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OSRAM Licht AG
Analyst Call on the Earnings Release for the 2nd quarter 2018
May 3, 2018 | 14:00 CEST
Speakers:
Andreas Spitzauer
Olaf Berlien
Ingo Bank
Andreas Spitzauer Thank you, operator. Good afternoon as well as good morning,
ladies and gentlemen. My name is Andreas Spitzauer, head of
investor relations of Osram and I want to welcome you to
Osram's conference call for our Q2 2018 results. As a reminder,
the conference call will be recorded and is available on our home
page, www.osram-group/investorrelations.com. You can find
today's presentation there as well. It is now my pleasure to turn
over the call to Dr Olaf Berlien, the CEO, Ingo Bank, the CFO
and Dr Stefan Kampmann, the CTO of Osram. Please go ahead,
Olaf.
Olaf Berlien Yes, thank you, Andreas. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to our
conference call. As usual I would like to start by giving you a brief
overview. A look at the first half of our fiscal year shows that we
faced tougher markets and a more challenging environment. In
addition the foreign exchange development was not in our
favour. Nevertheless we are pushing ahead with our growth
strategy and continue to strengthen our market position as a
high-tech company.
I think we need to take into consideration that the technological
shift in our industry and in our company is an ongoing
transformation. The switch from traditional lighting to LED and
now to the digital technologies has some way to go.
In this context we have made an important strategic decision
with regard to the LSS segment. We have initiated the
divestment process of our service business in the United States.
This represents roughly 10% of the LSS sales but it was the
biggest loss-maker last year.
In Europe we are reducing complexity in production and logistic
networks within LS. By summer 2018 we are aiming for a
simplified structure. That means one plant, one warehouse, one
IT platform and one headquarter. However the strategic review
of the remaining part of LS is ongoing and, as I said in November,
is expected to be finalised in fall.
Ladies and gentlemen, let me now start with a look at the quarter
just ended on slide number four. In the period January to March
we generated a modest increase in revenue on a comparable
basis of almost 2%. Earnings from currency effects increased
since Q1. On an absolute basis foreign exchange lowered sales
by nearly 90 million. In the first half year currency headwinds
amounted to roughly 150 million with an EBITDA margin of over
15%. Our profitability stayed at a high level in Q2. Currency
effects of about 30 million were the main reason for the decrease
year over year; also ramp-up cost and higher research and
development impacted our profitability.
Capex and free cashflow developed as expected. Last week we
adjusted our guidance for the current fiscal year as a result of
weaker markets and currency burdens and that brings me to
slide number five.
With regard to global automotive production we are anticipating
an improvement in the second half of the year. Based on IHS
prediction this expectation should support our ambition of a
higher growth in the second half of 2018, especially as LED
penetration continues to grow. At the same time, you maybe
remember that the fiscal year 2017 we had to allocate production
output to our automotive customer base. This was due to the
extremely strong demand.
In some cases customers therefore had to qualify competitors
as additional sources. As a result some have now increased their
share of wallet with customers but let me stress however that we
did not lose customers. I am very confident that we are well-
positioned to fight back with innovative products and new
technologies.
In contrast, the construction industry in North America remains
challenging. Our customer has been suffering from these effects
for several quarters now. We do not expect that this situation will
improve and therefore do not anticipate much change in the
second half of the year. Additionally we experienced a disruption
in the utility support system of our plant for electronic ballast in
Bulgaria. Production had to be stopped for several days in
February. This negatively impacted our deliveries and reduced
revenue was close to €10 million. Thankfully we are now back
on track.
This takes me now to our OS business and to slide number six.
OS should move into a more normalised market situation in the
second half of the year. Our delivery times and our customers'
inventories are back to normal levels in the automotive segment.
As a result our Opto business target's to return to a double-digit
revenue growth in the second half of the year.
Currently we are ramping up our LED capacities. We have
started to ship product from our new facility in Kulim. First
customers were for example Opple Lighting from China or US-
based Kenall and let me share another positive message with
you today.
To have continuity in OS we have decided that our CTO, Dr
Stefan Kampmann, will take the role as an acting CEO of OS.
Aldo Kamper will say until August and he will support Stefan in
the whole time. Meanwhile a succession plan is running.
As you can see on slide seven, we are also stepping up our
activities in growth markets where digitalisation is the main
driver. As a result of the Osram/Continental joint venture for
example we will be among those shaping the future of mobility
and cutting-edge lighting solutions.
In the horticulture sector, as I showed you on page number
seven, we are an established player already today and we aim
to expand our leadership position. Horticulture presents big
market opportunities, particularly in light of growing organisation
and the growing population and thanks to VCSEL technology we
are able to expand our product portfolio. In short we are
successfully executing our strategy of profitable growth based
upon... of our three-pillar strategy.
Let me start with SP on slide eight. We announced that we were
looking to tap into the opportunities being presented by the
growing integration of light, electronics and sensors in modern
vehicles. To that end, Osram will provide intelligent lighting
solutions in partnership with Continental. The agreement to
create Osram Continental GmbH was signed in late March. We
expect anti-trust approval in late summer.
On page number nine you see that the joint venture will play a
key role with speciality lighting towards innovation and growth.
We are confident that this partnership will result in a strong
position within a growing market. In the medium term we expect
revenue could reach a level of around €1 billion. The target range
for the adjusted EBITDA margin is between 12 and 14%.
Let me continue with speciality lighting on slide number ten.
Today we also announced that we will expand our existing
horticulture portfolio through the acquisition of US-based
Fluence. Fluence is one of the world's leading providers of smart
lighting for horticulture. This acquisition and our horticulture tech
portfolio could open the door to a potential big future market that
is expected to grow with more than 25% year over year.
Given our strong position in the horticulture market today - what
I'll show you on slide number 11 - we target a double Fluence
revenue over the coming years. Fluence's profound knowledge
of the market and the applications combined with our expertise
in lighting, sensors and connectivity could make us a leading
system provider.
Turning to slide number 12, you will see that we are also
delivering on our strategic direction in our OS unit. So by
acquiring Vixar - and I am now with page number 12 - a company
in Minnesota, we have added a promising new building-block to
our technology portfolio. With the Vixar technology we have
acquired a substantial amount of potential that could elevate our
Opto semiconductor business further.
Page 13 shows you that to date we are all well-positioned in two-
dimensional sensing. Our infra-red components are already
designed in smartphones or tablets. Other than a password, a
fingerprint or even an iris scan, facial recognition is another
convenient method for identification. 3D sensing will open up
new areas of application for us and for our customers and it will
pave the way for ultra-compact 3D facial recognitions. The way
in which Vixar technology captures 3D environmental data has
a broad set of applications. It includes augmented reality or lidar
and autonomous driving.
Already today Osram is a market and technology leader for laser
chips and lidar systems. On lidar we have now accumulated
more than 20 design-ins and wins. We're clearly the market
leader in the segment. We believe it's entirely possible that
revenue in this business could rise to between two and €300
million in the coming years.
So let's move to page number 15. On slide 15 I would like to take
a look at our third pillar, the business with lighting solutions and
systems. As I mentioned in my opening, Osram has repeatedly
indicated that we're working on improving the performance of our
Illuminate business. It is important to distinguish three business
segments within our LS business.
