalsobecausetheevolutionofbothglobalandregionalmodelsandhencetheconstantadditionofnewmodelswilleventuallymakeanyinitiallyhomogeneousmatrixlesshomogeneous.

Keywords: Euro-cordex, copernicus, GCM/RCM matrix


RCMES-basedStatisticalDownscalingofCORDEXSouthAsiaRCMoutputoverIndia

MaheshRamadoss,IndianInstituteofTropicalMeteorology,India

MaheshRamadoss,SanjayJ,SandipIngle,IndianInstituteofTropicalMeteorology,India;HuikyoLee,JetPropulsionLaboratory,CaliforniaInstituteofTechnology,UnitedStates;KrishnanR,Indian

InstituteofTropicalMeteorology,India

ThestatisticaldownscalingtoolkitprovidedasapartoftheJetPropulsionLaboratory(JPL)’sRegionalClimateModelEvaluationSystem(RCMES)isutilizedtodevelopaweb-basedinteractiveapplicationfor statistically downscaling the WCRP Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment(CORDEX)SouthAsiaregionalclimatemodel(RCM)outputtothefine-scalerequiredforlocalclimateimpact assessments. This web-application is useful to downscale daily maximum and minimumtemperatureandprecipitationoverselectedlocationsinIndia.Thisweb-applicationwilladdresstheusersneedforcorrectingtheerrors intheRCMoutputthatdeviatesfromobservations,usingfourstatistical downscaling methods viz., the delta addition, delta correction, quantile mapping, andasynchronous linear regression. This user-friendly application will also enhance the visibility andutilizationofCORDEXSouthAsiaRCMoutputsintheclimateimpactscommunity.

Keywords: Region Climate Models, Statistical Downscaling, Climate change


FESOM2.0inclimatesimulations:fromglobaltoregionalscales

DmitrySein,AlfredWegenerInstitute,Germany

DmitrySein,WilliamCabos,DmitrySidorenko,NikolayKoldunov,QiangWang,SergeyDanilov,AlfredWegenerInstitute,Germany

In thiswork,wepresenta setofclimatesimulationsusingahierarchyofAWIclimatemodels: theglobal AWI-CM2 (FESOM2/ECHAM6) and the regionally coupled AWI-RCM1 (FESOM2/REMO). Themain advantage and novelty of these models is its common next generation ocean componentFESOM2,whichuseunstructuredmeshes.FESOM2allowstosimulatetheglobaloceancirculationoneddy-resolvingspatialscalesfortheclimatesimulationswiththroughputof5-10modelyearsperday.

Webeginwiththedescriptionofresults fromtheglobalmodelAWI-CM2whereaneddyresolvingFESOM2meshiscoupledtotheglobalatmosphericmodelECHAM6withca.100km.resolution.TheFESOM2meshisgloballyadjustedtothequarterofthebaroclinicRossbyradiuswith2kmfineand20km coarsest resolution. This simulations are then downscaledwith the regionally coupled climatemodel AWI-RCM2. In this case FESOM2 setup remains unchanged, but the resolution of theatmosphericcomponentregionallyincreasesfrom100to12kmduetotheuseofREMO.Thisapproachallowstoavoidproblemwithboundaryconditionsfortheoceanmodelaswellaslongoceanmodelspin-up.

We investigate the impact of using an eddy-resolving ocean model and increased atmosphericresolutionontherepresentationoftheNorthAtlanticandEuropeanclimate.Inparticular,ourstrategyallowsustoexploretheimpactthattheexplicitsimulationofthemesoscaleactivityofboththeoceanandtheatmospherehasontherepresentationofmanyaspectsoftheregionalclimate,especiallytheoceancirculationandsea-icevariability.

Ourresultsarediscussedwithaspecialemphasisontheperspectivesregardingtheuseunstructuredoceanmodelsinhigh-resolutionclimatesimulations.

Keywords: climate modelling , downscaling, FESOM2


FuturechangesinwaterbalancecomponentsacrossirrigatedlandsofCentralAsiaasprojectedbyahigh-resolutionmodelingsystem

IgorShkolnik,VoeikovMainGeophysicalObservatory,RussianFed

IgorShkolnik,AnastasiaPikaleva,EkaterinaNadyozhina,AleksandraSternzat,VoeikovMainGeophysicalObservatory,RussianFed

TheeconomyofaridregionsinCentralAsiaisbasedlargelyonirrigatedagriculture,whichcriticallydependson theamountof regionalwaterdeficit. The insufficiencyofwater resources requiresanaccurateestimationofwaterbalancecomponentsfromirrigatedlandsinordertodeveloptheoptimalstrategyofwaterconsumptionacrossCentralAsia.This isparticularly important for irrigatedareaswithtypicalspatialscalesseveralkilometers,notcapturedbythemajorityofup-to-dateRCMsandthusrequiringanexplicitdescriptionofsubgridprocesses.Here,aseriesofclimatesimulationsusingMGORCM(25kmresolution)anda150-levelatmosphericboundarylayermodel(ABLM)iscarriedouttodownscalethetemperatureandwaterbalancecomponents(notablyevapotranspiration)overtheirrigatedlands.Besides,asensitivitystudyhasbeenconductedinordertoassesstheimpactofthechanges in theAral seamirrorduring the secondhalf of the20th century– early 21st centuryonregionalheatandmoisturebalanceusingtheRCM-ABLMsystem.

A30-memberensembleofregionalclimatechangeprojectionsby2050-2059relativeto1990-1999hasbeencarriedoutusingRCM-ABLMchainunderIPCCRCP8.5scenario.Theanalysisshowsthatthedeficitofmoistureovertheirrigatedareasisprojectedtoincreasebythemid-21stcenturyduringthegrowing season. This implies that the conditions for cultivating traditional agricultural crops in theregionwilldeteriorateiftheirrigationwatersupplyremainsunchangedinthefuture.

The study is supported by the Russian Science Foundation (grant№16-17-00063) and the KoreanMeteorological Administration under contract “Analysis of extreme climate change using RCPscenarios(V)”.

Keywords: ensemble climate projection, downscaling water balance


RecentprogressofJapan’sregionaldownscalingproject(SI-CAT)andCORDEXAsiaEmpirical-StatisticalDownscaling(ESD)

KoijiDairaku,NationalResearchInstituteforEarthScienceandDisasterResilience,Tsukuba,Japan

AsaJapan’snationalproject,SI-CATdevelopsreliabletechnologiestofindclimatechangeadaptationmeasuresincollaborationwithresearchersofgeoscience,socialscienceandhumanities,andofficialsoflocalgovernmentsfromthebeginningoftheprojecttoavoidandreducevariousthreatsofclimatechange.

Weconducteddynamicaldownscalingexperimentswithhorizontalgridspacingof5kmand2kmtoreproduceregionalclimateinformation.Weexaminetheperformanceoftheregionalclimatemodel(NHRCM) to represent severe precipitation events occurred around Gifu and Nagano region. Toexamine theperformance inungaugedmountainous regions, the runoffanalysiswasconducted. Itindicates the overestimation of precipitation.We conduct the ensemble downscaling experimentsusingdatabase forPolicyDecisionmaking forFutureclimatechange (d4PDF) todetect theclimatechangeimpactinthisregion.

Multi-modellargeensembleregionalclimatescenariosoverJapanandCORDEXAsiaaredevelopedbyusing CMIP5 GCMs (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) and a statistical downscaling (Bias Corrected SpatialDisaggregation (BCSD)) to investigate uncertainty of projected change associated with structuraldifferences of theGCMs for the periods of historical climate (1950-2005) and near future climate(2026-2050).Uncertaintyrangeinformationoftheregionalclimatescenariossupportvariousregionaladaptationmeasuresandinformeddecisionmaking.BasedontheSI-CATexperiences,theCORDEXAsiaESDgroupenhancesandintegratesthescienceandapplicationofdownscalingactivitiesinAsiabysharingandexchangingdata,knowledge,andtechniques.

Keywords:Dynamicaldownscaling,Statisticaldownscaling,Multi-modelensemble,CORDEX,Asia


A3: Downscaling tools and

methods


LASTNAME FIRST NAME TITLE POSTERNUMBER

ADEOLA Abiodun TrendsandvariabilityofsurfacetemperatureovertheOlifantsRivercatchment A3-P-01

ALAIN TamoffoTchioChangesinmoisturedynamicsaspotentialdriversofprecipitationchangeintheCentralAfricanregionunderglobalwarmingof1.5°Cand2°C

A3-P-02

BALMACEDAHUARTE Rocio Dynamicalandstatisticaldownscaling:intercomparisoninthreeextremetemperatureeventsinsouthernSouthAmerica A3-P-03

DAROCHA Rosmeri Inter-comparinggridresolutionimpactsinWRFandRegCM4simulationsfor2004-yearoverSouthAmerica A3-P-04

DIALLO AhmadouAliou Analysisofobservations-simulations-projectionsandScenariosProductioninGuinea A3-P-05

GUZMÁN Decker PresentclimateandclimatetrendsusingtheregionalmodelRegCM4overregionsofcomplextopographyoftheAndes. A3-P-06

INGLE SANDIP TheEarthSystemGridFederationDataNodeinIndiaforCORDEXSouthAsiaandCMIP6DataDissemination A3-P-07

LEI zhang High-resolutiontemperatureprojectionsfromPRECISindifferentregionsacrossChina A3-P-08

LI Laurent ProjectionoffuturewatercycleinEastChinawithanensembleofclimatedownscalingsimulations A3-P-09

LIANG Yuan Multi-scaleSimulationofEastAsianClimate A3-P-10

RUBANGAKENE DamascoMETEOROLOGICALDROUGHTMAGNITUDE,DURATION,INTENSITYANDFREQUENCYINTHEFUTURECLIMATEOFEASTERNTIGRAY,NORTHERNETHIOPIA.

A3-P-11

SHALTOUT Mohamed ModelingtheCurrentAtmosphericParametersTrendsforSinaiPeninsulaUsingRegCM4.7 A3-P-12

SOLMAN SILVINAHowwelldoRCMsandESDsreproducetheoccurrenceofextremeprecipitationeventsoverSoutheasternSouthAmerica?Acasestudyapproach

A3-P-13

TORMA CsabaZsolt Orographicalmodulationofregionalfinescaleprecipitationchangesignals-Europeanexamples A3-P-14

WANG Pinya FutureprojectionofheatwavesoverChinaunderglobalwarmingwithintheCORDEX-EA-IIproject A3-P-15

YANG Linyun ACaseStudyfortheImpactofNudgingParametersinWRFoverCORDEXEastAsiaPhaseIIDomain A3-P-16

YU HAO OptimizationofCMIP5ResultsBasedonMachineLearningAlgorithm A3-P-17

YUE Man AssessmentoftheBoundaryLayerHeightSimulationbyCAM-MPASoverEastAsia A3-P-18

ZHANG Ci RegionalclimatemodellingoftheCentralAsia:ConsistenciesanduncertaintiesofthedrivingGCM’sbiascorrection A3-P-19

ZHANG Mengzhuo Statisticalsignificancetestsforthedifferenceofperformancebetweentwoclimatemodels A3-P-20

ZHU XianProjectedMeanandExtremeTemperatureandPrecipitationoverCentralAsiaResultsfromDynamicalDownscalingandCCSM4

A3-P-21

ZHU Xian ProjectedTemperatureandPrecipitationChangesontheTibetanPlateau:ResultsfromDynamicalDownscalingandCCSM4 A3-P-22


A3-P-01

TrendsandvariabilityofsurfacetemperatureovertheOlifantsRivercatchment

AbiodunAdeola,SouthAfricanWeatherService,SouthAfrica

AbiodunAdeola,ThaboMakgoale,AndriesKruger,JoelBotai,SouthAfricanWeatherService,SouthAfrica-

ThisstudyexaminestrendsintemperatureusinghistoricalobservationandmodeldailyminimumandmaximumtemperaturedataovertheOlifantsRivercatchmentfortheperiod1951–2005.Anensembleofregionalclimatemodel(RCA4)simulations,forcedwithCMIP5modelsunderthe“Businessasusual”climatescenarioRCP8.5wasperformed for thecatchment for futureperiodof2006-2060.All thesimulations were obtained from the CORDEX Africa. Trends and the statistical significance of theannualandseasonalserieswerecalculatedusingthemodifiedMann-Kendalltest intheRpackage.The results indicate that the catchment has experienced increase in the frequency of warmtemperature,althoughnosignificantchangeintheshapesofthehistoricalandfuturedistributionsarediscernible.Theresults further indicate thatwarmtemperatureextremesareexpectedto increasesignificantly,continuingfromalreadysignificanthistoricaltrendsinthemeantemperatureaswellasextremes.Seasonally,thefrequencyofwarminginminimumtemperatureisstrongerintheSummerseasonofDecember,January,February(DJF)andSpringseasonofSeptember,October,November(SON)comparewithWinterseasonofJune,July,August(JJA)andAutumnseasonofMarch,April,May(MAM). The results of this study provide an understanding of the characteristics of changingtemperature, in the context of the present anthropogenic global warming and are relevant fordecision-makingprocess,especiallyforsustainabilityoftheRivercatchmentanditsresources.

Keywords: Trends,Projections, Temperature, Rainfall


A3-P-02

ChangesinmoisturedynamicsaspotentialdriversofprecipitationchangeintheCentralAfricanregionunderglobalwarmingof1.5°Cand2°C

AlainTamoffoTchio,LaboratoryforEnvironmentalModellingandAtmosphericPhysics(LEMAP),DepartmentofPhysics,UniversityofYaounde1,Cameroon

AlainTamoffoTchio,LaboratoryforEnvironmentalModellingandAtmosphericPhysics(LEMAP),DepartmentofPhysics,UniversityofYaounde1,Cameroon;WilfranMoufouma-Okia,UniversiteAfricaParisSaclay,IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)WorkingGroup1(WG1)TechnicalSupportUnit(TSU),France;AlessandroDosio,EuropeanCommission,JointResearch

Centre,Italy,;RachelJames,EnvironmentalChangeInstitute,UniversityofOxford,UnitedKingdom;WilfriedMbaPokam,DerbetiniAppolinaireVondou,LaboratoryforEnvironmentalModellingand

AtmosphericPhysics(LEMAP),DepartmentofPhysics,UniversityofYaounde1,Cameroon

Anthropogenic climate change is anticipated to influence the frequency and intensity of climateextremes invulnerableregions.Thisstudyexaminestheeffectsofglobalwarming levels(GWLs)of1.5°Cand2°ConfuturechangesofmoisturefluxestoconstrainmodeledchangeinCentralAfrica(CA)rainfall, using an ensemble of transient projections from the regional climate model RCA4 in theframeworkofthecoordinatedregionalclimatedownscalingexperimentoverAfrica(CORDEX-Africa).RCA4 is nested within eight General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled ModelIntercomparisonProjectPhase5 (CMIP5)undertheRepresentativeConcentrationPathways (RCPs)4.5and8.5.ResultsindicatethatregionalscaleresponsestoanthropogenicforcingsvaryacrossGWLsand seasons. Seasonal changes of precipitation and moisture divergence are correlated; morepronouncedinMarch-May,relativetoSeptember-November;andlargerfor2°CGWLrelativeto1.5°CGWL.WhilstmostforcingsseemstoshowaprojecteddecreaseprecipitationovermajorareasinMAM,thereisratheratendencytolocaliseddecreasesorincreasesinSON.Thereisasubstantialincreaseofzonal moisture divergence fluxes in upper atmospheric layers (>700) under RCP8.5 compared toRCP4.5 leading to large changes in the moisture transport. Moreover, it’s found that additionalwarmingof0.5°CwillchangeCentralAfricahydrologicalcyclewithmodificationofwateravailability,which means serious problems to water resource management in agriculture, hydro-powergeneration,breeding,sanitaryandotherecosystems.

Keywords: Central Africa, RCA4, CMIP5, global warming levels, moisture flux convergence


A3-P-03

Dynamicalandstatisticaldownscaling:intercomparisoninthreeextremetemperatureeventsinsouthernSouthAmerica

RocioBalmacedaHuarte,DepartmentofAtmosphericandOceanSciences,UniversityofBuenosAires,CONICET,Argentina

RocioBalmacedaHuarte,DepartmentofAtmosphericandOceanSciences,UniversityofBuenosAires,CONICET,Argentina;LluísFitaBorrell,PabloZaninelli,CentrodeInvestigacionesdelMarylaAtmósfera(CIMA/UBA-CONICET)&IFAECI(UMI3351-IFAECI/CNRS-IRD-CONICET-UBA),BuenosAires

&FacultyofAstronomicalandGeophysicalSciences(UNLP),LaPlata,Argentina;MariaLauraBettolli,DepartmentofAtmosphericandOceanSciences,UniversityofBuenosAires,

CONICET,Argentina

Global Climate Models are the main tools used to generate weather and climate predictions atdifferent time scales. However, it is well recognized that these models are unable to provideinformation at the spatial scale required by many stakeholders. Hence, dynamical and statisticaldownscaling(RCMandESD)approachesarenecessaryforadaptingtheglobalmodelpredictionstosmaller spatial scales, providing suitable products for a range of applications. Despite of the largenumberofworksthatappliedthesetechniques, inSouthAmericathecomparisonofstrengthsandweaknessesofESDandRCMhasnotcomprehensivelybeenperformedyet,especiallyinthesimulationofextremeevents.

Inthiscontext,theaimofthisworkistocompareESDandRCMinrepresentingextremetemperatureeventsincentral-easternArgentina.Tothisend,threehotsummersinwhichrecordheatwaveeventsoccurredwereselected:2002-2003,2013-2014and2015-2016.

Forthecomparisonofthetwodownscalingmethodologies,theWRFRCMwasusedwithtwodifferentconfigurations, in which the soil physics were altered. Jointly three ESD models based on linearregressionandanalogueswereconsidered.AllmodelsweredrivenbyERAInterim.Also,totraintheESDmodelsandtoevaluatethedownscalingapproaches,dailystationdatafromArgentinawasused.Two different bioclimatic indices based on the wet bulb temperature were also simulated andcompared.

Theresultsshowthatbothapproachesareabletoreproducethepersistenceandspatialdistributionsoftheextremeeventsaswellastheseasonalcharacteristicsofeachhotsummer.Thespreadinthesimulationoftheintensitiesoftheheatwavesvariesdependingontheparticularevent,theregionandthesimulationconsidered.Theyalsoshowedagoodperformanceinsimulatingthebioclimaticindices highlighting the importance of the generation of detailed climate information for impactassessment.

Keywords: Dynamical and Statistical Downscaling, Heat waves, Center-eastern of Argentina


A3-P-04

Inter-comparinggridresolutionimpactsinWRFandRegCM4simulationsfor2004-yearoverSouthAmerica

RosmeridaRocha,UniversidadedeSãoPaulo,Brazil

RosmeridaRocha,NataliaPillarSilva,EduardoMarcosdeJesus,RicardoCamargo,UniversidadedeSãoPaulo,Brazil;JoséAntônioLima,ClarisseKaufmann,MarceloAndrioni,

CENPES/PETROBRAS,Brazil

Tounderstandtheimpactoffineresolutionintheregionalclimate(RCM)simulations,theclimatologyoftwoRCMsoverSouthAmerica(SA)CORDEXdomainisinvestigated.Thespecialinterestisdrawninto the evaluation of simulated rainfall and near-surface wind over southeastern South America(SESA)andsoutheasternofBrazil(SDE),whicharetwoofthemaincyclogeneticareasofSA.Therefore,for the2004-year, theRegionalClimateModel (RegCM, version4) and theWeatherResearchandForecastingmodel(WRF,version3.9)wereintegratedusingtwodifferenthorizontalgridspacingsandstrategies.WRFsimulationsaretwo-waynestedwithgridspacingsof27and9kmandusedspectralnudgingtosynopticwaves(2000km).RegCM4used25and12.5kmofgridspacingswithouttwo-waynestingandforcedonlyintheboundaries.BothsimulationswerenestedintheCFSRreanalysisandtheWRFrunusedSSTupdatesfromtheNOAAOISST.ThesimulatedrainfalliscomparedwithdifferentTRMM rainfall and 10-m height winds are compared with ERA5 reanalysis. For annual mean, thesimulatedspatialpatternofrainfallissimilartotheobservedone,butthereisanunderestimationofrainfalloverthetropicalsectorofthedomain.FortheSESAregion,bothRegCM4andWRFsimulatetheannualcycleofrainfallsimilarlytotheobservation.InSDEarea,WRFtendstooverestimatetherainfallwhiletheoppositeoccurswithRegCM4.Inbothregions,itisnotedasmallimpactofthegridresolutioninboththephaseandintensityofthesimulatedrainfall.FortheSDEandSESAareas,thesimulated 10-mheightwind ismore intense than theobservedone,withWRFpresenting smalleroverestimationofwindthanRegCM4.Intheannualcycleofwind,itisnotedalsoasmallimpactofgridresolution.Ananalysisofgridresolutionimpactindailyrainfallandwindisalsopresented.

Keywords: model grid resolution, South America, WRF and RegCM4


A3-P-05

Analysisofobservations-simulations-projectionsandscenariosproductioninGuinea

AhmadouAliouDiallo,NationalDirectionofMeteorology,Guinea

AhmadouAliouDiallo,NationalDirectionofMeteorology,Guinea;FoamouhoueAndréKamga,AfricanCenterforMeteorologicalApplicationsforDevelopment(ACMAD),Niger

Forecastingatreducedscales(downscaling)isstillinsufficientbecauseofinsufficientobservationsandduration; early warning systems are unreliable due to lack of technical means, information andconsistentdata.Even someclimatemodelsaredifficult tovalidateon theAfricancontinent (IPCC,2007).ModelsdonotshowaconsistentenoughtrendfortropicalAfrica(CookandVizy2006,Biasuttiet al., 2008),whichmakesmedium and long-term planning difficult. However, tropical Africa, likeGuinea, is one of the areas where populations, resources and natural ecosystems are the mostvulnerabletoclimatichazards(Brassardetal.,2007,Tsalefacetal.,2007;2009,Sultan2011).

Toevaluateandvalidatetheperformanceofthemulti-modelapproachusedinthestudyarea,severalclimatesimulationdatawereanalyzed.TheresultswerecomparedwithobservationsandanalyzesforthemainelementscontrollingclimateintropicalAfrica(KamgaandBuscarlet,2006).

ItisinfactadataprocessingofIPCCclimateprojectionsandcompletethehistoricalanalyzesfortheplausiblescenariosfortheperiod2020-2050onourstudyarea.

InthisworkweusedCMIP5&CORDEXAFsimulationdatathatwethenevaluateusingdatafromourobservationstationstobeabletoscenarios(projectionRCP)

Keywords: Cordex, RCP


A3-P-06

PresentclimateandclimatetrendsusingtheregionalmodelRegCM4overregionsofcomplextopographyoftheAndes.

DeckerGuzmánZabalaga,UniversityofSãoPaulo,Brazil

DeckerGuzmánZabalaga,RosmeriPorfiriodaRocha,UniversityofSãoPaulo,Brazil

ThisstudyusedthreesimulationsofRegCM4forcedbythreedifferentglobalmodels(GFDL,HadGEM2andMPI)ofCMIP5(CoupledModelIntercomparisonProjectPhase5)toevaluatethepresentclimate(1981-2005) and future scenario RCP8.5 (2006-2096) over regions of complex topography like theAndes. The evaluation of the performance of the model in over Andes (CA) was made throughcomparisons with data from meteorological stations and interpolated data (CHIRPS) in four sub-regions, obtained by cluster analysis. In the present climate, the three RegCM4 simulationsoverestimatetheprecipitationinregionslocatedatheightsbetween3000and4200m.Ingeneral,intheAndesmountains, the amplitudes of annual precipitation cycles are higher in RegCM4 than inobservations.ItindicatesthatRegCM4simulateshighavailabilityofwatervaporintheatmosphere,resultinginhigherprecipitationrates,especiallywhenthewetperiodoccurs(December,JanuaryandFebruary).Intermsofcirculation,inthepresentclimatethe850hPawindsthroughtheLowLevelJet(JBN) indicate a strongmass convergence on theAndes favoring intense upwardmovements thatwouldbecontributingtotheincreaseofprecipitationinthemodelsandadisplacementtowardsthewestcomparedtothereanalysis(ERA-Interim).Thesefactorscontributetoexplaintheoverestimationof rainfall in the region in the simulations. The simulations represent the interannual variabilityoftemperature and precipitation, but in general, an intensification of this signal is observed incomparisonwiththeobservations.Futurelatitudinalprojectionswereanalyzedovera30-yearperiod(2030-2060)andshowapredominanceofwarmingtrendatalllatitudesandrainfallreductioninthefuture,exceptforthesimulationofRegCM4forcedbyMPI.Forairtemperature,theprobabilitydensityfunctionsof(PDF)showashifttotherightinthefutureclimate(2030-2060),withconsequentincreaseofextremeeventswhichcanaffectthehydrologicalcycleintheCA.

Keywords: Andean Region, statistical analysis , climate trends, RegCM4


A3-P-07

TheEarthSystemGridFederationDataNodeinIndiaforCORDEXSouthAsiaandCMIP6DataDissemination

SandipIngle,IndianInstituteofTropicalMeteorology,Pune,India

The climate research collaboration for understanding and predicting climate change and extremeweather events need advanced tools to archive, manage, access, analyze, visualize, and processenormousanddistributedclimatechangeprojectiondatasets.TheEarthGridFederation(ESGF)meetsthischallengebyaninternationalcollaborationforthesoftwaredesignedandmaintainedbyresearchinstitutions around the globe that powers most global climate change research. The ESGF was apartnershipofclimatemodelingcenterscreatedtoprovidesecure,web-based,distributedaccesstotheWorld Climate Research Programme (WCRP) CoupledModel Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5)climatemodeldatathatcontributedtotheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)fifthassessmentreport(AR5).

The Centre for Climate Change Research (CCCR) established at the Indian Institute of TropicalMeteorology(IITM)undertheMinistryofEarthSciences,GovernmentofIndiahasjoinedtheESGFasadatanodepeeredwith theSwedishMeteorologicalandHydrological Institute (SMHI)ESGF indexnode for sharing the climatemodel outputs generated at CCCR-IITM from the climate simulationexperiments conducted for contributing to the WCRP initiative COordinated Regional climateDownscaling Experiment (CORDEX) over South Asia. This ESGF data node is also being utilized fordisseminatingtheIITMEarthSystemModel(ESM)outputsgeneratedatCCCR-IITMforcontributingtothesixthphaseofCMIP(CMIP6),whichwillserveasabasisfortheforthcomingIPCCsixthassessmentreport (AR6). This presentationwill provide an overview of the different components in the ESGFinfrastructureandthesoftwaretoolsimplementedthatmaketheclimatedataeasilyaccessibletotheusersfordetailedanalysisandapplicationstudiesovertheIndianregion.

Keywords: CORDEX South Asia, ESGF, Data Dissemination


A3-P-08

High-resolutiontemperatureprojectionsfromPRECISindifferentregionsacrossChina

ZhangLei,NationalMeteorologicalCenter,China

ZhangLei,NationalMeteorologicalCenter,China;YinlongXu,InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture,China

Average and extreme temperatures, i.e.,mean temperature (Tm),maximum temperature (Tmax),minimumtemperature(Tmin),diurnaltemperaturerange(DTR),frostdays(FD)andheatwavedays(HD), are derived fromProvidingRegional Climates to Impact Studies (PRECIS) at a fine resolution(25km)acrossChina.ItisobviousthatthesetemperaturesexhibitwellperformanceinPRECISthanitsoriginatedGCM(i.e.,HadGEM2-ES),withaexceptionofHD.However,somebiases(e.g.abiasexceed±3oCforTm/Tmax/Tmin/DTRand±5dforFD/HD)arestilldeclaredinsomeregions,westernregionsinespecial.Itisthusnecessarytocorrectbiasfrorawoutputs.Mappingquantileisusedtocorrectthebias,takingobservationasreference.Afterthat,reproducedtemperaturesareperformedmuchwellthanrawsimulation.Mostregionsisreportedinabiaswithin±0.2oCforTm/Tmax/Tmin/DTRand±2dforFD/HD.Giventheacceptanceofthebias-correctedoutputs,potentialtemperatureschangesareexplored.ItisclearthatnorthernandwesternregionsareexpectedtoexperiencehigherwarmingtrendofTm/Tmax/Tmin.ThoughnationalDTRisdetectedinnoobvioustrend,itisinterestingtonotethatDTRrisesincentral-southernregions,indicatingafasterincrementinTmaxthanTmin.NorthernandwesternregionsexpressadecreasingvalueofFD,whichdecrementduring2071~2100relativeto1961~1990underRCP8.5istwiceasmuchasthatduring2071~2100underRCP4.5.Central-southernregionsendureanincreasingHD,withanincrementduring2071~2100underRCP8.5over2timesthanthatunderRCP4.5.

Keywords: temperature projections, Providing Regional Climates to Impact Studies (PRECIS)


A3-P-09

ProjectionoffuturewatercycleinEastChinawithanensembleofclimatedownscalingsimulations

LaurentLi,LaboratoiredeMeteorologieDynamique,IPSL,France

Theensembleapproachisanessentialmethodologytogainconfidenceforfutureclimateprojectionatbothglobalandregionallevels.Internationalinitiatives,suchasCMIPandCORDEX,clearlyshowedaddedvalueofthemulti-modelensembleapproach.Nevertheless,MMEstillremainsveryheavytoactually conduct. Especially for the commonly-useddownscalingapproach thatemploys a regionalclimate model forced by high-frequency boundary conditions (usually every 6 hours) from globalclimatemodel, it is indeedveryraretoseeensemblesimulationsinasameregionalclimatemodelforcedbydifferentglobalmodels.Inthiswork,analternativemethodologyisproposedandconsistsofaddingaglobalatmosphericmodelbetweenthecoupledclimatesystemmodelandtheregionalclimatemodel.Withinthismethodology,onlymonthly-meanglobalsea-surfacetemperatureandsea-iceextensionarenecessaryandsufficienttopropagateclimatesignalfromtheglobalmodeltotheregional one. This hypothesis was approved to be a very reasonable one for climate downscalingpurposes,asreportedinKrinneretal.(2014,JofClimate)andHernandez-Diazetal.(2017,ClimateDynamics)fortheAntarcticandAfricarespectively.AsimilarregionaldownscalingstudyinEastChinais reportedherewithLMDZ-regional, the regionalversionof theclimatemodel LMDZ.Thecoarse-resolutionglobalversionofLMDZ,notedasLMDZ-globalplaystheroleofintermediatemodeltopassglobalclimateinformationtoregionalscale.Withinthisframework,climatescenariosfromabouttenCMIP5modelsareusedtoperformclimatedownscalinginEastChina.Allofthemcoverthehistoricalperiodfrom1951to2005andtheRCP8.5scenariofrom2006to2100.Watercycleisthemainfocusofthisstudy.Precipitation,evaporationandrunoffarecarefullyexamined,especially forthemajorriversintheregion,suchastheYangtzeriverandtheYellowriver.

Keywords: climate downscaling, water cycle


A3-P-10

Multi-scaleSimulationofEastAsianClimate

YuanLiang,SchoolofAtmosphericSciences,NanjingUniversity,Nanjing,China

YuanLiang,MinghuaiWang,JianpingTang,SchoolofAtmosphericSciences,NanjingUniversity,Nanjing,China;KoichiSakaguchi,L.RubyLeung,AtmosphericSciencesandGlobalChangeDivision,

PacificNorthwestNationalLaboratory,Richland,WA,USA

Traditionalglobalclimatemodels(GCMs)withcoarseresolutionusuallyhavedeficiencyinsimulatingrealisticregionalweatherbecauseofthedifficultiestoresolvecomplexorographyatregionalscales.Experimentalglobalhigh-resolutionmodelsshowsomebenefitsbutalsoraisemuchcomputationalburden,whilevariableresolution(VR)modelswithunstructuredmeshcanprovidecomparableresultsandrequirelesscomputationalresources.Inrecentyears,aVRdynamicalcoreModelforPredictionAcrossScales(MPAS)hasbeenincorporatedintotheCommunityAtmosphereModelVersion5(CAM5)andshowspromisingresults.HeretheMPASdynamicalcoreandCAM5physicspackageareusedtoevaluatetheeffectofregionalrefinementoverEastAsiaontheclimatemeanstate,withtheresolutionfrom 30 km to 120 km. The VR simulation is evaluated against a 20 km regional climate modelsimulation, observations and ERA-Interim reanalysis data for surface temperature, large-scalecirculationandprecipitation.Theanalysisisperformedforthewholeyearandsummer,overthe30-yearperiodfrom1979to2009.

Keywords: MPAS,Variable resolution, East Asia


A3-P-11

Meteorologicaldroughtmagnitudeduration,intensityandfrequencyinthefutureclimateofEasternTigray,NorthernEthiopia

DamascoRubangakene,MekelleUniversity,Ethiopia

DamascoRubangakene,AtkiltGirma,AmanuelZenebe,GoitomKalem,GebreyohanesZenebe,MekelleUniversity,Ethiopia

Precipitationdeficitanditsdaily,seasonalandannualvacillationsareintrinsicfeaturesofEthiopian’sclimate.ThisstudyaimedatanalyzingmeteorologicaldroughtanditscharacteristicsinfutureclimateofeasternTigray,northernEthiopia,withtheprincipalgoalsofenhancinganearlywarningandbetterdroughtdisasterresponsemechanisms.Topredicttheclimateofthestudyarea,thedeltascenariosweregeneratedfromCMIP5GCMsandBCSDusingtheR-softwaretocreate120delta-adjusteddatafiles (3 timesscales [NT=near term(2010-2039)MT=midterm(2040-2069)andET=endterm(2070-2099)]*2RCPs[4.5and8.5]*20GCMs).Themeteorologicaldroughtseventsunderfutureclimateofthestudyareawereanalyzedusinga4-and12-monthsSPIandSPEI.Thetwo-parametergamma(α,β)probabilityandlog-logisticdistributions(α,βandγ)wereusedtocomputeSPIandSPEIrespectively.Inthefuture,thedurationandmagnitudeofshort-termdroughtwillincreaseinFatsibutthemeanintensitywill drop slightly below thebaseline.Wukro andAtsbiwill probably experience a slightlylowermeanintensityofdroughtrelativetothebaselinebutanincreaseindurationandmagnitudewas noticed. Moderate drought frequency will increase in all time segments. Regardless of thepredictedincreaseinmeanannualrainfall,someyearswillstillexperiencedeficitthatwilltantamountin to drought events coupledwith higher evapotranspiration.Moreover, the predicted increase inprecipitation under the future climate will have uneven temporal characteristics/variability. Wethereforerecommendedbettersoilandwaterconservationpracticestominimizeevapotranspiration.

Keywords: Global Circulation Model, Climate Change, Drought


A3-P-12

ModelingthecurrentatmosphericparameterstrendsforSinaiPeninsulausingRegCM4.7

MohamedShaltout,AlexandriaUniversity,Egypt

MohamedShaltout,AlexandriaUniversity,Egypt;MohamedGad,NationalInstituteofOceanographyandFisheries,SuezandAqabaGulfsBranch,Suez,Egypt

Surfaceairtemperature,sealevelpressure,surfacewind,surfaceheatfluxes,andtotalprecipitationareconsideredasthemostimportantcomponentstodescribetheSinairecentclimate.Thecurrentresearchpresentsathree-stepdownscalingoftheseatmosphericparametersoverSinaifrom1991—2016usingf-nesttechniquewithinRegCM4.07model.Theresultsindicatethatthesimulatedsurfaceair temperature, sea level pressure, and surfacewind closely follow the observations. In addition,simulated surface heat fluxes and total precipitation have a significant correlation (over 0.8) withavailablereanalyzedata.Ingeneral,thethirdstepdownscalingwith10kmgridresolutionshowsmorerelevantresultsincomparabletothefirstdownscalingstepwith30kmgridresolution.Generally,thedata for Sinai, 1991–2016, display a significant positive trend for surface air temperature (0.45oCdecade–1)togetherwithsignificantnegativetrendsfortotalprecipitation(-0.028mmday–1decade–1),andsealevelpressure(-0.32mbardecade–1).

Keywords: Regional modeling, Air temperature, Total precipitation, fnest


A3-P-13

HowwelldoRCMsandESDsreproducetheoccurrenceofextremeprecipitationeventsoverSoutheasternSouthAmerica?

Acasestudyapproach

SilvinaSolman,CIMA(CONICET-UBA)/UniversityofBuenosAires,Argentina

SilvinaSolman,MariaLauraBettolli,MoiraDoyle,CIMA(CONICET-UBA)/UniversityofBuenosAires,Argentina;JosefinaBlazquez,CIMA(CONICET-UBA)/UniversityofLaPlata,Argentina;MartinFeijoo,CIMA(CONICET-UBA),Argentina;MatiasOlmo,UniversityofBuenosAires,Argentina;GonzaloMartin-Diaz,NationalMeteorologicalWeatherServiceofArgentia,Argentina;Rocio

Balmaceda,MariaMercedesPoggi,UniversityofBuenosAires,Argentina

IndividualextremeprecipitationeventsoverSoutheasternSouthAmerica(SESA)duringthespringandsummertimeareresponsibleofmorethan40%ofthetotalaccumulatedseasonalprecipitation.Theseextremeeventsareassociatedwiththeoccurrenceoforganizedconvectionintheregion.Giventhemesoscale features involved in their development, modelling their main features and lifecycles ischallenging.Inthisworkwegatherdifferentmodellingstrategies,includingseveralEmpiricalStatisticalDownscaling(ESD)models,severalCORDEXRegionalClimateModels(RCMs)fortheSouthAmericandomain at various horizontal resolutions and several convective permitting simulations performedwiththeWRFmodelforselectedcasestudiestoassessthecapabilityofdifferentmethodologiesincapturingthespatialdistributionofrainfallduringtheoccurrenceofanextremeevent.Theevaluationofdifferentmethodologiesalsoallowsidentifyingtheircapabilityincapturing(ornot)theassociatedphysicalforcingstriggeringextremeevents.Tenindividualeventswereselectedbasedondatafromthe TRMM dataset and the CPC-Unified gridded dataset for the period 1979-2015 satisfying thefollowingcriteria:dailyprecipitationexceedingthe95thpercentileandwithacoverageofmorethan10%ofgridpointswithinSESA.Duetothelargeobservationaluncertainty,wealsoincludedseveralobservational datasets to characterize themain features of the individual cases evaluated, whichincludestationdata,griddedproducts(CPC-Unifieddata)andseveralprecipitationestimatesbasedonsatellitedata(CHIRPS;MSWEP;TRMM;PERSIANN;CMOPRH).Foreach individualevent,evaluationRCMsimulationsfromtheCORDEXdatabaseat50kmand25kmresolutions;72-hourssimulationsperformedwiththeWRFmodeldrivenbyERA-Interimreanalysisatroughly20km,12kmand4km,and several ESD models based on different techniques and different predictor variables werecompared.

Keywords: downscaling techniques, extreme precipitation events, Southeastern South America


A3-P-14

Orographicalmodulationofregionalfinescaleprecipitationchangesignals-Europeanexamples

CsabaZsoltTorma,HungarianAcademyofSciences,Hungary

CsabaZsoltTorma,HungarianAcademyofSciences,Hungary;FilippoGiorgi,ICTP,Italy

Highnumberofregionalclimatemodel(RCM)experimentshavebeenaccomplishedoverdifferentsubregionsoftheglobeintheframeworkoftheinternationalinitiativecalledtheCOordinatedRegionalDownscaling Experiment (CORDEX). Being the European branches of the CORDEX program: EURO-CORDEXandMed-CORDEXprovideRCMsimulations targetingEurope (forMed-CORDEX:being theMediterranean region in focus) at grid resolutionsof0.44° (medium resolution)andof0.11° (highresolution).DetailedinvestigationofensemblesofdrivingGCMandnestedRCMsimulationsforthelate21stcenturywithrespecttolate20thcenturyfromtheCMIP5,EURO-CORDEX,andMed-CORDEXexperimentsarepresentedathigh resolution,witha special focuson theAlpsand theCarpathianregion.Presentworkgivesanoverviewonhowthefine-scaleRCMdownscalingcanmodulatetheGCMproducedprecipitationchangesignal infutureclimateprojectionsovertheregionsof interest.Ourfindingspointtothefactthatthetopographicallyinducedfinescaleprecipitationsignalismostlyofdynamicalnature inwinter,while ismorethermodynamic innatureduringsummer,thusthehigh-resolution representationof topography in climatemodels is crucial for theprovisionof fine scaleprecipitationprojectionsinmountainousregions.

Keywords: regional climate modeling, precipitation change


A3-P-15

FutureprojectionofheatwavesoverChinaunderglobalwarmingwithintheCORDEX-EA-IIproject

PinyaWang,NanjingUniversty,China

PinyaWang,JianpingTang,NanjingUniversity,China

Drivenbyfourglobalclimatemodels(GCMs)fromtheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProjectPhase5 (CMIP5) (i.e., CNRM-CM5, EC-EARTH, GFDL-ESM2M andMPI-ESM-LR) under the RepresentativeConcentration Path-way 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, projections for future changes in heatwaves overChinaareperformedbyWeatherResearchForecasting(WRF)modelsimulationsforfuture(FTR,2031–2055)andpresent(1981–2005)periods.Sixheatwaveindicesareappliedtocharacterizeheatwavesbasedontheirfrequency,duration,magnitude,intensity,accumulatedoccurrencedaysandseverity.AnalysesshowthatnotableincreasesinheatwaveindicescoverallofChina.Moreareaswillenduremore frequent, longer lasting andmore severe heatwaves in the comingdecades. The increasingtendenciesofheatwaveindicesintheFTRperiodaremoresignicantthanthoseatpresent,indicatingthat heat waves will intensify more rapidly in the future. The impacts of climate changes on theaccumulatedpropertiesofheatwavesaremoresubstantialthanthoseontheindividualaspectsofheatwaves.ItisalsoprojectedthatstrongerheatwaveswithprolongeddurationsandmoreseveremagnitudeswilloccurmoreoftenintheFTRperiod,whereasrelativelyweakerheatwaveswouldoccurlessoften.Hence,theoccurrenceofextremeheatwavesshowsamoreremarkableincreasethantheoccurrence of moderate heat waves. The changes in heat waves can be largely explained by thechangesinthedominatinghigh-pressuresystems.

Keywords: Heat Waves, WRF,CORDEX-EA-II, Future projection


A3-P-16

ACaseStudyfortheImpactofNudgingParametersinWRFoverCORDEXEastAsiaPhaseIIDomain

LinyunWang,TheSchoolofAtmosphericSciences,NanjingUniversity,China

LinyunYang,ShuyuWang,JianpingTang,theSchoolofAtmosphericSciences,NanjingUniversity,China

Inthestudy,weinvestigatethesensitivityoftheWeatherResearchandForecastmodel(WRF)tothenudgingparametersinsimulatingJJAprecipitationbyapplyingsixteenexperimentsoverCORDEX-EA-IIdomain.Theeffectsofvariousnudgingparametersinspectralnudging(SN)andgridnudging(AN)experiments were explored, including wavenumbers, relaxation time, nudging levels and nudgingvariablesforSNandrelaxationtimeandnudgingvariablesforAN.

ResultsshowedthatboththetwointeriornudgingmethodologiescanimprovetheWRFmodel’sabilitytoreproducetheJJAprecipitationandlarge-scalefields.

1) Spectralnudgingshowsanadvantageovergridnudginginsimulatingheavyrainfallandlow-levelcirculation.

2) Nudging both kinematic and thermodynamic variables can simulate the JJA precipitationbetterforbothSNandANsimulations.

3) TheeffectofspectralnudgingparametersisdependentontheregionsofinterestinsimulatingJJAprecipitation.

4) InSNsimulations,theoptionsofwavenumberdisplaylargereffectsonJJAprecipitationwhennudging solely the kinematic variables compared to both kinematic and thermodynamicvariablesoverwetsub-regions.

5) Theapplicationofsmallwavenumbercandecreasetheimprovementfrombothkinematicandthermodynamic variables in simulating large-scale fields and sub-seasonal variations ofprecipitation.

6) Nudgingcoefficienthasaneffectontheperformanceobviouslyingridnudging.

Generally, the experiment adopting spectral both kinematic and thermodynamic variables, 1h relaxation time and four or eight wavenumbers captures the characteristics of summer precipitation more reasonably.

Keywords: precipitation, interior nudging


A3-P-17

OptimizationofCMIP5resultsbasedonmachinelearningalgorithm

HaoYu,BeijingNormalUniversity,China

HaoYu,XiutingPiao,XuefengCui,BeijingNormalUniversity,China

Machine learningalgorithmshavebeenwidelyused invarioussubjectareas includinggeosciences.However,therearestillquitefewstudiesonweatherforecastingandclimateprediction.Atthesametime,mostGCMsunderperforminsomeregionsthantheothers,particularlyinareaswithcomplexunderlyingsurfacesuchastheTibetPlateau.Thispaperusesthe‘onlinelearning’algorithmtoevaluateclimatemodelperformance(2metertemperatureandprecipitation)intheTibetanPlateaubasedonoutput fromCMIP5.With thehelpof thealgorithm,wecouldexplore theabilityofeachmodelatdifferenttimesanddifferentgridpoints,onwhichoptimalweightallocationschemewillbedevelopedtoreducetheerrorbetweenthemulti-modelensembleandtheobservationvalueassmallaspossible.Hopefully the algorithm will be applied for future projections in order to optimize the modelensembles.

Keywords: machine learning, GCMs, Tibetan Plateau


A3-P-18

AssessmentoftheboundarylayerheightsimulationbyCAM-MPASoverEastAsia

ManYue,SchoolofAtmosphericSciences,NanjingUniversity,China

ManYue,SchoolofAtmosphericSciences,NanjingUniversity,China;MinghuaiWang,InstituteforClimateandGlobalChangeResearch,SchoolofAtmosphericSciences,NanjingUniversity,Nanjing,China;JianpingGuo,StateKeyLaboratoryofSevereWeather&KeyLaboratoryofAtmosphericChemistryofCMA,ChineseAcademyofMeteorologicalSciences,Beijing,China-;L.RubyLeung,

KoichiSakaguchi,PacificNorthwestNationalLaboratory,USA

Planetary boundary layer (PBL) plays an important role in climate and air quality simulations.Conventional global climate models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) still have somelimitations in simulating multi-scale interactions between PBL and large-scale processes. LargeuncertaintiesremaininPBLheight(PBLH)simulationsamongdifferentmodels.ThedevelopmentofvariableresolutionGCMs(VR-GCMs)modelsprovideagreatopportunitytocombinetheadvantagesof GCMs and RCMs to perform global simulation in representing the global processes with highresolution inregionsof interest. Inthisstudy,radiosondedataandERA-InterimreanalysisdataareappliedtoevaluatePBLHsimulationsoverChinainthevariableresolutionCAM-MPAScomparedwithuniform resolution global models. The sensitivity of PBLH simulations to different modelparameterizations are further explored. Our results show that, lower PBLH is simulated with gridrefinementoverEastAsia,especiallyinwinter.OurresultsalsoshowthatPBLschemeshavesignificantimpactonsimulatingPBLH.ItisfurtherrevealedthattheCAM-MPASmodelisunabletoreproducethe observed seasonal cycle of PBLH even with grid refinement. Reasons for model deficiency insimulatingPBLHarefurtherexplored.

Keywords: Planetary boundary layer heights, CAM-MPAS


A3-P-19

RegionalclimatemodellingoftheCentralAsia:ConsistenciesanduncertaintiesofthedrivingGCM’sbiascorrection

CiZhang,TsinghuaUniversity,China

CiZhang,YaoYao,YongLuo,TsinghuaUniversity,China

Global climatemodels (GCMs), typically on horizontal scales of around 100 km, decently simulateEarth’s climate system.Nevertheless, the space resolutions ofGCMs are in general too coarse forregional climate studies. Regional climatemodels (RCMs) are therefore introduced to dynamicallydownscaletheGCMoutput,producingmoredetailsofclimatevariablesonfinerscales.AGCMwithbiases thatarenegligibleonplanetary scales,however, canpossibly lead to severe inconsistencieswhenemployedasboundaryconditionsfortheRCM.WhilediverseapproachestoperformingbiascorrectionfortheGCMdataareproposed,theeffectofthesecorrectionsontheperformanceofRCMstill remains unclear. As a result, we aim for a thorough discussion on the consistencies anduncertaintiesofaGCMbiascorrectionwithageographicalfocusontheCentralAsia.TheGCMdatausedinthisstudyistheCCSM3modeldatabias-correctedbytheERA-Interimreanalysisdata,followingBruyèreetal.(2014)’smethodbasedonReynoldsdecompositions.TheRCMbeingselectedhereistheWRFmodel,withtheCORDEXregionofCentralAsiasetasthecoarserparentdomain,andaregionfully covering all five countries in the Central Asia, i.e. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, defined as the finer nest one. Through a comprehensive comparisonbetweenthenumerical simulationsand theobservations in termsof severalclimatevariables,e.g.temperatureandprecipitation,wepresentthestrengthsandweaknessesoftheregionalmodellingoftheCentralAsiadrivenby thebias-correctedGCMdata. The conclusionofour researchmayofferpracticalguidancetoclimatescientistsinrobustlydeterminingGCMbiascorrectionprotocolsfortheconductionofdynamicaldownscalings.

Keywords: Regional climate modelling, GCM bias correction, Central Asia


A3-P-20

Statisticalsignificancetestsforthedifferenceofperformancebetweentwoclimatemodels

MengzhuoZhang,SchoolofAtmosphericSciences,NanjingUniversity,Nanjing,China

MengzhuoZhang,ZhongfengXu,YinHan,RCE-TEA,InstituteofAtmosphericPhysics,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Beijing,China,China;WeidongGuo,SchoolofAtmosphericSciences,NanjingUniversity,Nanjing,China;JointInternationalResearchLaboratoryofAtmosphericandEarthSystem

Sciences,Nanjing,China,

Withtheincreasingemergenceofclimatemodels,itbecomesmoreandmoreimportanttoevaluateand compare the performance of different climate models objectively, quantitatively andcomprehensively is more and more important. Although a number of methods are proposed toevaluatedifferentaspectsofmodelperformanceforbothscalarandvectorfields,thesemethodsdonotconsiderthedifferenceofperformancebetweentwomodels.Thus,significancetestisnecessarywhenyouwanttoknowwhetherthedifferenceofmodelperformancebetweendifferentmodels,orthedifferencebeforeandaftertheimprovementofthemodelissignificance,significancetestforthedifferenceofperformanceisnecessary.Totheend,weproposesstatisticalsignificancetestforthedifferenceofperformancebetweentwoclimatemodels.Statisticalsignificancetestincludestheteston correlation coefficient, standard deviation, root-mean-square difference and absolute meandifference.Statisticalsignificancetestcanquantifytowhatextentoneclimatemodeldiffersfromtheothermodelindifferentaspects.Thesignificancetestisbasedonbootstrapandhasnorestrictiononthedistributionoftesteddata.Inaddition,thesignificancetestcanbeusedforbothscalarfieldsandvector fields. The significance test would provide new perspective to the evaluation of modelperformance,andusefulinformationformodeldevelopers.

Keywords: model performance, significance test


A3-P-21

ProjectedmeanandextremetemperatureandprecipitationoverCentralAsiaresultsfromdynamicaldownscalingandCCSM4

XianZhu,SchoolofAtmosphericSciences,SunYat-SenUniversity,China

XianZhu,ZhenmingJi,WenjieDong,SchoolofAtmosphericSciences,SunYat-SenUniversity,China

Limited by availability of high resolution and quality climate data，the climate change and itsecosystemresponsesandfeedbackoverCentralAsiahasnotbeenthoroughcomprehension.Inthisstudy,theoptimizedWRFisusedtodownscaletheERA-InterimreanalysisdataandCCSM4outputs,producinganewregionaldatasetof30×30kmspatialresolutioncovering1986–2100.TheresultsshowthatNoah-MPParameterizationismoresuitableforWRFtoconductthedynamicdownscalingoverCAthatNoah,andthereissignificantimprovementforthemeanandextremeclimatesimulationin dynamic downscaling compared to CCSM4model. The projections by dynamic downscaling andCCSM4model are very similar to each other, especially for temperature and temperature relatedextremes. Related to 1986-2005, a significant rise trend shown by the annual and seasonaltemperature during 1971-2100with about 2℃ and 5℃ increasing under RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenariorespectively. The maximum value of daily maximum temperature, the minimum value of dailyminimumtemperatureandannualtotalnumberofdayswithminimumtemperaturegreaterthan25◦Cwillalsoincreasesignificantly,theannualtotalnumberofdayswithminimumtemperaturelessthan0◦C will decrease significantly with more GHGs emissions and more significant trend. Therefore,reducing greenhouse gas emission should be a priority to mitigate warming over CA. Significantdifferencesanddifferentchangetrendsareshownintheprojectionofprecipitationandprecipitationrelated extremes over CA by dynamic downscaling and CCSM4 model, and the impact of GHGsemissionsisnotobvious.Thesimulationsforglobalandregionalprecipitationbyearthsystemmodelandregionalmodelarenotreliability,resultinginlargedeviationofthedynamicdownscalingresults.In the future, the simulation of global and regional precipitation by the earth systemmodel andregionalmodel needs tobe improved to further improve the reliability of thepredicted results ofclimatechange.

Keywords: Central Asia, Dynamic Downscaling


A3-P-22

ProjectedtemperatureandprecipitationchangesontheTibetanPlateau:ResultsfromdynamicaldownscalingandCCSM4

XianZhu,SchoolofAtmosphericSciences,SunYat-SenUniversity,China

XianZhu,SchoolofAtmosphericSciences,SunYat-SenUniversity,China;ZhigangWei,BeijingNormalUniversity,China;WenjieDong,SchoolofAtmosphericSciences,SunYat-SenUniversity,

China

TheregionalclimateoftheTibetanPlateau(TP)wassimulatedbydynamicallydownscalingreanalysisdata and the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) and comparing trends oftemperatureandprecipitationwithgriddedobservations.Then,futureCCSM4projectionsunderhighandlowemissionscenariosweredownscaledandcomparedwithCCSM4projections.Observationsshowed amarked upward trend in temperature and precipitation since 1979. The spatiotemporaldistributionoftemperatureandprecipitationintheTPwerewellrepresentedbythereanalysisdata.DownscaledsimulationsofERA-InterimandCCSM4wereabletoreproducethespatialdistributionoftemperature in the TP; however, a cold bias was apparent in the central and western regions.Compared to precipitation observations, the downscaled CCSM4 simulation showed markedlydifferent precipitation trends. Future climateprojections indicated that temperatureswill increasemarkedlyintheTP,especiallyunderthehighemissionRCP8.5scenario.UnderRCP4.5,bothCCSM4andthedownscaledsimulationprojecteda1.5°Cincreaseinannualtemperaturesduring2006–2050,whileunderRCP8.5,thedownscaledsimulationprojectedanincreasegreaterthan2.5°C,andCCSM4projectedanincreaseof2.0°C.Emissionscenarioshadnoapparentimpactonprojectionsoffutureprecipitation.Therefore,tomitigatewarmingovertheTP,reducinggreenhousegasemissionshouldbeapriority.

Keywords: Tibetan Plateau, Dynamic downscaling,CCSM4

Parallel Session B: Coupled Models

B1: Atmosphere-land

ORAL PRESENTATIONS

Parallel Session B: Coupled Models B1: Atmosphere-land

Providinghigh-resolutionland-usechangeinformationforensemblesimulationswithinEURO-CORDEXandtheLUCASframework

PeterHoffmann,ClimateServiceCenterGermany(GERICS),Helmholtz-ZentrumGeesthacht,Hamburg,Germany

PeterHoffmann,DianaRechid,VanessaReinhart,EdouardDavin,EidgenössischeTechnischeHochschuleETHZurich,Zurich,Switzerland;EleniKatragkou,DepartmentofMeteorologyand

Climatology,SchoolofGeology,AristotleUniversityofThessaloniki,Greece-;NathaliedeNoblet-Ducoudré,LaboratoiredesSciencesduClimatetdel'Environment,IPSL,France

Land-use and land cover (LULC) are continuously changing due to environmental changes andanthropogenicactivities.Thebio-physicalimpactsofthesechangesontheregionalclimateinEuropearecurrentlyextensivelyinvestigatedwithintheCORDEXFlagshipPilotStudyLUCAS-"LandUseandClimateAcrossScales".Anensembleofdifferentregionalclimatemodels(RCMs)coupledwithlandsurface models (LSMs) was already set up to perform idealized experiments with extreme LULCchanges(LULCC).Basedontheseresults,thesensitivityoftheindividualRCM-LSMcombinationwasanalyzed.

However,toinvestigatetheimpactofrealisticLULCCs,observedhistoricLULCCsandplausiblefutureLULCCscenariosarerequiredasinputfortheRCM-LSMsimulations.Therefore,theland-usechangeinformationfromtheland-useharmonizeddataset(LUH2),whichisalsousedforCMIP6experiments,isappliedtoderiverealisticLULCdistributionsonhighspatialresolutionandannualtimestepfrom1950to2100.WestartwiththecurrentLULCdistribution(~300m)fromtheGLOBCOVER2009dataset(GLC2009).BasedonGLC2009,amapof16plant functional types (PFTs) isderivedusingobservedclimate data (i.e. biotemperature and precipitation) in combinationwith the Holdridge ecosystemclassificationscheme.TheLUH2datasetisappliedtoderiveannualPFTmapsforEuropestartingfromtheLULCdistributionfortheyear2009backto1950,andforwardto2015.From2016on,annualmapsfor future scenarios based on LUH2 are derived for different SSP/RCP combinations. The resultingdatasetswillbeprovidedtotheEURO-CORDEXcommunity,andcanbeappliedaslandsurfaceforcingtotheLUCASRCM-LSMensembletoinvestigatetheimpactofbothpastandfutureLULCCsonhighresolutionclimatechangesimulations.

Themethod,usedfortheconstructionofthedataset,andsimulationresultswiththecoupledRCM-LSMREMO-iMOVEemployingthenewlyderivedLULCCinformationwillbepresented.

