Oilseed report

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Oilseed Report

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The next issue of Stratégie grains Oilseed Report will be available on 30 May 2012

First year - No 1 / 26 April 2012 - English version

Rapeseed 2011/12 2012/13July-June as of

27/03/12as of

26/04/12carry-in stock 1.3 1.2 1.3

production 19.1 19.1 17.6imports 3.0 3.1 3.1

domestic use 22.1 22.4 21.0exports 0.1 0.0 0.0

carry-out stock 1.3 1.0 1.0surplus / required stock -0.4 -0.7 -0.6

Sunflower 2011/12 2012/13August-July as of

27/03/12as of

26/04/12carry-in stock 0.7 0.8 0.7



carry-out stock 0.7 0.9 0.7surplus / required stock 0.1 0.3 0.1

Soybean 2011/12 2012/13October-September as of

27/03/12as of

26/04/12carry-in stock 1.4 1.2 1.3



carry-out stock 1.3 0.8 0.8surplus / required stock 0.4 -0.2 -0.2

• EU rapeseed production revised down to 17.6 Mt following winter losses

• Very tight EU rapeseed market for remainder of 2011/12 – 2012/13: rapeseed stocks set to

fall despite 1 Mt decline in crush volume; world export availability expected in decline

• Sunseed production and crush volumes expected very high in EU in 2011/12 and 2012/13 –

balanced situation for both crop years

• Global soybean stock forecast to decline in 2011/12 – further reduction expected for

2012/13 despite sharp growth in production

• Demand for meals in 2011/12 expected down in EU – no growth forecast for 2012/13

• EU vegetable oil supply revised down sharply for 2012/13: EU biodiesel production revised

down to 10.4 Mt

Production 3Oilseed rape 3Sunflower and soybean 5

EuroPEan union raPEsEEd balancEs 6Supply and internal demand 6Prices comparison dated 20/04/2012 9Intra-EU rapeseed trade 9World rapeseed market 11Analysis of ending stocks and conclusion 13

EuroPEan union sunsEEd balancEs 15Supply and internal demand 15Intra-EU Sunseed trade 17World sunseed market 19Analysis of ending stocks and conclusion 21

EuroPEan union soybEan balancEs 22Supply and internal demand 22intra-EU trade 24World soybean market 26Analysis of ending stock and conclusion 29

Eu vEgEtablE oil markEt 30Prices comparison 30Rape oil supply and demand in the EU 30Sun oil supply and demand in the EU 33Soy oil supply and demand in the EU 34Palm oil supply and demand in the EU 35Vegetable Oils - global supply and demand 35EU vegetable oil market: conclusion 38

Eu mEal markEt 39Supply of oilmeals in the EU 39EU industrial feed production 40Consumption in animal feeds in 2011/12 41Consumption in animal feeds 2012/13 43World soymeal market and conclusion 45

2

S t r a t é g i e g r a i n S — O i l S e e d r e p O r t 1 — 2 6 a p r i l 2 0 1 2

graPhs and tablEs

graPhs

tablEs

Table 1.1: Oilseed rape planted areas, yields and production 3Table 1.2: Sunflower planted areas, yields and production 5Table 1.3: Changes to main arable crop areas (EU27) 4Table 2.1: breakdown of EU rapeseed imports by country of origin 6Table 2.2: rapeseed balance sheet July-June 2012/13 and 2011/12 (kt) 7Table 2.3: rapeseed prices in main EU countries dated 20/04/2012 9Table 2.4: intra-EU rapeseed trade 2012/13 and 2011/12 (kt) 10Table 2.5 estimated rapeseed balance sheets for Ukraine, Canada and Australia (July/June) 11Table 2.6: world rapeseed/canola balance sheet (July/June) 12Table 2.7: world import requirements and export forecasts (Mt) — July-June 13Table 3.1: EU sunseed imports by origin (kt) 15Table 3.2: EU sunseed balance sheet, August-July 2012/13 and 2011/12 (kt) 16Table 3.3: intra-EU sunseed trade 2012/13 and 2011/12 (kt) 18Table 3.4: world sunseed supply and demand balance sheet – August-July (Mt) 19Table 3.5: sunseed balance sheets for Ukraine, Russia, Moldova, and Argentina – August-July 19Table 3.6: estimated sun seed import requirements and export volumes (Mt) – August–July crop year 20Table 4.1: EU soybean imports by country of origin (kt) 22Table 4.2: EU27 soybean balance sheet October-September 2012/13 and 2011/12 (kt) 23Table 4.3: intra-EU soybean trade 2012/13 and 2011/12 October-September (kt) 25Table 4.4: world soybean balance sheet October-September (Mt) 26Table 4.5: FOB prices for main soybean origins dated 19/04/2012 26Table 4.6: soybean balance sheets for main exporting and importing countries - October-September (Mt) 27Table 4.7: soybean balance sheets for Ukraine and Russia - October-September (Mt) 27Table 4.8: monthly soybean imports for China (Mt) 27Table 5.1: vegetable oil prices in Rotterdam on 20/04/12 ($/t) 30Table 5.2: supply and demand balance sheet of rape oil in 2010/11, 2011/12 and 2012/13 (Mt) –July/June 31Table 5.3: supply and demand balance sheet for biodiesel in 2010/11, 2011/12 and 2012/13 (Mt) –July/june 31Table 5.4: supply and demand balance sheet for sun oil in 2010/11, 2011/12 and 2012/13 (Mt) –August/July 33Table 5.5: supply and demand balance sheet for soy oil in 2010/11, 2011/12 and 2012/13 (Mt) –October/September 34Table 5.6: supply and demand balance sheet for palm oil in 2010/11, 2011/12 and 2012/13 (Mt) –July/June 35Table 5.7: world supply and demand for the main oils (Mt) 36Table 5.8: FOB prices of the main oils ($/t) 37Table 5.9: EU supply and demand balance sheet for the 4 main vegetable oils * 2010/11, 2011/12 and 2012/13 (Mt) 38Table 6.1: soymeal imports in the EU27 (Mt) 39Table 6.2: prices of the main soymeal and sunmeal origins dated 23/04/12 ($/t) 39Table 6.3: changes in industrial animal feed production in EU countries xxx voir période xxx 40Table 6.4: demand for soymeal, rapemeal and sunmeal in industrial animal feeds* and on-farm feeds* (October-September) 42Table 6.5 EU soymeal balance sheets – October-September 2012/13 and 2011/12 (kt) 43Table 6.6: EU rapemeal balance sheets – July-June 2012/13 and 2011/12 (kt) 44Table 6.7: EU sunmeal balance sheets – August-July 2012/13 and 2011/12 (kt) 44Table 6.8: World soymeal balance sheets – October-September 2010/11, 2011/12, 2012/13 (Mt) 45

Graphic 1.1: variation in water balance compared with the norm for period: September 1 2011 through April 19 2012 4Graphic 1.2: Rapeseed production in the EU27 (Mt) 4Graphic 1.3: Sunseed production in the EU27 (Mt) 5Graphic 1.4: Soybean production in the EU27 (Mt) 5Graphic 2.1: rapeseed crush demand in the EU (Mt) 6Graphic 2.2: rapeseed crush margins in Hamburg (€/t seeds) 8Graphic 2.3: comparison between rapeseed and sunseed crush margins in France (€/t seeds) 8Graphic 2.4: Euronext prices (€/t) 9Graphic 2.5: world rapeseed prices (US $/t) 11Graphic 3.1: human/industrial demand for sunseed in the EU27 (Mt) 15Graphic 3.2 : Sunseed crush margin in France (€/t) 17Graphic 3.3: world sun seed prices (FOB in US $/t) 19Graphic 4.1: demand for soybean for crush usage in the EU27 (Mt) 22Graphic 4.2: world demand for soybean (kt) 27Graphic 4.3: world soybean prices (CBOT, $/bushel) 28Graphic 4.4: soybean/maize price ratio in the USA for November/December (CBOT) 28Graphic 5.1: biodiesel and vegetable oil prices (€/t) 31Graphic 6.1: changes in cattle numbers in the EU 41Graphic 6.2: changes in milk collection in the EU compared with quota 41Graphic 6.3: changes in pig numbers in the EU 41Graphic 6.4: soy/wheat price ratio in France 42Graphic 6.5: prices of soymeal, rapemeal and sunmeal in the EU (€/t) 43

3


Eu Production of raPEsEEd & sunsEEd

Area (kha) Yield (t/ha) Production (kt)2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 ∆ / prev.

monthGermany 1471 1461 1328 1280 4.28 3.90 2.94 3.38 6301 5697 3904 4324 -466

Belgium-Lux 14 16 17 17 4.17 3.83 4.29 4.04 60 61 73 69 0Denmark 163 167 151 101 3.91 3.48 3.36 3.63 638 580 508 366 0

Spain 22 21 31 32 1.60 1.82 1.98 1.89 35 38 62 61 0France 1481 1465 1556 1528 3.77 3.29 3.45 3.19 5589 4815 5368 4874 -571Greece 4 8 7 7 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 6 12 10 10 0Ireland 6 8 9 10 3.76 3.51 4.10 4.02 24 28 35 38 0

Italy 25 20 19 16 2.04 2.47 2.34 2.45 50 50 44 39 0The Netherl. 3 3 2 2 4.54 4.38 3.44 4.05 12 12 7 8 0

Portugal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0United Kingd. 570 642 705 761 3.35 3.47 3.91 3.52 1912 2230 2756 2682 121

Austria 57 54 53 53 3.01 3.17 3.35 3.29 171 171 179 173 0Finland 81 158 91 79 1.73 1.13 1.26 1.38 140 179 115 109 -19Sweden 98 109 99 106 3.04 2.57 2.70 2.65 298 280 266 281 0Poland 810 946 827 713 3.08 2.36 2.23 2.38 2497 2229 1847 1700 -404

Hungary 261 259 233 171 2.41 2.05 2.26 2.20 630 531 527 377 -42Czech Republic 355 369 373 386 3.18 2.83 2.80 2.92 1128 1042 1046 1128 -59

Slovakia 166 164 145 96 2.32 1.97 2.43 2.28 387 322 353 218 -11Estonia 82 98 89 88 1.66 1.33 1.61 1.70 136 131 144 149 -26

Latvia 93 111 121 119 2.19 2.05 1.81 2.07 205 226 219 246 0Lithuania 192 252 253 241 2.17 1.65 1.81 1.82 416 417 458 439 0

Slovenia 4 6 5 6 2.23 2.68 2.92 2.58 10 16 14 15 0Cyprus/Malta 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Romania 442 506 384 54 1.59 1.95 1.73 1.51 702 986 664 81 -5Bulgaria 108 186 219 95 2.17 2.93 2.37 2.17 235 545 519 207 -55EU 27 6509 7027 6717 5959 3.32 2.93 2.85 2.95 21580 20597 19119 17593 -1539

• Winterkill and damage on oilseed rape revised up sharply in Germany, Poland and France since last

month

• Rapeseed yield revised down in main producer countries due to frost and drought in the southeastern

EU countries

• Rapeseed production revised down sharply (-1.5 Mt) to 17.6 Mt in 2012

• Large fall in sunflower area in Spain due to drought, but increase in several countries due to

replanting of lost winter crop fields

• Sunseed production still expected at 8.1 Mt in 2012

• Soybean production expected down slightly compared with 2011/12

oilsEEd raPE Rapeseed production now expected sharply down on previous years

Crop year 2012/13At the start of the crop year, good conditions at planting time and attractive margins in France, UK and Poland generated an increase in oilseed rape plantings. Farmers in the central EU countries also planted more

oilseed rape. Meanwhile in the north EU countries, rains at planting time in Germany and Denmark caused a decline in oilseed rape acreage. In the southeast EU, a severe autumn drought restricted oilseed rape plantings. This drought continued through the start of the winter

in Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary and prevented plant emergence in some fields.A mild autumn in Europe in most countries allowed the rapeseed plants to develop more quickly than normal and raised the possibility that the plants would exit the rosette stage too early. During this stage of the growth cycle, the

Table 1.1: Oilseed rape planted areas, yields and production

Production

4



20,6 19,1 17,6

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

areas (kha) commercial crop years2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Total cereals 58 230 55 360 55 570 55 780Total oilseeds (included crops grown on set-aside) 11 210 11 670 11 920 11 150Total protein crops 1 190 1 510 1 390 1 250Silage 5 310 5 530 5 730 6 050EU set-aside & fallow land (non food crops exclud.) 6 050 6 670 5 940 6 190

of which EU 15 set-aside 4 060 4 330 3 990 4 240Sugar beet 1 600 1 580 1 630 1 650Total area cultivated + set-aside * 83 590 82 320 82 180 82 070

plants have a high degree of resistance to the cold, but once grown out of it, they are more vulnerable. The risk of frost damage and winterkill was therefore higher than normal even as soon as winter started.Freezing conditions finally arrived at the end of January. With little or no snow in much of east and central Europe, there was significant damage to the crops. In Bulgaria and Romania, the depth of the snow blanket varied sharply from place to place because of extremely high winds. The oilseed rape plants in these countries were already in a vulnerable condition because of the dry conditions at planting time and hence were less able to resist the cold.With the resumption of plant growth in most rapeseed-growing countries, since March we have gradually got more accurate picture of winterkill/crop damage: Romania and Bulgaria – according to

current estimates, respectively 80 % and 60 % of winter rapeseed acreage has been impacted since this year’s crop was planted;

Slovakia - 40 % of winter rapeseed plantings will no longer be harvested, either due to the autumn drought of the freezing spell;

Poland – damage is estimated at 25 % of acreage (compared with 9 % in 2011/12);

Czech Republic - damage is estimated at 8 % of acreage;

Austria - 6 % of acreage will be replanted; Germany – winterkill will force farmers to

replant 5 % of winter rapeseed acreage; France – around 3 % of acreage will need

to be replanted. Damage is mostly centred on Lorraine (20 % to be replanted),

Bourgogne and Champagne-Ardenne (10 % replanted in each).

The weather has been extremely dry across Europe since the end of winter and through

March. There was some rainfall in the first half of April, but most EU countries are currently suffering from a low to record-low water balance (see graphic 1.1). Rainfall levels in the coming weeks will need to be closely monitored. In central Europe, the drought has coincided with very sharp temperature swings between sub-zero temperatures at night and positive temperatures during the day. This phenomenon ended in the week of April 16-20 as temperatures began to increase. This kind of weather scenario during the spring (rains following severe drought) could cause an increased risk of disease, notably rapeseed blackspot disease (Alternaria). This situation will need to be closely monitored.With the oilseed rape plants currently flowering in most EU producer countries, weather conditions are at present not ideal for pollination

because temperatures are too low. However, given the rapeseed plants’ good capacity for recovery, it is too early to further decrease our yield forecasts as a result of this. We currently estimate oilseed rape area in the EU at 6 Mha, down 0.8 Mha from the level of 2011/12 (this will be the lowest acreage since 2006). We currently expect EU rapeseed yield at 2.95 t/ha (2.85 t/ha in 2011/12). Yield in many countries has been reduced to take into account the fields which were impacted by the freezing conditions but will not be replanted and for which yield potential is therefore reduced. We currently expect rapeseed production in the EU at 17.6 Mt (19.1 Mt in 2011/12). This will be the lowest level since the harvest of 2006. If the weather continues to be very unfavourable for oilseed rape development, yield could fall to 2.81 t/ha, as in 2007/08, with EU production at 16.7 Mt. By contrast, if yields were reasonable (with good conditions from now until harvest time), it might still be possible to obtain a yield of 3 t/ha and a harvest of 18 Mt.

N.B: Subscribers to the Oilseed crop module on our website www. strategie-grains.com may consult our full area, yield and production estimates with historical database and forecasts by country and crop year.

Graphic 1.2: Rapeseed production in the EU27 (Mt)

Graphic 1.1: variation in water balance compared with the norm for period:

September 1 2011 through April 19 2012

Source: MARS JRC

Table 1.3: Changes to main arable crop areas (EU27)

5



6,9 8,3 8,1

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

1,2 1,3 1,2

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Area (kha) Yield (t/ha) Production (kt)2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 ∆ / prev.

monthGermany 24 25 27 29 2.41 1.89 1.99 2.17 57 47 53 64 12

Spain 851 698 858 682 1.02 1.22 1.21 1.18 870 850 1035 804 -177France 725 695 741 756 2.37 2.36 2.54 2.47 1720 1641 1885 1867 44Greece 24 64 66 69 1.20 2.53 1.69 1.62 28 161 112 112 0

Italy 124 101 118 114 2.26 2.12 2.32 2.31 280 213 274 262 9Portugal 21 14 15 15 0.52 0.54 1.02 0.69 11 8 15 10 0

United Kingd. 1 1 1 1 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2 2 2 2 0Austria 26 25 26 26 2.74 2.62 2.83 2.72 71 67 74 71 0Poland 2 2 2 2 1.78 1.52 1.78 1.78 4 3 4 4 0

Hungary 535 502 574 585 2.35 1.93 2.38 2.40 1256 970 1368 1406 0Czech Republic 26 27 29 51 2.38 2.11 2.48 2.39 61 57 71 123 55

Slovakia 83 83 90 107 2.26 1.81 2.45 2.38 187 150 219 255 32Romania 766 791 985 1132 1.43 1.60 1.82 1.57 1098 1263 1792 1779 23Bulgaria 662 648 682 709 1.89 2.19 2.03 1.95 1250 1419 1385 1381 0

oth. Countries 0 0 0 0 1.45 2.34 2.61 1.84 0 0 1 1 0EU 27 3869 3676 4213 4281 1.78 1.86 1.97 1.90 6896 6851 8290 8140 -2

Graphic 1.3: Sunseed production in the EU27 (Mt)

Graphic 1.4: Soybean production in the EU27 (Mt)

sunflowEr and soybEan

Sunflower area expected to increase again in 2012/13

Crop year 2012/13Like the other spring crops, sunflower area is expected to increase because farmers will replant winter crop fields lost or destroyed because of drought or cold with spring crops. We currently estimate that sunflower area will increase from 4.2 Mha in 2011 to 4.3 Mha in 2012, which will be the highest level since the harvest of 2003. The countries where sunflower area will increase most sharply are Romania (+150 kha), Bulgaria (+30 kha), Slovakia (+ 30 kha), Czech Republic (+20 kha) and France (+15 kha). In Spain, the current drought is forcing farmers to leave fields unplanted instead of sowing sunflower, because expected sunseed yields are too low to definitively guarantee a profit. Sunflower area is therefore expected sharply down on last year (-170 kha) in Spain, at 680 kha.

We currently expect sunseed yield in the EU at 1.9 t/ha (1.97 t/ha in 2011/12), with production at 8.1 Mt (8.3 Mt in 2011/12). The increase in acreage will not be sufficient to offset the relative fall in yield compared with last year’s excellent results. Sunflower plantings are currently taking

place in France and Spain and in the southeast EU countries. We estimate soybean area in the EU at 430 kha (down 20 kha compared with 2011/12). With yield estimated at 2.8 t/ha (2.92 t/ha in 2011/12), the harvest is expected at 1.2 Mt in 2012/13 (1.3 Mt in 2011/12).

Table 1.2: Sunflower planted areas, yields and production

6


EuroPEan union raPEsEEd balancEs


kt 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13Ukraine 1371 1209 960 850

Other CIS 328 69 125 300Australia 314 1035 1625 1525Canada 95 216 275 400Others 39 46 51 40

Total 2147 2575 3036 3115

• EU rapeseed production expected sharply down in 2012 to 17.6 Mt

• Crush volume expected down sharply in 2012/13 –rapeseed imports limited by lack of global availability

• EU rapeseed stock expected down to 0.9 Mt and global stock to 4.9 Mt at end-2012/13

• Extremely tight outlook for new crop year

suPPly and intErnal dEmand

2011/12: crush volume in EU expected at 21.5 Mt – 2012/13: production and crush activity expected down sharply

Crop year 2011/12

ProductionEU rapeseed production in 2011 remains estimated at 19.1 Mt. It has increased very slightly (+20 kt) since last month due to an in-crease for production in France. Most of the reduction compared with 2010 (-1.5 Mt, see Production) corresponds to small-er harvests in Germany (-1.8 Mt), Poland (-380 kt), north EU countries (-150 kt in total) and Romania (-320 kt); these falls are partly offset by increases in France and Britain (+550 kt and +530 kt respectively).

N.B: Subscribers to the “EU crop – Oilseed” module on our website www.strategie-grains.com may consult our full area, yield and production estimates with historical database and forecasts by country and crop year.

Imports Our forecasts now include the latest available customs statistics for crop year 2011/12 (Feb-ruary 2012 for EU trade with third countries). Given recorded imports shown in these sta-tistics and current price spreads between EU rapeseed and other main export origins, EU rapeseed imports from third countries are now forecast at 3 Mt in 2011/12, up 0.46 Mt

compared with 2010/11. Rapeseed imports from Ukraine are currently forecast at 960 kt (-50 kt compared with last month and -250 kt compared with 2010/11).Rapeseed imports from other Black Sea coun-tries (Russia, Moldova and Kazakhstan) are expected up at 125 kt (+35 kt compared with last month; +55 kt compared with 2010/11). We forecast a sharp rise in imports from Aus-tralia to 1.63 Mt (+0.1 Mt compared with last month; +0.6 Mt compared with last year). Rapeseed exports recorded from Australia are high (around 300 kt per month since De-cember), and should arrive in 2011/12. This estimate has an increase potential if shipments arrive more quickly than expected. Canadian rapeseed exports to the EU are also forecast up in 2011/12, although on a smaller scale, to 275 kt (no change since last month, +60 kt vs. 2010/11). Canadian rapeseed can-not be used in all EU countries because it com-prises GM content, which limits its access to the EU market. Portugal and France are the main importers of Canadian rapeseed: Por-tugal had imported 150 kt as of February 29 2012 and we expect that the EU will import an additional 95 kt from Canada by the end of the crop year. However, Canadian statistics do not show any exports to the EU since December; our estimate therefore has a decrease potential in the event that exports do not pick up. Since last month, we have increased our fore-cast for EU rapeseed imports (+90 kt), notably for Germany to 350 kt and France to 370 kt (+30 kt each); there are also smaller increases (+10/15 kt) for the Netherlands (to 1 Mt) and Poland (to 280 kt).

Demand for industrial usageDue to limited supply and low rape oil pro-duction margins (see graphic 2.2), rapeseed

crush volume in the EU is estimated down to 21.5 Mt in 2011/12 (-1 Mt compared with 2010/11). Since the start of crop year 2011/12, the crush margin average in Hamburg is slight-ly above 20 €/t, which is also the case on the last quarter of the campaign. There are thus around 10 €/t below last year, and about 20 €/t below 2009/10. Likewise, rapeseed crush margins in Rouen are currently low, and have on occasion dropped as low as 30 €/t (on crushed seed) and are at around 40 €/t averaged for the entire crop year, which is 10 €/t below the averaged value in 2010/11. The current margin is around 30 €/t spot/near-term. We have increased estimated crush volume in the EU by 50 kt since last month; crush is revised up 180 kt in the Netherlands (to 1.16 Mt) but this is partly offset by reductions in Germany (-100 kt to 7.3 Mt) and Spain (-20 kt to 90 kt). These adjustments are made to reflect the latest statistics for crush demand, oil production and/or imports. Industrial rapeseed usage is expected down in most other EU countries compared with 2010/11, most notably France (-465 kt to 4 Mt), Germany (-325 kt to 7.3 Mt) and Poland (-210 kt to 2 Mt). However, it is expected up in the Netherlands (+150 kt) and the United-

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

22.5

21.5

20.5

Graphic 2.1: rapeseed crush demand in the EU (Mt)Table 2.1: breakdown of EU rapeseed

imports by country of origin

Source: Stratégie grains (based on data from Eurostats)

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Ger. 310 3904 3087 3534 348 8096 232 8 7311 227 10 217 0 7777 319 -240 562Bel/L 122 73 891 620 1706 384 0 1230 15 0 15 0 1629 77 -20 95Den. 9 508 192 70 779 169 0 509 85 0 85 0 762 16 -20 39Spn. 4 62 51 0 116 4 0 90 0 0 94 22 20 7Fra. 220 5368 5302 352 370 6310 1930 16 4000 97 89 8 60 6103 206 -100 308

Gre. 3 10 2 9 25 0 24 0 0 24 0 0 2Irl. 11 35 5 3 55 25 25 0 0 50 4 0 2Ita. 7 44 31 6 88 11 0 75 0 0 86 2 0 6

Neth. 214 7 634 995 1850 451 0 1156 23 0 1631 219 130 89Por. 14 0 7 237 258 1 243 0 0 244 14 -10 19

U.K. 121 2756 62 2 2941 660 0 2080 58 0 58 0 2798 143 -20 160Aust. 34 179 179 182 12 408 69 0 305 5 0 5 0 379 28 10 23

Fin. 21 115 116 18 270 0 0 250 5 0 5 0 255 15 0 19Swed. 27 266 41 2 336 13 0 311 5 0 5 0 329 7 -20 24

Pol. 59 1847 209 280 2396 275 0 1987 27 0 27 0 2290 106 -50 153Hun. 8 527 371 14 920 698 1 205 0 7 910 10 -10 16Cz.R. 53 1046 104 2 1204 270 0 897 0 0 1167 37 -30 69

Slk. 17 353 208 12 591 404 165 0 0 569 22 10 13Est. 5 144 1 1 150 81 60 0 0 0 0 141 9 0 5Lat. 17 219 51 27 314 204 100 7 0 7 0 311 3 -10 8Lit. 16 458 46 4 524 263 252 0 0 515 9 -10 19Sln. 15 14 3 1 33 22 6 0 0 0 0 28 5 0 0

Cyp. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Mal. 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0

Rom. 20 664 102 0 787 555 30 195 0 0 780 7 -10 15Bul. 19 519 3 0 541 476 44 19 0 0 539 2 0 1

EU 27 1346 19119 7197 3036 30698 7197 100 21495 554 67 29413 1284 -380 1653

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Ger. 319 4324 3508 2786 621 8050 406 6 7000 227 10 217 0 7639 411 -130 538Bel/L 77 69 904 525 1576 392 1100 10 0 10 0 1502 74 -10 85Den. 16 366 324 37 743 154 0 501 60 0 60 0 714 29 -10 39Spn. 22 61 31 0 114 5 0 90 0 0 95 20 10 7

Fra-new. 206 4874 4808 210 548 5839 1629 11 3984 47 60 5731 108 -200 306Gre. 0 10 2 10 23 0 20 0 0 20 3 0 2

Irl. 4 38 6 2 50 18 29 0 0 47 3 0 2Ita. 2 39 45 4 90 10 1 75 0 0 86 4 0 6

Neth. 219 8 484 846 1557 517 0 935 23 0 1476 81 10 72Por. 14 0 5 194 212 1 197 0 0 198 14 0 15

U.K. 143 2682 128 23 2976 715 1 2102 38 0 38 0 2857 119 -40 162Aust. 28 173 173 206 9 417 62 1 348 5 0 5 0 416 1 -30 27

Fin. 15 109 122 11 257 0 0 250 5 0 5 0 255 2 -20 19Swed. 7 281 61 2 350 30 0 310 5 0 5 0 345 5 -20 24

Pol. 106 1700 163 216 2185 243 0 1880 17 0 17 0 2141 44 -100 145Hun. 10 377 204 13 605 412 1 180 0 7 600 5 -10 14Cz.R. 37 1128 107 3 1275 355 1 900 0 0 1256 20 -50 69

Slk. 22 218 138 7 385 289 95 0 0 384 1 -10 7Est. 9 149 48 1 208 137 68 0 0 0 0 206 2 0 5Lat. 3 246 45 22 314 197 110 7 0 7 0 314 1 -10 8Lit. 9 439 49 20 517 279 235 0 0 514 3 -10 18Sln. 5 15 8 1 29 24 4 0 0 0 0 28 1 0 0

Cyp. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Mal. 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0

Rom. 7 81 126 1 215 145 5 60 0 0 210 5 0 5Bul. 2 207 2 0 211 185 1 19 0 0 205 6 0 1

EU 27 1284 17593 6205 3115 28197 6205 28 20491 444 67 27236 962 -630 1576

Table 2.2: rapeseed balance sheet July-June 2012/13 and 2011/12 (kt)

8



-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

rape

sun

0,0

20,0

40,0

60,0

80,0

100,0

jul sept nov jan march may

2009/10 2010/11

2011/12 2012/13

Kingdom (+65 kt).