In Asia, particularly in China, trends such as city beautification
provide us with good growth opportunities going forward. Just
this week we won a city beautification project with dynamic
lighting at a value of over seven million in China.
In Europe, especially in the German-speaking countries, we
have initiated structural measures. I have mentioned them in the
beginning. And then the third segment, the service business in
the United States; we are now looking for a buyer for this
business. We are currently in the initial phase of exploring
interest in the market. As said, this is just a first step.
At the same time we believe that the second part of our reporting
segment, LSS, the business focused on smart components for
lighting controls, has the potential to benefit from the trend of
smart buildings, which is why we strengthened our business with
the acquisition of the Trilux subsidiary, BAG Electronics.
BAG specialise in electronic ballast and LED modules. Osram
Digital Systems won for example seven important awards.
Ladies and gentlemen, I move now to slide number six and as
you can see we are clearly shifting our focus to fast-growing,
high-tech markets. In parallel we still generate one-third of our
revenue with traditional products. Therefore we have to adjust
our cost base in line with the sales development in these
traditional product segments. For that reason we have initiated
several performance programmes in order to secure long-term
profitability so let me illustrate this with the two main measures.
Firstly on page number 16, as a result of a benchmark analysis
we run a Lean headquarter project to reduce our overhead costs
by 20%. Secondly, we will increase our manufacturing
productivity and it is the first step. Both measures should result
in gross savings up to 50 million per year.
So, ladies and gentleman, let me summarise and let me close
with a brief summary. Our strategy works and we will continue to
execute. That means we continue to strive towards technology
leadership and growth. Long-term global trends are working in
our favour, confirming that our strategy is the right one. As our
LED share grows rapidly we developed more and more into a
high-tech company. So far from my side, thanks for listening and
then I hand over to Ingo.
Ingo Bank Thank you, Olaf, and good afternoon. Thank you for joining us
today. Let me provide you with more details on the company's
financial results in the second quarter of fiscal year 2018 and I'm
moving to slide number 19 now.
In the second quarter of 18 substantial foreign exchange
headwinds and a less favourable market environment left their
imprints on the company's financials, both in terms of top and
bottom lines. Comparable growth came in at 1.8%. We saw good
growth in general lighting for Opto and the after-market business
in SP so destocking for auto LED components continued well
into the second quarter.
Unchanged from prior quarters, the market environment in the
US and in Europe did not improve. Adjusted EBITDA came in at
15.1%, negatively impacted by the strengthening euro,
accounting for 130 basis points' difference to prior year's quarter.
Higher R&D spend of around 130 basis points accounted for the
balance of the difference to fiscal year 2017.
Capex was €151 million in the quarter, reflecting the footprint-
related investments in Opto, not just for Kulim but also
Regensburg and Wuxi. As a result, free cashflow was negative
with €132 million, as expected. Reported EPS was at €0.46,
lower than prior year by €0.35. Approximately €0.19 of the
difference to Q2 fiscal year 17 are due to a stronger euro, €0.08
related to higher depreciation and €0.05 to special items.
Adjusted EPS was €0.63. Special items in the quarter amounted
to €19 million, in line with expectations.
Let's take a closer look at the revenue growth picture for the
second quarter of 18 on slide number 20. The weakening of the
US dollar against the euro continued to weigh heavily on our
nominal sales and nominal growth in the quarter of all of our
reporting segments, even more so than in our first quarter of the
current fiscal year. At group level the 15% year over year
appreciation of the euro versus the dollar had a substantial
negative impact of approximately €87 million, impacting normal
growth negatively with 830 basis points. The total benefits from
changes in our business portfolio contributed 280 basis points to
the year over year growth.
Looking at the geographies at the lower right of the chart we see
that EMEA growth turned negative in the second quarter. The
market environment for LSS continued to be very challenging,
particularly for our traditional ballast business. The decline in the
SP's OEM business for traditional light sources, especially
xenon, continued to be in the low double digits.
APAC growth was driven by Opto and LSS. In LSS we saw the
positive growth momentum in our dynamic lighting business
continue well into the second quarter. Opto's growth in APAC
was driven by general lighting, as well as industry and mobile
devices. Growth in the Americas was still positive but slowed
down compared to the first quarter of fiscal year 18. Growth was
good for our SP after-market business, in line with typical
seasonality. The overall OEM business for SB in the USA
declined, pointing still to a demanding overall auto market in that
region.
Moving on to profitability in Q2 on slide 21. At a margin of 15.1%
we delivered €153 million in absolute adjusted EBITDA. Osram
adjusted EBITDA margin for the quarter came in 230 basis points
lower compared to the same quarter a year ago. Foreign
exchange, higher R&D expense and ramp-up costs were the
main drivers for the difference to prior year's quarter.
As you can see in the bridge to the upper right of this slide,
foreign exchange had a substantial negative absolute impact of
€28 million net in the quarter, translating into a 130-basis-point
headwind in margin. R&D was higher with €13 million, driving
130 basis points of the year-on-year reduction in the adjusted
EBITDA margin. Ramp-up expenses continued to weigh on the
results of Opto and Osram.
Volume growth was able to offset only some of those headwinds.
Adjusted EBITDA in corporate items was negative with €17
million. Special items this quarter amounted to €19 million, in line
with expectations.
On slide number 22 you see summarised the performance for
our business units. Let me start with Opto. Opto's revenue
growth was driven by APAC and the Americas with a further
expansion of our general lighting business and good growth in
our industry and mobile devices business. Our overall Opto
business in EMEA did not grow in the second quarter when
compared to the same period a year ago as destocking for auto
LED components continued.
Opto's adjusted EBITDA profitability was impacted by the
stronger euro, increased R&D spend and higher ramp-up cost.
When adjusting for the impact of foreign exchange, Opto's
adjusted EBITDA margins would have been closer to 28%.
Opto expects an improvement of its automotive LED business in
the second half. Also based on the expectation, the growth rates
of global automotive production will become more favourable.
Olaf showed the latest IHS estimate in this regard earlier on slide
five.
SP; comparable growth turned slightly negative in the quarter.
Business in our OEM channel with traditional light sources,
particularly xenon, continued to decline at a low-double-digit clip.
Growth in LED components and modules was muted as
customers were still destocking. Therefore less components
have been sold between Opto and SD as well. The after-market
performance was strong and in line with seasonal expectations.
Profitability in SP was negatively impacted by foreign exchange,
driving 50% of the difference in adjusted EBITDA margin when
comparing to the same quarter a year ago.
Moving on to LSS, growth in LSS continued to be challenged by
a weak market in EMEA and an accelerated volume decline in
traditional ballasts, not just in Europe but also in the US. Our
service business continued to grow in the US as an improved
order book drove a good revenue growth in the quarter. In
addition - and as Olaf pointed out earlier - we encountered a
temporary shutdown in our Plovdiv facility in Bulgaria, leaving
sales short by almost €10 million. In the meantime production
performance has improved.
