Overview of 2004Technology Roadmap

February 24, 2005Jim McElroy

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Topics CoveredTopics Covered

• Overview

• Situation Analysis

• Highlights from the Product Emulator Groups

• Highlights from the Individual Roadmaps

• Identified Needs and Trends

• Paradigm Shifts and Strategic Concerns

• Key Recommendations

• Closing Challenge

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Mission StatementMission Statement

iNEMI is a member-driven

consortium whose mission is to

assure leadership of the global

electronics manufacturing

supply chain.

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Industry Leaders belong Industry Leaders belong –– OEM/EMS OEM/EMS

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Industry Leaders belong Industry Leaders belong –– Suppliers Suppliers

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Industry Leaders belongIndustry Leaders belong

Consultants, Government, Organizations & UniversitiesConsultants, Government, Organizations & Universities

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Attributes of iNEMI RoadmapsAttributes of iNEMI Roadmaps

• iNEMI Roadmap is customer need driven, nottechnology driven.

• OEM driven Product Emulator Groups (PEGs) startroadmapping process by presenting what they needto remain competitive in the world market.

• Focus of Roadmaps is on process and technologyrather than end products.

• Technology Working Groups (TWGs) respond andidentify gaps and showstoppers. They do notprovide solutions.

• iNEMI Technical Committee prioritizes gaps andforms Technology Integration Groups (TIGs) toclose them.

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2004 Roadmap Priorities 2004 Roadmap Priorities

• Maintain strong linkages with other roadmaps.

• Strengthen and realign Product Emulators.

• Begin proactively globalizing roadmap.

• Expand emphasis on disruptive events (business &technical).

• Expand emphasis on identifying market needs andbusiness situations.

• Increase quantification of needs.

• Prioritize Research and Deployment needs.

• Increase strategic vision of the roadmap: 2009-2015

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Statistics for the 2004 RoadmapStatistics for the 2004 Roadmap

• > 470 Participants

• > 220 Companies/organizations

• 11 Countries from 3 Continents

• 19 Technology Working Groups (TWGs)(added Sensors)

• 7 Product Emulator Groups (PEGs)

• Over 1200 Pages of Information

• Roadmaps the needs for 2005-2015

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7 Product Emulator Groups (PEGs)7 Product Emulator Groups (PEGs)

Emulators Characteristics

Portable / Consumer High volume Consumer Products for which cost is the primary driver including Hand held, battery-powered products driven by size and weight reduction

System in a Package Complete function provided in a package to system manufacturer

Office Systems / Large Business Systems

Products which seek maximum performance from a few thousand dollar cost limit to literally no cost limit

Network / Datacom / Telecom Products

Products that serve the networking, datacom and telecom markets and cover a wide range of cost and performance targets

Medical Products Products which must operate within a highly reliable environment

Automotive Products which must operate in an automotive environment

Defense and Aerospace Produc ts which must operate in extreme environments

Yellow = Completely new Emulator Green = Broadened focus

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19 Technology Working Groups (TWGs)19 Technology Working Groups (TWGs)

Organic SubstratesBoard

Assembly Customer

RF Components &Subsystems

Optoelectronics

Displays

Energy Storage Systems

Modeling, Simulation,and Design

Modeling, Simulation,and Design

PackagingSemiconductorTechnology

Final Assembly

Mass Storage (Magnetic & Optical)

Passive Components

Product LifecycleInformation

Management (PLIM)

Product LifecycleInformation

Management (PLIM)

Test, Inspection &Measurement

Test, Inspection &Measurement

EnvironmentallyConsciousElectronics

EnvironmentallyConsciousElectronics

Ceramic Substrates

ThermalManagement

ThermalManagement

Connectors

Sensors

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8 Contributing Organizations8 Contributing Organizations

Situation Analysis:MarketTechnologyLegislation

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The Expanding Digital Product BaseThe Expanding Digital Product Base

New products, enabled by new technologies, arecreating a pronounced market shift in theindustry:

– Blurring of the lines: computers & communications

– Cell phone market growth

– Emergence of Wireless Products (Bluetooth, 802.11)

– Digital Cameras and Personal EntertainmentSystems

– Automotive electronics (add functionality of home &office to your car plus added safety features)

– Significant presence in emerging markets is animperative (no longer a differentiator).