Other usageNo change this month: Rapeseed consump-tion for animal feed and other uses remains forecast at 620 kt in 2011/12.

Crop year 2012/13

Production Rapeseed production in the EU27 is now expected at 17.6 Mt, sharply down on last year’s level (-1.53 Mt compared with 2011/12 - see Production). Since last month, we have sharply reduced our harvest forecasts for France (-570 kt to 4.88 Mt), Poland (-405 kt to 1.7 Mt) and Germany (-465 kt to 4.32 Mt). These reductions mostly correspond to higher than previously expected levels of winterkill/damage. Production is still forecast higher than last year in the UK (+120 kt to 2.68 Mt). Since last month, our estimate for rapeseed pro-duction in 2012 has decreased by 1.54 Mt. Compared with 2011, rapeseed production is expected sharply down in Romania (-585 kt), Bulgaria (-345 kt), France (-500 kt), UK (-195 kt), Poland (-150 kt), Hungary (-150 kt) and Slovakia (-135 kt). After the unfavourable weather impact of 2011, production is ex-pected up in Germany (+0.5 Mt to 4.4 Mt); it should also increase slightly in Czech Republic (+80 kt) and Latvia (+25 kt).

Imports EU rapeseed imports in 2012/13 are expect-ed up slightly compared with 2011/12 (+80 kt) at 3.12 Mt (see table 2.1). Despite high demand in the EU, this increase is fairly small and stems from reduced supplies elsewhere in the world (see below: World market).Compared with 2011/12 (Table 2.1), we fore-cast small reductions in imports from Australia (-100 kt to 1.53 Mt) and Ukraine (-110 kt to 850 kt). The other Black Sea countries could export around 300 kt to the EU (+175 kt no-tably from Belarus, assuming an end to export restrictions in that country). Canada could also export slightly more in 2012/13 to the EU (+125 kt to 400 kt).We forecast higher import volumes in Ger-many (+275 kt to 620 kt) and France (+180 kt to 545 kt), but lower import volumes in most

other countries, notably the Netherlands (-180 kt), Belgium (-95 kt) and Po-land (-65 kt, due to lower imports from Ukraine).These estimates are provisional and will be amended as the year un-folds to reflect harvest volumes and spreads be-tween the prices of EU and other world rapeseed origins.

N.B: Subscribers to our online “EU trade with third countries” module can consult the full trade breakdown for 2011/12 and 2012/13 (for each origin and destination) at our website strategie-grains.com”.

Demand for industrial usageRapeseed crush volume in the EU is ex-pected down sharply in 2012/13 to 20.5 Mt (-1 Mt compared with 2011/12). Our first estimates for crush margins, based on cur-rently quoted prices (prices on futures markets and prices for oils and meals delivered in the new crop year) indicate margins potentially at around 30 €/t in France, 20-25 €/t in the UK, and in Germany between 15 €/t (in Neuss) and 20 €/t (in Hamburg). These levels are around 10 €/t less than averaged values in 2011/12 and in some places will not be suffi-cient to cover fixed produc-tion costs. Hence these crush margins are extremely low. The reduction in crush vol-umes will impact several EU countries, notably Germany (-300 kt), Netherlands (-220 kt), Belgium (-130 kt), Po-land (-105 kt) and Romania (-135 kt). Since last month, we have sharply reduced our estimate for crush volume in the EU by 1.3 Mt; this reflects the lower harvest forecast, high-er prices and the fall in mar-gins (see above). We have

this month reduced projected crush volumes in Germany (-320 kt), Poland (-300 kt), France (-250 kt) and Belgium (-200 kt). Crush in Ro-mania (-25 kt) and Bulgaria (-20 kt) was again revised down.

Other usageRapeseed consumption for animal feed and other uses is forecast lower than the level of 2011/12 at 545 kt, with decreases compared with last year for France (-50 kt) and Denmark (-25 kt) due to sharply reduced availabilities. Since last month, we have decreased other rapeseed usages in France (-100 kt) to reflect the lower harvest forecast.

Graphic 2.3: comparison between rapeseed and sunseed crush margins in France (€/t seeds)

Graphic 2.2: rapeseed crush margins in Hamburg (€/t seeds)

9



Mar. 23 Apr. 20 evolution

c&f Hamburg 470.5 505.1 34.6 7,4%delivered Neuss/Hamm 482.0 500.0 18.0 3,7%

rendu Rostock 474.0 492.0 18.0 3,8%Fob Moselle 477.0 500.0 23.0 4,8%

delivered Rouen 462.0 488.0 26.0 5,6%c&f South UK 469.9 493.2 23.3 5,0%

375

400

425

450

475

500

525

Jul 2011

Aug 2011

Sep 2011

Oct 2011

Nov 2011

Dec 2011

Jan 2012

Feb 2012

Mar 2012

Apr 2012

May 2012

May 12 Aug 12 Nov 12

Rapeseed price (€/t)

PricEs comParison datEd 20/04/2012 New increase for rapeseed prices Table 2.3 shows the main price changes since last month.In Germany, the C&F Hamburg price in-creased sharply, rising almost 35 €/t since last month to 505 €/t. The delivered Neuss and Rostock prices both rose by 18 €/t to 500 €/t and 492 €/t respectively. Rapeseed prices in France also rose sharply: the FOB Moselle price rose 22 €/t to 500 €/t and the FOB Rouen price by 26 €/t to 488 €/t. In the UK, the rapeseed price also followed this trend increasing by 25 €/t (+10 £/t with ster-ling up slightly against the euro). The Hungar-ian price rose slightly in Budapest (almost by 20 €/t).

On most market points in the EU, the higher world soybean price and the sharp fall in expected rapeseed production pushed prices upward in conjunction with a new decline in the value of the euro against the dollar (to 1.31 $/€, down from 1.32 last month). French and UK prices evolved in the same manner and hence the competitive spread be-tween the two origins is unchanged. Hungarian rapeseed’s competitive-ness improved slightly again.On Euronext on April 20 2012, rapeseed closed at 501.25 €/t for May (+20 €/t com-pared with last month), 484.5 €/t for August

(+26.5 €/t), and 474.25 €/t for November (+21 €/t). Contrary to last month, new crop prices rose more sharply than old crop prices and hence the inverse spread has narrowed.

intra-Eu raPEsEEd tradE

Trade volume in 2011/12 still expected at record high — 1 Mt reduction for 2012/13

Crop year 2011/12Our forecasts now include the latest statistics published for crop year 2011/12 (February 2012 for France and Spain, and January 2012 for the other countries). The volume of intra-EU rapeseed trade in 2011/12 is now ex-pected at 7.2 Mt, down 70 kt compared with last month. This fall corresponds to a lower forecast for Dutch exports (-95 kt to 510 kt), and to a smaller extent, UK exports (-10 kt). By contrast, we have increased projected exports from Czech Republic and Bulgaria (+15 kt and +10 kt respectively). On the import side, we have revised down pro-jected import volumes in Germany (-105 kt) but increased projected imports in Hungary, Belgium and Poland (around +10 kt each).Compared with 2010/11, imports are still forecast sharply up in Germany at 3.53 Mt (+1.44 Mt compared with 2010/11). Imports

are also forecast up in Hungary (+195 kt) and Slovakia (+70 kt), with increased tranship-ment of east-EU rapeseeds to Germany. By contrast, rapeseed imports are forecast lower than last year in France (-150 kt), UK (-70 kt), Romania (-105 kt) and Belgium (-75 kt).Rapeseed exports are forecast up sharply from France (+710 kt to 1.9 Mt), from the UK (+230 kt to 660 kt) and from Hungary (+250 kt). Dutch exports are also forecast up (+185 kt), as are Belgian exports (+85 kt); these increases correspond to transhipments from third countries to other EU countries. Exports are expected sharply down from Ro-mania (-320 kt) and Poland (-105 kt), due to the smaller harvests in these countries.These forecasts will be subject to variation over the coming months to reflect trade statistics and changes in price spreads between the dif-ferent origins.

Crop year 2012/13Based on our current harvest forecasts and esti-mates for industrial demand for rapeseeds (no-tably for crush), we expect a 1 Mt reduction in the volume of intra-EU rapeseed trade in 2012/13 to 6.2 Mt. The better harvest in Germany and the very sharp falls in produc-tion in Romania and Bulgaria will significantly alter the pattern of trade between the east and west EU.Compared with 2011/12, German imports are expected down 720 kt to 2.8 Mt; we also forecast smaller import requirements for the Netherlands (-150 kt), France (-140 kt), Hun-gary (-165 kt) and Slovakia (-70 kt). Imports are expected up compared with last year in Denmark (+130 kt), UK (+65 kt) and in sev-eral other countries (Estonia, Austria, Sweden). German exports are expected up 175 kt com-pared with 2011/12, mainly to Scandinavia;

Table 2.3: rapeseed prices in main EU countries dated 20/04/2012

Graphic 2.4: Euronext prices (€/t)

10



origins destinations 2012/13Ger. B/L Den. Spn. Fra. Gre. Irl. Ita.Neth. Por. U.K. Aust. Fin. Swe. Pol. Hun. Cze. Slk. Est. Lat. Lit. Sln. Cyp. Mal. Rom. Bul. EU

Ger. 33 83 0 19 0 0 2 55 0 55 18 50 3 32 2 41 4 0 0 1 7 0 0 1 0 406B/L 313 0 4 29 0 0 0 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 392

Den. 117 0 0 4 0 0 0 5 0 4 0 15 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 154Spn. 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5Fra. 844 405 129 10 0 1 1 192 3 33 0 0 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 1629

Gre. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Irl. 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18Ita. 1 1 2 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 10

Neth. 353 121 0 15 9 0 0 0 0 16 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 517Por. 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

U.K. 181 215 19 0 123 0 5 0 109 0 0 7 31 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 715Aust. 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 62

Fin. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Swed. 1 0 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30

Pol. 224 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 243Hun. 179 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 9 0 0 127 0 0 8 6 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 0 412Cz.R. 265 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 16 8 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 355

Slk. 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 47 0 0 27 167 41 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 289Est. 85 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 7 0 20 10 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 137Lat. 75 8 25 1 5 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 15 4 8 0 0 0 2 46 0 0 0 0 0 197Lit. 73 37 21 0 4 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 13 0 40 0 0 0 46 43 0 0 0 0 0 279Sln. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24

Cyp. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Mal. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Rom. 30 34 0 0 12 2 0 4 34 0 2 4 0 0 2 11 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 145Bul. 4 44 10 0 0 0 0 0 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 105 185EU 2786 904 324 31 210 2 6 45 484 5 128 206 122 61 163 204 107 138 48 45 49 8 0 0 126 2 6205


Ger. 25 14 0 28 0 0 2 65 0 8 3 14 3 35 0 27 4 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 232B/L 318 0 9 21 0 0 0 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 384

Den. 144 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 14 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 169Spn. 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4Fra. 1203 466 6 12 0 1 1 189 7 33 0 0 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 1930

Gre. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Irl. 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25Ita. 1 3 1 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 11

Neth. 374 52 0 2 10 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 451Por. 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

U.K. 313 18 14 0 127 0 4 0 127 0 0 7 24 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 660Aust. 41 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 12 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 69

Fin. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Swed. 1 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13

Pol. 247 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 15 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 275Hun. 380 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 5 0 0 113 0 0 5 10 162 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 0 698Cz.R. 209 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 15 16 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 270


Cyp. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Mal. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Rom. 71 236 0 0 39 2 0 5 115 0 0 3 0 0 2 73 1 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 555Bul. 85 45 48 23 117 0 0 0 78 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 79 476EU 3534 891 192 50 352 2 5 31 634 7 62 182 116 41 209 371 104 208 1 51 46 3 0 0 102 3 7197

Table 2.4: intra-EU rapeseed trade 2012/13 and 2011/12 (kt)

11



Ukraine Canada AustraliaMt 10/11 11/12 12/13 10/11 11/12 12/13 10/11 11/12 12/13

carry-in stocks 0,0 0,0 0.1 2.3 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.6 0.5production 1,5 1,4 0.9 12.8 14.2 14.9 2.4 2.9 2.9

imports 0,0 0,0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0exports 1,4 1,2 0.9 7.1 8.0 7.6 1.5 2.2 2.1

consumption 0,1 0,1 0.1 6.4 6.8 7.4 0.8 0.9 0.8carry-out st. 0,0 0,1 0.1 1.8 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.4

250

350

450

550

650

750

$/t

Ukrainian Rapeseed Fob Odessa

Canadian Canola Fob Vancouver

Rapeseed Europe Cif Hamburg

Czech exports are expected up 85 kt. However, we envisage a sharp decline for Romanian ex-ports to just 145 kt (-410 kt), and Bulgarian exports to just 185 kt (-290 kt), due to the very small harvests forecasts for 2012 in these coun-tries. Lastly, French exports are expected down 300 kt to 1.63 Mt. We have reduced our intra-EU trade forecast by 115 kt since last month. This results from lower import forecasts for Germany (-55 kt)

and Romania (-40 kt), partly offset by higher import forecasts for the UK (+70 kt) and the Netherlands (+55 kt). These changes have a downward impact compared with last month on exports form the central EU countries (-170 kt) and from Bulgaria (-35 kt). These forecasts will be subject to very signifi-cant variations over the coming months to re-flect harvest outcomes in the EU and globally, and changes in price spreads between the dif-

ferent origins. The forecasts will be amended during the coming months to reflect the latest available data.

N.B: Subscribers to our online “Intra-EU Trade” web module can consult the full break-down of intra-EU rapeseed trade (including recorded and projected volumes for each country) at our website strategie-grains.com.

world raPEsEEd markEt

2011/12: fall in demand too low to prevent lower ending stock — 2012/13: new expected reduction in world stocks

Sharp riSe in world rapeSeed priCeS

Since last month, rapeseed prices have risen sharply due to the impact from the soybean market and the lower rapeseed production forecasts for the EU in 2012. The price of

crude oil also fell slightly to 102 $ a barrel on April 19.As of April 20, the C&F Hamburg rapeseed price was 661 $/t (+38 $/t since last month). The price of Canadian canola rose by about 30 US$/t to around 628 US$/t (after an increase of 40 $/t last month). The Canadian price re-

mains therefore close to the C&F Hamburg price after having spent much of the crop year so far be-low it (see graphic 2.5). The price of Australian rapeseed was relatively flat this month at around 490 US$/t (-2 $/t); Australian export availability remains high, at around 1 Mt, see below. As last month, Ukrainian and Bulgarian rapeseed are no longer quoted for old crop deliveries. Apart from Australian rapeseed, the prices of the other world origins have

evolved in the same manner, and competitive spreads are therefore almost unchanged.

ending StoCk 2011/12 expeCt-ed down deSpite lower CruSh demand

Global rapeseed availabilities down 2.7 Mt vs. 2010/11Ending stock 2011/12 is currently estimat-ed at 5.7 Mt, down 0.5 Mt compared with end-2010/11. Carry-in stock is estimated 1.5 Mt less than at the start of 2010/11, and world rapeseed production is set to decline for the second consecutive year to 59.1 Mt (-1.2 Mt vs. 2010/11). Since last month, we have increased projected world production by 0.4 Mt, mostly in India (+0.3 Mt) where the harvest has turned out better than previously expected. As mentioned last month, the largest falls in rapeseed produc-tion compared with last year concern the EU (-1.5 Mt), India (-1.1 Mt), China (-0.6 Mt) and the USA (-0.4 Mt). By contrast, production is up sharply in Canada (+1.4 Mt) and Australia (+0.6 Mt). Despite a smaller harvest than last year in Ukraine, the Black Sea countries in-creased production by 0.3 Mt overall, this in-crease mainly in Russia. Global rapeseed supply in 2011/12 is esti-mated down 2.7 Mt in 2011/12 compared with 2010/11 to 65.3 Mt (+0.4 Mt compared with last month). There is little change this month to our crush demand estimate, which is expected down 2.4 Mt at the global level com-pared with last year, with reductions of 1.5 Mt in India, 1 Mt in the EU, 250 kt in China, 230 kt in Japan, 125 kt in Turkey, and 175 kt in the

Table 2.5 estimated rapeseed balance sheets for Ukraine, Canada and Australia (July/June)

source: Stratégie grains (based on various sources)

Graphic 2.5: world rapeseed prices (US $/t)

12



Mt 10/11 11/12 12/13carry-in stocks 7.8 6.2 5.4

production 60.3 59.1 60.2trade 10.7 11.9 11.2

consumption 61.8 59.9 60.7of which feed 2.4 2.9 2.6

carry-out st. 6.2 5.4 4.9stocks-to-use ratio 10% 9% 8%

USA. These falls are linked to smaller harvests (China, India, EU, USA), or lower imports (Japan, Turkey). Crush demand is expected up in Canada (+0.4 Mt compared with 2010/11) due to the larger harvest. Rapeseed usage is also expected up in Russia (+0.2 Mt).Compared with last month, we have increased our estimates for crush demand by 0.2 Mt with India (+0.3 Mt in line with larger harvest), Japan (+250 kt) and China (+100 kt); these increases are partly offset by reductions in other countries.Demand for rapeseed for human/indus-trial usages in 2011/12 is estimated at 57 Mt (+0.2 Mt compared with last month); it is set to be lower than last year in most parts of the world.Animal feed and other usages are still forecast to increase (+0.5 Mt compared with 2010/11) to 2.9 Mt, mostly due to increased harvest in Canada.

World trade revised upOur trade estimates now include customs sta-tistics for February 2012 for Ukraine, Canada, Australia, USA and EU. World rapeseed trade in 2010/11 is now estimated at 11.8 Mt, up more than 1 Mt compared with 2010/11.Since last month we have increased our world trade forecast by 0.5 Mt; this increase concerns Canadian exports only. As of Febru-ary 29, Canada had already exported 6.4 Mt of rapeseed, including 1 Mt in January and 800 kt in February. We forecast that it will ship a further 1.6 Mt before the end of the crop year, with the pace of exports slowing (to around 400 kt per month). The price of Canadian canola has effectively risen sharply since Febru-ary, which should reduce demand for Cana-dian canola. However, given the high volume of seeds already shipped, we have increased our estimate this month.The higher forecast for Canadian exports im-pacts on import volumes for Japan (+280 kt), China (+100 kt), Mexico (+70 kt), Pakistan and Bangladesh (+50 kt each).Australian exports are unchanged at 2.2 Mt (1.17 Mt shipped as of February 29). Exports are expected higher than in 2010/11 from Canada (+0.9 Mt), Australia (+0.7 Mt), and Russia (+0.2 Mt). By con-trast, we forecast lower export volumes than in 2010/11 from Ukraine (-0.27 Mt), the EU (-0.1 Mt, due to lower availabilities in Romania and Bulgaria). Imports are expected higher

than in 2010/11 in China (+0.7 Mt), the EU (+0.4 Mt), the USA (+0.2 Mt due to smaller harvest) and Pakistan (+0.1 Mt). Several coun-tries will import less than in 2010/11, notably Japan (-0.2 Mt), Mexico (-0.1 Mt) and Turkey (-0.1 Mt). These falls will be offset by increased usage of other oilseeds that are currently cheap-er, or by a decline in total oilseed usage.

World market set to remain tightWe estimate global rapeseed ending stock at 5.4 Mt, which equals just 9 % of total an-nual demand (compared with 10.1 % at end-2010/11 and 12.8 % at end-2009/10). The percentage has fallen slightly since last month (-0.3 %), and this situation should support prices until the end of the crop year. The out-look therefore remains tight. The sharp fall in demand will not be severe enough to prevent a decrease in stock. This is bullish in terms of prices, which will need to keep rising in order to maintain the squeeze on crush demand. In addition, rapeseed prices could be subject to further bullish influence from the very tight soybean market, and the markets for crushed seed products (oils and meals): if the prices for these products increased, the price of seeds will have to increase similarly in order to keep pres-sure on margins. Rape oil and rape meal prices will also be influenced by the global soybean market (see EU Soybean – World Market) and by the world economic conditions in the com-ing months. The price of crude oil price will remain a key factor, with propensity to change sharply in response to geopolitical considera-tions in the Middle East.

Very tight outlook for 2012/13

World production set to increase slightly in 2012We estimate world rapeseed production in 2012/13 at 60.2 Mt, up 1.15 Mt compared with 2011/12. We have reduced this harvest forecast by 1 Mt since last month, reflecting the smaller expected harvests in the EU (-1.5 Mt) and Ukraine (-250 kt), where winter losses were higher than previously expected, and where spring rape plantings are lower than previously envisaged due to the late arrival of spring this year. These reductions are partly offset by increased production forecasts for Canada (+500 kt) and Australia (+200 kt): acreage in these countries estimated up (+235

kha in Canada, and +100 kha in Australia) to reflect the latest available statistics and/or price increases. The increase compared with last year mostly relates to production growth in India (+1.2 Mt) and China (+0.8 Mt), due to an improve-ment in yields after last year’s disappointing results. We also forecast harvest increases for Canada (+0.7 Mt) and the USA (+0.4 Mt); due to increased area; meanwhile production is expected stable in Australia (acreage higher than last year but yields lower following the exceptional results of 2011/12). By contrast, production is set to fall in the EU (see Produc-tion) and the Black Sea (-0.5 Mt), especially in Ukraine, where the harvest is expected at less than 1 Mt. Global opening stock is expected down 0.8 Mt compared with 2011/12: the projected rise in global rapeseed availabilities is therefore small (+0.3 Mt). We estimate global rapeseed sup-ply at 65.6 Mt, down 1.1 Mt compared with last month. Demand is expected up 0.8 Mt compared with 2011/12 (+1.1 Mt for crush and human consumption and -0.3 Mt in animal feeds): the growth in rapeseed crush mostly concerns In-dia and China (+1.1 Mt and +0.8 Mt respec-tively, due to better harvests). Crush demand is also expected up in the Black Sea countries (+0.1 Mt in Russia) and Canada (+0.2 Mt).Demand for rapeseed in animal feeds is expect-ed to decrease slightly, mainly in the EU (due to lower production). Thus for the end of 2012/13, we forecast a further reduction in global rapeseed stock by around 0.5 Mt to just 4.9 Mt or 8.2% of annual global demand (compared with 5.1 Mt or 8.3 % estimated last month). This is even lower than the previous record low level at end-2007/08 (8.4% of annual demand). The out-look is therefore extremely tight; this should

Table 2.6: world rapeseed/canola balance sheet (July/June)

source: Stratégie grains (based on various sources)

13



change in exports change in import requirements10/11 11/12 12/13 ∆ 10/11 11/12 12/13 ∆

EU 27 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 EU27 2.6 3.0 3.1 0.1Ukraine 1.4 1.2 0.9 -0.3 USA 0.5 0.7 0.3 -0.4

Russia 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 Mexico 1.6 1.5 1.4 -0.1Canada 7.1 8.0 7.6 -0.4 China 1.1 1.8 1.9 0.1

Australia 1.5 2.2 2.1 -0.1 Japan 2.3 2.1 2.2 0.1Others 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.1 Turkey 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0

Total 10.7 11.9 11.2 -0.7 Pakistan 0.8 0.9 0.8 -0.1UAE 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.0

Others 0.8 1.1 0.7 -0.4Total 10.7 11.9 11.2 -0.7

push up rapeseed prices in order to maintain the rationing of crush demand for rapeseed.