Underlying overall market exceptions in the US and in Europe
have not changed meaningfully. We do not expect a near-term
recovery, echoing also what customers and competitors have
stated publicly in the course of recent weeks. Overall lower
volumes and a stronger price competition, particularly for
traditional electronic ballasts, continued to put pressure on the
revenue and profitability of LSS. We recorded approximately €9
million special items for LSS in Q2 18, largely related to
restructuring and transformation charges to improve our cost
base.
Moving on to cashflow on slide 23, free cashflow in the quarter
came in as expected at a negative €132 million, largely driven
by our capital expenditure plans for Opto. Net working capital
increased due to higher inventory levels, which we expect to
come down to normalised levels in the course of the second half
of our fiscal year. Trade payables reduced in line with a lower
quarterly capex spending pattern.
Let me now turn to earnings per share and net liquidity on slide
24. Reported diluted EPS in Q2 18 was €0.46, down compared
to Q2 17, significantly impacted by foreign exchange, accounting
for approximately €0.19 of the difference. Adjusted EPS for the
quarter was €0.30 lower than in the same period of last year,
coming in at €0.63. Our corporate income tax rate was
unchanged at approximately 28%.
Our net liquidity reduced to €63 million at the end of the quarter
with the main drivers being our capex spend in the quarter and
the pay-out of our dividend for fiscal year 2017.
Let me now change perspective and look forward on slide 25. As
a result of ongoing headwinds from foreign exchange and a
rather muted sales performance in Q2 18 we adjusted our
outlook for fiscal year 2018 last week. We now expect to grow
between three and 5% for the year, reflecting an uneven market
situation on the one hand and the expectations of an improving
automotive business for LED components in the second half of
fiscal year 18 on the other hand. The three to 5% is on a
comparable basis.
Against this backdrop of a lower full fiscal year 2018, revenue
outlook and continued headwinds from foreign exchange, we
have adjusted our outlook for profitability accordingly last week.
We now expect adjusted EBITDA for fiscal year 18 to be at
around €640 million for the year. In line with this adjustment in
profitability and continued unfavourable foreign exchange we
now expect EPS to be between €1.90 and €2.10 for fiscal year
18.
Our original guidance for special items for fiscal year 18 was 70
to €80 million. It is unchanged and incorporated in the guidance.
Please note however that the communicated extraordinary
expense of between 60 to €70 million for performance
programmes is not yet reflected in the guidance, given the
related uncertainty around the duration of discussions between
the relevant stakeholders.
Thank you for your attention and Olaf and myself are now
looking forward to your questions.
Operator Ladies and gentlemen, at this time we will begin the question
and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may
press * followed by 1 on their touch-tone telephone. If you wish
to remove yourself from the question queue you may press *
followed by 2. If you are using speaker equipment today please
lift the handset before making your selection. Anyone who has a
question may press * followed by 1 at this time.
The first question is from the line of Sven Weier with UBS.
Please go ahead.
Sven Weier Yes, good afternoon, thanks for taking my questions. There
would be three. Maybe you can answer them one-by-one. The
first question is just on what you think in terms of your organic
growth rate for Opto beyond this year. I think you gave quite
some evidence for your expectation for the second half, to return
to double-digit and I know it's probably a bit early to talk next
year but what's your confidence in general in the Opto business
when we think a little bit further in terms of the achievable growth
rate that you see? That would be the first one. Thank you.
Olaf Berlien Okay, hi, Sven; here's Olaf. A valid question but, as you said, we
are still in the first phase of analysing 2019 but I still can confirm
that we expect a low double-digit growth rate.
Sven Weier Okay, thanks for that. The second question is on your acquisition
in the VCSEL space and I was just wondering; the company
you're buying there; are they focusing on a special segment of
the VCSEL market, focusing on consumer or any potential
specific strengths here and any design hints that they have
already?
Olaf Berlien I think that, as you know, the VCSEL technology, the face
recognition is mainly running in these days in mobile phones. It's
moving more and more to other consumer products like tablets
and PCs. I expect that the VCSEL technology will move as soon
as possible in more automotive applications so if you would take
a look on my chart on page - give me a second before I'm talking
- if you would take a look to page 30 you will see that we see that
the driver monitoring for autonomous driving, the lidar; we see
application and smart glasses.
So a lot of new applications will come up and Vixar; we are
working with Vixar a long time ago and together with Vixar we
are in design wins for new applications and of course Vixar
already had orders and design wins from customers in the
United States mainly. So I think it's a great market, I think it's a
booming market and overall I think Osram is now very well-
placed that we have 2D sensing, we have now 3D sensing, we
have the infrared, the iris scan, the fingerprint and now the facial
recognition.
Sven Weier And then in terms of - you know, this is obviously a fabulous
company at the moment. I mean, how quickly do you intend to
make these things internally then?
Olaf Berlien What do you mean with internally?
Sven Weier Because I think, you know, currently Vixar has outsourced the
production, yes, of the chips, right. It's a fabless company, I
guess. Would you also plan to make the VCSELs yourself then
at some point in the future?
Olaf Berlien I know that always my voice is recorded from my competition so
I'm carefully... what I'm saying. So Vixar today is producing in a
foundry so they are fabless. If we maybe would use the Vixar
chips in Kulim that could be possible.
Sven Weier Okay. And the other question I had; you were talking obviously
about, you know, the situation in Opto last year where you had
some potential share losses at you customers. I was wondering,
to what extent has this also been influenced by your decision on
the Conti JV; what feedback are you getting from your tier-one
customers; is that also leading to some losses or is it so far not
a big impact?
Olaf Berlien No, that's not a big impact. I think that what happened is really
what happened always if you have the situation that you cannot
deliver what your customer's asking for. So what you typically
do; you try to get second or third sources and that happened,
that we lost some share so we are talking really a small share
but that's openly - we lost some shares but as I said, we did not
lose one single customer and - but I'm quite confident that with
new products and new innovations I'm coming back to get the
old part of my share of wallet.
And to make it clear, I did not lose this share to any Chinese one.
Sven Weier And it's not that the Conti JV really has a negative side-effect on
[overtalking].
Olaf Berlien No. I can tell you really, I was - ten days ago I was in Japan and
I had very good discussions with our customer, Koito and
Stanley, and they're definitely not afraid because I'm not in their
garden. You know, it's a new way that now in the past you had
the set-maker with the set and you had the light source and now
the new trend is that you have electronics, software and
components in both companies like Osram, like Conti, like
Stanley, like Koito, like Hella are moving in this new field so you
can come from both sides; they are in my garden or I am in their
garden.
So they're customers, they are clients and I did not lose any
share to these major clients in the automotive set-maker
business.
Sven Weier So the reason for the somewhat lower organic growth in the full
year is basically because the underlying car production hasn't
expanded as much as you would have sought but not because
you're not gaining back the market share as quickly as you
sought.
Ingo Bank Hi, Sven, this is Ingo. Yes, I mean, as Olaf explained, we had
higher hopes for the second quarter as far as Opto is concerned;
that didn't happen for the reason he just outlined. We are more
positive about the second half of the year based on both order
intake that we've seen as well as the IHS production forecast so
that gives us a bit more confidence moving into the second half.
Sven Weier Okay. Thank you both.
Ingo Bank Thanks, Sven.
