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a multidisciplinary climate and environmental change initiative focused on the Northern Eurasian regions
a bottom up initiative by several European, Russian and Chinese research organizations and institutes e.g. Aerocosmos, Moscow State Univ., Russia, University of Nanjing, RADI, China
set for years 2013‐2033 – long‐term continuing activity
THE PAN-EURASIAN EXPERIMENT (PEEX)
PEEX VisionTo resolve the major uncertainties in the Earth system science and global sustainability questions in the Arctic and boreal Pan‐Eurasian region influencing the human well‐being and societies in the northern Eurasia.
to establish and maintenance of long‐term, coherent and coordinated research activities and research & educational infrastructures
to contribute to the Earth system science agenda and climate policy in topics important to the Pan‐Eurasian environment
to provide adaptation and mitigation strategies for the northern Pan‐Eurasian societies to cope with climate change.
PEEX involving research communities from 18 countries
PEEX‐2 in Moscow 12‐14.Feb2013PEEX‐1 in Helsinki 2‐4.Oct 2012
PEEX‐4 in St.Petersburg 5‐6.Mar.2014PEEX‐3 in Hyytiälä 26‐28.Aug.2013
PEEX involving research communities from 18 countriesPEEX‐ China Kick off in Beijing 20‐21.Nov.2013
A funding to support the further development of PEEX programme
PEEX‐China PIs Prof. Guo Huadong, Prof. Li Chongyin and Prof. Peng Gongbing
set up a PEEX Beijing Office hosted by the Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth (RADI), the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS).
Preparatory CommitteeAcademy Prof. Markku Kulmala Univ.Helsinki , FinlandProf. Sergej Zilitinkevich FMI, FinlandDirector Yrjö Viisanen FMI, FinlandProf. Vladimir Kotlyakov Inst. of Geography, RussiaProf. Nikoly Kasimov Moscow State University, RussiaProf. Valeriy Bondur AEROCOSMOS, RussiaProf. Alexander Baklanov, WMOProf. Gennady Matvienko Inst. of Atmospheric Optics SB RAS, RussiaProf. Guo Huadong, Center for Earth Observation and Digital Earth, CAS, Beijing, China
PEEX HQ in HelsinkiHeads Prof. M. Kulmala Univ. Helsinki , Prof. S. Zilitinkevich FMIExecutive Officer, Dr. Hanna Lappalainen, Univ. Helsinki FMIScience Director, Prof. Tuukka Petäjä, Univ. Helsinki Project Officer, Dr. Joni Kujansuu, Univ. Helsinki Education Officers, Dr. Taina Ruuskanen, Dr. Antti Lauri, Univ. Helsinki
PEEX Moscow Office, PEEX Beijing Office
PEEX Working Groups:‐ in situ observations / satellites / modelling / socio‐economics / knowledge transfer
PEEX Contributing Institutes
PEEX Organization
Global warming
Biodiversity loss
Air quality
Fresh water
Epidemic diseases
Deforestification
Climatechange
Food supplies
Volcanoes
Earthquakes
Energy
Chemicalisation
Ocean acidification
PEEX Background – GRAND CHALLENGES
Solving any of the grand challenges requires a multidisciplinary– multiscale approach
VERY IMPORTANT AREA Crucial for global climate
Arctic, borealAlbedo changeCarbon sink or sourceMethaneAerosol production
via BVOCsAir qualityEnergy productionPermafrostArctic OceanSocioetal issues
Technology
3.GLOBALIZATION
4. NATURAL RESOURCES
1.DEMOGRAPHY
2.CLIMATE CHANGE
NORTHERN PAN-EURASIAN REGION =
PEEX - GRAND CHALLENGES IN THE NORTHERN CONTEXT
PEEX Large scale research schematics
ref. NCoE‐CRAICC – project: Cryosphere‐Atmosphere interactions in a changing Artic climate
to understand the Earth system and the influence of environmental and societal changes in Pan‐Eurasian environments
to determine the processes relevant to the climate change
PEEX built on multiscale approach designed as a research chain that aims to advance our
understanding of climate and air quality through a series of connected activities beginning at the molecular scale and extending to the regional and global scale (ref. Kulmala et al. 2011).
PEEX Science Plan (SP)
White paper
Background document for research funding applications, new projects research infrastructure fundraising education activities and projects
Identifying the PEEX initiative at the large scale‐ large scale research questions‐ key topics relevant to Arctic boreal regions
PEEX Science Plan – F‐1 Research Agenda 15 LARGE SCALE RESEARCH QUESTIONS (RQ)
5 KEY AREAS ‐ 15 KEY TOPICS ‐ 15 RQs
1. LAND SYSTEM
2. ATMOSPHERIC SYSTEM
3. AQUATIC SYSTEM
4. ANTHROPOGENIC ACTIVITIES AND SOCIETY
5. FEEDBACKS, INTERACTIONS AND BIOGEOCEMICAL CYCLES
For exampleResearch Agenda –Atmospheric system
Q‐4 What are the critical atmospheric physics and chemistry processes with large‐scale climate implications?Key Topic: Atmospheric Composition and Chemistry
Q‐5 What are the key feedbacks between air quality and climate at northern high latitudes and in China?Key Topic: Urban air quality, megacities and changing PBL
Q‐6 How will atmospheric dynamics (synoptic scale weather; boundary layer) change in Arctic – boreal regions?Key Topic: Weather and atmospheric circulation
RESEARCH QUESTION – KEY TOPIC
Research Agenda – ANTHROPOGENIC ACTIVITIES
Q‐10 How will human actions such as land‐use changes, energy production, use of natural resources, efficiency and use of renewable energy sources) influence further environmental changes in the region? Key Topic: Anthropogenic impact
Q‐11 How do the changes in physical, chemical and biological state of the different ecosystems, inland water and coastal areas affect the economies and societies in the region and vice versa?Key Topic: Environmental impact
Q‐12 In which ways are socio‐economic areas vulnerable to climate change, how can their vulnerability be reduced and their adaptive capacities improved and what responses can be identified to mitigate and adapt to the climatic changes?Key Topic: Natural hazards
RESEARCH QUESTION – KEY TOPIC
Land & aquatic ecosystemsBoreal forest - taigaSub-arctic- alpine tundraPeatlandArctic and boreal lakesLarge river systems
The Arctic Ocean- Arctic marine regions Permafrost regions Urban environments
Characteristics of PEEX region
AIM to fill the atmospheric in‐situ observational gap in in the Siberian and Far East regions and
start the process towards standardized or comparable data procedures.