Keywords: LUCAS, Land-use change, high-resolution dataset, REMO-iMOVE, EURO-CORDEX


Land-atmospherefeedbacksinahigh-resolutionRCM:sensitivitytotheland-surfaceforcing

JosipaMilovac,MeteorologyGroup,DepartmentofAppliedMathematicsandComputerScience,UniversityofCantabria,Santander,Spain;InstituteofPhysicsandMeteorology,Universityof

Hohenheim,Stuttgart,Germany,Spain

JosipaMilovac,MeteorologyGroup,DepartmentofAppliedMathematicsandComputerScience,UniversityofCantabria,Santander,Spain;InstituteofPhysicsandMeteorology,Universityof

Hohenheim,Stuttgart,Germany,Spain;KlausGoergen,InstituteofBio-andGeosciences(Agrosphere,IBG3),ResearchCentreJuelich,Juelich,Germany,Germany;JesusFernandez,MeteorologyGroup,DepartmentofAppliedMathematicsandComputerScience,UniversityofCantabria,Santander,

Spain,Spain;KirstenWarrach-Sagi,InstituteofPhysicsandMeteorology,UniversityofHohenheim,Stuttgart,Germany,Germany;AlvaroLavin-Gullon,MeteorologyGroup,DepartmentofAppliedMathematicsandComputerScience,UniversityofCantabria,Santander,Spain,Spain;JoachimIngwersen,InstituteofSoilScienceandLandEvaluation,UniversityofHohenheim,Stuttgart,Germany,Germany;VolkerWulfmeyer,InstituteofPhysicsandMeteorology,Universityof

Hohenheim,Stuttgart,Germany,Germany

WithintheframeworkofCORDEX-FPSonconvectivephenomenaoverEuropeandtheMediterranean(FPS-CEM),amulti-modelensembleofregionalclimatemodels(RCMs)onconvectionpermitting(CP)resolutionisbeingproducedforthefirsttime. InthesehighresolutionRCMstheaccuracyofstaticinputinformation,suchaslanduseandsoiltexture,arebecomingmorerelevant,andmayimpactnotonlysurfacefluxes,butalsotherepresentationofboundarylayerevolutionandprecipitation.InthisstudyweinvestigatethesensitivityoftheWeatherResearchandForecasting(WRF)modeltoland-surfacestaticdatabyapplyingtheextendedcase-studyexperimentaldesignofFPS-CEM(Coppolaetal.2018).ApartfromthedefaultWRFstaticinformationbasedonMODISlanduseandFAOsoiltexture,weadaptedhigherresolutionandup-to-datedataforWRFbasedonCORINElanduseandHWSD/BÜKtopsoiltextureinfo,whichhavebeenusedbyallWRFgroupsinvolvedinFPS-CEM.Combiningthese4 data sets for a summer and a winter case, with 2 WRF physical parameterization settings, wegeneratedtwo8-memberensembles.Wefocushereonthemodelrepresentationofland-atmosphere(LA)feedbackprocessesovertheCPAlpinedomain,anditssensitivityto(1)land-surfacestaticforcing,(2) season, and (3)WRF configuration.We investigate correlation between the strength of the LAcouplingandthemodelsensitivitytotheland-surfacestaticdata,andweexploretheimpactofland-surfacechangesonthepotentialforconvectionandprecipitationoccurrence.ToquantifythestrengthofLAcouplingweusecouplingmetricsappropriateformonthlytimescales(e.g.mixingdiagram).

Keywords: Land-atmosphere feedbacks, RCM, WRF, Land use, Soil texture


Land-atmospherecouplingstrengthindependenceoftheland-coverinEuropeanclimatesimulations

LisaLeaJach,UniversityofHohenheim;InstituteforPhysicsandMeteorology,Germany

LisaLeaJach,KirstenWarrach-Sagi,VolkerWulfmeyer,UniversityofHohenheim;InstituteforPhysicsandMeteorology,Germany

Thelandsurfaceisanimportantdriverintheearthsystem.Increasingly,naturalchangesinland-coveraswell as changes in thehuman landusemodify land surfacepropertiesand the feedback to theclimate system. Land-coverdependenciesand strengthof land-atmosphere feedbacksare spatiallyandtemporallyvariant.Theunderlyingbiogeophysicalfeedbackmechanismsarestillnotcompletelyunderstood.ThreeERA-InterimdrivenregionalclimatesimulationswereconductedintheframeworkoftheWCRPFPS‘Land-UseandClimateAcrossScales’(LUCAS)inordertoinvestigatetheimpactoftheoretical maximum afforestation and deforestation, respectively, on feedbacks and potentialimplications for precipitation patterns in Europe. Model outcome of the Weather Forecast andResearch (WRF) model coupled to NOAH-MP was evaluated with respect to the magnitude andvariability in land-atmospherecouplingstrengthatseasonaltimescalesand independenceof landcover. Data from 1986-2015 were used to identify potential feedback hotspots and estimate thecouplingstrengthbasedontheCTP-HIlowframework(FindellandEltahir,2003a,b)andtheTwo-leggedmetric(Dirmeyer,2011).Itwasfoundthatthestrongestcoupling(max.48.5%ofdays/season)occursin the summer months over the Eastern European Plain. Especially in strongly coupled regions,afforestation causes an increase in atmospheric instability (CTP) and humidity deficit (HIlow) of inaverage+20.5J/kgand+1.0°C,respectively,onland,resultinginaweakeningofthecouplingstrengthandlesspronouncedpotentialforlocalpositivefeedbacksbetweensoilmoisture,evapotranspiration,andprecipitation.Conversely,deforestationyieldstheoppositeeffect(-18.5J/kgand-0.75°Conland).Generally,theresultsindicatethatbesidesdirectimpactsonexchangefluxes,especiallyinsummer,changesatthelandsurfacemodifytheatmosphericbackgroundconditionsandhence,thestrengthofland-atmospherefeedbacks.

Keywords: Land-atmosphere coupling strength, Land-cover change, Biogeophysical feedbacks


IntegratedsimulationoftheterrestrialwatercyclewiththefullycoupledTerrestrialSystemsModellingPlatform(TSMP)

KlausGoergen,InstituteofBio-andGeosciences(Agrosphere,IBG-3),ResearchCentreJuelich,Juelich,Germany

KlausGoergen,CarinaFurusho-Percot,InstituteofBio-andGeosciences(Agrosphere,IBG-3),ResearchCentreJuelich,Juelich,Germany;JessicaKeune,LaboratoryofHydrologyandWater

Management,DepartmentofEnvironment,GhentUniversity,Ghent,Belgium;MohamedEltahan,CarlHartick,StefanKollet,InstituteofBio-andGeosciences(Agrosphere,IBG-3),ResearchCentre

Juelich,Juelich,Germany

Waterresourcesandsecurityareintricatelylinkedtocomplexinteractionsandfeedbacksbetweenthegroundwater,landsurfaceandatmosphere,andstronglyaffectedbyclimatechangeaswellashumanwateruse.Tobetterunderstandthedriversandprocessesbehindhydroclimaticextremes(droughts,heatwaves),therelatedtwo-wayfeedbacks(soilmoisture-temperatureorprecipitationcoupling),andtolaythefoundationformoreinformedadaptationandmitigationoptions,weusethemulti-scale,fullycoupled,physicallyconsistentTerrestrialSystemsModellingPlatform(TSMP)(COSMO+CLM+ParFlow,OASIS3-MCT) inEURO-CORDEXcompliantexperimentsat12kmresolutionoverEurope. IncoupledERA-InterimdrivenTSMPsensitivityandprocess studies,withclosed terrestrialwaterandenergycycles,amore realisticgroundwater representation (full3Dgroundwatervs. freedrainage)leads, e.g., to altered soilmoisture-temperature feedbacks,with an alleviation of air temperatureextremesduringthe2003Europeandroughtandheatwaveofupto1K.Anensuing30-yearcontinentalTSMPevaluationrunshows,e.g.,animprovedrepresentationofthespatio-temporalvariabilityofRCMair temperature anomalies when compared to observations, complementing the existing EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble. The associated pristine (i.e., no human interference) groundwaterclimatology,consistentwiththeatmosphericforcing,mayserveasabaselinedatasettoassessfuturehydro-climaticextremesandtheimpactofhumanwateruse.Inapilotstudy,usingTSMPwithandwithout human water use, systematic atmospheric feedbacks can be induced by groundwaterabstractionandirrigationthatleadtoachangeinthestrengthofthecontinentalsinkforatmosphericwater and these feedbacks are in turn drivers for terrestrial water storage changes, which mayaggravatethedryingofaridwatersheds.

Keywords: CORDEX, TSMP, groundwater-to-atmosphere, coupled modeling, water resources


QuantifyingtheevolutionofagricultureimpactonclimateinEuropebyobservationandregionalclimatemodelsimulations

BoHuang,NorwegianUniversityofScienceandTechnology(NTNU),Norway

BoHuang,XiangpingHu,JanSandstadNæss,FrancescoCherubini,NorwegianUniversityofScienceandTechnology(NTNU),Norway

Agriculturalsectorisanimportantpartoftheanthropogeniclandusechangewhichplaysaprominentroleinstabilizingglobalmeantemperatureriseto2°Corless.Changesintheextentandmagnitudeoflocal-to-regionalclimatebyagricultureevolutionarestillnotexplored.Inthisstudy,wesimulateand analyze the climate response to different ranges of agricultural area changeswith a regionalclimatemodel (WRF v.3.9.1) in EURO-CORDEX (European branch of the international CoordinatedRegional climate Downscaling Experiment-CORDEX initiative) domain. Different experiments areenvisionedinthisstudy,includingacontrolrunandsimulationsbasedonidealizedextensivecroplandloss or cropland gain. The simulations also includemore realistic agricultural area changes acrossdifferent land cover classes. The investigated parameters will be the changes of temperature,precipitation, and frequency of temperature extremes at both the entire EURO-CORDEX domain(regionalscale)andthechangedgrids(localscale).Resultswillalsobecomparedtoobservationdatagathered fromsatellite retrievals. In thegridcell affectedby landcoverchange,weexpect to findclimatechangesthataremoresignificantthaninnon-affectedareas.Alatitudinalpatternandseasonalvariabilityshouldalsoemerge.Ofparticularinterestwillbetheunderstandingofthespatialpatternsoftheclimateresponsetothetransitionbetweencroplandandothertypesof landcoverchanges,theirsensitivitytospaceandlocation,andtheanalysisofpossiblecorrelationswithdifferentkindsofcroplandandclimateparameters.AsbiophysicaleffectsfromagricultureevolutionshapeEuropeanclimateindifferentways,furtherdevelopmentsandbetterunderstandingofland-climateinteractionscanultimatelyassistdecisionmakerstomodulatelandmanagementstrategiesatdifferentscalesinlightofclimatechangemitigationandadaptation.

Keywords: land use/cover change, regional climate mode, biophysical mechanisms, cropland, EURO-CORDEX


DouncertaintiesinthereconstructionoflandcoveraffectthesimulationofairtemperatureandrainfallintheCORDEXRegionofEastAsia?

JunGe,NanjingUniversity,China

JunGe,NanjingUniversity,China;AndrewPitman,UniversityofNewSouthWales;WeidongGuo,ShuyuWang,CongbinFu,NanjingUniversityn-,China

Land cover type reconstructions, required in climate models, commonly utilize remote sensingproducts. There are inevitablemisclassifications in land cover reconstructions due to the retrievalprocess. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting model to determine whether thesemisclassifications can affect the simulations of air temperature and rainfall over the CoordinatedRegionalClimateDownscalingExperiment(CORDEX)EastAsiaregion,wheretheaccuracyofthelandcoverclassificationislow.TheModerateResolutionImagingSpectroradiometerlandcovermapisusedforthecontrolsimulationsandisthenreplacedbythemostlikelyalternativelandcovertypeatpixelswhere the classification confidence is below various threshold values. Results show thatmisclassification-inducedlandcoverchangecanaffectkeybiogeophysicalcharacteristics(albedo,leafareaindex,androughnesslength)andthesecanaffectthesensibleandlatentheatfluxesatregionalscales.However,theimpactonairtemperatureisverylimitedandisrestrictedtotheTibetanPlateauwherewarmingofupto2°Coccursassociatedwiththereplacementofbarrenorsparselyvegetatedlandtograssland.Theimpactonrainfall isnegligible,andmostchangesarelikelycausedbymodelinternalvariabilityratherthanlandcoverchange.Overall,uncertaintiesinthereconstructionoflandcoverhavenegligible impacts,andtheModerateResolution ImagingSpectroradiometer landcoverproductcanbeusedinregionalsimulationsoverEastAsia.However,wenotethatlandcoverchangeexperimentsincorporatinguncertaintiesmustutilizelargenumbersofsimulationsifairtemperatureandrainfallchangesaretobeexaminedrobustly.

Keywords: MODIS land cover map, Air temperature, Rainfall, WRF model, CORDEX East Asia


EffectsofvegetationfractionvariationonregionalclimateovereasternChina

YanYan,SchoolofAtmosphericSciences,NanjingUniversity,China

YanYan,JianpingTang,GangLiu,SchoolofAtmosphericSciences,NanjingUniversity,China;JianWu,DepartmentofAtmosphericScience,YunnanUniversity,China

The interactionsbetween theatmosphereandvegetationareofmajor importance for theclimatechange. Terrestrial vegetation can regulate the local weather and climate through modifying thesurfaceenergybudgetandexchangesofheat,water,andmomentumwiththeatmosphere.Themainpurpose of this study is to investigate on the influence of vegetation viations on regional climatesimulationoverEasternChina.Therefore,three30-yearsimulationsfrom1982to2011withtheWRFmodel coupled with the Noah land surface model have been performed as follows: a controlexperiment(CTL)withNOAAclimatologygreenvegetationfraction(GVF)during1982-2011,asensitiveexperiment(CLMV)withWRFdefaultclimatologyGVFduring1985-1991,andasensitiveexperiment(DYNV)withdynamicvegetationduring1982-2011derivedfromtheNOAAGVIsystem.ItisdetectedfromtheclimatologydifferencebetweenCTLandCLMVandthelineartrenddifferencebetweenDYNVandCTLthatthe increaseofvegetationwilldecreasethetemperatureandviceversa,andnoclearrelation is found between precipitation and GVF change. In response to GVF change, the climaticprecipitationresponsesareclearlyinsignificantandheterogeneous,andthevegetation-precipitationfeedbackmainlydeterminedby thecomplicatedmoisture feedback,dominatingover theradiationandmomentumfeedback.ThechangeofGVFdataalsoaltersextremesandheatwave.OverregionssouthoftheYangtzeRiver,theDYNVsimulationoftheinterannualvariationfortheextremessuchasmaximumofdailymaximumtemperature(TXx),warmspelldays(WSDI)andheatwaveindiceshavebeen improved. However, it also introduces new biases on the minimum of daily minimumtemperature(TNn)andcoldspelldays(CSDI)aswellasintheEasterncoastalregionsandNortheasternChina.

Keywords: vegetation variations, extremes


Theroleofsoiltextureinlocalandnon-locallandsurface–atmosphereinteractions

E.HugoBerbery,ESSIC/CICSUniversityofMaryland,UnitedStates

EliDennis,E.HugoBerbery,ESSIC/CICSUniversityofMaryland,UnitedStates

The landsurface is inextricably linkedtotheatmosphericcirculationas itdictates the locationandstrengthofland–atmospherecouplingmechanismsviacontrolsonsurfacefluxes.Arguably,oneofthemostfundamentalcomponentsofthelandsurfaceisthetextureofthesoil(i.e.,theproportionsofsand,siltorclay).Inmodernnumericalweatherandclimateprediction,itisnecessarytoprescribeadistribution of soil texture classifications within the land surface model, which acts as the lowerboundaryconditionfortheatmosphericmodel.Comparisonoftwowidelyusedsoiltexturedatabases,theUSDAStateSoilGeographicdatabase(STATSGO)andBeijingNormalUniversity’sglobal1-kmsoiltexturedatabase,GlobalSoilDataset foruse inEarthSystemModels (GSDE),overSouthernNorthAmerica at 15-kmhorizontal grid spacing, reveals that only 33%of terrestrial classifications are incommon.SeasonalWRFsimulationswereconductedtoassesstheimpactsofchangingthesoiltexturedatabase.Changes in the soil texture databases influence the simulation of thermodynamic variables (i.e.,temperature,humidityprofiles).Atthesurfaceinthelateafternoon,changesoftheorderof45–50W/m2arenotedinthelatentandsensibleheatfluxes.Seasonal-averagedtemperaturechangesareapproximately1–2Kovermostof thedomainwith thepositiveandnegativevaluesmirroring thechanges insoiltexturecategories.Further,changes intexturehavedynamicaleffects,affectingtheboundarylayerstructureandevolutionandtheorientationandstrengthoftheGreatPlainsLowLevelJet (GPLLJ). Using the GSDE database increases the GPLLJ seasonal-average by 1–2 m/s andconsequentlythecorrespondingmoisturefluxes.Resultingchangesinprecipitationareobserved,andchangesmaybecomeaslargeastheaveragetotalrainfalloversomeimportantagriculturalregionsoftheUnitedStates.

Keywords: land-atmosphere interactions,soil properties


Theimpactofthelanduseandlandcover(LULC)changeonregionalclimateinChinasimulatedwithWRFmodel

YouminChen,HenanUniversity,China

TheWRFmodel is employed in this study to simulate how the LULC changemakes an impact ontemperature and precipitation in the area of China. First, we carried out the climate downscalingsimulation, inwhich, the reanalysis data from ECMWF and climate scenario data fromNorwegianglobalmodel(NorESM)asthemeteorologyinputdatarespectively.TheMODISdataoftheyear2001isusedinallthesimulationasLULC.BasedontheusedMODISdataofLULC,werepeatedtheWRFsimulationwithartificiallymodifyingLULC,inthreecasesasallLULCsbeingtheforest,grassland,andbarelandrespectively.Theresultshowsthatbothforestandgrasslandwouldincreaseprecipitation,with bare land reducing precipitation in China. On the other hand, the grassland did not altertemperaturesignificantly,however,theforestandbarelandrobustlyincreasethetemperature.Theforest mainly increases winter temperature, while the bare land mainly increases the summertemperature,whichleadstoasmallertemperaturedifferencebetweenwinterandsummerforforestexperimentandlargertemperaturedifferenceforthebarelandexperiment.Therefore,thesimulationexperimentsmanifestthattheLULCchangewillchangetheregionalclimatesignificantly.

Keywords: WRF simulation, land use land cover change


IntegratingRemoteSensingDatawithWRFmodelforImprove2mTemperatureandHumiditysimulationsinChina

XiaohangWen,ChengduUniversityinformationtechnology,China

DongdongYan,BeijingNormalUniversity,China;XiaohangWen,ChengduUniversityinformationtechnology

Thedatasetsoffractionofgreenvegetationcoverage(GVF)estimatedbyremotesensingandusedinWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, was produced many years ago, and itsrepresentationisgraduallydeteriorating.ThelatestModerateResolutionImagingSpectroradiometer(MODIS)productscanbeusedtoupdatetheunderlyingsurfacestaticdatasetsinWRF．Inthisstudy,ThedefaultGVFdatawasreplacedbytheestimatedGVF,whichwascalculatedbytheNormalizedDifference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of MODIS in the WRF model. We compared the result ofmeteorologicalelements,suchas2mtemperature,andspecifichumiditybetweenWRFmodelcontrolrunexperiment(WRF-CTL),andmodifiedWRFsimulations(WRF-MODIS)andobservationsfrom824weatherstationsinChina.Theresultsshowthat2mtemperatureandspecifichumidityfromWRF-MODIS is improved compared with The WRF-CTL, and has effectively reproduced the observedpattern.Thecorrelationcoefficientof2mtemperatureandspecifichumiditybetweenobservationsandWRF-MODISis increasedcomparedtoWRF-CTL.TheRMSEandbiasofspecifichumidityisalsoreducedinWRF-MODIS.However,WRF-MODISoverestimatesthespecifichumidityinSouthChinainsummer.Theoverestimatedspecifichumidity inSouthChinamaybedue toahigherGVF inWRF-MODISsimulations.

Keywords: WRF model, MODIS-NDVI, temperature, specific humidity


B1: Atmosphere-land



GAOL AdelinaContributionofUrbanHeatIslandonLandscapeCompositionandItsImpacttotheLandSurfaceTemperature(CaseStudyonPalembangCity-Indonesia)

B1-P-01

GILES Julian DiurnalcycleofprecipitationandatmospherichumidityfluxinSouthAmerica:roleofland-atmosphereinteractions B1-P-02

HIRSCH Annette LandsurfacecontributionstotheamplificationofAustralianheatwavesvialocalland-atmospherecoupling B1-P-03

HOFFMANN Peter ResponseofLUCAS-modelstoforestationandafforestationinEuropeunderdry,wetandhotclimateconditions B1-P-04

KUMAR DHIRENDRA IndianSummerMonsooninacoupledland-atmosphereregionaldownscalingexperiment B1-P-05

LIU SILIANGRegionalclimateimpactassessmentofvegetationchangeinLoessPlateau:combiningWRF-Noahmodelandlongtimeseriessatelliteobservations

B1-P-06

MAOSHAN Li ThestudyofthesurfaceroughnesslengthanditsapplicationintheNoahMPonthenorthernoftheTibetanPlateau B1-P-07

MARGARYAN Pargev ProbabledeviationsofairtemperatureinthesurfacelayerofaridregionsofArmeniainthecontextofglobalclimatechange B1-P-08

MARGARYAN VarduhiDynamicschangeofannualnumberofatmosphericprecipitationofAraratphysicalgeographicalaridregioninglobalclimatechangecontext

B1-P-09

NTOLE Romain ForecastofPlantingCalendarforSorghum(Sorghumbicolor)fromDownscalingMethodinKivuMountain,DRCongo B1-P-10

REBOITA Michelle LandsurfacetemperatureinhighresolutionsimulationswithRegCMoverSoutheasternBrazil B1-P-11

SEMENOVA Inna ProjectedTrendsofPrecipitationRegimeinUkraineDuringthePeriodof2020-2050 B1-P-12

SILVA MariaElisa ClimaticimpactoverSouthAmericacausedbytheAmazondeforestationduringdistinctPacificDecadalOscillationphases B1-P-13

SINGH Charu AnanalysisofextremerainfalleventsovertheHimalayanregionusingcoupledmodels B1-P-14

TEOTIA ManojKumar InstitutionalizationofClimateAdaptationPractices:ACaseStudyofPlannedcityofChandigarh,India B1-P-15

WANG Xuejia CharacterizationofairandsurfacetemperaturecouplingovertheTibetanPlateau:Resultsfrommulti-sourcereanalyses B1-P-16

YAN Yan AssessmentoftheUncertaintiesofOptionsintheNoah-MPLandSurfaceModelSimulationsoverChina B1-P-17

ZACHARIAH Johnson ImpactofEquatorialandNorthernBayofBengalSST'sontheIndiansummermonsoonrainfall B1-P-18


B1-P-01

ContributionofUrbanHeatIslandonLandscapeCompositionandItsImpacttotheLandSurfaceTemperature(CaseStudyonPalembangCity-Indonesia)

AdelinaGaol,IndonesianAgencyofMeteorologyClimatologyandGeophysics,Indonesia

AdelinaGaol,YopiSerhalawan,IndonesianAgencyofMeteorologyClimatologyandGeophysics,Indonesia;PaulusWinarso,SchoolofMeteorologyClimatologyandGe,Indonesia

PalembangasthecapitalofSouthSumatraProvince,andalsofamousasthehostoftheAsianGames2018hashighdevelopmentactivitiesalongwiththeincreasingpopulation.Developmentcarriedoutthroughthediversionoflandfunctionsintobuilt-uplandcausesanincreaseinsurfacetemperaturewhich triggers theurbanheat islandphenomenon. This study aims todiscuss thephenomenonofUrbanHeatIslandinPalembangCityanditsrelationtolandcompositionandpopulationdensityonsurfacetemperaturesobtainedfromtheprocessingofmulti-temporalLandsatImagesin1989,2001,2018, with the specification of cloud-free (clear sky) using the Land Surface Temperature (LST)algorithm and guided classification (supervised). The results of surface temperature, populationdensity,andlandcompositionwerethencarriedoutsimpleregressiontests.ThedistributionoftheUHIphenomenonisobtainedbyclassifyingLSTtoobtaintheUHIthreshold.Theresultsshowedalinkbetweenchangesinsurfacetemperature,populationdensityandlandcomposition.Thevalueofthedeterminant coefficient (R2) between the relationship of changes in surface temperaturewhich isdirectlyproportionaltotheincreasingpopulation,theincreaseintheareaofeachopenlandandbuilt-up land reached 62.6%, 86.3%, and 55.0%. Conversely, there is a negative link between surfacetemperatureanddensevegetationwithadeterminantcoefficientreach90.4%.TheaffectedareaofUHIislocatedinthecenterofPalembang,reaching33.5km2ofthetotalareaofPalembangCityin2018.ItisnecessarytohaveanidealcitymitigationandarrangementbycalculatingthegreenareawiththeincreasingpopulationinPalembangCity.

Keywords: Urban Heat Island, LST, Landsat


B1-P-02

DiurnalcycleofprecipitationandatmospherichumidityfluxinSouthAmerica:roleofland-atmosphereinteractions

JulianGiles,CIMA-UBA-CONICET-UMIIFAECI,Argentina

JulianGiles,RominaRuscica,ClaudioMenendez,CIMA-UBA-CONICET-UMIIFAECI,Argentina

Modelaccuracyofthetimingofprecipitationinitsdiurnalcycleisasimportantasthatofthedailymeantocorrectlyrepresentclimate,butneverthelessitisoftenoverlooked.Weanalyzedthediurnalcyclesofprecipitation(DCP)andconvergenceofatmospherichumidityoverSouthAmericainthewetseason(OctoberthroughMarch),usingtworegionalclimatemodels(RCA4andLMDZ).Thesimulationswere compared with two satellite-derived products and one reanalysis. Consistent with previousresults, these RCMs have a wrong representation of the DCP because precipitation is beingunrealistically triggered too easily. Both models showed qualitatively similar errors in the DCPcomparedtoreferencedata.However,thehumidityfluxconvergence-anecessaryconditionforacorrectrainfallsimulation-anditsdiurnalcycleatthecontinentalscaleweresatisfactorilycapturedcomparedtothereanalysis.Wespeculatethattheboundarylayerevolutionanditsthermodynamicpropertiescouldbesensitivetothecouplingbetweenthesoilandtheatmosphere.Inordertoexploreifthediurnalcyclesofconvectionanddifferentpropertiesoftheboundarylayeraresensitivetotheland-atmosphere coupling, an additional run was performed with each RCM: an Uncoupledexperiment that shares the sameset-upas thecontrol (coupled)one,except that its soil-moistureevolutionateachdayisreplacedwiththeclimatologyofthecontrolforthatday,uncouplingthelandsurface from the atmosphere. The main results of this experiment will be presented during theconference.

Keywords: diurnal cycle, south america, precipitation, atmospheric humidity flux convergence, land-atmosphere coupling,soil moisture


B1-P-03

LandsurfacecontributionstotheamplificationofAustralianheatwavesvialocalland-atmospherecoupling

AnnetteHirsch,CLEX/UNSW,Australia(presentedbyJ.Evans)

AnnetteHirsch,JasonEvans,CLEX/UNSW,Australia;GiovanniDiVirgillio,UNSW,-;SarahPerkins-Kirkpatrick,UNSW,-;DanielArgüeso,U.BalearicIslands,-;AndrewPitman,CLEX/UNSW,-;ClaireCarouge,CLEX/UNSW,-;JatinKala,MurdochUni,-;JuliaAndrys,MurdochUni,-;PaolaPetrelli,

CLEX/UTAS,-;BurkhardtRockel,Helmholtz-ZentrumGeesthacht

Climatechangeis likelytoincreasethefrequency, intensityanddurationofheatwaves,particularlyoverAustralia.Heatwavesposeasignificant risk toecosystemandhumanhealthasevident in theimpactsofseveralwelldocumentedcasestudies, includingthe2003Europeanheatwave,the2010Russianheatwaveandthe2012/2013summerinAustralia.Heatwavesaregenerallyassociatedwiththeclearskies,increasedsubsidence,warmairadvectionandprolongedheatarisingfrompersistentquasi-stationaryhigh-pressuresystems.However,landsurfaceconditionshavebeenshowntohavean influence on amplifying the surface temperatures experienced during a heatwave.Mostanalyses todate focuson the roleanomalous soilmoistureconditionsprecedingexceptionalevents(e.g.the2003Europeanheatwave).However,ingeneralitisnotknownhowmuchtherateofland surface drying, through land-atmosphere interactions, both before and during a heatwavecontributestotheintensityoftheseextremeevents.Therefore,inthisstudyweexaminehowtherateoflandsurfacedryingprecedingaheatwaveeventcontributestoheatwaveintensity.Herewefocuson Australian heatwaves using both observational data and model output from the CORDEXAustralAsiaproject.Wefindthatrateoflandsurfacedryingpriortoaheatwaveeventinfluencesthemagnitudeoftemperatureanomaliesexperiencedbutonlyoverregionswherethereisstrongcouplingbetweenthe landandtheatmosphere.Wealsofindthatheatwavesaretriggeredmorefrequentlyoverregionswherethereisstrongland-atmospherecoupling.Timepermitting,wewillalsopresentnewresultsdistinguishingbetweendynamicalandnon-locallandsurfacecontributions.

Keywords: land-atmosphere interactions, heatwaves


B1-P-04

ResponseofLUCAS-modelstoforestationandafforestationinEuropeunderdry,wetandhotclimateconditions

PeterHoffmann,ClimateServiceCenterGermany(GERICS),Helmholtz-ZentrumGeesthacht,Hamburg,Germany

PeterHoffmann,DianaRechid,ClimateServiceCenterGermany(GERICS),Helmholtz-ZentrumGeesthacht,Hamburg,Germany;EdouardDavin,EidgenössischeTechnischeHochschuleETHZurich,

Zurich,Switzerland;NathaliedeNoblet-Ducoudré,LaboratoiredesSciencesduClimatetdel'Environment,IPSL,France;EleniKatragkou,DepartmentofMeteorologyandClimatology,Schoolof

Geology,AristotleUniversityofThessaloniki,Greece;MarcusBreil,InstituteofMeteorologyandClimateResearch,KarlsruheInstituteofTechnology(KIT),Germany;RitaCardoso,InstitutoDomLuiz(IDL),FaculdadedeCiências,UniversidadedeLisboa,Portugal;ErikaCoppola,InternationalCenterforTheoreticalPhysics(ICTP),EarthSystemPhysicsSection,Italy;LisaJach,InstituteofPhysicsandMeteorology,UniversityofHohenheim,Germany;SwantjePreuschmann,ClimateServiceCenterGermany(GERICS),Helmholtz-ZentrumGeesthacht,Germany;KaiRadtke,ChairofEnvironmentalmeteorology,BrandenburgUniversityofTechnology,Germany;MarioRaffa,REgionalModelsandgeo-HydrologicalImpacts,CentroEuro-MediterraneosuiCambiamentiClimatici,Italy;Vanessa

Reinhart,ClimateServiceCenterGermany(GERICS),Helmholtz-ZentrumGeesthacht,Germany;PedroSoares,InstitutoDomLuiz(IDL),FaculdadedeCiências,UniversidadedeLisboa,Portugal;IoannisSofiadis,DepartmentofMeteorologyandClimatology,SchoolofGeology,AristotleUniversityofThessaloniki,Greece;SusannaStrada,InternationalCenterforTheoreticalPhysics(ICTP),EarthSystemPhysicsSection,Italy;GustavStrandberg,RossbyCentre,SwedishMeteorologicalandHydrologicalInstitute,Sweden;MerjaTölle,DepartmentofGeography,Climatology,Climate

DynamicsandClimateChange,Justus-LiebigUniversityGiessen,Germany;KirstenWarrach-Sagi,InstituteofPhysicsandMeteorology,UniversityofHohenheim,Germany;VolkerWulfmeyer,

InstituteofPhysicsandMeteorology,UniversityofHohenheim,Germany

WithintheCORDEXFlagshipPilotStudyLUCAS-"LandUseandClimateAcrossScales",thebio-physicalimpactsofland-useandlandcoverchanges(LULCCs)ontheregionalclimateinEuropearecurrentlyextensivelyinvestigated.Anensembleofdifferentregionalclimatemodels(RCMs)coupledtodiverselandsurfacemodels (LSMs)hasbeensetuptoperformidealizedexperimentswithextremeLULCCscenariosfortheEUR-44domaindrivenbyERA-Interim.Inthefirstscenario,Europeiscoveredwithforestwheretreescanrealisticallygrow(FOREST),whileinthesecondscenarioallforestsareturnedintograssland(GRASS).Anevaluationrun(EVAL)withtheindividualmodellandsurfacedistributionswasalsoconductedforeachparticipatingRCM-LSM.TheresponsesoftheRCM-LSMensembletothetwoextremeLULCCscenariosshowrobustseasonalsignalsforsomeregionsandsomevariablesbutalsodisagreementsbetweenthedifferentRCM-LSM.

In this study, the influence of atmospheric conditions on the responses to the extreme LULCC isinvestigatedtounderstandtheinter-modeldifferencesandtoassestherobustnessoftheresponses.ThisisdonebyanalyzingdifferencesbetweentheFORESTandGRASSsimulationsunderdry,wet,andhotclimateconditions.Dryandwetclimaticconditionsaredetectedusingtwodifferentmethods.Forthe firstmethod, the fivewettest and five driest years are determined in the EVAL runs for eachPRUDENCEregionandseason.Thesecondmethodisbasedonthestandardizedprecipitationindex

(SPI),computedfromthemonthlyprecipitationintheEVALruns.Monthswithalow(high)SPIoverthe majority of the corresponding region are defined as dry (wet) conditions. Regional scale hotconditions are detected using the hot season definition. The differences in near-surface variablesbetweentheFORESTandGRASSsimulationsarethenaveragedforthedifferentclimaticconditionsandcomparedtotheaverageresponsecomputedforthewholeperiod.

Keywords: LUCAS, Land-use and land cover change, extreme climate conditions


B1-P-05

IndianSummerMonsooninacoupledland-atmosphereregionaldownscalingexperiment

DhirendraKumar,JawaharlalNehruUniversity,India

DhirendraKumar,A.P.Dimri,JawaharlalNehruUniversity,India

One of the visions of the CORDEX project is to evaluate and improve different regional climatedownscaling techniques through testing differentmodels over a common area. In this regard, thecapabilityofregionalclimatemodelRegCM4forcedwithtwodifferentGCMsandthreedifferentland-surface parameterization schemes (i.e. BATS, CLM4.5, and Subgrid-BATS) in simulating the meanfeaturesofIndianSummerMonsoonistestedforthepresentclimate(1975-2005).TheselectionoftheGCMs(MIROC5andCCSM4)weremadeonthebasisoftheirabilityinrepresentingtheseasonalmean,inter-annualandtheintra-seasonalvariabilityofmonsoonovertheIndianregionbasedontheavailableliterature.Intotal,6differentlongtermsimulationswerecarriedoutandassessedintermsof seasonal mean near surface air temperature, precipitation and low level wind fields for June-September season over CORDEX-South Asia domain. Among all the experiments, MIROC-RegCM-CLM4.5experimentsoutperformothersinsimulatingtheJJASseasonalmeanprecipitationandwindclimatologywith comparatively lessdrybiasover the Indian region. Themodel performancewereassessed in terms of Taylor's metric (for seasonal mean precipitation, temperature, zonal wind,meridionalwindandtotalcloudfraction),meanannualcycle,IndexofAgreement,NormalizedRootMeanSquaredDeviation,andProbabilitydistributionfunctionovertheIndianlandmassregion.ThemodelexperimentswerefoundtosimulatethemoderateprecipitationeventsmoreaccuratelythanhigherintensityprecipitationeventswhencomparedwithIMDobservations.Theinherentbiasesinthemodelsimulationsareattributedtotheweakermeridionalwindsimulation intheexperimentsalongwithrestrainedverticalmotionduringmonsoonespeciallyincaseofthoseforcedwithCCSM4GCM. This emphasizes the importance of appropriate GCM forcing as well as land surfaceparameterization scheme for the simulation of a coupled land-ocean-atmosphere system such asIndianSummerMonsoon.

Keywords: RegCM4, CLM4.5, CORDEX-South Asia, Monsoon, Downscaling


B1-P-06

RegionalclimateimpactassessmentofvegetationchangeinLoessPlateau:CombiningWRF-Noahmodelandlongtimeseriessatelliteobservations

ShunlinLiang,WuhanUniversity,China

SiliangLiu,WuhanUniversity,China;ShunlinLiang,[email protected],UnitedStates

LoessPlateau(LP),apilotregionwitharidandsemi-aridclimateinChina,hasundergonesignificantvegetationchangesincethelaunchofthe‘GainforGreen’Program(GGP)in1999.AstheaimofGGPtoincreaseforestcoverandcontrolsoilerosion,partsofagriculturelandhaveconvertedtoforestsand grassland. The net warming or cooling effect of afforestation in this region is still uncertain,dependingonthecompetingcontributionsofalbedoandevapotranspirationaswellasbackgroundclimate. Further, it is reported that vegetation change has altered the rainfall distribution andfrequencyinLP.

Withtheavailabilityofdecadesofsatelliteobservations,thetransitionoflandcovertypesandchangeofvegetationstatuscanberepresentedrealistically.Throughincorporatingthisinformationintothestaticfieldofcoupledatmosphere-landregionalclimatemodel,itisexpectedtoquantifytheclimateeffectsduetovegetationchange.

Theobjectiveofthisstudyistoinvestigatehowsurfaceairtemperatureandprecipitationresponsetovegetation change due to government policy in LP, through combining multiple long time seriessatelliteproductsfrom1982to2016andWRF-Noahmodel.TohighlighttheeffectofGGPandavoidsensorscalibrationissue,thewholetemporalrangeisdividedintotwoperiods:1982-1999and2000-2016.Contrastingsensitivityexperimentsareconductedusingrealvegetationobservationsandstaticvegetationbackgroundtoisolatetheeffectsofvegetationchange.

Keywords: Vegetation Change, Climate Effects


B1-P-07

ThestudyofthesurfaceroughnesslengthanditsapplicationintheNoahMPonthenorthernoftheTibetanPlateau

MaoshanLi,ChengduUniversityofinformationtechnology,-

MaoshanLi,XiaoranLiu,ChengduUniversityofinformationtechnology,China

ThisstudyfocusesonthetemporalandspacevariationoftheroughnesslengthonthenorthernoftheTibetanPlateau.Thefiguresshowthatthereisthedistributionofthesurfaceaerodynamicroughnessof40000km2aroundBJsite(BJsiteisinthecenter,timeistakenonthe15thofeachmonth).ItcanbeseenfromthefigurethatthesurfaceroughnessoftheareashowsadecreasingtrendfromJanuarytoFebruary,whichmaybeduetosnowfallandotherreasons,resultinginasmallsurfaceroughnessandacontinualdecreaseinsurfaceroughness.FromFebruary15toMarch15,thez0mhasrecoveredsomewhat inamonthas figureC isbasicallyconsistentwithfigureA, it indicatesthatthez0mhasreachedto its lowest, itcould indicatebysnowfallmustbegintomelt,andthecontributionofthecomplexunderlyingsurfaceenvironmenttoz0misenhanced.OnMarch,April,Mayz0mcontinuestoincrease,andthevegetable lowgrowth in these threemonths, themonthlychartchangesarenotlarge. These figures show the coverage of the surface is indicating the complexity of the surface,whetherthesurfaceorvegetationwillhaveanimportantimpactonthez0m.FromMarchuntilAugust,z0m has been on a rising trend. Corresponding to the obvious changes of relative humidity,temperature and pressure brought by the summer monsoon mentioned above, the height andcoverageofsurfacevegetationareallincreasing.Therefore,z0misalsoconstantlyincreasing,reachingitspeakinAugust.ItisnoteworthythatthechangefromMaytoJuneisverysignificant.ThismaybeduetothestartofthecorrespondingplateausummermonsooninJune,whichwillleadtotheincreaseofprecipitation.Aftertheprecipitationincreases,thegrowthofvegetationwillaccelerateandthez0mwill rapidly increase. June, July, August three months, due to continuous precipitation and otherreasons, leading to plant growth is very strong, but grow to the maximum no longer grow,corresponding to the map is the maximum surface roughness has not changed, but due to theabundantwater, thez0mgraduallyexpanded in thepast threemonthsandreachedthemaximumareainAugust.FromSeptembertoDecember,withthedeclineofplateaumonsoon,somechangeshave taken place in temperature and relative humidity, compared with the prevailing summermonsoon,whicharenolongersuitableforthegrowthofvegetation.Fromthismonth,thevegetationcontribution to z0m is gradually weakened, and the height and coverage area of z0m graduallydecrease.Therefore,z0malsodecreasescontinuouslyandtherangebeginstodecrease.InDecember,thez0mareanearBJsitesuddendecreasemaybeduetosnowfall.

Itcanalsobeseenfromtheabovesimulationthatthez0mchangesnotonlyimpresswiththetimescalebutalsowiththespatialscale.Fromthesefiguresofthecharacteristicstrend,wecanseethattheunderlyingsurfacehasdifferentcomplexity,thetrendofthez0misdifferent.Afterinvertingthesatelliteremotesensingdata,wealsogetthevariationofz0mof40000km2aroundtheBJstationatnorthernTibetanPlateauin2008,whichshowsthedatadecreasefromJan.toFeb.ItreachesitspeakinAug.andthendecreaseagain.Thisannualvariationistosomeextentrelatedtotheplateausummermonsoonandsnowfall.Besides,thevegetationheightindryseasonsislow,sothez0misdeterminedmainlybythereliefoflandsurfaceindryseason.Ontheotherhand,improvedroughnesslengthwas

applicated in the NoahMP simulation process and the simulated results were evaluated usingobservation.

Keywords: the roughness length,numerical simulation,Tibetan Plateau


B1-P-08

ProbabledeviationsofairtemperatureinthesurfacelayerofaridregionsofArmeniainthecontextofglobalclimatechange

PargevMargaryan,YerevanStateUniversity.ChairoftheTheoryofProbabilityandMathematicalStatistics.,Armenia

PargevMargaryan,VarduhiMargaryan,YerevanStateUniversity.,Armenia

Today the effects of climate change are felt around the world and Armenia is not an exception.Armenia ischaracterizedbyvulnerablemountainousecosystems,aridclimate,anactiveprocessofdesertificationandnaturaldisastersareoftenobserved,whichmakesthecountrymorevulnerabletheimpacts of climate change. The air temperature has a main role in the forming of atmospherecirculation,evaporationandmoistureregimeofterritory.Thatiswhytheairtemperaturestudyisanimportant task and caught our attention. So, clarifying and estimation of regularities of temporaldistributionofairtemperatureimportance,especiallyformoreaccuratedefinitionofthermalbalance,forproductiveusingofthermalresources.

Forsolvingofsuggestedproblemsasatheoreticalbasehavebeenusedappropriateresearches,asarawmaterial-actualdataoflong-termobservationsofairtemperaturesthemeteorologicalstationoftheterritoryofrepublicforlast100years,whicharekeptinfondArmstatehydromet.Inworkhavebeen applied methods: mathematic-statistical, geographical, extrapolation, analysis, correlation,complex.

AveragedataofairtemperatureobservationsinArmeniaatmeteorologicalstationsfortheperiodof1935-2017hasbeenanalyzed.

Instudyareathevaluesofaverageannualairtemperaturearewithin14.3ºC(Meghri)and-2.6ºC(Aragats).DuringtheyearthewarmestmonthsareJuly-August,withaveragemonthlytemperature9.0…27.0ºC,andthecoldestmonthareJanuarywithaveragemonthlytemperature-12.7…1.5ºC.

InArmeniaairtemperaturechangeshavebeenestimatedfordifferentperiods,andresultshavebeenusedinfirstandsecondnationalmessagesofClimateChangeofRA.Theresultsshow,thatduringlastten-years period in Armenia observes increasing of air temperature. During 1935-96 period forcomparisontobasicperiod (1961-1990)averageannual temperature increasedon0.4ºC, in1935-2007period–0.85 ºC, in1935-2012period -on1.03 ºC. Itmeans that the tempsof temperatureincreasing increased.Since1994thedeviationsofaverageannual temperature incomparisonwithaveragetemperaturein1961-1990wereonlypositive.

BytheforecastsofECHAMS,GFDL,GISSER,HadCM3modelsinArmeniapredictsannualincreaseofairtemperaturefor1.1-1.5ºCin2011-2040,2.0-3.0ºCin2041-2070,and3.5-5.5ºC–in2071-2100.So,intheresultsofstudieswehavethefollowingconclusionsandsuggestions:

Inperennialobservationsnotesatendencyofincreaseofannualaveragevaluesofairtemperature;

- have beenmademany researches, but there are not studies systemized of reasons of airtemperaturechangeyet,andexistedare just forsomesidesof it.So, isbetter tocontinuestudiesandtodevelopfutureforecasts,usingnewmodels;

- estimationofproblemsofairtemperaturedynamicschangewillgetrightsolving,whenwillbe known the relations, which it have with other components of nature area complex inconditionsofdirectinfluenceofhuman.

Isnecessary:

- providingofmeteorologicalstationswithmodernequipment(especiallyautomatic);

- evaluationofthevulnerabilityofecosystemsasaresultofchangesinairtemperature;

- realizationlegal-organization,institutional,technicalarrangementsforadaptationofeconomytonewnaturalconditionsandsoftenofclimatechangeconsequences;

- strengthening of scientific studies of climatic problems and implementation of newtechnologies;

- workingoutofrealclimaticscenarios;

- workingoutoftheprogramsforsofteningthenegativeeffectsofairtemperaturechange;

- financial satisfy support from government and other donor organizations madeimplementationsmustbevisibleforsociety,directedforrealizationofspecificprogramsandhavecontrolbysomeorgans;

- providingofmodernwaysofavailabilityandoutspreadofinformation;

- working out and implementation of qualification programs, organization of studyingprocesses,developmentofspecialists’qualification;

- realization and providing international scientific-educational cooperation, strengthening ofinter-agencycooperation.

Keywords: air temperature, arid regions, probable deviations, global climate change, Armenia


B1-P-09

DynamicschangeofannualnumberofatmosphericprecipitationofArabatphysicalgeographicalaridregioninglobalclimatechangecontext

VarduhiMargaryan,YerevanStateUniversity.FacultyofGeographyandGeology.DepartmentofPhysicalGeographyandHydrometeorology.,Armenia

The atmospheric precipitation change is a reason of different dangers ecological situationsmanifestations.Needtostudythecause-and-effectrelationshipsofprecipitationchangebecamemorevitalsincethelate20thcentury,whenitbecameclearthatthesustainabledevelopmentofthesocietyduetoclimatecomponentsprotection

So,consideringtheabove,studiedandevaluatedthedynamicschangeofannualprecipitationofanimportantagriculturalregionoftherepublic,Araratvalley,clarifiedthedistributionpatterns,revealedthechallengesofsphere.

Forsolvetheseproblemsasatheoreticalandinformativebasisservedappropriatestudies,publishedworks, decisions of the Armenian government, reports, development programs, projects, workingplans.Asastartingmaterialusedactualdateoflong-termobservationofatmosphericprecipitation(1935-2015)ofmeteorologicalstationsofArmstatehydrometofMESofRAofstudyarea,aswellasclimatic reference-books. As a methodological basis used geographical, mathematics-statistical,extrapolation,matching,comparison,analysis,correlationmethods.

Thetasksofatmosphericprecipitationchangediscussedandstudiedbytheresultsofactualdataofseparatemeteorologicalstations.Asaresultofthestudyrevealed,thatintheregionobservesregularspatialdistributionofdynamicschangeofthenumberofprecipitationduringtheyear.Thus,attheterritoryofAraratvalleyisnoticedincreaseofamountofannualprecipitationuntil1300mheight,andon greater heights-tendency of decrease. But it does notmeans, that humidification and artificialirrigationissueofvalleyareresolved.Thereasonis,thatatlowzoneduetohighairtemperatureanditsincreasetendencyisgreattheevaporation,therefore,thelossofprecipitationalso.Ontheotherhand,ontheterritoryoftheRAtheriverrunoffisformedat1800mandmoreheightsmainly.Andinthiszoneobservesonlyadecreasetendencyofprecipitation.So,it isnecessarytomanageanduseright the water resources from atmospheric precipitation, especially in the context of the globalclimatechange.

According to regional climatic models (Armstatehydromet) in Armenia is expected an increase ofannualtemperatureon1.1-1.5ºCin2011-2040,2.0-3.0ºC-in2041-2070,3.5-5.5ºC–in2071-2099anddecreaseofannualprecipitationappropriatelyon5-10%,10-15%,15-25%.

Thus, in the resultof suchchangeofatmosphericprecipitationwillobservedaviolationofnaturalecosystem balance, particularly an aridity of climatic conditions, sail degradation, biodiversityviolation.So,itisnecessarytoevaluateprecipitationchangewithecosystemapproach,byseparatephysical-geographical regions or river basins, to work out appropriate programs of consequencesmitigationandadaptionevents,takingintoaccountlocalfeaturesofanyarea.

Intheresultofstudieswecametofollowingconclusionsandproposals:

• Theatmosphericprecipitationbelongstothatmeteorologicalelements,whichcharacterizedwithmorelocalfeaturesofspatiotemporaldistribution;

• Thenumberofprecipitationregularly increasesfromlowregionsofvalleytosouth-easternslopesofAragats.Maximumannualnumberofprecipitation(988mm), intheRepublicalso,observes at Aragats meteorological station, minimum number (166 mm) – at Taronikmeteorologicalpoint;

• Ontheresultofstudyhasnegativeeffectacircumstance,thatinstudyareameteorologicalstationsandpointsarelocateduntil1200mheightmainly,at1300-2000mheighttheirnumberis2;

• Until1300mheightisobservedatendencyofincreaseofannualnumberofprecipitation,andmorehigher–atendencyofdecrease;

• In the conditions of conservation of such cause of precipitation change, probably, will begrowthofaridityoftheregion,intensivesoildegradation.

Itisnecessary

• Providingofcontinuouscomprehensiveandsystematicscientificstudiesofdynamicschangeofprecipitation,investmentofnewprogramsandtechnologies;

• Providingofhomogeneity,continuityandreliabilityofobservationsofactualdataseries;

• Trainingprofessionals,organizingoftrainingcoursescontinuously;

• Improvingofinformationandnotificationsystems;

• Evaluationofvulnerabilityofecosystemsduetoprecipitationchange;

• Reserving ofwater of small streams and rivulets of upland areas during humid period forirrigationrelativelydryareasindryseasoninlowareas;

• Mitigation of legal-organizational, institutional, technical events for softening of effects ofatmosphericprecipitationchangeandadaptingofeconomytonewnaturalconditions.

Keywords: atmospheric precipitation , global climate change, Ararat physical geographical, arid region


B1-P-10

ForecastofPlantingCalendarforSorghum(Sorghumbicolor)fromDownscalingMethodinKivuMountain,DRCongo

RomainNtole,UniversiteEvangeliqueenAfrique,DemRepofCongo

RomainNtole,BajopeBaluku,UniversiteEvangeliqueenAfrique,DemRepofCongo;NapoleonKajunji,MakerereUniversity,DemRepofCongo

Assessing impact of climate change on Sorghum production and analysis of future adaptationmeasuresbearsenormousadvantagesingeneralandinSouthKivuinparticular,owingtothecountry’slow adaptive capacity. The analysis shows that climate changewill reduce Sorghumproduction inSouthKivuMountainthroughtimehorizons i.etill theyear2030s,2050sand2080s.Thisstudywasconductedtocharacterizeclimate,assessitsimpactonSorghumproductionandidentifymanagementoptionsfortheclimatefuturedatesinSouthkivuMountainDRCongo.Dailyclimatedata,normalizedlarge scaleHadley Centre coupledModel version 3model predictors and crop and soil datawereanalyzed.Pastandpresentclimatevariabilitycharacterizationwasassessedthroughseasonalrainfallamount,monthlyrainfallstatisticsanddryspelllengthusingRanalyticaltoolandINSTATclimateguide.Temperaturevariabilitywasexaminedintermsofpatternandtrend.Forfutureprojection,Climatechangescenariosforrainfall,minimumandmaximumtemperaturesweredevelopedfortheperiod2001-2099byusingtheHadleyCentrecoupledModelversion3underA2aandB2aSpecialReportonEmissionScenariosusingStatisticalDownscalingModelversion4.1software.DecisionSupportSystemforAgro-technologyTransfer, cropmodelwasused to simulate future changes in Sorghumand todetermine best adaptation measures in Kivu area under modified environment. Seasonal rainfallamountwasfoundtodecreasewithsignificancefor42yearsperiod(P<0.05)whilemonthlyrainfallstatistics showed a high variation (CV of 80.6 to 34.4% acrossmonths).Minimum andmaximumtemperatures showedan increasing trendat interannual scale (0.21ºCperdecadeand0.14ºCperdecaderespectively).Thefutureprojectionanalysisshowedadecreasingtrendofannualrainfallandincreasingtrendfortemperaturesduringtheperiodfrom2001-2099.Accordingly,theaverageannualminimumtemperaturewasfoundtorise in2020,2050and2080sforA2aandtodecreaseforB2aemissionscenarios.Whilemaximumtemperaturewaspredictedtoincreasein2020,2050sand2080sunderbothemissionscenarios.In2080s,theaverageannualmaximumtemperatureincrementwouldbehighforB2ascenarios.Thecropmodelsimulationindicatedapositiveimpactonthecultivarsacrossclimatechangescenariosrelativetobaselineduetoclimatechangeby2100s.Asadaptationoptionsunder changed climate conditions, And best agricultural practices have been found to be acombinationoflateplantingdate,highplantpopulationandhighfertilizerapplicationrate.Thecultivarhasbeen foundtobemoresensitiveonhigh fertilizerapplicationrate.Therefore,growingcultivarunderfutureclimateconditionwithimprovedmanagementoptionssuchashighfertilizerapplicationrate,improvedsoilwaterandplantinginthirddekadofJulycouldensurehighyieldsduringagoodrainyseason.Likewise,goodyieldcouldalsobeobservedduringapoorrainyseason.

Keywords: Downscaling, scenarios, Crop Model, ,Sorghum


B1-P-11

LandsurfacetemperatureinhighresolutionsimulationswithRegCMoverSoutheasternBrazil

MichelleReboita,UniversidadeFederaldeItajubá,Brazil

MichelleReboita,UniversidadeFederaldeItajubá,Brazil;RosmeriP.daRocha,UniversidadedeSãoPaulo,Brazil;MuriloRuvLemes,Brasil,Brazil;MartaLlopart,UniversidadeEstadualPaulista,Brazil

Withtherefinementofthehorizontalresolutionoftheregionalclimatemodels,satelliteobservationshave become a source of information to validate the simulations. In this context, land surfacetemperature (LST) from Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) was used tovalidatetwoRegionalClimateModel(RegCM)version4.6.1simulationsforsoutheasternBrazil.LST-MODIS isregisteredonly inclear-skyconditions.Here,weusedtheLSTfrommergingtheproductsfromthesatellitesTERRAandAQUAwith1kmofhorizontal resolution for2010-year.RegCMwasdrivenbyERA-Interimreanalysisandwasintegratedwith5kmofhorizontalgridspacing,usingtheEmanuel cumulus convection scheme and with different land-surface schemes: the Biosphere–AtmosphereTransferScheme(BATS)andtheCommunityLandModel(CLM).ThesesimulationsweredenominatedRegBATSandRegCLM,respectively.Consideringthewholesimulationdomain,RegBATS(RegCLM)hasatendencytounderestimate(overestimate)theLSTregisteredbyMODIS.FocusingonthelargeurbancentersofsoutheastBrazil(SãoPaulo,RiodeJaneiro,BeloHorizonteandVitória),bothsimulationsreproducetheLSTannualcycleinagreementwithMODIS.ThegreatestsimilarityinLSTvalues between RegCM andMODIS occurs in the coastal regions (Rio de Janeiro and Vitória). Forexample,inRiodeJaneirotheLSTmeanannualbiasis0.9oC(-0.6oC)inRegCLM(RegBATS).InSãoPaulo,RegCLM(biasof0.6oC)isclosertotheMODIS,whileinBeloHorizontesmallerbiasisfoundinRegBATS(biasof-0.4oC).Thebiasesovertheseurbancentersarerelativelysmallsincetheyarelessthan±1oC.

Keywords: land surface temperature, RegCM,MODIS


B1-P-12

ProjectedtrendsofprecipitationregimeinUkraineduringtheperiodof2020-2050

InnaSemenova,OdessaStateEnvironmentalUniversity,Ukraine

TheprojectedspatiotemporaldistributionofprecipitationindifferentregionsofUkraineundertheclimatescenarioRCP8.5wasdefined.ThedataoftheregionalclimatemodellingprojectCORDEXEUR-44havebeenusedforconstructiontimeseriesofprojectedprecipitation.FortheSteppeandForest-Steppeareas,trendsofprojectedclimateextremeindicesforprecipitationwereassessed.

The analysis showed that the projected amount of summer precipitation will decrease over theterritory of Ukraine, but unevenly in different decades. In the period of 2020-2030 precipitationamount will not change in the northern, central and western regions, but in the Crimea and theCarpathians will decrease by 17% and 38% respectively. In the southern and eastern regionsprecipitationamountwillincreaseby17-25%.Duringtheperiodof2030-2040projectedprecipitationamountwilldecreaseby7–46%throughoutthecountry,exceptforthewesternregions. Indecade2040-2050anincreaseinprecipitationby13-15%isexpectedinthenorthernandcentralpartsandintheCrimea.Intheotherregionstheamountofprecipitationwilldecreaseby5-38%.

TheanalysisoftimeseriesoftheALTCDDindexshownthatthenumberofdrydaysinallareaswillincreaseandreachupamaximumin2044-2045.Duringthisperiod,isprojectedfrom30drydaysinForest-Steppeto51drydaysinthesouthernSteppe.