Operator And the next question is from the line of Uwe Schupp with
Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Uwe Schupp Yes, good afternoon, gentlemen; two questions, please. Firstly
just following up on Sven's question, you mentioned on the press
call that you already had some discussions with also leading
smartphone makers regarding the Vixar side for 3D sensing.
Just to - clarification really - is that already potentially for
launches, for smartphone launches of your customers in 2019 or
is that a bit too early and do you rather see this 2019 or rather
beyond, ie, in 2020?
And then secondly it sounds like the Opto growth also had some
impact also on the ramp overall of Kulim and so assuming that
would be the case and assuming that the second phase of Kulim
is now maybe planned a bit later than originally, my question
would be, is there, you know, potential for or a plan for a potential
new share buyback programme given, you know, the lower
share price and the fact that you did buy shares in here on the
last buyback one-and-a-half years ago? Thank you.
Ingo Bank Okay. Coming to my first question, usually - I should move it to
Stefan; he's the new CEO of Opto. But what I can say - and I will
- both of us - we will not talk about a customer. So what I can say
is that we are quite confident that this will happen in 19 and the
years after 19 so what we are designing in is something for 19.
The second question is, was... I don't see really the relation
between a share buyback and the Kulim phase two. What I can
say is - and that we are much more productive in Kulim phase
one. That means that we have - that we will run a machine
concept in this phase that we are - we need less space and for
this reason it looks like that we have a much higher productivity
in phase one than we originally expected and for this reason we
can save additional space.
But this doesn't mean that we are running with the new share
buyback programme so as you see, I think we would like to
spend the money in growth and that was the reason we
announced this morning really the company Vixar and the really
important VCSEL technology and the other one, Fluence, in the
horticulture as well. So we are spending the money in growth.
Uwe Schupp Just to follow up on your - on my - on the first question if I may;
you indicated in your prepared remarks that Vixar already had
some customers or one customer in the US. Is that the same
customer that you're having discussions with regarding a
potential 2019 launch or would that be coming more from your
end rather than from Vixar?
Olaf Berlien Not bad; trying to [overtalking]...
Ingo Bank Good try, Uwe.
Olaf Berlien Good try, Uwe. They don't have only one customer; they have
more than one customer but I said they had mainly US customer
so they definitely have more than one and they have more than
ten so I think it's a quite good company, I think it's a great move
and as I said, we are working with a huge customer for a new
product and for this reason I said I expect sales between 200
and 300 million.
Uwe Schupp And you would be confident in being able to ramp 2019 launch
of a volume smartphone by one of the leading makers.
Olaf Berlien Yes. But, Stefan, that's your homeground.
Stefan Kampmann Yes, but you have now answered Uwe's question. Uwe, I only
can confirm for 2019, yes.
Uwe Schupp Very clear; thank you very much.
Operator Next question is from the line of Charlotte Friedrich with
Berenberg. Please go ahead.
Charlotte Friedrich Hello, thank you for taking my question. First question is, can
you maybe quantify the amount of wallet that you lost in the
automotive area and how much of that you will be able to recover
in the second half? Then maybe can you also comment maybe
on the order book for Opto this year and then maybe a few
comments on the general lighting market; what are the price and
volume dynamics here? Thank you.
Olaf Berlien I'll hand over to Ingo.
Ingo Bank Thank you, yes. Well, obviously we cannot completely disclose
how much share we lost. I think you should think about a low-
single-digit percentage number in that sense and again, I think
it's important to also understand that at any given moment, if you
look at our order books, particularly for automotive as well,
there's always some float within the quarter. You don't open a
quarter with a fully covered order book for that business and then
therefore, as Olaf said, we're quite confident that over time we
will be able to recover as we've gained market share also back
in the past from others as well so I don't think that's a longer-
term issue for us probably.
I can't tell you and I won't tell you what the exact order book is
and you can imagine then when we said that we are looking to
the second half in a more positive way, that is certainly based on
some of the order book developments we've seen in the recent
months.
Charlotte Friedrich Okay, thank you. And the general lighting market and maybe
also an update on when you expect to have more news on the
rest of LS so the Asian city beautification business and the
European luminaires.
Ingo Bank Let me comment on general lighting and then hand it over to Olaf
on LS. So general lighting was a good growth driver for us in the
second quarter for Opto. As you said, we are focusing mainly on,
let's say, the professional segment in the general lighting space
and, as Olaf pointed out in his prepared remarks, we've had the
first shipments in the second quarter so - and the ramp in Kulim
is on track.
As we pointed out earlier, if you look at the ramp in the second
half, a lot of that ramp will be to insource what we previously
outsourced with third parties. Therefore we will fill Kulim but it will
not always be visible in our external revenue for that reason.
Overall you have seen also some comments from other bigger
lighting players that especially on auto lighting and street lighting
in the United States and Europe there's somewhat of a lower
outlook in the second half than previously so therefore we will
also see that somewhat in how we will load the Kulim factory.
But I think we had a very good start and we're very much looking
forward to continue the ramp and also replace what we
previously outsourced.
Olaf Berlien Coming to your second question of the LS and the city
beautification, that is clearly a market in Asia, mainly in China so
I think we have a good standing, a good market share, we are
clearly a leader in this area and we had in the LS segment in
Asia really a double-digit growth in our last quarter and as I said,
we've won now another project over seven million some days
ago so that's in the third quarter so I'm very optimistic that we
will be very successful for this area in Asia.
City beautification in Europe is not the case so mainly the
business of LS in Europe is street lighting...
Charlotte Friedrich I mean, yes, that's what I meant, yes.
Olaf Berlien It's luminaires and professional so city beautification is nothing
for Europe mainly.
Charlotte Friedrich No, what I meant was when will you have an update on the
strategic evaluation of those two businesses so the Asian city
beautification and the European luminaires because you have
given us an update on the US services business.
Olaf Berlien I send absolutely what I said in my guidance and the - from
November 2017; I said we'll take our time and we will latest come
up with a final decision in fall 2018 so I think the first step is now
the service. That was the biggest pressure and I think it's good
that we start with the service business and with the luminaires
business we will make a final decision in fall.
Charlotte Friedrich Okay, perfect, thank you very much.
Operator Next question is from the line of Michael Hagmann with HSBC.
Please go ahead.
Michael Hagmann Thank you very much. Two questions if I may; one would be
about the pricing across Opto so I was wondering if you could -
maybe current pricing environment or the pricing trend or the
trajectory - put that into a historical context; are we seeing an
acceleration in the price decline across Opto? If you think it
makes more sense to look at price mix in that context I'd equally
be happy to take an answer on that one.
And then following on on the question about the remaining part
of LS or the remaining parts of LSS, if you could maybe outline
to us why you would want to keep those businesses, ie, what
would Osram as a group lose by not owning LSS in its entirety
or at least the LS part; thank you.
Olaf Berlien Okay, let me start with the first one, with LS and then Ingo will
talk about your question. So coming to LS, I think I clearly really
said since 2017 that we - 15 - that we have LS on our watchlist
and I think we - the best one from the shareholder point of view
is that we create value, that we make the restructuring on our
hand. If we would divert LS in the time when you have losses
you will have - there's nobody in a market who will buy it. I think
the best one is make your homework, bring it in the right direction
and then we can talk about...