World trade expected to decline in 2012/13We currently forecast a reduction in global rapeseed trade in 2012/13 to 11.2 Mt (+0.2 Mt compared with last month and –0.5 Mt compared with 2011/12). Canadian exports are expected down to 7.6 Mt (+0.1 Mt compared with last month); despite the larger harvest in 2012, lower open-ing stock will limit export availability. Austral-ian exports are expected down slightly at 2.1 Mt (+0.1 Mt since last month). Exports from Ukraine are expected down again (-0.27 Mt), with lower harvest, as well as EU exports (due to the catastrophic harvests in Romania and Bulgaria).We forecast smaller imports in the USA (-0.4 Mt, due to better harvest), Mexico (-0.1 Mt) and Pakistan (-0.1 Mt). EU imports are ex-pected up slightly (+0.1 Mt) due to the fall in production. Chinese and Japanese imports are also expected up slightly (+0.1 each). China mainly imports from Canada and it should therefore draw benefit from the decline in Ca-nadian exports to other destinations, notably

the USA. However, if China instigates an aggressive import policy for rapeseed then we will increase this estimate, but it would be at the expense of other importing countries.

Very tight outlook for world rape-seed market in 2012/13Given our ending stock forecast, the outlook for the world rapeseed market in 2012/13 is extremely tight; prices are set to stay high for the whole year, with additional upward poten-tial in order to maintain a squeeze on demand (especially crush demand). At a time when global demand for vegetable oils is increasing, the world oilseeds market will be very tight. This situation is therefore extremely bullish, explosive even, for rapeseed

prices.However, upward pressure on prices could be moderated by the beginning of the cam-paign with the arrival of significant quantities of sunseed on the world market. There is also uncertainty around the real level of this year’s soybean acreage in the USA: if plantings in-crease sharply and weather conditions are fa-vourable, the arrival of a large soybean harvest in the USA could also reduce the bullish pres-sure. However, in terms of rapeseed supply and demand, an increase in the rapeseed price now seems inevitable.

analysis of Ending stocks and conclusion

2011/12: small reduction for EU stocks –deficit grows sharply in 2012/13Crop year 2011/12EU rapeseed supply is set to decrease sharply compared with 2010/11 (-1.2 Mt). We have slightly increased projected supply since last month (+0.1 Mt) with increases for imports (+90 kt) and production (+20 kt).EU crush demand has increased slightly since last month (+50 kt). Ending stock on June 30 2012 has increased a little to 1.28 Mt. This is slightly lower (-60 kt) than ending stock a year earlier. It is around 380 kt below the min-imum stock required to comfortably supply the market until the next harvest arrives. The EU rapeseed balance sheet therefore still shows a deficit. The deficit is located in Germany (-240 kt), France (-100 kt), the central EU countries (-90 kt in total for Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary) and the north EU countries (-40 kt). By contrast, there is a surplus in the Netherlands (+130 kt) corresponding to the arrival of imported rapeseed for transhipment to other EU countries at the start of 2012/13

(the Dutch surplus has nevertheless decreased by 90 kt since last month). Supply and demand in the UK remains close to balance. EU ending stock on June 30 2012 equals 5.8 % of annual demand; this percentage re-mains low, although it is the same as at end-2010/11. The outlook therefore remains tight and prices should stay high, especially in Germany and France, in order to keep crush margins low and to prevent demand growth. As mentioned last month, rapeseed prices have no intrinsic potential for decrease and price movements will therefore be in response to developments on the world oilseed and especially soybean markets. The soybean markets is tight, and this should keep rapeseed prices high. The influence of crude oil prices and exchange rates will remain key: if the oil price continues to climb, this will sustain veg-etable oil prices and hence oilseed prices. If, on the other hand, the crude oil price fell sharply (the economic environment remains very un-certain, and major risks remain), this could

moderate or prevent any rise in EU rapeseed prices.

Crop year 2012/13Opening stock is forecast at 1.3 Mt (-60 kt compared with 2011/12) but production is now set to fall sharply to 17.6 Mt. Imports from third countries are expected up slightly to 3.1 Mt. Hence EU rapeseed supply is expected down by 1.5 Mt compared with 2011/12. Against this reduced availability, crush de-mand is expected down by around 1 Mt and the smaller harvest should generate a fall in rapeseed usage in animal feeds (-0.1 Mt). EU exports are set to crash to just 30 kt (due to the dive in Romania’s and Bulgaria’s harvests). Demand (including exports) is therefore ex-pected down 1.2 Mt. However, this demand fall will be insufficient to prevent ending stock from dropping by 0.3 Mt to just 960 kt (the same as we forecast last month). This repre-sents just 4.6% of annual demand or enough

Table 2.7: world import requirements and export forecasts (Mt) — July-June

14



to supply users for two and half weeks only. The deficit below the minimum stock require-ment is therefore very significant at potentially 600 kt (-100 kt since last month). The deficit is particularly pronounced in France (-200 kt), Germany (-120 kt), the central EU countries (-200 kt) and the North EU countries (-50 kt). The UK is now showing a small deficit (-40 kt). Last month we envisaged a significant surplus in the Netherlands; it has now decreased to just 10 kt because we have decreased projected opening stock and increased projected exports to neighbouring countries. Ending stocks of rapeseed in the EU are ex-pected to fall to extremely low levels in most EU countries. Given these current stock fore-casts, the situation is explosive for new crop

rapeseed prices. Since last month, prices have risen sharply, although they retain a further po-tential for increase. The new crop price (485-475 €/t) on Eu-ronext is now 15-25 €/t cheaper than the old crop price (500 €/t). The spread has decreased by around 5-10 €/t since last month; however, according to our current balance sheet fore-casts, the situation in 2012/13 will be tighter than the situation in 2011/12. Our analysis of supply and demand for rape-seeds, oils and meals indicates that new crop prices are already sufficiently high to generate a sharp squeeze on crush margins. Nevertheless, we think that new crop rapeseed prices have a further potential for increase, in order to gener-ate an even sharper fall in crush demand (nota-bly in France). We also think that the price of

rape oil has a significant potential for increase: it should pull up the new crop rapeseed price in its wake, which could then rise over old crop price. Certain factors could limit these potential in-creases, namely the impact of the sunseed mar-ket, which is set to see a bumper harvest this summer (assuming normal weather between now and the harvest) and maybe the soybean market: if US acreage exceeds planting inten-tions, the US soybean harvest in the autumn will be higher than currently envisaged. How-ever, although capable of buffering increases in the rapeseed price temporarily, these factors should not be able to eliminate them in the long term.

15


EuroPEan union sunsEEd balancEs


2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

6.5

7.4 7.4

kt 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13Ukraine 95 168 150 140

Russia 3 0 32 45Moldova 40 71 60 70

China 52 44 40 45USA 60 53 10 40

Argentina 20 20 30 30Others 24 32 31 16

Total 294 388 353 386

• Sharp growth for production and crush demand in Europe in 2011/12

• EU sunseed stocks expected stable in 2011/12 and 2012/13 with supply and demand balanced

• Tighter global situation for 2011/12 and 2012/13


2011/12: production and crush demand expected at record levels

Crop year 2011/12

ProductionSunflower area is estimated at 4.3 Mha (compared with 3.7 Mha in 2010/11). EU sunseed yield is estimated at 1.97 t/ha (1.85 t/ha in 2010/11). EU sunseed production is now estimated at 8.3 Mt (6.9 Mt in 2010/11). This sharp growth corresponds to higher acreage and better yields (due to sufficient rain during the summer and rather dry conditions in September) in many large EU producer countries including France, Spain, Hungary and Romania.

Imports EU sunseed imports from third countries are now expected down slightly in 2011/12: we now forecast imports at 350 kt, down 40 kt compared with 2010/11. Given the increase in production, this level of imports can be considered high. However, the EU will require this level of imports from third countries in order to meet the growth in demand and also given the high levels of exports at the start of crop year 2011/12 from Bulgaria and especially Romania. EU imports from the Black Sea countries have been rather low so far this crop year. Nevertheless, given our current estimates for production and industrial demand in Russia and Ukraine, we envisage

that these countries should have significant volumes that they could potentially export to the EU. We envisage that market participants with supplies available for export will have partly shipped these availabilities before the end of the crop year assuming that sunflower plantings take place normally. These potential export volumes will also represent significant revenue streams at a time when plantings are just beginning in the most precocious producer countries and when world sunseed prices are rising in response to the upward price trend for the whole oilseed complex.Hence given the good margins on sunseed crush in the EU so far this year, we envisage that this surplus availability will partly end up exported to the EU in order to meet EU industrial crush demand.We forecast lower import volumes in 2011/12 from the following countries: Ukraine (150 kt, -20 kt compared with 2010/11 due to lower volumes shipped at the beginning of the year); Moldova (60 kt, down from 70 kt in 2010/11); USA (10 kt down from 50 kt in 2010/11). These reductions will be partly offset by a rise in imports from Russia to 30 kt (up from 0 kt in 2010/11) and Argentina to 30 kt (from 20 kt in 2010/11).

N.B: Subscribers to our online “EU trade with third countries” module can consult the full trade breakdown for 2011/12 and 2012/13 (for each origin and destination) at our website www.

strategie-grains.com.

Demand for crush usageSunseed crush margins were very attractive for the first quarter of 2011/12 at 76 €/t for August-October, or +10 €/t compared with last year; the margin dropped in the second quarter to 57 €/t for November-January, or -10 €/t compared with last year. Crush margins are thus relatively flat compared with the situation in the first half of 2010/11. However, at the start of the crop year (August-November), the margins on sunseed were around 30 €/t better than the crush margins on rapeseed, compared with a spread of 10 €/t for the same months in 2010/11. Since then, the margins have fallen sharply, to 45 €/t average for February through mid-April (against 60 €/t for those months in 2011); sunseed therefore becomes a less attractive crush option for oilseed crushers. However, these margins are still profitable and therefore sunseed crush remains economically attractive. In these conditions, we expect sunseed crush to hit a record volume in 2011/12 of 7.4 Mt, up 1 Mt compared with 2010/11 (see graphic 3.1).This sharp rise in sunseed crush activity will impact France (+330 kt to 1.7 Mt), Hungary (+200 kt to 880 kt, notably thanks to the startup of a new crushing plant in Fokto), Italy (+120 kt to 500 kt), and Spain (+90 kt to 1.3 Mt). We also forecast smaller increases in other countries: Portugal (+70 kt to 240 kt), Belgium (+60 kt to 110 kt), Romania (+30 kt to 860 kt), Slovakia (+40 kt to 100 kt) and Czech Republic (+70 kt). Crush volume is expected down slightly in Bulgaria (-20 kt to 470 kt) and the Netherlands (-70 kt to 510 kt) after the very high levels recorded in 2010/11. This record crush level is achievable because of the many oilseed crush plants in Europe that can rapidly switch between sunseed and rapeseed as their raw material; hence

Table 3.1: EU sunseed imports by origin (kt)

Graphic 3.1: crush demand for sunseed in the EU27 (Mt)

Source: Stratégie grains (based on data from Eurostats)

16



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Ger. 41 64 51 468 27 600 70 2 390 105 0 105 0 567 34 0 40Bel/L 11 0 57 3 71 10 0 60 0 0 70 1 0 0Den. 3 0 21 5 30 6 0 0 20 0 20 0 26 3 0 0Spn. 101 804 804 435 90 1429 75 0 1200 71 0 71 0 1347 82 -20 100Fra. 133 1867 1743 331 86 2417 444 15 1659 150 8 142 24 2292 125 -20 140

Gre. 18 112 112 18 7 155 0 137 0 0 137 18 10 10Irl. 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 -0 -0 0Ita. 37 262 262 211 34 545 14 3 470 19 0 19 0 506 39 0 40

Neth. 44 0 598 20 661 34 1 580 0 0 615 46 0 40Por. 21 10 10 176 16 223 19 190 0 0 209 14 0 10

U.K. 6 2 2 31 14 54 1 0 0 49 0 49 0 50 4 0 0Aust. 20 71 71 103 3 197 47 1 126 9 0 9 0 184 14 0 10

Fin. 5 0 11 1 17 1 12 0 0 13 4 0 1Swed. 3 0 22 2 27 1 1 0 21 0 21 0 22 5 0 0

Pol. 3 4 4 38 12 57 13 0 35 9 0 9 0 57 0 0 0Hun. 98 1406 1386 126 7 1637 571 26 910 32 0 32 0 1539 98 30 70Cz.R. 5 123 123 34 1 162 73 0 80 0 0 153 10 0 10

Slk. 11 255 255 57 2 325 176 0 110 10 0 10 0 297 28 20 10Est. 4 0 2 1 7 0 0 0 0 0 7 10 0Lat. 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0Lit. 1 0 2 3 6 1 0 4 0 0 5 1 0 0Sln. 2 1 1 3 1 7 0 0 0 6 0 6 0 6 1 0 0

Cyp. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Mal. -0 0 0 0 -0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0 0 0

Rom. 71 1779 1769 193 37 2079 701 351 920 13 0 13 0 1985 94 20 70Bul. 32 1381 1381 40 14 1466 720 187 520 4 0 4 0 1431 35 -10 40

EU 27 671 8140 2978 386 12176 2978 588 7404 518 25 11512 663 52 610

Aug

.-Jul

y 20

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Ger. 35 53 39 499 36 623 61 4 400 117 0 117 0 582 41 0 40Bel/L 35 0 96 3 133 17 0 105 0 0 122 11 0 8Den. 13 0 15 2 30 6 1 0 20 0 20 0 27 3 0 2Spn. 102 1035 1035 318 76 1531 98 2 1250 80 0 80 0 1430 101 0 102Fra. 78 1885 1715 451 29 2443 424 11 1700 151 8 143 24 2309 133 -10 144

Gre. 38 112 112 21 7 178 0 0 160 0 0 160 18 10 12Irl. 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0Ita. 23 274 274 250 45 593 18 9 500 29 0 29 0 556 37 0 41

Neth. 72 0 544 13 628 74 1 510 0 0 585 44 0 39Por. 13 15 15 242 17 287 22 240 4 0 4 0 266 21 0 19

U.K. 17 2 2 22 17 58 1 0 0 51 0 51 0 52 6 0 4Aust. 32 74 74 121 4 231 51 6 137 17 0 17 0 211 20 10 12

Fin. 1 0 24 1 26 1 19 1 0 1 0 21 5 0 2Swed. 4 0 21 2 26 1 2 0 21 0 21 0 23 3 0 2

Pol. 3 4 4 31 13 51 4 0 35 9 0 9 0 48 3 0 3Hun. 12 1368 1368 118 29 1528 498 21 880 32 0 32 0 1430 98 30 70Cz.R. 2 71 71 67 1 141 65 0 70 1 0 1 0 136 5 0 5

Slk. -0 219 219 80 0 299 173 1 100 15 0 15 0 289 11 0 9Est. 0 0 4 1 5 0 0 0 1 1 4 0 0Lat. 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0Lit. 0 0 2 3 6 1 0 4 0 0 5 1 0 0Sln. 0 1 1 5 1 8 0 0 0 6 0 6 0 6 2 0 0

Cyp. 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Mal. -0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0 0 0

Rom. 105 1792 1777 119 43 2059 747 363 860 18 0 18 0 1988 71 0 68Bul. 68 1385 1385 34 10 1497 824 168 469 4 0 4 0 1465 32 0 36

EU 27 655 8290 3086 353 12383 3086 587 7440 575 25 11712 671 50 618

Table 3.2: EU sunseed balance sheet, August-July 2012/13 and 2011/12 (kt)

17



20,0

40,0

60,0

80,0

100,0

aug oct dec feb apr jun

2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

the increases in France, Portugal, Germany, Hungary and Bulgaria are mostly driven by producers switching from rapeseed to sunseed in the first half of crop year 2011/12. The increases in Spain, Italy and Romania depend less on this substitution since these countries have a larger number of capacities that can only crush sunseed.

Demand in other sectorsWe estimate demand for sun seed in animal feeds in 2011/12 at a higher level than in 2010/11. We currently forecast this demand at 580 kt, up 40 kt compared with 2010/11 due to the growth in availability.

Crop year 2012/13

ProductionSunflower area is expected up 200 kha in the EU in 2012/13. This growth is mostly linked to the replanting with sunflower of winter crop fields that were damaged or destroyed by the harsh winter conditions. We estimate total sunflower area in the EU at 4.3 Mha; yield

is expected down slightly at 1.9 t/ha (compared with 1.97 t/ha in 2011, when the climate was extremely positive in terms of sunseed yield). EU sunseed production in 2012/13 is now estimated at 8.1 Mt (-0.2 Mt compared with 2011/12). Plantings are currently taking place in France and Spain and in the southeast EU countries.

Imports Sunseed imports from third countries in 2012/13 are expected up 30 kt compared with 2011/12 at 390 kt; this is the same level of imports as in 2010/11. The increase stems from the lower level of EU production after the record harvest of 2011. We forecast higher

imports from the USA (+30 kt to 40 kt due to increased availabilities) but little change compared with 2011/12 for imports from the Black Sea countries.

Demand for crush usageSunseed prices are not yet quoted for the new crop year. However, current new crop prices for sun oil and sunmeal for the start of 2012/13 indicate that margins on sunseed crush will not match the record levels seen in early 2011/12.We therefore envisage that sunseed crush demand will stay relatively flat in 2012/13 compared with 2011/12 (-40 kt Mt to 7.4 Mt). This fall is fairly small given the high projected availability of sunseed, which is nevertheless forecast slightly down on the level of 2011/12.Sunseed crush volumes are therefore estimated down in Spain (-50 kt to 1.2 Mt), Portugal (-50 kt to 190 kt), Belgium (-50 kt to 60 kt), France (-40 kt to 1.7 Mt) and Italy (-30 kt to 470 kt) with smaller reductions in Greece, Germany and Austria. These falls will be partly offset by higher crush demand in the Netherlands (+70 kt to 580 kt), Romania (+60 kt to 920 kt), Bulgaria (+50 kt to 520 kt) and Hungary (+30 kt to 910 kt), with smaller increases in Czech Republic and Slovakia.

Demand in other sectorsWe estimate demand for sun seed in animal feeds at 520 kt in 2012/13, down 60 kt compared with 2011/12; this is due to the small fall in availabilities.

intra-Eu sunsEEd tradE

2011/12: trade expected up due to higher industrial demand – small reduction expected in 2012/13

Crop year 2011/12Intra-EU sunseed trade is forecast to increase sharply by 490 kt in 2011/12 to 3.1 Mt. This growth will mainly be driven by the rise in industrial demand, which is forecast very high. We forecast higher import volumes in France (+290 kt to 450 kt), Italy (+110 kt to 250 kt), Portugal (+90 kt to 240 kt), Germany (+70 kt to 500 kt), Czech Republic (+60 kt to 70 kt) and smaller increases for Bulgaria, Slovakia and Austria (+30 kt each to 30 kt, 80 kt and 120 kt respectively).By contrast, import needs are set to be lower

than in 2010/11 in Romania (-190 kt to 120 kt) and Hungary (-80 kt to 120 kt) due to exceptionally high production in these countries. Given these higher production levels, Romanian exports are expected up 200 kt to 750 kt; Hungarian exports up 30 kt to 520 kt, Slovakian exports up 30 kt to 170 kt and Czech exports up 30 kt to 70 kt. Bulgarian exports are also expected up (+90 kt to 820 kt) due to a lower level of exports to third countries. We also forecast slightly larger export volumes from the Netherlands (+50 kt to 70 kt) and Spain (+30 kt to 110 kt). By contrast, German exports are set to fall by 20 kt to 60 kt.

Crop year 2012/13Intra-EU sunseed trade is expected down 110 kt in 2012/13 to 3 Mt, which is nevertheless extremely high in historical terms. Import volumes are forecast down in France (-120 kt to 330 kt), Portugal (-70 kt to 180 kt) with smaller reductions for Belgium/Luxembourg and Italy (-40 kt each to 60 kt and 210 kt respectively). Import volumes are also expected down slightly in Germany, Czech Republic, Austria and Slovakia. Import volumes are set to be higher than in 2011/12 in Romania (+70 kt to 190 kt) and the

Graphic 3.2 : Sunseed crush margin in France (€/t)

18




Ger. 2 6 0 35 0 0 3 5 0 1 4 0 0 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 61B/L 8 0 0 1 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17

Den. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6Spn. 0 0 0 38 0 0 0 0 59 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 98Fra. 149 19 0 205 0 0 4 15 11 10 4 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 424

Gre. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Irl. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Ita. 3 2 0 1 2 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 2 0 18

Neth. 29 3 1 0 1 0 0 0 30 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 74Por. 0 0 0 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22

U.K. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1Aust. 25 0 1 0 0 0 0 19 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 51

Fin. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1Swed. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

Pol. 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4Hun. 135 24 0 0 1 0 0 41 60 0 1 61 0 5 14 32 41 3 0 0 0 0 0 59 20 498Cz.R. 38 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 0 0 2 0 0 7 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 65


Cyp. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Mal. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Rom. 15 9 0 44 198 0 0 106 197 51 0 6 0 0 0 78 0 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 747Bul. 40 37 3 45 174 20 0 52 254 90 5 19 21 8 2 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 50 824EU 499 96 15 318 451 21 0 250 544 242 22 121 24 21 31 118 67 80 4 1 2 5 0 0 119 34 3086


Ger. 2 6 0 36 0 0 7 5 0 1 6 0 2 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 70B/L 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10

Den. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6Spn. 0 0 0 24 0 0 0 0 51 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 75Fra. 90 12 3 244 0 0 4 66 6 11 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 444

Gre. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Irl. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Ita. 3 1 0 1 3 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 14

Neth. 20 3 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 34Por. 0 0 0 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19

U.K. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1Aust. 25 0 1 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 47

Fin. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1Swed. 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

Pol. 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13Hun. 162 25 0 0 1 0 0 41 136 0 1 38 0 4 23 13 38 2 0 0 0 0 0 77 10 571Cz.R. 44 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 1 0 0 1 0 0 6 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 73


Cyp. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Mal. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Rom. 19 5 0 87 150 10 0 87 193 46 0 4 0 0 0 60 0 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 27 701Bul. 38 9 4 84 116 7 0 36 190 72 5 18 8 8 4 12 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 108 720EU 468 57 21 435 331 18 1 211 598 176 31 103 11 22 38 126 34 57 2 0 2 3 0 0 193 40 2978

Table 3.3: intra-EU sunseed trade 2012/13 and 2011/12 (kt)

19



Mt 10/11 11/12 12/13carry-in stocks 3.0 3.4 3.6

production 33.2 39.8 39.3trade 1.6 2.3 2.4

consumption 32.8 39.6 39.5of which feed 1.9 2.0 2.0

carry-out st. 3.4 3.6 3.3stocks-to-use ratio 6% 5% 5%

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

$/t Ukrainian Sunseed Fob

Argentinean Sunseed BCBA

Hungarian Sunseed BSE

EU Sunseed Delivered Bordeaux

Russia Ukraine Moldova ArgentinaMt 10/11 11/12 12/13 10/11 11/12 12/13 10/11 11/12 12/13 10/11 11/12 12/13

Carry-in stocks 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.0 1.4 1.4Production 5.3 9.6 8.7 7.8 9.3 9.8 0.4 0.5 0.4 3.7 3.6 3.1

Imports 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Exports 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1

Consumption 5.4 9.1 8.4 7.4 8.7 9.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 3.2 3.5 3.2Carry-out stocks 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.4 1.4 1.3

Netherlands (+30 kt to 600 kt) due to demand growth in these countries.Exports are expected lower than in 2011/12 from Romania (-50 kt to 700 kt), Bulgaria

(-100 kt to 720 kt) and the Netherlands (-40 kt to 30 kt) due to higher crush demand in these countries. Spanish exports are also forecast lower (-20 kt to 80 kt) due to its smaller

expected harvest in 2012. Meanwhile we forecast higher export volumes from Hungary (+70 kt to 570 kt), France (+20 kt to 440 kt) and Germany (+10 kt to 70 kt).

world sunsEEd markEt

Global sunseed stocks now expected down at end-2011/12 and end-2012/13

priCeS inCreaSe on world market SinCe laSt monthSince the beginning of 2012, the price of sunseed on the European market has increased; it had risen to 650 $/t on 18 April 2012 delivered Bordeaux from, from 610 $/t on March 21 and 520 $/t on December 30 2011. During the period March 21 through April 19, price rises were also recorded in Hungary (+30 $/t to 560 $/t on the Budapest Stock Exchange), Argentina (+50 $/t to 580 $/t FOB) and Ukraine (+10 $/t to 540 $/t despite extremely high availability). These increases were mainly in response to the deteriorating outlook for soybean production in South America and rapeseed production in Europe. After the sharp price falls recorded at the start of the crop year and the price stagnation in Ukraine and Russia following the record harvests in these countries, sunflower finally seems to be moving with the same price trend seen across the rapeseed and soybean markets since the start of the crop year.