AccordingtoprojectedtrendsoftheSDIIindextheprecipitationintensitywillweaklyincreaseinallregions.Thehighestintensityupto5mm/daywillexpectedinthenorthernForest-Steppeattheendof2040s,whenthegeneraldecreaseofprecipitationsumsisexpected.

TheanalisysoftimeseriesoftheR95pTOTindexshowedthattheamountofextremeprecipitationwill increase during the study period. A maximum amount is projected in the central and south-westernStepperegions,whereitrangefrom115mm/yearin2020sto150mm/yearin2038–2039.

Keywords: climate scenario, precipitation regime, climate extreme index


B1-P-13

ClimaticimpactoverSouthAmericacausedbytheAmazondeforestationduringdistinctPacificDecadalOscillationphases

MariaElisaSilva,FFLCHUSP,Brazil

MariaElisaSilva,GabrielPereira,RosmeriRocha,AndréMedeiros,USP,Brazil;DanielMendes,USP,Brazil

Numerical simulations indicate specific changes in the precipitation patterns, mainly during thesummerperiod,overSouthAmericaduetodeforestationscenariosofAmazonianforest:precipitationdecreaseoveradjacentanddeforestedareas,and,ontheotherhand,precipitationincreaseovertheeasternSouthAmericasector.Diagnosticstudiesindicateadipole-likeprecipitationpatternovertheeastern side of South America during the positive and negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO,phases.InthisstudyweverifiedtheabilityoftheregionalclimaticmodelRegCMnewversion,RegCM4,in simulate the climatic variability on the decadal scale over South America, from 1970 to 2003..Additionally,wesoughttoevaluatetheclimaticimpactoverSouthAmericaduetotheextrapolatedAmazondeforestationfortheyear2050,forthedistinctPDOphases.TheRegCM4modelwasabletorepresent theprecipitationdipolepatternobservedoverSouthAmerica for thethreePDOphases,althoughthedipolepatternisdisplacedsouthwardthantheobtainedwiththeNCEP-NCARreanalysisIprecipitation.ThedeforestationexperimentusingextrapolatedAmazonlanduseprovidedastrongerincrease of air temperature and precipitation over South America on the positive PDO phase ifcomparedwiththenegativePDOphases.Thenextstepswillallowquantifyingtheclimatic impactsduringElNiñoeventsoccurredonthedistinctPDOphases.

Keywords: Amazon deforestation, regional model RegCM4, decadal variability


B1-P-14

AnanalysisofextremerainfalleventsovertheHimalayanregionusingcoupledmodels

CharuSingh,IIRS,India

CharuSingh,SanjeevKumarSingh,SantoshVishwakarma,IIRS,India

North-WestHimalayan(NWH)regioninIndianishighlyvulnerabletoextremerainfallevents.Duetointricatetopography,theobservationalnetworkissparseinthisregion.Owingtothelimitationswiththesatellitederivedrainfalldatasetsoverthemountainousregion,itposesseveralchallengestothescientificcommunitytoanalyseandmonitortheheavyrainfallevents.Inaclimatechangesscenario,asubstantialincreaseofheavyrainfalleventsovertheNWHregionisanticipated(Menonetal.,2013;Bhartietal.,2016andreferencestherein).Therefore,itbecomesessentialtoimproveforecastingskillsof the regional models to minimise the disastrous impact of the extreme rainfall events on thelivelihood of the region, however due to the availability of limited observational data sets, acomprehensive evaluation of themodel derived rainfall forecastmay not be carried out. Regionalmodelsthoseparticipated intheCORDEXprojectusestheboundaryconditionsderivedbycoupledclimateCMIP5models.Hence,itisalsoimperativetoassessthecoupledclimatemodelsinestimatingtheheavyrainfalleventsovertheNWHregion.Inthepresentstudy4CMIP5modelsareutilisedforanalysingtheextremerainfalleventsforvariousfuturewarmingscenarios(i.e.representativefuturewarmingscenarios:RCPs)forpresentyearsandtowardstheendofthe21stcentury.PresentanalysissuggestsasubstantialchangeintheextremerainfalleventsdistributionovertheNWHregionunderthewarmestfuturewarmingscenarioRCP8.5.

Keywords: North-west Himalayan region, extreme rainfall events, regional model, RCP 8.5


B1-P-15

InstitutionalizationofClimateAdaptationPractices:ACaseStudyofPlannedcityofChandigarh,India

ManojKumarTeotia,CRRID,India

Citiesseemtobeveryvulnerabletodisastersandclimaterelatedrisksoccurringmorefrequentlyinrecent past. The potential risks of disasters are putting pressure on city governments for devisingknowledge based innovative tools to cope with the emerging challenges. Chandigarh, the mostattractiveplannedcityinNorthwesternIndiahasinitiatedveryremarkableandparticipatoryinitiativesforimprovingenvironmentalconditionsinpoorneighborhoodsandinstitutionalizeclimateadaptationpractices. The major climate friendly initiatives of the city are introduction of Garbage Bin FreeScheme,SahejSafaiKendras(EasySanitationCentres),ScientificLandfillofWaste,SettingupofWastetoEnergyPlant,revitalizationofgreenbelts,parksandroundabouts,optingforenergysavingstreetlights, augmentation of secondary and tertiary treatment of liquid waste, SCADA for watermanagement, constructionofdedicatedbicycle lanes, switchover toCNG/LPGbasedautomobiles,modernization of fire services and a very important initiative of making solar energy systemscompulsory in the largerhousingunits. institutions andofficesetc. The resultsof the initiatives inChandigarhhavebeenremarkable.Thecityhasbeenadoptedasamodelcityforthesolarenergyandithasbeenmovingveryfastinmakingcitya‘solarcity’.Ithasalsobeenadjudgedthegreenestcityinthe country. Chandigarh has received awards for providing quality sanitation in 2010, bestperformanceawardforprovidingwatersupply,wastewatermanagementanddrainagein2008,anawardforincreasingforestandtreecoverin2010andsixawardone-governanceduringlastfiveyears.ThepaperbasedonsomestudiesbytheauthorisanefforttodescribetheinitiativesofChandigarhtowardsinstitutionalizationofclimateadaptationpractices.

Keywords: Institutionalization , Climate Adaptation


B1-P-16

CharacterizationofairandsurfacetemperaturecouplingovertheTibetanPlateau:Resultsfrommulti-sourcereanalyses

XuejiaWang,1.StateKeyLaboratoryofCryosphericScience,NorthwestInstituteofEco-EnvironmentandResources,ChineseAcademyofSciences,China;2.ReginalClimateGroup,DepartmentofEarth

Sciences,UniversityofGothenburg,Sweden

XuejiaWang,1.StateKeyLaboratoryofCryosphericScience,NorthwestInstituteofEco-EnvironmentandResources,ChineseAcademyofSciences,China;2.ReginalClimateGroup,DepartmentofEarthSciences,UniversityofGothenburg,Sweden;DeliangChen,ReginalClimateGroup,Departmentof

EarthSciences,UniversityofGothenburg,Sweden

TibetanPlateau(TP),knownasEarth’s“ThirdPole”,exertsatremendousinfluenceonregionalandevenglobalweatherandclimatesystemsthroughitsmechanicalandthermal-dynamicalforcing.Land-atmosphereinteractionsarekeypartsofEarthclimatesystems.Near-surfaceairtemperature(Ta)andsurfacetemperature(Ts),twocrucialparametersofland-atmosphereinteractionsandclimatechange,bothexhibitsignificant increasingtrendsontheTP,howeverwithdiversemagnitudes.Yet it isstillunclearwhetherandhowthetwovariablescouplewitheachotheralongwiththeirinvolvedphysicalprocesses.Inthisregard,thisstudyattemptstoanalyzethevariationcharacteristicsoftwoindividualvariablesatseasonalandinter-annualscalesanddetectthedistributionsandtrendsoftheircontrast(Ts-Ta)usingfourlatestreanalysisdatasetsECMWFfamily(ERA-InterimandERA5),MERRA2,andJRA-55, together with gridded observations. Possible forcing mechanisms are explored and discussedfurthermore.Thepresent findingswillprovide insight into regionalclimatemodeling improvementandadvancestudyofland-atmosphereinteractionsovertheTP.

Keywords: Tibetan Plateau, Air temperature, Surface temperature, Temperature contrast, Reanalysis dataset


B1-P-17

AssessmentoftheUncertaintiesofOptionsintheNoah-MPLandSurfaceModelSimulationsoverChina

YanYan,SchoolofAtmosphericSciences,NanjingUniversity,China

YanYan,JianpingTang,SchoolofAtmosphericSciences,NanjingUniversity,China

Theinteractionsbetweentheatmosphereandthelandsurfaceisbelievedtohavesignificantimpactson the climate change. Land surface influences both regional climate andmesoscale atmospherethroughexchanges inheat,waterandmomentumwith theatmosphere.Themainpurposeof thisstudyistoassesstheimpactoftheNoah-MPlandsurfacemodeloptionsonregionalclimatesimulationoverChina.Therefore,wehaveperformed4groupsofsimulationsduringsummerandwinterseasonsof2007andof2015withtheWRFmodelcoupledwiththeNoah-MPlandsurfacemodel.Eachgroupcontains5experiments:NOAHMP,ALBwith theBATSsnowsurfacealbedoscheme,BTRwithCLMstomatal sesistance schemeusingmatric potentials as fuction of soil type,DVEG allowing annualyconstant vegetation fraction and time-varing LAI and SAI from lookup tables, ROUOFF adopting asimplegroundwaterparameterizationbasedontheTOPMODELrunoffscheme.Fromthecomparisonofthemeandistributionbetweenobservationandexperiments,highCORRsandrelativelylowRMSEsaredetectedforthetemperature.Duringsummersin2007andin2015,warmbiasesaregenerallyfoundinthenorth,whilecoldinthesouth.Theexperimentsalsounderestimatewintertemeperatureingeneral.However,relativelowCORRsforprecipitationwithlargerRMSEs(wetbiases)arefoundinsummer. For the inraseasonal variations, the comparisonsbetween theNOAHMPandobservationshowhighCORRsandlowRMSEsforthemeansurfaceairtemperatureinsummerandrelativelargeRMSEsinwinter.Forprecipitation,theWRFmodelshowsrelativelypoorperformanceinintraseasonalvariability with low correlations and large RMSEs especially in summer. The intercomparisons ofexperimentswillbedicussedinthefuture.

Keywords: Noah-MP,options


B1-P-18

ImpactofEquatorialandNorthernBayofBengalSST'sontheIndiansummermonsoonrainfall

JohnsonZachariah,CochinUniversityofScienceandTechnology,India

JohnsonZachariah,C.ABabu,CochinUniversityofScienceandTechnology,India;HamzaVarikoden,InsdianInstituteofTropicalMeteorology,India

The influenceofEastequatorial IndianOceanand thenorthernBayofBengalSST'son the rainfallpattern over monsoon core zone during Indian summer monsoon is investigated. During Indiansummermonsoon,rainfallovermonsooncorezoneandtheSSTattheEastequatorialIndianOceanarenegativelycorrelated,whereasitispositivelycorrelatedwithNorthernBayofBengal.Anewindex,thesummermonsoonSSTindexfromtheSSTdifferencebetweentheEastequatorial IndianOceanand theNorthernBayofBengal regions is formulated. SummermonsoonSST index shows strongcorrespondence with the intraseasonal oscillation of Indian summer monsoon and, rainfall overMonsooncorezonevaries incoherentwiththeincreasing/decreasingperiodsofsummermonsoonSST index. The rising limbof themonsoonHadleycelland theassociatedatmospheric convectionshowsnorth-south shiftingaccording to the increasing/decreasing trendsof summermonsoonSSTindex.ThiscoherentvariationofrainfallovermonsooncorezonewithsummermonsoonSSTindexsuggeststhatSST'satEastequatorialIndianOceanandNorthernBayofBengalareteleconnectedwithMonsooncorezoneandconsequentlymodulatetherainfallpatternoverMonsooncorezone

Keywords: Monsoon core zone, Summer monsoon SST index, Indian Summer monsoon


B2: Ocean-Ice-Atmosphere

ORAL PRESENTATIONS

Parallel Session B: Coupled Models B2: Ocean-Ice-Atmosphere

AdvancingDecadalClimatePredictabilityintheNorthAtlantic

WeiZhang,UniversityofMiami-RSMAS,UnitedStates

WeiZhang,BenKirtman,UniversityofMiami-RSMAS,UnitedStates

TheEarth’sclimateisfundamentallychaoticandhighlysensitivetoinitialconditions,whichimposeslimitsonthepredictionoftheclimatesystem.Overthelastseveraldecades,greatprogresshasbeenmadeinseasonalclimatepredictionwiththesteadyevolutionofclimatemodeling,buthowtomakerobustdecadalpredictionremainsachallengeintheclimatecommunity.Inthisstudy,weperformasuiteofcoupledclimatemodelsimulationsandexperimentstoestimatedecadalclimatevariabilityand predictability in the North Atlantic. The aim is to diagnose the mechanisms behind decadalpredictability and to further advance the near-term climate prediction in the North Atlantic.Simulations with the interactive ensemble coupling strategy is applied to reduce the internalatmosphericnoiseattheair-seainterface,allowinganassessmentofhownoiseaffectspredictability.We also compare simulations of eddy-parameterized (1°x1°) and eddy-resolved (0.1°x0.1°) oceancomponent models, the purpose of which is to investigate the role of resolvedmesoscale oceanfeaturesinvariability,predictabilityandair-seainteractionsatdecadaltimescales.Theresultsshowthatwithresolvededdiesandmesoscale features,weobtainmorerealisticestimatesof theNorthAtlantic decadal variability and predictability that are more consistent with the observationalestimates.Theinteractiveensemblecansignificantlyreducedecadalvariabilitybutcaneitherincreaseor decrease decadal predictability depending on the locations, as discussed from the Hasselmannframework.Applyingthe interactiveensemblecanfurtheramplify theroleof themesoscaleoceanfeaturesespeciallyinoceaneddyrichregions,andadvanceourunderstandingofthedecadalclimatepredictabilityintheNorthAtlantic.

Keywords: Coupled Model, Decadal Predictability, Interactive Ensemble


ChangesintropicalcyclonesandtheirassociatedprecipitationoverNorthandCentralAmericafromasetofRCAsimulationsundertheRCP8.5scenario

RamónFuentes-Franco,RossbyCentre,SMHI,Sweden

RamónFuentes-Franco,ErikKjellström,RossbyCentre,SMHI,Sweden

Weevaluate the spatial representation, intensity and duration of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) over theCentralAmericaandMexico(CAM)CORDEXdomainonasetofsimulationsperformedwiththeRossbyCentreAtmospheric(RCA)modelforcedby10CMIP5GeneralCirculationModels. Aprocess-basedevaluationrelevantfortropicalcyclonesispresented,highlightingthefeaturesthatallowthemodeltohaveagoodrepresentationofthespatialdistributionofTcs,likeSST,windshear,etc.Wealsoassesstheskillofthedifferentsimulationstorepresentthepercentageoftotalprecipitationthatisduetotropicalcycloneswithinthedomain.OurresultsshowthattheRCAensembleshowsanoverestimationof TCsover theNorthAtlantic, andanunderestimationover theEasternTropical Pacific. TheTCs-associated precipitation is comparable with observations, especially on those showing goodrepresentationofTCsspatialdistribution.

ForthefutureperiodundertheRCP8.5pathway,theRCAensembleshowsadecreaseofprecipitationoverMexicoandCentralAmerica,which is robustacrossensemblemembers (8/10).ThisdecreaseappearstobeduetoamoreintenseeasterlywindsovertheCaribbeanandthereforeanincreasedverticalwindshear.

ThedensityofTCs in the futureshowachangetowardsahigherconcentrationtowards theNorthsubtropicalAtlanticocean,andadecreaseovertheTropicalAtlantic.SimilarlyitisfoundahigherTCconcentration away from theMexican coasts and a decrease of TC concentration close to coastalregions.

AlthoughthetotalprecipitationshowsadecreaseallalongMexico,theTCs-associatedprecipitationshows an increase (almost double the amount of the historical period) over Northwest Mexico,especiallyover theGulfofCalifornia, increasing thecontributionofTCs-associatedprecipitation tototalprecipitationoverthatregion.

Keywords: Tropical cyclones, North and Central America, RCP8.5


AssessingthewatercycleintheMED-CORDEXsimulationsoftheIPSLregionalEarthsystemmodel

JanPolcher,LMD/IPSL,France

JanPolcher,RomainPennel,ThomasArsouze,LMD/IPSL,France;SophieBastin,LATMOS/IPSL,France;LluisFita,CIMA,Argentina;AntoineGuion,SolèneTurquety,LMD/IPSL,France

The regional Earth systemmodel of the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (RegIPSL) couples theWRFatmospheric model, the ORCHIDEE land surface model and the NEMO ocean model. It has beenconfiguredfortheMediterraneanregionfollowingtheMED-CORDEXprotocolwithanatmosphericresolutionofabout20kmandoceanresolutionof6-8km.Inthismodel,thewatercycleisfullycoupledas the river flows simulated byORCHIDEE are provided to the estuaries in NEMO. The only openboundariesareintheatmosphere,thestraightofGibraltarandtheNileriver.FurthermoreORCHIDEEisrunwithafullyinteractivevegetationwhichallowstorepresentonthecontinentsthefeedbacksbetweenthewatercycleandtheplantdevelopment,acriticalaspectofthesemi-aridclimateoftheMediterranean.Forthisstudywewill focusonthe37yearhindcastwhichcoverstheperiod1979-2016andallows tosamplesomeof thestrongestdroughtsobservedduring thepastdecades.Themodel was executed either coupled to the ocean or forced with the sea surface temperature toevaluatetheroleoffeedbacks.

TheproposedanalysisfocusesonthewatercyclesimulatedbyRegIPSL.InrecentyearsadebatehasbeenongoingontheamountoffreshwaterwhichflowsfromthecontinentsintotheMediterraneanseaandhowmuchisexchangedwiththeAtlanticthroughthestraightofGibraltar.Wewillshowwherethemodelstandsintheproposedrangeofvaluesandhowfarthesystematicbiasesofthemodelcanexplainthediscrepancywiththevariousobservationalbasedestimates.Theinter-annualvariabilityofthesefluxeswillbeanalyzedwithaparticularfocusonthecontributionofthecouplingtotheoceananddynamicalvegetationtotheextremeswhicharereproducedbythemodel.

Keywords: Regiona Earth System model, Water cycle


InfluenceofCumulusConvectionSchemesonWinterNorthPacificStormTracksintheRegionalClimateModelRegCM4.5

MinghaoYang,NationalUniversityofDefenseTechnology,China

MinghaoYang,NationalUniversityofDefenseTechnology,China;YankeTan,FudanUniversity,China;XinLi,NationalUniversityofDefenseTechnology,China;XiongChen,NationalUniversityofDefenseTechnology,China;ChaoZhang,NationalUniversityofDefenseTechnology,China;Peilong

Yu,NationalUniversityofDefenseTechnology

Thesimulationabilityoftheregionalclimatemodelitselfandthechoiceoftheparameterizedschemeconfigurationofvariousphysicalprocessesareparticularlyimportant.Basedontheregionalclimatemodel RegCM4.5 driven by National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis, theinfluenceofcumulusconvectionschemes(CCSs)onthewinterNorthPacificstormtrack(WNPST)isinvestigated.Itisfoundthattheclimatology,interannualvariation,spatialmodesandcharacteristicindicesoftheWNPSTareextremelysensitivetothechoiceofCCS.AmongtheselectedCCSs,WNPSTclimatologyandinterannualvariationintheKuoschemearebetterthaninotherCCSs,withasmallerrootmeansquareerror(RMSE).TheWNPSTspatialmodesandstrengthindicesintheKuoandGrellschemesaremoreconsistentwithNCEPreanalysis.TheKuoschemehasastrongerabilitytosimulatetheWNPSTlatitudeindexandtheinterannualvariationofwintercharacteristicindices.Inaddition,weattempttorevealthepossiblereasonsforthedifferentperformancesofCCSsfromtheviewpointofbaroclinicenergyconversion(BCEC).Itisfoundthattheenergyconversionfromthemeanavailablepotentialenergytotheeddyavailablepotentialenergy(BCEC1)hasnosignificantdifferenceamongtheKuo,GrellandEmanualschemes,whileenergyconversionfromtheeddyavailablepotentialenergytoeddykineticenergy(BCEC2)intheKuoschemeisobviouslybetterthanotherCCSs,whichmeansthatthedifferencesinBCEC2amongtheseCCSsmaybeoneofthekeyreasonsaffectingthesimulationresultsoftheWNPST.

Keywords: cumulus convection scheme,regional climate model,storm track,interannual variation,baroclinic energy conversion


SpatiotemporalvariabilitycharacteristicsofIndianSummerMonsoonRainfallinthetwenty-firstcentury-aregionalocean-atmospherecoupledclimate

modelperspective

PankajKumar,IndianInstituteofScienceEducationandResearchBhopal,India

PankajKumar,NavajyothMP,IndianInstituteofScienceEducationandResearchBhopal,India

Aweakeningoftheland-oceantemperaturecontrasthadbeencausingadeclineintheISMrainfallinthelatterhalfofthetwentiethcentury.However,sincethestartofthecurrentcentury,thisgradienthasbeenknowntobeontheriseagainduetothewarmingoftheland.Inthisstudy,changesintheinterannual to the intraseasonal variability of ISM rainfall have been explored in such a warmingscenario.Arecordedincrementinrainfallfollowingaland-warmingtrend,however,doesnotensureuniformspatiotemporalincreases.Temporally,asignificantriseintheSeptemberrainfallandspatially,rainfall increments in the southern and north-western regions of India act as the influentialcontributorsoftherainfallintensificationsinrecentyears.Spatialvariabilityofrainfallincreaseswithanincreaseinrainfallmagnitudesduetoasurgeintheheavyrainfallcontributiontotheseasonalsum.A land-warming induced development of a region of ascent over the northern Indian latitudesaccompanied by a weakening of dry air subsidence over these latitudes strengthen the HadleycirculationoverthemonsoonsectorwhichinturnincreasestherainfallassociatedwithISM.

A regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model within the CORDEX framework has been used withreanalysisforcingoversouthAsiaandtheresultsprovethatthemodelperformsverywellinreplicatingtheregionalvariabilityofISMrainfallinresponsetoland-oceantemperaturecontrastchanges.Asetupofthesorthasthepotentialtoassessfuturechangesintheair-seainteractionsandthesubsequentrepercussionsinISMrainfallvariability.

Keywords: Coupled Ooean-Atmosphere Modelling, Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall


Coupledlong-termwavesimulationsbasedonRegionalEarthSystemModelovertheMediterraneansea

FuldenBatibeniz,AeronauticsandAstronauticsFaculty,MeteorologicalEngineering,IstanbulTechnicalUniversity,Istanbul,Turkey

FuldenBatibeniz,AeronauticsandAstronauticsFaculty,MeteorologicalEngineering,IstanbulTechnicalUniversity,Istanbul,Turkey;BarisOnol,AeronauticsandAstronauticsFaculty,

MeteorologicalEngineering,IstanbulTechnicalUniversity,Istanbul,Turkey;UfukUtkuTuruncoglu,NationalCenterforAtmosphericResearch,Boulder,CO,USA

We investigate wave climatology over the Mediterranean Basin using reanalysis/observations(ECMWF’sERA5andMyOCEAN)andcoupledRegionalEarthSystemModel (RegESM).TheRegESMmodelisrunincoupled(RegCM4coupledwithROMSandWAM)anduncoupledmode(atmosphere–land only) for 1979-2017 period driven by Era-Interim Reanalysis over the Med-CORDEX domainprescribedundertheCORDEXframework.Additionally,thestandalonesimulationofthewavemodel(WAM)hasbeenforcedbytheRegCMwindfield(12kmhorizontalresolution)fortheMediterraneanSea.WecomparedsimulatedmeanSWH(SignificantWaveHeight)resultswithboththeMyOCEANgagedata (SKYRO,61277,KALAM,LESVOandMYKON) in temporalscaleandERA5 inspatial scale.Comparisons show that temporal variability of the mean SWH is highly consistent with theobservationsandspatialdistributionofthemeanSWHisverywellcaptured.Moreover,wecomparethree model configurations to investigate the role of air-sea interaction in the simulation of keyprocessesthatgovernwaveclimatevariabilityoverthestudyarea.Ourresultsrevealsthattherecentlydevelopedmodeling system RegESM incorporates atmosphere, ocean and wave components andthereby is better capable to improve the understanding of coupled climate system processes. Inaddition to that, results highlight the importance of atmosphere-ocean-wave coupling in accuraterepresentationofphysicalprocessesthatinfluencewaveclimatologyatseasonaltimescaleovertheMediterraneanregion.

Keywords: Regional Earth System model, Med-CORDEX, CORDEX, Wave climatology


Impactofregionalair-seacouplingonthesimulationoftheIberianPeninsulacurrentclimate

DimtrySein,AlfredWegenerInstituteforPolarandMarineResearch,Bremerhaven,Germany

AlbadelaVara,EnvironmentalSciencesInstitute,UniversityofCastilla-LaMancha,Toledo,Spain;WilliamCabos,DepartmentofPhysics,UniversityofAlcalá,AlcaládeHenares,Madrid,Spain;Dmitry

Sein,AlfredWegenerInstituteforPolarandMarineResearch,Bremerhaven,Germany;EnriqueSánchez,EnvironmentalSciencesInstitute,UniversityofCastilla-LaMancha,Toledo,Spain;Ignacio

Pérez,DepartmentofPhysics,UniversityofAlcalá,AlcaládeHenares,Madrid,Spain

The climate of the Iberian Peninsula (IP) is characterized by great temporal and spatial variability.Changes in the position and intensity of the Azores High cause air masses of different origins toinfluencetheweatheroverWesternEurope,andhence,ontheIP,atregionalandlocalscales.Theinteractionofthisvarietyofairmasseswithaparticularlycomplextopographyandtheexistingland-seacontrastsproducesarangeofdifferentiatedregionalclimates.Moreover,theIberianclimate isalsoinfluencedbythelarge-scaleNorthAtlanticoceancirculation,especiallybytheGulfStreamandthe North Atlantic Current. In this context, the use of high-resolution atmosphere-ocean coupledmodels(AOGCMs)ispotentiallynecessarytoachieveacorrectrepresentationoftheIPclimateanditsvariability.However,currentoceanicandatmosphericcomponentsofstate-of-the-artglobalAOGCMsgenerallyhavearesolutionwhichistoocoarsetorepresentadequatelythecirculationpatternsoftheNorthAtlantic,akeyregionforglobalclimate.

Theaimofthisstudyistoexaminetheroleofair-seacouplingprocessesintherepresentationofthepresent-dayclimateoftheIberianPeninsula.Tothatend,weperformaseriesofocean-atmospherecoupled and atmosphere-only simulations that expand from1980 to 2012.We adopt the regionalatmosphericmodelREMO(Jacob,2001)andtheregionally-coupledmodelROM(Seinetal.2015).Inourexperiments,theatmosphericmodelisrunwithahorizontalresolutionof25km.Thehorizontalresolutionof theoceanmodel reachesup to10km (eddypermitting)within the IPanddecreasesgradually, reaching a minimum of 100 km in the southern seas. Outside the coupled domain,simulationsaredrivenbyERA-Interimreanalysis,withahorizontalresolutionof75km.Additionally,the role of forcing resolution in the representation of the climate of the IP is assessed by theexaminationofaseriesofsimulationsforcedwithdatafromMPI-ESM(Giorgettaetal.2013).TheMPI-ESMRCP85simulationusedasboundaryconditionshasT63(c.a.1.9°),47levelsintheatmosphere,1.5°resolution(neartheequator)and40verticalz-levelsintheocean.Ourresultsshowthatair-seacoupling magnifies winter temperature and precipitation errors relative to the E-OBS griddedobservationaldatabaseduetodrawbacksintherepresentationoftheNorthAtlanticoceancirculation.However, insummer,when large-scalecirculationpatternsonly influence the IPclimate toasmallextent,air-seainteractionsreducebiases.Inthisseason,theinfluenceoftheMediterraneanSeaplaysaroleintheimprovementsobserved.

References:

1. Giorgetta,M.A.,Jungclaus,J.,Reick,C.H.,Legutke,S.,Bader,J.,Böttinger,M.,Brovkin,V.,Crueger,T.,Esch,M.,Fieg,K.,Glushak,K.,Gayler,V.,Haak,H.,Hollweg,H.-D., Ilyina,T.,Kinne,S.,Kornblueh,L.,Matei,D.,Mauritsen,T.,Mikolajewicz,U.,Mueller,W.,Notz,D.,Pithan,F.,Raddatz,T.,Rast,S.,Redler,R., Roeckner, E., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Segschneider, J., Six, K. D., Stockhause,M., Timmreck, C.,

Wegner, J.,Widmann,H.,Wieners,K.-H.,Claussen,M.,Marotzke, J., Stevens,B. (2013)Climateandcarbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI-ESM simulations for the Coupled ModelIntercomparisonProjectphase5.J.Adv.Model.EarthSy.,5,572–597,doi:10.1002/jame.20038,2013.

2. Jacob,D.(2001)Anotetothesimulationoftheannualandinterannualvariabilityofthewaterbudgetover the Baltic Sea drainage basin. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 77 (1-4), 61-73, doi:10.1007/s007030170017.

3. Sein,D.V.,Mikolajewicz,U.,Gröger,M.,Fast, I.,Cabos,W.,Pinto, J.G.,Hagemann,S.,Semmler,T.,Izquierdo,A.,Jacob,D.(2015)Regionallycoupledatmosphere-ocean-seaice-marinebiogeochemistrymodel ROM: 1. Description and validation. J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 7, 268–304, doi:10.1002/2014MS000357.

Keywords: Regional air-sea coupling, Atmospheric circulation, Ocean circulation, Climate of the Iberian Peninsula


Performanceofahighresolutionregionalocean-atmospherecoupledmodeloverwesternNorthPacificregion:Sensitivitytocumulusparameterizations

LiweiZou,InstituteofAtmosphericPhysics,ChineseAcademyofSciences,China

Wedevelopedahigh-resolutionregionalocean-atmospherecoupledmodel,basedonRegCM4andaNorthPacificOceanmodel,throughtheOASIS3coupler.Thehorizontalresolutionoftheatmosphericcomponent(oceaniccomponent)wassetto15km(0.1°).WiththemotivationtocustomizethemodeloverwesternNorthPacific(WNP)region,thesensitivitytothreecumulusparameterizationschemes(MIT-Emanuel,Tiedtke,Kain-Fritsch)wasinvestigated.TheresultsindicatedthatasimulationwiththeTiedtke schemeexhibited the relatively best performanceover this region in termsof sea surfacetemperature(SST),rainfall,andcirculation.FiftypercentofthemodelgridshadbiasesofSST(rainfall)within±0.5°C(±2mm/day)overWNP.Inaddition,thesimulationwiththeTiedtkeschemereasonablycapturedtheshapeandmagnitudeofthemonsoontroughrainfall,thenorthwardmovementoftherainbandandtheassociatedcirculationchangesoverWNP.However,theapparentheatsource(Q1)andmoisturesink(Q2)inthesimulationwiththeMIT-Emanuel(Kain-Fritsch)schemewerenearlyhalf(double)thoseoftheobservedmeasurements,especiallyinthelowertroposphereoverthemonsoontrough region. The too weak (too strong) diabatic heating favored a weaker (stronger) ascendingmotion,which led to theunderestimation (overestimation)ofverticalmoistureadvectionover themonsoontrough,thusresultinginevidentdry(wet)biases.OuranalysissuggestedthattheimprovedperformanceusingtheTiedtkeschemecouldbeattributedtotheimprovedsimulatedverticalprofileofdiabaticheating,theinclusionoftheeffectsoflarge-scaleforcinginthecumulusparameterization,andthereasonablesimulatedrelationshipofprecipitationwithlow-levelverticalvelocity.

Keywords: Regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model, monsoon


ImpactofclimatechangeonseasurfacewindspeedovertheSoutheastAsia:resultsfromaRegCM4dynamicaldownscalingofCNRM-CM5inthe

CORDEX-SEAframework.

MarineHermann,LEGOS/IRD,France

MarineHermann,LEGOS/IRD,France;ThanhNgoDuc,USTH/VAST,Vietnam;LongTrinhTuan,USTH/VAST,Vietnam

South East Asia climate system shows a large range of variability scales, from extreme events tointerannualvariability.Understandingitsanswertoclimatechangeisofprimaryscientificandsocio-economicimportance,theIPCC-AR5howeverpointedtheconsiderablelackofknowledgeinregionalclimatechangeanditsimpactinthisregion.Inparticularverylittleisknownabouttheanswerofwindtoclimatechange,thoughitisamajoringredientofoceancirculation.Weinvestigatedtheimpactofclimate change on sea surfacewind speed, examining changes in daily and extreme event scales,interannualvariabilityandclimatologicalaverage.ForthatweusedtheRegCM4regionalatmosphericmodel toperformadynamicaldownscalingofCMIP5simulationsdonewiththeCNRM-CM5globalclimate model. Comparisons with QuikSCAT satellite data show that the downscaled simulationsperformoveral better than the global simulations. Bothmodels produce regionally and seasonallycontrastedresultsintermsofdailywindspeedevolutionbetweentheXXthandXXIstcenturies.Globalsimulationsproducemostlyweakandnonsignificantchanges,onlysuggestingan intensificationofnortheastwintermonsooninthenorthernpartofthedomain.ConverselyregionalsimulationssuggestfromMarch to November in the northern SCS and PAC and in the SEA south equatorial region aweakeningofwindspeedatalltemporalscales,forregionsandperiodsofinitiallystrongwindspeedvalues.Thisdecreaseofdailyvariabilityandextremewindspeedsisassociatedwitha-40%andto-50%decreaseofTCfrequency.

Keywords: CORDEX-SEA, Dynamical downscaling, surface wind, climate change, tropical cyclones


Canocean-atmosphereclimatechangeatthecoastalscalebeachieved?TheexampleoftheAdriaticSea

CleaDenamiel,InstituteofOceanographyandFisheries,Croatia

CleaDenamiel,IvicaVilibić,InstituteofOceanographyandFisheries,Croatia

WiththeaimtostudytheimpactofclimatechangeontheprocessesdrivingtheAdriaticthermohalinecirculation (i.e. Adriatic-Ionian Bimodal Oscillating System, dense water formation, etc.) and itsmanifestationincoastalregions,theultra-highresolution(3-kmfortheatmosphereand1-kmfortheocean)AdriaticSeaandCoast(AdriSC)Climatecomponentwasdeveloped intheframeworkoftheCroatianfundedADIOSproject.Themainchallengesposedbysuchanapproachare(1)therelativeslownessofthemodellingsuite(1monthofsimulationperday),and(2)thelowtemporalandspatialresolutions(onlyfewverticallevelsfordailyormonthlydata)ofthecoupledRegionalClimateModels(RCMs)availabletoprovideboundaryconditionsfortheAdriSCmodels.Inconsequence,theclassicalclimatechangeapproach(consisting in30-yearevaluation,50-yearhistoricaland100-yearscenarioruns)couldnotbeimplementedwithinourstudyandthesurrogateclimatechangeapproachwasusedinstead.Thisapproachwasdevelopedandwelltestedforatmosphericstudiesonly.Itmostlyconsistsin adding a climatologic differential (derived from the difference between scenario and historicalresultsofagivenRCMforagivenperiod)totheforcingofa30-yearhighresolutionevaluationrun.Inthisstudy,wewillpresent(1)theset-upoftheAdriSCClimatecomponentandthefirstresultsoftheevaluation run performed for the 1987-2017 period and (2) the methodology used to adapt thesurrogateclimatechangeapproachtothecoupledocean-atmospheremodel.

Keywords: ocean-atmosphere, coastal scale, Adriatic Sea


B2: Ocean-Ice-Atmosphere



ALIZADEHCHOOBARIOmid ContributionoftheElNiño-SouthernOscillationonthe

strengthanddurationoftheIndiansummermonsoon B2-P-01

CHENLin TheResponseofENSOAsymmetrytoGlobalWarming

B2-P-02

CHENLin CausesoftheAsymmetricSSTAZonalSpatialPattern

betweenStrongElNiñoandLaNiña B2-P-03

CHENLin CauseofENSOperiodsimulationbiasesincoupledmodels

B2-P-04

GAOLAdelina

SimulationofDahliaTropicalCycloneImpactonAtmosphericDynamicandOceaninSundaStraitUsingDELFT-3DModel B2-P-05

LIDelei Anatmosphere-waveregionalcoupledmodelovertheEast

ChinaSea:skillsassessmentofsimulatedwindandwave B2-P-06

MANDAL Shailendra Effectofsealevelriseonmetrocity:lessonsfromurbancoastalcommunitiesfromIndia B2-P-07


B2-P-01

ContributionoftheElNiño-SouthernOscillationonthestrengthanddurationoftheIndiansummermonsoon

OmidAlizadehChoobari,InstituteofGeophysics,UniversityofTehran,Iran

Asaquasi-periodicalnaturalphenomenon,theElNiño-SouthernOscillation(ENSO)isoneofthemaindrivingforcesoftheIndiansummermonsoon.UsingtheEuropeanCentreforMedium-RangeWeatherForecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis Interim (ERA-Interim) data for the period 1979-2016, impacts ofdifferent phases of ENSO on the Indian summermonsoon are investigated, with an emphasis ondifferentresponsesoftheIndiansummermonsoontotheeasternandcentralPacificElNiños.OuranalysisindicatedthatElNiñoandLaNiñaareassociatedwithweakeningandstrengtheningoftheIndian summermonsoon and associatedmoist southwesterlywinds over the Indian subcontinent,respectively.Itisalsofoundthatthereisahigherpossibilityfortheoccurrenceofthepositivephaseofthe IndianOceanDipole(IOD)duringtheeasternPacificElNiño,whichcausescoolerwateranddrierconditionsintheeasternIndianOcean,andwarmerwaterandhigherprecipitationinthewest.TheHadleycirculationalsorespondstodifferentphasesofENSO,suchthatanomaloussubsidenceestablishesovermostpartsoftheIndiansubcontinentduringboththeeasternandcentralPacificElNiños,causingshorterdurationoftheIndiansummermonsoon.TheimpactofthecentralPacificElNiñoontheHadleycirculationisstrongerthanthatoftheeasternPacificElNiño.AstrongcorrelationbetweenseasurfacetemperatureanomaliesinthetropicalPacificOceanandthemid-troposphericgeopotential height anomalies over the Indian subcontinent is identified during the pre-monsoonmonthofApril,withpositiveandnegativegeopotentialheightanomaliesduringElNiñoandLaNiña,respectively.Thisimpliesthatthemid-troposphericgeopotentialheightanomaliesinAprilcanbeusedasanindicatortopredictthestrengthoftheupcomingIndiansummermonsoon.

Keywords: El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Indian summer monsoon, Hadley circulation


B2-P-02

TheresponseofENSOasymmetrytoglobalwarming

LinChen,NanjingUniversityofInformationScienceandTechnology,China

LinChen,YuhanGong,NanjingUniversityofInformationScienceandTechnology,China

HowtheENSOamplitudeasymmetryrespondtoglobalwarming(GW)graduallybecomesahottopic.However,theprojectedchangesinENSOamplitudeunderglobalwarmingaredivergent.Inthiswork,wechoosearepresentativemodel,CCSM4,toexplorethepossiblemechanismsofENSOasymmetrychanges in the future (since theCCSM4exhibits outstandingperformance in representingpositiveENSOskewnessinthepresent-daysimulation,whilethemajorityofcurrenttheCMIP5modelsarestillstrugglingwithsimulatingENSOamplitudeasymmetryreasonably).ThismodelfromNCARsimulatespresent-day’s (PD’s) ENSO skewness reasonably, and it exhibits obviously weakening in ENSOamplitudeasymmetryinfuture.Specifically,theamplitudeofElNiñobecomesweakenedsignificantlyinfuturewhereasthechangeintheamplitudeofLaNiñaisminor,leadingtotheweakeninginENSOamplitude skewness in future. Based on thorough diagnoses,we find the physical reasons for theasymmetricchangesinElNiñoandLaNiñaamplitudesprimarilyarisesfromtheasymmetricchangesinanomalousprecipitationresponsetoSSTA.Theasymmetryintheanomalousprecipitationresponsebetween El Niño and La Niña leads to the asymmetric changes in the zonal wind stress anomalyresponsetoSSTA.ThezonalwindstressanomalyresponseforthewarmeventsbecomesweakerandshowsmarkedlywestwardshiftinGWthanitscounterpartinPD,whilethezonalwindstressanomalyresponseforthecoldeventsonlybecomesslightlystrongerandshowsnoobviouschangesineast-westdistributioninGW.Thiscausestheasymmetricchangesintheoceanicthermoclineresponsetozonal wind stress anomaly between the warm and cold events in GW, with weaker thermoclineresponse for El Niño and changeless thermocline response for La Niña. Consequently, the zonaladvective feedback and thermocline feedback for El Niño is significantly weakened whereas thecounterparts for La Niña show minor changes, leading to the significantly weaker El Niño butchangelessLaNiñainfuture.Thus,theENSOamplitudeexhibitsweakerskewnessinfuture.

Keywords: ENSO asymmetry,asymmetric precipitation response,asymmetric thermocline response


B2-P-03

CausesoftheasymmetricSSTAzonalspatialpatternbetweenstrongElNiñoandLaNiña


LinChen,ZiAnGe,NanjingUniversityofInformationScienceandTechnology,China

Observedseasurfacetemperatureanomaly(SSTA)inequatorialeasternPacificexhibitsanasymmetriczonalspatialpatternbetweenstrongElNiñoandLaNiña:StrongElNiñoeventstendtobelocatedmoreintheeasternPacificwithSSTAcenteraround125˚W,whereasstrongLaNiñaeventstendtobelocatedmore in the centralPacific centeredaround148˚W.So far, thephysicalmechanismof thespatialpatternofstrongElNiño(warmevent)beingeastwardshiftedcomparedwiththatofstrongLaNiña (cold event) is unclear. The physical mechanism of the production and evolution of theasymmetric SSTA zonal spatial pattern between strong ENSO events are investigated throughcompositeanalysis,quantitativediagnosisandnumericalsensitivityexperiments.Wedesignonesetofatmosphericgeneralcirculationmodel(AGCM)experimentswithtwosymmetricSSTAs,whichhaveequal amplitude and same spatial pattern but opposite sign. The result shows that both dynamicfeedback(surfacewindstressanomaly)andthermodynamicfeedback(shortwaveradiationandlatentheatfluxanomaly)duringElNiñoareeastwardshiftedcomparedwiththoseduringLaNiña,whichareforced by two symmetric SSTAs. Further, three sets of oceanic general circulationmodel (OGCM)sensitivityexperimentsareperformedrespectivelywiththesurfacewindstressanomaly,shortwaveradiationheatfluxanomalyandlatentheatfluxanomalyobtainedfromtheAGCMexperimentsabove.ItisconfirmedbytheOGCMexperimentsthatbothasymmetricdynamicfeedbackandthermodynamicfeedbackcontributetothezonalspatialpatternasymmetrybetweenstrongElNiñoandLaNiñaandthesetwofeedbackprocessesareequallysignificant.Thisworkrevealedfor the first timethat theasymmetric SSTA zonal spatial pattern between strong El Niño and LaNiña is caused by both theasymmetric ENSO dynamic process (surface wind stress - SSTA feedback) and asymmetric ENSOthermodynamic process (short wave radiation heat flux - SSTA feedback, latent heat flux - SSTAfeedback).

Keywords: ENSO, Zonal spatial pattern, Asymmetry, Numerical sensitivity experiment


B2-P-04

CauseofENSOperiodsimulationbiasesincoupledmodels


LinChen,MingSun,NanjingUniversityofInformationScienceandTechnology,China

To investigate the causewhich leads to biases of ENSOperiod simulation in coupledmodels, fourinterestingcoupledmodelsareusedtoanalyzetheirENSOperiod.Specifically,thesefourmodelsareconstructedbycross-couplingtheatmosphericcomponentandoceaniccomponentoftwocommonlyused coupledmodels. Basedon the comparisonbetween theENSOperiod in theobservation andmodel simulations, the four parent models are separated into two groups according to theiratmospheric components: Grid-point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG Version 2 (GAMIL2)-basedmodelswhoseENSOperiodareshorterthanobservation,andCommunityAtmosphereModelVersion4.0(CAM4)-basedmodelswhoseENSOamplitudesarelonger.WyrtkiindexanalysisonENSOperiodshowsthatthemeridionalstructureofzonalwindstressisthecriticalfactortodeterminetheperiodsimulationamongthesecoupledmodels.The longerperiod inCAM4-basedmodels isattributedtobroadermeridionalwidthofzonalwindstress,whileashortperiodinGAMIL2-basedmodelsiscausedbythenarrowermeridionalwidth.DifferentpatternsofprecipitationresponsestoENSOintwogroupsofmodelsshowmanyinfluencesontomeridionalstructuresofwindzonalstress.ThebiasofclimatemeanSSTsimulationistherootcausewhichmodulatesthestructuresofprecipitationanomalies,andtheextra-tropicalcentralPacificmaybethekeyregion.

Keywords: Cross-coupled models, Wyrtki index, simulation bias of climate mean state


B2-P-05

SimulationofDahliaTropicalCycloneimpactonatmosphericdynamicandoceaninSundaStraitusingDELFT-3DModel

AdelinaGaol,IndonesiaAgencyofMeteorologyClimatologyandGeophysics,Indonesia

AdelinaGaol,IndonesiaAgencyofMeteorologyClimatologyandGeophysics,Indonesia;AriesKristianto,SchoolofMeteorologyClimatologyandGeophysics,Indonesia;FrantoNovico,MarineGeologicalResearchandDevelopmentCenter,Indonesia;AhmadFadlan,SchoolofMeteorology

ClimatologyandGeophysics,Indonesia

TheDahliaTropicalCycloneoccurredduringtheperiodNovember27thuntilDecember2nd,2017,withincreasingstrengthintheWestIndianOceanneartheBengkuluSea.Altimetrysatellitedatawasusedtodeterminetheconditionofsealevelanomalyandshowedanincreasedsealevelanomalyofabout0.3-0.4meters,butexperiencedalesssignificantchangefromthepreviousconditionscausedbythedistanceofcyclonetrajectorieswhicharequitefarfromtheverificationstationarea.Delft-3Dsimulation modeling was conducted to determine the condition of the ocean and atmosphericdynamicsduringtheDahliaTropicalCyclonephase.Thepeakofthesignificantwaveheightreachedavalueof3.24metersattheCiwandanStationwhichwascausedbywindinductionfromtheDahliatropical cyclone. The peak of swell height reached a value of 3.0 meters with the direction ofpropagationtowardstheSundaStrait.AutomaticweathersystemdatashowsthatwinddirectionismostlyfromtheSouthwestwithspeedsreaching11-17knotsduringDahliaTropicalCyclone.Thestudypresented here proves the important rule of wind induction on swell propagation from tropicalcycloneswhichcausesmaximumsignificantwaveheightsandsealevelanomalies.TheDelft-3Dmodelresults compare favorable with observations from the Geospatial Information Agency revealing astrong correlation of 0.86 indicating that the Delft-3D model in this case provides trustworthypredictions.

Keywords: Delft-3D, sea level anomaly, tropical cyclone


B2-P-06

Anatmosphere-waveregionalcoupledmodelovertheEastChinaSea:Skillsassessmentofsimulatedwindandwave

DeleiLi,InstituteofOceanology,ChineseAcademyofSciences,China

DeleiLi,InstituteofOceanology,ChineseAcademyofSciences,China;JoannaStaneva,SebastianGrayek,ArnoBehrens,InstituteofCoastalResearch,HelmholtzZentrumGeesthacht,Geesthacht,

Germany;BaoshuYin,InstituteofOceanology,ChineseAcademyofSciences,China

The coupling of models is a commonly used approach when addressing the complex interactionsbetweendifferentEarthSystemcomponents.Thisstudyfocusesinthenon-linearinteractionbetweenthe waves and atmosphere models. Several sensitivity experiments have been performed toinvestigatetheimpactofatmosphere-wavecouplingonthesimulatedwindandwaveovertheEastChina Sea. These experiments include stand-alone regional atmospheremodel (CCLM) simulation,stand-alonespectralwavemodel(WAM)simulationsdrivenbytheregionalatmospheremodelCCLMorERA5 reanalysiswind,and two-way (CCLM-WAM)coupled simulations. The two-waycoupling isdone interactively usingOASIS3-MCT libraries. The frequency of the exchangebetweenCCLMandWAMissetto6minutesforthecoupledrun.Wecomparedthesimulatedwindspeedandsignificantwaveheightagainstin-situandremotesensingdatafor2010.ResultsshowthatthecoupledmodelcanbebetterincapturingthesignificantwaveheightduringtyphooneventsthanERA5.Consideringthewave-induced stress led to improving themodel skills duringextremes, especially in thenear-coastal areas. The validations of wind speed/significantwave height against satellite observationsshowedthatthetwo-waymodeloutperforms/underperformsboththestand-aloneCCLM/WAMandERA5reanalyses.Ontheotherhand,acomparisonwithwavebuoyobservationsinthecoastalareasdemonstrates improvement of the two-way simulations in respect to stand-alonemodel or ERA-5reanalyses.High-horizontal-resolutioncoupledmodelintensifiesthesimulationofstormscomparedtoERA-5re-analyses.Wedemonstratethedifferencesbetweenthedifferentexperimentsincapturingthesurfacepressure,windspeed,roughnesslengthfieldandverticalprofiles(temperature,pressureandwindspeed)tofindouttheinteractionmechanismbetweenatmosphereandwave.

Keywords: East China Sea, Atmosphere-wave coupling, CCLM, WAM


B2-P-07

Effectofsealevelriseonmetrocity:lessonsfromurbancoastalcommunitiesfromIndia

ShailendraMandal,NationalInstituteofTechnologyPatna,India

ShailendraMandal,NationalInstituteofTechnologyPatna,India;SupriyaRani,PatnaUniversity,Patna,India

Societies have lived with the vibrant nature of land and coastal environments for ages. Vulnerability of coastal areas to climate change is an important issue, which has gained attention recently. Faced with rising sea levels and the likelihood of increasing storminess, coastal communities are on the front line of climate change impacts. Coastal areas face multiple risks and stresses related to climate change and variability. Impacts of sea level rise are expected to have predominantly adverse effects on natural and human systems. Coastal communities are highly vulnerable to climate change impacts, mainly because of three main reasons, high resource dependency, high exposure and limited adaptive capacity. This raises concerns about coastal community’s sustainability. India has a 7,517 km long coastline with many low-lying and densely populated areas with nearly 260 million people living within 50 km of the seacoast. These highly vulnerable areas house a network of infrastructures. It is highly pertinent to start climate adaptive infrastructure and services, given the climate sensitive nature of the existing infrastructure systems in the coastal area. It could be maintained and managed in such a way that it is prepared to withstand sea level changes impacts.

This paper discusses on approaches that can increase resilience of infrastructure and the services in coastal urban areas of developing nations. It also highlights the Identification of vulnerable hot spots in the coastal areas, recommendations for climate proofing infrastructure and services and methodology for vulnerability assessment of coastal communities to climate variability and sea-level changes. It also recommends appropriate policy and institutional reform, capacity building and improved knowledge management towards increasing the resilience and adaptive capacity of these coastal communities to current and future sea level changes.

Keywords: Climate change,Sea level rise,Coastal communities,Vulnerability mapping,Climate adaptive infrastructure


B3: Biogeochemical processes

ORAL PRESENTATIONS

Parallel Session B: Coupled Models B3: Biogeochemical processes

ClimateimplicationsofaerosolinducedsnowdarkeningoverHimalayas

VijayakumarSNair,SpacePhysicsLaboratory,VikramSarabhaiSpaceCentre,India

VijayakumarSNair,KHUsha,SSureshBabu,SpacePhysicsLaboratory,VikramSarabhaiSpaceCentre,India

Atmospheric aerosols interact with radiation through various pathways. Climate implications ofaerosol-cloud-radiationinteractionsoverSouthAsiahavebeenextensiveinvestigatedusingdedicatedfield experiments and modelling. However, studies on aerosol induced snow darkening and itsimplicationsontheregionhydroclimateareratherlimited.Thedepositionoftheabsorbingaerosolssuchasblack carbon (BC) andduston thehighly reflecting surfaces like snowand ice significantlyreducesthesurfacealbedo(snowdarkeningeffect)whichleadstopositiveradiativeforcing(warming)in theearth-atmosphere system.This aerosol inducedglacier/snowmelting is very importantoverHimalayan/Tibetan region. Regional climate model (RegCM-4.6.0) coupled with Community LandModel(CLM4.5)whichincludesSnow,IceandAerosolRadiative(SNICAR)wasusedtoinvestigatetheeffectofaerosolinducedsnowalbedofeedbackontheregionalradiationbalanceandcirculation.ThedepositionofabsorbingaerosolsdecreasesthesnowalbedoofHimalayan-Tibetanregionby0.1-0.2causingpositiveradiativeforcingof10-12Wm-2.Thissnowalbedoreductionduetoaerosolsresultedinincreaseofthesurfacetemperatureof2-3Kandreductionofsnowcoverfractionby10-20%.Thesnowcoverreductionwasmorethan30%inthemid-HimalayanregionandnorthernTibetanslopesduetoitsproximitytoIGPandTaklimakandesertrespectively.Directradiativeeffect(scatteringandabsorptionofradiation)ofatmosphericaerosolsincreasethemidtropospherictemperatureby0.5-1.0Kwhichisfurtherenhancedby0.2-0.5Kduetosnowalbedofeedback.Theaerosolinducedsnowalbedoforcinganditsimplicationsonthermalstructure,circulationpatternandmonsoonrainfallwillbediscussedindetailduringthepresentation.

Keywords: aerosols, snow darkening, radiative forcing


EvaluationoftheMediterraneanclimateandmarinebiogeochemistrywiththeRegionalEarthSystemModelRegCM-ES

MarcoReale,ICTP-OGS,

MarcoReale,ICTP-OGS;FilippoGiorgi,ICTP;CosimoSolidoro,OGS;ValeriaDiBiagio,OGS;FabioDiSante,ICTPOGS;LauraMariotti,OGS;RiccardoFarneti,ICTP;GianmariaSannino,ENEA

WeevaluatetheskillsofanewversionoftheRegionalEarthSystemmodelRegCM-ESinreproducingthe climate and the marine biogeochemistry of the Mediterranean region. Novel aspects of thiscoupled system include a new version of the atmosphericmodule RegCM (version 4.6.1) and themarine biogeochemical model, BFM, online coupled to the ocean circulationmodelMITgcm. TheevaluationofRegCM-ESperformanceswithrespecttoavailabledatasetsshowsthatthemodelisabletocapturespatialpatterns,inter-annualandinter-monthlyvariabilitiesandmeanclimateintheregiontogetherwithhorizontalandverticalpatternsofchlorophyll-a,dissolvednutrientsandoxygenandmeanvaluesofnetprimaryproductioninthemarineenvironment.Someimprovementsarefoundintherepresentationofthesurfacetemperatureoverthelandinwinterandfall,oftheprecipitationandevaporationovertheseaandofseasurfacetemperature.Themodel,despitesomepersistentbiasessuch as a warm and dry bias over the land in summer, the overestimation of short wave duringsummer,evaporationfromthesea,seasurfacesalinityandverticalmixinginthesomepartsofthebasin, is able to capture some key aspects of the regionalMediterranean climate and its marinebiogeochemistry.

Keywords: RegCM-ES,Mediterranean region, Chlorophyll-a, Net primary production, Dissolved nutrients, Dissolved oxygen


AnalysisofaduststormeventofMay-June2018usingNWPmodel

SanjeevKumarSingh,IIRS,ISRO,India

SanjeevKumarSingh,CharuSingh,IIRS,ISRO,India,India;SachinBudakoti,IITBombay,India

Duststorms,areconsideredasoneofthepotentextremeenvironmentaleventsandareresponsibleto affect human life in various sectors. Dust storm is the emanation or transport of dust in theatmospherefromthesurroundingareas,whichcanreducevisibility,affecttherespiratorysystemofhumanbeing,causethereductionofagricultureproduction,andfurtheraffectvarioussocioeconomicsectors.Duststormresponsibleforitshugecontributiontoincreaseinthepollutionoverurbanareas.Duringspringtimeduetoincreaseinthesoiltemperaturethereisadecreaseinthesoilmoistureoverdessertareas.Lowmoistureavailabilityinthesoilandweatherconditionssuchasspeedofwindsleadsto release of dust particles into the atmosphere. A dust storm is a meteorological phenomenoncommoninaridandsemi-aridregions.WestAsiaismostlyaridorsemiaridregionandsuchconditionsmakes it vulnerable as one of the important source region of dust emission under favorablemeteorologicalconditions.AduststormoriginatedoverIran,Turkmenistan,Afghanistan,andPakistanonlate-May2018,duetoastrongupperlevelstormsystemthattrackednorthoftheregion.TheeventwassoseverethatitsweptalargerregionextendingfromwestAsiatotheIndiansubcontinent.Inthepresent study, we attempted to analyse this extreme dust episode using Weather Research andForecasting(WRF)modelcoupledwithChemistryforthepurposetoevaluatethemodelperformanceincapturing theentirecycleofevent fore.g.emission, transportation, suspensionanddissipation.Modelperformancethroughouttheeventperiodhasbeenassessedusinggroundbasedandsatellitederived estimates. It is noted based on the statistically robust test that WRF-Chem can simulateextreme dust episode reasonablywell. Present study has implications for improved forecasting ofepisodicdustevents.

