View
220
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Mar 08Mar 08 Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo 2
The Problem
Random collisions between man-made objects in earth orbit may some day initiate cascading collisions that will exponentially pollute these high-value orbits, rendering them exceedingly hazardous for space ventures.
As suggested by.: Collisional Cascading - The Limits of Population Growth in Low Earth Orbit, Kessler, Donald J., NASA Doc ID 19920036034, Adv. Space Res. Vol. 11, No. 12, pp. (12)63-(12)66, 1991
Mar 08Mar 08 Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo 3
Sampling of Prior Art
EVOLVE - one-dimensional, LEO-only, deterministic and stochastic environment evolution model with Monte Carlo processing (NASA)
LEGEND – Leo-to-Geo Environment Debris model, 3-dimensional (altitude, latitude, longitude) evolutionary model (NASA)
CHAINEE – PIB model for long-term LEO predictions based on traffic assumptions and mitigation measures (ESA)
SDM/STAT – like CHAINEE, based on modulation of background population (ESA)
PIB – particle in a box (1)
(1) for a description of PIB see: Analytic Model for orbital Debris Environmental Management, David L. Talent, Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, Vol. 29, No. 4, pp. 508-513, 1992
Mar 08Mar 08 Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo 4
NASA Orbital Debris Program Architecture
ORDEM Engineering
Model
Source: NASA 26 July 2006 Orbital Debris Environment Presentation to ISS Independent Safety Task Force
Mar 08Mar 08 Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo 5
Sources / Sinks
Satellites ~120 launches per year worldwide (but, emerging China, Japan and India space programs could inflate this figure; double it?) (1) (2)
Rocket Body Parts ~ 2-3 per launch (1)
Spontaneous Explosions, Fragmentations – 3% (6), 124 since 1961 (2)
Anti-Satellite Tests (ASAT) Soviet Union, at least 4 between 1968 and 1982 (3) (5)
USA, at least 1 in 1985 (Solwind) (4)
China, 1 in 2007
Space Warfare – none, yet
Random Collisions – 1 to date (Cerise, 1996, without explosion) (5)
Natural Decay – due to drag, also function of solar activity
DeOrbits and Retrievals – policy options
(1) Analytic Model for orbital Debris Environmental Management, David L. Talent, Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, Vol. 29, No. 4, pp. 508-513, 1992(2) Office of Science and Technology, Nov 1995 Interagency Report on Orbital Debris(3) http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/18/world/asia/18cnd-china.html?ex=1326776400&en=3f5fb4a065572bbb&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss(4) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-satellite_weapon(5) Survey of past on-orbit fragmentation events, Carmen Pardini, Acta Astronautica 56 (2005) 379-389(6) Future Planned Space Traffic: 1990-2010 and Beyond, Phillip D. Anz-Meador, AIAA/NASA/DOD Orbital Debris Conf., April 16-19, 1990, Baltimore MD
Mar 08Mar 08 Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo 6
Solar Flux
The SystemDEBRIS SOURCES
SPONTANEOUS EXPLOSIONS
COLLISIONS
Nations Vying for Space SuperiorityNation’s Technological Development
Nations Wanting Access to SpaceNew Space Programs
SATELLITE LAUNCHES
DECAY DEORBIT, RETRIEVAL
DEBRIS SINKS
ANTI-SATELLITE
TEST
ORBITAL SPACE DEBRIS POPULATION
Mar 08Mar 08 Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo 7
200000 Objects in LEO! [1cm or larger]
CNES/ill.D.DUCROS,1999 http://www.orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov/photogallery/beehives/LEO1280.jpg
Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee, 43rd Session
500000 by 2050 (1998 U.N. Committee on Peaceful Uses of Outer-Space prediction)
Mar 08Mar 08 Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo 8
Conceptual Model
1m 10 cm 1cm 1mm
Decay Block
Collision Block
c1 c2 c3 c4
w1 w1 w1 w1g1 g2 g3 g4
s1 s2 s3 s4
BreakupBlock
Holding Tanks
s1 s2 s3 s4 Exit
ASAT Input
New Satellites
Input
Solar Flux
SSN Catalog
est. of untrackable
objects
initialization
Mar 08Mar 08 Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo 9
Reference Behavior (measurement)
Number of Catalogued Space Objects (typically 4 in. or larger)200-300 / yr
Mar 08Mar 08 Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo 10
Reference Behavior (simulation)NASA EVOLVE PROJECTIONS
SOURCE: http://www.orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov/newsletter/pdfs/ODQNv10i2.pdf
Mar 08Mar 08 Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo 11
Preliminary Extend Model
USERINTERFACE
EXCELINTERFACE
LEVELS
PIB EQUATION
COEFFICIENTS
COUNTERS, PLOTTERS, AND CONSTANTS
Mar 08Mar 08 Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo 12
Particle In a Box Equation
debris sweep rate- a policy measure
temporary place-holder, suggesting dependence on
altitude
crude attempt to model modulating
effect of solar activity
orbit decay; crude and semi-
empirical
new objects; mostly policy-
driven
Mar 08Mar 08 Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo 14
Extend Deposition Sub-Model
Number of significant fragments generated per explosion (could be stochastic)
Mar 08Mar 08 Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo 15
Extend Removal Sub-Model
Extend – ExcelINTERFACE
Mar 08Mar 08 Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo 16
Extend Collisions Sub-Model
Number of significant fragments generated per collision (could be stochastic)
Mar 08Mar 08 Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo 17
Extend ◄► ExcelExtend Global Array Managers
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007
Mar 08Mar 08 Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo 19
4-Tier, 1-Species (to be implemented)
200-500 km 500-800 km 800-1500 km
1500-2000 km
Mar 08Mar 08 Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo 20
Critical Simplifying Assumptions
De-Orbit Algorithm – crude, based on average debris diameter, which is turn estimated a function of on-orbit mass, number of orbiting objects, and the simplifying assumption that objects are spherical and of uniform density.
