Our Insights. Your Story. - Property Data Reports ......Residential Real Estate Underpins Australia’s Wealth As at the end of January 2019 Residential Real Estate $6.2* Trillion

Our Insights.

Your Story.

Property market chart pack

February 2019

Our Insights. Your Story. © 2019 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. 2

Residential Real Estate Underpins Australia’s Wealth

As at the end of January 2019

Residential Real Estate

$6.2* Trillion

Australian Superannuation

$2.7 Trillion

Australian Listed Stocks

$1.8 Trillion

Commercial Real Estate

$964 Billion

10.1 millionNumber of dwellings

$1.81 trillionOutstanding mortgage

debt

442,067Total sales

p.a.

$286.4 billionGross value of

sales p.a.

50.7%Household

wealth held in

housing

Source: CoreLogic, APRA, RBA, ASX

*CoreLogic estimates the value of every dwelling nationally based on a proprietary valuation model. The overall asset value is based on a summation if these valuation estimates which is current to the most recent month. CoreLogic has recently undertaken a comprehensive investment in improving the underlying datasets that power these valuation estimates. The project included removing

redundant property records, refreshing and improving the property type classification of dwellings and adding additional attribute information which has improved our valuation estimates and reduced the overall dwelling count. The net result is our measure of the overall value of real estate nationally has been revised lower.

© 2019 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. Our Insights. Your Story.

-4.5%

-4.0%

-0.4%

-0.1%

-2.7%

1.0%

-2.8%

0.8%

-1.3%

0.7%

-0.3%

1.0%

-0.8%

0.6%

0.1%

-3.3%

-0.6%

-2.7%

-6% -4% -2% 0% 2%

Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Adelaide

Perth

Hobart

Darwin

Canberra

Regional NSW

Regional Vic

Regional Qld

Regional SA

Regional WA

Regional Tas

Regional NT

Combined capitals

Combined regionals

National

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Jan-91 Jan-98 Jan-05 Jan-12 Jan-19

Combined capitals Combined regionals

The quarterly rate of decline in capital city housing markets is continuing to accelerate

3

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly change in dwelling values Quarterly change in dwelling values to Jan-19


-9.7%

-8.3%

0.0%

0.9%

-5.6%

7.4%

-3.5%

3.8%

-2.2%

5.0%

-0.8%

-0.1%

-7.0%

9.2%

1.1%

-6.9%

-0.8%

-5.6%

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%

Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Adelaide

Perth

Hobart

Darwin

Canberra

Regional NSW

Regional Vic

Regional Qld

Regional SA

Regional WA

Regional Tas

Regional NT

Combined capitals

Combined regionals

National

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Jan-84 Jan-91 Jan-98 Jan-05 Jan-12 Jan-19

Combined capitals Combined regionals

The 5.6% annual decline in values nationally is the largest annual fall seen since mid-1983

4

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly change in dwelling values Quarterly change in dwelling values to Jan-19


Although not all capital cities are recording value declines, the annual rate of change is slowing across the board

5

Source: CoreLogic

-9.7%-8.3%

0.0%

0.9%

-5.6%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%


Annual change in dwelling values

Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth

7.4%

-3.5%

3.8%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%


Annual change in dwelling values

Hobart Darwin Canberra


-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th

Quarterly change Annual change

1.0%

-0.1%

-0.3%

-0.8%

-1.3%

-2.3%

-3.6%

-4.7%

-6.5%

-9.6%

-1.2%

-1.2%

-1.7%

-2.1%

-3.2%

-4.3%

-5.1%

-6.3%

-8.1%

-10.1%

2.5%

1.1%

0.7%

0.9%

0.9%

0.8%

0.2%

-0.3%

-0.9%

-2.0%

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5%

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

10th

Regional markets Combined capital cities National

Premium dwelling values continue to record much larger value falls than those of more affordable housing

6

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values by deciles,

National as at January 2019

Annual change in dwelling values by decile,

Jan-19


-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%


Quarterly change Annual change Sydney dwelling

values have fallen by -4.5% over the 3 months to January

2019 and they are -9.7% lower over the past year. Sydney

dwelling values are now -12.3% lower than their July 2017

peak.

7

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Sydney


-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%



Dwelling values in Melbourne have

fallen by -4.0% over the 3 months to January 2019 and

they are -8.3% lower over the past year. Values in Melbourne

have now fallen by -8.7% since they peaked in

November 2017.