Keywords: Dust storm, air quality, west Asia, WRFF-Chem ,Dust storm, air quality, west Asia, WRFF-Chem


B3: Biogeochemical processes


LAST NAME FIRST NAME TITLE POSTER NUMBER

KHAN RehanaAssessmentonthevariabilityinopticalandradiativeeffectsofkeyaerosoltypesoverIGPandNCPregions:Temporalheterogeneityandsourceidentification

B3-P-01

TARIQ Salman Spatio-temporalDistributionofAerosolOpticalDepthoverSouthAsiausingMODISdata B3-P-02


B3-P-01

AssessmentonthevariabilityinopticalandradiativeeffectsofkeyaerosoltypesoverIGPandNCPregions:Temporalheterogeneityand

sourceidentification

RehanaKhan,NanjingUniversityofInformationScienceandTechnology,China

Radiative forcingduetoaerosols isakeyparameter inquantifying theircrucial impactsonclimatechange.Itlargelydependsonchemical,opticalandmicrophysicalcharacteristicsofaerosols.Inordertounderstandthetemporalevolution,properties,andeffectsofatmosphericaerosolsovertheIGP(Indo-GangeticPlain)andNCP(NorthChinaPlain),consideredasaerosolhotspotregionslocatedinAsia,significantknowledgeontheaerosolheterogeneityhavebeenwellestablishedfromindividualobservationsoverdifferentsitesinthetworegionsusinglimitedspanofmeasureddata.Tothebestofourknowledgeandexistingliterature,weunderstandthatnoneoftheresearchershavestudiedandcomparedtheaerosolcharacteristicsutilizing theexisting long-termAERONETdataover theselargeaerosolregions.Toachieveanin-depthunderstandingintheaforementioned,thepresentstudyaimed to identify and classify the major aerosol types following the very important clusteringtechniques adapted by several authors (e.g., Russell et al., 2012) and investigate the possibleimplicationstoradiativeforcingovertheregionsbasedontheAERONET’ssunphotometermeasureddataduring2007-2018.

Differentiationofaerosoltypesovertheselectedsitesintworegionswasmadeusingtheappropriatethresholdsforsize-distributionofaerosols(i.e.fine-modefraction,FMF)andradiationabsorptivity(i.e.SSA440 and EAE). A detailed knowledge on the dominant absorption aerosol types was alsoinvestigated to unravel themechanisms of aerosol radiative forcing and improve the accuracy ofsatelliteremotesensing.Fourdifferentaerosoltypeswereidentified,viz.,puredust(PUD),polluteddust (POD), polluted continent (POC), mostly absorbing (MAB i.e., black carbon) andmostly non-absorbing (MNA i.e., organic carbon), inwhich the contribution ofMAB typewas found higher inBeijingandLahorefollowedbyPOCtothetotalaerosols.However,SacolandKarachisiteswerefoundaffectedmostlywithPUD,PODandPOC.Todetect thepresenceof specific emission sources thatenhancethepollutionoverreceptorsites, theconditionalbivariateprobability function (CBPF)andconcentrationweighted trajectorymodel are employed in thepresent study.Besides, the spectraldependenciesofopticalpropertiesfortheseaerosoltypesdifferedconsiderably,withlowvariationsforthedustandabsorbingtypeofaerosolsinAODandSSA,respectively.Theresultswillbefurtherusedtoassessandquantifytheirradiativeimplicationsoverthestudyregions.Itisrevealedthatthehigheratmospheric forcingwasobserved forMABaerosol typeatBeijing followedbyPODtype inLahore,KarachiandSacolalongwiththecorrespondinghigheratmosphericheatingrates.Whereas,thelowestwasfoundforthePOCaerosoltypeinKanpurandLahoreduringthestudyperiod.

Keywords: AERONET, Aerosol types, Optical and radiative effects, Multivariate statistical analysis, Asia


B3-P-02

Spatio-temporaldistributionofAerosolOpticalDepthoverSouthAsiausingMODISdata

SalmanTariq,DepartmentofSpaceScience,UniversityofthePunjab,Pakistan

Aerosolsplayanimportantroleinclimateoftheregion.Inthispaperanefforthasbeenmadetostudythespatio-temporaltrendsofaerosolopticaldepth(AOD)overSouthAsia.Forthispurpose,wehaveused AOD at 550 nm fromModerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) during theperiodSeptember2002-August2015.WehavealsocomparedAODfromAqua-MODISwiththoseofTerra-MODIS,MISRandSeaWiFS.Thehighestvalue(0.973)ofcorrelationcoefficient(R)wasfoundbetweenTerra-AODandAqua-AODwhileforMISRandSeaWiFS,valuesofRwerefoundtobe0.711and0.520respectively.Duringwinter,thehighestvalues(~1)ofAODwererecordedovereasternpartofIndo-GangaticBelt(IGB)whileduringmonsoon,highestvalues(~1)ofAODwerefoundoverwesternpartofIGBconsistingofIndusriverbasininPakistan.AODanomalywerealsocalculatedforthestudyregion.Maximumvalues(~0.4)ofAODanomalyweredetectedoverwesternpartsofIGBinmonsoonseason.TimeseriesofmonthlydeepblueAqua-AODoverSouthAsiashowedincreasingtrendwithΔAOD=9.75%.AnnualmeanAODwasfoundtobe0.290±0.048withmaximumvalueinthemonthofJuneandlowestinSeptember.

Keywords: Aerosols, Remote sensing, South Asia

Parallel Session C: Climate Change Impacts

C1: High impact regional phenomena

ORAL PRESENTATIONS

Parallel Session C: Climate Change Impacts C1: High impact regional phenomena

UbiquitousincreaseofextremeheatstressunderglobalwarmingfromCORDEX-COREclimateprojections

EunSoonIm,TheHongKongUniversityofScienceandTechnology,HongKongSAR,China

EunSoonIm,ThanhNguyen-Xuan,TheHongKongUniversityofScienceandTechnology,HongKongSAR,China;RegCM4CORDEX-CORETeam,ICTP,Italy

Global mean temperature is projected to increase in response to elevated greenhouse gasconcentrations.Inalignmentwithglobalwarming,therisksofheatstresswillbelikelytoincreaseinthefuture.However,thechangeintheglobalmeantemperaturedoesnotlinearlydisaggregateintoregionaltolocalimpactsonextremeheatstressinastraightforwardmanner.Whileregionaltolocalextremesdonotnecessarilyscalewithglobalmeanchanges,heatstressmaynotlinearlyrespondtotemperatureonlyandthechangeinrelativehumidityandtemperatureisoftennegativelycorrelatedunder globalwarming due to the limitedmoisture sources at the regional scale. In this study,weinvestigatethechangesincharacteristicsofextremeheatstressunderRCP2.6andRCP8.5scenariosusing the enormous regional climate projections generated within the CORDEX-CORE framework.RegCM4 with 25 km horizontal resolution, whose physical parameterizations are optimized forindividualdomains, isusedforthedynamicaldownscalingofmultipleGCMsoverthenineselectedCORDEXdomainsincludingNorth,CentralandSouthAmerica,Europe,Africa,East,SouthandSouth-EastAsiaandAustralia. Thewet-bulb temperatureandHeat Index,which represent the combinedeffectsoftemperatureandhumidity,areusedtomeasurethehumanthermalcomfort.Theanalysiswill be focused on identifying regionally emerging severity and the risk of heat stress that areconsideredupperboundariesonhumanheattolerance.ThecomparisonofresultsbetweenRCP2.6andRCP8.5scenarioswillprovideavaluableinsightforpossiblebenefitsofglobalwarmingmitigationevenat regional scales.This studywillhelp toenhancepublicawarenessof thepotentiallydrasticeffectsofclimatechange.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTSThis work is supported by the Korea Environmental Industry & Technology Institute (KEITI) grantfundedbytheMinistryofEnvironment(GrantRE201901084).

Keywords:extremeheatstress,CORDEX-CORE


Puttingdistillationintopractice:co-developingclimateservicestobuildresilienceacrossSouthAsia

BenjaminHarrison,MetOffice,UnitedKingdom

BenjaminHarrison,KatyRichardson,RachelMcInnes,JosephDaron,CathrynFox,KateSalmon,BerndEggen,MetOffice,UnitedKingdom;MandiraShrestha,ICIMOD,Nepal

DespitetherisksposedbyclimatechangetotheSouthAsiaregion,theuptakeanduseofavailableregionalfutureclimateprojectionsiscurrentlylimited.Multiplenationalprojects,regionalresearchprogrammes,andinternational initiativeshaveproducedclimatechangeprojectionsfortheregion,using differentmodels andmethods. Combining and communicating this range of information todifferentstakeholderspresentssignificantscientificandpracticalchallenges.

TheClimateAnalysisforRiskInformationandServicesinSouthAsia(CARISSA)projectispartofanewfour-year Asia Regional Resilience to a Changing Climate (ARRCC) programme funded by the UKDepartment for InternationalDevelopment. The project aims to improve the utility and uptake ofregionalclimateinformation,includingCORDEXSouthAsiadatathroughcollaborationwithIITM,tosupport decision-making, through enhanced regional coordinationwith a focus on four countries;Afghanistan,Bangladesh,NepalandPakistan.ThispresentationwillprovideasummaryoftheCARISSAprojectaspartoftheARRCCprogramme,highlightingjointresearchwithICIMODaskeycollaboratorson the project. We will outline our approach to distilling the existing body of regional climateinformation forkeysectors, includingassessingclimatechange impactson thehydropowersector.Theapproachaimstoextractrelevantmessagestoinformdecision-makingandtheco-developmentofclimateservicestobuildresiliencetoachangingclimate.

Keywords: climate projections,regional climate impacts ,regional climate change ,climate services


CompoundclimateextremesandexposedpopulationinAfricaatdifferentglobalwarminglevelsusingCORDEX-COREprojections

TorstenWeber,ClimateServiceCenterGermany(GERICS)/HZG,Germany

TorstenWeber,PaulBowyer,DianaRechid,DanielaJacob,ClimateServiceCenterGermany(GERICS)/HZG,Germany

Africa is considered tobeoneof themostvulnerablecontinentsdue to itshighexposureand lowadaptivecapacityrelatedtoclimatechange(Niangetal.,2014).Furthermore,AfricaisthesecondmostpopulouscontinentintheWorldafterAsia,withhighratesofpopulationgrowth,suchthattheUNDESAprojectsthatthepopulationoftheAfricancontinent,willdoublebythemiddleofthiscentury.

Africa, and the African population, is already exposed tomany climate risks including heatwaves,drought and intense rainfall events, which can lead to flooding. Despite wide recognition andacceptancewithintheglobalcommunityoftheneedtourgentlyanddrasticallyreduceglobalcarbonemissionstomeetthegoalsoftheParisAgreement,theevidenceisthatouremissionscontinuetorise.Assuch,theEarthwillcontinuetowarm,andchangesinthesekindsofextremeswilllikelyoccur,placingtheAfricanpopulationatincreasedriskofharm.Thelevelofriskfacedwillultimatelydependonwhatkindofpathwayourcarbonemissionsdevelopalong.

Inourpresentation,wewillanalyzecompoundclimateextremessuchasheatwavescombinedwithdroughtsand/orextremeprecipitation,andtheexposedAfricanpopulationtothoseclimateextremesunder two different global warming levels. In detail, we will discuss the intensity, frequency andduration aswell as the co-occurrence of climate riskswith focus on sub-Saharan regions. For theanalysis,wewillexploitthenewlyperformedensembleofCORDEX-COREsimulationsforAfricaataspatialresolutionof25km,andspatialmapsofpopulationdistributionsbasedonscenariosconsistentwiththeSharedSocioeconomicPathways(SSPs).

Reference:Niang,I.,O.C.Ruppel,M.A.Abdrabo,A.Essel,C.Lennard,J.Padgham,andP.Urquhart,2014:Africa.In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects.ContributionofWorkingGroupIItotheFifthAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimate Change [Barros, V.R., C.B. Field, D.J. Dokken, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, T.E. Bilir, M.Chatterjee,K.L.Ebi,Y.O.Estrada,R.C.Genova,B.Girma,E.S.Kissel,A.N.Levy,S.MacCracken,P.R.Mastrandrea,andL.L.White(eds.)].CambridgeUniversityPress,Cambridge,UnitedKingdomandNewYork,NY,USApp.1199-1265

Keywords: compound climate extremes,population,Africa,global warming levels,CORDEX-CORE


ImplementationofanewagingparameterisationschemeinRegCM4

SudiptaGhosh,IndianInstituteofTechnologyDelhi,India

SudiptaGhosh,IndianInstituteofTechnologyDelhi,India;NicoleRiemer,UniversityofIllinoisUrbana-Champaign,UnitedStates;GrazianoGiuliani,TheAbdusSalamInternationalCentrefor

TheoreticalPhysics,Italy;SagnikDey,IndianInstituteofTechnologyDelhi,India

Black carbon (BC) is an important short-lived climate pollutant (SLCP) and the second largest contributor to global warming after CO2. With a simplistic aerosol scheme and fixed aging of 1.15 day (~27.6 hours) RegCM4 does not capture the dynamic aging of BC as a function of coagulation and condensation. When freshly emitted, soot is hydrophobic, but aging of soot due to condensation and coagulation changes its hygroscopic and optical properties. Neglecting these processes leads to large uncertainty in BC forcing and feedback processes. In this work, a reduced aging parameterization scheme has been implemented in RegCM4, to improve its BC representation. RegCM4 has been simulated over the South-Asian CORDEX domain with anthropogenic aerosols for the year 2010 to understand the impact of the new aging scheme. Our study domain is India, being an important contributor of global BC burden. Two sets of simulation has been performed for this study: (i) control simulation i.e considering the fixed aging scale of 1.15day and (ii) simulation with new dynamic aging scheme. Our study showed that the aging timescale from hydrophobic to hydrophilic occurs is less than 20 hours over less polluted regions and is less than 10 hours over polluted regions of India, especially over Indo-Gangetic basin (IGB). These aging scales vary with months but is always less than the fixed aging value over majority of India. Secondly with the new scheme the BC columnar burden and surface mass concentration has increased by almost 7-10%, most pronounced during the drier season (Jan–Feb) when washout is negligible. This can be attributed to more hydrophilic BC formation whose depositional velocity is much less than hydrophobic BC, based on particle size.

Keywords: Aging parameterisation,RegCM4,Black carbon


Endof21stCenturyProjectionsofPrecipitationExtremesinSoutheastAsiabasedonmulti-modelCORDEX-SEAsimulations

SupariSupari,IndonesiaAgencyforMeteorologyClimatologyandGeophysics,Indonesia

SupariSupari,IndonesiaAgencyforMeteorologyClimatologyandGeophysics,Indonesia;FredolinTangang,LiewJuneng,NationalUniversityofMalaysia,Malaysia

Basedontheensembleof8membersofthe25kmx25kmsimulationsofCORDEXSoutheastAsia(CORDEX-SEA),whichcompriseof7GCMsand4RCMs,thispaperpresentstheendof21stcenturyprojectionofseasonalprecipitationextremesoverSoutheastAsiaregionunderRCP4.5and8.5.WeutilizetheindicesoftheExpertTeamonClimateChangeDetectionandIndices(ETCCDI)ofConsecutiveDryDays(CDD),theprecipitationextremeintensity(RX1day)andtheprecipitationextremefrequencyofR10mmandR20mm.Theperformancesoftheensembleduringthehistoricalperiod(1986–2005)comparedtotheTropicalRainfallMeasuringMission(TRMM)3B42version7basedonthegrid-by-gridare considered reasonable althoughbiases canbenotable. Theprobability density functionof theanomaly of indices indicates the model ensemble reasonable approximation of the precipitationextremedistribution.Anumberof significantandrobustchangesareprojectedby theendof21stcentury(2081–2100).Themoststrikingoneisthedryingtendencyduringborealsummer,especiallyover Indonesian region. Significant and robust CDD changes prevail especially under RCP8.5 overSumatra,Java,KalimantanandSulawesi.OtherregionsincludingPeninsularMalaysia,CambodiaandVietnam also are projected to experience increased CDD.On the other hand,Myanmar, northernThailandandLaosareprojectedtohaveincreasedprecipitationextremeintensityduringborealwinterespeciallyunderRCP8.5.Insomeareas,significantchangesareprojectedinallthreeindices.

Keywords: Precipitation Extremes,CORDEX,Southeast Asia

Parallel Session C: Climate Change Impacts C1: High Impact regional phenomena

Evaluationoftheeffectsofamultiphysicsensembleonthesimulationofanextremelyhotsummerin2003overtheCORDEX-EA-IIRegion

ShuyuWang,NanjingUniversity,China

ShuyuWang,JianpingTang,LinyunYang,NanjingUniversity,China

The performance of multi-physics ensemble ofWRFmodel is assessed and evaluated for the JJAextremeprecipitationandtemperaturein2003overtheCORDEX-EA-IIdomain.Whilerelativelylargerbiasesofmodelprecipitationandtemperatureareevidentoverthesub-regionswheretheeffectsofmesoscaleprocessesareimportant,thecombinationsofWRFphysicalschemesalsoshowdependencyon geographic location and climate regimes. Comparably, the cumulus andmicrophysical schemeshave substantial influences on the simulation of precipitation, and the land surface models andcumulusschemesplaycrucialrolesinthesurfacetemperature.ThecombinationofNoahforthelandsurfaceprocess, Lin for themicrophysics,G3D for the cumulus parameterization andCAM for theradiationschemecanprovidethemostreliablereproductionofbothprecipitationandtemperatureextremesoverChina.Thewindfieldsatlow-to-middleatmosphericlevels,whichiscloselyconnectedtomodel’sabilitytoreproduceregionalextremes,aresensitivetothemodeltreatmentoflandsurfaceand cumulus convective process, and the impact of the land-atmospheric interaction on regionalextremes can be greatly modulated by convective activity. In conclusion, the model simulatedtemperatureandprecipitationextremesaresensitivitiestothemodelphysicalprocesses,displayedasrelativelylargeensemblespread.

Keywords: regional extremes, WRF model, multi-physics ensemble analysis


Usingdynamicallydownscaledoutputforclimatechangeriskanalysis:resultsfromanapplicationtosoutheasternUSA

JialiWang,ArgonneNationalLaboratory,UnitedStates

JialiWang,RaoKotamarthi,ArgonneNationalLaboratory,UnitedStates

Inthispresentationwewilltalkabouttheapplicationofdynamicallydownscaledclimateoutputforahigh impact of climate change risk analysis on critical infrastructure for support of AT&T, acommunicationcompany.

Ourdynamicdownscaling(usingWRF)coversmostofNorthAmerica(7200kmx6192km)ataspatialresolutionof12km.Wedevelopedsixensemblemembers,withone30yrofWRFsimulationsdrivenby NCEP-R2, and five ensemble members of simulation and projection driven by three differentCoupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Earth system models (ESMs): GFDL-ESM 2G,HadGEM2-ES,andCCSM4,torepresenttherangeofthesensitivitiesofallESMresponsestodoubledCO2.Formostoftheensemblesimulationsweraneachofthelateralboundaryconditionswithtwoscenarios―RCP4.5andRCP8.5,eachforonehistoricalperiodandtwofuturetimeperiods―2045–2054and2085–2094.Themodeloutputhavebeenextensivelyevaluatedandstudied,especiallyfortemperature and precipitation and their extreme features.We have published a dozen of journalarticlesdirectlyoutofthisproject,inadditiontoseveralscientificreportsandaPhDthesis.

ThispresentationwillfocusonsoutheasternUS(northCarolina,southCarolina,Georgia,andflorida),lookingatinlandfloodingduetoheavyprecipitation,coastalfloodingduetostormsurgefromtropicalcycloneandhurricanes,aswellashigh-intensitywindspeeds.The12kmWRFoutputwereusedasinputforallthesethreetasks.WemodeledthehistoricalandfutureinlandfloodingusingWRF-Hydro®(Version 5) at spatial resolution of 200 meters. The input provided by WRF include 3hourlyprecipitation, temperature, wind, solar radiation, surface pressure, vegetation fraction, as well asrelativehumidity.WemodeledthehistoricalandfuturecoastalfloodingusingADCIRC(whichhasaunstructuredmesh)withfinestresolutionof50malongthecoastalarea.TheinputprovidedbyWRFincludesealevelpressureand10mwindspeedanddirection.Allthefuturescenarioswereprojectedatmid-21st century considering a business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5).We also conducted generalextremevalue(GEV)analysisusingthesemodeloutputtogenerate10-yr,30yrand50yrreturnlevelsofsurfacewaterdepthandwindspeeds.

Resultsshowsthatduetotheincreaseofheavyprecipitationunderclimatechange,thesurfacewaterlevelare increasedbymorethan5%inthesoutheasternregions.Theextremesareincreasedevengreater.Forexample,aonce-every-50yreventwillproducewaterdepthupto10feetalongthecoastalareas along southeastern Georgia. The sea level rise signal associated with warming projectionsconsistentwiththeRCP8.5scenarioappeartobethelargestdriveroffuturewarm-seasonfloodingandincreasesnuisance-levelfloodingeventsandseverefloodingalongthefourprioritystates.Whilethewindspeedchangesvaryacrossregionsandseasonal,southernFloridatendstoshowthegreatestchangeinmaximumsustainedwindconditions.Forexample,once-every-50yrwindspeedscangoupto90mphforalargepartofthesouthernFloridacoastalregionbymid-century.

Keywords: climate change impact,infrastructure


FutureprojectionsintropicalcycloneactivityovermultipleCORDEXdomainsusingRegCM4.7

JoseTorres,ICTP,Italy

JoseTorres,ErikaCoppola,FilippoGiorgi,ICTP,Italy;KevinHodges,DepartmentofMeteorology,andNationalCentreforAtmosphericScience,UniversityofReading,Reading,UnitedKingdom;Sushant

Das,TaleenaSines,GrazianoGiuliani,ICTP,Italy

Under the CORDEX initiative, simulations were performed using the latest version of the ICTP Regional Climate model (RegCM4.7) at a spatial resolution of 25 km and over three different domains (Australasia, Central America and South Asia). These simulations cover the 130-year period, 1970-2099, for two representative concentration pathways, 2.6 (RCP2.6) and 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission scenarios, and were driven by three General Circulation Models (GCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). Additionally, a simulation that covers the near-present period of 1980 to 2014 is produced. This experiment is driven by ERA-interim (RegCM4.7-ERAI) fields to validate the GCMs. In these simulations, the potential changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity for future climate conditions are investigated, using an objective algorithm to identify and track the TCs. The RegCM4.7 simulations driven by GCMs are evaluated for the period of 1971–2005 by comparing with the RegCM4.7-ERAI and the observed TC data from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS); then the changes in the future period (2070–2099) relative to the baseline period (1976–2005) are analyzed for RegCM4.7 simulations driven by GCMs. Preliminary results show that RegCM4.7 simulations driven by GCMs are capable of most of the features of the observed TC climatology and the future projections show an increase in the frequency of the strongest TCs in all the basins.

Keywords: Climate Change,Regional Climate Model,RegCM4.7,Tropical Cyclones


HydroclimatologicalvariablesintheSouthAmericaCORDEXdomainforLaPlataRiverBasin

VanesaPántano,UniversityofBuenosAires/CONICET,Argentina

VanesaPántano,UniversityofBuenosAires/CONICET,Argentina;AlejandroBuilesJaramillo,FacultaddeArquitecturaeIngeniería.InstituciónUniversitariaColegioMayordeAntioquia,Colombia

LaPlataBasinrepresentsthesecondlargesthydrologicalbasinintheworldafterAmazonbasin.Inthisbasinmostofagro-industriesofArgentina,BrasilandUruguayarelocated;thereforetheanalysisofhydrometeorologicalvariablesinthisregionisofparamountimportanceforplanningthatcanaccountforhalfoftheGDPofthethreecountries.OurfirstaimistostudytherepresentationofprecipitationandevapotranspirationoftheRegionalClimateModelRCA4v3drivenbynineGlobalClimateModelsavailableforSouthAmericadomaininCORDEXinLaPlataBasin.Thesecondobjectiveistoanalyzefutureprojectionsonhydrological cycle,underRCP8.5 scenario.Theperformanceof themodels iscompared with two datasets: GPCC for monthly precipitation and GLEAM for monthlyevapotranspiration,fortheIPCCmodelverificationperiod1986-2006.Accountingforlongtermmeansofthevariables,annualcycleiswellrepresented.Particularly,thereisunderestimationofprecipitationthatcanreachupto74%(byIPSL-CM5A-MR)duringdryseason(australwinter)andoverestimationintheorderof50%(byCanESM2)forwetseason(australsummer),dependingonthemodel.Inthecaseofevapotranspiration,overestimationishigherinthewetseasonreachingupto10%(byNorESM1-M)andfordryseasonthereisnoagreementbetweenmodels,presentingbothoverandunderestimation.Additionally, the spatial distribution of the RMSE presents higher values to the north forevapotranspiration and to the southeast for precipitation. Finally, projections present increase inannualamplitudeforbothvariablesunderthemostsevereclimatechangescenario.Withtheresultsso far we can conclude that CORDEX models can be used for assessment of hydroclimatologicalconditionsof thebasin taking intoaccount the results fromvalidationprocess, contributing to thedesignofstrategiesofadaptationatregionalscaletotheprojectedincreaseinthehydrologicalcycle.

Keywords: RCMs validation ,water cycle,impact on agriculture and hydrological sectors


CoastalfloodingduetoextremeeventsintheMediterraneancoastofSpain

AndreaLiraLoarca,AndalusianInstituteforEarthSystemResearch-UniversityofGranada,Spain

AndreaLiraLoarca,ManuelCobos,AndalusianInstituteforEarthSystemResearch-UniversityofGranada,Spain;GiovanniBesio,UniversityofGenoa,Italy;AsunciónBaquerizo,AndalusianInstitute

forEarthSystemResearch-UniversityofGranada,Spain

pdffileavailableat

http://icrc-cordex2019.cordex.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/09/C1_9_Andrea-Lira-Loarca1.pdf

Keywords:coastalflooding,EURO-CORDEX,stormsurge,waves

Parallel Session C:

Climate Change Impacts

C1: High impact regional phenomena



ADIBI Parya SeasonalandinterannualvariationsoftheITCZintheIndianOcean

C1-P-01

ANENI Thomas EmpiricalAssessmentofClimateImpactonthePopulationoftheOilpalmLeafminer

C1-P-02

ANTONIO Richard CantheCORDEX-SEAhistoricalsimulationscapturetheobservedspatiotemporalcharacteristicsofthedroughtsignaloverthePhilippines?

C1-P-03

ARSHAD Adnan QuantificationoffutureclimaterisksandonsetofextremeweathereventstometropolitancitiesinAsia

C1-P-04

ASHFAQ Moetasim ResponseofregionalmonsoonsatvariouslevelsofradiativeforcinginRegCM4-CORDEXsimulations

C1-P-05

BAL Sourabh InvestigationandprojectionofHumanThermalComfortStressoverWestBengal,IndiausingobservationsandCORDEXclimatemodelexperiments

C1-P-06

BAL Sourabh PredictingDenguecasesinKolkata,IndiabasedonvariationofclimateusingZero-InflatedRegressionModel

C1-P-07

BUILES-JARAMILLO Alejandro HydroclimatologicalvariablesintheSouthAmericaCORDEXdomainfortheAmazonRiverBasin

C1-P-08

CARRIL Andrea EnergysimulationofsocialhousinginArgentina:howextremesandclimatechangeimpactontheenergydemand

C1-P-09

CRUZ FayeAbigail Multi-modelprojectionsofclimatechangehotspotsinthePhilippines

C1-P-10

DAS MohanKumar EvaluationofthenumericalmodelwithCORDEXRegionalClimateModelsforheavyprecipitationintheMeghnaBasinregion

C1-P-11

GLEIXNER Stephanie EPICC–across-sectoralandcross-regionalintercomparisonofclimateimpactsandadaptationoptions

C1-P-12

GUTOWSKI William ExtremeWinterPrecipitationvs.ModelResolutionacrosstheUpperMississippiRiverValley

C1-P-13

HABTEMARIAM Mekonnen ClimatechangeimpactsonhydrologyandwaterresourcesofUpperAwashSub-Basin,Ethiopia

C1-P-14

KABITE Gizachew Spatiotemporaldynamicsofrainfall,temperature,andvegetationgreennessforDhidhessaRiverBasin,Ethiopia

C1-P-15

KHOKHLOV Valeriy UsingCORDEXdatatoestimatefuturehydro-ecologicalconditionsinNorth-WesternBlackSeacoast

C1-P-16

KRISHNAPILLAI ShadanananNair Ananalysisoftheabnormalfloodanditsimpactonenvironmentandsocio-economicconditionsinKerala

C1-P-17

LIU Hongbo Numericalsimulationofsynoptictoquasi-biweeklydisturbancesinvolvedinthesummer2003heavyrainfallinEastChina

C1-P-18

MARGARYAN Varduhi Featuresofspatiotemporaldistributionandmanagementissuesofdangerousmeteorologicalphenomenaontheterritoryoftherepublicofarmenia

C1-P-19

OVCHARUK Valeriya MethodofcalculationofmaximumrunoffofspringfloodforungaugedriverscasestudytheDesnariverbasin

C1-P-20

OVCHARUK Valeriya Scientificandmethodologicalapproachestotakingintoaccounttheinfluenceofclimatechangeontheminimumriversrunoff

C1-P-21

QUAGRAINE Kwesi CapturingCo-BehaviorModesinCORDEXregionalclimatemodelsoverSouthernAfrica

C1-P-22

RAHMAN Md.Mizanur RainfallandtemperaturescenariosoverBangladeshbasedonRCPscenariosusingRegCM

C1-P-23

SAMIAPPAN Senthilnathan ImpactofregionalclimatemodelprojectedchangesonmaizeyieldoverSouthernIndia

C1-P-24

SEIN Dmitry UnderstandingprecipitationextremesoverCORDEXSouthAsia:Aregionalearthsystemmodelassessment

C1-P-25

SEMENOVA Inna ModernSpatiotemporalDistributionofSquallsontheTerritoryofUkraine

C1-P-26

SEMENOVA Inna FeaturesoftheRegionalAtmosphericCirculation,LeadingtoFormationofDryWindsinUkraineWithdrawal

C1-P-27

SUMAK Katsiaryna SynopticconditionsandfrequencyofheavyrainfallsinBelarus C1-P-28

VERGARA-TEMPRADO Jesus Intensificationofheavyprecipitationeventsincontinental-scaleclimate-changesimulationswithkilometer-scaleresolution

C1-P-29

WANG Lu CanreanalysisproductswithonlysurfacevariablesassimilatedcaptureMJOcharacteristics?

C1-P-30

WANG Shuyu Evaluationoftheeffectsofamultiphysicsensembleonthesimulationofanextremelyhotsummerin2003overtheCORDEX-EA-IIRegionMovedtooralpresentation

C1-P-31

WANG Pinya TheSensitivitytoInitialSoilMoistureforThreeSevereCasesofHeatWavesOverEasternChina

C1-P-32

YEON-HEE Kim Quantifyinganthropogeniccontributiontothe2017EarliestSummerOnsetinKoreaUsingLarge-EnsembleRCMSimulations

C1-P-33

ZHU Jiawen ResponseoftropicalterrestrialgrossprimaryproductiontothesuperElNiñoeventin2015

C1-P-34


C1-P-01

SeasonalandinterannualvariationsoftheITCZintheIndianOcean

ParyaAdibi,InstituteofGeophysics,UniversityofTehran,Iran

ParyaAdibi,OmidAlizadeh-Choobari,InstituteofGeophysics,UniversityofTehran,Iran

The climate of tropical regions on themonthly and longer time scales is significantly affected bymigrationoftheintertropicalconvergencezone(ITCZ),whiletheITCZpositiondependsonthecross-equatorialatmosphericenergytransport(AET)andtheequatorialnetenergyinput(NEI0).UsingtheERA-Interimdatasetfortheperiod1980-2018,theITCZpositionintheIndianOceananditsmigrationontheseasonalandinterannualtimescalesareinvestigated.Inaddition,thecross-equatorialAETandtheNEI0intheIndianOceanareanalyzedtodeterminepositionoftheITCZbasedontheatmosphericenergybalance.ResultsindicatedthattheannualmeanpositionoftheITCZintheIndianOceanisintheSouthernHemisphere(approximatelyat5.5ºS),whileinsomeseasons,adoubleITCZforms.Itisalsofoundthatduringtheperiod1980-2018,theannualmeanpositionoftheITCZintheIndianOceanismigratedtowardtheequatorbyapproximately1º.ThelargestmeridionalmigrationoftheITCZintheIndianOceanoccurswiththeperiodof1year,showingseasonalmigrationoftheITCZassociatedwiththemonsooncirculation.OuranalysisindicatedthatpositionofthemaximumprecipitationintheIndianOceanisdifferentfromtheenergyfluxequator(EFE,wherethecolumn-integratedmeridionalenergy flux vanishes), such that the EFE is always located at north of the position of maximumprecipitation.Itisfoundthatvariationsofthecross-equatorialAETandtheONIarenotconsistentlycorrelated,whilevariationsoftheNEI0intheIndianOceanandtheONIarequiteconsistent.Variationsofthecross-equatorialAETdominateinterannualvariationsoftheITCZposition,whilevariationsoftheNEI0dominateseasonalvariationsoftheITCZpositionintheIndianOcean.

Keywords: ITCZ,cross-equatorial atmospheric energy transport, equatorial net energy input, energy flux equator, Indian Ocean


C1-P-02

EmpiricalAssessmentofClimateImpactonthePopulationoftheOilpalmLeafminer

ThomasAneni,NigerianInstituteforOilpalmResearch,Nigeria

ThomasAneni,VictorAdaigbe,NigerianInstituteforOilpalmResearch,Nigeria

Theleafminer(Coelaenomenoderaelaeidis)isthemostseriousinsectpestoftheoilpalm.Itbreaksout in epidemic proportions periodically, resulting in severe leaf defoliation and consequently lowfresh fruit bunch (ffb) yield. This study analyses patterns in leafminer abundance, and elucidatesclimaticfactorsinfluencingleafminerabundance.Theleafminersamplingrecordsduring2009-2010inoilpalmfieldsandrecordsfromprevioussurveysfrom1976-1980wereutilized.Thestudyanalysestemperature,rainfallandrelativehumiditybetween1961and2010inthemainstationoftheNigerianInstitute for Oil Palm Research (NIFOR). Data on temperature, rainfall and relative humiditywereobtainedfromNIFORmeteorologicalunit.Decadalvariationinairtemperatureindicatedincreaseinairtemperaturebetween1961-1970and2001-2010whilevariationinrainfallandrelativehumidityindicatedadecrease.Itwasalsoobservedthattherewastemperatureincreaseacrossseasonswithhighest increase inthedryseason,andsuitable for leafminercontrol.Relationshipbetweenmeanweatherfactors(temperature,humidityandrainfall)andleafminerinsectstages(larvae,pupaeandadult)between2009and2010showedsignificantrelationship(P≤0.05).Thiscouldbeattributedtorelativelyhigherweathervaluesandhigherleafminerpopulation.Theneedforcontinuousmonitoringhasgreatpotentialforcontrolofinsectpestsinoilpalmgrowingareas.

Keywords: Climate variability, Insect population, Climate impact


C1-P-03

CantheCORDEX-SEAhistoricalsimulationscapturetheobservedspatiotemporalcharacteristicsofthedroughtsignaloverthePhilippines?

RichardAntonio,ManilaObservatory,Philippines

RichardAntonio,GemmaTeresaNarisma,FranciaAvila,FayeAbigailCruz,ManilaObservatory,Philippines

Drought has been a recurrent hazard in the Philippines. Gaining an understanding of thespatiotemporal characteristics of drought in the Philippine setting is needed to frame appropriatemitigation measures. Meteorological thresholds leading to drought conditions differ on regionalscales. The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to characterize drought through frequency,durationandseasonality.Thisstudyusesfivegriddedreanalysisobservationaldatasets:CHIRPS,CRU,JRA,PERSIANNandUDELtocomparewiththeresultsfromCORDEX-SEAhistoricalsimulations.TheCORDEX-SEAsimulationsweredownscaledusingtheRegCM4modelanddrivenbydifferentGCMS:CNRM,CSIRO,EC-EARTH,HADGEM2andMPI.

SPIvaluesarecomputedover3and6monthtimescalesrepresentingseasonalandsemiannualrainfallcontexts.ForbothSPI3(agricultural)andSPI6(hydrological)droughts,resultsshowthatdroughtsaremore frequent over the largest islands (Luzon and Mindanao) with a clear west-east difference.Generally,therearemoredroughtsinthewesternhalfofthePhilippines.Furthermore,resultsshowthat Luzon experiencesmore distributed number of droughts over all duration lengths (2, 3, 4, 5months or greater), compared toMindanao. Luzon experiencesmore frequent 3-month droughtswhileMindanaodroughtsareseentobesplitequally,lastingfrom2to3months,withgenerallynodroughts lasting 5months or longer. In terms of seasonality, SPI3 droughts startmost commonlybetweenDecember and February,while SPI6 starts between February andApril over all areas. Byassessing the performance of CORDEX-SEA historical simulations in replicating the drought signalexhibited by observation datasets, application of the same methodology on future downscaledprojectionscanbecontextualizedandassessedproperly.

Keywords: Drought, Standard Precipitation Index, climate variability, CORDEX-SEA


C1-P-04

QuantificationoffutureclimaterisksandonsetofextremeweathereventstometropolitancitiesinAsia

AdnanArshad,DepartmentofMeteorology,ChinaAgriculturalUniversity,Pakistan

AdnanArshad,DepartmentofMeteorology,ChinaAgriculturalUniversity,Pakistan;AanehiMundra,JawaharlalNehruUniversity,NewDelhi,India,India;SagarikaBhatta,PowershiftOrganizationforClimateChange,Nepal,Nepal;NegarEkrami,CollegeofGeosciences’,UniversityofTehran,Tehran,Iran,Iran;MandroyPangaribuan,AdvanceSchoolonHeatStress,AcademiaScinica,Taipei,Taiwan,

Taiwan,China;MuhammadFarhan,NaresuanUniversity,Phitsanluk,Thailand,Thailand;NuraAbdulmuminiYelwa,DepartmentofGeologyUniversityofMalaya,Malaysia

More than 50% (∼3.5 billion) of the global and 49.6%Asianpopulation is living in cities becomingincreasinglyurbanized,andpopulationinAsiaisequivalentto59.66%ofthetotalworldpopulation.Currentgrowthsimulationsindicatedthattherelativemagnitudewillincreaseto58%by2030,andby2050nearly6.3billionoutofanestimatedglobalpopulationof9.1billionwillliveinurbanterritory.Citiesconsume75%oftheworld’senergyuseandproducemorethan76%ofallCO2.Warmingofjust1.5degreesCelsiuscouldbringonthemostsevereconsequencesofclimatechange.During2010to2018people’s livesweredisruptedbyheatwaves, floods,drought,erratic rainsandsea level rise.Changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level, and coastal storms will likely increase thevulnerabilityofinfrastructureacrosstheAsia.Eachcityhasitsownparticularreactionunderthestressofextremeweatherevents,andweatherposesoneofthebiggestriskstohumanhealthandeconomy.Citieshavedirectlinkageswithclimatechange,andurbancentersaremajordriversofglobalwarmingbecause they concentrate transportation, industries, households and many of the emitters ofgreenhousegases.Already,athirdoftheurbanpopulationindevelopingcountriesinlivinginslum,thisusuallyimpliesalackofsafedrinkingwater,sanitation,andhighlyvulnerabletonaturaldisasters.InAsiamorethan18%ofurbanpopulationlivinginLowElevationCoastalZonethatislessthan10meters above sea level (Mumbai, Karachi & Jakarta). Marginalized urban residents such as labormigrants in, for instanceManila,ColomboandDhakaare forcedto live inhighlyexposed locationswhicharehighlysusceptibletoextremeweather.Usingregionalresearchandtoanalyzevulnerability,impacts,andadaptationpractices,thispaperestimatesimpactstohumanhealth,economy,coastalproperties,andurbaninfrastructureandinvestigatessensitivitytovaryinggreenhousegasemissionscenariosandclimatesensitivities.Thestudywillprovidebetterunderstandingtopolicymakerstorethinkwhatandwhereacentralbusinessdistrictisinthe21stcenturytoreduceourGHGemissionsby45%before2030andreachnetzeroemissionsby2075.

Keywords: Climate Warming, Extreme Weather, Future Risks, Urbanization


C1-P-05

ResponseofregionalmonsoonsatvariouslevelsofradiativeforcinginRegCM4-CORDEXsimulations

MoetasimAshfaq,OakRidgeNationalLaboratory,UnitedStates

MoetasimAshfaq,OakRidgeNationalLaboratory,UnitedStates;TerezaCavazos,CenterforScientificResearchandHigherEducationofEnsenada,BajaCalifornia,Mexico;MichelleReboita,

InstituteofNaturalResources(IRN),Brazil,-;LincolnAlves,CenterforEarthSystemScience,Brazil,-;ChenWeilin,NanjingUniversityofInformationScienceandTechnology,China,-;Christiana

Olusegun,KarlsruheInstituteofTechnology,-;MojisolaAdeniyi,UniversityofIbadan,Nigeria,-;ShahidAwan,AcademiaSinica,Taiwan,-;QudsiaZafar,GlobalChangeImpactStudiesCentre,Pakistan,-;ErikaCoppola,InternationalCentreforTheoreticalPhysics,Italy,-;FilippoGiorgi,

InternationalCentreforTheoreticalPhysics,Italy

UsinganensembleofRegCM4simulationsovervariousmonsoondomains,includingNorthAmerica,SouthAmerica,WesternAfrica, SouthAsia, East Asia andAustralia,we investigate changes in theregionalscalemonsoondynamicsinresponsetochangesintheradiativeforcing,andits impactonprecipitationdistributionovermonsoonregions.Allregionalmonsoonsimulationsareconductedat25kmhorizontalgridspacingusinglateralandlowerboundaryforcingfromthreeCMIP5GCMs,eachcovering1970to2100undertwoRadiativeConcentrationPathways(RCP2.6andRCP8.5)inthe21stcenturyprojectionsperiod.Wemakeuseof Lagrangianbasedmoistureback trajectoryanalysis tounderstand the variations in moisture sourcing from contributing oceanic and terrestrial sources,dynamic and thermodynamics divers of those variations, and their impacts on the precipitationdistribution at varying time-scales. Additionally, we compare results from each of the regionalmonsoonstounderstandthecommonalitiesanddissimilaritiesintheregionalprecipitationresponses,including those related with themonsoon onset, precipitation seasonality and extremes, and thetimingofemergencewhenprojectedchangesarepermanentlyabovethebaselinevariability.Useofcentennial-scale,multipleRCPandmultiGCMdrivenRegCM4simulationsprovideanopportunitytounderstandtherobustnessaswellasthesensitivityofprojectedfine-scaleregionalmonsoonchangestovariouslevelsofradiativeforcing.

Keywords: global monsoons, RegCM4


C1-P-06

InvestigationandprojectionofHumanThermalComfortStressoverWestBengal,IndiausingobservationsandCORDEXclimatemodelexperiments

SourabhBal,SwamiVivekanandaInstituteofScience&Technology,India

Numerous studies feature the extreme human bio-meteorological conditions in terms of humanthermal comfort index in India for the last few decades. This research highlights the human bio-meteorological conditionsand itsvariability inWestBengal (oneof thedenselypopulatedstateofIndia) for the last 50 years by using Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). The meteorologicalvariablesfrommeteorologicalstationsinWestBengalareusedtocalculateUTCIandthecomputedUTCIisalsocomparedwiththeUTCIcalculatedfromtheregionalclimatemodelfromtheCORDEX-southAsiaexperiments.TheresultsshowedincreasingtrendofUTCIinalmostallthestationsofWestBengalduringthestudyperiod.Inaddition,futurehumanthermalcomfortisprojectedforKolkataanditsneighbouringdistricts(capitalcityofWestBengal)underthescenariosofRCP4.5andRCP8.5.ThefutureprojectionofUTCI inKolkata and its rural outskirtswith climate change taken into accountsuggeststhatannualaggregateofheatstressdayswillincreasesignificantlywhilethenothermalstressdaysorcoldstressdayswillreduce.

Keywords: Urban Heat Island, Human Thermal Stress


C1-P-07

PredictingDenguecasesinKolkata,IndiabasedonvariationofclimateusingZero-InflatedRegressionModel

SourabhBal,SwamiVivekanandaInstituteofScience&Technology,India

SourabhBal,SwamiVivekanandaInstituteofScience&Technology,India;SaharSodoudi,InstituteforMeteorology,FreieUniversitat,

Dengueisoneofthemostseriousvector-borneinfectiousdiseasesinKolkata,Indiaanditsvirusesandtheirvectorsaresensitivetoclimatechange.ThewidespreadcharacteristicsofdengueinKolkataareidentified with some key meteorological factors such as maximum temperature, minimumtemperature, relative humidity and rainfall on the basis of statistically significant cross-correlationcoefficientvalues.Thestatisticalmodelondenguecaseswasframedwiththekeyfactorsforthefirst120monthsofthedatasetfrom2005-2016.Theremainingmonthswereusedtovalidatethemodel.Finally,climatevariablesfromtheCoordinatedRegionalClimateDownscalingExperiment(CORDEX)forSouthAsiaregionwere input intothedevelopedstatisticalmodeltoprojecttheoccurrencesofdengue infections under different climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). It has beenestimated that from2020-2100,denguecaseswillalwaysbehigher fromSeptember toNovemberwithmorecasesinRCP8.5(871casesperyear)thanRCP4.5(530casesperyear).ThisstudyfurtherevaluatesthatfromDecembertoFebruary,increasesincarbondioxideconcentrationunderRCP8.5leadstowarmerweatherconditionsessentialforthesurvivalandmultiplicationofvectors,withmorethantwotimesthedenguecasesthaninRCP4.5.

Keywords: Mosquito borne disease, Dengue


C1-P-08

HydroclimatologicalvariablesintheSouthAmericaCORDEXdomainfortheAmazonRiverBasin

AlejandroBuiles-Jaramillo,InstituciónUniversitariaColegioMayordeAntioquia,FacultaddeArquitecturaeIngeniería,Colombia

AlejandroBuiles-Jaramillo,InstituciónUniversitariaColegioMayordeAntioquia,FacultaddeArquitecturaeIngeniería,Colombia;VanesaPántano,DepartamentodeCienciasdelaAtmosferaylosOcéanos.UniversidaddeBuenosAires.ConsejoNacionaldeInvestigacionesCientíficasyTécnicas

(CONICET),BuenosAires,Argentina,Argentina

Introduction:With7.0x106km2theAmazonRiverbasinrepresentsthemostimportanthydrologicalregioninSouthAmerica.TheAmazondischargesapproximately200,000m3s-1becomingthemainsourceoffreshwaterfromthecontinenttotheAtlanticOcean.Methodologyanddata:OuraimistostudytherepresentationofprecipitationandevapotranspirationoftheRegionalClimateModelRCA4v3drivenbythenineGlobalClimateModelsavailablefortheSouthAmericadomaininCORDEX.Forthatpurpose,weselectedascomparisonperiodtheverificationperiodoftheIPCCmodelverification,between1986and2006atamonthlytimescale.Theperformanceofthemodelsiscomparedwithtwodatasets, theone fromGPCC formonthlyprecipitationand theone fromGLEAM formonthlyevapotranspiration. Results: Accounting for the long termmeans of the variables in the period ofanalysis,modelsunderestimateprecipitationby19%andunderestimateevapotranspirationby4%.When analyzed by wet (January) and dry (July) seasons we find that for precipitation there isunderestimationduringthedryseasonthatcanreachupto70%andunderestimationintheorderof60% for thewet seasonconsistently inmodelCSIRO. In thecaseofevapotranspiration, thehigherunderestimationsareofapproximately30%inmodelCSIRO.However,asforthespatialdistributionoftheRMSE,thenortheastoftheAmazonpresentsthehighesterrorsforevapotranspirationandthenorthoftheAmazonforprecipitation.Finally,projectionspresent increase inannualamplitudeforbothvariablesunderthemostsevereclimatechangescenario.Conclusions:WiththeresultssofarwecanconcludethatCORDEXmodelscanbeusedforassessmentofhydroclimatologicalconditionsofthebasintakingintoaccountthatthereisageneralunderestimationofbothvariablesandthatCSIROisamongsttheninemodelstheonewiththelowerperformanceinordertorepresenttheanalyzedvariables.

Keywords: Amazon River Basin, SAM-CORDEX, Hydroclimatology, Water resources planning


C1-P-09

EnergysimulationofsocialhousinginArgentina:howextremesandclimatechangeimpactontheenergydemand

AndreaF.Carril,UniversidaddeBuenosAires-ConsejoNacionaldeInvestigacionesCientíficasyTécnicas,CentrodeInvestigacionesdelMarylaAtmósfera(CIMA/UBA-CONICET),BuenosAires,

Argentina

AndreaF.CARRIL,UniversidaddeBuenosAires-ConsejoNacionaldeInvestigacionesCientíficasyTécnicas,CentrodeInvestigacionesdelMarylaAtmósfera(CIMA/UBA-CONICET),BuenosAires,

Argentina,-;TaneaCoronato,UniversidadNacionaldeRosario-ConsejoNacionaldeInvestigacionesCientíficasyTécnicas,InstitutodeFísicaRosario(IFIR/CONICET-UNR),Rosario,Argentina,Argentina;RitaAbalone,UniversidadNacionaldeRosario-ConsejoNacionaldeInvestigacionesCientíficasyTécnicas,InstitutodeFísicaRosario(IFIR/CONICET-UNR).FacultaddeCienciasExactas,IngenieríayAgrimensura(UNR),Rosario,Argentina,Argentina;PabloZaninelli,UniversidaddeBuenosAires-ConsejoNacionaldeInvestigacionesCientíficasyTécnicas,CentrodeInvestigacionesdelMarylaAtmósfera(CIMA/UBA-CONICET),BuenosAires.FacultaddeCienciasAstronómicasyGeofísicas

(UNLP),LaPlata,Argentina,Argentina

Becauseone-thirdofthetotalenergydemandinArgentinacorrespondstotheresidentialsector,thereisanurgentneedtodefinecriteriaandimplementmeasures,includingthelabelingofenergyefficiencyof buildings, the rational use of energy, and the sustainable construction. Energy simulation ofbuildingsisaworkingareathatisatthecenteroftheproblemandanessentialresourceforestimatingthe energy consumption associated with the use of housing. This requirement is also stronglydependenton theclimatic conditionsof theplacewhere thehouse is locatedandconsidering thecomfortconditionsrequiredforeachclimate.

The occurrence of extreme events and changes in its characteristics (e.g., increase, intensificationand/or changes in the frequencyofoccurrenceofwarmspells)will havean impacton theenergysector.Toestimateit,weperformaseriesofexperimentsusingabuildings’energysimulationplatform(EnergyPlus)toevaluatethehygrothermalbehaviorofsocialhousesinRosarioCity(Argentina),forcedby boundary conditions from CORDEX models. Aim of this work is to (i) study the hygrothermalbehaviorofsocialhouses,(ii)definedesignimprovementsandestimatechangesintheaverageenergydemand,and(iii)analyzetheimpactoftheoccurrenceofextremeeventsand(iv)theimpactoftheclimatechangeonthepeaksofenergydemandduetoconsumptionfromtheresidentialsector.

Keywords: Energy demand, residential sector, confort conditions, extreme events, Rosario City, Argentina


C1-P-10

Multi-modelprojectionsofclimatechangehotspotsinthePhilippines

FayeAbigailCruz,ManilaObservatory,Philippines

FayeAbigailCruz,FranciaAvila,ManilaObservatory,Philippines;ShaneMarieVisaga,GemmaTeresaNarisma,ManilaObservatory;AteneodeManilaUniversity,Philippines;JulieMaeDado,

ManilaObservatory,Philippines;FredolinTangang,UniversitiKebangsaanMalaysia;RamkhamhaengUniversity,Malaysia;LiewJuneng,UniversitiKebangsaanMalaysia,Malaysia;ThanhNgo-Duc,UniversityofScienceandTechnologyofHanoi,VietnamAcademyofScienceand

Technology,Vietnam;TanPhan-Van,VNUUniversityofScience,Vietnam;JerasornSantisirisomboon,RamkhamhaengUniversity,Thailand;PatamaSinghruck,ChulalongkornUniversity,Thailand;DodoGunawan,AgencyforMeteorology,ClimatologyandGeophysics,Indonesia;EdvinAldrian,Agency

forAssessmentandApplicationofTechnology,Indonesia

Given the impacts of future climate change, the identification of potential climate change hotspots (i.e. areas highly responsive to changes in climate) is useful for risk assessment, in order to prepare contextualized adaptation strategies. In the Philippines, previous analyses of observation records have shown significant trends and changes in climate in particular areas. Using the multi-model, multi-scenario projections of SEACLID/CORDEX Southeast Asia, this study aims to examine how these climate change hotspots will change in the future, as well as to identify potentially new hotspots due to significant changes in magnitude and/or variability. Changes in climate means and extremes in the Philippines are analyzed for three time periods (2016–2035, 2046–2065, 2080–2099) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, relative to the 1986–2005 baseline period. Initial results show warming that can reach 4°C on average at end of the 21st century under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Models generally agree on the direction of change in the temperature extreme indices, but also show differences in spatial extent, frequency of occurrence, and duration of warm/cold spells. Future drier conditions are also projected in most parts of the Philippines, as indicated by decreases in annual rainfall and heavy wet days, and increases (decreases) in consecutive dry (wet) days, but with more intense rainfall events. Compared to temperature, there is more variability in projected changes in precipitation extremes, in terms of direction of change and spatial distribution. For example, some models project northwest Luzon to be wetter, and Mindanao island to be drier, which would have serious impacts on these vulnerable agricultural regions.

Keywords: climate extremes, hotspots, Philippines, CORDEX Southeast Asia


C1-P-11

EvaluationofthenumericalmodelwithCORDEXRegionalClimateModelsforheavyprecipitationintheMeghnaBasinregion

MohanKumarDas,InstituteofWaterandFloodManagement(IWFM),BUET,Dhaka,Bangladesh,Bangladesh

MohanKumarDas,InstituteofWaterandFloodManagement(IWFM),BUET,Dhaka,Bangladesh,Bangladesh;A.K.M.SaifulIslam,InstituteofWaterandFloodManagement(IWFM),BUET,Dhaka,Bangladesh,Bangladesh;Md.JamalUddinKhan,LEGOS,UniversitédeToulouse,CNES,CNRS,IRD,

UPS,Toulouse,France

Predictionofheavyprecipitation(HP)inducedfloodincidentsischallengingwhentheyhappenonthehighterrainofMeghalayaPlateauandnearbyareas. ImprovingthesimulationofthePre-monsoon(March-May)mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is important as such events routinely result inrainstorms,flashflood,floodingeventsandsignificantlossof livesandpropertiesoverBangladesh,Indianeastern,northeasternregionandneighborhood.TheinfluxofmoisturefromtheBayofBengal(BoB) energizes these rainstorms systems as it passes over Meghalaya and northern parts ofBangladesh and thus produces heavy convective and stratiform rain over Meghalaya and thesurroundingareas.Althoughextremeprecipitationandrunoffaretherootcausesoftheflashflood,the stretches of valley and highland plateaus of Indo-Bangla region play an important role in theweathersystemduetoitsextraordinarygeographyandclimate.ThevalleyandplateausofIndo-Banglaregionisthewettestplaceonplanetearth.ItisimportanttopredictheavyprecipitationpreciselyforassessingfloodsandflashfloodovertheregionoftheMeghnabasin.Theglobalprecipitationproductsarehelpful forunderstanding rainfall patternover adata scare region. For the regional study, themesoscale numericalmodel Advanced Research version of theWeather Research and Forecasting(WRF-ARW) isusedforestimatingheavyprecipitation inafinerresolutionfortheHPeventofpre-monsoon season 2004, 2010, 2016 and 2017. Sensitivity analyses of different parameterizationschemesareappliedinthisstudy.Themodelsimulatedprecipitationisassessedwiththeavailableraingauge observation along with India Meteorological Department (IMD) Global PrecipitationMeasurement (GPM)missionmerged datasets. The best and worst performing parameterizationscombination schemes are identified after doing statistical analyses. In the study, theWRFmodelsimulatedprecipitationareevaluatedwiththeCoordinatedRegionalClimateDownscalingExperiment(CORDEX)modelsdataforabetterunderstandingofregionalanalysis.Tounderstandtheinfluencemodelgridresolution,globaltoregional(g2r-1:3)andglobaltoconvection-permitting(g2c-1:9)scaleratiosaretestedinthepresentstudy.

Keywords: Heavy precipitation, flood, Parameterization, WRF ARW, CORDEX models


C1-P-12

EPICC–across-sectoralandcross-regionalintercomparisonofclimateimpactsandadaptationoptions

StephanieGleixner,PotsdamInstituteforClimateImpactResearch,Germany

StephanieGleixner,HolgerHoff,PotsdamInstituteforClimateImpactResearch,Germany;SaurabhBhardwaj,TheEnergyandResourcesInstitute,India;StefanLange,PotsdamInstituteforClimate

ImpactResearch,Germany

Theimpactsofclimatechangeandaccordinglyadaptationoptionsvarystronglyregionallyandhavetobeassessedcontext-specifically.TheEastAfrica -Peru - IndiaClimateCapacities (EPICC)projectinvestigatestheseimpactsforthreetropicalcountries-Tanzania,Peru,India-thatdifferstronglyfromeachotherintermsofgeographyaswellastheirvulnerabilitytoachangingclimate.Indialoguewithpartners frompolicymaking, theprivatesector,civil societyandscience,EPICChas identified localdemandsforclimatechangeimpactassessmentsandfortestingadaptationoptions.

Based on observations, global climate projections as well as high-resolution regional climateprojectionsfromCORDEX,weinvestigatetheseclimatechangeimpactsandadaptionoptionsacrossdifferent sectors. Climate data from the CORDEX simulationswill be bias-adjusted and statisticallydownscaledtothelocalleveltoallowforlocalanalyseswithparticularfocusonextremeevents.Thesehigh-resolutionclimatesimulationsprovidethebasisforassessmentsfortheagriculturalaswellasthehydrologicalsector,usingasuiteofstatisticalandprocess-basedimpactmodels.

Results feed into assessments of migration in the context of climate change, primarily internalmigration related to changes in subsistence agriculture productivity. This project enablesintercomparisons of regional studies across different sectors and different tropical locations andcontexts, using the same approaches, models and statistical tools, always focusing on local user-demands.