2011/12: produCtion, demand and StoCk all foreCaSt up

Sharp growth in global sunseed

production in 2011/12Global carry-in stock is estimated at 3.4 Mt at the start of 2011/12, up 0.4 Mt compared with 2010/11. World sunseed production is forecast at the record level of 39.8 Mt, +6.6 Mt compared with 2010/11. This surge in production stems from the much larger harvest than last year in Russia (+4.3 Mt to 9.6 Mt) due to a +350 kha acreage increase on last year and better yields due to ideal weather. Production also increased sharply in Ukraine (+1.5

Mt to 9.3 Mt) also due to higher planted area (+450 kha) and better yields (and despite the despite the Ukrainian government’s attempts to dissuade farmers from increasing sunflower area by retaining crop rotations that maintain the soil in a better condition). Production in the EU also rose sharply (+1.4 Mt to 8.3 Mt). Moldova, Kazakhstan, China and Pakistan also all produced larger sunseed harvests than in 2010. By contrast, sunseed production was smaller than in 2010 in Argentina (-0.1 Mt to 3.6 Mt) due to lower yields than the record levels attained in 2010/11; the drought impacted sunflower much less than the other crops in Argentina such as maize and soybean because the sunflower is planted rather earlier (meaning the plants escaped with less damage) and because sunflower is generally more

resistant to drought. Sunseed production also declined in the USA (-0.3 Mt to 0.9 Mt), and South Africa (-0.3 Mt to 0.5 Mt, due to lower planted area and yields).In terms of demand, high availabilities combined with very good sunseed crush margins in 2011/12 should result in a sharp rise in global demand for sunseed. Crush demand is expected up 6.5 Mt in total, with increases for the EU (+1 Mt to 7.4 Mt), Russia

Table 3.4: world sunseed supply and demand balance sheet – August-July

(Mt)

source: Stratégie grains based on several sources

Table 3.5: sunseed balance sheets for Ukraine, Russia, Moldova, and Argentina – August-July

source: Stratégie grains based on several sources

Graphic 3.3: world sun seed prices (FOB in US $/t)

20



change in exports change in import requirements10/11 11/12 12/13 ∆ 10/11 11/12 12/13 ∆

EU27 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.0 EU27 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0Ukraine 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.2 Turkey 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.0

USA 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 Argentina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0China 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 Pakistan 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1

Moldova 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 USA 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0Russia 0.0 0.5 0.3 -0.2 Morocco 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0

Others 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 Others 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.0Total 1.6 2.3 2.4 0.1 Total 1.6 2.3 2.4 0.1

(+3.4 Mt to 8.4 Mt), Ukraine (+1.3 Mt to 8.6 Mt), Argentina (+200 kt to 3.4 Mt), Turkey (+260 kt to 1.9 Mt, South Africa (+200 kt to 750 kt) and Pakistan (+300 kt to 1 Mt), plus smaller increases for Morocco and Egypt. By contrast, crush demand is expected lower than last year the USA (-170 kt to 0.4 Mt). We now estimate the total sunseed volume used in the global crush industry at 36.3 Mt in 2011/12.

World trade estimated at 2.3 Mt World sun seed trade is forecast to grow by 0.6 Mt in 2011/12 to 2.3 Mt. Russia will be the main engine behind this trade expansion, thanks to a 490 kt growth in exports (to 500 kt) on the back of a sharp rise in production. We also forecast larger export volumes from the EU (+100 kt to 590 kt), Argentina (+30 kt to 90 kt), China (+40 kt to 210 kt) and Moldova (+50 kt to 170 kt). Given the volumes already exported, we now envisage slightly lower export forecasts for Ukraine (-40 kt to 410 kt) and the USA (-40 kt to 100 kt due to lack of availability).Turkey retains and reinforces its position as the leading sunseed importer with a 290 kt rise in imports to 950 kt. Pakistan also registers a growing interest with imports expected up 230 kt at 270 kt. Egypt is also set to import more sunseed in 2011/12 (+50 kt to 100 kt), as is Morocco (+10 kt to 100 kt). Our forecasts for exports from Russia (530 kt) and Ukraine (410 kt) are based on a sharp rise in the pace of exports through the second half of crop year 2011/12. It is also of note that Turkey is expected to draw in around 40% of total exports on the world market (however, this forecast is based on sun oil refining margins in Turkey: changes in sunflower product prices could lead to an increase in Turkish sun oil imports at the expense of sunseed, or vice-versa).

World stock set to decrease as percentage of annual demandGiven the small increase in projected demand for sunseed for other usages (+300 kt at the world level), we estimate world sunseed ending stock up 140 kt at 3.6 Mt. This ending stock represents 9.1% of annual global demand (down from 10.5% at the end of 2010/11). Thus, despite this increase in stock, the world sunseed market will tighten slightly at the end of 2011/12: supply and demand is forecast balanced but the equilibrium is fragile. The balance sheets for rapeseed and soybean are also now much tighter for the end of crop year 2011/12: sunseed prices could therefore be pulled up in response to the other oilseed prices rising. However, availabilities in the Black Sea countries are still high and Argentina’s harvest has just been completed: this could keep downward pressure on world sunseed prices in the short term whilst Black Sea and Argentinean seeds find their outlets.

2012/13: Small fallS in demand and produCtion

World production and demand set to fall in 2012/13 Opening stock at the start of 2012/13 is expected 0.1 Mt higher than at the start of 2011/12. Sunseed production is currently expected to decrease to 39.3 Mt, down 0.5 Mt from the record 2011 harvest. This reduction will stem from smaller harvests in Argentina (-0.5 Mt to 3.1 Mt), Russia (-0.9 Mt to 8.7 Mt) and the EU (-0.2 Mt to 8.1 Mt). These falls will be partly offset by a new increase for Ukraine (+0.5 Mt to 9.8 Mt) corresponding to destroyed winter crop areas being replanted in part with sunflower. Production is also expected up in the USA (+0.2 Mt to 1.1 Mt, due to large acreage and better yields), Turkey

(+200 kt to 1 Mt), India (+50 kt to 700 kt) and South Africa (+100 kt to 0.6 Mt). World demand for sunseed for crushing will remain at the current exceptionally high level on account of the low expected availability of rapeseed and soybean; it should nevertheless be slightly lower than the record level of 2011/12 (-0.1 Mt) at 36.2 Mt. This lower level of crush demand will stem from reductions in Argentina (-0.3 Mt to 3.1 Mt), Russia (-0.6 Mt to 7.8 Mt), although these will be mostly offset by increases in Ukraine (+0.5 Mt to 9.1 Mt), Turkey (+0.1 Mt to 2 Mt), USA (+0.1 Mt to 500 kt) as well as in India and Pakistan. Demand for other usages is also expected down slightly at the world level (+70 kt) due to reduced availabilities.

New growth in world sunseed tradeWe forecast a further growth in the volume of world sunseed trade in 2012/13 to 2.4 Mt, up 0.1 Mt compared with 2011/12. Imports will continue to rise in Pakistan in order to meet sharply growing demand (+0.1 Mt to 1.1 Mt), in the EU (+30 kt to 390 kt); imports are now expected down in Turkey (-50 kt to 0.9 Mt due to higher domestic production). Exports are forecast to increase again from Ukraine due to higher availabilities (+240 kt to 650 kt) and the USA (+20 kt to 120 kt), but will decrease from Russia (-230 kt to 270 kt), and Argentina (-40 kt to 50 kt). Exports from Moldova and the EU are now expected at the same levels as in 2011/12

New reduction for global sunseed stocks in 2012/13Given these forecasts for supply and demand, we forecast that global sunseed stock will decrease by 0.3 Mt in 2012/13 to 3.3 Mt. This level equates to 8.4% of annual global demand (down from 9.1% at the end of 2011/12). The outlook for the new crop year has therefore tightened. This indicates that world sunseed prices should rise during 2012/13 in order to decrease demand. In addition, the outlooks for the world soybean and rapeseed markets are tight for 2012/13. This could hasten any increase in the sunseed price because any increase in the rapeseed and soybean prices could generate a new growth in demand for sunseed.

Table 3.6: estimated sun seed import requirements and export volumes (Mt) – August–July crop year

21



analysis of Ending stocks and conclusion

EU stocks forecast stable between 2011/12 and 2012/13 with supply and demand balanced

Crop year 2011/12EU sunseed production is forecast up 1.4 Mt compared with 2010/11 and imports down 40 kt; carry-in stock is forecast down 0.3 Mt against 2010/11. EU sunseed supply is forecast to increase by 1.1 Mt compared with 2010/11Sunseed crush volume is expected up 1 Mt in 2010/11 due to this year’s very good crush margins, especially at the start of the crop year with regard to low rapeseed crush margins. Demand in the other sectors is also set to increase (+30 kt). EU exports are expected up 100 kt in 2011/12. Hence demand for sunseed in the EU is forecast to rise by 1.1 Mt in 2011/12.In conclusion, stocks at end-2011/12 are

now expected at 0.7 Mt, the same as at end-2010/11. This equates to 8.4% of annual demand, which is close to the minimum stock required until the next crop becomes available. Sunseed prices in the EU therefore have no intrinsic potential for increase or decrease until the end of the crop year but will remain under the influence of global oilseed market trends. The situation is rather tight for old crop soybean and rapeseed and this should support sunseed prices until the end of the crop year.

Crop year 2012/13EU sunseed production is forecast down 0.2 Mt compared with 2011/12 and imports up 30 kt; carry-in stock is forecast up 40 kt against 2011/12. EU sunseed supply is forecast to

decrease by 0.1 Mt compared with 2011/12.Sunseed crush volume is expected down 40 kt compared with 2011/12. Demand in the other sectors is also set to decrease (-60 kt). EU exports are expected stable at 590 kt. Hence, we envisage that demand for sunseed in the EU will decline by 0.1 Mt in 2012/13.In conclusion, stocks at end-2012/13 are now expected stable (the same as end-2011/12) at 0.7 Mt. This equates to 8.8% of annual demand, which is close to the minimum stock required to end the year with supply and demand in balance. Sunseed prices in the EU therefore have no intrinsic potential for increase or decrease. However, the outlook for the world soybean and rapeseed markets in 2012/13 is now extremely tight and this should create bullish pressure for sunseed prices.


EuroPEan union soybEan balancEs

EuroPEan union soybEan balancEs

22

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

12.3

11.9

12.6

2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

USA 2499 3174 2403 3201Canada 1186 1080 1509 1538

Europe excl. EU 25 73 75 76Asia 15 18 20 20

Ukraine 123 388 1047 1067Moldavia 9 32 8 8

Kazakhstan 3 11 16 16Argentina 131 52 32 33

Brazil 5984 5046 4351 4208Paraguay 2221 2316 2000 1506Uruguay 509 290 264 269

Others 16 22 2 10Total 12721 12502 11727 11953

• Improved soybean crush margins for start of 2012/13 – soybean imports expected up

• Soybean crush expected at 11.9 Mt in EU in 2011/12; imports expected lower than in 2010/11

• World stocks expected sharply down at end-2011/12 (-25 Mt)

• World stocks expected to decline again in 2012/13 (-8 Mt); recovery in world production will not

compensate for lower opening stock and higher global demand


Imports and soybean crush expected down in 2011/12 – 2012/13: crush activity set to increase

Crop year 2011/12

ProductionWe estimate soybean production in the EU in 2011 at 1.3 Mt, up 140 kt compared with 2010. Production increased to the greatest extent in Italy (+100 kt to 0.8 Mt and in Central Europe (+50 kt to 260 kt).

Since last month, we have slightly reduced estimated soybean production (-20 kt), in Italy (-10 kt) and Austria (-10 kt).

N.B: Subscribers to the “EU crop – Oilseed” module on our website www.strategie-grains.com may consult our full area, yield and production estimates with historical database and forecasts by country and crop year.

Demand for crush usageSoybean crush margins in 2011/12 are very low. Given prices of soybean, soy oil and meal in Rotterdam this year, the average crush margin since the start of the crop year has barely been 9 €/t, compared with 26 €/t average during crop year 2010/11 and 47 €/t in crop year 2009/10.However, crush margins have fluctuated sharply since the start of the crop year. Crush margins were around 20 €/t average in October and November and briefly hit 31 €/t at the end of October (level at which crush plants activity is profitable). Since then, crush margins fell and were even negative at the start of December through mid-January. Since then, the margins have partially recovered: the average margin for January-March 2012 was still very low, at 10 €/t. Since the beginning of April, potential revenue from crush activity has risen, but is still very low (12 €/t average since the start of April). Hence in the north and west EU countries, soybean crush activity is still unattractive.We therefore forecast that soybean crush demand will fall by 0.46 Mt in 2011/12 to 11.9 Mt (compared with 12.4 Mt in 2010/11). This estimate is virtually unchanged since last month. However, to reflect the latest customs and crush statistics, we have made some small

changes to projected crush volumes in several countries since last month.Crush demand is revised down in Germany (-60 kt) and Portugal (-70 kt) but up in Spain, UK and Belgium.Given that margins have been positive at the beginning of the crop year, crush volume in France increased by 20 % in total through the first months of the crop year (October-December) compared with the same months a year earlier. We are working on the basis that crush volumes will decline sharply in the coming months due to the deterioration in margins. We currently forecast a 10% increase in soybean crush in France in 2011/12 to 560 kt (+50 kt).Data on oilseed crush published by the agriculture ministry in Germany indicate a rise of 6 % at in the first months of the crop year (October-December). We currently expect the volume of soybean crush in Germany at just below 3 Mt, which is very slightly up on the level of 2010/11 (+3 %, or +90 kt); across the remainder of crop year we expect a slowdown in crush activity. For other EU countries, statistics for soybean imports from third countries suggest a slowdown in crush activities compared with last year starting October 2011: we estimate sharp falls in crush demand in the Netherlands (-460 kt), Portugal (-180 kt) and Greece (-50 kt). By contrast, soybean imports in Spain and Italy indicate that soybean crush demand has not changed greatly compared with the same period last year (no change forecast compared with 2010/11).Meanwhile in Belgium and Romania, import data suggests that soybean crush demand should increase slightly in 2011/12.

Table 4.1: EU soybean imports by country of origin (kt)

Graphic 4.1: demand for soybean for crush usage in the EU27 (Mt)

source : Stratégie grains (based on data from Eurostat)


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Ger. 290 2 953 1984 3229 26 0 3039 0 0 3066 163 -60 223Bel/L 78 0 115 383 576 221 2 342 3 0 3 0 567 9 -10 16Den. 13 0 22 54 88 0 0 87 0 0 87 2 -10 8Spn. 222 2 51 3069 3344 5 2795 345 0 345 0 3145 199 -10 214Fra. 55 114 105 40 542 752 21 8 560 134 110 24 5 729 23 -20 39

Gre. 23 0 4 234 261 0 242 0 0 242 19 0 21Irl. 0 0 4 10 14 1 12 0 0 13 1 0 1Ita. 130 653 295 1347 2425 81 2 1817 416 0 416 20 2337 88 -40 128

Neth. 221 0 175 2724 3120 953 0 1944 50 0 50 9 2957 163 -10 175Por. 64 0 5 671 740 24 667 0 9 700 39 -10 52

U.K. 133 0 38 600 771 5 0 751 0 0 756 15 -40 53Aust. 4 118 20 13 155 84 4 31 30 0 30 6 155 0 0 3

Fin. 4 0 4 5 12 0 6 0 0 6 6 0 5Swed. 2 0 3 7 12 0 8 0 0 8 3 0 5

Pol. 10 0 6 18 34 32 3 0 0 35 -0 0 0Hun. 8 90 23 16 137 33 4 70 25 0 25 5 137 0 0 4Cz.R. 30 18 11 4 62 22 0 40 0 0 62 -0 0 2

Slk. 15 35 5 1 56 9 0 26 3 0 3 2 40 16 10 1Est. -0 0 0 2 2 2 0 0 0 2 -0 0 0Lat. 1 0 2 9 12 12 0 0 0 12 -0 0 0Lit. 3 0 12 2 17 0 17 0 0 17 -0 0 1Sln. 0 0 5 230 235 235 0 0 0 0 235 0 0 0

Cyp. 3 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0Mal. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Rom. 12 178 17 27 235 46 17 169 0 3 235 -0 -10 7Bul. 1 2 9 1 13 3 9 0 0 12 1 0 1

EU 27 1323 1211 1816 11953 16304 1816 38 12634 1006 58 15553 750 -210 959

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Ger. 268 2 742 2299 3310 36 1 2984 0 0 3020 290 70 223Bel/L 117 0 110 352 579 220 2 276 3 0 3 0 501 78 60 16Den. 31 0 23 44 98 0 0 85 0 0 85 13 0 8Spn. 211 2 48 3077 3338 7 2764 345 0 345 0 3116 222 10 214Fra. 55 123 95 37 600 814 18 6 563 165 110 55 8 760 55 20 39

Gre. 20 4 6 213 244 0 221 0 0 221 23 0 21Irl. 1 0 7 5 13 1 12 0 0 13 0 0 1Ita. 132 781 150 1255 2318 86 2 1664 416 0 416 20 2188 130 0 128

Neth. 189 0 183 2541 2913 814 0 1819 50 0 50 9 2692 221 50 175Por. 39 0 7 547 594 31 0 489 0 9 529 64 10 52

U.K. 142 0 45 626 812 10 0 669 0 0 680 133 80 53Aust. 14 109 22 4 150 38 2 29 70 0 70 6 145 4 0 3

Fin. 5 0 7 3 15 0 6 5 0 11 4 0 0Swed. 9 0 6 6 20 0 0 12 5 0 17 2 0 1

Pol. 21 0 6 2 29 1 7 10 0 18 10 10 0Hun. 17 91 26 11 145 30 5 72 25 0 25 5 136 8 0 4Cz.R. 40 18 17 1 76 2 0 39 5 0 46 30 30 2

Slk. 5 42 4 0 51 6 0 25 3 0 3 2 36 15 10 1Est. -0 0 0 4 4 4 0 0 0 4 -0 0 0Lat. 7 0 4 0 10 10 0 0 0 10 1 0 0Lit. 3 0 10 3 16 0 13 0 0 13 3 0 1Sln. 6 0 5 112 123 123 0 0 0 0 123 0 0 0

Cyp. 3 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0Mal. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Rom. 22 156 22 20 220 49 1 130 25 0 25 3 208 12 10 7Bul. 5 2 4 0 11 1 0 8 0 0 9 1 0 1

EU 27 1361 1330 1489 11727 15906 1489 20 11887 1127 61 14583 1323 360 950

Table 4.2: EU27 soybean balance sheet October-September 2012/13 and 2011/12 (kt)



Imports Soybean imports from third countries are expected down 0.8 Mt in 2011/12 at 11.7 Mt. This decline can mostly be attributed to the fall in crush activities in the EU. Since last month, we have increased our import forecast by 75 kt to reflect the latest EU customs data (to end-February 2012). Soybean imports have been increased slightly for the UK (+80 kt), Italy, Spain, Belgium (+50 kt each) and France (+25 kt). These increases are partly offset by lower import forecasts for Portugal (-50 kt), Germany (-40 kt), Slovenia (-40 kt), Netherlands (-30 kt) and Denmark (-20 kt).Soybean imports are thus expected lower than in 2010/11 in the Netherlands (-0.6 Mt), Slovenia (-0.2 Mt), Portugal, UK (-0.1 Mt each), Greece (-70 kt) and Denmark (-25 kt), but higher than last year in Italy (+0.4 Mt) due to a fall in imports from third countries transhipped via Slovenia compared with last year, which impacts Italy’s level of direct imports.Soybean imports from the USA are thus expected down 0.8 Mt compared with 2010/11 at 2.4 Mt. Imports from Brazil are expected down 0.7 Mt at 4.4 Mt, and imports from Paraguay down 0.3 Mt at 2 Mt. By contrast, soybean imports are expected higher than last year from Canada (+0.4 Mt) and Ukraine (+0.7 Mt) due to the strong competitiveness of these origins since the start of the crop year.N.B: Subscribers to our online “EU trade with third countries” module can consult the full trade breakdown for 2011/12 and 2012/13 (for each

origin and destination) at our website www.strategie-grains.com.

Demand in other sectorsSoybean usage in animal feeds is expected at 1.1 Mt, the same level as in 2010/11. We forecast lower levels of animal sector demand in Spain and France (-150 kt and -50 kt respectively) but increases in Italy (+100 kt), Austria (+45 kt) and Romania (+25 kt).

Crop year 2012/13

ProductionSoybean production in the EU in 2012/13 is expected down 120 kt compared with 2011/12 at 1.2 Mt. The reduction mostly corresponds to a fall in Italy’s harvest to 0.65 Mt. Romania’s soybean harvest is estimated at 180 kt (+20 kt compared with 2011), Austria’s harvest at 120 kt (-10 kt) and France’s harvest at 115 kt (-10 kt).

Demand for crush usageGiven prices of soybean, soy oil and meal in Rotterdam for October 2012 (prices quoted April 20), the soybean crush margin for the new crop year is estimated at 41 €/t, up from just 9 €/t average in 2011/12 and 26 €/t average in 2010/11. Soybean crush margins in the new crop year should therefore be much better than at present. The new crop C&F price of soybean in Rotterdam is much cheaper than the old crop price (417 €/t compared with 458 €/t) whilst the new crop price of soy oil is higher than the old crop price

(1005 €/t compared with 995 €/t).We therefore forecast an increase in soybean crush in 2012/13 to 12.6 Mt, up 750 kt compared with 2011/12. This increase will mostly be centred on Italy (+150 kt), Netherlands (+130 kt), Portugal (+180 kt), and the UK (+80 kt). Crush volumes are also expected to rise slightly in Germany, Belgium, Spain and Romania.

Imports Given the rise in projected EU import requirements, we expect a 225 kt increase in imports from third countries to 11.95 Mt. However, world supply will not rise sufficiently to meet the totality of European demand (see below World market). Hence we forecast increased imports in the Netherlands (+180 kt), Portugal (+120 kt) and Slovenia (+90 kt) and Italy (+90 kt), but lower imports in Germany, because it will have sufficient opening stock to cover demand. We expect higher soybean imports than in 2011/12 from the USA (+0.8 Mt) but smaller volumes from Brazil (-0.2 Mt) and Paraguay (-0.5 Mt). Our forecast of the main exporters’ availabilities is given below in the world market section.

Demand in other sectorsSoybean usage in animal feeds is expected down again in 2012/13 (-120 kt) due to lower availabilities (high crush demand will mean there is less soybean available for animal feed usage). We currently estimate this demand at 1 Mt in 2012/13.

intra-Eu tradE

Trade volume in 2011/12 revised down – growth expected for 2012/13

Crop year 2011/12We estimate intra-EU soybean trade in 2011/12 at 1.5 Mt. It is expected down 320 kt compared with 2010/11 due to a smaller volume of transhipments from third countries via Slovenia to the rest of the EU. Slovenian soybean exports are expected down 220 kt compared with 2010/11. This mainly affects Italian imports (-80 kt). The Netherlands remains the largest soybean exporter in 2011/12 (815 kt) on account of its transhipping activities to other EU countries, followed by Belgium (220 kt) and Slovenia

(120 kt). Italy is expected to ship 85 kt of soybean to other EU countries this year.The main importers are: Germany (740 kt), Italy (150 kt), Netherlands (180 kt), Belgium (110 kt), Spain (50 kt), UK (45 kt) and France (40 kt). Customs data for February 2012 is now available for France, Czech Republic and Spain, and for January 2012 in the other countries. To reflect this, since last month we have decreased intra-EU soybean trade (-70 kt), notably with lower export forecasts for the Netherlands (-55 kt) and Slovenia (-40 kt).

Crop year 2012/13Given the rise in soybean imports from third countries in 2012/13, the quantities of soybean transhipped through EU ports to other parts of the Union are set to be higher than in 2011/12. We estimate intra-EU soybean trade up 330 kt in 2012/13 at 1.8 Mt. The countries registering the largest increases in exports to other EU destinations are the Netherlands (+140 kt), Slovenia (+110 kt, assuming that transhipments through Slovenia recover to the levels seen in 2010/11 and before) and also the central EU countries




Ger. 3 7 0 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 3 0 1 0 0 14 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36B/L 9 1 0 24 0 0 0 158 0 17 0 5 0 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 220

Den. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Spn. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7Fra. 1 6 0 8 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18

Gre. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Irl. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1Ita. 20 1 14 5 8 6 0 1 0 1 5 0 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 0 86

Neth. 679 95 1 3 2 0 3 0 0 25 4 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 814Por. 0 0 0 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31

U.K. 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10Aust. 12 2 0 1 1 0 0 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 1 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 38

Fin. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Swed. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Pol. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1Hun. 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 5 13 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 30Cz.R. 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2


Cyp. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Mal. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Rom. 17 0 0 0 0 1 0 10 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 49Bul. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1EU 742 110 23 48 37 6 7 150 183 7 45 22 7 6 6 26 17 4 0 4 10 5 0 0 22 4 1489


Ger. 2 7 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 1 0 0 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26B/L 10 1 0 26 0 0 1 158 0 16 0 3 0 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 221

Den. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Spn. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5Fra. 1 5 0 12 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21

Gre. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Irl. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1Ita. 25 1 13 5 9 3 0 1 0 1 4 0 2 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 0 81

Neth. 820 97 0 9 1 0 1 0 0 19 2 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 953Por. 0 0 0 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24

U.K. 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5Aust. 33 2 0 1 1 0 0 34 1 0 0 0 0 0 5 1 1 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 84

Fin. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Swed. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Pol. 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 32Hun. 1 7 0 0 0 0 0 9 9 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 33Cz.R. 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22


Cyp. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Mal. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Rom. 11 0 0 0 0 1 0 15 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 7 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 46Bul. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3EU 953 115 22 51 40 4 4 295 175 5 38 20 4 3 6 23 11 5 0 2 12 5 0 0 17 9 1816

Table 4.3: intra-EU soybean trade 2012/13 and 2011/12 October-September (kt)



Soybean2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Carry-in stocks 60.9 68.8 43.6Production 263.6 240.0 266.2

Trade 90.8 92.9 96.8Crush 222.7 230.5 238.8

Hum. and Ind. uses 18.1 19.5 20.2Other uses 14.9 15.2 15.5

Carry-out stocks 68.8 43.6 35.3stocks-to-use 27% 16% 13%

US $/t April-May Jul OctApr 19 March 22 Apr 19 Apr 19

Argentinean soybean 539 522 542Brazilian soybean Fob Paranagua 547 519 549 530

Soybean Fob US 546 526 550 515Ukrainian soybean 500 480

(+100 kt).Imports are expected up in Germany (+210 kt) and Italy (+145 kt).