8

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Melbourne


-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%


Quarterly change Annual change Brisbane home

values fell -0.4% over the three months to January 2019 and

they were unchanged over the past year. Brisbane

dwelling values are now -0.7% lower than their April 2018

peak.

9

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Brisbane


-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%



Dwelling values in Adelaide fell by -0.1% over the three months to January 2019 however, they are 0.9% higher over the past year. Adelaide house values were 0.9%higher over the past year while unit values were 1.4% higher.

10

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Adelaide


-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%


Quarterly change Annual change Perth dwelling values fell by -2.7%over the three months to January 2019 and they are -5.6% lower over the past year. Dwelling values in Perth are now -16.5% lower than they were at their peak in June 2014.

11

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Perth


-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%



Dwelling values in Hobart rose 1.0% over the 3 months to January 2019 and are 7.4% higher over the past year. Over the past 12 months, house values have increased 7.0% and unit values are 9.0% higher.

12

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Hobart


-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Jan-01 Jan-04 Jan-07 Jan-10 Jan-13 Jan-16 Jan-19


Darwin dwelling values fell by -2.8% over the three months to January and they are -3.5% lower over the past year. Dwelling values in Darwin are currently -25.8% lower than their historic peak.

13

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Darwin


-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%



Dwelling values in Canberra increased by 0.8% over the three months to January 2019 and they are 3.8% higher over the past year. House values have increased by 4.3%over the year while unit values rose 1.9%.

14

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Canberra

© 2019 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. Our Insights. Your Story. 15

Transaction numbers remain lower than a year ago and well below the decade average due to significant falls in settled transactions across Australia’s two largest cities

Source: CoreLogic

Note the sales volumes are modelled based on historic levels of revision however, they are still subject to revision. Furthermore, sales volumes do not

account for off-the-plan purchases which upon completion are counted as sales at their contract date.

Decade average


-3.0%2.3%

1.5%1.6%1.9%

5.0%-6.0%

5.6%

2.4%4.7%

0.0%1.2%

-0.3%5.1%

-1.4%

0.0%1.6%

0.4%

-10% -5% 0% 5% 10%

SydneyMelbourne

BrisbaneAdelaide

PerthHobartDarwin

Canberra

Regional NSWRegional VicRegional QldRegional SA

Regional WARegional TasRegional NT

Combined capitalsCombined regionals

National

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%


16

Rental growth is slowing rapidly largely due to falls in Sydney and slowing in Melbourne

Source: CoreLogic

Annual change in dwelling rents, National Annual change in dwelling rents to Jan-19


3.5%

3.7%

3.9%

4.1%

4.3%

4.5%

4.7%

4.9%

5.1%


17

With dwelling values falling as rents continue to rise, gross rental yields have started to increase from historic low levels

Source: CoreLogic

Gross rental yields, National Gross rental yields as at Jan-19

3.4%3.6%

4.5%4.4%

4.2%4.9%

5.9%4.8%

4.6%4.6%

5.3%5.7%5.6%

5.4%6.9%

3.8%5.0%

4.0%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

SydneyMelbourne

BrisbaneAdelaide

PerthHobartDarwin

Canberra



Combined capitalsCombined regionals

National


0 50 100 150

SydneyMelbourne

BrisbaneAdelaide

PerthHobartDarwin

Canberra



Combined capital citiesCombined regionals

National

Jan-19

Jan-18

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Combined capitals

Combined regionals

18

The time it takes to sell a property is increasing as transaction volumes fall with fewer active buyers in the market

Source: CoreLogic

Median days on market Median days on market Jan-18 vs Jan-19


-12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0%

SydneyMelbourne

BrisbaneAdelaide

PerthHobartDarwin

Canberra



Combined capital citiesCombined regionals

National

Jan-19

Jan-18

-8%

-7%

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%


Combined capitals

Combined regionals

19

As the housing market weakens, vendors are having to offer larger discounts in order to secure a sale

Source: CoreLogic

Median vendor discount Median vendor discount Jan-18 vs Jan-19


StateNo of new

listings

12 mth

change (%)

No of total

listings

12 mth

change (%)