Keywords: climate adaption, climate impacts, cross-sectorial


C1-P-13

Extremewinterprecipitationvs.modelresolutionacrosstheUpperMississippiRiverValley

WilliamGutowski,IowaStateUniversity,UnitedStates

WilliamGutowski,JacobSpender,RaymondArritt,IowaStateUniversity,UnitedStates;MelissaBukovsky,NCAR,UnitedStates

AswecontinuetoseeanincreaseinextremeprecipitationanomaliesduringwintermonthsacrosstheUnitedStates,itisimportanttofocusonhowtosimulatebettertheseevents.Theseeventscancausesubstantialfloodingthatcanseverelyerodesoilandweakenenergy-transmissioninfrastructure.Onewaytobetterunderstandandsimulatetheseextremeprecipitationeventsistoassesshowresolutioninregionalclimatemodelsaffectsprocessesleadingtoextremeprecipitation.Duringwintermonths,synopticdynamicsplayan important role inextremeprecipitationeventsandshouldbe fairlywellresolvedinregionalclimatemodels.

Thisstudyfocusesonextremesub-dailyprecipitationintheUpperMississippiRiverValleyduringthemonthsofDecember, January, andFebruary (DJF). Weanalyzeextreme,6-hourlyprecipitationassimulatedbyRegCM4andWRFusingERA-Interimboundaryconditionsfortheperiod2002through2012atgridspacingsof12,25and50km.Wecomparecompositesofsimulated6-hourlyextremeevents with those occurring in NOAA Stage IV quantitative precipitation for the same period. Inaddition,wecomparecomposite6-hourlyfieldsof2mtemperature,500hPageopotentialheight,10mwind,and2mspecifichumidityforthesimulatedeventswithcompositesofthesamefieldsduringStageIVevents,usingtheNorthAmericanRegionalReanalysis.WeevaluatehowchangingresolutioninthetwomodelsaffectstheintensityofextremeeventsversusStageIVeventsaswellashowthecirculationandthermodynamicsoftheeventschangeswithresolution,highlightingfactorsaremostsensitivetoresolutionandtheirimpactonreplicatingobservedbehavior.

Keywords: Extreme precipitation, model resolution


C1-P-14

ClimatechangeimpactsonhydrologyandwaterresourcesofUpperAwashSub-Basin,Ethiopia

MekonnenDaba,InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA),ChineseAcademyofAgriculturalSciences(CAAS),Beijing,China

MekonnenDaba,InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA),ChineseAcademyofAgriculturalSciences(CAAS),Beijing,China,China;KassaTadele,TransportConstructionDesignS.Company,AddisAbaba,Ethiopia,Ethiopia;AndualemShiferaw,National

DroughtMitigationCenter,SchoolofNaturalResources,UniversityofNebraska-Lincoln,USA,UnitedStates;XixiWang,DepartmentofCivilEngineering,OldDominionUniversity,VA,USA,UnitedStates;SongcaiYou,InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA),Chinese

AcademyofAgriculturalSciences(CAAS),Beijing,China,China;AssefaMelesse,DepartmentofEarthandEnvironment,FloridaInternationalUniversity,Miami,FL,USA,UnitedStates

TheAwashRiverbasinisthemostirrigatedareainEthiopiafacingcriticalwaterresourcesdegradationduetoclimatechange.Climatechangealtersregionalhydrologicconditionsimpactingwaterresourcesystems.Suchhydrologicchangeswillaffectalmosteveryaspectofhumanwell-being.AgricultureisthemainstayofEthiopianeconomy.Thegrowingpopulationandeffortstomeetthefoodsecurityofthecountrywillcallforexpandingirrigationontopoftherain-fedagriculturewhichinturnwilldependonavailablefreshwaterresources.Asthemostirrigatedbasininthecountry,theavailabilityofwaterintheAwashRiverbasinhasdeclinedbecauseoftheincreasedwaterabstractionsforvarioususes.ThemainobjectiveofthisstudyistoassesstheimpactsofclimatechangeonsurfacewateravailabilityofUpperAwashRiverBasinbyusingSoilandWaterAssessmentTool(SWAT)hydrologicalmodelandRegionalClimateModel (RCM).Regional climatemodel (ECHAM5withA1Bemissionscenario)andmeteorologicalvariablesatlocalscalewereappliedforthreetimeperiods(2020s,2050sand2080s).Bias-correctionmethodshavebeenappliedtoindividualclimatevariablestoadjustRCMdata.RCMsbias correctionmethodswas used for scenario generation to estimate average changes in annualtemperature and rainfall. The bias correction approach applied in this study gave the reasonableresults. SWATwas calibrated and validated to simulate future hydrologic variables in response tochanges inprecipitationandtemperature.Theresultsofcalibrationandvalidationmodel indicatedthatSWATsimulatedmonthlyflowwell.ThiswasshowedbytheNash-Sutcliffesimulationefficiency(ENS)andCoefficientofdetermination(R2),whichwere0.80and0.85forthecalibrationand0.78and0.83forthevalidation,respectively.Theresultsshowedthattheprojectedclimatechangescenarioincreaseinrainfall forthetimeperiodof2020s,whereasreducesinrainfall forthetimeperiodsof2050sand2080sandtheprojectedtemperaturesincreaseforallthreetimeperiods.TheSWATmodelresultsshowthattheannualstreamflowofUpperAwashSub-Basinwasreducedby2.46%and18.14%in2050sand2080s,respectively,whilethestreamflowincreasedin2020sby4.90%forA1Bscenario.Thesimulatedflowat2050sand2080s,withA1BscenariofromRCM,showedreductionofrunoffby1.52% and 3.50%, respectively in the Sub-Basin and it was directly related to the reduction inprecipitation,while theannual runoff increases in2020sby8%.Thus,precipitationbeingthemaindriverinthewaterbalancecomputation,itsvariabilitybothannuallyandseasonallyhasadirectimpactontheothersimulatedwaterbudgetcomponents.Modelresultshowedthatabout44.36%ofannualrainfallcontributestostreamflowassurfacerunoff.Generally,theresultsrevealedthatchangesinclimatic variables, such as reduction in rainfall and change in both minimum and maximum

temperaturewouldhaveasignificantimpactonthestreamflowandsurfacerunoff,causingapossiblereductiononthetotalwateravailabilityintheSub-Basin.TheresultsobtainedinthisstudycanprovideusefulinformationforfuturewaterresourceplanningandmanagementinthefaceofclimatechangeintheupperAwashBasin.Itisconcludedthatfutureclimatechangebytheendofthe21stcenturyaremostlikelytoproducesignificantimpactsonthesurfacerunoffandstreamflow.

Keywords: A1B Emission Scenario, Climate Change, RCM, Hydrology, Water Resource


C1-P-15

Spatiotemporaldynamicsofrainfall,temperature,andvegetationgreennessforDhidhessaRiverBasin,Ethiopia

GizachewKabite,EthiopianSpaceScienceandTechnologyInstitute,Ethiopia

GizachewKabite,EthiopianSpaceScienceandTechnologyInstitute,Ethiopia;MisganaMuleta,CaliforniaPolytechnicStateUniversity,UnitedStates;BerhanGessesse,EthiopiaSpaceScienceand

TechnologyInstitute,Ethiopia;SifanKoriche,ReadingUniversity,UnitedKingdom

Understandingthespatiotemporaldynamicsbetweenclimatevariablesandvegetationgreennesscanbebeneficialtodesignclimatechangeadaptationstrategies.However,suchastudyislackinginmanybasinsofEthiopia.Theobjectiveof thisstudywastoanalyzethepastandfuturetemperatureandrainfalltrends,anddeterminetheirspatialrelationshipwithvegetationgreenness,characterizedusingNormalizedDifferenceinVegetationIndex(NDVI),fortheDhidhessaRiverbasin.Qualitycheckedhighspatialresolutionsatellitedatasetswereusedforthestudy.Mann-KendalltestandSen’sslopemethodwereusedforthetrendanalysis.Thespatial relationshipbetweenclimatedynamicsandNDVIwasanalyzedusingGeographicallyWeightedRegression(GWR)technique.PastandfutureclimatetrendanalysisgenerallyshowedwettingandwarmingfortheDhidhessaRiverbasinwherethedegreeoftrendsvariesfordifferenttimeandspatialscales.Aseasonalshiftinrainfallwasalsoobservedforthebasin.Thesefindings informedthattherewillbenegative impactonrain-fedagricultureandwateravailabilityinthebasin.NDVItrendsanalysisshowedsignificantincreasingtrendsfordryseasonandannualtimescalesanddecreasingtrendforthemainrainyseason.Spatially,asignificantincreaseinNDVItrendwasobservedonlyforthewarmmoistclimaticzone.TheincreasingNDVItrendscouldbeduetoagroforestrypracticesbutdoesnotnecessarilyindicateimprovedforestcoverageinthebasin.AdecliningNDVIduringthemainrainseasonindicatesexpansionofagriculturallandbyclearingforestand shrubland. The NDVI dynamics is positively correlated to rainfall (r2=0.62) and negativelycorrelated tominimum (r2=0.58) andmaximum (r2=0.45) temperature. The study revealed stronginteractionbetween the climate variables and vegetation for thebasin that further influences thebiophysical terrestrial processes like hydrologic responses of a basin. This study provides helpfulinformationtodeviceclimatechangeadaptationstrategiesatlocalscales.

Keywords: Spatiotemporal climate dynamics, Vegetation greenness, Mann-Kendall test, Sen’s slope method, Dhidhessa River basin


C1-P-16

UsingCORDEXdatatoestimatefuturehydro-ecologicalconditionsinNorth-WesternBlackSeacoast

ValeriyKhokhlov,OdessaStateEnvironmentalUniversity,Ukraine

ValeriyKhokhlov,YuriiTuchkovenko,LarisaNedostrelova,OdessaStateEnvironmentalUniversity,Ukraine

Thefuturehydro-ecologicalconditionsinsmallwatershedsofSouthernUkrainewereestimatedusingthe outcomes from the CORDEX Project – the 14 runs of 5 regional climatemodels (RCM). In thenearestfuture,2021–2050,therisingtemperature(about0.8°Cper30years)andsteadyprecipitation(~470mmperyear)during2021-2050inSouthernUkrainewillbeprobablyobserved.Let’snotethatprecipitationwillusuallydecrease inUkraineandthesouthernregion isratheranexceptiontotherule. In this Figure, we can see (i) changeable increase of temperature and a sharp decrease ofprecipitation during the 2023-26; (ii) sharp increase of temperature following a decrease ofprecipitation during the 2028-31; and (iii) sharp decrease of temperature against the steadyprecipitationbackgroundduring2037-40.Weusedthestandardizedprecipitationevapotranspirationindex(SPEI)toinvestigatespatiotemporaldroughtsvariabilitycausedbyclimatechange.TheSPEIisthemulti-scalardrought indexandallowsdetermining theonset,durationandseverityofdroughtconditionsondifferenttimescales.Itiscommonpracticetoassessthehydrologicaldroughtsonthetimescale13–24months.Theanalysisofnearest-futureSPEI timeseriesshowedthat thetrendtodrierconditionswillbeexpectedinNorth-WesternBlackSeacoast–thenextlongandseveredroughtscanberegisteredabout2025andafter2030.Moreover,wecanexpectinalllikelihoodthattheperiod2031-2040willbedriest,anddurationofdroughtinthatregionwillbeafewyears.WealsoconsideredaconnectionbetweentimeseriesoftheSPEIonthe24-monthtimescaleandannualrunoffonafewhydrologicalsitesinsomesmallwatersheds.ThetemporalfeaturesofwaterflowchangesareincloseagreementwiththeSPEI24duringthenearestfuture–allyearswithhighwaterflowswereregisteredduringthewetyears,i.e.theabsenceofatmosphericdroughts.

Keywords: Termperature, Droughts, Runoff


C1-P-17

Ananalysisoftheabnormalfloodanditsimpactonenvironmentandsocio-economicconditionsinKerala

ShadanananNairKrishnapillai,CentreforEarthResearchandEnvironmentManagement,India

ClimatechangeanditsimpactareevidentintheStateofKeralainIndia.InAugust2018,abnormallyheavymonsoonrainsleadtotheworstfloodinginacentury,killingaround500peopleandthousandsof livestock, displacing one million people and damaging 50000 housed, roads and otherinfrastructures.EstimatedlossesamounttomorethanUS$3billion.Seasonalrainfallwas42%abovenormalandrainfallduring1to19Augustwas164%abovenormal.Around414mmrainfalloccurredduringAugust15-17,whichledtosevereflooding.Steepslopesanddestructionofwetlandsaddedtoits severity. All 39major dams had reached their full reservoir level by the end of July, andwereincapableofabsorbingthetorrentialvolumesinAugust.Afterflood,surfacewaterbodies,especiallyriversaredryingupfastbecauseofabnormal landslidesandsedimentation.Around8to10%ofallreservoirswerealreadyfilledwithsandbecauseofdeforestationandurbanization.Asaresultofthelossofsurfacesoilandfailureofnortheastmonsoon,groundwaterlevelinthestatefellby3metresandthestateexperiencedseriouswatercrisis in thebeginningof2019 itself.Destructionofcheckdamsanderosionanddeepeningofriversallowfastflowofgroundwatertowardsthesea.Decreaseinrunoffnowpermitssalinityintrusionfarinland.Statewasnotpreparedtocopewiththeunexpectedsituationandfloodinitiatedseveralsocio-economicissuessuchasshortageofreliablewater,hikingpriceoffoodandwater,conflictsoverallocation,spreadofcontagiousdiseasesandlargeinvestmentto rebuild infrastructure and rehabilitate the displaced population. This study analyses thehydrometeorologicalextremesinKeraladuring2018,trendsinextremesandtheirimpactsondifferentfacetsoflife.Resultsshowanincreasingtrendinextremesinnearfuture.Guidelinesfordevelopingabetterclimatepolicyandadaptationstrategyhavebeenprovided.

Keywords: Climate change, Kerala, flood, socio-economic, adapation


C1-P-18

Numericalsimulationofsynoptictoquasi-biweeklydisturbancesinvolvedinthesummer2003heavyrainfallinEastChina

HongboLiu,LASG,InstituteofAtmosphericPhysics,China

During theMeiyu season of summer 2003, the Yangtze andHuai River Basin (YHRB) encounteredanomalouslyheavyrainfall,andthenorthernYHRB(nYHRB)sufferedaseverefloodbecauseoffivecontinuousextremerainfallevents.A spectralanalysisofdaily rainfalldataoverYHRB reveals twodominantfrequencymodes:onepeakonday14andtheotheronday4,i.e.,thequasi-biweeklyandsynoptic-scalemode, respectively.Results indicate that the two scalesofdisturbances contributedsouthwesterly and northeasterly anomalies, respectively, to the Meiyu frontal convergence oversouthernYHRB(sYHRB)atthepeakwetphase.Thepassagesoffivesynoptic-scaledisturbancesfinallyled to thesevere floodingover thenYHRBregion. In this study,a29-day (June15– July13,2003)regionalclimatesimulationisconductedusingtheWeatherResearchandForecast(WRF)model.Thesimulationreproducesreasonablywellthespatialdistributionandtemporalevolutionoftherainfalloverbothregions,especiallythefrequentheavyrainfalleventsoverthenYHRBregions.Inaddition,boththequasi-biweeklyandsynoptic-scaledisturbancesareclearinthesimulationresults,whichwellmatchtherawsimulatedrainfallpeaks.

Keywords: synoptic to quasi-biweekly disturbances,heavy rainfall,numerical simulation


C1-P-19

FeaturesofspatiotemporaldistributionandmanagementissuesofdangerousmeteorologicalphenomenaontheterritoryoftheRepublicofArmenia

VarduhiMargaryan,YerevanStateUniversity.FacultyofGeographyandGeology.DepartmentofPhysicalGeographyandHydrometeorology.,Armenia

Dangerous meteorological or heliogeographysical phenomena (dangerous phenomena) are natural phenomena arising in the atmosphere and hydrosphere that are dangerous for the life, health and property of the population by their importance, intensity duration or time of occurrence, and can cause significant material damage to different branches of the economy. Dangerous meteorological phenomena are those that can or have already led to natural disasters and emergencies.

Statistics show that the number of human casualties and material losses due to hazardous meteorological phenomena is growing. In recent decades, the number of dangerous phenomena and their climatic extremes has also increased, and the zone of their impact has increased. Dangerous meteorological phenomena ca also intensify or contribute to other disasters, for example, the spread of infectious diseases, desertification, the accumulation of toxic gases in the atmosphere, the invasion of locusts, radiation accidents and so on. So their observations and studies are very important for research, weather forecasts, as well as for the correct and effective organization and development of works of a wide range of sectors of the economy. Consequently, the purpose of this work: to discuss and analyze the dynamics of changes in the hazardous meteorological phenomena of the study area, the patterns of spatial distribution to assess the vulnerability and risk of the territory of the republic in relation to hazardous dangerous phenomena.

For the solution of the tasks the theoretical basis was the relevant scientific and research works. As a source material, actual observations data of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Republic of Armenia “Service for Hydrometeorology and active influence on atmospheric phenomena” and the data of the RA National Statistical Service have been used. In the work methods are applied: geographic, general scientific, characteristics, statistical, analysis and correlation.

We note that more than 100 natural hazards and dangerous phenomena inherent in the territory of Armenia can be identified about 10, the most frequently recurring. These include: earthquakes, landslides, mudslides, floods, destruction, fall of stones, thunderstorms, hail, high groundwater level, forest fires and so on.

As a result of the research it was found out that in the republic there are different trends in the change of dangerous meteorological phenomena, different degrees of vulnerability to this or that dangerous phenomena. Thus, it is necessary to create a database of dangerous meteorological phenomena and make it accessible to the population, to develop and implement a local detailed study of hazardous meteorological phenomena, to hold frequent meetings with the public, to conduct a sociological survey among the general population, to develop mechanisms for effective management policies.

Keywords: dangerous meteorological phenomena,spatiotemporal distribution,change,management


C1-P-20

MethodofcalculationofmaximumrunoffofspringfloodforungaugedriverscasestudytheDesnariverbasin

ValeriyaOvcharuk,OdessaStateEnvironmentalUniversity,Ukraine

ValeriyaOvcharuk,SvetlanaIvashchenko,OdessaStateEnvironmentalUniversity,Ukraine

Allmodernmethodsusedtocalculatetherunoffofrivers,bothinUkraineandabroad,arebasedontheassumptionofthestationarynatureoftheformationofalong-termannualrunoff.Itisbelievedthat thedesignvalueofwaterdischarges therareprobabilityofexeedance,obtainedbystatisticalprocessingoverthepastyears,willremainthesameinthefuture.Butatthepresentstagethereisalready a statistical non-stationarity of hydrometeorological processes, which is confirmed byinstrumentallywarmingoftheclimate.

As the calculatedmethodused amodified version of the operatormodel, that allows considering"climateamendment"forthemaximumsnowsupplies,precipitationandrunoffcoefficientsduringtheflood.

Themodifiedvariantoftheoperatormodeltakesintoaccounttheprocessofthetransformationofthe slope influx in to channel runoff through two transformation functions and is proposed as acalculationmethodfordeterminingontheplainterritoryofUkrainethemaximumrunoffduringthespringperiodforungaugedrivers.

TheproposedvariantofdeterminingthemaximumrunoffofspringfloodisimplementedfortheriversoftheDesnabasin.ConsiderationofpossibleclimatechangeismadeusingthedataoftheregionalclimatemodelRACMO2andscenariosRCP4.5andRCP8.5.Analyzingtheresultsobtained,itshouldbenotedthattheresultsarenotsignificantlydifferent,namely,intheRCP4.5scenario,itisforecastedbythedecreaseofthemaximummodulesofspringfloodresourcesby2050atthelevelof5-10%,andinthemorerigorousscenario(RCP8.5)-10-15%.

Keywords: spring flood, ungauged rivers, scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5


C1-P-21

Scientificandmethodologicalapproachestotakingintoaccounttheinfluenceofclimatechangeontheminimumriversrunoff

ValeriyaOvcharuk,OdessaStateEnvironmentalUniversity,Ukraine

ValeriyaOvcharuk,LiliaKyschenko,OlenaTodorova,OdessaStateEnvironmentalUniversity,Ukraine

Inordertoaccountforclimatechangesincalculationsofmaximumrunoff,theauthorhadproposedto introduce"climatecorrections"tothecalculatedvaluesofmaximumwaterdischarges.Asimilarapproach can be applied to theminimum runoff of rivers. Such research was carried out on theexample of the Transcarpathian rivers. If we have the predicted values of air temperature andprecipitation,forexampleduringawarmperiod,andthedependenceofthesevaluesonthepresentdayontheelevation(becauseitthemountainregion),“climatecorrections”canbeintroducedtothevaluesoftheminimumrunoffinthefuture.

Withpurposetoobtainthecalculatingequationsofrelationbetweentheminimumrunoffandthepredictedvaluesoftemperatureandprecipitation,ontheonehand,andlocalfactorsrunoffontheother, themethodofmultiple linearregressions isapplied.Aspredictors,allavailablefactorswereused, namely: average annual air temperature, rainfall for cold and warm periods of the year,latitudinalcoordinates,catchmentarea,forestarea,length,andslopeofrivers.Theaverageheightofthecatchmentwasnotusedinthecalculations,becauseitsinfluenceisrepresentedbythecalculatedvaluesoftemperatureandprecipitation.Themostoptimalequationswerefurtherusedtodeterminethepredictedvaluesoftheminimumrunoffunderdifferentscenarios.

Another possible option considering the impact of climatic changes onminimal rivers runoff is itsinterconnection with the drought index, for example, SPEI. The time series of the SPEI index ondifferentscalesforthesteppezoneofUkraine,inparticularforthebasinoftheSouthernBugRiver,were analyzed for the period 1950-2010. Estimation of the statistical connection between SPEI atdifferenttimescalesanddifferentphasesoftheriverflowoftheSouthernBugRiverduringtheperiod1950-2010showedthattheobtaineddependenciesaresignificant,whichopensupthepossibilityofusingtheindexofdroughtinthemodellingofhydrologicalprocessesinthesteppezoneofUkraine.

Keywords: minimal runoff, climate change, drought index


C1-P-22

CapturingCo-BehaviorModesinCORDEXregionalclimatemodelsoverSouthernAfrica

KwesiQuagraine,ClimateSystemAnalysisGroup,UniversityofCapeTown,SouthAfrica

KwesiQuagraine,BruceHewitson,ChristopherJack,IzidinePinto,ChristopherLennard,PiotrWolski,ClimateSystemAnalysisGroup,UniversityofCapeTown,SouthAfrica;GrigoryNikulin,

SMHI,Sweden

Weexaminehowco-behaviorofclimateprocessesisrepresentedinCORDEXregionalclimatemodels.Co-behaviordoesplayacrucial role inhowtheregionalclimateofsouthernAfrica is influencedasestablishedinourearlierresearch.Self-OrganizingMap(SOM)techniqueisusedtoclassifycirculationpatternsovertheregion.Inordertoidentifystronglyassociatedpatternsacrossthedatatoexplorehowidentifiedsynoptictypesrelatetotheco-behaviorofthreeimportantlarge-scaledrivers;ElNiñoSouthernOscillation(ENSO),AntarcticOscillation(AAO)andInter-TropicalConvergenceZone(ITCZ),avarimax rotatedPrincipal ComponentAnalysis (PCA) is employedand the statistical significanceofthese patterns are determined by bootstrapping. The nature of co-behavior in CORDEXmodels inrelation to already identified co-behavior modes from observation dataset is assessed. We thenexploreregionalprecipitationandsurface temperatureresponse to thesemodesofco-behavior toimproveregionalclimateunderstanding.

Keywords: regional climate models, large-scale processes, co-behavior


C1-P-23

RainfallandtemperaturescenariosoverBangladeshbasedonRCPscenariosusingRegCM

Md.MizanurRahman,SunwaySchoolandCollege,Dhaka,Bangladesh

Md.MizanurRahman,Md.NazrulIslam,SunwaySchoolandCollege,Dhaka,Bangladesh

Rainfallandsurfacetemperaturearethemostimportantclimaticvariablesinthecontextofclimatechange. Thus, these variables simulated from ICTP RegCM models have been compared againstobserved (raingauge) data and projected for the middle of twenty first century under theRepresentativeConcentrationPathway(RCP)4.5emissionscenario.ThroughcalibrationandvalidationofRegCMwasadaptedforBangladeshforgeneratingrainfallandtemperaturescenarios.ThemodelgeneratedrainfallwascalibratedwithgroundbasedobserveddatainBangladeshduringtheperiodof1981-2000.BetterperformanceofRegCMobtainedthroughvalidationprocessincreasedconfidenceinutilizingitinthefuturerainfallandtemperatureprojectionforBangladesh.Rainfall,maximumandminimumsurfaceairtemperatureprojectionforBangladeshIsexperimentallyobtainedfortheperiodof2041-2060.Thiswork finds that theRegCMsimulatedRainfall and temperaturearenotdirectlyuseful inapplicationpurpose.However,aftervalidationandcalibration,acceptableperformance isobtained in estimating annual rainfall and maximum and minimum surface air temperature inBangladesh.Changeofrainfallisprojectedabout-1.2percentinpre-monsoon(MAM),-1.4percentinmonsoonseason(JJAS),1.90percentinpost-monsoonSeason(ON)and0.46percentinwinterseason(DJF) during the period of 2041-2060. Similarly, change of maximum and minimum surface airtemperatureisprojectedabout1.4and1.5degreesCelsiusforthesameperiod.

Keywords: Rainfall forecast, temperature forecast, climate change, calibration, validation


C1-P-24

ImpactofregionalclimatemodelprojectedchangesonmaizeyieldoverSouthernIndia

SenthilnathanSamiappan,TamilNaduAgriculturalUniversity,India

SenthilnathanSamiappan,TamilNaduAgriculturalUniversity,India;AnnamalaiHariharasubramanian,InternationalPacificResearchCenter,UnitedStates;PrasannaVenkatraman,

PukyongNationalUniversity,Busan,RepublicofKorea,India;HafnerJan,InternationalPacificResearchCenter,UnitedStates

MaizeisoneofthemajorcerealsgrowninsouthernstateofTamilNadu,Indiaandproducesabout1.2million toneswhich contribute 14percent to total cereal production in TamilNadu. Therewas anincreasingdemandformaizegrainsforpoultryfeedandalsoforhumanconsumptionduetostructuralchangesofconsumptionpattern.InTamilNadu,about43precentofcroppingareaunderrainfedandnearly 40 percent ofmaize production comes from rainfed regions. Presently, globalwarminghasbecome a great challenge for the agrarian economy of India. Among various factors, maize yielddependsonthevagariesassociatedwithrainfallandsurfacetemperature.Thesetwoprimaryclimatevariablesareexpectedtochangeinawarmerclimate.Tounderstandtheprojectedmonsoonchangesimpact on maize production is carried out by performing high-resolution regional model climatesimulations(IPRC_RegCM)withmultiplelateralforcing,andtheclimatevariablesfromregionalmodelserveas input intoeconomicmodel.Topredictthe impactofclimatechangeonmaizeyield inthefuture, we used the coefficients of Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) data and EuropeanReanalysisInterim(Era-Interim)dataasbaselineandpredictedthecurrentyield.Theprojectionstakenfrom CCSM4 (Community Climate System Model) forced high-resolution regional model climatesimulationsandcomputedtheclimatechangeimpactsonmaizeyield.ThispaperpredictsthemaizeyieldfortheRCP6.0scenarioundertheCCSM4modelbyemployingthepaneldataregressionmodel.Themodelestimatestheimpactofmaizeyieldisprojectedtodecreaseby11and23percentfortheIMDandEra-Interimreanalysisdatarespectivelyduringendofthe21stcentury.However,wehavecomparedtheIMDmaizeyieldprojectionswithERA-Interimreanalysesoutputswhichisalsoaproxyforobservations,boththemodelsprojectsinsimilartrendgivesmoreconfidenceandpreciseestimateonourprojections.

Keywords: Climate change impact, Maize yield, Southern India


C1-P-25

UnderstandingprecipitationextremesoverCORDEXSouthAsia:Aregionalearthsystemmodelassessment

DmitrySein,P.P.ShirshovInstituteofOceanology,RussianFed

DmitrySein,P.P.ShirshovInstituteofOceanology,RussianFed;PankajKumar,2IndianInstituteofScienceEducationandResearch,India;VladimirRyabchenko,P.P.ShirshovInstituteofOceanology,

RussianFed-

The impactofclimatechangewillbemainlyfeltthroughchanges inthe intensityandfrequencyofextremeeventsratherthanchangesinmeanclimate.Itisexpectedthatprecipitationextremeswillenhanceovertropicsinthe21stcentury.WithintheCORDEXSouthAsiaframework,ahigh-resolutionRegional Earth System Model is used to understand the precipitation extremes over south Asiafocusingondifferenthomogeneousregions,aswellasthefuturereturnperiodfrequencyandintensityofextremeeventswillbepresentedwithuncertaintyassessment.

We use a high-resolution regional coupled model setup, which will comprise of the Max PlanckInstitute Ocean Model, including sea ice, and the Hamburg Ocean Carbon Cycle model(MPIOM/HAMOCC)iscoupledviaOASIScouplertotheRegionalatmosphereModel(REMO),andtheHydrologicalDischargemodel(HD).Thissystemhasthedistinctivefeaturethatitsglobaloceanmoduleprovidesthepossibilitytoreducethegridsizeintheregionofinteresttoprovidehighresolutionthereandnottosetthelateralboundaryconditionsintheocean.

HistoricalandclimatechangesimulationswereperformedtounderstandandanalyzevariousaspectsofextremeeventconditionsinIndiaalongwiththestudyofIndianOceanbiogeochemistry,includingphytoplanktonblooms,(focusingontheBayofBengal)and,particularly,climatechangeinfluenceonsea surface temperature (SST)which stronglyeffects Indianmonsoonsandcorrespondingextremeevents.

Keywords: Regional Modeling, South Asia, Climate change, Extreme events


C1-P-26

ModernspatiotemporaldistributionofsquallsontheterritoryofUkraine


InnaSemenova,HelenaHelenaNashmudinova,OdessaStateEnvironmentalUniversity,Ukraine

AccordingtolaststudiesinUkraine,sincethe1990sthereisageneralincreaseinnumberandintensityof weather phenomena associated with the convection development. Squall is a strong windcharacterizedbyasuddenonset,durationoftheorderofminutesandaccompaniedbychangesinitsdirection.TheUkrainianmeteoserviceusethenextcriteriaofasquall:firsthazardlevelwithawindspeedof15-24m/s;astrongsquallwithawindspeedof25-34m/s;andanextremesquallwithawindspeedmorethan35m/s.

In this study, the spatiotemporal distribution of squalls over the territory ofUkraine duringwarmperiodof2013-2018wasanalyzed.TheobservationsdataatthemeteorologicalstationsinallregionsofUkrainewereused.Duringthestudyperiod384casesofsquallsofvaryingintensitywererecorded.Squallsofthefirsthazardlevelareprevailed(91%).Strongsquallswereobservedin15casesandonlyone squall reachedanextremecriterion.This squallwithawind speedof40m/swas recorded inHenicheskon29June2013.Mostofstrongsquallsoccurredinairmassesunderconditionsofthermalconvection,andanextremesquallformedonthecoldfront.Intheannualdistribution,themaximumof133casesofsquallswereobservedin2013.Intheotheryears,thetotalnumberofsquallsvariedbetween 30-70 cases per year. Themaximum frequency of squalls is in the summermonths. Theearliestandlatestsquallswererecordedin2017onApril3andonOctober29,respectively.Thelargestnumberofsquallswasobservedinthesouthernregions(24%ofallcases),mostofthem(18%)wereintheOdessaregion.TheleastfrequencyofsquallsisinthewesternpartofUkraine.ComparisonofthefrequencyofsquallsinUkrainewiththebaseperiod1961-1990showedthatinthewesternpartofthecountrythenumberofsquallcasesdecreased.Intheotherregions,thenumberofsquallshasincreasedsignificantly,andintheOdessaregionalmostdoubled.

Keywords: squall, wind speed, convection phenomenon


C1-P-27

Featuresoftheregionalatmosphericcirculation,leadingtoformationofdrywindsinUkraine

Withdrawal


InnaSemenova,MariaSlizhe,OdessaStateEnvironmentalUniversity,Ukraine

Dry and hot wind named as “sukhovey” is a widespread high impact phenomenon, which reduces the crop yields in Ukraine. According to criteria of the Ukrainian meteoservice dry wind is fix, if at least in one term of observation values of three meteorological parameters simultaneously amounts: air temperature 25°C and higher, wind speed at 10 m height is 5 m/s and more, and the relative air humidity is 30% or lower.

The aim of the study is to determine the synoptic conditions that led to formation of dry winds in Ukraine during the period 1995-2015.

According to observations from 24 stations of Ukraine for in all agroclimatic zones maximum frequency of dry winds observed in August: from 129 days in Steppe to 21 days in Mixed Forests. Analysis of high-level pressure fields shown that during dry wind period over Europe a meridional atmospheric circulation is establish. The upper-level trough is under Western Europe and upper-level ridge prevailed under Eastern Europe.

Analysis of HYSPLIT backward trajectories shown that at the SLP air flows from the north-east, west and east have the equal frequencies (19-20%). In 16% cases relatively short trajectories formed directly over Ukraine. At the level of 1500 m flows from the west have most frequency (30% cases). The flows from north-west, north and east directions are observed in half of all cases. At the level of 3000 m air particles trajectories from the west prevailed (45% cases). Along moving trajectories the air temperature was increased at all observed levels. The largest heating was 17-23°C per 120 hours at the level of 1500 m. At the same time, downward air moving from the upper levels was observed, which led to adiabatic heating of the air mass. The assessment of lapse rate showed that, on average, it was 0.98°C/100 m in the layer of 0-1500 m and 0.68°C/100 m in the layer of 1500-3000 m. So, during the dry wind formation the lapse rates close to dry adiabatic value in the lower troposphere that leads to maximum heating and drying.

Keywords: dry wind, backward trajectory, adiabatic heating


C1-P-28

SynopticconditionsandfrequencyofheavyrainfallsinBelarus

KatsiarynaSumak,Belhydromet,Belarus

In recent decades in Belarus the question of the impact of weather conditions on the development of economic sectors and life of the population has become acute. The maximum damage to the country's economy is caused annually by very intense heavy rainfalls (67 %).

In this study it was analyzed the synoptic conditions and frequency of heavy rainfalls in Belarus during the period of 1995-2018. All cases of heavy rainfalls were divided into 3 groups: 1)very heavy showers (the amount of precipitation not less than 30 mm for a period of not more than 1h) – 26 cases; 2)very heavy rains (not less than 50 mm for a period of not more than 12h) – 309 cases and 3)prolonged very heavy rains (not less than 100 mm for a period of 12-48 h) – 22 cases.

It was found that heavy rainfаlls of all types were observed in the warm period of the year – from May to early October. The maximum number of cases occurred in the summer months – June-August (315 cases), with the largest number in July – 182 cases.

The average number of heavy rainfalls during the warm period of the year ranged mainly from 3 to 9 cases, with a maximum of 12 cases in 2006. In some years (2008, 2012, 2014-2015) their number didn’t exceed 1-2.

Trend lines showed that the frequency of intense rainfalls in the warm period decreased, but it was a positive dynamics in July during the studied period.

The active cyclonic circulation or low-gradient unstable fields caused intensive precipitation in Belarus. At night, they were mainly associated with the influence of the warm fronts near the center of surface cyclones, and in the daytime the intensity of precipitation was determined by the cold fronts with waves and severe convection.

The backward trajectories (120 h) were calculated using the HYSPLIT model. It was found that there are two main sources of air masses bringing abundant rainfalls in Belarus: the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. In rear cases the humid air masses are transported from the Atlantic region.

Keywords: rainfalls in Belarus, synoptic conditions, backward trajectories, humid air masses


C1-P-29

Intensificationofheavyprecipitationeventsincontinental-scaleclimate-changesimulationswithkilometer-scaleresolution

JesusVergara-Temprado,ETH-Zurich,Switzerland

NikolinaBan,RomanBrogli,NikoKröner,DavidLeutwyler,JesusVergara-TempradoChristophSchaer,ETH-Zuric,Switzerland

Climatemodelsandobservationsshowthatheavyprecipitationisintensifyingwithawarmerclimate,and these changes are very often put in the context of theoretical expectations from Clausius-Clapeyron relationwith regard to the (near-) surface temperature.However, the intensificationofheavyprecipitationisverysensitivetotheinvestigatedregionandmodel,andtotheanalysismethod,andthusoftenshowsdeparturesfromClausius-Clapeyronrate.

Hereweemploy ahigh-resolutionmodel at convection resolving resolutionof 2.2 kmover apan-Europeandomain,andanalyzescalingofheavyprecipitationinresponsetowarmingoverdifferentregions.Theincreaseofheavyprecipitationwithnear-surfacetemperatureinmostoftheregionsisaroundClausius-Clapeyronrate,exceptfortheBritishIsleswhereitexceedsthisrateforheavydailyandhourlyprecipitation.Weshowthatthelowertroposphere,whichcontainsthemostofmoisture,warms faster than the surface, especially over oceans. Thus it can contain more moisture thanexpectedfromtheincreaseinsurfacetemperature,andleadstoaboveClausius-Clapeyronincreaseinheavyprecipitation.These results indicate that thechanges in the surfaceprecipitationare largelycontrolledbythechanges inthetemperatureofthe lower-troposphere,andnotbychanges inthe(near-)surfacetemperature.

Keywords: heavy precipitation, convection resolving scale


C1-P-30

CanreanalysisproductswithonlysurfacevariablesassimilatedcaptureMJOcharacteristics?

LuWang,NanjingUniversityofInformationScienceandTechnology,China

TheMadden-JulianOscillation(MJO),asadominantmodeoftropicalintraseasonaloscillation,playsan important role in the variability of global weather and climate. However, current state-of-artatmospheric circulation models have difficulty in reproducing observedMJO characteristics whenforcedbyobserveddailyseasurfacetemperaturealone.AnimportantpracticalquestionishowmuchdataamodelneedsinassimilationinordertoreproducerealMJOevents?ByanalyzingERA-20CandNOAA-20CRreanalysisdata,theauthorstriedtofigureoutwhetheramodelcouldreproduceobservedMJOeventsbyassimilatingtheobservedsurfacesignalalone.

The phase propagation and vertical structure associated with MJO were compared between thereanalysis data and observations during 1979-2010. A total skill score considering both temporalcorrelationandspatialstandarddeviationweredefined.TheresultshowedthatbothERA-20CandNOAA-20CRcouldreproducetheobservedMJOcharacteristicsverywell,withtheformersuperiortothelatter,regardlessofMJOintensity.Thus,aminimumrequirementforanoperationalatmosphericmodelforMJOpredictionistheassimilationoftheobservedsurfacesignals.

Keywords: MJO, Reanalysis data, data assimilation


C1-P-31

Evaluationoftheeffectsofamultiphysicsensembleonthesimulationofanextremelyhotsummerin2003overtheCORDEX-EA-IIRegion

ShuyuWang,NanjingUniversity,China

ShuyuWang,JianpingTang,LinyunYang,NanjingUniversity,China

The performance of multi-physics ensemble ofWRFmodel is assessed and evaluated for the JJAextremeprecipitationandtemperaturein2003overtheCORDEX-EA-IIdomain.Whilerelativelylargerbiasesofmodelprecipitationandtemperatureareevidentoverthesub-regionswheretheeffectsofmesoscaleprocessesareimportant,thecombinationsofWRFphysicalschemesalsoshowdependencyon geographic location and climate regimes. Comparably, the cumulus andmicrophysical schemeshave substantial influences on the simulation of precipitation, and the land surface models andcumulusschemesplaycrucialrolesinthesurfacetemperature.ThecombinationofNoahforthelandsurfaceprocess, Lin for themicrophysics,G3D for the cumulus parameterization andCAM for theradiationschemecanprovidethemostreliablereproductionofbothprecipitationandtemperatureextremesoverChina.Thewindfieldsatlow-to-middleatmosphericlevels,whichiscloselyconnectedtomodel’sabilitytoreproduceregionalextremes,aresensitivetothemodeltreatmentoflandsurfaceand cumulus convective process, and the impact of the land-atmospheric interaction on regionalextremes can be greatly modulated by convective activity. In conclusion, the model simulatedtemperatureandprecipitationextremesaresensitivitiestothemodelphysicalprocesses,displayedasrelativelylargeensemblespread.

Keywords: regional extremes, WRF model, multi-physics ensemble analysis


C1-P-32

ThesensitivitytoinitialsoilmoistureforthreeseverecasesofheatwavesoverEasternChina

PinyaWang,NanjingUniversty,China

PinyaWang,JianpingTang,NanjingUniversity,China

UsingWeatherResearchandForecastingmodel(WRF)simulationswithdifferentinitialsoilmoisture(ISM) conditions,we investigate the sensitivity to ISM for the three severe heatwave events thatdominatedeasternChinain2003,2007,and2013.Thecontrolsimulationsareabletoreproducethespatial distributions and the daily evolutions for each of the three heat waves but apparentlyunderestimatetheiramplitudes,intensities,andspatialextensions.ThedecreasedISMcouldcauseanenhancement on heat waves with increased amplitudes, extents and intensities, while it hasinsignificant influence on the spatial distributions and temporal variations. The responses of heatwavesaregenerallydecreasingwiththeincreasingISM,controlledbydifferentregimesinthesurfacesoil moisture-temperature relationship. Through enhanced sensible flux as well as reduced latentcooling,theinitialsoildrynesslocallystrengthensthesurfacewarmingandthefurtherdryingofthesoil.Thethreeheatwaveswerealldominatedbyhigh-pressuresystemsinthemid-troposphere.Thereduced ISM forces positive anomalies of geopotential height at mid-troposphere and negativeanomalies at lower levels, leading to an enhanced thickness of the atmosphere. Such a thickenedatmospherecanstrengthentheanomaloushigh-pressuresystems,favoringthemaintenanceofsevereheatwaves.Thisactsasapositivefeedbackbetweenatmosphericcirculation,surfacewarming,andsoildryness.

Keywords: initial soil moisture, heat waves, WRF, soil moisture-temperature relationship


C1-P-33

Quantifyinganthropogeniccontributiontothe2017earliestsummeronsetinKoreausinglarge-ensembleRCMsimulations

Yeon-HeeKim,PohangUniversityofScienceandTechnology,SouthKorea

Yeon-HeeKim,Seung-KiMin,In-HongPark,DonghyunLee,PohangUniversityofScienceandTechnology,SouthKorea;SarahSparrow,UniversityofOxford,UnitedKingdom;DavidWallom,

UniversityofOxford,UnitedKingdom;DáithíStone,GlobalClimateAdaptationPartnership,UnitedKingdom

DuringMay2017,SouthKoreaexperiencedthehottestrecordedtemperaturesince1973whichwasthe culmination of four consecutive years of record-breaking May temperature. The wamer Maytemperature were observed across South Korea, with the station mean being 1.5°C wamer thanclimatology(1987-2010).ThehottestMaycoincideswiththeearliestsummeronsetabout8dayearlierthan climatology, exerting huge societal impacts for health, economy, and leisure activities. Toexamine the human contribution to the 2017 extremeMay temperature and the earliest summeronset,thisstudyassessesextremeeventsunderrealworldandcounterfactualworldconditionsusinghigh-resolution (50 km) large-ensemble (>1000 members) regional climate model (RCM,weather@home) over CORDEX-East Asia Phase I domain. Results are compared with those fromatmosphericglobalclimatemodel(GCM,CAM5.1)simulationsandCMIP5coupledGCMswithacoarseresolution. The anthropogenic contribution is quantified by using risk ratio (RR)which indicates achange in extreme event probability due to human activities. Both large-ensemble RCMandGCMsimulationsshowthat theprobabilityofoccurrenceof theextremeevents like the2017Maycaseincreasesbytwo-threetimeswhen includinganthropogenic forcing (mainlyduetogreenhousegasincreases).FutheranalysisofdifferencesintheattibutionresultsamongdifferentboundarySSTs(orGCMs) suggests that the inter-model difference is closely related to themodel’s response to theaerosolforcing,supportingpreviousfindings.Ourmulti-modelassessmentbasedonRCMandGCMsimulationsprovidesaconvincingevidencethathumaninfluencehascontributedtothestrongerandearlierspringheatwaveinKoreabybetterconsideringinter-modeluncertainties.

Keywords: RCM, Summer onset, anthropogenic contribution


C1-P-34

ResponseoftropicalterrestrialgrossprimaryproductiontothesuperElNiñoeventin2015

JiawenZhu,InstituteofAtmosphericPhysics,ChineseAcademyofSciences,China

JiawenZhu,InstituteofAtmosphericPhysics,ChineseAcademyofSciences,China;MinghuaZhang,SchoolofMarineandAtmosphericSciences,StonyBrookUniversity,USA;YaoZhang,Departmentof

EarthandEnvironmentalEngineering,ColumbiaUniversity,USA;XiaodongZeng,InstituteofAtmosphericPhysics,ChineseAcademyofSciences,China;XiangmingXiao,Departmentof

MicrobiologyandPlantBiology,UniversityofOklahoma,USA

TheGrossPrimaryProduction(GPP)intropicalterrestrialecosystemsplaysacriticalroleintheglobalcarboncycleandclimatechange.Thestrong2015–2016ElNiñoeventoffersauniqueopportunitytoinvestigatehowGPPinthetropicalterrestrialecosystemsrespondstoclimaticforcing.ThisstudyusestwoGPPproductsandconcurrentclimatedatatoinvestigatetheGPPanomaliesandtheirunderlyingcauses.WefindthatbothGPPproductsshowanenhancedGPP in2015 for thetropical terrestrialecosystemasawholerelativetothemulti-yearmeanof2001–2015,andthisenhancementisthenetresultofGPPincreaseintropicalforestsanddecreaseinnon-forests.WeshowthattheincreasedGPPintropicalforestsduringtheElNinoeventisconsistentwithincreasedphotosynthesisactiveradiationasaresultofareductioninclouds,whilethedecreasedGPPinnon-forestsisconsistentwithincreasedwaterstressasaresultofareductionofprecipitationandanincreaseoftemperature.Theseresultsreveal the strong coupling of ecosystem and climate that is different in forest and non-forestecosystems,andprovideatestcaseforcarboncycleparameterizationandcarbon-climatefeedbacksimulationinmodels.

Keywords: gross primary production, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, tropical terrestrial ecosystems, light use efficiency, extreme events


C2: High mountain environments

ORAL PRESENTATIONS

Parallel Session C: Climate Change Impacts C2: High mountain environments

TheExperimentalStudiesontheLand-AtmosphericInteractionsovertheSourceRegionoftheThreeRivers

WenJun,CollegeofAtmosphericSciences,PlateauAtmosphereandEnvironmentKeyLaboratoryofSichuanProvince,ChengduUniversityofInformationTechnology,Chengdu,China

WenJun,CollegeofAtmosphericSciences,PlateauAtmosphereandEnvironmentKeyLaboratoryofSichuanProvince,ChengduUniversityofInformationTechnology,Chengdu,China;WangXin,WangZuoliang,KeyLaboratoryofLandSurfaceProcessandClimateChangeinColdandAridRegions,

NorthwestInstituteofEco-EnvironmentandResources,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Lanzhou,China

Theland-atmosphericinteractionisanimportantcomponentoftheEarthClimateSystem.Althoughthenumericalmodelandsatelliteremotesensingarethemainmeanstostudytheland-atmosphericinteraction process, the field observation experiments are still essential. The land-atmosphericinteractionprocessinthesourceareaofThreeRivershasimportantimpactsonclimatechangeandwatercycleinthisregionandeveninthewholeeasternAsiaregion.Thisinvestigationwillfocusesonaseriesoftheland-atmosphericinteractionfieldexperimentsinthesourceareaoftheThreeRivers.Special attentions have paid to the observations of the water heat exchange between the land-atmospheric interaction field experiments, the establishment and data analysis of soil moistureobservationnetwork,andthegroundbasedmicrowaveremotesensingexperiment.The importantresearchprogressbasedthisexperimentistobeintroduced,andthefutureprospectofthedataisprospected.

Keywords:land-atmosphericinteraction;experiment;moisture;remotesensing


IsdynamicallydownscaledCORDEX-SAdomainmodelabletosimulateRainfallpatter:Acasestudyofnorth-westHimalayanregion?

SudipKundu,IndianInstituteofscience,India

SudipKundu,CharuSingh,IndianInstituteofRemoteSensing,India

The climatic phenomena over the Indian region are highly influenced by monsoon. As a greatphysiographicdivide,theHimalayasdefendsrain-bearingsouth-westmonsoontogiveupmaximumprecipitation in that region during themonsoon season (rainy season). According to the scientificconcurrence, it can be said that rainfall in North-West Himalayan Region (NWH) become moreunpredictableasthereisaconsiderablevariationbetweenthedurationofmonsoonandtheamountofrainfall inthedifferentplacesofthatregion.Accordingtothesocio-economicpointofview,therainfallovertheNWHregionisverycloselyrelatedtothelossofhumanbeings,destructarchitecturesandfoodcrops.Inthatcontext,thepresentstudyhasbeenplannedtoinvestigatetheCoordinatedRegionalClimateDownscalingExperimentovertheSouthAsiaregion(CORDEX-SA)domainmodelisabletocapturerainfallintensityatdailyscaleoverNWHregioncomparedtotheground-basedIMDgriddedrainfalldataproperlyornot?Toservethatpurpose,someselectedCORDEX-SAdomainmodelslikeMIROC5,MPI-ESM-LR,GFDL-ESM2M,andIPSL-CM5A-LR,etc.havebeenutilizedaccordingtotheirsimulationcapabilityofthespatio-temporaldistributionofrainfallatdailyscaleovertheNWHregionduringthetimeperiod1976to2000intheprincipalrainyseason.Itisnotedfromtheanalysis,thatthemodels likeMIROC5andMPI-ESM-LRprovide thebest spatial distributionof rainfall, althoughCORDEX-SAdomainmodelsareunabletocapturetherainfallintensityatdailyscalecomparedtoIMDdataovertheNWHregion.Morediscussionwillbeheldatthetimeofconference.

Keywords: Rainfall,CORDEX-SA,NWH region EURO-CORDEX,climate projections,snow cover


ObservationsandModellingofPrecipitationinHighMountainRegions

PetrusJvanOevelen,Int.GEWEXProjectOffice,UnitedStates

Within the Global Energy and Water Exchanges Project (GEWEX) of the World Climate ResearchProgramme (WCRP) several new activities are being developed to address the issues regardingobservationsandmodelingofprecipitationinhighmountainregions.SeveralRegionalHydroclimateProjects(RHPs)arebeingdevelopedinthehighmountainregionsoftheworld(ANDEX,AsiaPEX)thatwillfocusontheissueofimprovingourobservationsbothinsituaswellasusingremotesensingandmodelingofprecipitationwithconvectionpermittingmodeling.AspecialactivitythatcrosscutstheseRHPsisnowbeingdevelopedtoaddressprecipitationinthesechallengingenvironmentsinparticular.Inthispresentation,thevariousapproachesandideaswithinthisnewprojectwillbepresented.

Keywords: Precipitation,High Mountains


Europeansnowcoverinachangingclimate:EvaluationandprojectionsoftheEURO-CORDEXregionalclimatemodelensemble

ClaasTeichmann,ClimateServiceCenterGermany(GERICS),Hamburg,Helmholtz-ZentrumGeesthacht,Germany

ClaasTeichmann,ClimateServiceCenterGermany(GERICS),Hamburg,Helmholtz-ZentrumGeesthacht,Germany;SvenKotlarski,FederalOfficeofMeteorologyandClimatologyMeteoSwiss,Switzerland;KatharinaBuelow,ClimateServiceCenterGermany(GERICS),Hamburg,Helmholtz-

ZentrumGeesthacht,Germany;ChristianSteger,InstituteforAtmosphericandClimateScience,ETHZurich,Germany

Surfacesnowcoverplaysavital climatic role inmountainousandhigh latituderegionsaroundtheglobe, where snow-atmosphere feedbacks can strongly influence near-surface atmosphericconditions.Inaddition,humanactivitiesstronglydependonsnowfallandsnowcoverinmanyoftheseplaces.InAlpineregions,forinstance,freshwatersupplypartlyreliesontheavailabilityofmeltwateroriginatingfromthesurfacesnowpack.Alsowintertourismoftenheavilydependsontheavailabilityof natural snow. Recent studies of past snow cover trends using observational datasets show adecreaseinsnowfalldaysandsnowdepthinmanyregions.

Inordertoanticipatefuturechangesinsnowcoveranditsimplicationsforhumanactivitiesandwateravailability,regionalclimatemodels(RCMs)canbeused.Thesemodelsaimatrepresentingthemostrelevantprocessesforclimaticconditionsinaregionontimescalesofdecadestocenturiesand,amongothers, incorporate snow parameterization schemes of differing complexity to simulate the snowcover response to climate change and climate variability. They thus allow for an approximaterepresentationofsnow-atmospherefeedbacks.

In thisstudy,weexploit thestate-of-the-artmulti-modelEURO-CORDEXRCMensembletovalidatepastandtoanalyzefuturesnowcoverconditionsonaEuropeanscaleandatahorizontalresolutionof~12km.WefirstinvestigatethecapabilityofthemodelensembletorepresenthistoricalsnowcoverconditionsindifferentregionsofEuropeinre-analysisandGCM-drivensimulations.Modelresultsareevaluated against satellite derived and surface-based observational datasets. Overall, the analysisindicatesagoodrepresentationofpastsnowcovervariabilitybytheRCMs.However,importantbiasescanariseespeciallyathigh-elevationregionsduetoaconstantaccumulationofsnowinsomemodels.

Second,projected future changes inEuropean snowconditions for threedifferent greenhousegasscenarios(RCP2.6,RCP4.5andRCP8.5)areanalyzed.WefindanimportantreductionofbothmeanwintersnowdepthandofsnowcoverdurationovermostregionsofEurope.Therelativelossofsnowcoverismostpronouncedinhighemissionscenarios(RCP4.5andRCP8.5)andatlowelevationswherepresent-daywinter temperatures arealready close toor evenabove themeltingpoint.Also snowcover duration is projected to importantly reduce. Overall, the results are largely consistent withregionalstudiesemployingofflinesnowcovermodelsforcedbyRCMatmosphericinput,indicatingthegeneralapplicabilityofRCM-simulatedsnowcoverforlarge-scalestudies.


FuturechangesinsnowfallandsnowcoverathighJapanesemountainranges

HiroakiKawase,MeteorologicalResearchInstitute,Japan

HiroakiKawase,MeteorologicalResearchInstitute,Japan;TakeshiYamazaki,TohokuUniversity,Japan;ShioriSugimoto,JapanAgencyforMarine-EarthScienceandTechnology,Japan;Takahiro

Sasai,TohokuUniversity,Japan;MikikoFujita,JapanAgencyforMarine-EarthScienceandTechnology,Japan;MasayaNosaka,MeteorologicalResearchInstitute,Japan;AkihikoMurata,

MeteorologicalResearchInstitute,Japan;HidetakaSasaki,MeteorologicalResearchInstitute,Japan

The Japanese highmountain ranges along the Sea of Japan receive heavy snowfall inwinter. ThenorthwesterlyfromthecontinentobtainsalargeamountofmoisturefromtheSeaofJapanandcausesheavysnowfallalongtheSeaofJapancoast.ThismechanismisthesameastheseaeffectoftheBalticSeaorthelakeeffectofGreatLakesintheUS.Thetopographicupdraftenhancessnowfallandresultsinenormousamountofsnowcoverover thehighmountainousareas in Japan.Sincethe Japanesemountainrangeshavecomplextopography,ahigh-resolutionregionalclimatemodel isrequiredtoreproducethemountainoussnowfallandsnowcoverinJapan.

Wehavealreadyconductedthelargeensembleregionalandglobalclimatesimulation,whichiscalledthedatabaseforPolicyDecisionmakingforFutureclimatechange(d4PDF),usingthenon-hydrostaticregionalclimatemodel(NHRCM)with20kmgridspacingandatmosphericgeneralcirculationmodel(MRI-AGCM)withabout60kmgridspacing.Inthisstudy,thedynamicaldownscalingsfromd4PDFareconductedusingNHRCMwith5kmand1kmgridspacing(NHRCM05andNHRCM01)intheselectedyearstofocusonthefuturechangesinsnowfallandsnowcoveroverthecomplexJapanesemountains.

Intheendof21stcenturyundertheRCP8.5scenario,wintertotalsnowfalliscomparabletothatinthepresentclimateoverthehighmountainousareas.NHRCM01indicatedthatsnowfallwillincreasefrom lateDecember toearly Februaryalthough snowfallwill decrease in theearlywinterand lateFebruary.NHRCM01alsoindicatesthatthefrequencyofheavydailysnowfallwillincreaseinthefutureclimate.Thesechangesareclearlyfoundintheheavysnowfallyears.Inthelightsnowfallyears,totalsnowfall dramatically decreases due to global warming. Our results indicate that the interannualvariationofsnowfallbecomelargeattheJapanesehighmountainousareasinthefutureclimate.

Keywords: mountainous snow, global warming, regional climate change, Japanese mountain ranges, ensemble experiments


TherelationbetweenCORDEXprecipitationandmodelorographyinthenorthwestEthiopianhighlands


BertVanSchaeybroeck,RoyalMeteorologicalInstituteofBelgium,Belgium;JanNyssen,GhentUniversity,DepartmentofGeography,Ghent,Belgium;PietTermonia,RoyalMeteorologicalInstituteofBelgium,Belgium;MichielVanGinderachter,RoyalMeteorologicalInstituteofBelgium,Belgium;

SanderVanVooren,GhentUniversity,DepartmentofGeography,Ghent,Belgium

TheEthiopianhighlandsgoupto4500mandfeatureverycomplexpatternsofprecipitationthatareimportant to the large local populuation? However, due to the sparse observational network,understandingtherainfallvariabilitycanbeachievedbytheuseofclimatemodels.ModellingrainfallintheEthiopianHighlandsischallengingduetothecomplexorography,thepresenceofLakeTanaandtheseasonalandpredominantlyconvectiverainfalls.