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Global Market GrowthGlobal Market Growth

• Production of computers & office products is expected to reach$379Bn in 2004 with growth of 6.2% / year to $483Bn in 2008,accounting for 37% of the electronics market – the largestsegment.

• Production of netcom equipment is forecast to be $180Bn in 2004– about 18% of the electronics industry. Internet use shouldincrease at this segment about 6.3% / year to $230Bn in 2008.

• Portable / Consumer electronics production is reach $183Bn in2004 increase about 5.1% / year to reach $223Bn in 2008.

• Medical electronics production is expected to be $39.5Bn in 2004(accounting for about 4.9% of the global industry), growing at 4.9%/ year to 2008.

• 1.89Bn SiPs assembled in 2004. Forecast for 2008 is 3.25Bn(average growth of 12% / year).

* Market data provided by Prismark Partners, LLC

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The End of Semiconductor ScalingThe End of Semiconductor Scaling

• The anticipated end to semiconductor scalingc. 2015 will create a major technology shift inthe industry:

• Implementation of advanced, non-classicalCMOS device with enhanced drive current

• Identification, selection, and implementationof advanced devices (beyond-CMOS)

• Increased need for improved cooling

• Innovative packaging for giga-functionsystem in package (SiP)

• Innovation must begin today to meet theseneeds!

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Technology ChangesTechnology Changes

• Growth in silicon device size is slowing

• SiP applications have become technology driver for:– Small components

– packaging

– assembly processes

– high density substrates

• LCD & plasma displays encroaching on CRT market

• MEMS technology is making new capabilities feasiblein old and new markets

• Alternative approaches to today’s established datastorage technologies will develop over the next decade.

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Global Environmental LegislationGlobal Environmental Legislation

Legislation impacting the design and recycling ofelectronic products is being enactedthroughout the world (including China):

• Environmental legislation in various productsegments requires the electronics industry toshare detailed material content data ofproducts and components.

• To meet regional legislative requirements,manufacturers must remove environmental“Materials of Concern,” such as lead.

• The electronics industry is facing end-of-lifeor producer responsibility legislation.

Highlights from theProduct Emulator Groups

(PEGs)

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Automotive PEG HighlightsAutomotive PEG Highlights

• Reliability – 100,000 miles or 10 years

• Harsh Environment becoming harsher

• HEV (Hybrid Electric Vehicles) creating newopportunities For Automotive Electronics

• Merging of Automotive and ConsumerElectronics

• Ability to respond to environmental legislation

• Substrate, component assembly, and IC packagecosts should drop:

– 30% in the next 5 Years

– 60% in the next 10 Years

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System in Package PEG HighlightsSystem in Package PEG Highlights

• Broadest adoption of SiP has been for stacked memory/logic devices & small modules (integrate mixed signaldevices & passives for mobile phones).

• SiP provides more integration flexibility, faster time tomarket, lower R&D cost, & lower product cost for someapplications (vs. SOC).

• Infrastructure issues facing SiP implementations include:

• Need for low cost higher density substrates

• High speed simulation tools for electrical & mechanicalanalysis

• Wafer level packaging

• Lower cost assembly equipment

• Improved materials for encapsulation

• Skill set and business models vary for EMS/SAS(Semiconductor Assembly Services)

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Projected growth for SiPsProjected growth for SiPs

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

RF Cellu

lar

Digita

l

WLAN/B

lueto

oth

Power Supply

Autom

otive

Image/D

isplay

Optoelectro

nicsOth

er

SiP

Uni

ts (B

illio

ns)

2003

2007

Handsets51%

Satellite15%

Other4%

Infrastructure30%

Overall SiP Market: 2003 vs. 2007

Sources: Prismark (primary), Deutch Bank, Credit Suisse First Boston, Allied Business Intelligence.