NSW 8,829 -18.9% 51,164 14.8%

Vic 8,585 -13.2% 50,518 14.0%

Qld 8,326 -10.8% 62,317 1.5%

SA 2,516 -9.5% 16,927 -3.8%

WA 4,713 -11.9% 33,898 -0.4%

Tas 964 -6.1% 4,900 -12.2%

NT 193 -4.5% 1,940 -4.0%

ACT 617 -24.5% 2,313 11.2%

National 34,743 -13.8% 223,977 5.9%

Capital cityNo of new

listings

12 mth

change (%)

No of total

listings

12 mth

change (%)

Sydney 5,069 -21.9% 26,323 19.0%

Melbourne 5,935 -15.2% 33,319 30.9%

Brisbane 3,690 -7.0% 20,155 6.5%

Adelaide 1,882 -6.0% 8,040 0.5%

Perth 3,524 -12.9% 20,606 0.7%

Hobart 385 4.9% 1,186 12.8%

Darwin 148 3.5% 1,354 -7.4%

Canberra 594 -25.7% 2,206 10.3%

Combined capitals 21,227 -14.4% 113,189 13.8%

20

While fewer newly listed properties are coming up for sale currently, total listings are much higher than they were a year ago, particularly in Sydney, Melbourne, Hobart and

Canberra

Source: CoreLogic

Number of new and total properties advertised for sale, 28 days to 3 February 2019


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15 Feb-17 Feb-19

Nu

mb

er

of

au

cti

on

s

Cle

ara

nc

e r

ate

Weekly clearance rate, combined capital cities

21

Auction markets paused over recent months and have started the year with slightly stronger clearance rates

Source: CoreLogic


1.5%2.2%

1.7%0.7%0.8%

1.1%-0.1%

2.2%1.6%

-1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0%

NSWVIC

QLDSA

WATASNT

ACTAUST

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

Jun-88 Jun-98 Jun-08 Jun-1820,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Jun-88 Jun-98 Jun-08 Jun-18

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

Jun-83 Jun-88 Jun-93 Jun-98 Jun-03 Jun-08 Jun-13 Jun-18

22

Housing demand: migration to Australia remains high, however the trend in population growth is slowing

Source: CoreLogic, ABS

Quarterly change in national population

Net overseas migration Natural increase Annual change in population

Rolling 4 qtr average


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Dec-88 Dec-93 Dec-98 Dec-03 Dec-08 Dec-13 Dec-18

Houses Units

23

Both house and unit approvals are trending lower however, unit approvals are trending lower at a much faster pace


Number of dwellings approved for construction, National

Rolling 6 mth average


6.8%

1.1%0.0%2.5%5.0%7.5%

10.0%12.5%15.0%

Dec-08 Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-14 Dec-16 Dec-18

Annual change in credit, owner occupier v investor

Owner occupier housing Investment housing

45.6%

16.1%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14 Sep-16 Sep-18

% of mortgages originated on interest-only terms

37.6%

20.9%

15%

25%

35%

45%

Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14 Sep-16 Sep-18

% of mortgages settled with an LVR 80%+

24

Source: CoreLogic, APRA, RBA

While previous housing cycles have generally been dictated by changes in interest rates, the current slowdown has been heavily influenced by changes in credit availability


54.8%

40.7%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

Nov-08 Nov-10 Nov-12 Nov-14 Nov-16 Nov-18

Investor share of all new housing finance commitments (ex refi)

$5

$7

$9

$11

$13

$15

$17

Nov-08 Nov-10 Nov-12 Nov-14 Nov-16 Nov-18

$ b

illio

nMonthly value of housing finance

commitments

Owner occupier (ex refi) Investor

The slowdown in credit growth is mostly due to a

sharp reduction in investment

lending; down 23.4% over the past year and

36.7% lower relative to the

2015 peak

25



64%

38%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%

No

v-8

8

No

v-9

8

No

v-0

8

No

v-1

8

NSW

55%

32%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%

No

v-8

8

No

v-9

8

No

v-0

8

No

v-1

8

Vic

49%

35%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%

No

v-8

8

No

v-9

8

No

v-0

8

No

v-1

8

Qld

48%

28%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%

No

v-8

8

No

v-9

8

No

v-0

8

No

v-1

8

SA

50%

29%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%

No

v-8

8

No

v-9

8

No

v-0

8

No

v-1

8

WA

40%

23%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%

No

v-8

8

No

v-9

8

No

v-0

8

No

v-1

8

Tas

47.7%38.0% 30.3% 30.6% 27.9% 25.4% 30.8% 31.3%

NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT

Investors as a % of total value of lending (excluding refinances) as at Nov 2018

26


NSW and Vic have been the drivers of investor demand and it is falling sharply in each of those states