Here,theavailableCORDEXmodelsfromdifferentCORDEXdomainsthatcovernorthwestEthiopiaareevaluatedagainstmultiplesetsofgriddedobservationaldatasets(VanVoorenetal.2018).Suchmodelvalidationisrequiredtogetconfidenceinclimateprojectionsthatassesstheresponseofprecipitationandassociatedimpactssuchasagriculture,withrespecttoglobalclimatechange.

Theresults indicatethat,althoughCORDEXoverestimatesrainfall,observationsgenerally liewithintherangeofthemodelensemble.Weunderlinetherelationofthemodelorographytothemodelperformance.Morespecifically,wefindanoverestimationoftheelevationalsensitivityinthesensethatCORDEXrainfallistoohighathighelevationsandtoolowatlowelevations.Modelsfeaturingthemostsmoothenedmodelorographyperformbestalthoughthis relationcouldbedueto theirverypoororographic representation.Sixothermodels,also featuringapoororographic representation,have the strongest precipitaiton overestimation at high elevations. Given their strong elevation–precipitation correlation even larger biases could be expected in case thesemodels incorporate acorrect orography. Results are also shown that show the contrast between rainfall falling at thewindwardandrainfallatthelee-sideofthemountains

Reference:Van Vooren, S., Van Schaeybroeck, B., Nyssen, J., Van Ginderachter, M., & Termonia, P. (2019).EvaluationofCORDEXrainfall innorthwestEthiopia: sensitivity to themodel representationof theorography.AcceptedtoInternationalJournalofClimatology39,2569-2586,doi:10.1002/joc.5971.

Keywords: orography, precipitation, convection


Topographyeffectsonprojectedrainfallchangeinmid-latitudemountainregions

JasonEvans,UNSW

MichaelGrose,CSIRO,-;JozefSyktus,GlobalChangeInstitute,TheUniversityofQueensland;MarcusThatcher,CSIRO;JasonEvans,UNSW;FeiJi,NewSouthWalesOfficeofEnvironmentandHeritage-;

TonyRafter,CSIRO;TomRemenyi,AntarcticClimateandEcosystemsCRC

Changetoprecipitationinawarmingclimateholdsmanyimplicationsforwatermanagementintothefuture,andanenhancementofaprecipitationdecreaseorincreaseonoraroundmountainswouldhavenumerousimpacts.Hereweshowthatrecentobservedtrendsandtwohigh-resolutionmodelensembles agree on an enhanced precipitation decrease over the Australian Alps compared tosurrounding regions in winter and spring, consistent with theory and model studies of idealisedmountain ranges. The ensembles disagree on an enhanced precipitation decrease in autumn.Intermediateresolutionmodellingsuggeststhatthisenhancedresponse ispresentoverothermid-latitudemountainrangesinwinter.Theprojectedchangeinsummerrainfallovermountainsdependsonprocessessuchasconvectionthatareparameterisedevenincurrentregionalclimatemodels.Wefind that parameterised rainfall drives an enhanced rainfall increase over the inland slopes of theAustralianAlpscomparedtosurroundingregionsinsummer,partlyconsistentwithpreviousfindingsovertheEuropeanAlps.Wealsofindthatanincreaseinparameterisedrainfalldeterminesthesignoftotalrainfallchangeinmanyregionsinsummer,onlysomeofwhichareonornearmountains.Theresults represent regional-scale added value in the climate change signal of projections fromhighresolution models in cooler seasons, but suggest that the specific model components such asconvection schemes strongly influence projections of summer rainfall change. Confidence in thesimulationofchangeinconvectiverainfall,orconvection-permittingmodellingmaybeneededtoraiseconfidenceinsummerrainfallprojectionsovermountains.

Keywords: regional climate models,added value


Theinvestigationofglacier-hydrologicalimpactsunderclimatechangebyanintegratedatmosphere-glacier-hydrologicalmodelingsystem:

acasestudyofaNorwegianglacier

LuLi,NORCENorwegianResearchCentre,BjerknesCenterforClimateResearch,Norway

LuLi,NORCENorwegianResearchCentre,BjerknesCenterforClimateResearch,Norway;TrudeEidhammer,NCAR,USA;PriscillaMooney,NORCENorwegianResearchCentre,BjerknesCenterforClimateResearch,Norway;BhuwanBhatt,AtleNesje,UniversityofBergen,-;StefanSobolowski,

NORCENorwegianResearchCentre,BjerknesCenterforClimateResearch,Norway-;RoyRasmussen,NCAR,USA

Glaciersprovidenaturalstorageandregulationofwatersupplytorivers,which,inturn,contributetowater supply for domestic and industrial consumption, irrigation and hydropower, especially inNorway.Thereisacriticalandpressingneedtobetterunderstandtheeffectsofclimatechangeonglaciers, and the local-to-regionalhydrological impacts these changes induce, in aholisticmanner.However, the regional processes, mass balance and/or other glacial processes, are still poorlyunderstood.Further,theimpactsthesechangeshaveonwaterresourcesaretypicallyinvestigatedviaaone-waychainofdiscretemodels,whichoftenmismatchesintemporalandspatialresolution.

Ourstudyaimstoinvestigatethefutureclimateprojectionanditsglacier-hydrologicalimpactsforawell-monitored Norwegian glacier (Hardangerjøkulen) complex by a newly developed integratedatmosphere-glacier-hydrologicalmodellingsystem,i.e.WRF-HydroGlac.First,aconvective-permittingsimulation(1kmovertheHardangerjøkulenregionanditssurroundingwatersheds,and100mforthehydrological/glaciersystem)ofhindcast10years(1995-2005)wasconductedbytheWRF-HydroGlacmodeling system and evaluated based on the observations. Second, the Pseudo-global-warming(PGW)climatechangeapproachisappliedtofocusontheforcedresponseofthefutureclimatesystematthemiddleofthecentury(2055-2065)andwemadeafutureprojection,whichhasthesamedomainsetandresolutionasthehindcastsimulation.Atlast,weinvestigatedandsummarizedtheclimateandglacier-hydrological projections for theNorwegian glacier region by theWRF-HydroGlacmodellingsystem.

Keywords: Glacier, Hydrological impact, modelling, regional climate, convective-permitting, climate change


Resultsofanewmethodologyfortheanalyzetheclimatechangeuncertaintyonahighstepmountainrange.ApplicationattheAndes

AndreaF.Carril,CentrodeInvestigacionesdelMarylaAtmósfera(CIMA/UBA-CONICET)&IFAECI(UMI3351-IFAECI/CNRS-IRD-CONICET-UBA),BuenosAires,Argentina

LluísFita,AndreaF.Carril,PedroFlombaum,ClaudioMenéndez,RominaRuscica,AnnaSörensson,CentrodeInvestigacionesdelMarylaAtmósfera(CIMA/UBA-CONICET)&IFAECI(UMI3351-

IFAECI/CNRS-IRD-CONICET-UBA),BuenosAires,Argentina,Argentina;PabloZaninelli,CentrodeInvestigacionesdelMarylaAtmósfera(CIMA/UBA-CONICET)&IFAECI(UMI3351-IFAECI/CNRS-IRD-CONICET-UBA),BuenosAires&FacultyofAstronomicalandGeophysicalSciences(UNLP),LaPlata,

Argentina

Multi-modelclimatechangeanalysisovermountainousregionsisacomplextopicduetothemodels'differentrepresentationsofthemountains.TheAndesMountainsproducesahugedisturbanceoftheatmosphericcirculationofSouthAmericawithlargedifferencesintheclimaticresponsethatoccuronthe windward and lee side of the range. Due to different representations of the mountain, thewindwardandleesideswilldifferamongthemodels.Moreover,theclimatealongthemountainrangewillpresentastrongdependenceonthetopographicalhighof thegridpoint,alsodifferingamongmodels,anditsdistancefromtheEquator.Inordertotakeunderconsiderationalltheseelements,wepresent the first results of a methodology which allows us to objectively classify the domain ofsimulationfollowingthreedifferentcriteria:latitudinalbands,topographicalheightandW-Esidealongtherange.ThemethodologyisappliedtoanalyzetheclimatechangeprojectionanditsuncertaintyofallovertheSouthAmericanAndesmountainrange.ThisrangeencompassesalargevarietyofclimatesalongitsNorth-SouthdistributionandpresentsalsostrongW-Eclimatedifferencesduetoitsblockingeffect to the large-scale circulation.Thedatabasesused includea sub-setofCMIP5 runs,availableCORDEXruns,andsomere-analysisinordertoprovidearobustmeasureoftheuncertaintyspannedbythesemodelspresentedatdifferent,latitudes,heightsandsidesofthemountains.

Keywords: Climate uncertainty, Mountaineous areas


C2: High mountain environments



DAHAL PiyushApplicationofCORDEXSouthAsiaclimateproducttoassesstheimpactsofclimatechangeonwateravailabilityinKarnaliRiverBasinofNepalHimalaya.

C2-P-01

DHAKAL Subodh ClimatechangevulnerabilityindifferentpartsoftheNepalHimalaya C2-P-02

MADHAV Giri ImpactsofclimatechangeonthemountainousindegneouscomminitiesofNepal C2-P-03


C2-P-01

ApplicationofCORDEXSouthAsiaclimateproducttoassesstheimpactsofclimatechangeonwateravailabilityinKarnaliRiverBasinofNepalHimalaya.

PiyushDahal,TheSmallEarthNepal,Nepal

PiyushDahal,JeebanPanthi,MadanLallShrestha,TheSmallEarthNepal/NepalAcademyofScienceandTechnology,Nepal

TheHimalayasarewatertowersforAsiaandwatersourcetomajorriverswhichprovidewaterforabout 1.3 billion people inhabiting the mountain and downstream. Basin-level water availabilityassessmentinthecontextofclimatechangeisnowamajorconcernformanyregionalplannersanddecisionmakersinthisarea.ThemainobjectiveofthisresearchistoevaluatetheprojectedimpactsofclimatechangeonwateravailabilityinKarnaliRiverBasinofNepalHimalaya.WeappliedtheSoiland Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a basin-level hydrological model to determine future wateravailabilitybasedonclimatescenarios.WeusedanensembleproductofCORDEXSouthAsiafutureclimate data for 2040-2069 and 2070-2099 for 2 emission scenarios – RCP4.5 andRCP8.5. Resultsindicate that the averageannual temperature could riseby at least 1.4°Cby themid-21st century(2040-2069)andcanexceedby3.4°Cby the late21st century (2070-2099)underahigh-emissionsscenario compared to the baseline 1971-2000. The warming trend is projected to be stronger innorthern highland than lowland. Our analysis shows that precipitation will increase during themonsoonbutdecreaseduringthewinter,indicatingincreasingextremeevents.Annualprecipitationcould increase by 12% and 30% under RCP4.5 RCP8.5 scenarios respectively. This change inprecipitationhasbeenreflectedinstreamflowchange.Anincreaseinstreamflowisexpectedforboththe mid- and late-century compared to the baseline period in pre-monsoon (March-May) andmonsoon(June-September)seasonsandthat floodingwillbecomemoreextremeandprojectedtodecreasestreamflowduringtheearlywinter.

Keywords: Climate Change, Water Resource, Hydrological Model, Himalaya


C2-P-02

ClimatechangevulnerabilityindifferentpartsoftheNepalHimalaya

SubodhDhakal,TribhuvanUniversity,Tri-ChandraMultipleCampus,Nepal

SubodhDhakal,TribhuvanUniversity,Tri-ChandraMultipleCampus,Nepal;MunaNeupane,CentralDepartmentofEnvironmentalScience,TribhuvanUniversity,Nepal

Duetothegreatvariationoftopography,theclimaticvariabilityanditsimpactarenothomogeneousin Nepal. This paper identifies the vulnerabilities associated with the climate change in the HighMountains to the plain areas of Nepal focusing on glacial retreat in the high mountains, waterresources in theMiddleMountain and crop production in the plain area. The primary data werecollectedfromthedirectfieldstudyandsocialsurvey.ThesecondarydatawerecollectedfromthesatelliteimagesandtherelevantagenciesoftheNepalgovernment.TheclimaticandcropyieldtrendsweredeterminedusingMann–KendalltestsandquantifiedusingSen’sslopemethod.

When comparing the aerial extent of the glaciers in the Langtang Valley, the total loss of glacialcoverageareawithinthepast30years is24%.Thehorizontalandverticalretreatofglaciers inthiswatershedisfoundtobe40m/yearand3m/yearrespectively.Asaconsequence,thevulnerabilityofdebrisflow,shortageofwaterresourcesandadverseimpactinagriculturewerereported.Studyinthemiddle mountain of Salyantar area for last 30 years revealed that maximum temperature wasincreasingattherateof0.039degreeCelsius/yearandannualprecipitationwasdecreasingattherateof22.99mm/yearwithstatisticallysignificanttrend.Numberoflocalpondshasbeenreducedandthesoilmoisturehasbeendecreasedcontinuously.Watercoveragehasbeendecreasedfrom28.93%to6.47%within the sameperiod. Study inplain areasofNepal inRautahatdistrict revealed that theannualaveragerainfallisdecreasingattherateof10.21mm/yearandtheannualmeantemperatureisincreasingatarateof0.020degreeCelsius/yearoverthelast30years.Despitethistrend,theyieldof major crops showed increasing trend which is statistically significant. This is attributed to theadaptationmeasureslikeenhancedirrigationsystems,hybridseedsandincreasedaccesstofertilizersandpesticides.

Keywords: Climate change, Vulnerability, Glacial retreat, Crop production


C2-P-03

ImpactsofclimatechangeonthemountainousindegneouscomminitiesofNepal

MadhavGiri,TribhuvanUniversity,Nepal,Nepal

Climatechangeisfastpushingthecommunities,particularlythemostpoorandmarginalizedinthedevelopingcountries.Erraticrainfallpatternsandchangingseasonsareupsettingagriculturalcyclesanddroughteventsareleavingmanytostruggletofeedtheirfamilies.ThisstudywasundertakentoassessadaptationpracticesbySurelandThamimountainindigenousandmarginalizedcommunitiesofNepal.

Thestudywasconductedbasedonthedatagatheredfromboththeprimaryandsecondarysources.The primary data were collected using questionnaire survey of 104 households of marginalcommunities in Lapilang and Surel village of Dolakha, mountain district of Nepal along with keyinformant interviews inMay– June2018.Meteorologicaldatawerecollected fromDepartmentofHydrologyandMeteorology.

Therewasincrementofmeanannualtemperatureby0.02040Cperyear.Similarly,dataconfirmedanincrement trendofannual rainfall at the rateof7.574mmperyear. Therewas increased inMaizeproductionandincreasedMosquitoproblemduetoincreasedintemperature.Boththecommunitiesarefacingemergenceofdiseasesandpestsintheirfarmlandandlivestock.

It was found that the farmers are practicing some adaptation options such as shifting from largeanimalstosmallerones,introductionofnewvarietiesofcommercialvegetables,croprotation,surfacechannels for irrigation, artificial ponds andwater tank for the storage ofwater. However, stronginstitutional supports are required to build resilience of poor and marginalized community tostrengthentheadaptivestrategiesandpractices.

Keywords: Climate change, Impact, Adaptation, Mountain, Indegenous


C3: Implications for renewable

energy

ORAL PRESENTATIONS

Parallel Session C: Climate Change Impacts C3: Implications for renewable energy

FutureprojectionsofwindspeedandwindpoweroverCORDEX-EastAsia

DeleiLi,InstituteofOceanology,ChineseAcademyofSciences,China

DeleiLi,InstituteofOceanology,ChineseAcademyofSciences,China;BaoshuYin,InstituteofOceanology,ChineseAcademyofSciences,China;BeateGeyer,InstituteofCoastalResearch,

HelmholtzZentrumGeesthacht,Geesthacht,Germany

China has set ambitious goals for the development ofwind energy tomeet the increasing energydemand.Many studies have assessed the potential wind energy in Chinese continental areas forhistorical periods. However, few studies have focused on future projections of climatology andvariability ofwind speeds andwindpower in China.We analyze ensemble simulations of regionalclimatemodelCCLMoverCORDEX-EastAsiaat50kmresolution,focusingonwindspeedandwindenergypotentials.Theanalysis isbasedon3-hourly10mwindspeedsfromfourGCM-CCLMChainsimulationsduring1950-2100.Thequalityofhistoricalwindspeedsduring1981-2005reconstructedbyCCLMwasassessedbya comparisonwithERA5 reanalysisdataset.QuantilemappingbasedonWeibull distribution has been used to bias-correct simulated to the ERA5 reanalysis dataset. Theclimatology,variability,andextremeclimateofwindandwindenergyovertheBYSarespatiallyandtemporallyinvestigated,includingmeanchangesinannualandseasonalwindenergy.

Keywords: wind energy,future projection,CORDEX-East Asia,Bias Correction


Effectofaerosol-radiationandaerosol-cloudinteractionsinthesimulationofphotovoltaicandwindpowerusingregionalclimatemodels

JuanPedroMontávez,UniversidaddeMurcia,Spain

SoniaJerez,JoseMaríaLópez-Romero,BlasLajarin,RaquelLorente-Plazas,LauraPalacios-Peña,PedroJiménez-Guerrero,JuanPedroMontávez,UniversidaddeMurcia,Spain

Regional Climate Models are powerful tools allowing in-depth characterizations of the variablerenewablewind and solar resources abundance and variability and the climate change impact onthese,amongothers.Theirsuitabilitytoprovidebothsurrogateclimatedatabasestoovercomethelimitationsoftheobservationalrecordsandtoassessregionalimpactsoftheglobalwarmingiswellknown.However,theystillmisssomeimportantphysical-chemicalprocesses,mainlyduetotheirhighcomputationalcost.As this latter is increasinglyassumable,anevaluationof theeffectsandactualimportanceoftheseprocesses,suchasaerosol-radiation(ARI)andaerosol-cloud(ACI)interactions,iskeytoadvanceintheoptimaldesignofnewregionalclimatemodelexperiments.Hereweassesstheextent at which the climatologies of the wind and the solar resources are sensitive to the costlyinclusion of the aerosols effects. Euro-Cordex compliant ERA20C-driven WRF and WRF-CHEM(including fully two-way ARI and ACI) simulations for the period 1991-2010 are compared for thepurpose. Results depict non-negligible signals, larger for the solar resource, indicating a generaldecreaseintheresourceavailabilityandusabilitywhenevaluatedfromthemostcomplexsimulationdespitethefactthatACIeffectswerefoundtooffsetpartofthesensitivitysignalstotheARIeffects,anovelfindingitself.

Keywords: Regional climate model,aerosol


ImpactofclimatechangeonfuturepotentialsofsolarelectricitygenerationoverWestAfrica

ColmanIbe,Energy,Climate,andEnvironmentScienceGroup,ImoStatePolytechnicUmuagwo,Ohaji,PMB1472Owerri,ImoState,Nigeria

Solarpowergenerationorutilizationishighlydependentontheavailabilityofadequatesolarradiationwhichisstronglyinfluencedbyweatherandclimate.ToexaminetheimpactofclimatechangeonthefuturesolarenergyresourcepotentialsoverWestAfricaduring2020-2060.Weanalyzemulti-modelensembleoftheAfrica-CORDEXregionalclimatesimulations.Wefoundthatundertwogreenhousegas concentration scenarios that annual solar resource ranges from 300 Wm-2 in the northernextremityto160Wm-2intheGuineaCoastregion.Additionally,itisobservedthatthesolarradiationtrendsincreasedsignificantlyintheregion.ThissuggestthatfutureclimatescenariosappearsnottoaffectthestabilityofsolarelectricpowergenerationoverWestAfrica.

Keywords: Solar radiation,Future projection,West Africa


CharacterizingtheHistoricalandProjectedWindEnergyResourceinthePhilippinesUsingCORDEX-SEASimulations

JohnNacpil,AteneodeManilaUniversity,Philippines

JohnNacpil,GemmaNarisma,FayeCruz,FredolinTangang,LiewJuneng,NationalUniversityofMalaysia,Malaysia,Malaysia;ThanhNgo-Duc,DepartmentofSpaceandAeronautics,UniversityofScienceandTechnologyofHanoi,VietnamAcademyofScienceandTechnology,Vietnam;TanPhan-Van,DepartmentofMeteorologyandClimateChange,VNUUniversityofScience,Vietnam;JerasornSantisirisomboon,RamkhamhaengUniversityCenterofRegionalClimateChangeandRenewable

Energy(RU-CORE),RamkhamhaengUniversity,Thailand;PatamaSinghruck,DepartmentofMarineScience,FacultyofScience,ChulalongkornUniversity,Thailand;DodoGunawan,CenterforClimateChangeInformation,AgencyforMeteorologyClimatologyandGeophysics(BMKG),Indonesia;Edvin

Aldrian,AgencyfortheAssessmentandApplicationofTechnology(BPPT),Indonesia

WindenergyisaviableresourceforpowergenerationinthePhilippines,butthewindresourcewilllikely changeover timedue to climate change. This studydetermined thehistorical andprojectedtrendsinbothwindspeedsandavailablewindenergyinestablishedandpotentialwindfarmlocationsinthePhilippineregion.ThewindresourcewasassessedusinganensemblemodeloutputfromtheCoordinatedRegionalClimateDownscalingExperiment–SoutheastAsia(CORDEX-SEA).Largepositivebiasesinthemodeledsurfacewindspeedsofupto200%withrespecttoECMWFRe-Analysis(ERA)-Interimdataset,especiallyinmountainousregions,wereobservedandlaterbias-correctedusingtheQuantileMappingMethod.Seasonallyforallperiods,windpowerpeaksduringJanuary-DecemberandAugust, coinciding with peaks of the Northeast and Southwest monsoons, respectively. BothRepresentativeConcentrationPath(RCP)4.5scenariosforthe2046-2045periodshowanincreaseinwindpowerdensitywithrespectto1986-2005valuesoverthewholePhilippinedomain,withstrongerincreaseduringSouthwestmonsoonmonths.AnalysisofseveralregionsinthePhilippinesrevealthatPalawan and Quezon, which were identified in previous studies to be areas with excellent windresources, remain tobe viablewind farm locations.However, potential sites (Northeast andWestLuzon,Mindanao,CelebesSea)thatshowlargeandsignificant(α=0.05)projectedincreaseinwindresourcesweredeterminedtobepoorwindfarmlocations,asboththeavailableandextractablewindpowerarestillquitelowdespitethislargeincrease.

Keywords: CORDEX-SEA,Philippines,Wind Energy,climate change,RegCM4.3


AstudyoncivicengagementintoenergytransitionsinceFukushimaanditsimpactonrenewableenergypolicyinSouthKorea

Hyun-ChinLim,SeoulNationalUniversity,SouthKorea

Hyun-ChinLim,Suk-KiKong,SeoulNationalUniversityAsiaCenter,SouthKorea

ThispapertriestoexplorehowtheFukushimadisasterin2011hadanunfathomableimpactonthewholeKoreansocietyintoreflectingthenationalenergypolicyaswellaspromotingenergytransition.AwakenedbytheFukushimadisaster,thehibernatingKoreancitizensonnuclearissuesregatheredfordenuclearization and climate change. Various civic groups are converging on energy transition bycarrying out science-based campaigns. Recently, those threatened by the risk of particulatematters(micro-dust),areactivelysupportingforenergytransitiontorenewableenergy.TheFukushimadisasterhasbegun to crackdownon the four-partyalliance: thenuclear industry, interest groups,governmentagencies,andexpertgroups.Toexaminethedynamicprocess,thispaperfocusesonthefull-fledged frameconflictandcompetitionsurrounding theenergy transitionpolicy.Especially,wehighlight thebottom-upprocessofhowgrassroots citizensplan, leadandpracticeparticipation topromotelocalgovernancetowardsenergytransition.SincetheMoonJae-ingovernmentwaslaunchedinMay2017,thegovernmentdeclareddenuclearizationpolicyandrecentlypromisednottoconstructanynuclearpowerplantbuttoincreaserenewableenergyratioupto30-35%by2040.Giventhenewpolitical opportunities, the trilateral competition and conflict on energy policy are getting intense.Notably,citizensfearingclimatecrisishaveactivelyengagedinpracticalalternativessuchasenergy-saving campaigns and solar powerplant cooperatives. This paper examineshowpost-nuke groupsdevelop their specialty equipped with more scientific and reliable evidence to persuade others.Arguably,suchenergytransitioneffortspushthegovernmenttoprioritizerenewableenergypolicyoverfossilfuelindustrycausingclimatechange.Thisanalysissuggestspracticalandscientificcluesonhowthegovernmentresolvesframeconflictsanddevelopsrenewableenergypoliciestowardsenergytransition.ItishopedthatthefindingsfromthepresentanalysishasnosmallimplicationsforpolicychoicesnotonlyinNortheastAsiancountriesbutinalldevelopingcountries.

Keywords: Renewable Energy Policy, Energy Transition, Civic Engagement, Climate Change, South Korea


SustainabilityofthehydropowergenerationcapacityofPakistaninchangingclimateconditions

HazratBilal,TheNationalUniversityofMalaysia,Pakistan

HazratBilal,MazlinMokhtar,ChamhuriSiwar,TheNationalUniversityofMalaysia,Malaysia

Pakistan’shydropowersectordependsheavilyonglacierandsnowmeltwaterthatoriginatefromtheUpper Indus Basin (UIB). It is expected that climate change will have adverse effects on futurehydropower generation capacity as a result of fluctuations in the magnitude, seasonality andhydrologicalextremesoftheIndusRiverrunoff.ThepossibleeffectsofclimatechangeontheIndusRiverflowhadbeen investigatedthroughtheuseofSnowmelt-RunoffModel(SRM)alongwiththeModerateResolutionImagingSpectroradiometerMODISsnowproductanddailyground-basedhydro-meteorologicaldata.Theresultshadindicatedasignificantincreaseintheannualandseasonalrunoff,hencesuggestingmorewateravailabilityinthefuture.AsastrongerincreaseofseasonalrunoffhadbeenshownundertheRCP4.5ratherthantheRCP8.5scenario,thisdifferencehad,therefore,revealedasignificantpossiblelossofpermanentsnowandglaciermassesbyearlywarming.However,theriseofannualandseasonalriverflowisexpectedtoincreasetheelectricitygenerationcapacityoffuturehydropowerprojectssincetheoverallgenerationcapacityhadbeenprojectedtoincreasebetween25%to69%undertheRCP4.5andRCP8.5scenarios,respectively.Asacaseinpoint,thehydroelectricgeneration capacity of the Diamer Basha hydropower project is expected to increase from therespectivecurrentpowergenerationcapacityof6053GWhto7748GWhand10224GWhundertheRCP4.5andRCP8.5setupsbytheendofthe21stcentury.Sincetheincreaseofrunoffduringpeakriverflowhasnowbecomeagreatconcern,thereisapressingneedforbetterwaterconservationthroughthebuildingofmorerobustdamsincateringforextremeweathersaswellastosupplyadequatewaterfor hydroelectric power generation during low flows. As such, apart from improving the storagecapacityoffuturehydropowerprojects,thespillwaydischargecapacityoffuturedamsshouldalsobeupgradedtodealwithpeakflows.Likewise,reforestationandafforestationintheupstreamareascanhelpregulatewaterflowandreducesiltation,whiletheconstructionofmoredamscanmitigatefloodrisksindownstreamareas,henceincreasingtheresilienceofhydropowersectortoclimatechange.

Keywords: Climate Change,Hydropower,Upper Indus Basin,Snow,SRM


TheFutureofAfrica’sWindEnergySectorunder1.5˚and2˚globalwarming.

VictorIndasi,AfricanCentreofMeteorologicalApplicationforDevelopment,Kenya

VictorIndasi,AfricanCentreofMeteorologicalApplicationforDevelopment,Kenya;ChrisLennard,ClimateSystemAnalysisGroup,SouthAfrica;GrigoryNikulin,SwedishMeteorologicaland

HydrologicalInstitute,Sweden;AlessandroDosio,EuropeanCommission,JointResearchCentre,Italy

Africareliesmainlyonpetroleumimportsandhydropowertomeetitseverincreasingdomesticandcommercialenergy requirements.Windenergy isexpected to substantially contribute to thegrossgeneratedglobalenergyproduction,especially inAfricawhere lessthanhalfof itspopulationhaveaccesstoelectricity.Windenergyresourceisnaturallyafunctionoftheclimatesystem,susceptibletovariations in climate and hence vulnerable to climate variability and change. In this paper, weinvestigate potential effect of mean global temperature increases under 1.5oC and 2oC GlobalWarmingLevelsabovepre-industriallevelsonchangesinsurfacewindspeedsoverAfricawithafocuson eight regions with ongoing large-scale wind energy projects, using downscaled multi-modelsimulationsfromtheCoordinatedRegionalClimateDownscalingExperiment(CORDEX).Thecapabilityofmulti-modelsimulationstoreproducepastwindcharacteristicsovertheeightregionswasevaluatedagainstERA-Interimreanalysisdataset.Modelsgiverealisticsimulationofwindcharacteristicsovertheseregions,andinmostcases,themagnitudesofthesimulationbiasesarewithintheobservationuncertainties.Basedonmulti-modelprojections,windenergypotentialfortheeightregionsislikelytopersistunderboth1.5oCand2oCGlobalWarmingLevels,thussustainabilityofongoingprojectsisguaranteed.

Keywords: Wind energy,1.5˚C and 2˚C global warming


C3: Implications for renewable

energy



AYOOBKHAN AfsalPossibilitiesofrenewableenergytechnologiestoaddressthepollutionhazardduetobackwatertourisminKuttanadareaofKerala,India

C3-P-01

RAHAMAN Muhammad

ClimateInformationServicesandItsPotentialonAdaptationandMitigation,LocalAdaptationPlanofAction(LAPA),IntendedNationallyDeterminedContributions(INCD)andBangladeshClimateChangeStrategyandActionPlan(BCCSAP):ExperiencefromFloodAffectedRegionofBangladesh

C3-P-02


C3-P-01

PossibilitiesofrenewableenergytechnologiestoaddressthepollutionhazardduetobackwatertourisminKuttanadareaofKerala,India

AfsalAyoobKhan,KeralaAgriculturalUniversity,India

AfsalAyoobKhan,KeralaAgriculturalUniversity,India;Dr.GopakumarCS,KeralaAgriculturalUniversity,India;Dr.ShajiJamesP,KelappajiCollegeofAgriculturalEngineeringandTechnology,

Tavanur,India

Background of the Study: Climate Change is emerged as the major threat to the environment.However,itsnegativeimpactsareprimarilyaffectedbythepoorpeoplesinthedevelopingcountriesbecause theymainly rely on the natural resources for their livelihood. Furthermore, tourism is animportantsectoramongtheotherclimatesensitiveeconomicsectors.ThestudylocationKeralastatecomprises of a unique geographical features that havemade it one of themost exclusive touristdestinationsinAsia.Eventhoughthereispositiveimpactontheeconomy,howeverenvironmentalpollutionisthemajorproblemassociatedwiththisindustry.Theimproperandirresponsiblewayofhouseboattourismdevelopmentaffectingthewaterquality,ecosystems,agriculturalproductionandtraditional livelihoods.Further, theseepageofoil,sewageandotherenginedrivenwastefromthehouseboatsaredirectlydischargedintotheagriculturalland.Moreover,thefarmerswereaffectedbytheincidencesofhealthproblemswhenprolongedcontactwithpollutedwater.

Objectives: The studywas conducted to analyze thepollutionhazarddue tobackwater tourism inKeralastateofSouthernIndia

Keywords: Climate Change,Backwater Tourism,Environmental Pollution,Renewable Energy,Green Economy


C3-P-02

ClimateInformationServicesandItsPotentialonAdaptationandMitigation,LocalAdaptationPlanofAction(LAPA),IntendedNationallyDeterminedContributions(INCD)andBangladeshClimateChangeStrategyandActionPlan(BCCSAP):ExperiencefromFloodAffectedRegionofBangladesh

MuhammadRahaman,ClimateChangeAdaptation,MitigationExperiment&Training(CAMET)Park,Bangladesh

Climateservicesaretheuseofclimateknowledgeandinformationinclimate-smartdevelopment.Thestudy aims to explore the understanding and level of resilience at community level, potentials ofclimate information services inpromoting INDC,BCCSAP, LAPAandalsoadaptationandmitigationparadigmwithsmartmobilephonealongwithinternetschemeviaSMS,OutboundDial(OBD),AppsandCallCentreservicesonagriculture,agrometeorology,weatherforecastandearlywarningsystem.ThestudywasconductedinSouthKharibarivillageofDimlaupazilaunderNilphamaridistrictinwhere100climatevulnerablehouseholdsareusingcustomizedsystemforincreasingresilienceinhouseholdlevelthroughclimate informationservices.Thestudywasconductedthroughexplanatorymethodsincludingcasestudies,bestpracticedocumentation,FGD,KIIandPVA(householdvulnerabilityindex).The study reveals that climate information plays a vital role in climate resilient development athousehold level of the study area through increasedwomen’s participation in participatory actionresearchandformulationofLAPA,helpstostrengthentheirleadershiproleinfoodsecurityandenergysectorwhicharethemajorfocusareaofINDCandBCCSAP.Italsohelpingclimatevulnerablewomento adapt with changing climate through resilient crop farming, homestead gardening, fisheries,livestock,horticultureandpoultryandhelpsthemtodevelopresilientplanningforalternateenergysourcesincocking,lightingandanotherpurposewhichmeetsthemitigationneedsathouseholdlevels.

Keywords: Climate service, adaptation, mitigation, INDC, BCCSAP, LAPA

Parallel Session D: Domain/cross-domain meetings, Convection permitting models

D1: Third Pole Environment: high

resolution simulation/reanalysis and its implication/application

ORAL PRESENTATIONS


D1: Third Pole Environment: high resolution simulation/reanalysis and its implication/application

ChallengesforhighresolutionsimulationovertheHimalayas

ShioriSugimoto,JapanAgencyforMarine-EarthScienceandTechnology,Japan

ShioriSugimoto,JapanAgencyforMarine-EarthScienceandTechnology,Japan;KenichiUeno,UniversityofTsukuba,Japan;TomonoriSato,HokkaidoUniversity,Japan;HiroshiTakahashi,Tokyo

MetropolitanUniversity,Japan;TomoeNasuno,JapanAgencyforMarine-EarthScienceandTechnology,Japan

The latent heat release from cloud convections over theHimalayas and Tibetan Plateau has beenknowntoplayanimportantruleforAsianmonsoonandsub-continentalscaleweathervariabilities.OvertheslopesandfoothillsofHimalayas,nocturnalprecipitationisobservedaswellasthedaytimeorographic precipitation. To simulate cloud-precipitation process over the Himalayas and tounderstanditsphysicalprocesses,weconductedanumericalexperimentusingtheWeatherResearchandForecastingmodel (WRF)withcloud-resolvingresolution. InitialandboundaryconditionswereprovidedfromERA-interim.Theexperimentwassetupwith50layersandahorizontalresolutionwith10kmforouterdomainand2kmforinnerdomain.Fortheouterdomain,acumulusparametrization(CP)wasused.

Accordingtothemerged-IRdataset,thedaytimecumulusconvectionprevailsovertheplainregion(~200mtopography)andthenocturnalandmorningcloudsoccuroversouthoftheHimalayas.TheWRFwith2kmhorizontalresolutioncouldsimulatethenocturnalprecipitationpeakoverthesouthofHimalayas,whichdidnotclearlyfindinthesimulationusing10kmhorizontalresolution.Thediurnalvariationofsimulatedprecipitation inthe innerdomaintendedtobeaffectedbythat intheouterdomain.ComparingwiththeexperimentwithCPfortheouterdomain,diurnalvariationinsimulatedprecipitationisbetterovertheplainregioninanexperimentwithouttheCPbothoftheouterandinnerdomains,whilethenocturnalprecipitationpeakoversouthofHimalayascannotbecapturedwell.WewillconducttheexperimentusingERA5reanalysisdataset,inwhichthereanalysiswouldbedirectly downscaled to 2km horizontal resolution to avoid the effect of atmospheric conditionssimulated in theouterdomain. Then,wewill investigate the topography resolution impacton theprecipitationsimulationandwilldiscussthephysicalprocessestocausenocturnalprecipitationovertheHimalayas.

Keywords: cloud resolving simulation, the Himalayas



Convection-permittingmodelingovertheTibetanPlateau

YanhongGao,NIEER，CAS,China

Basedontheregionalclimatemodel,dynamicaldownscalingisanusefultooltoprovidelocalclimateinformationatfinescale,inparticularlyforareaswithspareobservation.TibetPlateauistheuniquetypicalregionwithscarcityinobservation.Therefore,weconductedaseriesofdynamicaldownscalinghistorical(1979-2011)andfuturesimulations(2006-2100)centeredovertheTibetanPlateau(Gaoetal.2014,2015a,2015b,2016,2017,2018)withthehorizontalresolutionof30km.Thedownscalingwasfoundaddedvaluesinthreeaspects.1)Thegreatoverestimatedprecipitationwasreduced35%averaged over the TP. 2) The observed elevation dependentwarming and 3) the dryness-wetnesscontrastbetweennorthwestandsoutheastwerebettercapturedcomparedtoitslargescaleforcing.Although the advantages of the 30km dynamical downscaling, the profound overestimation inprecipitationstillexists.StudyintheUnitedStates(Rasmussenetal2011;Liuetal.2016)claimedthatconvection-permittingmodelingcouldhighlyimprovesimulationperformance.Hence,aconvection-permittingdynamicaldownscalingwiththeresolutionof4kmwasperformedforoneyearduetothecomputingconsumption.Simulatedprecipitationwillbeevaluatedcomparedtoin-situobservationsandmultipleremotesensingdatasetsaswellas30kmdynamicaldownscaling.

Keywords: Tibetan Plateau,Convection-permitting modeling



Highresolutionsimulationoverthethirdpoleregion

XuZhou,InstituteofTibetanPlateau,CAS,China

XuZhou,InstituteofTibetanPlateau,CAS,China;KunYang,YanWang,Tsinghuauniversity,China

Accurate description of precipitation over mountainous is crucial in the hydrological and disasterstudies.Globalreanalysisdatasetscouldnotsatisfytherequirementsinthesestudiesduetothecoarseresolution,while thecalibratedsatelliteproductsmayalsohavesystematicerrorsover thestationsparseregion,especiallyovertheTibetanPlateau.Simulationwithregionalnumericalmodelsprovidesanalternativeand isexpected toprovideamoreaccuratedescriptionon the temporalandspatialpattern inprecipitation.Thecomplex topographyandsomemeso-microscaleprocesses shouldbemostlyresolvedwithhighhorizontalresolution.Thisworkwillconductahighresolutionsimulation(up to about 3km) over the Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding. The simulated precipitation isexpectedtogiveamoredetaileddescriptionoftheprecipitation,whichwouldbebeneficialforthehydrologicalanddisasterstudies.

Keywords: WRF, Tibetan Plateau



SimulateddiurnalcycleofsummerprecipitationovertheTibetanPlateauatgray-zonegridspacing

TinghaiOu,UniversityofGothenburg,Sweden

TinghaiOu,DeliangChen,UniversityofGothenburg,Sweden;XingchaoChen,PennsylvaniaStateUniversity,UnitedStates;ChangguiLin,UniversityofGothenburg,Sweden;KunYang,Tsinghua

University,China;Hui-WenLai,UniversityofGothenburg,Sweden;FuqingZhang,PennsylvaniaStateUniversity,UnitedStates

TheTibetanPlateau(TP),alsoreferredtoasthe“ThirdPole”oftheearth,isthe“watertowerofAsia”.TheWeatherResearchandForecastmodel(WRF)withspectralnudginghasbeenusedtosimulatewarm-seasonprecipitationof2014overtheTPatthegray-zonegridspacing(9km),andtoevaluatethemodel’sability insimulatingthediurnalcycleofprecipitation.Twogroupsofexperimentshavebeenundertaken:1)simulationsdrivenbytwodifferentglobalreanalyseswithoutacumulusscheme(CU),namelythehighresolutionlatestversionofglobalreanalysisoftheEuropeanCentreforMedium-RangeWeatherForecasts(ECMWF),ERA5,anditspreviousversion,ERA-Interim(ERAI);2)simulationswithdifferentCUs,includingGrell-3DEnsemble(Grell),NewSimplifiedArakawa-Schubert(NSAS),andMultiscaleKain-Fritsch(MSKF).Evaluatedagainstradiosondeobservations,itisfoundthattheERA5hasbetterabilitytoreproduceupper-levelrelativehumidityduringthesummermonths(June-August)comparedtothatoftheERAI.However,thishaslittleimpactonthesimulatedsummerprecipitationovertheTP.AllthethreesimulationswithCU,especiallytheGrellandNSAS,overestimatesummerprecipitationwithanearlypeakofhourlyprecipitationfrequencyduringaday.Bothno-CUexperimentand experimentwith a scale aware CU, namely theMSKF, have their advantage in simulation thediurnal cycle of summer precipitation over the TP,with the no-CU experiment capture better thediurnalcycleofprecipitationfrequencyandtheMSKFexperimentsbetterreproducedthediurnalcycleofprecipitationintensity.

Keywords: Tibetan Plateau, gray-zone, regional dynamical downscaling, diurnal cycle, cumulus scheme



EffectsofplanetaryboundarylayerparameterizationsonhighresolutionregionalclimatesimulationoverTibePlateau

JianpingTang,SchoolofAtmosphericSciences,NanjingUniversity,China

JianpingTang,PeifengZhou,GangLiu,SchoolofAtmosphericSciences,NanjingUniversity,Nanjing,China

TheTibetanPlateau (TP),with an average altitudeof over 4000m, has a profound impact on theweatherandclimate.However,duetoitscomplexterrain,theobservationstationsovertheTParespareandunevenlydistributed,makingitdifficulttorepresentthespatialvariabilityoflocalclimate,especially for precipitation. Many studies have shown that with the improvement of horizontalresolution,theregionalclimatesimulationscanbeimproved.Tobetterunderstandtheprecipitationvariability, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to simulate the summerprecipitationof1998and2006overtheTP.Theyear1998isthepeakyearwhile2006isthevalleyyearofprecipitation.Toinvestigatethesensitivityofsummerprecipitationtoboundarylayerschemes,differentboundary layer schemesarecompared in this study.The regionalclimatesimulationsarecomparedwithbothhigh-resolutionCMORPHsatellitedataandin-situobservations.ToevaluatetheperformanceofWRFmodelovertheTP,twostatistics,CORR(correlationcoefficient)andRMSE(rootmeansquareerror),arecalculatedatdifferentspatialandtemporalscalestocomparethedifferencesbetween model simulations and observations. The most suitable boundary layer scheme forprecipitationsimulationovertheTPisobtained.

Keywords: high resolution, planetary boundary layer, regional climate simulation



SimulationofmonsoonprecipitationovertheNorthWesternHimalayausingWRF

AshishNavale,IndianInstituteofRemoteSensing,India

AshishNavale,IndianInstituteofRemoteSensing,India;CharuSingh,IndianInstituteofRemoteSensing,India;SachinBudakoti,IndianInstituteofTechnology,Bombay,India;SanjeevKumarSingh,

IndianInstituteofRemoteSensing,India

TheHimalaya,alsoknownasthethirdpoleplaysanimportantroleinderivingtheclimateofIndiansub-continent.Thehighmountainrangesaffectthelocalconvectivesystemswhichinturnaffecttheprecipitationintensityanddistributionofthisregion.TheNorthWesternHimalaya(NWH)hostssomeofthehighestmountainpeakswhichforceorographicascentandorographicblockingofmoisture-ladenairwhich leadstocloudburstandheavyrainfallevents.Manyofthemajorriversofthesub-continent like Ganga, Indus and Yamuna originate in the NWH and therefore make the study ofprecipitationinthisregionveryimportant.Duetotheruggedtopography,theraingaugenetworkintheHimalayaisverypoorthereforemakingitdifficulttostudytherainfallinthisregion.Also,thehighelevationmakesitdifficultforremotelysenseddatatoaccuratelyrepresentrainfall.Insuchacontext,theuseofthehigh-resolutionregionalmodeltostudytherainfallappearstobeaviableoption.TheNumericalWeatherPredictionmodelswith itsforecastingskillswillalsoproveuseful forthesocio-economic development of the region. Therefore, the present study employs, National Center forAtmosphericResearch(NCAR)WeatherResearchandForecasting(WRF)modeltoassessitscapabilitytosimulaterainfallovertheNorthWesternHimalaya.Simulationswerecarriedoutforthemonsoonseasonof2017overtheNWHusingmultiplenesteddomainsof45,15and5kmresolutionextendingfrom65°Eto92°Eand18°Nto40°N.ReanalysisdatafromNCEP/NCARareusedfortheinitialandboundary conditions along with High-resolution topographic datasets. The model outputs arecomparedwiththedailygriddedrainfallproductprovidedbyIMDat0.25°x0.25°resolutionandthesatellite-basedGPM IMERGand INSAT-3DderivedHE rain.All thedata is resampled to themodelresolutionof5km.Theresultsshowedagoodcorrelationbetweenthesimulatedandobservationaldata.Also,arelationshipbetweentopographyandrainfallwasestablishedwithmorerainfalloccurringoverthewindwardascomparedtotheleewardsidebuttendstooverestimatetheintensityofrainfalloverhigherelevations.However,theWRFsimulationwasabletocapturethefine-scalestructureofrainfall satisfactorily over the NWH region. The study, therefore, suggests that theWRFmodel iscapableofmodellingtheorographicrainfallwithreasonableaccuracyoverruggedterrain.

Keywords: Orographic rainfall, North Western Himalaya, WRF, GPM IMERG, Topography



Observation-modelintegrationforsimulatingwatercycleintheTibetanPlateau

KunYang,TsinghuaUniversity,China

Asian water tower understanding is constrained by the lack of high-resolution and high-accuracyprecipitationdata,butcurrentGCMsandRCMsmuchover-predictprecipitation.OuroverallgoalistobuildaregionalclimatemodelingsystemtosimulateprecipitationrealisticallyfortheTibetanPlateau.Inthistalk,wepresentourfieldexperimentsthatmeasureprecipitablewatervapor,laketemperatureprofile and rainfall. With these measurements, high quality data and improved simulations arepresented,includingselectinglakemodelthroughmodelinter-comparisons,implementingorographicturbulentdrag schemeandoptimizinghigh-resolution simulations for complex terrainofHimalayaRange.Finally,weproposeanintegratedstrategytoimproveplateauclimatesimulationcapability.

Keywords: complex terrain, lake effect


D1: Third Pole Environment: high

resolution simulation/reanalysis and its implication/application



KUKULIES Julia Classificationofprecipitationfeaturesassociatedwithmeso-scaleconvectivesystemsintheThirdPoleregion D1-P-01

LAI Hui-WenDownscaledsummerconvectiveactivitiesandprecipitationovertheTibetanPlateauthroughensemble-baseddataassimilation

D1-P-02

THOMAS Liby SensitivityofsoilmoisturetorainfallsimulationsassociatedwithwesterndisturbancesovernorthIndia D1-P-03

TIWARI PushpRaj FromGCM’Storiverflow:LinkingpatternstoprocessesoverthewesternHimalayas D1-P-04



D1-P-01

Classificationofprecipitationfeaturesassociatedwithmeso-scaleconvectivesystemsintheThirdPoleregion

JuliaKukulies,UniversityofGothenburg,Sweden

JuliaKukulies,UniversityofGothenburg,Sweden;DeliangChen,UniversityofGothenburg,Sweden;JianpingTang,NanjingUniversity,China

TheThirdPole(TP)referstotheTibetanPlateauandallthemountainrangesthatsurroundit,asitactsastheworld’slargestfreshwaterstorageaftertheArcticandAntarctica.Theregionischaracterizedbyfasterwarmingratescomparedtoglobalaverage,whichhasledtovigoroushydroclimaticchangesduring the past decades. These changes include changes in large-scale atmospheric moisturetransport, a generally increasing precipitation trend and an acceleratedhydrological cycle throughincreased local moisture recycling. Since the plateau is marked by intensive surface heating andsufficientmoisturesupplythroughmid-latitudewesterliesandthemonsooncirculation,convectionisakeycomponent forthewatercycle.Furthermore,theTPhasaclearseasonalcycleofconvectiveclouds and precipitation, which is primarily due to the impact of the large-scale atmosphericcirculation.DuringthesummermonsoonseasonbetweenMayandSeptember,meso-scalesystemssuchasTibetanPlateauvortices(TPV)andTibetanconvectivesystems(TCS)havebeenfoundtobethemajorprecipitation-producingsystemsintheregion.Thesesystemsarethereforedirectlylinkedto river runoff and water resources, as well as to severe storm and flooding events which affectdownstreamlocatedsocieties.Furthermore,meso-scaleweathersystemsintheTPregionencompasssystems at different spatial and temporal scales which originate from various thermodynamicprocesses.Yet,noclearrelationshipbetweenprecipitationcharacteristicsandthedifferentsystemshasbeenestablished.Forexample,itisunknownwhichsystemtypeshavethelargestenvironmentalimpactofpersistingheavyprecipitation. Inaddition, there isa lackofknowledgeabouthowtheseorganizedformsofconvectionarelinkedtothesynopticbackgroundconditionsandsurfacefeatures.

InordertodrawmorerobustconclusionsabouthydroclimaticchangesintheTPregion,itisthuscrucialtounderstandwhatroleprecipitationinducedbymeso-scalesystemshasincomparisontosmall-scaleconvection and how possible changes in large-scale circulation would affect these systems. Usingdifferent high-resolution satellite and reanalysis precipitation products, we identified and trackedareas of meso-scale precipitation based on contiguity, rain rates and time persistence. We thensegmented these tracked precipitation areas into different groups and analyzed the spatial andtemporalpatternsofprecipitationfeatures, inordertoevaluatethepossible linkagetomeso-scaleweathersystems.Inadditiontothesegmentation,weperformedaclusteranalysisandcomparedtheresultstoclustersoflarge-scaleandconvectiveprecipitationintherecentlycreatedregionalreanalysisforChina(CNRR),toseehowmuchoftheprecipitationingeneralcanbeattributedtoconvection.

Thisworkprovidesthefirststepforamorecomprehensiveanalysisofthesynopticenvironmentwhichfavorsmeso-scaleweathersystemsandassociatedprecipitation. Inordertoestablishamoreclear

relationshipbetweendifferenttypesofmeso-scaleconvectivesystemsandextremeprecipitationIntheTPregion,additionalparametersfromtheregionalreanalysiswillbeincludedintheanalysisbylinkingtheprecipitationsegmentsandclusterstovorticity,updraft,pressureandwindfields.

Keywords:extremeprecipitation,mesoscaleconvectivesystems



D1-P-02

DownscaledsummerconvectiveactivitiesandprecipitationovertheTibetanPlateauthroughensemble-baseddataassimilation

Hui-WenLai,UniversityofGothenburg,Sweden

Hui-WenLai,DeliangChen,UniversityofGothenburg,Sweden;FuqingZhang,ThePennsylvaniaStateUniversity,UnitedStates;JieHe,NanjingUniversityofInformationScienceandTechnology,

China;TinghaiOu,UniversityofGothenburg,Sweden

SummerconvectivesystemsandassociatedprecipitationovertheTibetanPlateau(TP)arecrucialforthe regional hydrological cycle and water management. They could also affect the large-scalecirculation, such asmid-level troughs, jetstreaks and the Asianmonsoon. The TP has experiencedamplifiedwarminginrecentdecadeswhichcouldchangetheconvectivesystems,butexactlyhowtheconvectivesystemandprecipitationhavechangedandwhatmechanismsbehindthechangesremaintobedeterminedandunderstood. Insituobservationsaresparse inthis regionandcurrentglobalreanalysis datasets have too coarse spatial and temporal resolutions to accurately represent themesoscaleconvectivesystemsoverthishighmountainousarea.Tobetterunderstandtheconvectiveactivities over the complex terrain, we use a high-resolution numerical weather model to studysynoptic-andmesoscalecirculation including theconvective systemsand relatedprecipitationandover the TP region.We used the convection-permittingWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF)model and a regional data assimilation system based on the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) thatassimilates observations from the Global Telecommunication System to build a high-resolutionregionalreanalysiswithagridspacingfrom30kmdownto10km.Herewewillpresentpreliminaryresults from theWRF-EnKF reanalysis for the summermonths (June throughAugust)of 2015. Thereanalysis results are evaluated against independent observations and compared with two globalreanalyses,namelyERA-InterimandERA-5.WefocusouranalysesonthecharacteristicsofconvectivesystemsovertheTPandtheirphysicalmechanisms.

Keywords: Mesoscale convective systems, Tibetan Plateau, WRF, Data assimilation



D1-P-03

SensitivityofsoilmoisturetorainfallsimulationsassociatedwithwesterndisturbancesovernorthIndia

LibyThomas,CochinUniversityofScienceandTechnology,India

LibyThomas,CochinUniversityofScienceandTechnology,India;SKDash,IndianInstituteofTechnologyDelhi,India;UCMohanty,IndianInstituteofTechnologyBhubaneswar,India;

CABabu,CochinUniversityofScienceandTechnology,India

WinterprecipitationovernorthIndiaisimportantforagriculture,horticulture,transport,domesticuseand power generation. North India mainly gets winter precipitation mainly from the WesternDisturbances(WDs).ThesensitivityofsoilmoisturetothesimulationofrainfallduringeightWDsareinvestigatedusingWeatherResearchandForecastingmodel.ForthispurposeonecontrolexperimentisdoneforeachofeightcasesofWDswiththesuitablecombinationofparameterizationschemes.Then the simulations are repeated with 10 % increase and 10 % decrease in the soil moisturerespectively.Theareaaveragedrainfallencompassingdomain(72oE-83oEto27.5oN-38.5oN)frommodel simulations are comparedwith the TRMMobservations. Results indicate that there is 1.7%increaseinprecipitationfromthecontrolsimulationbytheenhancementof10%soilmoisture.Therainfallisdecreasedby1.4%whensoilmoistureisreducedby10%.ModelsimulatedvaluesofrainfallarealsocomparedwithcorrespondingIndiaMeteorologicalDepartmentobservedvaluesatdifferentstations.Itisobservedthatthesimulatedrainfallcorrespondingtostationobservationsincreasewiththeenhancementinsoilmoistureandrainfalldecreaseswiththereductioninsoilmoisture.Thewindsatvariouslevels,meansealevelpressureandrelativehumiditypatternsarereasonablywellsimulatedbymodel.

Keywords: western disturbances, rainfall, soil moisture



D1-P-04

FromGCM’Storiverflow:LinkingpatternstoprocessesoverthewesternHimalayas

P.R.Tiwari,CentreforAtmosphericandClimatePhysicsResearch,UniversityofHertfordshire,UK

P.R.Tiwari,CentreforAtmosphericandClimatePhysicsResearch,UniversityofHertfordshire,UnitedKingdom;S.C.Kar,NationalCentreforMediumRangeWeatherForecasting,India

Studieshave shown that theHimalayan climate system is sensitive to globalwarming and climatechange.Mostofthesnowfalloverthisregioncomesfromwintertimeprecipitation.Thisprecipitation,inturn,helpsinmaintainingtheglaciers,whichserveasthevaststorehouseoffreshwatersupplytomillions of people downstream throughout the year through rivers of western Himalayan origin.Therefore,foracountrylikeIndiathatgetsmorethan50%ofitsfreshwatersupplyfromtheriversofHimalayanorigin,thequestionariseswhatwouldhappentoregionalhydrologyandthedownstreamwaterflowinawarmingenvironment?Sotoanswerthisquestionanintegratedapproachbasedonlinkingpatternstoprocessesisappliedhere.Theaimofthepresentstudyisinthree-folds.Firstly,toaccess the predictive skill of state-of-the-art CMIP5 models and identify forecast windows ofopportunity. Secondly, to reproduce the patterns of the GCM at higher spatial resolution, bothdynamical(ICTP-RegCMnestedwithHadGEM3-ES2at25kmresolution)andstatisticaldownscaling(basedonCanonicalCorrelationAnalysis)approacheswithbiascorrectionhavebeenapplied.Thirdly,ahydrologicalmodel(SWAT)hasbeenusedtosimulatetheSatlujriverstreamflowforthepresentandfutureclimateusingthebiascorrecteddownscaleddataobtainedfromRegCM.Finally,whyprocessbasedinvestigationanditsimplementationisimportantandhowCORDEXframeworkhasplayedakeyroleinaddressingsuchissuesishighlighted.

Keywords: Western Himalayas, Hydroclimate, Coupled dynamical system


D3: Regional responses to global

warmings of 1.5 and 2°C

ORAL PRESENTATIONS


D3: Regional responses to global warmings of 1.5 and 2°C

ProjectedchangesinseasonalprecipitationextremesinMalaysiaunderglobalwarmingof2°Cand4°C

EsterSalimun,CentreforEarthSciencesandEnvironment,FacultyofScienceandTechnology,UniversitiKebangsaanMalaysia,Bangi,Selangor,Malaysia

EsterSalimun,FredolinTangang,CentreforEarthSciencesandEnvironment,FacultyofScienceandTechnology,UniversitiKebangsaanMalaysia,BangiSelangor,Malaysia;SupariSupari,CenterforClimateChangeInformation,AgencyforMeteorologyClimatologyandGeophysics(BMKG),10720Jakarta,Indonesia;ChungJingXiang,NgaiSheauTieh,LiewJuNeng,CentreforEarthSciencesandEnvironment,FacultyofScienceandTechnology,UniversitiKebangsaanMalaysia,Bangi,Selangor,

Malaysia

This study provides assessment impact of climate change on projected changes in seasonalprecipitation extremes in Malaysia at warming levels of 2°C and 4°C based on the multi-modelsimulations of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling / Coordinated Regional ClimateDownscaling Experiment Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX-SEA). Three indices of extremeprecipitation are considered i.e., are the consecutive dry days (CDD), the number of days dailyprecipitation exceeded 20mm (R20mm) and themaximum 1-day precipitation total (RX1day). Theensemble mean of 10 simulations showed reasonable performance in simulating observedcharacteristicsofextremeprecipitationduringthehistoricalperiodof1986–2005.Theyear2041wastakenastheyearwhenglobalmeantemperaturereaches2°Candyear2084for4°Cwarmingabovepre-industrial level under unmitigated climate change scenario based on Karmalkar and Bradley(2017).Resultsindicatethatbothperiod(2031-2051and2074–2094)havelargesignificantprominentchangesespeciallyduringtheperiodof2074–2094.Robust increases inCDDimply impendingdrierconditionoverbothPeninsularandEastMalaysiaandenhancedunder4°Cglobalwarming.IncreasesinRX1daysuggestmoreintenserainfalleventsovermostofMalaysiaandintensifiedunder4°CglobalwarmingespeciallyoverEastMalaysiaduringJJAandMAMseasons.BothPeninsularandEastMalaysiaareprojectedtoexperienceincreasesinCDD,R20mmandRX1day,suggestingMalaysiamayfacemoreseriousrepercussionsinfuture.