And as I said, we reduced really the complexity, we put a lot of
workforce out of the Traunreut factory last year and this year. We
reduced complexity that we - instead of two factories we have
now one concentrated in Europe; we have now one warehouse
and we moved. In the past we had two headquarters, part of the
headquarter was in Munich and the other part was in Traunreut.
We will move the whole Munich one for LS to Traunreut so
reduce complexity, make it Leaner, work on your product
portfolio, bring it back to profitability and I think then that's the
best way to talk about it. Again if we would do it last year or this
year nobody will pay you really a high amount. And then
coming...
Michael Hagmann Excuse me, can I just interject here?
Olaf Berlien Yes.
Michael Hagmann I understand all of that. The question was really, what would you
lose, like what would Opto and SP lose by not being part of the
same group as LSS or LS.
Olaf Berlien Nothing. It wouldn't lose anything because they're really fully
independent. The luminaires business is a different business
than the semiconductor business or the automotive business so
it is a pillar in the group and for this reason we said, let's think
about a strategic option and I will come back in the next five to
four months - as I said, in fall we will have a final decision on
that.
Michael Hagmann Very clear, thank you.
Ingo Bank And then coming back to your position on pricing, we have not
really seen any significant changes in the pricing environment
for Opto. We've seen here and there some attempts to get into
some of the automotive customers with some price proposals
from some competitors but that's more here and there. That's not
a broad-based assault, if you like, from a pricing perspective so
there we don't see any major new dynamics that we haven't seen
before.
Michael Hagmann Thank you.
Operator And the next question is from the line of James Moore with
Redburn. Please go ahead.
James Moore Yes, hi, Olaf, Ingo; thanks for taking my questions. Maybe I'll go
one at a time as well. I wonder if we could talk about Vixar; why
Vixar and not another VCSEL player, what IP do they have that's
special and why do you think sales will double every year, is that
a faster growth rate than the market? That's the first question.
Olaf Berlien Okay. The answer is Vixar; as I said, we are working with Vixar
since a long time so Vixar is nothing new on our watchlist. We're
working together on a customer project and for this reason we
decided to put it in our portfolio so that was the reason. We are
partners since a long time and maybe, Stefan... I think they have
great IP rights, they have a great technology portfolio and I think
together we have good projects in the pipeline.
Stefan Kampmann I think, Olaf, as you said, we - due to this long-term co-operation
with Vixar we knew them very well. We know basically their
competencies, we know their technology portfolio, we know their
applications, we know their customers and future customers and
future projects and when the opportunity came up to basically
talk about an acquisition it was a perfect fit and the growth rate
which you mentioned; I think the positioning of that company with
the application Olaf mentioned before; it's a good foundation for
this growth which we are expecting and the numbers which Olaf
mentioned before are very rational.
Olaf Berlien And as the first question was from Sven, we have maybe the
capacity...
James Moore Thank you. And also on your savings programme I wondered if
you could help with the timing and the phasing of the savings
that you expect to get. I know there's some degree of uncertainty
on the charge but assuming you got the charge in at the end of
the year what sort of timetable are we talking about for the
savings?
Olaf Berlien That's good. Ingo will talk about... and I'm coming to the savings,
okay? Ingo?
Ingo Bank Yes, from a timing perspective, as we said, we didn't incorporate
into the guide because we don't have full certainty that the
discussions between stakeholders will finalise within the current
fiscal year.
I believe we're quite confident it will finish within the calendar
year and as we flagged the discussion... because we didn't want
to wait to have those discussions started. And obviously if you
look at savings - and Olaf'll tell you a little bit more about this -
the savings can only start when we've agreed and we've signed
an agreement with our colleagues from the employment front so
then once that is clear I think we will also communicate how the
savings will move in and they will definitely not just come in in a
single year and it will be different types of Osram so there will be
different plans for different locations over time. But I don't know
- it's a bit too early to now talk exactly about the phasing across
quarters, etc.
Olaf Berlien And so you know, what we try to do is, you know, that you have
lot of different ways to communicate it. You can do it with a big
bang and make a lot of noise. Our concept is working on this
concept, making not so much noise but being successful in the
implementation so we're working, as I said - and you see it on
the chart - on our worldwide footprint and the salesforce to make
it Leaner and more effective.
We reduce the headcount in our Lean headquarter and in our
headquarter. I think we benchmarked every single function and
I think we will come up with benchmark cost base. We worked
additionally - you see it in the third pillar; it's that we streamline
and make Leaner our business units and their overheads and
we worked on the transformation of our plants.
So a lot of different programmes, performance programmes and,
as Ingo said, really our culture is to talk first of all with the
workers' union, with the union and with the workforce and that's
what will happen now in the next 14 days.
James Moore Thanks, and the last question really revolves around the revenue
growth potential of the group over the next couple of years and
thank you for your earlier comment about low-double-digit in
Opto. But I wondered if we could circle back to your 2020 five on
five and can I ask where they now post a profit warning that
there's a redundant medium-term target and perhaps more
specifically you did put the green overlay of the pie chart - I don't
know - six months ago about the revenue potential for Kulim and
I understand the first year is in-sourcing the outsourced but could
you talk a little bit about what a rough picture for Kulim revenues
by the end of the decade looks like now?
Olaf Berlien Yes, I know and understand your question and of course it's valid
but I think we have a number of puts and takes and that's what
you said; changes in our portfolio, M&A announcement like
today, on the other hand, that we try to sell something; the joint
venture with Conti.
So our 2020 guidance is based on the positive long-term market
trends, our strong product portfolio and our strong market
position, all of which are still valid so in this case we stay to the
2020 targets with the whole team. I know it's more ambitious
than maybe in the past but, as I said, there are puts and takes
and that's the reason we think we will make it.
James Moore Thanks, and on the Kulim my sense was eight, 900 was a
number for the end of the decade when you discussed it last. Is
that broadly still the same picture?
Ingo Bank Well, I think we should first see how Kulim is ramping as we said
on a number of occasions that the ramp-up plan is completely in
line with what we said earlier. Olaf already also said that we're
looking at a plan right now; we can basically even better utilise
already our first building there to put more capacity in there
without the need to put in a second building and be more capex-
sales-effective, if you like, and also look at a more positive
cashflow picture over the next two years.
So those are the things that are ongoing right now and I think it's
premature now to call out a number or anything. The revenue
potential for Kulim is still valid, absolutely. I think the fact that
we've been able to sell products already in the second quarter
to clients that have not been our clients in the past is, I think,
very encouraging. I'm also looking forward to the second half so
from that perspective I don't think it makes a lot of sense now to
break it down in Kulim, etc, but overall the plans we have for
Kulim are still developing according to plan.
James Moore Thank you very much.
Operator Next question is from the line of Alok Katre with Societe
Generale. Please go ahead.
Alok Katre Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. I have three, if I may; one by
one. Firstly in terms of - you know, stepping back, in terms of
your overall sort of capacities, clearly you sort of struggled a little
bit with capacity in the later part of sort of last year and then we
had obviously your softer automotive sort of market, etc, and
then obviously smartphones; there're some question marks
around smartphone sales nowadays.