N.B: Subscribers to our online “Intra-EU Trade” web module can consult the full breakdown of intra-EU soybean trade

(including recorded and projected volumes for each country) at our website strategie-grains.com.

world soybEan markEt

2011/12: sharp fall in stocks due to catastrophic harvest – 2012/13: extremely tight outlook for world market

new riSe for Soybean priCeS on world marketIn mid-January 2012, the price of US and Brazilian soybean was around 450 $/t (FOB). Since then, the drought that affected first Argentina, then Brazil, has led to a sharp fall in world soybean production in 2011/12 and prices on the world market have therefore risen. The US FOB soybean price was 546 $/t for May on April 20 (+20 $/t since March 19), whilst the Brazilian price was 547 $/t (+28 $/t). Argentinean soybean was quoted at 539 $/t (+17 $/t). North and South American soybean origins have therefore largely remained at parity for old crop.Ukrainian soybean was priced at 500 $/t FOB Black Sea (up from 480 $/t last month and 430 $/t FOB in mid-January). Hence Ukrainian soybean remains very competitive for export to EU and Mediterranean destinations. Ukraine has already exported 670 kt of soybean to the EU October 1 2011 through February 28 2012. For October 2012 delivery, US soybean is quoted at 515 $/t FOB compared with 546 $/t C&F Rotterdam (up from 531 $/t last month) and 530 $/t FOB for Brazilian soybean. For new crop soybean, the South American origins should lose competitiveness on the world market compared with US

soybean.

global Supply down by almoSt 16 mt in 2011/12World soybean production down by almost 24 Mt compared with 2010/11Soybean production has fallen sharply in the USA (-7.4 Mt to 83.2 Mt). In effect, conditions in at soybean planting time in the USA in 2011 were very unfavourable (extremely wet weather) and subsequently the weather was too hot and dry during the summer for optimum plant development. Soybean acreage and yield therefore both recorded steep declines in 2011 in the USA.In Brazil, the spring 2012 harvest (included in crop year 2011/12) is also expected down sharply (-9.3 Mt compared with 2010/11) due to the drought, which has become steadily worse since February: in addition to these harmful conditions, there was a heat wave during the critical phase of yield formation at the beginning of March. Brazilian soybean production is now estimated at 66 Mt, down 9 Mt compared with initial forecasts. Brazil’s harvest was 80% completed as of April 13.Production in Argentina (spring 2012) is also expected down, due to a drought from December through February. The return of rains in March has generated a small

improvement to the condition of the soybean plants, but most of the damage is irreversible. Argentina’s soybean harvest is therefore now expected at 45 Mt (-0.4 Mt since last month), down 3.9 Mt compared with 2010/11 and

down almost 4.5 Mt compared with initial forecasts. The agriculture ministry recently

published a harvest forecast of 42.9 Mt. However, with the harvest 29% completed as of April 12, the first volumes collected are particularly poor because the crops concerned suffered very severely from the drought in December and January. However, later-planted soybean was able to draw benefit from the more favourable conditions later on and the return of rains in February and March. We think that this part of the crop, which represents around 40% of total acreage, and has not yet been harvested, will have a correct yield and that this should prevent national production crashing too low. We will closely monitor this point in the coming weeks.Soybean production in Paraguay is revised down 1 Mt this month to 4 Mt, compared with 7.2 Mt last year. In Uruguay, production is forecast down 0.4 Mt to 1.6 Mt (this decline is less steep than elsewhere in South America because a sharp rise in acreage has offset the lower yield).Meanwhile in India, soybean production is estimated up 1.2 Mt to 11 Mt following good monsoon rains June through September. In the Black Sea countries (Ukraine and Russia), soybean production is also expected up substantially (+0.6 Mt in Ukraine to 2.3 Mt and +0.5 Mt in Russia to 1.7 Mt) due to much higher acreage than last year and exceptionally high yields.Sharp growth in demand for soybean and higher world tradeGlobal demand for soybean is expected up 9.5 Mt in 2011/12 compared with 2010/11. This is mostly the result of increased demand for crush (+7.8 Mt) in response to the growth

Table 4.4: world soybean balance sheet October-September (Mt)

source: Stratégie grains

Table 4.5: FOB prices for main soybean origins dated 19/04/2012



255,7

265,2

274,5

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Argentina Brazil China USA2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Carry-in stocks 15.3 16.0 9.1 15.7 22.2 12.2 6.7 5.7 4.8 4.1 6.4 6.6Production 48.9 45.0 52.2 75.3 65.3 75.6 14.7 13.5 12.8 90.6 83.2 88.4

Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 53.2 58.4 62.2 0.4 0.4 0.4Exports 9.2 11.0 10.0 30.0 34.5 34.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 40.3 35.6 40.7

Crush 37.4 39.2 41.2 35.8 37.6 38.5 54.3 57.6 61.6 44.9 44.7 45.0Other uses 1.6 1.7 1.7 3.1 3.3 3.5 14.3 15.0 15.6 3.5 3.0 3.2

Carry-out stocks 16.0 9.1 8.6 22.2 12.2 12.0 5.7 4.8 2.4 6.4 6.6 6.5

Ukraine Russia2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Carry-in stocks 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3Production 1.7 2.3 2.4 1.2 1.7 1.7

Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.8 0.8Exports 1.0 1.3 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

Crush 0.6 0.7 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.5Other uses 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1

Carry-out stocks 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Total2010/11 3.7 5.5 5.4 5.1 3.2 3.5 3.9 4.6 4.3 5.4 4.5 4.1 53.22011/12 3.8 5.7 5.4 5.3 3.8 4.8 4.8 5.8 4.5 5.6 4.7 4.1 58.4

in demand for soymeal, especially in China, Southeast Asia and South America for use in animal feeds, and also higher demand for soy oil for human consumption and industrial usage.Soybean crush demand is expected up to the greatest extent in China (+3.3 Mt to 57.6 Mt). This estimate has increased by 0.6 Mt since last month to reflect import statistics for March, which showed a higher level of imports than previously expected. Soybean crush demand is also expected up sharply in Brazil (+1.8 Mt to 37.6 Mt) and Argentina (+1.8 Mt to 39.2 Mt). To reflect the latest data on soybean crush in Argentina, we have increased projected demand by 0.1 Mt since last month. The statistics indicate a 3 % growth in crush volume for October-February compared with the same months a year earlier. We are working on the basis of 6 % increase in crush activity for the remainder of the crop year, with the arrival of the new soybean crop generating a 5 % increase across the entire crop year. In the USA, soybean crush is expected down slightly (-0.14 Mt compared with 2010/11) to 44.7 Mt.

According to the latest official statistics, crush demand fell slightly compared with last year (-0.3 % for October-March). We have slightly increased our estimate for crush demand in the USA since last month (+0.2 M).In Canada, data on soybean crush up to April 11 2012 indicate an increase in crushing activity (+1.9 %) since the start of the crop year. We maintain a forecast for growth at this rate through the end of the crop year (total volume expected up to 1.5 Mt).Crush volume is also expected up slightly in India (+0.4 Mt) and Ukraine (+0.1 Mt) due to higher availabilities, but down in the EU (-0.46 Mt, see above). We estimate world soybean crush volume at 230 Mt in 2011/12.Demand for soybean for human consumption (non-crush demand) is also expected up in 2011/12 (+1.3 Mt compared with last year); demand in other sectors (animal feeds, seeds and losses) is expected up 0.4 Mt.As a result of this rise in demand, world soybean trade is expected up 2 Mt to almost 93 Mt

in 2011/12. Soybean exports are expected up from Argentina (+1.8 Mt to 11 Mt), Brazil (+4.6 Mt to 34.5 Mt), Paraguay (+0.4 Mt to 5 Mt), and Ukraine (+0.36 Mt to 1.34 Mt), but lower than last year from the USA (-4.7 Mt to 35.6 Mt) and Canada (-0.2 Mt to 2.7 Mt). Soybean imports are expected up sharply in China (+5.2 Mt to

58.4 Mt) but will be lower in the EU (-0.8 Mt to 11.7 Mt). China has already imported 28.88 Mt (October-March), up 9 % compared with the same period in 2010/11.Global soybean stock expected down sharply in 2011/12We estimate global stock at the start of crop year 2011/12 up 7.9 Mt compared with 2010/11 but production is set to be 23.6 Mt lower. Consequently, global supply is expected down 15.7 Mt in 2011/12 whilst demand is forecast to grow by 9.5 Mt. Hence world soybean stocks at the end of 2011/12 are expected down 25.2 Mt to 43.6 Mt, which equates to just 16.4 % of total annual demand, down from 26.9 % in 2010/11. This fall in ending stock is substantial and world soybean balance sheet is now tight. The outlook is therefore rather fragile and this situation should continue to support world prices until the end of the crop year.In addition competition with maize for acreage for the autumn 2012 harvest will continue through the coming weeks: the ratio between the soybean price for November 2012 and the maize price for December 2012 on

Graphic 4.2: world demand for soybean (kt)

Table 4.6: soybean balance sheets for main exporting and importing countries - October-September (Mt)


source: Stratégie grains based on various sources


Table 4.7: soybean balance sheets for Ukraine and Russia - October-September (Mt)

Table 4.8: monthly soybean imports for China (Mt)

source: CNGOIC until March 2012, then Stratégie grains’ forecast



10

11

12

13

14

15

May

201

1 Ju

n 20

11

Jul 2

011

Aug

201

1 Se

p 20

11

Oct

201

1 N

ov 2

011

Dec

201

1 Ja

n 20

12

Feb

2012

M

ar 2

012

Apr

201

2 M

ay 2

012

Nov 12

May 12 1,5 1,7 1,9 2,1 2,3 2,5 2,7 2,9

Feb 2010

May 2010

Aug 2010

Nov 2010

Feb 2011

May 2011

Aug 2011

Nov 2011

Feb 2012

May 2012

Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12

2,25

the CBOT has become more and more favourable to soybean: it is now 2.53 (as of April 20), up from 2.33 last month (see graphic 4.4). This is much higher than the neutral point of 2.25 (see graphic 2.3) above which the margins for soybean growers are better than for maize. Hence just as the planting season for maize began in the USA, the soybean/maize price ratio turned rapidly away from maize to favour soybean. The ratio should stay high until the end of May to allow a sharp increase in soybean acreage, with the US soybean price remaining high through the coming weeks so that soybean can retain the acreage gained recently. This will concern new crop soybean prices in the USA but will probably also impact 2011-crop prices.

world outlook extremely tight for 2012/13 deSpite poSSible produCtion growth Global soybean production expected up 26.3 Mt to 266.2 MtBased on the current soybean/maize price ratio on the CBOT for end-2012, we envisage a 0.2 Mha growth in soybean acreage in the USA to 30.5 Mha (or 75.4 million acres planted). We are working on the basis that 2 % of prospective plantings (published on 31 March by the USA) will change from maize to soybean. With yield back in line with the norm, soybean production should increase by 5.2 Mt to 88.4 Mt in 2012. In Argentina and Brazil, soybean area is expected up for the spring 2013 harvest (crop year 2012/13) following this year’s drought. The rise in acreage will also be driven

by the very tight situation on the South American soybean markets for the end of 2011/12. Yields should return to normal assuming favourable weather conditions next year. Production in Argentina is therefore expected up almost 7.2 Mt to 52.2 Mt and production in Brazil up 10.3 Mt to 75.6 Mt. The harvests in Uruguay and Paraguay should also return to more traditional levels, with a growth of 3 Mt in Paraguay to 7 Mt and 0.3 Mt in Uruguay to 1.9 Mt. In Ukraine, we forecast a small increase in production to 2.4 Mt, but flat production for Russia. In India, if the 2012 monsoon rains are in line with the norm, as expected, production should fall due to lower acreage by 0.2 Mt to 10.8 Mt. In China, the trend of declining soybean plantings with farmers transferring other crops, especially maize, is set to continue and production is therefore expected down 0.7 Mt to 12.8 Mt. World soybean production is therefore expected up 26.3 Mt in 2012/13 to 266.2 MtNew increase in demand for soybean and world trade in 2012/13Global demand for soybean is expected up 9.3 Mt in 2012/13 compared with 2011/12. This is mostly the result of higher crush demand (+8.3 Mt), increased demand for human consumption (+0.8 Mt) and increased demand for other usages (+0.3 Mt). Crush demand is set to increase sharply in China (+4 Mt, or +7 %) in response to growing demand for food oils caused population growth, although mostly in response to a surge in demand in the animal feed sector (expanding pig production). China’s economy is set to continue growing sharply, despite the slightly slower growth rates seen in recent months. To meet the growing world demand for soymeal, we expect crush volumes to increase in Argentina (+2 Mt to 41.2 Mt), Brazil (+0.9 Mt to 38.5 Mt), the USA (+0.3 Mt to 45 Mt), India (+0.3 Mt to 9.8 Mt) and Russia (+0.2 Mt to 2.5 Mt). Against this backdrop of increasing demand, global soybean trade is now expected up 3.9 Mt to 96.8 Mt. We forecast that Chinese imports will increase by 3.8 Mt. Argentina will not be able to export much more than 10 Mt (exports lower than in 2011/12) and Brazil could ship 34 Mt of soybean (-0.5 Mt compared with 2011/12, due to low opening stock and despite the

sharp growth in production). Despite these lower export forecasts, soybean stocks will fall to very low levels (in historical terms) in both these countries, equating to just 16 % of annual demand. In the USA, soybean exports could increase by 5.1 Mt to 40.7 Mt. This would generate US ending stock of 6.5 Mt, which is extremely low (7% of annual demand). Due to low opening stocks, Paraguay and Uruguay will not be able to export more than in 2011/12. Ukrainian exports are expected up 0.2 Mt to 1.5 Mt and Canadian exports up 0.4 Mt to 3.1 Mt.New reduction in global soybean stocks at end-2012/13Soybean stocks at the start of crop year 2012/13 are expected down 25.2 Mt whilst production is expected up 26.3 Mt. Global supply will therefore increase by 1.1 Mt in 2012/13, whilst demand is expected up 9.3 Mt. Thus global soybean stocks will once again decline, falling to 35.2 Mt for end-2012/13 (-8.3 Mt compared with 2011/12). This represents 12.8 % of total annual demand, compared with 16.4 % at end-2011/12. This decline in stocks is substantial. This level of stock will mean the world market faces a soybean deficit in 2012/13 and the outlook is therefore extremely tight. The US soybean price on the CBOT is currently 493 $/t for November 2012 (new crop) compared with 505 $/t for September 2012 (old crop). New crop prices are therefore 12 $/t lower than old crop. This price structure does not yet correlate with the tighter global outlook for 2012/13 than 2011/12: therefore world soybean prices (new crop) have a very sharp increase potential compared with the current

Graphic 4.3: world soybean prices (CBOT, $/bushel)

Graphic 4.4: soybean/maize price ratio in the USA for November/

December (CBOT)



price level. If global supply is estimated down compared with current forecasts, either due to an insufficiently large growth in acreage or bad

weather impacting the crop, the situation could turn explosive for soybean prices. By contrast, if production turned out better than currently

forecast (higher acreage, ideal weather conditions), this could reduce the expected price tension.

analysis of Ending stock and conclusion

2011/12: supply and demand in balance – 2012/13: tighter outlook for EU soybean

Crop year 2011/12EU opening stock is expected 0.11 Mt higher than in 2010/11. EU soybean production is expected up 0.14 Mt and imports down 0.8 Mt in crop year 2011/12. EU soybean supply is therefore expected down 0.5 Mt compared with 2010/11.Soybean crush volume is expected down 0.46 Mt and demand in animal feeds is expected stable; exports to third countries are expected down 0.04 Mt. Hence EU demand is forecast to decline by 0.5 Mt through crop year 2011/12.Ending stock 2011/12 should therefore remain stable at the same level as opening stock (1.3 Mt). This is slightly higher than the minimum stock required to comfortably supply the market until the next harvest arrives. The EU soybean balance sheet therefore has

a very small surplus. However, the surplus is divided between several countries and the domestic situations are not heavy in the least; supply and demand can therefore more realistically be classed as balanced. At the world level, the soybean market is tight: if soybean prices increase on the world market, this could lead to a fall in projected EU imports and hence soybean crush activity in the EU.

Crop year 2012/13Soybean production in the EU is expected down 0.12 Mt and imports up 0.23 Mt compared with 2011/12. Soybean supply in the EU is therefore set to increase by 0.07 Mt compared with 2011/12.Crush volume is expected up 0.75 Mt due to better crush margins on 2012-crop soybean (based on current new crop prices). Demand in animal feeds is forecast down 0.07 Mt and

demand for human consumption down 0.06 Mt. Exports to third countries are expected up 0.02 Mt. Demand for soybean in the EU is expected up 0.64 Mt in crop year 2012/13.Soybean stocks will therefore decrease by 0.57 Mt to 0.8 Mt on September 30 2013. This is less than the minimum stock required to supply the market at the end of the crop year. The EU soybean market is therefore facing a deficit of around 0.2 Mt. In effect, world supply will not be sufficient to cover the totality of projected import demand: this will lead to a reduction in soybean stocks on both the EU and world markets. New crop soybean prices on the world market therefore have a sharp increase potential: in turn this could lead to lower soybean crush margins, which could result in a lower forecast for soybean crush in the EU in 2012/13 compared with the level we currently envisage (12.6 Mt).


Eu vEgEtablE oil markEt

Eu vEgEtablE oil markEt

30

Apr.-May July OctoberPalm oil 1178 1178 1173

Soy oil 1303 1309 1315Rape oil 1294 1300 1313

Sun oil 1330 1320 1310

• 2012/13 vegetable oil production and imports revised down since last month in EU

• Oils price increases generate reduction in expected demand in EU in 2011/12 and 2012/13 since last month

• EU oil stocks indicate supply and demand close to balance for 2011/12 but tight for 2012/13

• World oils market very tight in 2011/12 and 2012/13: prices have potential for additional increase,

especially soy oil

PricEs comParison

Prices of all oils have increased, with soy oil rising to the smallest extentVegetable oils prices up between 10 $/t (soy oil) and 65 $/t (sun oil) since last monthSince March 20, the prices of the vegetable oils have all increased, for all deliveries, to varying degrees. The palm oil price rose by 40-45 $/t for deliveries April through October from 1135 to around 1175-1180 $/t C&F Rotterdam. The rape oil price rose by 25 $/t for July and around 40 $/t for October. The soy oil price rose by 17 $/t on spot/near-term and by 26 $/t for July, but by « only » 12 $/t for October. The sharpest increase was for the sun oil price, which increased by 65 $/t on the spot market, 50 $/t for July and 60 $/t for October, hitting 1330 $/t, 1320 $/t and 1310 $/t respectively for these delivery dates (see table 5.1). Vegetable oil prices were driven upward by the unfavourable outlook for soybean production in 2011/12 in South America and by the sharp decline in the estimates for rapeseed production and rape oil production in 2012/13. Meanwhile, in New York as of April 19, the crude oil price dipped slightly to 102 $ per barrel (-5 $ compared with last month), but

it nevertheless remains high and therefore supports the prices of the vegetable oil.

Changes in competitive price spreads between veg. oils On spot deliveries, sun oil is now the most expensive of the vegetable oils, its price having risen sharply since last month (+70 $/t). The sun oil price therefore underwent a major upward correction, but despite this we maintain our production forecasts (see EU sun oil supply and demand) due to sun oil’s very competitive position for the first half of the crop year. Palm oil is quoted at 1178 $/t for spot/near-term and remains the cheapest oil, above which is rape oil at 1294 $/t and soy oil at 1303 $/t. Rape oil’s competitiveness therefore improved.For July, sun oil is the most expensive (at 1320 $/t) followed by soy oil (1309 $/t) and rape oil (1300 $/t). Palm oil remains the cheapest (at 1178 $/t) but for July delivery also, rape and soy oil’s competitiveness have improved.For October, soy oil is at virtually the same price (1315 $/t) as rape oil (1313 $/t) and sun oil (1310 $/t). The spreads between the prices

have narrowed markedly since last month (soy oil was 25 $/t more expensive than rape oil and 50 $/t more expensive than sun oil). These 3 oils are now almost at parity for the end of 2012. Hence for the new crop year, none of these oils offers a particular advantage compared with the others. Meanwhile palm remains the cheapest for this delivery period.

Conclusion:Compared with last month, we have revised down the total vegetable oil consumption in the EU for 2012/13. This decrease mostly stems from rape and palm oils, as well as -to a lower extent- sun oil. Considering its improving competitiveness, we have revised slightly up the consumption of soy oil (see below).

raPE oil suPPly and dEmand in thE EuStocks expected stable in 2011/12 — Sharp decline in stock for end-2012/13 with tight outlook for new crop year

Crop year 2011/12

EU rape oil supplyFew changes in our rape oil production forecasts (+20 kt compared with last month). It is forecast to decrease for the second consecutive year, due to the smaller rapeseed crush volume in the EU (see EU rapeseed supply and demand) and is still forecast at 9 Mt in 2011/12, down

300 kt compared with 2010/11. On the basis of the latest import statistics (February 2012), as well as considering the global export supplies, we keep our forecast of a growth in rape oil imports to around 580 kt (no change since last month; +90 kt compared with 2010/11). As last month, we estimate imports at 250 kt from United Arab Emirates (+70 kt

compared with last year), 140 kt from Canada (+35 kt), 130 kt from Russia (+30 kt) and 60 kt from other countries.

Demand for human consumption and industrial usage

Internal demandWe have slightly reduced our estimates for

Table 5.1: vegetable oil prices in Rotterdam on 20/04/12 ($/t)


Eu vEgEtablE oil markEt31

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

Jul-

10

Sep

-10

Nov

-10

Jan-1

1

Mar

-11

May

-11

Jul-

11

Sep

-11

Nov

-11

Jan-1

2

Mar

-12

May

-12

Jul-

12

Sep

-12

Rape oil Fob Rotterdam

Soy oil Fob Rotterdam

Palm oil C&f Rotterdam

Sun oil Fob Rotterdam

FAME 0°C Fob ARA

10/11 11/12 12/13Production 9.36 9.04 8.61

Imports 0.49 0.58 0.80Exports 0.21 0.22 0.16

Consumption 9.62 9.42 9.43of which biodiesel* 5.99 5.67 5.74

others 3.64 3.75 3.69Stock changes 0.01 -0.03 -0.19

10/11 11/12 12/13Production* 9.50 9.77 10.41from rape oil 5.95 5.65 5.71from soy oil 0.86 0.84 1.03

from palm oil 0.60 0.58 0.67from sun oil 0.21 0.27 0.37

from other feedstock 1.88 2.43 2.62Imports 2.50 3.02 3.46

Consumption 12.00 12.79 13.87

Graphic 5.1: biodiesel and vegetable oil prices (€/t)

internal demand for rape oil since last month. We forecast demand in 2011/12 at 9.43 Mt (-20 kt compared with last month; -190 kt compared with 2010/11). The reduction since last month concerns demand in the biodiesel sector, (-30 kt) to 5.67 Mt, sharply down compared with 2010/11 (-0,3 Mt). Demand for food usages is revised up a little since last month (+10 kt) to 3.75 Mt (+120 kt compared with 2010/11). As mentioned last month, the fall in rape oil usage in biodiesel production is linked to rape oil’s less competitive position against other vegetable oils and against recycled products, which now benefit in several countries from the “double-counting” mechanism. Nevertheless the biodiesel sector remains the main consumer of rape oil in the EU.