Keywords: Precipitation Extremes,regional climate downscaling,multi-model ensemble,future changes,Global warming



ModellingofvulnerabilityandadaptivecapacityofCaribbeansmallislanddevelopingstates

MariumAlleyne,UniversityoftheWestIndies,CaveHillCampus,Barbados,Barbados

MariumAlleyne,JohnCharelry,UniversityoftheWestIndies,CaveHillCampus,Barbados

One of the biggest challenges for Small Island Developing States (SIDS) to Climate Change is thedisproportional impact that those changes pose to the islands. Themodelling of the dynamismofclimate changevulnerability for SIDS should therefore consider the transformationof the intricateinteractiveprocesses(socio-economic,political,andenvironmentalconditions)thatareuniquetotheindividual SIDS. Some vulnerability and capacity assessments tools andmethodologies have beendevelopedtoassistintheunderstandingofthoseimplications.Notwithstanding,ithasbecomeevidentthatthedynamicapproachtoprovidingcurrentinformationandestablishingcontinuityisnotalwaysasignificantfeatureandtheconsiderationoftheSIDS’contextualvulnerabilityandtheintegrationofinherentcharacteristicsofdomainareoftenminimal.Thisresearchpresentsamorecomprehensiveapproach to addressing this gap, through the development of a Climate Change Vulnerability andCapacityAssessmentModelforCaribbeanSmallIslandDevelopingStates(CC-VCAM-CaribSIDS).ThismethodconsolidatessomeofthedifferentmethodologiestoultimatelyprovideavisualizationofthevulnerabilityandcapacityassessmentwithinthespecifiedSIDSandthecreationofawide-rangingtoolwhich could provide information to policy holders, technocrats and even the average interestedenthusiast. By defining a baseline normal using observed and modelled data; integrating climateprojections;developmentandcategorisationof vulnerabilityprofilesusingGeographic InformationSoftware;andtheintegrationofriskandvulnerabilityequationsintothemodel,theuserispresentedwith amore comprehensive outputwith particular relevance to the peculiarities of the SIDS. It isexpected that the CC-VCAM-CaribSIDS will make a significant contribution to understanding thevulnerabilityofCaribbeanSIDS,specificallytoclimatechangescenarios.Itisfurtherexpectedthatthiswillserveasafundamentalmodeltoassistinguidingtheprocesstowardssustainabilityandviability,asitprovidesthefoundationfortheidentificationoftheoptimumrestorativeactiontoreduceimpactsthrougheffectiveimplementation.

Keywords: climate change,vulnerability,modelling,adaptive capacity,SIDS



ProjectionandpossiblecausesofsummerprecipitationinEasternChinausingself-organizingmap

MeiLi,NanjingUniversityofInformationScienceandTechnology,Nanjing,China

MeiLi,ZhihongJiang,NanjingUniversityofInformationScienceandTechnology,Nanjing,China

Self-organizing map (SOM) is applied to downscale the summer daily precipitation over Yangtze-Huaihe river basin in Eastern China in this study, including evaluation, ensemble projection andphysicalexplanations.TheevaluationshowsthatSOMcanevidentlypromotetheabilityofsimulationintermsofprobabilitydistributionofdailyrainfallandspatialdistributionofrainfallindices,aswellasthe consistency ofmulti-model simulation, demonstrating the "added value" to raw outputs fromGCMs.Inthe21stcenturyunderRCP4.5Scenario,dailyrainfallatroughly75%sitesisprojectedtoshifttowardslargevalue.Intheearly21stcentury(2016-2035),theprecipitationincentralbasincanbeincrease,yetthesignificantdecreasesoccuroverthemiddlereachesaswellaspartialsoutheastbasin.Inthemiddlestage(2046-2065),theareaofraisingprecipitationexpandstothemiddleYangtzeRiver.Astothelaststage(2081-2100),themeanandextremeprecipitationexperiencesanoverallincrease,leadingsignificantraisesofextremeindicesbyalmost30%.Moreover,thetotalprecipitationinlowerreachesandsouthofitmayincreasefrom8%at1.5°Cglobalwarmingto15%at2°C,whiletheintensityenhancement ismoreclearly inthemiddlereachesdueto0.5°Cadditionalwarming.Basedontheanalysisofpossiblecausesofprecipitationchange, theregionalsynopticpatterns in the futurearefoundwithhighstability,suggestingprecipitationchangeininterestedregionismainlyrelatedtothefrequencyvariationofregionalpatterns.Theoverallintensificationoflarge-valueprecipitationin21stcentury is linked to the raise of extremewet patternwith closely South Asia High andwestwardWestern Pacific Subtropical High, as well as the reduction of extreme dry pattern with far-awaySubtropicalHighandSouthAsiaHigh.

Keywords: Statistical downscaling,Self-organizing map,Precipitation projection



FrequencyofextremeElNiñoandLaNiñaeventsunderglobalwarming

OmidAlizadehChoobari,InstituteofGeophysics,UniversityofTehran,Iran

TheElNiño-SouthernOscillation (ENSO) isaquasi-periodicalnaturalphenomenonoccurring in thetropicalPacificwhosecharacteristicscanbeinfluencedbyglobalwarming.Usingoutputsof14generalcirculation models (GCMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5),thenumberofextremeElNiñoandLaNiñaeventsareanalyzedforthe50-yearperiodinthefuture(2050-2099)undertheRCP4.5andRCP8.5scenariosrelativetothatduringthehistoricalperiod1950-1999.AnalysesarebasedontheOceanicNiño Index(ONI)andthemodifiedCai indexthat isdefinedinthisstudy.OurapproachdeviatesfromthatofCaietal.(2014)andCaietal.(2015b)whousedrainfallandseasurfacetemperature (SST) thresholdsto identifyextremeElNiñoandLaNiñaevents, respectively. Analysis of SST and rainfall in the tropical Pacific indicated that under globalwarming the eastern equatorial Pacificwarms faster than the surrounding oceanwaters,which isaccompaniedwithanincreaseofrainfallintheeasternequatorialPacific.Thus,changesinthemeanstateofthetropicalPacificclimatewillbelikeanElNiñopatternunderglobalwarming.ByapplyingtheONI, it is found that the number of very strong El Niño events slightly increases under globalwarmingand the rateof increase in thenumberofextremeLaNiñaevents isgreater than thatofextremeElNiñoevents.ApplyingthemodifiedCaiindexshowsaslightdecreaseofextremeElNiñoeventsandaslightincreaseofextremeLaNiñaeventsunderglobalwarming.Thus,resultsofseveralpreviousstudieswhichconcludedthatthenumberofextremeElNiñoeventsnearlydoublesunderglobalwarmingarenotsupportedbyresultsofthisstudy.

Keywords: El Niño-Southern Oscillation,Extreme El Niño,Extreme La Niña,Global Warming,CMIP5



ChangesinextremetemperatureinChinaunder1.5and2.0°CglobalwarmingscenariosassimulatedbyHAPPImulti-modelensemble

CenxiaoSun,NUIST,China

ZhihongJiang,CenxiaoSun,WeiLi,NUIST,China

The1.5°CglobalwarmingtargetproposedbytheParisAgreementhasraisedworldwideattention.However, previous studies are mainly based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)simulations,which canbe consideredas ‘transient simulations’ andcannot reflect the responseofclimatewhenglobalwarmingstabilizedat1.5°Crelativetopre-industrialleveldirectivity.Inthisstudy,weusedatasetsfrom‘HalfadegreeAdditionalwarming,PrognosisandProjected Impacts’ (HAPPI)project,toanalyzetheresponseofextremetemperatureinChinatostabilized1.5°Cand2.0°Cglobalwarming. The results are as follows: (1)When global warming stabilizes at 1.5°C/2.0°C, the area-averagedmean temperatureoverChina increasesbyabout0.94°C/1.59°C relative to thehistoricalclimate(2006-2015).AreaswithmoreextremetemperatureincreasearemainlylocatedinNorthwestandNortheastChina,whilethewarmspellduration increasesmostly inSoutheastChina.Underanadditional 0.5°Cwarming, the changes ofmean temperature and all extreme indices are larger intransientsimulationsthaninstabilizedsimulations,indicatingthatpreviousstudiesbasedontransientsimulations may overestimate the response to an additional 0.5°C warming; meanwhile theuncertaintyrangesofextremeindicesarenarrowerinstabilizedsimulations.(2)Whenglobalwarmingstabilizesat1.5°C/2.0°C,thereturnperiodofarea-averaged100-yearextremehoteventoverChinainthehistoricalclimateis6year/1.73year,andthereturnperiodofarea-averaged10-yearextremecoldeventis50year/238year,whichmaynothappenbasically.Andtheuncertaintiesoftherisksforarea-averagedextremeeventsobviouslyreduceinstabilizedsimulationscomparedtotransientsimulationsresults. On regional scale, the risks for extreme hot events and cold eventsmainly change in theTibetan Plateau, and the risks for extreme cold events also reduce obviously in Northeast andSoutheastChina.

Keywords: 1.5°C global warming, Extreme temperature,HAPPI,China



ProjectedchangeofmeanandextremeclimateeventsoverChinaunder1.5°Cand2°Cbasedonmachinelearning

LiTong,NanjingUniversityofInformationScienceandTechnology,China

LiTong,NanjingUniversityofInformationScienceandTechnology,China;江志红,NanjingUniversityofInformationScienceandTechnology,China;赵立龙,NanjingUniversityofInformationScienceand

Technology,China

Four machine learning approaches，random forest (RF), support vector regression (SVM), neuralnetworks(NN),andlinearregression(LR)areusedforCMIP5multi-modelensemblestoinvestigatethechangeofmeanandextremetemperatureandprecipitationeventsoverChina(relativeto1986‒2005)under1.5°Cand2°Cwarminglevels(relativeto1861‒1900)underRCP8.5scenarios.Duringtheverificationperiod,compared tomulti-modelensemblemean (MME), thecasesbasedonmachinelearningachievedsignificantimprovementsinsimulatingtemporalandspatialpattern,whichTaylorskill scores exceed 0.9 and Interannual variability indicators are significantly lower. Among them,randomforestoutperformsallotherensembles.

Forfutureprojectionunder1.5°Cand2°Cwarming,resultsshowthattheincreasesinmean(TAS)andextreme temperature (TXx, TNn) over China higher than globalmean,will increase about 1/1.6°C,1.2/1.8°C, 1.1/1.9°C, particularly over Northwest China, Northeast China and the Tibetan Plateau.These regions are also climate change sensitive areas to an additional 0.5ᵒC warming. The maindifferencebetweenmachinelearningapproachesandMMEistheinconsistentwarmingresponseindifferentregionsoverChina,theprojectedincreasesoftemperatureinTAS,TXxandTNnareobviouslylowerexcepttheclimatechangesensitiveareas.Forthemean(PR)andextremeprecipitation(R95P,RX5DAY), results show a significant increase inmean andwet extreme indices, but the increasingamplitudeandsensitiveareasarenotidenticalfordifferentmachinelearningapproachesandMME.Forannualaverageprecipitation(PR),fourmachinelearningapproachesshowthechangeinWestandNortheastChinacanexceed20%,butthedryerareasareinconsistent(EasterncoastalareaprojectedbyRF,NorthChinaprojectedbySVMandNN,butYangtzeRiverbasinprojectedbyMME).Forextremeprecipitation (R95P and RX5DAY), the change projected by NN is -10%--10%, some areas innorthwesternChinawillbecomedryer;butallothermachinelearningcasesshowthechangewillbeincreasedby10%--40%,similartoMME.

Keywords: 1.5°C and 2 ˚C warming,multi-model ensemble,machine leaning,mean and extreme climate events



EuropeanclimatechangeatdifferentglobalwarminglevelsasderivedfromalargeensembleofEURO-CORDEXsimulations.

ErikKjellström,SMHI,Sweden

ErikKjellström,GrigoryNikulin,GustavStrandberg,SMHI,Sweden

EURO-CORDEXhascontributedtoanunprecedentednumberofregionalclimatemodelsimulationsathighhorizontalresolution(12.5kmgridspacing)forEurope.Here,wepresentresultsfromrelatedtoanumberofimpact-relevantindices.Theresultsindicateconsiderablenear-surfacewarmingalreadyat 1.5°C globalwarming exceeding that of the globalmean inmost parts of Europe. Changes arebecomingincreasinglymorepronouncedandmorerobustwithintheensembleat2°Candathigherlevelsofglobalwarming.ForsomeindicesandpartsofEurope,however,therearenorobustchangeseven at higher warming levels. Notably for winter, the changes inmany indices are shown to bemodulatedbychangesinmeansealevelpressureindicatingastrongrelationshipwiththelarge-scalecirculationanditsinternalvariabilityasgivenbythechoiceofglobalclimatemodel.Forsomeotherindicesandinotherseasons,however,wefindstrongerdependencyonthechoiceofregionalclimatemodel indicating that local and regional processes have a strong impact on the simulated climatechange.Inthiscontext,itisalsoclearthattheRCMscanaltertheclimatechangesignalfromtheGCMinasignificantway.Bycomparingtoa largerensembleofCMIP5GCMswefindthattheRCMscanalter the results leading either to attenuation or amplification of the climate change signal in theunderlyingGCMs.

Keywords: Climate indices,Global warming levels


D3: Regional responses to global

warmings of 1.5 and 2°C


LAST NAME FIRST NAME TITLE POSTERNUMBER

CAO Yipeng Detecting regions highly sensitive to extreme events in China under 1.5℃ and 2℃ warming scenarios: analysis of NCAR CESM low-warming experiments

D3-P-01

CLARKE Leonardo Contributions of solar radiation management to Caribbean climate D3-P-02

DIKE Victor Future extreme temperature changes over West Africa linked global warming intensity D3-P-03

DUDUYEMI Olubunmi Assessment of thermal stress adaptability in commercial layer production in hot and humid climate D3-P-04

EGBEBIYI Temitope Potential impact of 1.5oC, 2oC and 3oC global warming on planting season and crop suitability over West Africa

D3-P-05

HAN Zhenyu Ensemble projection of temperature and precipitation under the 1.5°C warming in East Asia using regional climate models

D3-P-06

HUANG Fang Evaluation of CMIP5 Wind-Vector fields and Its Relationship with Precipitation in the Asian-Australian Monsoon region

D3-P-07

LIANHUA Zhu Contribution Assessment of Multiple Bias Correction for Summer Extreme Precipitation in BCC-CSM1.1-m over Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin in China

D3-P-08

MAURE Genito The southern African climate under 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming as simulated by CORDEX regional climate models Withdrawal

D3-P-09

NDIAYE ousmane Onset variation under 1.5 and 2.0 degree D3-P-10

TANGANG Fredolin Enhanced dryness and drought over Indonesian region under global warming of 2oC and 4oC and possible combined effects of climate change and El Niño

D3-P-11

TYAGI Neetu Climate Change projection for the Uttarakhand, India using CORDEX South Asia model D3-P-12

VONDOU DERBETINI Appolinaire

Changes in the land-atmosphere interaction in the Congo Basin: processes driving the decline of precipitation recycling ratio under 1.5°C and 2°C global warming levels in CORDEX Model

D3-P-13

WANG Yixin Detecting regions highly sensitive to drought events in China based on multiple soil moisture data D3-P-14

WINDMANAGDA Sawadogo Impact of global warming levels on photovoltaic power generation over West Africa D3-P-15

WU Runqi Fine Structure and Sensitive Areas in China Under1.5/2.0℃ Warming as Indicated by Extreme Climate Events

D3-P-16

XIUTING Piao Peak Forecast of Carbon Emissions under Climate Change Background: A Case Study D3-P-17

ZHAO lilong Projected change of precipitation over China under 1.5°C and 2°C based on model performance and independence

D3-P-18



D3-P-01

DetectingregionshighlysensitivetoextremeeventsinChinaunder1.5°Cand2°Cwarmingscenarios:analysisofNCARCESMlow-warmingexperiments

YipengCao,SchoolofAtmosphericScience,NanjingUniversity,China

YipengCao,SchoolofAtmosphericScience,NanjingUniversity,China;RunqiWu,SchoolofAtmosphericScience,NanjingUniversity,China;WeidongGuo,SchoolofAtmosphericScience,Nanjing

University,China

In2015,theParisAgreementproposedagoaltopursueeffortstokeepglobaltemperaturesbelow2℃abovepreindustriallevelsandbetterbelow1.5℃bytheendoftwentyfirstcentury.Asthistargetisworldwideaccepted,itiscrucialtoassessthedifferenceinglobalclimatechangesunder1.5°Cand2°Cwarming conditions. Extremeweather and climate events have a greater impact on both thenaturalenvironmentandthehumansociety,soitisnecessarytoassessthechangesinextremeeventsunderdifferentwarmingscenariosoverChina.

In 2017, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) low-warming experiment for the first timesimulatedtheprocessofglobalmeantemperatureachievingthe2°Cand1.5°CgoalsinlinewiththeParis targets in the late twenty-first Century. We analyzed the output data from the CESM Low-Warmingexperiment.OurresultsshowthatthefrequencyandintensityofextremehightemperatureeventsinChinawillincreaseunderthebackgroundofglobalwarming.TheTibetanPlateauandsemi-aridareasinnorthernChinawillbemorelikelytosufferextremehightemperatureeventswithhigherintensityandfrequency.Whilecontrollingwarmingbelow1.5℃cansignificantlyreducetheinfluenceofextremehightemperatureeventsintheseareas.ItindicatesthattheTibetanPlateauandsemi-aridareasinnorthernChinaareverylikelytheregionshighlysensitivetoextremehightemperatureevents.In contrast, extremeprecipitation events show large spatial heterogeneity over China. The largestincrease in extreme precipitation events occurs over theMiddle-Lower Yangtze plain under bothwarmingscenarios.Atthesametime,thedifferenceinextremeprecipitationeventsbetween1.5℃and2℃ isalsothe largest for this region. It suggests theMiddle-LowerYangtzeplaincouldbetheregionshighlysensitivetoextremeprecipitationeventsinChina.

Keywords: 1.5℃ and 2℃ warming, CESM, Temperature extremes, Precipitation extremes, Precipitation extremes; Regional sensitivity



D3-P-02

ContributionsofsolarradiationmanagementtoCaribbeanclimate

LeonardoClarke,UniversityoftheWestIndies,Jamaica

LeonardoClarke,MichaelTaylor,JayakaCampbell,TanneciaStephenson,UniversityoftheWestIndies,Jamaica;

AbelCentella,InstitutodeMeteorologia,Cuba

Small Island Developing States (SIDS), such as those in the Caribbean, have had some success inadvocatingthatthecontinuedriseinglobalmeansurfacetemperature(GMST)beheldtoamaximumof1.5°Cabovepreindustrial levels.Tothiseffectthe1.5°Ctargetwas includedintheParisClimateAgreementof2015.Thereishowevermuchpessimismastowhetherthe1.5°Coreventheupper2.0°Clongtermtargetgoal(LTTG)setundertheagreementaretrulyattainable.RecentstudiesindicatethatbasedonthecurrenttrendsinCO2emissions,thelikelyincreaseinGMSTwouldbebetween2.0˚Cto4.9˚C. Geoengineering is actively being investigated for its worth and likely impact globally andregionallyifitisusedasapossiblemechanismtocontaintheriseinGMST.Thisstudyusesexistingruns fromtheGeoengineeringModel IntercomparisonProject (GeoMIP)to investigatethepossibleeffectsonCaribbeanclimateofsolarradiationmanagement(SRM).ChangesinmeanprecipitationandtemperatureareexaminedforthecasesoftheG3(sulphateaerosolisinjectedintotheatmosphereatalocationontheequatororuniformlygloballytocounteracttemperaturerisethatwouldbecausebyaRCP4.5)andG4(sulphateaerosolisinjectedintothelowerstratosphere(16to25kminaltitude)at a location on the equator at a constant rate of 5Tg of SO2 per day) experiments. Results arepresented.

Keywords: Geoengineering, Solar Radiation Management



D3-P-03

FutureextremetemperaturechangesoverWestAfricalinkedglobalwarmingintensity

VictorDike,Energy,Climate,andEnvironmentScienceGroup,ImoStatePolytechnicUmuagwo,Ohaji,Nigeria

VictorDike,ColmanIbe,Energy,Climate,andEnvironmentScienceGroup,ImoStatePolytechnicUmuagwo,Ohaji,Nigeria

BasedonCORDEX-Africahighresolutiondailydataset,weinvestigatefuture(2020-2060)changesintemperature extremes given that the global mean temperature increased persistently under twogreenhouse gas concentration scenarios. Results indicate that during 2020-2060, temperatureextreme increased significantly over West Africa as compared with the conditions during thepreindustrialera.Warmextremesseemstobemorepersistent,thisisanindicationthatheatwaveswillbemorefrequentintheregion.MoreintensewarmingisobservedoverthedrierWestAfricanSahel,andthewetterGuineaCoastregions.Additionally,warmtemperatureextremesscaleslinearlywith changes in the 1.5oC and 2.0oC global warming magnitude. This further demonstrates thatchangesintemperatureextremesarerelatedtoglobalmeantemperaturechanges.Inabroadersocialcontext,thisregionishometoover200millionpeopleandthusprotectivemeasuresarerequiredtolessentheeffectoftheprojectedwarmtemperatureextremesonthepopulates.

Keywords: Extreme temperature, Future changes, West Africa



D3-P-04

Assessmentofthermalstressadaptabilityincommerciallayerproductioninhotandhumidclimate

OlubunmiDuduyemi,DepartmentofAnimalSciences,ObafemiAwolowoUniversity,Nigeria

Ahotandhumidclimateisoneoftheimportantstressorsaffectingcommercialpoultryproductionintropicalandsub-tropicalregions.Thus,theeffectofhighambienttemperatureandresultantthermalstress on the performance of commercial egg-laying stocks, need to be assessed. This study wasdesigned toevaluate theeffectof thermal stresson theproductionperformanceof twostrainsofcommerciallayerchickens(IsaBrownandBovanNera)inahumidtropicalenvironment.

Dataontwostrainsoflayerchickens(IsaBrownandBovanNera)wereobtainedfromfarmrecordsofFuntunaFarms,Ogere-Remo,inSouthwest,Nigeria.Thedataincludedegg-layingperformancetraitsandclimaticvariables.Performancetraitsincludeageatpointoflay,mortalitypatternandegg-layingperformance.Climaticvariablesincludetemperatureandrelativehumidityfromwhichtemperature-humidityindex(THI)wasderived.TheTHIwasgroupedinto3classes:<26,26-29,and>29toshowthedegreeofthermalstressvariationinthechickenhousesthebirdswereexposedto.Effectofthresholdof thermal stress levels and the associated rate of decline in egg production and mortality wereestimated.Egg-layingrecordsof4,000pulletsoneachstrainwereanalyzedtoquantifytheeffectofthermalstressfunctioninafixedeffectmodelonperformance.Effectofthermalstress,genotype,andageoflayersonproductionefficiency,werestudied.Thedatawasanalyzedusingdescriptivestatistics,linearregressionmodelingofproductionfunction,analysisofvarianceandthegenerallinearmodelofSAS®.

Resultsrevealedthateggproductionwassignificantlyaffectedbygenotype(P<0.05),THIandageofbirds (P < 0.001). Hen-housed egg production for Isa Brown and BovanNerawere 4.98±0.21 and5.20±0.21perhenperweekrespectively.Therewashowever,significanteffect(P<0.001)ofTHIonproduction.ThethermalstressfunctiondevelopedshowedathresholdatTHI=27.5andtheassociatedrateofdeclinewere0.35eggsperunitincreaseinTHI(EggProduction=-0.35THI+6.3).BovanNerarecordedlowerrate(0.32eggs/THI)asagainstIsaBrown(0.37eggs/THI).Onseasonaleffects,theearlyrain(ER)wasbest(13.23±1.75)followedbylaterain(18.04±1.76),earlydry(19.19±1.75)andlatedry(20.85±1.79). Further, a highly significant effect (P < 0.001) of thermal stress was recorded onmortality. Isa Brown recorded higher mortality (24.19±1.25) per month of lay than Bovan Nera(14.46±1.25)duringthestudyperiod.

Inconclusion,theproductionperformanceofthetwostrains(IBandBN)wasinfluencedbythermalstress,genotypeandageofbird.BovanNerawassuperiortoIsaBrownasitshowedhardinessandbetter production adaptability, which are desirable characteristics in commercial poultry industry.Thereexistsvariabilityinheattoleranceamongthestrainsandtemperature-humidityindex(THI)canbeusedtoaccountfortheeffectsofthermalstressonproductionperformanceofcommerciallayersinhotandhumidclimate

Keywords: thermal stress, adaptability, commercial layer, hot climate, production



D3-P-05

Potentialimpactof1.5°C,2°Cand3°CglobalwarmingonplantingseasonandcropsuitabilityoverWestAfrica

TemitopeSamuelEgbebiyi,UniversityofCapeTown,SouthAfrica,SouthAfrica

TemitopeSamuelEgbebiyi,UniversityofCapeTown,SouthAfrica,SouthAfrica;OlivierCrespo,UniversityofCapeTown,SouthAfrica,SouthAfrica;ChrisLennard,UniversityofCapeTown,South

Africa,SouthAfrica

West African rainfed agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. This studyexaminesthepotentialimpactof1.5,2and3oCglobalwarming(GWL15,GWL20andGWL30)oncropgrowth suitability and planting/growing season in West Africa under RCP8.5 scenarios. Climatevariablesfrom10CMIP5GCMsthatparticipatedintheCoordinatedRegionalDownscalingexperiment(CORDEX)weredownscaledbyregionalclimatemodel,RCA4.Thesevariableswerethenusedindrivingcropsuitabilitymodel,EcoCropforsixcropspearlmilletmaize(cereals);groundnut,cowpea(legumes)andcassavaandplantain(rootandtuber).TherobustnessofGWLsimpactswereassessedusingtwoconditions;firstifatleast80%ofthesimulationsagreeonthesignofchangeandsecondlythatsignsof change are statistically significant at 99% confidence interval level, using t-testwith respect toclimatevariabilityofthehistoricalperiod.Theresultshowedaspatialdistributionsofdecreasingcropsuitability from south to north across the three agroecological zones (AEZs) inWest Africa in thehistoricalclimatewithmarginalcroppingsuitabilityareobservedaroundlat.14oNforallcropsexceptforplantainwhichisapproximatelyat12oN.HighersuitabilityisobservedtothesouthofthemarginalforallthecropsacrossshowingtheguineazoneismostsuitableacrossallcropsandtheSaheltobeunsuitable. The simulations project a robust increase in crop suitability and planting period withincreasingGWLsforthesixcrops.CropsuitabilityisprojectedtoincreasefrommarginalsuitabilitytobeingssuitableinthecentralSahelforcerealsandlegumesandoverthesavannaforrootandtuber,plantainwhileadecrease in suitability isprojected for cassavaacross theAEZsand forplantain inguineazonewithincreasingGWLs.CassavaisthemostimpactedcropwithincreasingGWLsduetocontractionofthesuitableareathecropcanbegrown.OurfindingshaveapplicationinreducingtheimpactsofglobalwarmingonfoodsecurityoverWestAfrica.

Keywords: Crop suitability, Planting season, Global warming levels, Ecocrop, West Africa



D3-P-06

Ensembleprojectionoftemperatureandprecipitationunderthe1.5°CwarminginEastAsiausingregionalclimatemodels

ZhenyuHan,NationalClimateCenter,CMA,China

Twenty-eightregionalclimatemodel(RCMs)projectionsataresolutionof~50kmareemployedtoinvestigate the future climate change over East Asia under the 1.5°C global warming. EmissionscenariosincludeSRESA1B,RCP4.5,andRCP8.5,withtherespectivetimeperiodscorrespondingto1.5°Cglobalwarmingareidentifiedfromthedrivingglobalclimatemodel(GCMs)simulations.Rangeoftheprojectedchangesandtheuncertaintyacrossthismulti-modelensembleforthislevelofglobalwarming are investigated. The results indicate that the EastAsian landwill experience robust andsignificantwarming(1.3°Conaveragerelativeto1986-2005)whichisgreaterthantheglobalaverage(0.9°Crelativeto1986-2005).TheannualmeanwarmingismorepronouncedoverNorthwestChina,Tibetan Plateau, and Mongolia, and to a less extend over Southeast China. The annual meanprecipitationwillalso increaseovermostregions(2.3%onaveragerelativeto1986-2005)butwithlargeuncertainties.HighestandstatisticalsignificantincreaseslocateatNorthwestChinaandNorthChina,whilelowestandstatisticalinsignificantoneslocateatTibetanPlateauandJapan.Ifthetargetchanges from 1.5°C to 2°C , the warming and precipitation increasing will continue. ComparisonsbetweentheRCMsanddrivingGCMsarealsoprovided.

Keywords: 1.5°C warming, East Asia, regional climate model





D3-P-07

EvaluationofCMIP5wind-vectorfieldsanditsrelationshipwithprecipitationintheAsian-Australianmonsoonregion

FangHuang,SchoolofAtmosphericSciences,NanjingUniversity,China

FangHuang,SchoolofAtmosphericSciences,NanjingUniversity,China;ZhongfengXU,RCE-TEA,InstituteofAtmosphericPhysics,ChineseAcademyofSciences,China;WeidongGUO,Schoolof

AtmosphericSciences,NanjingUniversity,China

Vectorwinds play a crucial role in shaping regional climate and the lateral atmospheric boundaryconditions (LBC) of regionalmodels.Model simulated precipitationmay largely be determined bysimulatedvectorwinds.Nudgingthewindfield intheprocessofmodel integrationmayeffectivelyimprovethemodelcapabilitytosimulateprecipitation.Inthisstudy,weevaluate37CMIP5modelsand their multi-model ensemble (MME) in terms of vector winds and their relationship withprecipitation in the Asian-Australian monsoon region. Unlike previous model assessments thosemostlyassessedmeridionalandzonalwindseparately,wetreatvectorwindasawholebyemployingarecentlydevelopedvectorfieldevaluation(VFE)method.Theresultsaresummarizedasfollows:1)in terms of climatological means of wind-vector field, the MME exhibits the best performance,followedbyCESM1-CAM5modelandthreeMPI-ESMmodels.Insummerandautumn,precipitationisgenerallybettersimulatedinthemodelsthosecanwellreproducevectorwindfields,whichindicatesthatmodel simulated vectorwind fieldmay strongly affect the simulation of precipitation. 2) TheMME,CESM1-CAM5andthreeMPImodelsarestilltheleadingmodelsinreproducingtheannualcycleofvectorwinds.Correlationanalysissuggeststhattheannualcycleofprecipitationislikelyaffectedbythe vectorwind field in the northwest Pacific and the southern Arabian region. 3) CMIP5Modelsgenerallyoverestimate the interannual variationof the850-hPavectorwind field. The interannualvariationofvectorwindfieldscanalsomodulatetheinterannualvariationofprecipitationinSouthAsianmonsoonregioninspring.

Keywords: Asian monsoon circulation, Vector Field Evaluation, vector wind, precipitation, model performance



D3-P-08

ContributionAssessmentofMultipleBiasCorrectionforSummerExtremePrecipitationinBCC-CSM1.1-moverYangtze-HuaiheRiverBasininChina

LianhuaZhu,NanjingUniversityofInformationScience&Technology,China

FortheBCC-CSM1.1-m,fourstatisticalbiascorrectionmethods,whichincludingtheLinearscaling(LS),Quantilemapping(QM),Distributionmapping(DM)andCumulativedistributionfunctiontransform(CDFT), are introduced to evaluate their performance in correcting summer daily precipitation,especiallyextremerainfalloverYangtze-HuaiheRiverBasin(YRB)inChina.BCC-CSM1.1-mhasmuchbetterperformanceinclimatesimulationoverChina,butstillhasevidentdeviationinthedailyrainfallespeciallyextremeprecipitationinYRB.Afterthemultiplebiascorrecting,thesimulatingabilitycanbesignificantly improved,butwithdifferentperformanceindifferentsides.Ofwhich,theQMhasthemost significant improvement in the probability distributions of daily precipitation and areameanrainfall,andCDFTcomessecond.Forthespatialconsistencyofsixextremeprecipitationindices,LS,QMandCDFThavebettersimulationcapabilitiesinthetotalprecipitationandmoderaterainydays.Meanwhile, only QM can well correct the rainfall days, precipitation intensity and 95% quantileprecipitation.Forexample, theaveraged relativeerrors for95%quantileprecipitationare reducedfrom-57.8to-2.8%,andthespatialcorrelationcoefficientsareincreasedfrom-0.12to0.64.Itisnotedthatthecontinuousdrydays,overall,arefailedtobewellcorrected.

Keywords: Bias Correction, Statistical Downscaling, Extreme Precipitation



D3-P-09

ThesouthernAfricanclimateunder1.5 °Cand2 °CofglobalwarmingassimulatedbyCORDEXregionalclimatemodels

GenitoMaure,EduardoMondlaneUniversity,Mozambique

Results fromanensembleof25regionalclimatemodelsimulationsfromtheCoordinatedRegionalDownscalingExperimentAfricainitiativeareusedtoassesstheprojectedchangesintemperatureandprecipitationover southernAfrica at twoglobalwarming levels (GWLs), namely1.5 °C and2.0 °C ,relative to pre-industrial values, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. The resultsshowa robust increase in temperature compared to the control period (1971–2000) ranging from0.5 °C –1.5 °C for the1.5 °CGWLand from1.5 °C –2.5 °C , for the2.0 °CGWL.Areas in the south-western regionof thesubcontinent, coveringSouthAfricaandpartsofNamibiaandBotswanaareprojectedtoexperiencethelargestincreaseintemperature,whicharegreaterthantheglobalmeanwarming,particularlyduringtheSeptember–October–Novemberseason.Ontheotherhand,under1.5 °CGWL,modelsexhibitarobustreductioninprecipitationofupto0.4 mm day−1(roughly20%oftheclimatologicalvalues)overtheLimpopoBasinandsmallerareasoftheZambeziBasininZambia,and also parts of Western Cape, South Africa. Models project precipitation increase of up to0.1 mm day−1overcentralandwesternSouthAfricaandinsouthernNamibia.Under2.0 °CGWL,alargerfractionoflandisprojectedtofacerobustdecreasesbetween0.2and0.4 mm day−1(around10%–20%of theclimatologicalvalues)overmostof thecentral subcontinentandpartsofwesternSouthAfricaandnorthernMozambique.Decreasesinprecipitationareaccompaniedbyincreasesinthe number of consecutive dry days and decreases in consecutive wet days over the region. Theimportance of achieving the Paris Agreement is imperative for southern Africa as the projectedchangesunderboththe1.5 °C,andmoreso,2.0 °CGWLimplysignificantpotentialriskstoagriculturalandeconomicproductivity,humanandecologicalsystemshealthandwaterresourceswithimpliedincreaseinregionalwaterstresses.

Keywords: 1.5 degree, CORDEX, Southern Africa, Global warming



D3-P-10

onsetvariationunder1.5and2.0degree

OusmaneNdiaye,NationalWeatherService(ANACIM),Senegal

Inthisworkwearelookingthevariationoftheonsetdateonasinglepickrainyseasonunder1.5and2degreesC.WeusedthedonwscaledCORDEXdatasimulatedbymultimodelensemblesoverSenegal.Results show a shift of the onset dates and the frequency of dry spells after the onset dates.Thishasimplicationonagriculturalactivitiesoverwestafricawhichdependsmostofthepopulationandthusanimpactontheeconomywhichreliesmostlyonrainfedagriculture.

Keywords: onset, agriculture



D3-P-11

EnhanceddrynessanddroughtoverIndonesianregionunderglobalwarmingof2°Cand4°CandpossiblecombinedeffectsofclimatechangeandElNiño

FredolinTangang,TheNationalUniversityofMalaysia,Malaysia

FredolinTangang,TheNationalUniversityofMalaysia,Malaysia;SupariSupari,IndonesianAgencyforMeteorology,ClimatologyandGeophysics(BMKG),Indonesia;JingXiangChung,TheNationalUniversityofMalaysia,Malaysia;EsterSalimun,TheNationalUniversityofMalaysia,Malaysia;SheauTiehNgai,TheNationalUniversityofMalaysia,Malaysia;LiewJuneng,TheNational

UniversityofMalaysia,Malaysia

Indonesianregion,especiallySumateraandKalimantan,isknowntoexperiencedroughtinmonthsofJunetoOctoberduringElNiño.DuringstrongElNiño,theanomalousConsecutiveDryDays(CDD)canbemorethan50%comparedtonormalyears.Whileweexperiencesuchdryconditioninter-annuallyin thecurrentclimatebecauseofElNiño-inducedcondition, in future suchdryness isprojected tooccurannuallyinmonthsofJunethroughOctoberifclimatechangeisnotfullymitigated.UnderRCP4.5and8.5,CDDofmulti-modelsimulationsofCORDEXSoutheastAsiashowedIndonesianregionisprojected to experience robust and significant increase indrynesswhenglobalmean temperaturereaches2oCabovepre-industriallevel.Thelevelofdrynessisprojectedtofurtherincreasewhenglobalmean temperature increase reaches 4oC.While the inter-annually occurring dryness and droughtexperienced during El Niño in the current climate exerted tremendous environmental and socio-economicimplications,theannuallyoccurringdrynessanddroughtbecauseofclimatechangewouldcausemuchgreaterimpacts.However,infutureyearswhenElNiñoisalsooccurring,thecombinedeffects of unmitigated climate change and El Niño could enhance the dryness and drought overIndonesiatounprecedentedlevel.

Keywords: CORDEX Southeast Asia, dryness and drought, Consecutive Dry Days, El Nino, Indonesia



D3-P-12

ClimateChangeprojectionfortheUttarakhand,IndiausingCORDEXSouthAsiamodel

NeetuTyagi,StateClimateChangeCentre,ForestDepartment,Dehradun,Uttarakhand,India,India

NeetuTyagi,TriptiJayal,MukeshSingh,StateClimateChangeCentre,ForestDepartment,Dehradun,Uttarakhand,India

The possible consequences of climate change are yet to be understood as it’s a major globalenvironmentalanddevelopmentalproblem.ItisnowestablishedthatadverseimpactsarelikelyfromanincreasedfrequencyofextremeweatherandextremeclimatevariabilitywherenaturalcalamitiessuchasLandslide,Flood,CloudBurst,Flashflood,Droughtetc.

Inthisstudy,climatechangeprojectionsfortheUttarakhandStateiscarriedoutusingoutputsofhighresolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Climate DownscalingExperimentprogram(CORDEX). It representsthetrendoftemperatureandprecipitationwiththeircomparison.Theresolutionofbothgriddeddatais0.25x0.25atgloballevelwheretheCORDEXSouth-East Asia modelled climate data includes 12 models. The study is based on selected parametersPrecipitation,Maximum Temperature,Minimum Temperature &Mean Temperature. The RCP 4.5(moderateemission)andRCP8.5(highemission)scenariosistobeusedinthisstudy.TheprocessedclimaticdatarepresentsMid-Century(2021-2050)andEnd-Century(2070-2099)withrespecttotheBase-Line (1976-2005). For both emission scenarios, increase in annual and seasonal minimumtemperature is projected forUttarakhand and its district towardsMC and EC.Heavy and extremeprecipitationisprojectedtoincreaseformajorityofdistrictstowardsMCandECascomparedtoBL.

Thesocio-economicdevelopment indevelopingcountry like India ispartiallyeffectedby impactofClimateChange.Localadaptation is theonlypossibility for reducing those impacts.Scientific studyhelps in formulationofeffectiveadaptation strategies. This studywill beuse inpolicymakingandadaptation&mitigationstrategiesforthestateofUttarakhand.

Keywords: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP’s), Temperature, Precipitation, Adaptation, Mitigation



D3-P-13

Changesintheland-atmosphereinteractionintheCongoBasin:processesdrivingthedeclineofprecipitationrecyclingratiounder1.5°Cand2°CglobalwarminglevelsinCORDEXModel

AppolinaireVondouDerbetini,UniversityofYaounde1,DepartmentofPhysics,Cameroon

VondouDerbetiniAppolinaire,TamoffoTchioAlain,UniversityofYaounde1,DepartmentofPhysics,Cameroon

ThisstudyinvestigatesprecipitationrecyclingintheCongoBasin(CB)usingSwedishRegionalClimateModelRCA4.ThemodelwasdrivenbyeightGeneralCirculationModels (GCMs) fromtheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProjectPhase5(CMIP5).Responsestotheglobalwarmingof1.5°Cand2°Clevelsunder the representative concentrationpathways (RCPs) 4.5 and8.5wereanalysed.Resultsindicate that RCA4 captures reasonably well patterns and modes of variability of CB recycledprecipitation although some uncertainties exist between observed and simulated fields. ExistingseasonalbiasesthoughttobeduetocombinedeffectsofboundaryconditionsandtheRCMinherenterrors.EmpiricalOrthogonalFunctionsshowthatthespatialpatternoftherecyclingrate(RR)displaysadipole intheCB,explainingtwodistinctmechanismsthatcontrol therecyclingprocess.Overthenorthernsector(2°S-5°N;12-30°E),thesoilmoistureseemstocontroltheRRwhereasonthesouthernpart(2-10°S;12-30°E),thesolarradiationisfoundtobethemaindriveroftheprecipitationrecycling.TheCBwillexperienceageneraldeclineoftheRR,morerobustunderRCP8.5andlargeramplifiedat2.0°Cofglobalwarming.

Keywords: precipitation recycling, Congo basin, global warming levels, Regional Climate Model RCA4



D3-P-1’

DetectingregionshighlysensitivetodroughteventsinChinabasedonmultiplesoilmoisturedata

YixinWang,SchoolofAtposphericSciences,NanjingUniversity,China

YixinWang,WeidongGuo,SchoolofAtposphericSciences,NanjingUniversity,China

Droughteventshavegreat impactsonagriculturalproduction,socialeconomyandhumanlife.Thefrequencyandintensityofdroughteventsshowslargespatialheterogeneity,thustheregionswhicharehighly sensitive todroughteventsneeds tobe identified. In thispaper,multiple long-termsoilmoistureproductsareevaluatedincomparisontoin-situmeasurementsinChina,thentheproductwithhighestqualityisselectedtoexplorethelocationandevolutionoftheregionshighlysensitivetodroughteventsinChina.Theevaluationofthesoilmoistureproductsisconductedatbothlocalandregionalscale from1992to2013.AccordingtotheBrunkerankingmethod,ESACCIperformsbestamong the evaluated soil moisture products, followed by ERA-Interim, NCEP/DOE-R2 andNOAA/CIRES-20CR.Soilmoisturedrought(SD)eventswerethendefinedusingESACCIsoilmoisturedata.ResultsshowthatSDeventsoccurmorefrequentlyinthesemi-aridandsomepartsofaridareaof China, andhave increased significantly since 1987. Flashdrought (FD) is an extremeevent thatcomprehensivelyreflectsthecharacteristicsofdroughtandheatwave.From1979to2014,FDeventsincreasedbymorethan115%inChina.ThehightemperaturedrivenFDismorelikelytooccurinwetandsemi-humidareas,whilethelowsoilmoisturedrivenFDaremorefrequentinaridandsemi-aridareas.

Keywords: climate change, soil moisture, soil moisture drought, flash drought, China



D3-P-15

ImpactofglobalwarminglevelsonphotovoltaicpowergenerationoverWestAfrica

SawadogoWindmanagda,WASCAL,BurkinaFaso

SawadogoWindmanagda,WASCAL,BurkinaFaso;BabatundeAbiodun,UniversityofCapeTown,SouthAfrica;EmmanuelOkogbue,FederalUniversotyofTechnology,Akure,Nigeria

ManyWestAfricancountriesareplaguedwithpoorelectricity.Anabundanceofsolarirradianceoverthe region makes solar energy an attractive solution to the problem, but there is a dearth ofinformationonhowtheongoingglobalwarmingandsolardimmingataspecificlevelmayalterthesolarenergyover theregion in the future.Thisstudy investigates the impactofclimatechangeonphotovoltaicpowergenerationpotential(PVP)overWestAfricaundervariousglobalwarminglevels.Fourteen regional climatemodel simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate DownscalingExperiment (CORDEX)were analysed for the study. The capability of the simulations to reproduceclimatevariables(surface-downwellingshortwaveradiation,Rs;airtemperature,Ts;windspeed,Ws;andrelativehumidity,Rh)overWestAfricawasquantified.ThesimulatedPVPwerealsocomparedwiththeobserved.TheimpactofclimatechangeonsimulatedPVPoverWestAfricawasexaminedatfourglobalwarminglevels(1.5°C;2.0°C;2.5°Cand3.0°C)undertheRepresentativeConcentrationPathways8.5(RCP8.5)climatechangescenario.

TheresultsshowthattheCORDEXsimulationensemblecapturesthespatialdistributionofclimatevariables(Rs,Ts,WsandRh)andPVPoverWestAfrica,thoughwithfewbiases.Italsoreproducestheannualcycleofthesevariablesoverthedifferentclimaticzones.ThesimulationandobservationagreethatPVPoverWestAfricarangesfrom8%alongtheGuineazoneto25%overtheSahelzone,andthattheannualcycleofPVPisinfluencedbytheseasonalvariationofthemonsoonsystem.ThesimulationensembleprojectsadecreaseofPVPoverWestAfricainthefutureandindicatesthatthemagnitudeofthedecreasegrowswithwarminglevels.ThedecreaseinPVPisattributedtoadecreaseinRs(solardimming) and an increase in ambient temperature induced by global warming. Nevertheless, thespatialandtemporaldistributionofthePVPchangesaremoreinfluencedbyRschangesthanbyTschanges,suchasatGWL1.5,an increase inPVP isprojectedoverall zonesduringtherainyseasonwhenanincreaseinRsisprojected.AdecreaseinprojectedPVPisalsoprojectedoverallthecountries.Nevertheless,themaximumdecreaseinPVPprojectedoveranycountryorzoneintheregionislessthan 3.8% even at GWL3.0. Hence, the study suggests that ongoing global warmingmay have aninfluenceonPVPoverWestAfrica.

Keywords: Solar Energy, Global warming



D3-P-16

FinestructureandsensitiveareasinChinaunder1.5/2.0°Cwarmingasindicatedbyextremeclimateevents

RunqiWu,NanjingUniversity,China

RunqiWu,JianpingTan,WeidanZhou,WeidongGuo,JunGeNanjingUniversity,China

TheParisAgreementaimstokeepglobalaveragetemperaturerisewellbelow2.0°Candbettertolimitthetemperatureincreasenomorethan1.5°Cabovepre-industriallevelsbytheendofthiscentury.Todetecttheregionshighlysensitivetoextremeeventsunder1.5/2.0°Cwarmingscenarios,weperformdynamicdownscalingusingoutputdatafromCESMlow-warmingexperimentandWeatherResearchandFeastingmodel(WRF).Ourresultsshowthataridandsemi-aridregionssuchasNorth,NorthwestandNortheastChinaaremoresensitivetoextremetemperatureeventsunder1.5/2.0°Cscenarios.Extra0.5°Cwarmingrestrictioncansignificantlyreducetheriskofextremetemperatureevents.WRFsimulatedfrequencyandintensityofextremetemperatureeventsinChinaunder1.5/2.0°Cwarmingscenarios is larger than that simulatedbyCESM.At thesame time,WRFshows that larger risksofextremetemperatureeventscanbeavoidedfromcontrollingextra0.5°Cwarming,suggestingthatthebenefitofextrawarmingcontroltendstobeestimatedbyCESM.WRFresultsshowthatmorefrequentand intense extreme precipitation events occurs over the Tibetan Plateau, Southwest China andNortheast China under 1.5/2.0°C warming scenarios. While the bias in the extreme precipitationeventsbetweenWRFandCESMaswellasbetween1.5°Cand2.0°Cscenariosshowa largespatialheterogeneity among all analyzed indices, indicating a large uncertainty remains in the extremeprecipitationevents.

Keywords: 1.5/2.0°C warming, Sensitive Areas, downscaling,WRF



D3-P-17

Peakforecastofcarbonemissionsunderclimatechangebackground:Acasestudy

XiutingPiao,BeijingNormalUniversity,China

TheParisAgreement sets the targetof controlling the increaseof theglobal average temperaturewithin2degreeby2050comparingtopre-industriallevel,whichwillpushthecarbondischargespeakcomingasearlyaspossibleatglobalandregionallevel.IPCChassetthenewSharedSocio-economicPathways (SSPs) to realize the climate targets by different combination of climate adaptation andmitigationoptionsinsocialandeconomicdevelopments.AnhuiProvinceischosenasaregionalcasestudytodiscusshowregionalcarbonemissionpeaksunderdifferentSSPsframework,asitisamajorenergy production and consumption province in China. This paper uses ridge regression to fit theexpandedSTIRPATcarbonemissionmodelinAnhuiProvince,andselectsfiveindicators:populationsize,percapitaGDP,energyintensity,urbanizationrateandsecondaryindustryratio.Underthefivescenarios of sustainable path (SSP1), intermediate path (SSP2), regional competition path (SSP3),unbalancedpath(SSP4)andfossilfuel-baseddevelopmentpath(SSP5),thefutureCarbondischargespeakvalueandtimeofAnhuiProvincefrom2016to2030arepredictedandanalyzedrespectively.RelevantpolicysuggestionsareputforwardtoensurethesmoothimplementationofAnhuiProvince'slow-carbondevelopmentplanandsustainabledevelopment.

Keywords: Carbon emissions, Peak prediction, STIRPAT model, SSPs



D3-P-18

ProjectedchangeofprecipitationoverChinaunder1.5°Cand2°Cbasedonmodelperformanceandindependence

LilongZhao,Nanjinguniversityofinformationscience&technology,China

Lilongzhao,ZhihongJiang,TongLiNanjinguniversityofinformationscience&technology,China

A weighting scheme which considering both model performance and independence (PI-basedweightingscheme)wasappliedtoinvestigatethechangeofaverageandextremeprecipitationoverChinaunderthe1.5°Cand2°Cwarmingabovepreindustrial.ComparedtotheRank-basedensemblesandthesimplearithmeticmeanensemble,thePI-basedensemblesachievedsignificantimprovementsto simulate temporal and spatial patterns in precipitation simulation, especially inwestern China.Averaged bias over chinawas decreased in all climate index (PRCTOT:9%, RX1day:5%, RX5day:5%R95p:11%).

ThemodelprojectedtendenciesofPRCTOT,RX1DAY,RX5DAYandR95Pvaluesincreaseforboththe1.5°Cand2°C warminglevelsunderRCP4.5and8.5scenariosbythreedifferentschemesacrossthewholeChina.ThespatialdistributionofPRCTOTforthethreeschemesfollowasimilarpattern,butPI-basedschemeshowslargepercentageincreasesattheSouthwestforboth1.5°Cand2°C warminglevelsundertwoscenarios.ThePI-basedschemeshowsanaverage4percentincreaseinPRCTOTforthewhole China. Northwest andmiddle part of the study region in both scenarios show a biggerdecline inprecipitationthanRank-basedandMMEresults.Similarresultscanbefound inRX1DAY,RX5DAYandR95P.Comparingto1.5°C,PRCTOT\RX1DAY\RX5DAY\R95Pincreasemoreobviouslyat2°Cwarminglevels,especiallyonwestandnorthwest.Allindicesdecreaseinmiddleregionandwestmarginal region. There is a bigger increase in R95P under 0.5 differencewith themaximum valueexceeding20%.

Keywords: 1.5 /2.0°C global warming, precipitation projection, CMIP5 model


D4: Urban environment and regional climate

ORAL PRESENTATIONS



UrbanizationinhighresolutionRCM–doweneedit?

TomasHalenka,CharlesUniversity,CzechRepublic

TomasHalenka,MichalBelda,PeterHuszar,JanKarlicky,TerezaNovakova,CharlesUniversity,CzechRepublic;

To assess the impact of cities andurban structures onweather, climate and air-quality,modellingapproachiscommonlyusedandtheinclusionofurbanparameterizationinland-surfaceinteractionsisofprimaryimportancetocapturetheurbaneffectsproperly.Thisisespeciallyimportantwhengoingtohigherresolution,whichiscommontrendinoperationalweatherforecast,air-qualitypredictionaswell as regional climatemodeling.As themost of population is living in the cities and the ratio isincreasing,weneedproperdescriptionofurbanprocessesforproperassessmentofimpactswithinthecitiesandoftheeffectivenessofadaptationandmitigationoptionsappliedincitiesinconnectionwithclimatechangeaswellastheurbanheatislanditself.Thus,itisvalidnotonlyforextremeheatwaves impact prediction, but as well in air-quality prediction and in long term perspective inconnectiontoclimatechangeimpacts.ThisprovidesthebackgroundfortheprojectwithinOperationalProgram Prague - The Pole of Growth “Urbanization of weather forecast, air-quality and climatescenariosforPrague”,shortlyURBIPRAGENSI.

We demonstrate the importance of urban parameterization in the high resolution simulationscomparingWRFandRegCMwithdifferenturbanparameterizationoptionsin10kmresolution.Therearedifferencesintheimpacts,butbasicallyallareabletocapturetheeffectsofurbanheatislandinthesesimulations,whichcanbequitesignificantespeciallyunderheatwavesandachieveuptoabout8-10°Cdifferencebetweenthecityanditsvicinityfor largecitiesduringnighttime.Moredetailedanalysis of the effects in terms of energy balance in the city and remote areas in high resolutionsimulations will be presented. Experiments in convection permitting resolution of 3 km will becomparedinweatherlikemode.

Keywords: urban heat island, urban parameterization, regional climate modelling, convection permitting modelling, energy balance



High-resolutionregionalclimatemodellingwithCNRM-AROMEtostudytheurbanclimateofParis(France)areaanditsevolutionwithclimatechange

AudeLemonsu,CNRM,CNRS/Meteo-France,France

AudeLemonsu,CNRM,CNRS/Meteo-France;BenjaminLEROY,CécileCAILLAUD,CNRM,CNRS/Meteo-France

Regionalclimatemodels,thataredrivenbygeneralcirculationmodelstosimulatemoreaccuratelyregional-scaleclimateevolution,aswellasenvironmentalimpacts,donotincludeexplicitmodellingofurbanareas.Nonetheless,theveryhighspatialresolutionstheyareabletoreachenhancetheneedandrelevancetotakeintoaccountaspecificrepresentationofthecities.

TheurbancanopymodelTEB isnowrunning inlinewith theFrenchconvection-permittingregionalclimatemodel CNRM-AROME. This configurationmakes it possible to realistically represent urbanprocessesatthesurface/atmosphereinterfaceandphenomenonssuchasurbanheatislands,butalsoto simulate the potential feedback of local urban effects on regional-scale climate. DifferentrefinementlevelscanbeactivatedinTEBtostudytheurbanissuesofheatstressconditions,energydemandforheatingandcooling,orurbanvegetationmanagement.

ThisnewconfigurationishereappliedovertheParisregionandevaluatedoverthepastperiod2000-2008.CNRM-AROMEisrunningat2.5kmresolution,drivenbythe12-kmresolutionALADINmodel,andbyusingERA-interimreanalysesasboundaryconditions.Theevaluationisbasedonspatializedobserveddataofairtemperatures,surfacetemperatures,andrainfallwiththeaimofinvestigatingthemodel'sabilitytoreproduceParis'urbanclimatologythroughspatio-temporal indicators(especiallyfor intensity and spatial extensionof theurbanheat island). Theevolutionof theseurban climateindicatorswithclimatechangewillthenbestudied.Forthis,CNRM-AROMEisdrivenbyALADINthatis itselfdrivenby theARPEGEglobalcirculationmodel.Thehistoricalperiod1995-2005and futureperiod2040-2050willbecomparedaccordingtotheemissionscenarioRCP8.5.

Keywords: Urban environment, High-resolution regional climate model



Fromregionalscaletocityscalebycorrectionofdynamicaldownscalingsimulations


FrançoisDuchêne,RoyalMeteorologicalInstituteofBelgium,Belgium;StevenCaluwaerts,GhentUniversity,DepartmentofPhysicsandAstronomy,Ghent,Belgium,Belgium;RozemienDeTroch,RafiqHamdi,PietTermonia,BertVanSchaeybroeck,RoyalMeteorologicalInstituteofBelgium,

Belgium

Within theURCLIMproject, thegoal is todevelopurbanclimate servicesbasedonhigh-resolutionclimatedata.Thereisindeedastrongneedforclimateservicesatthecitylevelrelatedtotheimpactofclimatechangeontheurbanenvironment,requiredforadequateadaptationmeasures.Reliableandhigh-resolutionclimatedata,however,arescarceandatmosphericclimatemodelsaretypicalltatresolutionsof10 to150km.Therefore, supplementary stepsare required to translatedataof lowresolutiontothecity-scaleresolution.