Solar Flux Prediction – I assume a repeating 21 cycle; may be critical for longer-term predictions
Number of Pieces per explosion – 120, could be stochastic
Number of Fragments per collision – 200, could be stochastic
Mar 08Mar 08 Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo 21
Preliminary Extend Results (1957-2010)
Solar Activity (F10) and Orbital Decay (N_out)
Sol
ar
Act
ivity
(Ja
nsky
)
Dec
ay (
num
ber/
year
)
Simulation Year
Mar 08Mar 08 Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo 22
Preliminary Extend Results (1957-2010)
Significant Objects in Low Earth Orbit (N)
Simulation Year
Sig
nifi
can
t O
bje
cts
in L
EO
Mar 08Mar 08 Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo 23
Preliminary Extend Results (1957-2010)
Satellite Kill Rate (rough estimate)
Simulation Year
Col
lisio
n C
oef
ficie
nt (
C)
SA
T K
ill R
ate
(#/
yr)
Mar 08Mar 08 Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo 24
Preliminary Insights
Will Collisional Cascading Occur? - maybe, but I’m not seeing it yet (N tends to level out)
Policy and Design – they DO make a difference, for example - post-mission disposal of upper stages reduces N 20%- Doubling SAT density (packaging) reduces N 20%
Mar 08Mar 08 Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo 25
Forward Work
Validation – match reference behaviors; get/implement Kessler’s input
Sensitivity Analysis – screen for critical parameters and fine tune them
4-Tier, 1-Species Implementation – if time allows (for granularity)
Historical Satellite Database – link to database
Implement as a Discrete Event n-Tier, n-Species SimulationSimplify user Interface – using Extend Notebook
[NEAR-TERM]
[LONG-TERM]
Mar 08Mar 08 Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo 26
Summary
Simulation of orbital accumulation:Inspired by 1991 paper describing idea of Collisional Cascading – AKA The Kessler Syndrome
Resources, Reference Behaviors: Extend6 Simulation Development EnvironmentSSN Catalog; published historical trends; loads of studies and
published papers; Don Kessler
Implementation:Particle-in-a-Box Continuous Simulation ModelExtend◄►Excel; User “Policy” Interface
Potential Benefits, and Lessons to be Learned:Dynamics of orbital crowdingConditions for Collisional CascadingSpace as a Sustainable Resource
Mar 08Mar 08 Collisional Cascading - T. Di Carlo 27
Publications and Resources
(1) Collisional cascading - The Limits of Population Growth in Low Earth Orbit, Kessler, Donald J., NASA Doc ID 19920036034(2) Littered Skies, NYTimes.com, 6 Feb 2007, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/06/science/20070206_ORBIT_GRAPHIC.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin(3) Overview of Orbital Space Debris, IPS Radio and Space Services, www.ips.gov.au/Educational/4/2/1(4) Space Simulation and Modeling - Roles and Applications Throughout the System Life Cycle, Larry B. Rainey editor, The Aerospace Press, El Segundo CA, 2002(5) Simulation Model of Space Station Operations in the Space Debris Environment, Mark M. Mekaru and Brian M. Waechter, Proceedings of the 1985 Winter Simulation Conference(6) Collisions of Artificial Earth Orbiting Bodies, L. Sehnal and L. Pospisilova, Publishing House of the Czechoslovak Academy of Sciences, 18 Nov 1980(7) Orbital Debris Environment Resulting from Future Activities in Space, Shin-Yi Su, Center for Space and Remote Sensing Research and the Department of Atmospheric Physics, National Central University, Chung-Li, P.R.C., Taiwan, 23 Oct 2002(8) The New NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, NASA/TP—2002-210780, May 2002 ORDEM2000www.orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov/library/ORDEM/ORDEM2K.pdf