But I mean, if we look at all of your end market sort of demand
sort of environment, how confident are you about the capacity
expansion at Regensburg? And then also in that sort of same
breath, if you also talk a little bit about how we should think about
phase one ramp-up at Kulim and then phase two as well and so
what gives you the confidence behind some of these capacity
expansions; that was question one.
Olaf Berlien Yes. Hi, Katre. I think, to make really a quick answer, I'm very
confident about the Regensburg expansion. It is red so that
means red LEDs; they're moving. We have capacity issues; that
means we do not have enough capacity and I'm really looking
forward to get this capacity. And maybe to add on, if you would
think about this VCSEL technology, this is based on red so - and
this is not already in Regensburg. We do not want to produce it
in Regensburg but the red capacity is limited and I'm quite
confident.
Alok Katre Okay, fair enough. And on the auto side is - you know, are you
confident that you have enough design or platform wins that
would back up this capacity as well, potentially even at Kulim? I
think there's been obviously plans for auto LEDs.
Ingo Bank Hi. So I think we need to be careful that we don't mix up things
here. First of all the auto is right now in the process of
qualification in Kulim. That typically takes up to 12, 15 months;
you have to do it on a customer-by-customer base, for instance,
but we're very confident that we will be able to accomplish that
so the expectation is that starting with calendar year 19 we will
be able to probably start shipping automotive-related product out
of that facility in Kulim so that, I think, is the basis of - well, you
need to qualify first before you start production obviously.
As I said before, the order intake we saw in the second quarter
points to a betterment in the second half of this fiscal year. As
Olaf said, we visited a lot of customers in the recent couple of
weeks and we got still very, very positive feedback from our
automotive customers so from that perspective we are quite
confident that our automotive business will continue to grow well
in the future.
Alok Katre Okay. Fair enough. And then just in terms of the working capital
side of things, you know, you obviously - there's been an
inventory build-up and you're expecting, let's say, a roll-back of
that inventory build-up in the second half of the year as well. How
should we - I mean, just thinking in terms of... Obviously we -
you'd sort of probably seen customers destocking through the
quarter so how should we sort of then think in that background
of the inventory increase clearly in Opto in the second quarter?
Is it sort of, should we think about it as you're preparing for
second-half growth or, let's say, is it just to avoid any production
challenges in the future and what sort of working capital levels
should we be thinking about?
Ingo Bank So I think first of all the increase in inventory was partially Opto
but it was also in SP and in SP basically we have had two
reasons why we consciously increased inventory above what we
normally have. One was that, as you know, there are some
electronic simple components like transistors, capacitors, etc,
out there that are here and there in scarcity so we made sure
that we have enough in inventory so that we can ensure delivery
with our automotive customers. That was one reason.
The other reason was that we had quite a number of new product
introductions in the second half of the year planned, in alignment
with the product roadmaps of our customers and for that we also
needed to ramp a little bit ahead of shipments in the second half
so that was one reason.
And for Opto I think it is fair to say that because we saw
somewhat of a lower revenue base in the second quarter we
obviously continue to produce because you know that based on
the order intake we have we will believe in a better second half.
Having said that, we will still of course make sure that we
manage our cashflow for the year properly so I would expect that
Opto will come somewhat down to normalised inventory levels
by the end of our fiscal year.
Alok Katre Yes, I mean, so when you say normalised should we be thinking
more like closer to 2017, closer to 2016? You know, just to give
us a sense of what you would sort of think of normal working
capital and inventory levels.
Ingo Bank I don't think we've ever said anything or disclosed anything about
working capital specifically to a business unit. We also kept the
free cashflow guidance for the year intact, as you've seen,
despite somewhat of a lower revenue base so from that
perspective, you know, I expect what we were able to do in terms
of days outstanding overall - if you look at net working capital by
the end of last year, we will also closely be ending the year on
the same level for the company.
Alok Katre Yes, okay, great. And then my last bit was just on the, you know,
planned JV with Continental. If you could just... You know,
obviously the adjusted margin target is 12 to 14 for the whole JV
but could you just sort of give us a sense of what or where you
see the profits today especially for the, let's say, the Continental
part that you would expect to consolidate? And then should we
think about this JV as more just or restricted to high-end sort of
smart lighting like a Matrix beam or so on or do you see this, you
know, there's enough scope within the context of the JV to
extend the offering even to perhaps, you know, mid-range cars,
you know, with its C segment or so on?
Andreas Spitzauer Let me start off with the profit question. Then I'll hand it over to
Olaf and Stefan to talk about the market perspective for the joint
venture. So the business that we bring into both parties includes
also of course a revenue base and the JV is of course an
investment case for us initially because you need to integrate
two parts of a company; we need to integrate part of Conti, part
of Osram so that will mean that there are some initial expense
we expect for IT and other things that you typically would expect
for, let's say, a joint company.
Of course we want to make sure that the strong R&D backbone
that we marry with Conti side and our side will be able to develop
new products for our customer base and it also means we will
have to up the R&D investment of the combined entity above
what is already spent singularly by both shareholders so that will
be an initial investment we will take as well.
And then we expect over the mid term that we will achieve those
targeted EBITDA ranges that Olaf indicated earlier on but now
let me hand it maybe to Stefan or Olaf to talk about the potential
we see from a market perspective.
Stefan Kampmann I think it's clear that we have not only targeted the high-end
applications and, let's say, the premium cars. We want to be an
innovation player, that's clear, but we have also, from the set-up
of this joint venture, the clear target to enter the volume segment
and I think both companies have a heritage of being a volume
player and our people have also a clear understanding that you
need volumes and you need to have the volume segment to be
profitable and stable.
And in the premium segment you can launch innovations but
then you have to scale it up to be capable also from a cost basis,
to be attractive in your pricing of the volume segment and that's
a clear target and the clear setting of the R&D and also of the
roadmaps of the companies which we are forming.
Alok Katre Okay, great, thanks.
Olaf Berlien Thanks, Katre.
Operator Next question is from the line of Lucie Carrier with Morgan
Stanley. Please go ahead.
Lucie Carrier Hi. Thank you, gentlemen, for taking my question. I have three;
I will go one at a time. The first one; I wanted to go back please
on the guidance for this year to understand also a bit better how
you're assessing the year and the dynamics because if I kind of
back out your 640 with the 325 million adjusted EBITDA you've
done in the first half it means that you're assuming pretty much
the second half of the year adjusted EBITDA contribution to be
stable or maybe even slightly down.
And I had a bit of a hard time to understand that considering
you're signalling that you expect, you know, much stronger auto
business in the second half, which is typically very high-margin
for you, and also as the FX headwind - if we take spot-spot FX -
should be kind of easing actually for you also in the fourth
quarter. So can you maybe explain, you know, a bit the dynamics
here on the guidance?
Olaf Berlien Okay. Hi, Lucie; it's Olaf. Ingo will talk about that.
Ingo Bank Bonjour, hi, Lucie. Yes, so obviously, as you know, from a
profitability perspective our after-market business in SB is
extremely important and that typically has its biggest profit
contribution in the first two quarters of any fiscal year and
therefore that won't change in this year as well so the second
half; we will see a lower contribution from that business given
the summer season as well.