Long run average


16.0%

18.8%

18.6%

14.9%

24.7%

16.0%

35.1%

20.2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

NSW

Vic

Qld

SA

WA

Tas

NT

ACT

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Nov-98 Nov-03 Nov-08 Nov-13 Nov-18

NSW Vic Qld SA WA

27


First home buyer demand has increased over the past year on the back of incentives, falling investor demand and falling values in the largest cities

First home buyers as a % of all owner occupier housing finance commitments First home buyers as a % of all owner occupier

housing finance commitments, November 18


0.14%

0.19%

0.06%

0.44%

0.52%

0.21%

Variable, standard

Variable, discounted

Variable, 3-year fixed

Variable, standard



Ow

ner

occ

upie

rIn

vest

or

Change in avg mortgage rate since low point,

Jan 2019

5.37%

4.65%

4.07%

5.94%

5.22%

4.34%

Variable, standard



Variable, standard



Ow

ner

occ

upie

rIn

vest

or

Avg mortgage rate by product type,

Jan 2019

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

Jan-59 Jan-64 Jan-69 Jan-74 Jan-79 Jan-84 Jan-89 Jan-94 Jan-99 Jan-04 Jan-09 Jan-14 Jan-19

28

Although the cash rate remains on hold, variable mortgage rates have increased over recent months

Source: CoreLogic, RBA

Standard variable mortgage rates over time


Disclaimer

29

In compiling this publication, RP Data Pty Ltd trading as CoreLogic has relied upon information supplied by a number of external sources. CoreLogic does not warrant its accuracy or

completeness and to the full extent allowed by law excludes liability in contract, tort or otherwise, for any loss or damage sustained by subscribers, or by any other person or body

corporate arising from or in connection with the supply or use of the whole or any part of the information in this publication through any cause whatsoever and limits any liability it

may have to the amount paid to CoreLogic for the supply of such information.

Queensland Data

Based on or contains data provided by the State of Queensland (Department of Natural Resources and Mines) 2018. In consideration of the State permitting use of this data you acknowledge and

agree that the State gives no warranty in relation to the data (including accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency or suitability) and accepts no liability (including without limitation, liability in

negligence) for any loss, damage or costs (including consequential damage) relating to any use of the data. Data must not be used for direct marketing or be used in breach of the privacy laws.

South Australian Data

This information is based on data supplied by the South Australian Government and is published by permission. The South Australian Government does not accept any responsibility for the

accuracy or completeness of the published information or suitability for any purpose of the published information or the underlying data.

New South Wales Data

Contains property sales information provided under licence from the Land and Property Information (“LPI”). CoreLogic is authorised as a Property Sales Information provider by the LPI.

Victorian Data

The State of Victoria owns the copyright in the Property Sales Data which constitutes the basis of this report and reproduction of that data in any way without the consent of the State of Victoria will

constitute a breach of the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth). The State of Victoria does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report and any person using or relying

upon such information does so on the basis that the State of Victoria accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any errors, faults, defects or omissions in the information supplied.

Western Australian Data

Based on information provided by and with the permission of the Western Australian Land Information Authority (2019) trading as Landgate.

Australian Capital Territory Data

The Territory Data is the property of the Australian Capital Territory. No part of it may in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, microcopying, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be

reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted without prior written permission. Enquiries should be directed to: Director, Customer Services ACT Planning and Land Authority GPO Box

1908 Canberra ACT 2601.

Tasmanian Data

This product incorporates data that is copyright owned by the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The data has been used in the product with the permission of the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The

Crown in Right of Tasmania and its employees and agents:

a) give no warranty regarding the data's accuracy, completeness, currency or suitability for any particular purpose; and

b) do not accept liability howsoever arising, including but not limited to negligence for any loss resulting from the use of or reliance upon the data.

Base data from the LIST © State of Tasmania http://www.thelist.tas.gov.au

© 2019 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. Our Insights. Your Story. 30

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Our Insights. Your Story. - Property Data Reports ......Residential Real Estate Underpins Australia’s Wealth As at the end of January 2019 Residential Real Estate $6.2* Trillion