Demand for biodiesel productionBiodiesel consumption in the EU is forecast to reach 12.8 Mt in 2011/12, down 200 kt compared with last month. It is now expected up 0.8 Mt compared with 2010/11 (following a growth of +0.6 Mt between 2009/10 and 2010/11). Higher incorporation rates

in several EU countries and higher diesel consumption are behind these increases. The increase in availabilities of renewable certified raw materials, which until last year had been relatively scarce, and thus restrained consumption, is now also permitting demand to grow at a faster rate. Given the level of imports so far (statistics available as of February 2012) and the forecasts for biodiesel production in Argentina and Southeast Asia, we forecast EU biodiesel imports at 3 Mt (-0,1 Mt compared with last month), up 0.5 Mt compared with last year. We have slightly reduced estimated EU biodiesel production in 2011/12 to 9.8 Mt (-0.2 Mt compared with last year; +0.3 Mt compared with 2010/11). The countries for which we have reduced our biodiesel consumption forecasts since last month are Spain (-70 kt: imports higher than expected), Netherlands (-50 kt, lower growth forecast for production at Neste Oil plant), Italy and Portugal (-30 kt and -20 kt respectively, adjustments to reflect import and demand levels).Compared with 2010/11, the following countries are set to record the largest growths

in biodiesel production: UK (+265 kt, mainly biodiesel produced from recycled

materials), Netherlands (+200 kt at the Neste Oil and Rosendaal plants) and Germany (+130 kt, due to growth in demand for B100).Biodiesel production is expected flat or up just slightly in most other countries, with the exceptions of Italy (-200 kt) and Spain (-40 kt), due to strong competition from biodiesel imported from third countries, and Poland (-55 kt,

higher intra-EU imports). As mentioned last month, the growth in biodiesel production in Europe is mainly secured as a result of increased usage of recycled products. Usage of sun oil is also expected up, whereas demand for palm oil is expected flat; demand for soy oil is expected to decrease (-80 kt). Usage of rape oil in biodiesel production is now expected at 5.67 Mt (-300 kt), notably in Italy (-130 kt), Germany (-90 kt), Poland (-50 kt), Austria (-40 kt) and several other countries. Nevertheless, rape oil usage is expected up in the UK (+65 kt).Usage of the 4 main veg. oils (rape, soy, palm and sun) for biodiesel production in 2011/12 is now expected at 7.35 Mt (-0.13 Mt since last month and compared with 7.72 Mt in 2010/11).

EU exports to third countriesEU rape oil exports to third countries are revised up very slightly (+10 kt compared with last month and with last year) to 225 kt, reflecting a small increase in exports to Norway.

Crop year 2012/13

EU rape oil supplyEU rape oil production is now expected down sharply in 2012/13 to 8.61 Mt (-430 kt). Since last month we reduced our production forecast by 540 kt due to the lower forecast for rapeseed crush in the EU (see EU rapeseed supply and demand) on account of extremely low crush margins at the start of 2012/13. The volume of rape oil imports is now expected up by 220 kt at 800 kt (+100 kt compared with last month). Compared with 2011/12, we forecast growth for imports from Canada (+180 kt) and the USA (+25 kt). Imports from Russia and the other Black Sea countries are expected at an almost flat level (+10 kt in total) with imports from the United Arab Emirates unchanged at 250 kt.

Demand for human consumption and industrial usage

Internal demandAs a result of the rise in the price of rape oil (see earlier section: Prices Comparison), we have reduced projected rape oil usage in the EU in 2012/13 to 9.43 Mt (-270 kt compared with last month) on account of the narrower spread between the prices of soy oil and rape oil. Internal demand is now forecast flat vs. 2011/12. Rape

Table 5.3: supply and demand balance sheet for biodiesel in 2010/11,

2011/12 and 2012/13 (Mt) –July/june

Source: Stratégie grains (* esterification only)

Table 5.2: supply and demand balance sheet of rape oil in 2010/11, 2011/12

and 2012/13 (Mt) –July/June

Source : Stratégie grains (* esterification + veg. oil direct usage)



oil usage in biodiesel production is expected up slightly at the expense of demand for food usage and demand in other industrial sectors given that availabilities will be insufficient to cover the totality of demand in all sectors.

Demand for biodiesel production Biodiesel usage in the EU is expected up 1.05 Mt in 2012/13 to 13.9 Mt. Since last month, we have reduced our forecast by 150 kt following on from the lower forecast for 2011/12 (carried over into 2012/13) and also to reflect the reduced availability of oils.As in 2011/12, higher diesel consumption and higher incorporation rates in several EU countries are behind the growth in demand. We forecast increased biodiesel usage in several countries: UK (+200 kt), Germany (+180 kt), Italy (+130 kt) and Spain (+120 kt). Biodiesel imports are now expected up 450 kt in 2012/13; this increase corresponds almost entirely to imports from Southeast Asia (+300 kt from Indonesia and +100 kt from Singapore). Despite the rise in biodiesel production in Argentina, its exportable surplus will not increase because the government intends to prioritise internal consumption (we are working on the basis that the mandatory incorporation rate for biodiesel in standard diesel will rise from the current rate of 7% to 10% in Argentina at the start of 2013). Brazil’s biodiesel production will also be consumed locally. Biodiesel production in the EU27 in 2012/13 is now estimated at 10.4 Mt, up around 0.6 Mt compared with 2011/12 but down 600 kt compared with last month, this reduction reflecting the fall in vegetable oil availabilities in the EU and globally. Production is expected up sharply in the Netherlands (+145 kt) due to increasing output capacity at the Neste Oil factory in Rotterdam (capacity of 800 kt). Production is also forecast to increase in Spain (+130 kt); domestic production is expected to benefit from the introduction of quotas (similar to the scheme operated in France). This new regulation was drafted at the end of 2010 but not published until now on account of fierce criticism from the government of Argentina.

The Argentinean government’s nationalisation of the oil company YPF, a subsidiary of Respol, has caused a stir in Spain and a speedier introduction of the quota system (approved by the Council of Ministers on April 20 2012, and published on the Official Journal on April 21) as a trade retaliation measure. We will come back to this point in the coming months.Production is also expected up in Italy (+145 kt) following the sharp fall in 2011. Smaller increases are also forecast for France, UK and several other countries. This growth in biodiesel production will generate increased demand for soy oil (+0.2 Mt) and sun oil (+0.1 Mt, in France, Spain, Central Europe), as well as palm oil (+0.1 Mt mainly in the Netherlands) and rape oil (+0.07 Mt).

N.B: Subscribers to the “EU Biofuels” module on our website www.strategie-grains.com may consult the full list of biofuel refineries and production capacities, and a breakdown of biofuel output volumes by country and crop year.

EU exports to third countriesEU rape oil exports to third countries are expected down slightly in 2012/13 at 165 kt (-65 kt), with a small reduction in exports to Norway (-30 kt) and some other countries.

analySiS of ending StoCkS and ConCluSion

Crop year 2011/12Little change since last month: EU rape oil production in 2011/12 is forecast to decline by 0.3 Mt and imports are expected up 0.1 Mt, as some EU requirements will need to be filled from abroad. Despite this, EU rape oil supply is expected down around 0.2 Mt in 2011/12. Demand for rape oil in 2011/12 is revised down 50 kt this month and is now expected down 200 kt compared with 2010/11, due to the reduction in usage in biodiesel production (demand transferred to recycled oils and fats). Demand for human consumption has increased slightly. Rape oil stock on June 30 2012 is forecast practically stable compared with a year

earlier (-30 kt compared with opening stock) at 590 kt (unchanged vs. last month). This corresponds to around 3 weeks worth of demand; supply and demand can therefore be considered balanced. Rape oil prices in the EU therefore have no intrinsic potential for increase or decrease and price movements should henceforth be determined by the other vegetable oils (palm, soy and sun). Given that the prices of these oils have increase potentials (see below World oils market), we think that the rape oil price could rise in order to prevent a surge in additional demand through the end of the crop year.

Crop year 2012/13Rape oil stocks in the EU are expected down sharply (-190 kt) and are now expected at 390 kt. This equates to a stock deficit compared with requirements estimated at 150 kt. The outlook for the new crop year is therefore tight and rape oil prices have an increase potential in order to generate a shift in demand to other vegetable oils. However, the balance sheets for the other main vegetable oils in 2012/13 are also showing tight supplies that will be unable to meet the totality of potential demand. Hence it is very likely that prices of all the oils will increase in order to reduce demand for vegetable oils, in the biodiesel and/or food sectors. Given this context, the level of soybean plantings in the USA this spring and later in the year in South America (September-October) will be critical: if prices continue rising (notably relative to the maize price) and if acreage turns out higher than we currently forecast, availabilities would increase and this would offer some respite to the tight global vegetable oils markets. Nevertheless, at this stage, harvest outcomes are far from secure. Also, demand projections are highly dependent on the economic outlook and demand for oils could decrease in response to deteriorating economic conditions, generating a less tight outlook. Lastly, the crude oil price will remain a critical determining factor for vegetable oil prices and especially for biodiesel consumption.



10/11 11/12 12/13Production 2.72 3.12 3.11

Imports 0.81 0.71 0.68Exports 0.16 0.19 0.17

Consumption 3.35 3.52 3.66of which biodiesel 0.21 0.27 0.37

Stock changes 0.01 0.12 -0.04

sun oil suPPly and dEmand in thE EuEU sun oil stocks set to increase in 2011/12 and fall slightly in 2012/13

Crop year 2011/12

EU sun oil supplyIncreased availability for sunseed crush (see EU sun seed supply and demand) will generate a 0.4 Mt rise in sun oil production in 2011/12 compared with 2010/11, equalling a growth of around 15%. Sun oil production in the EU in 2011/12 is thus expected at 3.1 MtEU sun oil imports are expected down around 0.1 Mt in 2011/12 to 0.7 Mt, with the extra EU availability sufficient to meet the additional demand. Russia, Ukraine and Argentina will remain the principal suppliers of sun oil to the EU in 2011/12, although import volumes from Ukraine will be much lower (-220 kt to 320 kt), offset by higher imports from Russia (+80 kt to 100 kt) and Argentina (+20 kt to 100 kt).

Demand for human consumption and industrial usageDemand for sun oil in the EU is expected at 3.5 Mt in 2011/12, up 0.17 Mt compared with 2010/11. This increase will mostly result from sun oil’s very attractive position compared with rape oil and soy oil for use in the first half of 2011/12. Demand for food and industrial usage (excluding biodiesel) is forecast to rise from 3.1 Mt in 2010/11 to 3.3 Mt in 2011/12.We estimate that sun oil usage in biodiesel production will increase by 60 kt in 2011/12; this represents an increase in sun oil’s share of total raw material demand in the biodiesel sector from 2% in 2010/11 to 3% in 2011/12. However, the current price of sun oil puts it at a disadvantage for the remainder of the crop year. Sun oil is currently priced at 1010 €/t FOB Rotterdam, compared with 990 €/t for soy oil and rape oil. For July, it is priced at 1005 €/t, compared with 1000 €/t for soy oil and 990 €/t for rape oil. The rise in sun oil usage is therefore mostly confined to the first half of the crop year.

N.B: Subscribers to the EU Biofuels module on our website www.strategie-grains.com may consult the full list of biodiesel refineries and production capacities, and a breakdown of biofuel output volumes by country and crop year.

EU exports to third countriesHigher demand for sun oil, combined with sun oil’s competitiveness against rape oil and soy oil, generated a sharp rise in world sun oil trade in the first half of 2011/12, with especially strong exports from Russia and Ukraine. However, EU sun oil is not very competitive compared with sun oil from Ukraine, Russia and Argentina (it is around 120 €/t dearer on average for August-April compared with Argentinean and Black Sea sun oil) and internal EU demand is rising sharply. Given these factors, and to reflect that latest trade data (exports to February 2012) we project a very small growth in EU sun oil exports to third countries to 0.2 Mt (+20 kt compared with 2010/11).

Crop year 2012/13

EU sun oil supplyEU sun oil production is expected to remain very high in 2012/13. We envisage a small decrease of 50 kt (due to lower crush volumes): production should nevertheless remain at around 3 Mt. Imports are expected stable at 700 kt, and as in 2011/12 will mainly arrive from Ukraine, Russia Argentina.

Demand for human and industrial usageEU demand for sun oil in 2012/13 is expected to increase for the second consecutive year, to 3.66 Mt, up 0.14 Mt compared with 2011/12; this increase will stem from the rise in biodiesel production and from the growth in sun oil’s share of raw material demand for biodiesel production. Sun oil’s share of total raw material demand in the biodiesel sector will increase from 3% in 2011/12 to 4% in 2012/13. Sun

oil usage is therefore expected up to 0.37 Mt in 2012/13 (+0.1 Mt). Demand for food usage is expected up 0.04 Mt, replacing rape oil, supplies of which will be in decline.

EU exports to third countriesWe estimate EU sun oil exports on the world market at 170 kt, down 20 kt compared with 2011/12. This level is nevertheless high compared with past years. The reduction compared with 2011/12 is partly due the fall in EU supply, in addition to the very strong competitiveness of Ukrainian and Russian oils next year.


Crop year 2011/12EU27 sun oil production is forecast to increase in 2011/12 for the second consecutive year (+0.4 Mt). Imports are expected down slightly (-0.1 Mt). Carry-in stocks are forecast at virtually the same level as 2010/11 (+10 kt). Sun oil supply is therefore now forecast up 0.3 Mt. Meanwhile domestic EU demand is forecast up 0.2 Mt whilst exports to third countries are expected almost flat. We estimate EU sun oil ending stock up slightly by around 0.12 Mt, which means that there will be a surplus of 110 kt over the year-end required stock. The EU sun oil price will therefore need to fall relative to the other oil prices before the end of the crop year, in order for sun oil to capture some demand currently allotted to the other oils.

Crop year 2012/13EU27 sun oil production in 2012/13 is expected down slightly (-50 kt); imports are expected down 30 kt. Carry-in stock is expected 120 kt higher than in 2011/12. Sun oil supply in 2012/13 is therefore now forecast at the same level as in 2011/12.Demand for sun oil in the EU is expected up 0.15 Mt, with demand in the biodiesel sector increasing by 100 kt and demand for other usages rising 0.4 Mt. Exports to third countries are expected down slightly (-20 kt).Ending stock therefore is now expected down 40 kt compared with opening stock and supply and demand for sun oil in the EU is forecast

Table 5.4: supply and demand balance sheet for sun oil in 2010/11, 2011/12

and 2012/13 (Mt) –August/July

Source: Stratégie grains



10/11 11/12 12/13Production 2.24 2.14 2.27

Imports 0.91 0.78 0.69Exports 0.46 0.43 0.34


Stock changes 0.00 0.06 0.00

balanced in 2012/13. The sun oil price has no intrinsic potential for either increase or decrease relative to the other oils in 2012/13. However,

price movements will be influenced by price changes for the other vegetable oils in Europe and for the sun oil price on the world market,

which has an increase potential for 2012/13.

soy oil suPPly and dEmand in thE EuSupply and demand balanced for 2011/12 and 2012/13

Crop year 2011/12

EU soy oil supplySoy oil production in the EU in 2011/12 is expected at 2.14 Mt (the same as last month) and down 100 kt compared with the level of 2010/11, due to lower crush volumes in the EU. This will be the lowest level for soy oil production in the last 10 years. Estimated EU soy oil imports are revised down 60 kt this month to 0.78 Mt. Imports are now expected 120 kt lower than in 2010/11, mostly due to lower shipment volumes from Argentina (to 360 kt, down 100 kt compared with 2010/11).

Demand for human and industrial usageIndustrial and food uses (excluding biodiesel) are forecast to decline by 180 kt in 2011/12 due to soy oil’s loss of competitiveness against palm and sun oil (the latter was cheaper than soy oil for much of the crop year, although this has now changed). Non-biodiesel industrial and food uses are currently estimated at 1.6 Mt.Meanwhile, soy oil usage in biodiesel production in 2011/12 is revised down 50 kt this month to 0.85 Mt. This is mostly on account of lower biodiesel production in Spain and Italy. Total demand for soy oil in the EU is revised up 150 kt this month to 2.43 Mt in 2011/12, down 270 kt compared with 2010/11.

EU exports to third countriesNo change since last month: EU sun oil exports are forecast to fall slightly compared with 2010/11 to 0.43 Mt (-25 kt).

Crop year 2012/13

EU soy oil supplyEU soy oil production in 2012/13 is estimated at 2.27 Mt, up 140 kt compared with 2011/12 (and +30 kt compared with last month). This rise corresponds to the fact that crush margins in 2012/13 (on the basis of current new crop prices) will be better than the average margins in 2011/12. Meanwhile, soy oil imports are expected to fall to 0.7 Mt due to reduced global export availabilities (especially in Argentina).

Demand for human and industrial usageDomestic demand for soy oil in the EU is expected to grow slightly in 2012/13 to 2.62 Mt (+ 50 kt compared with last month). This growth corresponds to soy oil use in biodiesel production in the EU (expected up in Spain, Italy and France) and reflects current spreads between the different oils (see Prices comparison). The prices of soy oil, rape oil and sun oil are all fairly close: none will therefore be especially favoured over any of the others unless prices evolve from these levels; therefore all oils should see demand for biodiesel usage increase (each oil’s share of total raw material usage for biodiesel production will therefore not change greatly compared with 2011/12).

EU exports to third countriesEU soy oil exports in 2012/13are expected down 90 kt to 0.34 Mt. As mentioned last

month, this will mostly relate to exports to countries in Africa.


Crop year 2011/12Soy oil production in the EU is expected down 100 kt compared with 2010/11; imports are forecast down 120 kt. With carry-in stock very slightly lower than in 2010/11, soy oil supply is expected down 225 kt in 2011/12 (-60 kt compared with last month). Soy oil usage is revised down 150 kt since last month and is now expected at 2.43 Mt in 2012/13 (-265 kt compared with 2010/11). The reduction is shared between the biodiesel sector (-80 kt) and the non-biodiesel industrial and food sector (-180 kt). Ending stock is estimated up very slightly to 245 kt (+90 kt compared with last month; +60 kt compared with 2010/11).Supply and demand for soy oil in the EU are therefore now expected in balance, with ending stock equating to 10% of annual demand. Soy oil prices in the EU will therefore evolve in response to the movement of world prices, which have an increase potential.

Crop year 2012/13Soy oil production is expected to rise in 2012/13 (+140 kt) but imports will fall by 0.1 Mt. EU soy oil supply will therefore increase only slightly. Due to rising biodiesel production, demand for soy oil is expected up 200 kt in 2012/13 to 2.62 Mt. The lower forecast for EU exports should permit ending stock to remain at 245 kt in 2012/13, meaning that supply and demand is balanced.

Table 5.5: supply and demand balance sheet for soy oil in 2010/11, 2011/12 and 2012/13 (Mt) –October/

September




10/11 11/12 12/13Production 0.00 0.00 0.00

Imports 5.06 4.84 5.05Exports 0.19 0.19 0.19


Stock changes 0.01 -0.09 -0.02

Palm oil suPPly and dEmand in thE EuImports revised up in 2011/12 and 2012/13

Crop year 2011/12

EU palm oil supplyBased on current import statistics (February 2012 for imports from third countries) and world palm oil supply, we have slightly reduced our forecast for EU palm oil imports in 2011/12 to 4.84 Mt (-40 kt). Palm oil imports are now expected 0.22 Mt less than in 2010/11. Palm oil remains the cheapest of the 4 main oils although its price has nevertheless risen by 40 $/t since last month. Projected imports from Indonesia are revised down this month, although it remains the main supplier of palm oil to the EU (2.18 Mt). We also forecast imports from Malaysia (1.32 Mt), New Guinea (600 kt) and South America (around 200 kt).

Demand for human and industrial usageDemand for palm oil in the EU is revised down 50 kt this month to 4.74 Mt. This fall relates to palm oil usage in biodiesel production (usage at the Neste Oil factory in Rotterdam revised down to reflect Dutch palm oil import statistics). Palm oil usage in biodiesel production is now forecast at almost the same level as in 2010/11.

Crop year 2012/13

EU palm oil supplyGiven expected world availability and EU import needs in 2012/13, we currently forecast

a growth in EU palm oil imports to 5.05 Mt (-0.22 Mt compared with last month). Imports are nevertheless still expected higher than in 2011/12 (+0.2 Mt) with increased imports from Indonesia (+0.3 Mt) and Malaysia (+ 0.2 Mt) at the expense of other origins.

Demand for human and industrial usageOn the basis of the first new crop prices available and expected requirements for the biodiesel sector, we estimate demand for palm oil in 2012/13 at 4.88 Mt. This is 0.2 Mt less than forecast last month (biodiesel production revised down) but 140 kt more than in 2011/12. The increase relates to palm oil usage in biodiesel production (+90 kt to 0.67 Mt) and demand in other food/industrial sectors (+50 kt).


Crop year 2011/12We still forecast a fall in palm oil stocks at the end of 2011/12 compared with 2010/11 to 300 kt (-90 kt compared with 2010/11, against -70 kt forecast last month). This stock level corresponds to 6% of estimated demand and therefore supply and demand can be considered balanced. The palm oil price in the EU has no potential for increase or decrease relative to the other oil prices. The world soy oil market is tight in 2011/12 and the world soy oil price therefore has an increase potential.

This could contribute to a rise in the palm oil price.

Crop year 2012/13We estimate palm oil ending stock in 2012/13 at the same level as in 2011/12, with the rise in imports (+0.22 Mt) offsetting the increase in internal demand (+0.15 Mt) and the fall in carry-in stock (-0.1 Mt). Supply and demand are expected in balance and as in 2011/12, potential palm oil price movements will be closely linked to developments on the world oilseeds and palm oil markets. As for soy oil and rape oil, the world balance sheet for palm oil is expected to tighten in 2012/13 and prices will have an increase potential in the new crop year. Prices will also be influenced by changes in the crude oil price, which are relatively difficult to predict due to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the uncertainties surrounding the European economic outlook for the coming months.

vEgEtablE oils - global suPPly and dEmand

2011/12: supply and demand just balanced – 2012/13: very tight oils market, especially for soy oil

priCe CompariSonS between the different oilS dated 20/04/2012Since last month, world vegetable oil prices have risen but prices have not moved in the same manner as prices in the EU. The sharpest rise for spot/near-term concerns Brazilian soy oil FOB (+80 $/t). Argentinean soy oil FOB has also risen sharply (+60 $/t).

Black Sea sun oil rose by 68 $/t FOB and by 65 $/t FOB Rotterdam; Argentinean sun oil rose by 55 $/t FOB. The price of palm oil rose less sharply: +25 $/t to 1134 $/t FOB Malaysia.The soy oil price rose sharply in response to the news of poor yields in those areas where the harvest has started in Brazil and Argentina. The sun oil price followed this upward trajectory. Despite this, sun oil price remains cheaper than soy oil at 1198 $/t compared with 1234 $/t for

soy oil (-36 $/t ex-Argentina).After these price movements, the hierarchy of vegetable oil prices on the world market is not much different than last month for spot/near-term. Palm oil remains the cheapest at 1134 $/t FOB Malaysia, followed by sun oil at 1198-1213 $/t FOB Argentina and FOB Ukraine. Soy oil follows at 1234 $/t ex-Argentina. Lastly, rapeseed oil remains the most expensive at 1294 $/t FOB Rotterdam.

Table 5.6: supply and demand balance sheet for palm oil in 2010/11, 2011/12

and 2012/13 (Mt) –July/June




Palm oil Soy oil Rape oil Sun oil Total 4 oils2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Carry-in stocks 5,4 6,6 6,3 6,1 4,8 3,5 1,6 1,8 1,8 1,8 2,0 2,9 15,0 15,2 14,5Production 47,9 50,6 53,0 40,1 41,5 43,0 23,3 22,6 23,2 12,6 15,2 15,2 123,9 129,8 134,4

Trade 37,6 38,8 40,1 9,1 7,7 8,3 3,5 3,5 3,7 4,4 5,9 5,6 54,6 56,0 57,7Industrial use 11,0 13,2 14,5 7,5 8,5 9,3 7,2 7,2 7,1 1,3 1,5 1,7 27,0 30,4 32,7

Food use 34,2 35,7 36,9 33,7 34,2 34,3 15,9 15,3 16,1 11,0 12,8 13,1 94,8 98,0 100,3Other uses 1,6 1,9 1,9 0,2 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 1,9 2,1 2,2

Carry-out stocks 6,6 6,3 5,9 4,8 3,5 2,7 1,8 1,8 1,8 2,0 2,9 3,3 15,2 14,5 13,7stocks-to-use 14% 12% 11% 12% 8% 6% 8% 8% 8% 17% 20% 22% 12% 11% 10%

Prices for July-December deliveries are not yet quoted for Argentinean or Ukrainian sun oil, or palm oil FOB Malaysia; hence we are unable to establish an accurate price hierarchy for the main oils traded on the world market for this period.

Supply and demand juSt balanCed in 2011/12 but with lower Soy oil and palm oil StoCkS but higher Sun oil StoCkS

Sharp rise in world sun and palm oil production and small increase for soy oil but reduction for rape oil We forecast a sharp rise in global vegetable oil production in 2011/12 of almost 6.1 Mt to 129.8 Mt, comprising increased production of palm oil (+2.64 Mt to 50.6 Mt), soy oil (+1.2 Mt to 41.5 Mt) and sun oil (+2.7 Mt to 15.2 Mt). By contrast, rape oil production is forecast down 0.67 Mt to 22.6 Mt in 2011/12 (see EU rapeseed supply and demand – world market).The large growth in sun oil production reflects excellent crush margins on sunseed and higher sunseed availabilities. Sun oil production is expected up in Russia (+1.4 Mt to 3.5 Mt), Ukraine (+0.5 Mt to 3.7 Mt) and the EU (+0.4 Mt to 3.1 Mt). Production is also forecast to increase slightly in South Africa, Turkey and Pakistan, but to fall slightly in Argentina.The increase in soy oil production mainly concerns China (+0.6 Mt to 11.4 Mt), Argentina (+0.3 Mt to 7.5 Mt), Brazil (+0.3 Mt to 7.1 Mt) and India (+0.1 Mt to 1.7 Mt); production is expected down slightly in the USA (-0.1 Mt to 8.5 Mt) and the EU (-0.1 Mt to 2.1 Mt) due to lack of availability for seed crushing.

