What’s for dinner in 2035?

ASEAN Regional Conference on Food Security

9 October 2013 Tee, E.-S. and Soon, J.M.

Changing Trends in Dietary Pattern and Implications to Food and Nutrition

Security in ASEAN

ASEAN Regional Conference on Food Security

9 October 2013 Tee, E.-S. and Soon, J.M.

Outline Introduction

Nutrition security, transition and changes in dietary pattern

Scenario of changes in agricultural production and diets

Conclusion and Recommendations

Implications to food and nutritional security

Nutrition and health concerns

Intervention strategies

Drivers for changing dietary pattern

Is food readily available? (Availability)

Ease of physical access(Accessibility)

Food Security When: • All population,

• at all times • have physical and economical access

• to safe and nutritious food

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Ease of economical access(Affordability)

Nutrients metabolism and utilisation (Utilisation)

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613 million - Year 2035

Nutrition transition

Urbanization, economic growth, mass media growth, technological changes for work, food processing and leisure activities

Stage 1 Paleolithic man Hunter-gather

Wild plants, animals, water, labor intensive

Lean and robust, high disease rate

Low fertility and life expectancy

Stage 2 Settlement begins,

famine emerges

Cereals dominate, water,

labor intensive

Nutritional deficiencies

emerge

High fertility and low life expectancy

Stage 3 Industrialization, famine declines

Starchy, low-fat, high fiber foods, labor intensive

work

Infectious diseases, weaning disease,

stunting

Slow mortality decline

Stage 4 Non-communicable

diseases

Increased fat, sugar, processed food, shift in technology of work and

leisure

Obesity emerges, non-communicable diseases

emerge

High life expectancy; increased disability

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Lao PDR Cambodia Myanmar Philippines Indonesia Viet Nam Thailand Malaysia Brunei

Kil

aca

lori

es

/ c

ap

ita

/ d

ay

South East Asia Countries

1970 2009

Figure 2. 1970 vs. 2009: Energy availability in ASEAN countries (kcal/capita/day)

Predicted kcal consumption – 2900 – 3200 kcal/day for developing countries by year 2030

Figure 3. Rice production and consumption in SEA countries

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2009

Ric

e c

on

sum

pti

on

(1

00

0 m

etr

ic t

on

s)

Ric

e p

rod

uct

ion

(1

00

0 m

etr

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on

s)

Year

Brunei Darussalam Myanmar Indonesia

Cambodia Lao People's Democratic Republic Malaysia

Philippines Thailand Viet Nam

Domestic utilization as food

285 million

613 million

200%

100%

Figure 4. Kilocalorie contribution of various food commodity in Malaysia

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2009

Kca

l /

da

y /

ca

pit

a s

up

ply

Year

Sugars and Sweeteners

Fats and oils

Fish and seafood

Meat

Vegetables

Fruits

Wheat

Rice

From staple diet to WMOFS (Wheat, meat, oil, fat and sugar)

Drivers for change in dietary pattern

Burgerization

Local fast food consumption

Increase in income and socioeconomic gains

Urbanization and access to social and mass media

International food trade

Foreign direct investment

Emergence of supermarkets and fast food chains

Shift from fish, forestry and agricultural sector to manufacturing and services

Implications to food and nutritional security

• Increase in non-communicable diseases

• Consequences of production and consumption of meat and fish

• Increasing pressure on environment

• “Food miles”

• Dietary change, less physical activities, sedentary lifestyle and occupational changes

National Plan of Action for Nutrition II (2006 – 2015) (NPAN II)

• Promote healthier food options

• Economic measures

• Malaysia’s nutritional policies and National Plan of Action for Nutrition

Intervention Strategies

General Objective of NPANM II:

to achieve and maintain optimal nutritional well-being of Malaysians

Malaysia’s nutritional policies and National Plan of Action for Nutrition

To ensure effective implementation, monitoring and evaluation of the Plan of Action, strategies of the Plan are oriented into

Foundation

Enabling and

Facilitating Strategies

Foundation Strategy

Incorporating nutrition objectives, considerations and components into national development policies and programmes

Specific Objectives To enhance the

nutritional status of population

To prevent and control diet-related

non-communicable diseases

General Objective: TO ACHIEVE AND MAINTAIN OPTIMAL NUTRITIONAL WELL-BEING OF

MALAYSIANS

Improving household food security especially among the low income group

Promoting optimal infant and young children feeding practices

Preventing and controlling nutritional deficiencies

Promoting healthy eating and active living

Supporting efforts to protect consumers in food quality and safety

Enabling Strategies

Ensuring all have

access to nutrition

information

Continuous assessment & monitoring of

nutrition situation

Promoting continuous

research &

development

Ensuring nutrition & dietetics are

practiced by trained

professionals

Strengthening institutional capacity in nutritional

activities

Facilitating Strategies

Change in dietary pattern among ASEAN counterparts (staple to WMOFS diet)

Conclusion

Per capita energy availability has risen significantly over the years

Changes in consumption pattern and lifestyle have led to obesity and non-communicable dietary related diseases

Action plan and intervention strategies

Thank You