The Relation between Agriculture and Climate Change:

Reducing the Vulnerability of the Agriculture Sector

Oscar RodasAsociación Guyra Paraguay (NGO)

Paraguay, South Américaoscar@guyra.org.py

Global emissions of GHG related to human activities

Deforestation (land use changes) and degradation Fossils fuels

In Paraguay in 2011 soy growers will require massive amount of fossils fuels to transport around 10,000,000 tons of soy bean at an equivalent of 1 truck transporting 20 tons in 1 trip (around 500,000 roundtrips!). Additional to by truck transportation internally in the country, fossils fuels are used to export the soy bean by boats using the Paraguay Parana rivers hydroways.

AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE: NEED TO CHANGE AN PERFECT VICIOUS CIRCLE

AGRICULTURE CONTRIBUTES TO CLIMATE CHANGE

CLIMATE CHANGE INCREASESVULNERABILITY OF AGRICULTURE

AGRICULTURAL FRONTIER EXPANSION IS BASED ON DEFORESTATION

AGRICULTURE REDUCES FOREST ECOSYSTEMS,

CLIMATE STABILIZATION, GLOBAL SERVICE

AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE: VIRTUOUS CIRCLE

AGRICULTURE CONTRIBUTES TO FIGHTING CLIMATE CHANGE

AGRICULTURAL VULNERABILITY IS REDUCED

AGRICULTURE BUSSINES EXPANSIONIS BASED ON SUSTAINABLE PRACTICES INCLUDING

FOREST AREA INCREMENT, PROTECTION AND RESTORATION

AGRICULTURE INCREASES:AGRO ECOSYSTEMS AND FOREST ECOSYSTEMS

CLIMATE STABILIZATION GLOBAL SERVICE

AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN LACAgriculture is in the broad sense critical for LAC.Agriculture tied to LAC physical resource base and natural assets.Especially in South American countries, a great part of GHGs come

from the agricultural sector.2007 IPCC Report:

– reduced yields in warmer environment (for temperate climate crops)

– growing incidence of heat waves– increased heat stress– wildfires– land degradation– crop damage– soil erosion,– heavy precipitation events– saltwater intrusion– soil salinization

The impacts of CC on agriculture are expected to be substantial: Natural resource base, livelihoods, economy, etc. Lack of plans for resource management strategies

– public and private investments– policy changes – future capacity to respond tochanges– Ccimate variability versus climate change

National Climate Change Downsclaing Climate Change Scenarios in Paraguay predict a greater frequency of extreme weather events related to CC.

AGRICULTURE AND LAND-USE CHANGE• DETER deforestation monitoring system from

Brazil report 1,920 hectares of deforestation in Amazonas Region, Brazil, between January and February in 2011.

• Asociacion Guyra Paraguay Great South American Chaco deforestation monitoring system reports 232,000 hectares deforested in this region (including portions of Argentina, Bolivia, Brasil and Paraguay ) in 2010. The deforestation rates in Paraguayan Chaco in 2011, is around 400 hectares per day.

• In general, in South America agriculture is related to exotic pastures implementation for cattle ranching (mainly to beef export business) and soy/sugar cane plantations.

AGRICULTURE AND LAND-USE CHANGE

Asociación Guyra Paraguay WWF Agrupación de Policía Ecológica y RuralAsunción – Paraguay - Junio de 2009

AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION

In terms of adaptation, a wide variety of strategies should be used in agriculture:– Response to climatic variability to benefit farmers– Knowledge about options to maintain production levels

and yields by farmers (crops, cattle, water use, etc.)– response to short-term climatic variations– long-term, planned adaptations to help anticipate and

minimize the effects• To balance agricultural expansion and ecosystems services

(especially forests providing climate stabilization services)• To create possitive incentives for private land owners,

especially ranchers and soy growers to preserve forest (In Paraguay the Enviromental Services Law 3001/06 is active from 2006, but still with few participants)

• In Brazil, a private sector initiative leaded by Soy Growers and Processors Group are implementing a system not to buy or commercialize soy products from deforestated areas in Amazonas

REDUCED VULNERABILITY MEANS INCREASED ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION CAPACITY AT THE SAME TIME!

What the regional needs are

• Climate information systems in place (Systems to enhance climate predictability)

• Water management technologies adopted (Improvements in water collection, drainage, irrigation distribution systems, maximize use of water in livestock production, etc.)