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Netcom PEG HighlightsNetcom PEG Highlights

• Themes for next generation development:– Common design tools– Common manufacturing / test capabilities– Common component specifications– Leverage across the communications hardware

industry

• Telecommunications equipment is facing a crisis: abilityto manage the thermal load in next-generation systems

• Need for flexible manufacturing is pervasive across entireNetcom product portfolio

• Most profound paradigm shift is change in supply chainmodel, moving from completely vertically integratedcompanies to nearly completely horizontally integratedcompanies

• Two strong growth areas will be high-speed Internetaccess and VOIP (Voice Over IP).

Highlights from theIndividual Roadmaps

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Environmentally Conscious Electronic HighlightsEnvironmentally Conscious Electronic Highlights

To remain competitive, the electronics industrymust continue to keep pace with emerging:

– Material restrictions

– End-of life requirements

– Customer preferences for energy efficientproducts

– Holistic design requirements

– Sustainable business practices.

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Environmentally Conscious Electronic NeedsEnvironmentally Conscious Electronic Needs

• Design:

– Qualification of replacements for hazardous substances

– Automated data management systems for materials declarations

– Product and WEEE compliance verification processes

– LCA / SLCA tools

• Materials:

– Pb-free for high reliability requirement applications

– Cd and Pb-free PVC cables

– REACH risk assessment for chemical emissions

• Energy:

– Cost effective methods to improve power supply efficiency

– Enabled power management of IT equipment

• Recycling:

– Compliance to diverse regional Recycling requirements

• Sustainability:

– Standard Sustainability Indicators and Reporting protocol for EEE

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Board Assembly HighlightsBoard Assembly Highlights

• Board assembly incurs most of the direct-material costs forelectronics products and is critical to electronics supply chain

• Identified areas for improvement:

- Efficiency and utilization of high mix/low volume lines

- Set up times & adoption of factory information

integration with real time optimization

- Ramps to volume and line flexibility

- Qualification processes for materials & process development

- DPMO leverage to understand package performance

- DFx tools integrated with factory data systems

• Board assembly is being impacted by MEMS, optoelectronics andwireless communications packaging technology development

• Movement of board assembly to low cost areas of the world –primarily China – continues.

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Assembly Gaps Associated With ComponentsAssembly Gaps Associated With Components

Parameter Definition 2003 2005 2007 2009 2015

Digital Terminals Maximum number of terminals to the board. That are carrying a digital signal per package

800 2900 3200 3500 3500

RF Terminals Maximum number of terminals to the board. That are carrying a RF signal per package

100 200 200 200 200

Maximum Body Size (L x W)- mm 40 52.5 70 70 70 Minimum Terminal Pitch BGA Pitch of the I/O (mm) 1.27 0.80 0.80 0.65 0.50

Minimum Terminal Pitch CSP Pitch of the I/O (mm) 0.65 0.50 0.40 0.40 0.30

Number of stack die Maximum number of stacked die in a package

4 7 8 8 8

Number of die in SiP max

Maximum number of stacked or unstacked die in a package

8 10 12 12 12

Minimum Component size

Minimum component size used in a package by type

0201 0201 01005 01005 01005

Embedded Passives N/A Few YES YES YES YES

MSL Level Moisture sensitivity level per IPC that packages are qualified

3 2 2 2 2

Max Reflow Temperature

Common reflow temperature for multi die packages. – deg C

250 260 260 260 260

Thermal conductivity critical 80% 85% 90% 90% 90% Low temperature capability <5% <5% <5% <5% <5% Pre-applied <1% 3% 5% 20% 30%

Die Attach Materials

Matched CTE capability 0% 5% 7% 15% 25%

Key Current Capability

In Development Research Needed

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Interconnection Substrates HighlightsInterconnection Substrates Highlights

• Area array components driving wiring densityincreases in organic substrates

• New high speed requirements demand Z axiscontrol, signal integrity and EMI designconsiderations

• Integral passives are needed for both wiringdensity and electrical performance

• Cost expectations of iNEMI emulators may bedifficult for European & North Americanfabricators.