Twinned: Operations supported by SAG membersRecruited: Joined GAW through efforts of SAG members
PEEX ?
Ref. Alexander Baklanov, WMO, EGU 2014 PEEX sessio
IMPLEMENTATION ‐ PEEX RI – in situ observations
GAW In‐situ Aerosol Network
Concept of hierarchial PEEX stations networks Supersites every 2000 km across PEEX domainSuper site: Stations for measuring ecosystem atmosphere relations
IMPLEMENTATION ‐ PEEX RI – in situ observations
First PEEX labeled research projects Nordic: CRAICC‐PEEX 6 Workshops 2014‐2015 – granted
“Joint CRAICC – PEEX research & education activity: SLCF, Arctic Seas & shipping, anthropogenic emissionsin the Arctic, ABL climatology in the Arctic ”
“Future Arctic: scenarios & assessment” proposal Europe: JPI‐Climate: “GREENSCAPE”‐ submitted
“Greenhouse gases and short‐lived Climate Forcers in the Eurasian Arctic and Boreal Environment”
Europe: Horizon 2020: “FACTS” –submitted “Feedback Assessments of Climate Trajectories in a
Social context” Europe: Horizon 2020: “PEEX ITN” – to be submitted in 2014
State of the art research program & Doctoral education program
Russia: Basic Research: 2 proposals (ABL, satellites) – to be submitted soon
PEEX – FIRST RESEARCH ACTIVITIES
“Future Arctic: scenarios & assessment” proposalConsortium University of Helsinki University of Turku Finnish Meteorological Institute University of Stockholm Lund Universitet University of Århus South Danish University Danish Meteorological Institute University of Oslo Nansen Centre NILU University of Iceland
PEEX – FIRST RESEARCH ACTIVITIESNordic Centers of Excellence (NCoEs): 1. DEFROST “Interactions between climate
change and the cryosphere”2. CRAICC “Cryosphere‐atmosphere
interactions in a changing Arctic climate”3. NORD‐STAR NORD‐STAR “Strategic
adaptation research to help the Nordic countries address the twin challenge of a warmer climate and the consequences of climate policy”
4. TUNDRA “Interaction between the ecological phenomenon of top‐down impacts in food webs and climate–vegetation interactions and integrate this perspective with the man‐managed reindeer husbandry”
5. eSTICC “eScience tools for investigating Climate Change in Northern High Latitudes”
Baseline: RCP and Shared Socio‐Economic Pathways (SSP) have a global focus and do not explicitly address development trends in the Arctic and boreal region.
PEEX will extend and complement the global analyses to the Arctic region
scenarios for 2020, 2050, 2080
identify user needs for climate information on micro‐ (household, company) and meso‐ (municipality, economical region) levels.
explored needs will be used to develop narratives
PEEX Scenarios ‐
A ) Climate simulations for the 21st century (IPCC WG1 CMIP5): for different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) changes in climate parameters (temperature, precipitation, sea ice
extent, soil moisture, etc.) in a globally scale concentrate on RCP6.0, considered neither a particularly optimistic
nor pessimistic scenario; has received little attention.
Downscaling studies provide more detail for specific regions: regional climate
modelling and statistical‐dynamical downscaling. Upscaling studies provide global view on the dynamical processes controlling local
climate phenomena in change: tele‐connection analysis and extreme weather projections.
PEEX Scenarios –Climate simulations preliminary ideas
NARRATIVES TAKE INTO ACCOUNT E.G.: climate, environmental and societal change already taken place economical constraints caused by remote logistics and sparse
population in the Arctic region prospected availability of natural resources (oil, gas, minerals) in
the Arctic becoming more easily accessible as the Arctic cryosphere shrinks
opening of the shipping routes with the decreasing sea ice cover increasing pollution affecting health effects shifting of vegetation zones of the boreal regions leading to
intensified forestry , and the emerging competition with current economic actors
GENERAL AIM: “narratives should reflect plausible pathways of collective human attitudes and behaviour, both as individuals, as well as by the actions of multinational bodies (UN, EU, Arctic Council etc.), national governments and corporations”
PEEX Scenarios ‐ NARRATIVES preliminary ideas
PEEX Scenarios
SUMMARY PEEX work towards Arctic scenarios is in process
NORDFORSK ‐ phase‐1 proposal submission 6.June
PEEX Arctic scenarios ‐approach based on NordicCenters of Excellence
collaboration with IIASA Arctic Futures Project would beimportant
TOWARDS INTEGRATED NEW KNOWLEDGE ON ARCTIC FUTURE