Palm oil production is expected significantly higher in 2011/12 compared with 2010/11 in Indonesia (+1.4 Mt to 25 Mt) and Malaysia (+0.3 Mt to 18.5 Mt) with smaller rises for Thailand (+0.2 Mt) and Colombia (+0.2 Mt).Against this production increase, demand for the 4 main vegetable oils (palm, soy, rape and sun) in 2011/12 is expected up 6.9 Mt in 2011/12 compared with 2010/11 to 130.6 Mt. This surge is mainly associated with increasing demand for human consumption (+3.2 Mt to 98 Mt) notably in the countries of Southeast Asia. Economic growth in these countries is boosting consumers’ purchasing power and generating greater consumption of vegetable oils, either consumed directly or indirectly via the agri-food industry. We estimate that world demand for vegetable oils will rise by +3.4% in 2011/12 (demand sharply up in the emerging economies but flat or down slightly elsewhere). This will mostly benefit consumption of palm oil (+1.5 Mt), soy oil (+0.5 Mt) and sun oil (+1.8 Mt). Sun oil is especially competitive this year and is replacing rape oil and soy oil in many importing countries. Demand for rape oil for food usages is set to fall slightly in 2011/12 (-0.6 Mt) due to its high price since the start of the crop year and flat supply.Industrial demand for all oils combined, including usage in biodiesel production, is also expected to increase in 2011/12 to 30.4 Mt (+3.4 Mt compared with 2010/11). Oils usage in biodiesel production is expected down 0.4 Mt to 7.4 Mt in the EU (all oils combined) but up 0.6 Mt in Argentina, up 0.1 Mt in Brazil, up 0.4 Mt in the USA (mainly soy oil in these 3 countries) and up 0.1 Mt in Canada (mainly canola oil). These rises stem from higher rates of mandatory biodiesel incorporation into standard diesel in 2011 and/or 2012 in these countries. Palm oil usage for biodiesel production is expected up 0.1 Mt in Malaysia,

up 0.2 Mt in Singapore and up 0.4 Mt in Indonesia.Thus global industrial demand for palm oil is expected up 2.2 Mt in 2011/12, demand for soy oil up 1 Mt, demand for rape oil up 0.1 Mt and demand for sun oil up 0.15 Mt. Demand for vegetable oils in other sectors, notably animal feeds, is forecast up very slightly (+0.3 Mt) at 1.6 Mt.

Global oils trade expected up in 2011/12With the growth in world demand, global trade in the 4 main vegetable oils is forecast to grow by 1.4 Mt in 2011/12 to 56 Mt, with higher import demand in China (+1.4 Mt), India (+1.2 Mt), Egypt (+0.25 Mt), USA (+0.2 Mt), Turkey (+0.1 Mt) and Pakistan (+0.1 Mt). Import needs are also forecast to increase in various countries in Southeast Asia, North Africa and the Middle East. By contrast we forecast lower imports than last year in the EU (-0.3 Mt) and Iran (-0.3 Mt). Palm oil trade is therefore forecast to rise by 1.2 Mt, due to this oil’s very competitive price position in 2011/12. World trade in sun oil is forecast to increase by 1.5 Mt, supported by much more attractive prices than last year, which are allowing this oil to capture demand share from soy oil and rape oil in European and Mediterranean destinations. By constrast, trade in soy oil is set to be lower than last year (-1.4 Mt) and trade in rape oil flat compared with 2010/11.

Small reduction to world oils stocks at end-2011/12Global carry-in oils stocks are now forecast 0.2 Mt higher than at the start of 2010/11. World production of oils is expected up 5.9 Mt. Consequently, world vegetable oils supply is forecast to grow by 6.2 Mt in 2011/12 whilst demand is forecast to rise by 6.9 Mt.

Table 5.7: world supply and demand for the main oils (Mt)

source: Stratégie grains and USDA



March May July October

US $/t 4/20 4/20 4/20 4/20

Argentinean soy oil 1234 1234 1229 1243Brazilian soy oil Fob Paranagua 1257 1243 1250 1252

Soy oil Fob Rotterdam 1303 1309 1309 1315Rape oil Fob Rotterdam 1294 1300 1300 1313

Argentinean sun oil 1198 1205Ukrainian sun oil Fob Black Sea 1213

Sun oil Fob Rotterdam 1330 1330 1320 1310Palm oil Fob Malaysia 1134

Global ending stocks will therefore contract by 0.7 Mt during 2011/12 to 14.5 Mt, which equates to 11.1 % of total demand, down from 12.3 % in 2010/11. Supply and demand of world vegetable oils is therefore forecast balanced. However, this equilibrium is possible on account of high sun oil stocks (+0.9 Mt to 2.9 Mt) whilst stocks of soy oil are expected down 0.8 Mt to 2.7 Mt and palm oil stocks down 0.3 Mt to 6.3 Mt. The global soy oil market is therefore tighter than last year (with ending stock equalling 8 % of annual global demand, down from 11.6 % last year); the palm oil market is also tighter (with ending stock down from 14 % of annual demand at end-2010/11 to 12.4 %). The rape oil market ends the year in a similar fashion to 2010/11 with ending stock equalling 8 % of annual demand end-2011/12, the same as in 2010/11.The world soy oil price therefore has an increase potential relative to the other oils prices. Sun oil in particular could capture additional demand on the world market if its price were to decrease compared to soy oil price (the spread between these two oils’ prices has increased from -32 to -36 $/t since last month, but it should increase further to ensure that sun oil demand remains strong). The palm oil price could also increase compared with its current level given the low stock forecast for end-2011/12.Crude oil prices will meanwhile continue to exert great influence on vegetable oils prices in the coming months: the crude oil price is currently high because of the disagreement between Iran and the international community (mainly the European Union, United States and Israel). If this conflict continues and/or intensifies, higher crude oil prices could push up vegetable oils prices. By contrast, if the European economic crisis worsens in 2012 demand for all raw materials could decrease, including crude oil and hence vegetable oils;

this would push down all the vegetable oil prices. We are currently working on the basis of a projected growth rate of -0.5 % in the EU in 2012, in line with the latest IMF forecasts.

greater Supply will not be SuffiCient to meet inCreaSe in global demand for Vegetable oilS in 2012/13

New growth for global vegetable oils production in 2012/13Global vegetable oil production is expected up sharply by 4.6 Mt in 2012/13 to 134.4 Mt. This increase comprises growth of 2.4 Mt for palm oil to 53 Mt, mostly in Indonesia (+1.6 Mt to 26.6 Mt) and Malaysia (+0.5 Mt to 19 Mt), 1.5 Mt for soy oil to 43 Mt and 0.65 Mt for rape oil to 23.2 Mt. Sun oil production is expected flat at 15.2 Mt in 2012/13. In terms of demand, we project higher industrial vegetable oils usage at 32.7 Mt (+2.3 Mt), demand for human consumption at 100.6 Mt (+2.3 Mt) and demand for other usage (including animal feeds) at 2.2 Mt (+0.1 Mt).The growth in industrial demand comprises: +1.3 Mt for palm oil, +0.85 Mt for soy oil, +0.1 Mt for rape oil and +0.2 Mt for sun oil. Most of this increase will be generated by increased biodiesel production across the world (especially in Argentina, Brazil, USA, Southeast Asia, EU). Demand for food usage is expected up +1.1 Mt for palm oil, +0.1 Mt for soy oil, +0.8 Mt for rapeseed oil and +0.3 Mt for sun oil.

New increase in global vegetable oils trade in 2012/13Given the sharp increase in projected world demand, total global vegetable oils trade is expected up 1.7 Mt in 2012/13 to 57.7 Mt. Import requirements on the world market are expected up 1.3 Mt for palm oil, +0.6 Mt for soy oil and +0.2 Mt for rapeseed oil. World

trade in sun oil is projected to decrease by 0.3 Mt, but nevertheless remains very high in historical terms. Indeed, our sun oil trade forecast could be revised up if sun oil’s competitiveness improves against soy oil and rapeseed oil (which we will know once new crop prices for these oils become available).

We estimate sharp rises in 2012/13 for vegetable oil imports in India (+0.9 Mt, all oils combined), the EU (+0.3 Mt), USA (+0.1 Mt), Pakistan (+0.1 Mt), and Egypt (+0.2 Mt) but lower import needs in China (-0.3 Mt), Iran (-0.1 Mt) and Turkey (-0.1 Mt) due to higher domestic crush activity compared with 2011/12.Vegetable oils exports are therefore expected up from Argentina (+0.1 Mt), Brazil (+0.3 Mt), USA (+0.3 Mt), Malaysia (+0.5 Mt) and Indonesia (+0.6 Mt).

Sharp reduction for global vegetable oils stocks at end-2012/13, especially for soy oilGlobal carry-in oils stock for 2012/13 is expected down 0.7 Mt compared with 2011/12. World production of oils is expected up 4.6 Mt. Consequently, world vegetable oils supply is forecast to grow by 3.9 Mt in 2012/13 whilst demand is forecast to rise by 4.6 Mt. Global ending stocks are therefore expected down 0.8 Mt to 13.7 Mt, which equates to 10.1 % of 2012/13 annual global demand, down from 11 % forecast for end-2011/12. The outlook for the world vegetable oils market in 2012/13 will therefore be tighter than in 2011/12. However, tight supply will be most keenly felt on the soy oil market: stocks are expected down 0.8 Mt to just 2.7 Mt (ending stock as a percentage of annual demand down from 8.1 % in 2011/12 to 6.2%). The year-end situation for palm oil and rapeseed oil will also be tighter than in 2011/12: palm oil stocks are expected down 0.4 Mt at 5.9 Mt (11.1% of annual global demand compared with 12.4% in 2011/12) and rapeseed oil stocks are now expected stable at 1.8 Mt (7.6% of annual global demand compared with 8% in 2011/12). By contrast, sun oil stock is set to increase by 0.4 Mt to 3.3 Mt (22% of annual global demand). The global sun oil balance sheet is therefore comparatively heavy. Given these outlooks, the soy oil price has a significant increase potential whilst the sun oil price has a decrease potential in order to generate a growth in demand on the world market. In effect, soy oil is at present just 10 $/t more expensive delivered October 2012 than the current Argentinean spot, and 5 $/t cheaper than the current Brazilian spot price: current delivered October prices therefore do not yet appear to reflect the tighter situation

Table 5.8: FOB prices of the main oils ($/t)



10/11 11/12 12/13Production 14.32 14.30 13.99

Imports 7.26 6.91 7.21Exports 1.02 1.03 0.87


others 12.81 12.75 12.75Stock changes 0.02 0.07 -0.25

for soy oil forecast for the end of 2012/13. Meanwhile the palm oil price is not expected

to decline much in 2012/13 from its current level given the projected decline in stocks in

2013. Indeed, palm oil prices could increase slightly.

Eu vEgEtablE oil markEt: conclusion

2011/12: EU supply and demand balanced - 2012/13: market set to tighten

Crop year 2011/12Table 5.9 shows our supply and demand balance sheets for the 4 main vegetable oils used in the EU (rape, sun, soy and palm). Total vegetable oil production in the EU is estimated up very slightly this month to 14.3 Mt (+30 kt with increased rape oil production offsetting lower sun oil production). Imports are revised down (-80 kt compared with last month, mainly palm oil). Total EU vegetable oils supply is revised down 50 kt this month and is now forecast 0.29 Mt less than in 2010/11: this is mostly due to a 0.35 Mt reduction in imports to 6.91 Mt with domestic production is expected almost flat (-20 kt with lower production of rape and soy oils almost fully offset by higher sun oil production).The fall in imports corresponds to lower imports of palm oil (-0.22 Mt) and sun oil (-0.1 Mt, in view of the volumes already imported and the rise in EU production).

Since last month we have revised down demand for vegetable oils in the EU to 20.11 Mt in 2011/12 (-0.24 Mt). This represents a reduction of 0.42 Mt compared with 2010/11, mainly in the biodiesel sector, where demand has transferred to other raw materials (see Rape oil supply and demand — demand for biodiesel production). Human/industrial demand (excluding biodiesel) is now expected down very slightly (-60 kt) on account of the low economic growth forecast for the EU (based on the IMF forecast published January 2012). However, this overall fall masks a rise in demand for sun oil (+110 kt) at the expense of the other oils for non-biodiesel human/industrial usage.Thus following these modifications, we now forecast a small rise in EU vegetable oil stocks at the end of 2011/12 (+120 kt). The situation is slightly less tight although this level of ending stock remains very low and prices have no

potential for decrease, especially whilst the world oils market is tight. Nevertheless, our import forecasts remain highly dependent on the world market and uncertainty surrounding availability levels could still cause prices to go either up or down. Soybean planting outcomes in the USA and the South American soybean harvest (not yet know with any certainty) will have an major impact on the world oilseeds markets: if the South American harvests are better than currently forecast, and conditions for soybean planting in the USA are perfect, the markets could be less tight. However, in the contrary, the price of vegetable oils in the EU could increase again. Price movements will also remain highly dependent on the crude oil price and changes in the global economic outlook: in the event of a new economic crisis, crude oil prices could fall; if political turmoil in the Middle East intensifies, the crude oil price would rise, with upward impacts on the prices of all agricultural commodities and especially the vegetable oils.

Crop year 2012/13Total vegetable oils production in the EU in 2012/13 is estimated at 14 Mt, down 0.3 Mt compared with 2011/12. Since last month we have reduced this production forecast by 0.45 Mt (mainly due to the decline in projected rapeseed crush). Imports of the 4 main oils are expected to increase to 7.2 Mt in 2012/13 (+0.3 Mt compared with 2011/12, offsetting the lower domestic production). We forecast higher imports of palm oil and rape oil but lower imports of soy oil and sun oil. With oil carry-in stock slightly higher, total supply of vegetable oils in the EU should thus remain almost stable compared with 2011/12 (+50 kt). Compared with last month, we have reduced

estimated demand for oils by 0.55 Mt to 20.59 Mt. This level of demand is still 0.48 Mt more than in 2011/12. The increase mostly stems from growing demand in the biodiesel sector, which is now estimated at 12.75 Mt (demand for human consumption and other usages is expected stable given that economic growth is set to stagnate). As mentioned earlier, this increase in biodiesel demand will be divided between soy oil (+0.23 Mt; it has become more competitive since last month because its price rose less sharply than those of the other oils), palm oil, rape oil and sun oil (around +50/100 kt each). Contrary to the situation last month when we forecast vegetable oil ending stock at the same level as opening stock, we now envisage a reduction in stock of around 250 kt compared with opening stock. Stocks compared with requirements should continue to decrease, indicating that the outlook will tighten. New crop prices have increased by between 12 $/t (soy oil) and 60 $/t (sun oil) and are now at practically the same levels as old crop prices (indeed higher in the case of soy oil and rape oil). Part of the required price increase has therefore already now happened, but we believe that prices have an additional increase potential in order to further squeeze demand, because the balance sheets for 2012/13 are tighter than for 2011/12, at both the EU and world levels.

Table 5.9: EU supply and demand balance sheet for the 4 main

vegetable oils * 2010/11, 2011/12 and 2012/13 (Mt)

* rapeseed, sun, soy and palm


Eu mEal markEt

Eu mEal markEt

39

kt 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13Argentina 10670 11356 10800 10140

Brazil 8492 9225 9750 9040United States 1033 452 339 408

Others 526 646 344 430Total 20721 21680 21233 20018

US $/t May June Aug./Sept. Oct./Dec.Soymeal Argentina Fob Up River 456 461 436 424

Soymeal Brazil Fob Paranagua 434 436 428 395Soymeal CBOT 441 n.a 430 397

Soymeal Rotterdam Fob 506 498 494 481Sunmeal Argentina Fob 202

Sunmeal Russia (Caucasus) ExW n.aSunmeal Ukraine ExW 189

• Oilmeal availability and demand in EU revised down for 2011/12

• Sunmeal takes large share of overall meals demand in 2011/12

• Small increase in oilmeal competitiveness compared with grains in – tight outlook for soymeal in new

crop year

suPPly of oilmEals in thE Eu2011/12: Sharp growth in sunmeal production but lower soymeal availabilities – 2012/13: soymeal imports expected to fall

Crop year 2011/12

Soymeal (October-September)Soymeal imports from third countries are estimated at 21.2 Mt in the EU in 2011/12. This estimate takes account of custom statistics (to February 2012) and the competitiveness of soymeal for inclusion in industrial animal feeds (see below). Soymeal imports are expected down 0.5 Mt compared with 2010/11; this decrease is particularly pronounced in the Netherlands (-1.2 Mt) and reflects the sharp decline in EU demand for meals; a high proportion of oilmeals consumed on the EU market are indeed transhipped to other countries via Dutch ports. We also forecast lower import volumes in Spain (-0.2 Mt), Denmark (-0.1 Mt), UK (-0.1 Mt) and Slovenia (-0.1 Mt). By contrast, imports are expected up slightly compared with 2010/11 in France (+0.3 Mt), Poland (+0.2 Mt), Italy and Greece. Due to lower soybean crush in 2011/12 in the EU, soymeal production is expected down 0.4 Mt to 9.3 Mt; this is largely due to lower supply in the Netherlands (-0.4 Mt), as mentioned earlier, and in Portugal (-0.1 Mt). Supply of soymeal in the EU is expected down 1.5 Mt in crop year 2011/12 compared with the level of 2010/11.

Rapemeal (July-June)Rapemeal supply is expected down sharply compared with 2010/11 due to the steep fall in rapeseed crush activity in the EU; we forecast a total decline in rapemeal production of 0.6 Mt, mainly in France (-300 kt), Germany (-200 kt) and Poland (-100 kt). Imports will only partly offset this reduction in rapemeal availability. Rapemeal imports are expected up mainly in Spain (+100 kt) and Republic of Ireland (+100 kt). Total EU rapemeal imports are expected up by around 0.5 Mt. Total rapemeal supply is forecast around 0.1 Mt down compared with 2010/11.

Sunmeal (August-July)The sharp rise in sunseed crush in the EU in 2011/12 will generate a sharp growth in EU sunmeal production (+0.7 Mt to 4.3 Mt). Also, with high availabilities in Ukraine and Russia, sunmeal imports are expected up (+0.3 Mt compared with 2010/11) to 3.5 Mt. Thus sunmeal supply is expected up 1 Mt in the EU in 2011/12.

Crop year 2012/13

Soymeal (October-September)EU imports of soymeal from third countries are set to decrease again in 2012/13 and we currently estimate these at 19.6 Mt (-1.2 Mt

compared to 2011/12). This decline stems from the less attractive competitive position of soymeal against grains for inclusion in industrial animal feeds based on new crop prices and from our analysis of global availabilities in 2012/13 (see below). We forecast sharp falls in the volume of soymeal imports in Italy (-0.3 Mt), Spain (-0.2 Mt), France (-0.2 Mt) and Portugal (-0.2 Mt). Domestic soymeal production in the EU is expected up slightly in 2012/13 due to a better crush margins compared with the current situation; soymeal production is expected up 0.6 Mt at 9.9 Mt. Supply of soymeal in the EU in 2012/13 is therefore expected to be slightly lower than in 2011/12 (-0.6 Mt).

Rapemeal (July-June)Due to the slump in rapeseed crush volumes forecast for 2012/13, we estimate that rapemeal production will decrease by 0.56 Mt in 2012/13 to 11.5 Mt. Imports are also expected lower than in 2011/12 (-0.1 Mt). Supply of rapemeal in the EU in 2012/13 is therefore expected to fall by 0.7 Mt compared with 2011/12.

Sunmeal (August-July)Sun meal production is expected at 4.3 Mt, almost the same level as 2011/12; it will remain high for another year due to high sunseed

Table 6.1: soymeal imports in the EU27 (Mt)

Table 6.2: prices of the main soymeal and sunmeal origins dated 23/04/12 ($/t)


Eu mEal markEt40

Mt 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013Tot. cat. pig pou Tot. cat. pig pou Total cat. pig pou Total cat. pig pou

Mar 12 Apr 12 Mar 12 Apr 12Germany 20.6 6.1 9.1 5.4 22.0 6.4 9.9 5.7 22.0 22.1 6.5 9.9 5.7 22.0 22.1 6.5 10.0 5.6Belg.-Lux 6.6 1.2 3.8 1.5 6.7 1.3 3.8 1.5 6.5 6.5 1.3 3.6 1.5 6.4 6.4 1.3 3.5 1.5Denmark 4.2 0.9 2.8 0.5 4.3 0.9 2.8 0.5 4.3 4.0 0.9 2.6 0.5 4.2 4.0 0.9 2.6 0.5

Spain 16.8 3.7 8.7 4.5 16.7 3.7 8.6 4.5 16.7 16.7 3.6 8.6 4.4 16.7 16.7 3.6 8.6 4.4France 19.2 4.9 5.8 8.5 19.7 5.2 5.8 8.7 19.4 19.3 5.1 5.6 8.6 19.4 19.3 5.0 5.5 8.8Greece 1.9 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.9 0.5 0.8 0.7 1.9 1.9 0.5 0.8 0.7 1.9 1.9 0.4 0.8 0.7Ireland 3.3 2.1 0.7 0.5 3.4 2.2 0.7 0.5 3.5 3.5 2.3 0.7 0.5 3.6 3.6 2.3 0.7 0.5

Italy 12.4 3.6 3.2 5.5 12.4 3.5 3.3 5.6 12.2 12.2 3.4 3.2 5.6 12.2 12.2 3.5 3.2 5.6Netherl. 13.0 3.4 5.9 3.6 12.9 3.4 5.9 3.5 12.8 12.8 3.4 5.9 3.5 12.8 12.8 3.4 5.9 3.6Portugal 3.1 0.8 0.9 1.4 3.0 0.8 0.9 1.4 3.0 3.0 0.7 0.8 1.4 2.9 2.9 0.7 0.8 1.4U. King. 12.9 4.9 1.6 6.5 13.1 4.9 1.6 6.5 13.0 13.0 4.9 1.7 6.5 13.1 13.0 4.9 1.7 6.5Austria 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.5 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.5 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.5Finland 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.3 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.3 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.3 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.3Sweden 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.5 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.6 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.6 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.6Poland 7.1 0.7 1.5 5.0 7.2 0.7 1.5 5.0 6.9 6.9 0.7 1.3 4.9 6.8 6.8 0.7 1.3 4.9

Hungary 3.8 0.5 1.5 1.7 3.6 0.5 1.5 1.7 3.6 3.6 0.5 1.4 1.7 3.6 3.6 0.5 1.4 1.7Czech Rep. 2.4 0.5 0.9 1.0 2.3 0.5 0.9 1.0 2.2 2.2 0.5 0.8 0.9 2.1 2.1 0.5 0.7 0.9

Slovakia 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2Estonia 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1

Latvia 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1Lithuania 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.3

Slovenia 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.3Cyprus/Malta 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1

Romania 2.7 0.1 1.1 1.5 2.6 0.1 1.1 1.4 2.6 2.6 0.1 1.1 1.5 2.7 2.7 0.1 1.1 1.5Bulgaria 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.2 0.5EU 27 137.1 36.3 50.3 50.6 138.8 37.1 50.7 51.0 137.8 137.4 36.9 49.9 50.7 137.4 137.2 36.9 49.4 50.9

availability in the EU. Imports of sunmeal, notably from the Black Sea countries, are also

expected almost stable at 3.5 Mt. Sunmeal supply is therefore expected flat in 2011/12

and 2012/13 to 7.85 Mt.

Eu industrial fEEd Production 2011/12: sharp decline in industrial feed production - Feed production in 2012/13 expected down slightlyOur estimates for industrial animal feed production in crop year 2012/13 are based on forecasts for changes in livestock numbers and our supply and demand balance sheets for animal-derived productions (meat, milk, eggs) in the EU27. We estimate total industrial feed production in 2012/13 at 137.2 Mt, down 0.2 Mt compared with 2011/12. This small reduction relates to pig feed (-0.5 Mt to 49.4 Mt). Poultry feed is expected up slightly (+0.2 Mt to 50.9 Mt) and cattle feed stable at around 37 Mt. Industrial feed production in 2011/12 is estimated at 137.4 Mt, down slightly compared with the level of 2010/11 (-1.4 Mt).

Cattle feedTotal head of cattle in 2012/13 is estimated at 86.2 million (down from 87.1 million in

2011/12).In 2012/13, the number of dairy cows should continue to fall (-2 % compared with 2011/12) to 22.5 million, a very low level in historical terms.After an increase of 3 Mt in 2010/11 (+2.2 %), milk collection is again on an upward trend in 2011/12 (+1.8 % or +2.6 Mt), rising to 142.9 Mt. Nevertheless, this is significantly less than the quota (151.1 Mt). The only countries to exceed their milk quotas in 2011/12 are Luxembourg, Germany, Republic of Ireland, Netherlands and Austria. For 2012/13, the EU milk quota will increase by another 1 % (in the context of the CAP health check announced by the European Commission, which envisages a “soft landing” before milk quotas are phased out on March 1 2015). We forecast that milk collection

will increase by 0.6 % in 2012/13 to 143.7 Mt (which is nevertheless lower than the quota volume of 152.5 Mt). The majority of countries will see their collection volumes increase, except Romania. Given that the number of dairy cows is expected down in 2012/13, the increase in the collection volume will stem from a rise in milk yield, in line with the growth seen in recent years.We therefore expect EU cattle feed production to remain close to the level of 2011/12 at 36.9 Mt (the same as in 2010/11).

