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Overview of the Global Oilseed Markets
Annual MeetingNational Cottonseed Products Association
Santa Fe, New MexicoMay 4, 2009
John Baize
U.S. and Rest of WorldGross National Product
1990 - 2008
Strong growth in U.S., but faster growth in rest of world
World economy grew by 65% in 18 years
China and IndiaGross Domestic Products
World Economy Now In Recession
We now have had 3 quarters of low or negative economic growth – down 6.1% in 1sr quarter 2009
Rapidly rising unemployment in U.S. and around the world Major reduction in bank liquidity Low inflation or deflation Consumer have sharply reduced consumption, boosted savings. Restaurants particularly are seeing reduction in sales Meat consumption is down in US and many other countries.
Global Pork and Chicken Meat Production1990 - 2009
Global Soymeal Consumption2000/01 – 2007/08 and Forecast for 2008/09
Global Soyoil Consumption2000/01 – 2007/08 and Forecast for 2008/09
Soybeans, Corn, Wheat, Cotton, and RicePercentage Change in Global Consumption
1990/91 – 2007/08 and Forecast for 2008/09
U.S. Soybean Oil ConsumptionOctober – March
2007/08 and 2008/09 Marketing Years
U.S. Cottonseed Oil ConsumptionOctober – March
2007/08 and 2008/09 Marketing Years
U.S. Soymeal ConsumptionOctober – February
2007/908 and 2008/09
Global Soybean Production and Consumption2000/01 – 2007/08 and Forecast for 2008/09
Soybean ProductionU.S., Argentina, Brazil and China
Argentina’s Soybean Production2001 - 2009
Annual Growth in Global Soybean Consumption2000/01 – 2007/08 and Forecast for 2008/09
U.S. Harvested Area of Corn, Soybeans, and WheatA Big Battle For Land
U.S. Cotton Consumption and Exports2000/01 – 2007/08 and Forecast for 2008/09
U.S. Cotton Planted AreaActual 2000 – 2008 and Forecast for 2009
MississippiPlanted Area of Corn, Cotton, and Soybeans
2000 - 2009
Global Cotton Production and Consumption2000/01 – 2007/08 and USDA Forecast for 2008/09
USA, Brazil, China, and IndiaAverage Cotton Yields
Bt Cotton May Be Helping Other Countries More Than U.S.
Global Cotton Ending Stocks 2000/01 – 2007/08 and USDA Forecast for 2008/09
U.S. Cotton Harvested Area and Cottonseed Production
2000 – 2008
U.S. Cottonseed UsageCrush and Use for Feed and Waste
2000/01 – 2007/08 and USDA Forecast for 2008/09
Cottonseed OilU.S. and Global Consumption
2000/01 – 2007/08 and USDA Forecast for 2008/09
U.S. Palm Oil Consumption2000/01 – 2007/08 and USDA Forecast for 2008/09
World’s Largest Soybean Importers2007/08 Marketing Year
Global Soybean Ending Stocks2000/01 – 2007/08 and Forecast for 2008/09
Ending Stocks of SoybeansU.S., Argentina, and Brazil
2000/01 – 2007/08 and Forecast for 2008/09
U.S. SoybeansEnding Stocks to Use Ratio
Chinese Soymeal Consumption
China’s Pork and Chicken Meat Production1990 - 2009
China’s Soybean Imports from All Origins2000/01 – 2006/07 and Forecast for 2007/08
U.S. Soybean Exports2000/01 –2007/08 and Forecast for 2008/09
U.S. Soybean Exports to China and Rest of World2003/04 – 2007/08
2008/09 as of April 16
U.S. Soybean Crush2000/01 – 2006/07 and Forecast for 2007/08 and 2008/09
U.S. Soybean Meal Consumption2000/01 – 2006/07 and Forecast for 2007/08 and 2008/09
U.S. Corn Use for Ethanol Production1997/98 – 2007/08 and Forecast for 2008/09
About 1/3 of corn re-enters the feed market as distillers grains (25% protein)
U.S. Soyoil Consumption2000/01 – 2007/08 and Forecast for 2008/09
Impact of Changing Crude Oil PriceOn Energy Value of Agricultural Commodities
Crude Oil ($/Barrel)
$60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160
Corn ($/MT) $158.98 $211.98 $264.97 $317.96 $370.96 $423.95
Wheat ($/MT) $174.60 $232.81 $291.01 $349.21 $407.41 $465.61
Soybeans ($/MT) $165.09 $220.13 $275.16 $330.19 $385.22 $440.25
Vegoil ($/MT) $395.31 $527.08 $658.85 $790.62 $922.38 $1,054.15
Price of Crude Oil and Soybean OilJanuary 2007 – March 2009
Global Vegetable OilsStocks to Use Ratio
Past and Projected Future Demand for SoybeansWorld Likely to Need Additional 70 MMT of Soybeans in 2018
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