The aimhere is to devise amethodology to produce urban climate time series based on CORDEXdownscalingsimulations.Thesewillbeusedasinputforthelandusemodel(LSM).Assuch,ensemblesincluding differentmodels and scenarioswill allow to sample uncertainty at the city scale. For anadequatetranslationfromtheregionaltothecityscale,asupplemantarydownscalingstepisrequiredusinganRCMcoupledtoaland-surfacemodel(Hamdietal.,2014).However,suchclimate-scalemodelrunsarecomputationallyextremelyexpensiveandthereforeamethodisdesignedtoskipthisstepbasedonalimitedsetofadditionaldownscalingsimulations.TheinnovativestepconsistsofcorrectingtheforcingdataoftheLSM.WepresentavalidationofthemethodologytheBrusselsCapitalRegionsupplementedwith an in-depth study of the initializationmethods.We use ALARO-0 as RCM andSURFEX-TEBasLSM,withboundaryforcingfromreanalysisERA-Interimdata.Wefocusourvalidationontemperature,heat-wavecharacteristics,theurbanheatislandandmultivariateindicesofhumancomfort.OurmethodwillallowtodownscaleclimateurbanscenariosforcedwithalargesetofRCMmodelssuchasfromtheCORDEXproject,tosampletheuncertainty.

Keywords: urban heat island, heat wave, calibration, downscaling



Increasesinanthropogenicheatreleasefromenergyconsumptionleadtomorefrequentextremeheatevents

BinLiu,InstituteofAtmosphericPhysics,China

BinLiu,ZhenghuiXie,PeihuaQin,InstituteofAtmosphericPhysics,China;ShuangLiu,InstituteofMountainHazardsandEnvironment,China;RuichaoLi,LonghuanWang,YanWang,BinghaoJia,Si

Chen,JinboXie,InstituteofAtmosphericPhysics,China;ChunXiangShi,ChinaMeteorologicalAdministration,China

Witheconomicdevelopmentandrapidurbanization,increasesinGDPandpopulationinfast-growingcitiessincetheturnofthe21stCenturyhaveledtoincreasesinenergyconsumption.Anthropogenicheatfluxfromenergyconsumptionreleasedtothenear-surfaceatmospherehasledtochangesintheurban thermal environment and severe extreme temperature events. To investigate the effects ofenergyconsumptiononurbanextremetemperatureevents,includingextremeheatandcoldevents,a dynamic representation scheme of anthropogenic heat release (AHR) was implemented in theWeatherResearchandForecastingmodel (WRF),andanthropogenicheat release (AHR)dataweredevelopedbasedonenergyconsumptionandpopulationdensityinacasestudyofBeijing,China.Twosimulations during 1999–2017 were then conducted using the developed WRF model with 3-kmresolution with and without the AHR scheme. It was shown that the mean climate temperatureincreasedwiththeincreaseofAHR,andmorefrequentextremeheateventswereproduced,withanannual increase of 0.02–0.19 days, as well as less frequent extreme cold events, with an annualdecreaseof0.26–0.56daysbasedonsevenextremetemperatureindices(ETIs)inthecitycenter.AHRincreasedthesensibleheatfluxandledtosurfaceenergybudgetchanges,strengtheningtheboundaryatmospheredynamicprocessesthatreduceAHRheatingefficiencymoreinsummerthaninwinter.Thesimilarsimulationcanbeappliedtoothercitiestogetaglobalresult.Inaddition,itwasconcludedthatsuitableenergymanagementmighthelptomitigatetheimpactofextremetemperatureeventsindifferentseasons.

Keywords: energy consumption, anthropogenic heat release, extreme temperature events, Weather Research and Forecasting model



Diurnaltemperaturerangetrendoverruralandurbanregionsoftheworldanditshumaninducedeffectsonclimate

JayakrishnanPandiyattilillamRajan,BeijingNormalUniversity,China

JayakrishnanPandiyattilillamRajan,CuiXuefeng,BeijingNormalUniversity,China

TheDiurnalTemperatureRange(DTR)isanimportantparameterintermsofassessingthelongtermclimate change of surface temperature. Studies point out that both maximum temperature andminimumtemperatureisbeingincreasedduetoglobalwarmingandthustheDTRisdecreasedasalongtermoverChina.Hereinthisstudy,thelongtermtrend,aswellasinterannualandinterdecadalvariabilityofmaximumtemperature,minimumtemperature,Diurnaltemperaturerange(DTR)etc,isanalysedindetailwithlongtermclimaticdata(1901-2015)ofsurfacetemperatureofdailymaximumandminimumtemperatureusingClimateResearchUnit(CRU)data.DifferenteconomicregionsovertheglobehavebeenclassifiedonthebasisofgriddedGDPPercapitadataduringthelongtermperiod.Theentiregridwasdividedintothreedifferenttypesonthebasisofeconomicperformance.Also,theruralandurbanregionsofthedifferentpartshavebeenidentified.Thisisdonebyutilizingthequartilesobtained fromwhisker andboxplot and thus classifying theglobal grid in termsof rich,poorandtransitionareas.Afterthis,theentiretypegridswereexaminedfortheDTR,maximumtemperatureand minimum temperature trends and analysed the results thoroughly. The effects on minimumtemperaturechangesand its trendsdueto theurbanizationoverdifferentpartsof theglobehavebeenexamined.Itisalsoproposedtoexaminetheeffectsofminimumtemperatureduringthewinterperiodduetothehuman-inducedheatingovercities.

Keywords: DTR,Temperature, rural/urban environment, trend



FutureintegratedclimatetrajectoriesformajorcitiesintheWorldfromtheRegCM4CORDEX-COREprojections

FilippoGiorgi,AbdusSalamICTP,Italy

FilippoGiorgi,AbdusSalamICTP,Italy;CORDEX-CORERegCM4TEAM,AbdusSalamICTP,Italy

DatafromtheRegCM4CORDEX-COREprojections,covering9CORDEXdomains,areusedtoassesshowtheclimateofthemostpopulouscitiesintheWorldwillchangeundertheRCP8.5andRCP2.6scenarios. First, a city climate index is defined based on percentiles of observed mean annualtemperatureandprecipitation fora regioncoveringall landareasbetween60Sand65N, i.e. theregionencompassingmostlargecitiesintheWorld.ThenaclimatechangeanomalyisaddedbasedontheRegCM4CORDEX-COREprojections, and thenewclimateof cities is calculated in termsof thepresentdaypercentiles.Thisresultsinaneffectivemigrationofcitiesinclimatespace.Thecalculationsarethenrepeatedwiththeinclusionofpresentdayandfuturepopulationscenarios,resultingincitiesmigrationinclimate-populationspace.Itisshownhow,underthehighendRCP8.6scenarioscitieswillpotentiallyundergosubstantialmigrations inclimateandclimate-populationspace,notonlywithinthe same continent, but also todifferent continents, and for some cases, in a climate, or climate-population, space not experienced by any city today. This type of analysis may be useful for thedevelopment of planning and adaptation measures for major cities to cope with possible futureclimates.

Keywords: CORDEX-CORE, Climate and cities


D4: Urban environment and regional

climate



BUSAYO EmmanuelTolulope

Coastalurbanclimatechangeadaptationanddisasterriskreduction:policy,programmeandpracticeforsustainableplanningoutcomes

D4-P-01

CAI Peng Numerical study of the interaction between oasis and urban areas within an arid mountains-desert system in Xinjiang, China using ALARO-SURFEX

D4-P-02

FATHI Najlaa Urbanizationandsurfaceclimatecasestudy:Morocco. D4-P-03

GOZO Emilio ImpactofclimatechangeonextremerainfalleventsoncoastalcitiesinthePhilippines D4-P-04

HAN ZhenyuConvection-permittingsimulationsofurbanheatislandduringahot-weathercaseusing“weather-like”simulationmodeofRegCM4.7/CLM4.5

D4-P-05

LANGENDIJK GabyUrbanareasunderclimatechange:whatdoestheEURO-CORDEXensembletell?-AcasestudyinvestigatingnearsurfacehumidityinBerlin

D4-P-06

MANDAL Shailendra Urbanenvironmentandregionalclimatechange:ACasestudyofIndianmetropolitancity D4-P-07

ZHANG Miao Effectsonlocaltemperatureandenergyofurbanexpansionlocatedinoasisinariddesertarea D4-P-08



D4-P-01

Coastalurbanclimatechangeadaptationanddisasterriskreduction:Policy,programmeandpracticeforsustainableplanningoutcomes

EmmanuelTolulopeBusayo,UniversityofFortHare,SouthAfrica

EmmanuelTolulopeBusayo,AhmedMukalaziKalumba,UniversityofFortHare,SouthAfrica

Coastalurbanareasarecentreofattractiontohumansindevelopingcountriesoftheworldbasedonthevariousopportunitiesthataboundintheseareas,forexampleseatransportation,marinenaturalresources,seafood,placeoftouristanditalsoservesasapointforresortandrelaxation.However,almostaquarteroftheworld’spopulationresideswithinadistanceof100kmfromthecoastandlessthan 100m above sea level thereforemaking coastal settlements growing rapidly over the years.Consequently,theimpactsofclimatechangeoncoastalurbanareasareintensifyingwithsignificanteffectsonpopulaces,environmentandecosystems.ThisstudyfocusedonEastLondon,EasternCape,SouthAfricaasacasestudyusingamixedmethodapproachindatacollection.Publicperspectivesunderthreegroupsofidentifiedenablers;policy;programmeandpracticearediscussed.Basedonthefindings,aframeworkisproposedtoenhanceplanningsystemstomaximisesynergiesbetweenthefields of climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction to minimise the vulnerability ofcommunitiestoextremeweathereventsincoastalurbanisedregions.Additionally,findingsfromthisstudyshowthatthedevelopmentofriskdescriptionsisparamountintheintegrationofCCAandDRRinachievingasustainableurbanplanningdevelopmentandoutcomes.

Keywords: Climate change adaptation, Disaster risk reduction



D4-P-02

Numericalstudyoftheinteractionbetweenoasisandurbanareaswithinanaridmountains-desertsysteminXinjiang,ChinausingALARO-SURFEX

PengCai,StateKeyLaboratoryofDesertandOasisEcology,XinjiangInstituteofEcologyandGeography,ChineseAcademyofSciences,China

PengCai,StateKeyLaboratoryofDesertandOasisEcology,XinjiangInstituteofEcologyandGeography,ChineseAcademyofSciences,China;RafiqHamdi,RoyalMeteorologicalInstitute,

Belgium;HuiliHe,StateKeyLaboratoryofDesertandOasisEcology,XinjiangInstituteofEcologyandGeography,ChineseAcademyofSciences,China;GepingLuo,StateKeyLaboratoryofDesertand

OasisEcology,XinjiangInstituteofEcologyandGeography,ChineseAcademyofSciences,China;JinWang,RemoteSensingCenterofXinjiangMeteorologicalBureau,China;MiaoZhang,StateKeyLaboratoryofDesertandOasisEcology,XinjiangInstituteofEcologyandGeography,Chinese

AcademyofSciences,China;PietTermonia,RoyalMeteorologicalInstitute,Belgium;ChaofanLi,CollaborativeInnovationCenteronForecastandEvaluationofMeteorologicalDisaster,Schoolof

GeographicSciences,NanjingUniversityofInformationScienceandTechnology,China;PhilippeDeMaeyer,GentUniversity,Belgium

The rapid oasis expansion and urbanization that occurred in Xinjiang province (China) in the lastdecadeshavegreatlymodifiedthelandsurfaceenergybalancewhichinfluencesthelocalcirculations,mainlytheoasis-desertandurban-ruralbreezes,inthecontextofthearidmountains-desertsysteminthenorthslopeofTianshanmountains.Inthisstudy,wefirstevaluated,duringthesummers2001-2013,theALAROregionalclimatemodelcoupledtothelandsurfaceschemeSURFEXat4kmspatialresolutionusing53nationalmeteorologicalstationsdistributedwithinXinjiang.Wefoundthatat4kmresolutionthemodelsimulatesthedailyvariationof2mtemperatureandrelativehumiditycorrectlyalthoughitoverestimatesrelativehumidityandunderestimatesthedailymeantemperature.A4-dayclearskyperiod (9-12June2016)hasbeensimulated inordertostudybothcirculationsandtheirmutualinteractions.Theresultsfrombothobservationsandmodelsimulationsshowthatthelowleveldivergenceoveroasisappearsonlybetween19:00and21:00BeijingTime(BJT)whenthebackgroundmountain-plainwindsystemisweakduringthelateafternoontransitionperiod.ThemodelsimulatesasynergisticinteractionbetweenOasis-desertbreezeandurban-ruralbreezefrom16:00until22:00BJTwithamaximumeffectat20:00BJTwhenthedowndraftoveroasis(updraftoverurban)areasincreasesby0.3x10-3(0.2x10-3Pas-1).TheresultsshowthattheoasisexpansiondecreasesthenocturnalurbanheatislandinthecityofUrumqiby0.8°C,whiletheimpactofurbanexpansionontheoasiscoldislandisnegligible.

Keywords: Oasis-desert breeze circulation, Urban-rural breeze circulation, Urban heat island,TEB



D4-P-03

Urbanizationandsurfaceclimatecasestudy:Morocco.

NajlaaFathi,FacultédesSciencesSemlaliaMarrakech(FSSM),UniversityofCadiAyyad,Morocco,Morocco

Urbanizationisamajorformoflandusethataffectssurfaceenergy,carbonandhydrologyinawaythatalters local-to-regionalclimate. It changes thenatural landsurfaceby reducing the fractionofvegetationwhichinducesareductioninphotosynthesisandtranspirationandthusleadstoasurfacewarming.

The building material such as masonry, asphalt and concrete affects the local energy balance byabsorbing,storing,andreradiatingmoresolarenergythanvegetationandnaturalsoiltypicalinruralareascreatingthustheso-called‘urbanheatisland’(UHI),whichisadifferentialheatinggeneratedbybuildingmaterialwithinthecitycoreascomparedtothesurroundingvegetatedarea.Thisurbanheat,combinedwithwarmingduetoclimatemayhaveimpactsintermofenergyuseandhumanhealth.

Duringthelastdecades,theworldhasexperiencedunprecedentedurbanexpansionandMoroccohasexperienceddemographicincreasesuchthatthemajorityitspopulationlivesinurbanareas.In2013,about57%ofthetotalpopulationlivedincitiesandthisrateisexpectedtoreach75%withinthenext10years.

InthisstudywewilluseMODISlandsurfacetemperature(LST),normalizedvegetationindexNDVIandthe land use land cover , and Landsat 8 data in a spatial analysis to assess the urban heat islandgeneratedbybuildups,itsamplitudeanditssizeforlargestcitiesinMorocco.Atemporalanalysiswillthenbeperformedtoquantifyhowchangeinclimatemayexacerbateurbanheatislands.

Theresultsofthisstudywillfacilitatethedevelopmentofasetofmitigationandadaptationmeasuresfordecisionmakersandurbanplannerstocreatesociallyandenvironmentallysustainablecities.

Keywords: Urbanization, Climate, Urban heat Island



D4-P-04

ImpactofclimatechangeonextremerainfalleventsoncoastalcitiesinthePhilippines

EmilioGozo,ManilaObservatory,Philippines

EmilioGozo,FayeAbigailCruz,ManilaObservatory,Philippines

DevelopingcountrysuchasthePhilippines,arehighlyvulnerabletofloodingcausedbyextremerainfalleventssuchastheenhancedSouthwestMonsoon(SWM)andtyphoons.Majorcitiesespeciallythosethatare inthecoastalregion,areevenmorevulnerableprimarilybecauseofhowthiskindof landcovercanmodifyheatandmoisturefluxesinthearea.Withthecontinuedgrowthanddevelopmentofthesecitiesalongwithincreasingpopulation,itisveryimportanttounderstandhowtheseclimatehazardswill change in a globallywarmer future. The aimof this study is to analyze the projectedchanges in extreme rainfall events due to climate change for the major cities in the Philippines.Historical and future multi-model projections from two scenarios (Representative ConcentrationPathway4.5and8.5)fromtheSoutheastAsiaRegionalClimateDownscaling(SEACLID)/CoordinatedRegional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Southeast Asia project is used in the climatechangeanalysis.Comparisonoftheintensity,frequencyanddurationofrainydaysfromthereferenceperiod(1971to2000)toearly(2016to2035),middle(2046to2065),andlate(2080to2099)futureperiodsiscarriedoutinthisstudy.Finally,extremerainfallshiftsparticularlyatreturnperiodsof50andaboveismeasuredandanalyzed.

Keywords: climate change, urbanization, extreme rainfall, regional climate models



D4-P-05

Convection-permittingsimulationsofurbanheatislandduringahot-weathercaseusing“weather-like”simulationmodeofRegCM4.7/CLM4.5

ZhenyuHan,NationalClimateCenter,CMA,China

Due mainly to computational limitations and costs, decade-long simulations over China withconvectionpermittingregionalclimatemodeling(CP-RCM,withgridspacingsunder4km)havebeenseldomconducted.ThepreviousstudiesshowthatCP-RCMsimulationshavepositiveindirecteffectson the representation of regional climate through various feedback mechanisms such as soilmoisture—temperatureandurbaneffects.Inthisstudy,ahot-weathercasefrom2Julyto6July2010overtheNorthChinaplainisselectedtoevaluatetheRCM—RegCM4.7/CLM4.5using“weather-like”simulationmode,priortolaunchingintoexpensivedecade-longsimulations.Especiallytheurbanheatisland(UHI)effectoverBeijingwasanalyzed.Exceptthecontrolrun,anidealizedsimulationwithalltheurbansurface replacedwithbaregroundandvegetationand fourother sensitivity simulationswere also performed. Based upon these experiments results, the effect of urban extent, urbancategories,anthropogenicheat release (AHR)duetoremovingheatbyairconditioningandenergyconsumptionbytheairconditionerswerediscussed.

The results show that, the RegCM4.7/CLM4.5 model reasonably reproduced the majority of theobservedspatialandtemporalcharacteristicsofthe2-mtemperaturefieldoverthesimulationperiod.StrongUHIeffectscancause intensificationandexpansionof theareasexperiencingextremeheatstress.Inthesimulation,anaveragetemperatureincreaseof0.67°Cinthecitycenter(averagedoverthesix-ringareaofBeijing)wasobservedunderhighurbanizationconditions.Comparisonsamongtheresultsofsixrunsshowedthaturbanlanduse,classificationofurbansubcategories,andconsiderationofAHRrespectivelycontributed46.3%(0.31°C),67.2%(0.45°C),and17.9%(0.12°C)tothesimulatedUHIeffects.TheAHRcanbefurtherbedecomposedintocoolingindoortemperature,wasteheatdueto removing heat by air conditioning, and waste heat due to energy consumption by the airconditioners,whichcontribute-433.3%(-0.52°C),250.0%(0.30°C),and100.0%(0.12°C)tototalAHReffect, respectively. It indicates that if waste heat from air conditioning systems is effectivelyrecovered,theAHReffectonUHIcanbelargelyreduced.TheUHIpeakreachedamaximumvalueof0.94°Cat2000LSTaroundsunset.Analysisofthesurfaceenergybalancewasalsoconducted.TheresultsshowedthattheUHIismainlycausedbyagreaterheatstorageintheurbanfabricduringthedayandthereleaseofthisheatintheevening.

Keywords: urban heat island,convection permitting



D4-P-06

Urbanareasunderclimatechange:whatdoestheEURO-CORDEXensembletell?AcasestudyinvestigatingnearsurfacehumidityinBerlin

GabyLangendijk,ClimateServiceCenterGermany(GERICS),Helmholtz-ZentrumGeesthacht,Hamburg,Germany

GabyLangendijk,DianaRechid,DanielaJacob,ClimateServiceCenterGermany(GERICS),Helmholtz-ZentrumGeesthacht,Hamburg,Germany

Urbanareasarepronetoclimatechangeimpacts.Thereisanincreasingneedtoequipdecisionmakerswithusefulclimateinformationtoadaptadequately.Though,manyoftheurbanclimatemodelsandregionalclimatemodelsarecurrentlyeithernotscalecompliantforcities,ordonotcoveressentialparametersand/orurban-ruralinteractions.Furthermore,althoughe.g.theurbanheatislandmaybebetterunderstood,otherphenomenasuchasmoisturechangearelittleresearched.Thisresearchaimsto improve theunderstandingof the change inmoistureand temperature variablesunder climatechange.AvailableEURO-CORDEX0.11°simulations forRCP8.5areanalysedforrelativeandspecifichumidity,aswellasfortemperaturevariablesthroughoutthecentury.Berlinistakenasacase-study.TheresultsshowthatallthemodelssimulateadifferencebetweenBerlinanditssurroundingsforthevariables.ThereisawatervapordeficitinBerlinanditisgenerallywarmer.Theoutcomesaresimilarbetweenthemodelsimulationsandobservations,thoughthereisaslightoverestimationofthewatervapordeficitinBerlinbythemodels.Therunningmeanover30yearsshowsadivergencethroughoutthecenturyforrelativehumiditybetweenBerlinanditssurroundings,withBerlingettingdryerovertime, validated by theMann-Kendall test. TheMann-Whitney-Wilcoxon test for relative humidityindicatesarobustclimatechangesignalinBerlin.Berlinisdryerandwarmerforallmonthswiththelargestdifferencecomparedtoitssurroundingsinthesummer.ResultsoftheregionalclimatemodelREMOisstudiedtogain furtherunderstanding in theprocessessupportingthe findings.Thisstudypresents promising results to understandmoisture change and related variables under long-termclimatechangeinurbanareas,potentiallyinterestingtourbanstudiesinotherCORDEXdomains.

Keywords: Urban, Humdity, EURO-CORDEX, Berlin, Climate Change



D4-P-07

Urbanenvironmentandregionalclimatechange:AcasestudyofIndianmetropolitancity

ShailendraMandal,NationalInstituteofTechnologyPatna,India,India

Indiaisexperiencingrapidurbanisation,andconsequentlywaterdemandinurbanareasisescalatingrapidly.ThemetropolitancityofIndiaisamongsttheoldestsurvivingcitiesintheworld.Despitethefact that city is located on the banks of the River Ganga, residents are primarily dependent ongroundwateraquifersfordomesticwatersupply.Thedeclineinthepiezometricheadofthedeeperaquiferduringtheprevioustwodecadesisanotherconcern.Thisraisesconcernsaboutthesecurityofmetropolitancity’swatersupply,and,hence,theeconomicvitalityandsustainabilityofthecity.

Inthisenvironment,withalreadyexistingpressuresonwateravailabilityanduse,climatechangeputsfurther stress on water management and the sustainability of water supplies. Climate change isalreadyhavingimpactsontemperature.Trendsintemperaturealsointeractwithnon-climaticfactors,whichcomplicateplanningforwatersupplyanddemandandincreaseswaterinsecurity.Moreover,regionalannualaveragemonthlymaximumtemperaturesareprojected to increase2.5°Cby2049,basedontheensembleaverageof41CMIP5modelsandassumptionsofmoderatefutureincreasesingreenhousegasemissions.Theseprojectedincreasesintemperaturewillputfurtherstressonwatersupplies. In addition, the increasing exposure to climate change, described above, will besuperimposedonexistingvulnerabilities.

Inordertoaddressthesevulnerabilities,andtoincreasetheresilienceofmetropolitancityofIndiainthe face of projected climate changes, the study recommends several measures, which includesincorporatingclimateinformationinurbanplanninganddevelopmentprocesses.Thestudyconcludesthattheserudimentarymeasures,whichareneededjusttoaddressmetropolitancity’snon-climatewater management concerns, are necessary as a stepping-stone to transformative pathways foraddressingtheuncertaintiesassociatedwithclimatechange.

Keywords: Urban environment, Urban water supply, Regional climate change, Projected climate change, Groundwater resource



D4-P-08

Effectsonlocaltemperatureandenergyofurbanexpansionlocatedinoasisinariddesertarea

MiaoZhang,NorthwestLandandResourcesResearchCenter,ShaanxiNormalUniversity,China

ThelandsurfacemodelSURFEX7.3wasusedtostudyclimateeffectofurbanexpansionlocatedinoasisinariddesertareabysurfaceand2-murbanheatisland(UHI)intensityandavailableenergyratio(B).Weperformedatrueregionaldevelopmentscenarioandfourassumedscenariossimulationsin1978,1993,2004and2014.Theresultsshowthatsimulated2-mtemperatureintruescenariowaswellconsistentwithobservation.2-mUHIalwaysdisplayspositivetwinpeaksduringwholeday,whilesurfaceUHIonlydisplaysapositivesinglepeakwithseveralhoursduringdaytimeatfourseasonsinthefouryears.Moreover,2-mUHIintensityduringnightishigherthanthatduringdaytime,indicatingthatUHIintensityiscontributedmoreby“trapeffect”fromurbancomplexgeometryoranthropogenicheatandthatsurfaceUHIaccordingtolandsurfacetemperaturecannotreflectUHIcomprehensively.The oasis-urban development resulted in local warming and increasing of B, and compared withoriginalundevelopedenvironment, local climate in studyareawas ina relativelybalancedstate in1978and1993dueto“heatingeffect”ofurbanand“coolingeffect”ofoasis,buttheoffsettingeffectfromoasiswouldbecomeweakerin2004and2014.

Keywords: Urban heat island, Climate effect, Arid area


D5: Introduction and application of ESGF in CORDEX-EA domain

ORAL PRESENTATIONS



CurrentstatusofCORDEX-EAdatacenteranditsfuturerole

Young-HwaByun,NationalInstituteofMeteorologicalSciences,SouthKorea

Young-HwaByun,Jin-UkKim,Tae-JunKim,Seok-WooShin,Tae-YoungGoo,NationalInstituteofMeteorologicalSciences,SouthKorea

CORDEX-EA Data Center has been managed and operated during several years by KoreaMeteorologicalAdministration(KMA)andNationalInstituteofMeteorologicalSciences(NIMS)sinceCORDEXPhase Idatasetswerereleased in2013.CORDEXPhase Idatasetsconsistofoutputsof5Regional ClimateModels (RCMs) which include evaluation runs with reanalysis data (ERA-Interimand/orNCEPDOEdata)andGCM-driven forcingrunusingHadGEM2-AOmodel.CORDEXdata is indemandsteadilyfrom2013whenthefirstdatawasreleasedtothepresentday.Accordingtostatistics,for6yearsfrom2013to2018,about4hundredthousandfileshavebeendownloadedbyresearchers,scientists,andtheothersinuniversities,institutesandindustrialsectorsthroughdatacenterweb(ftpsite).

Recently, CORDEX group has started Phase II activities, linkedwith IPCC AR6 schedule, andmanyresearch institutes and universities have begun to run regional climate model through CORDEXprotocol for model run and data requests. Therefore, NIMS started to make a plan to improvefunctionalitiesofdatacenterincludingrenovationofwebsite(http://cordex-ea.climate.go.kr).Also,constructionofESGFdatanodeconnectedwithDataCenterwebpagehasstartedwithAPECClimateCenter (APCC) forreleaseofnewdatasetspublishedbyCORDEXPhase IIactivities. Inthissession,futureroleofCORDEX-EADataCenterwith itscurrentstatuswillbediscussedinfosteringregionalactivitiessuchasregionalclimatestudies,datasharing,andapplicationofclimateinformation.

Keywords: CORDEX-EA, Data Center, Regional Climate, Climate Information



HowtogenerateanddistributetheCORDEX-EAmetadatathroughESGFDataNodeinAPECClimateCenter

JeongminHan,APECClimateCenter,SouthKorea

JeongminHan,JaewonChoi,APECClimateCenter,SouthKorea

Relatedexperimentsareincreasingrapidlytoproducethescenariodatanecessaryforglobalclimatechangeresponse.Theregionalclimatechangescenariomodelhasbeenimprovinginresolution,andthevolumeofdata is also continuously increasing. To facilitate the sharingof vast climate changeforecastdatausedintheIPCC(TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange)futureclimatechangescenarioreporting,countriesaroundtheworldareformingassociationsthatdistribute,serviceandstoredatainastandardizedstructure.

Inthisstudy,weanalyzedthesystemstructureofthedistributedstorageanddataexchangestandardsystem supported by ESGF (Earth System Grid Federation), the support for international climatechange response and climate service, participated in the establishment of international standardsystem, to support the response and participate in climate service, the APEC Climate Center hasestablished an international standards data clustering design and foundation for climate dataexchange.IthasbeencertifiedasadatanodeofESGFforinternationaljointuseofCORDEX-EAdatawhichisaregionalclimatemodel.

In order todistribute theCORDEX-EAMetadata to theworld,wehave touse ESGF indexnodeofSweden. ESGF data node of the APCC (APEC Climate Center) has been certified from ESGF (EarthSystemGrid Federation) to connectwith index node. Because, only systems certified by ESGF areallowedtotransfermetadata.ItwillbeexplainedhowtodistributeanddownloaddatausingAPCC’sdatanode.

Keywords: ESGF in KOREA, CORDEX-EA, APEC Climate Center, APCC



EstablishmentofESGFdatanodeintheAPECClimateCenterforprovidingCORDEX-EAdata

JeongminHan,APECClimateCenter,SouthKorea

ChoiJaewon,JeongminHan,APECClimateCenter,SouthKorea

Climate-relatedstudy isoneofthemostoverwhelmingfieldwhichaffectedbytheBigDataera,asclimatedatacontinuestogrowexponentially.Especially,itisverychallengingtomanagesuchever-increasingdatasets,includingmodelsimulations,observations,reanalysisproductsandsatellitedata.

TheEarthSystemGridFederation(ESGF),whichismulti-agency,internationalcollaborationofpeopleand institutionsworking together,hadbeen launchedandovercomeunprecedented limitationsasmentioned previously. The APEC Climate Center was established to provide customized climateinformationforAPECregionandisgivingeffortstomanageadatanodeforprovidingCORDEX-EAdatamoresystematicallyafterbeingcertifiedfromtheESGFwhichiscomposedoffourtypesofnode;Datanode,Indexnode,IdentityProvidernodeandComputenode.Inordertoensureastableoperationand satisfy requirementsof theESGFTier-2nodes, thedatenodehasbeenequippedwith servicesystemofhighavailability,earlystageservicestorageaswellasbackupstorage.Inaddition,varioussecurityequipmenthasbeenassociatedwiththesystemtoprovidemorereliableservice.

In conclusion, it is essential to collect data through several nations in order to providemore richCORDEX-EA data to users, policymakers or stakeholders. Additionally, an index node of the ESGFrepresenting the Asia region should be considered to improve metadata transfer environmentbetweendataandindexnode,andtopromotemutualtechnicalexchanges.

Keywords: CORDEX-EA, ESGF, data node, APCC



RegionalClimateModelPerformanceinSimulatingPresent-DayMeanClimateUsingCMIP5&CMIP6GCMs

JinUkKim,NationalInstituteofMeteorologicalSciences,SouthKorea

JinUkKim,Seok-WooShin,Tae-JunKim,Tae-YoungGoo,Young-HwaByun,NationalInstituteofMeteorologicalSciences,SouthKorea

Climatemodels are sophisticated tools designed to simulate the regional climate system and thecomplexinteractionsbetweenitscomponents.However,climatemodelsarenotperfectandcontainsuncertainty.Inparticular,regionalclimatemodelsmayincludenotonlyerrorsoftheirown,butalsoerrorsoftheinputdata,GCM.Tocomplementthis,CORDEXframeworkisconductingmultipleGCM-RCMexperiments.ToanalyzeclimatechangethroughmultipleGCM-RCMexperiments,itisnecessarytoanalyzethecharacteristicsofeachmodelandevaluateitsperformance.Inthisstudy,weevaluatetheperformanceofeachmodeloftheEastAsiangroupparticipatinginCORDEX.Wealsocomparetheperformance of the CMIP6 GCM forcing (UK-ESM) experiment and the CMIP5 GCMs forcingexperiment.

Toobjectivelyquantifytheagreementbetweenmodelandobservation,weusethemethodofReichlerand Kim (2008) composed of the normalized RMSE about 30 different key climate variables. ThemodelstobeevaluatedareCORDEX-EARCMmodelsusingCMIP5GCMandCMIP6GCMsforcing.Weused a number of observational and reanalyses such as ERA-I, CRU, CERES, and ISCCP for RCMevaluation.Thebaseperiodoftheobservationswas1979~2005.Themodelswerecomparedagainstpresent(1979~2005)climate.

Keywords: CORDEX-EA, RCM, model performance, CMIP6 forcing



AddedvaluesbydynamicaldownscalingforhighimpactweathersimulationsoverCORDEXEastAsiadomain

Dong-HyunCha,UlsanNationalInstituteofScienceandTechnology

Dong-HyunCha,GayoungKim,MinkyuLee,Dong-HyuckYoon,UlsanNationalInstituteofScienceandTechnologyDong-KyouLee;KoreaMeteorologicalAdministration,Korea;Joong-BaeAhn;PusanNationalUniversity,Myoung-SeokSuh,PohangUniversityofScienceandTechnology;Seung-KiMin,

PohangUniversityofScienceandTechnology

CORDEX East Asia Experiments in Korea supported by the Korea Meteorological Administration have been conducted using 5 RCMs since 2009. In this study, we investigate the added values by dynamical downscaling for high impact weather simulations under CORDEX East Asia Experiments by comparing the results of Phase I and II experiments. In general, RCMs with higher-resolution more reasonably capture the spatial distribution of precipitation over the Korean Peninsula compared to those with lower-resolution. In particular, large precipitation regions related to complex mountain ranges are well simulated due to detailed topography in RCMs with higher-resolution. The difference between RCMs with dissimilar resolutions is relatively robust for extreme precipitation during summer season indicating that higher-resolution and detailed topography lead to more realistic simulation of heavy precipitation related to mesoscale processes. Also, increasing model resolution results in improved simulation of typhoon activity over the western North Pacific. Although simulated typhoon activity is significantly affected by model configurations, higher-resolution RCMs in Phase II generally reproduce more realistic typhoon intensity compared with lower-resolution RCMS in Phase I, in particular for strong typhoon with above 40 m s-1 maximum wind speed. Therefore, large precipitation amount over the Korean Peninsula for the late summer and early fall associated with typhoon activity can be properly captured by higher-resolution RCMs in Phase II. In addition, RCMs in Phase II have an ability to reduce systematic cold bias of surface air temperature for heat wave cases due to more detailed topography and improved simulation of regional processes such as the Foehn effect. In summary, higher-resolution RCMs in Phase II can improve the simulation of high impact weather and climate compare with lower-resolution RCMs in Phase I.

Keywords: CORDEX-East Asia, Added Value



ProjectionoffuturechangesinextremeprecipitationindicesoverSouthKorea

GayoungKim,UlsanNationalInstituteofScienceandTechnology

GayoungKim,Dong-HyunCha,ChangyongPark,GilLee,UlsanNationalInstituteofScienceandTechnology;Chun-SilJin,KoreaInstituteofNuclearSafety;Dong-KyouLee,KoreaMeteorologicalAdministration;Myoung-SeokSuh,KongjuNationalUniversity;Joong-BaeAhn,PusanNationalUniversity;Seung-KiMin,PohangUniversityofScienceandTechnology;Song-YouHong,KoreaInstituteofAtmosphericPredictionSystems;Hyun-SukKang,NationalInstituteofMeteorological

Sciences

In this study, theregionalclimateof theKoreanPeninsula isdynamicallydownscaledusingahigh-resolutionregionalclimatemodelforcedbytworepresentativeconcentrationpathwayscenariosofHadleyCentreGlobalEnvironmentalModelversion2-AtmosphereandOcean(HadGEM2-AO)usingmultipleregionalclimatemodels.Changesinextremeprecipitationindicesareinvestigated.Throughtheevaluationofthepresentclimate,amulti-modelensemblereasonablyreproducesthelong-termclimatologyofextremeprecipitationindicesoverSouthKoreadespitesomesystematicerrors.Bothmeanandextremeprecipitationintensitiesfor80yearsinthefuture(2021–2100)increasecomparedtothoseofthepresent.However,theincreasingratesofindicesrelatedtoprecipitationintensitiesaredifferentaccordingtosub-period,season,andemissionscenarios.Meanandextremeprecipitationintensitiesofthefutureclimateincreaseduringthesummerwhenmostextremeprecipitationeventsoccur over the Korean Peninsula. Also, abnormal extremeprecipitation can increase during futuresummersduetoincreasingvariancesofindicesrelatedtoextremeprecipitationintensity.Increasingextreme summer precipitation over South Korea is proportional to the increases in convectiveprecipitationcomparedtonon-convectiveprecipitation.Thisindicatesthatfuturechangesinsummerprecipitation, with regard to intensity and frequency, over South Korea, among representativeconcentrationpathwayscenarios,aremorerelatedtoachangeinconvectiveinstabilityratherthanthesynopticcondition.

Keywords: climate change, extreme precipitation, South Korea,regional climate model, STARDEX, multi-RCM, HadGEM2-AO



FuturechangeintropicalcycloneactivityoverthewesternNorthPacificinCORDEX-EastAsiaMulti-RCMsforcedbyHadGEM2-AO

MinkyuLee,UNIST,SouthKorea

MinkyuLee,UNIST,SouthKorea;Chun-SilJin,KoreaInstituteofNuclearSafety,SouthKorea;HyeonjaeLee,TahyungKim,Dong-HyunCha,UNIST,SouthKorea;Dong-KyouLee,SeoulNationalUniversity,SouthKorea;Myoung-SeokSuh,KongjuNationalUniversity,SouthKorea;Song-YouHong,KoreaInstituteofAtmosphericPredictionSystems,SouthKorea;Hyun-SukKang,Korea

MeteorologicalAdministration,SouthKorea

Futurechangesintropicalcyclones(TCs)activitiesoverthewesternNorthPacific(WNP)areanalyzedusing four regional climate models (RCMs) within the Coordinated Regional Climate DownscalingExperiment(CORDEX)forEastAsia.AllRCMsareforcedbytheHadGEM2-AOunderthehistoricalandRepresentative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios, and are performed at about 50 kmresolutionovertheCORDEX-EastAsiadomain.Inthehistoricalsimulations(1980–2005),multi-RCMensemblesyieldrealisticclimatologyforTCtracksandgenesisfrequencyduringtheTCseason(June–November), although they show somewhat systematic biases in simulating TC activity. The future(2024–2049)projectionsindicateaninsignificantincreaseinthetotalnumberofTCgenesis(+5%),butasignificantincreaseintrackdensityoverEastAsiacoastalregions(+17%).TheenhancedTCactivityover the East Asia coastal regions is mainly related to vertical wind shear weakened by reducedmeridionaltemperaturegradientandincreasedseasurfacetemperature(SST)atmid-latitudes.Thefutureaccumulatedcycloneenergy(ACE)oftotalTCsincreasessignificantly(+19%)becauseindividualTCshavealongerlifetime(+6.6%)andstrongermaximumwindspeed(+4.1%)comparedtothoseinthehistoricalrun.Inparticular,theACEofTCspassingthrough25°Nincreasesby45.9%inthefutureclimate,indicatingthatthedestructivenessofTCscanbesignificantlyenhancedinthemid-latitudesdespitethetotalnumberofTCnumbernotbeingchangedgreatly.

Keywords: tropical cyclone, CORDEX-East Asia, RCP scenario, climate change



Asiansummermonsoonchangesatdifferentlevelsofglobalwarming:Amulti-RCMsstudy

DonghyunLee,POSTECH,SouthKorea

DonghyunLee,Seung-KiMin,POSTECH,SouthKorea

ThisstudyinvestigatessummerprecipitationchangesoverAsiaatdifferentglobalwarminglevelsfromParisAgreement(+1.5and2.0°C,relativetopre-industriallevel)andstrongerwarming(+2.5and3.0°C)usingmulti-RCMsimulationsfromCORDEXEastAsiaPhaseIIexperiments.FiveRCMs(RegCM4,SNU-MM5,WRF,CCLM,HadGEM3-RA)weredynamicallydownscaleddrivenbythreeCMIP5GCMs(GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-AO and MPI-ESM-LR) under 8.5 scenario simulations. 10-year periodscorrespondingtotheglobalwarminglevelswereselectedfromboundaryGCMs,byassumingrecent10years(2006-2015)as+0.87°Cwarmerthanpre-industriallevel(IPCC,2018).RCMscanreproduceoverall characteristics of Asian summer monsoon precipitation, but with systematic bias patternsresemblingthosefromboundaryGCMs.Largeinter-RCMdifferencesarefoundinmeanprecipitationchanges. However, extreme precipitation (upper 99%ile of summer precipitation) show goodagreement acrossRCMs,which is intensified as globalwarming levels increase. This indicates thatglobalwarmingmitigationbenefitwillmanifestitselfmorestronglyinextremeprecipitationoverAsianregion,supportingpreviousstudies.Physicalmechanisms(dynamicalandthermodynamiceffects)andquantificationofuncertaintysources(GCMsandRCMs)willbefurtherdiscussed

Keywords: CORDEX-East Asia, Paris Agreement, Asian summer monsoon, Extreme precipitation


D6: Hybrid downscaling methods: How can CORDEX benefit from

statistical approaches?

ORAL PRESENTATIONS


D6: Hybrid downscaling methods: How can CORDEX benefit from statistical approaches?

Thebestofbothworlds:Processed-basedanddata-drivenregionalclimate

EthanGutmann,NCAR,UnitedStates

EthanGutmann,RoyRasmussen,TrudeEidhammer,NCAR,UnitedStates;JeffreyArnold,USACE,UnitedStates

Whiledynamicalregionalclimatemodelingisappealingtothephysicalscientist,itscomputationalcostisobjectionable to theapplied scientist. In contrast,while simple statisticaldownscaling toolsareappealing to stakeholders for their ability to generate large ensembles, the physical and appliedscientistsrecognizestheimplausibilityandphysical inconsistenciesinsuchmethods.Wehavebeendevelopingaregionalclimateapproachstartingfromphysicalprocesses,andincorporatingasimpleformofdataassimilationtokeepthesimplificationsinoneareaofthemodelfromharmingothers.We will discuss the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research model (ICAR), a simplifiedatmosphericmodelcapableofrunning100-1000timesfasterthanatraditionalregionalclimatemodel.ICARreliesonphysicsandfirstprincipalswhereitiscurrentlycomputationallypossible,forexamplefororographicprecipitation,andsimplerphysicalparameterizationsaidedbydatadrivenstochasticprocessestoprovideaconvectiveparameterizationapplicableatwhatwouldordinarilybeconsidered"convectionresolving"gridscales(<6km).Weshowthatthisapproachcapturesmanyoftheexpectedchangesinregionalclimatesignalssuchasthesnowalbedofeedback,windandrain/snowfallspeeddrivenorographicprecipitationshifts,andincreasesinextremeprecipitation.Inaddition,becauseweare able to examine a large ensemble of climate projections we can also understand howcompensatorychangescaninteract.Forexample,increasesinhighelevationprecipitationcancounterincreasedtemperaturedrivenmeltingofsnowandminimizethesnowalbedofeedbackeffect.

Keywords: quasi-dynamical, orographic precipitation, snow albedo feedback, mountain


D7: Climate Services developments

in the frame of CORDEX and their transferability

ORAL PRESENTATIONS


D7: Climate Services developments in the frame of CORDEX and their transferability

Supportingdevelopingcountrieswithrobustscienceanddatatodeveloptransformationalprojectsforclimateaction.

JosephIntsiful,GreenClimateFund,Ghana

TheGreenClimateFund(GCF)isthemainfacilityundertheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimate Change to mobilize finance at scale for the implementation of the Paris Agreement.Establishing the climate rationale at the project scale remains one of themajor challenges facingdeveloping countries in their efforts to design quality proposals to access GCF resources. Robustclimateinformationattheappropriateresolutionandscalecaninformdesignofbetterclimateactionstoreducecurrentandlong-termclimaterisks.TheParisAgreementcallsfor“strengtheningscientificknowledge on climate, including research, systematic observation of the climate system and earlywarningsystems,inamannerthatinformsclimateservicesandsupportsdecision-making”.TheGCFhas approved over $1.5 billion of projects for developing climate information and early warningsystemsindevelopingcountries.ThispresentationwilldiscusstheGCFinvestmentcriteriaandpoliciesandoutlinehowtheCORDEXinitiativecansupportdevelopingcountriestodesignqualityGCFprojects.

Keywords:investments,CORDEX



RegionalclimatesimulationsfortheimpactofclimatechangeovertheCAS-CORDEXdomain

SaraTop,GhentUniversity,Belgium

SaraTop,GhentUniversity,Belgium;SvetlanaAniskevich,LatvianEnvironment,GeologyandMeteorologyCentre,Latvia;LeonidBobylev,NansenInternationalEnvironmentalandRemote

SensingCentre,RussianFed;StevenCaluwaerts,GhentUniversity,Belgium;LesleyDeCruz,RoyalMeteorologicalInstituteofBelgium,Belgium;PhilippeDeMaeyer,GhentUniversity,Belgium;

RozemienDeTroch,RoyalMeteorologicalInstituteofBelgium,Belgium;NataliaGnatiuk,NansenInternationalEnvironmentalandRemoteSensingCentre,RussianFed;AnneGobin,FlemishInstituteforTechnologicalResearch(VITO),Belgium;RafiqHamdi,RoyalMeteorologicalInstituteofBelgium,Belgium;LolaKotova,ClimateServiceCenterGermany,Germany;ArneKriegsmann,ClimateService

CenterGermany,Germany;ArmelleRecaRemedio,ClimateServiceCenterGermany,Germany;AbdullaSakalli,IskenderunTechnicalUniversity,Turkey;AndreySirin,InstituteofForestScience

RussianAcademyofSciences,RussianFed;PietTermonia,RoyalMeteorologicalInstituteofBelgium,Belgium;HansVanDeVyver,RoyalMeteorologicalInstituteofBelgium,Belgium;BertVanSchaeybroeck,RoyalMeteorologicalInstituteofBelgium,Belgium;AndrisViksna,Latvian

Environment,GeologyandMeteorologyCentre,Latvia

TheAFTERprojectwasinitiatedtoinvestigatethe“Impactofclimatechangeandclimateextremesonthe Agriculture and Forestry in the Europe-Russia-Turkey Region”. In this context high-resolutionclimatedatawasproducedbyrunningtheRCMsALARO-0andREMOataresolutionof25kmovertheCentral Asia (CAS)-CORDEX domain. Themodelswere evaluated by comparing the output of ERA-InterimdrivenrunswithCRUdataoverthe1980-2017period.Differentclimatevariablesthatwillbeusedlaterasinputforcropandvegetationmodelsarevalidated.

FirstvalidationresultsshowthatbothRCMsreproducerealisticspatialpatternsfortemperatureandprecipitation,withbiasesinanacceptablerange.Similarprecipitationbiasesappearforbothmodelswithastrongwetwinterbiasintheeastandadrysummerbiasinthesouth-westernpartoftheCAS-CORDEXdomain.Incontrast,therearedifferencesbetweentheRCMsintermsofspatialbiaspatternsforairtemperature.Forbothvariableslargebiasesareobservedoverthemountainousareasbutthesecouldbelargelyattributedtotheobservationalerror.

TheclimatechangeresultsovertheCAS-CORDEXdomainusingCMIP5drivensimulationsenableanassessmentofclimateimpactsandextremeevents.TheREMOmodelisdrivenbythreeGCMs(MPI-ESM,HadGEMandNorESM),whileALAROisdrivenbyCNMR-CM5.Thecomparisonofthehistoricalperiodwiththefuturemodeloutputupto2100allowstoestimatetheresponseoftheclimateoverCentralAsiaunderthescenariosRCP2.6,RCP4.5(onlyforALARO)andRCP8.5.

The AFTER consortium bridges the gap between supply and demand of climate information byimplementingthenewlycreatedclimatedatadirectly intocropandvegetationmodels.Forspecificsub-regionsofLatvia,TurkeyandmajorcropareasofRussiadetailedstudieswillbedone.Inadditionstakeholders from different countries in the CAS-CORDEX domain are involved in discussing thescientificresults.

Keywords: ALARO,REMO,climate change impact,CAS-CORDEX,RCM



CORDEXdataintheClimateDataStore(CDS)oftheCopernicusClimateChangeService(C3S):currentstatusandplans

AndrasHoranyi,ECMWF,UnitedKingdom

AndrasHoranyi,AncaBrookshaw,;CedricBergeron,CarloBuontempo,ECMWF,UnitedKingdom

The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) implemented by ECMWFon behalf of the EuropeanUnionprovidesauthoritativeclimateserviceinformationaboutthepast,presentandfutureclimateinEuropeandelsewherethroughitsClimateDataStore(CDS).Climatedataforthefuturedecadesareprovidedbyglobalandregionalclimateprojections.TheregionalclimateprojectionsaccessiblefromtheClimateDataStorearetakenfromtheCORDEXdatabasethroughtheEarthSystemGridFederation(ESGF)dataandcomputingnodes.ThepresentationisgoingtosummarisethemainobjectivesofC3S,thecontentoftheCDSwithspecialemphasisonthedetailsoftheCORDEXregionalclimateprojectioninformationandplansfortheextensionofCORDEXdatasetsintheCDS.

Keywords: Copernicus Climate Change Service,Climate Data Store


D7: Climate Services developments

in the frame of CORDEX and their transferability



CHRISTENSEN Ole Theneedforflexibleselectionofclimatesimulationsub-ensemblesforimpactassessmentinaclimateservice D7-P-01

ESABU Anthony Smallholderfarmers’perceptionsandadaptationstoclimatechangeandvariabilityinKatakwiidistrict,Uganda D7-P-02

FITA Lluís ClimatechangeestimationsoffluvialdischargefromthemainAndeanrivers D7-P-03

GLEIXNER StephanieTheEastAfrica-Peru-IndiaClimateCapacities(EPICC)projectisco-developingclimateservicesforandwithpartnersfromthewater,agricultureandrelatedsectors.

D7-P-04



D7-P-01

Theneedforflexibleselectionofclimatesimulationsub-ensemblesforimpactassessmentinaclimateservice

OleB.Christensen,DanishMeteorologicalInstitute,Denmark

OleB.Christensen,DanishMeteorologicalInstitute,Denmark;MarianneS.Madsen,DanishMeteorologicalInstitute,Denmark;RasmusBenestad,Met.Norway,Norway;AndreasDobler,Met.Norway,Norway;KajsaM.Parding,Met.Norway,Norway;OlleRäty,UniversityofHelsinki,Finland;

JouniRäisänen,UniversityofHelsinki,Finland;KimmoRuosteenoja,FinnishMeteorologicalInstitute,Finland;PeterUkkonen,FinnishMeteorologicalInstitute,Finland;HarilaosLoukos,TheclimateDataFactory,France;ElisabethViktor,ClimateServiceCentreGermany,Germany;JulianeOtto,ClimateServiceCentreGermany,Germany;GabriellaZsebeházi,HungarianMeteorological

Institute,Hungary;PeterSzabó,HungarianMeteorologicalInstitute,Hungary;AnttiMäkelä,FinnishMeteorologicalInstitute,Finland;HilppaGregow,FinnishMeteorologicalInstitute,Finland

DECM(C3S_51_Lot4,DataEvaluationforClimateModels)wasaCOPERNICUSprojectintheEvaluationandQualityControlblockdealingwithclimatemodelresultsandhowtoevaluatesimulationsfortheCOPERNICUSClimateDataStore(CDS),whichiscurrentlybeingdevelopedattheECMWF.

DECMhadastrongfocusontherelationbetweenuserrequirements,data inventoryandscientificqualityassuranceinordertorecommenduser-friendlyandfit-for-purposetoolsandservicesfortheEvaluationandQualityControlframeworkoftheCOPERNICUSClimateDataStore,whichwillcontainbothregional(CORDEX)andglobal(CMIP)data..

This posterwill present general findings and recommendations from thework on scientificmodelassessmentandgapanalysisoftherelationbetweenuserneedsanddataavailability.Wepresentthemainconclusionsidentifiedinthisprojectrelatedtotheveryimportantchallengeofhowtoperformselection of sub-ensembles of climate model simulations. For advanced use, e.g. as input toquantitative impacts models, it is frequently necessary to select smaller sub-ensembles of largerexistingensembles.ThisisincreasinglyimportantasCMIPandCORDEXmodelsimulationcollectionsconstantlygrow.

Keywords: sub-ensemble selection, climate model uncertainty



D7-P-02

Smallholderfarmers’perceptionsandadaptationstoclimatechangeandvariabilityinKatakwiidistrict,Uganda

AnthonyEsabu,FarmAfricaUganda,NGO,Uganda

Theeffectsofclimatechangehavehighlychallengedtheproductivityoftheagriculturalsector.Theincreasingtemperaturesanderraticrains,aswellasdiseasesandpestshavesignificantlyreducedcropyieldsinthearidandsemi-aridregionsofUganda.Thoughclimatechangehasbeenthetalkoftheday,many farmers in the grassroots havehardly adopted any responseoptions andhave continued tosuffer losses from the inherent effects of climate change. The present study sought to assess theperceptionsofsmallscalefarmersonclimatechangeinselectedsubcountiesinKatakwiidistrictandidentify adaptation measures adopted by the farmers in response to climate change. Descriptivesurveydesignwasused.Atotalof177householdswererandomlyselectedtoconstitutethestudysample.DatawascodedandanalyzedusingSPSSversion20.Theresultsshowedthatmostfarmershadperceivedachangingclimatewith74%and100%oftherespondentsinKapujanandToromasubcountiesrespectively,reportinganincreaseintemperatureovertheyears.Regardingprecipitation,100%and97%oftherespondentsinKapiujanandToromasubcountiesrespectively,hadnoticedadecreaseintheaverageannualrainfalloverthelasttwodecades.Further,theresultsindicatedthat76%and88%oftherespondentsinToromaandKapujansubcountiesrespectivelyhadadoptedvariousadaptationoptions inresponsetothedecreasingrainfallandtheunpredictableonsetofrains.Thestudyestablishedthatfarmersindrierareasperceivedclimatechangemoreandhadadaptedmoretoclimatechangeandvariabilityascomparedtothoseinwetterareas.Moreresourcesintermsofcreditfacilities,accesstoclimatechangeinformationandextensionservicesshouldbeavailedtofarmersinareasaffectedmorebyclimatechangeandvariabilitytoincreasetheirresilience.

Keywords: Arid and semi-arid lands; Crop yields; Climate change; Drought resistant crops; Perceptions ,Arid and semi-arid lands; Crop yields; Climate change; Drought resistant crops; Perceptions



D7-P-03

ClimatechangeestimationsoffluvialdischargefromthemainAndeanrivers

LluísFita,CentrodeInvestigacionesdelMarylaAtmósfera(CIMA/UBA-CONICET)&IFAECI(UMI3351-IFAECI/CNRS-IRD-CONICET-UBA),BuenosAires,Argentina

LluísFita,CentrodeInvestigacionesdelMarylaAtmósfera(CIMA/UBA-CONICET)&IFAECI(UMI3351-IFAECI/CNRS-IRD-CONICET-UBA),BuenosAires,Argentina;AndreaF.Carril,Centrode

InvestigacionesdelMarylaAtmósfera(CIMA/UBA-CONICET)&IFAECI(UMI3351-IFAECI/CNRS-IRD-CONICET-UBA),BuenosAires,Argentina;RicardoVillalba,InstitutoArgentinodeNivologıa,

GlaciologıayCienciasAmbientales(IANIGLA),CCT-CONICET-Mendoza,CNRSUMI-3351IFAECI,Mendoza,Argentina;JanPolcher,LaboratoiredeMétéorologieDynamique(LMD),IPSL,France

Freshwater resources are essential for sustaining ecosystems and human activities. The AndeanmountainrangeisanelongatedseriesofmountainsstretchingfromnorthtosouthallalongtheSouthAmericancontinent.InthisstudywepresentestimationoftheprojectedchangesindischargefromallmajorriverbasinsinSouthAmerica.Theseestimationsaredevelopedinasimplewaybyperforming‘off-line’ simulations with the routing scheme of the ORCHIDEE land model forced by CORDEXdynamicalregionaldownscaleddatasets.Ourresultsarethefirstattempttoprovideadepictionoftheevolutionof thewater resources for theentire regionmakinguseof a simple, limitedbut reliablemethodology.

Keywords: Fresh water, Climate projection



D7-P-04

TheEastAfrica-Peru-IndiaClimateCapacities(EPICC)projectisco-developingclimateservicesforandwithpartnersfromthewater,

agricultureandrelatedsectors.

StephanieGleixner,PotsdamInstituteforClimateImpactResearch,Germany

StephanieGleixner,HolgerHoff,KiraVinke,PotsdamInstituteforClimateImpactResearch

FundedbytheInternationalClimateInitiative(IKI)theprojectstartsfromaclearstatementofdemandbyanationalagency(ministry)intherespectivepartnercountry.Throughthisinitiallink,EPICChasestablisheddialogueswithanetworkofpartnersfrompolicymaking,theprivatesector,civilsocietyandscienceinTanzania,PeruandIndia,withnationalmeteorologicalservicesplayingacentralrole.Jointlywiththesepartners,EPICCidentifieslocaluser-demandsforclimateservicesandcapacities.Indoing so,we recognize thedifferent contexts, vulnerabilities, adaptationoptionsanddemands forcapacitydevelopmentacrossthethreepartnercountries,atnationalandsub-nationallevel.

Based on scientific products such as seasonal forecasts, climate scenarios and hydrological andagriculturalimpactassessments,EPICCassessesintegratedadaptationoptionsthatstrengthenclimateresilience, help to achieve national development goals and potentially reducemigration pressure.Methods employed include statistical and process-based modeling, field surveys, data synthesis,advancedvisualization techniques,webplatforms, localworkshopsandtrainingsessionsandotherformats.

ChallengesthatEPICCisfacingincludetheneedforcontinuousinteraction,forestablishingmethodsandstructuresthatlastbeyondtheprojectperiod,andtobridgetheoftenlargegapbetweenscienceand policy- and decision-making. For that we closely cooperate with related projects, with otherclimate services initiatives, with various national and sub-national institutions and also withdevelopment cooperation. In an iterative process the concept of climate services is explained topartnersandoperationalized,thatwayovercomingconcernsthatEPICC(likeotherprojectsinthepast)mightwanttoexploitthenationalpartnersandtheirdatawithouttangiblebenefitforthemandtheircountries.Thisjointdefinitionofrelevantissues,researchquestions,productsandeventuallybuildingoftrusttakestime.

Keywords: Climate Services,Co-development

Documents

Parallel Session A: Advances in regional downscalingicrc-cordex2019.cordex.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/10/Abstract... · Parallel Session A: Advances in regional downscaling