• Better integrated management of natural resources and production systems (this includes water management, conservation agriculture, crop and pasture rotations, adjustment of planting dates, etc.)

• Technological innovations to reduce climatic risks (biotechnology innovations to improve drought resistance and pests and disease resistance, invasive species, and improvements in irrigation infrastructure).

• Institutional innovations with capacity built for early warning systems for climate (improved policy and regulatory frameworks for water management, agricultural and catastrophic risk insurance, etc.).

• Bottom-up participatory processes for climate change adaptation and reduce threats to climate variability.

What can be done today to improve the management of climatic risks and improve the adaptation?

1. Identificate vulnerabilities and opportunities (with the agriculture sector)

2. Reduce uncertities (learn from the past, monitor the present and information for the future)

3. Identify technologies to reduce vulnerabilities (Diversify, store and efficient use of water, genetics, etc.)

4. Identify institutional architecture and policy interventions to reduce or transfer risks

• Systems for early alert and response systems • Insurance, recovery loans, etc. • Institutional arrangements & specific policies

CHALLENGES FOR AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE

• Inter and intra-institutional coordination for State policies

• Technologies available and duly tried to face mitigation and adaptation

• Technical capacity to face technological challenges

• Capacity to promote public-private coalitions

• Capacity to provide bottom-up capacity for understanding variability and be prepared to face it.

• Sustainability of actions

SOUTHERN SOUTH AMERICA ACTIONS RELATED TO DEFORESTATION

• Paraguay has a Zero Deforestation law (2004 to 2013) in the Oriental Region of the country.

• Argentina is implementing the federal forest law, giving the mandate to the provinces to design and implement land-use plans related to native forest defined by three categories (no restrictions to forest conversion, sustainable use areas and protected forest areas). A map with three colors: Green, yellow and red

AñoAño Tasa de Tasa de deforestacióndeforestación

1945-19601945-1960 123.000 123.000 ha/añoha/año

19701970 212.000 212.000 ha/añoha/año

19861986 289.000 289.000 ha/añoha/año19951995 113.000 113.000 ha/añoha/año19971997 85.000 85.000 ha/añoha/año20022002 110.000 110.000 ha/añoha/año20052005 20.000 20.000 ha/añoha/año20062006 6.400 6.400 ha/añoha/año20072007 5.600 5.600 ha/añoha/año20082008 9.503 9.503 ha/añoha/año20092009 1.894 1.894 ha/año (*)ha/año (*)4.112

NEW AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES AND TECHNOLOGIES AND CLIMATE CHANGE

• Zero tillage in soy and othes related crops is proposed by the agricultural sector as a mitigation option related to climate change.

• Paraguay, Brasil and Argentina are increasingly using Zero Tillage Agricultural Practices. Paraguay has 80% of the total soy crops under Zero Tillage. Paraguay soy plantation area is around 2.5 million hectares; it is the 4th global exporter of soybeans and the 10th exporter of beef products

AGRICULTURE, VULNERABILITY, REDD+ AND SOCIAL ISSUES

• Paraguay is still implementing the Agrarian Reform Proccess. 300,000 families of small farmers with an average of 10 hectares of land per family represent the main social factor of agriculture in Paraguay. The majority of the small farmers do not have any capacity for adaptation to climate change.

• Brazil and Bolivia have a similar situation of small farmers colonies as Paraguay.• Asociacion Guyra Paraguay already obtained a gold-level certification of CCBA

standard for a REDD+ pilot project involving small farmers’ settlements and are now going for the VCS standard certification. There is a potential of 3 million hectares to replicate the pilot project.

• In Southern South America, agricultural expansion is not only related to forest loss. Deforestation is affecting indigenous peoples’ territories.

AGRICULTURE, VULNERABILITY, REDD+ AND SOCIAL ISSUES

SOME GENERAL IDEAS TO EXPLORE• Zero Tillage with no forest preservation is not an option to fight climate change.• Agro Forestry systems have been explored as a climate change adaptation

option, especially for medium and small farms.• REDD+ including incentives related to payment for environmental services could

be applied to a wide range of situations in agriculture and agriculture frontier expansion situations (example: indigenous territories ).

• Alternative options, like binational hydroelectric enterprises paying for forest providing water services, have being tested to stabilize agriculture expansion over forests in rural municipalities near hydroelectric facilities watershed areas.