Of course that will somewhat be compensated by the expected
improvement in the auto business of, let's say, Opto but overall
on balance - and as we said, we still have some challenges in
some of the lighting markets, luminaires markets in Europe and
the US. We said that the 640 is probably a good number to look
at.
On the foreign exchange, when we updated the guidance last
week we were updating it on the basis of 122. If you look at our
hedging, obviously we are hedged now for a little bit so even if
the spot rate today is at 199 or 120 that doesn't mean that that
materially will change our outlook for the year.
Lucie Carrier Okay, but just to come back maybe on the point on the after-
market business, I mean, the seasonality has always been the
case but previously you were guiding for a stronger second half
versus the first half. I mean, you had said second half 18 would
be - or like 18 would be more back-end-loaded. So I'm just not
sure I understand why the seasonality in SP after-market, you
know, makes a difference here.
Ingo Bank Well, you were asking in terms of profitability and I tried to
explain...
Lucie Carrier Yes, absolutely.
Ingo Bank Yes, and I tried to explain that the profitability in our after-market
business is very strong and therefore if the after-market business
overall is not so strong as it is in the first half obviously that has
an impact on the overall profitability and as I said, on the
opposite, we expect therefore an improvement in our LED
components business for Opto and if that improves and you
count the gains for [?] the after-market business it could possibly
be awash.
Lucie Carrier So what you're saying is the improvement you're expecting in the
non-after-market part versus your previous expectation is
actually a bit lower than what you had expected earlier in the
year.
Ingo Bank No, I don't think that's what I'm saying. I'm saying that if you look
at the guidance that we gave on the EBITDA - and your question
was, why is the absolute EBITDA probably the same in the
second half as in the first - I was trying to explain those
dynamics. That's the only answer I gave.
Lucie Carrier Sorry. It's just - it's more - the reason maybe why I'm not
understanding well is when you had guided initially for 2018 you
had guided for a second half to be stronger than the first half of
the year so you had said 18 would be back-end-loaded. I'm
assuming it was already taking into account the after-market
traditional seasonality and so considering now that the second
half is not looking to be stronger than the first half I'm just trying
to understand what has moved here.
Ingo Bank Well, okay, let me try it again. So the second - so if you look at
Osram historically the full year is never two times the first half; I
mean, that would be - you'd probably not find a year where that
was the case and that - I don't expect that will be different this
year.
Secondly when we talked about an improvement, originally we
were, as you will recall, predominantly we were talking about the
impact that Kulim might make on the revenue base and we still
expect an impact from - positive impact from Kulim in the second
half but you can imagine that, given the ramps and also the start-
up of that business, that that business right now is not
contributing to the profitability of the company. We are ramping
up R&D, we're building up a salesforce so I don't have a profit
contribution from this business at this point and that hasn't
changed either.
So therefore what I said before and what I said initially when I
gave guidance for 18 is still valid.
Lucie Carrier Okay. I wanted to come back also to kind of follow up on James'
question on Vixar. I mean, there are already, you know, quite a
lot of players in the VCSEL kind of market, fairly large players so
maybe to go back to what James was asking, what is really
maybe the difference of Vixar technology versus those existing
players'?
And also from the KEGR you're kind of providing on your slide, I
mean, I think you're implying over 1,000% KEGR per year
between 18 and 2022. You know, maybe can you clarify within
that overall sales KEGR how much you're expecting for volume
and which assumption of price you are taking.
Olaf Berlien Okay, yes, thanks, Lucie. I think the difference is - maybe to other
VCSEL companies is the following; the VCSEL technology itself;
it's a long-time technology, it's nothing new so the first VCSEL
technology is based 20 years ago. Osram was already in this
technology. We stopped that because there were no
applications.
Now in the meantime the VCSEL chip technology - light can be
used for facial recognition. This is a new trend, a new application
and in this case the combination of the VCSEL technology and
these applications, especially in these days for mobile phones,
are very interesting.
So Vixar has good IPs and as I said, we have a long-term relation
to Vixar so it's nothing that we started last week and as you
maybe know, we have a long-term tradition to mobile phone
producers as well so Osram is since years supplier to mobile
phone companies so I think the combination is unique. We have
the go-to-market with the technology of Vixar and, as I said, we
are working together on concrete projects.
I think that's different to the other VCSEL companies in the world
so in this case there's a concrete discussion with them and
concrete order and that makes me - of course if you have the
order you have it; if you don't have it you don't have it but I expect
that we get the design in and design win and for this reason I
expect a turnover up to 300 million.
Stefan Kampmann And, Lucie, I think the second aspect which makes us unique is,
as Olaf mentioned before, we see also applications in the future
in the automotive sector and as you know, it's a big barrier to
newcomers to go into an automotive market, not due to the basic
technology but due to the requirements of the application in
regards of quality, in regards of robustness. And I think Osram
with the experience in the automotive sector can really leverage,
take the technologies of Vixar and bring it into the automotive
market as a recognised supplier and a supplier with a big
heritage in automotive components.
Lucie Carrier I see, thank you. And the last one was just a follow-up also on
the share of wallet you had with some of your auto suppliers. You
did say that, you know, that share of wallet didn't go to Chinese
competitors but is that share of wallet - has it gone to your
historical, I would say, two other competitors in the market - ie,
Nishia or Lumiled - or has it gone to new competitors, maybe
other Japanese or South Korean one?
Olaf Berlien Usually I do not talk about my competitors by name in a
conference call so as you said, it seems to be that it moved to
one of them that you mentioned but no Chinese one.
Lucie Carrier Okay, thank you.
Operator Next question is from the line of Peter Olafson with Keppler
Chevreaux. Please go ahead.
Peter Olafson Good afternoon, gentlemen. Three questions from my side. The
first one is a follow-up on what you said on Kulim, on the
efficiency there. Back in January 2016 at the analyst day in
Munich you talked about the cost leadership of OS. To what
extent do you need to realise Kulim phase two to receive full-
scale effects and to achieve the targeted cost leadership or does
Kulim phase one on a stand-alone basis also have this cost
leadership structure already? And then I have two follow-ups
please.
Olaf Berlien As I said, really, always my competitor and competition is on the
line. What we have in Kulim is that we have a much more
productive machine concept that we original planned. With this
new machine concept we need less space in phase two for the
same number of wafer starts per week. That means in the
opposite, I can put - well, I will... able to produce more wafer
starts per week in phase one and with a little bit extension,
capacity extension - and that's not Kulim two, it will be, let me
call it, Kulim 1.5 - I will be able with less capex to produce the
same number of wafer starts per week as we proposed in 2016
so we would come to the number of wafer starts per week; as
we exposed, there's no change in our concept. The concept
change is that we need less space and have a higher
productivity in the space.
Peter Olafson Okay, that's helpful.
Olaf Berlien It's helpful? Thanks, Peter.
Peter Olafson Yes. Then second question relates to the same presentation
from January 2016 where you showed a slide with data from IHS
which suggested that the global supply/demand in the LED
industry would tighten in the coming years. However it seems
that a more recent forecast from IHS indicates that there will be
actually a situation where the oversupply might increase,
especially in 2019. So do you share that, the latest views by IHS
and to what extent would that affect your decision-making
around further expanding Kulim?
