Over The Horizon:The Two Neighbours Ten Years From Now

Danny Burrows

NEIGHBOURS

US-MX Trade: 506%

US-Other Trade: 279%

NAFTA NEIGHBOURS

19821985

19881991

19941997

20002003

20062009

20120

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

US FDI Outstock - MexicoUS FDI Outstock - Mex-ico

US$m

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

US FDI in MX: 477%

IN-SL Trade:

386%

INDIA-SRI LANKA NEIGHBOURS

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

IN FDI in SL:

500%+ (2001-2007)

BILATERAL TRADE (BAU)

Source: ABS

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

20132014f

2015f2016f

2017f2018f

2019f2020f

2021f2022f

2023f2024f

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2-way Trade - Australia-Indonesia

2-way Trade

A$m

20032005

20072009

20112013

2015f2017f

2019f2021f

2023f0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

2-way Trade - Australia-Indonesia

2-way Trade - POTENTIAL2-way Trade - BAU

A$m

BILATERAL TRADE POTENTIAL

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

2013f2014f

2015f2016f

2017f2018f

2019f2020f

2021f2022f

2023f2024f

-

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

Australian FDI Outstock - Indonesia

Australian FDI in Indonesia - BAU

US$m

FDI (BAU)

Source: UNCTAD

FDI POTENTIAL

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

2013f2014f

2015f2016f

2017f2018f

2019f2020f

2021f2022f

2023f2024f

-

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

Australian FDI Outstock - Indonesia

Australian FDI in Indonesia - POTENTIALAustralian FDI in Indonesia - BAU

US$m

HOW DO WE FIND EACH OTHER?

IA-CEPA Partnerships North x East

DISRUPTION

DISRUPTIVE TRADE AGREEMENTS

• A traditional FTA will not do.• On services, take big steps with little risk.• Don’t wait for the perfect deal.

DISRUPTIVE PARTNERSHIPS

OFDI

DISRUPTIVE PARTNERSHIPS

OFDI

DISRUPTIVE DEVELOPMENT

SulawesiGRP: $1816Pop: 16m

E. Nusa Tenggara

GRP: $527Pop: 4.7m

West PapuaGRP: $1888

Pop: 1m

NTGRP: $78292Pop: 373,000

MalukuGRP: $525Pop: 1.5m

E. TimorGDP: $3700

Pop: 1m

PapuaGRP: $2941

Pop: 3m

DISRUPTIVE KIDS!

www.trade-worthy.com

danny.burrows@trade-worthy.com