Pig feedPig numbers continued to decline through 2011 to 148.1 million head in total. This reduction concerns most EU countries although not Germany, Greece, Republic of Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Latvia,

Table 6.3: changes in industrial animal feed production in EU countries July-June


Eu mEal markEt41

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

100

2002

20

03

2004

20

05

2006

20

07

2008

20

09

2010

20

11

total livestock

dairy herd

100 = December 2002

130 000

135 000

140 000

145 000

150 000

155 000

2006

/200

7

2007

/200

8

2008

/200

9

2009

/201

0

2010

/201

1

2011

/201

2

2012

/201

3

kt

milk marketing year

Milk collection uota

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98

100 102

Dec

-200

3 A

ug-2

004

Apr

-200

5 D

ec-2

005

Aug

-200

6 A

pr-2

007

Dec

-200

7 A

ug-2

008

Apr

-200

9 D

ec-2

009

Aug

-201

0 A

pr-2

011

Dec

-201

1

breeding sows

total population

100 = December 2003

Graphic 6.1: changes in cattle numbers in the EU

Lithuania and Romania.We envisage a further reduction in the total number of pigs in 2012, with the number of pigs weighing 20 kg or over falling by 2.4 million compared with 2011 to 90.2 million.Despite this fall, gross indigenous production (GIP) of pig meat in the EU rose by 2.3 % in 2011, due to increased productivity in the northern EU countries. For 2012 and 2013, we expect pig meat GIP to remain flat; demand is also expected flat. Based on these forecasts, we estimate pig feed production in 2012/13 down 0.5 Mt compared with 2011/12 at 49.4 Mt

(compared with 49.9 Mt in 2011/12 and 50.7 Mt in 2010/11).

Poultry feedIn 2011, GIP of poultry meat rose slightly in the EU, due to higher demand and rising exports to third countries. For 2012 and 2013, we envisage that GIP will remain flat, with a small increase in internal demand but lower exports.

With regard to egg production, the end of calendar year 2011 was marked by a sharp fall in egg production linked to the standardisation of battery farms in Europe (with new regulations beginning January 1 2012) under the European Commission’s Animal Welfare Directive. Egg production in the EU dipped by 3.4 % in 2011. We expect production to rise in 2012 (+0.7 %) and in 2013 (+2.1 %). Given this context, we estimate that poultry feed production will increase slightly in 2012/13 to 50.9 Mt (compared with 50.7 Mt in 2011/12 and 51 Mt in 2010/11).

consumPtion of mEals in animal fEEds in 2011/12Decline in competitiveness of meals on the end of the crop year

reCent priCe moVementS and ChangeS to CompetitiVe SpreadSSoymeal has been rather competitive compared to other energy-rich products since the start of crop year 2011/12. The ratio between the prices of soymeal and wheat in France (graphic 6.4) was between 1.5 and 1.7 from October through end-February and increases to 1.7-1.9 for March to September deliveries. The lower this ratio, the more advantageous it is to use soymeal in animal feed production. For example, in crop year 2009/10, the ratio was between 2.5 and 3.1; during this period, grain usage in industrial feeds were exceptionally high, mainly at the expense of oilmeals. However, although the ratio is at present fairly low and thus rather favourable to oilmeal usage in 2011/12, it is less so than

in 2010/11 and hence the competitiveness of the oilmeals against the cereals has deteriorated slightly compared with 2010/11.The soymeal price has risen sharply recently. April 18, soymeal at Lorient was trading at 388 €/t, having risen by 24 €/t since a month earlier; it is priced at 374 €/t for May, up 32 €/t since mid- March. This sharp rise in EU soymeal prices is largely due to the drought impacting the soybean crops in South America. Soymeal has therefore become less competitive for use in industrial feeds.Rapemeal has also been affected by the outlook for the soybean harvest as well as by the decline in expected rapemeal production because of deteriorating margins on rapeseed crush; the rapemeal price climbed to 247 €/t on April 18 at Antwerp from 232 €/t on February 21. It is quoted at 214 €/t for August,

up from 187 €/t last month.Sunmeal is currently quoted at 204 €/t in Gent for April, up from 181 €/t last month. This rise in sunmeal prices (+23 €/t) is therefore more pronounced than the increase for rapemeal (+15 €/t) and the same as the increase for soymeal (+24 €/t).

impaCt on oilmeal uSage

Soymeal (October-September)Soymeal consumption has been revised down 0.3 Mt since last month due to soymeal’s loss of competitiveness for the last months of the crop year. Demand for soymeal in the EU is now expected at 29.9 Mt for October-September 2011/12, down 0.9 Mt compared with 2010/11. This decline is mainly explained by the fall in total industrial feed production

Graphic 6.2: changes in milk collection in the EU compared

with quota

Graphic 6.3: changes in pig numbers in the EU


Eu mEal markEt42

0,9 1,1 1,3 1,5 1,7 1,9 2,1 2,3 2,5 2,7 2,9 3,1 3,3 3,5

July Sept. Nove. Janu. Marc. May

2009/10 2008/09 2010/11

2011/12 2012/13

Soymeal Rapemeal Sunmeal total2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

total CF F total CF FGermany 4,9 4,6 3,2 1,4 4,7 3,1 1,6 3,1 3,3 3,2 0,3 0,3 0,4 8,2 8,2 8,3

Belgium-Lux 1,0 0,9 0,7 0,2 1,0 0,7 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,2 0,2 0,1 1,4 1,4 1,5Denmark 1,8 1,7 0,9 0,9 1,7 0,7 0,9 0,7 0,6 0,7 0,3 0,3 0,3 2,8 2,6 2,6

Spain 4,3 4,1 2,5 1,6 3,9 2,4 1,4 0,6 0,5 0,5 0,8 0,9 0,9 5,7 5,6 5,3France 3,8 3,9 1,7 2,2 3,8 1,7 2,1 2,6 2,2 2,0 1,1 1,3 1,3 7,5 7,4 7,1Greece 0,5 0,5 0,3 0,2 0,5 0,3 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,6 0,6 0,6Ireland 0,4 0,4 0,2 0,2 0,4 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,0 0,1 0,1 0,7 0,7 0,7

Italy 3,7 3,6 2,9 0,7 3,4 2,8 0,6 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,9 1,0 1,0 4,7 4,7 4,5The Netherl. 2,3 2,2 2,1 0,1 2,1 2,1 0,1 1,2 1,1 1,1 0,5 0,6 0,6 4,0 3,8 3,9

Portugal 0,8 0,8 0,6 0,1 0,7 0,6 0,1 0,2 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,2 0,2 1,1 1,1 1,0United K. 2,6 2,6 1,4 1,2 2,6 1,3 1,2 1,3 1,3 1,3 0,5 0,5 0,5 4,4 4,4 4,4

Austria 0,5 0,5 0,1 0,4 0,5 0,1 0,3 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,7 0,7 0,7Finland 0,1 0,2 0,2 0,0 0,1 0,1 0,0 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,4 0,4 0,4Sweden 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,0 0,3 0,3 0,0 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,6 0,5 0,5Poland 1,7 1,8 0,7 1,0 1,7 0,7 0,9 0,7 0,7 0,7 0,9 1,1 1,0 3,4 3,6 3,3

Hungary 0,6 0,5 0,5 0,0 0,5 0,5 0,0 0,2 0,1 0,1 0,4 0,4 0,4 1,1 1,0 1,0Czech Rep. 0,5 0,3 0,1 0,2 0,4 0,2 0,2 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,0 0,1 0,0 0,8 0,7 0,7

Slovakia 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,0 0,1 0,1 0,0 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,3 0,3 0,4Estonia 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,1 0,1

Latvia 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,1 0,1Lithuania 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,0 0,1 0,1 0,0 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,2 0,2

Slovenia 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,2 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,2 0,2Cyprus/Malta 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,0 0,1 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,1 0,2 0,2 0,2

Romania 0,4 0,4 0,4 0,0 0,5 0,5 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,2 0,6 0,6 0,7Bulgaria 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,3

EU 27 30,7 29,9 19,3 10,6 29,3 19,0 10,3 12,5 11,8 11,7 6,7 7,8 7,8 49,8 49,5 48,8

Table 6.4: EU demand for soymeal, rapemeal and sunmeal (industrial animal feeds and on-farm feeds*) - October-September

*total demand is splitted for soymeal and for countries where this split can be estimated

in the EU animal sector and the small fall in the competitiveness of soymeal for use in industrial feeds. By contrast, on-farm usage is expected stable compared with 2010/11.

Rapemeal (July-June)Rapemeal usage is expected down 0.8 Mt compared with 2010/11 at 12 Mt, mostly on account of reduced availabilities. The sharp rise in the rapemeal price seen in recent weeks suggests that the remaining availabilities are dwindling.

Sunmeal (August-July)This is certainly not the case for sunmeal, the price of which resisted, until recently, following the hike in the soymeal price. Demand for sunmeal is estimated at 7.6 Mt in 2011/12, up 1 Mt compared with 2010/11 due to the very sharp growth in sunmeal availabilities in the EU.

Conclusion: total meal usageFor the sake of an easy comparison of total oilmeal consumption across different crop

years, our estimates for oilmeal consumption are converted to the October-September year for all three meals (see table 6.4). Total demand for meals has decreased sharply since last month due to soymeal’s loss of competitiveness for the last months of the crop year. Combined demand for the three meals is now expected down 0,3 Mt in the EU in 2011/12 compared with 2010/11, at 49,5 Mt. The reduction can mainly be explained, as mentioned earlier, by the reduction in animal sector requirements; however, we would also highlight the extent of decline has been reduced by the fact that there has been no increase in the supply of DDGS (spent grains

from ethanol production). Indeed, the supply of these products and hence consumption has remained flat this year whereas it increased by 0.7 Mt in 2010/11 due to the rise in ethanol production that year.

Graphic 6.4: soy/wheat price ratio in France


Eu mEal markEt43

Oct

. - S

ept.

2012

/13

prod

uctio

n

imports exports animal consump.

from

EU

27

from

third

co

untr

ies

supp

ly

to E

U 2

7

to th

ird

coum

poun

d fe

ed

on fa

rm

tota

l

dem

and

All. 2371 1757 1904 6032 1037 262 3120 1614 4734 6032Bel/L 267 753 547 1567 500 24 740 303 1043 1567Dan. 67 408 1374 1850 185 11 736 918 1654 1850Esp. 2180 135 1875 4190 251 82 2427 1431 3858 4190Fra. 437 684 2764 3885 93 29 1679 2083 3762 3884

Grè. 189 13 332 534 7 27 305 194 499 534Irl. 9 82 311 402 12 0 198 192 390 403Ita. 1417 221 1938 3576 135 8 2834 599 3434 3576

P.B. 1517 176 4440 6133 3875 113 2072 72 2144 6132Por. 521 144 118 782 100 1 592 88 681 782

U.K. 586 456 1586 2627 61 2 1339 1225 2565 2628Autr. 24 479 4 507 31 1 132 343 475 507Fin. 5 90 46 141 0 0 - - 141 141Suè. 8 37 214 259 0 0 - - 258 259Pol. 2 374 1337 1713 58 3 705 947 1652 1713

Hon. 55 426 3 484 17 0 - - 468 485Tch. 31 375 13 419 3 0 198 217 415 418Slq. 20 118 0 138 3 0 - - 136 139Est. 0 33 0 34 1 0 32 0 32 33Let. 0 68 8 76 9 44 - - 24 76Lit. 13 96 34 144 36 1 106 0 106 143Sln. 0 11 695 706 553 1 102 49 152 706

Chy. 0 11 90 101 0 0 - - 101 101Mal. 0 22 0 22 0 0 - - 21 21Rou. 131 23 358 513 46 4 - - 463 512Bul. 7 41 27 75 22 5 - - 49 75

UE 27 9856 7035 20018 36909 7035 618 29256 36908

Oct

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All. 2328 1765 1771 5864 975 283 3157 1448 4605 5864Bel/L 215 846 396 1457 507 26 722 201 923 1456Dan. 66 313 1574 1954 209 10 868 867 1735 1954Esp. 2156 103 2190 4449 211 100 2505 1633 4137 4448Fra. 439 688 2930 4057 108 24 1701 2225 3926 4058

Grè. 172 14 359 545 7 28 307 202 509 544Irl. 9 78 330 418 9 0 180 229 408 418Ita. 1298 202 2251 3751 154 6 2922 670 3591 3752

P.B. 1419 149 4570 6137 3842 105 2129 61 2190 6137Por. 382 120 321 822 52 2 635 134 769 822

U.K. 522 481 1632 2635 55 2 1371 1207 2578 2635Autr. 23 535 4 562 31 1 124 400 523 556Fin. 5 86 71 162 0 0 - - 162 162Suè. 5 29 218 252 0 0 - - 251 251Pol. 5 413 1398 1817 46 2 738 1032 1770 1817

Hon. 56 453 4 512 23 0 - - 488 511Tch. 30 290 33 353 4 0 119 230 349 353Slq. 20 102 0 121 2 0 - - 119 121Est. 0 23 0 23 2 0 21 0 21 23Let. 0 63 9 72 8 38 - - 26 72Lit. 10 94 27 131 30 1 100 0 100 131Sln. 0 12 726 738 610 2 75 51 126 738

Chy. 0 8 102 110 0 0 - - 110 110Mal. 0 22 0 22 0 0 - - 22 22Rou. 101 35 316 452 43 5 - - 403 451Bul. 6 40 0 47 33 4 - - 11 47

UE 27 9267 6963 21233 37463 6963 640 29852 37455

consumPtion of oilmEals in animal fEEds 2012/13Small decline in competitiveness of meals against grains in 2012/13

priCe outlookS and CompetitiVe SpreadSSoymeal (48%) is currently quoted at 370 €/t for October 2012 and 371 €/t for November delivered Lorient (compared with 342 €/t and 347 €/t respectively last month) and at 355 €/t for October-December cif Rotterdam (last month: 330 €/t). For the first half of crop year 2012/13, the soy/wheat price ratio is between 1.8 and 1.9 in France. This indicates that soymeal’s competitiveness has decreased slightly compared with the cereals for use in animal feeds compared with the situation in 2011/12. For August-November 2012, rapemeal is quoted at between 214-215 €/t, which is sharply lower than the old crop price (-32 €/t compared with -55 €/t last month). Sunmeal is quoted in Bordeaux at 170 €/t for October-December 2012 (last month: 155 €/t for October 2012), which is 20 €/t less than the old crop price, as last month. Hence

given current new crop prices rapemeal, soymeal and sunmeal may find it difficult to recapture demand.

impaCt on oilmeal uSage

Soymeal (October-September)On the basis of our analysis of prices above, we project a reduction in soymeal usage in 2012/13 in the EU (-0.6 Mt compared with 2011/12). It is now expected at 29.3 Mt, with reductions for usage in industrial feeds and on-farm feeds. The reduction in industrial feeds is

Graphic 6.5: prices of soymeal, rapemeal and sunmeal in the EU (€/t)

Table 6.5 EU soymeal balance sheets – October-September 2012/13 and 2011/12 (kt)


Eu mEal markEt44

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All. 222 175 87 484 131 1 352 484Bel/L 32 161 39 232 72 0 159 232Dan. 0 43 248 291 9 0 282 291Esp. 695 143 170 1009 79 0 930 1009Fra. 1064 103 369 1537 250 2 1284 1537

Grè. 80 27 24 131 4 9 117 131Irl. 0 70 7 78 14 0 64 78Ita. 285 138 603 1026 19 2 1005 1026

P.B. 338 118 564 1020 415 0 604 1020Por. 130 67 5 202 11 0 191 202

U.K. 0 261 244 506 4 0 502 506Autr. 72 16 4 92 26 1 65 92Fin. 12 2 0 15 0 0 15 15Suè. 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1Pol. 16 79 952 1046 6 0 1040 1046

Hon. 547 93 9 649 224 7 418 649Tch. 36 20 3 60 8 0 52 60Slq. 38 47 6 91 20 10 61 91Est. 0 18 9 27 6 0 21 27Let. 0 8 40 48 18 0 30 48Lit. 1 1 65 68 23 0 44 68Sln. 0 29 39 68 30 0 39 68

Chy. 0 19 34 53 0 0 53 53Mal. 0 2 0 2 0 0 2 2Rou. 498 53 1 553 227 62 264 553Bul. 273 5 2 280 103 19 159 280

UE 27 4341 1698 3525 9568 1698 112 7756 9568

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Grè. 93 23 10 126 6 10 111 126Irl. 0 64 6 71 15 0 55 71Ita. 290 115 619 1024 20 1 1003 1024

P.B. 296 97 536 929 337 0 592 929Por. 139 38 0 177 11 0 166 177



Chy. 0 23 35 57 0 0 57 57Mal. 0 2 0 2 0 0 2 2Rou. 499 4 1 504 171 70 263 504Bul. 272 6 2 280 46 82 152 280

UE 27 2912 1432 3507 9257 1432 185 7636 9257

July

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Grè. 11 1 0 12 0 0 12 12Irl. 16 158 48 222 26 0 196 222Ita. 42 48 6 96 15 0 80 96

P.B. 524 1024 45 1593 462 13 1118 1593Por. 111 61 7 178 55 0 123 178


Hon. 101 60 -0 161 39 2 120 162Tch. 504 4 0 508 245 0 264 509Slq. 53 36 0 89 17 0 71 89Est. 38 48 4 91 5 6 79 91Let. 61 14 1 77 19 6 53 77Lit. 132 24 2 157 71 20 66 157Sln. 2 21 3 26 2 1 23 26

Chy. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Mal. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Rou. 34 33 1 68 48 19 2 69Bul. 11 14 0 25 17 0 8 25

UE 27 11476 3939 187 15602 3939 182 11483 15605

July

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Grè. 13 1 1 15 0 0 15 15Irl. 14 198 37 249 35 0 214 249Ita. 42 56 6 104 13 0 90 104

P.B. 647 846 2 1495 364 26 1105 1495Por. 136 38 0 174 40 0 134 175



Chy. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Mal. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Rou. 109 2 2 113 39 72 3 113Bul. 11 0 0 11 9 0 3 11

UE 27 12038 3253 253 15546 3245 281 12018 15548

Table 6.7: EU sunmeal balance sheets – August-July 2012/13 and 2011/12 (kt)

Table 6.6: EU rapemeal balance sheets – July-June 2012/13 and 2011/12 (kt)


Eu mEal markEt45

EU USA Brazil/ Argentina China India Others World

2010/11Carry in stocks 0,5 0,3 4,2 0,0 0,2 1,7 6,9

Production 9,6 35,6 56,7 42,9 7,3 22,2 174,4Imports 21,7 0,2 0,1 0,3 0,0 36,2 58,4

Consumption/Waste 30,6 27,5 14,2 42,7 2,8 55,1 172,9Exports 0,6 8,3 41,6 0,5 4,6 2,8 58,4

2011/12Carry in stocks 0,5 0,3 5,2 0,0 0,1 2,2 8,4



2012/13Carry in stocks 0,6 0,3 5,6 0,1 0,1 2,7 9,2



Carry out stocks 0,5 0,9 5,6 0,2 0,1 2,9 10,3

related to the fact that supplies of DDGS should increase by 0.6 Mt in 2012/13 due to new ethanol refineries coming on stream and a plant that was closed resuming production in 2012/13.

Rapemeal (July-June)Rapemeal usage is expected down 0.55Mt to 11.5 Mt in 2012/13; this fall is mainly the result of the decline in rapeseed crush. Soymeal for delivery in October 2012 is 1.7 times more expensive than rapemeal, whilst in crop year

2011/12 it was 1.6 times dearer on average than rapemeal: hence with soymeal dearer than in 2011/12 compared to rapemeal, all available supplies of rapemeal should be used.

Sunmeal (August-September)Sunmeal usage is expected up very slightly in 2012/13 compared with 2011/12 (+120 kt) at 7.8 Mt. Soymeal for delivery in October 2012 is 2.2 times dearer than sunmeal, whilst in crop year 2011/12 it was twice as expensive on average than sunmeal. Hence with soymeal

potentially less attractive than in 2011/12, all available supplies of sunmeal should find an outlet.

Conclusion: total meals usageFor ease of comparison between crop years, our demand estimates for the 3 types of meal are converted to an October-September crop year basis (see graphic 6.4). Total demand for meals is forecast slightly lower in crop year 2012/13 (-0.7 Mt) than in 2011/12 at 48.8 Mt.

world soymEal markEt and conclusion

Supply and demand now balanced for 2011/12 and 2012/13Crop year 2011/12The price of Brazilian soymeal CIF Rotterdam has risen sharply in recent weeks to 475 $/t spot (last month: 438 $/t) and 466 $/t for May-September (last month: 432 $/t); these increases were in response to the impact of bad weather on the South American soybean crop.We estimate global soymeal production at 179.7 Mt in 2011/12, up 5.3 Mt compared with 2010/11. Production is expected up 3.2 Mt to 59.9 Mt combined in Argentina and Brazil. In China, soymeal production is expected up 2.6 Mt to 45.5 Mt. By contrast, production is expected down in the USA (-0.5 Mt compared with 2010/11) due to the sharp

fall in soybean availability (see World market in Soybean supply and demand).We estimate world demand for soymeal at 178.8 Mt in 2011/12 (+5.9 Mt compared with 2010/11). This is due to demand growth in China (+2.6 Mt), India (+0.5 Mt) and various other countries (+3.6 Mt), although demand for soymeal is expected down in the USA (-0.2 Mt) and EU (-0.6 Mt). Soymeal’s loss of competitiveness compared with last month has generated a 0.3 Mt fall in projected demand in the EU; projected demand has been reduced in South America (-0.3 Mt) and India (-0.2 Mt) to reflect lower availability forecasts. These falls are partly offset by higher soymeal usage in China compared with last month (to

45.4 Mt) reflecting increased crush activity in China. Total global demand for soymeal in 2011/12 is revised down 0.2 Mt this month to 178.8 Mt.World trade is forecast up 2.3 Mt in 2011/12 to 60.7 Mt. EU imports are expected down slightly at 21.2 Mt (from 21.7 Mt in 2010/11). In China, imports are expected stable at around 0.3 Mt.In terms of exports, they should decrease in 2011/12 from the USA (-0.3 Mt), China (-0.2 Mt) and India (-0.3 Mt) but increase for Brazil and Argentina (+3.1 Mt combined).Global soybean stock is now expected to increase slightly to 9.2 Mt at the end of crop year 2011/12 (+0.9 Mt compared with 2010/11). This represents 5.2 % of annual global demand, up from 4.5 % estimated last month (4.8 % at the end of last year and 4.2% at the end of 2009/10). World supply and demand for soymeal is therefore balanced. Prices have no further increase potential in order to generate a fall in demand; indeed, the balance sheet could in fact accommodate a small growth in demand in the world market.

Crop year 2012/13New crop soymeal is currently quoted cif Rotterdam at 466 $/t for October-December 2012, which is the same as the old crop price (466 $/t for April-May); the price has risen by 30 $/t since last month. Global soymeal production in 2012/13 is expected up 9 Mt at 188.6 Mt, on the back of increased crush activities in Brazil and Argentina (soybean harvests should recover in 2012/13 in all 3 countries, assuming favourable weather) and in China (higher

Table 6.8: World soymeal balance sheets – October-September 2010/11, 2011/12, 2012/13 (Mt)


Eu mEal markEt46

soybean imports). Global demand for soymeal is currently forecast to grow by 8.8 Mt in 2012/13 to 187.6 Mt (+5 % compared with 2011/12). Demand in China is forecast at 48.6 Mt, up 3.2 Mt (+7 %) compared with 2011/12 because of the growth in animal production. In India, demand for soymeal is expected up 0.4 Mt to 3.7 Mt and in the USA up 0.4 Mt to 27.7 Mt thanks to higher availibilities. Meanwhile demand in the EU is expected down 0.6 Mt to 29.3 Mt (see earlier).In Brazil and Argentina, demand for soymeal

in animal feeds is expected up 0.9 Mt to 15.8 Mt (combined), or +6%.Given the small growth in soymeal stocks and production compared with 2011/12, global soymeal supply is expected up 9.8 Mt in 2012/13. Demand is expected up 8.8 Mt. Ending stock should therefore increase by 1 Mt at end-2012/13 to 10.3 Mt, equating to 5.5 % of annual global demand. World supply and demand will therefore remain balanced with ending stock equalling around 20 days’ worth of supply. New crop soymeal prices therefore have no intrinsic potential for

increase or decrease from the current levels.

However, the outlooks for the soybean and

soy oil markets in the new crop year are very

tight and soybean crush volumes could decline

if new crop soybean prices were to rise sharply

from current levels: hence soybean crush

volumes could be revised down which would

generate a tighter global outlook for soymeal in

2012/13.


stratégiE grains4747


stratégiE grains

SAS au capital de 40000 €RCS Melun B 390 618 031id. TVA FR15390618031

18, allée Prugnat, 77250 Moret-sur-Loing, France

Phone : +33 1 64 70 54 30e-mail : [email protected] by Tallage SAS

Methodology Our supply and demand balance sheets are based on prices quoted on mar-kets at the present time and the implications of these prices in terms of internal demand and trade. The purpose of the balance sheets is to bring to light a poten-tial surplus or deficit as the result of an imbalance in supply and demand based on current prices. This information can then be used to predict price fluctuations aimed at reducing any imbalance in the coming months. The price changes can thus cause substantial modification to the balance sheets.The surplus or deficit is the difference between ending stock on the open market and the minimum stock required to supply the market in each country until the next harvest. A surplus indicates those quantities that need to find an outlet on the internal or export markets. A deficit indicates a requirement for imports or for a demand decrease/rationing.The annual crop marketing periods retained for our balance sheets (July-June for rapeseed, August-July for sunflower, October-September for soybean) are cho-sen to give coherence with the production cycles of those crops. Most of the rape-seed is harvested in the EU after July 1, most of the sunflower after August 1 and most of the soybean after October 1.Our historical data for trade in oilseeds between the EU and third countries and between EU countries (intra-EU) is based on statistics published by Eurostats, not on statistics from third countries. There can be significant differences between the Eurostats data and official statistics published by third countries

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