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Packaging HighlightsPackaging Highlights

• Packaging costs have become a larger part of I/Ccosts

• Impact of packaging is increasing, but R&Dinvestment is not

• Packaging has become a major competitive factordue to:– rapid growth in wireless– complex consumer products

• Emerging device technologies driving newpackaging requirements

• Major challenge: modeling/simulation of mechanical,thermal & electrical performance of the entire chip,package & heat removal structures as a system.

IdentifiedNeeds and Trends

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Design Technology - NeedsDesign Technology - Needs

Design & simulation tools are main roadblocks to morerapid introduction of new technologies:

– Mechanical & reliability modeling

– Thermal & thermo-fluid simulation

– Co-design of mechanical, thermal & electricalperformance of the entire chip, package & associatedheat removal structures

– Simulation tools for nano devices & materials

– Improved design tools for emerging technologies likeembedded passives & optoelectronic PWBs

– Integrated design & simulation tools (circuit, EM,thermal, mechanical, manufacturing, etc.) for higherfunctionality in mixed-mode wireless chips & modules.

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Manufacturing Technology - NeedsManufacturing Technology - Needs

• Improved stencil technology or paste dispensing

• Cost effective under fill process including rework

• Equipment to close cost gap between flip chip & SMTplacement

• Reconfigurability for final assembly

• SMT compatible optical assembly processes withaccuracies < 10 µm

• Test procedures for optical components &electro/optical systems

• Analog test including scan and self-test technology.

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Optoelectronics Technology - NeedsOptoelectronics Technology - Needs

• Development of optical polymeric materials for improvedmultimode data transmission

• Development of multi-frequency chip-to-chipinterconnections

• Combined processing of high frequency and microoptical components

• Development of optical connectors and packageinterfaces

• Wafer level packaging for optoelectronic systems

• Cost-effective packaging for long wavelength singlemode VCSELs.

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Packaging Technology - NeedsPackaging Technology - Needs

• Improved organic substrates

• Reliable packages for Cu/low k devices

• Pb, Sb, Halogen free packaging materials

• Improved Materials for:

- High frequency performance > 2 GHz

- Smaller packages and tighter I/Opitches (exceeding today’s capabilities).

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Component/Subsystem Technology - NeedsComponent/Subsystem Technology - Needs

• Improved performance & reduced leakage in low powerapplications

• Medium power, low-loss, high-selectivity RF filters

• Improved optoelectronic subcomponents and componentintegration

• Low cost, high volume optical connectors

• In-circuit test technologies that are incorporated into the buildprocess

• Cost & performance models:

– Evaluate trade offs between embedded passives and 01005components

– Evaluate optical versus copper interconnection

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Supply Chain Integration - NeedsSupply Chain Integration - Needs

• Material Traceability through Product Life Cycle for:

– Environmental and Medical Regulations

– Automotive and Military Requirements.

• Further Integration of design chain/supply chain toreduce costs and improve performance throughoutthe product life cycle:

– Understanding customer needs (moving target)

– Critical information flow

– Timely decisions that optimize performance of entirechain rather than one node.

Paradigm Shifts &Strategic Concerns

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Paradigm ShiftsParadigm Shifts

• Convergence of broadband communications anddigital technology has increased product opportunitieswhile creating market uncertainty:

– What is the right combination of functions?

– Which companies/services will win?

– Trends are beginning to emerge

• System in Package functional modules are speedingthe design of new portable and office system productsand reducing risk to the OEM. Product examples:

– Bluetooth

– WiFi (802.11b,a,g)

– GSM (Global System for Mobile Communication )

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Vision of the Evolution of SiPVision of the Evolution of SiP

Source: Professor Rao Tummala, Georgia Institute of Technology-Packaging Research Center.

