Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County

By Dan Nataf, Ph.D.Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues

Anne Arundel Community CollegeApril 7, 2011

Overview of Survey Process

•CSLI – Part of Sarbanes Center for Public and Community Service at Anne Arundel Community College

•Operating since 1978

•Mission: Provide students opportunities for engaged learning, community outreach

• Main activity – public interest surveys

oRespondents randomly chosen from universe of listed telephone numbers combined with computer generated numbers

oTypical sample size: 400-900 respondents; students used as interviewers

o Topics – wide ranging, economy, transportation, land use/growth, taxes/spending, schools…

• Last survey – March 7-10, 2011 – focus on this presentation• 537 completed surveys• www2.aacc.edu/csli

• since 1978

Polling Results for AA CountyRemarkable stability in right/wrong direction…

Sp '99

Fa '99

Sp '00

Fa '00

Sp '01

Fa '01

Sp '02

Fa '02

Sp '03

Fa '03

Sp '04

Fa '04

Sp '05

Fa '05

Sp '06

Fa '06

Sp '07

Fa '07

Sp '08

Fa '08

Sp '09

Fa '09

Sp '10

Fa '10

Sp '11

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

5754

5855

6266

60 61 62

51

58 58

5357

5551 52 51 50

52

47

52 5249 50

2327

25 24 23

15

26

2125

3431

24

2927 26

2927

33 32 3128 27 28 28 28

20 1917

20

1519

1418

1315

12

19 1816

1820 21

16 17 17

2521 20

23 22

RightWrongUnsure

Fall

'04

Spri

ng '0

5

Fall

'05

Spri

ng '0

6

Fall

'06

Spri

ng '0

7

Fall

'07

Spri

ng '0

8

Fall

'08

Spri

ng '

09

Fall

'09

Spri

ng '1

0

Fall

'10

Sp '1

1

Mea

n

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

8 7 7

15

712

8

23

38

48

3336 36 36

22.4285714285714

1418

22

1621

16 1612

95 5 5

2 4

11.785714285714311.21428571428578.64285714285713

Economy /Housing Taxes – too high Growth /development Education /Traffic congestion /problems Crime / drugs

AA County Polling Results: Most Important Problem - Fall '04 to Spring '11

Economy – top concern with no recent changes

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

4648

44 4549

2730 31 32

35

5

11 11 11 11

Maryland improves by 8%

Anne Arundel County

USA

AA County Polling Results: Rate the Economy

Percentage saying “excellent” or “good” also stable since March 2009

AA County compared to USA – County looks around 35% better

S'02

F '02

S '03

F '03

S '04

F '04

S '05

F '05

S '06

F '06

S '07

F '07

S '08

F '08

S '09

F '09

S '10

F '10

S '11

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

38

26 2722

34 3431 28

3842

3227

17

5 510 11 11 13

7476

56 5662

74 74 71 7471 71 69

55

49 46 4844 45

49

CSLI – Anne Arundel County

Gallup – National Polling for USA

01020304050607080

11 6

3515

71

4

3024

75

6

51

2924

70

8

4633

19

56

7

4732

21

60

7

4434

20

52

9

4735

Economic Conditions - % saying 'applies' - specific items

S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '11

AA County Polling Results: Mostly stable findings in % saying a condition ‘applies’

Little change except for fewer losses in stocks/retirement accounts

The economy: what else applies?

Unable

to fin

d affor

dable

hous

ing

Wages

or sa

laries

are n

ot ris

ing as

fast

as th

e cos

t of li

ving

Hard t

o affor

d the

cost

of tra

nspo

rtatio

n

Hard t

o affo

rd th

e cos

t of u

tilitie

s suc

h as e

lectri

city o

r gas

Taxe

s are

too h

igh in

relat

ion to

gove

rnmen

t ser

vices

prov

ided

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

21

56

40

61

11

59

32

5058

12

55

21

5359

13

55

17

42

59

15

56

21

44

63

10

56

24

43

60

14

63

4146

63

S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '11

Big jump in transportation costs

Condition Fall2005

Spring2011

Balancing the county budget (less spending, more revenues)

0 18

Providing enough jobs 8 16Providing enough skills/training or otherwise improving education/schools

11 12

Managing growth/development 27 8Having enough infrastructure, roads, transportation 3 7All other answers 51 39Total 100 100