Olaf Berlien I'm not sure if I understood it correctly, Spitzauer, but it means...
Would you?
Andreas Spitzauer Yes, no, I think I understood it. So are you asking whether we
believe in the IHS numbers or not? I think what we've seen is,
you know, in the last couple of months or so a number of
announcements of players, some as we expected; others were
a bit of an interesting one. A lot of the announcements were not
just based on our technology but also moving into silicon
facilities so I think it's not fully clear yet how that will pan out.
I think some of the Chinese suppliers, even a couple of weeks
ago, postponed some MOCBD orders because they didn't see
the market developing so we're currently going through that.
Obviously our focus is right now on how we develop the market.
As Olaf said, we've found a way to probably increase the space
output, if you like, for our existing facility in Kulim and move more
equipment in there.
Compared to 16 we've said a number of times that we believe
that we can not just produce on the basis of sapphire-based
technology out of Kulim but we will also produce based on UH3,
delivering also into more premium segments. All of that is still the
case so from that perspective we haven't changed really our
plans right now.
And I think IHS is trying to make a sort of - sifting through all
these announcements and it's trying to make some predictions.
Obviously that's part of our normal business planning process,
that we will also look into this and see where this is going.
Olaf Berlien And I think we can clearly say, yes, we believe in the numbers of
IHF. We are watching carefully what is proposed for the future
but - and for this reason we are... carefully what we are doing
with our investment and as we said at the beginning, we watched
the demand and we saw that there's a huge demand on red and
for this reason we invested in Regensburg so in 2016 we thought
that maybe a higher demand - not we; IHS - a higher demand
maybe for sapphire. We said, okay, huge demand and UH3 and
for this reason again we invested in Regensburg and we will
come up with our factory in November 2018.
So overall, to make it clear, we still believe and we know that the
strategy and the investment in Kulim is right. We see that we are
ramping up, we have high utilisation and we put the right product
and utilisation in this factory to be effective and, as I said, we are
working on our machine concept, space concept, bring more
UH3, make it automotive, certified and so on and so on. So in
this case I hope really in the end we do not get so much
questions about Kulim in the future because I think this factory
is now online, we have the customer and that's the case.
Peter Olafson Okay, thank you. And then my third question relates to speciality
lighting, where you mentioned the shift from conventional to
LED-based headlamps. I assume that LED headlamps sell at
higher price points than xenon, for instance, so is it correct that
in the comparable sales growth of -0.8% in Q2 that there was
actually a positive ASP or mix effect in there?
Ingo Bank Well, generally speaking, LED-based front light solutions carry a
somewhat higher ASP; that is correct. But the reason for the
decline in the growth or slight decline of the growth of ASP in the
second quarter was that we saw a low-double-digit decline in our
traditional business so that's xenon as well as halogen and we
didn't see much growth in our LED components business
because of destocking.
Typically, you know, these are two sides of the same coin
because obviously if production growth continues you do see a
replacement from traditional into new technology, LED. Because
of the special destocking situation with us traditional continued
to see decline, as it did in previous quarters, and was not fully
compensated for growth. But I don't think it's anything to do with
real ASP changes or mix in that regard.
Peter Olafson No, okay, but there is a clear price difference between the
different technologies.
Ingo Bank Yes, there is a value difference indeed.
Peter Olafson Okay, thank you for that, thanks.
Operator So next question is from the line of Guenther Hollfelder with
Bader Helvia. Please go ahead.
Guenther Hollfelder Yes, thank you. Some follow-up questions; first one on the
impact of Kulim in the next fiscal year, especially - I mean, I
understand that you're replacing third-party LED dials going
forward so overall will you have a positive margin tailwind going
into the next year from this strategy?
Olaf Berlien It's for Ingo.
Ingo Bank So as I said, I think, when Lucie asked me earlier around general
lighting, that I do not expect at the end of this fiscal year that we
see our general lighting business coming out of Kulim in positive
profit territory because simply it's a normal situation; we're
ramping up production, we're ramping up R&D and the
salesforce and the revenue base is not big enough yet to cover
that so from that perspective I don't think you can assume, as
you call it, a positive tailwind at the end of this fiscal year.
As far as the contribution for next year is concerned I think it's a
bit too early to already talk about 19 in particular detail. I think
the most important take-away probably is that again we are
ramping up according to plan. We've asked the team to see what
we can do to get even more output from the existing space that
we have there, which points to the fact that we want to continue
to invest into capacity also next year.
We're not yet fully at scale, to come back to an earlier question,
and that scale level will be reached by a certain capacity that we
expect to over next year. That should also contribute from a
revenue perspective to the overall sales level for Opto. That's all
I want to say at this point in time and we will certainly talk more
about this when we give initial guidance for 19 later in the year.
Guenther Hollfelder And compared with the prices you are currently paying for the
third-party dials is there any target what you plan to achieve in
terms of cost reduction based on in-house production compared
to these prices?
Ingo Bank Well, obviously we know what the prices are that we buy wafers
in for today so obviously [inaudible 01:24:46] what these cost
targets are. But as I said, if you don't have full scale you can't
expect to be fully at those prices at this point in time.
From a cash perspective obviously it's much more attractive still
for us to do it in-house rather than paying somebody else to do
something that we can also do internally but we have a very good
team at general lighting in Opto. They'll know exactly what
market prices are, they know exactly, of course, what customers
are asking for and therefore there's no mistake as to what we
need to accomplish there from a cost perspective but it will take
some time but again that's nothing new and that's always been
a consideration.
Guenther Hollfelder Yes. And one question on the VCSEL sales of up to 300 million
next year; so I understand this is mainly depending on one major
design. When, in a smartphone - so I was just wondering what's
the timing, when will there be a decision regarding this design
win?
Olaf Berlien To make it clear, I never said next year; that would be really
fantastic but that's not true, that it's next year because that would
be 19. I understand that you could like to find out who is it but I
will not and I cannot talk about that. We have current projects
and customer already in Vixar and we are working on a bigger
one and that's really all what I can and will say in this case.
Guenther Hollfelder Okay, fair enough. And a last question on the lidar you
mentioned; you mentioned, I think, 20 design wins, I assume
with lasers, conventional lasers used in lidar systems. Any
indication about the size of your lidar-related laser business, for
example next year, what we can expect?
Olaf Berlien That's really a detailed number I do not want to give you. Sorry
for that but I think in lidar we are clearly, absolutely clearly the
market and the technology leader because really we are nearly
in most of the lidar systems in the world.
So I think it's a growing market and we are really well-positioned
in that and with 20 design wins - and check how many design
wins and In [?] has maybe some other ones - you will find out
that we have ten times more than some others.
Guenther Hollfelder Okay, many thanks, thank you.
Olaf Berlien Thank you.
Operator In the interest of time we have to stop the Q&A session now and
I hand back to Andreas Spitzauer for closing comments.
Andreas Spitzauer Thank you very much for your participation and we're looking
forward to working together with you in the next couple of weeks
and months. Thank you, bye.