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• Rapid introduction of complex, multifunctional newproducts to address converging markets favorsdevelopment of functional, modular components (e.g. SiP)

– Increases flexibility & shortens product design cycle & places test burden onmodule producers

– This architecture allows for MEMS device construction with a variety of newapplications in fuel cells & life sciences (DNA/blood testing)

• Wireless applications are an important driver forsemiconductor products & technologies and may stimulatedisruptive solutions

• Nanotechnology has the potential to be a very disruptivetechnology during the period covered by the roadmap

• New energy technologies that may cause disruptiveopportunities include fuel cells and high power batteries forhybrid electric vehicles.

Potential Disruptive TechnologyPotential Disruptive Technology

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Strategic ConcernsStrategic Concerns

• Given flow of technology & manufacturing betweencountries, many key component industries are looking foralternative business strategies to maintain leadership

• Innovative approaches to Enterprise IT & supply chainmanagement which increase ROI in a predictable way

• EMSs are being asked to provide R&D leadership whilekeeping overhead low – this may not be a viable businessstrategy

• The materials supply base does not have adequate demand(at high enough margins) to drive many of the needed newmaterials

• Impact of Environmental Compliance on financials,reliability, & IT infrastructure

• Reliability of less mature material systems

Key Recommendations

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Key RecommendationsKey RecommendationsiNEMI Technical Projects• Establish a SiP TIG to address process, materials, equipment, &

reliability gaps.

• Establish a project in the interconnect arena that explores dimensionalstability of materials used in PWB manufacturing (driven by fine pitchand microvia technology).

• Establish a research project on new organic materials with improvedproperties for electronics packaging.

Design• Develop co-design capabilities of mechanical, thermal, and electrical

performance of the entire chip, package, & heat removal structures.

• Develop improved design tools for emerging technologies likeembedded passives and optoelectronic PWBs.

Manufacturing Technology• Develop automated printing, dispensing, placement, and rework

equipment capable of the pitch requirements for SiP packageassembly at current process speeds.

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Key RecommendationsKey RecommendationsMaterials Development

• Low cost, higher thermal conductivity, packaging materials, such asadhesives, thermal pastes, and thermal spreaders.

• New interconnect technologies deploying nano-materials to supportdecreased pitch and increased interconnect frequencies.

• Characterize & improve reliability of material systems.

Energy and the Environment

• Development & implementation of scientific methodologies to assesstrue environmental impacts of materials and potential trade-offs foralternatives.

• Develop a common, straightforward definition of sustainability that:

– Can be applied quantitatively at the business level

– Can be easily communicated to stakeholders

– Can be used to set targets

Technology Development

• Thermal Management of high power densities

• Develop reconfigurable or adaptive radio transceivers.

Closing Challenge

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Closing Needs through Research:Closing Needs through Research:A Challenge to be StrategicA Challenge to be Strategic

• A number of Needs have appeared since the1994 Roadmap.

• We need be innovative and look for disruptivebusiness & technology Solutions to these Needs.

• We need to identify the research areas thatwould provide the technology Solutions to theseNeeds.For example:

– Material Needs: Nanomaterials

– Manufacturing Processes: flexibility andreconfigurability

– Design: Rapid Modeling of Complex Systems

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The Next Great ChallengeThe Next Great ChallengeThe End of Semiconductor ScalingThe End of Semiconductor Scaling

• The anticipated end to semiconductor scaling willcreate a major technology shift in the industry:

• Implementation of advanced, non-classical CMOSdevices with enhanced drive current

• Identification, selection, and implementation ofadvanced devices (beyond-CMOS)

• Increased need for improved cooling

• Innovative Packaging for giga-function systems

• Innovation must begin today to meet these needs

• Next Step: iNEMI Innovation Leadership Forum• Convene key industry, government, university and business

leaders

• discuss issues and develop a Research Vision that will focusinvestments on the right topics.

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Order your roadmap today!Order your roadmap today!

www.inemi.orgwww.inemi.orgEmail contacts:Email contacts:

Jim McElroyJim McElroy

jmcelroy@inemi.orgjmcelroy@inemi.org

Bob PfahlBob Pfahl

bob.pfahl@inemi.orgbob.pfahl@inemi.org