Biggest Economic Challenge Facing the County – Items Mentioned in 2005 and 2011

Budget and jobs rise in importance

Perceptions of Decreases in Government Services

Answer Percentage

Yes 26No 70Don’t know, no answer

5

Total 101

Services mentioned Cases PercentageRoads 39 24Schools/teachers 31 19Library 24 15College tuition 12 7Fire 10 6Seniors services 10 6Jobs/furloughs/pay cuts 10 6Police 9 6Staffing 7 4Child services 6 4MVA 3 2Mental health 2 1Total 163 100

Most don’t see an impact from govt. belt-tightening

11

Issue Support Oppose Unsure

Imposing an additional fine of up to $1500 on drivers caught drunk driving 86 13 1

Permitting the use of off-shore wind power near Ocean City 80 10 10Increasing the alcohol tax 68 29 3Permitting the purchase of marijuana for medical purposes 65 29 7Taking away drivers’ licenses from those who refuse to pay taxes 64 32 3Increasing the use of cameras to ticket those running red lights 59 41 4

Making same sex marriages legal in Maryland 47 46 7Making preparations to implement President Obama’s health care reform law 43 50 8

Limiting the use of binding arbitration when the county negotiates with public safety unions 35 42 23

Allowing the children of illegal immigrants to pay in-state tuition for college 33 63 4Increasing university tuition to maintain the quality of higher education 32 66 2Reducing the pension and retiree health benefits of state workers 28 65 7

Promising state workers no furlough days, and providing them with a $750 bonus 25 59 16

Increasing the county income tax to the maximum allowed by law to avoid cuts in essential services 25 68 7

Increasing the gasoline tax to bolster the transportation trust fund 17 80 3

State and County Issues

SupportSocial Category %Party p=.01Democrat 57Unaffiliated 48Republican 35Ideology p=.01Liberal 81Moderate 53Conservative 22Religion p=.01None/Non-practicing 75Jewish 71Spiritual but not part of organized religion

64

Other 46Catholic 43Protestant 40Some other Christian 38Evangelical 30Marital Status p=01.Single 66Married 45Gender p=.3Female 51Male 44

Age p=.0718-30 5331-40 5141-50 5151-60 5361+ 37Race p=.3Black 30White 49Other (including Hispanic, Asian and unspecified ‘other’)

50

Demographics/Same Sex Marriage% saying “Support”

Yes No Unsure/N.A.

Total

President Obama’s state of the union speech? 72 28 1 101

Governor O’Malley’s inaugural speech or his state of the state speech

41 58 1 100

Watched County Council hearings being broadcast on local cable stations anytime over the last year?

19 80 1 100

Watched, listened or read about…

Estimates %Under $1 billion 4$1 billion to $500 billion

17

$501 to $999 billion 4$1-1.999 trillion 21$2-2.99 trillion 10$3-4.99 trillion 22$5-6 trillion 6Over $6 trillion 17Total 101

Estimations of Federal Budget

51% estimated

Estimates %

Under $1 billion 30$1-5.99 billion 26$6 to $10.99 billion

7

$11-15.99 billion 4$16-20.99 billion 5$21-30.99 billion 3$31-40 billion 1Over $40 billion 24Total 100

Estimates %Under $5 million 22$5-50 million 18$51 to $100 million

10

$101-350 million 8$351-650 million 9$651-999 million 7$1-1.99 billion 14$2-2.99 billion 3$4-6.99 billion 4Over $7 billion 6Total 100

Estimations of County Budget31% estimated

Estimations of State Budget31% estimated

Fall '06

Spring '07

Fall '07

Spring '08

Fall '08

Spring '09

Fall '09

Spring '10

Fall '10

Spring '11

010203040506070

3934 35

28 24

5347 47

4247

37 33 32 3025

6154

4743

47

CSLI Gallup

Presidential Job Approval: Recent Rise…

Presidential Job Approval: % approving of president’s job by party

2824

5347 47

4247

9 6

7972 69

6270

57

43

2517

24 251819

24

53 53 52

35

57

010

2030

4050

6070

8090

Sp. '08 Fa. '08 Sp '09 Fa. '09 Sp '10 Fa '10 Sp '10

Overall

Democrats

Republicans

Indep

Bush Obama